February 25, 2015

Bits Bucket for February 25, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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244 Comments »

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 03:19:10

How much is William Kristol paying Clubber Lang to post here?

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 04:11:10

And speaking of getting paid (Ben Jones has the IP logs BTW)

Weekly Standard - Experts to Congress: Increase Defense Spending

Washington Times - U.S. military decimated under Obama, only ‘marginally able’ to defend nation

Breitbart - Report: Iraqi Christian Militia Fighting ISIS Running Out of Ammo

Fox News - Iran conducts military drill against replica US carrier

World Net Daily - Secret Iranian nuke facility finally revealed

The “War on Terror” has cost over $1.6 trillion so far

American taxpayers and voters, do you feel like you got your money’s worth?

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-25 04:53:36

I think believe is the Housing Bubble Blog. Please get your boots on the ground and move along…

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 05:02:09

How much is the National Association of Realtors paying you to post here?

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Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-25 05:14:19

$1,000,000

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 08:24:32

I need you to negotiate my contract with the Koch brothers, I am only getting half that amount. (I wish).

 
Comment by Uncle House
2015-02-25 14:23:49

What are they really paying you, Dan?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:30:21

They are not paying me and I oppose one of their primary goals open borders with unlimited cheap labor. Additionally, I do not support lax environmental regulations which would allow them to spew true pollutants. However, co2 is a beneficial gas and not a pollutant and the fact that environmental groups are making it their main focus only discredits them.

 
Comment by Uncle House
2015-02-25 15:51:56

“CO2 is a beneficial gas”

The dose makes the poison. Anyone who doesn’t know that basic principle is discredited.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 16:08:03

We are talking parts per million, anyone that does not know that is discredited.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 16:14:24

to be more exact about 400 parts per million and the world’s atmosphere has at times had ten to twenty times more co2 and the flora and fauna thrived. Humans are adding one or two parts per million per year, so we have thousands of years before we might have something to worry about.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 16:15:11

CO2 is poison now?

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

 
 
Comment by Uncle House
2015-02-25 16:57:00

Even “pure water” is a poison in the right amount. And posts from climate change denial web sites sponsored by big oil are only good for laughs.

 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-25 04:56:01

I believe this is the Housing Bubble Blog. Please put your boots on and move along!

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 05:03:59

How much is the Sacramento Area Chamber of Commerce paying you to post here?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 06:10:20

How much is Isis paying you to post? Now, can we move on and actually address issues?

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-25 06:31:44

I don’t charge the Chamber.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:03:57

They ought to be charging you a fee for misrepresentation Jingle_Fraud.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2015-02-25 07:30:00

“And speaking of getting paid (Ben Jones has the IP logs BTW)”

Welcome to the t:o:r network.

 
Comment by Clubber Lang
2015-02-25 09:31:08

“And speaking of getting paid (Ben Jones has the IP logs BTW)”

Yes he does goon. How much is the CPUSA, Code Pink and International A.N.S.W.E.R. paying you to post?

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 10:04:16

And if Ben Jones didn’t want it posted here it wouldn’t be here

Pointing out the endless hypocrisy within the Republican Party = Communism

Got it

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Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 10:26:08

“Code Pink and International A.N.S.W.E.R.”

Have you been shipwrecked on an island for the past decade?

The year 2005 called, and it wants its memes back

 
 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-02-25 16:44:17

You mad, bro?

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Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-02-25 09:39:30

I wonder if BJ knows where every IP comes from, though.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 06:26:08

Which version of Clubber Lang?

 
Comment by butters
2015-02-25 08:15:04

I had to google who Clubber Lang was/is. I pity myself.

 
Comment by Clubber Lang
2015-02-25 09:10:15

Bill Kristol is a progressive. My truth serum would be kryptonite to him as much as it is to your average communist.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:34:50

true dat.

 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 10:37:37

Mr Lang’s IP address has been traced to an organization called “Draft Lindsey 2016 LLC” headquartered in Northwest Washington DC

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/01/18/lindsey-graham-president-testing-waters/

 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 04:38:32

Region VIII news

Metro Denver home-price gains pick up steam; another record high set

“Denver’s Case-Shiller home price index reached 158.17 in December, an all-time high, topping November’s index reading of 157.39.

An index reading of 158.17 means that local home resale prices averaged 58.17 percent higher than they were in the benchmark month of January 2000, according to the Case-Shiller report series, based on non-seasonally-adjusted data.

December was the 36th consecutive month with a year-over-year gain in Denver prices, according to Case-Shiller data.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2015/02/24/metro-denver-home-price-gains-pick-up-steam.html

And because people here don’t need a bunch of allegedly “conservative” nanny state Republicans telling them what they can and can’t put inside their bodies

Poll: Colorado still shows strong support for legal pot

“When asked, “Do you still support or oppose this law?” 58 percent of respondents said they support the pot-legalizing Amendment 64 while 38 percent said they oppose it. Men support legalization (63 percent) more than women (53 percent). And among the 18-34 age demographic, of course, there was more support of legal pot (82 percent) than among voters 55 and older (50 percent against).”

http://www.thecannabist.co/2015/02/24/marijuana-legalization-poll-colorado/30346/

Comment by rj chicago
2015-02-25 09:07:38

Man o man there Boots - picking sides in a political argument is like pissing from the back of a truck facing into the wind at 60 miles an hour!!! Either way no one wins.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-25 09:31:37

On linked in, some blowhard consultant posted an article he wrote about how employers are avoiding Colorado because of the legalized pot.

 
Comment by tango_uniform
2015-02-25 13:28:15

“Denver’s Case-Shiller home price index reached 158.17 in December, an all-time high…”

That reefer madness will do that to a person.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:17:43

an all-time high…”

No pun intended?

 
 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 04:50:00

They attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms

The Hill dot com - NSA staffers rake in Silicon Valley cash

“Investors looking to ride the boom in cybersecurity are dangling big paydays in front of former NSA staffers, seeking to secure access to the insider knowledge they gained while working for the world’s most elite surveillance agency.

With companies desperate to protect their networks against hackers, many tech executives say the best way to develop security products is to enlist the talents of people who have years of experience cracking through them.

“The stories he could tell,” venture capitalist Ray Rothrock recalled about his meetings with a former NSA employee who founded the start-up Area 1 Security. “They come with a perspective that nobody in Silicon Valley has.”

NSA alums are following the money, uprooting companies they founded on the East Coast for the deeper investment pools of California’s tech hub.”

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/233740-nsa-staffers-rake-in-silicon-valley-cash

 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 05:00:39

ObamaCare twofer from The Hill dot com

IRS will allow people to keep extra money from ObamaCare tax error

“People who received incorrect tax information from ObamaCare will be allowed to keep the extra money in their refunds and will not have to refile their taxes, the Treasury Department said Tuesday.

The Obama administration announced last week that 800,000 people signed up for ObamaCare had received incorrect tax information. Most of those people will be receiving a corrected form in the mail early next month, and are being asked to delay filing their taxes until then.
But about 50,000 had already filed their taxes, and it had been unclear whether they would be forced to do so again.

Treasury said people who did not pay enough in taxes because of the glitch will be allowed to keep the money. If they paid too much, then they have the option of filing an amended return to get their money back.”

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/233715-irs-will-let-people-keep-extra-money-in-obamacare-tax-error

H&R Block: Majority of ObamaCare customers paying back subsidy

“A majority of ObamaCare customers, 52 percent, are being forced to pay back some of their subsidies during this year’s tax season, according to new data from H&R Block.

Customers are paying back an average of $530, which has caused a 17 percent drop in the average return so far this spring, according to the analysis by the tax services giant.

The Obama administration had warned that people could end up paying back some of their subsidies because many were relying on previous years’ income when applying for the tax breaks.

H&R Block has predicted that “most filers” would owe some of their subsidies back to the federal government because they were relying on 2012 income.

The new data, which was released Tuesday, only represents about six weeks of tax filings. Still, it could pose a significant challenge for the administration as it faces an already tough tax season.”

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/233691-hr-block-half-of-obamacare-customers-owe-money-back

Comment by oxide
2015-02-25 08:16:32

The commenters to the Hill article are showing how stupid they are. They seem to think that their 2013 subsidy should be based on what they SAID their 2013 income was going to be instead of what it actually was. And if they get less subsidy then they think they deserve, now Nancy is picking their pockets.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:09:52

If the majority of voters were not stupid, Obama would not be president.

Comment by Clubber Lang
2015-02-25 09:11:59

Crushed! Out of the park!

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 10:37:19

When interesting point, there were numerous posters on this site that claimed that once Obamacare was implemented it would be as popular as Social Security or Medicare. I disputed that because unlike those two programs which were intergenerational Ponzi schemes, Obamacare only took from the producers of present generations. Thus, it did not provide such an incredible windfall for the present generation of the FSA. They hate it because they are not getting it for free or ten cents on the dollar and the people paying for it directly or indirectly hate it because it drives up their costs. With Social Security the first generation had stories of people paying ten dollars and then drawing ten of thousands of dollars of benefits and the burden of the taxpayers was very minor.

