The Housing Bubble

https://www.google.com/search?q=crate&biw=1813&bih=857&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=lkvXVMOXEdTtoAS3noGgCg&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ&dpr=0.75

Cavitation Basin

Hey, Prof, thanks for posting that bit about the Skakels yesterday. You nailed EXACTLY what I was referring to, the depravity of the “very best people” in the NY/Southern New England area. Although I never knew the Skakels personally, like just about everyone who lived in that little burg of Greenwich, I saw them around town and heard about their various adventures and knew people who knew them. But I did get to know (and wish I hadn’t) some other peeps in the same vein as the Skakels. Ugh. Really gives some insight as to how messed up the “upper crust” can be.

This

Stands to reason the Republicans are heavily funded by vice.

You would do better to sell some of your stuff to pay down your debts.

It is not time yet for gr8 deals. Stock market needs to crash by at least 50% from peak. House prices must crash.

Ive noticed lots of the free stuff is really junk…..people dont want Lift a finger to move it to the street..really lazy dumb millennials…So they hope some schulb will do it for them,

Or i’ve noticed they will put up free ads this morning because they have to be out by 5pm today, and have no clue about the weather its going to rain sleet later…but yesterday was a nice day to go out and scarf things up..

A great place to live if you’re a trust fund baby!

Zip codes: 93401 (city-data)

Estimated median household income in 2012: $47,149 (it was $31,926 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo: $47,149
CA: $58,328

Estimated per capita income in 2012: $27,207 (it was $20,386 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo city income, earnings, and wages data

Estimated median house or condo value in 2012: $496,500 (it was $252,900 in 2000)
San Luis Obispo: $496,500
CA: $349,400

Pretty good actually. LOL!

The Mummy speaks!

“all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated”

Bahahahaha … I love this blog.

the europeans created it because they were jealous of the dollar. they thought that the euro would be stronger than the dollar. rather, they ‘hoped’ it would be.

the truth is none of them understood how a fiat currency works, or they never would have created the euro in the first place. an exercise in ignorance and arrogance.

the sooner the euro dies, the better off the entire world will be.

“Eventually” we’ll all be dead.

Greenspam doesn’t know anything. I have a suspicion that somehow auntie Yelling will bailout Greece to remain in euro.

Now is when things get interesting. Has oil bottomed out, are is this one great big, protracted dead cat bounce destined to end in further price declines?

The one former poster who could give a definite answer to the question appears to no longer be interested in it.

“We all” or as they say in Pittsburgh, “We’uns”.

The elite banking class will lose their a$$.

Stick it to The Man who loaned you the money!

Still have to pay income tax on that forgiven debt, right?

Nuts.

Keep your wallet in your pocket and get out of debt quickly.

“… less than $4 million in annual sales, and a market valuation of $108 million.”

(doin’ some math here …)

OMG! That’s a price/sales ratio of over 28!

Bahahahahaha … send them to me!

Looks like America’s middle-class taxpayers will be put on the hook for billions in new “loan guarantees” for “aid” that will disappear into the Swiss bank accounts of the kletocrat oligarchs running the show in Kiev.

If you had a choice right now between stashing all your mattress money in bitcoin or Ukraine currency, which would it be?

From the article, Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, it’s been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the country’s nonexistent growth. That last part’s not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraine’s economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little that’s left. It’s not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. It’s that it can’t afford to fight against what’s still it’s biggest trading partner—Russia…

Two things stand out: (1) factory heavy east (2) biggest trading partner.

Someone in Ukraine and the west miscalculated badly about the bringing spring to Ukraine.

“Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days”

In that case I’ll take TWO mail order brides!

‘Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days’ ??

Want a sobering take on the situation…Watch interviews on Fareed today on CNN…Worst crisis since the bay of pigs is their take on it…

Yep, I like to watch and listen to music videos on youtube from time to time, mostly pre 1990s, unless it’s something like Live From Daryl’s House.

1. Dumb ‘em down.

2. Prosper.

All government policies and the prevailing culture here now seems to simply encourage weakness.

Are we a strong people who can get things done or are we an ignorant, obese, pill-popping, distracted, lazy, foolish people? Physically, mentally, spiritually, emotionally and financially weak.

