Bits Bucket for March 22, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Here is an interesting scenario: using a reverse mortgage to buy a new home.
I friend is purchasing a new home for $800k and putting $200k (25%) down. The end. He never makes a house payment for the rest of his (or his spouse’s) life.
It’s a reverse mortgage (insured by you know who). I think he pays a 1/2% insurance at closing. The idea is that over the next 24 years (the life expectancy of the youngest spouse), the appreciation on the $800k property will exceed the accrual on $600k at 4% (plus a $200k cushion).
Fascinating! Now even HA can afford to load up the truck and move to Beverly….Hills that is. Swimmin’ pools and movie stars!
appreciation is in the bag! You can bank on that!
Yes! A house that buys itself! A true miracle!
Visit your local banker and MAKE IT HAPPEN!
Appreciation doesn’t matter to the homeowner…..the stakeholder is now the government. The homeowners risk is $200,000….to his heirs.
“…to his heirs.”
I wonder how many folks here and elsewhere view this as a win…the screwing over of the “heirs”, I mean.
Today’s thieves are cowardly…can’t even muster the guts to steal from those who alive.
Equally as bad are the so-called “heirs” who feel entitled to everything their parents worked hard for so they don’t have to contribute jack sh!t. This country would be a lot better off if more people gave everything to charity, and made these wastes of oxygen work for a living.
This country would be a lot better off if more people gave everything to charity, and made these wastes of oxygen work for a living.
The founding fathers were totally against the concept of multiple generations of “heirs”. The Original American concept did not include billionaires fortune being passed down to heirs for hundreds of years. In fact, in 1776 there were no American billionaires in today’s dollars.
Estate tax and the founding fathers
You can’t take it with you
http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2010/10/estate_tax_and_founding_fathers
If there was one thing the Revolutionary generation agreed on — and those guys who dress up like them at Tea Party conventions most definitely do not — it was the incompatibility of democracy and inherited wealth.
With Thomas Jefferson taking the lead in the Virginia legislature in 1777, every Revolutionary state government abolished the laws of primogeniture and entail that had served to perpetuate the concentration of inherited property. Jefferson cited Adam Smith, the hero of free market capitalists everywhere, as the source of his conviction that (as Smith wrote, and Jefferson closely echoed in his own words), “A power to dispose of estates for ever is manifestly absurd. The earth and the fulness of it belongs to every generation, and the preceding one can have no right to bind it up from posterity. Such extension of property is quite unnatural.” Smith said: “There is no point more difficult to account for than the right we conceive men to have to dispose of their goods after death.”
The states left no doubt that in taking this step they were giving expression to a basic and widely shared philosophical belief that equality of citizenship was impossible in a nation where inequality of wealth remained the rule. North Carolina’s 1784 statute explained that by keeping large estates together for succeeding generations, the old system had served “only to raise the wealth and importance of particular families and individuals, giving them an unequal and undue influence in a republic” and promoting “contention and injustice.” Abolishing aristocratic forms of inheritance would by contrast “tend to promote that equality of property which is of the spirit and principle of a genuine republic.”
Others wanted to go much further; Thomas Paine, like Smith and Jefferson, made much of the idea that landed property itself was an affront to the natural right of each generation to the usufruct of the earth, and proposed a “ground rent” — in fact an inheritance tax — on property at the time it is conveyed at death, with the money so collected to be distributed to all citizens at age 21, “as a compensation in part, for the loss of his or her natural inheritance, by the introduction of the system of landed property.”
MacBeth: I wonder how many folks here and elsewhere view this as a win…the screwing over of the “heirs”, I mean.
I’ve considered Mel Watt’s belief in housing as a wealth building tool. It can be a source of wealth for the next generation - the owners die, leaving the house to heirs, to either be occupied or sold. This can work provided the house is not in a decaying area, like Detroit for example.
If things like this were limited only to people who could put $200,000 down there’d be no problems.
Instead they are pimping 3 percent mortgages. No money down, low monthly payment, easy credit ripoffs, good times
You cannot get a reverse mortgage without substantial equity. It all depends on your age, loan and equity.
There is no “equity” on a depreciating asset Jingle_Fraud.
its all about leverage and then dumping the losses on the taxpayer.
Who paid the $600,000 to the seller? Does he have to pay property taxes? And $200,000 out of $800,000 is NOT substantial equity.
It’s called underwater.
“$200,000 out of $800,000 is NOT substantial equity.”
75% LTV, guaranteed by federal taxpayers — LOL!
This doesn’t sound quite right… AFAIK the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program requires — very roughly — 50% down payment so that the equity secures the loan. It’s basically a deferred interest loan, payable after you kick the bucket
“(
insuredpaid for by you know who)”Do private sector lenders offer comparable terms? If not, what is the closest-value private sector deal one can get to this ‘federally-insured’ offer?
Answering that would seem like a reasonable first step to determining the amount of federal subsidy built into this scheme.
I believe the program is set up to be zero cost. The premium included in the closing costs covers some risk, along with the equity cushion.
There are no private insurers because the investment period is too long for private money to see a payback.
Of course it’s zero cost. Until it isn’t. It’s a fraaaaaaaaaud right from the get go.
So he gets to pay the carrying costs on two houses?
One of the reasons the poor get forced out of gentrifying areas is they can no longer afford the carrying costs.
Maybe the millenials aren’t all moving by uber car to a condo in the city?
Here’s the usual media narrative: Millennials prefer cities to suburbs. They love renting lofts and disdain single-family homes; they ride the subway (or take an Uber) because they barely know how to drive. Where their parents wanted green lawns and cul-de-sacs, today’s young Americans want walkable neighborhoods and local bars with plenty of craft beers on draft.
The numbers tell a different story. Whether by choice or economic circumstance, young Americans are still more likely to leave the city for the suburbs than the other way around.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data released this week, 529,000 Americans ages 25 to 29 moved from cities out to the suburbs in 2014; only 426,000 moved in the other direction. Among younger millennials, those in their early 20s, the trend was even starker: 721,000 moved out of the city, compared with 554,000 who moved in.1 Somewhat more people in both age groups currently live in the suburbs than in the city.
So why has the “city-loving millennials” story gained so much traction? Kolko has a theory: As American cities have become safer and more expensive, they have become increasingly dominated by the affluent and well-educated — exactly the people who drive the media narrative.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/think-millennials-prefer-the-city-think-again/
Region VIII
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150322_071328_742-LKjVCWpP.jpg
That would be a great place for some suburbs. With plenty of parking.
Not much for the farmers I see.
Not much for the farmers I see.
Au contraire! All the white stuff you see in that picture melts and flows downhill to farmers on both sides of the continental divide.
As the millenials marry and have children, they want to move to a house located in a good school district, preferably close to a nice park. But you have to drive a long way from downtown to find any of that which is affordable.
Even in the suburbs here in Seattle, the new “smart growth” (just read that term, along with the mandatory “vibrant”, in a propaganda piece by a local major developer in Sunday’s paper) is high-density, along yet-to-be-built light-rail lines that are costing taxpayers billions of dollars per mile and won’t be done for another 10-15 years). Right out of the U.N. Agenda 21 playbook!
With the way housing demand is collapsing and prices are falling, it seems ‘millenials’ nor anyone else is interested in a house. Not in Seattle anyways.
Follow the money. The narrative does. The developers just want to sell condos and junk half paid for by their corrupt governmental partners doling out tax money.
Instead, Millineals in their 30s with kids are certainly waking up to the idea that good free public schools and a place your kids can ride their bikes make sense.
All downtowns are full of crazy homeless people also.
“good free public schools”
Heh. Those “good” schools aren’t free, on account of people have to pay the Eloi tax (see HG Wells’ Time Machine) to send their kids to one of those schools. What is an Eloi tax? You have to pay for an overpriced home in a gated community in a specific school district. The realtors here in Florida know ALL about the Eloi tax and push the fear button real hard to get people to pay it. And it’s not even the initial price of the home, it’s the year after year tax assessment, plus all the fees associated with the gated community: HOA, CDD, etc.
You’ll pay far more property tax and HOA fees on that downtown condo, and since the local publics are full of gang bangers and illegals you’ll have to send the kids to a private school.
Private school is another form of Eloi tax
this goes with my belief there never was anything called white flight….parents noticed the new crop of kids were on a jail track instead of a college track and moved….so did blacks
It was “rich flight” all along, not “white flight.”
rich flight caused by new kids being on a jail track…..that makes more sense.
All downtowns are full of crazy homeless people also ??
Not really….
