Living In The Twilight Of Uncertainty
The Real Deal reports from New York. “Initial reports suggested that units at the Madison in Long Island City, a new condominium development, were selling like hotcakes. Nevertheless, the building is now going rental. Pre-construction sales launched at the 14-unit building last summer, and roughly 50 percent of the units quickly went into contract. At the time, pricing for the one- and two-bedroom ‘penthouse’ units started at $500,000, according to Brownstoner. But the owners, who occupy at least one unit in the building, have decided to hang on to their debut project, and refund the buyers. Now it’s going rental, according to Brownstoner.”
Bloomberg on Texas. “Houston home sales fell in February for the first time in six months, a sign lower oil prices are spooking buyers. Purchases fell among residences costing less than $150,000 because of tight supply, and among properties selling for more than $500,000 as wealthier buyers paused amid economic uncertainty, said James Gaines, research economist at Texas A&M University’s real estate center. ‘They don’t know what the real impact of falling oil prices is,’ Gaines said in a telephone interview from College Station, Texas. ‘We’re living in the twilight of uncertainty.’”
“Michele Marano, an agent with Champions Real Estate Group, said the housing market has softened because buyers are taking their time. ‘People know right now that time is on the buyers’ side,’ said Marano, who specializes in houses for energy-industry professionals. Marano said she’s in the market for a new home in the Woodlands, and is waiting for prices to drop before buying. ‘There’s a lot of brand new construction, and it’s not like it’s moving fast,’ Marano said. ‘When we look at houses, the selling agent calls me back 10 times asking if we will come in again.’”
Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “The seller of a Gold Coast condominium said he was ‘disturbed’ that the unit sold last week for the same he paid more than 11 years ago. The two-bedroom, three-bath unit on Delaware Place went for $590,000, which Dr. Robert Murphy paid in October 2003. ‘That place went so cheap,’ Murphy said of the March 4 sale.”
“A few distressed sales in the building during the downturn ‘unfortunately set the appraisal below where it should have been,’ said listing agent Anna Robertson of Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty. The home was listed for $625,000 in January.”
The Frederick News Post in Maryland. “Demographics are constantly changing in Frederick County, and trying to meet the development demand for community development requires both short- and long-range planning. Eric Soter, a principal with Rodgers Consulting and former director of the county’s division, said there would be more younger, first-time buyers in the market for homes in the future, but the average 40-50 age group that moves into a larger home is not doing so. ‘What impact will this have on homes? Will prices fall?’ Soter said.”
“Hugh Gordon, a loan officer with FitzGerald Financial, said without the ‘move-up’ buyers, the traditional home-buying system is in trouble. If part of that system is missing, Gordon said, it creates a disjointed system, almost a game of dominoes that could fall. That missing move-up will stall the market for potential first-time buyers, he said. Joe Baldi, a housing counselor with the Frederick Community Action Agency, said he is seeing more people coming in for help facing foreclosures. Those in distress will wait too late to talk with Baldi or their lender or spend money that should have gone to pay their mortgage on other things, he said. ‘It is bad to see it so busy,’ Baldi said, ‘but some people don’t help themselves.’”
The Marin Independent Journal in California. “In Marin, 294 foreclosure filings took place last year, a 43 percent drop compared with 515 in 2013, according to RealtyTrac. While optimistic, RealtyTrac vice president Daren Blomquist said there was a blip on the horizon. ‘In November, December and January we actually saw a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in Marin, and that was following 33 consecutive months in which foreclosure activity was down.’”
“A veteran Marin agent described the development, ‘As compared to a red flag, it’s a pink flag. It’s not like things were a few years ago. It’s something to keep an eye on,’ said Peter Richmond, a Pacific Union agent.”
The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “South Orange County resident Mary McKaig said she had been confused after taking ‘judgment-altering’ weight-loss medication for the first time and mistakenly bid more than $100,000 at a Feb. 19 public auction for a house that — unbeknownst to her — was saddled with more than $400,000 of debt, according to court documents filed by her attorney. The $102,000 that McKaig agreed to pay for the two-story home in Windermere only paid off the homeowner-association debt. Public records show Chase Mortgage has for years had a $400,000 lien on the house, for which tax records show a market value of $290,127.”
“McKaig and her husband ‘basically dumped $100,000 into a property that is $100,000 underwater,’ said Orlando attorney Richard Weinman, who represents McKaig.”
