Bits Bucket for February 21, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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So the huge snowfall we’ve been having in the Boston area is turning into an ugly object lesson about housing.
Backstory is that I have a bunch of colleagues who’ve gotten into houses (to live in, mostly) over the last three or four years. These are “low” end of the market, which around here means decades-old crapshacks.
Every winter I hear the stories of broken snowblowers and unreliable plow services that becomes these folks’ reality for a few months. Digging in and out of urban renter street parking costs me enough time and hassle that I’m not really in a position to throw stones. But this year we’ve had several feet of snow over a few short weeks combined with freezing temperatures, which for drafty crapshacks means a new and different problem: ice dams.
I’ve been watching this thing spread like ebola in real time. People heard the first stories, but were too busy dealing with their driveways to pay attention, until they woke up to find the living room ceiling fallen in, or their bedroom walls streaked with brown water, or their basements flooded. Now I hear them swapping tips about cutting out chunks of their walls to let things dry out. One guy had to have his sun porch demolished, and now has a dumpster to go with the layers of ice in the driveway. Many have had to take vacation time to deal with the worst of it.
I want to repeat that I like these people and do not wish them ill. At all. But anything that hastens the end of the housing mania is to be welcomed, and this is helping.
I wrote here a few weeks ago about one colleague who, over my quiet suggestion not to double down, bought a new home before the old one was ready to sell (home improvements before putting it on the market, don’t ask). In the ensuing month, what’s happened?
1. The old place finally went on the market, on the weekend of the first blizzard. Crickets! She’s cursing her luck: there was the snow; there was another place that was a little nicer/more expensive down the street that went on the market the same day, sucking the air out of the room. In the meantime, her place has been sitting on the market for three weeks, and that doesn’t look good. So she’s talking about pulling the listing and relisting it as new in another month …
2. Ice dams. Because she had the place on the market, she was aggressive about hiring someone to get them cleaned up, and a good thing too, as she’s avoided the damage that many others have experienced. But it cost her $2000. Two thousand dollars, cash! I’ve had huge rent increases last two years, but that’s more than all of last year’s increase in one pop. And a week later we’ve had another pileup of snow, and she’s got ice dams again.
None of this is new to folks here. But being armed with HBB perspective and watching it play out has been a real education for me.
Here’s some info about ice dams (some info for warm climate people, such as myself):
http://www.wbur.org/2015/02/20/ice-dam-tips
Ice dams can cause roof leaks and mold. It gets expensive.
Improper insulation in a house causes ghosting. Most people here probably have never heard of such a thing in a house.
http://home-partners.com/articles/ghosting
+1,000
Life is too short to waste time dealing with that kind of nonsense
Loanownership is a major cause of heart failure.
Loss after loss after crushing loss. That’s what houses are.
Easy fix. The last fall clean out of the gutters I lay in heater wires. Plug them in when it snows. Never have had a ice dam. Pull out the heater wires in the spring.
Learned my lesson after one hard smowy winter.
Easy fix. The last fall clean out of the gutters I lay in heater wires ??
I would think something similar could be done in the attic to help heat the roof…
^lol.
Serious question: Wouldn’t having a metal roof to begin with prevent ice dams? They use metal roofs a lot in the western part of Virginia, on and around Allegany /Appalachian foothills. My girlfriend - a native - said it was to prevent snow buildup.
Seems like they cost a lot more to install originally, but if they prevent subsequent damages from snow piling up on roofs, it might be a productive trade-off. Not to mention - I find it hard to imagine myself pleading with contractors to come clear off my roof; and delusional to do it myself.
Fluffy RE-related flights of fancy: My thinking since 2010 about an ultimate hidey hole has evolved.
1) Oil City surround. Hypothesis: With increasing population concentration in job centers, Oil City may be found within 100 mi of the westernmost commutable edge of the Boston-DC corridor. No need to move to Montana.
2) Two floors, stone and concrete structure, 18″ walls. You can shoot at the Golden Horde coming up your driveway from the second floor. The 18″ walls provide real cover.
3) Entrance to 3 foot diameter, downsloped conduit behind moveable bookshelf-on-rails in basement. Conduit leads to dense berry patch from which hasty escape to adjacent woods may be conducted under concealment
4) Metal roof
5) Second floor windows narrow and squinty, just enough to provide full range of fire.
6) That being said, you gotta have a quick escape route and a way to get out from the second floor. Hence, an escapable casement window with a retractable balcony that looks like a set of closed shutters, that operates like a Murphy bed opening outward. A well-placed fireman’s pole would facilitate a forced retreat. That failing, a trusty tree with a retractable ladder.
7) Root cellar accessible from basement, or
9) Note to self: research use of silica gel as basement wall material?
10) Huge honking pantry with escape hatch to basement.
(Yes. A total waste of time and space. Most likely scenario - I’ll get Spartan digs in a couple of locations close to the kidz and Class C RV my way from one to another to another in stately procession).
- In truth, the paranoia chatter in the area has dialed way down since 2010. This, even though “income inequality” has become a legit topic for public discourse. Perhaps preparedness priorities have shifted to this seemingly endless winter cold.
I’m not seeing your decline in wishing prices here on the ground, HA - couple of crapshacks have been pulled off the market after not selling for months, and RELISTED AT 10% MORE!!! In the absolutely un-commutable exurbs - 70 mi plus - the price changes are in downward direction, in piddling amounts of 1% - 5%. These would be to the west: Front Royal and Strasburg. To the SW (off 29): Madison, Gordonsville, Orange.
I’m starting to think that not only is the RE syndicate delusional, but also the citizens. I work with these guys (the citizens), and in general they seem pretty sensible.
“Serious question: Wouldn’t having a metal roof to begin with prevent ice dams? They use metal roofs a lot in the western part of Virginia, on and around Allegany /Appalachian foothills. My girlfriend - a native - said it was to prevent snow buildup.”
Okay, help me out with my ignorance:
Why would a metal roof prevent snow buildup?
I don’t think it would. Metal is much stronger in ice/snow, though. It’s like a 50 year roof or something.
Why would a metal roof prevent snow buildup?
Beats me. All I can say is, my roof has the least amount of snow buildup of any house in my neighborhood. I am enduring my 2nd severe winter since I installed a metal roof in 2013 and have noticed this roof is very prone to shed ice & snow, even with the minimal solar heating we get on most winter days here in northern OH. That accounts of 3/4 of my roof. I am starting to get used to the loud crashes of snow/ice suddenly sliding off the roof, nearly always in daytime hours. Then I have a portion of the roof that has an abrupt slope change to accommodate a 6×6 foot front porch. The ice slides down the steeper uphill part of the roof, then abruptly slows down right over the less steeply pitched porch roof portion. This area is also in part shade most of the day due to a gable just to the south. The moving snow & ice stops on the porch roof, builds up and then drips into the 6′ long gutter, where it freezes solid since this whole 36 sq ft area of the roof is ambient outdoor temperature. The gutter then has a buildup of ice until it overflows, dripping on my front steps, right where I don’t want it.
It’s not a true ice dam.
I suspect I might be able to cure this by simply running a heating cable along the bottom of the gutter, which, when powered on, would continually melt the leading edge of the ice. Unfortunately this gutter has been ice-bound for 3 solid months and not really accessible for any work.
Friend of mine paid a bundle for a metal roof on his custom built home. I don’t know how it does in the snow, but it leaks in quite a few places when it rains, despite him having it worked on several times.
Friend of mine paid a bundle for a metal roof on his custom built home
In 2013 I really looked into the material costs for asphalt vs galvanized metal roof coverings. The price difference was maybe 30% more per unit area with metal, not very much (strictly for materials and comparing the cheapest asphalt to the cheapest galvanized sheet metal). I also observed the roofers applying the new metal roof. The galvanized sheeting was very easy to apply as long as the roof deck was perfectly flat without any gable, vents, chimneys, etc., since they were applying sheet materials 3 feet wide by 18 feet long. The hitch was in the irregularities of typical roofs. I have a front side gable with a patch of roof over a front porch where the pitch changes and creates some complex angles. When the roofers got to this area, they really slowed down, it took them many more hours to cut & adjust the huge panels to fit properly. 1/4 of my roof area took about 1/2 of the total time of the job.
So you have to expect certain installation difficulties in metal roofing compared to asphalt shingles. Even allowing for that, the estimates I got from roofers made me think they were marking up their metal roof jobs far more than asphalt jobs because “everybody knows metal roofs are very expensive”.
