A Congruence Of Interests Cashing In On The Bubble
A weekend topic on the media and housing bubbles. A curious thing has been happening in Ireland. From RTE News. “An academic who specialises in media analysis has told the Banking Inquiry that, overwhelmingly, the Irish media maintained that there was no bubble and that the boom would eventually end in a ’soft landing’. Dr Julien Mercille of UCD said there was a clear discrepancy between coverage of the housing bubble before and after it burst. He said that before 2008, the media tended to largely ignore it and it was only months after it had started deflating that reality had to be faced.”
“Dr Mercille said that after the crash, the media also presented the Government’s crisis resolution policies in a largely favourable manner. Dr Mercille also spoke about the large amount of money received from property advertising and he said the Irish media went even further by becoming owners of property websites themselves, acquiring a direct stake in the growing housing bubble. He said Prime Time also sustained the housing bubble. Between 2000 and 2007, 717 shows were aired. Of those, only ten, or about 1% of the total, had a segment concerned with the housing boom.”
“Dr Mercille said it did influence coverage and he said former business editor of the Sunday Independent Shane Ross had said there were explicit threats to move advertising and he said journalists were under pressure from bosses to give good coverage. It did not have to be explicit pressure, journalists knew very well the rules to play by within institutions.”
“The editor of the Irish Examiner has told the inquiry that he accepts that the newspaper contained an insufficient critique of frequent claims that there would be no crash and that the economic miracle would continue to be an example. Tim Vaughan said it was a matter of personal regret but he said that he doubted such coverage would have gone a long way to preventing the crash. He said if it was guilty of anything, it was that it believed and accepted that institutions like the financial regulator were doing their jobs competently and with due diligence.”
“He said they still have been faced with an alignment of authority in the form of the IMF, the ECB, the European Commission and the International Credit Agencies along with the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, the Central Bank and the ESRI, who were all of the view that the country’s economic fundamentals were sound - with the IMF giving Ireland a clean bill of health as late as 2006/2007. He said it would have been difficult to envisage how any media organisation could effectively challenge such a formidable consensus.”
The Irish Times. “Property porn in the media during the boom years helped push a social appetite for moving up the ladder, the Oireachtas banking inquiry has heard. Dublin Institute of Technology media lecturer Harry Browne said such material existed in TV and print journalism in the form of property programmes and lifestyle features. ‘[THIS] encouraged readers to constantly think about going higher and higher up the ladder,’ he said. ‘To think about how to getting that bigger house; to think about how to decorate their apartment in Bulgaria, that sort of thing.’”
“However he said there was not necessarily a ‘conflict of interest’ arising between invested parties during the formation of the property bubble. ‘It is tempting to conclude that there is no real conflict of interest at all but rather a congruence of interests between media organisations and the developers and financiers who were advertising with them and cashing in constantly on the speculative bubble.’”
“UCD academic Dr Julien Mercille said the media’s close relationship with the political and corporate establishment prevented it from being a critical watchdog of the growing property bubble in the build up to the crash. ‘A number of journalists simply acted as cheerleaders for the property sector,’ he said.”
My Suncoast in Florida. “The days when foreclosure signs littered neighborhoods are long gone, especially on the Suncoast. The increase in the number of homes being sold is just part of the good news. Toni Zarghami a realtor with Keller Williams, says the prices of those properties have also jumped. The news has many like Mollie Nelson, a longtime Sarasota resident who’s invested in multiple properties celebrating. ‘I am excited; so much of what I see in Sarasota reminds me of what I saw in Naples in 1998,’ added Nelson. ‘Naples began a really huge turn about where their property values doubled and tippled because they were found by the new young money. I say if you want it you better buy it now because it’s going to be like Naples in two years — it would be worth a lot more than you’d every dream of.’”
The Buckeye Lake Beacon in Ohio. “The average sale price of a home during the month of February was $180,527, which is a 10.4 percent gain over February 2014. The median sale price in February was $150,000, up 11.4 percent from a year ago, according to the Columbus REALTORS(r) Multiple Listing Service. ‘The increase in homes sold and in contract is an indication that buyers are hungry and ready to pounce on inventory,’ said Kathy Shiflet, Columbus REALTORS(r) 2015 President. ‘Buyers are eager, engaged and not wasting any time!’”
KSHB Kansas City on Missouri. “Sally Moore, Real Estate Agent at Keller Williams is telling clients it’s a seller’s market. ‘If you’ve ever thought of selling your home, now is the time to do it,’ said Moore. ‘We’ve sold one house the same day before we could even get the sign in the yard.’”
“Reggie Maggard is trying to buy a house as an investment property. He said he’s made offers on four homes and it was too late. ‘On one house, I put in an offer the first day it was available and I thought sure I would get it; but it turned out that someone made an offer and the homeowner had already accepted it so fast that other Realtors didn’t even know an offer had been made,’ Maggard explained. ‘It’’s definitely disappointing.’”
The Denver Post in Colorado. “Denver’s tight housing market has morphed into a version of ‘The Hunger Games,’ with buyers scrounging for whatever weapons they can find to remain the last bidder standing. ‘Everything is flying off the shelf,’ said Chad Ochsner, a broker with Re/Max Alliance in Arvada. ‘We are used to a market where the buyer has a house to sell. It is now a market where a seller does not have a house to buy.’”
