Bits Bucket for April 10, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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The “Israel Lobby” conference is too hot for C-SPAN! So watch it from your desktop, phone, laptop or tablet! - Begins at 9AM EST - April 10, live from the National Press Club! Tweet in your questions for speakers to @IsraelLobbyUS or email conference@IsraelLobbyUS.org. Be a part of this important event!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1IIrHsO4fw&authuser=0
Israel Lobby main agenda will be
America needs to kiss Israel a$$ and Obama needs to apologize to Netanyahu.
US needs to bomb Iran with its own money and soldiers. This should be done without question as Jews are the chosen people and God came down and told them of this plan.
US should increase the financial assistance to Israel, Double it or Triple it from the current 30 Billions.
A candidate running for presidential office cannot be allowed to be on the ticket without fully expressing their deep commitment for Israel by promising money and war whenever Israel wants one.
Finally the US is a wholly owned subsidiary of Israel and this must be recognized openly.
Your IP address has been logged and your name has been placed on “the list”
Have a nice day
Ever since I began to suspect I was on “the list”, I started to mail myself random pictures of my ruder parts, so that the poor bastard whose job it is to look at my mail gets an eyeful of yuck from time to time.
Fight the power!
+1 SUGuy
Any thoughts on how much longer it will take for MSM writers to put two and two together and figure out the Echo Bubble has popped?
Have you noticed that Amy Hoak has been AWOL from MarketWatch lately?
we need hire asset prices so the rich can put some of you serfs to work.
Not until it hits them in the face like a shovel will they acknowledge it. Anything short of a collapse will be portrayed as a mere flesh wound.
Housing shortage puts the pinch on Dallas-area homebuyers.
“A house we were interested in would go on the market at 7:30 in the morning and by noon it’s under contract,” Jessica Simpson said. “We had trouble getting in to view a house before we could even put an offer.
“At one house, we made an appointment for 1:30 in the afternoon and they already had 40 offers on the table when we got there.”
“And as hokey as it sounds, she’s seen cases where personal letters from prospective buyers or other actions sometimes clinch a deal.
“Buying or selling a home is a business transaction,” Harmon said. “But at the end of the day, a home is a very personal thing.
“I was working with buyers on one house where the seller had birds that visited every year and it was important to her that those birds were taken care off,” she said. “Sellers often want to feel like their home is handed off to someone that will take care of it.”
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20150409-housing-shortage-puts-the-pinch-on-dallas-area-homebuyers.ece
bzzzzzt…. Wrong Answer.
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX Housing Demand Nosedives 17% YoY As Oil Prices Crater
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Birds in Texas, squirrels in SanFran…..
I wasn’t expecting a new bubble.
I just zillowed my nabe. Zestimate says that my house has risen 15% since I bought it about 3 years ago. There are a huge number of Sold dots compared to For Sale dots, even in the past 6 months.
Even if you could find a buyer at that price you’re still losing money Donk.
Plenty of squirrels around here. I told my wife that when the zombie apocalypse comes, we’ll be living large on squirrels, pecans and peaches while the rest of the unwashed masses become zombie kibble.
I ate some squirrel on a camping trip back in the 90’s, wasn’t too bad. Had kind of a nutty flavor…
Cheer up idgits and remember….
Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.
When the Dow starts to fall, that’s when they’ll notice all the mortgage, car and student loan defaults. Right now, they’re blinded by the light, or “Mannfred Manned” in technical terms.
Echo Bubble has popped ??
Not sure about Echo but there is some serious talk today about China’s bubble…Both stock market & particularly real estate…
From Bloomberg:
“We traveled Across China and Returned Terrified for the Economy”
“China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country. What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook. “China’s metals demand is plummeting,” wrote Kenneth Hoffman, the metals analyst who spent a week traveling across the country, meeting with executives, traders, industry groups and analysts. “Demand is rapidly deteriorating as the government slows its infrastructure building and transforms into a consumer economy.”
“The slowing steel and metals activity suggests the outlook could be grimmer. “There is a big fear this is going to get worse before it gets better,” Hoffman said in an interview. “It’s as bad as the data looks, if not worse.”
See my quote by Christopher Isherwood yesterday in Bits Bucket. They don ‘t think it can happen in China either I guess.
Paging Adan…..
He doesn’t seem to be around, so I’ll fill in for him. Ahem.
These are clearly agents of smart money who are trying to throw the dumb money off the scent of how incredibly great things are going in China, due to their brilliant combination of free market capitalism and totalitarianism, which we should all seek to emulate.
(Insert standard post from China Daily that says everything is going great in China.)
(Insert standard post from China Daily that says everything is going great in China.)
Didn’t you also forget to suggest that it is all being manipulation by Obama?
“Didn’t you also forget to suggest that it is all being manipulation by Obama?”
Doh, I forgot! It was all Obama’s fault, as he ineptly attempts to emulate Reagan, who had the most brilliant intellect since Socrates and Plato teamed up together.
R u trying to send AlbqDan into a posting frenzy?
China is is bad shape, US is in worse shape. Let’s focus on our own house of cards, people.
Creditor nations will always to better than the debtor nations in times of collapse.
It didn’t work out that way in the 1930s, when the US was the creditor nation.
