April 21, 2015

Selling For Profit, Selling Out Of Necessity

New Kerala reports on India. “Affordable, need-based housing is fast shrinking in Goa even as the state is being positioned as a luxury destination for the rich and an ‘ideal’ market for investment-oriented second homes. Over the last few years, a steady stream of luxury housing projects, niche gated residencies and mega housing complexes have emerged across the Goan countryside, even as most of the units in their upmarket tenements are vacant most of the year. A 2011 official census revealed that a quarter of the 500,000-odd registered homes in Goa are vacant and this trend is disturbing as far as creating the space for need-based housing is concerned, said former chairman of Indian Institute of Architects (Goa) Tulio de Souza.”

“‘A lot of housing stock that is being created in Goa is either as second homes to citizens and people from all over the country and the other is the speculative housing,’ said de Souza.”

Al-Monitor on Iran. “Due to a growing demand and a tendency to prefer investments in tangible assets, property prices offered a guaranteed profit in Iran until 2012 with very few exceptions of short-term stagnation. Nonetheless, since the summer of 2013, an unprecedented real decline in housing prices has been experienced. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, housing prices have dropped by 14.3% in the 12 months prior to March 20. While the younger generation of Iran’s urban population is looking for smaller housing units, institutional investors have been producing larger apartments that only attract a limited number of customers. In fact, there are 1.6 million empty housing units in Tehran waiting to be sold or rented.”

The Malay Mail. “Foreign investment in Iskandar’s anticipated economic boom and population growth has been punctured by a very different reality. ‘There is a misconception of the demand market here… there is a clear mismatch between supply and demand,’ Johor Baru MP Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad told Malay Mail Online. ‘While there is an oversupply of premium properties, the demand however is for medium and low cost ones owing to peoples incomes. Foreign developers think there is a demand for their properties and that is not happening. This is what’s happening and they have to live with it. If they are willing to take the risk then we can’t stop them.’”

Bloomberg on Australia. “Australia is experiencing a two-speed housing market: while prices in Sydney have surged to records, the end of the mining boom is depressing home values in commodity-rich regions where prices once rivaled those in New York and London. Houses in Blackwater sold for a median price of A$450,000 in 2012. That hit A$193,000 last year, a 57 percent drop, the data show. About 200 houses in the town were listed for sale over the last 12 months, and just 12 sold, according to an April 16 report from Propell National Valuers, a real estate consultant.”

“‘We had a massive boom in 2011 and 2012, with investors from all over Australia going to seminars and shown fairly rosy projections for prices,’ said Clinton Adams, founder of C.D. Adams Real Estate. ‘For a period of time that all came true, but when the prices fall and they’re needing to put money in, they say ‘Let’s just take a hit and get rid of it.’”

Reuters on China. “China’s drumroll of policy support for its flagging housing market has met an unlikely foe: banks. Beijing has tried to revive a flagging housing market as it looks to arrest an economic slowdown, but banks are increasingly worried about bad debts and are not passing on policy steps like interest rate cuts and lower downpayment requirements to home buyers. ‘It’s difficult because our margins are already squeezed, there isn’t much differentiation in the market, so our focus is on how much our capital costs are,’ said a banker at a top-10 Chinese lender, explaining why his bank is reluctant to lend.”

“One problem has been over-supply. At end-March, China had 649.98 million square meters of real estate to sell, an increase of 10.76 million square meters from February, and housing investment fell to its lowest since 2009. Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities dropped 6.1 percent last month from a year ago, the seventh consecutive monthly fall.”

The Regina Leader Post in Canada. “The average price for a detached bungalow fell more than five per cent in the last 12 months in Regina, according to Royal LePage. The average price for single-family homes in Regina deteriorated in the first quarter, with detached bungalows dropping 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $306,500 and standard two-storey homes declining 1.8 per cent to $349,500. ‘Last year ended with an abundance of supply in the market, and the first quarter of 2015 has finished the same way,’ said Mike Duggleby, managing partner with Royal LePage Regina Realty, who attributed the softening in prices to the 20-year high in listings.”

KTAR in Arizona. “It’s a perfect storm, eh? Combine low oil prices, the falling Canadian dollar and the rise of Valley real estate prices and you get a lot of our neighbors from the North putting for sale signs in their Arizona yards. Terri Bozok from Edmonton, Alberta owns a second home in Mesa. She has no plans to sell but it’s a different story for many of her Canadian friends who own property here.”

