February 8, 2015

Bits Bucket for February 8, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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199 Comments »

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 02:05:32

Chreightore

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 06:34:07

Cavitation Basin

 
Comment by palmetto
2015-02-08 06:59:04

Hey, Prof, thanks for posting that bit about the Skakels yesterday. You nailed EXACTLY what I was referring to, the depravity of the “very best people” in the NY/Southern New England area. Although I never knew the Skakels personally, like just about everyone who lived in that little burg of Greenwich, I saw them around town and heard about their various adventures and knew people who knew them. But I did get to know (and wish I hadn’t) some other peeps in the same vein as the Skakels. Ugh. Really gives some insight as to how messed up the “upper crust” can be.

Comment by buuters
2015-02-08 08:21:47

What you called messed up, we call it our sophistication & eccentricity.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:35:07

Those are our 0.1% wealthiest entrepreneurs and job creators brought the US economy out of the Great Depression.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:33:07
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 09:24:32

Well worth the trip if you are anywhere in AZ near the Meteor Crater.

With housing it is a Joshua Tree instead of a meteor.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:16:09

Thank you so much for the suggestion. We just planned a spring trip to AZ; will add it to the itinerary.

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Comment by boots on the ground
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:36:44

Stands to reason the Republicans are heavily funded by vice.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 09:28:44

Does it stand to reason the Democrats are also?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:20:12

Yes, though I don’t know whether there are any similar examples of deep pockets in the “gaming” (i.e. gambling) industry funding Dumbocrats.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:21:14

Wait a minute…I temporarily forgot about all the Wall Street gambling proceeds that fund both parties’ campaigns…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2015-02-08 05:56:34

Im looking for distressed assets on craigslist today. Are you going to the big box stores looking for more stuff?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 08:12:04

You would do better to sell some of your stuff to pay down your debts.

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 08:12:49

It is not time yet for gr8 deals. Stock market needs to crash by at least 50% from peak. House prices must crash.

Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 09:00:30

Stock market needs to crash by at least 50% from peak. House prices must crash ??

Be careful what you wish for…The idea that you will be isolated and immune from its fallout is sheer fantasy…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 09:17:28

Only an indebted credit junkie believes that. It’s their religion.

A 65% decline in housing prices merely puts the price back to long term trend. It’s not just possible. It’s probable and likely considering prices are falling once again.

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Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 09:30:35

This is the lie they use to justify the bailouts and intervention. It ain’t so unless you are funded by the bubble.

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Comment by Neuromance
2015-02-08 10:04:02

With bailouts and interventions, they can direct the blast onto the less-wealthy and non-connected population. They can extract value and keep the architects of the failed system (politicians and business leaders) in power. See the bonuses received on Wall Street after the system imploded.

No bailouts and interventions means that those who were playing and directing the game receive the blast.

But nothing is going to dissipate the blast energy. Only direct it. You can’t print value.

The working classes suffered very significantly in this past recession. But MSM journalists don’t hobnob with the working classes so there were few stories on their plight. Mostly, we hear the advertisers’ and lobbyists view of things on the MSM for whom things are economically rosy. So we things like Yellen’s “Let them eat cake” speech to the poor telling them to save money and buy financial and real estate assets.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 10:15:00

I do not care if a billionaire becomes a half billionaire.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 10:30:25

The working classes suffered very significantly in this past recession ??

Isn’t that always the case ?? Recessions don’t effect the 1% ers in the same way that it does the 99%…

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 11:47:24

Shallow I agree wi your post. SCDave you took the Statist bait hook, line, and sinker. So we need more QE to keep your shack price value artificially high.

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 12:08:06

We had such a severe stock crash in 2008 to early 2009 and the world did not end. It would have self corrected to return to strength if there were no bailouts. The crash of 1920 was not artificially propped up and the market returned to health after that.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 14:00:40

and the world did not end ??

Depends on your definition of end…And you would not know anyway because you were not there…Easy to read about it and blow it off…Quite different to live it BILL…

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.[1] It threatened the total collapse of large financial institutions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_crisis_of_2008

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 14:11:28

You’re the one claiming the world will end as prices fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.

Liquidate now and get what you can get or walk away later. The choice is yours.

 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-08 08:32:39

Ive noticed lots of the free stuff is really junk…..people dont want Lift a finger to move it to the street..really lazy dumb millennials…So they hope some schulb will do it for them,

Or i’ve noticed they will put up free ads this morning because they have to be out by 5pm today, and have no clue about the weather its going to rain sleet later…but yesterday was a nice day to go out and scarf things up..

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-02-08 21:41:21

‘Ive noticed lots of the free stuff is really junk…..people dont want Lift a finger to move it to the street..really lazy dumb millennials…So they hope some schulb will do it for them, ‘

I remember a boss of mine telling me many years ago that in NYC, the clever mom and pop businesses would put their garbage in sealed, official looking boxes and leave them on the sidewalk or something, knowing that thieves would steal the boxes in a second. Like a Trojan Horse or something.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 06:23:47

Boston Metro Sale Prices Crater 12% In 2014

Your city is next.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 06:35:24

Sale Prices Dive 3% YoY In San Luis Obispo, CA Metro Area

http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-ca/home-values/

Comment by rms
2015-02-08 09:35:45

A great place to live if you’re a trust fund baby!

Zip codes: 93401 (city-data)

Estimated median household income in 2012: $47,149 (it was $31,926 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo: $47,149
CA: $58,328

Estimated per capita income in 2012: $27,207 (it was $20,386 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo city income, earnings, and wages data

Estimated median house or condo value in 2012: $496,500 (it was $252,900 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo: $496,500
CA: $349,400

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 12:19:04

Well I guess so! I wonder if 401k distributions are counted as income? If not, that may be part of the reason. I keep thinking of the old wealthy farmer my dad knew in Fresno County getting 30k per month income from the California tax free municipal bonds. Old California wealth is like that.

Colleague of mine in Irvine is very much a “progressive” Republican…statist in many ways but does not like taxes. He told me of one thing he does that does not get 1099′d. I try to tell him to shut up about those things when talking to people who know you and can report you easily to the FTB. His family is old California wealth.

I would guess the net worth needed to be old wealth (trust fund type) would be in 8 digits. In comparison, somewhere above $5 million in Arizona could be from old wealth. I knew a Scottsdale girl with a rich dad. She could drive any car of her choice (thanks to her dad) but still had to work for a living and owned a townhouse.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 06:49:37

CraterRage® Photo Of The Day

http://goo.gl/V8QMLM

Comment by rms
2015-02-08 09:46:05

Pretty good actually. LOL!

 
 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 06:56:43

Greenspan predicts Grexit
BBC News

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: “I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don’t think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

“The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won’t do it.”

Comment by palmetto
2015-02-08 07:00:09

The Mummy speaks!

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 07:30:10

“all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated”

Bahahahaha … I love this blog.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 07:32:38

I thought that was hilarious too. That’s like me saying I agree to cover the cost of “principal reduction” on The Donks underwater mortgage.

 
 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 07:54:17

the europeans created it because they were jealous of the dollar. they thought that the euro would be stronger than the dollar. rather, they ‘hoped’ it would be.

the truth is none of them understood how a fiat currency works, or they never would have created the euro in the first place. an exercise in ignorance and arrogance.

the sooner the euro dies, the better off the entire world will be.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 08:18:21

The Euro has been, and still is, stronger than the USD. It may be more fragile, but it hasn’t gone below USD yet.

The best indication of what was wanted by the framers of the Euro, is what they have been getting. The lazy countries have been impoverished and saddled with tremendous debt. The banking class has been raking in the skim. Works until it doesn’t.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 08:32:43

“The banking class has been raking in the skim.”

As is their ordained, God-given right.

“Works until it doesn’t.”

As does all things.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:38:48

“Stronger” in what sense?

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Comment by tj
2015-02-08 09:00:07

The Euro has been, and still is, stronger than the USD. It may be more fragile, but it hasn’t gone below USD yet.

neither has bitcoin. relative strength among currencies in not an indicator of their sustainability.

i’ve said many times that the euro could only last as long as it was bailed out. the swiss stopped bailing. this is the beginning of the end.

people had confidence in the euro because they don’t understand that it’s fundamentally flawed.

the euro will fail before the dollar.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:02:34

“neither has bitcoin.”

Bingo! Bitcoin is stronger than either the dollar or the euro. Be sure to park all your money there.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 09:10:34

tj, now you are changing your claim to “sustainable”.

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 09:21:39

the euro is ‘unsustainable’. how’s that?

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 09:24:42

what’s the difference between saying something is not sustainable and saying it will fail?

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 09:51:00

How were the Swiss, with their comparatively tiny economy, bailing out the euro?

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 09:56:18

by pegging their currency to it they had to buy euros to strengthen the euro, and weaken their own.

they’re still paying on the money they borrowed to do this, but they will come out of it fine.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 10:03:52

Yeah, I get that they pegged their currency to the euro, I just question if that was enough to bail the euro out, given how much smaller the Swiss economy is.

