Homeowners Have Decided: ‘Let’s Get Out’
The Fresno Bee reports from California. “Madera County is swimming in a nine-month supply of homes for sale, a jump from only five months at the end of last year, according to the California Association of Realtors. Home sales in the central San Joaquin Valley fell in January helping to replenish the housing inventory which tightened in recent years as homeowners waited for prices to rise. But it looks like homeowners — at least in Madera County — have decided its time to make a move. ‘One quarter we have nothing to sell and the next quarter we have a lot to sell,’ said Junia Painter, president of the Madera Association Realtors.”
The Arizona Republic. “New home sales and building across metro Phoenix fell back to a slower pace in January after December’s year-end surge. Last month, new home sales dropped to 620 from 1,006 in December, according to RL Brown Housing Reports. Home building permits declined to 799 from 977. Deals offered by builders trying to sell houses before the end of 2014 worked to draw more buyers in December, but the trend didn’t continue in January.”
The Standard Times in Texas. “Because rents were so high in 2014, sales of houses less than $200,000 were going strong. At the same time, said Max Puello, president of the San Angelo Association of Realtors, many investors saw the demand for housing and decided to buy properties to rent out. ‘There was a lot of pressure on under $200,000 homes,’ he said. ‘There were a lot of investors and homebuyers.’”
“The inventory of high-end homes over 2014, by contrast, seemed to stay on the market for longer, Puello said. ‘It’s like two separate markets,’ said Scott Allison, a San Angelo Realtor and broker. It was a seller’s market for houses below the $200,000 range, Allison said, whereas there are years of supply in high-end houses.”
The Billings Gazette on Wyoming. “A steep decline in oil prices has forced companies to stack rigs and curb their spending on new production. North Dakota’s rig count stood at 127 on Thursday, down from 189 a year ago, according to state information. ‘Moving forward, it’s OK to slow down and take a breath,’ said Wenko, who addressed a Billings energy forum. ‘Some say we’ve gone from insanity to just a little bit crazy.’ Wenko said oil service companies operating in the Bakken are trying to get lean and mean in response to lower prices. However, the local job service agency continues to report many openings. People searching for housing have more choices, and some landlords are discounting their rents.”
The Globe & Mail in Canada. “Although the National Association of Realtors (NAR) doesn’t have statistics about Canadians selling U.S. properties, some real estate agents south of the border have noticed an uptick in Canadian clients eager to sell. ‘Oh my gosh yes, I’m doing a lot of listings,’ says Diane Olson, a Canadian-born real estate agent who specializes in snowbird properties in Phoenix. ‘And a lot of them are making money.’”
“Ken O’Brian, a real estate agent based in Naples, Fla., says that while some of his Canadian clients are selling their properties, most are holding because they feel the market will get even stronger in future. ‘The projections we are hearing say that prices will be back to 2006 levels by 2019, 2020, so they are going to wait for a better time,’ he says.”
“‘Is it a good time to sell? If you are in upgrade mode and you have something on your radar, there is strong demand down there,’ says Don R. Campbell, senior analyst at the Vancouver-based Real Estate Investment Network and co-author of Buying U.S. Real Estate: The Proven and Reliable Guide for Canadians. ‘The economy for the country as a whole down south seems to be catching a bit more fire than it has in the past, and that means that you won’t be selling just to investors or snowbirds, also to locals. But it will be even hotter next year from a market point of view.’”
“On the other hand, says Mr. Campbell, some snowbirds may be feeling relieved after buying property a few years ago and then realizing that U.S. home ownership isn’t for them. ‘A lot of people did get caught up in the dream and now reality starts to kick in – maintenance and tax rates and Home Owners Associations,’ he says. ‘Some people are saying, ‘Thank goodness prices are up, I feel guilty whenever I go anywhere else except this property. Let’s get out.’”
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “This could be one of the best times ever to buy a house in South Jersey. There’s plenty of supply to feed any demand in this buyer’s market — although many local owners are either underwater on their mortgages or in foreclosure. Matt Dice, of Shore Living Realty in Ocean City, suggests that this combination of factors ‘has created a space in time that may never be seen again.’”