“‘They bought when prices were low and when the Canadian dollar was at par,’ she said. ‘They’ve made their profit and will make even more money when they convert the U.S dollars into Canadian.’”

“One of those friends bought several rental homes during the housing crash and is now getting them ready for sale. While some are selling for profit, others are selling out of necessity. ‘For retired snowbirds, a weaker Canadian dollar makes it much more expensive to spend the winter here,’ Bozok said. ‘Many are on fixed incomes.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 03:27:19

‘Around the same time as China announced its economy had slowed to levels not seen since the GFC, a group of miners east of Geraldton were told they had lost their jobs. The two events were manifestations of the same thing; the realisation that the rampant growth of the Chinese economy was not sustainable and the latest iron age looks to be coming to an end.’

‘French investment bank BNP Paribas noted, on the day Blue Hills closed, the factors behind the unravelling of the iron ore boom have many years to play out. “With China’s multi-year real estate correction in its infancy, pollution a hot button issue and steel inventories at record levels, downward pressure on China’s steel output is structural,” BNP advised its clients.’

“China’s growth post-GFC has been sustained by an unsustainable construction investment boom that has lifted the combined share of real estate and infrastructure investment to a wholly unprecedented 35 per cent of GDP,” BNP noted.’

‘The scale of the building boom has been epic. China’s steel production, at more than 800 million tonnes per annum, matches that of the rest of world combined. Over the past 7 years, it has accounted for 100 per cent of the global growth in steel production.’

‘To clad that steel, it has produced more than double the cement in the past five years than the United States did in the entire twentieth century. “The rout in iron ore prices had been long predicted and can be seen as reflecting a classic ‘cobweb’ model of supply and demand dynamics with over-optimistic forecasts for future demand spurring large increases in supply which then kick in as demand begins to normalise,” BNP added.’

‘BNP estimates that value of unfinished real estate projects - at market prices - equates to a “mind boggling” 75 per cent of GDP.’

“The deflationary dynamics and the unprecedented weight of excess supply mean the real estate sector is relatively impervious to stimulus and real estate investment is likely to fall sharply for several years,” the bank warned.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-04-21 05:49:34

“impervious to stimulus…”

Sounds like the boundary of debt induced prosperity is well behind. The whole world loved the mania while it lasted.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-04-21 06:14:23

‘BNP estimates that value of unfinished real estate projects - at market prices - equates to a “mind boggling” 75 per cent of GDP.’

That’s gonna hurt.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-04-21 06:48:46

That’s adding 10s of millions housing units to the already existing (empty, excess) units completed. Total excess in a few years (if built to completion) around 150 million housing units. Staggering.

If they have a real depression in China, the Fang nu shadow inventory is going to add to this overhang.

Freedom is just a 1,000 mile walk home.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-04-21 13:25:58

Bringing this back to real estate state-side, will this result in a decrease in the Chinese Asset Locusts buying up property on the eastern shores of the Pacific?

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-04-21 12:23:21

Next year it’ll be around 25%, at current prices.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 03:30:49

‘Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. captivated Wall Street by minting fortunes from troubled real estate in China. Now the developer is in trouble itself — and the question is how far the pain will spread.’

‘On Monday, the news came that many had been dreading for months: The company, caught up in an anti-corruption probe, is buckling under its debts as a slumping real estate market weighs on the entire Chinese economy. After missing $52 million in interest payments, Kaisa, once a stock market darling, now confronts an uncertain future.’

‘It’s a remarkable comedown for a company that burst onto the scene in 2007 as billions poured into Chinese real estate. Its troubles, long in coming, have set investors on edge and have many asking if Kaisa is a one-off or the start of something worse. Just last week, Standard & Poor’s warned that “more defaults cannot be ruled out,” saying it’s concerned profitability in the Chinese property sector is faltering.’

“More than one big developer is going to go under,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan who examines legal issues in corporate and sovereign debt restructuring efforts. “Busts follow booms. There’s no reason for it to be any different in China.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 05:19:40

‘Bonds of troubled Chinese developer Kaisa Group traded down on Tuesday in volatile trade after a landmark default on its coupon payment. Overnight, the borrower said it had failed to pay a coupon on its bonds due 2017 and 2018 within the grace period for the payment, becoming the first Chinese developer to default on its dollar bonds.’

