February 16, 2015

Renting Was Never The Long-Term Goal

The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “Z Davis Robison and his wife, Mary, tried and failed for eight months to buy a house near their shop in Old Town Lafayette, before literally stumbling on the one they snapped up in January. ‘The time for thinking about what your needs are is before you start looking,’ said the Oklahoma transplant. ‘Whenever you see something, you have to be ready to pounce in this market.’ Mary was driving from their shop, Curating the Cool, and saw the landlord of a neighboring rental had just posted a ‘For Sale By Owner’ sign. Z raced across the street to look at the place. The owner was still there, and Robison wrote a $5,000 check on the spot to seal the deal.”

“The inventory is now so low, some in the industry argue, that it is causing the market to distort and contort in unexpected ways. ‘We have never seen it this low,’ said Kelly Moye, a Realtor with Re/Max Alliance in Broomfield. ‘It is a bit panicked. We are all in a race.’”

Bloomberg on New York. “One Tuesday last month, a buyer at Manhattan’s Stella Tower completed the $5.35 million purchase of a two-bedroom condominium on the 14th floor. That Friday, the home was listed for rent at a rate that makes it one of the costliest apartments in the midtown west neighborhood. The buyer, a shell corporation, is seeking $19,500 a month for the 1,787-square-foot apartment, according to StreetEasy. It’s one of three homes that have already been put on the rental market at the recently completed building, where owners began closing on their units at the end of December.”

“The high-end additions to the leasing market have curbed rent growth for luxury apartments in the last year, said Jonathan Miller, president of New York-appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. ‘What is being built on the condo side tends to be larger — not studios or one-bedrooms,’ Miller said. ‘They’re adding more supply to the part of the rental market where arguably less new supply is needed.’”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “If you want to rent a condo or townhome, your options in South Florida are disappearing. Many developers and investors who rented out units after the housing collapse are putting them back on the market now that home prices are rising. That means you’ll have a harder time finding one to rent, but you’ll have more places to look at to buy. You’ll see even more in 2015 and beyond, analysts say.”

“Over the past several years, Miami-based Mattoni Holdings bought about 150 condos and townhomes across Miami-Dade and Broward counties. The investment firm spruced up the units with fresh paint and new carpeting, found willing renters and enjoyed a strong cash flow before finally deciding the market had rebounded enough to sell. ‘Renting for us was actually very easy, but it was never the long-term goal,’ said Ricardo Caporal, owner of Mattoni. ‘Selling is almost like a cleanup — it’s closure.’”

LA Weekly in California. “Los Angeles has been called one of the least affordable housing markets in the United States. The California Association of Realtors this week had a little good news for us, though. Buying a home in L.A. was a little less unaffordable in the quarter of 2014. But it’s still unaffordable. The association says that 28 percent of Angelenos can now afford a median-priced home in this city, compared to 25 percent, or one in four of us, during the previous quarter. Hey, that’s progress.”

“Statewide affordability was up, too. Now 31 percent of Golden State residents can afford a median home, compared to 30 percent the previous quarter, according the association’s report. Los Angeles was one of the counties that ’saw the greatest quarter-to-quarter improvement in housing affordability due to price declines,’ the California Association of Realtors states.”

The Killeen Daily Herald in Texas. “If no more homes came on the market in Killeen and surrounding cities, it would take almost a year at the current pace to sell the more than 500 homes listed. A big contributor to monthly inventory is the rate at which cities such as Killeen and Harker Heights have been building new homes. According to Killeen’s permit reports, the city built between 40 and 100 single-family homes each month of 2014. Johnny Frederick, chairman of Killeen’s planning and zoning commission, admitted new home sales are essentially keeping older homes on the market longer by offering almost no money down for qualified military and nonmilitary new homebuyers. ‘With the new home builders, because money is so cheap on the credit side right now, they can borrow money so cheaply, they can afford to do that,’ Frederick said.”