“Many buyers have been advised to avoid the potential headaches of short sales, but to Dice, those who are flexible on time — and can find homes that have been through part of the process — can get great deals. He was in on a short sale last month in which a home sold for 50 percent of what it last sold for in 2008.”
‘Mortgage giant Fannie Mae reported net income of $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter. That’s down sharply from $6.5 billion a year earlier due largely to losses on investments used to hedge against swings in interest rates.’
‘On Thursday, Freddie posted net income of $227 million for the fourth quarter. That was down sharply from the same period of 2013, as the company sustained losses on the investments it uses to hedge against swings in interest rates. Freddie also said it will pay a dividend of $900 million to the government in March.’
‘Fannie Mae reported net income of $14.2 billion for all of 2014, down steeply from $84 billion in 2013.’
‘Fannie’s losses on derivatives reached about $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter and around $4.8 billion in 2014.’
Sorry AP, this derivative loss doesn’t explain what’s collapsed here, even though you attribute it to the derivatives at least 3 times. There was a reason we called it Fanron.
‘Should we be concerned that Orange County’s median home price has fallen 6.25 percent since its recent cyclical peak in June?’
‘Combine that price drop with slower home sales – the annualized buying pace is at a 27-month low – and you could get an anxious feeling in your gut. Is the real estate rebound out of gas?’
‘Remember last year’s prime home shopping season? From January to June, the median selling price rose 9.1 percent – nearly double the historical norm. It was also the fifth-largest gain in that period since 1988.’
‘Curiously, the top two January-to-June gains were in 2013 (up 18.5 percent) and 2012 (up 15.6 percent). I’m not sure what is going on, but it’s clear that Orange County’s housing market has gotten off to extremely fast starts for three consecutive years.’
‘Those fast starts likely gave local house sellers the wrong impression that shoppers would continue to pay up for local housing in the second half of the year. Clearly, recent pricing and sales weakness suggests that house hunters voted with their wallets and stayed home.’
‘Should we be concerned’
No no, just do like the rest of the media and walk into this thing blind as a bat. Funny how they can never miss a chance to talk about how high prices flew, comparing it to this or that. Oh, and isn’t this yet another record? The dozen-teenth straight record?
It’s houses you dumbbells. Houses aren’t supposed to go up 15, then 18, then 9 percent. What you got here is a bubble. And don’t worry your entitled heads one bit.
housing prices lagged inflation till 1950’s when gov decided homes were good for you.
Actually the “decision” has much deeper roots than the 1950s…try the 1920s.
The post WW2 G.I. Bill was a big factor too, bought a house w/ a VA guaranteed loan myself in the ’90’s
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G.I._Bill
“…..a short sale last month in which a home sold for 50 percent of what it last sold for in 2008.”
Seven years and counting. It always amazes me that it will take a decade to fully clean up the excesses of 2002-2008. It was the Toad’s Wild Ride!
One decade ain’t gonna cut it, thanks to the extend-and-pretend measures to bring on an Echo Bubble, which is just now beginning to hiss air.
My hunch is that it will take at least another decsde from today for the Echo Bubble to wind down.
Now we’ve got the mega fraud years of 2009 - 2014 to sort through.
Nice try Jingle_Fraud.
We still have all the suckers like you to clean out.
Slumping Oil Prices Hit Calgary Housing
Low oil prices spark concern about health of bank growth prospects
http://www.wsj.com/articles/slumping-oil-prices-hit-calgary-housing-1424650029
Calgary, Canada’s fourth-biggest city, with 1.2 million people, is starting to feel the impact of the oil-price collapse.
Many companies, including some of the region’s largest employers, have slashed budgets, cut wages and frozen hiring, and some have started to announce layoffs. Those jitters are starting to affect the housing market there.