“Mistakenly buying a property enshrouded in debt is more common that most people think, said Orlando attorney Moses DeWitt. He noted that five other bidders on the Windermere house were willing to pay more than the homeowner-association debt on it. But few people, he added, overbid by as much as McKaig did. ‘I’ve seen so many people get themselves into this situation,’ said DeWitt. He said he once had a client who purchased at auction a house that, unbeknownst to the buyer, was deeply underwater. The buyer spent $50,000 on renovations before he realized his mistake and the bank filed to foreclose.”
Every few weeks, some bored “medicated” housewife comes to the courthouse steps and overbids. I used to keep notes just for grins and revisit some properties about 6 months later. If they were “lucky”, they did a lot of work and broke even. Sometimes they lost $15,000 to $20,000 for the privilege of being a ” flipper”.
It was often funny how they used the word “flipper”! It was with reverence….like you might use doctor or architect!
‘McKaig was “solely responsible for research regarding [the house]” but “had not discovered the mortgage before the sale,” her attorney wrote in the court filing.’
‘Lloyd McClendon, CEO of RealAuction.com told ABC News that the sale was conducted properly without any errors. McKaig placed $120,000 in her deposit escrow account so she could bid on any house on Nov. 2, 2014, three months prior to the sale, McClendon said. He added that she entered her account and routing numbers for the electronic check, which he said would have been “something very difficult to do by someone affected by prescription medication.”
“The diet pill seems like a convenient excuse for not doing their research before bidding,” McClendon said.’
‘McClendon points out that McKaig doesn’t allege that the auction site doesn’t work as intended. McKaig also bid on several other properties throughout the month, confirmed the mandatory bidder acknowledgements and placed several other bids on the day of the sale, McClendon said. The website asks bidders to confirm by checking statements such as, “I hereby state that I have physically inspected this property or waive the opportunity to do so.”
So the want a do-over? I rented in Windermere for about 6 years and that zipcode does cover a little more ground than Isleworth and the village of Windermere itself. In short, it ain’t all swimmin’ pools and movie stars on Bay Hill and the lakes. Most of the zip is horribly overpriced and over-taxed tract-crap that people buy for the zipcode cachet. $300,000 doesn’t buy you diddly in Windermere. These rocket-scientist, real estate-mogul, wannabe flipper, smartest guy in the room investors just discovered financial Darwinism. They earned every bit of it, so let them go the way of the Dodo and at least be a warning to other dimwits: greed has its price.
greed has its price ??
Greed kills the pig….
Is she going to try to argue in court that the contract should be set aside because she was high? Good luck with that.
The fact that you are there shows you are no different.
You mean just like Ben Jones?
I’m neither bored or medicated and I buy to hold long term. I don’t flip houses. I provide a solid stable rental property for quality residents.
I’ve only sold one house in 24 years and that was because the tenant was such a painful drama queen.
Now that’s funny.
The difference is, Ben Jones has the integrity to avoid being involved with fraud.
You’re bad karma Jingle_Fraud.
‘We’re living in the twilight of uncertainty.’
What a beautiful turn of the phrase!
“twilight of uncertainty” would be a good name for a band, or a mystery novel.
He is actually living in the twilight of certainty. The uncertainty is just dawning on him.
““Initial reports suggested that units at the Madison in Long Island City, a new condominium development, were selling like hotcakes. Nevertheless, the building is now going rental.”
Of course the they were! Just like housing prices aren’t falling across the board. Damn liars.
Queens, NY Sale Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/queens-ny/home-values/
‘Turns out condos were a bust at the 14-unit building, and it is now trying its hand at rentals. Court Square Blog reports that Modern Spaces listed two units on the rental market for $2,750 and $2,773 a month. Both listed here — come in at 575 square feet. As for those condos, Streeteasy shows that nothing ever sold.’
$50 a year per foot, what a deal!
HA can build you one for that amount. You just have to live in your car for a year……
You’re backpedalling Jingle_Fraud.
‘The Frederick News Post in Maryland. “Demographics are constantly changing in Frederick County, and trying to meet the development demand for community development requires both short- and long-range planning. Eric Soter, a principal with Rodgers Consulting and former director of the county’s division, said there would be more younger, first-time buyers in the market for homes in the future, but the average 40-50 age group that moves into a larger home is not doing so. ‘What impact will this have on homes? Will prices fall?’ Soter said.”’
They’re already falling dimwit.
Frederick, MD Prices Dive 8% YoY; Inventory Skyrockets 92%
http://www.movoto.com/frederick-md/market-trends/
“The buyer spent $50,000 on renovations before he realized his mistake and the bank filed to foreclose.”’
^ This is funny chit
…. And it is exactly what fools do. Overpay for a rapidly depreciating asset, double down on their losses and finance it, then throw more good money after bad by “improving it” in an attempt to make themselves feel better about getting ripped off.
