February 14, 2015

Bits Bucket for February 14, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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138 Comments »

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-02-14 02:42:43

I’ve said before that Dodd Frank essentially turned “Too Big To Fail” into “Too Small to Succeed”.

And now Harvard has put out a study that proves it.

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp37

The applicable quote from the abstract:

“Interestingly, we find that community banks emerged from the financial crisis with a market share 6 percent lower, but since the second quarter of 2010 – around the time of the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act – their share of U.S. commercial banking assets has declined at a rate almost double that between the second quarters of 2006 and 2010. Particularly troubling is community banks’ declining market share in several key lending markets, their decline in small business lending volume, and the disproportionate losses being realized by particularly small community banks.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:24:35

Would you expect a banking law designed by a couple of politicians with close connections to Wall Street to work as advertised?

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-02-14 10:43:20

Yes, and after all the rhetoric from the WH to help small business, by impacting smaller regional and community banks, Dodd Frank has restricted the flow of capital to small businesses–making the recovery slower than it would have been without Dodd Frank.

People forget that job creation is very much on the margin.

Every month, there are 4+MM hires, and 4+MM people leaving jobs (quits and layoffs). The difference between the two is job creation.

And so an impact to hiring of 1% is the difference between job creation of 200k and 150k per month.

I don’t know what the actual impact was from more restrictive capital flowing to small business, but it’s not hard to imagine the number being a percent or two.

 
 
Comment by tj
2015-02-14 07:41:51

yes, the smaller banks that didn’t make risky loans could have bought the bankrupt large banks assets for pennies on the dollar. the small banks would have come out of the disaster stronger than ever.

on the debt side, holders of unsalvageable liabilities would have been punished and lessons would have been learned and not repeated.

too bad the elite don’t understand, and never trust markets.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 08:58:15

“too bad the elite don’t understand, and never trust markets.”

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

– Upton Sinclair

Comment by oxide
2015-02-14 09:08:43

+1 Prof Bear. I’m sure that the elite understood it full well, and watered down the regulations in the direction that suited their purpose. Of course, they didn’t phrase it that way. They phrased it as “saving the poor” or some such nonsense.

Unlike many in HBB, I don’t believe that Obama started off as a Wall-Street statist, but his macing of Occupy Wall Street cemented him into the pockets of his bought-and-paid-for advisers *cough larry summers cough*

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Comment by Rental Watch
2015-02-14 10:35:53

The politicians were gutless.

Rather than actually write the rules for Dodd Frank, they put down a framework and let the lawyers at the SEC work out the rules with the financial industry to avoid substantial debate.

Everytime the SEC wanted to implement one of the 100+ rules based on Dodd Frank, they released it to the public for comment, and lobbyists and attorneys for the affected businesses worked their butts off to mold the rules to best suit them.

And guess who was able to spend the most money, and have the most unified voice? Major financial institutions.

We needed simple rules that could not be monkeyed with, not a complex set of to-be-written rules that could be molded based on lobbying.

And I’ve heard the argument that the financial system is too complex to have simple rules. That’s B.S. There are plenty of major pieces of legislation that were short. The 100,000+ pages of law/rules generated by Dodd Frank is only effectively navigated by major institutions.

No wonder job creation accelerated once Obama lost the House in 2010.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2015-02-14 11:15:13

Rental Watch: The politicians were gutless.

Not gutless, just corrupt. Under “regulatory capture” to put it politely.

Who has the greatest access to politicians, and who are the greatest contributors? They are the ones to whom the politicians listen most closely. It’s just human nature. And the system actively encourages this kind of mercenary behavior.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-14 11:25:40

Dodd Frank has restricted the flow of capital to small businesses–making the recovery slower……No wonder job creation accelerated once Obama lost the House in 2010.

You make a lot of sense until there, because Dodd Frank was signed into law before the 2010 elections. So your premise that Dodd Frank killed jobs would still have been killing the same jobs after 2010. So Obama losing the house would not be a reason for jobs to pick up. It’s not like Dodd Frank was repealed just because the Repubs won the house in 2010.

Most likely job growth picked up after 2010 is because downturns don’t last forever no matter how weak the recovery is.

Also, unlike floundering Europe, the USA did not embrace the failed policy of austerity during a massive recession and financial crisis.

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-14 11:50:10

The politicians were gutless.

no one was surprised by that.

Rather than actually write the rules for Dodd Frank, they put down a framework and let the lawyers at the SEC work out the rules with the financial industry to avoid substantial debate.

yes, we need more rules. the laws we have on the books aren’t enough.

Everytime the SEC wanted to implement one of the 100+ rules based on Dodd Frank, they released it to the public for comment, and lobbyists and attorneys for the affected businesses worked their butts off to mold the rules to best suit them.

again you sound surprised. haven’t you had enough of over-reaching government power yet?

And guess who was able to spend the most money, and have the most unified voice? Major financial institutions.

whodda thunkit?

We needed simple rules that could not be monkeyed with

right! there otta be a law! can you tell me the rules you want?

There are plenty of major pieces of legislation that were short.

yes! more shorter legislation is good! more shorter legislation will fix everything!

The 100,000+ pages of law/rules generated by Dodd Frank is only effectively navigated by major institutions.

why not? they’re helping to write it! and the smaller institutions can’t afford the lawyers it takes to comply. no little guys! what’s not to like?