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 10:08:06

i answered it correctly. look above. i said it weakened their own currency. see that?

when they depegged the franc shot up around 30% overnight.

of course the effect was bigger on their currency. that’s to be expected. spending money to bring their currency into line with the euro IS bailing out the euro.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 10:50:28

Yet the Euro is still worth more than the dollar.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:53:07

But both the Euro and the dollar are worth far more than the Japanese yen. So the yen must be an extraordinarily weak currency.

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-08 11:00:08

Yet the Euro is still worth more than the dollar.

apparently you think you can tell whether a currency will fail or not by where it stands among other currencies. you can’t.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 11:34:00

The Yen was originally the equivalent of the Spanish dollar, as were all “dollars”. So yes, the yen is weaker than the USD. The Euro settled into parity with the USD in the year of its launch, so yes it is now stronger than the dollar.

I’m not arguing what the vectors are, only making a distinction between position and direction. A silly discussion I guess.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 11:41:26

My point is that it is not about relative denomination (i.e. 100 yen to the dollar, or whatever), but rather about stable value, relative value, etc.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 12:16:15

There is no such thing as stable value just now. This is a period of extreme fragility. Right now the Euro is valued above the dollar, though it is taking quite the dive to the mat.

It’s like arguing that acceleration should not be considered a synonym for velocity. Direction of movement should not be equated with current position. OK, now it is a really silly conversation.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 13:21:04

Suppose that tonight the Japanese government said that from now on, 1 yen = 100 yen as of yesterday. Would that change the fundamental value and dynamics of the currency? I think not (as did David Hume long ago).

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 13:44:02

LOL. I think if the Japanese revalue the Yen, that a Euro would still be worth more than a USD, until it’s not.

 
 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 08:19:46

The real issue is the USA power system is greatly tied to the powerful NSA and its fellow agencies CIA, and FBI. The top dog is USA. The Greenwald book said enough that the NSA shares some espionage info with the Dept of commerce (read the book). From there, the Dept of commerce helps the top U.S. Based companies to maintain lead. In exchange for…

The euro idea was doomed from the start.

Bet with the NSA until the people demand transparency. That means bet on USA large and medium stocks to continue upward.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 08:36:53

“Bet with the NSA until the people demand transparency.”

Anyone who demands transparency had better be squeaky clean.

And even that may be of no help.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:37:43

“Eventually” we’ll all be dead.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 09:11:43

Raise as much hell as possible in the meantime.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 09:37:37

And if you exercise vigorously and sweat, enjoy yourself and don’t worry about your sodium intake, you might not even be getting enough sodium.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 10:01:23

Don’t exercise yourself into the grave.

Too much jogging may be as bad for you as not running at all, study suggests
The Independent

Years of running too long and too far could be as bad for you as doing nothing at all, a study has suggested.

Scientists have claimed “light” joggers who run for just one to 2.4 hours a week – and no more than three times a week – have the highest life expectancy rates.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 10:17:03

Sweat heavily, daily if possible. The benefits are incredible.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:22:59

“The benefits are incredible.”

Are you referring to horizontal jogging?

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 10:59:29

Getting the toxins out of your body and the cardiovascular benefits of exercise are worth it. My cholesterol is at 183 and the LDL below 80. Doctor advised me at least 40 minutes of cardio a day. He did not mention diet. He says diet does not affect as much as exercise. But I recall Jim Fixx who thought the same. Diet is important. The red grapefruit and oatmeal daily also works wonders. A year ago my total cholesterol was 250.

240 minutes a week of jogging, should be about 280. And I recommend swimming and biking. Non impact. You still sweat the toxins when swimming.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 11:33:40

Bill — congrats on your success bringing down your cholesterol. I should give your approach a try. I’ve been quite faithful with regular workouts, but might benefit from stepping it up a bit.

I took a course last month
about how to improve your brain performance, and regular vigorous exercise was a primary recommendation.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 12:07:50

“”The U-shaped association between jogging and mortality suggests there may be an upper limit for exercise dosing that is optimal for health benefits.”

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 14:41:44

Thanks PB.

Odd fellow, look at marathon runners. They look like they are at death’s door. But I think 7 hours a week of cardio is optimal. And that does not include resistance training, which is a must. 20 minutes three days a week for resistance training is probably all you need if you are focused on a healthy cholesterol level.

My doc actually told me I won’t be getting any heart attack…

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 15:31:30

For your own sake, Bill, sit down and eat some cheetos.

“While exercise researchers haven’t determined the exact toll this takes on the heart muscle, evidence suggests that too much prolonged exertion over time can do irreversible damage. In a 2012 review of more than 50 studies published in the journal Mayo Clinic Proceedings, O’Keefe and his colleagues concluded that endurance athletes who participate in marathon-style running, biking, and swimming races have five times the risk of developing an irregular heartbeat called atrial fibrillation because of an enlargement of their heart muscle. Some also have more scarring on heart tissue and higher levels of a protein called troponin, which is involved in inflammation and atherosclerosis, a chronic condition that damages blood vessels.”

Boston Globe

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2015-02-08 18:27:28

You should have told that to Jack LaLanne.

He lifted weights daily, followed by an hour of swimming. Died at 96. Exercised 2 days before he died.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 19:04:06

Jogging guru Jim Fixx died while jogging at the age of 52. Those are anecdotal events though, the studies show the overall statistics. Hard core exercisers die at the same rate as the sedentary, the moderate exercisers outlive them both.

Moderation, in all things, even exercise.

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2015-02-08 20:25:52

Look around you. The obesity epidemic. I think you are making too much of what is not even happening.

There are many stories out there, however, of people who get the exercise kick at middle age and run marathons and drop dead of a heart attack. Well the common theme is that they start up later in life. So that in 2013 they start running 3 miles every other day. Then in 2014 it’s 5 miles and in 2015 its a 26 mile Marathon several times a year.

Then there is the dude in Florida who has been running on the beach for 8 miles daily since the 1970s. He has severe back pain and does not get it taken care of because he either won’t be able to run anymore or he will break the streak.

When you say moderation is a virtue, you should be speaking to the overwhelming population who is sedentary and obese.

 
 
 
 
Comment by buuters
2015-02-08 10:12:29

Greenspam doesn’t know anything. I have a suspicion that somehow auntie Yelling will bailout Greece to remain in euro.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 06:59:59

“Falling Oil Prices Will Spur EU Growth”

http://www.euronews.com/2015/02/05/falling-oil-prices-will-spur-growth-in-european-union-say-economists/

Remember…. Falling prices of all items to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:43:26

Now is when things get interesting. Has oil bottomed out, are is this one great big, protracted dead cat bounce destined to end in further price declines?

The one former poster who could give a definite answer to the question appears to no longer be interested in it.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:45:52

Commodities
Oil Prices Post Biggest One-Week Gain Since 2011
Investors Bet Prices May Have Bottomed, But Analysts Caution About Oversupply
By Nicole Friedman and Georgi Kantchev
Updated Feb. 6, 2015 5:06 p.m. ET
Men work at an oil site in the Bakken formation in North Dakota in late 2013. Photo: Minneapolis Star Tribune/Zuma Press

Oil prices posted their largest weekly percentage gain in almost four years as traders looked past the current world-wide glut of crude to focus on signals of future production cuts.

Some market participants said oil prices, which have fallen 52% in the past seven months, could be bottoming out as producers have reacted to the low prices by cutting expenditures and reducing drilling activity. But many analysts caution that the global oil market still is oversupplied and there are few signs of a major uptick in demand, so prices could slip yet again.

The market was volatile this past week, posting a one-month high Tuesday before falling Wednesday and then regaining those losses by week’s end.

U.S. oil for March delivery settled up $1.21, or 2.4%, Friday at $51.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices gained 7.2% for the week, the largest weekly percentage gain since February 2011.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 08:51:12

A globe awash in oil, production capacity at record highs, demand cratering.

Sounds exactly like the housing market.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 08:49:22

It gets interesting for related reasons.

The squeeze is on. Cashflow evaporated but the bookie wants his vig no matter.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 07:06:06

“Eurozone To Benefit From Oil Price Fall”

https://euobserver.com/news/127514

We all benefit from falling prices of all items.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 08:20:21

“We all” or as they say in Pittsburgh, “We’uns”.

The elite banking class will lose their a$$.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 08:40:35

“The elite banking class will lose their a$$.”

Wrong! Never happen!

The Dotted Line rules. It rules now, it will rule forever!

Dumbed down forever = prosperity forever.

God’s Plan.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:47:36

Plus if the banking class loses their a$$ets, all the children will suffer immensely.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 07:30:49

“High Court Makes It Easier For Borrowers To Walk Away From Underwater Homes”

http://rismedia.com/2015-01-13/high-court-makes-it-easier-for-borrowers-to-walk-away-from-underwater-homes/

Here’s your opportunity to start fresh Jingle_Fraud.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:48:36

Stick it to The Man who loaned you the money!