It doesn’t matter how many U.S. bonds China owns, because they couldn’t sell them if they wanted to, and what they owe is far beyond their ability to pay.
How large a tectonic shock did the dollar/oil earthquake create for the S&P 500?
Need to Know
We’re about to find out just how big that dollar/oil hit was the S&P 500
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Apr 10, 2015 7:07 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the market’s open
HBO/Courtesy Everett Collection
The Dow industrials is back within shouting distance of 18,000, in a week that‘s delivered gains of 1%-plus for major indexes. But it’s been hard going. That’s not surprising, as most are biding their time for earnings/“Game of Thrones”/Apple Watch preordering to kick off.
Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at Lindsey Group, recapped yesterday’s weirdness for CNBC. “You had this huge rally in the dollar, but the big caps stocks rallied, and the Russell and midcaps sold off. That’s contra to the pattern we’ve been seeing. The intraday movements are ridiculous. Why did we rally 10 S&P points in the last hour? … These moves are tough to explain, and I think this is just a lot of noise ahead of earnings, to be honest.”
There’s more noise this morning, with the dollar rallying again as stock futures graze in the red. Upbeat jobless claims and a rising view, post-Fed minutes, that a midyear rate hike isn’t such a harebrained prospect are driving the buck.
Watch out for the Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker this morning, says Ilya Spivak, currency strategist for Daily FX. “If his remarks hint at the serious probability of ‘liftoff’ at the June/July policy meetings, the greenback may extend yesterday’s advance.”
…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-about-to-find-out-just-how-big-that-dollaroil-hit-was-for-the-sp-500-2015-04-10
I like buying overpriced assets cause the FED thinks the prices should be high. Gives me a lot of confidence in what I’m buying.
The traders make money by trading - there will always be a certain amount of activity just to generate commissions. But I think Wall Street is getting nervous, and is trying to intice mom and pop into buying stocks now, so they will be the ones left holding the bag when things hit the fan. The problem is, no one trusts Wall Street anymore, and Wall Street can hear the fan getting louder and louder…
The deepest pockets are Uncle Sam’s. It’s all about getting a piece of that printed money. And I don’t want to hear there is some difference between the Fed and the government. It’s all the same oligarchs running it all.
The “government” works for the bankers, plain and simple. They aren’t peers. The Fed is owned by the banking clan, plain and simple. And they control all the elected officials … all of them, D’s and R’s.
Rand Paul can never win a presidential election because he has a funny looking toupee. Or a bad transplant job…hard to tell which.
the media probably wont support him and make it look like he is a lost vote cause he has no chance. They do that to a lot of people.
People will elect somebody who promises more food stamps and disibility checks.
Rand Paul is the only candidate with a microphone and a national audience who says the NSA should stop spying on American citizens
And after he starts losing primaries and drops out of the race, nobody will be talking about that, and worse yet, nobody will care
This country is f*****
Well, he’s making all the right enemies. The depraved Lindsey Graham wants to take him down.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/lindsey-graham-rand-paul-2016-116837.html
Will Lindsey will take one?
We don’t call him Goober Graham for nothin’.
He talks the talk and is my early favorite but I do not have high hopes for him. And he’s not his father. Ron Paul is the only person I have actually voted FOR in a long time, maybe ever.
I am always suspicious of a Congressman, Senator or preacher’s son.
Like Scott Walker?
Yes, like Scott Walker. He’s a preacher’s son, so yes, I am suspicious. This is the difference between me and DNC shills. I apply the same standards to them all.
You weren’t suspicious of him yesterday, you were taking him at his word, assuming he would do everything he was promising, and berating the rest of us for being skeptical.
I was berating the knee jerk reaction from died in the wool libs like you. I didn’t say I believed he would do everything or anything. Of course I can assume you will likewise now post how skeptical you are of Hillary?
Here is what I said:
Wait, so after all the grousing on here by liberals pretending to be moderates and people whining they are all the same a candidate speaks out on an issue in a way that appears to mirror the interests of much or most of the American people and not the Chamber of Commerce and all it gets is knee jerk razz berries ?
Yes, that apple didn’t just fall far from the tree, it bounced like three orchards over.
Still, at least Rand is calling out the NSA, which desperately needs to be done. No one else is. Well, Feinstein did, sort of.
I like his comment about New Hampshire: “When the founders of New Hampshire came up with the motto, ‘Live free or die,’ they didn’t leave a lot of wiggle room. They didn’t clamor to be left half-free. They didn’t whimper to be left half-dead.”
So should we expect Senator Paul to commit suicide?
Goon wants to run his fingers through his curly hair.
You should go floss, looks like you might have some of William Kristol’s short and curlies stuck in your teeth
I was looking up the definition of “fatuous” in the dictionary and danged if there wasn’t a picture of Kristol next to it.
Seriously, Kristol is one big kreep. I’d give anything to be able to wipe that self-satisfied smile off his phyzz.
Cmon it was just a joke. A bit sensitive. He does kind of have funny wavy hair.
We’re all adults here so you know it’s just having a lark
Don’t ask how I know, but if someone were to pleasure Mr. Kristol that way it would be like sucking on a roll of dimes
Don’t ask how I know, but if someone were to pleasure Mr. Kristol that way it would be like sucking on a roll of dimes
So you’re saying that he drives a really big azz truck.