No wonder job creation accelerated once Obama lost the House in 2010.

they haven’t repealed anything. they haven’t helped improve the economy.

most have joined the establishment. the ‘job creation’ you’re seeing now is mostly people with high paying jobs getting fired and taking 2 lower paying part time jobs. some job creation, right? yes, those 2 part time jobs are counted like 2 people had them instead of one.

and another thing.. schiff claims that much employment is the elderly because they can’t afford to retire now. sounds about right to me. they’re becoming walmart greeters. how fun..

 
Comment by rms
2015-02-14 11:55:19

Unlike many in HBB, I don’t believe that Obama started off as a Wall-Street statist, but his macing of Occupy Wall Street cemented him into the pockets of his bought-and-paid-for advisers *cough larry summers cough*

I can still hear our transparent negro making the pitch for taxpayer funded Wall street bonuses; what a guy!

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-14 11:58:13

hi comrade!

Most likely job growth picked up after 2010 is because downturns don’t last forever no matter how weak the recovery is.

yes! downturns don’t last forever! just ask zimbabwe!

Also, unlike floundering Europe, the USA did not embrace the failed policy of austerity during a massive recession and financial crisis.

socialist europe is floundering? say it ain’t so!

we’re on the edge of disaster comrade. sometimes i wonder if you don’t want it to happen..

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-14 12:06:56

comrade, let’s ask the old soviet union too, ok?

they came roaring back right? well.. after they collapsed that is.. hey, you can’t keep a good socialist down.

 
Comment by tj
2015-02-14 12:47:40

RW what are some rules that you think should be in place that aren’t covered somewhere else in laws already on the books?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 16:29:34

“…let the lawyers at the SEC work out the rules with the financial industry to avoid substantial debate.”

There it is!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 16:31:28

“…rules that should be in place…”


Generally speaking, price fixing involves an agreement by two or more competing producers of a specific commodity, or competing providers of a particular service, in a defined geographic area, to raise, set or maintain prices for their goods or services. It may take place at either the wholesale or retail level and, although it need not involve every competitor in a particular market, it usually involves most of the competitors in the particular market.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 16:37:45

That blurb on price fixing reminds me that holding homes off the market to drive up rents and purchase prices is an example of price fixing.

Is it legal?

 
 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2015-02-14 09:53:33

Was Upton Sinclair’s nickname in college Uppity?

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Comment by spook
2015-02-14 13:54:14

what color was he?

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2015-02-14 14:41:12

Color has nothing to do with it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2015-02-14 04:55:11

All the lonely renters spending another Valentines Day alone, how sad!

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-14 05:45:51

Renters probably make better lovers. Mortgage owners tend to be married, boring, steady state heteros. Not your 50 shades renter types!

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 07:00:25

50 shades of fraud.

 
Comment by spook
2015-02-14 08:47:17
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 09:41:29

Mortgage owners tend to be married, boring, steady state heteros. Not your 50 shades renter types!

Bad boys get the girls, good boys get the bills.

Comment by rms
2015-02-14 12:04:30

“Bad boys get the girls, good boys get the bills.”

+1 LOL. Copied that including a citation. Thanks!

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-14 05:48:22

Wiki says the word “mortgage” means “death pledge”.

Mr. Bankers says that if one truly wishes to celebrate Valentine’s Day to its fullest extent he should visit his local banker and ask about the banker’s Dotted Line Death Pledge Special.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-14 05:58:38

Be sure to ask for and get the “Till death do we part” Valentine Day Option before you sign your name on the dotted line.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:13:15

“Till foreclosure do us part…”

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Comment by Mr. Funny
2015-02-14 06:13:10

Some real estate jokes:

How can you know if your bank is hurting from the mortgage crisis?
You try to cash a check and they tell you to come back with a gun!

Do you know how to save a drowning real estate agent?
Take your foot off his head.

What do you have when 100 mortgage brokers are buried up to their neck in sand?
Not enough sand.

Did you hear that the Post Office just recalled their latest stamps?
They had pictures of mortgage brokers on them …and people couldn’t figure out which side to spit on.

What’s the difference between a female real estate agent and a pit bull?
Lipstick.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 06:58:49

All the lonely REALTORS spending another Valentines Day alone, how sad!

Fixed it for you.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:10:02

Renters tend to make better lovers. For one thing, they aren’t perpetually broke like proudly indebted owners of overpriced crap shacks. And secondly, they are lucky enough to have a landlord to handle yard work, termite extermination, gophers, etc, which opens up a lot of free time.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-14 07:38:46

Renters tend to have little tolerance for misery. Keep them happy if you want a renewal.

 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-14 07:56:09

I am not lonely. I just prefer to be alone than to be with state worshippers.

This weekend I am at my desert getaway, a rental on the edge of a quiet green grass park with shade trees nearby. I have everything I want here (except have to go out to the nearby small convenience mkt for half and half, for the coffee). My income from my bond funds pays for the entire rent here. it is a great nabe and I am just tickled that it is all paid for. It would be very hard to find a house with the location amenities that can top this. $380,000 generates the income to pay for it. So I must find a $380,000 or cheaper stucco box on the edge of a park in a gated community with the park as my backyard. Or a desert mountain or hill. and those are precisely what I look for when I browse houses for sale. Hey are very rare.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2015-02-14 09:59:42

Eat your oatmeal.

Comment by rms
2015-02-14 12:13:15

“Eat your oatmeal.”

Funny, I’m doing that right now. Probably have $5 worth of blue berries in there too. Yum!

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Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 17:33:05

“how sad!”