‘The sector accounts for some 15 percent of China’s GDP and was the source of 61 percent of high-yield bonds issued by Asian companies, excluding Japan and Australia, in the U.S. dollar market in 2014, according to Thomson Reuters data.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-04-21 05:56:24

“15 percent of China’s GDP…”

Maybe it is splitting hairs, but BNP thinks it is 35%. I’d take the miner’s number over the CCP press releases.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-04-21 12:34:56

So much of the attraction of China was due to its opacity, size, and sheer foreign-ness, which allowed any number of favorable forecasts to seem plausible. In this country, “minting fortunes from troubled real estate” is a pitch from a huckster.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-04-21 04:06:24

Kirkland, WA List Prices Crater 13%; Inventory Explodes 95%


Remember…..If you have to borrow money for 15 or 30 years to buy a depreciating asset, you can’t ‘afford’ it nor is it affordable.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 05:22:39

‘In a survey of housing costs around the world, the Economist magazine says Canada’s housing prices are 35 per cent overvalued when compared to Canadian incomes. Against the level of Canadian rents, housing prices come in 89 per cent overvalued, according to the Economist housing index.’

‘In calling Canadian house prices out of kilter, the Economist joins voices such as Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, ratings agency Fitch and even the International Monetary Fund, in pointing out that the rise of house values is out of sync with Canadian incomes.’

‘Of the 26 markets surveyed, the magazine found seven where housing prices are more than 25 per cent overvalued. Belgium leads the pack, with house prices 50 per cent overvalued relative to income. But also highlighted are Australia, France, Britain and Sweden.’

‘The Economist puts the blame on “ultra-loose” monetary policy. Mortgage rates are at historic lows around the world.’

‘Cheap borrowing has encouraged consumers to jump in and buy, driving demand and pushing prices higher. The result is a bubble, as housing prices rapidly outpace both consumer incomes and rental costs.’

Comment by In Colorado
2015-04-21 09:53:38

Cheap borrowing has encouraged consumers to jump in and buy

Indeed. Aren’t mortgage rates as low as 1.5% in some countries? That’s $15,000 annual interest on a million dollar loan.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 05:49:30

‘There are about 80,900 units of approved high-rise residences in Iskandar. Latest statistics from Malaysia’s National Property Information Centre showed that as of the fourth quarter of last year, there were 142,567 homes under construction in the state of Johor, with another 193,271 units planned — among the highest in all of Malaysia.’

‘The aggressive land-banking activities by Chinese developers such as Country Garden and Guangzhou R&F Properties could worsen the glut and lead to price wars in the high-rise mixed-development segment, the Maybank report said.’

‘Dr Boo Cheng Hau, Johor opposition leader and Skudai assemblyman, noted that these residential projects were launched without sufficient supporting services or industries in place to make them viable in the near term.’

‘The Democratic Action Party (DAP) MP said the region was not yet able to accommodate a surge in tourism or fulfil the needs of foreign investors seeking to take advantage of Malaysia’s second-home schemes.’

“There will be a sustainable demand for properties here, but not in the near future. It will take another five to 10 years to see a boom in sectors such as manufacturing, services and so on, (and) a more steady increase in demand for properties,” Dr Boo said in an earlier email interview.’

‘Mr Liew Chin Tong, DAP’s Kluang MP, stressed that the rapid pace of property development in Iskandar had no real legs on which to stand, a situation that is not helped by the nationwide slowdown in the property market.’

“Johor is a case of killing the golden goose too fast, too greedily. The property market is not sustained by a genuine working population with income to support their investments, while borrowing rates are surging, waiting for the bubble to burst,” Mr Liew said when contacted.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 05:55:16

‘The number of houses for sale in Saskatoon has reached a record number - about 1,850 units - and prices remain relatively flat. Standard two-storey homes and detached bungalow prices remained relatively flat, increasing 0.6 per cent year over year to $396,000 and 0.5 per cent to 365,750, respectively. Meanwhile, standard condominium prices increased by 4.5 per cent to $277,000 over the same period.’

“This is the first time since I have been in the business (21 years) we’ve been at 1,850 homes,” said Norm Fisher, broker and owner of Royal LePage Vidorra. “(Sellers) have to be looking after all of the details,” Fisher said. “You have to be attentive to details and be thoughtful in your pricing strategy. If you are in one of these newer areas like Stonebridge or Willowgrove, where there is a ton of inventory, you almost have to be slightly out of line on the low side to be noticed by buyers.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 06:02:04

‘Re-sale listing inventory is at a 10-year high for this time of year in Ottawa. It’s currently running at 34% higher than the five-year average for residential properties and 58% higher for condos.’