I saw bona fide coal roller this morning. He even had a huge decal on his rear window proudly proclaiming to “Roll coal”.
Some media analysis and source identification:
The Drudge Report is an aggregated website that often drives the “conservative” news cycle. Rush Limbaugh frequently has the Drudge Report online while broadcasting his radio show that starts at noon eastern time, and he often reads from articles linked from the Drudge Report on the air. After his show ends at 3pm, the talking points are then percolated through other talk radio and on Fox News’ afternoon and evening TV shows.
Some examples of Drudge Report links:
CBS Local dot com and/or its advertisers have a financial arrangement with the Drudge Report. These are usually short articles on slow-loading, ad-choked web pages. At any time, links from the various regional subdomains of CBS Local dot com may comprise 5 to 10 percent of all links on the Drudge Report.
More examples:
The Washington Times is controlled by the Unification Church (the Moonies) and is hawkishly conservative and pro-Israel. This newspaper has never been profitable. Because of its name, outside of the Beltway it is often perceived as being some kind of national newspaper of record, though its print and online circulation numbers confirm that it is not.
The Weekly Standard is run by William Kristol, who has a net worth of $200,000,000, and was one of the architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The Weekly Standard favors the nation of Israel with zero consideration of the cost or consequences to the United States.
So he’s the conservative version of the NY Times?
I don’t think he has that much authority, but he does move the movement’s needle in his direction.
Drudge is “safely” conservative. Their unofficial editorial policy could be summarized as: 100% pro-Israel, anti-Muslim, global warming is not real, black on white crime is underreported, marijuana is dangerous, Christianity is under attack. Drudge gives lip service to smaller government, but at its core is the worship of the state, the latter phrase being identical to the editorial policy of the New York Times.
+1
More analysis:
World Net Daily is a Christian Zionist website. Their appeal is to Christian tradcons with an apocalyptic view of American foreign policy, Israel, and the Muslim nations of the Middle East. I personally find World Net Daily anti semitic because of its patronizing tone toward Jewish people, how they are just chess pieces in some grand game for Christians to get themselves Raptured to Heaven.
I don’t get the chess game. If they believe there is gonna be a Rapture (and only they do, Catholics, Orthodox and just about all other non Fundy Protestants are not into the rapture) why not just kick back and wait for it to happen? It is supposedly out of our hands, right?
They believe everything is a script and some man in white knows it all. Logic would then mean they have to become passive, wait for the food to come to them, wait for the shelter to become over their heads, and not participate in politics because things will turn out according to gods plan.
They obviously do not believe it.
They are prone to getting g short circuits in their brains. Dangerous critters.
Breitbart dot com was founded by Andrew Breitbart, who once worked for the liberal Huffington Post, and who died in 2012 under mysterious circumstances, possibly poisoned. Much of its notoriety stems from their pranking of ACORN. Breitbart is very pro-war and pro-Israel, but they also report social commentary, and are not afraid to criticize Marxist feminism. Reporting black on white crime is a Breitbart specialty.
“Reporting black on white crime is a Breitbart specialty.”
I thought our mr. phony had the copyright on that.
Not to be overlooked are the components of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire. Fox News is the most well known in the United States. He also owns the New York Post and a number of papers in the U.K. and Australia. Pro-war, and at its core statist. A study conducted a few years ago reported that people who rely on Fox News for information are less informed than people who get no news at all.
I’d like your take on HuffPo. (this should be entertaining, LOL)
‘Republicans: The Cocaine Monkeys of Defense Spending’
‘They talk nice about cuts, but Republicans won’t say no to the Pentagon, and in the end, they’ll cut a deal that ups domestic spending too.’
‘The opening battle in Congress over the fiscal 2016 budget is illustrative…It was actually quite funny—for a while—to watch Republicans become full-blown Keynesians, arguing that defense cuts would destroy the economy and threaten jobs.’
And Ben - the Democ rats are….?
Yes, it’s funny how different economic theories are applied depending on who is benefitting from government spending.
I don’t read the Huffington Post frequently enough to give in-depth analysis. It’s like a watered down tabloid version of the New York Times.
Among “liberal” media I do give credit to the Washington Post and the U.K. Guardian for being brave enough to publish Glenn Greenwald and Edward Snowden.
More on this later, maybe. Today is the Rockies’ home opener and downtown is gonna be one big party, so I’m expecting alot of customers in the next four hours.
Thanks… and good luck with the product sales.
Rockies fan doing a number: http://deadspin.com/rocky-mountain-high-473908781
I do give credit to the Washington Post and the U.K. Guardian for being brave enough to publish Glenn Greenwald and Edward Snowden.
+infinity…
Sounds like they need to greatly economize on ideas, due to the tremendous scarcity thereof.
See also:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/04/drudge-leads-referral-traffic-for-top-news-sites-205182.html
What ever happened to the Oil City Plan? Haven’t heard it mentioned in quite a while, especially now that oil has tanked 50%. Does it need a new name?
And do we need a pipeline to import Canadian gunk when we don’t have enough room to store our own?
Will an Oildale Plan work just as well?
https://www.google.com/search?q=oildale&biw=1813&bih=857&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=t88nVauJMIXzoATKmoKYBA&sqi=2&ved=0CDEQsAQ&dpr=0.75
“the Oil City Plan”
I hope that everyone here has had more than ample time to have a plan to keep themselves safe.