Former Utah County Realtor sentenced to 7 years in federal prison

February 13, 2015 10:45 am • Kurt Hanson Daily Herald

SALT LAKE CITY — A former Utah County real estate agent was sentenced Thursday to seven years in federal prison for leading a real estate scam that left people with $11.7 million in losses.

Portia Louder, 43, of American Fork, pleaded guilty in August 2014 to one count of wire fraud and one count of conspiracy. As a part of her plea agreement, a handful of other charges — springing from six other real estate deals in which fraudulent transactions occurred — were dropped. In one situation, a loan Louder acquired was for more than $1 million over the actual sales price of the home.

U.S. District Court Judge Robert Shelby said he imposed the maximum sentence because Louder was the leader of a highly sophisticated fraudulent scam which took place over a long period of time.

Louder pleaded guilty to one specific incident from a 2007 real estate negotiation. Court records indicate she negotiated a sales price on an Alpine home for about $725,000. She then obtained a loan for $1 million, making more than $230,000 on the deal.

Shelby said Louder’s charges stem primarily from 10 transactions that resulted in almost $12 million in losses. However, she is alleged to have participated in almost 80 transactions that could be valued at more than $80 million.

According to sentencing guidelines, Louder would have been sentenced to 10 to 15 years in federal prison had she met certain criteria. However, the lead prosecutor, U.S. Attorney Stewart Walz, said Louder was cooperative during investigations, leading to an agreement on a lesser prison sentence.

Court records state Louder didn’t keep all of her proceeds but would funnel them into new deals as a way to cover up her crimes and work her way out of being discovered.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-14 05:39:52

The Burrito Index: Every table was full at the steak house last night. Downtown Sacramento. Strong vitality.

Comment by azdude
2015-02-14 06:25:24

mortons?

Zolcolos is pretty good.

Do you have any idea of the homeless population living in the brush on the river from cal expo down to discovery park?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:12:07

Lotsa people too broke to eat at an upscale restaurant?

 
Comment by oxide
2015-02-14 07:36:44

Strong vitality? More like saving up for one day. It’s like going to mass on Christmas Eve and claiming that church attendance is higher than ever.
Come back when Morton’s is stuffed full on a snowy Monday night.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-14 22:04:19

Good point Oxy. Forgot about the date night.

 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-14 07:57:45

It is beer night for me. Dos Equis Amber on tap at my favorite bar and a Mexican food dinner.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 08:01:32

At least the beer will be authentic Mexican.

Comment by azdude
2015-02-14 08:20:44

corona?

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Comment by butters
2015-02-14 08:46:52

Piss in bottles?

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Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 09:39:46

You gotta hand it to Modelo, they were able to market what is perhaps Mexico’s version of Coors into the top Mexican brand in the US, while much better beers like Bohemia don’t sell.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 10:11:11

while much better beers like Bohemia don’t sell ??

I stay with the pale-ist beer I can get…Less Alcohol and carbs…I drink to many to go with anything else…Currently go with Miller-64…Coors-light if they don’t have the 64…

 
Comment by rms
2015-02-14 12:18:08

Around here its Oregon for G-R-E-A-T beer.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-14 14:32:34

Those aren’t beers, scdave.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 15:13:38

Those aren’t beers, scdave ??

They are to me young-in…..: >)

 
 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 10:01:00

Mexican, si! But why on earth would anyone want authentic Mexican? I like things that actually taste good. You must be talking about Fauxthentic.

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Comment by ibbots
2015-02-14 11:40:37

Sounds good. I gave my wife the choice for tonight. I hope she picks Italian as there’s a killer byob Italian place down the street.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 10:06:31

Downtown Sacramento. Strong vitality ??

Mid-Town ??

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-14 11:38:23

The Burrito Index:

http://www.frontera.com.br/

I had steak too in Ipanema. (And lamb) It was pretty empty but it was late and there were about 10,000 people dancing in the street.

Tonight there will be a couple hundred thousand. It’s fun to watch for an hour or so.

 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-14 06:03:22

HBB Fun Fact: Monarch ski lodge is home to the highest elevation Starbucks in the world

Emphasis on highest

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 08:02:32

So that’s what John Denver was singing about

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2015-02-14 06:26:30

So there’s Obama condemning this guy for murdering “some folks” over a parking space dispute. This is because the “folks” were Muslims. It’s not like he goes public in his condemnation of every murder that takes place in the US, including those that take place with regularity in Chicago.

Now, let that sink in. And then ask yourself how many thousands of Muslims Obama is responsible for killing and maiming in the Middle East. In the name of whatever. How many were innocent “collateral damage”?

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-14 07:30:52

I’m looking forward to the allegedly “conservative” Congress launching another trillion dollar war and King Obama rubber stamping it

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-14 07:59:16

Obama depends on the numbskull majority never even thinking of hose questions, Palmy.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 08:03:40

It’s not like he goes public in his condemnation of every murder that takes place in the US, including those that take place with regularity in Chicago.

FWIW, those killings don’t make the national news.

Comment by 2banana
2015-02-14 08:23:18

Nor do they help in fundraising or vote buying

 
Comment by butters
2015-02-14 08:40:39

No wonder Brian Williams and all have to lie to fill the 30 minutes they got. They are not reporting much on Obama’s wars and his other misdeeds.

Comment by oxide
2015-02-14 10:05:13

PBS is doing a pretty good job of reporting the news in the middle east. Not too heavy on blaming Obama though. PBS does not count “blame” as news (although quite a few of their guest analysts play the blame game).

