Bits Bucket for March 15, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Heading back to California today after seeing the Grand Canyon. The country looks good and the south rim was busy.
There were places along Hwy 64 & 180 where it appears people bought 20 to 40 acres of high desert. Some had little storage sheds, even fewer had motorhomes parked alongside. I can’t imagine buying a chunk of high desert in AZ for any price. These folks were sold a “dream” and I’m sure reality is quite different!
The nearest town of Williams seems to be on life support. I heard they ran out of water last summer. It’s been more dry weather since then.
We appreciate your tourist dollars. Now get back across the line to your fraud and depreciation.
Happy to experience your warm hospitality! Here is something notable: the cyber add at the top of the page offers Grand Canyon flight tours! Someone is reading my posts! LOL! It’s the AZ Tourism board!
Why are people buying 40-60 acres of high desert? They can’t be homesteading. Even someone dreaming about homesteading knows enough to look up annual rainfall. Do they plan to retire and live off the local Wal-mart? You don’t need 40 acres for that. There’s certainly no logging. Hold and sell to developers? Again, no rainfall mean no large-scale development. So I don’t get it. Maybe speculating on mineral right?
On a related note: a bit of poking around showed that a family needs anywhere from 0.1 - 30 acres for self-sufficiency.
0.1 acre — semi self sufficient for 1-2 people
2 acres — everything for a small family
30+ acres — totally go-time sufficient, including livestock, a forest stand for fuel, and a buffer too keep away the zombie hordes.
http://www.smallfootprintfamily.com/how-much-land-is-needed-to-be-self-sufficient
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/retreat-living/30-acres-for-self-sufficiency/
“…and a buffer too keep away the zombie hordes.”
LOL! I know someone down in California who lives isolated and worries about the zombie hordes. SSDI and MediCAL provide his reality needs.
Does he complain about the socialist government too?
Indeed… he complains about the democrats all the time.
The government needs to keep its hands off his SSDI and Medicaid!
The last two elections conclusively proved that not only do the zombie hordes exist, they mindlessly serve the oligarchy by voting for its annointed candidates. Maybe the people who need meds are the thinking 5%.
You don’t need 40 acres for that ??
Likely a zoning regulation for subdivisions in the area…Minimum lot size = 40 acres.
Likely a zoning regulation for subdivisions in the area…Minimum lot size = 40 acres.
I would love to live in that subdivision! Keeps the rude neighbors, screaming kids, etc, away, and lets me enjoy my privacy and peace and quiet.
You’re in the wrong state, or at least the wrong side.
why pay inflated prices at all poor worthless dirt. Remember 95% of the globe goes on the developed.
and lets me enjoy my privacy and peace and quiet ??
You will have plenty of that…
Crushing.Housing.Losses.
http://www.landandfarm.com/m/search/AZ/Williams-land-for-sale/
Here is your answer! They are 1 acre parcels for $3000. A real slice of heaven!
$3,000 is only about $2999 too much.
+1…….$1 that is. GR hasvit right…
Oxy, I found & posted a link to what we observed. It should show up soon. Turns out they are 1 acre parcels and thousands are available for sale. They just looked like 20 acres because so few are being used.
It looks worse than Lehigh Acres in Florida. Average price for 1 acre looks to be $3500!
And overpriced how much Jingle_Fraud?
Oil Futures Suffer Weekly Drop Of 9.6% On Nymex
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-suffer-weekly-drop-of-96-on-nymex-2015-03-13
I wonder if dumbazz somehow missed the news that oil dropped nine pct last week?
That is going to be your screen name if you have the balls to take the bet. Oil made its bottom. The last time WTI was down at these levels Brent was even a few cents lower now it is more than 12 dollars higher. That is why the price of gasoline is so much higher. Yes, it gave some of its gains back last week with a huge surge of the dollar. However, with the dollar so high even Apple’s profit margin is getting pressured. The PTB who thought they could manipulate Brent below 40 are running scared. The WSJ ran a story yesterday which was a half truth. Yes, some companies are still drilling but not fracking but they are the companies that are well capitalized. Many of companies which are over extended are doing the opposite fracking more wells than they are drilling. The interesting point yesterday was the WSJ had an editorial in which they were trying to get Obama to lift the crude oil ban, they slipped up and admitted that the U.S. is imminently going to lose 1.5 million barrels of production in shale oil due to the declining drilling rates, the surplus projected over the year by the IEA was 900,000 due the math and you will see the problem, even a dumbass can see the higher prices coming.
due= do the math. Shale oil companies are in the process of drilling out the prime spots. They are down to 65 acre spacing is the richest areas. Any one who knows anything about oil is amazed that they are allowing spacing that tight. In conventional oil fields they would consider that a highly wasteful practice. Oil is a finite resource and prime drilling spots are even more finite. The Saudis, apparently, mad at Obama over Iran’s nuclear program, have deserted him like a scene from Braveheart. The PTB have short oil bets they need to cover and they are not only will to crash Wall Street they are willing to crash the entire economy to stay out of the poorhouse.
Champion falling prices Dan. Its good for the economy.
You ought to be a musician, as you never miss a cue.
You had a movie named after you, “Clueless”.
Clue, cue… same difference to a dullard…
oil prices have a long way to fall Dan. Just like housing prices. look at it this way. Why would resale prices for house be 3x construction costs?
Dan is just six months behind, or a year. It must be an investing handicap.
Try six months a head and it works out well.
Another 50% decline in the next 6 months. Just like the last 6 months.
Stay optimistic Dan.
“…Oil made its bottom…”
One foolish utterance after another, ad nauseum…
Even as oil prices are currently falling!
Only a complete jackass could fail to notice that oil has not yet bottomed out.
Markets More: Oil
The weekend is over and oil is getting slammed
Myles Udland
Mar. 15, 2015, 7:33 PM
Good evening!
The weekend is over, futures markets are open, and oil is getting slammed again.
On Sunday night in New York, West Texas Intermediate crude was down as much as 2% to as low as $43.90 a barrel, the lowest price for WTI in six years.
Near 9:30 pm ET, WTI had recovered a bit, but was still around $44.15 a barrel, more than 1.5% lower than where it closed Friday afternoon.
The decline in oil prices on Sunday night follows a rough week for WTI, with prices moving north of $50 a barrel last Monday before closing the week down around $45.