The “Blue Skye” plan is in place.
I hope that everyone here has had more than ample time to have a plan to keep themselves safe
What is “safe”? No one’s safe according to many here. I have a paid off home, savings, no debt, don’t need a car and I’m walking to a place where I’m going to pay my $150 a month medical/dental insurance. If things get unsafe where I live, they’ll bring in the army to kill the “usual suspects” or I can just get on a plane to “Oildale” USA. Or I’ll get outta dodge to a place in the country.
But if things go to hell, neither a place out in the country or in the USA will be “safe”. There is no “safe”.
So relax and enjoy life imo but stay safe. )
Of course! I will lend you my Captain Obvious hat for today.
Keep your keel off the rocks.
Of course! I will lend you my Captain Obvious hat for today.
Not at all. What’s obvious is that you, BlueSky only lend credence to those who’s political views you subscribe to. For example. My situation is probably financially better off than yours. I know my living comfort level is to me - space, weather, cultural options, etc. But you constantly tell me I’m in a bad situation because the value of my house will go down. Makes no sense unless it’s all politics with you.
Like science. You only believe in the “science” of your politics.
Maybe I should have said “Keep a level keel.”
How in the world you turn my advice to get/stay out of debt and to be prepared for economic potholes “political” but I don’t think it is. Even agreeing with you brings out the borderline behavior.
I think you have no idea about my “financial situation”, is there some kind of a competition?
How in the world you turn my advice to get/stay out of debt and to be prepared for economic potholes “political”
Here’s how:
You don’t like my politics, so for years you’ve been telling me basically that I’ve “made a bad decision” even though you know I’m out of debt, own my home outright and have few bills. There’s no way in the world you’d say that to someone of your political ilk imo. Unless you’re dumb.
is there some kind of a competition?
There is with you.
you brings out the borderline behavior.
Nice Saul Alansky tactic that does not work with me. My “borderline behavior” is dealing in logic.
Brazil is falling back into the dumpster after their mania Bubbleboy. That’s the thing I’ve said you were wrong about all along. All your other points are fabricated deflection and mocking, which is what I call borderline behavior. It is called borderline because it makes relationships (even conversation) quite difficult, borderline impossible. It would take a saint to be polite to you, which I am definitely not.
Who cares what a trans Brazilian’s political affiliations are anyway? Certainly not me.
Well, as long as the relationship between the two of you is not completely impossible, there’s always hope.
That’s the thing I’ve said you were wrong about all along…is there some kind of a competition?
Nope. Your main basis with me BlueSky was that you sat up there on your boat with “no debt” all high and mighty, smug and self-righteous and implied that yours was “the way” and that me building a house for cash and sitting on no debt was a “huge mistake”. Thus your competition with me. You’d never say that to someone who’s politics you believed in because, just as in science, your politics point the direction of your opinions.
I’ve said you were wrong about all along
But I was never wrong. I have posts going back to 2009 telling you Brazil housing prices could go down. Want to see them again? And that’s before house prices tripled. You were wrong on that account too.
a trans Brazilian’s political affiliations
What is a “trans Brazilian”? A Brazilian who lives in both the USA and Brazil? I don’t, and I’m not Brazilian either.
It is called borderline because it makes relationships (even conversation) quite difficult,
But how can anyone have an objective “conversation” with you BlueSky when your politics influence your objectivity?
I’ve done the Oil City plan but in a different way than you, but you don’t like my politics so you trash my Oil City plan. Makes no sense.
If I were a right-winger, you’d never trash my plan of owning a house outright, having no debt, and living a frugal but enjoyable life.
You just have trashed my Oil City plan because you don’t like my politics. Just like you trash science because your science is political.
It would take a saint to be polite to you,
No. Take a look at the sequence of our posts today and see how you came on “polite” with your passive aggressive mockery with your “Captain Obvious” hat etc. You really don’t see things objectively BlueSky and no, you’re no saint at all.
Of course I am passive aggressive, and then less passive.
I enjoyed being debt free, after having been on the other side of the fence. it is much better. I recommend it highly, then and now. Not me that is better, but my situation.
If someone lends you their own hat, that is not an insult. Not to a reasonable person.
I never ever put you down for owning your house. Never. It was for something else entirely, and it is still well deserved! I’ve already mentioned it twice. I don’t care what extreme you like, what wing per se, what club, what mob. That is how you find your identity, not me. From what you said above, that is what gives ideas validity to you, not curiosity, not logic. What a shame.
LOL Mike.
If someone lends you their own hat, that is not an insult.
Then you should thank the person who just lent you their clown hat right?
I never ever put you down for owning your house. Never.
I can’t even believe you even have the gaul to write that. You’ve “never put me down for owning a home”? Are you serious?
Many times when I’ve explained that I own equity outright, you’ve said something like “you own nothing, the equity owns you”. And not just me personally, you’ve made your opinion on that matter quite clear applied to everyone for years.
That’s “putting people down for owning a home” because it implies yours is the way and no other way is the right way.
But absent logic and math, that’s how you find your identity on this board.
And not just me personally, you’ve made your opinion on that matter (owning a home) quite clear applied to everyone for years.