Yields jump, curve flattens
February 08, 2015
RECORDER REPORT

US Treasury yields jumped on Friday, and the yield curve flattened after a report showed that US job growth rose solidly in January and wages rebounded strongly, raising some bets that the Federal Reserve may act sooner to raise interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257,000 last month, the US Labour Department said on Friday. Data for November and December were revised to show 147,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

Hourly wages increased 12 cents last month for a 2.2 percent increase from a year earlier, the largest such gain since August. They had fallen 5 cents in December. “By any measure, this was an extremely good report,” said Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. “It adds some additional evidence for those folks wondering what the fate of wages is going to be, that you probably are looking at some modest wage pressures here.”

Short- and intermediate-dated debt took the brunt of the selling as some analysts and investors worried that current yields failed to reflect the possibility that the Fed may raise rates in the coming months if employment trends continue. Two-year note yields increased to 0.648 percent from 0.528 percent, their highest since January 7. The 12-basis-point increase was the largest one-day move in nearly five years.
…

Treasuries Close Sharply Lower Following Upbeat Jobs Data
2/6/2015 3:44 PM ET

Treasuries moved sharply lower over the course of the trading day on Friday as traders reacted to the release of better than expected jobs data.

Bond prices showed a substantial move to the downside in early trading and remained stuck firmly in the red throughout the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 12.3 basis points to 1.938 percent.

With the increase, the ten-year yield climbed further off its recent lows, reaching its highest closing level in almost a month.

The continued pullback by treasuries came following the release of a report from the Labor Department showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of January.

The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 257,000 jobs in January compared to economist estimates for an increase about 230,000 jobs.

Revised data also showed that employment in November and December jumped by 423,000 jobs and 329,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 147,000 jobs.

However, the Labor Department also said the unemployment rate edged up to 5.7 percent in January from a six-year low of 5.6 percent in December. The rate had been expected to remain unchanged.

The unexpected uptick by the unemployment rate reflected a substantial increase by the size of the labor force, which surged up by 1.05 million.

With the report offsetting recent concerns about the economy, bond traders worried the data may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, “In general, while it’s important not to over-react to one data point, there are exceptions and this is one of them.”

“Employment growth is clearly on fire and its beginning to put upward pressure on wage growth,” he added. “The Fed can’t wait much longer in that environment, particularly not when interest rates are starting at near-zero.”
…

BOND REPORT: 10-year Treasury Yield Hits 4-week High After Strong Jobs Report
By Joseph Adinolfi, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)–Treasury prices fell Friday, with the 10-year yield rising to its highest intraday level in four weeks, after the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report for January came in stronger than expected.

The 10-year yield was up 12.6 basis points to 1.941% in recent trade, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year’s price is down more than 1%, the largest one-day loss since May 2014.
…

http://eaglefordtexas.com/news/id/145470/plummeting-oil-prices-cut-north-dakota-revenue-expectations-half/

Drill baby drill!

Greece Could Run Out of Cash in Weeks — Update
By Matthew Karnitschnig And Nektaria Stamouli in Athens And Bertrand Benoit in Berlin
Saturday, 7 February 2015

Greece warned it was on course to run out of money within weeks if it doesn’t gain access to additional funds, effectively daring Germany and its other European creditors to let it fail and stumble out of the euro.

Greek Economy Minister George Stathakis said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that a recent drop in tax revenue and other government income had pushed the country’s finances to the brink of collapse.

“We will have liquidity problems in March if taxes don’t improve,” Mr. Stathakis said. “Then we’ll see how harsh Europe is.”

Government revenue has declined sharply in recent weeks, as Greeks with unpaid tax bills hold back from settling arrears, hoping the new leftist government will cut them a better deal. Many also aren’t paying an unpopular property tax that their new leaders campaigned against.

Tax revenue dropped 7%, or about EUR1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), in December from November and likely fell by a similar percentage in January, the minister said.

Other senior Greek officials said the country would have trouble paying pensions and other charges beyond February.

Greece has made no secret of its precarious financial position, but the minister’s comments suggest the country has even less time than many policy makers thought to resolve its standoff with Europe.