“By some estimates, as many as a fifth of metro Denver home sales may be happening outside the multiple listing service, as buyers and their agents hunt down prospective sellers before they list. Of those that do list, a new sales approach, which looks more like an auction, is becoming the norm, especially for the most affordable homes. In spring 2013 — the last time mortgage rates dipped below 4 percent and buyers went into a frenzy — the local housing market was still recovering. Presenting the first and best offer often won the day.”
“With 30-year mortgages averaging about 3.78 percent today, the newer game still requires speed, but a buyer must outsmart and outlast 10, 15 or 20 or more contenders. To tip the odds in their favor, some buyers write ‘love letters’ or send videos pleading their case. Others bake cookies or send flowers. But agents give those tactics mixed reviews, and some don’t present the offerings to clients.”
“Two years ago, agents said higher home prices would restore balance to the market by bringing out more sellers. Prices did rise substantially, but the inventory of homes for sale remains tighter than ever. Of the active listings, only 1,212 were priced under $400,000, the part of the market in highest demand among buyers. Most are existing homes offered for sale. The volume of listings normally doubles in April versus January in metro Denver. But buyers this year have been out in force since mid-January after a sharp drop in mortgage rates.”
“Buyers entering the arena in coming weeks need to realize they will drop into hand-to-hand combat with battle-scarred competitors who are frustrated and still hungry for a home.”
Redmond, WA List Prices Crash 12% YoY; Prices Turn Negative On West Coast
http://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
HA, HA, Hilarious. We went over this yesterday when a Redmond resident reported your post is not true.
Zillow also indicates the market is “Hot” and predicts values will increase 6.2%.
Don’t let the facts get in your way, HA!
Data Jingle_Fraud Data.
Kirkland, WA List Prices Dive 9% YoY As Unemployment Ramps Up
http://www.zillow.com/kirkland-wa/home-values/
No point in addressing it again. We all see your charade now…….HA, HA, HA!
Befriend the data Jingle_Fraud.
Seattle, WA List Prices Plunge 10% As Housing Correction Ramps Up
http://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98121/home-values/
Hey Jingle - according to the data that HA linked, median list prices in Redmond have indeed dropped 12 % YoY. It’s easy to see for yourself, especially if you are able to calculate percent difference.
This area (Redmond, WA) is still going crazy - just corresponded with a local realtor earlier this morning. Hard to find any 4BR for under $700K.
A major homebuilder is doing a 4-lot short plat within sight of my house. Website (online since last summer): “Prices from the low 900s”
Informational kiosk placed on the site a month ago: “Prices from the mid 900s”
Emailed them about this discrepancy, and a day later, website was modified to: “Prices from the high 900s”
So there is no sign of a slowdown in these parts. I’m not saying that it won’t happen, but we’re not there yet. Too many DINK techies (some with parents contributing 6-figure down payments) trying to outbid each other to live close to work.
“just corresponded with a local realtor”
That’s the problem.
The data?
Redmond, WA List Prices Fall 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
From the RTE article:
‘Dr Mercille said that after the crash, the media also presented the Government’s crisis resolution policies in a largely favourable manner. The media, he said, enthusiastically endorsed the blanket guarantee and declared that it was the ‘cheapest bailout in the world’. NAMA was called ‘bold and imaginative’ and the ‘holy grail’ while The Irish Times claimed that it was our ‘best bet’.
‘In 2006, The Irish Times bought the website MyHome.ie for €50 million, along with the website newaddress.ie. He said television followed the same pattern as the print press. During the boom, RTÉ sustained what he called the national obsession with houses by presenting programmes like House Hunters in the Sun, Showhouse, About the House and I’m an Adult, Get Me Out of Here.’
‘Fianna Fáil Senator Marc MacSharry asked whether he experienced any editorial interference while working at the Irish Times. Mr Browne said he did and it was part of the structure of any organisation. However, he added that while it was a myth that there was a very firm wall between advertising and editorial, he could not say it had impinged very directly on him.’
‘He said there had been an instance of a journalist, in effect, being gifted property. Asked if he meant bricks and mortar, he said yes, in effect.’
‘Asked about threats from advertisers, Mr Vaughan said they were few and far between and would not come directly, they would usually come through the reporter who would say that they had threatened to pull their spend. But he said the newspaper would hold the editorial line.’
‘Mr Vaughan said that with hindsight they would have sought out more contrarian views and more dissenters but the fact was that they were not there. He said nobody was knocking on their doors, adding that they had now learned to seek out more views.’
Thank heaven for the HBB…..
Ben, has anyone ever offered you a house in exchange for an editorial with a favorable review of the market?
I submitted 3 cases of real estate and mortgage fraud to the Sacramento Bee newspaper in 2007-8-9.
Result? More builder advertising!
That’s called fraud Jingle_Fraud. You’re neck deep in it and now you suggest dragging the blog owner into it.
It was a humorously rhetorical question HA. Where is your sense of humor?.
I doubt Ben has ever posted a promotional market opinion, much less been offered a house..
What the Sac Bee did is fail to publish anything about the cases I worked on with the FBI, even though it was compelling reading. The HBBers here enjoyed reading about the cases here, but the Bee would not print anything that might cut into there builder advertising dollars!
It’s an obvious slip showing just how low you’ll go Jingle_Fraud.
Lie for compensation? It’s no wonder your words fail to align with reality.
