February 12, 2015

Back To Earth

Marketplace reports on Florida. “Downtown Miami’s condo explosion turns out to run on its own financial logic. Peter Zalewski runs Crane Spotters, an information service on the building boom, explains that the bulk of these condos are not residences. They are apartment-shaped financial instruments. ‘In New York, you trade stocks. In Chicago we trade commodities. Miami, we trade condos,’ he says. ‘This is what we do,’ he continues. ‘We trade down here. These are traders who are not looking to live the American dream with a family of four and a dog. They’re looking to make a hundred-grand a unit … with virtually nothing being done but making a phone call to your broker in Miami and having him unload it to somebody else’s broker, who’s representing somebody in Russia.’”

From The Lens in Louisiana. “The following sentence in a T-P/Nola.com article about a conflict between Jax Brewery condo owners and a bar in the building caught my eye: ‘In addition to Earl and Jonathan Weber, there is only one other full-time resident living in the building, according to court documents.’”

“In other words, only three of the 25 units in the Jax Brewery building have full-time occupants. The remainder are presumably pieds-à-terre, apartments owned by wealthy out-of-state residents who may visit no more than a few weekends a year or investors who may rent them out on the illicit short term rental market. New Orleanians are already seeing escalating real estate prices on the high end that drive broader increases in housing costs farther down-market. Combined with the loss of housing to illegal short-term rentals, many long-time local residents can no longer find affordable housing in New Orleans.”

The Washington Post. “The Washington-area real estate market in January made steady gains in sales, inventory and prices, according to RealEstate Business Intelligence. Inventory, which had fallen sharply a few years ago, continued to rebound. There were 7,949 active listings, 1,204 more than the year before. There were also 1.7 percent more new listings. Buyers were also able to win a slight negotiating edge over pricing – sellers were getting 95.7 percent of their original asking price, down from 96.6 percent the year before. Houses sold in an average of 65 days – up from 55 days a year ago – perhaps spurring sellers to lower their prices to close the deal.”

“‘It’s an expensive area — more expensive homes sometimes don’t have as much demand as the more affordable segment,’ said Corey Hart, RBI’s senior product manager. ‘It could be there are fewer buyers competing for those higher-price segments that we see.’”

Impact News in Texas. “The energy industry makes up 32 percent of The Woodlands area job market among major employment sectors, making it the economic leader in the area. More than 8,800 workers are employed in the oil and gas industry in The Woodlands area. By all indications—unemployment rate, office space occupancy and interest from companies looking to do business in The Woodlands—the falling price of oil has had little effect on the area’s economic climate.”

“The local real estate market, which by some measures was the strongest it has ever been in 2014, is also expected to prove its resilience through the current energy downturn, said Ken Brand, sales manager for Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene Realtors. ‘Oil prices are falling and some people are concerned,’ Brand said. ‘But the market is not going to come back to Earth. There are thousands of people moving to the area, and they have to buy a home.’”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “Tampa Bay led all major U.S. metro areas in completed foreclosures last year as lenders took back nearly 18,400 homes, houses and condos — 5.3 percent more than in 2013. Irwin Wilensky, whose SunRaye Realty has the listings for 200 bank-owned homes throughout the region, said judges seem to be speeding up foreclosures of investor-owned properties — often second homes that ‘John and Mary bought’ at the peak of the boom — as well as of long-vacant ‘zombie’ homes. ‘Pinellas in particular is trying to be aggressive in clearing the books of those properties because they don’t benefit anybody,’ Wilensky said.”

The Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Foreclosures jumped more than 100 percent in January compared to December both in Phoenix and statewide, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity both locally and statewide are at 20-month highs as banks step up their repossessions, auctions and filing of default notices. The jump in foreclosures comes as the Phoenix housing market tries to shake off a slow 2014 where low demand for homes and tough mortgage qualifications stymied sales.”

“Foreclosure activity was also up in states such as Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland and California and metropolitan areas such as St. Louis, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The worst cities for foreclosures include Atlantic City, Las Vegas and eight Florida markets including Tampa, Orlando, Miami and Jacksonville.”