Eurozone officials have asked Greece to come up with a specific funding plan by Wednesday, when finance ministers have called a special meeting to discuss the country’s financial situation.

The country needs EUR4 billion to EUR5 billion to tide it over until June, by which time it hopes to negotiate a broader deal with creditors, Mr. Stathakis said, adding that he believes “logic will prevail.”

If it doesn’t, he warned, Greece “will be the first country to go bankrupt over EUR5 billion.”
…

Lot more than you ever did. But Auntie Yelling’s been very kind to my kinds.

What did you pay in federal taxes this year?

I haven’t paid much this year. Of course the year is only about six weeks old.

China’s imports slump, capping dismal January trade performance
By Pete Sweeney
SHANGHAI Sun Feb 8, 2015 6:34am EST
A trailer loaded with container boxes travels in Ningbo port in Zhejiang province, January 22, 2015. REUTERS/William Hong

(Reuters) - China’s trade performance slumped in January, with exports falling 3.3 percent from year-ago levels while imports tumbled 19.9 percent, far worse than analysts had expected and highlighting deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.

Largely as a result of the sharply lower imports - particularly of coal, oil and commodities - China posted a record monthly trade surplus of $60 billion.

The data contrasted sharply with a Reuters poll which showed analysts expected exports to gain 6.3 percent and the slowdown in imports to slow to 3 percent, following a better-than-expected showing in December. The poll had also forecast a trade surplus of $48.9 billion.

The slide in imports is the sharpest since May 2009, when Chinese factories were still slashing inventories in reaction to the global financial crisis. Exports have not produced a negative annual reading since March 2014.

The dismal trade performance will increase concerns that an economic slowdown in China - originally considered a desirable adjustment away from an investment-intensive export model toward one based on domestic consumption - is at risk of derailing.

The government is expected to lower its GDP target to around 7 percent this year, after posting 7.4 percent in 2014 - the slowest pace in 24 years.
…

‘Made in China’ Is Increasingly Becoming ‘Made in USA’
By Heesun Wee

Later this year along the banks of the James River outside Richmond, Virginia, a paper products maker based in northeastern China will begin construction on a new U.S. manufacturing plant. The factory will churn the region’s straw and corn stalks into household products including napkins, tissue and organic fertilizer—all marked “Made in the USA.”

Shandong Tranlin Paper’s new U.S. factory is forecast to generate about 2,000 new jobs by 2020, and is the latest Chinese company to invest in American manufacturing.

Chinese foreign direct investment in the U.S. totaled $12 billion last year, topping $10 billion for the second year in a row, according to the Rhodium Group, which tracks Chinese money flows into the U.S. It was three years ago in 2012, when—for the first time ever—Chinese foreign investment in America lapped investment flows in the other direction to China.

Asian investment in America is nothing new. Japanese companies led the way in the 1980s, partly to evade tariffs. Avoiding international taxes on goods again is partly why Chinese businesses are coming to America. But Chinese investment in the U.S. is striking and different in other ways—and already altering pockets of domestic manufacturing.

Chinese investment in America largely has been tied to mergers and acquisitions. Chinese meat producer Shuanghui Group bought Smithfield Foods for roughly $4.72 billion. But some Chinese companies are taking another tack and building manufacturing plants—from the ground up—on U.S. soil. They’re spending hundreds of millions on new projects and expansions of existing U.S. subsidiaries combined have jumped to five to nine annually, from virtually none a few years ago, according to Rhodium’s research.

China moving up the food chain

Beyond tariff jumping, the larger question remains why?

Known more for low-cost manufacturing and massive shipping containers of cheap toys and textiles, China wants to move up the food chain. China’s gross domestic product for 2014 grew 7.4 percent—the weakest performance in 24 years. As the nation’s economy slows, China wants to push into higher-valued products including pricey construction machinery. But production and sales of higher-margin goods require advanced tech skills and innovation, sometimes more easily achieved outside China, where low-cost production reigns.

