Bits Bucket for February 17, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Watch out where the Warmists go, and don’t you eat that yellow snow.
Gonna be lots of yellow snow up around our former stomping grounds.
Frosty the ice and snow man paid a visit overnight here in NC.
On our morning walk, my canine sidekick transformed some white snow into yellow snow.
+1 on the Zappa reference but Google News has an article linked titled “More infectious diseases emerging because of climate change”
Lions and tigers and bears oh my
Why does it hurt when I pee?
Do any of you serfs remember jonestown?
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-jonestown-stock-market-central-bank-kool-aid-for-the-lemmings/
Sure do. If you want a real freak fest check this out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkookcrAnSE
It’s the Jonestown “Death tape” - they made an audio recording as they started drinking the cyanide-laced Flavor Aid. Jim Jones “preaching” about how he loves them so much and poisoning their children is really for the best.
Some of the people actually tried to dissent, but were talked down. The key factor here in my estimation is simple lack of information. He was able to convince them that Americans were going to parachute in there and slaughter their children so the cyanide was a more merciful option. Had the congresscritter made it back home I picture worst case they send in troops to look after the kids and break the place up, but I can’t ever picture a mass slaughter of US citizens as he was portraying.
By all accounts the congressdude had left with a favorable opinion of the place.
Freaky lesson in what a charismatic can convince people to do en masse, particularly when their access to information is restricted/controlled.
Woman: “I think the babies deserve a chance to live”
Jim Jones: “What’s more, they deserve a chance at peace.”
Now shut up and drink the Kool aid.
I don’t think there was much of a choice to anyone who had a last-second epiphany. Jim Jones had gunmen to enforce his wishes. They killed a Congressman who was trying to get some cultists who wanted to leave, out. So, the choice was: You’re dying today, either from bullets or poison. Take your pick.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/books/review/a-thousand-lives-by-julia-scheeres-book-review.html?_r=0
It was kind of impressive that he got a thousand followers, but it was the same old story of a few armed, brutal guys controlling a large group of people - farmers and sheep - when it came time for the slaughter.
Not sure I agree entirely -
I’m sure the armed gunfolk were probably a factor, but if you listen to the death tape above, most everyone seems quite willing to drink the poison. There were some dissenters as I said, but the crowd was cheering when he talked about the sweet release of death and crossing through the doorway, finding peace, all the twisted happy horseshit and plenty/most of the people seemed quite happy to drink the Flavor Aid.
I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle with a contingent of “loyal unto death”(literally) followers and the others that got caught up in it.
Kinda like the Heaven’s gate thing. Most people don’t realize that they contacted earth from the spaceship behind the comet:
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/heavens-gate-cold-opening/n10977
[note: only seems to play in Internet Explorer]
Actually, I may be mistaken about the congressdude’s favorable opinion. I saw an NBC stock vid from there that showed him addressing the crowd and saying that “there’s a few people here who believe this is the best thing that ever happened to them their whole life” to which the crowd erupted in thunderous applause and cheering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm7k2Eq-vD0
That said, there is also footage early on in that vid of one of his legal aides quietly asking people if they wanted to leave and them saying they wanted to to go back home.
So it’s possible he figured out that a lot of the people were just toeing the line out of fear, knew he stepped into a viper’s nest and was putting on the cheery/happy face hoping to get the hell out of there alive.
OMG near the end of that clip the band is singing that (Whitney Houston?) son “I believe the children are the future…blah blah let them lead the way” song.
Such Irony. I feel horrible for the people that wanted to get out but couldn’t, but to those that stayed and drank willingly I say “Thank you from the bottom of Darwin’s heart” for removing yourself from the gene pool.
Not to diminish the tragedy here, but it was a helluva sales job to convince almost 1000 people to willingly kill themselves and their kids.
Am I the only one that sees similarities with the ‘Suzanne researched this’ hard sell approach that dooms the poor shlub to a lifetime of debt servitude? One could argue Jim Jones was merciful in comparison….