If it was a standing seam roof(unlikely), they forgot the butyl tape. If was panels, either they forgot the tape on the side laps or it’s leaking through the fastener gaskets.
What did they charge you for materials /sqaure?
My money is on them forgetting the tape, since they also forgot to put the filler in his ridge vent, resulting in a foot of snow inside his attic his first winter there.
Did you look at tin shingles?
I don’t have the breakdown between material & labor easy to figure, my net cost / square was $458, including tearoff of 2 previous layers of asphalt, replacement of about 32 sq feet of damaged deck that had rotted through. $432 was a competing estimate just for asphalt shingles. 16 squares total, on & off my roof in 9 or 10 hours of a single day.
Figure $100/sq labor on clean deck. Anything else is extra.
Most standing seam metal roofs around here are snap-loc with hidden fasteners and they don’t require butyl. It’s probably an exposed fastener roof and the screws backed out.
Not really. If a standing seam doesn’t get butyl in the channel by the installer, there is a strip already in the lap channel that gets activated and squeezed by the seamer. Fasteners for standing seam are SS clip angles every 5′ on the side lap that gets wrapped by the adjoining channel. Depends on the system.
You don’t want to heat the roof. It’s melting snow (and re-freezing) that causes ice dams. I saw this a lot in Flagstaff, and it is very destructive. The wires are effective, but not perfect. The best solution is raking the snow off.
put some of the unemployed to work shoveling snow? I know that is actual work though.
And on a re-roof go with tin. Tin beats shingles to death.
It’s melting snow (and re-freezing) that causes ice dams… best solution is raking the snow off ??
Makes sense…How the heck do you accomplish that though ?? I know in the Tahoe area they many times use metal roofs that they say help with the snow…
A roof rake? Jiminy cripps.
“The best solution is raking the snow off.”
+1 A family in town lost a child when a large sheet of snow covered ice slid off the roof crushing the youngster making a snowman in the yard.
Roof rakes are aluminum dealies with really long handles so as to be light weight. The rake top is wide and tall, like 3 feet by 8 inches. Most that do this hire people like you get someone to shovel your driveway. The trick is to get the snow off pretty quick. Just like if you wait a few days before you shovel the sidewalk; you have 3 inches of ice on the bottom that is difficult to break up. I’d say the majority in Flagstaff don’t do anything and just let roof damage occur.
Damn the ice anyway.
My neighbor is apparently heating their roof. The back of the house is one giant sheet of icicles reaching all the way to the ground.
I know of steam cleaning carpet cleaning companies do this type of work with their steam cleaning machines. In Rockland county NY the price to take care of ice damming on a walkable roof is around $750 to $1000.
Sounds like a great business opportunity for enterprizing entrepreneurs.
Just like if you wait a few days before you shovel the sidewalk; you have 3 inches of ice on the bottom that is difficult to break up ??
Wow…What a pain in the arse….
And Boston house prices are higher than much of California.
And on a re-roof go with tin. Tin beats shingles to death.
I second that. I’m very happy with my metal roof, which turns 2 in April.
Easier fix: Move to SoCal, and only deal with ice dams vicariously when reading articles about them.
+1.
On second thought - You do not want to move to SoCal; Life here really sucks. You should do all you can do to stay where your are.
(but you CAN visit, and when you do visit please bring along lots, LOTS of spending money)
Oh yeah…I forgot about the rude drivers, bad traffic, terrible air pollution, unaffordable housing prices,es, libruhl extremist voters, hordes of illegal aliens, confiscatory tax rat and lack of jobs that can support a livelihood.
But otherwise, it really, truly is a great place to live!
“tax rates” (that was a Freudian typo…)
Earthquakes, don’t forget to emphasize earthquakes.
Also don’t forget about droughts and wildfires…God clearly is punishing California for its very existence.
Disasters
California wildfires rage on
Published February 09, 2015
Associated Press
Feb. 6, 2015: The Round fire burning at Wheeler Crest near Bishop Calif. Firefighters have gained the upper hand on a wind-driven wildfire that destroyed 40 homes, burned nearly 11 square miles and forced about 150 people to leave two small California towns at the eastern base of the Sierra Nevada. (AP)
Four firefighters were injured battling a wind-driven wildfire that ravaged communities along the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and destroyed 40 homes in an area that could see more wildfires as the state enters its fourth year of drought.
As the fire headed into a fourth day Monday, more than 200 people were still under orders to stay away from their homes in Swall Meadows and nearby Paradise, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Capt. Liz Brown said. People whose homes were not destroyed could be allowed back in as early as Monday afternoon, Brown said. The firefighters’ injuries were minor, she said.
Rain moved in over the last few days, but it hasn’t been enough to completely put out the fire. A three-year drought across California has created extremely dry timber brush that fueled the flames and pushed them all the way up the Sierra slopes to the snow line around 8,000 feet, she said.
…
Oh gosh I was becoming blissful about my anarchist way of living on weekends in the OC and you guys bring up earthquakes and fires. Just reminded me to take my BP medicine…
The dedicated bike paths here are awesome though. it’s a cool overcast day and perfect to bike around Irvine. 54 miles of dedicated paths.
No snow. No ice.
No snow. No ice.
Snow shoveling, as an exercise, is far superior to mere bicycle riding.
“Snow shoveling, as an exercise, is far superior to mere bicycle riding.”
Not so sure on that. Have you visited The OC? If you bike on trails in the mountainous areas, I’m guessing it’s plenty strenuous, and far more scenic than looking at snow on your driveway.
The mountain bike trails are probably strenuous though PB. There’s a dedicated paved trail called Aliso Creek that runs along a creek, of course, and seems to be a slow elevation gain from west to east as you pedal toward Saddleback Mtn.
The Irvine trails are relatively flat for sure. But they are still a great way for a workout. Do about 20 miles in an hour or so and you burned 1000 calories.
Speaking of global warming, I spotted a variegated Snow Tit in the back yard this morning.
Should I put some food out for it?
Grexit no more?
“Grexit no more?”
Why, it’s a miracle!
Which nobody could have foreseen…
No one ever takes a loss.
Eveyone always takes a loss, as wreckless lenders and the subprime borrowers they loan to have a standing commitment from western government central banks to bail them out at the inevitable moment of predicable crisis. The people’s money is diluted by the electronic printing press to make wreckless gamblers whole, so the losses are distributed to anyone who relies on western currency.
U have to pay the bankers their cut to be in the game! It is very difficult to collect interest and keep track of loans.
No, no one takes a loss if they are bailed out with funny money. This has been going on for years. No reckoning.
“No, no one takes a loss if they are bailed out with funny money.”
The losses don’t go away due to bailouts; they just get spread around so those responsible never pay the price of their financial folly.
Instead of a Grexit, they got a Grextend.
Instead of a Grexit, they got a Grextend.
What’s the point of elections after all? Tsipras is bending over and asking for more.
so those responsible never pay the price of their financial folly
That’s called not taking a loss. Look, I’d love to see it, but what should be happening, losses and the change in behavior that comes with them, is not happening. No losses because of bail outs.
Everyone loses because of bailouts, as the economy has evolved into a giant gambling casino where investment banks and hedge funds collect bailout money when their worthless investment schemes go belly up.
Apparently not everyone loses, the hedge funds and investment banks don’t.
OK, let me rephrase that:
The 0.01% gain at the expense of the 99.99%.
Can anyone kindly remind me of the definition of “bank run”?
Europe News
Greeks Stash Their Cash, Just in Case
Fearing currency changes or capital controls, Greeks have yanked billions from banks and hidden it in flower pots, freezers, and yes, under mattresses
People line up at ATMs outside a branch of Alphabank in Athens this week. Greeks have withdrawn more than €20 billion in recent weeks. Photo: Reuters
By Nektaria Stamouli And Matthew Karnitschnig
Feb. 20, 2015 3:51 p.m. ET
ATHENS—Athens may be in danger of default, but Greece is awash in cash.
Worry over Greece’s membership in the euro has prompted the withdrawal of more than €20 billion ($23 billion) in recent months, government officials say. Most of the money has remained in Greece, squirreled away in kitchen cabinets, flowerpots and under mattresses.
The outflows began in December in anticipation of elections that brought a leftist coalition to power. The withdrawals have cut the deposit base in Greece to about €145 billion from €164 billion in late November, forcing the European Central Bank to raise the amount of emergency liquidity it extends to Greek banks.
