Bits Bucket for January 30, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Kr8tur
I am saving my cash flow and building my reserves. Please let me know when it’s time to buy.
It’s time to sell, or long since past time to sell for you. Please disclose your losses.
Mr. T: Prediction? Pain.
It was a simple request: please let me know when you think it is a good time to buy!
It was a simple request: Disclose your losses.
Lemming! Go buy some more houses before they go up again and you miss out on a historic opportunity. Go on, be a winner!
‘Opportunity’ - that was 2010 to 2011, try to keep up.
“Housing ALWAYS goes up” for a RE shill- please try to maintain the meme.
“You see…. The price floor for housing is far lower than the price floor reached in 2010″
Exactly.
You’re saving $250/month in cash flow on like a 2.5MM investment though, right?
It that was the math, I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone claiming it was a good investment (even the most bullish on home prices). A 0.1% cash return is ridiculously low, bordering on absurd. You could do 25x as well buying EQR, and I think you’d be overpaying for EQR today…So, what you suggest would be 25x worse than a bad stock market investment, pretty hard to do.
Well Rental_Fraud… That’s what houses are. Rapidly depreciating assets that never pay you back.
$50k/year on $400k invested. The cash flow grows every year.
You’re a degenerate gambler Jingle_Fraud.
No Obama = NOBAMA
Breaking news… it’s gonna be Jeb
NO MORE BUSH!
Tsipras’ “open letter” to Germans - “The Truth You Were Never Told About Greece” - explaining how Greeks did not want and could not afford to pay back the massive new loans the EU forced on them in 2010, but the banksters’ greed and their own establishment political elites’ complicity made the result a foregone conclusion. If only we had politicians this lucid in laying out the case against international predatory finance and crony capitalism.
http://syriza.net.gr/index.php/en/pressroom/253-open-letter-to-the-german-readers-that-which-you-were-never-told-about-greece
Amen, brothah! US politicians are still busily at work doing in their constituents.
This is what their sheep-constituents voted for. This is what they deserve.
Its historic times we live in. Normally would agree with the German position but the Financial System that is running the world right now needs to be reigned in. If it means some big banks fail so be it! Crank up the printing presses…….monetize all the debt but let the banks fail and their crony capitalist executives.
We clearly enjoy living in a banker’s paradise on Earth. God’s plan…
Amen.
If I understand this correctly, Greece should have done what Iceland did, declare BK, and let the banks eat it. The EU pre-empted that by forcing the equivalent of a loan consolidation with harsh terms. All that did was put the Greeks out of business to where they couldn’t pay back the original debt anyway… is that what happened?
I note that Tsipras is very specific about the problem but offers only words as solutions, like “stabilization” and “opportunity.” What is he specifically planning to do?
The EU pre-empted that by forcing the equivalent of a loan consolidation with harsh terms.
More like a pay-day loan…
He is planning, methinks, on a Grexit.
There it is.
Is there any interest on here for some over priced stocks and homes? I’m looking to unload some sh@tty assets on some greater fools.
What happened to my friend dan?
Hold on to you junk. Yellin will buy everything from you.
Cash for Bunkers
Sacramento, CA List Prices Crater 12% In 2014; Plunge 26% QoQ
http://www.zillow.com/sacramento-ca/home-values/
u need to hit the bid in rio linda ca. They are built out, not making anymore land.
Oh my word…
Rio Linda, CA List Prices Plummet 15% QoQ
http://www.zillow.com/rio-linda-ca/home-values/
RIP, American dream.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/30/the-american-dream-dissipates-at-record-pace/
The housing market has been healed by the Fed’s bold actions, we’re told incessantly. We’re also told that the Fed is still keeping an eye on it because it might not be healed enough. Prices have soared over the last three years, and in some cities, like San Francisco, they have soared far beyond the prior crazy bubble peak. So we admit grudgingly that the Fed’s six-year money-printing and interest-rate-repression campaign, designed to inflate every asset price in sight even to absurdity, has worked.
However, an essential element in a healthy housing market – people who actually live in homes they own – has been dissipating. The homeownership rate peaked in 2004 at 69.2%. It was during the prior housing bubble. Speculative buying drove up prices beyond the reach of many potential buyers. But an industry that knew no scruples helped and lured folks into homes and mortgages they couldn’t afford and would never be able to pay for.
Why do u think the speculators unwound their oil bets so fast?
Seems like everyone ran for the exits at once.
Which asset class is next?
Do you think gpro is a sound investment?
People seem to have some real brass b@lls in this market.
Foreign buyers of US RE are doing pretty good with the dollar way up.
Will they bail when the dollar peaks and starts down ? Hot money investing look around see what its done to other places not pretty.
The American dream dissipated long before the housing bubble. The American dream is about going to 4-year college, getting a $60K job, buying a $150K house, and staying put for at least 10 years.
Can’t do any of that without the 10-year $60K job — or at least, a job market where you can find a new job in the same metro within 4-5 months. That’s all gone.
Houses aren’t $150k Donk.
That is more or less what I did in 1997 and it worked out well, sold 10 years later…but I (correctly) figured I had job security at the time, no way would I have bought otherwise. I read about all the hand wringing concerning “millennials” not buying and that has to be the cause of a lot of it, from what I’ve heard few feel that they have job security so even if they are making good money it would be foolish to buy for many.
When did college become a part of the dream? I thought it was just all about having freedom and being secure.
Everyone has his or her own dream. However, it appears that most American parents want their kids to go to college.
When.. probably around the time of the GI bill. There were few enough college grads that a degree was an automatic ticket to a real job. Now it’s a ticket to a job at Applebees.