Monterey County, CA List Prices Dive 12% YoY As Foreclosures Resume Across State
http://www.zillow.com/monterey-county-ca/home-values/
No one has ever offered me a stick of gum for my opinion. What would one more person saying, ‘it’s gonna go up, up UP!’ matter when there are thousands of people saying that every day? Oh, even the HBB blogger thinks thar’s gold in those hills. There are some housing bubble bloggers that have gone on to work in the REIC, or some other financial realm. And some have become kool-aid sellers. I don’t think I would be a good kool-aid seller. I don’t lie very well. Most of what we do here is observe. So readers can interpret and mull things for themselves. And with that goes a healthy skepticism of anything said.
I’ve mentioned this before though; way back I got an email from a Bear Stearns director, asking me to call him. I did and his secretary took my number and I never heard from him again. Eventually there was no Bear Stearns. I’ve always wondered what he wanted to talk about.
I got caught up in two mania’s. In the 80’s real estate was “on fire” in Texas and it seemed as good as anything else to a college student. So I went to study RE in the Dallas area. Not long after it started to crash. In the late 90’s I went to work in the dotcom biz in Austin. That was more of a ‘don’t miss out thing.’ In both cases, I was never a big believer. I was either along for the ride or thought, ‘how could all these people be wrong?’ It was those experiences that taught me the serious downside, and prompted me to start this blog when I got to crazy Sedona in 2004. Instead of easy riches, in those previous booms, I saw a whole bunch of people lose their asses.
I remember when some one said to oxide (after the house purchase) ‘you really have gone over to the dark side.’ This after she said something kinda UHS like. That always stuck with me. Is there a ‘dark side’ in a mania? Is ‘getting in’ on the latest ‘thing’ good or bad? Are those terms accurate? I always come back to this; developers making money on strip malls, or dotcom’s monetizing eyeballs; that’s one thing. But how on Earth did houses turn up in a mania? Highway 54 said, ‘it was the quickest and easiest way to put a few hundred grand in the most peoples hands.’
From PBS, this one has a little of everything:
‘Are investors pumping up another housing bubble in Florida?’
‘PAUL SOLMAN: In Fort Myers, Florida, realtor Marc Joseph’s welcome bus tour, an overview of the local housing market every Wednesday morning. And shades of the last real estate boom here, things are heating up.
MARC JOSEPH, Founder, Marc Joseph Realty: The time to buy is now because inventory is tightening up.
PAUL SOLMAN: Of course, in real estate-speak, now is always the time to buy.
MARC JOSEPH: If you’re questioning if it’s the right time to buy, it is definitely the right time to buy.
PAUL SOLMAN: That was Marc Joseph five years ago, when we first met him, on what he then called Foreclosure Tours R Us, taking rubbernecking retirees around the wreckage of Southwest Florida’s spectacular real estate crash.
PAUL SOLMAN: We met Laura Negron in 2010, translating for Marc Joseph in a cash-for-keys transaction, a sort of voluntary eviction. It hit home because Negron herself was in default on her mortgage, hadn’t made a payment in nearly a year.’
PAUL SOLMAN: Today, Negron still works for Marc Joseph, has been promoted to real estate agent. LAURA NEGRON: We had to short-sale our house. We did a bankruptcy. PAUL SOLMAN: And are you going to buy in the next year or two? LAURA NEGRON: Absolutely. Can’t wait.
MARC JOSEPH: We have large hedge funds in our area buying up mass amounts of houses, renting them out, and then they take them in big pools and they sell them up to the New York Stock Exchange, to the REITs, the real estate investment trusts.
PAUL SOLMAN: What Joseph senses is, to put it bluntly, another bubble in the making. MARC JOSEPH: To go from $85,000 to $200,000 in five years? My fear is the people that are in those homes, if they don’t make their rent payments…’
PAUL SOLMAN: See you later. MARC JOSEPH: We have a lot of see-you-laters. PAUL SOLMAN: And a lot of investors losing a lot money.
MARC JOSEPH: It’s a big scary thing, because we are getting almost to where we were in 2005 at $317,000. And if we get there, how does that schoolteacher, how does that fireman, how does that police officer, how do they buy a house when it’s $317,000?
Oh, we’re going to get creative. We’re going to give them zero down, no income verification loans. And here we go again. No, we can’t do that.
‘we’re going to get creative…No, we can’t do that’
‘they take them in big pools and they sell them up to the New York Stock Exchange, to the REITs, the real estate investment trusts’
Sounds creative to me Marc.
“We have large hedge funds in our area buying up mass amounts of houses, renting them out, and then they take them in big pools and they sell them up to the New York Stock Exchange, to the REITs, the real estate investment trusts.”
“… and they sell them up to the New York Stock Exchange, to the REITs, the real estate investment trusts.”
New York Stock Exchange, the real estate investment trusts = Huge piles of Other People’s Money.
Ignorant pukes who would never think of buying one of these overpriced houses themselves will not hesitate to throw their money at a so-called investment pros who will buy up entire neighborhoods on the ignorant puke’s behalf and will charge the ignorant puke a hefty fee for doing so.
And charge and charge and charge for as long as the ignorant puke is willing to play The Game.
Bahahaha … dumb ‘em down, and profit.
LOL. Good stuff, Mr. Banker, good stuff.
Quality condos for in Ft. Myers are in high demand by snow birds….particularly from Boston!