Republicans knocked themselves out trying to pointing out how unsustainable the system was and they lost elections. Thus, the party lost true conservatives and was filled with people that were just Miller-lite versions of Democrats. Now, as the true Republican conservative pointed out would happen, we are bankrupt as a nation. Our democracy has done exactly what happen with the Roman democracy and politicians used the treasury to buy votes. Of course, when schools stopped teaching about the history of Greece and teaching about Roman history this was made easier. Without that knowledge it is easier to dismiss the U.S. constitution as made by white men for white men. Instead of realizing it was drafted to avoid the problems of ancient Rome and limited voting to those that could not be easily bought. You can disagree with some of the limitations imposed but the need to limit the spending powers of government is clear and since we have violated the most important limitation, no transfer of wealth from one individual to another, we are toast.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 10:57:14

Here are some recent poll results. Evidence for widespread hatred is not to be found.

CBS News Poll. Feb. 13-17, 2015. N=1,006 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.

“From what you’ve heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010?” If approve: “Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve?” If Disapprove: “Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?”

Strongly approve: 20%
Somewhat approve: 24%
Somewhat disapprove: 14%
Strongly disapprove: 38%
Unsure/No answer: 4%

“Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely.”

Should be kept as is: 6%
Changes are needed: 60%
Needs to be repealed: 32%
Unsure/No answer: 2%

http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 11:00:55

Reality Check:
USA is not bankrupt, SocSec will be fine with some adjustments, most of “Obama’s deficits” were baked into the cake because of Bush’s Wars and TaxCutsForTheRich and the Great Recession.
ObamaCare is working and none of the Repub bogus predictions on the ACA came true.

Bogus Prediction: ACA will “death spiral”

Bogus Prediction: No one will sign up

Bogus Prediction: No One Is Going To Pay For Health Insurance

Bogus Prediction: Premiums Are Going To Skyrocket

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Is The Worst Thing To Happen To Young People Since Moms Joined Facebook

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Is INCREASING The Uninsured Rate

Bogus Prediction: Obamacare Will Destroy The Private Health Insurance Industry

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 11:18:05

I hope there are Democrats still stupid enough to run it, it has changed Congress from having a supermajority in the Senate and a large majority in the House to being in the minority in both. Obamacare is the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 15:27:40

Obamacare is the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans.

It probably won’t work that way in 2016. The Republicans, other than those with very safe seats, will probably not call for Obamacare to be repealed. The debate will be about improving it. Even if someone like Ted Cruz gets the nomination, he’ll probably want to keep some of the act’s provisions.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 16:20:08

Still a number of Democrats up for election in the Senate that could lose because of it. You just do not get it, for decades the health care debate favored the Democrats, now it favors the Republicans, that is an earth shattering change. Do some Republicans favor some of the provisions sure because big business even likes some since it moved the burden from them unto the taxpayers, however it will become less and less and not more and more unpopular, particularly among minorities since they will no longer feel that being against it, is “dissing” Obama.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 16:31:49

I just don’t get it because there’s nothing to get. There’s no earth-shattering change. Look at the poll results that I posted above. Here’s some more from a few months ago.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2014. N=1,200 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.8.
RV = registered voters. Among adults, except where noted.

“When it comes to [see below], which party do you think would do a better job: the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? If you think that neither would do a good job, please just say so.”

“Dealing with Social Security”
Democratic Party: 38%
Republican Party: 26%
About the same: 16%
Neither: 18%
Unsure: 2%

“Dealing with health care”
Democratic Party: 39%
Republican Party: 32%
About the same: 12%
Neither: 15%
Unsure: 2%

http://www.pollingreport.com/dvsr.htm

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 16:40:55

for decades the health care debate favored the Democrats, now it favors the Republicans

I bet that would scare the cr@p out of the Republicans.

But I don’t know if it’s true. Rasmussen has Dems up on the issue.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues

Rasmussen Reports , Thursday, December 18, 2014
Voters continue to see Republicans as the party to trust when it comes to economic growth, fiscal restraint and national security. Democrats remain their first choice, however, on issues like health care, education and the environment.

….Democrats hold the trust advantage on seven issues - energy, immigration, government ethics and corruption, health care, Social Security, education and the environment.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 16:49:34

How many senate seats do the democrats have to lose before you do get it? The first time the republican even held the House in my lifetime was 1994, now they have a large majority and this happened after the democrats had gained a large majority in 2008.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 16:55:28

What is there to get, exactly? Are you still talking about health care?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 17:14:46

Here’s something else to chew on. Next year there will be 34 Senate seats up for election. Ten of those are held by Democrats and the other 24 by Republicans. That represent a good opportunity for the Democrats to win a bunch of seats back and possibly the majority.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-25 09:34:34

If the majority of voters were not stupid, Obama would not be president neither a Repub nor a Dem would get elected.

There, fixed it.

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2015-02-25 05:38:38

from yesterday’s bit bucket thread:
“Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-24 07:30:13

I’ll say it again; for those pining for the days of yore, the only reason things seemed more civil was because I was deleting dozens, even hundred of comments. So I’ll ask you Bubba, should I delete more comments? I still do, but are you asking for more deletes? Let’s hear it; “delete him, delete her, delete that!”

“Or I can try and treat you all as adults with skin thicker than a snowflake, who can deal with the pretty harmless slings and arrows of anonymous internet commentary.”

Ben, thanks for your comments. Yes, often times I do pine for the days of yore when there was a more civil tone and in recent years have asked myself, “How does so-and-so get away with posting like that?”

It became pretty clear to me yesterday that a request for one day of civility was too much to hope for, as even within my request for civility thread there was an ad hominem attack on a different poster.

In my pining for the days of yore I notice how many people who once posted some really good content no longer do so and my gut feeling is that it has to do with a deterioration in the level of civility.

This is your blog and I understand that the level of moderation that you choose to enforce will never satisfy everyone. We need to accept that.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 08:27:26

A lot of what you are remembering was the result of me sitting at the computer for 14 hours a day and I can’t do that anymore. It was never that civil, you just didn’t see what was going on behind the dashboard. I used to not let much politics go on, but you guys wore me down and it is true that the government has largely taken over the housing market. The central bank has done what it has with the governments consent or urging. Is it a surprise that discussion has gotten raw everywhere? You think this blog is bad? Read the comments at a Yahoo article, for example. I’m not the first to point out that we used to have a little rancor around elections, but now it’s 24/7, egged on by these weird entertainment/news cable channels. It’s like world wide wrestling that everybody can get involved in.

IMO, these bubbles are coming to a head, and it won’t be much longer before people will have bigger problems than the civility or lack of on blogs.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-02-25 10:05:35

Thanks so much for your efforts—both then, and now, Ben!

It’s like world wide wrestling that everybody can get involved in.

LOL… Beautiful mental image, right there. Gave me flashbacks to watching that garbage as a kid while waiting for my music lessons.

IMO, these bubbles are coming to a head, and it won’t be much longer before people will have bigger problems than the civility or lack of on blogs.

I sure hope you are right that it is soon! I’m growing old waiting for sanity to re-assert itself! Seriously, it has been more than a decade now since I first said “this cannot last”, and though we had a brief return of rationality, we are now right back near peak insanity in many markets.

But I should mention that I have recently been fighting the urge to go short again…

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-02-25 10:07:25

we are now right back near peak insanity in many markets.

Oh, and I forgot to mention the BEST part: we are right back near peak insanity in many markets, upon the back of EVEN WORSE fundamentals!!

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:20:07

Not really.

Collapsing demand, forced liquidations, crumbling prices. It’s all there.

 
 
 
Comment by brother_jimmy
2015-02-25 10:07:34

To comment on your article from yesterday about the Canadian housing market, the sad part of the whole thing is that people will blame the crash on the decline in oil prices. That’s a red herring. Or maybe we should call this the black swan event that wasn’t modeled.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:50:19

Falling housing prices enrages many. It’s that simple.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 05:40:23

When does yellen take away the teaser rate on the national debt?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 06:30:56

What teaser rate? So far as I can tell, the ultra-low short rates could linger for years.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-02-25 06:39:02

+.25%…..

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 06:40:57

-0.25%

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 14:05:48

Credit Markets
Germany Sells Five-Year Debt at Negative Yield for First Time on Record
Move Reflects Plummeting Borrowing Costs Across Europe
By Emese Bartha and Ben Edwards
Updated Feb. 25, 2015 9:20 a.m. ET

Germany on Wednesday sold five-year government debt at a negative yield for the first time on record, reflecting plunging borrowing costs across the region in the run-up to the European Central Bank’s sovereign-bond-buying program.

The German Finance Agency sold €3.281 billion ($3.72 billion) of bonds maturing in April 2020 at an average yield of minus 0.08%. At a similar deal in January, the yield was 0.05%.

The negative yield means investors are effectively paying the German state for holding its debt. Even so, bond prices—which climb when yields drop—are expected to rise further once the ECB starts its latest round of stimulus measures next month, meaning investors could potentially sell the bonds at a profit.

“The negative yield is not scaring investors away,” said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank .

Given that eurozone interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, buying five-year German debt and selling shorter-term German bonds with yields that are even more negative might appeal to investors, said David Tan, global head of rates at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

“We see no prospect of the ECB tightening in the near term,” he said.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 07:39:29

.25% is the point. If you set the interest rate low enough I can service a billion dollar loan on my salary. Throughout America businesses and local governments are up to the eyebrows in debt that they could not service if interest rates were at historic real rates. Any rise in interest rates even a nominal .25% rise will cause a surge in bankruptcies. Just like the full extent of lies in the liars loans did not become apparent to the teaser rates ended, we now are facing a tsunami of bad loans.