And in an ironic twist on offshored American jobs, some Chinese companies are pursuing “Made in USA” branding. “Foreign brands and quality control are increasingly important for China’s affluent middle class,” according to Rhodium’s research.
…

ft dot com
February 8, 2015 9:32 am
China exports fall as trade surplus hits record
Charles Clover in Beijing
Shipping containers sit stacked among gantry cranes at the Kwai Tsing Container Terminals in Hong Kong, China, on Monday, Nov. 24, 2014. The Hong Kong government is scheduled to release trade statistics for October on Nov. 25. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg©Bloomberg

China’s slumping economy hit trade in January. Imports and exports came in worse than anticipated and the monthly trade surplus bulged to a record $60bn as a survey published on Sunday revealed that manufacturing, a key sector to the Chinese economy, contracted in January for the first time in more than two years.

China’s exports fell 3.3 per cent in January from a year earlier, while imports slumped by 19.9 per cent, according to data released on Sunday by the Customs Administration. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected exports to rise by 6.3 per cent and imports to fall only 3 per cent, to give a trade deficit of $48.9bn.

The majority of the slump in imports was the result of falling commodity prices, especially coal and oil, according to analysts at ANZ Research.

China’s iron ore imports and crude oil imports fell by 9.4 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively by volume. However, in value terms, iron ore imports dropped by 50.3 per cent and crude oil imports declined by 41.8 per cent.

The data reflect the cooling of China’s economic growth engine — last year the country’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest rate in more than two decades.

“China’s manufacturing sector is under great pressure as both external and domestic demand remains sluggish,” said ANZ in a statement.
…

Asia Economy
China’s Exports Post Surprise Drop in January
More Evidence That Chinese Factories are Struggling
A trailer loaded with container boxes travels in Ningbo port in Zhejiang province. Photo: Reuters
By William Kazer
Updated Feb. 8, 2015 2:04 a.m. ET

BEIJING—China’s exports posted a surprising drop in January, suggesting that factories were grappling with sluggish demand from abroad as well as at home, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to gain traction.

Imports also fell sharply during the month, partly due to weak demand from local industry as well as much lower oil and raw material prices, and giving the nation another big trade surplus for the month.

“China’s manufacturing sector is under great pressure as both external and domestic demand remains sluggish,” ANZ economists Li-Gang Liu and Hao Zhou said in a note to clients.

Exports fell 3.3% in January from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Sunday. This was a sharp deterioration from December’s 9.7% rise and short of an expected 4.0% increase by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The export weakness adds to the already disappointing domestic picture where a government survey of factory activity in January slipped to its weakest level since September 2012.

China’s economy grew 7.4% last year, a pace that many countries would envy but was this nation’s worst showing in 24 years. The government is widely expected to lower its growth target to about 7% this year as the global economy continues to make a slow recovery and domestic demand remains weak.

In January, exports to Southeast Asia and the U.S. were stronger, while shipments to the European Union, Japan and Hong Kong, a key transshipment market, were all weaker in dollar terms.

The yuan lost more than 2% against the dollar last year but the sharper rise of the U.S. unit against other currencies has generally carried the Chinese currency higher, increasing the prices of China’s exports in other markets and making already-difficult market conditions even tougher.

In a statement accompanying the trade data, China’s customs authorities said that a survey showed weaker confidence among exporters for the fourth consecutive month.

“This shows that exports will be facing downward pressure in the first quarter as well as the beginning of the second quarter,” the statement said.

Economists cautioned, however, that year-ago data for January may have been inflated by over-invoicing by exporters who were trying to get around currency regulations and bring more foreign exchange onshore. Last year there were market expectations of a rise in the yuan’s value against other currencies though sentiment has shifted somewhat since then. Exports climbed nearly 11% year over year in January last year, according to previously reported data.

Economists also said that comparisons could be distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, which starts in mid-February this year and fell in late January last year. Factories often shut down ahead of the holiday as migrant workers go home for the most important festival of the year.

“I think we should look at January and February as a whole to get the real picture,” said Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Group , adding that a steady recovery in the U.S. economy this year could mean that China’s exports will finish the year with about a 7% gain.

Meanwhile, imports in January slumped 19.9% from a year earlier, worsening from the 2.4% fall in December and falling far short of expectations of only a 3.3% decrease.