The American dream was over with in 1989. The endless wars masked it over. The only people to prosper were folks like me in the department of defense and the private defense industry. Most people outside defense suffered. The middle class declined the last 25 years.
At the expense of the rest of American society.
What Dwight D. Eisenhower said in his farewell speech in 1961. What General Smedley Butler said decades before: War is a racket.
It’s going to take some mainstream politician who actually “has a pair” to repeat the sayings of Eisenhower and Butler.
And the kicker is, all those libs and progressives who want more socialism kept voting for more work for me and more money for me. They voted twice for Bammy. Twice for Clinton.
I will be rude and not thank them.
But I made enough off of those libs and progressives. I did not leave defense work because of them. I left because of the betrayal I saw by the government against the U.S. constitution. Ed Sno&den did the same - leave. Michael Sheurer did the same - leave.
Vincent Foster was murdered
And he may not have been the only one. Various websites carry articles on the Clinton body count. This is one of them. Although I do think JFK, Jr. is a stretch. However, it is true that he could have been competition for the Senate seat that Hillary occupied.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/RANCHO/POLITICS/BODIES.html
Many of the millenials and gen Xers I know are starry eyed with delusion about Hillary becoming the “first woman president”
It’s just as bad if not worse as the white guilt complex that elected King Obama twice
are millenials the next bagholders?
I read they were investing in facebook and twitter to pay for college, lmfao.
“elected King Obama” …
Does not compute.
Vince Foster was murdered.
What about the man in the van?
“Vince Foster was murdered.”
Expendable. Cut the family a check. Done.
Now back to that helmet polishing.
Somehow I knew it wouldn’t take RJ long to dumb down the posts today.
Republicans bad, Democrats doubleplusgood, got it
Your right wing conspiracy theories are not non-partisan. Maybe you should try laying off the Breitbart.com heroin for a while.
Andrew Breitbart was murdered by the Obama administration
And Sharyl Attkisson is next
Forward
Dman:
RJ is making fun of everyone’s position on the blog. He does it to everyone. He needles me for being a feminazi, for instance. I haven’t figured out exactly why he does this, but I’m pretty sure it’s for entertainment.
Disclaimer: This comment was not made by real journalists.
Dman you do realize that “real journalists” is the HBB quote-n-mock court jester?
Also murdered: The head of the US Chamber of Commerce under Clinton in the Clinton era. Got a new hole in his head in an airliner over Bosnia in the 90s.
Also murdered:
Yup. What a phony sleazeball.
Bill Clinton Caught Fake Crying at Funeral of Ron Brown,”His Money Man!”
Yes thanks. Ron Brown.
You folks need to hit the bid today!
“It is simply a groupthink posse of spineless cowards who are petrified of a Wall Street hissy fit—–and are therefore willing to dispense whatever spurious word clouds they judge may be necessary to keep the gamblers hitting the “bid” until the next meeting.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/fed-statement-not-dovish-not-hawkish-just-gibberish/
Saw this one early this morning in the local news:
http://www.mynews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/1/29/ocoee_squatting.html
Favorite parts:
“A couple was arrested earlier this month and charged with child neglect after police found them living in squalor in a home they didn’t own or rent.
Eboni Tucker-Smith and Daquan Smith were squatting in a home in a nice Ocoee neighborhood for months, and they could have continued living there if they weren’t living in filth.
Because six children were also living in the home, Ocoee police were forced to come in and arrest the couple.”
“…In Eboni’s situation, we have a bank that’s basically saying we are not going to foreclose on this house,” said Lt. Mike Bryant, of the Ocoee Police Department. “Then we have the owners, and the owners are saying, ‘I don’t want this,’ so she picked the right house at the right time.”
“…The problem has become so widespread in the city of Ocoee that officials passed an ordinance to deal with squatting.
As soon as a home goes into foreclosure, the city assigns responsibility to the bank to keep the home up. The bank is fined if the home falls into disrepair, but many counties and cities don’t have a similar ordinance.”
The only way banks will get serious about offloading zombie houses with non-performing loans will be if local municipalities starting nailing them with major fines and other penalties with real teeth. Let’s finally clean out the massive amount of toxic waste that has built up in the system, and give couples just starting out a shot at a home at a reasonable price.
I’m with you, but one upshot of this article is that, while Ocoee had an ordinance regarding upkeep of foreclosures by banks, the bank sidestepped it by refusing to foreclose. The last ‘owner of record’ sidestepped responsibility by not making payments and walking away. Since there was no responsible or “injured” party to complain, these squatters can legally return to living in the house after they make bail. Sweet, huh?
Municipalities need to pin the rose on the banks and force them to take responsibility by levying prohibitive fines. FBs who walk away also need to take the hit on their taxes so they will pay a cost for their irresponsibility.
+1k
But if the issue of who owes the bills ever goes to court, it’s the owners who are going to have a judgment entered against them, because it’s still their house. There’s a reason banks have in-house lawyers.
bankers need a haircut!
Funny how people stiff the banks in a heartbeat.
But make SURE the property taxes are paid.
Why?
Because a pubic union goon will take your house and sell it at auction in a heart beat for non payment of property taxes. There are pensions to be paid!
There is no TARP, HAMP, modifications, reductions, etc. for property taxes.
You pay it or lose your house quick.
So guess what - even deadbeats who have not paid their mortgage in 6 years make sure the property taxes get paid.
Banks make sure the property taxes get paid on zombie houses get paid too.
