Bits Bucket for March 8, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
realtors are liars
check out this wind-loaded snow cornice the size of a school bus at center right on the ridge in the foreground (people with mortgages never get to see things like this)
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150307_101529_542-Glg0eXJn.jpg
region viii
One of the main reasons seniors leave the area for sunnier places
The snowiest place in America this year is a tiny town in Upstate New York
http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/03/snowiest_place_in_america_tug_hill_lake_ontario_upstate_new_york.html
check out snow depth webcams here:
http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm
FWIW, the snowpack in the Colorado Rockies is below average this year.
http://kdvr.com/2015/02/05/snowpack-below-normal-in-colorado-mountains/
“FWIW, the snowpack in the Colorado Rockies is below average this year.”
Ditto the Cascades. Some of the smaller irrigation districts are already predicting shortages later this summer.
You can say that again.
‘The Iraqi army’s first big attempt to roll back the Islamic State is going to be a violent mess. That’s the grim assessment of a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general, James Dubik, who oversaw the training of Iraqi soldiers in the final months of the eight-year U.S. occupation. Those troops fled when ISIS showed up last summer, stripping off their uniforms and abandoning millions of dollars’ worth of American weapons. “Yup,” Dubik says with a dry chuckle, “those were my guys.”
‘In the unlikely event that the Iraqi troops take Tikrit and then Mosul, someone will still have to remain in control of the latter’s one million residents. Right now, that job will go to a brigade of roughly 5,000 Sunni policemen who escaped from Mosul and are now being trained in Kurdistan.’
‘Dubik is skeptical of that aspect of the plan. “I’m doubtful that’s going to be sufficient,” he says. “That approach has not worked to date. It’s been tried a number of times in Iraq,” including when 100,000 U.S. troops, American airpower and an extensive intelligence network were there to support the Iraqis. “The police were inadequately trained and equipped,” he adds. “Same approach was tried in Afghanistan, where it failed miserably.”
‘In congressional testimony recently, Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. went beyond the usual litany of threats to say that terrorism trend lines were worse “than at any other point in history.” ‘The assessments reflect a pessimism that has descended on the U.S. counterterrorism community over the past year amid a series of discouraging developments. Among them are the growth of the Islamic State, the ongoing influx of foreign fighters into Syria, the collapse of the U.S.-backed government in Yemen and the downward spiral of Libya’s security situation. The latest complication came Saturday, when the terrorist group Boko Haram in Nigeria carried out a series of suicide bombings and reportedly declared its allegiance to the Islamic State.’
‘Speaking at a New York police terrorism conference, Michael Morell, former deputy director of the CIA, said he had come to doubt that he would live to see the end of al-Qaeda and its spawn. “This is long term,” he said. “My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”
What Morell is saying is they’ve already lost. What if FDR had said such a thing in 1941?
’someone will still have to remain in control of the latter’s one million residents’
How are a few thousand guys in pajama’s controlling a million people? They obviously have the support of the Sunni tribes. And if they have this support, this is a civil war, not a war against ISIS. The report goes on to say the US is basically counting on Shiite militia’s. Yep, that’s the Iranian backed guys that tend to massacre Sunni’s after they win. So we’re basically back to where we were several years ago. Pretending that we can manage a sectarian civil war in order to preserve national boundaries draw up by a Brit and Frenchman in the 1920’s.
This is when someone will say, like in Vietnam, ‘we just need to get in there and really kick some ass!’ The problem is we’re fighting a 4th generational war with a 3rd generation army. Yes, we finesse the situation with technology like drones. But the outcome in Yemen shows that is futile as well.
‘For months, the U.S. strategy has focused on Iraq, where American troops are training Iraqi security forces to fight ISIL, in part because the U.S. does not have a clear ally on the ground in Syria. But that may change as an American-led training program for Syrians gets underway. The U.S. and its coalition partners have screened at least 1,200 moderate Syrian rebels who could become recruits for the training effort based at facilities in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.’
‘The fight against ISIL in Syria is uniquely complex because the U.S. opposes both the extremists as well as the government and its forces.’
‘According to numerous reports, the Iranian Quds Force commander, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, was in Iraq directing Shiite militias in their fight against Islamic State militants. The total fighting force of Iranian-backed militias and Iraqi regular forces has been estimated at up to 30,000, making it the largest operation in Iraq since the U.S. sent more troops to that nation and began airstrikes there last year.’
‘About two-thirds of the force assembled in Tikrit is comprised of Shiite militiamen, Dempsey told senators. U.S. officials are cautiously hopeful that the Iranians and Shiites can help Iraqi forces expel the ISIL militants from Tikrit. But U.S. officials also worry that involvement of Iranians and Shiite militias in a major battle for a Sunni city could inflame the sectarian tensions that the militants exploit for political support.’