CBS 5 in Arizona. “Experts anticipated a slight increase in foreclosures from December to January since fewer people foreclose during the holidays. But new numbers have some wondering whether the housing market is a long way from recovery. According to a new RealtyTrac study, foreclosures more than doubled from December to January, and are up 45 percent over this time last year. Christopher Smith with Neighborhood Housing Services said interest rates that were lowered with the Home Affordable Modification Program are now increasing, while household incomes are not.”

“Douglas McKeldey is losing his home to foreclosure after going into early retirement because of his health. He sends in what money he can, but said can no longer afford his monthly mortgage payments. ‘It’s really utterly embarrassing to have people like us in that shape,’ McKeldey said. He visited Neighborhood Housing Services in Phoenix to figure out how to keep the home he’s lived in for 14 years. ‘We have no idea at this point, I don’t know where we’re going to go,’ McKeldey said.”




RSS feed

67 Comments »

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 03:35:09

“Statewide affordability was up, too. Now 31 percent of Golden State residents can afford a median home, compared to 30 percent the previous quarter, according the association’s report. Los Angeles was one of the counties that ’saw the greatest quarter-to-quarter improvement in housing affordability due to price declines,’ the California Association of Realtors states.”

Sign of progress: The CAR now agrees with many HBB posters that price declines are a positive development, as they result in affordability improvements.

I can say with certainty that Realtors™ make no money when everyone is priced out.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-16 07:28:28

They don’t agree with that, they are just trying to put forth a positive spin to get everyone’s mind off price declines.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 08:36:47

‘Seven years after the housing market collapsed, Orange County home prices are at or nearing the peak in some areas, according to local agents and to a Register analysis of numbers from CoreLogic DataQuick.’

‘The county’s 2014 median price, at $585,000, is 7.9 percent below its pre-recession peak, closer than any other Southern California county to that improbable summit.’

‘Not everyone believes the county will be back to peak prices anytime soon or even thinks that getting there is a good thing. Agents also noted that statistical glitches in the data can distort what’s really happening.’

“It’s kind of a mix,” said Laguna Beach agent Bob Chapman, a broker associate with Teles Properties. “Some houses in some neighborhoods may have returned to the peak.” Chapman said homes are selling for bubble-era prices if they’re within walking distance of the beach, have spectacular views, are new or newly remodeled.’

‘Steve High, president of Villa Real Estate of Newport Beach, said homes selling for $3 million and under “met and slightly exceeded high points of 2007 in Newport Beach.” But prices still are well below peaks in the ultra-luxury market of $5 million and up, he said.’

‘Coldwell Banker agent Mac Mackenzie wonders what will happen to home prices once mortgage rates reach 5 percent for 30-year, fixed-rate loans – a “normal rate,” he said. Rates have averaged below 4 percent for the past four months. “If the interest rates are the lowest than any living person has ever seen and we still have inventory to sell, then where is the market really at?” Mackenzie asked.’

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 08:57:00

“If the interest rates are the lowest than any living person has ever seen and we still have inventory to sell, then where is the market really at?”

I don’t suppose anyone will be able to answer that until interest rates normalize later this year.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 09:03:03

Low interest rates are a form of partial loan forgiveness. If this is done on a grand scale to avoid cascading defaults, then why would it stop before it is an utter and complete failure? I am suggesting that the path to “normal” from here is not a smooth one.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-16 10:06:42

until interest rates normalize later this year.

Why do you think this will happen?

What is normalization to you?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 10:24:52

“Why do you think this will happen?”

The Fed has consistently said they would raise rates when the labor market recovered, and it has.

I’ve seen the Fed normalize rates before, and they usually don’t waste much time in the process.

Do you think this time is different for some reason?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 10:28:44

It looks like the Financial Times writers agree with my point.

Financial Times
February 16, 2015 11:05 am
Markets display total recoil on Fed interest rate rises
Tracy Alloway — New York
Investors betting on an easier rate cycle than forecast by the Fed

Cast your mind back to 2004: a fledgling social networking platform, Facebook, was launched; the television sitcom Friends completed a decade-long run; and the Federal Reserve embarked on what would eventually be a two-year tightening cycle of US interest rates.

It is now 11 years since the US central bank last began raising rates and, among finance professionals, memories of such an increase have grown ever fainter.

