The Housing Bubble

$1,000,000

I need you to negotiate my contract with the Koch brothers, I am only getting half that amount. (I wish).

What are they really paying you, Dan?

They are not paying me and I oppose one of their primary goals open borders with unlimited cheap labor. Additionally, I do not support lax environmental regulations which would allow them to spew true pollutants. However, co2 is a beneficial gas and not a pollutant and the fact that environmental groups are making it their main focus only discredits them.

“CO2 is a beneficial gas”

The dose makes the poison. Anyone who doesn’t know that basic principle is discredited.

We are talking parts per million, anyone that does not know that is discredited.

to be more exact about 400 parts per million and the world’s atmosphere has at times had ten to twenty times more co2 and the flora and fauna thrived. Humans are adding one or two parts per million per year, so we have thousands of years before we might have something to worry about.

CO2 is poison now?

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/05/14/co2-nears-400-ppm-relax-its-not-global-warming-end-times-but-only-a-big-yawn-climate-depot-special-report/

Even “pure water” is a poison in the right amount. And posts from climate change denial web sites sponsored by big oil are only good for laughs.

How much is Isis paying you to post? Now, can we move on and actually address issues?

I don’t charge the Chamber.

They ought to be charging you a fee for misrepresentation Jingle_Fraud.

“Code Pink and International A.N.S.W.E.R.”

Have you been shipwrecked on an island for the past decade?

The year 2005 called, and it wants its memes back

When interesting point, there were numerous posters on this site that claimed that once Obamacare was implemented it would be as popular as Social Security or Medicare. I disputed that because unlike those two programs which were intergenerational Ponzi schemes, Obamacare only took from the producers of present generations. Thus, it did not provide such an incredible windfall for the present generation of the FSA. They hate it because they are not getting it for free or ten cents on the dollar and the people paying for it directly or indirectly hate it because it drives up their costs. With Social Security the first generation had stories of people paying ten dollars and then drawing ten of thousands of dollars of benefits and the burden of the taxpayers was very minor.

Republicans knocked themselves out trying to pointing out how unsustainable the system was and they lost elections. Thus, the party lost true conservatives and was filled with people that were just Miller-lite versions of Democrats. Now, as the true Republican conservative pointed out would happen, we are bankrupt as a nation. Our democracy has done exactly what happen with the Roman democracy and politicians used the treasury to buy votes. Of course, when schools stopped teaching about the history of Greece and teaching about Roman history this was made easier. Without that knowledge it is easier to dismiss the U.S. constitution as made by white men for white men. Instead of realizing it was drafted to avoid the problems of ancient Rome and limited voting to those that could not be easily bought. You can disagree with some of the limitations imposed but the need to limit the spending powers of government is clear and since we have violated the most important limitation, no transfer of wealth from one individual to another, we are toast.

Here are some recent poll results. Evidence for widespread hatred is not to be found.

CBS News Poll. Feb. 13-17, 2015. N=1,006 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.

“From what you’ve heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010?” If approve: “Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve?” If Disapprove: “Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?”

Strongly approve: 20%
Somewhat approve: 24%
Somewhat disapprove: 14%
Strongly disapprove: 38%
Unsure/No answer: 4%

“Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely.”

Should be kept as is: 6%
Changes are needed: 60%
Needs to be repealed: 32%
Unsure/No answer: 2%

http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

Reality Check:
USA is not bankrupt, SocSec will be fine with some adjustments, most of “Obama’s deficits” were baked into the cake because of Bush’s Wars and TaxCutsForTheRich and the Great Recession.
ObamaCare is working and none of the Repub bogus predictions on the ACA came true.

Bogus Prediction: ACA will “death spiral”

Bogus Prediction: No one will sign up

Bogus Prediction: No One Is Going To Pay For Health Insurance

Bogus Prediction: Premiums Are Going To Skyrocket

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Is The Worst Thing To Happen To Young People Since Moms Joined Facebook

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Is INCREASING The Uninsured Rate

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Will Destroy The Private Health Insurance Industry

I hope there are Democrats still stupid enough to run it, it has changed Congress from having a supermajority in the Senate and a large majority in the House to being in the minority in both. Obamacare is the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans.

Obamacare is the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans.

It probably won’t work that way in 2016. The Republicans, other than those with very safe seats, will probably not call for Obamacare to be repealed. The debate will be about improving it. Even if someone like Ted Cruz gets the nomination, he’ll probably want to keep some of the act’s provisions.