 
Comment by rms
2015-02-08 09:53:30

Still have to pay income tax on that forgiven debt, right?

Comment by ibbots
2015-02-08 10:13:57

Not if it was their primary residence, or they were insolvent at the time of discharge.

 
Comment by ibbots
2015-02-08 10:16:24

That case deals with rescission though, which differs from discharge.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 11:32:39

Ambulance Chasers don’t buy things. They steal them.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 07:32:27
 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 07:48:36

Irrational exuberance? No, just a grilled cheese food truck company with less than $4 million in annual sales, and a market valuation of $108 million.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-05/grilled-cheese-truck-as-an-irrational-exuberance-indicator

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 08:12:31

Nuts.

Keep your wallet in your pocket and get out of debt quickly.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 08:44:13

“… less than $4 million in annual sales, and a market valuation of $108 million.”

(doin’ some math here …)

OMG! That’s a price/sales ratio of over 28!

Bahahahahaha … send them to me!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-08 08:54:40

‘according to the company’s financial statements, it has about $1 million of assets and almost $3 million in liabilities. In the third quarter of 2014, it had sales of almost $1 million, on which it had a net loss of more than $900,000.’

http://www.thegrilledcheesetruck.com/Pages/menus.aspx

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 09:01:07

And the number of trucks that compose their vast fleet of grilled cheese trucks is …

… four.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:06:15

It’s great to know the economy has recovered back to a state where only valuations matter, and outdated measures of value such as cash flow or profits merely serve to confuse old fuddy-duddies who don’t understand the economy is running off a whole new model.

Except it doesn’t really seem new, if you remember the dot com boom and bust.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-08 09:15:52

‘four’

Yeah, but that ghastly website has a drop down ordering list that includes all 50 states. And the District of Columbia!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:19:00

Sounds like the company is readying its plan to take over the world!

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 10:13:34

‘four’

So that’s a valuation of $27 million per truck. That’s a lot of grilled cheese.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 09:12:12

Dot Com redux…Too much money chasing everything…

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Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 10:27:31

Thanks for that Dave, it was interesting.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-08 08:21:11

‘Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days’

‘And this was despite the fact that its central bank simultaneously jacked up interest rates from 14 to 19.5 percent’

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/02/06/ukraines-currency-has-fallen-50-percent-in-two-days/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 08:34:20

Looks like America’s middle-class taxpayers will be put on the hook for billions in new “loan guarantees” for “aid” that will disappear into the Swiss bank accounts of the kletocrat oligarchs running the show in Kiev.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 08:46:35

Yep.

In other, more important, news, Bruce Jenner got into some sort of an automobile accident …

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 08:59:17

That’s what you get when you commiserate with Lolas. You become a Lola.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-08 09:18:01

‘Ukraine’s president has said his country is ready for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. A rising death toll is adding to pressure on a Franco-German effort to end the 10-month conflict.’

‘ “I am ready to announce a complete and unconditional ceasefire any time to stop the rising civilian casualties,” Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Saturday in Munich, where world leaders were meeting to try and find a way out of the conflict.’

‘Poroshenko said Kyiv was prepared to sign a truce “in a few hours or days” if Russia was also willing.’

http://www.dw.de/poroshenko-ukraine-ready-for-unconditional-ceasefire/a-18242959

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:50:01

If you had a choice right now between stashing all your mattress money in bitcoin or Ukraine currency, which would it be?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 09:20:34

dollars.

Comment by shendi
2015-02-08 09:36:37

Ukraine wanted to join the Euro - it will be the death knell for them if they do it now. Maybe Poroshenko realized that.
IRC, this guy is a wall st. type isn’t he?

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-08 10:20:56

He’s a candy billionaire oligarch type.

 
 
 
 
Comment by shendi
2015-02-08 09:44:59

From the article, Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, it’s been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the country’s nonexistent growth. That last part’s not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraine’s economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little that’s left. It’s not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. It’s that it can’t afford to fight against what’s still it’s biggest trading partner—Russia…

Two things stand out: (1) factory heavy east (2) biggest trading partner.

Someone in Ukraine and the west miscalculated badly about the bringing spring to Ukraine.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-08 10:00:05

The neocons don’t have a very good track record on regime change. This is Hillary’s gang doing this, with our money of course ($5 billion just for the run up to the coup). I don’t understand why Obama is so captured by these people. Iraq, Libya, Syria; all disasters that will have huge death tolls for years. Unless, that’s what they wanted all along.

And the US congress and nomination for Sec of Defense want to send lethal arms to Ukraine! They have even chastised Merkel for opposing the move. 5,000 dead people aren’t enough for these dogs.

It’s not hard to stir up trouble. I bet you could pick any country on a map and find some “rebels” who’d like to split off or take over or slaughter their ‘enemies’. Send in some CIA guys, money, a few car bombs and wham! You got an insurgency. I’d bet you could find some ‘freedom fighters’ in Texas in a couple of hours.

Comment by shendi
2015-02-08 10:23:02

What I don’t understand is that, why the war mongering? Has this got something to do with the economy - I mean if the whole country was at war then people could be employed producing munitions. Right now it is the only game in town, other than blowing asset bubbles.
A logical and thinking person would see that the track record is bad from way back in the 1980’s in South America to the present.
Perhaps it is essential for those to attain leadership positions in this country the presence of psychopathic /sociopathic gene is a must.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 11:41:47

I think “these people” are pathological, criminally insane. They cannot let anyone or anything just exist outside their control, and they can’t be not killing someone or not making others suffer. Criminals.

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Comment by rms
2015-02-08 10:07:09

“Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days”

In that case I’ll take TWO mail order brides!

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 10:11:25

‘Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days’ ??

Want a sobering take on the situation…Watch interviews on Fareed today on CNN…Worst crisis since the bay of pigs is their take on it…

 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-08 08:21:25

What? VH1 has music this morning. Three songs so far I heard and none are rap or growler metal. Great diversion from MSM news.

Comment by palmetto
2015-02-08 08:30:12

Yep, I like to watch and listen to music videos on youtube from time to time, mostly pre 1990s, unless it’s something like Live From Daryl’s House.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 08:31:49

The sheeple mindlessly vote for the crony capitalist status quo, then are shocked to discover they are corporate roadkill, though they lack the intelligence to make the connection between their vote for the Republicrat Duopoly’s Tweedle Dee/Tweedle Dum candidates and the corporate state’s shafting of “overpriced” American workers.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/02/07/american-workers-roadkill-for-lobbyists-immigration-lawyers/

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 08:47:42

1. Dumb ‘em down.

2. Prosper.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 09:50:30

All government policies and the prevailing culture here now seems to simply encourage weakness.

Are we a strong people who can get things done or are we an ignorant, obese, pill-popping, distracted, lazy, foolish people? Physically, mentally, spiritually, emotionally and financially weak.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 10:11:40

Current policies are aimed at creating dependency and mindless compliance. It’s working, too, as evidenced by the 95% of the sheeple who can be counted on to vote for even the most appalling Establishment Republicrat “choices” every four years.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 12:07:56

I’m talking about way broader than politics also, it’s the whole culture of weakness.

One example. If you are sitting around a poker table and someone can get you angry or on tilt with just some words, who has the strength in that situation? They will get your money.

You ARE sitting around that poker table. It is called life.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:51:01

Did you offload your Treasurys in time?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:52:42

Yields jump, curve flattens
February 08, 2015
RECORDER REPORT

US Treasury yields jumped on Friday, and the yield curve flattened after a report showed that US job growth rose solidly in January and wages rebounded strongly, raising some bets that the Federal Reserve may act sooner to raise interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257,000 last month, the US Labour Department said on Friday. Data for November and December were revised to show 147,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

Hourly wages increased 12 cents last month for a 2.2 percent increase from a year earlier, the largest such gain since August. They had fallen 5 cents in December. “By any measure, this was an extremely good report,” said Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. “It adds some additional evidence for those folks wondering what the fate of wages is going to be, that you probably are looking at some modest wage pressures here.”

Short- and intermediate-dated debt took the brunt of the selling as some analysts and investors worried that current yields failed to reflect the possibility that the Fed may raise rates in the coming months if employment trends continue. Two-year note yields increased to 0.648 percent from 0.528 percent, their highest since January 7. The 12-basis-point increase was the largest one-day move in nearly five years.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:55:32

Treasuries Close Sharply Lower Following Upbeat Jobs Data
2/6/2015 3:44 PM ET

Treasuries moved sharply lower over the course of the trading day on Friday as traders reacted to the release of better than expected jobs data.

Bond prices showed a substantial move to the downside in early trading and remained stuck firmly in the red throughout the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 12.3 basis points to 1.938 percent.

With the increase, the ten-year yield climbed further off its recent lows, reaching its highest closing level in almost a month.

The continued pullback by treasuries came following the release of a report from the Labor Department showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of January.

The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 257,000 jobs in January compared to economist estimates for an increase about 230,000 jobs.

Revised data also showed that employment in November and December jumped by 423,000 jobs and 329,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 147,000 jobs.