So, if taxes are current then the party who paid them is the de facto and de jure “responsible party”? Makes sense to me! Lets get the lawsuits going!
2B, who do you think fixes the traffic lights, fills the potholes, and makes sure your drinking water doesn’t have feces floating in it? Do you think little elves come out at night and do all those things? Or do you think the people who do those jobs should just work for free?
2B, who do you think fixes the traffic lights, fills the potholes, and makes sure your drinking water doesn’t have feces floating in it? Do you think little elves come out at night and do all those things? Or do you think the people who do those jobs should just work for free?
Or maybe we can get people to do these jobs who would be happy with 401Ks and to pay something for their healthcare.
Instead the choice is bankruptcy for towns/counties/states to afford the insane public union pensions. And property taxes that bankrupt the citizens who pay their salaries.
Why? Because public unions are the top money contributors in politics and no democrat is going to be elected without them.
Got MERS?!!
Scripting a narrative
This is the top story on the Drudge Report linked at the top left above the bolded headline
http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/29/politics/bergdahl-swap-prisoner-militant-activity/index.html
The only solution to this is another trillion dollar war
Every teabilly child needs to enlist TODAY to go fight and die for this
Because “shrinking the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub” = borrowing another trillion dollars from China to go fight a war for Israel so the slack jawed, knuckle dragging, mouth breathing, Christian Zionists can get Raptured five minutes sooner
Forward
Another Drudge link titled “Obama’s Israel Problem”
http://m.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-s-israel-problem_830240.html
Ask yourself who the f*** is William Kristol?
Who is paying him?
American taxpayers and voters, always always always remember the bravery and sacrifice of the Israeli Defense Forces for putting their “boots on the ground” in the first Iraq, Afghanistan, and second Iraq wars
America couldn’t have done it without you
Hope and Change!
—————
Squatters In ‘Abandonminiums’ Slow Detroit’s Plan To Bulldoze Way To Prosperity
CBS Local | 1/29/15 | Corey Williams
DETROIT (AP) – Chris Mathews’ crew showed up this month to demolish one of the thousands of vacant homes destined for demolition as part of Detroit’s grand plan to bulldoze its way to prosperity when a call from his office stopped them in their tracks: Someone was living there.
A middle-aged woman who watched the crew tear away the home’s warped wooden steps the day before had called their company, Adamo Demolition, to point out she was living on the second floor, despite no power, heat or gas and a flooded basement.
“It was like a swimming pool. We would never have thought anybody was upstairs,” said Mathews, noting that the incident cost his crew time because the demolition wasn’t called off until after they had shown up with their equipment.
Chris Mathews’ crew showed up this month to demolish one of the thousands of vacant
I guess this isn’t Obama’s leg-humper from CNN. Too bad, doing honest work for a change in the real economy might cool his gushing adoration for The One.
What happens when liberals/progressives run out of other people’s money.
They shoot the protestors.
————–
Venezuelan Army Can Shoot Protesters, Effective Immediately
Emerging Equity | January 30, 2015 | Sabrina Martín
An internal ruling made by the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense, published on Tuesday, January 27, in state newsletter Gaceta Oficial, legalizes the use of lethal weapons by the national armed forces (FANB) against protesters.
Criminalization of a Right
Hermida raised further concerns about the scope for interpretation contained within the Defense Ministry’s ruling that lethal force could be used to “support the legitimately constituted authority.” For the Provea activist, protests by their essence are a complaint against the authorities, meaning that any demonstration against the government could be dispersed with live ammunition.
You should support Lindsey Graham for president and then we’ll never have socialist problems like that here in USA
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/01/18/lindsey-graham-president-testing-waters/
John McCain’s lapdog as well as a Wall Street fluffer, a neo-con stooge, an open borders/amnesty proponent. No thanks.
Yes!
In order to save the children sometimes drastic measures must be taken!
Temporarily, of course.
Socialism, tyranny, guns and freedom. Watch and learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVK0yZAhBKM&spfreload=10
This is what happens when corrupt socialist dictatorships run out of other people’s money. They resort to force and coersion. Too bad Venezuelans don’t have a Second Amendment - and if Comrads Pelosi, Boxer, Feinstein, Bloomberg, etc. get their way, we won’t either.
The only reason socialism doesn’t work is because the right people are not in charge.
It will be different in America! We will have the right people in charge!
Lakewood, WA Sale Prices Dive 6% YoY As Price Declines Ramp Up Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/lakewood-wa/home-values/
Futures way down this morning, after yesterday’s “hopium” spike upward due to Yellen “confiding” in a private Democrat confab that she would not raise interest rates “immediately.” By June at the latest this succubus is going to be waving her QE bazooka around and shrieking increasingly shrill threats about flooding markets with more trillions in debased printing-press fiat currency.
Rates have been zero for like 75 months and people are still out of work.
All this does is keep the casino open for wall street.
Its like hot potato with stocks. Remember what happened when they ran out of buyers in the the last housing bust?
People start to care about the real worth of their asset. As long as prices are going up they think they can dump it on the next greater fool.
It’s the only string to pull.
You hear that Mr. Anderson?… That is the sound of inevitability.
————————–
ConocoPhillips tells employees to expect layoffs
Fuel Fix | January 29, 2015 | Robert Grattan
HOUSTON — ConocoPhillips has told its employees layoffs could be on the way, as the independent producer looks to reign in spending amid lower crude prices.
The layoffs and an accompanying pay freeze will supplement cost-control steps the Houston company has already taken, such as slashing its exploration and production budget, Daren Beaudo, a spokesman for ConocoPhillips, said in an emailed statement.