Still a number of Democrats up for election in the Senate that could lose because of it. You just do not get it, for decades the health care debate favored the Democrats, now it favors the Republicans, that is an earth shattering change. Do some Republicans favor some of the provisions sure because big business even likes some since it moved the burden from them unto the taxpayers, however it will become less and less and not more and more unpopular, particularly among minorities since they will no longer feel that being against it, is “dissing” Obama.

I just don’t get it because there’s nothing to get. There’s no earth-shattering change. Look at the poll results that I posted above. Here’s some more from a few months ago.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2014. N=1,200 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.8.
RV = registered voters. Among adults, except where noted.

“When it comes to [see below], which party do you think would do a better job: the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? If you think that neither would do a good job, please just say so.”

“Dealing with Social Security”
Democratic Party: 38%
Republican Party: 26%
About the same: 16%
Neither: 18%
Unsure: 2%

“Dealing with health care”
Democratic Party: 39%
Republican Party: 32%
About the same: 12%
Neither: 15%
Unsure: 2%

http://www.pollingreport.com/dvsr.htm

for decades the health care debate favored the Democrats, now it favors the Republicans

I bet that would scare the cr@p out of the Republicans.

But I don’t know if it’s true. Rasmussen has Dems up on the issue.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues

Rasmussen Reports , Thursday, December 18, 2014
Voters continue to see Republicans as the party to trust when it comes to economic growth, fiscal restraint and national security. Democrats remain their first choice, however, on issues like health care, education and the environment.

….Democrats hold the trust advantage on seven issues - energy, immigration, government ethics and corruption, health care, Social Security, education and the environment.

How many senate seats do the democrats have to lose before you do get it? The first time the republican even held the House in my lifetime was 1994, now they have a large majority and this happened after the democrats had gained a large majority in 2008.

What is there to get, exactly? Are you still talking about health care?

Here’s something else to chew on. Next year there will be 34 Senate seats up for election. Ten of those are held by Democrats and the other 24 by Republicans. That represent a good opportunity for the Democrats to win a bunch of seats back and possibly the majority.

Not really.

Collapsing demand, forced liquidations, crumbling prices. It’s all there.

Credit Markets
Germany Sells Five-Year Debt at Negative Yield for First Time on Record
Move Reflects Plummeting Borrowing Costs Across Europe
By Emese Bartha and Ben Edwards
Updated Feb. 25, 2015 9:20 a.m. ET

Germany on Wednesday sold five-year government debt at a negative yield for the first time on record, reflecting plunging borrowing costs across the region in the run-up to the European Central Bank’s sovereign-bond-buying program.

The German Finance Agency sold €3.281 billion ($3.72 billion) of bonds maturing in April 2020 at an average yield of minus 0.08%. At a similar deal in January, the yield was 0.05%.

The negative yield means investors are effectively paying the German state for holding its debt. Even so, bond prices—which climb when yields drop—are expected to rise further once the ECB starts its latest round of stimulus measures next month, meaning investors could potentially sell the bonds at a profit.

“The negative yield is not scaring investors away,” said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank .

Given that eurozone interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, buying five-year German debt and selling shorter-term German bonds with yields that are even more negative might appeal to investors, said David Tan, global head of rates at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

“We see no prospect of the ECB tightening in the near term,” he said.
…

I think uncle FED makes it pretty clear there is nothing of any value backing the federal reserve note.

You don’t have it use it to make transactions but certain debts can only be paid in dollars such as taxes.

It is pretty clear the only thing backing the dollar is confidence that if you accept it you will be able to give it to someone else and they will accept it for goods and services.

The other thing backing it is there is basically they have a monopoly on currency creation in the US.

Why would someone lose confidence in the dollar? What would make somebody not want to accept it?

One thing I can think of is hyperinflation.

Can anyone think of any other reasons you would not accept a dollar bill from someone?

I think uncle FED makes it pretty clear there is nothing of any value backing the federal reserve note.

2 things supposedly back up the US$ - gold (which may or may not exist) + weaponry of the U.S. The value of the weaponry lies in the threat that it imposes. Right now, the threat has value. If that threat is ever exposed as being naked, perceived value goes out the window.

” I can service a billion dollar loan on my salary…”

Trouble is, you can’t repay the principle.

Of course not and that is the point, neither can numerous businesses and local governments and even the national government, it all comes crashing down if “normal” interest rates are attempted.

It’s crashing regardless of where rates go.

Can anyone think of any other reasons you would not accept a dollar bill from someone?