At least at the junior end, Wall Street is now peppered with traders and investors who possess no first-hand professional experience of an interest rate rise. Even for finance veterans, the habit of measuring one’s profit and loss on a day-to-day basis leads to notoriously goldfish-like memory spans and it has been six years since rates were last above the zero bound.

Despite investors and traders recently adjusting their forecasts for a rate rise to earlier this year their expectations of the size and shape of such a move remain distinctly out of whack with the Fed’s own projections.

The interest rate futures market, where investors bet on the future direction of US interest rates, is pricing in no more than 50 basis points of rate rises by the end of this year. By the end of 2017, futures traders are expecting a Fed funds rate of only 1.89 per cent. After that they are forecasting a rate of about 2 per cent.

All of those figures differ significantly from the Fed’s own projections, as illustrated in the central bank’s (in) famous “dot plot”. The median forecast in the latest set of the Fed’s distinctive spots from December shows the target rate reaching 1.38 per cent by the end of the year and then topping out at 3.75 per cent sometime in 2017.

While a rise of that magnitude may seem dramatic in the wake of six years of near-zero rates, in reality it is on a par with the size and shape of a typical tightening cycle.

According to Deutsche Bank data, while the average cumulative rate rise over the dozen US tightening cycles between 1954 and 2006 comes out to 531 bps, stripping out cycles that coincided with a period of very high inflation yields an average rate rise of 355 bps over a period of 26 months — very much in line with the Fed’s current forecast.

We believe that when the Fed begins the process of rate normalisation around the middle of this year, the path of tightening will look very similar to the ‘average’ cycle,” Joseph LaVorgna and Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank economists, wrote last week. “Financial markets are not prepared for such an outcome,” they added.

 
Comment by Shillow
2015-02-16 12:28:16

This says begin normalization, that’s a far far cry from rates normalizing. Yeah, they might token raise a quarter point or something, even that I tend to doubt.

Do you think this time is different for some reason? - of course it is different we are in uncharted and unprecedented territory. I don’t think you can seriously maintain it is NOT different now.

What is the normalization you see occurring this year?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 19:09:13

“What is the normalization you see occurring this year?”

Don’t read too much into my posts, which are meant as conversation starters, not as statements of belief.

I agree that it is different. I’ve pointed out that the last time rates went this low they stayed there from 1933 until 1948.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 03:38:18

‘They’re adding more supply to the part of the rental market where arguably less new supply is needed.’

Would that be the vacant part of the market?

Comment by prime+1
2015-02-16 03:50:24

Supply continues to increase at the same time rental prices increase. Bubbles have a logic all their own.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-16 09:16:52

$5,350,000 purchase price, renting for $19,500/month? After vacancy, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, the owner would be lucky to clear $100,000/year.

1.8% ROI assuming an all cash purchase. Fascinating. Must just be parking money. God bless America!

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 15:12:15

Not to mention the $300,000+/yr tedious loss to depreciation, and the inevitable haircut on price when the bubble that is California drops from the tree.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-16 22:11:26

It’s a Manhattan property…..

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-16 22:19:42

More to the point Jingle_Fraud.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by prime+1
2015-02-16 03:55:41
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 06:41:29

A good find:

Fri Mar 8, 2013

‘Billion-dollar investors backed by Wall Street continue to buy metro Phoenix houses with plans to turn them into rentals.’

‘RELATED STORY: Metro Phoenix virtual investors housing market’

‘New York-based Blackstone Real Estate, buying through a Tempe partnership called Treehouse, has spent several million dollars on houses in the region over just the past few weeks. At the end of 2012, almost 25 percent of all the region’s homes were owned by investors, according to an Arizona Republic analysis.’

‘Recently, a couple of former New York fund managers and a real estate investor partnered to create a new Phoenix-based group that not only is buying rental homes but also building them. Blank Berger has bought 45 single-family houses in the past year and has plans to build as many as 185 new homes to be bought or rented in Gilbert.’