Earlier Thursday, ConocoPhillips reported a fourth-quarter 2014 loss of $39 million, thanks both one-time expenses and falling crude prices.
The one-time charges included $381 million in asset writedowns and a $545 million charge incurred as the company unwinds its stake in Freeport LNG. After adjusting to exclude those items and other smaller ones, the producer reported a net income of $742 million, or about 60 cents per share.
ConocoPhillips said in mid-January it would let go of 230 jobs across the U.K., including at its main office in Scotland by March. A number of other oil and gas companies have also announced steep cuts to their workforces.
The company said earlier Thursday it would slash its capital spending budget a second time to $11.5 billion, now down about one-third from 2014.
“The dividend remained our top priority for capital allocation,” Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO, said in a statement. “The next highest priority remains getting to cash flow neutrality in 2017. With these priorities in mind, we’re going to use our capital and our balance sheet flexibility to manage through this downturn.”
“balance sheet flexibility” = BOHICA
Bahahahaha … “balance sheet flexibility” sounds like a term that great economist and financial adviser David Lereah would come up with.
I think I’ll steal it, add it to my Janis Joplin Freedom Plan (aka my What Have You Got To Lose? plan).
Just another day in the Obama recovery
That’s why you need to rally your bagger buddies and elect Palin so we can drill baby drill our way back to prosperity
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/01/28/mccain-palin-would-do-great-as-presidential-candidate/
“Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran”
But it would be historic to have the first woman president!
http://www.styleite.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/3.jpg
Calm yo self there Real J. - you sound like you are ready to explode there man!!!
I wonder how much of a salary cut that CEO is taking now that his company is laying off workers and losing money?
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Mr. Ryan M. Lance , 53
Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and Chairman of Exec. Committee 7.27M
Middle class families on thin ice. Go on voting for the Republicrat status quo, sheeple, and see where it gets you.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/29/news/economy/middle-class-financial-families/index.html
A work at art, a process that is done one dotted-line at a time …
“The typical middle-class American family is not prepared for a major financial shock.”
Dumb ‘em down, and prosper …
“This family could only replace 21 days of income with readily accessible funds, leaving it on financial thin ice in case of an emergency, according to a new report from Pew’s financial security and mobility project. Those funds include cash on hand or in savings and checking accounts.”
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA … people are smart.
My Koch Brothers action figures can beat up your George Soros and Tom Steyer action figures
And remember kidz, America isn’t a country, it’s a game
America is also a shopping mall, now partially online.
Don’t worry!
Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can fix this!!!
Shrinking the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub, one war at a time
Yeah… small government and unregulated big business… trickle down will finally start working! Can’t have paradise unless the polluters can pollute! Sell off the National Parks, let’s turn them into open pit mines! A tiny gummint and no regulations will create that shining city on a hill…
Yes - because cutting one government program by even 1% = America turns in Somalia
A question I always ask liberals (who never answer it).
You are given $100,000 but you use it for your retirement.
Do you:
1. Give it to the government for your Social Security “Lock Box?”
2. Put it in your own IRA, in your own name and invest it as you see fit.
Play jeopardy thinking music now…
There’s a problem with your question: You’re giving them something which is exactly what they want. Something for nothing.
There are other problems with the question. For example, the Social Security Administration probably doesn’t allow people to just send them contributions in that way.
The correct answer is #1 for YOUR money and #2 for my money.
Same as it ever was….
For example, the Social Security Administration probably doesn’t allow people to just send them contributions in that way.
I am sure if there’s a strong desire, laws can be changed.
I’m with Mighty Mike. The question is unanswerable as posed.
Of course the question is unanswerable as posed. It’s a deliberate setup to bring out the old “I want to opt out of SS” argument.
Sure you do. And the moment that people opt out, they will have more money in their pockets. Then the gas/grocery/health insurance/car/kid-college will be right there to raise prices on you. Which you pay, because you can’t not pay, and you more money in your pocket. After a few years, even the most disciplined won’t have any money left to invest, even if they wanted to.
We already know what will happen, because we already had something like a two-year opt-out from SS when Obama declared the SS tax holiday which raised people’s paychecks. Did people say: “oh good, now I have the option to put those extra dollars in an IRA just like I always wanted.” … or did they have to spend it on food and gas. You get one guess. And when the holiday was over, did people say “oh well, now it goes back to SS instead of IRA, it was a nice experiment.” Hell no. By then, the cost of living had swallowed up those extra dollars, and Obama took a hit — as usual — for “raising taxes.”
So don’t give me crap about SS opt-out.
Right because only your view could be right and only your opinion is what will happen.. sure oxide… everything but your view is “crap”
SS-opt out might benefit some and hurt others.. At least acknowledge reality..
Isn’t it strange that the only ones that don’t want SS opt-out are those that don’t have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out.
Of course the question is unanswerable as posed. It’s a deliberate setup to bring out the old “I want to opt out of SS” argument.
This is all in your mind. It’s a simple question that you can’t answer because you’re exactly what he says you are. The fact that the question cannot make sense alone, as it stands, in your mind proves his point. You think there must be some ulterior motive. Your mind is logically twisted and his straight question appears twisted when fit into your mind. In the twisted mind, twisted ideas seem straight. It’s a simple, direct question.
Sure you do. And the moment that people opt out, they will have more money in their pockets. Then the gas/grocery/health insurance/car/kid-college will be right there to raise prices on you.
Moar LOL. I bet you think “free” community college, “free” health care and other “free” programs are great though, right? Or do all of these “free” things make people have more money in their pockets, causing the gas/grocery/health insurance/car/kid-college to be right there to raise prices on them?