On Friday, the International Energy Agency said that the stability seen in oil prices over the last month or so was not likely to last, with the IEA saying in a report, “Behind the facade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course.”
The latest data from oil driller Baker Hughes released Friday also showed the number of US oil rigs continues to plummet, falling another 56 last week to 866, or the lowest level since March 2011.
Over the last several months, a number of Wall Street strategists have said that the bottom is not in for oil prices, and after a little bit of relative stability, it seems like the commodity is yet again trending lower with fewer signs of stopping.
Here’s Sunday night’s open in WTI.
…
Yeah, they just touched their 52 week low a few hours ago.
“…just touched their 52 week low…”
Recently reaching a 52 week low is normally a sign that a lower low is soon to come.
Asset appreciation is helping the economy and putting folks back to work.Get on board the gravy train. Some people actually work while others just sit back and watch their asset prices rise in value. Seems like the folks the perform have to pay more for the basics after a diluted currency to help asset prices rise. Seems fair to me.
Thinking of driving to reno for some affordable gasoline.
“Some people actually work while others just sit back and watch their asset prices rise in value.”
And still others sit back and collect interest from loaning money (money that isn’t even theirs) to both those who work and those who buy up assets hoping for a rise.
For some of us life is indeed good. For some others? Not so much.
Leeches come in all shapes, sizes and occupations.
There are plenty of STEM folks making $100K+ annually who do nothing all day, whenever they can. Perhaps you know a few yourself. I’ve run across plenty in my day..
Just because one makes good money doesn’t mean one isn’t a parasite.
Is IT counted as STEM? I can see an argument yes or no.
I work with a group of STEM folks that are extremely intelligent and work their asses off. They work 10 - 12 hours a day here in Sunnyvale and then they’re on line at night having meetings with our group in India. I see hundreds of code commits from these people during the night and on the weekends.
They definitely earn their money.
My experience is that the do nothing STEM folks get laid off.
Or the ones that are over 45 years old.
I don’t know, I’m 67 and still at it.
Or the ones that are over 45 years old.
My company actively hires in that range — quite a few, actually
For some of us life is indeed good. For some others? Not so much.
A good life and a not so good life are both but moments in eternity.
JPM Just Print Money
So far so good parasites are parasites, rich or poor.
The parasites would have been jerked up short years ago, but for the 95% of the electorate - the sheeple - who give them a blank check and a free hand for their scams and parasitism.
Oh the irony of the whole Bush v. Gore thing in 2000. 37 some odd votes seperated heads I win from tails you lose.
America lost either way.
“The parasites would have been jerked up short years ago, but for the 95% of the electorate - the sheeple - who give them a blank check and a free hand for their scams and parasitism.”
Or their willingness to become hosts.
Bahahahahahahaha … think about this for a moment:
The banker acts as a host for his client for an hour or so and during this time he may offer him a free cup of coffee - and maybe even include a free refill!
But after the dotted line ceremony has been concluded - willingly concluded, I might add - the roles are switched: The client now becomes a host and, if all goes well for the banker, the newly-anointed host’s duration may extend well beyond an hour or so to … to … to maybe thirty years. Or even longer.
And as for the cost of all this to this newly-anointed host?
(If you truly need an answer to this question I will be glad to invite you to come see me at my bank and will perhaps discuss the matter over a free cup of coffee! And I will include a free refill!)
parasitism
That’s a good one. We’ve going through different ism words ever since people started talking about socialism in the summer of 2008. A new one is needed and looks like you’ve found it.
More optimistic economic news….
“Sugar Prices Fall to Near Six-Year Low on Weak Brazilian Currency”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/sugar-slides-to-new-nearly-six-year-low-on-rains-brazilian-real-1426255974
After an epic economic fail hosting the World Cup, how does a collapsing economy turn an open sewer to a glamorous Olympic venue?
“Under pressure from the International Olympic Committee, the government of Rio de Janeiro has turned to a high-technology Dutch firm to help collect floating garbage in Guanabara Bay, the sailing venue for the 2016 Games. (March 11) AP”
video:
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2015/03/11/70173342/
JPM Just Print Money
So far so good
There’s a wealthy Florida family that basically controls the sugar industry in the U.S.; brothers IIRC. They get huge subsidies from congressmen in their region, and they steer 1/3 of the proceeds back to the campaign coffers to keep them in office, or something like that. A very nice deal for those involved.
It’s good to be the king
The Killer Politics of Big Sugar
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/10/the-killer-politics-of-big-sugar/
wealthy Florida family that basically controls the sugar industry in the U.S.; brothers IIRC
The brother(s) Fanjul, very tight with Bill, interrupted him on the job.
Raising Cane – A History of Big Sugar in South Florida
These people.
Yeah, that’s them. I think it was a 60-minutes episode that had a 20-minute piece on “how the cartel works.” No free market in sugar; just ugly corruption at the highest levels.
Wages Fall, prices fall. It’s the way the world works.
“Wholesale Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall for Fourth Month”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-unexpectedly-fall-for-fourth-month
Falling prices, especially housing, is always a positive.
“Real Estate: Why falling prices in Atlantic City could be a good thing”
http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2015/03/06/real-estate-why-falling-prices-in-atlantic-city.html?page=all
Olympia, WA Sale Prices Fall 7% YoY; Inventory Skyrockets
http://www.zillow.com/olympia-wa/home-values/
“Soybean Production Up In State, But Prices Falling”
http://thesouthern.com/news/local/soybean-production-up-in-state-but-prices-falling/article_f5176648-adb8-5fb2-b47e-ed5dc1b180eb.html
Falling prices of housing, commodities, oil, food…. All making your dollars increasingly valuable.
“Mistaking Peak Prices for “Peak Everything”
http://reason.com/archives/2015/03/13/peak-commodity-prices-not-peak-everythin
“The contraction phase of this cycle has not even begun yet, which can lower the mean of the whole cycle in the upcoming years.”
^Translation- If you wagered(borrowed) otherwise, you’re screwed.
“London Property Prices Fall For Sixth Month Running”
http://www.wharf.co.uk/news/property/london-property-prices-fall-sixth-8834110
*No great revelation considering property prices have been falling YoY in many areas of the US
“Look Out Below, Copper’s Falling”
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-05/commodity-producers-keep-mining-and-defying-economics
Soothsayer. Caesar!
Caesar. Ha! who calls?