Nice properties you could rent for $3,000/week in 2010 are now going for $10,000/week. Agents are writing & phoning owners and even going door to door cold calling for weekly & monthly units to rent.
Bubblicious rental market!
Oops, per month, not week.
Speaking of Florida condos Jingle_Fraud;
Sarasota, FL Condo Sale Prices Plunge 11% YoY On Cratering Demand
http://www.zillow.com/sarasota-fl/home-values/
Another clue you are off, Jingle Male, is simply the listings on Craigslist. http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/search/apa
The guy simply pulls numbers out of his ass. He has no idea what he’s talking about.
http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/lee/vac/4938626527.html
You can rent this for $5-15k per week.
I certainly wasn’t taking about the product you listed in Ft. Myers. I should have been more specific.
‘There’s a housing bubble along the beach that would burst, were it not for the feds. Oceanfront property values on the East Coast could plummet if Congress suddenly pulled the plug on beach nourishment funding and state and local government had to foot the bill, a new study found.’
“Values could erode by as much as 17 percent in towns with high property values and almost 34 percent in towns with low property values,” Martin D. Smith, professor of environmental economics at Duke University, said in a release about the study he coauthored. “This would be analogous to the bursting of a bubble.”
‘Expectation that the federal government will keep providing subsidies for beach erosion control has significantly inflated property values in coastal communities, said Dylan E. McNamara, associate professor of physics and physical oceanography at the University of North Carolina Wilmington.’
“It absolutely applies to locations like Melbourne,” McNamara said. “If the subsidy were to disappear tomorrow, the intrinsic value of the property would drop dramatically.”
‘Between 1995 and 2002, the federal government spent $787 million on beach nourishment and has historically paid two-thirds of the costs. But some legislators in recent years have called for deep cuts in federal spending on nourishment or ending the subsidies.’
“It’s a complicated issue, especially at a time when rising sea levels and increased storminess are projected,” Smith said. “No one wants to foot the bill for unnecessary subsidies. But if you don’t pay for defensive nourishment and end up having to pay more in disaster relief, it doesn’t make economic sense.”
‘McNamara said the potential property decreases from a reduced federal role in beach renourishment would worsen if the rate of sea-level rise increases. Their study suggests that if the federal government wants to discontinue nourishment subsidies, the change should be gradual not drastic, to ease the property value decreases.’
The government should protect us from losing money on our mansions on shifting sand.
The next time a natural disaster like Sandy wipes out beachfront property, remember that it is your federal tax dollars that help support the value of homes in such areas.
‘The nation’s housing market continues to gain traction in the wake of the Great Recession and it’s boosting home furnishing sales. Rit Mathis, general manager of the massive 460,000-square-foot Mathis Bros. Furniture store in Ontario, said he’s seen an uptick in business. “We’ve had three consecutive years of double-digit gains and we expect more of that in 2015,” he said.’
‘Bob Maricich, chief executive officer of International Market Centers, the world’s largest operator of showroom space for the furnishings, home decor and gift industries, says things are headed in the right direction. But he still describes the U.S. housing market as “tepid but solid.”
“We know how the baby boomers and Gen-Xers behave, but now we have about 70 million millennials coming in,” Maricich said. “Are they going to want to live in tiny apartments in the center of the city? We’re generationally getting to a pivot point. Aging baby boomers are exiting the market and a whole new wave is moving in. That reinforces where the jobs are. People are migrating back into cities where there is public transportation.”
‘We’ve had three consecutive years of double-digit gains and we expect more of that’
Click!
Weird market in my NorCal zip code. Inventory and sales are down. Prices flat to slowly creeping up. Months of inventory just under 3, which normally means sellers should be in control entertaining multiple offers and climbing prices, but that’s not what’s happening.
To me it feels like there’s few buyers who can afford these price levels. But prices can’t fall because there are also few sellers leaving a tight inventory, and the two forces are offsetting each other. There seems to be this knife-edge equilibrium but it feels precarious…
There is plenty of inventory regardless of location. This is why prices are falling.
Don’t let the actual stats cloud your preconceived ideas HA.
Strange you don’t provide data to support your false assertion.
I have a friend that lives in Vegas. His Community (about 150 homeowners) is in turmoil because a member of his HOA Board is stirring up trouble. This particular person is writing and distributing nasty letters to the homeowners about his fellow board members and he is attempting to initiate a recall against two of the Board members that he seems to particularly dislike.
In between receiving these letters someone in the neighborhood decided to check out his mortgage status. Big surprise, although he is employed and both he and his wife transport themselves around town in very nice automobiles, a check of the County records showed that he had a NOD filed on his property about two years ago.
Needless to say, the sharing of this information to fellow homeowners is going to put a serious dent in the HOA letter writer’s plans to take over the Board.
Who believes in “actual stats” anymore?
IMHO: If all the millions of foreclosed homes filled with non-paying FB’s in this Country were put on the market tomorrow the median price for a SFR would collapse to pretty much zero by lunch time.
Would you call (EIGHT THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED THIRTY THREE) 8433 too many listings when at least 20 percent of real estate transactions reported in the local paper each week are banks and Fannie may properties buy or sell transactions.
http://search.cnyrealtor.com/SiteContent/PropertySearch.aspx?listview=Y
There is very little for sale in my north Seattle location. Doesn’t matter much to me because I rent a nice house for much less than what it would cost to buy. But it would be false to state that there is a lot of inventory. One would have to push outside the city limits before inventory opens up in places like Shoreline.