‘The group is made up of Darryl Berger Jr., real estate investor and Ben Quayle’s brother-in-law; Matt Blank, a co-founder of hedge fund Longpond Capital; and Sam Blank, a former executive with real estate private equity fund RCG Longview.’

‘The Blanks’ father, Robert Blank, was a longtime board member of the publicly-traded home builder Toll Brothers. Berger said he and his partners formed the investment and construction firm “to take advantage of Arizona’s exploding housing recovery.”

‘He believes their group is one of only a few building single-family houses to rent instead of to sell.’

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-16 07:37:39

No one ever loses in housing just choose your model and plow in borrowed money. If you lose then get bailed out by taxpayers. No consequences.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 08:28:24

Has there ever been another point in US history when a comparable percentage of the residential housing stock was owned by investors?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 09:01:19

Not sure whether investor purchase activity subsequently picked up again, but we saw news it was unexpectedly dropping off already last fall.

Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Decrease on Fewer Investors
by Jeanna Smialek
1:55 PM PDT
September 22, 2014

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — A decrease in investor purchases prompted an unexpected decline in sales of U.S. existing homes in August, indicating the housing rebound is not yet self-sustaining.

Purchases of previously owned houses dropped 1.8 percent to a 5.05 million annual pace from a 5.14 million rate in July, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington. The share of properties sold to investors was the lowest in almost five years, the group said.

Transactions at the lower end of the market are suffering as the potential for higher interest rates makes housing a less attractive investment. First-time buyers have yet to fill the void amid slow wage gains and tight credit conditions.

The drop “adds to some of the trepidation” about a slowdown in housing, said Anika Khan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected sales would fall. “As we start to see overall improvement in employment,” particularly for younger Americans, “we’ll start to see that first-time homebuyer activity increase.”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-16 06:38:49

The Front Range Denver/Boulder/Fort Collins area has zero fundamentals to support these bubble prices

The jobs that would justify these sale prices simply do not exist

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 06:50:57

‘their shop, Curating the Cool’

‘Z Davis Robison’

Check out the photo of Z and judge just how much cool he’s curating.

Comment by Shillow
2015-02-16 07:46:11

He doesn’t have a job, he has a small business that sells vintage curios and knickknacks. It looks like a fun business. I doubt it pays his bills.

I wish him tremendous success parting Denver rubes from their $$ though.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-16 09:37:22

The Front Range Denver/Boulder/Fort Collins area has zero fundamentals to support these bubble prices

The jobs that would justify these sale prices simply do not exist

Prices aren’t as bubbly in Fort Collins as in Denver, but the job market sucks even more. There’s a reason why a lot of people commute to jobs in Denver.

But Denver is freaking insane. I’m guessing that prices (sq ft) in Denver are almost twice what they are in Larimer County (Fort Collins/Loveland/Berthoud). The only houses I see selling in Loveland are at the lower end (~200K). 300K+ houses seem to just sit and not sell, and it’s been that way for over a year.

The sucky Denver job market is why my Bay Area colleagues refuse to transfer here. They say that if they ever get fed up that they could find a decent new job in just a few days, and that headhunters are constantly trying to recruit them. That doesn’t happen so much in Denver. Compared to Silly Valley it is slim pickings for jobs here.

I mentioned the other day that my Silly Valley colleagues said that apartments near the Santa Clara campus rent for as much as 6K. That did seem outlandish to me, so I took a looksie online. What I found was what appeared to be very nice apartments that rent for $3000-$4000. I did find a place with $6000 rents, but that was definitely not the norm. They were nicer than the $3000 apartments but not twice as nice.

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-16 11:28:33

28yo I know just bought a $600,000 starter house in Boulder and is looking for roommates on facebook

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-16 11:43:05

How did he qualify for the loan? NINJA loans aren’t back … or are they?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-16 18:22:32

i have stopped asking where the money comes from, it’s all stem, stem, stem and lots of acronymns i don’t use in my vocabularity

denver is fvcking over, it’s over

 
Comment by Dudgeon Bludgeon
2015-02-16 18:36:13

Didn’t Google announce it was building a campus by Ace Liqueurs and Whole Foods on Pearl Street? Aren’t they bringing a load of new jobs to the area?
I don’t expect to ever live in Boulder again. That ship has sailed.