‘Carter cited reports suggesting that some Sunni tribal leaders are backing the military operation by the mostly Shiite force. “If that’s true, it is good news because it suggests that it is not purely a Shia-on-Sunni thing,” Carter said.’
Casual observer here,
It looks like Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri( Sadam’s cousin) is the one force who can put order to all this.
Wish we could quietly back him and,
Get the hell out of there
Israel has to name them and America will shoot them is our foreign policy. I might load up on defense contractor stocks if Jeb gets elected.
Or Hillary, cmon.
You are right I forgot about the biatch
Or Scott Walker. HillaryJebScott are all the same candidate, as we will soon enter the 5th Bush administration (by any other name). Already the shuffling zombies of the US electorate are dutifully lining up to pull the meaningless levers to determine which Wall Street marionette, neo-con stooge, and corporate statist will be ruling over them.
Already the shuffling zombies of the US electorate are dutifully lining up to pull the meaningless levers to determine which Wall Street marionette, neo-con stooge, and corporate statist will be ruling over them.
Beautifully put.
It appears that “Bibi” is a lot more popular with crazy neo-cons (and the imbeciles who voted for McCain) than he is with his own people.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/03/07/up-to-30000-fill-the-streets-of-tel-aviv-in-anti-netanyahu-rally/
I thought all he had to do was name Iran. Well he named them. Let’s get started.
“How are a few thousand guys in pajama’s controlling a million people?”
For one thing they are totally committed to a cause and are willing - eager even - to die for that cause.
Their opponents? Not so much.
Don’t worry, they’ll be dying soon enough.
“Don’t worry, they’ll be dying soon enough.”
And their dying, their heroic dying, will inspires others to join the cause so as to pick up the flag (or whatever symbol that is being used) and carry it forward.
Really, it doesn’t matter why people will willingly give away their lives for a cause, it only matters that they do willingly give away their lives for a cause.
All you have to do to win at this game is generate a cause that enormous numbers of people are willing to give away their lives for.
The more the merrier.
Wars may be fought with weapons, but they are won by men. It is the spirit of the men who follow and of the man who leads that gains the victory.
Cavalry Journal (September 1933)
Wars may be fought with weapons, but they are won by men. It is the spirit of the men who follow and of the man who leads that gains the victory.
Cavalry Journal (September 1933)
I’m sure the Japanese believed that, until the mushroom clouds appeared.
Yeah, I could imagine someone writing that before WW1, but that war demonstrated the importance of mobilizing a country’s factories in addition to its men.
“Yeah, I could imagine someone writing that before WW1, but that war demonstrated the importance of mobilizing a country’s factories in addition to its men”
So which middle east war have we won????
Wars may be fought with weapons, but they are won by men. It is the spirit of the men who follow and of the man who leads that gains the victory.
Cavalry Journal (September 1933)
I’m sure the Japanese believed that, until the mushroom clouds appeared.
The emperor was the one who made the decision to “surrender”, not the average Japanese of August 1945. The previous island-to-island fighting the US had been doing since 1942 gave plenty of evidence that most Japanese would have fought to the death rather than surrender. Even then, the Japanese surrender after two nuclear attacks on the home islands was not a sure thing. Some of the “palace guard” almost took over the emperor’s role so that they could assume his mantle. Since very, very few were able to access Hirohito’s august presence, it would have been possible for the military to knock off the imperial family and continue to speak in its behalf - who would have been in a position to know whether or not that was the case?
By the time Hiroshima was nuked, many other Japanese cities had been largely razed to the ground by US bombers, and the death toll of these conventional bombings was far greater than that of the atomic attacks. My opinion is that the bulk of the Japanese population would have resisted to the death, had their emperor so commanded, no matter how many nuclear bombs would have been dropped. But he did not.
I shudder to think of what would have ensued had Hirohito not surrendered. The US might well have decided not to invade the Japanese home islands and to simply nuke the population repeatedly from a safe distance until whatever resistance they could give out, no longer mattered.
‘willing - eager even - to die for that cause’
Some may be. But did you know they have salaries? How long would they fight if the sheiks in the GCC stopped sending money? BTW, there are ISIS allied ‘militia’s’ fighting the separatists in Ukraine now too. Chechens. Who’s doing the shocking and awing now?
Now you finally understand what Saddam Hussein offered Iraq. In 2002 my Jordanian friend said Hussein kept the pot from boiling over and we were crazy to mess with the region.
Tito did something similar in Yugoslavia.
Back when we had real statesmen at the helm, George Washington warned his countrymen not to “go abroad in search of monsters to slay.” Ron Paul understood that, but the zombified 95% of the electorate ensured that we’re doomed to go along with perpetually slaying an ever-proliferating rogues’ gallery of monsters abroad.