But the big difference is that I’m the only person I know of who’ve you’ve put down for owning a home outright - 100% equity.
I can see questioning someone who borrows 100% to buy a home but I can’t see putting down someone who owns outright, because that’s a real Oil City plan right there.
Cash or financed, it’s a loss Lola.
“Who cares what a trans Brazilian’s political affiliations are anyway? ”
Weren’t you whimpering to me just the other day about how I insult you (which I do not) when I discuss global warming with you?
Are you a liar or a hypocrite, Blue Skye?
You forgot to change your username Lola. Pick another new one.
What ever happened to the Oil City Plan? Haven’t heard it mentioned in quite a while,
I don’t think this has anything to do with the price of oil—more just the fact that those who used to perseverate about it slowly came to realize that those places are cheap because no one wants to live there.
Not so sure the oil boom cities won’t be the new targets for the Oil City Plan after the crash. I think it was originally a reference to oil city, Pa?
For all of the talk, has _anyone_ on this blog pulled the trigger on the Oil City plan? (maybe ‘bye, FL’ did, since he talked about it incessantly, and also disappeared suddenly with no warning or goodbye…)
I still mention the OC plan occasionally. I believe that ByeFl was a woman, because she made multiple references to beanie babies.
I don’t think anyone here on HBB has pulled the trigger on Oil City. I guess we could say that Allena Hansen did, long ago. Blue Skye did some version of it by living in the Southern Tier of New York, again where no one wants to live. Retirees have been doing a version of it for ages by selling the house up north and moving to BF Florida. But it’s clearly a risk for someone of working age who hasn’t built up a nest egg.
We may see more people (not here on HBB, in general) pulling the trigger because of Obamacare. That was always a flaw in the Oil City plan. You can support a cheap house on a low-pay McJob, but you were taking real chances with your health, especially if you did the homesteader thing. With Obamacare you can work for cheap and still get subsidized catastrophic or perhaps Medicaid.
Well, the Finger Lakes are not in the Southern Tier, but small difference in an hour’s drive. One thing is that a significant number of people actually do like living here.
Living debt free is a lifestyle, not a place.
Richard w. m. - yes!! That’s the precise reference!
Here’s the Oil City Plan:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=6629
Combo - what a blast from the past! Had just started my Engineering MS the previous fall. Doing my defense in the coming month. Be nice to have nights and weekends again.
Oh Nooooes! Noooooes!
In this case, where oil has tanked, the Oil City Plan is even more so!
I don’t know about you all, but I - personally - being out of the Ponzi economy, I have not enjoyed any of the benefits of the purportedly expanding economy.
I rather like the Oil City Plan metaphor.
Boy did the regular DNC shills come out in force yesterday. I think Scott Walker scares the heck out of them for some reason.
Wasn’t it the whole Scott Walker thing in Wisconsin a few years back that first brought out the political shills on this blog?
I think Hillary would love to run against Scott Walker.
She’d need to enter the R primary first.
I dunno, but Scott Walker scares the bejabers out of me. And I consider myself conservative.
Has Scott Walker explained where the money comes from to put “boots on the ground” to fight ISIS?
Has Scott Walker explained where the money comes from to put “boots on the ground” to fight ISIS ??
No explanation is necessary to the 40% of the electorate that will vote for him…Thats a diminishing electorate by the way…
I dunno why, but Walker reminds me of Nixon for some reason.
Easy - Yelling will print.
” I think Scott Walker scares the heck out of them for some reason.”
Ah, there’s your innate suspicion of politician who’s the son of a preacher. I thought you were just blowing smoke.
I think Scott Walker scares the heck out of them for some reason.
That’s funny. I’m pretty sure most Democrats wouldn’t mind Scott Walker as the Repub nominee one bit.
It’s not just his policies. Unfortunately, looks matter and he looks like a dim-wit on downers.
Yes, he needs to work on that “I’m listening to the voices inside my head” look that he has sometimes.
A headline:
“U.S. forecaster ups El Nino chance to 70 percent for Northern Hemisphere summer”
A paragraph from the article:
“A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday raised its forecast for the chance of El Nino conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer to 70 percent, up from a 60 percent chance last month, with a 60 percent chance it lasts through autumn.”
And a comment - an opinion - of what this may mean:
“OK, with El Nino the expectation is drier in the NW, the High Plains, in the northern Great Lakes region and in the Appalachians. But, wetter in CA and the OR coast. Also wetter above the Mexican border and the southern Great Plains, the Gulf Coast states, plus ALL of the Eastern Piedmont, and much wetter in the SE and FL. That’s mostly welcome news–especially for beleaguered CA. It buys them SOME little scrap more time to get their act together. If that’s at all possible. Trouble is, CA is its own worst enemy.”
http://news.yahoo.com/cpc-pegs-chance-el-nino-70-percent-northern-131258700.html
FWIW.
I’ll take the sunny weather in the Great Lakes.
Mid sixties all next week, the grass is turning green, and the buds are coming out. Eat dirt sunshine states.
Got Tornado?
No, but we do have plenty of water.
Got Tornado?
Today a black swan and an emu were killed when an Illinois zoo was hit by one.