“…As American cities have become safer and more expensive, they have become increasingly dominated by the affluent and well-educated…”
All places are now dominated by these people. Ben posted links to articles the other day about Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and how the working people could neither find, nor afford a place to live. What we have is the biggest real estate grab in the history of the world, by the wealthy, for the wealthy.
“…by the wealthy, for the wealthy.”
It pretty much gets down to who can gain control of massive amounts of printing press money and channel it into real estate investments.
What we have is the biggest real estate grab in the history of the world, by the wealthy, for the wealthy.
I thought being a renter for life was a good thing.
You aren’t a renter. Are you pimping housing again?
Celebrity house flip fail. But we applaud their vision.
Finally! Sarah Jessica Parker Sells Her $20M Village Townhouse
Located just off Fifth Avenue in Greenwich Village’s Gold Coast in NYC, Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick’s house-flip project finally sold, but for much less than the couple had hoped for. According to Curbed, they scooped up the 6,800-square-foot Greek revival townhouse two years ago for $18.9 million. After extensively renovating the home, they listed it for $25 million in hopes of turning a $6 million profit but dropped the price to $19.95 million. While it wasn’t the most lucrative investment, we applaud their vision. The redesigned home offers five levels of beautifully styled interiors with a covetable outdoor space - not to mention the extra perk of having the Village, SoHo, and Chelsea as an extended playground. Take a look!
https://celebrity.yahoo.com/photos/finally-sarah-jessica-parker-sells-slideshow/inside-sarah-jessica-parker-matthew-brodericks-22-million-photo-173506125.html
” While it wasn’t the most lucrative investment”
Bought for $18.9 million, did extensive renovations, sold two years later for $19.95 million. I’m guessing several million dollar loss. They should stick with show biz.
You mean the remodel didn’t cost $40/sq foot?
Some of these renovations, and Manhattan real estate in general, remind me of the high-end art world. The art itself isn’t worth millions. People spend millions just to SAY they spent millions.
And I hope that the furnishings come with the townhouse. Otherwise, all they did was hose it down with white paint and maybe some hardwood. Maybe it was in horribly bad shape and needed new systems?
That bathroom photo with the big bowl bathtub is crying out for some Cheerios.
lol
That place looks so sterile it’s depressing. Were they going for the laboratory look? Disgusting.
The teepee in the kids room is Racist.
Will the almighty dollar manage to climb back up off the map after the Fed’s sucker punch, or is it down for the count now?
Will the piper ever be paid or will “just print more money” somehow work forever?
I’m facing a margin call on monday. Been depressed all weekend.
It only has to work long enough for the policy makers to retire. After that they won’t care because it’ll be “someone else’s problem”.
That makes no sense. They would all have to retire the same day.
Sharp decline in U.S. dollar lifts stocks, oil
By Ryan Vlastelica
NEW YORK
Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:34pm EDT
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell sharply on Friday and posted its biggest weekly decline against the euro in more than three years, helping to drive a rally in Wall Street stocks and crude oil.
The Nasdaq posted its highest close in 15 years on Friday and had a weekly gain of 3.2 percent.
Riskier assets like equities had a strong week in general, largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday, which struck a more dovish tone than investors had expected. The Fed appeared to argue against an interest rate hike in June.
The U.S. dollar index is up more than 20 percent since mid-2014. The dollar’s strength for some time buoyed U.S. stocks because it served as evidence of a strengthening economy, but lately there have been concerns of the impact it could have on the profits of U.S. multinational companies.
U.S. crude futures had their first weekly advance of the past five, and the S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak on Friday. The euro posted its biggest weekly jump against the dollar in more than three years, while the U.S. dollar index suffered its biggest weekly drop since 2011.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 1.37 percent, its biggest one-day decline since September 2013. The euro rose 1.4 percent, to $1.0811, and the yen rose 0.61 percent against the dollar.
“This is just some counter-trend correction in the dollar and is transitory,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
…
Dollar Drop Is Worst Since 2011 as Investors Rethink Fed Policy
by Andrea Wong
9:00 PM PDT
March 20, 2015
Fed Chair Janet Yellen
The stronger greenback contributed to weaker exports that would be a “notable drag” on growth this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — The dollar slumped the most since October 2011 after the Federal Reserve reduced projections for interest-rate increases and expressed concern the dollar’s surge is weighing on exports and inflation.
The U.S. currency fell against all of its 16 major peers as banks including HSBC Holdings Plc said the 20 percent surge since August is coming to an end. Economic reports next week may show inflation remains below the Fed’s target, giving the central bank more room to maneuver.
“You always have to be careful with foreign exchange — it can move very quickly and you can’t imply anything from previous trends,” Charles St-Arnaud, senior economist at Nomura Securities International Inc., said by phone from London. “That’s what happened to the U.S. dollar.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 2.2 percent this week to 1,195.01 in New York. The gauge is up 1.9 percent this month and 5.7 percent this year.
The greenback slumped 3.1 percent this week to $1.0821 versus the euro, and fell 1.1 percent to 120.04 yen.
…
Will recurrent Fed subjugation of the dollar to extraordinary rendition be sufficient to forestall a bond market crash?
ft dot com/markets
On Wall Street
March 20, 2015 11:23 am
Dollar strength dictates Fed’s policy pep
Michael Mackenzie
Currency headwinds will limit FOMC’s scope for rate rises
100 dollar notes currency US dollar bills
©Dreamstime
Forget the idea of US interest rates “lifting off” any time soon — a view long espoused by the bond market is one belatedly being recognised by policy makers.
No matter a robust jobs market, the prospect of US interest rate policy fireworks later this year has been doused by a surging dollar and signs of the economy moderating since January.
While markets have been fixated on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee discarding its pledge to be “patient” before lifting rates, thereby providing the central bank with policy flexibility, the critical element for investors has always been the pace and extent of the next tightening cycle.
Six years of easy money conditions have propelled a huge run up in equity prices and corporate bonds and once the Fed’s tide of seemingly endless liquidity pulls back, no one knows quite how markets will react. Or as Warren Buffett memorably quipped: “Only when the tide goes out, do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
Based on the latest tidings from the central bank this week, investors can continue swimming for some time.
Unless job creation accelerates significantly during the coming months, we may well see just one upward shift in the FOMC’s federal funds rate this year.
Having previously predicted an overnight rate of 1.12 per cent by the end of December, the committee finally bowed to the long standing message from the bond market and now expects a year end level of 0.625 per cent.
That is quite a climbdown and while policy makers also cut their forecasts for rates at the end of 2016 and 2017, these new, lower predictions still remain well above what the interest rate futures and bond yields currently imply.
…
The limited tightening cycle forecast by the bond market looms as backfiring badly given lofty valuations across equities and low quality bonds. Extending the era of low yields will also encourage further debt issuance from companies looking to fund their dividend payouts and share buybacks, hardly the kind of long term investment that truly benefits the economy.
“Fed policy today is penalising savers and holders of cash, to instead benefit borrowers, but that has resulted in some questionable capital allocation decision making and financial asset price distortions that could in time risk the Fed’s broader goals through the instability they can produce,’’ says Rick Rieder at BlackRock.
ft dot com > GlobalEconomy >
US Economy
March 22, 2015 2:34 pm
Stronger dollar weighs on US investment sentiment
Shawn Donnan in Washington
Vioearth is a small Scottish company with big ambitions to bring its “Viosmart” energy efficient power hubs into offices around America.
But as Duncan McNeill-McCallum, Vioearth’s chief executive, has been contemplating the $500,000 investment needed to launch his US business recently he has been coming up against a new challenge: a strengthening US dollar.
“It is affecting all of our financial models,” he says.
From the Federal Reserve to rust belt manufacturers and heartland farmers, the dollar’s surge over the past six months has everyone in the US with an international angle to their business contemplating the consequences.
Much of the focus has been on the impact on exporters and trade or American corporates repatriating overseas profits. But there is another way the strong dollar is casting its shadow over the US recovery: foreign direct investment, something the Obama administration has made a priority of attracting in recent years.
Mr McNeill-McCallum is one of 1,300 investors landing in Washington for this week’s Select USA summit where they will be courted by everyone from President Obama and Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google, down to state officials.
Launched in 2011, after a panel led by Jeff Immelt, chief executive officer of GE, found the federal government’s existing efforts to lure FDI lacking, Select USA remains a relative newcomer to the world of investment promotion.
That is in large part because the job has traditionally been left up to state and local governments.
“We’ve not been nearly as good as we should have been at promoting the US as a destination for investment,” says Stefan Selig, a former banker who oversees the effort as US undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade.