“There’s a lot of people downtown with job uncertainty,” said Glenn Herring, a real-estate agent in Calgary. “They’re certainly not thinking about making a move.”
In just two years, an oil-fed real-estate boom had changed the face of Canada’s energy capital. As demand for downtown housing surged, property developers snapped up more of the city’s ubiquitous bungalows built for a mushrooming postwar middle class, demolishing them and building luxury homes priced at between 700,000 and 1 million Canadian dollars (US$558,530 to US$797,900) in their stead.
But demand for these so-called inner-city infills is starting to fray, sparking concerns about the health of a financial system that has supported the booming oil economy.
ower oil prices and interest rates are casting a pall on the earnings-growth prospects of Canada’s biggest banks and fueling short selling of their stocks, a trend analysts have dubbed “the Great White Short.”
Calgary’s total home sales fell 39% on the year in January to the lowest level in five years, while new listings shot up by 37%, the Calgary Real Estate Board said. Average prices fell only 0.5% on the year in January, but that may change as the inventory of unsold homes on the market more than doubled.
Once a rich vein for developers, inner-city infills are sitting unsold
“But demand for these so-called inner-city infills is starting to fray, sparking concerns about the health of a financial system that has supported the booming oil economy.”
Now there’s an interesting statement, a statement that implies that it’s the financial system that supports the booming oil economy rather than the other way around.
a statement that implies that it’s the financial system that supports the booming oil economy rather than the other way around
Maybe because capital has totally taken over our failing brand of “capitalism”. It seems that when capital is the only King, all it wants to do, or all it can do is blow up one asset bubble after another and leave millions of people financially destroyed.
It’s like an out of control monster that just wants to replicate itself at any cost.
“This is not our daddy’s capitalism.”
BTW, I’m out of my oil position (last Wed stops got hit), eeked out a 2.5% gain. I am buying back in 1/4 of the share count today if my bid is hit.
How does $10 crude sound?
Fabulous, I can only hope it goes that low.
I’d like to somehow short Canada.
“Although the National Association of Realtors (NAR) doesn’t have statistics about Canadians selling U.S. properties, some real estate agents south of the border have noticed an uptick in Canadian clients eager to sell. ‘Oh my gosh yes, I’m doing a lot of listings,’ says Diane Olson, a Canadian-born real estate agent who specializes in snowbird properties in Phoenix. ‘And a lot of them are making money.’”
Seems like the time for Canadian investors to sell was last year, before oil prices cratered.
‘Deals offered by builders trying to sell houses before the end of 2014 worked to draw more buyers in December, but the trend didn’t continue in January’
So the builder discounts (10-20% we’ve read) are losing steam after a couple months. As we’ve also read, the big institutional investors are shopping their shacks around Phoenix. But sure, Mr Alberta speculator, we’ll take that off your hands after you “won” the bidding war, and take out a big loan to do it! Oh, and don’t think we’ve forgotten all these book-writing Canadians bragging about using their houses back home to HELOC and get 100% leverage. Gosh, those HOA fees are a bit high. The taxes. ‘We’re tired of staying in the same place.’ And you lost your high-paying job?
I’m tempted to think people might see you are way over a barrel and give you the Joshua Tree treatment.
“I’m tempted to think people might see you are way over a barrel and give you the Joshua Tree treatment.”
Would it be legal for states like AZ and CA to tax foreign absentee landlords at a higher rate than state residents?
If so, what is stopping state governments from collecting more taxes from wealthy though absent foreign real estate owners? Wouldn’t it make sense to give residents a relative break on real estate taxes, given they are the voters who put their state politicians in office?
The residents are already getting a break. The absent are paying for services they don’t use.
‘Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has a few fences to mend. That’s because the normally chummy relationship the U.S. central bank she runs has with Wall Street hit a bump last week when minutes from the Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting left room for confusion about the Fed ’s path forward. Where the market thought the FOMC was getting confident enough in the economy to move forward with a steady stream of small interest rate increases, the minutes indicated a jittery bunch of central bankers.’