I don’t think you have to worry much about housing inventory in Seattle. It’s up 121% and is down YoY and falling.
I think there is tremendous bifurcation in the market. True, I probably could find housing in West Seattle, but I would have to place my daughters in private school, especially at the junior and high school level. Which would eradicate any savings in housing.
I don’t really worry. I just rent. I think you oversimplify the data you’re seeing. On a more granular level, it is difficult to find housing in a decent area. Check out my zip - 98105. Very little available, and nothing that would make sense for someone currently renting at 2000/month.
Rents are lower today than they were in 2011 and you’re already overpaying for rent in your own zip code, yet still half the cost of buying… again in your own zip code.
I can’t help you with the data. It is what it is but we’re all best off holding onto every dollar you can while housing fundamentals continue to crumble in Seattle and the rest of the country.
HA:
On what planet are rents lower now than in 2011?
Here in Redmond my friend is a painter for several apt. complexes and he keeps me updated on things.
We have been having annual double-digit % rent increases in this area.
Because I bought in 1998, my mortgage on my house is half what it would cost to rent it today.
That would be Seattle… and Redmond. See for yourself.
http://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98105/home-values/
http://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa/home-values/
As for your $800 mortgage, have you included your losses to depreciation?
“Because I bought in 1998, my mortgage on my house is half what it would cost to rent it today.”
I would put that house on the market TOMORROW. It is quite likely the value will never be higher.
It was about the same where I live in Sonoma Co. and prices are about flat…but inventory is rising FAST and is currently at a 3 year high so I’m expecting a serious slide in prices this summer.
http://www.movoto.com/santa-rosa-ca/market-trends/#city=&time=5Y&metric=Inventory&type=0
Santa Rosa sale prices are down 6% YoY… and falling.
http://www.zillow.com/santa-rosa-ca-95409/home-values/
To me it feels like there’s few buyers who can afford these price levels. But prices can’t fall because there are also few sellers leaving a tight inventory, and the two forces are offsetting each other. There seems to be this knife-edge equilibrium but it feels precarious…
A real estate LaGrange point?
San Luis Obispo, CA Sale Prices Crater 4% YoY As Excess Housing Inventory Balloons
http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-ca/home-values/
“Realtor Nila Racy Threatens BocaNewsNow.com”
http://bocanewsnow.com/2015/03/27/realtor-nila-racy-threatens-bocanewsnow-com-for-reporting-her-dui-arrest/
Hostile, petty and unethical. Yup. That’s realtor.
Denver is going absolutely nuts… I just can’t figure it it. Will it ever stop?
Out of control rents forcing people out:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/thenow/soaring-rental-prices-are-forcing-some-denver-renters-to-out-of-their-apartments
Are you sure about that? The data says otherwise.
Denver, CO Housing Demand Sinks YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
FWIW, the Denver data on that table is restricted to Denver City. A lot of areas in Denver are armpits. I’m guessing that the first article is referring to the entire metro area.
From what I’m hearing at the lunch table, the Denver metro bubble is still in full swing, but it depends on the neighborhood. From what I’m hearing from coworkers houses still sell quickly, with multiple offers, in the desirable nabes.
What is especially odd about this is that you’d think that with so much demand that new houses would be popping up like mushrooms after a rainstorm. There is some construction but there isn’t a SFH building frenzy like there was in the previous bubble.
That’s the point. Demand is falling across the state.
Well, I don’t know… My wife and I looked at a SFH in Arvada a few weeks ago. A real POS house, 3 bed, 2 bath. Extremely outdated, with some structural issues, for $230k. We were there on Day 1, in the afternoon. There were at least 3 other couples there while we looked at it, and the RE agent told is they had already had 50+ showings and several offers. It’s just amazing to see, and doesn’t appear to be slowing down in the slightest.
Don’t know what to tell you but. Demand plummeted 15% YoY in Arvada…. and still falling.
See for yourself.
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
HA,
I can’t open that link on my phone, but I will look at it on my desktop later. Thanks for the info, it’s just a frustrating situation for us (my wife and I) in the Denver area. We are EXTREMELY lucky we have a good landlord and rental.
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?
A preference for fixed, predictable costs, maybe? Buying would have been much more expensive in my area, but my costs would have been known; as a renter, they are less predictable: my LL increased my rent by 30% to adjust for the last 5yrs when I had no increase. Thankfully, it won’t significantly affect my budget, but I can imagine for some people, the value of predictable expenses would be higher.
Must be a strange place considering rental rates have remained flat or fallen across the US.
“…my LL increased my rent by 30% to adjust for the last 5yrs when I had no increase.”
Unless your rent after the 30% increase is in line with the other choices in your area, why not just relocate?
I looked briefly (limited time right now) on CL; I didn’t see anything else as nice in the same price range.
So I actually think he is increasing it to a still-relatively-reasonable market rent.
The rental market data does appear show Seattle rents being up ~30% since 2009.
Not even remotely close.
Rental rates are up low double digit percentages since then, at best. Yet rental rates are still a fraction of the cost of buying in Seattle or anywhere else for that matter.
Once again. Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?