Sorry but $50 headlamps on 10 year old Chevy truck won’t make it new again.
Ben Long island city..queensboro plaza…this area was full of bodegas hookers strip joints 10+ years ago….not an area you’d want to walk in….
http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/03/11/pmg-files-plans-for-70-story-long-island-city-tower/
Here is all that is being developed 1 or 2 stops from Manhattan
http://therealdeal.com/blog/tag/long-island-city/
Wanted: Gentrifiers for huge Long Island City warehouse
http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/10/20/wanted-gentrifiers-for-long-island-city-warehouse/
‘the housing market has softened because buyers are taking their time. ‘People know right now that time is on the buyers’ side,’ said Marano, who specializes in houses for energy-industry professionals. Marano said she’s in the market for a new home in the Woodlands, and is waiting for prices to drop before buying. ‘There’s a lot of brand new construction, and it’s not like it’s moving fast,’ Marano said. ‘When we look at houses, the selling agent calls me back 10 times asking if we will come in again’
‘Houston-area homes sales took a nearly 6 percent dive in February, as the local housing market continued to slow amid falling oil prices and job cuts in the city’s once-thriving energy industry.’
‘The median price of home — the figure at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — was up 7.9 percent to $199,400 in February.’
Here we have a market where even the UHS are low-balling and the median is up. The median sales price is a lagging indicator.
‘In November, December and January we actually saw a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in Marin’
Imagine that, and it’s all boom, boom. Somehow, checks aren’t getting written. Or maybe these are people who haven’t paid in years. But, why couldn’t they just refinance or sell? It’s almost like the newspapers and REIC aren’t telling us the whole story.
Sounds like they may have gotten stucco.
‘why couldn’t they just refinance or sell?’
Where is the buyer at even 25% of the asking price?
Housing Demand Plummets YoY In 55 Of 58 California Counties
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/County/County_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
I really wish I could say that’s what we’re seeing here in Claremont, CA. Claremont is the eastern most city in LA County. It’s got good schools and 8 colleges, so it seems to be a highly desirable town. In the last 3 weeks the following houses have been sold by friends of mine. ALL of them have had multiple offers, 2 of them had more than 11 offers. They all sold for over asking.
This one was on the MLS for a grand total of 10 minutes!
http://www.ziprealty.com/property/128-E-GREEN-ST-CLAREMONT-CA-91711/6786630/detail
This one went under contract the first day for $8,000 over asking. The house directly across the street backs up to the 210 freeway.
http://www.ziprealty.com/property/920-OCCIDENTAL-DR-CLAREMONT-CA-91711/6781962/detail
This one is in the worst possible shape. Floors were bare concrete with holes in it in some rooms. Needed new everything! In escrow for $500,000.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Claremont-CA/21499454_zpid/30908_rid/days_sort/34.120047,-117.70252,34.105089,-117.736766_rect/14_zm/1_fr/?view=map
This one is 4 houses from the freeway. 11 offers and went $15,000 over asking in the first week.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Claremont-CA/21499328_zpid/30908_rid/days_sort/34.120154,-117.706519,34.118284,-117.7108_rect/17_zm/1_fr/?view=map
I keep hearing that it’s changed to a buyers market and prices are going down in So Cal. It’s DEFINITELY not what I’m seeing here.
We’d honestly like to eventually buy a house. We have no debt and a down payment of at least 1/2. We’re planning to stay long term. We will buy a house eventually, the question is how long should we wait?
Are we seeing the last lemmings running off the cliff, or is there something else going on? Claremont never really seemed to go down much even in 2008.
I don’t know what to tell you. Housing demand is at record lows in CA with foreclosure moratoriums in effect.
Why would you want to pay a 300% premium for a depreciating asset when prices are falling?
“We will buy a house eventually, the question is how long should we wait?”
IMHO, next cycle. Wait for the next building boom in So Cal, and recession. It’ll be a few years to play out, in my opinion.
Thank you, Oh Buddha, for your perfect wisdom… You using your “data” to support that conclusion or you working off your uncanny intuition? Bernie Madoff produced reams of data too- all of it supporting his conclusions. It all worked great, until suddenly it didn’t.
1907 Barrington Ct
Last sold: Oct 1977 for $86,000
Yes, now it’s in escrow for $565,000.
Can you imagine being on the hook for those kind of losses?
“”The 294 foreclosures that took place in 2014 comprise less than a half of a percent of the 111,063 properties in the county.
“It’s minuscule,” said Patrick Carlisle, the chief market analyst for Paragon Real Estate Group, which recently opened an office in Greenbrae.