‘They worried at the January meeting that it might be too soon to start raising rates, fretted over upsetting the market by removing the word “patient” from the post-meeting communique and generally conveyed an air of hesitation over how to unwind the Fed’s mammoth balance sheet.’
‘If the first rate increase does get pushed back, investors are unlikely to get upset. After all, it’s been the Fed’s largess through monthly asset purchases-discontinued in October-and zero interest rates-in place for more than six years-that have helped propel stocks to a more than 200 percent gain since the March 2009 lows. What the market does want, though, is some sense of certainty.’
I remember when the Fed didn’t release details of its actions until months afterward.
They worried at the January meeting that it might be too soon to start raising rates
It’s always going to be “too soon to raise rates”. Unless a series of domino like sovereign debt defaults around the world are acceptable.
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “This could be one of the best times ever to buy a house in South Jersey. There’s plenty of supply to feed any demand in this buyer’s market — although many local owners are either underwater on their mortgages or in foreclosure. Matt Dice, of Shore Living Realty in Ocean City, suggests that this combination of factors ‘has created a space in time that may never be seen again.’”
BUY THE F*CHEN DIP!
“Many buyers have been advised to avoid the potential headaches of short sales, but to Dice, those who are flexible on time — and can find homes that have been through part of the process — can get great deals. He was in on a short sale last month in which a home sold for 50 percent of what it last sold for in 2008.”
Those are 1999 prices then. Wonder if the property taxes will go back to what they were in 1999…?
nope -lots of gov pensions to pay
in my county 100% of the last tax increase went to gov raises
You need to move to another county.
Got TABOR?
Another one bites the dust.
‘Across the U.S. Midwest, the plunge in grain prices to near four-year lows is pitting landowners determined to sustain rental incomes against farmer tenants worried about making rent payments because their revenues are squeezed.’
‘Some grain farmers already see the burden as too big. They are taking an extreme step, one not widely seen since the 1980s: breaching lease contracts, reducing how much land they will sow this spring and risking years-long legal battles with landlords.’
‘The tensions add to other signs the agricultural boom that the U.S. grain farming sector has enjoyed for a decade is over. The stakes are high because huge swaths of agricultural land are leased: As of 2012, in the majority of counties in the Midwest Corn Belt and the grain-growing Plains, at least 40 percent of farmland was leased or rented out, USDA data shows.’
“It’s hard to know where the bottom is on this,” said David Miller, Iowa Farm Bureau’s director of research and commodity services.’
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/23/us-usa-grains-rents-insight-idUSKBN0LR0EX20150223
‘The tensions add to other signs the agricultural boom that the U.S. grain farming sector has enjoyed for a decade is over. The stakes are high because huge swaths of agricultural land are leased: As of 2012, in the majority of counties in the Midwest Corn Belt and the grain-growing Plains, at least 40 percent of farmland was leased or rented out, USDA data shows.’
Will production drop if farmers can’t afford to lease the land they need to grow their crops?
Long term lease based on short term profit estimates. What could possibly go wrong.
Reduced planting will further depress oil consumption. Now would be excellent timing to end the EtOh mandate.
.“Now would be excellent timing to end the EtOh mandate.”
The Corporate AG-Automaker-Govcorp Partnership to accelerate planned obsolescence and destruction of every vehicle on the road hasn’t come to completion yet.
Update: Crude Blows A Hole Through The $50 Floor
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Is the bottom more likely to be $20, $10 or neither?
Considering the Mid-East is profitable at $5 to $6 a barrel, bottom is a long way down. Just like housing.
Considering the Mid-East is profitable at $5 to $6 a barrel
Wrong as I showed yesterday: (Yesterday you made a mistake. But today are you just lying? You responded to the data yesterday refuting the above claim. So now it seems you are just spreading lies. Why?)
Taken from my yesterdays post you responded to:
….$6 a barrel is only close to the “lifting cost” of the oil and only in Saudi Arabia not the entire Mid-East. There is also the “finding cost” in the total upstream costs of oil production.