…
The precedent has already been set for “bail-ins” aka officially sanctioned theft. Way to go, ECB, for further undermining faith in the financial system.
The best technique here in the land of the fake freedom is to regularly withdraw a set amount in cash weekly from your bank…”it’s for a nice dinner once a week at a nice restaurant in Newport Beach with a nice lady and a nice bottle of wine, why do you ask?” The deal is that banks are expected to report odd cash transactions.
I have to get a bigger mattress…
People with mortgages are a bunch of sad, old loosers
A reverse mortgage is designed for winners.
Visit your local banker and
… MAKE IT HAPPEN!
“A reverse mortgage is designed for winners.”
Indeed.
If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years. It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.
Kirkland, WA List Prices Sink 17% YoY As Price Declines Spread
http://www.zillow.com/kirkland-wa/home-values/
interstate 70 crater rage pit stop
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150221_060526_094-5JkGclIM.jpg
This is pretty cool, I have a front row seat to watch Colorado Department of Transportation firing off explosives doing avalanche mitigation just below Loveland Ski Area
Good thing I dropped a deuce at Mickey D’s, gonna be sitting here a while
You gonna finish that sausage biscuit?
yuck
The thought of being plugged-up with that white-flour doughy biscuit makes me want to gulp down a huge tumbler of water with three heaping spoonfuls of Metamucil. Or does that hash brown provide enough grease to lube your plumbing?
the hbb haters were calling me anti-american yesterday
nobody who eats mcdonalds is anti-american
if you don’t like egg mcmuffins maybe you should move to north korea
McDonald’s is NASTY.
the hbb ip logs will confirm that clubber lang = mr smithers = macbeth
Desperate keyboard kowboy karacters.
It is painfully obvious that they are the same person
Now what I’d like to know is who is paying him to post here
It’s an uncomfortable character study. A guy talks about communism while he’s probably surrounded by made in China junk.
It goes to show how propagandized everything is. The Ukraine situation, for example; the MSM could hardly be more upside down and twisted. All of them. How can this be? The same neocons that were for arming ISIS now sit around and criticize anyone who doesn’t want yet another invasion of a far off land? How many ass-kickings does it take for the US to realize you can’t just bomb your way in, knock everything over, and a benevolent US cow-towing nation will spring up? We’ve gone from Syrian regime change to fighting the monster we created without hardly any notice. Just how does a war change enemies mid-fight if there isn’t something really screwed up involved? Communists? I’m supposed to be worried about Communists when they are buying houses all around us?
“How many ass-kickings does it take for the US to realize you can’t just bomb your way in, knock everything over, and a benevolent US cow-towing nation will spring up?”
I never thought for a minute folks like Rummy believed the highly implausible ‘Shock and Awe’ propaganda pitch used to get the US into Iraq. It was simply a justification of convenience to start a war in an oil-rich state.
For some reason, it appears that deep pocketed political party animals seem to occasionally send fake posters here to repeatedly derail intelligent discussion with a nonstop barrage of partisan political propaganda. At least that’s how it seems, though I guess it’s possible that there are people who are imbecilic enough on their own to throw this recycled partisan garbage at us without financial renumeration.
The most offensive part is that if you call them out, these assholes will label you as an extreme advocate of the opposite party position and attack you for it, driving away people who just want to discuss the economics of the Housing Bubble.
“remuneration” (never type that word before coffee without spell check)
“Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.”
We’ve forgotten this. These flag draped kooks are scoundrels. Guiliani can kiss my grits.
For instance; communists don’t have any money to buy houses. Real communists can’t buy coffee. So there is something else going on here. Will any of these arm-chair bombardiers suggest taking on the WTO? Oh hell no. That is the real elephant in the room. Would they suggest we stop the Chinese money-laundering? That’s would be bad for business, for some. And the central banks. Don’t even suggest these guys should be reined in. Where in the concept of capitalism does it say some entity should have the right to counterfeit trillions of pesos and lose bubbles all over the planet? Jiminy crickets, we’ve got some big problems, and if you watch Fox/CNN, it’s the guys in orange jumpsuits that are the threat to humanity.
You’d have your own syndicated column in a world founded in reality.
+1 P-Bear
Even though you voted for Dianne Feinstein 10 times we know you’re an independent
I would by 2brony a beer just to hear him tell me about the “goons”
I’m not saying anything that others haven’t said better. At least we have the internet. But for how long? There are sitting senators that have the nerve to talk about real journalists. I was thinking about this last night; if you had asked 15 years ago; would the US government get away with tapping every phone call and email? Impossible. Yet the Patriot Act was written and waiting well before the Pearl Harbor like event. How impossible is it to think this cage being built around us isn’t meant for us? We live in a time when people are thrown into prisons, and tortured for years, without trial. When reporters are wiretapped and threatened with prison to prevent leaks. Just what fresh hell are these people incapable of?
Ben Jones, I don’t even pretend that I have privacy anymore
NSA knows all about the drugs and porn and Tinder hookups
Do you track many dot gov or dot mil hits in your IP log?
Classic Internet paranoia that anyone cares.
Guiliani can kiss my grits ??
He is a moral decadent piece of chit….
“Even though you voted for Dianne Feinstein 10 times we know you’re an independent”
It seems silly to suggest I would support a senator who supports taking away the constitutional right to Freedom of Speech.
‘I don’t even pretend that I have privacy anymore’
None of us do. Here’s the biggest problem with this situation; OK Mr Government, you want the right to spy on everyone, draw up a change to the constitution. Get it passed the way the constitution requires. What’s that? You don’t have the votes or support? Then what you are doing is illegal. The NSA and the government behind it belong in jail. There is no question about this. Yet federal judges keep it going. Maybe they should be in jail too. Our entire system is running on its own, no checks and balances. That it hasn’t rounded up thousands of citizens and shot them doesn’t change what it is. Yet Limbaugh and others will go on and on about the founding fathers, and the constitution and freedom. I’ll tell you something. People that took this country from the British wouldn’t believe what this government has become.
+ 1 Ben,
People that took this country from the British wouldn’t believe what this government has become.
Hear, hear.
And +1 on that +1
This is why I read this blog
Powerful thread folks! Much appreciate your posts!
This Patriot Act and NDAA are nothing new. 1798, just 11 years after the constitution, there was the draconian Sedition act. Then again in 1918. I’m thinking that another Sedition Act is imminent.
The constitution was supposed to protect the US citizens from another King George, but in 1791, just 4 years after the birth of the constitution, the “whiskey tax” was implemented. The constitution was not even ratified until 1790. The harshness resulted in “the whiskey rebellion.” And 8 years after the constitution was ratified was the first Sedition act.
A facebook friend thinks that since the Bill of Rights and the Whiskey tax were put in effect the same year, 1791, the politicians must have figured they “granted” the people enough rights so now it’s time to throw in the tax.
The USA has a track record just about from the start. There has never really been a limited government in the USA. The constitution failed miserably.
Lysander Spooner wrote why the constitution has no authority anyway. “No Treason: The Constitution of No Authority”
Macbeth, I think, is a separate person. Clubber lang, in his few posts, exhibited the hallmark dittohead generalized talking points. Macbeth ire is directed at federal workers on a more personal level, being closer to the Beltway.
good point, macbeth targets his dismay pretty specifically
clubber lang is more of a general purpose hater
No one is paying anyone except Lola to post here.
No one is paying anyone except Lola to post here.
I know. I’m a serious threat to your false preconceptions on a lot of stuff Shillow but do the math. Why would someone pay anyone to post on this blog? I love the back and forth and intelligence level, but is it really big enough for anyone to be paid to post stuff? I have no idea but I doubt it. If it were, Ben could be a millionaire tomorrow.
oxide has great perception on posters identity and style. As she just showed above. And oxide said it right again way back when she said there’s no way I could be paid because I’m basically too complicated, and long-winded to affect any goobers enough to be paid. I’m sure she could explain it better.
I tell you what. If there were a way to put up 10K as a wager to be paid to Ben’s blog, I’d let a third party run a financial background check on me to see my income source if somehow my personal info would not be released to your fellow dullards like HA. And I have the 10K.