…
Sucker punch? You did not see that coming?
Yes, I saw it coming. But judging from the large drop in the dollar on Friday, foreign currency traders did not.
A 1 to 2% move hardly suggests a lot of people were surprised. The dollar has moved up 25% in eight months.
It was a one-day surprise. But I imagine most expect a near-term reversal back to trend (as do I).
The Fed
Fed statement doesn’t rule out lengthy stay at zero, Evans says
Published: Mar 20, 2015 4:54 p.m. ET
By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
Bloomberg
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, sees no lift-off until 2016
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Charles Evans, a leading dove on the Federal Reserve, said Friday that he was able to support the latest policy statement because it did not rule out the U.S. central bank keep rates at zero for a lengthy period.
“I believe we would be well served by being cautious and be in no hurry to raise interest rates,” Evans told reporters after an event at the Brookings Institution.
Evans said the statement was “serviceable” and was easily consistent with the Fed not raising rates ”for quite some time” or “with raising rates in June if conditions warrant.”
Evans said the key for a move is whether inflation picking up.
On Wednesday, the Fed dropped the word “patient” from its statement, and signaled that a rate hike will be on the table as soon as June. In a separate appearance, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said a rate hike would be in play at the June, July and September meetings.
Several analysts thought that Evans would dissent from Wednesday’s statement.
He told reporters that he still thinks that a rate hike in 2016 is more likely than an earlier move based on the economic conditions as he sees them.
The Chicago Fed president dismissed suggestions that the Fed might want to raise interest rates above zero to deflate any potential asset bubbles. He said that macro-prudential and regulatory tools were the best way to combat financial market excesses.
He said he was not worried about volatile financial markets once the Fed actually does raise interest rates.
In a paper released Thursday, Evans argued that the biggest risk for the Fed was a premature rate hike damaging the economy and forcing the Fed to retreat and lower rates.
…
Are you more worried about a possible Grexit, or that China’s GDP growth may fall short of 7 pct this year?
The irony is that China’s GDP can indeed increase by 7.000% while their economy collapses, factories close, construction stalls, defaults cascade, prices collapse and millions become jobless. It’s a miracle.
If you want a real answer:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/cdf/2015-03/22/content_19875238.htm
Why should I expect to find the “real answer” in a Chinese communist propaganda outlet?
China Daily is based in the U.S. and is considered very credible look it up on Wikipedia, perhaps you are confusing it with the People’s Daily.
China Daily is a publication of the Chinese Communist Party. In English.
ALBQDan is also a Chinese Communist Party propaganda outlet.
Excerpt from link:
After an economic slowdown in 2014, there are encouraging signs that the long awaited rebalancing of the Chinese economy is underway.
Data points to an accelerated shift away from an investment-led, credit-driven economy towards a consumption-driven, service-fueled economy.
Consumption contributed 51.2 percent of GDP growth in 2014, up from 48.2 percent a year earlier, and slightly higher than the 48.6 percent contribution from capital formation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Consumption contributed more to GDP growth than investment for the third year.
Value added generated from the tertiary, or service, industry took up 48.2 percent of GDP, up from 46.9 percent a year ago. The secondary industry’s portion fell from 43.9 to 42.6 percent.
Steady growth in China’s service industry helped counter weakening manufacturing activity in 2014, constituting what President Xi Jinping called the “new normal”. The country’s average official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 50.7 last year, while the average service PMI reached 54.4.
“We expect adjustment in the property sector and overcapacity in several industries will continue to weigh on manufacturing in 2015. But the service sector will likely continue its stable expansion. Thus, we expect continued, steady economic restructuring,” said Zhu Haibin, China chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Economists believe an advancing service sector is the key reason why China’s newly created jobs will still surpass 13 million even though GDP growth recorded the slowest expansion since 1990.
An expert with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said 1 percentage point of GDP growth used to create less than 1 million new jobs, now it creates 1.7 million.
Expanding the service sector means increasing construction, with another 70 million excess empty houses already in the pipeline. Increasing construction means increasing debt, already at 300% of GDP.
Remember that all the new debt is being consumed rolling over the bad debt. Debt saturation, or thereabouts.
Vanity is expensive.
Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli says “We have paid a price and it’s unsustainable.”
“Remember that all the new debt is being consumed rolling over the bad debt.”
The financial miracle continues to roll forward! And it will never never never end because it … it just can’t.
It can’t be allowed to end because … because … because ..
(hang on, I’ll get back to you)
Kissinger is still at it:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-03/22/content_19876021.htm
The financial miracle continues to roll forward! And it will never never never end because it … it just can’t.
It can’t go on forever but as the U.S. GB and Japan show it can go on for a long time. China is just in the first few innings while the three countries named above are entering the 9th inning.
So will China give Microsoft a second chance to produce software for smart phones:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/tech/2015-03/19/content_19851690.htm
If you are admitting that China is now in an extend and pretend endgame, remember that they are starting the glide path a lot closer to the ground.
“China is just in the first few innings while the three countries named above are entering the 9th inning.”
China’s ball game is proceeding much faster towards the final out, while the other countries you mentioned seem destined to go into extra innings.
There are two main factors in successful societies. One is IQ and China’s IQ is higher than the U.S. primarily because the people having babies in this country and the people immigrating to this country as a whole have a lower IQ than the previous generation. The second factor is economic freedom, there China has less than the U.S. but we are moving in the wrong direction and they are moving in the correct direction. Given that, there is no reason why the U.S. should have three times the per capita income as China. It will move up while we move down in relative income. This is the primary reason why China is facing a future of much higher GDP growth than the U.S. Now, as far as the economic model it is more Keynesian than Austrian so like the rest of the world, they are building an economy that in the future will have problems but they are decades behind the U.S. and the EU and they still have time to defuse the time bomb.
“…the people immigrating to this country…”
Can’t speak to your ‘hood, but our new neighbors are Chinese.
Maybe some future generation will fulfill your dream for China. This one’s Fang Nu.
So much for their IQ.
Can’t speak to your ‘hood, but our new neighbors are Chinese.
Last year I heard Mandarin spoken in an aisle of a hardware store in Ohio Amish country.
Kissinger is still at it:
As long as there’s money to steal, or some free spirit who isn’t straining under the yolk of debt then Kissinger has reason to climb out of bed in the morning.
There are two main factors in successful societies.
It’s a lot more complicated than “two main factors”. It’s not because of “good genes”. And economic freedom does not exist simply because people choose it because they are “smart”. It is a bi-product of many factors.
Guns, Germs, and Steel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns,_Germs,_and_Steel
The book attempts to explain why Eurasian civilizations (including North Africa) have survived and conquered others, while arguing against the idea that Eurasian hegemony is due to any form of Eurasian intellectual, moral or inherent genetic superiority. Diamond argues that the gaps in power and technology between human societies originate in environmental differences, which are amplified by various positive feedback loops. When cultural or genetic differences have favored Eurasians (for example, written language or the development among Eurasians of resistance to endemic diseases), he asserts that these advantages occurred because of the influence of geography on societies and cultures, and were not inherent in the Eurasian genomes.
The Chinese invented the decimal math we use today. The symbols for our numbers are still a sloppy version of theirs. Yet, now things don’t add up so well for them.
The Chinese invented the decimal math we use today.
I was under the impression that it was the Arabs who invented the decimal system.
I suppose it doesn’t matter much, invention was often the product of travel. I met a math professor in Japan 20 years ago who said the Chinese switched from base 8 math to base 10 several thousand years ago, which would predate the Arab mathematical golden age. That the math proceeded from the middle east to Europe is quite believable.
He said the base 8 math was still used by carpenters only. That made sense to me because you can divide by two, and again and again without having a fraction. I would expect that is all gone now.
The conversation started with my excitement over realizing my own symbols for the digits were really the same as theirs.
Much like our stock market’s inexorable rise, thanks to Fed provision of trillions in free gambling money to its favored oligarchs, while the productive econonomy continues to deteriorate.
Much like our stock market’s inexorable rise, thanks to Fed provision of trillions in free gambling money to its favored oligarchs, while the productive econonomy continues to deteriorate.
True but consumption is 70% of our economy compared to 51.2 per cent of their economy so they have a long way to go.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/video/busting-the-business-myths-surrounding-china/vi-BBiux0C
Khamenei calls ‘Death to America what if we said the reverse… death to khamenei??? fair is fair!
http://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-calls-death-to-america-as-kerry-hails-progress-on-nuke-deal/
99% of Americans have no idea of who Khamenei is.
well close probably only the drudge readers do…..or those willing to use that scary website google search and find out for themselves.