But is that the tip of the iceberg? Could it be that one of the reasons the bankers fear a fed audit is we will learn that we have a dollar that is not worth a continental? Has most of the Fed’s gold been leased out and it holds only paper gold or IOUs? If so, the leased out gold is in China and the entities that owe it to the Fed will be declaring bankruptcy as soon as gold spikes when the game gets revealed. Also, is there really world demand for our treasuries or are foreign banks that can borrow from the fed, borrowing money at .25% from the fed and then buying treasuries with the promise from the Fed to keep interest rates down? They would earn billions and our deficit and debt would be effectively monetized.

Is Greenspan saying buy gold in a vague way because he knows the whole house of cards may collapse soon and a Fed audit would be enough to end the confidence in the dollar? Only questions but questions that should be addressed by a fed audit. But can we handle the truth? Jack Nicolson where are you?

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Comment by azdude
2015-02-25 08:05:11

I think uncle FED makes it pretty clear there is nothing of any value backing the federal reserve note.

You don’t have it use it to make transactions but certain debts can only be paid in dollars such as taxes.

It is pretty clear the only thing backing the dollar is confidence that if you accept it you will be able to give it to someone else and they will accept it for goods and services.

The other thing backing it is there is basically they have a monopoly on currency creation in the US.

Why would someone lose confidence in the dollar? What would make somebody not want to accept it?

One thing I can think of is hyperinflation.

Can anyone think of any other reasons you would not accept a dollar bill from someone?

 
Comment by ocsandrenter
2015-02-25 08:20:39

I think uncle FED makes it pretty clear there is nothing of any value backing the federal reserve note.

2 things supposedly back up the US$ - gold (which may or may not exist) + weaponry of the U.S. The value of the weaponry lies in the threat that it imposes. Right now, the threat has value. If that threat is ever exposed as being naked, perceived value goes out the window.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 09:46:26

” I can service a billion dollar loan on my salary…”

Trouble is, you can’t repay the principle.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 10:06:32

Of course not and that is the point, neither can numerous businesses and local governments and even the national government, it all comes crashing down if “normal” interest rates are attempted.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:18:36

It’s crashing regardless of where rates go.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-02-25 14:29:56

Can anyone think of any other reasons you would not accept a dollar bill from someone?

Insert Ebola joke here. But if someone gave me a dollar I would exchange it for coffee or something.

 
Comment by Patrick
2015-02-25 19:35:54

Azdude

I think one reason could be if the dollar priced itself out of reach ie, if the dollar continuously increased in perceived value so much over all other currencies - then no foreign countries would borrow it because they would suffer on the exchange rate when repaying - like what is beginning to happen right now.

But I think Albuquerquedan could be right though, fools will push the limits. I am sure foreign countries are making “billions” on these spreads at current status - but for how long and will it end overnight? Probably.

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-25 09:50:58

What teaser rate? So far as I can tell, the ultra-low short rates could linger for years.

They have to stay low, or governments around the globe will default.

We are painted into a corner.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2015-02-25 06:35:27

you want to keep your host borrowing.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-02-25 07:03:08

“you want to keep your host borrowing.”

To the max. You want to keep your host borrowing to the max.

The most efficient lender does not entirely bleed the host dry of money but allows the host to keep enough money for himself so as to keep himself going, to keep himself earning.

Also, keeping his hopes alive is part of this, a major part of this.

I like to think of this part as “dangling the carrot”.

If you are the lender then life is good. If you are the host then, well, … not so much.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-25 06:38:29

Maybe when they demand every person get a job? oops send the 20 million illegals home…make sure you really are disabled not just over 50 to get disability..start a CCC WPA depression program…….we cant have idle hands in America ANYMORE. Get the velocity of money back to the norm, the deficit will get back to zero and rates can rise to 4% again back to the norm…..see easy solutions.

Comment by Bluto
2015-02-25 10:03:39

California has had a revived CCC for maybe 25-30 years or so and it is an excellent option for some young people who are still trying to figure out what they want to do and maybe are working deadend low paying jobs. I encouraged my much younger brother to join years ago and it worked out great for him, he did one year as a worker bee and a second as a crew chief.

http://www.ccc.ca.gov/Pages/default.aspx

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:07:44

We’re already paying too much make work jobs. We don’t need more.

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-25 15:43:14

Housing not make work jobs, but stop calling everything an intern job if you are unemployed or on public assistance you work say 15 hours a week in you last field…keeps your skills up, makes you get up a few times a week…..you dont put a paralegal at a car wash but at the DA’s office or legal aid…..

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Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 06:38:38

And speaking of communism

http://www.prisonplanet.com/top-feminist-calls-for-collectivist-revolution.html

Bachelor taxes (I’m talking to you, Selfish Hoarder) are coming soon

And if you don’t “man up” and marry a single mom, you’re probably racist

Sigh, forward

Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-25 08:53:02

Ugh, Alex Jones. Had to wash my hands after clicking that link.

 
Comment by Clubber Lang
2015-02-25 09:14:49

Another mouth breather’s life ruined by marxist professorial indoctrination.

Sad.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:38:07

I am trying to not get banned for an entire week so I will not comment. It is an ambitious goal probably not attainable but dream big.

 
 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-02-25 19:57:46

What was that picture of though! I started vomiting right away.

Wonder if that thing is butch?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 20:19:26

Proof there are nuts on both sides of the spectrum.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-02-25 06:52:10

any positive re markets for first qtr of 2015

a county of even one city?

how about silly valley of san fran?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 07:04:10

If you pay your bills in something other than USD, it might look like the US RE market is still on a tear.

 
Comment by scdave
2015-02-25 07:08:23

how about silly valley of san fran ??

You really don’t want to know…You would not believe it anyway…Hell, I can’t believe it and I am here….

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-25 10:04:51

You would not believe it anyway

$6000 a month apartments … even if the restaurants there are really that good, who has any money left after paying the rent or mortgage to eat at one of those places?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:05:48

Does that include water and garbage? Just kidding, it is unbelievable and unsustainable.

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Comment by rms
2015-02-25 07:35:26

“how about silly valley of san fran?”

Too busy celebrating à la Enemy At The Gates.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:00:37

San Diego, CA Sale Prices Crater 15% YoY; Nosedive MoM And QoQ

http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92128/home-values/

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-25 07:03:24

How to bank hundreds of dollars more each month

Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, offered some simple advice for people trying to get ahead when he visited Yahoo Finance recently: Live like a student.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-bank-hundreds-of-dollars-more-each-month-163549084.html

Comment by scdave
2015-02-25 07:09:56

Live like a student ??

I rent to students…No thanks living like that….

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-25 07:32:44

what he is saying is if you can’t afford new or can put it to use quickly making money then used or ikea is what you have to do.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 07:41:25

For a few hot coeds, I would be willing to live like a student.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-02-25 10:06:05

You need to be a “bad boy” to get their attention.

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Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 07:04:25

warmist warming wednesday, as reported by real journalists

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/24/the-remote-alaskan-village-that-needs-to-be-relocated-due-to-climate-change/

and now back to your regularly scheduled drudge report links

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 07:29:13

Speaking of “following the money”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/us/ties-to-corporate-cash-for-climate-change-researcher.html

The New York Times is the public relations wing of the Obama administration, his de facto mouthpiece

And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 07:58:14

It is kind of an interesting study in human stupidity, with or without Global Warming. A town built on the tip of a sandbar at the mouth of a river. Such places are never permanent. This one has moved before, but now it’s going to be very expensive. I wonder how much government money went into all that modern infrastructure.

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 08:09:18

‘for me the protection of planet earth, the survival of all species and sustainability of our ecosystems is more than a mission. it is my religion and my dharma. - rajendra pachauri, united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change

Comment by MightyMike
2015-02-25 10:13:16

remind me of this:

Genesis 1:26 King James Version (KJV)

And God said, Let us make man in our image, after our likeness: and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creepeth upon the earth.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 10:31:42

There is some other commentary later on about what happens when you are not a good steward.

 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-02-25 08:19:05

did she cash her state of AK oil check?

 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 07:11:31

apparently, amy hoak is now a guest columnist for the wall street journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-raw-deal-for-real-estate-agents-1424363990

you know the bubble is real when the mainstream media starts publishing articles portraying realtors as victims

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:18:18

“you know the bubble is real when the mainstream media starts publishing articles portraying realtors as victims”

Classic.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 07:12:19

‘Trump: In a real estate bubble and I’m waiting for a pop’

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/trump-real-estate-bubble-m-151744312.html

Comment by scdave
2015-02-25 07:20:26

“I am gonna be a big fat buyer”…Hint Donald…Your already fat…2nd hint Donald…When the market crashes, its taking your holdings with it also…On the other hand, you likely think your holdings are “special” so only other peoples real estate in New York will fall in value…What a air bag…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:24:17

It’s not just NY Dave. It’s national.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 08:07:26

Trump does a good job of not putting his money on the line.

What he’s saying is, hundreds of thousands of you listening in NY are going to be out on your butts foreclosed. What’s interesting is the casual aspect of the statement. No shock from the host. No seriousness of the implications. How many pension funds and REIT’s will lose big if he’s right? And I’m saying it’s global, and what is happening will evaporate trillions. It’s already happening; look at Canada. I was reading some comments from up there saying ‘well, there’s no great financial crisis, we’ll be OK.’ This is what will be called the crisis, in the early stages. (The real crisis was letting this thing run away like it has). While I’m planning forward, I don’t have any ease with what the implications are.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:28:17

“What he’s saying is, hundreds of thousands of you listening in NY are going to be out on your butts foreclosed.”