A mortgage on our place at the current Zestimate of around $610K, assuming 30-year fixed at the recent Freddie Mac average rate of 3.69%, is over $2800/month, which is already higher than our rent before considering HOA dues, yard care, taxes, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc etc etc.
Zilldo’s estimated refi payment is $2235, which is clearly calculated using flawed assumptions.
Rental rates are up low double digit percentages since then, at best.
What is your data-source for that claim?
According to the NAR (and yes, I know that they lie), Seattle is up 32.38% since 2009:
http://www.realtytoday.com/articles/11826/20150317/worst-cities-home-rental-new-york-seattle-orleans-places-renters.htm
http://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/53172/nar-rent-and-income-growth-reaching-unhealthy-levels
My rental’s Zestimate is currently $545K (it was about $400K when I first rented it in 2010). My rent of $1750 compares well with the price to purchase of ~$2500/mo (plus property taxes!)
However, if I had bought it back in 2010, and refi’ed at the historical lows, the mortgage would be roughly what I am paying today in rent.
So rent is not always “half the cost”—and I expect my rent to continue to go up over time, unlike a fixed mortgage payment (though taxes and insurance would continue to go up even on a purchase).
I expect both the purchase price of you rental as well as the rent to go DOWN very soon.
There were at least 3 other couples there while we looked at it, and the RE agent told is they had already had 50+ showings and several offers. It’s just amazing to see, and doesn’t appear to be slowing down in the slightest.
That’s what I’m hearing at the lunch table. Heck, one of my coworkers sold her Arvada house, was listed on a Friday , had four offers by the next day. I recall when she was getting ready to put her house on the market. I told her that she might have to be patient to sell it. She laughed at me. Said her realtor told her it would sell in one day.
Based on what I’m seeing and hearing, I don’t know where this “collapsing demand” is happening in Denver, because all I hear from people I know is that they sell their house in one day with multiple offers, and that they don’t sell until they have an offer accepted on the next house.
I know it can’t last, but for the time being it’s baffling.
The words of degenerate gamblers or the data….
Which one?
Arvada, CO List Prices Dive 6% As Housing Inventory Skyrockets 135%
http://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/
Former Summit, CO Realtor Association CEO Pleads Guilty To Felony Theft
http://www.summitdaily.com/news/15514647-113/former-summit-association-of-realtors-ceo-sue-frank-pleads-guilty
San Diego, CA Sale Prices Nose Dive 18% YoY; Foreclosures Balloon
http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92103/home-values/
“Dr Mercille said that after the crash, the media also presented the Government’s crisis resolution policies in a largely favourable manner. Dr Mercille also spoke about the large amount of money received from property advertising and he said the Irish media went even further by becoming owners of property websites themselves, acquiring a direct stake in the growing housing bubble. He said Prime Time also sustained the housing bubble. Between 2000 and 2007, 717 shows were aired. Of those, only ten, or about 1% of the total, had a segment concerned with the housing boom.”
As a resident of a town where the leading newspaper is owned by a real estate developer, I totally get this.
Curiouser and curiouser…
Artist’s rendering of proposed Inglewood stadium
Chargers in Inglewood? Looks like it
Could all or part of the team be sold?
By Don Bauder, March 27, 2015
Channel 10 is reporting tonight that the plans for Stan Kroenke’s stadium in Inglewood have separate locker rooms for two home teams and two separate owners’ boxes. Ergo, two National Football League teams will occupy the stadium. (The Giants and Jets share a New Jersey stadium.)
A source told Channel 10 that the two teams will be the St. Louis Rams (owned by Kroenke) and the Chargers.
This makes sense. The behavior of Chargers spokesman Mark Fabiani has suggested for some time that the team is doing its best to get out of San Diego, if it has the funds to do so.
A question is whether the Spanos family has the money that Kroenke would likely demand for a second team occupying his stadium.
There are several ways this problem could be solved. The Chargers — or a significant percentage of the team — could be sold. After all, the value of the franchise will rise sharply if it moves into the juicy Los Angeles market. If the Los Angeles Clippers are worth $2 billion, what would a percentage (or all) of the Chargers be worth? Or the Chargers may permit Kroenke to take a large chunk of revenue from luxury seats, boxes, seat licenses, ad and naming rights, and the like. And there could be other avenues.
If the two-team Inglewood scenario is likely, there are more questions: 1. Has the joint task force been informed of this? 2. Has it suspected it? 3. Are there some moneybags waiting to grab rich acreage in San Diego that was supposed to go for a football stadium?
…
This hotel that features $400/night rooms opened up in 2006…oops.
It was just sold last week against a backdrop of political intrigue.
Unauthorized helicopter landing pad built at the Grand Del Mar
Carmel Valley
Mission Valley
News Ticker
Manchester sells Grand Del Mar to Di-Fi’s hubby
U-T remains on the block as would-be power brokers jockey
By Matt Potter, March 26, 2015
The San Diego footprint of Douglas Manchester, the Republican financial kingpin who likes to be called “Papa,” has been poised to shrink substantially with the putative sale of his U-T San Diego newspaper operation.
Now comes word via the U-T, that the voluble real estate developer has unloaded a majority interest in his Grand Del Mar resort to none other than Richard Blum, rich and controversial husband of Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein, and the Fairmont Hotels chain.
“This represents a diversification of our investments and is an opportunity to invest with Blum Capital and Fairmont,” the paper quoted Manchester second-in-command Richard Gibbons as saying.