When the corporate slave masters are lashing 2B’s back, he’ll be the thank you sir may I have another guy.
Go look at my post on Venezuela.
It is not Coke or Pepsi that have orders to “shoot to kill” protestors.
It is bigger and bigger and government.
Who do you think Government is protecting from the protesters?
You got that right! Pepsi and Coke.
“Who do you think Government is protecting from the protesters?
You got that right! Pepsi and Coke.”
the problem isn’t which business the government is protecting. the problem is that the government is using UNCONSTITUTIONAL POWER to protect them from competition. no business should have protection from competition, either from government or anywhere else. if one of them goes out of business, too bad. something else will take its place. (in a free market)
“Get what you can get now for your house because it’s going to be much less later for years to come.”
With the way prices are diving, you’re right.
The Mexican Peso is tumbling this morning. Comrad Pelosi might get an accelerated timeline for her permanent Democrat supermajority. Forward, Soviet!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/mexican-peso-collapsing
Where to go on vacation with the strong dollar?
NOT Switzerland!
Mexico or Europe or Ukraine????
CraterRage® Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/lbJhSK
You know you want some of this
http://www.picpaste.com/tmp_IMG_20150130_081703_4801343981488-8sziuWJA.jpg
They look delicious Potsy.
This is much better.
http://goo.gl/UVs5mO
“You know you want some of this”
Honestly all that white-flour and sugar just turns me off.
Did you sell your Treasurys too early?
Did you sell your Treasurys too early?’
Hot money is bidding them way up and rates way down. So we can borrow real cheap like Greece used to be able to.
Hot money needs a safe haven after exploding the third world with cheap money to drill oil and extract minerals.
Once the dollar peaks, and it could really peak, then what ?
How low can it go?!
Bond Report
10-year Treasury yields see biggest one-month drop since mid-2011
Published: Jan 30, 2015 4:59 p.m. ET
30-year yield hits all-time low
U.S. economic growth was less than expected during the fourth quarter, driving money into Treasurys.
By Joseph Adinolfi
News editor
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond recorded its largest one-month decline since mid-2011, as the flow of money into bonds continued on Friday.
Typical end-of-the-month buying to match adjustments to durations in benchmark indexes combined with a weaker-than-expected reading on U.S. economic growth compressed yields. European deflationary worries also weighed on yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury (TMUBMUSD10Y, -6.21%) slid eight basis points Friday to 1.673%, according to Tradeweb, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury hit an all-time low, down 7.5 basis points to 2.243%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
The 10-year yield tumbled 13.5 basis points over the week, the fourth full-week drop in the last five. It plunged 49.4 basis points over January, the steepest one-month drop since August 2011, when yields plummeted 58.8 basis points.
Treasury yields have been pushing lower since the new year began, as negative yields in Europe and worries about the global economy sinking into deflation increase the appeal of U.S. debt as a haven for investors.
On Friday, those worries included the U.S. economy. Gross domestic product expanded 2.6% in the fourth quarter, down from 5% in the third quarter, according to a preliminary government estimate released by the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted 3.2% growth.
That followed a provisional reading on the eurozone’s rate of inflation that showed it slipped further into negative territory in January, accentuating investors’ fears about deflation. The yield on the German 10-year bund (TMBMKDE-10Y, -16.81%) closed 5.5 basis points lower to 0.301%, its lowest-ever closing yield.
The yield on the 10-year gilt — the United Kingdom’s 10-year bond — also closed at its lowest level ever. It finished at 1.330%, down 9.1 basis points from Thursday’s close.
“There’s really no reason to sell bonds unless you think the [U.S.] jobs number next week is going to be very robust,” said Tom di Galoma, head of rates and credit trading at ED & F Man Capital Markets.
…
“Did you sell your Treasurys too early?”
Been waiting for deflation to make them more valuable.
The REAL war on women.
And yes kiddies - there are all democrats in the bluest of blue states.
It sure must be great to pay victims to be quiet with taxpayer dollars!
————————–
ments.
SILVER GAVE HORNDOGS FREE REIN
NYPOST.COM | 1/30/15 | ANDREA PEYSER
For decades, Speaker Silver orchestrated payoffs to women victims…..in 2013 a special prosecutor, wrote that Silver virtually created Albany’s sexual cesspool, covering-up for himself and for Albany sleazebags. Despite laws meant to curb Albany’s testosterone cases, nothing much has changed. Albany remains a sexual sewer. After demonstrating the survival skills of a cockroach, Silver was finally arrested on federal charges of fraud, conspiracy and extortion, of lining his pockets with $4M in kickbacks and bribes.
An aide to then-Manhattan Assemblyman Mark Alan Siegel, after rebuffing his sexual advances, was paid $85,000 tax dollars by Silver to settle civil lawsuits against the Assembly and Siegel.
Silver’s top aide and legal counsel, J. Michael Boxley, was accused of date rape several times. Pressured by Silver not to go to the police, an internal Assembly investigation led to dismissal of the victim’s allegations.
Two years later, Boxley was hauled off in handcuffs, accused of raping a second 22-year-old staffer. He pleaded guilty to a wrist-slap misdemeanor sexual-misconduct count, registered as a sex offender, was sentenced to six years’ probation. “Mr. Boxley has no comment,” said Steven Greenberg, spox for Brown & Weinraub, the Albany firm which employs Boxley as a lobbyist.
Another Boxley victim was paid $507,500 by Silver, almost all of it tax dollars, to settle a civil lawsuit against Boxley and Silver.