“The domestic industrial sector is definitely under pressure and I don’t see much improvement this year,” said Guo Jinsong, deputy general manager at Beijing Stone Automation Corp Ltd, which imports automation equipment for the steel, power, machinery and petrochemical sectors.

Heavy industry, particularly the steel sector, has seen widespread problems with overcapacity amid slumping demand.
…

Suicide by nailgun.

Nice post dj…I just finished it including the original text of what he said before he walked it back in the interview…He is the CEO of Gallup…he has more information than most of us do since we see things through the lens of our local or personal situation…Its worth reading the original statement…

You gotta wonder why took it so long? From I understood, it was roughly 10 yrs ago. If it’s not a lie, you will not see in american tv period

WARNING: PDF!

Executive Summary

The combination of Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA) will suffer, not because of deal structure or lack of synergies, but due to the defunct business model on which both firms are built – real estate listing without operating a brokerage. Such a business model has kept Zillow and Trulia from actually upending the inefficient American real estate market and causes the firms to be far too reliant on large brokers to gain increased pricing power in the event of a merger. Further, because Zillow and Trulia have failed to change the way American homes are bought and sold, the leads generated by the two sites are subpar, even when compared to broker’s sites. For these reasons, and because the market is not as deep as bulls suspect, the bullish case for Zillow and Trulia’s current valuations is inherently flawed. Expect both shares to drop as the merger draws near, and for shares in the combined firm to sell at a deep discount by mid-2015.

Turns out Zestimates zuck.

Inaccurate Zillow ‘Zestimates’ a source of conflict over home prices
By Kenneth R. Harney

Home shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents as gauges of market value. Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff says that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8%

When “CBS This Morning” co-host Norah O’Donnell asked the chief executive of Zillow recently about the accuracy of the website’s automated property value estimates — known as Zestimates — she touched on one of the most sensitive perception gaps in American real estate.

Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Along with active listings of properties for sale, it also provides information on houses that are not on the market. You can enter the address or general location in a database of millions of homes and probably pull up key information — square footage, lot size, number of bedrooms and baths, photos, taxes — plus a Zestimate.

Shoppers, sellers and buyers routinely quote Zestimates to realty agents — and to one another — as gauges of market value. If a house for sale has a Zestimate of $350,000, a buyer might challenge the sellers’ list price of $425,000. Or a seller might demand to know from potential listing brokers why they say a property should sell for just $595,000 when Zillow has it at $685,000.

Disparities like these are daily occurrences and, in the words of one realty agent who posted on the industry blog ActiveRain, they are “the bane of my existence.” Consumers often take Zestimates “as gospel,” said Tim Freund, an agent with Dilbeck Real Estate in Westlake Village. If either the buyer or the seller won’t budge off Zillow’s estimated value, he told me, “that will kill a deal.”

Back to the question posed by O’Donnell: Are Zestimates accurate? And if they’re off the mark, how far off? Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff answered that they’re “a good starting point” but that nationwide Zestimates have a “median error rate” of about 8%.

Whoa. That sounds high. On a $500,000 house, that would be a $40,000 disparity — a lot of money on the table — and could create problems. But here’s something Rascoff was not asked about: Localized median error rates on Zestimates sometimes far exceed the national median, which raises the odds that sellers and buyers will have conflicts over pricing. Though it’s not prominently featured on the website, at the bottom of Zillow’s home page in small type is the word “Zestimates.” This section provides helpful background information along with valuation error rates by state and county — some of which are stunners.

For example, in New York County — Manhattan — the median valuation error rate is 19.9%. In Brooklyn, it’s 12.9%. In Somerset County, Md., the rate is an astounding 42%. In some rural counties in California, error rates range as high as 26%. In San Francisco it’s 11.6%. With a median home value of $1,000,800 in San Francisco, according to Zillow estimates as of December, a median error rate at this level translates into a price disparity of $116,093.

Some real estate agents have done their own studies of accuracy levels of Zillow in their local markets.

Last July, Robert Earl, an agent with Choice Homes Team in the Charlottesville, Va., area, examined selling prices and Zestimates of all 21 homes sold that month in the nearby community of Lake Monticello. On 17 sales Zillow overestimated values, including two houses that sold for 61% below the Zestimate.