How is it that telegraphed messages like this are missed?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 08:43:35

It must be complacency. I’ve wondered about it. People look at Applebee’s and take comfort without looking any deeper than that. There’s a reason why these news outlets run constant feeds of stock prices, and it’s all up and away. Not many are asking, how can the price of so many assets skyrocket while bonds are telling us danger is ahead? Bernanke said what he was doing was unprecedented. That should have got more attention; what do you mean Bernanke? That you have no idea what could result? I don’t either, except that one scenario is people think all these new cars and high priced, money losing IPO’s is some new era of effortless prosperity. I’ve been chuckling lately when I hear someone say, ‘ohh Greece can’t pay back what they owe.’ Like tiny Greece will cause global collapse. Remember the guy in China who said there were a thousand cities there just like Greece.

The other day one of those strange news articles reported the Fed and OCC called all the investment banks to a meeting last fall. The banks were warned to stop blowing up the high yield (junk) bond bubble, and that they would sanction them if it went further. These bonds alone could blow up the financial system. Everyday now, I read that another country is slipping into deflation. How many commodities have to crash? Yesterday I posted an article saying the price of cow hides and renderings is in the tank!

 
Comment by measton
2015-02-25 12:38:06

I’m in Combotechies camp.
Deflation is what’s on the horizon.
I have trickled some into oil stocks. With the idea that more poverty in the middle east could be dumping fuel on an ongoing fire.

I own a very modest house outright and some electric cars as a hedge against some bank or internet failure or hacker attack that suddenly makes my accounts go to zero.

but mostly cash and treasuries.

They can create inflation but I don’t think they’ll do it.
They would need to tax the elite and print money to create jobs and fan that money over the entire economy. They would need to restructure trade. As it is now printed dollars are buried and are doing nothing but propping up the stockmarket and banks. Trade is designed to further concentrate wealth. Tax policy is designed to further concentrate wealth. More and more as the elite cement their hold gov policy is being used to concentrate wealth. This all means deflation as far as the eye can see. I think we are all turning Japanese.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:10:57

Measton, one question, when has a country that uses its own fiat currency had sustained deflation or even severe deflation for one year? I can go on and on about countries that have created high inflation even hyperinflation using a fiat currency but deflation events always seem to be tied to countries that either are on the gold standard or are using someone’s currency other than the one they can print. If Greece could print euros it would not be having deflation or even disinflation.

 
Comment by measton
2015-02-25 14:29:17

Well we seem to be doing it right now.

OIl down, mining and coal down.
farm prices down
Housing down

Obviously for gov the main thing they want to do is increase GDP and taxes.

Printing money will not do this if wages do not rise. People have gone through all the coping mechanisms to deal with rising prices and flat wages.

1. Work more hours
2. Send wife to work
3. Spend savings
4. Borrow money and sell assets

After you’ve done all those things rising prices just shift spending from wants to needs. They do nothing to increase GDP. This shift from wants to needs reduces job openings and drives wages down even more. Throw in technology, a starving global work force willing to work for bread alone, and gov controlled completely by the elite and you have all the ingredients for further deflation.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:33:50

Japan comes the closest but by printing money it has managed to avoid deflation and has had only low inflation for several decades.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:47:38

Well we seem to be doing it right now.

The year on year CPI does not show deflation and now that gasoline prices are moving up, I do not see month on month deflation in our future.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:57:29

Japan comes the closest but by printing money it has managed to avoid deflation and has had only low inflation for several decades

I need to add and by running large budget deficits. However, it created a very large bubble just prior to its period of low inflation.

Below, is the CPI numbers for December and you will see shelter, food and utility costs are all still rising sharply. Gasoline has taken the overall index done for the month but not the year. Additionally, for reasons I explained for months oil cannot stay this low so gasoline will be contributing to inflation going forward not deflation.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2015-02-25 12:20:43

“What he’s saying is, hundreds of thousands of you listening in NY are going to be out on your butts foreclosed.”

Because you aren’t as good at stiffing creditors and getting off unscathed as he is!

With all the bankruptcies, why is this guy still quoted?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:28:34

Concord, MA Sellers Slash List Prices 26% As Sale Prices Sink Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/concord-ma/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 07:40:22

‘On August 20, 2014 I warned Forbes readers that oil prices were going to drop a lot. (See article; the price of WTI was $104/barrel at the time). I’ve rarely felt more conspicuous about a prediction and I’m in the business of making predictions. Now what? Prices have collapsed–or I should say: the bubble has popped. What happens next?’

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:43:34

The squeeze is on and it’s in the very early stages. Can’t pay? Liquidate.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 07:49:56

In the article he predicts that the Democrats will be moving to allowing more drilling and points to the XL pipeline as an example. News flash for him, Obama just vetoed it and no one is predicting enough Democrats will vote for it to override that veto. Mexico does have oil but it will be years before any meaningful production increase will occur and its total reserves will not be enough to meet the world’s needs for two years, if they could be produced all at once. I would like to know how long he had been predicting lower prices and how much they went up while he was predicting falls, not just his one prediction.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 08:06:46

Why would Mexico need this if they are about to be swimming in crude?

http://www.businessinsider.com/senators-considering-us-oil-deal-with-mexico-2015-2

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 07:56:45

Actually, in a post that is about to appear I said reserves when I meant resources, if you only look at Mexico’s reserves it could fuel the world for less than four months:

http://www.globalfirepower.com/proven-oil-reserves-by-country.asp

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:31:47

LIQUIDATE

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 09:19:44

Still dropping, even as the supply glut continues to swell beyond record levels…

Oil Markets
Oil Prices Slip as U.S. Supplies Rise to Record
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles climbed for the seventh straight week
Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, seen at a November OPEC meeting, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in the Saudi city of Jazan that demand for oil is on the rise. Photo: Reuters
By Nicole Friedman and Georgi Kantchev
Updated Feb. 25, 2015 11:07 a.m. ET

Oil futures held losses Wednesday as weekly inventory data showed U.S. crude supplies at a new record high.

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles rose for the seventh straight week, gaining 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Stockpiles are at the highest level ever in EIA weekly data going back to August 1982.

U.S. oil prices fell on the news, then pared losses as diesel futures climbed. Light, sweet oil for April delivery recently traded down 13 cents, or 0.3%, at $49.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 2.7 million barrels to 124.7 million barrels, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a 3.3 million-barrel weekly decrease.

 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 07:42:23

si se puede

denver post - hispanics key to skirting economic stagnation in colorado and u.s.

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27585524/hispanics-key-skirting-economic-stagnation-colorado-and-u

did somebody say permanent democrat supermajority?

Comment by rms
2015-02-25 07:57:46

Let’s show our willingness to change by decriminalizing graffiti.

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 08:16:09

Top story on Bloomberg website right now, pimping the Scamnesty

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/how-an-undocumented-immigrant-from-mexico-became-a-star-at-goldman-sachs

They don’t talk about the cost of emergency room visits, the rapes, the DUIs

Got MS-13?

Comment by butters
2015-02-25 09:13:15

You have it backwards. Being a star banker at Goldman is a lot worse than being MS-13 gang member.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:20:16

But being a MS-13 gangster is good training for a GS position.

 
 
Comment by butters
2015-02-25 09:39:16

And she is cute. Good looking women are legal in every country, continent and universe. Tell us something we don’t know.

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Comment by rms
2015-02-26 01:53:22

Jeez, any diabetes in that family?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 07:51:37

“Get Ready For $10 Oil”

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/joSDlaUMhZyMiVyvMB4IkL/Get-ready-for-10-oil.html

Considering the mid-east is profitable at $6 a barrel and a globe full of excess oil capacity and falling demand, it won’t be long now.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 08:15:53

Ignoring sunk costs, oil sands in Canada has operating costs of $37 to 40 dollars and oil sands are the marginal barrel meeting demand along with shale oil. Include the development costs and oil sands need $100 a barrel to earn back the cost of capital. There is no $6 a barrel in the world including the Middle East, there use to be but it is gone, due to the EOR costs even the cheapest Middle East oil is in the high thirties low forties:

Reuters

CALGARY, Alberta – Oil sands cash flows will fall by $21 billion in the next two years, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a report on Tuesday, as low global petroleum prices make it less economical to extract bitumen from northern Alberta.

Canada’s oil sands hold the world’s third-largest proven crude reserves after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, but operating costs are among the highest globally, according to Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Callan McMahon.

Current operating costs reach $37 per barrel for thermal projects, in which steam is pumped underground to liquefy tarry bitumen so it can flow, and $40 per barrel for mining projects.

With benchmark U.S. crude trading around $50 a barrel, down from more than $100 in June, McMahon said the oil sands region’s cash flows would drop by $21 billion in 2015 and 2016 combined.

Producers including Suncor Energy Inc, Cenovus Energy Inc and MEG Energy have slashed 2015 capital expenditures in response to the oil price slump.

Wood Mackenzie estimates industry spending will drop by $1.5 billion over the next two years, down 4 percent from its fourth-quarter 2014 assumptions.

Related: In Canada’s oil sands, a boomtown starts feeling the chill

Even so, the consultancy forecasts only limited effects on production until 2017.

McMahon said production was unlikely to be shut in even if projects temporarily operate at a loss, while new ones scheduled to start up this year will go ahead because the investment has already been made.

“With the costs sunk, projects totalling 458,000 bpd of bitumen are set to start production in 2015-2016,” McMahon said.