Add the appropriate ship sinking metaphor here as you see fit.
;-)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 08:43:16

‘The Europeans, Chinese, Russians and Brazilians are among the most active foreign buyers of Manhattan real estate. However steep declines in global currencies amid a rising U.S. dollar may have many rethinking that pricey pied-à-terre. “Its cooling from a frenzy to a rapid pace.” says Jonathan Miller, CEO, of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraisal firm that appraises roughly $5 billion worth of property annually in the New York City metropolitan area.’

‘Any slowdown may be driven by the Europeans, they make up the largest number of New York City foreign transactions according to Miller.’

‘Some of the city’s newer, luxury developments such as One 57 could feel the impact of a slowdown from high-end buyers. “It was the first one in what’s now known as billionaires row and that development sold, very quickly, initially, they raised prices very rapidly,” observes Miller who estimates the 90 story skyscraper is 75% sold. “The reality is that high-end buyers are still price sensitive and right now the absorption rate in that building is about one sale a quarter.”

‘As for the broader market, Manhattan is still viewed as a safe haven for many foreigners. “They are not really looking for a return they are just looking to preserve the capital,” which is even more important today says Miller, as China faces a looming real estate bubble, while Europe and Russia face possible recessions.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 08:48:30

‘The long-running love affair between investors and fixed-income assets could end abruptly later this year, and the breakup won’t be pretty. “Bonds are artificially expensive,” Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist with BlackRock, warned members of the CFA Society of Colorado at the group’s annual forecast dinner Thursday night in Denver.’

‘BlackRock, with $4.2 trillion in assets under management, is the world’s largest money manager, making it a key market player. Koesterich said valuations on bonds and bond alteratives, like utility stocks and real estate investment trusts, are hard to justify.’

‘An exit from those kind of assets, which the Federal Reserve could trigger with an interest rate hike in the second half of the year, might be orderly but could also prove panicked. “As we get into summer, pay attention to fund flows,” Koesterich advised the audience of analysts and money managers.’

‘Of course, market watchers have sounded warnings of a “great rotation” out of bonds and into equities in response to higher interest rates the past two years, especially at the start of 2014. That never materialized, and U.S. interest rates actually went lower last year, despite the strongest economic growth in 10 years during the second and third quarters, Koesterich said.’

“Rates should have been going up this late in the recovery,” said Wade Balliet, chief investment adviser with Bank of the West Wealth Management in Denver. But they didn’t, leaving market watchers searching for explanations.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 08:58:03

‘Rates should have been going up this late in the recovery’

Yes they should, leaving open the question, what’s wrong with this picture? Looking at the 10 year treasury right now, I see 2.02%. What? Is there a war on or something? Actually there are more than a few, but that hasn’t stopped global stock markets from hitting highs. Wait, if stocks are doing so well, why are billionaires “parking” money in expensive sky boxes? That’s the equivalent of mattress stuffing, except more than a mattress would ever hold. It’s almost like there is a whole buncha money out there chasing exuberance and fear and skyboxes and dairy farms, and risk isn’t talked about much.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 09:07:54

“Looking at the 10 year treasury right now, I see 2.02%.”

And if you looked a couple of weeks ago, you saw 1.68%:

Date 10 yr
2/2/2015 1.68
2/3/2015 1.79
2/4/2015 1.81
2/5/2015 1.83
2/6/2015 1.95
2/9/2015 1.96
2/10/2015 2.01
2/11/2015 2.00
2/12/2015 1.99
2/13/2015 2.02

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 09:14:19

“Tesco to cut up to 10,000 jobs”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11412403/Tesco-to-cut-up-to-10000-jobs.html

“The world’s tallest tower block goes on sale…the lavish apartments and penthouses, with interiors designed by fashion brand, Giorgio Armani, and spread over 117 floors, will start at £1.4m.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/international/11414098/The-worlds-tallest-tower-block-goes-on-sale.html

So much money getting sucked out of the bottom end, and looking for a place to hide as it squirts out at the top.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-16 10:45:48

Historians are going to have a field day with this era; when productivity reached record highs and yet the middle class was decimated.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Patrick
2015-02-16 14:01:32

With the USD cruising at Uber Altitude, do you think a rate hike now would help the employee looking for work ?