+ 1
You ARE diminishing the tragedy. I think that it is VERY poor taste to equate a mortgage with suicide, especially when the kids and babies didn’t commit suicide; they were murdered outright.
Did you pre-pay the next 30 years of rent? If not, then YOU are doomed to a “lifetime” of debt servitude too. If you don’t agree, simply stop paying your rent and see what happens.
Lighten up Francis.
It’s not diminishing it to compare tactics. Both Jim Jones and the Wife in the Suzanne commercial promised their victims they are going to a more peaceful place.
And you presume too much.
Rent isn’t prepaid Donk. That’s why it’s rent and half the cost of your massive monthly expenses.
How much is a gallon of gas with $10. oil ??
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDAQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergview.com%2Farticles%2F2015-02-16%2Foil-prices-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls&ei=DErjVMzNOIigNrCsg7gI&usg=AFQjCNGxUsV-8mSBNePsJz-ynnOYI5QQLQ&sig2=y9EwScrWGrkMY3S_QyA-vQ
so now the experts have given us a range of 10 -200. Somehow I feel gas will be back to 4 bucks a gallon soon.
To the question, at $10 it will be between $1.00-$1.50 IMHO.
To PB’s question yesterday about $100/bbl oil:
I do think it will go to $100/bbl again, but I would be foolish to set a time horizon for that. My current position long on oil is simply based on my observation of an excessive (IMHO) dislocation to the downside. This combined with the inevitable hysteresis that exists in any elastic system means that I can buy low and sell high, which is the name of the game.
If you want my prediction it would be for $70-90/bbl by the end of the year.
my prediction is oil will be where they want it to be.
basically wherever it lands you still have to buy it if you want to go to work or travel anywhere.
Its like trying to negotiate with your doctor.
I’m not going to waste a lot of time thinking about it either.
Our medical delivery system in the U.S. consists of parasites seeking to attach themselves to your health insurance plan so they can suck out as much money they can.
Doctors are the biggest crooks out there. They can’t answer the simple question, “how much is this going to cost”. First they have to check your insurance to see how much they can charge.
Doctors are the biggest crooks out there. They can’t answer the simple question, “how much is this going to cost”.
Heck, the local lab can’t even tell me how much a simple blood panel will cost. Then I get the bill. The rack rate on the bill is usually around $300, which is then reduced to something like $45 for the insurance company.
“They can’t answer the simple question, “how much is this going to cost”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXpx21Uf7hs - 210k -
Doctors are parasites attaching themselves to your health insurance plan. Got it.
That’s what your wallet says. Collapsing demand and massive overproduction says something else.
“hysteresis”
If you knew what this word means, you would exit immediately.
I definitely know what it means, and I’ve got locked in gains with stops, I do believe the upside potential is big though so my stops are trailing pretty wide at the moment.
And when the price blows through the stops, you’ll be left with nothing.
Drudge Report is all ISIS, Iran, and Israel today
American taxpayers and voters, you are being played for suckers and fools
Every Drudge link you click, another future PTSD case is created
And William Kristol is laughing at you!
Breitbart
Washington Times
Weekly Standard
World Net Daily
Fox News
All war, all the time
Think about it
OK, so I thought about it.
Think about the sources
There is “conservative” media that does not support perpetual war, but you have to seek it out to find it
Clicking and copying and pasting random Drudge links is intellectually weak, low-hanging fruit
And every time you click, you pull a Shekel out of the U.S. Treasury and put it in William Kristol’s pocket
Think about that
I thought about it, but it was hard. I hate to give Bill Kristol space in my head, rent-free.
+1
But of course Oceania has always been at war with East Asia…….
/heads off to room 101
//”Nineteen Eighty Four” was NOT a G.D. instruction manual
future PTSD case… great, now you made me have a worse thought.