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-14 11:43:28

So there’s Obama condemning this guy for murdering “some folks” over a parking space dispute.

I think what Obama is doing is trying to dampen the flames of an all out religious war which some of the far-right Christians are hankering for.

Don’t believe it? Then you must not have many “Christian” friends posting on your FaceBook.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 06:43:18

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkV-0k_0j5w - 255k -

We got a green scam down, we got a green scam down. Gov. John Kitzhaber is down, we got a bird down in the city.
————————————————————————
Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber quits amid criminal probe

Hannah Hoffman, The (Salem, Ore.) Statesman Journal 7:55 p.m. EST February 13, 2015

SALEM, Ore. — Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned office Friday amid allegations of criminal wrongdoing, almost exactly one month after being sworn in for an unprecedented fourth term. Secretary of State Kate Brown will replace him.
——————————————————————————–

Follow the GD money

Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber, fiancee provide new green energy scandal for Democrats

Controversy creates new questions for billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer

By Kellan Howell - The Washington Times - Thursday, February 12, 2015

What do you get when you mix a governor, his ambitious fiancee, a billionaire environmentalist and some handsome green energy consulting contracts? In Oregon, they have collided to produce an influence-peddling scandal that threatens to end Gov. John Kitzhaber’s tenure.

Mr. Kitzhaber, a Democrat, faced increasing pressure Thursday within his own party to resign over accusations that his fiancee sought to use her relationship with the governor to land lucrative consulting contracts for her green energy consulting business.

The top two Democrats in Oregon’s Legislature — Senate President Peter Courtney and House Speaker Tina Kotek — met with Mr. Kitzhaber to urge the four-term governor to step down, joining a growing chorus of leaders hoping to stem the scandal with a resignation.

“Unfortunately, the current situation has become untenable, and I cannot imagine any scenario by which things improve,” said State Treasurer Ted Wheeler, a Democrat. “Oregon deserves a governor who is fully focused on the duties of state.”

Mr. Kitzhaber remained defiant and said he intended to stay in office.

Oregon’s controversy has created new questions for billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer, a major Democratic supporter and bundler for President Obama.

The scandal carries larger repercussions for national Democrats, who have worked hard to put to rest a controversy in President Obama’s tenure over the failures of taxpayer-funded green energy companies such as Solyndra that had political ties to party bigwigs.

Mr. Steyer, Mr. Kitzhaber and Ms. Hayes appeared together at an environmental dinner in November 2013 celebrating environmental accomplishments in the West. Mr. Steyer has given $100,000 to the Oregon Democratic Party through his NextGen Climate Action political movement.

Mr. Steyer’s office did not return repeated emails seeking comment. A San Francisco-based hedge fund manager, the billionaire environmentalist was a fundraising bundler for both of Mr. Obama’s presidential races and a heavy supporter of Democratic causes across the country.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/12/oregon-gov-john-kitzhaber-fiancee-cylvia-hayes-pro/#ixzz3Rfn4oHfI
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-14 07:36:38

Neocon Moonie rag Drudge link clickity click click

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Times

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 08:30:56

This story is available on all the “reputable” main “news” sources reported by “real journalists”, but for some reason they have little or no mention of handsome green energy consulting contracts or the billionaire environmentalist hedge fund manager bundler for President Obama.

Follow the money

We got a green scam down, we got a green scam down.

Paid for by “Someone else”

 
 
Comment by butters
2015-02-14 08:00:05

Seriously are there any “good” progressives out there?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-02-14 09:02:08

Nope. Each and every one of them devours a live infant daily.

Comment by butters
2015-02-14 09:16:42

As long as they don’t spit on gays and black people, I am cool with that.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-02-14 09:29:04

his ambitious fiancee

What do you think the odds are that she sticks with him now that he’s not the Governor anymore?

 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-14 06:44:32

Cash, baby, cash …

Go to cash.

“Negative interest rates: Coming to America?”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-in-europe-are-charging-to-hold-deposits–could-it-happen-here-195532627.html

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:15:39

Meanwhile, long term Treasury yields are rocketing up to the moon.

Comment by azdude
2015-02-14 08:53:26

is your currency safer in a bank or a hole in the ground?

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 13:24:56

No amount of money in the world will care for you when you get older like a well raised child who loves you. Invest wisely.

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Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-14 18:39:04

In reality, even the well raised child is struggling with a career, perhaps in another city. And cannot be there to attend an ailing older relative weekdays.

I know for a fact.

Plus some have their own families to maintain even if they live in the same community.

Also, 50 percent of happily married people die without their spouse. Fact. Think about it! ;) usually the men die before the women. In my parents’ case my mother died before my dad.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 20:47:17

I perhaps phrased that wrong. Money is important of course. You can’t expect kids to always shoulder that burden. Given the choice between being old with money and no love or old with love and no money, I think I’d choose the latter, but I’m not entirely sure. What I really meant was don’t focus on just the money. Have both the money and the love.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-02-15 13:55:40

Invest wisely.

This is my situation. I’m a “caretaker” - everyone gets an overly reverential title these days - and the stereotypical daughter who asks the rest of the family for help and doesn’t get much. I give my only sibling a pass, though; it would be embarrassing and awkward for both of them if he was taking care of her. It’s ironic; a medical career was the only one I was sure I didn’t want.

In my case, now that I’ve (sort of) gotten used to dealing with the medical procedures, I’m a little worried about my sanity. I wish I were kidding. For a few months there, I’d get up in the morning and check to see if my mother and the dog were alive. My lovely dog passed away, and my mother is better; it’s still a very nerve wracking way to live. I can’t imagine the stress parents of sick children are under.