“While the actual purchase price was not disclosed, Gibbons said Fairmont and financier Richard Blum of Blum Capital Partners will be acquiring an 88 percent share of the resort, valued at $230 million. The 249-room Carmel Valley hotel made its debut in October 2007.”
As reported here last October, Manchester cut a deal with the city to remedy years of environmental violations at the resort, clearing the way for a possible sale. The arrangement was not wholeheartedly supported by planning commissioner James Whalen, who said of Manchester’s long string of permit breaches, “The behavior of this developer impugns all developers.”
Manchester reached his deal with the city following the takeover of planning powers by GOP mayor Kevin Faulconer, to whose cause the publisher had heavily contributed. At the time the permit was approved, a lawyer for Manchester denied the property was on the market.
Besides the hotel deal, there are other signs Manchester is in retreat. According to the U-T: “Last weekend, Manchester closed his La Jolla restaurant, Bijou, which he opened two years earlier as Amaya.”
Meanwhile, the twisted tug-of-war for control of Manchester’s U-T San Diego and its remaining political influence continues to play out on the newspaper’s pages and behind the scenes among local power brokers, say informed observers who point to two fresh developments.
The first comes in the form of a March 25 editorial blast against Chargers owner Dean Spanos, long the newspaper’s darling, who it now casts as the prime villain in the team’s putative move to L.A.
“Chargers president Dean Spanos still publicly insists he wants to keep the team here, but every move the team makes behind the scenes says otherwise,” the editorial maintains.
“Perhaps our own desire to see the team remain in San Diego, along with our desire to believe Spanos when he said he wants to stay, blinded us to reality.”
Adds the paper, “If this team ends up in Los Angeles, it won’t be because ownership exhausted all opportunities to reach a deal in San Diego. It will be because, when it came to crunch time, they didn’t try.”
The concession by U-T editorialists that the Chargers move may be inevitable appears to be at odds with a March 26 story on its website, under the byline of sports writer Nick Canepa, hailing a move by San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and his fellow Republican county supervisor Ron Roberts, to dump taxpayer money into an effort to ply the team with a big stadium subsidy.
“The immediate plan is to share costs to bring in consultants and attorneys,” according to Canepa’s story.
The apparent split between the news and editorial voices of the once-proud newspaper is something new for the U-T, political insiders note. The paper helped orchestrate Faulconer’s election as mayor last year at the same time its publisher, mega-millionaire GOP real estate kingpin Douglas Manchester, was making $356,000 in campaign contributions.
The schism comes amid continuing reports that Manchester intends to unload the troubled media operation. Potential power players in a would-be change of command reportedly include Chicago’s Tribune Publishing; Point Loma real estate mogul and yachtsman Malin Burnham; and radio entrepreneur John Lynch, Manchester’s original partner in the U-T purchase.
Media watchers think they may have spotted yet another contender, or a guise for one of the current hopefuls, in the form of a Rancho Santa Fe–based company called New Age Media Enterprises, which is advertising online for a chief financial officer.
“New Age Media enterprises is a newly formed LLC, located in San Diego, California, which is acquiring several traditional media assets and transforming them into a multi-media, multi-platform Company,” the employment notice says.
“New Age has contracted to acquire several major newspaper and broadcast assets and their digital assets. The Company is fully funded and will have significant [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.]”
Adds the advertisement, “The first acquisition is scheduled to close in early April. Accordingly, the candidate will be required to join New Age soon. New Age will have approximately 800 to 1000 employees. The Company will likely continue to acquire additional media assets in other major markets.”
Those following the U-T intrigue note that New Age’s multimedia game plan sounds a lot like Rancho Santa Fe resident Lynch’s line at the paper before he was kicked upstairs in February of last year — reportedly to work on acquisitions — just before the costly cable TV operation he had set up went dark.
…
“The editor of the Irish Examiner has told the inquiry that he accepts that the newspaper contained an insufficient critique of frequent claims that there would be no crash and that the economic miracle would continue to be an example.”
The Irish press of yesteryear is highly reminiscent of today’s China economic news writers.
I wonder what kind of creative lies a certain HBB regular might cook up in an attempt to undercut the stark picture of economic reality served up in this story?
Morgan Stanley Cuts Commodities Outlook on China Demand
by Sungwoo Park
10:12 PM PDT
March 23, 2015
China’s Copper Imports
Workers supervise the unloading of Peruvian copper concentrate from a ship berthed at Nanjing Huining Wharfs Co. Ltd. in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China. The country’s copper imports in February tumbled by the most in four years.
Photographer: Kevin Lee/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley cut its price forecasts for almost all base metals and bulk commodities as China’s “dormant” industry fails to bolster demand in the world’s biggest consumer of copper and iron ore.
The bank reduced its 2015 estimate for nickel by 23 percent from its previous estimate to an average $14,815 a metric ton and lowered copper by 16 percent to $5,945 a ton. It cut its iron ore outlook by 28 percent and coking coal by 16 percent. Industrial metals will perform better than bulk commodities as growth in developed countries supports demand, analysts Tom Price and Joel Crane said in a report on Tuesday.
Commodities are extending their biggest annual slump since 2008 as a collapse in oil prices and the strengthening U.S. dollar reduce the cost of production and as China’s slowing economy saps consumption. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials touched the lowest in more than 12 years on March 18. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this month predicted a 20 percent drop in global raw-material prices over six months.