Insert Ebola joke here. But if someone gave me a dollar I would exchange it for coffee or something.

Azdude

I think one reason could be if the dollar priced itself out of reach ie, if the dollar continuously increased in perceived value so much over all other currencies - then no foreign countries would borrow it because they would suffer on the exchange rate when repaying - like what is beginning to happen right now.

But I think Albuquerquedan could be right though, fools will push the limits. I am sure foreign countries are making “billions” on these spreads at current status - but for how long and will it end overnight? Probably.

There is some other commentary later on about what happens when you are not a good steward.

It must be complacency. I’ve wondered about it. People look at Applebee’s and take comfort without looking any deeper than that. There’s a reason why these news outlets run constant feeds of stock prices, and it’s all up and away. Not many are asking, how can the price of so many assets skyrocket while bonds are telling us danger is ahead? Bernanke said what he was doing was unprecedented. That should have got more attention; what do you mean Bernanke? That you have no idea what could result? I don’t either, except that one scenario is people think all these new cars and high priced, money losing IPO’s is some new era of effortless prosperity. I’ve been chuckling lately when I hear someone say, ‘ohh Greece can’t pay back what they owe.’ Like tiny Greece will cause global collapse. Remember the guy in China who said there were a thousand cities there just like Greece.

The other day one of those strange news articles reported the Fed and OCC called all the investment banks to a meeting last fall. The banks were warned to stop blowing up the high yield (junk) bond bubble, and that they would sanction them if it went further. These bonds alone could blow up the financial system. Everyday now, I read that another country is slipping into deflation. How many commodities have to crash? Yesterday I posted an article saying the price of cow hides and renderings is in the tank!

I’m in Combotechies camp.
Deflation is what’s on the horizon.
I have trickled some into oil stocks. With the idea that more poverty in the middle east could be dumping fuel on an ongoing fire.

I own a very modest house outright and some electric cars as a hedge against some bank or internet failure or hacker attack that suddenly makes my accounts go to zero.

but mostly cash and treasuries.

They can create inflation but I don’t think they’ll do it.
They would need to tax the elite and print money to create jobs and fan that money over the entire economy. They would need to restructure trade. As it is now printed dollars are buried and are doing nothing but propping up the stockmarket and banks. Trade is designed to further concentrate wealth. Tax policy is designed to further concentrate wealth. More and more as the elite cement their hold gov policy is being used to concentrate wealth. This all means deflation as far as the eye can see. I think we are all turning Japanese.

Measton, one question, when has a country that uses its own fiat currency had sustained deflation or even severe deflation for one year? I can go on and on about countries that have created high inflation even hyperinflation using a fiat currency but deflation events always seem to be tied to countries that either are on the gold standard or are using someone’s currency other than the one they can print. If Greece could print euros it would not be having deflation or even disinflation.

Well we seem to be doing it right now.

OIl down, mining and coal down.
farm prices down
Housing down

Obviously for gov the main thing they want to do is increase GDP and taxes.

Printing money will not do this if wages do not rise. People have gone through all the coping mechanisms to deal with rising prices and flat wages.

1. Work more hours
2. Send wife to work
3. Spend savings
4. Borrow money and sell assets

After you’ve done all those things rising prices just shift spending from wants to needs. They do nothing to increase GDP. This shift from wants to needs reduces job openings and drives wages down even more. Throw in technology, a starving global work force willing to work for bread alone, and gov controlled completely by the elite and you have all the ingredients for further deflation.

Japan comes the closest but by printing money it has managed to avoid deflation and has had only low inflation for several decades.

http://mises.org/library/myth-japans-lost-decades

Well we seem to be doing it right now.

The year on year CPI does not show deflation and now that gasoline prices are moving up, I do not see month on month deflation in our future.

Japan comes the closest but by printing money it has managed to avoid deflation and has had only low inflation for several decades

I need to add and by running large budget deficits. However, it created a very large bubble just prior to its period of low inflation.

Below, is the CPI numbers for December and you will see shelter, food and utility costs are all still rising sharply. Gasoline has taken the overall index done for the month but not the year. Additionally, for reasons I explained for months oil cannot stay this low so gasoline will be contributing to inflation going forward not deflation.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

But being a MS-13 gangster is good training for a GS position.

Some costs but with shale oil and other projects like oil sands probably not the most important cost, the cost of capital. Since these projects are now perceived to be more risky, both the price and availability of capital has changed to the detriment of the producers. Without access to capital, no new shale oil wells are drilled or completed and since the wells deplete around 2/3 within six months production falls quickly . As I said before it is unlike previous gluts because it plays out at warp speed.