In Carlsbad, Calif., Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP Codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70% of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25% of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95% of the cases, he said, “Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me.” In a second ZIP Code, Dowler found that 100% of Zestimates were inaccurate and that disparities were as large as $190,000.
…
16 Comments

NetWait

“In Carlsbad, Calif., Jeff Dowler, an agent with Solutions Real Estate, did a similar analysis on sales in two ZIP Codes. He found that Zestimates came in below the selling price 70% of the time, with disparities ranging as high as $70,000. In 25% of the sales, Zestimates were higher than the contract price. In 95% of the cases, he said, “Zestimates were wrong. That does not inspire a lot of confidence, at least not for me.” In a second ZIP Code, Dowler found that 100% of Zestimates were inaccurate and that disparities were as large as $190,000.”

In Carlsbad, a difference of $70,000 or $190,000 might very well be only 10 percent (or less), which is pretty darned close to what the company says its error rate is. It’s misleading to place those dollar values there without acknowledging that houses in Carlsbad average a quarter of a million dollars or more.

4 minutes ago

CounterMypoint

Because Zillow is using a computational estimate with no human input attributed, they will almost always be wrong. Home values can’t be funneled down into a formula just based on what similar homes in an area sell for. That’s important but not the sole criteria.

10 minutes ago

glenn930

Zillow is just a gauge of a compilation of recent recorded home sales. It is the same formula that any appraiser will use but in a very general way. If someone doesn’t want to use a convenient FREE service, let them go pay for an appraiser for a more detailed appraisal. I’m tried of people trashing a free service like Zillow that is very convenient to use to analyze properties. Anyone with half a brain can realize that it’s just a very general tool and shouldn’t criticize it especially if they’re not paying for it.

22 minutes ago

PeterLawrence

@glenn930 Doesn’t do any good if the data is wrong.

13 minutes ago

jcphenry

Obviously sellers want as much as they can get, whether the amount is realistic or not. Zillow just offers a data point. I have found them to be sometimes wildly at odds with other estimators, like Redfin, both high and low. Comparables are an alternative if they are truly comparable. A lot of the ones I see listed as comparable houses are not, on condition, age, size and quality of the neighborhoods. Zillow takes at face value the characterization of the house by the listing agent, and doesn’t dispute what a walk through will reveal as clearly disputable claims (e.g., basements included in finished living space when the quality of the space is not comparable to the rest of the house, basement rooms called bedrooms and counted as such when they are not proper bedrooms, etc.) Tax data is only as reliable as the local taxing assessors. an independent appraisal might be helpful. If a bank won’t lend above a certain valuation, unless the property attracts all-cash buyers who feel differently about its value, that is pretty much what the house is “worth.”

23 minutes ago

Regulator1956

Zillow is a waste of time.

Next door neighbor bought their house 5 months ago for $925k. Zillow has the house at $880k now and prices have actually gone up a bit in the last 5 months.

Our house is 20% larger and is in much better shape (rebuilt in 2004), plus 10′ ceilings. Zillow has us at $923k. RE agent across the street thinks our house is worth $1.15M to $1.2M. Zillow is a joke.

48 minutes ago

elmogagootz53

Zillow is about as useful as a Real Estate agent. Most people don’t realize you can sell your home without getting ripped off for a percentage of the sale when all you need is a closing agent, that’s a flat fee!

53 minutes ago

bikemom1056

They are often way further off than 25% here in Southern California. There is often no comparison at all among neighboring properties. Older un remodeled properties of a smaller size, no amenities etc are often overpriced by more than a third or more and having nothing to do with the market value of the neighborhood. While much bigger homes with amenities, lot size etc are undervalued by the same. Those prices are no starting prices at all

1 hour ago

gowthamdebbie

Wouldn’t “comps” be a better determining factor for fair market value?

1 hour ago

jcphenry

@gowthamdebbie If they are recent and truly comparable, then yes. Year-old sales aren’t comps, and neighborhoods can vary hugely in value (particularly with waterfront properties vs non-waterfront properties in some areas.)