On Borrowed Time
China’s debt situation is genuinely scary—and getting worse
Written by Gwynn Guilford@sinoceros
Obsession
China’s Transition
March 18, 2015
China’s leaders face a challenge: they must allow economic growth to slow steadily enough that they don’t trigger a financial shock. Yet the best bet for achieving this feat—i.e. bank lending—also happens to be their biggest threat. At 125% of GDP, China’s corporate debt is already perilously huge.
Here’s another sign of just how unmanageable that debt has become: China’s debt service ratio (the share of GDP used to pay down debt) is literally in the red zone, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements released today.
…
What happens when prospective debt payments are impossibly high? (Historical reference: Germany under WWI war reparations…)
If You Must Know
Why Did World War I Just End?
By Claire Suddath
Monday, Oct. 04, 2010
US ARMY SIGNAL CORPS / TIME-LIFE Pictures
Front row, from left: Italian premier Vittorio Orlando, British PM David Lloyd George, French premier Georges Clemenceau and U.S. President Woodrow Wilson meet at Wilson’s Paris home before the signing of the Versailles Treaty
World War I ended over the weekend. Germany made its final reparations-related payment for the Great War on Oct. 3, nearly 92 years after the country’s defeat by the Allies. That’s not to say that Germany has been paying its dues consistently over the decades; the country defaulted on its loans many times and the current payouts have only been happening since the 1990s. What took Germany so long to pay for the war? Didn’t World War I end long ago? Does this mean we’re all survivors of the Great War?
…
“Germany made its final reparations-related payment for the Great War on Oct. 3, nearly 92 years after the country’s defeat by the Allies. That’s not to say that Germany has been paying its dues consistently over the decades; the country defaulted on its loans many times”
Too bad the Germans won’t show the Greeks the same leniency they themselves were shown. Twice.
I guess spending money on retiring early is less forgivable than spending it on waging war.
ft dot com > World > Europe >
Brussels
Last updated: March 22, 2015 11:29 pm
Greece’s leader warns Merkel of ‘impossible’ debt payments
Peter Spiegel in Brussels
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras addresses on March 18, 2015 the parliament in Athens. Greece was responding sharply to apparent pressure from the EU not to pass a so-called “humanitarian crisis” law that would provide free electricity and food stamps for the poorest households.
AFP PHOTO / ARIS MESSINIS©AFP
Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has warned Angela Merkel that it will be “impossible” for Athens to service debt obligations due in the coming weeks if the EU fails to distribute any short-term financial assistance to the country.
The warning, contained in a letter sent by Mr Tsipras to the German chancellor and obtained by the Financial Times, comes as concerns mount that Athens will struggle to make pension and wage payments at the end of this month and could run out of cash before the end of April.
The letter, dated March 15, came just before Ms Merkel agreed to meet Mr Tsipras on the sidelines of an EU summit last Thursday and invited him for a one-on-one session in Berlin, scheduled for Monday evening.
In the letter, Mr Tsipras warns that his government will be forced to choose between paying off loans, owed primarily to the International Monetary Fund, or continue social spending. He blames European Central Bank limits on Greece’s ability to issue short-term debt as well as eurozone bailout authorities’ refusal to disburse any aid before Athens adopts a new round of economic reforms.
“Given that Greece has no access to money markets, and also in view of the ‘spikes’ in our debt repayment obligations during the spring and summer . . . it ought to be clear that the ECB’s special restrictions when combined with disbursement delays would make it impossible for any government to service its debt,” Mr Tsipras wrote.
He said servicing the debts would lead to a “sharp deterioration in the already depressed Greek social economy — a prospect that I will not countenance”.
…
World’s fifth largest food producer (California) is almost out of water. Will this mean fewer California equity locusts infesting other states?
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-fifth-largest-food-supplier-is-almost-out-of-water-2015-3
I think this winter is worst than last year. Ski resorts cant even stay open. We haven’t got a major snowstorm this year at lower elevations. It is simply unreal.
Will this mean fewer California equity locusts infesting other states?
Whatever you do, don’t move here! Everyone here is a pot head and Peyton can’t throw straight, probably because he’s a pot head too!
The pot business must be great for owners of pizza parlors, taco stands, and donut shops.
Makes you wonder how Colorado is the thinnest state in the country.
World’s fifth largest food producer (California) is almost out of water ??
Ag uses 80% of our water….
Riding my bike in a hilly part of OC yesterday I noticed how spring-like and green it was. The hill that is yellow in summer is green.
I expect the combination of severe fire danger - worse than 2014 and landscape damage due to rules about not watering.
The dictatorship of water rationing is going to come back, like the 1970s.
If CA becomes unlivable because of the lack of water, then where will the equity locusts get their equity?
I don’t know but I think a lot of RE cheerleaders are whistling a lot more now in the dark.
Donno, but it will be great for renters who aren’t tethered to mortgages on über-dry properties to be able to pull up the tent stakes and relocate to wetter climes.
PB, yeah that’s my thinking. None of my relatives in California own real estate. They are not worried. I’m not worried.
Got popcorn?
I’m a little worried.
In my little Las Vegas neighborhood, more houses have sprouted “For Sale” signs. A place listed at $250K a few days ago. A place on the next street finally sold, they wanted the same. The house next door listed last week; the little old lady left for assisted living yesterday. She wants $300K (still in the agent’s pocket, so not checkable unless I call.) These prices are about a 40-50% rise in three years. A rental across the street, equivalent to ours, was on craigslist a few days ago for $1,600 a month and rented immediately. Estimates are turning back up.
I am tired of moving, LLs, property managers and inspections and in the past few months started to think maybe we should settle for here. Now I’m getting priced out of a place I looked down on! Pride goeth before a fall. My brother, the new condo owner, says I’m an idiot for holding out; always lovely to talk to him.
On the bright side, if the new occupants are trouble, we will be able to leave. Also, listening to the local RE radio show yesterday, the agents/brokers said business is lousy, they don’t expect it to get better this year and that prices are going to go down.
Nothing notable has changed. If you’re on the 15 or 30 year hook for a house you made the mistake of buying in the last 15 years, you’ve got one serious problem.
“…you’ve got one serious problem.”
What’s the big deal? If prices go up, you make money. If prices drop, you walk away and buy again in a couple of years, after your credit is ‘repaired.’
Where is the downside?
The only option is to walk away.
What’s the big deal?
HA is a clown. He just spouts tripe and then covers up his B.S. with invectives.
Watch.
You’re angry tonite Lola but there is no need to throw a heel.
A 30-year mortgage coinciding with a 30-year drought would be ugly.
Hoo boy! For sure.
Or even a 30 year mortgage begun in 2005. Twenty more years of paying interest on a house you liked because of the lush green surrounding vegetation and cool temperatures, only to become a barren hillside with stucco and dirt hills as the view.
“A 30-year mortgage coinciding with a 30-year drought would be ugly.”
a 30-year droughtgage
One obvious big damage area would be Southern California from Ventura county to San Diego County and eastward into San Bernardino County and Riverside County.
13 million people? 15?
The ones to worry of course are the business owners and the home moaners.
The renters will move on.
I hear the northern New England states have abundant water. The Free State Project - New Hampshire, anyone?
If you like your crony capitalism, you can keep your crony capitalism.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-21/clinton-foundation’s-deep-financial-ties-ukrainian-oligarch-who-pushed-closer-ties-e
Between 2009 and 2013, including when Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state, the Clinton Foundation received at least $8.6 million from the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, according to that foundation, which is based in Kiev, Ukraine. It was created by Mr. Pinchuk, whose fortune stems from a pipe-making company. He served two terms as an elected member of the Ukrainian Parliament and is a proponent of closer ties between Ukraine and the European Union.
In 2008, Mr. Pinchuk made a five-year, $29 million commitment to the Clinton Global Initiative, a wing of the foundation that coordinates charitable projects and funding for them but doesn’t handle the money. The pledge was to fund a program to train future Ukrainian leaders and professionals “to modernize Ukraine,” according to the Clinton Foundation. Several alumni are current members of the Ukrainian Parliament. Actual donations so far amount to only $1.8 million, a Pinchuk foundation spokesman said, citing the impact of the 2008 financial crisis.
The Pinchuk foundation said its donations were intended to help to make Ukraine “a successful, free, modern country based on European values.” It said that if Mr. Pinchuk was lobbying the State Department about Ukraine, “this cannot be seen as anything but a good thing.”
We had Billy Joel concert in town Friday night. And here is an original line from him where “Realtors are liars”.