‘is it really big enough for anyone to be paid to post stuff’
I know that’s your way to insert a little put down, but it doesn’t bother me. What I do know is anything is possible. We know the pentagon admitted they troll blogs and social media over-seas to influence opinion. These PAC’s do have a lot of money. I receive emails everyday, offering “experts” for interviews; think tanks, Harvard, those kind of people.
I’ve thought about how I would do it. Set up some guy who can type fast or use the voice to text software, in a place where $10 is a lot of money. Give him a good computer with 3 screens. Send him talking points via email that could easily be copy/pasted into a comment. And then instruct him to troll 15 or so blogs at a time, paying him $10 a day to do it. I could run a couple hundred of these guys on a budget Rove or Soros could easily finance.
I know that’s your way to insert a little put down,
It totally was not. I’m sorry if it seemed that way because I respect you and your blog and you letting me on it and I was hesitant to say it but it was the only way to make the valid point. Your blog is one of the best I’ve come across but I think blogs that have paid posters would have to be huge, like CNN or Yahoo even with your scenario of how it could be done.
But I thought it was a valid point to counter a false BS charge.
I have NOT and DO NOT get paid by anyone to post on any blog. EVER. And my 10K challenge to check out my sources of income stands. And I do not work for $10 an hour. Even private English teachers without my education can make $30 an hour here. Sorry again if you thought it was a dig. It wasn’t.
That “Clubber Lang” thing was a piece of work.
Here’s the thing about CNN etc, comments; they are largely unreadable. I might read the last 10 or 20, but I’m not going to page through 1,200 comments on an article about a panda cam. Anyway, 80% of it is “Obama sux” “no u sux”.
At least the main instigator of that line of conversation on the HBB decided to stop posting here.
Lola,
You don’t respect yourself no less anyone here.
I don’t respect you HA, you are a dimwit.
I’ll put up 10,000 mangos
Housing prices falling CHECK
25 MILLION excess, empty and defaulted houses CHECK
Housing demand at 20 year lows and falling CHECK
Housing prices inflated by 250% CHECK
Household formation at multi decade lows CHECK
Rampant housing fraud CHECK
Public denial formed and supported by a corrupt media CHECK
Population growth the lowest in US history CHECK
Immigration flat to slightly negative CHECK
Oh my word
“How do you make a small fortune? Borrow a large fortune and buy a house.”
You better believe it Mister.
I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it
You just threw some at Uncle Mickey. Not that i can criticize. You guys probably don’t want to know what I throw at the natural foods store and the farmer’s market.
Crater Taters are the only thing on the menu for Debt Donkeys.
mortgage debt slaves are selling blood plasma twice a week and can still barely afford ramen
Double the height of the mattress. That is from BILA Personal Finance ® handbook.
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
Rent everything except cars, currency, insurance, and your nestegg. Buy a cheap Japanese import and use it as your only car. Keep it as long as possible before the repair bills get too ridiculous. Then buy another cheap Japanese import.
With the money left over, I think Goon could take more days off from work and go skiing instead.
Ladies and gentlemen, The Bubble has left the building. I don’t know if Rio’s bubble since 08 will stand the test of time but there’s no more land in the few “world-class”, city-central tourist and wealthy areas of this place. Look at that pic of Ipanema and you’ll see why. But we moved here to help family, not really to speculate in housing.
Real Estate Market Cools in Brazil, But Not Crashing Yet
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The real estate market in Brazil saw staggering growth in the last seven years, and coupled with a national booming economy it looked like a positive trend. However most analysts, and certainly those hoping to buy or rent, have been waiting for a housing bubble to burst and for the last year many have urged caution.
Neil Shearing of Capital Economics said, “Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil, but we take some comfort from the fact that the country’s frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing.”
“It’s still early days, but the initial signs are that Brazil’s housing bubble is deflating via a gradual moderation in prices, rather than via a sharp and sudden drop in prices that can cause steep falls in household wealth and destabilize the financial system.”
According to a report in April 2012 by Capital Economics, residential property prices in São Paulo had doubled within five years, while prices in Rio had tripled. Since then they have continued to climb with prices in São Paulo now tripled since 2008, while prices in Rio have almost quadrupled. A nation-wide price series began in mid-2010 and shows that prices at a national level have increased by seventy percent in just four years.
On the flip side two factors show merit for a substantial increase in the demand for housing. Brazilian labour data reported GDP per head has increased by sixty percent since 2008, and at the same time, the rapid development of a mortgage market has made housing finance easier and cheaper to access for millions of Brazilians.
Link to the article and pic: Because “it’s different here”
Real Estate Market Cools in Brazil, But Not Crashing Yet
http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-real-estate/brazil-housing-market-cools-but-not-crashing-yet/
…. and man-up Lola.
“We moved here to help family”
What you’ve been doing ain’t helping.
Some interesting trivia:
“China became Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009″ - Wikipedia
and …
From the above post: “Brazilian labour data reported GDP per head has increased by sixty percent since 2008.”
I’d say there is a strong connection between the two, which means if China’s economy goes south then Brazil’s economy will also take a hit.
And it looks as if China’s economy is going south.
You are too modest. Brazil is a piglet at China’s teat.
Brazil could tank and Ipanema/Copa/Zona Sul could still be relatively unaffected. It’s a very small area in a huge city in a huge country in a huge world.
Rio has a lot going on besides China trade. There were a million tourists in town the past few weeks, and most in my part of town. For all its good and bad, there is no other major city like it in the entire world. Music/Mountains/Women/Beach/Jungle/Food/Culture/Carnaval/Olympics……”It’s different here”.
Stan Stalnaker: The Top 20 Cities of 2015
http://www.psfk.com/2015/02/stan-stalnaker-hub-culture-top-20-cities-2015.html
4. Rio de Janeiro (2014 Rank: 2)
2015 offers Rio de Janeiro a chance to pause and catch its breath— coming between the highs of the 2014 World Cup and the pending 2016 Summer Olympics…..
…..Now is the chance for Rio to prep itself for its big moment next year. There are hopeful attempts to address chronic housing and accommodation shortages, corruption around infrastructure and maintenance, and to some extent, the giant wealth gap that exists between neighborhoods.
…..Anyway, Carioca beach life continues as the city rakes in revenue from all those visitors.
Just a reminder for all the war hawks and Drudge link clickers, William Kristol has a net worth of approximately two hundred million dollars
Do you think he gives half a sh*t about some 19 year old kid getting his legs blown off by an IED in Iraq?
No, he doesn’t, because he’s too busy rolling around naked in a big pile of money laughing at American taxpayers and voters
Do you think he gives half a sh*t about some 19 year old kid getting his legs blown off by an IED in Iraq ??
F^*@& NO !!!! They are just ante in his neocon parlor game…
Yes he does. He sheds crocodile tears. RESTASIS is not cheap.
Kristol is evil. But he’s amateur in comparison to Dick Cheney. Kristol to Cheney is Darth Maul to Darth Vader.
“Why would pay more than new construction cost ($55 per square foot) for a rapidly depreciating 20+ year old resale house?”
Let me guess…… Because realtors tell you that the cost of a house cannot be evaluated using math?
As long as u can service the debt there isnt a problem right?
A home loan is no different than the national debt. As long as you can pay the interest things look ok for awhile.
We should keep printing a lot of cash so asset prices rise in value instead of creating some real jobs.
Do you know what the most common job in america is? truck driver hauling chinese stuff around to walmarts.
Why pay more when you can rent for half the monthly cost?
why create a job when you can borrow some more currency?
Why work at a job when strangers will willingly commit themselves to sending you large chunks of their hard-earned money each and every month for years - for decades?
Tell ‘em they’re smart, then place before them a sheet of paper with a whole bunch of interesting words written on it and which has a dotted line at the bottom for them to sign, then hand them a ball-point pen and - presto! - they immediately become yours.
They work, you reap, and life is good.
I just did some rough calculations that bring up some interesting questions.
USA Median home price $179,000 with 15% down, average PITI = $905 per month using a mortgage calculator.
USA 2013 Median rental cost according to the ACS US Census: $905 per month.
Median Buying: $905 per month
Median Renting: $905 per month.
So what does this mean? I think it means if you can buy for what it costs to rent then that area is not experiencing much of USA’s current echo bubble. No? Was not this the criteria cited on this blog for years?
And once all the expenses are figured in, rents are half cost. You should know that by now Lola.
“USA Median home price $179,000 with 15% down, average PITI = $905 per month using a mortgage calculator.”
Your calculation is wrong, because it ignores the opportunity cost of the 15% down (typical Realtor™ mistake!).