Just another day on Wall Street. From the NY Times -
“Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion In New York City Pension Gains”
“The Lenape tribe got a better deal on the sale of Manhattan island than New York City’s pension funds have been getting from Wall Street, according to a new analysis by the city comptroller’s office. The analysis concluded that, over the past 10 years, the five pension funds have paid more than $2 billion in fees to money managers and have received virtually nothing in return.”
“After factoring in those fees, his staff found that they had dragged the overall returns $2.5 billion below expectations over the last 10 years. “When you do the math on what we pay Wall Street to actively manage our funds, it’s shocking to realize that fees have not only wiped out any benefit to the funds, but have in fact cost taxpayers billions of dollars in lost returns,” Mr. Stringer said. Why the trustees of the funds — Mr. Stringer included — would not have performed those calculations in the past is not clear.”
“The fees have been disclosed only in footnotes to the funds’ quarterly statements, he said.”
” The managers of those “public asset classes” are usually paid based on the amount of money they manage, not the returns they achieve. Over the last 10 years, the return on those “public asset classes” has surpassed expectations by more than $2 billion, according to the comptroller’s analysis. But nearly all of that extra gain — about 97% — has been eaten up by management fees, leaving just $40 million for the retirees, it found.”
“The analysis concluded that, over the past 10 years, the five pension funds have paid more than $2 billion in fees to money managers and have received virtually nothing in return.”
The average returns on invested capital were much higher then than they are now and thus the high fees were easier to extract then without severely denting the invested capital.
But now? Returns on invested capital suck everywhere so one should expect that managed money should have some hefty dents inflicted here and there because, while the nifty returns may not be there anymore, the hefty fees still are.
A prudent money manager - one who truly looks out for his client’s interests - should probably go to cash (put his client’s money into cash) because the risk/reward ratio for conventional investing is generally not favorable when prices are at these lofty levels.
But this going to cash is something that the investor can do for himself and he would probably not look too favorably on a money manager that charges him hefty fees for going to cash, hence there is a great incentive (called starvation) for a money manager to keep his clients money working in the market because if he didn’t then the client would walk and take his fee-generating money with him.
Charlie Munger: “Never underestimate the power of incentives”.
On a related note: Go here for a definition of “institutional imperative”:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=institutional+imperative
An excerpt:
“1.how an entire organization can rise up to help a boss justify some deal he’s inclined to do, regardless of its merit
2. any company’s inherent propensity to do dumb things (or avoid doing smart things) simply for the sake of doing them.
“1. The stock market collapse was encourage by many respected investors by participating in the overarching financial industry institutional imperative of rolling over debt and reselling them as investments.
2. Warren Buffett in discussing the motivation of bankers and institutional leadership in a 1989 letter. Believes that Institutions are built to appease the wishes of a few in leadership positions, to the point that employees are convinced that they are justified in all of their actions regardless of the effect. Specifically in addressing the needs and motivation of bankers, who will encourage any deal regardless of merit.”
Home in on this statement and give it a bit of thought:
“Specifically in addressing the needs and motivation of bankers, who will encourage any deal regardless of merit.”
Ask yourself these two questions:
1. When a banker “will encourage any deal regardless of risk”, just who’s money is he risking? (Hint: It isn’t his.)
2. What happens to the potential client who hears that ugly word “No” emanate from prudent banker’s prudent lips? Does he not walk out the door (and take his potential fees with him) and go down the street to another bank?
“regardless of risk” should read “regardless of merit”
Cash rules, debt sucks.
As the risk return ratio on invested capital grows increasingly more dismal:
1. The better cash looks and …
2. The more debt sucks.
Chicago pensions next?
Folks in Chicago might want to pay a little more attention to those footnotes.
From Marketwatch:
“Iran would be able to grow production and exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day within weeks of a final deal, but that the need for substantial capital upgrades to Iran’s reservoirs means it would take another six to nine months to ramp up production by the 1 million barrels a day needed to recapture the level of output seen before the sanctions.. Meanwhile, Arab Gulf members of OPEC would probably prove themselves unwilling to cede market share to accommodate rising Iranian output, Dwivedi writes. ”
Darn, I wanted to pay an arm and a leg for gas again, but it looks like it’s not gonna happen.
Darn, I wanted to pay an arm and a leg for gas again, but it looks like it’s not gonna happen
$3/gallon == arm and a leg
$2/gallon == just an arm?
Where is my $1 gas?
From Marketwatch:
“China Scrambles to Defuse Property Bubble”
“While China’s leadership is getting comfortable bedding in expectations of a “new normal” of slower growth for the economy, they must hope it is business as usual for the pivotal real estate market.
But as expectations of subdued or declining property prices also become part of the new economic reality, Chinese households have been spurning real estate as an investment asset. Instead, recent interest-rate cuts have triggered a flood of money into domestic equities and a resurgent initial public-offering market.
This has left developers with a problem — mounting piles of unsold property inventory and rising debt loads. Policy makers face a challenge to ensure China is not heading into a new period of sliding prices and a spiral of debt deflation.
The property sector directly accounts for 15% of growth in gross domestic product, and significantly more if raw materials and related refurbishment demand is included. Property is estimated to be collateral for around half of all banks’ lending, according to estimates by Nomura. The other worrying linkage that could make any property unwind uniquely painful is that local governments rely heavily on land-sale income for revenues.