“‘The year-over-year increase in REOs in January was the first annual increase nationwide following 25 consecutive months of declines, getting the foreclosure spring cleaning we anticipated in our last foreclosure report off to a quick start in 2015,’ said Daren Blomquist, VP at RealtyTrac. ‘Meanwhile, the number of future foreclosure auctions scheduled in January continued to increase in many states, foreshadowing more foreclosure spring cleaning to come in the next several months in those states.’”




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33 Comments »

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 05:52:15

“The local real estate market, which by some measures was the strongest it has ever been in 2014, is also expected to prove its resilience through the current energy downturn, said Ken Brand, sales manager for Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene Realtors. ‘Oil prices are falling and some people are concerned,’ Brand said. ‘But the market is not going to come back to Earth. There are thousands of people moving to the area, and they have to buy a home.’”

Collapsing oil prices, collapsing housing demand, housing prices sinking.

How long will it take before we read about this realtard going down for fraud like thousands of others?

Denton County (Dallas/FTW) Sale Prices Turn Negative on Year; Plunge 5% QoQ

http://www.zillow.com/denton-county-tx/home-values/

Comment by taxpayers
2015-02-12 10:49:37

the oil bust will take 3 months to show. When markets decline the first thing that happens is transactions stop and recording takes forever.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 19:16:43

It’s showing up early in this case.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 05:58:05

“They’re looking to make a hundred-grand a unit … with virtually nothing being done”

It’s called fraud.

Miami Lakes, FL Sale Prices Crater 18% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/miami-lakes-fl/home-values/

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2015-02-12 08:33:44

“In law, fraud is deliberate deception to secure unfair or unlawful gain.’

There’s NO fraud here. There’s just greed and stupidity. That’s not unfair or unlawful. It’s the 1980s when condo conversions were the rage in Miami. Ten percent down and three months later you flip ‘em for 10K. Eeeeeeeeeeasy money until you’re the last owner.
Millenials with money in 2015 rent. And yes, not all of them are living at home.

Perez traded Miami condo units downtown for art. Clever creature. You also have to be smart to have a museum named after you for an art donation that’s worth 15 percent of what you had it appraised for. Everyone in this city is engaged in one hustle or another.

Miami is a petri dish for natural selection. It’s several hundred miles away from mainland USA, where grandpa lived in a different place and time, without carrying in his left hand, all day-long, his smart phone.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-12 08:52:05

The guy who said this was publicly discussing a strategic default six months ago on his condo, and then narrowly avoided foreclosure buy unloading it at the last minute. And a few years ago Related was buying out distressed condo buildings they had built!

Comment by snake charmer
2015-02-12 10:12:02

I’m not sure I agree about natural selection being at work in Miami, although I will agree that some cities, Miami among them, seem to attract a particular personality type and strongly repel others.

I’ve always been surprised that there weren’t more south Florida commenters on this blog.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-12 06:24:39

‘The promise of plentiful jobs and salaries as high as a quarter-million dollars a year lured Colombia native Clara Correa Zappa and her British husband to Perth, Australia, at the height of the continent’s oil and gas frenzy. Anxieties are rising at a time when the number of energy jobs cut globally have climbed well above 100,000 as once-bustling oil hubs in Scotland, Australia and Brazil, among other countries, empty out, according to Swift Worldwide Resources, a staffing firm with offices across the world.’

“It’s shocking,” Zappa, 29, said in a telephone interview. There is “so much pressure for him to keep his job and even work extra.”

Lots of sob stories from all over the world at this link. But like the North Dakota article yesterday, which had a diner owner saying, ‘we used to not get out of bed for less than $3,000′: I bet you are out of bed right now sweetheart, and glad you have some work to do.

Yes, the gravy years are going to be missed. Almost always, people will say later, we should have known it wouldn’t last.

“They’re looking to make a hundred-grand a unit … with virtually nothing being done”

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 06:27:39

“Beijing Directive Cuts Into Debt Issuance”

‘In the eastern city of Changzhou, known for its dried radish pickles and a severe housing glut, a government financing vehicle was on track late last year to sell a $190 million bond.’