Debt burdened producers are not competitive in a situation of overcapacity. They will be liquidated.

And oil production will fall because of it.

No, repayment of debt will fall because of it.

If you can’t earn a profit with oil at $10/barrel, pump more. That’s the obvious answer and outcome.

You lose on every barrel so you make it up with volume? That model does not even work for Amazon with non-finite goods. Right now, the shale oil producers are depleting their best wells, the wells after that will produce half the amount of oil per day and thus will need twice the price to operate for most of them that will be around $100 a barrel. Geology is destiny.

What matters is price. And price is falling.

Update: Oil Falls Through $49 Floor; Now $50 Ceiling

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

I clicked on your link and it was up 20 cents a barrel. BTW. it is Brent that really sets the price of gasoline these days. About a month ago, it was almost the same price as WTI at around $45. Now, it is selling for almost $60 and if you go to the futures market it is $65. Almost half way to $80 and the oil production declines have not yet arrived but will within weeks. Expect both WTI and Brent to be increasing throughout the year with WTI closing the gap. The $50 ceiling is much like the glass ceiling someone’s talking point which ignores reality. Go to the pump and find your $10 oil, and if you do please tell me where to get my gas.

I clicked on my link and it was down $65 a barrel and falling BTW.

Remember…. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.

Gasoline is now up five cents a gallon, just today:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

I think we will overshoot on cutting production and Saudi Arabia will cut production at that time and maybe we can throw in a war.

That being said, we could also see total economic collapse and with that oil prices would collapse as well.

We know. Lower prices is the end of the world. Right? RIGHT?

Just checked the oil markets, it is amazing. The price for April is up by about $1.70 but the price for December is up about 1.80, WTI is now above $60 for December of 2015, ten dollars a barrel of contango, back up the oil tanker. If this holds, Brent will be closing in on $70 a barrel for December when the market opens tomorrow.

Ironically, after escaping the blame for many of the things he has done to raise the price of oil such as destabilizing Libya, Syria and Iraq, Obama will probably be blamed for soaring gasoline prices due to his veto of the XL pipeline. Of course, the immediate rise will have virtually nothing to do with the veto, but the public likes simple stories with simple conclusions. Explaining how Rice and Hillary took 1.5 million barrels of oil off the market in Libya and that is the reason for high gasoline prices throughout most of the Obama presidency is difficult, the XL veto is simple to understand.

If you think oil is going to return to its cost of production then oil has a long way to fall.

Of course the market doesn’t care about those numbers, but the oil producers (The Individual Countries) care about those numbers…..

Saudi Arabia break even is $5/bbl.

If the value of the dollar was still what it was in 1913 and could buy the same amount of gold.

From what I’ve read and heard toys can be a BIG problem if living in a condo or anywhere with a HOA, many have been hassled over trivial matters. I wouldn’t deal with a HOA anyway but do have a couple of classic vehicles I tinker with, do a little welding, woodwork, etc. and no way I’m going to be in a position where some pencilneck can tell me what I can and cannot do in my garage or driveway.

Yes, because anyone that is critical of Obama is a racist. No one can oppose him for the same reasons they opposed Carter.

“constantly posts stories about appropriately named phony scandals”

Matthew Boyle
6/20/12

President Barack Obama has asserted executive privilege over documents pertaining to Operation Fast and Furious. The move followed Attorney General Eric Holder’s last-second request for him to do so, ahead of a scheduled House oversight committee vote to begin contempt of Congress proceedings against Holder.

Obama granted the 11th-hour request after negotiations between Holder and the committee’s chairman, Rep. Darrell Issa, fell apart again on Tuesday evening after a 20-minute meeting. Holder had agreed beforehand that he would provide internal DOJ documents to Issa ahead of the meeting. He did not bring the documents. On Tuesday evening, Issa gave him one final chance to provide the documents before the 10 a.m. scheduled vote to hold Holder in contempt.

Holder again did not provide the documents to Congress. Then, on Wednesday morning, minutes before the meeting, it was announced Obama had agreed to assert executive privilege over those documents.

“The assertion of executive privilege raises monumental questions,” Grassley said. “How can the President assert executive privilege if there was no White House involvement? How can the President exert executive privilege over documents he’s supposedly never seen? Is something very big being hidden to go to this extreme? The contempt citation is an important procedural mechanism in our system of checks and balances. The questions from Congress go to determining what happened in a disastrous government program for accountability and so that it’s never repeated again.”