Casca. Bid every noise be still: peace yet again!
Caesar. Who is it in the press that calls on me? 100
I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music,
Cry ‘Caesar!’ Speak; Caesar is turn’d to hear.
Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March.
Caesar. What man is that?
Brutus. A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March. 105
Caesar. Set him before me; let me see his face.
Cassius. Fellow, come from the throng; look upon Caesar.
Caesar. What say’st thou to me now? speak once again.
Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March.
Caesar. He is a dreamer; let us leave him: pass.
I liked pie day better.
So did Caesar.
I also like what Reddit calls March 15th.
Correction, March 14th
“Crude Oil Seen Dropping To $40 Or Even $20 A Barrrel This Year”
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/crude-oil-seen-dropping-40-even-20-barrel-this-year-1491932
*Falling Prices… This is what we and the economy want and need. Falling prices of all kinds. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices. Nothing.
Editor’s Note: Oil glut belies doomsdayers
Nolan Finley, The Detroit News
5 days ago
The words “oil glut” were not something I ever expected to hear in 2015, 45 years after scientists predicted with confidence that the world had reached peak oil, the point after which oil production would steadily decline.
…
And while production did drop for a few years, advances in technology and discoveries of new reserves now make those doomsday voices sound foolish.
Today’s problem is not too little oil, but too much. America is producing so much crude it is running out of storage space. Tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, where most U.S. oil is traded, are reaching their capacity of 85 million barrels, and new ones are being built.
Even though gasoline prices have been back on the rise for a few weeks, analysts expect the over-supply to send them dropping again in the spring.
So head to the gasoline station and fill up that thirsty SUV. Start driving. If you don’t, the poor folks in Oklahoma are going to be swimming in oil.
…
So are the doomsayers thinking oil will go up or down? I want to get the semantics straight.
‘On the demand side, King noted that China’s economy, the world’s second largest, appeared to be struggling, while a rising US dollar, a “headwind” for the US economy, had put pressure on emerging-market currencies.’
‘King also pointed to the stubborn oil bulls, the big speculators maintaining significant net long positions, or bets that crude prices will go up. Their bets have left the market more vulnerable to another downswing if and when they exit the marketplace.’
‘King told the website: “I still believe we’re going to go below $40 and you’re going to have a look at the lows. I think it’s going to happen faster now than people think. I look for facts. I look for the reality of production decline, and, today, we’re not seeing it.”
“I look at other commodity markets: the speculator is short Arabica [coffee], the speculator is short natgas futures. And in crude oil, he’s [net long] long 300,000 barrels of WTI alone, and I think, God, just imagine if he went even. It would be a bloodbath. People who think this will be a V-shape [rebound] and off we go again will be mistaken.”
Not much oil being used here:
‘Urbanization represents a ‘huge engine’ for the country in sustaining economic expansion and driving aspirations to be a middle-income nation. But, along the way, the mechanism failed for some, with some newly built high-rises or even entire districts standing empty.’
“So their idea is, if we build it, they will come. And this is what happens. There is this idea that if we get the government to give us the policies to build, if we can get the industries to come in, then we can get the policies to bring people in. The difficult part is you have to bring all these three parts in to create a complete economic engine,” I-MCF President Einar Tangen said.’
‘In Kangbashi, this huge engine came to a standstill with the unexpected slump in coal prices. Apartments were built, but people never came. Mr. Wen Qingliang was one of the very few residents we have met on road. He’s reluctant to comment on the emptiness, and says that the government is still working to bring more people in.’
“Recently, we had several new schools that started classes in the city. Hopefully, that will bring more families to settle down here,” Wen said.’
There’s a video at the link.
“So their idea is, if we build it, they will come.”
Field of Dreams approaches work great in the movies. Not so sure how effective they are in the case of command-and-control economies in the real world.
If we lend it, they will come.
“… while a rising US dollar, a “headwind” for the US economy …”
Not trying to steal this thread or anything like that but …
Isn’t it strange - tragic even - that a strong currency is considered to be a headwind?
The “strong” dollar is solely a function of other major currencies being even more debased by their central bankers than ours. The dollar has the most remaining fingers in the leper colony - that “strength” is purely relative. When the Fed’s deranged money printing catches up with us, we are going to see hyperinflation and a dollar collapse.
I’ve watched relentless inflation for decades. If this is a correction, will we be getting a big dose of something else, or is it more of the same?
I’m paying roughly 60c per liter for gas in NY. Across the border in Canada, it is still up around $1.10/l. Kind of contrary to the Hessel theory.
And the irony is the Fed is supposed to be helping the working person by somehow “managing” the employment rate, but this action of managing the employment rate ultimately results in diminishing the buying power of the money that an employee earns.
But slowly diminishing the buying power over 20 years is better than doing it over 20 minutes. Extend and pretend. Extend and pretend.
We’re all dead in the long run.
With deflation as a result of collapsing demand, it’s hard to imagine selling something at any price.
Keep slashing and get ahead of the market.
“But slowly diminishing the buying power over 20 years is better than doing it over 20 minutes.”
Reminds me of he best way to boil a frog.
When the Fed’s deranged money printing catches up with us, we are going to see hyperinflation and a dollar collapse ??
Or, the economy may be much weaker than what is offered…Add to that, the changing patterns of employment itself (changing demographics, part time employment, underemployed etc.) and you can make a case that we are in for more deflation rather than hyperinflation…
“But slowly diminishing the buying power over 20 years is better than doing it over 20 minutes. ”
Especially if most of your baby boomers are going to be gone in 20 years.
Or, to expand the frog analogy; there are three froggie options:
1. Add more water to the pot to distribute the heat so that it never boils.
2. Heat very slowly so that the water evaporates away before it gets hot enough to boil.
3. Extend and pretend long enough for the frog to die of natural causes; then let the water boil.
Dead frogs pay no interest.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-03/15/content_19814969.htm
Excerpt from link that will soon post:
It is easy to realize the 7 percent growth, a lower target than previous years, given China’s huge economic size, Premier Li said. “We should pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of the economy, so as to ensure the steady and healthy economic growth in the long run.”
Premier Li allayed the foreign reporters’ worries on the future of Chinese economy, and said the government will strengthen its well-targeted macro-control policies to keep the steady economic growth, guaranteeing enough jobs be created and price inflation be checked.