However, the Labor Department also said the unemployment rate edged up to 5.7 percent in January from a six-year low of 5.6 percent in December. The rate had been expected to remain unchanged.

The unexpected uptick by the unemployment rate reflected a substantial increase by the size of the labor force, which surged up by 1.05 million.

With the report offsetting recent concerns about the economy, bond traders worried the data may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, “In general, while it’s important not to over-react to one data point, there are exceptions and this is one of them.

Employment growth is clearly on fire and its beginning to put upward pressure on wage growth,” he added. “The Fed can’t wait much longer in that environment, particularly not when interest rates are starting at near-zero.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:57:47

BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Hits 4-week High After Strong Jobs Report
By Joseph Adinolfi, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)–Treasury prices fell Friday, with the 10-year yield rising to its highest intraday level in four weeks, after the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report for January came in stronger than expected.

The 10-year yield was up 12.6 basis points to 1.941% in recent trade, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year’s price is down more than 1%, the largest one-day loss since May 2014.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 08:57:41

“Plummeting Oil Prices Cut North Dakota Revenue Expectations In Half”

“A drastic drop in the oil market carved a $4 billion crater in the state’s revenue forecast, according to the revised forecast the state issued Thursday.”

^ DEGENERATE GAMBLERS ^

Comment by Housing Analyst
Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-08 11:11:32

It’s maybe time to pump up their housing sector so as to save their economy.

Amy says: Build ‘em and they will come.

 
 
Comment by Skroodle
2015-02-08 14:10:22

Drill baby drill!

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 08:59:11

Is it safe at this point to conclude that Grexit fears were overblown?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:01:31

Greece Could Run Out of Cash in Weeks — Update
By Matthew Karnitschnig And Nektaria Stamouli in Athens And Bertrand Benoit in Berlin
Saturday, 7 February 2015

Greece warned it was on course to run out of money within weeks if it doesn’t gain access to additional funds, effectively daring Germany and its other European creditors to let it fail and stumble out of the euro.

Greek Economy Minister George Stathakis said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that a recent drop in tax revenue and other government income had pushed the country’s finances to the brink of collapse.

“We will have liquidity problems in March if taxes don’t improve,” Mr. Stathakis said. “Then we’ll see how harsh Europe is.”

Government revenue has declined sharply in recent weeks, as Greeks with unpaid tax bills hold back from settling arrears, hoping the new leftist government will cut them a better deal. Many also aren’t paying an unpopular property tax that their new leaders campaigned against.

Tax revenue dropped 7%, or about EUR1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), in December from November and likely fell by a similar percentage in January, the minister said.

Other senior Greek officials said the country would have trouble paying pensions and other charges beyond February.

Greece has made no secret of its precarious financial position, but the minister’s comments suggest the country has even less time than many policy makers thought to resolve its standoff with Europe.

Eurozone officials have asked Greece to come up with a specific funding plan by Wednesday, when finance ministers have called a special meeting to discuss the country’s financial situation.

The country needs EUR4 billion to EUR5 billion to tide it over until June, by which time it hopes to negotiate a broader deal with creditors, Mr. Stathakis said, adding that he believes “logic will prevail.”

If it doesn’t, he warned, Greece “will be the first country to go bankrupt over EUR5 billion.”

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 09:00:48

Question for you Free$hitters.

-What did you pay in federal taxes this year?

Don’t LIE

Comment by buuters
2015-02-08 10:22:29

Lot more than you ever did. But Auntie Yelling’s been very kind to my kinds.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-08 13:09:46

I wasn’t aware you were a free shitter. Besides, $10k isn’t “lot more”.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-08 10:54:23

What did you pay in federal taxes this year?

I haven’t paid much this year. Of course the year is only about six weeks old.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:10:36

Now that one of our most prolific posters no longer is here to inform us, I hardly have a clue how China’s economic miracle is proceeding.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:12:25

China’s imports slump, capping dismal January trade performance
By Pete Sweeney
SHANGHAI Sun Feb 8, 2015 6:34am EST
A trailer loaded with container boxes travels in Ningbo port in Zhejiang province, January 22, 2015. REUTERS/William Hong

(Reuters) - China’s trade performance slumped in January, with exports falling 3.3 percent from year-ago levels while imports tumbled 19.9 percent, far worse than analysts had expected and highlighting deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.

Largely as a result of the sharply lower imports - particularly of coal, oil and commodities - China posted a record monthly trade surplus of $60 billion.

The data contrasted sharply with a Reuters poll which showed analysts expected exports to gain 6.3 percent and the slowdown in imports to slow to 3 percent, following a better-than-expected showing in December. The poll had also forecast a trade surplus of $48.9 billion.

The slide in imports is the sharpest since May 2009, when Chinese factories were still slashing inventories in reaction to the global financial crisis. Exports have not produced a negative annual reading since March 2014.

The dismal trade performance will increase concerns that an economic slowdown in China - originally considered a desirable adjustment away from an investment-intensive export model toward one based on domestic consumption - is at risk of derailing.

The government is expected to lower its GDP target to around 7 percent this year, after posting 7.4 percent in 2014 - the slowest pace in 24 years.

Comment by palmetto
2015-02-08 09:22:56

Yes, more on this. People are having a Chinese junk hangover, after having gorged themselves on the stuff.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-07/chinese-imports-crash-worst-january-export-plunge-2009-sends-trade-surplus-record-hi

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:14:33

‘Made in China’ Is Increasingly Becoming ‘Made in USA’
By Heesun Wee

Later this year along the banks of the James River outside Richmond, Virginia, a paper products maker based in northeastern China will begin construction on a new U.S. manufacturing plant. The factory will churn the region’s straw and corn stalks into household products including napkins, tissue and organic fertilizer—all marked “Made in the USA.”

Shandong Tranlin Paper’s new U.S. factory is forecast to generate about 2,000 new jobs by 2020, and is the latest Chinese company to invest in American manufacturing.

Chinese foreign direct investment in the U.S. totaled $12 billion last year, topping $10 billion for the second year in a row, according to the Rhodium Group, which tracks Chinese money flows into the U.S. It was three years ago in 2012, when—for the first time ever—Chinese foreign investment in America lapped investment flows in the other direction to China.

Asian investment in America is nothing new. Japanese companies led the way in the 1980s, partly to evade tariffs. Avoiding international taxes on goods again is partly why Chinese businesses are coming to America. But Chinese investment in the U.S. is striking and different in other ways—and already altering pockets of domestic manufacturing.

Chinese investment in America largely has been tied to mergers and acquisitions. Chinese meat producer Shuanghui Group bought Smithfield Foods for roughly $4.72 billion. But some Chinese companies are taking another tack and building manufacturing plants—from the ground up—on U.S. soil. They’re spending hundreds of millions on new projects and expansions of existing U.S. subsidiaries combined have jumped to five to nine annually, from virtually none a few years ago, according to Rhodium’s research.

China moving up the food chain

Beyond tariff jumping, the larger question remains why?

Known more for low-cost manufacturing and massive shipping containers of cheap toys and textiles, China wants to move up the food chain. China’s gross domestic product for 2014 grew 7.4 percent—the weakest performance in 24 years. As the nation’s economy slows, China wants to push into higher-valued products including pricey construction machinery. But production and sales of higher-margin goods require advanced tech skills and innovation, sometimes more easily achieved outside China, where low-cost production reigns.

And in an ironic twist on offshored American jobs, some Chinese companies are pursuing “Made in USA” branding. “Foreign brands and quality control are increasingly important for China’s affluent middle class,” according to Rhodium’s research.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:17:36

ft dot com
February 8, 2015 9:32 am
China exports fall as trade surplus hits record
Charles Clover in Beijing
Shipping containers sit stacked among gantry cranes at the Kwai Tsing Container Terminals in Hong Kong, China, on Monday, Nov. 24, 2014. The Hong Kong government is scheduled to release trade statistics for October on Nov. 25. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg©Bloomberg

China’s slumping economy hit trade in January. Imports and exports came in worse than anticipated and the monthly trade surplus bulged to a record $60bn as a survey published on Sunday revealed that manufacturing, a key sector to the Chinese economy, contracted in January for the first time in more than two years.

China’s exports fell 3.3 per cent in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped by 19.9 per cent, according to data released on Sunday by the Customs Administration. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected exports to rise by 6.3 per cent and imports to fall only 3 per cent, to give a trade deficit of $48.9bn.

The majority of the slump in imports was the result of falling commodity prices, especially coal and oil, according to analysts at ANZ Research.

China’s iron ore imports and crude oil imports fell by 9.4 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively by volume. However, in value terms, iron ore imports dropped by 50.3 per cent and crude oil imports declined by 41.8 per cent.

The data reflect the cooling of China’s economic growth engine — last year the country’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest rate in more than two decades.

“China’s manufacturing sector is under great pressure as both external and domestic demand remains sluggish,” said ANZ in a statement.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 12:08:33

“both external and domestic demand remains sluggish…”

That’s the key. It’s grow or die in a credit driven expansion. They need to borrow more to build more capacity in the teeth of declining demand and revenue.