How are a few thousand guys in pajama’s controlling a million people?
Maybe they aren’t “controlling” them (the way we tried to control them); but rather they have their support.
“This is long term,” he said. “My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”
Why does Michael Morell think our children will spend their good money on regime change and nation building?
“Why does Michael Morell think our children will spend their good money on regime change and nation building?”
One way is to present the cause - to sell the cause - as something other than “regime change and nation building”.
Maybe try something like “We’ve got to fight them over there else we’ll have to fight them over here”.
Maybe try something like “We’ve got to fight them over there else we’ll have to fight them over here”.
Sounds like it’s time for another swaggering reborn Christian with a tall white cowboy hat pushing for Crusades v.3?
“Sounds like it’s time for another swaggering reborn Christian with a tall white cowboy hat pushing for Crusades v.3?”
Whatever works. You use what ever it is that works.
See my story below, due to our import of millions of Muslims, we may have to deal with Isis whether we want to or not. I hope it will not be nation building certainly not the naïve nation building practiced by Obama or W However, we may go back to the future and help leaders like we just deposed to come to power to deal with Islamic fascists.
This message sponsored by William Kristol
what do you propose we do now over there? I’m not being facetious and apologize if I am forgetting if you’ve said it before.
I certainly not in favor of any wars but the prospect of nuclear capability in the region does scare me.
what do you propose we do now over there?
I think he proposes that we mind our own business.
Within a three year window, allow all of the Israeli Jews to immigrate to the United States where they will have constitutionally protected freedom of religion
Those who choose to stay behind are on their own, and not another penny of American taxpayer dollars sent to the Middle East
Israel was a nice idea, but it’s time to pull the plug on that experiment
“what do you propose we do now over there?”
Luke 6:31New International Version (NIV)
31 Do to others as you would have them do to you.
or
American King James Version
Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot,
You pick unless you believe that Gods pets are exempt from their actions
Within a three year window, allow all of the Israeli Jews to immigrate to the United States where they will have .constitutionally protected freedom of religion
It would not change a thing, ISIS wants to conquer the world like the Koran commands not just Israel
The Israel in America thing is interesting and certainly not minding our own business.
I tend to like minding our own business, at least over the Isis nonsense as I think the terrorism threat is overblown. But I would not allow Iran or any other country like it to come close to getting nuclear capability.
Can’t the satellites pretty much figure out whether any sites are being used for that? No long war needed, just bombing of the nukes sites. And if they try it again? Maybe a harder hammer.
“Can’t the satellites pretty much figure out whether any sites are being used for that? No long war needed, just bombing of the nukes sites. And if they try it again? Maybe a harder hammer”
Wake up shallow and smell the reality. Nuclear technology is 70 years old. It’s no big deal for Iran to acquire it. But don’t let reality get in the way for your nuclear apartheid rants.
Yes, let Iran have nuclear bombs. Good idea.
they won’t! But they might want to stop their children and parents from being killed or slaves
Do you not know about the history between Muslims and Christians?
“My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”
Christian Zionists, your children and grandchildren first
“Christian Zionists, your children and grandchildren first”
+1 …’cause we’re busy looting your pension funds and national wealth.
I’d think this is all really a lot more about the military industrial complex needing to feed than Christian Zionists.
Wait, I thought it was about oil.
Isis is contained just like the sub-prime crisis:
VIENNA (AP) — Fighters from the Islamic State group attacked an oil field in Libya, killing several members of the security detail at the site and nine foreign workers are missing, European officials said Saturday.
Austrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin Weiss said the Friday afternoon attack occurred at the al-Ghani oil field, south of Sirte. Security teams retook the site, but nine foreign workers are unaccounted for, including one Austrian, one Czech and seven non-EU citizens.
No demands have been made by any group or individual for their return.
The Czech Foreign Ministry confirmed that a Czech national was missing after the attack. Ministry spokeswoman Michaela Lagronova said the ministry is in contact with the family of the missing person and is cooperating with Austria.
The Czech Foreign Ministry said one of its officials would fly to the region as soon as possible, while Austrian officials said Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz was conferring with high-ranking interior and defense ministry officials as well as the Austrian Embassy in Tunisia, which was overseeing Libyan affairs.
One of the officials said the attack had been on a site run by VAOS, an Austrian company that offers construction services to oil companies. Telephone calls to VAOS offices in Malta and in Libya weren’t answered late Saturday.
That’s right Dannyboy
It’s time to “take America back” and “restore our future”
The obvious “small government” solution to this is another trillion dollar war (borrowed from communist China)
And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links
The Iraqi army cannot win until it has a cool sounding “cartoon” name like its opponents.