The rational-range economic growth, high saving rates and reform of government debt platform and the financial sector ensure that the government has the ability to avoid regional and systematic financial crisis, despite the slight increase of bad loans, which is still lower conventional international standard.
“We allow some individual cases of financial risks to happen, and they should be settled through market-based methods,” Li said.
Li denied that China has entered or exported deflation. “China is actually at the receiving end of deflation, and ‘deflated’ by the drop in staple commodity prices in the world,” Li said.
“Chinese government still has plenty of tools at its disposal … to keep a delicate balance between restructuring and growth,” said Li.
Consider that you’re a tool.
You can call names and attempt to shoot the messenger. However, it does not change the fact that based on purchasing power, China is already the world’s biggest economy. It will have the absolute biggest economy by 2020. It still have hundreds of millions of people to move from peasant farming to a modern economy. Those “ghost” cities were built in anticipation of their arrival. They will be filled just like the iron ore from Australia will get used. however at 7% growth it takes longer than 10%, but it is only the difference between doubling an economy in 7 years and doubling in 10.
If they are doing so well Adan, why have they cut interest rates and lowered the reserve requirements ??
If they are doing so well Adan, why have they cut interest rates and lowered the reserve requirements ??
When inflation is falling interest rates normally fall otherwise you are allowing real interest rates to rise. They are cutting interest rates to prevent this from happening a further slow growth. China has an around 7% growth target and it will meet it. As explained above they have more than enough tools to meet it and unlike the U.S. they have their interest rates set well above the inflation rate so they have a lot of room to cut them.
They are cutting interest rates to prevent this from happening a further slow growth ??
So, you are acknowledging that the growth trend is down but will magically stop at 7%…?? I think you are wrong…They cut interest rates and lowered reserve requirements because they are scared that it is headed much lower than 7%…If they knew for sure that they were going to get growth at 7%, why cut rates at all…??
Consider that you are deceived.
I was one of the first to see that China was reaching natural resource and other constraints that would slow growth, at 10% growth I was a bear at 7% growth I am a bull. Unlike many on this board, when the facts change my opinion changes.
The fact is China’s GDP growth has collapsed 50% since 2008…… And falling.
“Chinese government still has plenty of tools at its disposal…”
It’s like cutting off a leg he mentioned. They’ll need some sharp tools.
“…when the facts change my opinion changes.”
As do your predictions…
“…I was one of the first to see…”
Have you always been so insecure that you toot your own horn all day long for years on end, or is this a new mental disorder?
‘King also pointed to the stubborn oil bulls, the big speculators maintaining significant net long positions, or bets that crude prices will go up. Their bets have left the market more vulnerable to another downswing if and when they exit the marketplace.’
Dumbazzes
So do you have the balls to take the bet?
REFILE-Handful of supertankers holding oil as contango play fades
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:33am GMT
* Of 12 tankers booked for storage, only five filled with crude
* Tankers hold Mideast, African oil, sit off Fujairah and Malaysia
By Florence Tan and Keith Wallis
SINGAPORE, March 12 (Reuters) - Only a few of the supertankers still chartered by traders for storage are filled with crude because a play to hold cheap oil and sell it later has lost momentum after prices recovered from six-year lows more quickly than expected.
Traders had been looking for profit from storing oil and selling it later at higher prices in the so-called contango play. But the recovery in crude prices has rendered storing oil onboard tankers unprofitable, senior traders from Glencore and Statoil have said.
More than 30 tankers had been put on long-term charter at the start of this year to play the contango, but vessels still earmarked for storage have dropped to 12. Of these, only one Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC) and four Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are filled with oil, according to Thomson Reuters shipping data, shipbrokers and traders.
“What is not so easy to grasp is how many ships will actually store (oil). We will see in Q2,” said Robert Hvide Macleod, chief executive of Norway’s Frontline Management, one of the world’s largest tanker operators.
Most of the tankers booked on annual charters are now delivering crude as usual, traders and shipbrokers said.
Some traders who had earlier made the contango play have already taken profit on some of their stored oil and are looking for the next opportunity to store more.
Traders and analysts expect a supply overhang to cause prices to drop sharply again in the second quarter before recovering in the second half this year.
“Everybody agrees we’re going to recover in the second half but it’s just a matter of what happens in the second quarter,” said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Brent crude fell 60 percent from above $115 a barrel in June last year to a nearly six-year low in January at just over $45 a barrel. It has since recovered to around $60 as U.S. oil output growth slows and Middle East and North Africa supply disruptions threaten.
…
Dan, you’ve already made your bets. We’ll just watch.
How about you do you have more guts than PB?
BTW, I made one bet oil at $80 by December 2015 and $100 by December 2016 and so far everything is developing exactly as I foresaw, in fact Brent is higher that I anticipated so early, the rig count is down further, and production is falling faster, so it is actually a head of schedule.
With production rates at record highs and rising, oil inventories at record highs and growing and oil demand plummeting to record lows and falling, oil will be half by December 2015 and have yet again by 3rd quarter 2016.
Remember…. Falling prices is positively bullish and good for the economy.
Black Swans in Saudi Arabia could swiftly reverse falling oil prices.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31893070
I’m missing the connection between balls and making moronic fake bets.
People who think this will be a V-shape [rebound] and off we go again will be mistaken.
It’s what happened last time, so I suppose they are expecting history to repeat itself.
The thing is, even though gas is cheaper, I don’t feel compelled to go on a long drive just for the pleasure of it.
No, but people are compelled to trade in their Prii for SUV’s, which is effectively the same thing as you taking a long drive.
CraterRage® Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/KglNN2
Did Obama just throw Hillary under the bus?
http://nypost.com/2015/03/14/obama-adviser-behind-leak-of-hillary-clintons-e-mail-scandal/
Heh, that’s on Zero Hedge as well. Interesting. No love lost between those two camps, that’s for sure. I want to see this heat up into a volcano.
Evil vs. Evil. I love it.
He certainly did back in 2008!
State Dept. tele-workers are supposed to use fully encrypted laptops and a VPN connection through Reston, VA to connect to their respective servers. That Hillary thinks she’s above this protocol is naive.
Hillary is part of the .1% that is literally above the law. This impunity for the oligarchy has been sanctioned by the 95% of the electorate that continues to vote for the status quo.
Alas…if only Hilary were black…
Not even a smidgen can be traced to her or the White House.