‘Stittsville is no exception. We currently have almost a full year’s estimated sales already listed at $500,000+ with the heaviest listing months to come in April, May and June.’

‘Stittsville is experiencing significant competition for available buyers in a market favouring buyers. While an extended frigid winter did not help, the combination of excess listing inventory and tremendous competition from new home builders have kept the re-sale market in check for the first quarter of the year.’

‘Stittsville and Kanata are overflowing with new builder developments and their bright and shiny sales centres. Business is pretty challenging for builders also right now and they are offering compelling buyer bonuses and incentives. These offerings compete with resale homes and also the builders have the advantage of designer showroom/model homes with the latest features and trends highlighted. Plus these models have never been lived in, unlike resale listings which can often show their age.’

‘Sellers, especially those priced above $500,000 will want to be very careful with their list pricing strategy and have contingency plans for taking action should their property not sell in the first 30-45 days.’

Comment by redmondjp
2015-04-21 13:29:52

Stittsville . . .

One errant, unfortunate letter away from their future outlook.

Is there a Stitts Creek nearby as well?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 05:58:35

‘Bayut.com’s report said cooling measures continued to weigh on prices and transactional activity, bringing stability to the realty sector in Dubai and boosting investors’ interest in the region. The property portal said the completion and handover of 25,000 residential units in 2015 are expected to lower the rental increases further and benefit tenants.’

‘Referring to Dubai Land Department data, the report further said that the number of transactions dropped by 37.61 per cent during the January-March quarter compared to the October-December period of 2014.’

‘The prices of one-bedroom apartments fell 2.77 per cent on a year-on-year basis and settled on an average price of Dh1,523,300. Four-bedroom apartments saw a very significant drop in prices, with a total year-on-year decline of 12.60 per cent during the quarter.’

“Collectively, apartment prices in Dubai decreased by 5.76 per cent on average in this year’s first quarter compared with same period last year chiefly due to dwindling demand and decreasing prices for larger [four and four+beds] apartments in the emirate,” the report said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 06:09:54

‘More high-end Toronto real estate going the auction route. Owners of luxury homes are trying auctions rather than just sticking to MLS. But sometimes those winning bids fall through in the closing.’

‘Ritchies Auctioneers, which has done a number of high-end auctions, has also had its share of closing problems, but it remains determined to grow the real estate arm of its business in Canada.’

‘Its biggest success to date has been the sale of a 9,000-square-foot modernist property in Mississauga’s Doulton Estates last April. It sold at auction for $4 million, some $1.25 million less than the owner paid in 2010, according to sales records.’

‘Also for sale at that auction was the so-called “Saxony Manor,” on the market again after a bidder failed to close on an offer made at an auction in January, 2014. The house later sold for less than it cost to build.’

“The majority of our properties are not in a distressed situation but owners are choosing to sell through us because they have a unique, difficult-to-value asset and they’d like to close it on their (usually short) time frame,” says Laura Brady, president of Concierge.’

‘Once listed on MLS for $23 million, the mansion at 40 Park Lane Circle — more than 21,000 square feet — drew five serious bids at auction on November 26, 2013, before selling, according to sales records, for a relatively bargain-basement price of $13.4 million.’

“The (2013) auction process was great. It was successful. The closing is where it fell apart, but I can’t get into that because it’s an ongoing matter,” says Toronto realtor Barry Cohen, a veteran at selling luxury real estate through traditional means but a relative newcomer to auctioning high-end properties.’

‘75 Highland Crescent. Originally listed on MLS for $23.9 million in 2011, now down to $13.95 million.’

‘Trump International Hotel & Tower, 12th-floor suite. Size: 950 square feet, corner unit in hotel-condo, one bedroom, two bathrooms.’

‘Price: Was listed on MLS pre-auction for about $1 million. The lowdown: This sale was a success, says Ritchies Auctioneers, even though the auction house claims hotel executives, quietly fearful a bargain-basement price would devalue other units up for sale in the troubled tower, forced them to move the auction off-site, which affected attendance. There were several offers, most after the auction was over. The highest was $800,000 — about half the list price of similar units. It appears a deal was never finalized.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 06:29:09

‘China’s two largest train makers CSR Corp. and China CNR have rallied 450% in Shanghai and 165% in Hong Kong this year and are now trading at 70 times and 30 times forward earnings respectively.’