Wood Mackenzie previously forecast peak bitumen production of 4 million barrels per day from the oil sands in 2020 but has now pushed that back to 2024.

On Monday, Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it was shelving plans to build the 200,000-bpd Pierre River oil sands mine in northern Alberta, the largest such project to be deferred.

Total SA and Statoil ASA also recently postponed big oil sands projects due to weak prices.

(Reporting by Nia Williams; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:29:43

Absolutely there is $5/bbl oil and it’s all in the Mideast and SA.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 08:46:11

The irony is, as the price of oil drops, so does the cost to produce it.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 08:58:47

Some costs but with shale oil and other projects like oil sands probably not the most important cost, the cost of capital. Since these projects are now perceived to be more risky, both the price and availability of capital has changed to the detriment of the producers. Without access to capital, no new shale oil wells are drilled or completed and since the wells deplete around 2/3 within six months production falls quickly . As I said before it is unlike previous gluts because it plays out at warp speed.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 09:22:16

Debt burdened producers are not competitive in a situation of overcapacity. They will be liquidated.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:20:17

And oil production will fall because of it.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 16:36:40

No, repayment of debt will fall because of it.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 08:48:26

Really, so Venezuela should be doing fine and so should Brazil? That is not what I am reading, I read pre-salt oil in Brazil costs $100 a barrel with all costs in and Venezuela production continues to fall since the massive investments needed to maintain production are not being made. If the communists were making even $55 a barrel profit, they could maintain their socialistic nation and even increase production.

Sorry the fall off in shale oil production which occurs this year brings us to $80 and the lack of new production due to oil sand project deferments which will hit in 2017 bring us to $100 by the end of 2016 because the market anticipates.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:55:00

If you can’t earn a profit with oil at $10/barrel, pump more. That’s the obvious answer and outcome.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:08:01

You lose on every barrel so you make it up with volume? That model does not even work for Amazon with non-finite goods. Right now, the shale oil producers are depleting their best wells, the wells after that will produce half the amount of oil per day and thus will need twice the price to operate for most of them that will be around $100 a barrel. Geology is destiny.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 09:14:01

What matters is price. And price is falling.

Update: Oil Falls Through $49 Floor; Now $50 Ceiling

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:33:49

I clicked on your link and it was up 20 cents a barrel. BTW. it is Brent that really sets the price of gasoline these days. About a month ago, it was almost the same price as WTI at around $45. Now, it is selling for almost $60 and if you go to the futures market it is $65. Almost half way to $80 and the oil production declines have not yet arrived but will within weeks. Expect both WTI and Brent to be increasing throughout the year with WTI closing the gap. The $50 ceiling is much like the glass ceiling someone’s talking point which ignores reality. Go to the pump and find your $10 oil, and if you do please tell me where to get my gas.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 09:47:57

I clicked on my link and it was down $65 a barrel and falling BTW.

Remember…. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 11:23:25

Gasoline is now up five cents a gallon, just today:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

 
Comment by measton
2015-02-25 12:43:18

I think we will overshoot on cutting production and Saudi Arabia will cut production at that time and maybe we can throw in a war.

That being said, we could also see total economic collapse and with that oil prices would collapse as well.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 12:58:02

We know. Lower prices is the end of the world. Right? RIGHT?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:17:09

Just checked the oil markets, it is amazing. The price for April is up by about $1.70 but the price for December is up about 1.80, WTI is now above $60 for December of 2015, ten dollars a barrel of contango, back up the oil tanker. If this holds, Brent will be closing in on $70 a barrel for December when the market opens tomorrow.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 14:00:01

Ironically, after escaping the blame for many of the things he has done to raise the price of oil such as destabilizing Libya, Syria and Iraq, Obama will probably be blamed for soaring gasoline prices due to his veto of the XL pipeline. Of course, the immediate rise will have virtually nothing to do with the veto, but the public likes simple stories with simple conclusions. Explaining how Rice and Hillary took 1.5 million barrels of oil off the market in Libya and that is the reason for high gasoline prices throughout most of the Obama presidency is difficult, the XL veto is simple to understand.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 11:22:35

“There is $5/bbl oil and it’s all in the Mideast”
Saudi Oil Minister, Iham Adikweed 1972

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 08:42:45

The market for acetylene is going to be strong for quite some time.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:47:33

Whats used iron going for these days? Not much.

Let’s get the wheels on this deflation bus rolling and get these massively inflated prices down to much lower levels. The economy needs it.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 09:21:17

How did you come up with your $80/bbl prediction for December 2015? CME futures are under $60; is your crystal ball smarter than the futures market?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:43:51

Obviously, I think oil will return to its cost of production faster than the consensus of the futures market. But there are a lot of traders that share my view and there are traders that probably think oil will trade lower than $60, that is what makes a market. If the market consensus price was infallible it would not have been predicting $100 oil for December 2014 in July of last year.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:01:02

If you think oil is going to return to its cost of production then oil has a long way to fall.

 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 11:11:15

Considering the mid-east is profitable at $6 a barrel

Not even close to break even at $6. The break-even on the Mid-East oil itself is in the mid-20’s and the real break even is much higher for the countries.

http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/53712e4f69bedde31684d4c3-854-673/screen%20shot%202014-05-12%20at%203.56.27%20pm.png

Granted a lot of the spending is necessary, and the region so far has been better at eschewing the types of white elephant projects that marked the 1970s oil boom, all the largess has still pushed break-even points markedly higher.

The United Arab Emirates now needs oil prices above about $75 a barrel to break-even, according to the IMF. Saudi Arabia needs $80. Iraq’s break-even is now just below $100. At $140 a barrel, Iran’s is already almost half again the baseline oil price the IMF is projecting.

wsj

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 11:14:35

Negative Lola. They’re profitable at $6/barrel.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 11:52:14

Maybe the above figures reflect what they “need” to balance their bloated national budgets.

As we see so often in articles about Real Estate, it’s a kernel of truth with a bushel of BS.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 11:52:07

The United Arab Emirates now needs oil prices above about $75 a barrel to break-even, according to the IMF. Saudi Arabia needs $80. Iraq’s break-even is now just below $100. At $140 a barrel, Iran’s is already almost half again the baseline oil price the IMF is projecting.

The market does not really care about these numbers because it is really like the homeowner saying I paid x for the house and put y in improvements so I need to get at least z (x and y) for my house. The needs of the oil producers only matters if there failure to provide the welfare benefits results in a revolution that impacts their ability to supply oil. Only the full cost of the production is important not the government’s need for revenue.

But the market does care about the marginal cost of a barrel of oil. The middle east alone cannot supply the world’s demand. Thus, it will be the high cost areas that will set the price of oil and for shale oil that price is about $80 and for oil sands that is about $100. Since the world needs the production from both these sources to meet demand prices need to recover to those levels, it is that simple. Oil sands has a lag of about two years after prices crater and shale oil only a few months before the lower price impacts production.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 12:10:51

Saudi Arabia needs $80. Iraq’s break-even is now

The market does not really care about these numbers because it is really like the homeowner saying I……

Of course the market doesn’t care about those numbers, but the oil producers care about those numbers and those numbers are a big factor when OPEC sits down to discuss production numbers and the market definitely cares about those numbers.

That was the connection.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 12:26:26

Of course the market doesn’t care about those numbers, but the oil producers (The Individual Countries) care about those numbers…..

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 12:59:13

Saudi Arabia break even is $5/bbl.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:24:20

Saudi Arabia break even is $5/bbl.

If the value of the dollar was still what it was in 1913 and could buy the same amount of gold.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 08:20:52

Victims of Released Criminal Immigrants to Testify Against Obama Policies

by Joel Gehrke February 24, 2015 7:17 PM

Family members of people who were murdered by illegal immigrants after those immigrants had previously been detained and released pursuant to President Obama’s policies will testify before House lawmakers Wednesday morning.

The testimony is intended to illustrate a pattern of the Department of Homeland Security releasing criminal immigrants rather than deporting them, according to a Republican congressman who said that DHS had released 36,000 convicted criminal illegal immigrants since 2013.

“Of those 36,000, already now 1,000 of them have already been convicted of new crimes,” says the lawmaker. “These are people who have gone through the court system, even. And yet, rather than them get repatriated, they’re released, and now there are new victims because of the recklessness of the policy.”

With that in mind, a House Oversight and Government Reform panel will hear from Jamiel Shaw, whose son was murdered by a gang member in the country illegally, and Michael Ronnebeck, whose nephew Grant was allegedly murdered by a man who faced deportation but was released by U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement.

“We want Grant’s death to be a force for change and reform in the immigration policies of this great nation,” Michael Ronnebeck says in prepared testimony obtained by National Review, after detailing how ICE released the alleged murderer twice: once, after after he pled guilty to a burglary, and a second time when he was waiting for a deportation hearing.

“I am asking you, our elected scholars, lawyers, and community leaders, to make these changes; to rise above your political differences, to set aside your personal interests, and to use your resources to make sensible immigration reform a reality in the coming months, so that tragedies like this might not ever occur again,” Ronnebeck says in the prepared remarks.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/414354/victims-released-criminal-immigrants-testify-against-obama-policies-joel-gehrke

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 08:32:05

The 2014 Souper Bowl Coke Commercial, “America Is Beautiful”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=443Vy3I0gJs

Comment by rms
2015-02-25 08:54:21

‘lil something for everyone.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 08:35:31

“Ukraine Bonds Fall To 40 Cents IN dollar As Sell-Off Grips”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/23/ukraine-bonds-idUSL5N0VX26G20150223

Sell off in overleveraged assets just getting underway now. And remember…. He who liquidates first, lasts.