“Obama senior adviser Valerie Jarrett leaked to the press details of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private e-mail address”
“But she did so through people outside the administration, so the story couldn’t be traced to her or the White House.”
For any sheeple seeking to deprogram, this might be a good start.
http://reece.liberty.me/2015/03/09/25-statist-propaganda-phrases-and-how-to-rebut-them/
Sunday funnies.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/03/15/sunday-funnies-54/
Get ready to bail out Big Oil, taxpayers. And, no doubt, the bankers who underwrote the junk bond bubble to fund shale expansion.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/13/us-government-bails-out-oil-industry-russia-pe-firms-the-saudis-venezuela-wall-street-but-slams-american-consumers/
Oil industry lobbyists must have been working the government over for months. The price of oil has plunged nearly 60% since June. Smaller oil companies are going bankrupt. Larger ones are bleeding. Energy junk-bondholders are getting massacred. Wall Street investment banks are fretting about losing the fees. Lenders are worried about their energy loans. PE firms that have funded the fracking boom are taking big losses. Venezuela is falling apart and is going to default. Russia is careening in the wrong direction. Kern County, the oil capital of California, declared a “fiscal emergency.”
They all need the price of oil to jump, and they need it to jump NOW.
Smaller oil companies are going bankrupt. Larger ones are bleeding ??
I have a question about oil production…Ben knows a bit from his Texas days..
What components that make up a oil drilling rig are fixed cost…I suspect the cost of the rig, labor etc., are pretty much fixed although I suspect they can go up or down some for a number of reasons…But, isn’t the land cost, or land lease, a major component of the cost of a barrel of oil that is produced ?? That cost, could go up or down in dramatic ways…
If a company can’t produce oil at a profit they likely shut down or go BK…Whats the value of the land or land lease now…Likely far less then allowing a new suitor to come in and effectively produce a barrel of oil at a lower price that would still be profitable…
I guess what I am thinking is that the volume of oil will continue to be produced…
“But, isn’t the land cost, or land lease, a major component of the cost of a barrel of oil that is produced ??”
Field developers pay royalties to the owners. The land itself is worthless.
“They all need the price of oil to jump, and they need it to jump NOW.”
Could this be why one of our more prolific posters is confident that oil will never touch $30 and will rise to $80 by December?
Could be. Someone told me that $80 is the threshold. Above $80… companies have some play money for contracting out for research like handling sour crude. Below $80.. companies pull R&D and other goodies and retreat back to their core business.
If a-dan is a paid shill for oil, then they might be cutting his contracts too. Maybe that’s why he diversified into shilling for China?
By the way, where in the world is Vladimir Putin? I’ve heard speculations from military coups, to a romantic sojourn with the latest mistress, to getting a facelift and just hiding his face during recovery. He’s got an appointment with some diplomats from Kyrgistan (?) tomorrow.
My guess says it’s the plastic surgery.
lolz.
Someone told you eh Donk?
Yes, someone told me.
“Get ready to bail out Big Oil, taxpayers.”
This won’t be an issue….unless the government decides to muck up oil like I does everything else.
Instead, be prepared to bail out California. One year until it runs out of water. Then what?
I hope the res of the country is preparing for the inevitable onslaught of locusts that follow droughts.
A shame that these locusts will be bipedal. Can’t exactly use any DDT-like poison on them.
Oh - on a semi-related matter…
I see that many restaurants in Seattle are shuttering Seems that they are unable to pay their workers the new $15 / hour minimum wage.
Leave it to Progressive = NeoCon economics to throw people out of work.
Wonder how long the state of Washington will be able to keep it’s no state income tax status? Not long at this rate.
So be it. Let the locals pay for their own stupidity. Becoming Illinois, New York or New Jersey has its costs.
I see that many restaurants in Seattle are shuttering Seems that they are unable to pay their workers the new $15 / hour minimum wage.
Wasn’t that going to be phased in over a few years?
He’s full of shit.
“I see that many restaurants in Seattle are shuttering Seems that they are unable to pay their workers the new $15 / hour minimum wage.”
Proof, please. BS doesn’t fly.
Catfight! Clinton vs Obama!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/clintons-furious-obama-after-valerie-jarrett-linked-email-leak
“So who does Obama prefer to have as his successor? Well, all signs point to Elizabeth Warren. “With Obama’s approval,” this source continued, “Valerie has been holding secret meetings with Martin O’Malley [the former Democratic governor of Maryland] and [Massachusetts Sen.] Elizabeth Warren.”
Fauxahontus has repeatedly said she isn’t running. She did, however, run to the defense of the Fed by opposing the “Audit the Fed” bill, which shows her true colors and constituency despite her populist pretensions.
populist pretensions.
The entire welfare state has been built on fiat currency, take that away and it collapses like a sand castle.
Like they say, fake indian but a true fraudster. She is qualified to fill obama’s shoes.
She is qualified to fill obama’s shoes.
They probably where many of the same shoes on their night out. BTW, been falling the Putin saga? The MSM media had him dead or in a coma. The truth is the 62 year old Putin has been with his 31 year old girlfriend after she just had his baby. Girlfriend half his age? I bet he would have one a third of his age, if she would not be too young to drink with at most bars.
http://nypost.com/2015/03/15/swiss-media-reveals-more-about-putins-girlfriend-baby/
where=wear.
I’d have babies with her. MANY. She’s freakin’ HAWT.
Something suitable for a 24 year old.
“The truth is the 62 year old Putin has been with his 31 year old girlfriend after she just had his baby.”
Is his ex-wife, Lyudmila Putina, going to walk away with half of his fortune?
Like it makes any difference.
Oh, heck no, BUT at least us peons might get treated to a bit of entertainment and that’s the least these turd rockets could do for us. I, for one, would welcome it. Beats the heck outta Ferguson.
Well, all signs point to Elizabeth Warren ??
Warren is the back-up QB…If for whatever reason Hillary exits stage left, Elizabeth will enter stage right…In either case, my guess for VP will be the congressman from texas…Castro…He is hispanic, he is 40, and would be 48 after two terms…
A woman for President, a young successful hispanic congressman for VP…Thats is a formidable opponent that the republican party (in particular this current group) will likely not be able to overcome…
To me, the interesting aspect of this whole issue is not so much the upcoming election, but Valerie Jarrett, who, I believe, is the de facto president of the US and has been since Obama’s inauguration. I’ve done some reading on the woman and her relationship to the Obamas and I must say, it’s quite a troika. It makes for very interesting reading. Of course, you have to discount the more sensational and partisan aspects of the articles written, but in the end, I very much came away with the sense that she is the one in charge.