“(Bloomberg) — China registered a record trade surplus in January as imports plunged on falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand.”

“A property downturn and a stall in manufacturing are signals the government may need to step up measures to stimulate the economy, as domestic demand for commodities including crude oil and iron ore declines. The record trade surplus…”

“The slump in imports means a slump in the overall situation of the economy,”

“We are going to see more of these alarming data in the next few months.”

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 09:21:58

Asia Economy
China’s Exports Post Surprise Drop in January
More Evidence That Chinese Factories are Struggling
A trailer loaded with container boxes travels in Ningbo port in Zhejiang province. Photo: Reuters
By William Kazer
Updated Feb. 8, 2015 2:04 a.m. ET

BEIJING—China’s exports posted a surprising drop in January, suggesting that factories were grappling with sluggish demand from abroad as well as at home, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to gain traction.

Imports also fell sharply during the month, partly due to weak demand from local industry as well as much lower oil and raw material prices, and giving the nation another big trade surplus for the month.

“China’s manufacturing sector is under great pressure as both external and domestic demand remains sluggish,” ANZ economists Li-Gang Liu and Hao Zhou said in a note to clients.

Exports fell 3.3% in January from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Sunday. This was a sharp deterioration from December’s 9.7% rise and short of an expected 4.0% increase by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The export weakness adds to the already disappointing domestic picture where a government survey of factory activity in January slipped to its weakest level since September 2012.

China’s economy grew 7.4% last year, a pace that many countries would envy but was this nation’s worst showing in 24 years. The government is widely expected to lower its growth target to about 7% this year as the global economy continues to make a slow recovery and domestic demand remains weak.

In January, exports to Southeast Asia and the U.S. were stronger, while shipments to the European Union, Japan and Hong Kong, a key transshipment market, were all weaker in dollar terms.

The yuan lost more than 2% against the dollar last year but the sharper rise of the U.S. unit against other currencies has generally carried the Chinese currency higher, increasing the prices of China’s exports in other markets and making already-difficult market conditions even tougher.

In a statement accompanying the trade data, China’s customs authorities said that a survey showed weaker confidence among exporters for the fourth consecutive month.

“This shows that exports will be facing downward pressure in the first quarter as well as the beginning of the second quarter,” the statement said.

Economists cautioned, however, that year-ago data for January may have been inflated by over-invoicing by exporters who were trying to get around currency regulations and bring more foreign exchange onshore. Last year there were market expectations of a rise in the yuan’s value against other currencies though sentiment has shifted somewhat since then. Exports climbed nearly 11% year over year in January last year, according to previously reported data.

Economists also said that comparisons could be distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, which starts in mid-February this year and fell in late January last year. Factories often shut down ahead of the holiday as migrant workers go home for the most important festival of the year.

“I think we should look at January and February as a whole to get the real picture,” said Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Group , adding that a steady recovery in the U.S. economy this year could mean that China’s exports will finish the year with about a 7% gain.

Meanwhile, imports in January slumped 19.9% from a year earlier, worsening from the 2.4% fall in December and falling far short of expectations of only a 3.3% decrease.

“The domestic industrial sector is definitely under pressure and I don’t see much improvement this year,” said Guo Jinsong, deputy general manager at Beijing Stone Automation Corp Ltd, which imports automation equipment for the steel, power, machinery and petrochemical sectors.

Heavy industry, particularly the steel sector, has seen widespread problems with overcapacity amid slumping demand.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 11:15:33

If every ship has to be somewhere then the empty ones might as well be anchored off of Long Beach.

Here’s a recent peek:

https://www.google.com/search?q=anchor+ships+long+beach&biw=1813&bih=857&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=GKfXVMjRGZLvoAS7-4GYBA&ved=0CCwQsAQ&dpr=0.75

Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 11:23:19

Here’s an article that explains that the nineteen ships that are anchored off of Long Beach are due to a slowdown by the longshoremen, but if you can get a first-hand look at the ships you will notice that most of them are sitting high in the water - meaning most of them, most of the containers they carry, are empty.

http://www.joc.com/port-news/us-ports/port-los-angeles/19-container-ships-anchored-la-lb-ports_20150131.html

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Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 11:30:58

Say it ain’t so!

Here’s an article that says “Somebody’s lying about the west coast port shut down”:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102363274#.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 11:37:24

Why would you need longshoremen to offload empty ships?

 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 12:14:17

Think about this:

If you are running a port for money OR if you are working for money by loading and unloading ships then BOTH OF YOU have an interest in getting a lot of ships loaded and unloaded because the more work you do in doing this the more money you will make.

But if there is a shortage of work, in this case a shortage of ships to load and unload, then your interest goes from doing a lot of work to milking the little bit of work that you have. And one way to do this milking is to invent an issue that justify, that explains, a slowdown.

A slowdown = milking the work.

Milking the work = making the work last.

Both parties - the port operators AND the longshoremen - benefit if the work lasts but they do not benefit if the work comes to a screeching halt.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-08 12:19:14

“justify” = “justifies”

What’s neat about needing a crisis or needing an issue to justify a dispute is that they are so easy to create.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-08 09:33:31

Gallup CEO: I May “Suddenly Disappear” For Telling Truth About Obama Unemployment Rate (Video)

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/02/gallup-ceo-i-may-suddenly-disappear-for-telling-the-truth-about-obama-unemployment-rate-video/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 10:13:23

Suicide by nailgun.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 11:05:27

Nice post dj…I just finished it including the original text of what he said before he walked it back in the interview…He is the CEO of Gallup…he has more information than most of us do since we see things through the lens of our local or personal situation…Its worth reading the original statement…

Comment by scdave
2015-02-08 11:37:31

Excerpt from his written statement;

There’s another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you’re an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 — maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn — you’re not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn’t get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find — in other words, you are severely underemployed — the government doesn’t count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren’t throwing parties to toast “falling” unemployment.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-08 20:29:39

thanks there are millions like me who work, not on the books most of the time, but we aren’t even counted. And what very little retraining programs are left they only to go the unemployed who are presently collecting and none to those who ran out their UI checks long ago.

No wonder so many try and fake a disability. its the best steady income for lots of people.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 10:15:40

Sunday Funnies from TBP. Great slams on Brian Williams.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/02/08/sunday-funnies-49/

Comment by buuters
2015-02-08 10:27:50

You gotta wonder why took it so long? From I understood, it was roughly 10 yrs ago. If it’s not a lie, you will not see in american tv period

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 11:44:04

I fail to see anything in American TV.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:28:12

Did you hear about the Zillow / Trulia merger? Will merging two firms that provide data with a pro-Realtor™ slant somehow result in less bias in the merged firm’s data?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:31:39

WARNING: PDF!

Executive Summary

The combination of Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA) will suffer, not because of deal structure or lack of synergies, but due to the defunct business model on which both firms are built – real estate listing without operating a brokerage. Such a business model has kept Zillow and Trulia from actually upending the inefficient American real estate market and causes the firms to be far too reliant on large brokers to gain increased pricing power in the event of a merger. Further, because Zillow and Trulia have failed to change the way American homes are bought and sold, the leads generated by the two sites are subpar, even when compared to broker’s sites. For these reasons, and because the market is not as deep as bulls suspect, the bullish case for Zillow and Trulia’s current valuations is inherently flawed. Expect both shares to drop as the merger draws near, and for shares in the combined firm to sell at a deep discount by mid-2015.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:47:24

Turns out Zestimates zuck.

Inaccurate Zillow ‘Zestimates’ a source of conflict over home prices
By Kenneth R. Harney

Home shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents as gauges of market value. Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff says that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8%

When “CBS This Morning” co-host Norah O’Donnell asked the chief executive of Zillow recently about the accuracy of the website’s automated property value estimates — known as Zestimates — she touched on one of the most sensitive perception gaps in American real estate.

Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Along with active listings of properties for sale, it also provides information on houses that are not on the market. You can enter the address or general location in a database of millions of homes and probably pull up key information — square footage, lot size, number of bedrooms and baths, photos, taxes — plus a Zestimate.

Shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents — and to one another — as gauges of market value. If a house for sale has a Zestimate of $350,000, a buyer might challenge the sellers’ list price of $425,000. Or a seller might demand to know from potential listing brokers why they say a property should sell for just $595,000 when Zillow has it at $685,000.

Disparities like these are daily occurrences and, in the words of one realty agent who posted on the industry blog ActiveRain, they are “the bane of my existence.” Consumers often take Zestimates “as gospel,” said Tim Freund, an agent with Dilbeck Real Estate in Westlake Village. If either the buyer or the seller won’t budge off Zillow’s estimated value, he told me, “that will kill a deal.”

Back to the question posed by O’Donnell: Are Zestimates accurate? And if they’re off the mark, how far off? Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff answered that they’re “a good starting point” but that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8%.