Renting always ignores the cost of renting from age ~65-90.
And once all the expenses are figured in, rents are half cost.
Wrong Dullard. Actually median rent’s are not “half the cost” in this scenario.
Median PITI Buying: $905 per month
Median Renting: $905 per month.
So if “once all the expenses are figured in, rents are half cost” that would necessitate another $905 expense per month above the PITI. So you’re saying owning a 180K home costs an additional almost 11K per year, EVERY year to maintain and other misc things? On what planet?
And renting is probably higher because that rent figure includes tiny and crappy apartments that are not comparable to sold houses and condos imo.
This does not even include building equity, tax credits, mortgage payments not going up following rents for 30 years and home prices following the rate of inflation for 100 years. USA has a bubble in certain areas for sure but sometimes you really sound like a one-track dimwit “Housing Analyst”.
Your calculation is wrong, because it ignores the opportunity cost of the 15% down
Then my calculation is also “wrong” because it ignores building equity, tax deductions, mortgage payments not going up following rising rents for 30 years and home prices following the rate of inflation for 100 years.
Lola,
There is no “equity” when you pay 250% premiums for depreciating asset like a house.
There is no “equity” when you….
I think they borrowed your brain in Young Frankenstein.
http://www.thingsinmovies.com/wp-content/uploads/frankenstein-abnormal-brain.jpg
Math Lola math!
Black Forest, CO Sale Prices Plunge 20% YoY As Housing Bubble Pops
http://www.zillow.com/black-forest-co/home-values/
“Renting always ignores the cost of renting from age ~65-90.”
Many people lose the ability to maintain an SFR on that age range and end up renting out of no choice of their own (case in point: my own parents).
Plus owning often ignores the cost to senior citizens of paying off a mortgage.
The Debt Trap: Examining reverse mortgages
Reverse mortgages leave many homeowners with regret down the road. Jason Wheeler has the third installment of WFAA’s debt series.
Jason Wheeler, WFAA 9:09 p.m. CST February 19, 2015
Josalyn Cassatt lost her mother in 2014 following a long illness. Now, she’s about to lose the Haltom City house she thought she had inherited from her mom.
Cassatt spent the last decade living there, taking care of her ailing mother full time. After her mother died, Cassatt discovered paperwork showing the property had been reverse mortgaged in 2006.
An alarming notice soon arrived in the mailbox. “Around December first or fourth, I get a letter saying the house is going on auction Jan. 6 – foreclosed on by the reverse mortgage because she is deceased,” Cassatt said.
The news hit hard.
“It’s just like if somebody walked up to you and threw a brick at your head or something or hit you with a wrecking ball. That’s what it feels like,” she said. At 61, long unemployed and broke, Cassatt now has to find a new place to live by March 2. “I don’t have any place to go.”
…
Of course she was better off renting. It was half the monthly cost Lola.
It’s sort of unpleasant renting up to just before you die, but I know from experience the heirs have a much easier time of dividing up the proceeds. Imagine the anxiety involved in cleaning up the house where your benefactor passed away. The sorrow you go through as the place is quiet and you remember being a kid in a noisy cheerful home 30 years before. Then making sure the place is salable. I’ve done this twice.
I lost a former colleague yesterday. He was only 44. I can’t make light of the advantages of renting just before death, at least today.
I found out about this around noon. His immune system was too weak from former bouts with cancer. Had a wife and three children. Got pneumonia that took the opportunity of his weakened immune system. I knew he was in very critical condition for two or three weeks and he’s been in that situation a year ago. But returned to work. This time the damn pneumonia took him. Last night about 50 people, mostly relatives, knew he was being unplugged, so they were there to say their goodbyes. He was one of the nicest guys one would ever meet.
I’m sorry about your loss.
Thanks Rio
Hey there SH -
Having been down that path with my wife a year ago - I completely understand what you describe - been through this too with my mom two years ago this coming May - alot of loss in a short time. Like your friend - my wife was one amazing woman - just so sweet, Godly and a pure servant to others. I just wonder what God has in mind in taking the best away first - and leaving me behind!!!?
All the best - be good to yourself in the mean time.
rj
Republicans To Investigate Climate Data Tampering By NASA
2:16 PM 02/20/2015
Are government climate agencies tampering with climate data to show warming? Some Republicans think so. California Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher says to expect congressional hearings on climate data tampering.
Science blogger Steven Goddard (a pseudonym) has been a major critic of NASA’s and NOAA’s temperature measurements. Goddard points out that NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center makes the present look warmer by artificially cooling past temperatures to show a warming trend.
“NCDC pulls every trick in the book to turn the US cooling trend into warming. The raw data shows cooling since the 1920s,” Goddard told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview last month.
“NCDC does a hockey stick of adjustments to reverse the trend,” Goddard said. “This includes cooling the past for ‘time of observation bias’ infilling missing rural data with urban temperatures, and doing almost nothing to compensate for urban heat island effects.”
UK Telegraph writer Christopher Booker joined the fray recently, using work by Goddard and other bloggers to criticize climate agencies for data tampering.
“Of much more serious significance, however, is the way this wholesale manipulation of the official temperature record… has become the real elephant in the room of the greatest and most costly scare the world has known,” Booker wrote. “This really does begin to look like one of the greatest scientific scandals of all time.”
dailycaller.com/…/02/20/republicans-to-investigate-climate-data-tampering-by-nasa/ - 183k -
It fits the times. This has been a period wholesale fraud and deception, and of epoch misallocation of resources.
“In a time of universal deceipt, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” — George Orwell
Not to mention an illegal act.
Sen. Feinstein Wants to Strip Independent Journalists’ Rights
by Kevin Mathews
September 22, 2013
7:00 am
Freedom of the press may be one of the founding principles of the United States, but Senator Dianne Feinstein is on a mission to limit these powers. The fourth-term California Democrat has proposed an amendment to narrow the definition of journalism and give privileges to only those she deems “real reporters.”
Currently, most states have shield laws designed to protect journalists, but no such laws exist on a federal level. Recently, the Senate Judiciary Committee approved national shield laws, but Feinstein was unhappy with how broadly journalist could be interpreted and wrote up an amendment to address her personal concerns.
Feinstein’s suggestion is blatantly unconstitutional. The First Amendment is clear: “Congress shall make no law… abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press,” yet here is a member of Congress trying to do precisely that. By applying a strict definition to who can be considered a journalist, Feinstein is not only discrediting, but also destructing independent and citizen journalism.
…
Interesting stuff: Here’s a satellite photo of the iced-up Great lakes:
http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2015/02/21/Despite-cold-Great-Lakes-ice-recedes.html
Niagara Falls seems to be a wee bit frozen:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2015/feb/20/niagara-falls-frozen-gallery
There’s an ice dam to remember!
You gotta be up here to know what we have been dealing with since Christmas - it is one cold mother you know what - Chicago forecast for the week - Cold, and more cold with continuing cold for the foreseeable future. And where is that idiot Al Gore - last time he was here in Region V was way back in the 90’s for the democrat convention - hasn’t been here since!!!
What’s with Lake Ontario? And i hear there is a boat stuck in the middle of Erie and a Coast Guard ice breaker can’t get through 10 feet of ice - man o man.
When politicians — right or left — politicize and interfere with science, we are all in big trouble.
=============
Scientific Integrity: Let Science Do Its Job
Our civilization is built on a foundation of science. Life as we know it is the result of a remarkable series of technological advances over the past few centuries—advances largely driven by partnerships between science and government.
But science can only thrive when it’s independent. When commercial or ideological interests pressure scientists to distort or suppress their findings, science is weakened, and we all lose.
Warmists gotta warm!
Scientific Integrity: Let Science Do Its Job
Yep. They should stop falsifying data.
“They should stop falsifying data.”
But … but … but the funding? What would happen to the funding?
“Yep. They should stop falsifying data.”
Whether scientists falsified data or not is irrelevant to Congress. The purpose of Congressional “hearings” isn’t fact-finding, it’s all about creating a media circus creating fear, uncertainty and doubt to achieve a political objective.
Congress spent at least $14 million of taxpayer money on 13 hearings, producing 600000 pages of documents, on the Benghazi wild goose chase to produce what? Nothing, nothing at all. Now they are poised to publicly flail scientists and waste more taxpayer dollars on worthless hearings.
I’m sure that all those “scientists” who work for the oil companies will tell congress exactly what the oil companies want.