Gawd, I can’t imagine what kind of hell the post-presidency will be for the Obamas, because it seems that wherever they go, whatever they do, she will be there.
Spoken like a mindless political insider.
I would also be very confortable voting for Jim Webb….
He is my candidate. I will be voting for him, even if it is a write-in.
I will be voting for him, even if it is a write-in ??
I won’t…I can stomach the idea that this group of republicans would control all three branches of the government…
can = can’t
I would vote for Jim Webb, hands down, over the other contenders to date, with the possible exception of Rand Paul.
Only an idiot would vote for Warren.
It’s interesting that for decades, Republicans have been voting women, Hispanics and blacks into office, yet Democrats think they are the only “side” doing so.
Worry not, scdave. I won’t be voting Republican. Yet, if Warren runs, I’ll be actively canvassing against her. Just because O won’t be voting doesn’t mean I can’t work to change people’s minds away from Warren.
Worry not, scdave. I won’t be voting Republican ??
Then we are on the same page….
No, we’re not.
I won’t be voting Democrat/Progressive, either.
Only an idiot would vote for Warren.
Since 95% of the electorate are idiots, that should make her a shoo-in.
LMAO!
“With Obama’s approval” — gad. Our 44th President: Little Lord Flauntleroy. He needs knickers and a bow tie.
Hardly surprising that the oligarchy’s propaganda outlets cover up the crimes of the .1%, to include child molestation. But while we still have an Internet and some semi-independent newspapers, they can still get called out on their journalistic omerta.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2995189/Beleaguered-BBC-chief-abuse-inquiry-cover-claims-personally-blocked-release-information-concerning-Jimmy-Savile-probe.html
So in the ongoing “where’s Putin?” saga, he’s supposedly in bed with a bad cold. Could he possibly have succumbed to a cough - a Kalashni-cough?
I slay me….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11473389/Vladimir-Putin-in-bed-with-a-bad-cold-watching-Crimea-documentary.html
More likely related to birth of his love child, they might just be together by Skype of something similar but the timing is too coincidental. Congratulations Vlad the impaler, you are an inspiration to men or 50 everywhere.
or=over, yes, I need to check for the self corrections.
Quick check: Putin is 62 years old. When his kid is in college Putin will be 80.
Wealthy older men don’t care if they are “too old” to be fathers. Many young women don’t care as long as the old men have $ (or rubles).
They can afford nannies to run after the little toddler(s).
Never mind that the kid is going to be a visible reminder of why only the young and healthy should procreate.
As long as the incubator is young, the kid will probably be OK.
Clint Eastwood’s youngest son Scott is 28.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/phoenix-area/1394655-another-report-says-housing-prices-will-2.html
Does not seem like a basket case to me.
Clint eastwood is 84. 56 year difference.
Here is the real link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Eastwood
Can anyone on this board tell me where I can get a reading of the daily OVERALL volume of stocks sold on the Dow? I was told by Scottrade they don’t have this data, whereas they used to. Why aren’t they tracking it? Why aren’t they able to give me this info now? The volume of stocks sold is the best indicator of an imminent crash, and I want to know it.
Can anyone on this board tell me where I can get a reading of the daily OVERALL volume of stocks sold on the Dow ??
There are several on the board that will be able to help you…
Falling.Housing.Prices.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^DJI+Historical+Prices
Put ^DJI in the quotes text box on Yahoo Finance, then when the Dow page opens, click “historical prices” link on the left. Volume shows up in the same table on the next page. It’s daily, so there you go.
Can anyone on this board tell me where I can get a reading of the daily OVERALL volume of stocks sold on the Dow?
HFT trading now accounts for 70% or more of the daily volume, distorting the overall health of the market.
“Why aren’t they able to give me this info now?”
They aren’t on your side. They’re interested in fees, and as many as possible.
Ron Paul explains how the U.S. government engineered the green light for the American Empire (25 years war and going strong).
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2015/march/14/a-green-light-for-the-american-empire/
What this country is doing to its own citizenry is as bad as anything it is doing elsewhere.
The damage is huge and the causes are huge that most people shrug and have no time to see this stuff. And they just continue to support the same failed polices as if the policies will work next time. It frustrates me.
I looked into some more of this last night. Found a link to ‘Operation Northwoods.” That was an early 1960s plan by the U.S. hawks to stage Cuban terrorist attacks and innocent American people would be killed as part of the plan, and blamed on Cuba. JFK rejected that. I’m thinking 9/11 could be the “Operation Northwoods” that led to the escalation of the American Empire. It’s a lust for power.
And I wonder what became of April Glaspie? I saw a U.K. article written in 2005 asking exactly that. They say the State Department has tucked her away since the 1990 meeting with Saddam Hussein.
There are a lot of angles, like I say. And all the pieces are out there, easy to see. They cannot be hidden. This is not tin-foil hat guessing or conspiracy theory crap. It’s out there because it cannot be hidden, but there is too much information for people to even care.
Main Street U.S.A. and innocent people abroad are the victims in all this. There are too many victims to cover up the crime.
And all the pieces are out there, easy to see.
Here’s one - air date for this episode was March 4, 2001.
“The Lone Gunmen” tv series - first episode predicted World Trade Center attacks
Holy crap! Thanks!
Carlin, Hicks and Stanhope discuss Nationalism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G17Qf5nrLw&feature=youtu.be
What this country is doing to its own citizenry is as bad as anything it is doing elsewhere.
This is what the citizenry - dumbed down to where they are more fittingly called zombies - voted for and continue to vote for.
And when you point out their logical fallacies they resent you.
All empires eventually end. Some guy on Lew Rockwell predicts the USA has at most 10 years left in its Imperialism before it has to withdraw from being world cop.
The red light will happen but it’s hard to predict when and how.
Potential redlights:
1) China has been suspected to quietly get on good terms with arab countries over the years. And there is a lot of talk that it wishes to make a new world currency to replace the Dollar. Once the Dollar is replaced, the USA loses a lot of power.