It is expected banks will stand by systematically important large developers. Yet this still leaves a question mark over the many thousands of smaller, cash-strapped developers who have few financing options.
Therein lies the bind. Despite assorted measures to support property, by continuing to defend its currency peg, China is tightening liquidity on a debt-laden property industry.
To avoid a “new normal” of a debt deflation property spiral Beijing may eventually be forced to join other central banks with aggressive quantitative easing. But to save property this most likely means sacrificing the yuan.”
But I’m sure every single one of them deserved it:
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/american-cops-killed-people-month-march-uk-entire-20th-century/
See my above analysis of the Drudge Report, and note that I neglected to mention badge licking and uniform fetishism as a component of their editorial policy
Uniform fetishism was really popular in Germany in the 1930’s too
California deputies hard at work
Yep, our finest!
The two things bothering me today…..
-The soccer mommy who bashed the door in on my new car, leaving a $1000 dent. (The people in Johnson County, Kansas believe they are just a little bit “better” than the rest of the wretched refuse living in Kansas)
Had the car for a year and a half before moving, didn’t get a scratch. Fifteen months in Johnson County have produced a busted window and torn up “A” pillar, and now an 8 inch long dent in the drivers door.
- Jon Stewart went on last night (as do many East/West coasters), ranting about how much more Federal Spending Kansas (and other Flyover states) get back, vs. what they pay in.
Not defending Kansas, but this argument is BS.
How much of that spending is Department of Defense, because it makes more sense to put the Army/Air Force out here in BFE, than it does in the NYC/LA metro? How much of it is spending on national infrastructure (like the en-route ATC system) or highways (I-70 exists primarily to give Colorado residents a cheaper way to go “east” than flying).
With the exception of a few King Airs and trainers, none of the military aircraft currently in production are built, or have major sub assembly work done in Kansas.
I’m still trying to figure out why Californians get paid twice as much as we get here in Kansas for doing the same job. As effed up as the weather and cultural amenities are around here, we should be getting “hazardous duty” pay.
How much of that spending is Department of Defense, because it makes more sense to put the Army/Air Force out here in BFE, than it does in the NYC/LA metro? How much of it is spending on national infrastructure (like the en-route ATC system) or highways (I-70 exists primarily to give Colorado residents a cheaper way to go “east” than flying).
Ding ding ding. Somebody gets it what I’ve been saying for ages. The whole argument is bogus.
Another twist to this story - who gets the majority share of free money created out of thin air? Manhattan in KS or NY? San Francisco or Jackson, MS?
I don’t know where that $1.29 number comes from, but I think most people assume it’s because of farm and ethanol subsidies, and for a state that elects so many small government types, their silence on the subject speaks volumes.
Not much corn grown in Kansas, not enough rainfall. The corn that is grown usually ends up as cattle feed, not ethanol.
Agricultural subsidies started out as a way to smooth out the boom/bust nature of farming. (bad weather, no crop to sells = foreclosure. Good weather = excess production = bottom falls out of prices)
Of course, this was back when the socialists in government thought that having stable markets benefitted everyone, especially farmers and consumers.
this was back when the socialists in government thought that having stable markets benefited everyone
It’s “Socialism” when policies benefit small-farms and consumers.
It’s “getting government out of the way” when policies only benefit huge corporations and billionaires.
people in Johnson County, Kansas believe they are just a little bit “better”
I think the only place that I’d live in JoCo would be in the more rural areas aiming towards Lawrence. I lived in JoCo when I was about 12 and anything past about 87th was “the country”.
Nowadays a lot of JoCo peeps do think they’re better than others-especially others from the Dot.
When Dimon zigs you should zag…
http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/09/news/jp-morgan-dimon-next-crisis/
“…He also notes that during a crisis many people tap lines of credit to have cash on hand just in case.”
No Jame those of us who think for ourselves have a supply of cash on hand to avoid having to “tap” anything ill-liquid.
“Of course, Dimon has some advice for regulators on how they could improve the situation.
“He says they could allow banks to provide liquidity cash on a “graduated basis” and accept more forms of collateral.”
“… accept more forms of collateral.”
Such as … body parts! Accept marketable body parts as collateral!
I like it.
(psssst … or maybe sweet-looking teen-aged daughters)
(or, if you like, sweet-looking teen-aged sons)
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Kneecaps? Or perhaps a pound of flesh?
Stay out of dimon’s traps and you can keep your “transferred wealth” cash.
How long before Blackstone implodes?
Ummmm……three, two, one……crickets!!!
Not until a Volker type runs the fed. The axis of evil (spam, berna & yelling) will do whatever it takes to continue to fraud.
Actually the axis of evil is the fed and the feds. They will keep the fraud going.
The beast is being starved and the fraud at alarming levels.
Is it safe to say the oil glut is behind us, and prices can only go up from here?
101
151
Oil Markets
Oil Prices Tumble as Supplies Hit New Record
U.S. inventory data show largest one-week build in crude supplies since 2001
By Nicole Friedman
Updated April 8, 2015 8:20 p.m. ET
The most volatile oil market in three years was hit with another sharp swing on Wednesday, as a huge buildup in crude supplies sent U.S. prices to their biggest loss in two months.
Crude oil for May delivery slid 6.6%, a day after rising 3.5% to set a high for the year.