“Scientific Integrity: Let Science Do Its Job”
“This is a no-brainer for us. We’re positioning ourselves aggressively. We need the money to survive,” said J. Murray Gibson, dean of Northeastern’s College of Science.
In Nahant, NU eyes federal funds for climate research
By Tracy JanGlobe Staff July 08, 2014
Studying the impact of global warming on — in Washington parlance — “urban coastal sustainability” has become one of the hottest sources of federal dollars, and Northeastern officials believe its modest marine science center in Nahant can win up to $25 million a year in US research grants and boost the university’s profile in the process.
“This is a no-brainer for us. We’re positioning ourselves aggressively. We need the money to survive,” said J. Murray Gibson, dean of Northeastern’s College of Science.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/…/eFtbMxqeas4gPNtzyG9VCN/story.html -
“This is a no-brainer for us. We’re positioning ourselves aggressively. We need the money to survive,”
It sounds like something someone who cared about mankind would say if he knew the science was was totally legit and scary.
But … but … but the funding? What would happen to the funding?
Right. The science is not valid because the science requires funding.
“The science is not valid because the science requires funding.”
Whether the science is valid or not it still requires funding.
The funding is not what determines whether or not the science is valid, the funding determines whether or not money is going to be spent on doing the science. In order to get the funding there must be shown some justification for the funding, an urgency for the funding. If there was no urgency then there would be no funding or very little funding.
There is a built in incentive to produce results that will stimulate funding and a built in disincentive to produce results that would cut off funding and so there springs into being a selection process of choosing one result, of choosing one interpretation of data, over another interpretation of the same data.
“When commercial or ideological interests pressure scientists to distort or suppress their findings, science is weakened, and we all lose.”
There it is, like a frozen fish hitting you upside the head.
Exactly. Just like when the tobacco industry hired its own “scientists” to fight the idea that smoking was dangerous, now we see the fossil fuel industry using nearly identical tactics.
What about the critics who are not being paid by anyone?
What about the critics who are not being paid by anyone?
They must be independently wealthy.
“They must be independently wealthy.”
Or successfully swayed by the misinformation campaign funded by the oil companies.
I personally am not wealthy and am skeptical of propaganda from any direction.
“Republicans To Investigate Climate Data Tampering By NASA”
I bet it blows the lid off it like their Benghazi investigation!
Republicans To Investigate Climate Data Tampering By NASA
That will be a hoot! Repubs “investigating” science numbers and charts and stuff.
Impressive cast of characters there. “Dinosaur flatulence.” Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Mr. “Asbestos is good for you” Christopher Booker, and “Science blogger” Steven Goddard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Goddard
I guess we’re all “Science Bloggers now”.
In June 2014, Goddard attracted considerable media attention for his claims that NASA had manipulated temperature data ….Those who promoted the claim included Christopher Booker, in a June 21 article in the Daily Telegraph,[9] and Fox News Channel host Steve Doocy three days later in a Fox and Friends segment. The claim was dismissed by Politifact.com, which rated it as “pants on fire”–its lowest possible rating. wiki
If he is politically incorrect, it’s unpossible for him to be part of “science”.
If he is politically incorrect, it’s unpossible for him to be part of “science”.
Why? That’s not true at all. Because real science - the real deal, is apolitical. There is no politics in e=mc2. E=mc2 is not a Democrat or a Repub.
Those clowns just don’t have any real science behind them and have been consistently debunked. Most the effort to discredit the actual science is well FUNDED by industries who’s ox might be gored.
Goddard has the same undergrad science major as me. And this clown thinks he has the same regard as NASA and thousands of experienced PHD scientists properly funded to study science? The dude’s a “science blogger” with a bachelor’s degree in science. Booker thinks second hand smoke and asbestos are benign. Dana Rohrabacher is an Orange County Republican tool of his Kochesque masters.
You only believe the “funded scientists and PhDs” are correct because they have the “correct” answer. The facts they start with are thoroughly discredited, but that doesn’t seem to matter much. NOAA’s website discredits itself as far as science and logic go.
So, people like Goddard are automatically discredited because they aren’t in the right club. How about what he actually is saying?
Goddard…automatically discredited because they aren’t in the right club. How about what he actually is saying?
USA centric, effectively discredited and mostly irrelevant to GLOBAL warming.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jun/25/steve-doocy/foxs-doocy-nasa-fudged-data-make-case-global-warmi/
The funding is not what determines whether or not the science is valid, the funding determines whether or not money is going to be spent on doing the science.
Then follow the money from the Oil/Gas/Coal/Kotch machine. They’ve spent billions to discredit climate change. Most all of this money was spent on propaganda - not scientific study. Why?
Why did they not spend this money on scientific study instead of propaganda? It’s because they know that even if funding can affect the selection process of choosing one interpretation of data over another interpretation, they know that their resultant bunk “science” wouldn’t hold any chance of being believed if scientifically reviewed.
So billions are spent on spin instead of science.
You’re obsessed with Kochs Lola.
Today’s global warming in Region VIII
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150221_104126_894-9ky03CSC.jpg
And this afternoon we’re gonna start getting 2 inches an hour of global warming and it ain’t gonna stop until noon tomorrow
Forward
So far, done on the front range, the “mega bizzard” has been a colossal dud. I shoveled a whopping 2 inches of snow off my driveway this morning and there has been no accumulation since then.
Better scared than sorry!
Ventura, CA Sale Prices Evaporate YoY; Plunge 11% QoQ As Sellers Slash
http://www.zillow.com/ventura-ca/home-values/
I have driven through ventura a couple times. There are some high rollers up there. Home prices are worth every penny when you live next to a celebrity.
“In Miami, we trade condos.”
And drug-runner fantasy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtW6HW8jO_U
Obama to seek emergency order restarting immigration programs
The Obama administration will seek an emergency court order to move forward with President Obama’s executive action on immigration
by The Hill | Mike Lillis | February 21, 2015
The Obama administration will seek an emergency court order to move forward with President Obama’s executive action on immigration.
Officials at the Department of Justice (DOJ) plan to seek what is known as an emergency stay that would essentially undo a Texas-based federal judge’s injunction from earlier this week. If the stay is granted, the government could restart a pair of executive programs that will shield millions of undocumented immigrants from deportation.
White House press secretary Josh Earnest said DOJ will file for the stay by “Monday at the latest.”
The emergency stay had been sought by immigrant rights advocates, who want to get the programs up and running as soon as possible while the appeals process plays out.
That’s all he’s got. A failed presidency….hoping for any legacy to leave by. Despicable!
“Pass something! Anything! Save my Presidency!”
That’s all he’s got. A failed presidency….
And two of them!
Obama to seek emergency order restarting immigration programs
Emergency? For who? Certainly not for US citizens or legal resident aliens.
Emergency? For who? Certainly not for US citizens or legal resident aliens.
IIRC, the US Supreme Court used the excuse of an “emergency” when FDR banned private ownership of gold and invalidated certain private contracts supposedly protected by the US Constitution, back in 1933. It was another kind of ‘emergency’ used to justify robbing and imprisoning US citizens who had done no wrong other than by having Japanese ancestry (internment camps during WWII). That too was approved by the Supremes.
The president told his lawyers to go court and defend his own executive order. Is that interesting in some way?
Here Mike, this oughta keep you busy for a while.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sawN7uJ8s8s - 450k -
If MightyMike isn’t a Democratic party plant, then he does an awfully good impersonation!
Lola and Mike are street friends.
Here Mike, this oughta keep you busy for a while.
That only kept me busy for about 10 seconds. I should have bailed after 2 seconds when I saw obamatruth.org. I hung in a few more seconds to hear some ravings about the president’s wife. These people are amazing. We’ve had the slowest recovery from recession during the postwar period, miscellaneous wars and conflicts going on around the world, and Guantanamo Bay hasn’t been closed. Yet a lot of people choose to criticize Obama about teleprompters, his wife and Saul Alinsky, whoever he was. What makes these people tick? It’s just bizarre.
You deserve a raise!
We’ve had the slowest recovery from recession during the postwar period,
But not the slowest recovery from recession caused by a global financial crisis. And after USA’s industrial base and middle-class were hollowed. This was not your daddy’s recession.
This was not a common post-war, business-cycle recession. I think that’s obvious.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/02/21/what-subprime-auto-loan-bubble/
Investors, driven to near insanity by the Fed’s interest rate repression, have developed an insatiable lust for structured securities backed by subprime auto loans.