Saudi Arabia’s breakeven upstream costs of about $10 a barrel is the Mid-East’s cheapest, however they only supply about 13% of the world’s oil. The “Mid-East” as a whole including Saudi Arabia’s cost of production estimate is currently in the low to mid $20’s (up from about $17 in 2008) while producing about 30% of the world’s oil. 70% of the world’s oil’s cost of production is substantially higher.
Thus, your statement “the Mid East is profitable at $6/barrel” is totally wrong, bogus and applies to nothing in the reality of the global oil market.
Once the geology and field development costs are paid for, it’s all profit.
Right. FYI, the “finding costs” of oil (the costs of exploring for and developing reserves of oil and gas and the costs to purchase properties or acquire leases that might contain oil and gas reserves) globally average much higher than the “lifting costs”. (the costs to operate and maintain oil and gas wells and related equipment and facilities to bring oil and gas to the surface)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102326971
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production
http://www.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-cost-of-production-2014-5
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=367&t=6
Stick with the data Lola.
‘Once the geology and field development costs are paid for, it’s all profit’
Have you ever heard of dumping? Like when Japan sold TV’s below “cost” to gain market share. They actually were selling based on variable cost. Once the fixed cost had been covered by domestic purchases, they were free to lower prices. Given that the Saudi’s covered their fixed costs decades ago, who can say how low they can go?
As the global construction activity winds down so will oil demand in a negative feedback spiral. It will feel like they are dumping if all they do is hold steady, which is what they say they are going to do.
Given that the Saudi’s covered their fixed costs decades ago, who can say how low they can go?
They can dump but dumping to crash the oil market is not in their interest. And the Saudi’s only control 13% of the world oil market - the Mid-East 30%. 70% of the world’s oil comes at a much higher price. USA gets most its imported oil from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela - 3 times more than from Saudi Arabia because it’s cheaper to ship from closer locations.
And this is not the 1970’s. Right now we’ve got rigs coming off-line so fast in so many places that supply will be noticeably curtailed within a couple months imo.
IMO, there’s a good chance this oil bust will have stabilized by mid-summer.
They’re crashing prices deliberately Lola and prices are falling.
Remember….Falling prices of all items is positively bullish and good for the economy.
They’re crashing prices deliberately Lola and prices are falling.
They could be in the short term to squeeze Iran and the shale producers. But in the longer run, their actions are already closing down rigs around the world. They are playing a fine-line game especially with Iran. If they squeeze too hard it could more destabilize the region and the world - which is what I mean by “not in their interest”. The Sauds don’t want to drive the world into a depression.
Think longer term than 6 months.
Falling prices is nothing to be afraid of Lola. Cheer up.
Probably the biggest gaping hole in this line of thinking is that the Saudis haven’t “done” anything. Something elsewhere happened and it is that something that is crushing Brazil.
That’s right.
“Brazil: An Ocean Of Losses”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2901086-brazil-an-ocean-of-losses-swimming-naked-when-the-tide-went-out
the Saudis haven’t “done” anything.
You have Brazil on your brain and you are wrong. The Saudis have done a lot. And it might be tied to getting Iran to sign the nuke deal to have sanctions released. But I doubt it. I’m reading more about this situation every day.
Why Would the Saudis Deliberately Crash the Oil Markets?
Simple: to undermine Tehran
http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/18/why-would-the-saudis-crash-oil-markets-iran/
…the Saudis are still more than capable of crashing the oil markets — and willing to do so. In September 2014, they did just that, boosting oil production by half a percent (to 9.6 million barrels per day) in markets already brimming with cheap crude and, a few days later, offering increased discounts to major Asian customers; global prices quickly fell nearly 30 percent….