“When (the foreclosure mess) hit, it hit counties with lower-priced homes harder than those with higher-priced homes. In Alameda, Contra Costa and Sonoma, the distressed property rate got up to 50 percent of all sales. In Marin at its highest point, at the peak (of foreclosures) in 2010 it was 25 percent,” Carlisle said.
Foreclosures in Marin mostly occurred in the north end of the county where home prices are lower, Carlisle said.
There were 1,979 foreclosures in Marin in 2010, and there were 1,698 in 2011, according to RealtyTrac. The number fell to 1,303 in 2012, the year designated as the recovery year by many, and kept falling, to 515 in 2013 and 294 in 2014.”
Important context.
Important context;
With foreclosure moratoriums in effect in all 50 states, nobody knows just how many millions of excess empty and defaulted houses there are.l
“…“It’s minuscule,” said Patrick Carlisle, the chief market analyst for Paragon Real Estate Group, which recently opened an office in Greenbrae.”
So… for objective analysis and unbiased “data”, you rely upon a puff piece from a RE group mouthpiece for the condition of the market? No conflict of interest there, eh Grundle?
Important context.
“Demographics are constantly changing in Frederick County, and trying to meet the development demand for community development requires both short- and long-range planning. Eric Soter, a principal with Rodgers Consulting and former director of the county’s division, said there would be more younger, first-time buyers in the market for homes in the future, but the average 40-50 age group that moves into a larger home is not doing so. ‘What impact will this have on homes? Will prices fall?’ Soter said.”
How is this move-up dynamic supposed to work with so many mid-life homeowners enjoying personal bailouts in the form of refis at artificially suppressed, decades-low mortgage rates? Many would-be move-up buyers can’t afford to move, as it would force them into either living in a smaller house or paying a higher monthly.
“Hugh Gordon, a loan officer with FitzGerald Financial, said without the ‘move-up’ buyers, the traditional home-buying system is in trouble. If part of that system is missing, Gordon said, it creates a disjointed system, almost a game of dominoes that could fall.”
Nobody wants to “move up” to an overpriced, mold strewn drywall, energy sucking, cookie cutter McMansion!
fixt.
Nobody wants to “move up” to an overpriced,
mold strewn drywall, energy sucking, cookie cutter McMansionunderwater, depreciating, wallet draining shack anywhere!“A veteran Marin agent described the development, ‘As compared to a red flag, it’s a pink flag. It’s not like things were a few years ago. It’s something to keep an eye on,’ said Peter Richmond, a Pacific Union agent.”
“Pink flag” - That’s hilarious on a couple levels…
“‘As compared to a red flag, it’s a pink flag.”
Yeah…
‘It won’t crash, it will just gently settle a little, like a souffle’…’
‘Prices won’t fall, they’ll just plateau.’(as the liar uses her hands in a forward motion).
San Diego Sale Prices Crater 13% YoY As Housing Correction Ramps Up
http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92130/home-values/
A few more years of such declines, and long elusive affordability goals msy finally be achieved in San Diego.
uncertain?
Houston can be certain of a recession
Riverside, CA Housing Inventory Explodes 117% As Demand Craters; Prices Fall 3%
http://www.movoto.com/riverside-ca/market-trends/
“Real Estate Agent Accused of Stealing $400K from Employer”
http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3714599.shtml
Chicago seller dismayed that condo sold for same price as 11 years ago. Be happy, because many sellers are taking a bath if and when they ever sell.
This is the dirty secret of these RE agents, they come to your home with there comps and sale pending etc, but what they fail to tell the thrilled client that unless you are prepared to go under for what you paid you can whistle Dixie in this market.
Of course they don’t tell you this till 60 days has passed and nothing to little showings, then the reality sets in, they lied to get your listing, dump the price they say but we can’t lower our commission, that is the standard practice?
And in the meantime you are paying substantial carrying costs, your life is on hold, etc. Agree that there are LOTS of sleazy and deceptive RE agents but it is very easy for a seller to spend an hour on the web and figure out what the going rate is for houses that have actually sold fairly quickly. When I sold my last place (in early 2007) pricing it about $10K/3% under that got me a buyer in a week. My RE agent was surprised and said most of her clients priced their places over market…anyway often greed on the sellers part is a big factor in ludicrous asking prices. I did bargain for a 5% commission rather than 6% but that still amounted to $15K which was ridiculous considering the amount of work involved, however thanks to the HBB I knew I needed to make the sale ASAP as Bubble 1.0 was about to burst.
Realtors are liars. Houses are depreciating losses.