William Kristol has never gotten his hands dirty in his life
Poor blacks and poor browns and poor whites from the South fight all of his wars, and American taxpayers get to pay for it
The question I’d like answered is: is this a two front war or a three front war in Ukraine and Iraq/Syria and Iran, because the wars in Iraq/Syria and Iran will probably merge at some point
All you tax cutters and government shrinkers, is this what you voted for?
Every Drudge link you click, another future PTSD case is created
At the same time, some al-Qaeda, Taliban, or ISIS dude gets blown to bits and then he gets his 72 virgins. So it works out for someone.
What does he do with them once they are no longer “virgins”? Eternity is a long time, or so I am told.
Maybe he suicides bombs himself again, landing himself a fresh afterlife with a fresh batch of virgins. It’s virgins all the way down.
Send ISIS to Washington, to do the jobs Americans won’t do.
Put Congress in a cage and set them on fire
American taxpayers and voters, you are being played for suckers and fools
Damn right. And I pound the table with that on my Facebook page. Some of the sheople get defensive but their solution is more taxes, more police state, more world cop, and armaggedon. Mention the cost and the debt and then only one will get clear-headed enough to say something favorable to stopping endless war.
+1
Breitbart - ISIS Has ‘Global Ambitions,’ ‘Presence in Europe’
Breitbart - Poll: Americans Disapprove of Obama’s Handling of ISIS
Breitbart - Obama Goes Golfing Again as World Mourns Christian Martyrs
Breitbart - Presidents Day: Ranking the Presidents on Israel Policy
The “War on Terror” has cost over $1.6 trillion so far
Do you feel like you’re getting your money’s worth?
Weekly Standard - Kristol Podcast: Obama, Copenhagen, and ISIS
Weekly Standard - A Rallying Call for Our Nation’s Defense
Weekly Standard - Why Obama Can’t Talk About Islamic Extremism
Weekly Standard - Bibi Ad Shows ISIS Asking Directions to Jerusalem
A Rallying Call? Rallying who? Rallying to do what?
The most humane political solution would be for the United States to offer open immigration to religious and secular Jews worldwide and give them the protection of our Constitutionally granted freedom of religion
But instead we have a $600 billion a year war machine in the hands of a Congress elected by Christian Zionists
Washington Times - Franklin Graham: ‘Imagine the outcry’ if Christians beheaded 21 Muslims
Washington Times - Benjamin Netanyahu tells Europe’s Jews to move to Israel, ‘your home’
Washington Times - Glenn Beck: World War III coming - ‘we must humble ourselves’ to God
Muslims are barbaric, got it
But is it really worth it spending over $600 billion a year to maintain Israel like it is East Berlin behind the enemy lines of the Middle East?
Is the Book of Revelation real?
World Net Daily - Hundreds of Jewish graves desecrated in France
World Net Daily - ISIS beheads, pope condemns, Obama golfs
World Net Daily - Top general: ‘Islamists embedded in White House?’
Fox News’ top headline right now is about the video of Jewish journalist Zvika Klein walking around the streets of Paris getting spat on and taunted with threats and anti-semetic insults
Anti-semitism is a real problem in France, but the solution to it is not for America to launch another trillion dollar war in the Middle East
You are being emotionally manipulated
The “War on Terror” has cost over $1.6 trillion so far ??
Thats only the dollar cost…Human cost is many times that…
Found this link to an accountant’s opinion on what would happen to anyone who hired illegals and paid them under the table.
http://survivalblog.com/letter-re-irs-to-pay-back-refunds-to-illegal-immigrants-who-didnt-pay-taxes/
“The article stated, “Under the new program, if you get a Social Security number and you work, you’ll be eligible to apply for the Earned Income Tax Credit,” Mr. Koskinen said.
He said that would apply even “if you did not file” taxes, as long as the illegal immigrant could “demonstrate having worked off-the-books during those years.”