Silver paid $103,080 tax dollars to two victims of serial groper ex-Assem Vito Lopez. Facing expulsion, Lopez stepped down from his Brooklyn Assembly seat.
And a vote for Hillary is a vote for feminism
Because turning a blind eye on Bill’s cheating for DECADES = strong, empowered, lean in and smash the patriarchy, LOLZ
Public unions.
At least they are the top money contributors in politics,
And give all that money to democrats.
——————–
State Takes Over Arkansas School District That Had To Make Teachers Wear Underwear
Daily Caller | Eric O
In August 2013, the district announced — to the great dismay of the teachers union — a dress code that would require teachers to wear underwear. Every single day. Female teachers would have to wear bras, too. And the very worst of all: No spandex. (RELATED: Little Rock School District Will Now Make Teachers Wear Underwear)
Now, a mere 18 months later, the Arkansas Department of Education has voted to assume control over management of the school district, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports.
Questions, I have questions. Is Keystone XL still viable with oil below $50? Even if Obama caves and signs the Senate’s bill, will Keystone’s financiers continue to back the project? Assuming they have any money left…
Since it is going to take about 10 years to build - the answer is where do you see the price of oil in 10 years?
Hey, you can’t answer a question with a question
Ten years… eh, too many variables.
Bigger and bigger government with higher and higher taxes….
Leads to
Crime
Black markets
Eric Garner
PS - The same thing is going to happen to “legal” pot too
————
Unintended Consequence of High Cigarette Taxes
Michigan Capitol Confidential | 1/28/2015 | Michael LaFaive
News reports today tell of a Macomb County tobacco store burglary by four men who stole cigarettes and escaped capture after a police chase. This unlawful behavior is a direct and unintended consequence of the high excise taxes imposed on Michigan cigarettes ($2 per pack) statewide.
There are other unintended consequences too. Mackinac Center analysts estimate that 25 percent of all the cigarettes consumed in the Great Lake State in 2013 were smuggled in from other states. Revenue losses to the treasury from smuggling total $298 million.
High tobacco taxes lead to violence against police, property and people in addition to smuggling.
In late 2013, police officers in Warren had to shoot smoke shop thieves as they attempted to make their getaway with $10,000 worth of tobacco merchandise. “It happens all the time” one police officer said. She said tobacco stores are “targeted.” Wholesalers are sometimes targeted too.
The reason they are targeted is that thieves know cigarettes have value in part due to the high excise taxes imposed on them. Once stolen, they are easily passed off as legitimate smokes elsewhere and sold to other (illicit) distributors or directly to smokers.
Just think if all those teabagger states in the Deep South weren’t spending millions of dollars a year incarcerating black and brown inmates for marijuana possession how much money they’d have to buy more school textbooks teaching Creationism
Seems more like a consequence of different tax rates that vary from state to state. If every state had a $2 per pack tax, the smuggling stops. Failing that, I’d support zero taxes on tobacco if every smoker signed a waiver that said they agree to pay for cancer treatments out of pocket.
Well, if you are going to tax unhealthy lifestyles.
Tax the homosexual lifestyle - scientifically and statistically, it is one of the unhealthiest. Worse than smoking.
Oh wait - can’t do that…
How would you go about taxing the homosexual lifestyle?
Excise taxes on subarus and birkenstocks?
LOL….
“Well, if you are going to tax unhealthy lifestyles.”
I saw a story this morning regarding kids and snow sledding being banned or outlawed even near me apparently in Richland, WA. Injuries and expensive lawsuits are the critical issue. Are we painting ourselves into the proverbial corner?
Permian basin oil producer - layoffs…..
http://www.oaoa.com/premium/article_41c7460e-a832-11e4-9b37-9bdd79923415.html
Conoco Phillips announcing layoffs soon as well.
This oil crater has a long way to go…..
Richard Aboulafia finally puts in his two cents….
http://tinyurl.com/ol2w9ak
The Lear 85 has been dead since last April. Two weeks of flight testing determined that the aircraft was too heavy, and the wings and tail surfaces were too small. On a airplane built out of composites, that means pulling out the drafting paper, and starting from scratch. Just the latest in a 25 year long list of examples of plastic airplanes that are over-hyped, and under-perform.
In this case, Bombardier pulled out the bankster’s “Zombie mortgage” playbook……..rather than take the $1.4 billion writeoff, they pretended the program was still alive for eight months. Until such time that they got some of their other programs straightened out, or their buddies could run for cover (take your pick). And nobody in the financial or aviation press threw the “BS” flag.
Now that Mitt is out it’s gonna be Jeb vs Hillary
Oh, goody. Dumb and Dumber… again.
Life imitating art. We just had 20th anniversary of the movie….
Theres a question just why het opted out and he does not think Jeb can win;
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2015-01-30/why-mitt-romney-thinks-he-can-win-and-jeb-bush-can-t-
The latest from the aviation job market………
Have been cold-called twice this year on Director of Maintenance positions. Seems that the talent pool has been dried up, and now the poaching is starting.
Trouble is, they are trying to poach on the cheap.
Conversations are going something like this:
Caller: (After laying out the job description, and telling me that none of the guys they have interviewed are qualified)……asks “How much will it take to get a qualified guy for this position?”
-fixr: “Six figures plus, especially if a move to BFE is involved.”
Caller: “Well, uhhhhh……….”
Hence, the problem/dilemma for aviation managers who have been low-balling their maintenance techs for the last 25 years. They don’t want to pay that much, but everybody that is remotely qualified is either making that much already where they are at, and won’t move to BFE to work his azz off, while taking a pay cut.