Piano Man - what in the world is a “real estate novelist”?
I’ve always wondered about that line.
It actually references a bar regular, Paul, who was a real estate agent but always told patrons he was working on a novel.
Many real estate agents are very good about telling tall tales.
anything for a commission check!
Billy Joel - Movin’ Out Lyrics - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8buJ2-oD02E - 418k -
Who needs a house out in Hackensack?
Is that all you get for your money?
Brender and Eddie
Scenes From An Italian Restaurant-Billy Joel (lyrics) - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUz48xw_OiM - 462k -
They started to fight when the
Money got tight
And they just didn’t count on
The tears.
They lived for a while in a
Very nice style
But it’s always the same in the end
They got a divorce as a matter
Of course
And they parted the closest
Of friends
“Piano Man” is my favorite Billy Joel tune (I also like “We didn’t start the fire”).
That line “real estate novelist” always gets me laughing.
Prince Charles to Americans: Capitalism Has “Enormous Shortcomings”
by Gateway Pundit | Patch Adams | March 22, 2015
Prince Charles ended his tour of the United States in Louisville, Kentucky yesterday where, the Independant reports, that during a speech at the Cathedral of the Assumption Prince Charles took a shot at capitalism by stating that it had “enormous shortcomings”:
“Prince Charles spoke of an “economic system that seems to have enormous shortcomings” at one of the final events of his four day royal tour of the United States.
“The future King gave a speech yesterday tackling the environmental and economic issues faces the world at the Cathedral of the Assumption in Louisville, Kentucky.
“…The Prince of Wales told the invited audience: “We are standing at a moment of substantial transition where we face the dual challenges of a world view and an economic system that seem to have enormous shortcomings, together with an environmental crisis – including that of climate change – which threatens to engulf us all.”
As is the case with Al Gore, Prince Charles is just another example of a wealthy elitist preaching to the common man that their pursuit of happiness, and efforts to improve their quality of life, are shameful and not as important as the fictional fight against Global Warming.
Because in the end, Prince Charles and Al Gore have their wealth and comfort.
Why should you have yours?
No grownup country should have a king or a queen. Time to stop these ” Enormous Shortcomings”.
“No grownup country should have a king or a queen. Time to stop these ” Enormous Shortcomings”.
Would they still get an allowance to go to Orgy Island?
Alleged ’sex slave’ Virginia Roberts says she didn’t have sex with former President Bill Clinton, but in explosive court filing, details 11-person orgy with Prince Andrew and others
BY Dareh Gregorian
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Wednesday, January 21, 2015, 10:00 PM
She did not have sexual relations with that man, President Clinton — but billionaire Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged “sex slave” is now swearing under oath and in excruciating detail about underaged sexual trysts with Prince Andrew and others.
In papers filed Wednesday in Florida federal court, “Jane Doe No. 3,” Virginia Roberts, detailed an 11-person orgy in 2001 with the British prince, who’s been dubbed “Randy Andy.”
Or, as Roberts called him, just “Andy.”
Roberts, now 31, also doubled down on her claims that she had sex with renowned lawyer Alan Dershowitz, swearing in court papers that she had sex with him six times - and that he once stood casually chatting with Epstein as she was performing oral sex on the freaky financier.
Meanwhile, Epstein’s girlfriend, socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, had “forceful” sex with underaged girls — including Roberts — almost daily, the explosive filing says.
One person Roberts said she didn’t have sex with while working for Epstein between 1999 and 2002 was his then-pal, Bill Clinton.
“I have seen reports saying or implying that I had sex with former President Bill Clinton on Little St James Island,” an island Epstein owns in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
“Clinton was present on the island at a time when I was also present on the island, but I have never had sexual relations with Clinton, nor have I ever claimed to have had such relations. I have never seen him have sexual relations with anyone,” Roberts wrote.
Roberts filed the affidavit after weeks of being called a liar by Buckingham Palace, Dershowitz, and Maxwell.
In the filing, she stands her ground - and demands they and other unnamed movers and shakers who preyed on her be prosecuted.
“I am telling the truth and will not let these attacks prevent me from exposing the truth of how I was trafficked for sex to many powerful people. These powerful people seem to think that they don’t have to follow the same rules as everyone else. That is wrong,” she said.
Dershowitz told the Daily News that Roberts is the one who should be prosecuted - for perjury.
http://www.nydailynews.com/…/alleged-sex-slave-didn-sex-bill-clinton-article-1.2087614 -
“Roberts, now 31, also doubled down on her claims that she had sex with renowned lawyer Alan Dershowitz, swearing in court papers that she had sex with him six times - and that he once stood casually chatting with Epstein as she was performing oral sex on the freaky financier.”
If Alan Dershowitz were talking to me, or even just in the same room, I would immediately lose my erection.
We are standing at a moment of substantial transition where we face the dual challenges of a world view and an economic system that seem to have enormous shortcomings
IMO the above is totally true. Who said it doesn’t make it less so.
Our economic system has enormous shortcomings no matter who says it.
Jobs in Obama’s economy and it relates to housing:
http://www.sltrib.com/news/2303389-155/utahs-economy-has-improved-but-the
About a year ago I considered buying a home in Palm Beach County Florida (population around 1 million) and I took a look at the local foreclosures. There were about 350 per week. Well, I got busy with other things and then the rate dropped to 250 per week and I thought I missed the boat. Some predatory real estate agents moved into the neighborhood I live in and flipped a couple of homes up to corporations and the tax appraisal prices went from the $80’s to the $110’s
Then I watched the LLC’s that did the flipping and they are all over the area doing the same kind of stuff. But they are all positioned to walk away.
One of the homes they flipped is next to me and was vacant for the first 4 months. They did do some decent renovations. Now a young couple with a boarder have lived there for six months. The property is not well maintained so the HOA will eventually have to do something about them.
Then I took another look at the local foreclosures and there are 313 scheduled for this week. WTF? It is hard to tell what is real and what is being manipulated. The banks are apparently floating alot of this real estate. What are they doing? Waiting for Chinese buyers? Are the Chinese buyers coming?
When I look around, all I get is good news that sounds like propaganda. It just does not match what I am seeing. I talk to people and they say the same. One person told me the homeless are occupying some of the empty housing in her area.
I need to buy something this year, but I am really skeptical that this market is going to do anything good.
Can anyone explain to me what is going on here????
I considered buying a home in Palm Beach County Florida … and I thought I missed the boat.
Given the increasing rate of ice loss in Antarctica, Greenland, glaciers, etc. and sea level rise, Florida will be increasingly underwater and instead of missing the boat you’ll want to make sure you own a boat.
Melting Antarctica ice?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/03/climate-fail-antarctic-sea-ice-did-the-exact-opposite-of-what-models-predicted/
As freshwater melts from the Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers, it dilutes the salinity of the ocean, raising the freezing point of the coastal waters. The freshwater ice mass of both Antarctica and Greenland are shrinking:
http://www.ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/velicogna/files/slide2.jpg
Apparently you do not realize that what you linked to shows that Greenland and Antarctica have been gaining ice mass at an increasing rate since 2007.
I read the chart to show zero loss in 2007 as a baseline. The negative numbers, in gigatons of ice, are after 2007 while the positive numbers are prior to 2007, resulting in a more-or-less continuous loss of ice from 2002 to 2012.
A steady gain is not a continuous loss. Of course, I could be wrong.
I gotta tell ya Bring Back and Oddie can turn…
“DHS released another 30,000 criminal aliens onto streets”
into…
“disgraced Rep. Aaron Schock’s disastrous narcissistic fling as congressman”
and Palm Beach County foreclosures into…
“ice loss in Antarctica, Greenland, glaciers, etc.”
Without missing a beat.
Obama “believes” in CAGW but he buys beachfront property, now that makes a lot of sense:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/21/while-warning-us-of-rising-oceans-in-sotu-did-obama-just-buy-a-beachfront-mansion/
China has joined the international scientist conspiracy.
Climate change: China official warns of ‘huge impact’
Climate change could have a “huge impact” on China, reducing crop yields and harming the environment, the country’s top weather scientist has warned, in a rare official admission.
Zheng Guogang told Xinhua news agency that climate change could be a “serious threat” to big infrastructure projects.
He said temperature rises in China were already higher than global averages.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-32006972
China has joined the international scientist conspiracy
Since it is a major producer of both solar and wind power and it had just about exhausted its fossil resources why wouldn’t it join it?
Since (China) is a major producer of both solar and wind power and it had just about exhausted its fossil resources why wouldn’t (China) join (the international scientist conspiracy)?