Mind you, these are not high-risk securities, as you might be misled to imagine from the name “subprime”; many of them are triple-A rated by none other than venerable Standard & Poor’s, which agreed in early February to pay $1.375 billion to settle with the Department of Justice and 19 state agencies the allegations that it “had engaged in a scheme to defraud investors in structured financial products,” namely slapping triple-A ratings on toxic Mortgage-Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt Obligations in the run-up to the Financial Crisis.
OK, today’s subprime securitization rage is in the auto-loan sector, not mortgages. About 31% of all outstanding auto loan balances are rated subprime. They’re the foundation of booming auto sales. There is a lot to securitize. It’s so hot that private-equity firms are all over it. And IPOs are flying off the shelf.
“Investors, driven to near insanity by the Fed’s interest rate repression, have developed an insatiable lust for structured securities backed by subprime auto loans.”
Can’t wait for these instruments to blow up again as their subprime mortgage backed security equivalents did starting in December 2006. Can free entertainment get any better?
Mortgage lending
Subprime subsidence
Parts of America’s mortgage market are in turmoil. Some on Wall Street see this as an opportunity. Others are biting their nails
Dec 13th 2006 | new york
MORTGAGE lending is hardly the raciest business, but it has its moments. “It’s a bit like the definition of combat: 59 minutes of boredom followed by a minute of sheer terror,” says Michael Youngblood, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, an investment bank. “And we seem to be going through another one of those minutes now.”
What has set pulses racing is subprime lending—mortgages extended at higher than normal rates to those with weak credit histories. In America, where it is most advanced, this market is under a lot of strain, and so, by extension, is the giant asset-backed securities market that is linked to it. The market for prime mortgages (those extended to higher-quality borrowers) is faring better, though it, too, is showing signs of weakness, exacerbated by cooling house prices. Might these troubles, some wonder, be the canary in the mine, warning of a looming credit crunch as investors, for years free with their money, recoil from risk?
Once a backwater, subprime is now very much in the mainstream. Annual loan originations grew fivefold between 2001 and 2005, to $625 billion, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter.
But with rapid growth has come fragility. According to UBS, the rate of subprime-loan delinquencies of 60 days or more stood at around 8% in October, nearly double the rate of a year before. Foreclosures are also around twice as high as they were. Worse, loans are decaying remarkably quickly: the number of borrowers falling behind on payments in the first few months has leapt, to around 4% of the total. This has taken some analysts by surprise. But Anthony Sanders, finance professor at Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business, thinks they should have seen it coming: “With the traditional mortgage market flat, the growth has been in the one area nobody wanted to go into.”
This is already producing casualties. A number of mid-sized mortgage firms have failed in recent weeks. The latest, on December 7th, was Ownit Mortgage Solutions, the 17th-largest subprime lender. Others—such as H&R Block’s Option One Mortgage—are for sale, their owners keen to leave the business. Earlier this month, in another bad sign, KeyCorp sold its subprime arm, Champion, for an undisclosed sum thought to be well below the $200m-250m tag analysts had put on it.
These troubles did not come out of the blue. Their origins lie in 2004, when some of the big subprime lenders began to compete hard for market share. By late 2005, this battle had pushed rates for ropy borrowers down to a little over 7%. This led to a boom in new business as thousands scrambled onto the housing ladder.
But the Federal Reserve had already started raising short-term interest rates, flattening the yield curve, the difference between short and long rates. (Since banks borrow short and lend long, their margins are higher when the curve is steep.) When this began eating into lenders’ profits, they reacted by pushing subprime rates back up. This time, though, they could not attract the same quality of borrower as before: with the housing market looking vulnerable, only the desperate were willing to borrow at interest rates of over 8%.
The lenders compounded their problems greatly by loosening their underwriting standards in a further attempt to keep business chugging along. Sometimes these were waived altogether. Adding insult to imprudence, they lured borrowers with “alternative” mortgage products, such as “negative amortisation” deals (where payments are so low that the overall debt gets bigger, not smaller) and adjustable-rate products (where teaser rates jump after a couple of years). Mark DiRienz of Moody’s, a rating agency, says the “payment shock” was made worse by rules that allowed lenders to go from a low introductory rate straight to one much higher than the prevailing rate.
New subprime lending has tailed off this year as mortgage firms have, belatedly, become fussier about whom they will serve. They say they will plough more resources into vetting applications but, as Mr Youngblood points out, this would raise their costs. There is no easy way out.
Moody’s and other debt-raters have cast a worried eye over the market, placing subprime deals on watch for a possible downgrade. Regulators are also twitchy. They have stepped up warnings about slack lending standards.
Nerves are also jangling in the capital markets. These days large numbers of housing loans are moved off banks’ books, bundled together as so-called mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and sold to investors. In theory, this helps the banks to reduce risk, makes money for intermediaries who trade the securities, and allows the investors to pick tranches of debt that match their risk appetite. Thanks to financial alchemy, an MBS made up of low-quality loans can still enjoy a good credit rating.
If too many of the home loans backing the security are toxic, however, investors will feel pain. That is happening now. The ABX Home Equity 06-2 index, whose price reflects the market’s view of bonds rated BBB-minus backed by subprime loans made earlier this year, has fallen sharply since mid-November (see chart). Hedge funds and others have been using derivatives to short bonds backed by subprime mortgages.
Dubious mortgages are now a growing share of the mortgage-backed market, so there is scope for more trouble. Of the $1.02 trillion of MBSs issued in the first half of this year, over 40% was linked to subprime loans, up from 6-8% in 2000-03, says CreditSights, a research boutique.
…
Interesting article how robots are beginning to displace skilled computer programmers and ultimately other professions as well, which will lower incomes and — connect the dots — demand for housing.
=========
Watch out, coders — a robot may take your job, too
Prepare yourself for “do you want fries with that?”
…we’re talking huge numbers of people who will be affected [by robotics]: Last year, there were 670,800 jobs for software applications developers, plus an additional 387,400 for in systems software. Tech employment as a whole was about 6.5 million, according to U.S. Labor Department statistics cited in the CompTIA report.
Naturally, wages will drop, and some high-tech workers will get pushed into other jobs, particularly in the service sector. Former coders won’t make $100,000 teaching math, slinging hamburgers, or driving for Uber. The influx of smart new employees will push wages down even further.
Aside from the personal misery of people living on reduced incomes, the entire economy will suffer as people have less money to spend, which reduces the demand for goods and services. Less demand means less capital accumulates, so investment that would have funded the next boom stagnates — which is what the researchers mean when they say “when smart machines replace people, they eventually bite the hands of those that finance them.”
One possible remedy is a tax (really, a forced rainy-day savings) on workers who benefit from a technological breakthrough during a boom. That money could be set aside and used to pay a stipend during a bust, keeping them afloat and ensuring a steady supply of capital.
“Absent appropriate fiscal policy that redistributes from winners to losers, smart machines can mean long-term misery for all,” the authors conclude.
http://www.infoworld.com/article/2885973/application-development/watch-out-coders-a-robot-may-take-your-job-too.html
===
HBB’ers will likely disagree with the redistribution stuff, but the key takeaway is robotic displacement and the accompanying underemployment. That’s already decimated the blue collar class and it’s coming to the six-figure professional class…
Eisenhower asks a computer: “Is there a God?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf222ok1YTo
a job is a privilege not a right! u have to make something happen.
Get an idea and patent it, then manufacture and sell it.
Have you guys noticed the hideous retail markups lately?
I went into arco to pay for some gas the other day and they had hostess donut small 6 packs for 1.99. I can get those for 50 cents else where. so if someone can sell them for 50 cents they must have paid 25 cents.
25 cents to 2 bucks is like a 700% markup
Yeah, I haven’t bought much from Amazon, but if you look around, they are selling stuff for much less than brick and mortar retail. What do you suppose the mark-up is for 40 ounces of sugar water?
Before or after you factor in the likely long-term costs of medical treatment for diabetes or other health problems linked to sugar consumption?
Have you guys noticed the hideous retail markups lately?
That has always been typical of convenience stores, and not just lately. You want the convenience, you pay dearly for it, bub.
Interesting article how robots are beginning to displace skilled computer programmers
They have been predicting this for 30 years. But here is the real question: Can an AI write code without a precise spec, the way flesh and blood coders can?