Islamic Jihad
Party Of God
Rick Flair
The Iron Sheik
The Wonder Twins
Procol Harum
The Brothers Johnson
All the Iraqi army needs is a better marketing campaign.
“Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY.”
–Hermann Goering at the Nuremberg Trials
All empires fail eventually. They are bleed financially. But the old empires looted their colonies. The US sends them money.
Get ready for the “ISIS burns down the Reichstag” moment, because it’s coming
American taxpayers and voters, you are being emotionally manipulated
With Brian Williams and Bill O’Reilly doing a live stream on location.
Paper wealth is only an illusion.
How long can we keep increasing asset prices to make up for a poor economy?
I read the other day that people in the US are spending more eating out than at the grocery store. It was said this was the first time that had occurred.
I was looking over some commercial loan terms. We know there are a ton of multi-family units built or in the works. From what I can see, these aren’t being financed like houses. They have balloon payments a few years down the line. So the payments are structured low like a 20 year loan, but will have to be refinanced much sooner. Given that the returns are stretched thin, there is an awful lot riding on a low rate environment, not to mention the expectation that vacancies will stay low and rents increasing. It’s all sunny skies for these deals.
Multifamily construction loans tend to be short term in nature (36 to 48 months) and the ones I’m seeing are LIBOR plus a spread of about 180 to 225 basis points. During the construction phase the loan amount includes enough to fund its own interest.
The permanent loans to retire the construction loans indeed have a 5-, 7-, or 10-year balloon payment, especially if the loan is written with the intention of securitizing it into a new CMBS issue.
Wake Forest, NC Sale Prices Crater 8% As Sellers Slash Prices
http://www.zillow.com/wake-forest-nc/home-values/
“They have balloon payments a few years down the line.”
Oh yeah, there’s the Grecian mode again.
Spending more eating out for the first time. This is the answer whenever anyone asks, “well how did we used to be able to do things like educate the kids without 35 kids per classroom or police our society without SWAT teams for every city over 5000 population, or have libraries actually open on Sunday’s.”
We are silently spending a huge amount of money on the governmental equivalent of eating out more than half the time. In other words, doing things we don’t need to do. And yes, the military is a big part of it, but so are public unions.
Worst of all, 95% of the vegetables comprising the American electorate voted for this, the status quo.
Yes, I think things can be done better without all the dissembling. But as doom and gloom as I often am, there is a part of me that recognizes that from one perspective we do an incredible job objectively of feeding, clothing and entertaining the vast masses of people in this country particularly compared to 40 years ago.
Bigger houses, an incredible selection of food, availability to learn almost anything on the Internet on a 24/7 basis, iPads, computers, computer phones with voice recognition assistants through Siri or Google plus. People living longer, medical advances, safer cars, hundreds of TV channels not even including the Internet, the ability to stay in contact with family and friends realtime via email, facebook, Skype, and on and on.
Don’t worry Ben, it will be HUD to the rescue. /sarcasm
The other difference with multi-family construction is that much greater down payments are required.
Often times you need to put 25-30% down on the construction of the project. The loans are typically 3-4 year loans on construction, and often times the permanent loan is a 10-year loan (or longer).
That’s where HUD comes in. If you get a HUD loan on your multifamily, often times it’s fully amortizing over a 30 or 35 year period at ridiculously low rates…which has been driving low cap rates…which has been driving high values…which has been driving construction.
The “pretend” part of extend and pretend is made easier by be happy prescription meds, “medicinal” marijuana, fatuous computer games and hot and cold running slop.
Denver, CO Excess Housing Inventory Explodes 82% As Prices Slip Lower
http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/
“Oil Producer Afren Defaults on 2016 Bonds”
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/137527/Oil_Producer_Afren_Defaults_on_2016_Bonds
‘Mexico’s peso tumbled on Friday despite central bank intervention, hitting a six-year low as investors fled emerging markets and fixed-income investors bet that higher interest rates are in store on both sides of the border. Mexican policymakers have suggested they could raise local interest rates to increase the appeal of domestic debt. “With the weak peso and the higher probability that Fed goes in June, that all means that we should think of a preemptive hike by Mexico,” said Benito Berber, an analyst at Nomura.’
‘Mexico’s central bankers are worried that deep peso losses could affect financial stability. Foreign investors have amassed record holdings of around 2.15 trillion pesos ($139 billion) of local-currency debt and a stampede for the doors by investors could drive much deeper peso losses, analysts said. “Mexico is one of the markets with the heaviest foreign ownership,” wrote analysts at Citi FX.’
Mexico, who would invest in Mexico? How can you have a country partially controlled by narcocriminals who control the border regions right next door and pretty much ignore the problem?
But every crony wins with the Border Industrial Complex.