Whoa. That sounds high. On a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity — a lot of money on the table — and could create problems. But here’s something Rascoff was not asked about: Localized median error rates on Zestimates sometimes far exceed the national median, which raises the odds that sellers and buyers will have conflicts over pricing. Though it’s not prominently featured on the website, at the bottom of Zillow’s home page in small type is the word “Zestimates.” This section provides helpful background information along with valuation error rates by state and county — some of which are stunners.

For example, in New York County — Manhattan — the median valuation error rate is 19.9%. In Brooklyn, it’s 12.9%. In Somerset County, Md., the rate is an astounding 42%. In some rural counties in California, error rates range as high as 26%. In San Francisco it’s 11.6%. With a median home value of $1,000,800 in San Francisco, according to Zillow estimates as of December, a median error rate at this level translates into a price disparity of $116,093.

Some real estate agents have done their own studies of accuracy levels of Zillow in their local markets.

Last July, Robert Earl, an agent with Choice Homes Team in the Charlottesville, Va., area, examined selling prices and Zestimates of all 21 homes sold that month in the nearby community of Lake Monticello. On 17 sales Zillow overestimated values, including two houses that sold for 61% below the Zestimate.

In Carlsbad, Calif., Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP Codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70% of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25% of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95% of the cases, he said, “Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me.” In a second ZIP Code, Dowler found that 100% of Zestimates were inaccurate and that disparities were as large as $190,000.

16 Comments

NetWait

“In Carlsbad, Calif., Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP Codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70% of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25% of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95% of the cases, he said, “Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me.” In a second ZIP Code, Dowler found that 100% of Zestimates were inaccurate and that disparities were as large as $190,000.”

In Carlsbad, a difference of $70,000 or $190,000 might very well be only 10 percent (or less), which is pretty darned close to what the company says its error rate is. It’s misleading to place those dollar values there without acknowledging that houses in Carlsbad average a quarter of a million dollars or more.

4 minutes ago

CounterMypoint

Because Zillow is using a computational estimate with no human input attributed, they will almost always be wrong. Home values can’t be funneled down into a formula just based on what similar homes in an area sell for. That’s important but not the sole criteria.

10 minutes ago

glenn930

Zillow is just a gauge of a compilation of recent recorded home sales. It is the same formula that any appraiser will use but in a very general way. If someone doesn’t want to use a convenient FREE service, let them go pay for an appraiser for a more detailed appraisal. I’m tried of people trashing a free service like Zillow that is very convenient to use to analyze properties. Anyone with half a brain can realize that it’s just a very general tool and shouldn’t criticize it especially if they’re not paying for it.

22 minutes ago

PeterLawrence

@glenn930 Doesn’t do any good if the data is wrong.

13 minutes ago

jcphenry

Obviously sellers want as much as they can get, whether the amount is realistic or not. Zillow just offers a data point. I have found them to be sometimes wildly at odds with other estimators, like Redfin, both high and low. Comparables are an alternative if they are truly comparable. A lot of the ones I see listed as comparable houses are not, on condition, age, size and quality of the neighborhoods. Zillow takes at face value the characterization of the house by the listing agent, and doesn’t dispute what a walk through will reveal as clearly disputable claims (e.g., basements included in finished living space when the quality of the space is not comparable to the rest of the house, basement rooms called bedrooms and counted as such when they are not proper bedrooms, etc.) Tax data is only as reliable as the local taxing assessors. an independent appraisal might be helpful. If a bank won’t lend above a certain valuation, unless the property attracts all-cash buyers who feel differently about its value, that is pretty much what the house is “worth.”

23 minutes ago

Regulator1956

Zillow is a waste of time.

Next door neighbor bought their house 5 months ago for $925k. Zillow has the house at $880k now and prices have actually gone up a bit in the last 5 months.

Our house is 20% larger and is in much better shape (rebuilt in 2004), plus 10′ ceilings. Zillow has us at $923k. RE agent across the street thinks our house is worth $1.15M to $1.2M. Zillow is a joke.

48 minutes ago

elmogagootz53

Zillow is about as useful as a Real Estate agent. Most people don’t realize you can sell your home without getting ripped off for a percentage of the sale when all you need is a closing agent, that’s a flat fee!

53 minutes ago

bikemom1056

They are often way further off than 25% here in Southern California. There is often no comparison at all among neighboring properties. Older un remodeled properties of a smaller size, no amenities etc are often overpriced by more than a third or more and having nothing to do with the market value of the neighborhood. While much bigger homes with amenities, lot size etc are undervalued by the same. Those prices are no starting prices at all

1 hour ago

gowthamdebbie

Wouldn’t “comps” be a better determining factor for fair market value?

1 hour ago

jcphenry

@gowthamdebbie If they are recent and truly comparable, then yes. Year-old sales aren’t comps, and neighborhoods can vary hugely in value (particularly with waterfront properties vs non-waterfront properties in some areas.)

19 minutes ago

changming431

Slow down before signing those mortgage papers! When all cash flows are considered, renting costs less, which means you’ll have more money to save & invest. Over the long run, the stock market averages +10%/yr.

So the 20% downpayment, 3-5% closing costs, 5-6% selling costs every time you move (average US home borrower moves every 7 years), property taxes, maintenance, insurance, is all money that could have been invested.

If you look at everything (all cash flows considered), you spend less money when you rent! Between property tax, insurance, maintenance, mowing the lawn, fixing the roof, etc. etc. plus the extra utility costs you’re spending a lot of money that could be invested instead. What’s wrong with renting??

Learn from the past people! (Of course they look at me like I’m crazy when I suggest they cut a $100+ a month cable bill. Or drive a car that is 3 years old. Or only fill up their tank from the cheapest place according to GasBuddy. Or get $25/month budget car insurance from Insurance Panda. Or cook their own food instead of spending a hundred a week on restaurant food (or far more if they like the bar).)

Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller was one of the few people who accurately called both the stock market crash of 2000, AND the real estate crash of the late 2000s.

And he says that owning a home is a terrible investment.

2 hours ago

ridgeley

@changming431 Until you consider last week’s article about the Villa Carlotta in Hollywood. I don’t want to be 83 and booted out of my rental, if I have the opportunity to own, and live there until I choose to sell. Or get carried out feet first.

43 minutes ago

JakEichord

@changming431 you assume the point of living is making money. There is a certain “feeling” of comfort that comes from owning your own home. You can’t put a price on it and those “costs” that you mention regarding upkeep– well, strangely, they actually feel good to spend because the improvement is something you want and isn’t something left up to a landlord.

41 minutes ago

Surbiton

The main issue is that inaccurate Zestimates are an “End Point” and not a “Starting Point: as Spencer Rascoff claims, as Zillow refuses ALL reasonable requests by Homeowners to correct or delete and erroneous Zestimate.

When I questioned the ethics of such outrageous behavior by a $4Bn Nasdaq company Rascoff stated in an email that “thanks to the First Amendment Zillow can publish any opinion on a homes value. I still cannot believe that any CEO could be so arrogant in treating consumers with such disdain even though he accepts a Zestimate “Median Error Rate of 8%. In reality the real impact of inaccurate Zestimates is significantly higher as Clareity Consulting published a report showing that 17% of all Zestimates are more than 25% inaccurate.

It is time our elected officials caught up with technology and introduced some form of Regulation to protect Homeowners from Zillows nonsense, as a minimum there needs to be a DoNotZestimate Opt Out in the same way as Phone Users can opt out of unwanted spam phone calls by registering with DoNotCall.

2 hours ago

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 10:59:38

Are you noticing an unusually large number of pre-foreclosures headed onto the market this year?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 11:04:13

St Louis County, MO, near where Lil’ Sis owns three homes free and clear:

For Sale 3,969
Potential Listings
- Foreclosed 1,077
- Pre-Foreclosure 3,862

Foreclosed + Pre-Foreclosure = 4,939 > 3,969 = For Sale listings; what’s up with that?

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-08 12:24:00

Shadow Inventory is racist.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 11:42:52

It’s a sad day for those who look forward to the weekend dead tree paper’s “The Wall Street Journal Sunday” section, one of the few sources of sound personal finance advice in print. Today is the last edition.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 13:25:28

Sunday Journal
Goodbye From The WSJ Sunday
Thanks for Sharing 15 Years of Sundays With Us
The sun is setting on The Wall Street Journal Sunday, but we’re going out with our heads high. Photo: Zuma Press
Feb. 7, 2015 8:45 p.m. ET

This is the 805th—and last—issue of The Wall Street Journal Sunday.

It’s with the deepest sadness that I write that.

I conceived of WSJ Sunday in 1998. With the help of hundreds of colleagues at The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Co. and our partner newspapers around the country, we launched on Sept. 12, 1999. Hundreds, if not thousands, of dedicated people have sustained it over the years.

We’re going out with our heads high. We were born the largest personal-finance publication in the U.S., and we still are. We premiered in 10 partner papers reaching 4.5 million subscribers. We peaked in 2005 at 84 newspapers in nearly 11 million homes. Today’s edition runs in 67 papers going to 6.2 million households.