19 minutes ago

changming431

Slow down before signing those mortgage papers! When all cash flows are considered, renting costs less, which means you’ll have more money to save & invest. Over the long run, the stock market averages +10%/yr.

So the 20% downpayment, 3-5% closing costs, 5-6% selling costs every time you move (average US home borrower moves every 7 years), property taxes, maintenance, insurance, is all money that could have been invested.

If you look at everything (all cash flows considered), you spend less money when you rent! Between property tax, insurance, maintenance, mowing the lawn, fixing the roof, etc. etc. plus the extra utility costs you’re spending a lot of money that could be invested instead. What’s wrong with renting??

Learn from the past people! (Of course they look at me like I’m crazy when I suggest they cut a $100+ a month cable bill. Or drive a car that is 3 years old. Or only fill up their tank from the cheapest place according to GasBuddy. Or get $25/month budget car insurance from Insurance Panda. Or cook their own food instead of spending a hundred a week on restaurant food (or far more if they like the bar).)

Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller was one of the few people who accurately called both the stock market crash of 2000, AND the real estate crash of the late 2000s.

And he says that owning a home is a terrible investment.

2 hours ago

ridgeley

@changming431 Until you consider last week’s article about the Villa Carlotta in Hollywood. I don’t want to be 83 and booted out of my rental, if I have the opportunity to own, and live there until I choose to sell. Or get carried out feet first.

43 minutes ago

JakEichord

@changming431 you assume the point of living is making money. There is a certain “feeling” of comfort that comes from owning your own home. You can’t put a price on it and those “costs” that you mention regarding upkeep– well, strangely, they actually feel good to spend because the improvement is something you want and isn’t something left up to a landlord.

41 minutes ago

Surbiton

The main issue is that inaccurate Zestimates are an “End Point” and not a “Starting Point: as Spencer Rascoff claims, as Zillow refuses ALL reasonable requests by Homeowners to correct or delete and erroneous Zestimate.

When I questioned the ethics of such outrageous behavior by a $4Bn Nasdaq company Rascoff stated in an email that “thanks to the First Amendment Zillow can publish any opinion on a homes value. I still cannot believe that any CEO could be so arrogant in treating consumers with such disdain even though he accepts a Zestimate “Median Error Rate of 8%. In reality the real impact of inaccurate Zestimates is significantly higher as Clareity Consulting published a report showing that 17% of all Zestimates are more than 25% inaccurate.

It is time our elected officials caught up with technology and introduced some form of Regulation to protect Homeowners from Zillows nonsense, as a minimum there needs to be a DoNotZestimate Opt Out in the same way as Phone Users can opt out of unwanted spam phone calls by registering with DoNotCall.

2 hours ago

St Louis County, MO, near where Lil’ Sis owns three homes free and clear:

For Sale 3,969
Potential Listings
- Foreclosed 1,077
- Pre-Foreclosure 3,862

Foreclosed + Pre-Foreclosure = 4,939 > 3,969 = For Sale listings; what’s up with that?

Sunday Journal
Goodbye From The WSJ Sunday
Thanks for Sharing 15 Years of Sundays With Us
The sun is setting on The Wall Street Journal Sunday, but we’re going out with our heads high. Photo: Zuma Press
Feb. 7, 2015 8:45 p.m. ET

This is the 805th—and last—issue of The Wall Street Journal Sunday.

It’s with the deepest sadness that I write that.

I conceived of WSJ Sunday in 1998. With the help of hundreds of colleagues at The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Co. and our partner newspapers around the country, we launched on Sept. 12, 1999. Hundreds, if not thousands, of dedicated people have sustained it over the years.

We’re going out with our heads high. We were born the largest personal-finance publication in the U.S., and we still are. We premiered in 10 partner papers reaching 4.5 million subscribers. We peaked in 2005 at 84 newspapers in nearly 11 million homes. Today’s edition runs in 67 papers going to 6.2 million households.

But even today’s rather large number masks a sobering reality: Each of those partners reaches fewer people than it used to, and advertisers are abandoning broad, middle-market media.

Our unique business arrangement with our partners—shared revenues and shared expenses—has kept us going over the years. But now, though we exit still in the black, it’s no longer enough.