Or lead to a massive inflow of cash and hence an even higher dollar ?

The Fed’s Unintended Shows have hardly started.

Talk about being in a box !

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 14:57:37

Not really Uber altitude Patrick. Not that long ago I bought a canoe in North Bay when it was 1.35 Loonies to the Greenback. The problem with a lot of bubble jobs here was not so much the fine interest as it was the absolute flood of stupid easy money. Collapse of commodities says the flood is ebbing.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Patrick
2015-02-16 18:17:11

Were you sailing Lake Nipigon?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 19:51:02

Temagami region, portaging.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 09:03:49

‘An exit from those kind of assets, which the Federal Reserve could trigger with an interest rate hike in the second half of the year, might be orderly but could also prove panicked. “As we get into summer, pay attention to fund flows,” Koesterich advised the audience of analysts and money managers.’

Rule Number 1 of Panics:

He who panics first, panics best.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-02-16 10:03:11

Rule #1: Don’t panic.

Rule #2: If you do panic, panic first.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-16 10:30:33

Rule #0: Don’t position your portfolio so you have to panic when everybody else does.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 15:08:15

A portfolio well bunkered against panic is a wonderful thing. I think it’s called “mostly cash”.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-02-16 09:20:25

how can anyone want to buy in an oil state ? yikes
also Zillow comment
how can they go negavite on predictions if they serve realtors?

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-16 10:47:59

how can anyone want to buy in an oil state ? yikes

I thought the streets in Texas were paved with gold.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 09:41:10

‘Christopher Smith with Neighborhood Housing Services said interest rates that were lowered with the Home Affordable Modification Program are now increasing’

Since the MSM completely ignored the issue and the book, I guess it’s up to me to point out this situation was the exact point of the “foam the runway” for the banks discussion. Meet the foam:

‘It’s really utterly embarrassing to have people like us in that shape,’ McKeldey said. ‘We have no idea at this point, I don’t know where we’re going to go.’

I don’t know either, but I bet some boxes will be needed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 09:45:12

Barofsky Book: Geithner Confirmed in 2009 That HAMP Was Designed for Banks to Spread Out Foreclosures

‘Warren asked Geithner repeatedly about HAMP. After several evasions, Geithner said about the banks, “We estimate that they can handle ten million foreclosures, over time… this program will help foam the runway for them.”

http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/07/20/barofsky-book-geithner-confirmed-in-2009-that-hamp-was-designed-for-banks-to-spread-out-foreclosures/

 
Comment by oxide
2015-02-16 17:28:30

“how to keep the home [McKeldey]’s lived in for 14 years.”

Hey Doug, what did you do with the HELOC money? I understand you may not be able to make the payments, but if you bought in 2001, you could probably sell and break even… if you didn’t cash out.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-16 09:46:43

Cheaper to Live in California than New Jersey

The parents of a friend have decided to move from NJ to CA.
They listed their home last week and it sold in one day to an all cash buyer. $210,000.

Their property taxes were $5,600/year and the house payment was $6,360. The NJ insurance industry is so corrupt, their medicare supplemental insurance is $360/mon for him and $280/mon for her, plus $115/mon for prescription coverage for a total of $9,060/year.

They will rent a Sun City house for $1200/mon and use Kaiser Medicare supplemental insurance at $84/mon each, with no prescription co-pay.

New Jersey Costs: PITI + Medicare Insur = $22,020/year.

California Costs: Rent + Medicare Insur = $16,416/year and they have and extra $140,000 in the bank.

Assuming they earn 5% on their cash proceeds, it is $12,600/year cheaper for them to live in California. And they don’t have to shovel snow!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-16 09:51:04

‘Assuming they earn 5% on their cash proceeds’

Just buy some grilled cheese sandwich truck stock.

http://www.thegrilledcheesetruck.com/

Comment by Combotechie
2015-02-16 13:33:05

The Grilled Cheese Truck … There are only four trucks but they are scheduled to be in many places at many times - but in no case will a truck visit the same place more than once, at least not on this schedule. So all this boils down to …

PROMOTION!