Keith Koffler is a racist who should be sealed under executive privilege like the documents pertaining to Operation Fast and Furious.

“constantly posts stories about appropriately named phony scandals”

Jul 3, 2013

Here is a list of 20, as documented by veteran White House reporter Keith Koffler):

1. IRS targets Obama’s enemies: The IRS targeted conservative and pro-Israel groups prior to the 2012 election. Questions are being raised about why this occurred, who ordered it, whether there was any White House involvement and whether there was an initial effort to hide who knew about the targeting and when.

2. Benghazi: This is actually three scandals in one: The failure of administration to protect the Benghazi mission; the changes made to the talking points in order to suggest the attack was motivated by an anti-Muslim video; and the refusal of the White House to say what President Obama did the night of the attack.

3. Keeping an eye on The Associated Press: The Justice Department performed a massive cull of Associated Press reporters’ phone records as part of a leak investigation.

4. Rosengate: The Justice Department suggested that Fox News reporter James Rosen is a criminal for reporting about classified information and subsequently monitored his phones and emails.

5. Potential Holder perjury I: Attorney General Eric Holder told Congress he had never been associated with “potential prosecution” of a journalist for perjury when in fact he signed the affidavit that termed Rosen a potential criminal.

6. The ATF “Fast and Furious” scheme: Federal agencies allowed weapons from U.S. gun dealers to “walk” across the border into the hands of Mexican drug dealers. The ATF summarily lost track of scores of those weapons, many of which were used in crimes, including the December 2010 killing of Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry.

7. Potential Holder perjury II: Holder told Congress in May 2011 that he had just recently heard about the Fast and Furious gun walking scheme when there is evidence he may have known much earlier.

8. Sebelius demands payment: HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius solicited donations from companies HHS might regulate. The money would be used to help her sign up uninsured Americans for Obamacare.

9. The Pigford scandal: An Agriculture Department effort that started as an attempt to compensate black farmers who had been discriminated against by the agency but evolved into a gravy train delivering several billion dollars in cash to thousands of additional minority and female farmers who probably didn’t face discrimination.

13. Solyndra: Republicans charged the Obama Administration funded and promoted its poster boy for green energy despite warning signs the company was headed for bankruptcy. The administration also allegedly pressed Solyndra to delay layoff announcements until after the 2010 midterm elections.

14. AKA Lisa Jackson: Former EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson used the name “Richard Windsor” when corresponding by email with other government officials, drawing charges she was trying to evade scrutiny.

15. The New Black Panthers: The Justice Department was accused of using a racial double standard in failing to pursue a voter intimidation case against Black Panthers who appeared to be menacing voters at a polling place in 2008 in Philadelphia.

16. Waging war all by myself: Obama may have violated the Constitution and both the letter and the spirit of the War Powers Resolution by attacking Libya without Congressional approval.

18. AKPD not A-OK: The administration paid millions to the former firm of then-White House adviser David Axelrod, AKPD Message and Media, to promote passage of Obamacare. Some questioned whether the firm was hired to help pay Axelrod $2 million AKPD owed him.

19. Sestak, we’ll take care of you: Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel used Bill Clinton as an intermediary to probe whether former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) would accept a prominent, unpaid White House advisory position in exchange for dropping out of the 2010 primary against former Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.).

20. I’ll pass my own laws: Obama has repeatedly been accused of making end runs around Congress by deciding which laws to enforce, including the decision not to deport illegal immigrants who may have been allowed to stay in the United States had Congress passed the “Dream Act.”

With three-and-a-half years of Obama’s second term remaining, there is no telling how many more scandals will erupt.

However, it’s important to note that many of these are not “scandals” in the typical sense, but rather the machinations of an imperial president who seeks to “rule” over his “subjects,” without their consent.

Don’t expect Obama to suddenly grow a conscience and constrain himself, meaning this list is destined to grow larger.

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/041056_obama_scandals_benghazi_fast_and_furious.html#ixzz3SnSdFGgl

Like crime rates particularly homicide rates?

Like crime rates particularly homicide rates?

Including everything under the sun.

At least Brazil has strong pollution laws, maybe not:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/rio-officials-probe-source-fish-die-off-olympic-29217766

At least Brazil has strong pollution laws, maybe not:

Wow.
I can pull crappy stuff about China all day long. But it’s childish.