 
Comment by Concerned Floridian
Comment by Dman
2015-02-25 09:09:58

Wow. As if hurricanes weren’t enough of a reason…

Mary Shanklin, Orlando Sentinel
8:42 pm, February 24, 2015

WINTER SPRINGS — Shirley Lofgren, 85, is being forced to sell the sun-filled, waterfront condo she and her husband bought nine years ago for less than a third of the $217,000 they paid for it.

The sale is allowed under a “condominium termination” law passed by the Legislature in 2007.

“Nobody can believe this is legal — that they can just take your home and they’ll give you what they want to give you,” said the former Chicago resident, whose husband now lives in a nearby Alzheimer’s treatment center.

Rep. Chris Sprowls, R-Clearwater, said Lofgren and condo owners across Florida are being “divested” of their own homes.

Under the law, developers must get an appraisal to determine the value of a home. But Sprowls said owners are left with little negotiating leverage.

“In this situation, these people are not being permitted to stay in their homes, and that’s just wrong,” said Sprowls, who has proposed a reform bill that would pay relocation fees and above-market value for condo owners who live in their units.

The law, passed in order to reinvigorate stalled condo projects, lets developers take title to condos when only 20 percent of the units are in the hands of individual owners.

Throughout the state since the law was passed, developers and investors have used the condo-termination law to take ownership of more than 11,000 condominiums in 160 condo complexes, according to records from the state Department of Business and Professional Regulation. In Central Florida, Enders Place at Baldwin Park, Conway Forest, Esplanade Condos, Harbor Beach, Summerlin at Winter Park and Harbor Bay Retirement Village are among the condominium projects that have gone through a wholesale change of ownership

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 09:16:35

You know, one of the first lessons of the bubble to be ignored was that condos are a box of air with an HOA fee. It’s not even real estate.

Comment by oxide
2015-02-25 09:50:35

I’m trying to discourage a co-worker from buying a condo. He just started a nearly unbreakable 2-year lease so he’s not going to pull a trigger any time soon. He has big toys and wants a small garden, so I suspect he’ll eventually buy a townhouse.

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Comment by Bluto
2015-02-25 10:14:21

From what I’ve read and heard toys can be a BIG problem if living in a condo or anywhere with a HOA, many have been hassled over trivial matters. I wouldn’t deal with a HOA anyway but do have a couple of classic vehicles I tinker with, do a little welding, woodwork, etc. and no way I’m going to be in a position where some pencilneck can tell me what I can and cannot do in my garage or driveway.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Concerned Floridian
2015-02-25 08:44:57

test

Comment by goedeck
2015-02-25 14:27:37

You passed with flying colors.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 09:03:19

Surge in Chinese housebuying spurs global backlash

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:16:02

The Chinese have money they have not even spent yet from China Daily:

BEIJING - China’s retail sales for the week-long Spring Festival holiday continued to grow steadily as businesses rushed to take advantage of the nationwide shopping spree, data from the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) showed on Tuesday.

Shops and restaurants across the country pocketed 678 billion yuan ($111.1 billion) in sales volume, up 11 percent from last year’s holiday period, the MOC said in an online statement.

Sales of traditional festival-related goods saw rapid growth, but that of high-end gifts such as tobacco and liquor cooled due to the government’s ongoing austerity campaign, according to the ministry.

As a bright spot in the consumption market, many businesses have launched promotional events through social media forums such as Weibo and WeChat to boost sales.

Meanwhile, falling gold prices boosted jewelry sales, with the Sheep-themed accessories most favored by consumers. Major jewelry stores in Shanghai reported daily sales of over 200,000 yuan during the period.

In the catering market, fair-price family reunion dinners stood out as businesses cut prices to cater to the masses amid the austerity campaign.

The Spring Festival, or Chinese Lunar New Year, which fell on Feb 19 this year, is traditionally a time for family reunions. Businesses experience a boom during the period as people swarm to shops and restaurants.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 09:17:54

‘Sheep-themed accessories most favored’

Well that’s ironic.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 09:49:11

true dat, but while it may get our goat, we are the biggest sheep.

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Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 09:09:01

“You will refer to isssssues and math people”

This Agenda 21 coached Common Core School Board Chair has been well schooled in how to deal with right wing extremists.
————————————————————————-
Video of the Day – Watch as Florida Parents are Treated Like Children for Questioning School Curriculum

Take a look at how contemptuously and dismissively these parents’ concerns are dealt with at the Collier Country School Board Workshop

by Michael Krieger | Liberty Blitzkrieg | February 25, 2015

A Liberty Blitzkrieg reader who is a resident of Naples, Florida recently sent me a note highlighting a video in which he, and several other concerned parents, were reprimanded and treated like little children in a School Board Workshop as a result of them expressing concerns about school curriculum.

In order to give you some background on the issue, see the Letter to the Editor he wrote to the Naples Daily News on 1/28 to say what he was prevented from saying at the 1/20 School Board Workshop. Letter reprinted below:

Patton the cause

The controversy behind the recent parents’ review of school textbooks lays squarely at the feet of Superintendent Kamela Patton.

Specifically, Collier County School Board Policy 2240 reads, “Furthermore, the Superintendent shall prepare administrative procedures detailing the manner in which students and parents will be adequately informed, each year, regarding their right to inspect instructional materials, and the procedure for completing such an inspection.”

By failing to prepare procedures to implement Board Policy 2240, Patton created the perception the textbook review was a nighttime Watergate-style break-in masterminded by conservative political operative and School Board member G. Gordon Lichter.

I examined seventh-grade “Civics in Practice” and it contained numerous factual inaccuracies. For example, on Page 100 it states, “The Constitution can be changed in two ways; formally by Amendment, and informally by Government.” This notion of dictatorship is enhanced by eighth-grade textbook “United States History,” which states on Page 185, “The President issues Executive Orders. These commands have the power of law.”

While some called us book-burning Nazis, Page 274 of “Civics in Practice” states, “Citizens must be alert to propaganda” and glittering generalities is a “type of propaganda which often uses words such as freedom and patriotism.” This world government indoctrination is augmented on Page 425, where a geographical map of North America eliminates the United States, and places our great nation in nine new “cultural nations.”

For pointing this out, one public speaker at the School Board textbook workshop called us “narrow-minded, racist Bible-thumpers.”

Thank you, Superintendent Patton.

The author has assured me that there is absolutely zero racist or religious angle to any of his concerns, and that this is being shamelessly injected into the argument due to an inability to debate the actual concerns.

*As a disclaimer, I am not well versed in the intricacies of this debate, nor have I personally reviewed Collier County school materials. I welcome and encourage open debate in the comment section.

Without further ado, take a look at how contemptuously and dismissively these parents’ concerns are dealt with at the Collier Country School Board Workshop.

First Amendment Violated by Collier County School Board at 1/20 …
http://www.youtube.com/…1&fs=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent - 15k -

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 09:23:58

Video of the Day – Watch as Florida Parents are … - Liberty Blitzkrieg
libertyblitzkrieg.com/…/ - 71k - Cached - Similar pages
22 hours ago …

 
Comment by Clubber Lang
2015-02-25 09:24:17

Strait out of Mao’s playbook…start with the children.

Communism will only work if there is no United States constitution.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 09:30:50

To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.

— Voltaire

 
Comment by butters
2015-02-25 09:44:57

Fascism seems to be working well with the constitution, why not communism?

 
 
Comment by Dman
2015-02-25 11:14:11

“For pointing this out, one public speaker at the School Board textbook workshop called us “narrow-minded, racist Bible-thumpers.”

And I’ll bet you that the people outraged by the school curriculum are the same ones that want to force small children to pray in school, because narrow-minded, racist Bible-thumpers hate the government unless they can use it to push their religion on everyone else.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 11:55:00

“are the same ones that want to force small children to pray in school, because narrow-minded, racist Bible-thumpers hate the government unless they can use it to push their religion on everyone else.”

Saul Alinsky’s 12 Rules for Radicals

* RULE 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions.

* RULE 12: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.” Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions. (This is cruel, but very effective. Direct, personalized criticism and ridicule works.)

Comment by Dman
2015-02-25 12:23:06

What would Saul Alinsky say about someone who constantly posts stories about appropriately named phony scandals to try to paint the president as somehow illegitimate? The paint being used wouldn’t be some shade of brown, would it?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:10:48

Yes, because anyone that is critical of Obama is a racist. No one can oppose him for the same reasons they opposed Carter.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 15:32:55

“constantly posts stories about appropriately named phony scandals”

Matthew Boyle
6/20/12

President Barack Obama has asserted executive privilege over documents pertaining to Operation Fast and Furious. The move followed Attorney General Eric Holder’s last-second request for him to do so, ahead of a scheduled House oversight committee vote to begin contempt of Congress proceedings against Holder.

Obama granted the 11th-hour request after negotiations between Holder and the committee’s chairman, Rep. Darrell Issa, fell apart again on Tuesday evening after a 20-minute meeting. Holder had agreed beforehand that he would provide internal DOJ documents to Issa ahead of the meeting. He did not bring the documents. On Tuesday evening, Issa gave him one final chance to provide the documents before the 10 a.m. scheduled vote to hold Holder in contempt.

Holder again did not provide the documents to Congress. Then, on Wednesday morning, minutes before the meeting, it was announced Obama had agreed to assert executive privilege over those documents.