You’re right, Shillow. If your parents were good to you, you should respond in kind (as best you can.) Be warned - you have to have a high tolerance for bad tv and hearing the same stories over and over again.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 09:25:52

We haven’t run out of bubbles to warn on…

Shiller warns bond investors: Beware of ‘crash’!

Alex Rosenberg
Friday, 13 Feb 2015 | 8:04 AM ETCNBC.com
Robert Shiller has a new source of concern.

In the first edition of his landmark book “Irrational Exuberance,” published in 2000, the Yale professor of economics and 2013 Nobel Laureate presciently warned that stocks looked especially expensive. In the second edition, published in 2005 shortly before the real estate bubble crashed, he added a chapter about real estate valuations. And in the new edition, due out later this month, Shiller adds a fresh chapter called “The Bond Market in Historical Perspective,” in which he worries that bond prices might be irrationally high.

Noting that interest rates (which move inversely to prices) are extremely low given historical norms, Shiller writes: “The U.S. bond market, showing such low yields, looks as it if may have gone through something of a bubble, and may collapse further, eventually.”

In a Thursday interview on CNBC’s “Futures Now,” Shiller said that if bonds are in a bubble, it’s not sort of a gleeful frenzy that the word tends to conjure images of.

For Shiller, a bubble is “a social epidemic of enthusiasm and excitement spread by word of mouth, attracting more and more investors in a market. But I don’t know that the bond market is really driven by excitement. Excitement of sorts—but it isn’t so optimistic. I think it’s mixed with a tinge of regret about ‘Why am I getting such low yields?’ ”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 09:51:56

Q. How much would you have lost by now if you bought 30-year Treasurys at the beginning of February (two weeks ago)?

A. 7.9%.

If this happened to the stock market, international headlines would be screaming “Stock Market Bloodbath!!!!”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 09:53:05

DateYld30Yr Price Loss %
2015-02-02 2.25 $1,000 0.0%
2015-02-03 2.37 $974 2.6%
2015-02-04 2.39 $970 3.0%
2015-02-05 2.42 $964 3.6%
2015-02-06 2.51 $945 5.5%
2015-02-09 2.52 $943 5.7%
2015-02-10 2.58 $931 6.9%
2015-02-11 2.57 $933 6.7%
2015-02-12 2.58 $931 6.9%
2015-02-13 2.63 $921 7.9%

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Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-14 06:48:06

Al and Jesse need to get PAID

 
Comment by boots on the ground
Comment by rms
2015-02-14 12:30:59

Nice place for someone who nets $12k/month.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-14 18:28:03

The first thing that always comes to mind when I see such a spread is “how will I landscape and clean the place? How much would I pay for the upkeep since I won’t have time to do it myself?”

Funny thing is that somehow faer the yer 2000 very few middle class people would say quickly “it is unaffordable and forget about it.” Yet before that year most middle class people would be able to calculate the annual income to pay for the upkeep and property taxes on such a place.

Hence my own rule of thumb: if it is priced at more than one sixth of my net worth (With several decades of Savings) then ignore it. Or if I was 25 years younger my other rule would be: if the asking price is more than 2 and a half times my net worth, then run away. It is a debt trap! So either way, the house above is for someone to pretend he is wealthy or for a decamilionaire.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-14 18:29:47

The first thing that always comes to mind when I see such a spread is “how will I landscape and clean the place? How much would I pay for the upkeep since I won’t have time to do it myself?”

Funny thing is that somehow after the year 2000 very few middle class people would say quickly “it is unaffordable and forget about it.” Yet before that year most middle class people would be able to calculate the annual income to pay for the upkeep and property taxes on such a place.

Hence my own rule of thumb: if it is priced at more than one sixth of my net worth (With several decades of Savings) then ignore it. Or if I was 25 years younger my other rule would be: if the asking price is more than 2 and a half times my net worth, then run away. It is a debt trap! So either way, the house above is for someone to pretend he is wealthy or for a decamilionaire.

Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-14 18:31:53

Sorry for double post. Second post has fixes in spelling.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2015-02-14 07:10:44

History of Valentines Day:

———–

He was a Roman Priest at a time when there was an emperor called Claudias who persecuted the church at that particular time,” Father O’Gara explains. ” He also had an edict that prohibited the marriage of young people. This was based on the hypothesis that unmarried soldiers fought better than married soldiers because married soldiers might be afraid of what might happen to them or their wives or families if they died.

“The idea of encouraging them to marry within the Christian church was what Valentine was about. And he secretly married them because of the edict.”

Valentine was eventually caught, imprisoned and tortured for performing marriage ceremonies against command of Emperor Claudius the second.

In the year 269 AD, Valentine was sentenced to a three part execution of a beating, stoning, and finally decapitation all because of his stand for Christian marriage. The story goes that the last words he wrote were in a note to Asterius’ daughter. He inspired today’s romantic missives by signing it, “from your Valentine.”

Comment by spook
2015-02-14 09:49:44

“This was based on the hypothesis that unmarried soldiers fought better than married soldiers”
——————————————————————————

That always seemed counter intuitive to me?

I thought Marriage and monogamy were promoted by the state because by making sure every man had his own woman, the man would have a “share” in the state and therefore be more than willing to march off to war for the state, and in addition, care for his offspring since marriage help establish paternity…

or am I missing something?