Promote the cheese sandwiches and (surprise!) promote the stock.

Go here for a menu:

http://www.thegrilledcheesetruck.com/Pages/menus.aspx

Note that prices are not listed.

Comment by inchbyinch
2015-02-16 17:51:07

Man, I use to love grilled cheese as a kid, but talk about a waste of carbs and protein. Love the creativity of the menu, but after 45, staying healthy is all about nutrition. Broccoli becomes your best friend, and clean cold water becomes your beverage of choice.

Stay Healthy Y’all!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 09:57:35

The main point being that they can live much cheaper in an even more expensive state by renting rather than by paying a mortgage. Good for them getting off the debt treadmill in retirement.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-16 23:01:43

You’re right Blue, that when you’re entering your 80’s, owning isn’t always the best choice. However, NJ is a more expensive state than CA for many costs. No one ever runs that comparable analysis, which is why I posted it here, so people could start to understand.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-16 10:55:18

Cheaper to Live in California than New Jersey

Which just goes to show how insane Joisey is. Of course, they’ll be living in the boondocks in the California desert,but if it works for them, more power to them.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-16 22:29:50

With CA depopulating has quickly as it is, you’re going to need many more of these fools Jingle_Fraud.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-02-16 11:36:43

Renter couple across the street (4 kids 12 and under) have until May 1 to vacate, their LL is selling. Sad part is dad needs an organ transplant, and they are now rental shopping. Dad hasn’t been able to provide for the family very comfortably lately. This house was below rental market rates, since they have been there so long. Nice LL has been good about the medical crisis and cash flow.

There are times the risk in renting sucks.

So glad we put a paid off home in lieu of new vehicles.

Carpe Diem.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 12:02:22

“Nice LL has been good about the medical crisis and cash flow.”

Apparently only to a point is the LL charitable when the rent isn’t paid. You could probably have rented for the next 100 years, so what is your point really?

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-02-16 12:14:20

The rent is being paid on the 1st and 15th (1/2 ies), and no thanks to renting. Renting for the next 15 would be our break even and we can’t be asked to leave. $650/mo to live here.

Nice try blue, but your response came out of your asrse. Be a little more creative. Say, how’ the fishing going?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-16 13:14:39

Instead you paid a 250% premium for a rapidly depreciating asset.

You go Empty Pockets!

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 15:05:43

A testimony of what home poverty does to a person, once so polite and then when the money is all gone become vulgar and bitter.

Comment by inchbyinch
2015-02-16 17:43:37

blue
Cyber hug, not bitter, vulgar, and not broke. Buying made sense. And yes, $650/mo. $375 is the property tax accrual and the rest is insurance (HO & EQ). We couldn’t rent a room for our monthly nut. (So Ca)

My family always ages in a paid off home, That’s who we are. Nothing wrong w/ living on a boat either. To each their own, my dear.

Carpe Diem…Seize The Day. Life is short, my friend.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-16 18:21:22

Paying massively inflated prices for a depreciating shack and throwing good money after bad on it makes sense to fools.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 19:15:51

Fair enough Inchy. I personally am not in the tradition of my family, all the men have died providing for the faithful mothers of their children. Since I am the last one standing I will pass the time aboard a paid for boat. Raising hell, that’s the translation I believe.

I may still pester you though, for spending a fortune on a shelter in a bubble.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-16 13:21:28

“$650/mo to live here” sounds fishy to me. Plus how many hundreds of thousands for tears of joy?

Good luck to your neighbors.

 
Comment by cactus
2015-02-16 20:04:38

Smart inchy you don’t want to rent around here. My back yard is almost done put the grass in this weekend now a much smaller area than it was when I bought. Be 3 years in July.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-16 14:50:29

Citrus Heights, CA List Prices Plunge 11% YoY; Collapse 20% QoQ and 18% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/citrus-heights-ca/home-values/

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post