This might make you mad that the illegals get a refund. However, read the statement, “…could demonstrate having worked off-the-books…” If the illegals show they worked off the books, the full wrath of the IRS will be coming upon the businesses or people who paid the illegals and did NOT withhold or match payroll taxes.
The amnesty is to the illegals not the businesses that paid them. The “Trust Fund Penalty” for not paying Social Security Tax and Medicare Tax is severe. The employer will be responsible for the employer and employee portions of the tax and penalties equal to 100% of the tax. If we do the math, let’s say you had a person, illegal, being paid $500 per week and he worked for 50 weeks. That would make his pay $25,000 per year. The tax you would have paid, if you had paid him legally, would have been ($25,000 * 7.65%) or $1,912.50. Now you will pay your portion, his portion and a penalty equal to both portions or $7,650.00 (1,912.50 (your tax) + 1,912.50 (their tax) + 3,825.00 (penalty)). Remember the statement at the bottom of your tax return, where you sign it; it starts out “Under penalty of perjury…” By signing your personal and/or business tax forms, if you paid illegal workers off-the-books, you also have committed perjury. Also, if the tax owed is substantial, you have committed FRAUD. FRAUD=Jail!”
I’d LOVE to see this happen. But why wait? Start the program now and go after every single a-hole who employed illegals. Let them pay the back taxes and penalties. And go to jail for fraud.
So the cloud has a silver lining!
Paying someone ‘off the books’ or under the proverbial table is certainly risky, but you misunderstand the trust fund penalty.
The ‘penalty’ is assessing what would normally be an entity level debt, like a corp or llc, and assessing it against those in the company who were responsible and willingly failed to pay employment taxes. The 7.65% plus any federal income tax withheld from an employee’s paycheck constitutes the trust fund. It is deemed to be the employee’s property upon earning it, but the company withholds it, and is supposed to pay over to the treasury. Hence, the term ‘trust fund.’
For instance, a small publicly traded tech company names new MBA grad a ‘temporary CFO’. Exciting right?
Unfortunately, the company was not depositing the amounts withheld from payroll and instead using it for operations. He discovered this and continued on in his employment for another 3 quarters. In that time, the company racked up close to $1M in trust fund liability. He then quit, but the IRS proposed to assess him the $1M personally. He hired a good lawyer and defeated the assessment.
‘Meet The Forces That Are Pushing Obama Towards A New Cold War’
Thanks for that, Ben. A real rogues’ gallery right there. Scum, really.
+1 for some discussion about that other front of our endless war
Ben Jones I posted all of my posts about the new war nested under my original post, so if HBB readers don’t want to read them it will be easier for them to just scroll past the nested thread
excerpt from a washington post article:
‘the mortgage interest deduction alone cost the treasury $113.4 billion in fiscal 2015 and property tax write-offs another $27.8 billion’
wall street journal subscriber paywall article excerpt:
americans add debt, but fissures appear
‘americans took out more loans as the year ended — up $117 billion, to $11.8 trillion, in the 4th quarter — yet also showed signs of having difficulty keeping up with their auto and student-loan payments’
See also:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/student-loan-delinquencies-rise-in-u-s-as-education-debt-swells
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes here
8 Goofs in Jonathan Gruber’s Health Care Reform Book : Blog …
fee.org/blog/detail/8-goofs-in-jonathan-grubers-health-care-reform-book - 56k - Cached - Similar pages
5 hours ago
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-17 11:08:26
8 Goofs in Jonathan Gruber’s Health Care Reform Book
fee.org/blog/detail/8-goofs-in-jonathan-grubers-health-care-reform-book
Everyone Must Check In
Elderly Man Facing 10 Years Over Unloaded, Flintlock Pistol
Prosecutors want retired teacher to serve at least 3.5 years for possessing 250-year-old pistol
by Kit Daniels | Infowars.com | February 17, 2015
A retired teacher is facing 10 years in prison for having a 250-year-old, unloaded pistol in his car.