“The assertion of executive privilege raises monumental questions,” Grassley said. “How can the President assert executive privilege if there was no White House involvement? How can the President exert executive privilege over documents he’s supposedly never seen? Is something very big being hidden to go to this extreme? The contempt citation is an important procedural mechanism in our system of checks and balances. The questions from Congress go to determining what happened in a disastrous government program for accountability and so that it’s never repeated again.”

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 15:47:03

Keith Koffler is a racist who should be sealed under executive privilege like the documents pertaining to Operation Fast and Furious.

“constantly posts stories about appropriately named phony scandals”

Jul 3, 2013

Here is a list of 20, as documented by veteran White House reporter Keith Koffler):

1. IRS targets Obama’s enemies: The IRS targeted conservative and pro-Israel groups prior to the 2012 election. Questions are being raised about why this occurred, who ordered it, whether there was any White House involvement and whether there was an initial effort to hide who knew about the targeting and when.

2. Benghazi: This is actually three scandals in one: The failure of administration to protect the Benghazi mission; the changes made to the talking points in order to suggest the attack was motivated by an anti-Muslim video; and the refusal of the White House to say what President Obama did the night of the attack.

3. Keeping an eye on The Associated Press: The Justice Department performed a massive cull of Associated Press reporters’ phone records as part of a leak investigation.

4. Rosengate: The Justice Department suggested that Fox News reporter James Rosen is a criminal for reporting about classified information and subsequently monitored his phones and emails.

5. Potential Holder perjury I: Attorney General Eric Holder told Congress he had never been associated with “potential prosecution” of a journalist for perjury when in fact he signed the affidavit that termed Rosen a potential criminal.

6. The ATF “Fast and Furious” scheme: Federal agencies allowed weapons from U.S. gun dealers to “walk” across the border into the hands of Mexican drug dealers. The ATF summarily lost track of scores of those weapons, many of which were used in crimes, including the December 2010 killing of Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry.

7. Potential Holder perjury II: Holder told Congress in May 2011 that he had just recently heard about the Fast and Furious gun walking scheme when there is evidence he may have known much earlier.

8. Sebelius demands payment: HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius solicited donations from companies HHS might regulate. The money would be used to help her sign up uninsured Americans for Obamacare.

9. The Pigford scandal: An Agriculture Department effort that started as an attempt to compensate black farmers who had been discriminated against by the agency but evolved into a gravy train delivering several billion dollars in cash to thousands of additional minority and female farmers who probably didn’t face discrimination.

13. Solyndra: Republicans charged the Obama Administration funded and promoted its poster boy for green energy despite warning signs the company was headed for bankruptcy. The administration also allegedly pressed Solyndra to delay layoff announcements until after the 2010 midterm elections.

14. AKA Lisa Jackson: Former EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson used the name “Richard Windsor” when corresponding by email with other government officials, drawing charges she was trying to evade scrutiny.

15. The New Black Panthers: The Justice Department was accused of using a racial double standard in failing to pursue a voter intimidation case against Black Panthers who appeared to be menacing voters at a polling place in 2008 in Philadelphia.

16. Waging war all by myself: Obama may have violated the Constitution and both the letter and the spirit of the War Powers Resolution by attacking Libya without Congressional approval.

18. AKPD not A-OK: The administration paid millions to the former firm of then-White House adviser David Axelrod, AKPD Message and Media, to promote passage of Obamacare. Some questioned whether the firm was hired to help pay Axelrod $2 million AKPD owed him.

19. Sestak, we’ll take care of you: Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel used Bill Clinton as an intermediary to probe whether former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) would accept a prominent, unpaid White House advisory position in exchange for dropping out of the 2010 primary against former Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.).

20. I’ll pass my own laws: Obama has repeatedly been accused of making end runs around Congress by deciding which laws to enforce, including the decision not to deport illegal immigrants who may have been allowed to stay in the United States had Congress passed the “Dream Act.”

With three-and-a-half years of Obama’s second term remaining, there is no telling how many more scandals will erupt.

However, it’s important to note that many of these are not “scandals” in the typical sense, but rather the machinations of an imperial president who seeks to “rule” over his “subjects,” without their consent.

Don’t expect Obama to suddenly grow a conscience and constrain himself, meaning this list is destined to grow larger.

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/041056_obama_scandals_benghazi_fast_and_furious.html#ixzz3SnSdFGgl

 
 
 
 
Comment by Concerned Floridian
2015-02-25 15:05:56

There is plenty of misinformation about Florida’s curriculum in public school. We don’t teach religion (christianity-judaism), but we teach Islam!

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/9-investigates-dad-protests-islamic-lessons-school/nj7Ny/

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 18:23:26

“The Constitution can be changed in two ways; formally by Amendment, and informally by Government.”

Interesting. “Informal Amendment” is a misnomer but the above is basically true under a couple of situations. Google “Informal Amendment”.

“The President issues Executive Orders. These commands have the power of law.”

True too if the Executive Orders are within their legal boundaries.

But that school board was way out of line in their behavior at that meeting. I don’t know enough about the propaganda part to comment.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-02-26 00:00:38

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 09:09:01

Video of the Day – Watch as Florida Parents are Treated Like Children for Questioning School Curriculum
libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/02/24/video-of-the-day-watch-as-florida-parents-are-treated-like-children-for-questioning-school-curriculum/

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-02-25 09:14:19

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-24 13:05:53

[...]

‘Rent-Seeking’ does not mean renting out your house or renting a house or real estate.

DEFINITION of ‘Rent-Seeking’ When a company, organization or individual uses their resources to obtain an economic gain from others without reciprocating any benefits back to society through wealth creation.

So by that definition, rent-seeking pretty much only covers gaining advantage in the market via government intervention, right?

And the only fix for it is to outlaw all lobbying.

Ok, I can support that.

Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-25 09:46:15

Net neutrality is a good example of rent-seeking. A handful of large telecom and content providers are trying to gain market advantage over smaller competitors by lobbying the government to carve out a disproportionate share of internet bandwidth for their exclusive use.

Other examples of rent-seeking include bailouts, subsidies, tax shelters, trade restrictions or barriers when these are sought by lobbyists to obtain competitive or financial advantage by means other than participating in the marketplace.

 
 
Comment by Bring Back the WPA
2015-02-25 09:18:22

Ponder this: many in Congress say they stand for small government, state’s rights, individual freedom, limiting government power. Yet these same congresspeople voted for the Keystone pipeline bill, which endorses TransCanada’s use of eminent domain to force rural landowners to sell property to a foreign corporation against their will. Your “small government” at work!

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 09:50:47

’small government’ loves:

big prison industrial complex
big war on drugs
big crop subsidies
big oil
big pharma
big carried interest exemptions
big nsa spying on americans
and most importantly, big war!

Comment by butters
2015-02-25 10:32:50

They love big anything. It’s a lie that they are for anything small.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:35:20

They especially love throngs of empty pockets screaming for more stuff.

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Comment by SUGuy
2015-02-25 09:40:10

These are houses in upscale sought after neighborhoods and with locally the best school districts. The price drops are quite high.

Please take a look.

4257 Fraser Fir Dr, Manlius, NY 13104

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4257-Fraser-Fir-Dr-Manlius-NY-13104/98109375_zpid/
.The previous owners paid around 669K. This new house sold for 410K recently

Another example

8310 Decoy Run, Manlius NY
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8310-Decoy-Run-Manlius-NY-13104/31755365_zpid/

4602 Widgeon Path, Manlius, NY 13104
5 beds 4.2 baths 4,184 sqft
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4602-Widgeon-Path-Manlius-NY-13104/31755144_zpid/

Can we say CRATER. I think we can. Btw the widgeon path sold again for around 400K. Flippers are running scared.

Comment by Larry Littlefield
2015-02-25 12:29:04

Metro Syracuse. The only metro area in NY state that lost jobs last year.

The prior generation got all the money. Who are they going to sell to? The guy earning $10 per hour and hoping for $20 someday? Or the public employee, the majority of whose compensation is payable when they retire to Florida?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 12:33:58

That’s going to leave a mark.

 
Comment by rms
2015-02-26 03:05:36

“Btw the widgeon path sold again for around 400K.”

Gotta love paying that $25k/yr in property taxes. Insanity!

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 10:12:35

Confucius say:

“Wen yu hav slump………. is hard tu sel dump….”

China Readies Measures to Counter Housing Market Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/china-said-to-prepare-measures-to-counter-housing-market-slump

Bloomberg) — China is preparing measures to counter a housing market slump and will roll them out if the economy needs support, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The government could reduce down-payment requirements for second-home purchases, the people said, declining to be identified as the information isn’t public. Another possible step would be to let homeowners sell properties without paying sales tax after two years, down from five years.

China’s new-home prices posted a record year-on-year decline in January,

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 10:47:45

Down about 5% year on year, after 20% gains year after year, Brazil should be as lucky. BTW, some cities are already showing month on month gains and Chinese wages are still going up around ten per cent a year. China may have overdone supply side economics by investing too much but it is still better off than Brazil that pushed demand side economics and has now been dead in the water for years and unable to compete with China since China has modern factories and Brazil has old obsolete factories.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 11:38:14

China may have overdone supply side economics by investing too much but it is still better off than Brazil that pushed demand side economics and has now been dead in the water for years and unable to compete with China since China has modern factories and Brazil has old obsolete factories.