Cue another million of Comrade Pelosi’s Democrat-on-Arrival illegals flooding across the border into the welcoming arms of the DNC. All hail the permanent Democrat Supermajority!
Will China run out of room to store all the money from its trade surplus?
http://news.yahoo.com/china-february-trade-surplus-hits-record-370-5-030133107.html
‘Imports fell 20.5 percent to $108.6 billion, Customs said on its website. But analysts were pessimistic about the outlook for exports and blamed the weak imports reading on falling commodity prices, with stringent bank financing for traders also a factor. China is a key driver of global growth but its economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, its weakest for almost a quarter of a century, and recent indicators show signs the slowdown is continuing.’
‘Imports from all three regions declined, falling 10.3 percent with the EU, 16.7 percent with the US and 18.2 percent with the ASEAN countries, indicating domestic demand in China remained weak.’
‘With China’s economic slowdown more apparent than ever, its prospects of avoiding a hard landing are weakening. Whether policymakers succeed will depend on whether they can navigate the challenges stemming from an increasingly divided dual-track economy. Given huge declines in industrial profit growth (from 12.2% in 2013 to 3.3% last year) and in local-government revenues from land sales (which fell by 37% in 2014), there is considerable anxiety that today’s deflationary cycle could trigger corporate and local-government debt crises.’
‘And there is a widening disparity between real-estate prices in China’s thriving first- and second-tier cities and its lagging third- and fourth-tier cities.’
If you look at what China is saying they are saying the new normal is for them to grow at 7 to 8% per year for the next 20 years just like they grew at round 10% per year for around 20 years, personally I do not think they can mainly because the commodity boom that would set off would be bigger than the last boom if that were true, I do not see where the natural resources would come from, but as an investor I have to keep a close watch on it:
That is one long ass sentence.
So long I forgot to post the link too late but an excerpt from China Daily:
The nation can achieve its GDP growth target of “around 7 percent” this year without any risk of a systemic financial crisis, said members of the country’s top political advisory body on Friday.
With economic expansion having moderated to a “new normal” pace, potential GDP growth will still be about 8 percent this year and in the next 20 years, said Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist and senior vice-president of the World Bank.
His comments came during a news conference at the Third Session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
Imports from all three regions declined, falling 10.3 percent with the EU, 16.7 percent with the US and 18.2 percent with the ASEAN countries, indicating domestic demand in China remained weak.’
Are imports really weak if the price of the commodity is down and you are still importing more of the commodity but just at a lower price?
They are importing less at a lower price. One blind as a bat specuvestor. Did you ever wonder why they tell you they are still in growth mode?
They still are in the growth mode:
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2015-03-06 14:34
Counter:
China’s energy use has entered medium-low growth as the economy heads toward a more sustainable model, the country’s energy planner said Thursday.
China’s primary energy consumption is expected to expand by an average 3.4 percent annually for the 2015-2020 period, Nur Bekri, head of National Energy Administration (NEA), predicted.
The growth will further drop to 2.3 percent for the 2015-2030 period, he said in an interview published on the NEA website.
Since 2000, China’s energy use has grown at a pace of 7.9 percent annually, but as China embraces slower growth but at a higher quality, energy use will also cool down, Nur said.
One of the NEA’s major tasks this year is to formulate a strategic energy plan that will take the country to 2030.
China’s State Council unveiled an Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020) last year that promises to cap annual primary energy consumption at 4.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent until 2020.
That means the annual growth of primary energy consumption must be limited within 3.5 percent for the next six years.
In addition to controlling the volume of energy use, the NEA is also stepping up efforts to reduce coal consumption and boost the share of non-fossil fuels.
Currently, China’s coal consumption accounts for about 66 percent of the primary energy use, 35 percentage points higher than the world average.
China aims to bring the share of non-fossil energy to 15 percent by 2020 and 20 percent by 2030.
According to the annual government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang Thursday, the Chinese government plans to reduce the energy intensity, or units of energy per unit of GDP, by 3.1 percent in 2015.
Wouldn’t it mean that deflation is good - China saving money importing more at a cheaper price.
It would be the same with crude oil then, wouldn’t it?
If oil was at a sustainable price it would be good. I find it is best to deal in reality, hope is not a strategy. I tell people oil is going up because it is, whether it is good or bad is irrelevant in that analysis.
The are no doubt saving on raw materials. The problem is providing their huge population with employment, which is one of the reasons they build ghost cities and trains to nowhere.
Trade surplus = exports minus imports. When imports crash, the trade surplus rises. When an economy is in the first stages of a train wreck, the first thing to roll off the track are imports. A rising trade surplus is just further proof that China’s economy is headed for trouble.