Why? Because if international measures are taken to reduce pollutants it will greatly affect China’s massive industrial sector.
Hint:
A lawyer should never ask a question that he doesn’t know the answer to.
Maybe them having massive capacity to manufacture PV.
What ever the Chinese say, the simple explanation is that they want your money.
Maybe them having massive capacity to manufacture PV.
What ever the Chinese say, the simple explanation is that they want your money.
You could be right looking at it as through the lens of an American - profits now at any cost. But the Chinese are known for ultra long-term strategic thinking in regard to goals, possibilities and outcomes. They think in decades and centuries. The Chinese would be a culture one could expect to put long-term reality ahead of short-term profits.
The most probable reason China is saying there is man-made climate change is because of their belief that it is real and they are concerned.
And China’s ability to manufacture PV would not be a financial reason for China to tout climate-change, because the negative effects on the rest of their industries would greatly outweigh any gain the PV industry would get due to polices causing the gain of the PV industry imo.
“Since it is a major producer of both solar and wind power and it had just about exhausted its fossil resources why wouldn’t it join it?”
But the Russians have joined it, too. And they got nothing but oil.
“Obama “believes” in CAGW but he buys beachfront property, now that makes a lot of sense:”
He says he didn’t buy it, his buddy in charge of finding a suitable place for the Obama Library (maybe that’s where they will keep all the lost emails and crashed hard drives) did.
None the less, like Al Gores big @ss carbon footprint recently purchased oceanfront mansion in Cali that evidently will soon be great for scuba diving in the master suite. They did buy it.
the Obama Library (maybe that’s where they will keep all the lost emails and crashed hard drives)
Now that’s funny!
“It is hard to tell what is real and what is being manipulated. The banks are apparently floating alot of this real estate.”
IMHO none of it is real and it is all being manipulated.
“I need to buy something this year,”
I can’t tell you what to do but I can tell you what I have lived through.
I have lived in Palm Beach County since 1983. I rented for 1 year and bought a small place in 1984. By 2003 - 2004 I needed a bigger place due to having kids. Started looking at 3-4 bed houses and they were going up every week so much and so fast that by mid 2004 I started to realize there was a problem.
By late 04 into 05 people who made $40k - $60k a year were buying houses in Palm Beach Gardens for $400k - $500k that sold for $150k or less from 1988 - 2000.
I sold my small place for about 4 x what it was worth and rented 2 different houses from 2 different Deadbeats who both collected $1,700 a month rent but never paid the mortgage in Jupiter and Tequesta from late 2005 - mid 2012.
By 2009 prices started to crash and suddenly stopped. From 2009 - 2012 I put low-ball bids in on several houses and came up empty each time.
In may of 2012 I put in a bid $1000 over asking on a Home-Path house that I was told not to bid on by a Realtor because she already had a solid buyer and got the house. I guess she didn’t expect a higher bid than asking and she was pissed because she had to split the commission with the Realtor who put the bid in for me.
The house which was built in 2005 like the empty one next to it had been foreclosed and empty for a couple of years. I had called the bank listed on the posted foreclosure notice a couple of times and they told me they couldn’t talk to me because it was still owned by the person they had evicted. I could not get a hold of them.
This house had most of what I wanted. Decent neighborhood, CBS construction, hip roof, no major repairs needed and no HOA.
Out of the 18 houses on this street in Jupiter the 5 or 6 foreclosures have all been sold now.
I paid $191K in June of 2012 for a house that sold brand new @ $200k in 05 and was purchased by the third owner before me for $379K in 2007. The same house next door that was empty from at least 2010 just sold for $280k.
In the last year they have built about 12 houses on the street behind me that had been shelved in 2006 with the underground site work complete. Pretty much the same house with some upgrades like a metal roof instead of asphalt shingles. Sold em all from about $360k - $390k.
This is all from decent to nice hoods in Palm Beach Gardens/Jupiter/Tequesta.
IMHO it looks like late 2004 again and although I know rents are too high if the house I am in hits $379K again I will be looking for another place to rent.
Take this for what it is or you can just listen to the glacier melting climate Loon and head for the high ground. But in either event …
Best of luck to you.
“I paid $191K in June of 2012 for a house that sold brand new @ $200k in 05 and was purchased by the third owner before me for $379K in 2007. The same house next door that was empty from at least 2010 just sold for $280k.”
HBB win — congrats!
Video evidence of Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s climate change gag order in effect. Watch as state senator humorously tries to get a state manager to utter the forbidden words:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo3K7rbkWZQ
Yet another tremor in the financial system, as 15,000 Spanish depositors got their accounts seized.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/21/don-quijones-rich-mans-bank-run-spain-andorra-bail-in-seizure-of-deposits/
It’s a feature not a bug.
“Fears quickly escalated that the bank would be unable to pay the sort of fine that the US treasury might impose”
Interesting that the US Treasury can fine overseas banks and even put them out of business. If we can do that, no wonder we can get away with printing money to finance our deficits.
Have your emerging markets investments turned toxic?
Amid Crisis, Emerging Markets Turn Toxic
New York Times Mar 12, 2015, 08.54AM IST
By Landon Thomas Jr
In Russia, it’s assassinations and war. In Brazil, a corruption scandal may derail the economy. And in Turkey, the president is attacking the country’s senior central banker.
Emerging markets, not long ago seen as a necessary ingredient for the common portfolio, have lately taken on a more toxic quality as messy politics and staggering economies are prompting some investors to reassess their investment rationale.
Compounding these concerns has been the dollar’s upward march and the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will soon increase interest rates as the United States economy outpaces the rest of the world’s.
Emerging-market currencies, an accurate barometer of investor mood swings, are now suffering the consequences. The Turkish lira and the Brazilian real have touched multiyear lows against the dollar while the Russian ruble remains volatile after its 65 per cent plunge.
Even the currencies of economies seen to be in better shape, like the Mexican peso, which is trading at record lows against the dollar, and the Indian rupee are under pressure.
“You are seeing all the bad things about emerging markets that originally made them sub-investment grade,” said Daniel Tenengauzer, an emerging-market specialist at the Royal Bank of Canada. “The whole thesis that emerging markets are emerging is being questioned right now.”
…
Buy low, sell high.
The dollar is high versus foreign currencies right now.
You’re getting a lot of bang for the ($US) buck right now.
Is the dollar strong enough to justify the toxicity risk of EM investments?
Energy
Why Shale Producers Still ‘Pump and Pray’
15 Mar 18, 2015 3:24 PM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky
As the price of oil continues to fall, the U.S. shale oil industry is showing remarkable resilience. Output is at a 30-year high and stockpiles are the largest since tracking started in 2004. Speculators who push down the price of crude see this as evidence of a glut, but it could actually signal desperation on the part of over-leveraged producers.
It seems counterintuitive: Why would shale operators want to oversupply the market and make their product even cheaper? Two analytical papers out this month suggest it’s because otherwise they couldn’t service their debts.
The first of these reports comes from derivatives expert Satyajit Das, who points out that energy companies have been raising enormous amounts of capital through new bond issues and loans — $550 billion from 2010 to 2014. Last year, more than 40 percent of new non-investment grade syndicated loans were to the oil and gas sector. A big part of the industry, Das says, is borrowing at levels more than three times operating profits, a risky amount of leverage:
Today, the Bank of International Settlements (the central banks’ central bank) weighed in with a similar analysis, backed up by more alarming statistics on oil debt. The sector as a whole, Dietrich Domanski and his collaborators write, increased its debt burden to $2.5 trillion in 2014 from $1 trillion in 2006. American oil companies account for about 40 percent of that outstanding debt, and much of it has been issued by relatively small shale producers, whose capital expenditure far outstripped their cash flow. (Small U.S. producers’ capex to cash flow ratio is the yellow line; the red one denotes producers in emerging markets and the blue one, U.S. companies with assets of $25 billion or more.)
…
If higher interest rates won’t do in American imperialism, the obesity epidemic among young people will.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/retired-military-leaders-fret-kids-will-be-too-fat-fight-n95956
the obesity epidemic among young people will
Military recruiters also won’t take yoof on drugs for ADHD, or with other mental disorders, or who have committed certain legal infractions. Dunno about those who test illegal drug positive.
the obesity epidemic
This simple device inserted in an out-patient procedure could be a game-changer. It would probably cost 5K in the USA and a grand to have done in Mexico.
“When this hits the market, there’s not going to be just 10,000 to 15,000 people having it,” …“There’s going to be hundreds of thousands. Millions per year.”