Vegatables and massive excess housing inventory and debt. Sounds like CA no?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-directive-cuts-into-debt-issuance-1423690460

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-12 07:52:36

Sounds like it’s no longer “turtles all the way down” for local government debt issuance in China.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 06:33:26

“Brazil’s Petrobras To Cut Capex, Sell Assets; Eyeing Spinoffs: Valor”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/12/us-brazil-petrobras-bendine-idUSKBN0LG17A20150212

Liquidation is contagious. Head for the front of the pack quickly.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-12 08:41:47

Just when you are doubled over economically, nature comes along and kicks you in the a$$.

“The Cantaeira reservoir system provides half Sao Paulo’s drinking water. It’s now down to only 6 percent of capacity.

But it’s not only Sao Paulo that’s in crisis. The drought has affected the breadbasket state of Minas Gerais as well as Rio de Janeiro. Food prices are soaring and businesses are struggling to adapt.”

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/02/10/384971276/a-historic-drought-grips-brazils-economic-capital

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 06:36:44

“Bond Traders Vanishing as Liquidity Evaporates”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/traders-vanish-with-liquidity-as-profit-slumps-credit-markets

… along with grossly inflated prices.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 06:41:11

“Ukraine Gets IMF-Led $40 Billion Aid Accord to Avert Default”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/imf-chief-announces-ukraine-aid-extension-to-about-40-billion

Nothing like making a bad situation far worse.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 06:49:41

“Venezuala Bonds Tumble As Investors Spurn New Forex System”

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/12/us-venezuela-economy-idUKKBN0LG03520150212

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-12 07:12:07

Was there a grand design to dump foreclosures on the US market once jobs came back, or is the timing coincidental?

If not coincidental, whose plan is it and where is it announced?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-12 07:34:58

Foam, runway, banks.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-12 07:54:23

I guess all that foam on the runway would go to waste if not used.

 
 
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2015-02-12 07:52:04

Decisions like these are extremely complicated, requiring input and extensive analysis and debate amongst the finest minds in our nation- if not The Finest Minds In The World.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-12 07:59:22

“grand design” = Dumb ‘em down, and profit.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-02-12 09:07:32

Mr. Banker - you are utterly heartless!!!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-12 09:21:09

Oh dear…

‘The 5 percent monthly increase was driven primarily by a 55 percent monthly jump in bank repossessions (REOs) to a 15-month high. A total of 37,292 U.S. properties were repossessed by lenders in January, up 23 percent from a year ago to the highest monthly total since October 2013.’

‘Twenty-one states posted a year-over-year increase in scheduled foreclosure auctions in January, including Massachusetts (up 268 percent), New Jersey (up 125 percent), North Carolina (up 111 percent), New York (up 79 percent to a 55-month high), Missouri (up 74 percent to a 29-month high), California (up 43 percent to a 22-month high), Arizona (up 37 percent to a 20-month high), Oregon (up 29 percent), and Washington (up 13 percent).’

“There has been a slow but persistent increase in new foreclosure filings in the seven front-range counties in Colorado,” said Greg Hagan, owner/broker at RE/MAX Alliance, covering the Denver market, where scheduled foreclosure auctions in January jumped 166 percent from December and were up 14 percent from a year ago. “It appears that a number of these new filings are in fact re-filings with new law firms who took over the business after the bad-actor law firms were eliminated. Many of these new filings have been in foreclosure limbo for more than a year and arenow coming to sale in 2015.”

‘Twenty-seven states posted annual increases in REOs in January, including Ohio (up 197 percent), New Jersey (up 116 percent to a 51-month high), Maryland (up 100 percent), Washington (up 75 percent to a 39-month high), Arizona (up 61 percent to a 20-month high), California (up 58 percent to a 24-month high), Pennsylvania (up 44 percent to a 42-month high), Michigan (up 39 percent to a 16-month high), North Carolina (up 38 percent to a 15-month high), Texas (up 24 percent to a 16-month high), New York (up 24 percent to a 55-month high), and Florida (up 17 percent).’

‘There were a total of 2,305 properties in the Phoenix metro area with a foreclosure filing in January, an increase of 104 percent from the previous month and up 45 percent from a year ago to a 20-month high. Scheduled foreclosure auctions – which are the first public foreclosure notice in Arizona and act as the foreclosure start — increased 37 percent from a year ago, and bank repossessions were up 58 percent from a year ago in Phoenix.’