In our first issue, we promised “the most timely and helpful news and commentary anywhere about managing your money.” I hope we’ve delivered.

More importantly, I hope we’ve lived up to our fundamentally democratic belief that you—a regular person of modest means and no professional financial background—can take control of your money and build a comfortable future. I hope that we have helped you make your life better, more secure, more free.

As we prepared today’s edition, I kept in mind something one of my journalism heroes, the late advice columnist Ann Landers, once said: “I would rather have my column on a thousand refrigerator doors than win a Pulitzer.’’ I’m with you, Eppie.

Even in the age of email and Facebook , there’s still a lot to be said for those yellowed clips sharing bites of ancient wisdom whenever you’re in the kitchen.

We won’t be here for you next week. So get out your scissors.

And thanks for having us in your homes these past 15 years. We’ll miss you.

—David Crook
Editor
david.crook@wsj.com

Lies don’t matter if you get the right answer.

This guy isn’t necessarily a reliable source. He also denounces the ill affects of asbestos…

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/oct/13/christopher-booker

We don’t know yet what kinds of lies Hillary will tell in the future, but we know what kind of lies you tell today.

If you were not in the 1%, your income has been sideways to down for the past 15 years.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Income-Distribution.php

Only an idiot would believe the robust economy propaganda. I guess there are suckers born every day.

NYCdj has link above

“The real Obama unemployment rate has never recovered and is still above 10%.”

Gallup CEO: I May ‘Suddenly Disappear’ For Telling Truth About Obama Unemployment Rate

Real Obama unemployment rate is still above 10%

by Jim Hoft | The Gateway Pundit | February 8, 2015

Gallup CEO Jim Clifton told CNBC he might “suddenly disappear” for telling the truth about the Obama unemployment rate.

The real Obama unemployment rate has never recovered and is still above 10%.

Wall Street on Parade reported:

Years of unending news stories on U.S. government programs of surveillance,rendition and torture have apparently chilled the speech of even top business executives in the United States.

Yesterday, Jim Clifton, the Chairman and CEO of Gallup, an iconic U.S. company dating back to 1935, told CNBC that he was worried he might “suddenly disappear” and not make it home that evening if he disputed the accuracy of what the U.S. government is reporting as unemployed Americans.

The CNBC interview came one day after Clifton had penned a gutsy opinion piece on Gallup’s web site, defiantly calling the government’s 5.6 percent unemployment figure “The Big Lie” in the article’s headline. His appearance on CNBC was apparently to walk back the “lie” part of the title and reframe the jobs data as just hopelessly deceptive.

He should stick to this topic and avoid discussing measles vaccines.

Yawn…

“California”

We have one at home.

“You mean to say it took Federal Reserve economists countless hours of research, each of which funded with thousands of taxpayer dollars, to figure out that having $50,000 or more in debt upon graduation and a minimum wage job (if lucky) to show for that diploma means one will not be purchasing that $500,000 house? Unpossible.”

Great perspective!

Ukraine: Artillery Fire, Not ‘Tactical Nuke’ Attack, Sets Off Large Donetsk Explosion

by Mike Slad
February 8, 2015 in News by Mike Slad

Source: Epoch Times

By Jack Phillips, Epoch Times | February 8, 2015
Last Updated: February 8, 2015 10:27 pm

On Sunday night, a series of YouTube videos appear to show a large explosion in Donetsk, Ukraine (several can be watched here). However, it wasn’t a “tactical nuclear weapon,” as some social media users claimed, but just a big blast–reportedly Ukrainian army artillery fire hitting an ammunition depot held by the rebel Donetsk People’s Republic.

Videos that were uploaded Feb. 8 show a massive explosion going off in the distance, with an orange-red fireball lighting up the night sky.

Ukraine: YouTube Videos, Photos Capture Huge Blast and ‘Mushroom Cloud’

While many details remain unclear, preliminary reports say it was a an artillery attack on a weapons depot owned by the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic. According to Ukrainian news site TSN.ua, right-wing politician Dmitry Yarosh said the blast killed about “200 terrorists,” destroyed 20 Grad rockets, and trucks filled with ammunition.