Gordon Van Gilder, 72, was charged with a felony in New Jersey after he told a Cumberland Co. sheriff’s deputy he had a flintlock pistol in his car during a traffic stop last November.
“It’s a mid-1700s flintlock, bonafide antique pistol unloaded, and yet he’s facing the same draconian penalty as if he had a .44 Magnum loaded on his person,” his attorney Evan Nappen told NRA News. “It doesn’t matter [to N.J.]; there’s no distinction.”
Van Gilder, a self-described historian, purchased the pistol as part of his collection of 18th century artifacts.
“He’s obviously no threat to anyone, and he’s facing up to 10 years in state prison with a minimum mandatory three-and-a-half to five years with no chance of parole because New Jersey’s modern handgun law includes antique handguns,” Nappen continued.
The prosecutor even told Nappen the state would have to perform ballistic testing on the black powder pistol, even though its smooth bore doesn’t leave a ballistic trace.
“Gordon’s case screams out for making New Jersey’s gun laws in comforming with federal law [because] federal law has antique firearms as an exemption,” Nappen said. “This should have never happened.”
“Discretion, what ever happened to discretion?”
It doesn’t exist in New Jersey.
In 2013, for example, a N.J. judge sentenced former police officer Dustin S. Reininger to five years in prison after he was arrested for carrying firearms in the back of his vehicle during his move from Maine to Texas.
Even though federal law provides safe passage for a driver transporting firearms through a restrictive jurisdiction such as N.J., the jury never heard about the law during Reininger’s trial.
An appeals court also claimed that the law didn’t apply in his case because the SUV he was driving did not have a trunk.
No Big Gulps, no incandescent light bulbs, no cigarettes, no 30 round magazines, the “progressive” party is the party of Anti-Fun
Gordon Van Gilder, 72 was in possession of an unloaded mid-1700s antique flintlock pistol which is clearly in violation of New Jersey’s common sense gun laws.
We need to get these gang banging flintlockers off our streets.
Firing a Flintlock Pistol - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjeYe7w7zxs - 335k -
It’d be racis’ to not arrest a 72yo white geezer with an even more ancient flint lock pistol.
anti-ignorance, saving people
It’s the long-term demand outlook, stupid.
Heard on the Street
Oil’s Black Swans on the Horizon
Saudi Arabia may be targeting oil consumers, not just rival producers
By Liam Denning
Feb. 16, 2015 12:33 p.m. ET
Next week sees the one-year anniversary of Uber’s ride-sharing service arriving in Riyadh.
Disruption is creeping up on Saudi Arabia and the global oil market on which it relies. So far, this has centered on supply: North America’s shale boom has upended expectations of ever-increasing dependence on Middle Eastern crude.
But Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, is also worried about the other side of the equation. At a conference last month, he asked: “Is there a black swan that we don’t know about which will come by 2050 and we will have no demand?”
…
Do they mention any potential black swans? I can’t get past the firewall.
Business Insider - The trillion-dollar pension crisis is only getting worse because people are living too long
http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-a-pension-fund-manager-2015-2
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
I thought were were a nation of obese land whales
burn
Barbara Bush Finally Endorses Son’s Presidential Bid
Bonita Springs, FL (ABC News) - If Jeb Bush wants to run for president, he can do it with a clear conscience. His mom, former First Lady Barbara Bush, finally approves!
Mrs. Bush gave her son an endorsement to run for president on friday during a video chat.
It is about-face from what mrs. bush said a couple of years ago, when she said “America has had enough Bushes.”
The former First Lady went on to say that “our problems are so big that it doesn’t matter what your last name is in America. If America needs you for as long as you can help.”
http://www.siouxlandmatters.com/story/d/story/barbara-bush-finally-endorses-sons-presidential-bi/23124/ka8xEuR8EEGeJOc3RseNFg
Jed Bush -two words come to mind: oy vey.