….The Saudis understood, too, that the best time to crash the markets would be when prices were already soft and consumer demand low. In early December, just a few months after Saudi Arabia unleashed its latest oil flood, Obaid wrote in a Reuters article that his government’s decision to depress prices is “going to have a huge effect on the political situation in the Middle East. Iran will come under unprecedented economic and financial pressure as it tries to sustain an economy already battered by international sanctions.” Around the same time, the Saudis were no doubt pleased to see bread prices shoot up by 30 percent in Tehran. (Bread is a staple of the Iranian diet, and its prices are a bellwether for the economy.)
On Dec. 10, the Saudi oil minister said his country would keep pumping 9.7 million barrels per day into the global markets, regardless of demand. For their part, the Iranians have shown alarm, if not yet panic. Without naming names — he didn’t have to — President Hassan Rouhani decried the “treacherous” actions of a major oil producer whose “politically motivated” behavior was evidence of “a conspiracy against the interests of the region…. Iran and the people of the region will not forget such conspiracies.” The previous day, Vice President Eshag Jahangiri had described the rapid plunge in oil prices as a “political plot … not a result of supply and demand.”
Riyadh’s real hope, if history is any indicator, is that escalated production will force Rouhani’s government to implement an austerity budget that will ultimately stoke underlying social unrest and once again push people into the streets.
Oil rigs dropping like flies.
US oil rig count falls to lowest since July 2011
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-february-20-2015-2#ixzz3SbHpjs8g
The number of oil rigs in use is now down to 1,019, the lowest since July 2011. Compared to last year, the number of oil rigs in use is down 406.
The number of combined oil and gas rigs in use is now at 1,250, the lowest since January 2010 and down 461 from a year ago.
Since hitting a peak of 1,609 in October 2014, the number of US oil rigs in use is down about 37%. By state, the biggest number of rigs shutting down last week came from Texas and Oklahoma, which saw 22 and 16 rigs shut down, respectively.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-february-20-2015-2#ixzz3SbHWQ1gv
With a globe awash in oil, demand cratering and prices plunging, why pump more Lola?
clueless as usual
With a globe awash in oil, demand cratering and prices plunging, why pump more Lola?
I agree. It’s called capitalism and eventually self-correcting to the right level albeit with geopolitical and some financialization aspects affecting prices.
Prices are going lower because we pumped so much because the prices got high enough to pump more.
clueless as usual
You’re clueless. The lower prices are bringing capacity offline faster than any time I can ever recall.
There’s a clue there if you weren’t so blind or linear. But most engineer types are like that.
I swear you and HB have the imaginative capacity of a rock.
When they start capping wells is when production is reduced.
I swear you and
HBHA, HousingAnalyist have the imaginative capacity of a rock.It’s not doing any good Lola. Prices are falling and storage is at record highs.
“Prices are falling and storage is at record highs.”
Why do you think that affects me Dimwit? Or I care? The reason I’m interested is because it is fascinating.
If it goes south, I still don’t think the banks will be affected.
When have I ever been a champion for high oil prices? They’ve shot up my airline tickets 50% in 5 years.
Don’t let falling prices anger you Lola. Cheer up. Falling prices are your wallets best friend.
Cheer up. Falling prices are your wallets best friend.
Thank you HA.
I needed some unconditional support and dogs and dimwits are good at that.
We’re no substitute for your transvestite/transexual support group but we’re happy to help pull you out of the sewer.
We’re no substitute for your transvestite/transexual support group
No way. Don’t count yourself short HA. I think dogs and dimwits could be great substitute for any support group.
“Dogs and Dimwits“? It sounds perfect.
So if you’re angry, try talking to your dog or to a mirror. It might cheer you up.
Don’t let it get you down Lola. Pick yourself up off the floor, cheer up and get on with your life.
“Pick yourself up off the floor, cheer up and get on with your life.”
Bravo HA, we’re making progress. That’s exactly what you need to be repeating to your dog or a mirror to cheer up. (Just keep your eyes closed.)
Dogs and Dimwits will love you no matter what.
You have to admit Rio, HA told you to sell that shanty. Looks like he was right.
You have to admit Rio, HA told you to sell that shanty. Looks like he was right.
If I were HA, I’d thank you for having his back.