Comment by oxide
2015-02-14 10:14:05

Oh, marriage and monogamy were just fine… AFTER your body was too old and decrepit to fight. By “old” I mean late 20’s. Then when you’re married and your teen-bride — got her down at the auction — has popped out a few more soldiers, you earn your “share” in the state by keeping your mouth shut and NOT rocking the state boat.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-14 12:39:32

That’s just part of history of Valentine’s Day. You left out the part where the advertising industry convinced American men to spend a lot of money on stuff that nobody needs.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 07:15:05

‘I Know Nothing!’ Hispanic Caucus Member Didn’t Know That Illegals Will Receive Tax Refunds

Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez told The Daily Caller Friday that he didn’t know that illegal immigrants are eligible for tax refunds — even if they haven’t paid taxes

by Daily Caller | KERRY PICKET | February 14, 2015

WASHINGTON—Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez told The Daily Caller Friday that he didn’t know that illegal immigrants are eligible for tax refunds — even if they haven’t paid taxes.

IRS Commissioner John Koskinen told members of Congress Wednesday that illegal immigrants who did not pay taxes will be able to claim back-refunds once they are issued social security numbers.

“I know nothing of the sort,” Gutierrez snapped at a Daily Caller reporter when asked about Koskinen’s testimony.

“Of course it would be like you to raise that sort of question,” the Democrat continued. “Why don’t you ask the commissioner of the IRS?”

The commissioner, of course, had already been asked about it.

Full article here

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 07:21:45

Nothing would surprise me, as hard working Americans are routinely coerced into paying for illegal immigrants’ God-given right to live here.

Comment by butters
2015-02-14 08:03:15

Future voters & debt owners.

 
 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-02-14 11:37:08

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 07:15:05

Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez told The Daily Caller Friday that he didn’t know that illegal immigrants are eligible for tax refunds — even if they haven’t paid taxes
dailycaller.com/2015/02/13/i-know-nothing-hispanic-caucus-member-didnt-know-that-illegals-will-receive-tax-refunds/

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-14 12:42:49

If someone didn’t pay taxes, how could he receive a tax refund? He may receive a check of some sort, but it couldn’t be a tax refund. The Daily Caller is probably misquoting the IRS Commissioner.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 14:10:43

“He may receive a check of some sort, but it couldn’t be a tax refund.”

Wow: IRS Confirms Illegal Immigrants Entitled to Back Tax Refunds Under Executive Amnesty

Guy Benson | Feb 13, 2015

I had to watch this video twice to make sure I was understanding its implications correctly. Sure enough, here is everyone’s favorite IRS Commissioner testifying on Capitol Hill (discussing subjects other than this scandal or this one) that under President Obama’s unlawful executive amnesty, millions of illegal immigrants will be eligible to receive the generous Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). This won’t just be the case moving forward; the newly quasi-legalized-by-fiat immigrants also be able to claim retroactive refunds for up to three years — even if they didn’t file or pay taxes at the time. Astonishing:

The Washington Times summarizes the exchange:

IRS Commissioner John Koskinen told Congress on Wednesday that even illegal immigrants who didn’t pay taxes will be able to claim back-refunds once they get Social Security numbers under President Obama’s temporary deportation amnesty…Mr. Koskinen, testifying to the House oversight committee, said the White House never asked him or anyone else at the IRS about the potential tax effects of his amnesty policy. “I haven’t talked to the White House about this at all,” he said…He also clarified his testimony to the Senate last week, where he acknowledged illegal immigrants who had paid taxes using substitute Social Security numbers but who gain real Social Security numbers when they are approved for the amnesty can apply for back-refunds of the Earned Income Tax Credit. On Wednesday, he said even illegal immigrants who didn’t pay taxes will be able to apply for back-credits once they get Social Security numbers. The EITC is a refundable tax credit, which means those who don’t have any tax liability can still get money back from the government.

townhall.com/…-refunds-even-if-they-hadnt-filed-or-paid-taxes-in-the-past-n1956697 - 94k -
————————————————————————-
Once you determine if you are eligible for the EITC, here are the maximum credit amounts that you might qualify for in 2014:

$496 with 0 Qualifying Children
$3,305 with 1 Qualifying Child
$5,460 with 2 Qualifying Children
$6,143 with 3 or More Qualifying Children

See all of the requirements for the EITC or Earned Income Tax Credit.

Find Out If You Qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit EIC
http://www.efile.com/…/ - 71k -

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-02-14 14:24:24

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 14:10:43

Wow: IRS Confirms Illegal Immigrants Entitled to Back Tax Refunds Under Executive Amnesty
townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2015/02/13/wow-irs-says-illegal-immigrants-entitled-to-tax-refunds-even-if-they-hadnt-filed-or-paid-taxes-in-the-past-n1956697

Find Out If You Qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit EIC
efile.com/what-is-the-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-eic-eligibility-schedule-calculator/

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Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-14 14:56:45

he acknowledged illegal immigrants who had paid taxes using substitute Social Security numbers but who gain real Social Security numbers when they are approved for the amnesty can apply for back-refunds of the Earned Income Tax Credit.

So they did actually pay taxes. What the Daily Caller wrote that Congressman Luis Gutierrez doesn’t know isn’t true.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-02-14 15:44:10

“The first step (thesis) is to create a problem.”

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 15:50:15

“So they did actually pay taxes.”

Wow: IRS Confirms Illegal Immigrants Entitled to Back Tax Refunds Under Executive Amnesty

Guy Benson | Feb 13, 2015

“even if they didn’t file or pay taxes at the time.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2015-02-14 07:33:09

Ever wonder why your property taxes are so high and keep going up year after year?