Sorry an economy that is still growing at 7% and has a large and growing surplus is not in trouble, now a country like the U.S. that is growing at 2% and has a massive trade deficit and still growing despite lower commodity prices like the U.S. is in trouble.
Additionally, the inconvenient truth is as China moves up the value added chain it needs less and less from the world, it use to import most of its construction equipment not it produces it, it use to import most of machine tools, not it produces it, it use to have import all its big commercial jets from Boeing and Airbus, just this year it is starting to produce them. And it continues to move up the value added chain by acquiring more technology:
http://www.bjreview.com.cn/business/txt/2015-03/02/content_671543.htm
not= now it produces it
Have to go for the morning. But here is the most inconvenient truth of all. China is in a sweet spot, China has caught on to the fact that with slightly lower growth it can earn more money. China is getting the world’s commodities at bargain basement prices. This is killing the globalists that wanted China to finance the development of South America, Africa and the Middle East by paying boom prices for commodities. The U.S. and Great Britain then would make money by being their bankers and providers of social Internet services. Thus, the constant propaganda that China needs to do more to promote internal consumption to keep its GDP growing faster.
This is the advice given by the U.S. and how it is perceived by China”
Advice: You need to reduce the amount of your GDP devoted to investment. Perceived: You do not want the competition from our factories that are making increasingly more value added products.
Advice: You need to create entitlement programs to reduce the savings rate in your economy and increase consumer consumption. Perceived: Yes, our 30 to 50% savings rate does create the paradox of thrift. However, we do not want to end up like you, broke azz consumers relying on Ponzi scheme entitlement programs from a broke azz government.
Advice: You need to open your economy to foreign banking. Perceived. You want to create debt slaves relying on their credit cards to fatten your banks’ profits.
In sum, China is a saver’s economy which is saving up growth for the future, we are a debtor’s economy borrowing growth from the future. China is a supply side economy creating modern factories, we are a demand side economy adding debt to buy crap, yes, a lot of it from China.
The irony is that people like HA are bright enough to understand that saving and investing makes a better economy that one based on debt and demand side economics. He has let the MSM convince him that China’s debt is not exceeded by far by its assets.
How is that globalization working out?
Paris (AFP) - As many as 10,000 Europeans could be waging jihad in Iraq and Syria by the end of this year, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned Sunday, a three-fold increase on current numbers.
“There are 3,000 Europeans in Iraq and Syria today. When you do a projection for the months to come, there could be 5,000 before summer and 10,000 before the end of the year,” Valls told French television channel iTele.
“Do you realise the threat that this represents?” he asked.
He said there were around 1,400 people who were either already in these conflict zones, who had come back from there or who were planning to go.
“There have already been nearly 90 French people who have died out there with a weapon in their hand, fighting against our own values,” Valls said.
France, along with Belgium, has seen the largest numbers of volunteers leaving to join the Islamic State jihadist group, which has seized large parts of Syria and Iraq.
Last month, France seized passports from six of its citizens and banned 40 more from travelling abroad after they were allegedly planning to travel to Syria and Iraq.
It was the first time the measure had been used in France following its introduction as part of a raft of new counter-terrorism laws in November.
“We have to face a particularly high threat level in France, in Europe and in other countries,” said Valls.
“10,000 Europeans could be waging jihad in Iraq and Syria by the end of this year”
“90 French people”
This jagoff needs to get things straight. These are not Europeans, nor are they French.
It’s like when the MSM here reports on some illegal as a “Springfield” man.
These globalistas gotta go, I don’t care how.
Globalization has been great for China, for Europe and the United States, not so much. China exported goods and Europe and the United States imported people.
“Globalization has been great for China …”
“Has been”. It has been great for China.
You are absolutely correct in your use of the past tense.
But as for the present tense? Not so much anymore.
Globalization worked for China because their trading partners in the U.S. and Europe went insane, and globalization stopped working for China when these same trading partners went broke.
+1.
Here’s a little tale of globalization for ya:
http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/story/28254149/2015/03/03/facebook
What an idjit. You gotta be really stoopit to post insults to Arabs in an internationally public forum. What did this guy expect? That he’d get off the plane and be greeted with bouquets of roses and a marching band.
Hard lesson learned here.
This jagoff needs to get things straight. These are not Europeans, nor are they French.
So from thousands of miles away you presume to tell the prime minister of France who is French and who is not.
Presume’s got nothing to do with it.
Living in France doesn’t make you French or European anymore than sitting in a garage makes you a car (even if you have an EU passport). It’s more than clear that these people consider themselves neither French nor European. If there is anyone in Europe who understands this, it’s the Spaniards. They haven’t forgotten what it was to be part of the Caliphate and how hard it was to win their country back.