I scanned through that quickly, but I only found one actual example:
“Take Junior, the reigning World Computer Chess Champion. Junior can beat every current and, possibly, every future human on the planet. Consequently, his old code has largely put new chess programmers out of business,” say the researchers.
I’m not sure that that makes any sense. How can they be certain that it’s impossible to write chess software that can beat Junior?
However, much more importantly, that type of programming is extremely unusual. Show me an example of a “robot” that can develop device drivers or a website for a bank.
Show me an example of a “robot” that will scrape the snow & ice off my driveway.
Wasn’t science settled on this?
Cholesterol is back on the menu in new federal dietary guidelines
Other cardiologists agree it’s time to stop telling people to limit cholesterol from food.
“It’s the right decision,” said Steven Nissen, chairman of cardiovascular medicine at the famed Cleveland Clinic. “We got the dietary guidelines wrong. They’ve been wrong for decades.”
He noted that only 20% of a person’s blood cholesterol — the levels measured with standard cholesterol tests — comes from diet. The rest comes from genes, he said.
“We told people not to eat eggs. It was never based on good science,” Nissen said.
More FB tales of woe from Detroit. We taxpayers simply must intervene to help these poor victims and their bankers.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/2/21/detroit-homeowners-face-new-wave-of-foreclosures.html
ISIS’ 7-FOOT ARMY? Experts say video of beheadings was manipulated
February 20, 2015
Experts who examined the sickening footage of ISIS militants killing Christians in Libya say the tape was doctored with. In the above still, the killers appear to be more than 7 feet tall.
Video of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians being marched along a Libyan beach before being beheaded by black-clad members of ISIS is hard for any civilized person to watch, but experts who made it through the sickening, five-minute clip told FoxNews.com Friday they came to the same conclusion: The footage was faked.
No one holds out hope the victims, mostly poor fishermen who had gone to Libya to scratch out a living, are still alive. But several anomalies in the video, which was posted online Feb. 15, indicated to trained eyes that at least some of the production was done on “green screen” with background added later, perhaps to disguise the real location of the atrocity. A day after the clip went viral, Egyptian warplanes struck hard at an eastern port city near Tripoli, where the video appeared to have been shot.
“The Islamic State’s manipulation of their high-production videos has become commonplace,” said Veryan Khan, editorial director of the Florida-based Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium. The murders likely took place in a studio, and the background image shown was likely from another location, the Bay in Sirte, a part of the Mediterranean Sea on the northern coast of Libya, according to Khan. There are several technical mistakes in the video that show it was manipulated, she said.
“The shot that seems really tampered with is the one with the really tall Jihadists and the dwarf Christians.”
- Mary Lambert, horror film director
The most obvious, Khan said, is the speaker, “Jihad Joseph” is much larger than the sea in both the close up and wide shots, and his head is bizarrely out of proportion, meaning he was filmed indoors and the sea added behind him, Khan said. In addition, the jihadists featured in the film look to be more than 7 feet tall, towering as much as two feet above their victims.
The perspective is something several Saudi Arabians noted in their tweets about the video, questioning whether the jihadists were a part of some sort of special forces unit since they were so large.
Hollywood horror film director Mary Lambert, who among her many film credits directed Pet Cemetery, analyzed the film for FoxNews.com and quickly concluded Khan was correct.
irasciblemusings.com/…/ - 29k - Cached - Similar pages
14 hours ago .
War on terra cost $1.6 trillion so far yo
How much this ISIS gonna cost?
Forward
If they’re paying those 7 foot soldiers like NBA centers it’s gonna cost a lot.
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-21 10:45:29
ISIS’ 7-FOOT ARMY? Experts say video of beheadings was manipulated
irasciblemusings.com/isis-7-foot-army-experts-say-video-of-beheadings-was-manipulated/
Cool, now on to the fake moon landings.
Giuliani is a neo-con douchebag, but he actually says out loud what some may wonder but few will “go there.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/giuliani-claims-obama-influenced-communism-article-1.2123541
It’s more incoherent nonsense. He’s worried about the people that the president knew when he was a kid. I guess that there’s nothing else to be worried about - the economy’s wonderful and we’re at peace with the entire world. Giuliani is another guy who probably doesn’t know the meaning of the word socialism.
“the economy’s wonderful and we’re at peace with the entire world.”
+
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
http://www.usdebtclock.org/ - 116k -
In the words of Whitesnake, Here we go again on our own, going down the only road we’ve ever known….
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/20/pentagon-doubts-its-own-isis-war-plan.html
And let’s not forget, it’s for the children.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-21/think-isis-children
I takes care of my kee-uuds.
How many slots behind climate change do unemployed ISIS terrorists come on the greatest threats to future generations list?
“No challenge – no challenge – poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change,” Obama said in his sixth State of the Union address Tuesday night.“
Forward
Relax. Violent extremism is being handled.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-state-department-appeals-to-social-media-for-help-in-countering-terrorism-10061397.html
“US State Department appeals to social media for help in countering terrorism”
In other news…
Three girls from one British school fly off to join ISIS as police face questions over how they were able to board Turkey flight
Understood they were lured via social media by school friend who is there
Girls - aged 15 and 16 - boarded flight from Gatwick Airport to Istanbul
They all go to same London school and are described as ’straight-A pupils’
Now believed to be travelling overland to Syria to marry jihadi fighters
Growing calls to tighten security checks on youngsters flying out of UK
By Richard Spillett for MailOnline and Rebecca Camber and Ian Drury for the Daily Mail
Published: 08:40 EST, 20 February 2015 | Updated: 09:01 EST, 21 February 2015
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2961639/Fears-grow-three-teenage-schoolgirls-thought-fled-join-ISIS.html#ixzz3SQhG6JLF
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Kagan + Nuland: Liberal Interventionists
Kagan and Nuland advocate U.S. activism and intervention throughout the world
by Michael S. Rozeff | LewRockwell.com | February 21, 2015
http://www.infowars.com/kagan-nuland-liberal-interventionists/ - 105k - Cached - Similar pages
3 hours ago .
Ashland, OR Sale Prices Crater 14% YoY As Defaults Balloon
http://www.zillow.com/ashland-or-97520/home-values/
A tale of joy this morning in Vegas.
My husband just spoke to our next door neighbor, a nice little 85 year old lady. She was very excited. She said a house up the street just sold for $300K and she’s decided to sell hers for that amount, too! She also said the area’s been “on fire” for the last month. (This was briefly true a few months ago, but estimates have been dropping for at least two months.)
The house, listed in November, has an aforementioned asking price that is at least $80-120K over most estimates and recent comps. I’m think she’s misinterpreted a postcard we all got advertising the listing. If she’s right, idiots are moving in at the end of the block.
The good part is that we are month to month (though we pay dearly to keep our options open, the rent is high.) If crazies move in next door, we’re gone.
Always good to have an escape plan.
All the money printing and bailouts by central banks should result in large inflation. Wealthy people are betting on this, and that is why home prices in high end zip codes throughout SoCal have hit all time highs … the wealthy are dumping cash into real estate because they want to make money from inflation. Unfortunately, most can not afford high end real estate. It is possible that middle class real estate will not do well in inflation. For those that can’t afford high end real estate, how will you protect yourself from inflation?
Remember….. falling prices of all items is positively bullish and good for the ecomony.
Let the deflationary spiral rage.
“the wealthy are dumping cash into real estate because they want to make money from inflation.”
In the late 20s the wealthy dumped a lot of their money into stocks because they wanted to make money from inflation.
The wealthy is not always synonymous with wisdom. There are greater fools among them.
Greed does not give mercy to any class in the end.
BarackHussein Obama
Chairlift 8 at Loveland always smells like weed smoke coming out of the trees
“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest” - Kim Jong Un
Any similarity here, LOLZ
If you like your crony capitalism, you can keep your crony capitalism. HillaryJebWalker in ‘16!
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/02/20/hilary-clinton-exposed-part-1-how-she-aggressively-lobbied-for-mega-corporations-as-secretary-of-state/
+1
AAADRIIAANNN!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1yzIeBRh5o - 384k -
I disagree with her implication that gold does well when interest rates are low. What’s happening is the central banks are buying up gold before they jack up the interest rates.
Gold has no credit risk. The fiat currencies do. So central banks buy up gold. And when you buy gold you do not buy another man’s debt.
http://tinyurl.com/llhb7ds
Region IV