But even today’s rather large number masks a sobering reality: Each of those partners reaches fewer people than it used to, and advertisers are abandoning broad, middle-market media.

Our unique business arrangement with our partners—shared revenues and shared expenses—has kept us going over the years. But now, though we exit still in the black, it’s no longer enough.

In our first issue, we promised “the most timely and helpful news and commentary anywhere about managing your money.” I hope we’ve delivered.

More importantly, I hope we’ve lived up to our fundamentally democratic belief that you—a regular person of modest means and no professional financial background—can take control of your money and build a comfortable future. I hope that we have helped you make your life better, more secure, more free.

As we prepared today’s edition, I kept in mind something one of my journalism heroes, the late advice columnist Ann Landers, once said: “I would rather have my column on a thousand refrigerator doors than win a Pulitzer.’’ I’m with you, Eppie.

Even in the age of email and Facebook , there’s still a lot to be said for those yellowed clips sharing bites of ancient wisdom whenever you’re in the kitchen.

We won’t be here for you next week. So get out your scissors.

And thanks for having us in your homes these past 15 years. We’ll miss you.

—David Crook
Editor
david.crook@wsj.com

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 11:58:14

The fiddling with temperature data is the biggest science scandal ever

By Christopher Booker
10:15PM GMT 07 Feb 2015

When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified.

Two weeks ago, under the headline “How we are being tricked by flawed data on global warming”, I wrote about Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming.

This was only the latest of many examples of a practice long recognised by expert observers around the world – one that raises an ever larger question mark over the entire official surface-temperature record.

Following my last article, Homewood checked a swathe of other South American weather stations around the original three. In each case he found the same suspicious one-way “adjustments”. First these were made by the US government’s Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). They were then amplified by two of the main official surface records, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Giss) and the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), which use the warming trends to estimate temperatures across the vast regions of the Earth where no measurements are taken. Yet these are the very records on which scientists and politicians rely for their belief in “global warming”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 13:28:47

Lies don’t matter if you get the right answer.

Comment by spook
2015-02-08 16:27:35

“do I look fat in this dress?”

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2015-02-08 16:54:12

This guy isn’t necessarily a reliable source. He also denounces the ill affects of asbestos…

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/oct/13/christopher-booker

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 18:40:31

If George Monbiot says so it must be true.

George Monbiot
From Wikipedia

Activism
Climate change

Monbiot believes that drastic action coupled with strong political will is needed to combat global warming.[33] Monbiot has written that climate change is the “moral question of the 21st century” and that there is an urgent need for a raft of emergency actions he believes will stop climate change, including: setting targets on greenhouse emissions using the latest science; issuing every citizen with a ‘personal carbon ration’; new building regulations with houses built to German passivhaus standards; banning incandescent light bulbs, patio heaters, garden floodlights, and other inefficient technologies and wasteful applications; constructing large offshore wind farms; replacing the national gas grid with a hydrogen pipe network; a new national coach network to make journeys using public transport faster than using a car; all petrol stations to supply leasable electric car batteries with stations equipped with a crane service to replace depleted batteries; scrap road-building and road-widening programmes, redirecting their budgets to tackle climate change; reduce UK airport capacity by 90%; closing down all out-of-town superstores and replacing them with warehouses and a delivery system.[34]

Monbiot says the campaign against climate change is ‘unlike almost all the public protests’ that came before it:

Monbiot also thinks that economic recession can be a good thing for the planet: “Is it not time to recognise that we have reached the promised land, and should seek to stay there? Why would we want to leave this place in order to explore the blackened waste of consumer frenzy followed by ecological collapse? Surely the rational policy for the governments of the rich world is now to keep growth rates as close to zero as possible?”[36][37] While he does recognize that recession can cause hardship, he points out that economic growth can cause hardship as well. For example, the increase in sales of jet skis would count as economic growth, but they would also cause hardships such as water pollution and noise pollution.[37]

 
 
 
Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-08 12:02:01

Sometimes facts get in the way of good partisan propaganda…

===

<b<Robust economy spoiling GOP’s political strategy
Washington Post 7:03 a.m. EST February 8, 2015

WASHINGTON – A robust economy marked by a boom in jobs and a plunge in gas prices is threatening the longtime Republican strategy of lampooning President Barack Obama for holding back growth and hiring, forcing the GOP to overhaul its messaging at the beginnings of a presidential campaign.

On Friday, the government announced that 257,000 jobs had been created in January, and wages over the past year had increased 2.2 percent. The bump in wages, together with the sharp decline in gas prices, is providing financial relief that could be worth as much as $2,000 a year to an average worker.

“When Hillary Clinton runs, she’s going to say, ‘The Republicans gave us a crappy economy twice, and we fixed it twice. Why would you ever trust them again?’ ” said Kevin Hassett, a former economic adviser to GOP nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 13:37:42

We don’t know yet what kinds of lies Hillary will tell in the future, but we know what kind of lies you tell today.

If you were not in the 1%, your income has been sideways to down for the past 15 years.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Income-Distribution.php

 
Comment by buuters
2015-02-08 13:54:37

Only an idiot would believe the robust economy propaganda. I guess there are suckers born every day.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-08 15:28:54

Only an idiot would believe a Republicrat candidate backed by George Soros and Goldman Sachs would bring “change we can believe it,” but such self-same idiots elected The One twice.

 
Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-08 16:34:20

@buuters: Obama’s approval number is up from 40% to 45% in the last three months. That means about 5% of the population have decided that cheap gas and a marginally improved economy are reason enough to flip-flop from Obama=bad to Obama=good. I concur, they must be suckers and/or idiots.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 19:46:23

“Obama’s approval number”

Could anything be less shallow? Brian Williams tell you this?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 14:41:19

NYCdj has link above

“The real Obama unemployment rate has never recovered and is still above 10%.”

Gallup CEO: I May ‘Suddenly Disappear’ For Telling Truth About Obama Unemployment Rate

Real Obama unemployment rate is still above 10%

by Jim Hoft | The Gateway Pundit | February 8, 2015

Gallup CEO Jim Clifton told CNBC he might “suddenly disappear” for telling the truth about the Obama unemployment rate.

The real Obama unemployment rate has never recovered and is still above 10%.

Wall Street on Parade reported:

Years of unending news stories on U.S. government programs of surveillance,rendition and torture have apparently chilled the speech of even top business executives in the United States.

Yesterday, Jim Clifton, the Chairman and CEO of Gallup, an iconic U.S. company dating back to 1935, told CNBC that he was worried he might “suddenly disappear” and not make it home that evening if he disputed the accuracy of what the U.S. government is reporting as unemployed Americans.

The CNBC interview came one day after Clifton had penned a gutsy opinion piece on Gallup’s web site, defiantly calling the government’s 5.6 percent unemployment figure “The Big Lie” in the article’s headline. His appearance on CNBC was apparently to walk back the “lie” part of the title and reframe the jobs data as just hopelessly deceptive.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 12:10:40

Networks Fret Over UN Report on Climate Change; ‘Urgent New Warning,’ ‘Extreme Consequences’

By Matt Hadro
Published: 3/31/2014 11:00 PM ET

The networks all hyped the new United Nations report on climate change on Monday evening, touting it as a dire call for action and an “urgent new warning.”

NBC’s Brian Williams gave by far the most dramatic take on the report, even starting the Nightly News with the story. “Good evening, the world has never been spoken to quite this way,” he soberly began.

“We’ve never been warned like this before, all of us, about climate change, nor have so many countries agreed quite this much on the clear and present danger it represents,” he added. NBC littered its report with such warnings.

http://www.mrc.org/…over-un-report-climate-change-urgent-new-warning-extreme-consequences - 73k -

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 12:15:57

Rand Paul Explains What The Dollar Is Backed By: “Used Car Loans, Bad Home Loans, Distressed Assets And Derivatives”

Paul unleashed a blistering attack on the Federal Reserve

by Zero Hedge | February 8, 2015

Having recently exposed the mainstream media’s lack of objectivity in “slanted and distorted” interviews, Rand Paul has turned his focus to another staple of the status quo – his father’s arch-nemesis, The Fed. As WSJ reports, Sen. Rand Paul unleashed a blistering attack on the Federal Reserve in Iowa on Fridasy evening, calling for an audit of the institution’s books and blaming it for fueling income inequality. “Once upon a time, your dollar was as good as gold,” he explained, adding “then for many decades, they said your dollar was backed by the full faith and credit of government.” Do you know what it’s backed by now? “Used car loans, bad home loans, distressed assets and derivatives.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 13:22:38

He should stick to this topic and avoid discussing measles vaccines.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 13:31:36

Samsung SmartTVs Are Recording Your Conversations And Watching Your Movements

By BayAreaObserver Follow Sun, 8 Feb 2015, 8:11pm

Samsung’s privacy policy stipulates that customers can turn off voice recognition or the cameras pointed at them, but how many people realize that?