Or they hire someone unqualified/inexperienced on the cheap, and hope for the best. In a business where the opportunity to make a $25-100K mistake happens almost weekly.
Fearless forecast: The management pukes will pick option “B”.
And continue crying that they “can’t find qualified help”. Forgetting, of course, that by screwing the worker bees around for 25-30 years, that the “qualified help” issue is a problem they created themselves.
Two ways to fix:
The free market forces salaries up to where these companies can find the talent.
The government steps in, creates lots of programs/studies and imports H1Bs or just changes standards. Maybe even picks winners and losers in the industry…
“Hence, the problem/dilemma for aviation managers who have been low-balling their maintenance techs for the last 25 years.”
CalTrans is losing their “affordable” engineers to retirement. The new workforce is unstable because they need way more money to buy homes and pay-down those student loans, and California is unwilling or unable to increase their wages.
Breitbart article for all the alleged conservatives who want to “shrink the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub” by launching another trillion dollar war
“Kyle was part of an invasion force. Americans went to Iraq. Iraq did not invade America or attack Americans. Contrary to what the George W. Bush administration suggested, Iraq had nothing to do with the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Before Americans invaded Iraq, Al Qaeda was not there. Nor was it in Syria, Yemen, and Libya.
The only reason Kyle went to Iraq was that Bush/Cheney & Co. launched a war of aggression against the Iraqi people.
In concluding, he questioned how conservatives can honor Kyle since “he eagerly and expertly killed whomever the government told him to kill.” Rich man wants to know how killing for a government in this fashion squares with “limited government” principles or “heroism.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/01/29/libertarian-org-on-american-sniper-no-difference-between-chris-kyle-adam-lanza/
Forward
Current banner ad on the HBB:
http://www.arabmatchmaking.com/
Biden: ‘The Past Six Years Have Been Really, Really Hard For This Country’
Weekly Standard | 01/30/2015 | DANIEL HALPER
At an event this morning, Vice President Joe Biden told Democrats that, “To state the obvious, the past six years have been really, really hard for this country.”
“And they’ve been really tough for our party. Just ask [former DCCC chair] Steve [Israel]. They’ve been really tough for our party. And together we made some really, really tough decisions — decisions that weren’t at all popular, hard to explain,” said Biden.
Yes - things can get even worse…
The end game for America is when US Treasury Bonds are to be paid back in a foreign currency.
————-
Homeowners in Poland Borrowed in Swiss Francs, and Now Pay Dearly
nytimes.com | JAN. 28, 2015 | DANNY HAKIM
WARSAW — Piotr Szczepaniak, an apartment manager here, had just finished work, checking faucets and making sure rents were paid. After making himself a coffee, he logged on to a Polish social network and noticed that someone had posted the current exchange rate of the Swiss franc.
“I was frozen,” he said, seeing that the franc’s value had soared that day. Like hundreds of thousands of other Eastern Europeans, Mr. Szczepaniak, 46, is paying off a mortgage he took out in francs, instead of his local currency, the zloty.
In an instant, his monthly payment rose by more than 20 percent when Switzerland’s central bank unexpectedly removed a cap on its currency.
END GAME!!!
If you have money in a Greek Bank - pull it out NOW!
——————–
Greece says will not cooperate with troika or seek aid extension
cnbc | 1-30-2015 | Reuters
Greece’s government will not cooperate with the EU and IMF mission bankrolling the country and will not seek an extension to the bailout program, its finance minister said on Friday.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the euro zone finance ministers’ group who is in Athens for talks with the new government, said the two sides would decide what would happen next before the program ends on Feb. 28.
Gold handily beat the S&P 500 this month. Why?
Did “someone” spike today?
If your answer is “no”, provide a fundamental’s based reason for oil to spike up by 8% on the very day the U.S. GDP release turned out “slower than expected.”
Short covering rally? Go on, take the money and run…
Futures Movers
Oil soars 8% Friday, still down 9% for month
Published: Jan 30, 2015 3:52 p.m. ET
Rig cutbacks, short covering help drive gains
By Victor Reklaitis
Markets writer
Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Oil prices soared Friday, achieving their biggest daily percentage gain in two and a half years, yet still wrapped up January with a big loss.
Analysts said factors behind oil’s jump on Friday included news of a huge drop in U.S. rig counts as producers respond to oversupply, as well as short covering on the last day of the month.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery (CLH5, +7.10%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange, also known as West Texas Intermediate, settled up by $3.71, or 8.3%, at $48.24 a barrel. It was the largest one-day percentage advance since June 2012, coming just one day after the contract traded below the $44-a-barrel level for the first time in nearly six years.
For the week, the U.S. oil benchmark gained 5.8%, leaving it down 9.4% for the month after it earlier showed a double-digit percentage decline for January. WTI has dropped for seven months in a row, and it remains off 55% from its June peak.
The number of U.S. oil-drilling rigs dropped by 94 in the past week, representing the largest one-week decrease since at least 1987, according to data out Friday from oilfield-services firm Baker Hughes.
The rig-count news, short covering and technical factors helped drive oil higher Friday, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. He said his firm had been keep an eye on the $44-a-barrel level for WTI, and that area — “a big support line” ended up holding this week.
“That was probably a final sign to shorts that they better take their money,” Flynn told MarketWatch.
…
“Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
“It was a police state. It was absurd how heavy handed the capitol police and Democratic staff were in trying to control everywhere the press went,” New York Times reporter Jeremy Peters said in an interview.”