Amen, brothah! Clearly, he’s never seen El Cid, or read the history of Andalucia, which, to be fair, did experience peace and prosperity under the absentee Caliph, who really didn’t care much what went on as long as the money flowed. However, once the Reconquista got going, he called upon his fundamentalist allies from North Africa to help him out, and then all hell broke loose, because those fundies didn’t much like what they saw. Just glad the Spaniards won the day, eventually. These days, Rome has a neutered pope. I’d love to see his reaction when the jihadis are banging on the Vatican gates.
Turn the other cheek, Papa!
Falling copper, falling oil, falling housing, falling commodities of all types. All very positive economic news
“Look Out Below, Copper’s Falling”
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-05/commodity-producers-keep-mining-and-defying-economics
Does anybody know why less refined sugar costs more than refined?
There is a product called “Sugar in the Raw” and it is costs more than regular white sugar.
doesn’t it take more energy and manufacturing steps to make sugar white?
If so, why does the less refined sugar cost more?
“… why does the less refined sugar cost more?
Marketing, maybe?
Wiki says: “Although brown sugar has been touted as having health benefits ranging from soothing menstrual cramps to serving as an anti-aging skin treatment, there is no nutritional basis to support brown sugar as a healthier alternative to refined sugars despite the negligible amounts of minerals in brown sugar not found in white sugar.”
I’m just guessing here, but maybe the parts that are refined out have some value that gets realized in a different product.
Its probably because some people will pay more for food they think is healthy, even if its not. I’ll pay more for snacks made with real sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup, which is basically the confectioners version of pig swill, and artery clogging at that.
Lola watched that movie “Sugar in the Raw” back in the 80s and it changed his life.
With rising foreclosures, it’s not looking good for Nevada homeowners
IDK, very few seem worried here (i.e. the irrational exuberance of the elderly lady next door who thinks she’s going to get big bucks for her house.) Maybe they’re whistling in the dark.
i.e.e.g.Looking forward to the next Vegas down swing. Seeing lots of new properties that are coming on the market and many price reductions. This can only help things along. I am thinking it is a lot of investors looking to get out while the getting is good.
http://www.movoto.com/las-vegas-nv/market-trends/#city=&time=1Y&metric=Inventory&type=0
Shiller: “Houses Depreciate”
http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-home-investment-a-fad-2013-2
“If you think investing in housing is such a great idea, why not invest in cars?” he asked. “Buy a car, mothball it, and sell it in 20 years. Obviously not a good idea because people won’t want our cars. It’s the same with our houses. So, they’re not really an investment vehicle.”
This quote is exactly 2 years old. Did you post this as a joke because houses went up in value after Shiller said this?
Shiller 20-city RE index, March 2013: 148.4
Shiller 20-city RE index, Dec 2014: 173.0 (latest available)
Net gain: 16.6%. Not a bad return for less than two years, if you want to flip I guess.
Houses depreciate regardless my friend.
… and remember…. Even in the absence of the excess empty housing inventory estimated in the tens of millions, historically housing prices fall. Why? Because houses depreciate. ALWAYS.
Yup, I agree houses in the long run have poor returns. I just thought it humorous that Shiller’s own index shot up after he said that…
Negative returns. And the fact that houses depreciate has nothing to do with a rigged index.
San Francisco And Los Angeles Foreclosures Starts Skyrocket 35% YoY
http://www.realtytrac.com/images/reportimages/foreclosure_trends_20_largest_metros_jan_2015.png
“Sacramento Realtor Indicted For Bank Fraud”
http://www.news10.net/story/news/local/sacramento/2015/02/27/realtor-indicted-for-bank-fraud/24152675/
Jingle fail?
Notice that this was for fraudulent loan applications submitted in 2007-08, not some new echo bubble fraud.
That’s up next.
I helped the FBI bust 3 crime rings of mortgage fraudsters. It takes a long time to put them away. 2007-2008 were times of rampant fraud. I haven’t seen any since then.
You’re in denial of your own dirty deeds Jingle_Fraud.
Red Meat for the Right Wing Base! You just knew the far right propaganda/spin machine would exploit the Hillary E-Mail Thing somehow. Hmmm, that Hillary associate Huma Abedin has a funny name, she must be a spy for the Mooslim tare-o-wrists!
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Prove it or don’t print it.
===
“Hillary Clinton’s Emailgate scandal is becoming more problematic by the day… One other State Department official evidently violated this policy: Mrs. Clinton‘s deputy chief of staff, Huma Abedin. Her emails are of particular interest insofar as Ms. Abedin has extensive ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. That’s the Islamist organization whose self-declared mission is “destroying Western civilization from within.””
===
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/6/frank-gaffney-huma-abedins-private-emails-muslim-b/
I say a documentary on Wikileaks, with the leak of State Department correspondence.
So as far I’m concerned, the reason the Secretary of State would use her private e-mail address is obvious.