This is news? Must be a slow news days.
Well it’s official. Can you say PANIC.
http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-mls-sales-forecast-to-plunge-nearly-50-this-year?__lsa=949e-1a95
Given the apparent collapse in oil-driven Canadian housing demand, what is the outlook for all-cash Canadian investment in US real estate?
Federal judge temporarily blocks Obama’s immigration executive action
Published February 17, 2015
A federal judge has granted a request by 26 states to temporarily block President Obama’s executive action on illegal immigration, allowing a lawsuit aimed at permanently stopping the orders to make its way through the courts.
U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen granted the preliminary injunction Monday after hearing arguments in Brownsville, Texas last month. He wrote in a memorandum accompanying his order that the lawsuit should go forward and that without a preliminary injunction the states will “suffer irreparable harm in this case.”
“The genie would be impossible to put back into the bottle,” he wrote, adding that he agreed with the plaintiffs’ argument that legalizing the presence of millions of people is a “virtually irreversible” action.
The first of Obama’s orders — to expand a program that protects young immigrants from deportation if they were brought to the U.S. illegally as children — was set to start taking effect Wednesday. The other major part of Obama’s order, which extends deportation protections to parents of U.S. citizens and permanent residents who have been in the country for some years, was not expected to begin until May 19.
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest, in a statement, reiterated the administration’s position that Obama’s executive actions were within the bounds of the law — and indicated they would appeal.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/02/17/federal-judge-temporarily-blocks-obama-immigration-executive-action/?intcmp=HPBucket
+ 1
I don’t understand how this isn’t disqualified under some form of equal protection under the law. If you are creating sheltered classes of people who are breaking the law, aren’t the unsheltered among them suffering from unequal protection from that law?
Is this like animal farm where some animals are more equal than others?
The liberal side to this is that the President isn’t “breaking” the law, he’s simply postponing and prioritizing in order to best allocate resources as he executes of the law the head of the exectuive branch. It’s the same principle used for postponing pieces of Obamacare like the employer mandate.
I don’t quite buy it.
cactus
Know a good affordable painter? Our exterior trim is in need.
Your yard must be nice. Glad to hear you’re almost done. Simi isn’t forever, so we are penciling out improvements, and not over improving. We scaled back our backyard plans. The pool is a pita, I’ll tell ya.
Blue,
I had tenants who took me out on their boat fishing 2Xs a month. It was a blast. I admire your lifestyle. When we lived at the beach one summer, our friends all lived on their boats. One night we took canoes into the canal tunnels. It was sooo much fun.
Tears of loss?
Arcadia, CA Sale Prices Plunge 16% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/
Arcadia, CA is a really nice area, but I’m not Asian, so I can’t overbid. Think So Pasadena (NASA JPL located here), San Marino-old money and new Asian dough. Wish I could live there.
You already got you wish of overpaying for a depreciating asset.
Arcadia, So Pasadena (NASA JPL campus), San Marino. Old mellow $ and lots of new Asian buyers. Wish we could afford to overbid.
Ben- Is it 10 -11 years now? I remember 2005, and the day I found this BLOG. Lots of great people have come and gone (literally).
You know it’s been a while given that a number of the original posters have permanently checked out from the planet.
Is Hoz among these departed souls?
Pittsburgh Realtors Sponsor 2014 Cornhole Classic
http://www.realtorspgh.com/calendar/rampeventcalendar/tabid/705/vw/3/itemid/863/d/20140607/Wounded-Warrior-Project-Cornhole-Classic.aspx
4Closure Ranch Panera Bread wait time is 0 minutes with eighty percent of the tables empty. Too many broke homeowners who can’t afford an $8 meal?
Vandals set fire at Florida church, write ‘Allahu Akbar’
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/vandals-set-fire-at-brevard-church-write-allahu-akbar/31313628
and people think im a rasis for wanting mosques to be destroyed.
phony scandals