The Invention That Could End Obesity
http://www.buzzfeed.com/joeloliphint/the-invention-that-could-end-obesity#.nnMJJVAnV
A Michigan surgeon invented an apparatus that he believes tricks the brain into thinking the stomach is full. His Full Sense Device could be a lifesaver for millions of obese Americans and raises questions about how hunger — our most basic human impulse — even works.
In one related article it mentioned that some enlistees undergo bodyfat removal procedures to be able to get in. The problem is that the bone structure is still weak due to lack of exercise even though the body fat is gone. These techniques are not the answer. The enlistees need to be fit, strong, and have strong bones.
“The Invention That Could End Obesity”
Modern women love these jovial, impotent, jelly bellies since they’re always happy and never bug them for s-e-x. Bad boyz with survivor genetics are readily available when the reproductive alarm clock beckons.
IDK, it’s complicated. Who’d a thunk this could happen?
Woman experiences unexpected, rapid weight gain after fecal transplant procedure
I see links indicating that people are actually doing this at home.
rio we should pay for gastric bypass if you are say 100% overweight and end paying for breast reductions which 90% are unnecessary….fair trade off
My theory is that the U.S. government funds and arms shady characters in other nations (who eventually turn against Americans) precisely because there is no conscription and the young people are too fat to fight the bankers wars. The use of coalition forces is also a tool the U.S. government uses to make up for its own lack of fit enlistees.
The growing rate of injuries and suicides among enlistees is another constraint on imperialism. The cost of care for the permanent handicapped is a constraint.
No wonder drones are the preferred choice in the wars.
alltaken678
7 months ago
Nancy Pelosi takes the Ice Bucket Challenge!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQJ8WrKnLUs - 369k -
ICE Director defends release of criminal illegal immigrants into U.S.
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/ice-director-defends-release-criminal-015505361.html
Not sure how we become a better or safer nation with marxist revolutionaries in top federal law enforcement positions.
#Instacomms
#FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica
“Not sure how we become a better or safer nation with marxist revolutionaries in top federal law enforcement positions.”
I will save Oddfellow the time.
I haven’t heard you say anything about about disgraced Rep. Aaron Schock’s disastrous narcissistic fling as congressman.
The FBI has begun investigating Schock’s spending. Maybe his noble resignation won’t be enough to satisfy the haters.
I’m sure you’ll keep us informed.
Falling prices create jobs! More people buy stuff when it is cheaper. econ 101 my friends.
I’m looking for a job working for the 1% who got there money from the feds asset appreciation program. I have to labor for cash while they watch cnbc all day watching their stocks go up.everything I buy is going up in price so they can get free cash from their assets.
“Falling prices create jobs! More people buy stuff when it is cheaper. econ 101 my friends.”
That’s why I am skeptical about the globalist central bankers’ claim that deflation is universally bad. It seems more like something that is bad for debtors and those who loaned them the money, but good for savers and households with dollar-denominated wealth.
What am I missing?
Falling prices create jobs!
The oil patch begs to differ
“What am I missing?”
Nothing except for the number two positive outcome of falling prices—–> Massive job creation as prices fall freeing up hundreds of billions in discretionary income.
lower prices help consumers and workers while higher prices benefit speculators in the centrally planned casino.
Falling prices help the 99.9% while ever-inflating prices help the 0.1%.
Hence the central bankers pump out an interminable propaganda barrage about the dangers of deflation.
Summed up perfectly. Its a big club and u aint in it! Now go get a job mowing lawns for the 1%. You are not connected enough to not have to work.
I couldn’t possibly compete with the people who mow lawns in my hood. They are Mexicans without college educations who are much better at mowing lawns than I could ever hope to be.
Luckily I have a few STEM degrees to fall back on.
Definitely bad for governments, manufacturers with high fixed overheads, companies with tough unions (labour cost declines would be unevenly matched with deflation).
With the USD carrying such a premium my current concern is can the Fed actually get away with increasing the interest rate without sending the USD up into overdrive.
If they do not then all those printed dollars will continue to earn interest, albeit a small amount, but that interest is fixed against the banks who are using it to cover up their leverage shortfalls. The only way they can get off Fedollars is with higher interest rates to jazz up their retained earnings.
The most amazing part of all of this mess is how could such well educated and experienced persons make so many wrong decisions that accumulate on top of one another instead of fixing anything.
More cash-strapped Americans turn to tax refund advances
Mar 22, 7:51 AM (ET)
By HOPE YEN
WASHINGTON (AP) — Cash-strapped Americans anxious for tax refunds are increasingly turning to payment advances, prepaid cards or other costly services when getting tax preparation help, according to new federal data raising concerns among regulators about whether consumers are fully informed about the fees.
Regulators are looking to increase oversight of preparers amid the rise in “refund anticipation checks,” a type of cash advance especially popular among low-income families who receive the Earned Income Tax Credit, the government’s $65 billion cash benefit program. The advances are being marketed as a way to get fast refunds or defer payment of tax preparation costs.
“It’s the wild, wild West,” said Nina Olson, the IRS’ national taxpayer advocate, describing the current state of the industry. She called the level of risk for abuse in pricing and quality of service unprecedented.
The National Association of Tax Professionals supports certification of providers to ensure a minimum level of competency. But the Institute for Justice, which filed the lawsuit against IRS, says new licensing requirements and other oversight aren’t the answer.
“We should do more to increase competition, not drive independent tax preparers out of the market,” said Dan Alban, an attorney for the group.
The average tax-preparation fee for 2014 returns is $273, up 11 percent from two years ago, according to a survey by the National Society of Accountants. But there’s wide variation, with fees of $400 or more, according to the National Consumer Law Center.
Netran Washington, 40, a materials handler in Cleveland, says he’s been going to a neighborhood tax preparer for four years, eager for a fast refund. Washington readily agreed when asked if he preferred to pay for the tax preparation later.
Washington says he was later surprised by a $500 fee that included the cost of a cash advance.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150322/us–tax_refund_advances-42bd075d37.html
In some states payday loan stores outnumber fast food joints.
I’m sure those EIC recipients are just dying to go out and buy a $2000 TV with their “refund”.
The Next Move For The Fed: “Trial Balloning” QE4
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/22/2015
The new paradigm in the domestic economic mosaic is that the U.S. economy cannot presently withstand the headwinds of an overly starched and strong dollar. Greenback strength also has a negative offshore impact as it increases the costs of dollar based liabilities held by foreign companies/countries – which are substantial. The Fed is well aware of this dilemma and, of course, will respond accordingly as they are hostage to the financial markets.
Sometime after the initially soft Q1 GDP “print” expect a “trial balloon” of more debt monetization [QE4] issued by some FOMC constituent. Naturally this will weaken the dollar and immediately suspend/reverse the Fed’s dollar based concerns articulated earlier in this post. However, this will also serve to “piss” off both Kuroda [BoJ] and Draghi [ECB]…as their heavily depreciated and shorted currencies will, at least initially, sharply reverse course…and the continual game as to which global economic zone can depreciate their currency the fastest is “on”…again.
In the end, however, this is a truly pointless game. Eventually one of these infinitely diluted currencies will certainly collapse [most likely the yen] as investors finally, and correctly, perceive these actions as economically destructive. This will mightily shake global economic confidence but may, perversely, be the necessary flash point to end the serial money printing illusions of global central bankers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-22/next-move-fed-trial-balloning-qe4 - 136k -
was the free market to much of a risk to banker profits?
A centrally planned economy seems to guarantee more inflation doesnt it?
People around me of thinking there smart again since their stocks have went up with all the intervention.
Any threat of further printing by the Fed will finally crash the velocity of the USD. They don’t seem to get it - real GDP demand is needed.
It is up to the government to create that demand, and roads are probably the only spark plug left in the quiver.
“It is up to the government to create that demand”
They’ve been failing miserably at just that for 14 years now. It hit a wall in Q4 of 2013.
I think BillinLA mentioned something about whistling past the graveyard today…….
“…will finally crash the velocity of the USD.”
You were saying?
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2 Money Stock Velocity:
1997.Q3 2.208
2014.Q4 1.530
How far has it crashed over the past seven years?
(1.530/2.208 - 1)*100% = -30.7%.
What exactly was the “finally crash” comment supposed to mean?
Worth mentioning that this is the largest decline in M2 Money Stock Velocity from the highest level on record to the lowest level on record in the history of the time series back to 1959. (This is completely obvious at a glance to anyone who is not too lazy to click on the link I furnished above…)
And with interest rates at essentially zero, the Fed is out of bullets. I took enough economics courses in college to know that money velocity is a key metric of the health of an economy. A whole lot of not-good, regardless of the rosy jobs numbers of late.