At retreat, Dem staffers escort reporters to restroom
by Hadas Gold | Politico | January 30, 2015
Reporters covering the House Democrats’ retreat in Philadelphia this week are having a much different experience than when they’re on their home turf on Capitol Hill.
Reporters are being escorted to and from the restroom and lobby and are being barred from entering the hotel outside of scheduled events, even if they’ve been invited by a member of Congress.
During Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks at the retreat Friday, reporters were required to have a staff member, usually a junior member of the press team, escort them when going to the bathroom or to the lobby. The filing center for reporters was at a separate hotel from where the retreat was taking place, so access was limited to members of Congress specifically made available to the press.
“It was a police state. It was absurd how heavy handed the capitol police and Democratic staff were in trying to control everywhere the press went,” New York Times reporter Jeremy Peters said in an interview.
Peters said at one point he was also barred from entering the hotel where the retreat was taking place, despite the fact he had an invitation to eat breakfast with a member of Congress.
“I was an invited guest into this hotel, into the restaurant of the hotel. The staff from the Democratic caucus refused to let me into the hotel, and the Capitol Police told me to leave, even after the congressman went to them and said ‘no, he is my invited guest,’” Peters said.
Peters said he was told by a staffer they were being escorted to prevent them from talking to members of Congress.
sell your overpriced assets while there is still some liquidity!
I’ll post an article tonight discussing people hoarding cash in America. And they are not necessarily the wealthy or the hoods.
why would you keep money in a bank? Just for safety purposes? bury it or put it n a mattress.
See link near the bottom, should be able to see it around 7:30pm Left Coast Time.
You really don’t want to have ancient fiat. I somehow doubt banks will accept paper with 1970s issue date on them.
Besides, if you have paper from 1972 you would have been better off in physical gold bullion as a hidable asset.
I had a colleague who, while in his 40s had a young wife in her 20s. He was nervous about her money ideas and always looking over his shoulder about whether she would sue for divorce. He had an elaborate plan of stashing rolls of $100s into Lexar bottles. About six Lexar bottles. No metal at all. Tie the bottles to each other with rope. Bury the money where only you could find it. I guess you could put $10s of thousands worth in six bottles. Nice food change in case she divorces you and sues you for support. You’d be able to afford an occasional bottle Blankiet estate Paradise Hill Red Napa 2006 and a high class escort every weekend or so for a couple of years.
So, a while back someone noted that the actual buyers were a subset of the population (usually with higher incomes), and so that median home prices as compared to median incomes wasn’t really the right way to look at things.
In that vein, CoreLogic put out their “MarketPulse” today and did a small study on the median incomes of people who are obtaining mortgages to purchase homes (they looked at fully documented loans only).
Here’s the highlight from the data (IMHO):
On an inflation-adjusted basis, the median income of those obtaining purchase mortgages rose by 20% from 2000 to 2005, but the median income of all households fell by 2.7% over the same timeframe.
We are chasing the market up again now…from about 2012 to now, the median income of people buying has risen by 40%, when overall wages have been flat.
In other words, higher and higher home prices simply narrowed the potential buying pool to people with higher and higher incomes.
One conclusion is that despite higher and higher home prices, the households that are buying are not getting further and further stretched…because those that are buying at higher and higher prices have higher and higher incomes.
The other conclusion is that fewer and fewer folks at the median income level are buying homes.
I find this dynamic interesting to consider in terms of prices, supply, market stability, etc.
I see this as an unstable trend. You can’t keep pushing prices higher and higher hoping to sell more and more homes to fewer and fewer people who have the higher incomes necessary to buy without overstretching. Either more cheaper homes will need to be built, or we will start selling to people with less ability to pay…which is exactly what happened in 2004-2007.
‘the actual buyers were a subset of the population (usually with higher incomes)’
When I started this blog, I looked through a lot of census data. Just before 2000, the highest percentage of house ownership in the US was West Virginia at 87%. WV also had the least expensive houses in the US.
You should see these shacks around sacramento going for 200k. Basic construction built a long time ago. something you and some buddies could frame out in a long weekend over a few 12 packs. Most first time buyers are broke so they have to get a loan to pay for these shacks. All the interest is front loaded too. So even if you pay 10 years you still basically haven’t paid anything towards the principal.
The banks have taken over. Perpetual debt serfs.
“The banks have taken over.”
Wrong; The banks merely accept what is willingly handed over to them.
Willingly handed over to them by these guys:
“Perpetual debt serfs.”
Banks need perpetual debt serfs more than the other way around but these debt serfs don’t see things that way.
A nation of dummys: Tell ‘em that they are smart and you’ve got them AND you’ve got their money.
“All the interest is front loaded too. So even if you pay 10 years you still basically haven’t paid anything towards the principal.”
+1 A co-worker is stuck with a 2,500-sqft home in a nice neighborhood, but it’s in the Detroit area. He’s had the place for 12-yrs, and he’s still upside-down as deflation has steadily eaten into what little principal he’s paid. It was a foreclosure too when he bought it from the bank! He has had no problem renting the place, but he can’t talk them into buying it. His entire military retirement goes toward the place, but I recently over-heard him discussing “walking away.”
Why would “cheaper homes need to be built” when there are millions of empty excess houses out there?
Do you stash cash?
Selfish Hoarder does.
http://personalliberty.com/stash-cash/
I’ve been waiting for the one day when we say that we don’t want to fight no more and there’ll be no war and the children will play….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRmBChQjZPs
Share it. Stop the endless wars. Stop Imperialism.