Prices have moved more than 2% up or down on 42 trading days this year, more than the total number of such moves in any of the past three years.
Wednesday slide was triggered by a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing the nation’s crude stockpiles soared to a new record last week, posting the biggest increase in 14 years as oil production rose.
…
Attribution: wsj dot com
CraterRage Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/Qn6bO3
Wow, now that’s a step up in intensity.
Baltic sea freight index falls on muted vessel activity
in Dry Bulk Market 09/04/2015
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell on Wednesday due to muted vessel activity.
The index, which factors in the average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels, dropped three points, or 0.51 percent, to 580 points.
…
Is it safe to assume that bear markets are a thing of the past on Wall Street?
The money in my bank says no.
Not one post about black on white crime, global warming, radical feminists, Obama’s currency manipulation, Obama’s golf partners, or how smart the Chinese government is. Am I on the right blog?
All of what you described is available on the websites that I detailed above
“First-time buyers are a powerful force in America’s consumer economy. But they’re being sidelined by monetary policies designed to inflate asset prices – the “wealth effect” – to enrich a relatively small number of people. And in the process, these policies are stifling real demand.
The Fed is clueless how to unscramble its omelet. It fears “outsized market reaction” to even the smallest moves. Other central banks keep adding to the omelet. Absurdity reigns.”
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/04/10/first-time-homebuyers-impact-on-economy-plunging-homeownership-rates/
This from Jesse’s Cafe Amercain…..”The heart of the problem is that because of the credibility trap, we have never had a proper public discussion on what went wrong with the policies of the US. The apathy of the people enables this.”
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2015/04/moving-beyond-corporatism-and-corruption.html
It’s amazing how many articles there are about how the Fed is fueling bubbles, but they’re always on the opinion page or economic websites. It’s not the kind of story newspapers like to put on the front page. The information is there if you’re willing to look for it. Unfortunately, all the people who will soon be signing mortgages probably don’t read this blog.
…or it’s true that we’re a bunch of shrieking delusional moonbats.
One must never completely discount that possibility.
More on Rummy’s win in Chicago ILLANNOY - a long read but worth the time.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/04/chicago-mayoral-race-results-rahm-tell-crooked-answer-yes-true-period.html
The worst-kept secret in the history of politics is out of the bag.
George Washington was not born a citizen of the United States?
The uninsured rate inn Texas is 30 percent
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/238440-study-finds-texas-and-florida-lag-in-health-coverage
A state of broke and sick @ss loosers, LOLZ
Jesus is their insurance plan.
I just got back from my walk on the beach in Copacabana. Out of hundreds of apartments I saw one “for-rent” and five “for sale” signs. There has never been much turn-over in the Zona-Sul here.
I’ve read that prices here “are rising less than inflation” or that they are dropping a little.
u should buy a couple homes and rent them out.
u should buy a couple homes and rent them out.
LOL. No thank you.
#1. It does not pencil out in Zona Sul, Rio. Prices are too high.
#2. I am not inclined to be a landlord.
#4. I’m hearing Brazil and the whole world is going to collapse any day now, so if everything collapses, I want to have some cash in worthless currencies just in case I need them. I like to hedge my bets - to be safe. (And #3 is a secret.)
do most people in brazil own their houses or rent? whats the typical rent / month? what are typical incomes?
GOAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Staggering from alley to alley is a walk on the beach? You injected some powerful stuff Lola.
ft dot com
On Wall Street
April 10, 2015 9:10 am
QE may not have been worth the costs
Henny Sender
Growth remains weak despite zero rates and asset purchases
A pedestrian walks past the Wall Street street sign in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2011. U.S. stocks were little changed, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to an almost four year high, as a better-than-estimated consumer confidence report offset disappointing home and durable goods orders data. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg
One of the odd things about unconventional monetary policies is the absence of a vigorous debate about the costs of these experiments, whether in the US, in Japan or now in Europe.
Instead, almost all the chatter revolves around the timing and market consequences of possible exits. Indeed, it is almost as if these initiatives had little downside, at least so far. Even when the limits of these policies become evident, the solution appears more of the same rather than calls for a different approach.
A new report from Swiss Re is changing that. The report calculates that US savers alone have lost $470bn in interest rate income — and that is net of lower debt costs. Central bank policies involve “a whole host of unintended consequences; asset price bubbles, an impaired credit intermediation process and increasing economic inequality are just a few,” the report warns.
The Swiss Re report comes at a time of rising concern among both insurers and managers of public pension funds that the benefits they promise to savers and retirees will be cut as a result of these policies. That is because they hold a significant part of their assets in fixed-income securities to match their long-term liabilities. Forgone yield income for insurers on both sides of the Atlantic could total $400bn, Swiss Re adds. Especially problematical are the guarantee products insurers offer, where rates on offer are still way above European government bond yields.
Meanwhile the $9tn increase in households’ stock market wealth since 2008 “has predominantly benefited society’s wealthiest”, it adds. “Whether the increase in wealth has led to the so-called ‘wealth effect’ (ie impact on actual consumption) is questionable. There is no clear evidence of equity-related gains having translated into additional consumption and thus no real economic growth.” In other words, with wage gains still far short of expectation, and investment income falling, there is little hope that demand from the average household can recover any time soon.
…