2) Wage parity with the tech emerging nations India and China will mean an end to outsourcing. Combined with the retirement of the boomers, the wages in the USA will have to increase. The U.S. government actually wants high paid STEM jobs in the USA, obviously to feed its tax revenues and war machines. So there is a force within working against itself. The fading away of the boomers will open wage hikes in the void.
3) Interest rates as a result of #2 above will rise, as the government will have to fight inflation. For every 1% interest rate hike, an additional $170 billion in interest on the federal debt is added. This also will crush some defense spending.
4) American sentiment can change. Word can get out. The middle class has been all but destroyed since 1990 and when they realize the defense spending and Imperialism has been at their expense, the citizens will take their pitchforks to Washington and demand an end to imperialism.
I think the key to saying the U.S. imperialism - :”world cop” business has at most ten years is the retirement of most of the boomers. Lots of skilled engineers leaving the workforce. Heck, I will keep working, in my later years but I will be employed by an international company and paid in cryptocurrency with no withholding.
The question is “what do you do financially to prepare for the end of the empire?”
Do you say we are screwed and everyone of us will certainly be slaves, nothing to personally do?
Or do you think about urban survival, rural survival, do you have a bugout bag ready? Do you have cryptocurrency in paper wallets? Do you have silver and platinum? Do you have cash tucked away?
Within 5 years I want to have some place I rent where I can have a chance of surviving. Deep Cycle batteries, generator, a huge pantry of canned goods, water. This does not have to be out of the city, I do not want to leave the urban areas.
And most important it behooves us to be very involved in our local communities and know all our neighbors. Offer help when they have problems and so on.
+1. I think your 5 year timeline will be about 3-4 years too late, however.
Obama Jokes: “If I did not love America, I wouldn’t have moved here from Kenya”
by The Hill | Kyle Balluck | March 15, 2015
President Obama late Saturday joked about the controversy surrounding former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s use of a private email account during a white-tie dinner in Washington, D.C.
According to a White House pool report, Obama told guests at the Gridiron Club dinner that he was once known as the young, tech-savvy candidate.
But now, “Hillary has a server in her house! I didn’t even know you could have one of those. I am so far behind.”
And Obama’s response to New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s (R) comment that he didn’t love America drew big laughs.
“If I did not love America, I wouldn’t have moved here from Kenya,” Obama said.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-03/15/content_19814967.htm
Chinese leaders fear an economic property slump
March 9, 2015
China’s premier, Li Keqiang, has the task to stop its collapse across China’s vital, but shakey property sector
http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/live-news/2015/3/chinese-leaders-fear-an-economic-property-slump.html
Ok that is it for the morning probably for the day, the PTB know they have but a few weeks before the decline in oil production gets too large to ignore, it should be interesting to see what they do to hit oil prices so they can get out of their short positions, the stock market will be collateral damage and so will the real economy.
Should be interesting to see whether the PTB keep publishing made-up stories about cotango tradrrs storing oil at sea in the hopes of driving up the price.
ft dot com
Last updated: March 9, 2015 4:03 pm
Traders left adrift as oil storage trade loses its lustre
Anjli Raval, Oil and Gas Correspondent
Tanker Glut Signals 25% Slump In Freight Rates This Year…Oil tankers are anchored near the Port of Long Beach, California, U.S., on Thursday, Dec. 31, 2009. A surplus of idled oil tankers, which would stretch 26 miles if lined up end to end, may signal a 25 percent slump in freight rates this year. The ships will unload 26 percent of the crude and oil products they are storing in six months, adding to vessel supply and pushing rates for supertankers down to an average of $30,000 a day, compared with $40,212 now. Photographer: Tim Rue/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
The world’s biggest oil traders rushed to hire supertankers at the start of the year. The idea was to buy cheap barrels of crude, store it at sea and lock in a profit by selling contracts in the futures market.
But only a couple of the almost 40 vessels originally chartered to hold crude offshore for up to 12 months are doing so, shipbrokers and analysts say.
It was hoped that the “contango” structure in the crude markets — jargon for when prices for future delivery exceed current rates — would resemble the one in 2008-09, when 100m barrels of oil were at sea. But for now, this trade is not looking as lucrative.
When the price of internationally traded Brent crude oil slumped to about $45 a barrel in January, the near month price for delivery of crude was $12 lower than that in 12 months time. Since the price has rebounded to about $60 a barrel, the difference has narrowed to less than $7.
Keeping oil on vessels is an expensive strategy that is profitable only if the spread is wide enough to account for shipping and insurance costs.
“If you look at the crude contango curve, it’s got to pay for the storage, and it’s got to pay for the all the time value and money to put the crude in there,” Alex Beard, head oil trader at Glencore, told analysts and investors last week. Current conditions are not “attractive enough to encourage large amounts of floating storage”, he added.
…
It’s hard to make money by storing oil at sea when the price has yet to bottom out when you set the oil to sail.
It’s hard to make money by storing oil at sea when the price has yet to bottom out when you set the oil to sail.
Not at all!! It is normally an arbitrage play, meaning that once the position is entered, its profitability is not a function of the underlying commodity price.
The coming climate court
By Chris Horner - - Sunday, March 8, 2015
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recently circulated an email breathlessly titled, “Governments on Track to Reaching Paris 2015 Universal Climate Agreement — Negotiating Text Officially Published.”
The message triumphantly claimed that “Another key step towards a new, universal climate change agreement has just been taken as the negotiating text for the agreement was officially issued by the [UNFCCC].” This refers to the upcoming talks in Paris in December on a successor pact to the 1997 Kyoto global warming treaty.
This text agreed to for negotiation by the federal government includes a remarkable proposal. Buried deep inside, it proposes an “International Climate Justice Tribunal in order to oversee, control and sanction the fulfilment [sic] of and compliance with the obligations of Annex I and Annex II Parties under this agreement and the [1992 UNFCCC climate treaty].”
Translated, this means that even if the Obama administration refuses to call the Paris agreement a treaty, as it already telegraphed its position: A new climate court would hold us to its terms — even the terms of a prior, “voluntary” agreement.
That the Obama administration would agree to even negotiate such an entanglement is all the more outrageous given the president’s belief that the Senate’s advice and consent is something necessary only when it works to his political advantage.