Macroscope
William Pesek
PUBLISHED : Friday, 13 March, 2015, 8:00am
UPDATED : Friday, 13 March, 2015, 8:00am
Beijing has a bitcoin problem on its hands
Goldman Sachs says the yuan now accounts for 80 per cent of Bitcoin transactions.
Photo: Reuters
As if Zhou Xiaochuan didn’t have enough to worry about, the central bank governor now has a bitcoin problem on his hands.
In a new report, Goldman Sachs says the yuan is now used in 80 per cent of transactions into and out of the cyber currency, topping the US dollar, yen and euro. Given that the Communist Party’s highest priority is stability, and the rampant use of bitcoin represents nothing if not the opposite, it’s probably only a matter of time until Beijing tries to crack down.
It wouldn’t be the first time. In December 2013 – at a time when the yuan accounted for about 50 per cent of bitcoin transactions – Zhou clamped down hard on the nascent payment system, citing concerns that it was enabling money laundering and undermining capital controls.
It’s proving to be a nifty way to move money across borders beyond the watchful eye of the government
The People’s Bank of China barred financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions, concluding it wasn’t a currency with “real meaning”. A few months later, in March 2014, it went further, ordering banks and payment companies to close the trading accounts of more than 10 bitcoin exchanges.
But bitcoin traders continue to show up the People’s Bank of China. As Goldman Sachs points out, the trading volume on the mainland has risen markedly – even as bitcoins plunge in value (from about US$1,100 in late 2013 to around US$300) and lose cachet elsewhere. “Bitcoin,” writes Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider, “has momentum in China.”
What gives? Some mainlanders are surely buying bitcoin to engage in relatively innocent forms of financial speculation. But they are probably outnumbered by the people who are using it to move yuan overseas, while circumventing Beijing’s currency controls. That’s partly because the mainland’s broader economic slowdown provides fewer lucrative investment opportunities. But it’s also because of Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping’s ongoing crackdown on corruption, which has made it harder to launder ill-gotten funds. (Hong Kong money changers used to be the laundering method of choice, but are no longer readily available.)
Bitcoin’s value gyrates too wildly to be a viable transactional unit, but it’s proving to be a nifty way to move money across borders beyond the watchful eye of the government.
Bitcoin’s surging popularity on the mainland – despite the attempts to crack down against it – underscores how fragile the world’s second-biggest economy is at present. Data released on Wednesday showed industrial output since the beginning of the year was at its slowest pace since 2009, rising just 6.8 per cent in January and February. Deflation also seems to be on the horizon.
As growth slows, the risk of a hard landing for the mainland economy increases.
Officially, Beijing is on the hook for about US$3 trillion of regional debt. (The Japanese investment bank Mizuho Securities says US$4 trillion is closer to the mark.) What’s much harder to estimate is what the financial fallout will be from the more than US$20 trillion of credit churned out by the shadow banking system between 2008 and 2014. If large numbers of borrowers start defaulting on their debt – and analysts estimate that’s only a matter of time – Beijing will almost certainly be on the hook for massive bailouts.
With the market thought to be capped at about 21 million bitcoins, it’s unlikely the currency will pose an overwhelming challenge to the People’s Bank of China. But what about other digital currencies created on the mainland? In November, Wired magazine explored the rise of darkcoin, which is fast becoming the chosen medium of drug merchants and others active on the mainland’s black market. It’s not hard to imagine the development of other such cryptocurrencies with Chinese characteristics.
…
Region IV
May the odds be ever in your favor
Coming soon: Your own personal flamethrower — unless you live in California
RedOrbit
21 Mar 2015 at 20:27 ET
If you’ve ever dreamed of owning your own personal flamethrower and you live in a state that doesn’t end with ‘-ornia,’ your dream is about to come true thanks to the folks at Ion Productions and the forthcoming launch of their XM42 hand fire-spewing product.
According to Engadget, the company plans to launch an IndieGoGo campaign for the personal and portable flamethrower that will allow would-be pyromaniacs to acquire one for the low, low price of $700. The device is reportedly capable of shooting a column of 87 Octane flame up to 25 feet and can be used to clear weeds, melt snow, and combat insects and other pests.
We imagine that it’s also quite good at roasting marshmallows and cooking weenies.
On its website, Ion Productions explains that the XM42 was created “with both aesthetics and performance in mind” and is based on a prototype originally developed back in 2008. They also describe it as “simply to use” and that it has “endless possibilities for entertainment and utility.”
The XM42 will be available in brushed aluminum for $699 and either a polished aluminum or colored powder coat for $799, but those prices are only good for early adopters who support the company through their fund-raising campaign. The flamethrower will also be available through Ion Production’s website once production of the devices get underway.
“Wait a minute,” you may be asking. “Is it even legal for someone to own a flamethrower?” In an FAQ page on the company’s website, the developers assures us that it is in most states.
In California, though, unlicensed possession of “any non-stationary and transportable device designed or intended to emit or propel a burning stream of combustible or flammable liquid a distance of at least 10 feet” is a misdemeanor punishable by up to one year in prison. Licenses can be obtained from the state fire marshal, however, they helpfully pointed out.
“Check with your local laws before ordering,” the XM42 team advises, emphasizing that it is up to the customer “to understand and abide by all country, state, and local regulations.” They added that the device “is solely intended for entertainment and utility purposes only” and that currently, “flamethrowers are a fun toy for responsible adults and are useful utility
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/03/coming-soon-your-own-personal-flamethrower-unless-you-live-in-california/
I got my flamethrower from HarborFreight for a pittance. Hook it up to a propane tank and get an 8 foot long column of flame as long as you hold the trigger. It burns flammable vapor & doesn’t spit out any liquid, sorry. Does wonders on weeds & pieces of tree stumps. Hold it over a patch of dirt & it will also kill superficial weed seeds. I was sorely tempted to use it to clear ice from my driveway this winter, but didn’t.
I watched a guy barbecue himself with one. He looked like a cartoon character.
Election 2016: The perfect candidate
By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 12:31 PM ET, Sun March 22, 2015
Washington (CNN)If you could create the perfect candidate to succeed Barack Obama as president, what would their background be and what would they think?
A new CNN/ORC poll finds most Americans say they would like a candidate who’s a seasoned political leader, someone with an executive background, and someone who’s willing to change Barack Obama’s policies.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-perfect-candidate/index.html
Dan’s man Ted has thrown his hat into the ring. A vote for Ted is a vote for Government Sachs!
Six things to know about Ted Cruz as he launches 2016 bid
By: Catalina Camia 10 hours ago
Ted Cruz speaks at the Strafford County (N.H.) GOP Committee Chili and Chat. (Jim Cole, AP)
What do you know about GOP presidential hopeful Ted Cruz beyond being a senator representing Texas? Here are six topics to get you started:
HIS FAMILY
Ted Cruz met his wife, Heidi, in Austin when they worked on George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign. She went on to work at the National Security Council under Condoleezza Rice and at the U.S. Treasury Department. Heidi Nelson Cruz is now a managing director for Goldman Sachs in Houston.
…
Crushing.Housing.Losses.
Well this might rock the boat: anti-establishment upstart political party “Podema” in Spain just scored an impressive election result, part of a growing Europe-wide rejection of the corrupt political elites and their bankster patrons.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/22/us-spain-election-idUSKBN0MI0B220150322
Salinas Metro CA List Prices Crater 15% YoY As Prices Sink Nationally
http://www.zillow.com/salinas-ca/home-values/
strawberry pickers down there were buying 500k homes not that long ago. anything on the ca coast is overpriced.
Salinas Metro CA
Median home price: 360K*
Rent: 1.7K*
Interest Rate: 3.7%
* Your Zillow site
Do the math. What’s crazy there?
You can do math Lola?
Oh dear how you do lie Lola.
Median list; $428k
Median rent; $1276
There is no reason to lie Lola. Now do the math. Don’t forget the losses to depreciation.
There is no reason to lie
Sorry. My mistake. I just glanced at the bottom “Salinas metro median” rent of $1725 which I assumed was Salinas. Why would it not be?
The median home value in Salinas is $359,000. Salinas home values have gone up 17.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.4% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Salinas is $264, which is lower than the Salinas Metro average of $379. The median price of homes currently listed in Salinas is $428,400 while the median price of homes that sold is $353,000. The median rent price in Salinas is $1,276, which is lower than the Salinas Metro median of $1,725.