Because democrats control your state and public unions are the biggest money contributors to the democrat party.

One NY retired teacher gets $561,286/year…

—————-

More retired teachers are pocketing six-figure pensions
NY Daily News | 02/13/2015 | GLENN BLAIN

McManus is one of 4,481 members of the New York City Teachers’ Retirement System and the New York State Teachers Retirement System who earned pensions over $100,000 in 2014. The number was a stark increase from the 1,663 who earned a six-figure pension in 2009, according to the Empire Center.

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-14 07:50:35

and people who vote a straight republican ticket that vote for lower municipal taxes and smaller government are also voting for a congress and president that want to borrow another trillion dollars from china for a two front war

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-14 08:00:51

Exactly. They are so shallow that they don’t get their feet wet.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 08:05:39

Ever wonder why your property taxes are so high and keep going up year after year?

Actually, mine aren’t high and have actually gone down.

Got TABOR?

Comment by 2banana
2015-02-14 08:21:59

Got TABOR?

Keep electing democrats and you won’t have it either.

As obama has shown us - all it takes it one federal judge, a phone and a pen for progressives to get what they want. And they want power. It doesn’t matter what the “Law” says…

———-

Politics
The Supreme Court is considering a challenge to Colorado’s TABOR law
Mark K. Matthews - The Denver Post - 01/12/2015

Few issues can match the drama — and staying power — of the 1992 measure, which has survived repeated attempts to dismantle its requirement that lawmakers get permission from voters before raising taxes.

Now, though, the so-called Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights is getting a shot at prime time. As soon as Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to decide the fate of a lawsuit against TABOR.

Plaintiffs in the anti-TABOR lawsuit, who include state Sen. Andy Kerr and House Speaker Dickey Lee Hullinghorst, have made the argument that the law robs state legislators and local government officials of their “authority to tax.”

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 09:36:24

Keep electing democrats and you won’t have it either.

First of all, the state legislature is split. Senate is GOP and the house is Dem and the GOP has been chipping away at that.
TABOR can only be repealed by a 2/3 majority popular vote. Ain’t gonna happen. Even when both houses were controlled by the Dems they couldn’t repeal TABOR.

And all tax increases have to be approved by voters, and every time one comes up for a vote it goes down in flames (as in 2/3 voting no). Colorado might be socially liberal (legal MJ), but fiscally it’s very conservative.

Enjoy your high taxation state. Instead of just complaining, maybe you guys should do something about it … like amending your state constitutions to include TABOR. Oh, did I mention we’re getting a TABOR refund this year?

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Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 10:22:25

Well like you colorado we have prop#13…But I do take note of what 2-fruit had to say…Is there a supreme court test coming regarding TABOR ??

 
 
 
 
Comment by spook
2015-02-14 13:59:31

Shame on you!

Don’t you know its fo da keeyuuds?

Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 15:16:49

fo da keeyuuds ??

LOL…Good one…

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2015-02-14 08:28:25

Another Bubble Pops: Price Of Farmland Suffers First Annual Decline Since 1986
Tyler Durden - 02/13/2015 - Zerohedge

And yet, like all other bubbles - be they the result of retail euphoria or central bank rigging - this one too must come to a close, and as the WSJ reports, the first crack in the farmland bubble are appearing, after farmland values declined in parts of the Midwest for the first time in decades last year “reflecting a cooling in the market driven by two years of bumper crops and sharply lower grain prices, according to Federal Reserve reports on Thursday.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 09:02:28

“1986″

That’s a long time!

For comparison, for how long did the 1920s farmland bubble inflate before it popped, leading to the Great Depression of the 1930s?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 09:03:49

P.S. To put matters into perspective, my entry into the (post-college campus employment) workforce was 1987. A long time ago!

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-14 12:46:45

“according to Federal Reserve reports on Thursday.”

I thought that Tyler Durden doesn’t trust the Federal Reserve.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-14 09:44:34

February 12, 2015 1:10 PM
Grand Rapids-based retailer Family Christian files for bankruptcy protection
By Dawn McCartyBloomberg News

Grand Rapids-based retailer Family Christian LLC, which sells Bibles, books, music, church supplies and other faith-related merchandise in 266 stores across 36 states, filed for bankruptcy protection with a plan to sell all its assets.

The nonprofit company listed assets and debt of less than $100 million each in Chapter 11 documents filed Wednesday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Grand Rapids. Family Christian had gross sales of about $216 million in 2014.

Family Christian, which traces its roots to 1931, entered into an agreement with a newly formed unit of Family Christian Ministries to serve as lead bidder for a court-supervised auction, according to court papers. The company said it expects to complete the process in about 60 days.

Family Christian “decided upon a Chapter 11 bankruptcy and sales process to effect a balance-sheet restructuring that would provide the business with the best chance for greater success,” CEO Chuck Bengochea said in court papers.

Family Christian sells products through stores and catalogs and online, according to its website.