True. It was time for Brazil to push the Supply-side for awhile. That’s why I was sad Neves did not win.

Neves would win today big time. (But no matter the current economic numbers, Brazilians wouldn’t change places with the Chinese people.)

I am an economic pragmatist, contrary to what those on the far right believe. USA is pushing SupplySide way too much and Brazil needs to push the supply side now.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 12:19:44

China may have overdone supply side economics by investing too much but it is still better off than Brazil that pushed demand side

To be more clear, when I said “True” I meant Brazil should push Supply-Side economics now, I did not mean that China was Better off than Brazil, they are not imo because there are a lot more things involved in peoples’ lives than next years rate of economic growth.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 12:59:12

Like crime rates particularly homicide rates?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 13:34:02

Like crime rates particularly homicide rates?

Including everything under the sun.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 15:38:47
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-02-25 15:59:11

At least Brazil has strong pollution laws, maybe not:

Wow.
I can pull crappy stuff about China all day long. But it’s childish.

 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-02-25 10:48:16

Massive excess supply and collapsing demand.

Housing and oil.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 11:59:12

and everything in between.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 11:55:56

As if we needed further proof that the world has gone mad…

Now you can get

“bitcoin derivatives, and trades financial products like options and futures which are directly linked to the price of the cryptocurrency.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102454375

 
Comment by Michael Viking
2015-02-25 12:20:55

Now and then I’ve mentioned I have a cousin who “owned” a home and wasn’t living in it. They were renting it out to other folks. Just heard that they were finally served, or are in the process of being served, with a foreclosure notice. I probed more deeply and found they haven’t made a mortgage payment in 6 years. At least 2 of those they rented it out while they lived someplace else. They’re now thinking there’s some kind of 6 year statute of limitations where the house is now theirs due to squatter-laws and they’re in contact with a real estate lawyer.

He also said their mortgage has changed hands around 7 times during this time period and he thinks that’s why nobody’s ever actually foreclosed. The current mortgage holder is working hard now because it’s been 6 years and 28 days and maybe there’s a 30 day grace period.

Must be nice to live rent free for 6 years. Any idea if he’s close to being right about them getting the property since they haven’t been served a foreclosure notice in over 6 years?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-02-25 12:37:00

If owners live away and the bank has been paying the taxes, who is the squatter?

Comment by Michael Viking
2015-02-25 14:04:31

My cousin bought the house using a Countrywide mortgage. At some point they quit paying. They lived there for three years without making any mortgage payments. Then they moved out and the son lived there while renting out the most of the house to some guy. After two years of that they kicked out the renter and moved back in. Now they’re back living there and have been for about 2 years. So far it’s been 6 years since they’ve made a mortgage payment.

I didn’t ask about taxes and I see people are asking about it. I’ll ask him!

The laugher is I found this out because he wants to rent one of my units. This is how I found out more on his situation. I told him it didn’t appear like he was a good tenant. Luckily we could both laugh about it vs. him getting mad at me.

 
 
Comment by tj
2015-02-25 13:02:08

Any idea if he’s close to being right about them getting the property since they haven’t been served a foreclosure notice in over 6 years?

my guess is no. he’s talking about adverse possession. it must be actual, open and notorious.

usually the time period is 7 years, but i believe it can vary from state to state. he must be paying taxes on it also from the beginning.

he needs an attorney, but i’m thinking it would be a waste of money.

Comment by tj
2015-02-25 13:05:41

sorry Michael, i should have read what you wrote more carefully.

i don’t think it’s adverse possession. i can’t say what he should do.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 13:03:06

Adverse possession laws vary too much from state to state to help you. At common law, the adverse possession period was seven years but most states added the requirement that the person in possession must be paying the taxes.

 
 
Comment by measton
2015-02-25 14:19:51

We rank 45th in electoral integrity

salon.com/2015/02/25/americas_election_nightmare_how_voter_id_gerrymandering_fundraising_made_us_a_laughingstock/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 15:03:23

This will end well, I’m sure!

ft dot com
China
February 25, 2015 1:14 pm
Surge in Chinese housebuying spurs global backlash
Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Prospective buyers wait in line to inspect a house for sale in the suburb of Eastwood in Sydney, Australia, on Saturday, Jan. 11, 2014. Purchases by locally resident Chinese and those from mainland China are inflating housing bubbles in and around Sydney, where prices in some suburbs have surged as much as 27 percent in the past year.
Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg©Bloomberg

Australia plans to impose a new tax on foreign property buyers after Chinese investment in Australian real estate soared 60 per cent last year, in the latest sign of a gathering international backlash against wealthy Chinese property investors.

The move, which came after locals complained about being priced out of the housing market, follows the introduction of similar, more punitive, taxes in Hong Kong and Singapore aimed primarily at discouraging the flood of mainland Chinese money into those markets. Governments in all three locations say that the new taxes are not directed at any single nationality.

In the past year, mainland Chinese buyers have become the biggest single group of foreign investors in residential property in the US, UK and Australia, as well as in key cities in other western countries, according to real estate brokers.

In the year to March 2014, mainland Chinese buyers accounted for nearly a quarter of all foreign purchasers of residential real estate in the US, spending about $22bn, compared with $12.8bn a year earlier, according to the US National Association of Realtors. Canadians, the second biggest group, spent $13.8bn in the same period.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-02-25 15:29:31

So Ben’s identical link posted earlier in the day was not good enough for you?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 17:14:06

Repetition is the mother of learning.

Surely you understand that, given the repetitiveness of your posts.

 
 
 
 
Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 18:05:57

Skip the Bud Light ad and go to the vid

Graham Parker - Local Girls:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taXvBivGcMo

Comment by boots on the ground
2015-02-25 18:50:38

More advertising, just mute it and wait for the vid

Blur - Chemical World (1993)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc0idORNd10

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-02-25 19:12:58

Bagholders who bought into the Washington DC housing bubble may be SOL.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/02/25/investors-left-in-the-cold-in-washington-dc-real-estate/

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-02-25 19:17:03

He asked what that meant. I said, “It means you overpaid.”

He went silent. Then I heard him whisper to his partner, “She says we overpaid.”

I asked what due diligence he’d done to determine that the property was worth $500,000 when he bought it.

“That’s what they were asking,” he said.

There are more out there like him. Many more. I guarantee it. When some areas of the country start crashing, we’re going to find out, again, just how many speculators there were.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 22:50:45

Won’t the Fed most likely step in again to prop up housing, same as in early 2012?

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-02-25 19:45:14

How do you deal with a noisy neighbor?

The college age kids that moved in down below me have gotten more brazen these past months by slamming the apartment unit front door every time they enter and exit. They also slam the door to their apartment . The weird part is they are coming and going many times an hour through the doors. They have friends over and I swear they must be playing video games or something because they are hooting a lot.

This is a 3 floor unit and I live on the third floor. There is a senior citizen on the first floor and she related to me her disapproval of the kids’ behavior. I see her very infrequently, but with the amount of snow we have gotten the past month, I see and talk with her when moving her car for the plowtruck sometimes. I have yet to contact the apartment people about the mood of annoyance that I am feeling. I don’t care if the kids have a social life but the door slamming is as if they they are brainless. I can only think they are spoiled brats or something. There are 6 units in the building and the tenants across from the noisemakers are getting the brunt of the noise.

Talk about hell. Crazy as it might be, but this could motivate me to rent a house or just GTFO of Maine.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-25 21:07:39

Have you or any of your neighbors asked the college age kids to stop slamming the doors and try to keep the hooting down?

If not I would try that in a non confrontational manner.

Something like…

Hey man how’s it going. I’m not sure you’re even aware of it but when the doors in this building slam it sounds like a small bomb going off in the other peoples apartments, if you could let your buddies know that I would really appreciate it.

And I hate to even bring this up and It’s not the end of the world but if you could tell whoever is hooting when they are playing their video games we can hear that pretty clearly too.

At this point I might try to segue in to something like…

How do you like living here or do you think this GD snow is ever going to stop.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-02-25 22:27:50

“Have you or any of your neighbors asked the college age kids to stop slamming the doors and try to keep the hooting down?’

I’ve thought about politely taping a note to the front door of the building. Probably will get ignored….

Don’t even want to confront the kids. They don’t even have the common sense to be quiet. I don’t think they would have the etiquette or manners to deal with being told they are in the wrong.

I’ll talk with the apartment management next week. After that, I am out of here next year. Crazy, but the straw that breaks a camel’s back is seeing when a place has lost its charm. Maine really is a nice place to visit, but takes a toll on making ends meet.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-02-26 06:13:25

“Probably will get ignored….”

You never know until you try.

Anyway

Good luck

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-02-25 22:48:32

How many immediate female relatives (possibly to include self or spouse, parents, siblings or kids) would automatically vote for Hillary if she runs, just because of the prospect of getting a female president?

Among my immediate female family members, I would guess the number at five out of six. My spouse would be the sole exception.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-02-26 00:28:22

automatically vote for Hillary

Not a family member, but a visiting nurse, late thirties. After she expressed her enthusiasm for a woman president (she meant HC), I said fine, but not Hillary and told her why. She said, “Oh, I didn’t know…”

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-02-26 12:16:01

You Could Hear a Pin Drop During Father’s Devastating Testimony on Illegal Immigration: ‘Do Black Lives Really Matter?’

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/02/25/you-could-hear-a-pin-drop-during-fathers-devastating-testimony-on-illegal-immigration-do-black-lives-matter/

 
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