Anyway, let’s look at numbers. My house has “quadrupled” since I think HA told me to sell it in 08-09. I’ve shown you the articles. So how was he “right”?
Since 08, my house has “paid for” its construction and my move to Brazil in “free-rent”. So it’s quadrupled, paid for it’s construction and pays me thousands each month in “free rent”
It’s the newest house-way better construction and modern amenities than others, on a desirable cul de sac which is a great place to live.
So how was HA right? How will HA ever be right? I laugh at HA’s advice to me.
And you couldn’t find a buyer for that dump for a fraction of what you got in it Lola.
How will HA ever be right?
And I’m talking about me. Not USA. Yea, I was in a huge bubble. Not My Fault. I can’t see HA being “right” in my situation unless my house declines 80%, my taxes rise 200%, my dog dies, I lose 40 points in IQ and I get hit by a bus.
But yes, $hit is hitting the fan. But we all knew it would. I think I’m positioned OK.
You can’t keep your stories straight Lola.
you couldn’t find a buyer for that dump for a fraction of what you got in it
Wait, how’d you know I was in the bathroom???
That’s where all you webcam sickos broadcast from Lola.
That’s where all you webcam sickos broadcast from
Sorry dimwit, it’s a joke you don’t get - takes smarts. You’re not happy with your sexuality me thinks so you’re mad and projective.
Sorry but if you start a support group of “Dogs and Dimwits” you might be able to afford a condo in the snow.
You’re projecting again Lola. Find another street corner to strut your stuff.
My point made again.
You can’t afford to make a point Lola. You’re already negative.
I’ll be at the beach tomorrow if I feel like it.
You should have dump that shack when you had a chance.
Arcadia, CA Sale Prices Plunge 16% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/
You should have dump that shack when you had a chance.
But your mom’s basement is already full.
And besides….
“Since then (house prices) have continued to climb with prices in São Paulo now tripled since 2008, while prices in Rio have almost quadrupled. “
riotimesonline dot com
Brazil, California. You can’t keep your stories straight anymore Lola.
You’re a fraud.
Brazil, California. You can’t keep your stories straight anymore Lola.
You’re a fraud.
Not only do you call names. But you use lying as a tool to distract. It’s well document on this board I moved to Rio from California in 2008.
And authored by a fraud.
You can’t keep your stories straight lola.
And authored by a fraud.
You can’t keep your stories straight lola.
Liar:
From the HBB 2009
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5632
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2009-09-13 07:42:53
I get to feel a year younger seeing an article posted here from Oct 2008 describing the Brazil situation. But back then I DID think that it was all going to crash here and for awhile the BOVESPA and the Real did.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the Brazilian meltdown. Real estate prices in Rio rose about 5% since Oct 2008, almost exactly the rate of inflation. Real estate prices have tracked the rate of inflation here for the past decade. Source: O Globo, Indexmundi
Exactly. Authored by a fraud.
Exactly. Authored by a fraud.
Another lie of yours busted.
You’re a fraud Lola.
Unlike me HA, you’re a liar. I’ve prove it. Going back to 2009. HA. HA. HA.
FRAUD
lol
The world is awash in a G L U T of oil. Get used to it, Lola.
The Fresno Bee reports from California. “Madera County is swimming in a nine-month supply of homes for sale, a jump from only five months at the end of last year
Water panic? The San Joaquin valley is ground zero for California’s drought. Water is scarce. There’s little or no oversight over agricultural depletion of groundwater. If the drought continues, it might be a harbinger of increased home selling in other parts of the state…
Get your wallet out and we’ll design and build you some de-sale plants.
Cha-ching.
From last night:
MTM%
Calif. Single-family -5.9%
Calif. Condo/Townhome -3.0%
Los Angeles Metro Area -4.3%
Inland Empire -5.2%
San Francisco Bay Area -6.8%
Go to the power point links on this page and check out price per square foot. Prices have been falling for months. What this is consistent with is a speculative market. Ordinarily, lower prices would increase purchases and lower supply. We see the opposite all over the state. This is the result of market participants treating houses like a grilled cheese truck stock.
rolled over.