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/8/chris-horner-paris-climate-agreement-a-global-powe/#ixzz3UTPbgBpO
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter
Kerry compares himself to Churchill & Lincoln; Scorn follows
by Michael Dorstewitz | Bizpac Review | March 15, 2015
Secretary of State John Kerry compared himself to Winston Churchill, Abraham Lincoln and other great historical luminaries for having the courage and tenacity to tackle the most heinous enemy plaguing mankind — climate change.
“My heroes are people who dared to take on great challenges without knowing for certain what the outcome would be,” Kerry said in an address to the Atlantic Council on Thursday.
“Lincoln took risks, Gandhi took risks, Churchill took risks, Dr. King took risks, Mandela took risks, but that doesn’t mean that every risk-taker is a role model.”
Calling climate change “one of the biggest threats facing our planet today,” Kerry said it must be addressed head on, just like terrorism, extremism and nuclear proliferation.
“Thousands Crowd Brazil’s Streets: Demand Military Intervention & Rousseff Resignation, Impeachment”
“It appears the ‘people’ are growing more and more dissatisfied with their corrupt and greedy leaders across the world. As we noted recently, Brazil’s economy is imploding, consumer sentiment is at record lows, and with the Petrobras scandal providing a glimpse at just how deep the corruption might go, Brazilians are revolting. Hundreds of thousands are crowding the streets in several regional Brazilian capitals, dominated ironically by the middle and upper classes. Demands for “Dilma Out” and “Impeach Dilma” are also interspersed with calls for a quasi-coup and “military intervention.”"
While the sheeple here slumber on.
Clearly, Brazil is not ready to host the 2016 Olympics.
Should’ve bee awarded to Santiago, instead. Alas, Chile didn’t apply.
That’s because Chile seems to be one of the SA countries that has its sh*t together. It doesn’t need the headaches and economic loss. Screw the Olympics anyway. It’s a meaningless, expensive ritual anymore. Bombings, doping scandals, cheating, posturing, etc.
I don’t even bother watching Olympic events. Most of the events fall into the “Who cares?” category. Plus the endless stream of commercials is mind numbing.
Economic Apocalypse and the Transnational Power Elite
March 9, 2015
Estulin’s research has led him to conclude that the true rulers are not elected. Rather, they effectively vet and choose those vying for public office who will carry out broader agendas beyond public view. “Many years ago,” he recalls, “when I began researching these people I came across them by chance. I asked myself a fairly simple question, ‘If presidents and prime ministers of countries don’t really have much to say in terms of real body politics, then who runs the world from behind the scenes?”
memoryholeblog.com/…/03/09/economic-apocalypse-and-the-transnational-power-elite/ - 283k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-03-15 11:34:50
Economic Apocalypse and the Transnational Power Elite
memoryholeblog.com/2015/03/09/economic-apocalypse-and-the-transnational-power-elite/
Estulin’s research has led him to conclude that the true rulers are not elected
Tell us something we don’t know.
Venezuela offers a preview of what America will look like once Comrade Pelosi and her ideological fellow travelers in the DNC install their corrupt, one-party, permanent Democrat Supermajority. Watch and learn, ‘Muricans, watch and learn.
http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelas-maduro-given-decree-powers-rest-2015-193802736.html
Oh, the humanity! (Brent & WTI oil crashing hard).
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
there is a shortage of oil in ca they claim.
This is setting up exactly as AlbqDan forecast. Or so he claims.
30 oil is around the corner cause the economy is dropping off a cliff without QE goosing assets.
All the QE they can muster can’t counter collapsing demand for oil, housing, commodities, etc.
It’s hard to believe a regular HBB poster could genuinely be sufficiently dense to miss something so obvious.
P.S. Just wait until rates normalize. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Soup kitchens and garbage can fires?
Along with housing.
Massachusetts Housing Prices Crashing Hard
http://www.zillow.com/ma/home-values/
Foreclosure, Spanish style.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/15/don-quijones-spain-forced-evictions-criminalize-solidarity-platform-mortgage-victims-pah/
Rex Nutting
Opinion: America is full of slackers and deadbeats who won’t work
Published: Mar 13, 2015 6:00 a.m. ET
That’s what some conservatives allege — but the numbers say otherwise
MarketWatch
A total of 148 million of 320 million U.S. residents have a job.
By Rex Nutting
Columnist
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — If you’re inclined to think that America has too many people who take, and not enough who make, then you’re probably skeptical that the economy really is improving.
The drop in the official unemployment rate from a high of 10% in late 2009 to 5.5% in February is simply a hoax, the skeptics say, because there are 93 million Americans who’ve dropped out of the labor market, refusing to work or even look for a job. And if you didn’t look for a job in the past month, you aren’t counted as unemployed.
The fear that America will go broke if fewer than half of us are working is credible only if we ignore history.
The unemployment rate isn’t 5.5%, as the government claims. The real unemployment rate is over 35%, they say, because about 102 million people aren’t working, including about 9 million who are officially counted as unemployed and the 93 million who’ve given up.
Now, it is true that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 92.9 million adults were “not in the labor force” in February, an all-time high. That’s up from 79.2 million as the economy slumped into a recession just over seven years ago.
The share of civilian non-institutionalized adults who participate in the labor force (either working or actively searching for a job) has declined from 66% on the eve of the recession to only 62.8% in February, close to a 37-year low.
That means three of every eight adults is just sitting on his ass, taking from the rest of us!
Don’t tell Zero Hedge or Breitbart or Sen. Ted Cruz, but it’s much worse than that! Using exclusive data from the Census Bureau provided to me on the Internet, I’ve learned that a majority of Americans are doing nothing while the rest of us slave all day long!
It’s not 102 million who aren’t working; it’s 172 million!
The government is hiding in plain sight the brutal fact that only 46% of Americans are working (148 million of a total population of 320 million)! If you consider everybody and not only the 250 million who are over 16 that the BLS counts, only 49% of us are in the labor force.
…
These damned slackers won’t work 48-hrs/wk for $7.25/hr to buy that $500k starter home? Next they’ll be demanding benefits. The country is doomed… doomed I tell ‘ya!
It’s hard to understand why anyone would bother working when the obvious path to riches is to simply own stuff, going into debt if necessary to acquire it, and just hold on until the wealth effect of rising asset values makes you richer than Croesus.
I am delighted that I had no time over the weekend to fuel up my car at Costco. Hence I will get to enjoy the price tomorrow evening after the further drop in oil prices currently underway. Deflation is a beautiful thing if you are on the right side of the trade!