Owners of Samsung’s SmartTV who don’t want to reach for the remote may might want to rethink using the high-tech television’s voice recognition feature. Buried within the “Voice Recognition” section of the SmartTV’s Privacy Policy is a stipulation warning users that their voice commands will be converted to text and ultimately used to improve the voice command features.

It’s one of the most popular features on the SmartTV, but the revelation that the voice recognition program is quietly monitoring conversations uttered within earshot of the living room could make customers think twice before using the device to change the channel or browse through movies by speaking.

“Please be aware that if your spoken words include personal or other sensitive information, that information will be among the data captured and transmitted to a third party through your use of Voice Recognition,” the policy states. “You may disable Voice Recognition data collection at any time by visiting the ’settings’ menu. However, this may prevent you from using all of the Voice Recognition features.”

A spokesperson for Samsung told the Daily Beast Friday that the company adheres to all industry standards and prevents the unauthorized collection or use of user data. The company also stressed that the Voice Recognition can be turned off, though privacy advocates have long expressed concern that customers might not even realize their words are being saved in the first place.

Corynne McSherry, the intellectual property director at the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) told the Daily Beast customers could conceivably want to know more about exactly who has access to their information. “If I were the customer, I might like to know who that third party was, and I’d definitely like to know whether my words were being transmitted in a secure form,” she said.

The company doesn’t disclose which third parties it provides with user data, but stresses that “Samsung is not responsible for these providers’ privacy or security practices.” There are also questions about what Samsung means when it stipulates that information “including device identifiers” could be transmitted to third parties “to the extent necessary to provide Voice Recognition features to you.”

The EFF’s McSherry told the Daily Beast this phrasing is “worrisome” because “that language could be interpreted pretty broadly.”

Samsung has pledged that its SmartTVs only tracks information for the sake of improving the future product. Yet there’s also language in the privacy policy making it clear that SmartTVs are equipped with cameras that record customers’ facial expressions and hand gestures in order to “record information about when and how users use gesture controls so that we can evaluate the performance of these controls and improve them.”

http://www.ibtimes.com/samsung-smarttvs-are-recording-your-conversations-watching-your-movements-1808936

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 14:48:03

The Pentagon’s Excess Space

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD FEB. 7, 2015

For the past three years, officials at the Pentagon have asked Congress for permission to take stock of how many of the military’s vast network of installations across the country have become obsolete and ought to be shrunk or shuttered. The Defense Department, by far the nation’s largest and costliest bureaucracy, estimates that it could operate far more efficiently and save billions of dollars each year by shedding at least 20 percent of its real estate.

Yet, year after year, the nearly unanimous response from lawmakers has been: Don’t even think about it. They have barred the Pentagon from carrying out a detailed assessment of its properties, because closing useless bases would mean lost jobs and revenue in home districts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/opinion/sunday/the-pentagons-excess-space.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-08 15:53:15

Numbers out of China for January indicate it is falling off a cliff.

Everybody should buckle up.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 20:00:04

Yawn…

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 20:02:01

China’s exports, imports slump in January, record trade surplus
February 09, 2015
RECORDER REPORT

China’s exports fell 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped by 19.9 percent, both missing expectations by a wide margin, and resulting in a record monthly trade surplus of $60 billion.

Thinking that easing measures in Europe would boost demand for Chinese goods, analysts polled by Reuters had expected to exports to rise by 6.3 percent, and imports to fall by only 3 percent, to give a trade deficit of $48.9 billion.

Instead, exports slid 12 percent on a monthly basis, while imports dove 21.1 percent, according to the data released by the Customs Administration said on Sunday.

The decline was led by a sharp slide in commodities imports, in particular imports of coal which dropped nearly 40 percent to 16.78 million tonnes, down from December’s 27.22 million tonnes, as well as a scale back in crude oil imports, which slid 7.9 percent.

While the trade data augured badly for an economy that suffered its slowest economic growth in 24 years in 2014, analysts say strong seasonal distortions due to the Lunar New Year holiday make it difficult to interpret the data. Last year the holiday fell in January, and this year it falls in February.

China’s export numbers tend to be erratic, sharp moves in opposite directions are common and the combined January and February figures are often a more accurate gauge of the overall trend, analysts say.

Officials have said that while they expect Chinese exports to improve, the sector would continue to face headwinds in 2015.

The government is expected to lower its GDP target to around 7 percent this year, after posting 7.4 percent in 2014.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 20:04:18

2:19 pm HKT
Feb 6, 2015
Economy & Business
Early Look: Deflation Clouds Loom Over China’s Economy
Laborers work at a construction site in Shanghai, December 16, 2014.
Reuters

Curbing rapidly rising prices used to be a top priority of China’s policy makers, but things have changed. In fact, last month, the country likely experienced its slowest increase in prices since the global financial crisis.

The consumer-price index, a main gauge of inflation, likely rose only 0.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. That would be much lower than December’s on-year increase of 1.5%.

“Deflation risks are becoming more real,” Jian Chang, an economist of Barclays, said in a research note. Falling inflation has pushed up the real interest rate and increased debt burdens on companies, Ms. Chang said.

Lower oil prices, weak domestic demand and a comparison with a higher base may have trimmed January’s inflation to the lowest level since November 2009, when the CPI rose 0.6%, economists noted.

Meanwhile, deflation in the producer-price index, which tracks prices paid at the factory gate, may have continued to worsen in January, falling 3.7% on-year after a 3.3% drop in December, economists said. That means China has seen industrial deflation for nearly three years. Prolonged deflation eats into companies’ profit margins and makes it difficult for them to make payments for their purchases. Over time, it can eventually lead to job losses.

“It is time for the central bank to shift its focus from preventing financial risks to counteract low inflation and support economic growth,” Chen Xikang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a government think tank, said at an economic forum last month.

For over two years, the central bank resisted calls for aggressive easing measures for fear of worsening China’s debt problems. In recent months, however, policy makers seem to have realized the severity of the tepid inflation and slow economic growth. In November, the central bank made its first interest rate cut. On Wednesday, it surprised the market by freeing up more than $100 billion for its banks to lend.

Low inflation may not be the only headache facing policy makers. The country’s trade with the rest of the world likely faced rougher sailing last month, the same poll of economists showed.

China’s export shipments likely rose 4.0% on-year in January, down sharply from a 9.7% growth in December. A high base effect from last year, slower growth of new orders and the yuan’s strength against some currencies all point to a softer export growth, economists said.

Imports likely dropped by 3.3%, down from December’s decrease of 2.4%. China’s trade surplus will likely stay largely steady at $48.4 billion in January from $49.6 billion in December, they said.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 16:16:04

Battle of Athens (1946)

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 18:11:40

Over Half Of Young American Adults Live With Their Parents In These 12 States

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2015

in 12 U.S. states, over half of 25-year-olds lived with their parents in 2012-13.

The states: York are: New York, New Jersey, California, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Washington D.C.

What this means is that quite contrary to seasonally-adjusted expectations of a surge in household formation, young America is getting progressively older, and since it has no house to call its own, and no marriage partner either (collapsing marriage rates are one side-effect of this economic devastation) all America has to look forward to is a demographic collapse comparable to that of Japan, as an entire generation of Millennials grows older, and leaves no replacement in its wake.

The silver lining: Millennials may die alone, without a job, and crushed by debt, but at least they will have owned lots and lots of smartphones.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/over-half-young-american-adults-live-their-parents-these-12-states

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-08 20:05:41

“California”

We have one at home.

 
Comment by rms
2015-02-08 20:30:51

“You mean to say it took Federal Reserve economists countless hours of research, each of which funded with thousands of taxpayer dollars, to figure out that having $50,000 or more in debt upon graduation and a minimum wage job (if lucky) to show for that diploma means one will not be purchasing that $500,000 house? Unpossible.”

Great perspective!

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 20:24:32

Just saw video of one hell of an explosion in Ukraine.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-08 21:42:22

Ukraine: Artillery Fire, Not ‘Tactical Nuke’ Attack, Sets Off Large Donetsk Explosion

by Mike Slad
February 8, 2015 in News by Mike Slad

Source: Epoch Times

By Jack Phillips, Epoch Times | February 8, 2015
Last Updated: February 8, 2015 10:27 pm

On Sunday night, a series of YouTube videos appear to show a large explosion in Donetsk, Ukraine (several can be watched here). However, it wasn’t a “tactical nuclear weapon,” as some social media users claimed, but just a big blast–reportedly Ukrainian army artillery fire hitting an ammunition depot held by the rebel Donetsk People’s Republic.

Videos that were uploaded Feb. 8 show a massive explosion going off in the distance, with an orange-red fireball lighting up the night sky.

Ukraine: YouTube Videos, Photos Capture Huge Blast and ‘Mushroom Cloud’

While many details remain unclear, preliminary reports say it was a an artillery attack on a weapons depot owned by the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic. According to Ukrainian news site TSN.ua, right-wing politician Dmitry Yarosh said the blast killed about “200 terrorists,” destroyed 20 Grad rockets, and trucks filled with ammunition.

 
 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-02-08 22:26:40

Good night, blog.

 
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