“With only months left before the mid-year peak in sales of commodity-intensive goods, time is running out for China to support commodity prices in 2015,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the report. “Instead of delivering its reliable first-quarter seasonal expansion in trade, China’s metal processing industry remains dormant.”
China, which last year reported the slowest economic growth in more than two decades, has flagged increasing headwinds that include a property slump and excess industrial capacity. Steel production in the world’s largest producer will contract 0.5 percent this year, Morgan Stanley said.
…
I have no doubt the media is pumping false positive tales. I have been monitoring sales in my community in Boynton Beach, Florida where the tax appraisal price on the 2/3 bedroom homes fell to 80,000 and is now back up to $110,000. Some California outfit had agents buy, do some renovations on and sell three houses for around $130,000. They are now transferred to some SWAY deal to investors.
The thing is that there was only one sale after that, in August of 2014 a unit flipped to $150,000 and nothing since then. Just those 4 deals with flips and transfers.
A year ago the county was holding around 350 foreclosures per week. They dropped to around 250 per week and now are going back up. Squatters are occupying houses that have been empty and what I see going on does not match the news.
I just have to conclude that all this good news about the real estate market is fake. I do not trust anything I hear about the market. Salaries are down and unemployment is way higher than the 5% currently collecting unemployment. It takes three average America salaries to be able to afford the average American home. We simply do not have enough qualified buyers. If the rents are based on mortgage payments, we do not have enough qualified renters either.
I would not expect that the melt down in China is going to help the market here. But with so much manipulation, I just do not know what to expect.
Same here. Market manipulation to the max, squatters, declining sales, homeowners stretched to the max teetering on the edge, etc.
It seems like investors who want to drive up the selling prices in certain areas could easily do so. Florida seems like the perfect state for such shenanigans.
“I would not expect that the melt down in China is going to help the market here.”
Given the massive recent influx of Chinese investors to west coast real estate markets coupled with the plainly obvious economic meltdown playing out for them at home, I’m alot more optimistic than you are — alot! My best guess is that tomorrow’s Chinese equity locust scourge will dry up along the West Coast the same way the California equity locust scourge dried up in neighboring states in the wake of the 2008-09 financial meltdown.
I do not understand what you are saying. Locust scourge? Wouldn’t any benefit they are bringing be coming to an end?
Bothell, WA Sale Prices Plunge 8% YoY As Housing Inventory And Foreclosures Balloon Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/bothell-wa/home-values/
‘Whatever the failings of the media, the notion that it is to blame in any significant way for the bubble simply does not stack up.’
‘The charge that media people failed in their scrutinising duty suggests that they understood what was happening, and the risks involved, but ignored them. As some of the former editors who appeared before the inquiry asked, if most experts - including outsides ones like the IMF - failed to see the risk, how could non-expert reporters?’
‘Journalists are generalists. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming increasingly difficult for generalists to ask the right questions of people who are more and more specialised in their own fields. This problem is compounded by shrinking revenues in many media organisations as technological change transforms the sector.’
‘Opening the session on the media was Dr Julien Mercille, an academic geographer who specialises in media studies (and American foreign policy). He was at the inquiry to give expert opinion on the media.’
‘Dr Mercille is a man of the hard left. In his hard-left worldview, capitalism is dominated by interconnected elites, who are in the minority, but because they wield all the power they are able to keep the majority poor and suppressed. All of those in the ‘elite’ are involved in the perpetuation of systematic unfairness in society; some do so deliberately and some are mere dupes, too foolish or to unquestioning to know what they are doing.’
‘All media organisations of any size in Ireland are part of this elite, according to Dr Mercille. “Both private and State-owned media organisations largely convey corporate and political establishment views,” he told the inquiry last week, going on to say that “because the housing boom was beneficial to key sectors of the Irish corporate and political establishment, it was never seriously challenged”.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/dan-obrien/media-played-little-role-in-inflating-property-bubble-31102589.html
‘The news has many like Mollie Nelson, a longtime Sarasota resident who’s invested in multiple properties celebrating. ‘I am excited; so much of what I see in Sarasota reminds me of what I saw in Naples in 1998,’ added Nelson. ‘Naples began a really huge turn about where their property values doubled and tippled because they were found by the new young money. I say if you want it you better buy it now because it’s going to be like Naples in two years — it would be worth a lot more than you’d every dream of.’
There isn’t anything new about boosterism. What is unusual is that it is now houses. I’m not familiar with Naples house prices and what they did in 98 to 2000. But what’s the basis for this claim? I’ve been to Sarasota. Drive a few miles and it’s open land.
“Basis for this claim”
St Armand circle and a restaurant with a cat outside with a sign around it’s neck saying “I eat here too”.
Last time I was there was about 20 years ago though !
I do not understand the recent extreme strength in SoCal’s beach cities. I have seen a few with multiple offers that hit the market priced 15% higher than last year. This is just crazy. I see some pending sales with an ask much higher than 2007. This recent jump happened so fast. A number of sellers are listing homes at outrageous pricing just to see if they can hook a buyer. I thought the new appraisal regulations would stop that kind of price jumps …
Data my friend data!
Pismo Beach, CA List Prices Plummet 13% YoY; Foreclosures Drive Inventory Up
http://www.zillow.com/pismo-beach-ca/home-values/