‘With 1,279 properties with a foreclosure filing in January, San Francisco foreclosure activity increased 49 percent from December and was up 35 percent from a year ago. Scheduled foreclosure auctions increased 74 percent from a year ago and bank repossessions were up 62 percent from a year ago in the San Francisco metro area.’

‘There were a total of 5,663 properties in the Los Angeles metro area with a foreclosure filing in January, an increase of 59 percent from the previous month and up 34 percent from a year ago to a 22-month high. Scheduled foreclosure auctions increased 74 percent from a year ago and bank repossessions were up 102 percent from a year ago in the Los Angeles metro area, while foreclosure starts decreased 16 percent from a year ago.’

‘“Our agents’ REO and distress business has wound considerably down over the last two years,” said Mark Hughes, Chief Operating Officer at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Despite a bit of an extension to this wind-down process due to delayed actions created by the Homeowner Bill of Rights in 2013, we are preparing that this is really a final push to clear the decks of the a still disproportionate amount of distressed homes and finally bring the market back to a more stability.”

‘With 1,874 properties with a foreclosure filing in January, Seattle foreclosure activity increased 63 percent from December and was up 31 percent from a year ago to a 19-month high. Scheduled auctions — which are the first public foreclosure notice in Washington and act as the foreclosure start — were down 2 percent from a year ago, but bank repossessions increased 81 percent from a year ago in Seattle.’

‘Other major metros with a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in January were Boston (up 24 percent), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario in Southern California (up 10 percent), San Diego (up 8 percent), and Philadelphia (up 3 percent).’

http://www.realtytrac.com/news/foreclosure-trends/january-2015-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/

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Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-12 08:53:55

They are apartment-shaped financial instruments. ‘In New York, you trade stocks. In Chicago we trade commodities. Miami, we trade condos,’ he says. ‘This is what we do,’ he continues. ‘We trade down here. These are traders who are not looking to live the American dream with a family of four and a dog. They’re looking to make a hundred-grand a unit … with virtually nothing being done but making a phone call to your broker in Miami and having him unload it to somebody else’s broker, who’s representing somebody in Russia

Well, I guess tulip bulbs were once considered “financial instruments”

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-12 09:10:24

It’s a global orchestra of financial instruments.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-12 08:54:52

‘Five Facts About Housing That Will Make People In New York City and San Francisco Depressed’

Comment by rj chicago
2015-02-12 09:09:48

3. No matter how you slice it, you’re paying more
In big cities many people live in apartments as opposed to single-family homes, so Case-Shiller also breaks those prices down. But any way you look at it, property price growth in New York is unstoppable. LA and San Francisco are coming up fast too. Again, if you’re looking for a bargain in one of the major U.S. cities, your best bet is Chicago.

Don’t move to Chicago - you will hate it here - literally!!!

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-02-12 09:03:20

“Foreclosures jumped more than 100 percent in January compared to December both in Phoenix and statewide, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity both locally and statewide are at 20-month highs as banks step up their repossessions, auctions and filing of default notices.

Sounds to me like more low hangin fruit is available for the picking by the investor class to rent out to the on going parade of debtors.
How did we get here?

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-02-12 13:57:33

Go Phoenix, go Phoenix, go!

 
 
Comment by doom
2015-02-12 10:02:25

Prices up-foreclosures up- auctions up.

If you were making a cake with this recipe it would collapse???

 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-02-12 11:17:59

Hmmm……
I guess the attack on the size of homes is on too…..

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/02/houses-keep-getting-bigger/

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 14:09:41

Barney just can’t get any traffic to his site anymore.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-02-12 14:09:46

It should be on. The size of houses has a lot to do with the housing bubble, where overpriced land strongly incentivizes the construction of a big, expensive house. Which likely is hideously ugly and cheaply built. I’ve seen my area change from attractive 3/2 houses to sterile 5/4 particle board houses that look like somebody s___ rectangles.

There are antisocial effects to big houses, IMHO. I grew up in small spaces where we were all on top of each other. That forces you to get along, and also keeps your focus outside. A pleasant family in my neighborhood recently moved from a small house to a McMansion they built nearby. They used to be outdoors a lot, but not anymore. Their house has swallowed them up like Jonah.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-12 17:23:53

55 billion excess empty square foot of housing. Oh my word.

 
 
 
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