Family Christian Holding LLC and FCS Giftco LLC also sought protection. Family Christian’s parent, Family Christian Resource Centers Inc. — also known as Family Christian Ministries — didn’t file for bankruptcy.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20150212/NEWS01/150219929/grand-rapids-based-retailer-family-christian-files-for-bankruptcy

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-14 10:00:07

Anything they sell you can get at Amazon for less.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 10:11:16

Watch out where the Green Folks go, and don’t you eat that yellow snow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLIppgE45wM - 376k -

 
Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-14 11:18:34

Personally, I can’t wait for robot drivers to displace all the dumb @ss morons who shouldn’t be behind the wheel…

===

Driverless car beats racing driver for first time

Scientists predict motorists could soon be transported by autonomous cars with the driving skills of Michael Schumacher

Driverless cars now out-perform skilled racing drivers, engineers at Stanford University have shown, after pitting their latest model against a track expert. The team has designed a souped-up Audi TTS dubbed ‘Shelley’ which has been programmed to race on its own at speeds above 120 mph at Thunderhill Raceway Park in Northern California.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03198/0MmAfQ_3198084a.gif

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-14 12:13:16

One thing about a robot driver, they won’t be the least concerned about fatalities.

Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-14 14:13:30

Science fiction writer Isaac Asimov was famous for putting forth the Three Laws of Robotics:

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

I’ll let the gubmint drive my car for me with the above robot in exchange for a higher speed limit, say 100 mph on the Interstate.

 
 
 
Comment by dude
2015-02-14 12:05:31

Anybody else noticed how deafening the silence is from the oil bears on the blog these days?

I’m unsure whether it is the lack of AD (banned) baiting or just the fact that those of us who built long positions over the last several weeks have been proven correct.

So I’m sitting on a position that is up 8.5% over the last 6 weeks. Sell, hold, add? What’s a dude to do?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-14 14:38:16

Wouldn’t most people hold until their position is down 10 or 20%?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-14 14:39:13

So oil drops 60% and it goes up 8% and what? The damage is done as far as I care. Canadians have stopped buying houses in Phoenix. I’m sure we’ll hear the same about Florida and Palm Desert soon enough. I post something about the oil/real estate rout almost every day, so I don’t know what you mean by silence. This thing is pin-balling through the global economy, knocking speculators on their asses faster than you can say Pilbara. I know a little bit about oil. I know there’s still a glut. Tanks are being topped off, production is up in some areas. I’ve posted that too. If you think a multi-year commodity blowout is corrected in 2, 3 or 6 weeks, fine. But having lived through an oil/real estate crash that lasted more than 10 years, I’m skeptical. And I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m a real estate vulture.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-14 15:02:27

It is even worse than this. I think most of the speculation, including from Canadians, stopped in Phoenix even before the Oil Rout. Add the rout to that and you’ll be seeing the Canadians liquidating to cover before their losses elsewhere. And racing for the exits selling into a falling market.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-14 15:20:54

+1 Ben…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 16:40:40

“I know there’s still a glut.”

You can’t erase it by hiding it from view in storage at sea, either.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-14 22:30:12

No more than you can hide the glut of millions of excess empty houses.

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Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2015-02-14 14:59:02

For me, just dollar cost averaging to S&P index funds for the last 25 years gets me lots of shares of Exxon and Chevron.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-14 16:36:18

“Anybody else noticed how deafening the silence is from the oil bears on the blog these days?”

What is there to say at this point?

1) It seems like the market is in a protracted dead cat bounce.

2) Like Ben mentioned, down 60% and up 8% results in a change of

((1-0.6)*(1+0.08)-1)*100 = -56.8% loss.

3) I’m somehow still up on the energy mutual fund shares I bought in December; lucky me!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-14 18:45:49

Anyone else notice the same patterns of degenerate gambling take place whenever dumb money evaporates and newer, dumber money moves in?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-14 18:51:49

It’s a total crap shoot. The price of things has been so bent out of shape that it is impossible to predict anything except whiplash. And cascading defaults. Better to be tight than long.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-14 19:14:23

^There it is.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-02-14 19:09:49

hold

 
 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-14 16:15:01

It’s Saturday. And Valentine’s Day. Guys , did you forget to take out extra cash from your credit union to stuff under her side of the mattress?

Did you also remember to buy some darkcoin bits?

Currency hoarders snooze comfortably.

 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-02-14 19:08:20

crater

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-14 20:49:31

crater

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-14 19:30:12

Watch out where the Green Folks go, and don’t you eat that yellow snow

Antarctica: It’s Not Melting & Temperature Increase Is Zilch - There’s No CO2 Impact

The AGW hypothesis states that human CO2 emissions will cause the world to warm, with the the globe’s polar areas being especially vulnerable to rapid warming, due to CO2. Without any hesitation, not waiting for any actual empirical evidence, global-warming scientists and activists predicted that Antarctica will melt, causing incredible sea level increases.

It has not come true, and is not about to happen based on real world, scientific reality. (click on image to enlarge)

Antarctica 1000 Temps CO2

Luckily for the world’s inhabitants, the CO2-crazed “scientists,” alarmists and gore-profiteers have been spectacularly wrong. The historical Antarctica temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels provide proof that temperatures change significantly without a direct relationship to CO2 levels.

Per the Vostok ice cores, southern polar temperatures have made swings of 3 degrees Celsius during historical times while related CO2 levels have barely budged. And when 20th century human CO2 emissions increased dramatically? Vostok polar ice sheet temperatures have stayed flat. (Note: The mean temperature for Vostok over the ice core history has been a minus 55 degrees Celsius. The ice sheet won’t be melting even if there were swings in temperature of 20 degrees.)

Note: More evidence that the climate has experienced wide temperature changes prior to any industrial/consumer CO2 emissions, similar to what the Vostok ice cores reveal.

http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/05/antarctica-its-not-melting-temperature-increase-is-zilch-theres-no-co2-impact.html

 
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