What would George Orwell say about this? Florida state government bans use of the terms “climate change” and “global warming”
“…officials have been ordered not to use the term “climate change” or “global warming” in any official communications, emails, or reports, according to former DEP employees, consultants, volunteers and records obtained by the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article12983720.html
Heh, most likely because the summers here have become practically unbearable and we must not let all those folks freezing their butts up North realize they’re merely trading frigid for a furnace. Nor should they know that Miami is experiencing unprecedented flooding problems. As are other parts of the state. If a dog so much as takes a whizz in South Tampa, the streets fill up and cars can’t get through the water without stalling.
I think Florida should call global warming new beach development, or catastrophic coastal real estate collapse. I’m sure I know which euphemism the NAR will choose.
Feel free to kiss the sky.
Psychedelic drug use ‘does not increase risk for mental health problems’
Sunday 8 March 2015 at 12am PST
An analysis of data provided by 135,000 randomly selected participants - including 19,000 people who had used drugs such as LSD and magic mushrooms - finds that use of psychedelics does not increase risk of developing mental health problems. The results are published in the Journal of Psychopharmacology.
Krebs and Johansen report that they found no evidence for a link between use of psychedelic drugs and psychological distress, depression, anxiety or suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts.
In fact, on a number of factors, the study found a correlation between use of psychedelic drugs and decreased risk for mental health problems.
“Many people report deeply meaningful experiences and lasting beneficial effects from using psychedelics,” says Krebs.
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/290461.php
George Soros and other oligarchs are backing drug legalization, probably because their looting of the productive economy will soon leave vice as the only growth industry. I wonder who is funding these “studies” touting the benefits of illict drugs.
Why would God make shrooms grow on cow dung if he didn’t want us to eat them?
Why would God make shrooms grow on cow dung if he didn’t want us to eat them?
If your god wants you to eat cow dung, it’s time to find another.
Tomorrow the ECB will launch a new 1.1 trillion euro “stimulus” to enable a vast new orgy of looting and speculation by the .1%, while the real Eurozone economy continues to circle the drain despite the “austerity” imposed on the 99%. Already the financial media are trying to herd the retail investor herd in Wall Street’s rigged casino.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stocks-to-buy-as-ecb-kicks-off-qe-socgen-2015-03-05
No systemic banking crisis…nothing so see…move along…crisis contained from a “bad” bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-07/heta-damage-spreads-in-austrian-downgrades-german-losses
Buy now in Beirut or be priced out forever! (Oh, and don’t forget to feed the squirrels).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/international/11456649/The-next-global-property-hotspot-Why-Beirut-of-course.html
‘Muricans about to be fooled yet again.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jeb-bush-tries-out-his-conservative-credentials-in-iowa-10094563.html
Amid Detroit’s resurgence, foreclosure crisis still threatens homeowners
By Tina Susman contact the reporter
The new owner and the former owner faced off in the hallway of the brick house, which sits on a pleasant, tree-lined street. Howard Franklin and his daughter, Catherine, wanted to move in, but the people who had lost the home in a tax foreclosure had not moved out.
Voices got loud. Guns were drawn, and bullets ripped through the dark house. When it was over, the 72-year-old Franklin lay dead inside the front door. His 37-year-old daughter was sprawled on the porch, also dead.
Police quickly arrested Alonzo Long Jr., a relative of the home’s previous owners, but anyone who thought this was a simple homicide case hasn’t spent time in Detroit, where foreclosures have turned the killings into a symbol of the economic ills plaguing Detroit despite its emergence from bankruptcy in December.
Long’s attorney, Charles Longstreet II, said that his client was there helping his relatives move out and that he fired in self-defense when Howard and Catherine Franklin, who each had a gun, tried to take the eviction into their own hands.
“The foreclosure issue comes into play because it’s the defense’s position that the landlord did not go through the proper channels,” said Longstreet, who accuses the Franklins of failing to abide by ordinances that require a court bailiff to execute an eviction.
A police report said that Howard Franklin did not fire his gun and that it was found in his pocket, although some witnesses dispute this. Long fired his weapon, and Catherine Franklin fired hers.
In the hours before the shooting, several calls were made to 911 seeking help in getting the previous occupants out of the house, according to the report, which refers to those occupants as “squatters.”
A relative of Howard Franklin agreed.
“When you don’t pay any taxes for two or three years, what are you? A squatter,” said the relative, who did not want to be identified because of the publicity about the case. “The records show that Mr. Franklin did own the home. Some people are making it look like Howard and Catherine were the villains versus the victims. It’s very hurtful.”
Long, 22, pleaded not guilty to two counts of first-degree murder.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-detroit-foreclosures-20150308-story.html - 170k -