“Go to the power point links on this page and check out price per square foot. Prices have been falling for months. What this is consistent with is a speculative market. ”
Yes, please do this. It is very illustrative of a SEASONAL market, not a speculative market.
The graph looks like a rolling hillside, with the peak of each hump during the summer, and the trough being in the winter.
With a graph like this what matters is not the MTM data, or even the last several months data, what matters is the YOY data, and for extra credit, the YOY data as compared to prior months’ YOY data.
In this case, the YOY data still shows a YOY increase (of 1.8%), but a smaller annual increase than the prior month (which was up 4.9% YOY).
Will YOY go negative? My guess is that it will, but not significantly, or for long. Nor will it bounce up significantly.
The housing price cycle will really turn down, IMHO, only after development in CA cranks up significantly.
From the language in the press release:
“Price per square foot at the state level has been showing an upward trend since early 2012, and has been rising on a year-over-year basis for 36 consecutive months. In recent months, however, the growth rate in price per square foot has slowed down significantly as home prices leveled off.”
Really? And what was that number?
And the year over year data is negative Rental_Fraud.
Costa Mesa, CA Sale Prices Crash 9% YoY; Declines Accelerate MoM
http://www.zillow.com/costa-mesa-ca-92627/home-values/
Yeah, this is why CAR felt the need to say the PSF price growth was slowing. What they really meant was the rolling hillside is delightful for skipping down, picnic basket over your tanned forearm. Or maybe it’s crashing. We’ll see soon enough. I’m setting up shop for the carnage, how about you?
‘Will YOY go negative? My guess is that it will, but not significantly, or for long. Nor will it bounce up significantly.’
Right, 2 years of multiple offers, flippers, deep pockets out-bidding everyone and the price will glide right to it’s perfect, rightful place. Who knew all that hurried greed would produce a number in such equilibrium? A skeptic would see such activity as a mania, followed by an inescapable collapse. Maybe we can find a skeptic on this blog and ask him.
“A skeptic would see such activity as a mania, followed by an inescapable collapse. Maybe we can find a skeptic on this blog and ask him.”
CR8R
“what matters is the YOY data”
Sorry, what matters is the whole picture, not some nuance. Peak, collapse, echo bubble. The data of the past few months has broken out of the trend “seasonality” range to the downside dramatically. Whatever the dynamics of the 2012/2014 echo bubble were, they are busted.
What is astonishing is the graph of sales by price range. Sales of houses under $750K are in freefall. More expensive houses not so much. The bloodbath is well underway.
Sorry, did that sound too skeptical?
Some positive economic news out of China
“China New Home Prices Drop At Record Pace”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-home-prices-drop-record-013626152.html
It’s amazing and positively bullish to see simultaneous improvements in housing affordability showing up across the global landscape!
oooops….
“There Is A New Mortgage Crisis Brewing”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102447414
Not really. The funds are still there, if housing is appropriately priced for end-user owner occupants. But thanks to the recent flood of deep pocket investors, prices are far above true (fundamentals based) market value in many markets formerly referred to as “a bit frothy.”
Zillow predicts Phoenix home values will increase 4% next year,
zillow makes no sense
While I am a bearish and would like to see a short-term crash, I am skeptical. The banks are holding inventory, they are not foreclosing actively. This might be stretched out alot longer. What will be the trigger?
You would like to see affordable for just a window that lets you in and then back up?
“What will be the trigger?”
Investors trying to cash out ahead of the Fed taking away the punchbowl should suffice.
“What will be the trigger?”
Sellers needing the money for the houses.
Leaked cables show Netanyahu’s Iran bomb claim contradicted by Mossad
Gulf between Israeli secret service and PM revealed in documents shared with the Guardian along with other secrets including CIA bids to contact Hamas
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/23/leaked-spy-cables-netanyahu-iran-bomb-mossad