“They are already in a bubble,” said Citi Research‘s Paul Gong, Eric Lau and Sherry He, who downgraded the two stocks to Sell today.’

‘The combined market caps of CSR and CNR, over $220 billion, are now roughly equal to the combined market cap of Boeing and Airbus. However, the train makers’ businesses lagged. Last year, Boeing and Airbuss generated 4.4 times as much revenue, and 4.6 times as much profit.’

‘CSR and CNR have become expensive compared to their own past. “In the bubble of early 2011″, immediately before the then railway minister Liu Zhijun was arrested for corruption investigation, the whole sector was trading at only 25 times. Now, we are talking about 30 times in Hong Kong and 70 times in Shanghai.’

“For the current market cap to be justified, the rest of the world probably needs to build highspeed rail at the same pace as China. Despite global competitiveness and the export outlook being enhanced by “one-belt, one-road” (OBOR), we find it hard to justify such sky-high valuations of CSR/CNR,” the analysts wrote.’

‘This morning, the railway names took a break. CSR Corp. retreated 12.3%, CNR fell 12%, railway construction firm China Rail Group (390.Hong Kong) retreated 8.4%, China Rail Construction Corp. (1186.Hong Kong) fell 6%, China Communications Construction Corp. (1800.Hong Kong) was down 5%.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 06:35:52

‘A boom in China’s stock markets caused confusion on the Shanghai bourse on Monday, when it grew too big for its own computer software to handle.’

‘Trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange totaled 1.15 trillion yuan ($185 billion) — the first time it has exceeded the one-trillion mark. However the exchange’s computers were not able to display the figure fully, since its computer software simply did not have enough zeros, according to officials.’

‘A massive investment rush this year has sent China’s markets soaring to seven-year highs. Last month, turnover on both the country’s main exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, was larger than that of the New York Stock Exchange, according to Reuters.’

‘The SSE said in a statement that its software was “not designed to report numbers that high,” according to the Shanghai Daily. It said the exchange’s current software package, which is more than 10 years old, was being “gradually replaced.”

‘The Shanghai stock market has almost doubled in value over the last six months, and recently rose above the 4,000 mark for the first time in seven years. Last week alone it rose by more than 6 percent. Expectations of fiscal easing to boost China’s slowing economic growth have contributed to the boom, while the slowdown in China’s real estate market over the past two years has made investors eager to find other avenues.’

“People in China don’t have many other places to invest their money,” Mike Lu, a retail investor in Shanghai, told International Business Times. “The housing market is so flat, so people are looking at the stock market again — and they’re also looking at Hong Kong, where values are lower.”

“They opened the floodgates by allowing margin trading, allowing punters to leverage up two or three times, now they’re allowing them to open so many accounts,” Andy Xie, former chief economist for Asia at Morgan Stanley, told IBTimes. “It could stoke up a bubble — and if there’s a crash then people will lose their money and won’t be able to consume.”

‘China’s official Xinhua news agency last week noted the stock market crash of 2007-2008, when the Shanghai exchange plunged from over 6,000 points to just 1,665. It said that what it described as the recent “madness” on the country’s stock exchanges was “a worry” — particularly since China’s GDP growth fell from 7.3 percent in the last quarter of 2014 to 7 percent in the first quarter of this year.’

‘Last weekend, authorities did announce a ban on over-the-counter margin trading — when brokerages lend investors money to buy shares. Officials also called on retail investors to be cautious in their investments.’

Comment by snake charmer
2015-04-21 12:48:35

Yes, let’s boost economic growth by letting uneducated peasants and factory workers buy stocks on margin. This is the modern-day equivalent of a Hieronymus Bosch painting, just totally amoral and out of control.

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-04-21 06:34:19

its really amazing going into peoples apartments cat sitting today and see what they value..because everything is small almost no one has a big bookcase or multiple ones, or records or cd’s or a big screen tube tv….but they do spend money on luxury couches, Dux beds and not just futons…

——–While the younger generation of Iran’s urban population is looking for smaller housing units, institutional investors have been producing larger apartments that only attract a limited number of customers

Comment by OliverGarchy
2015-04-21 06:36:58

Those Canadian fools better start cutting prices to sell those houses if they want it to happen anytime soon. There are about 45 days left in the selling season until it is hotter than heck to go out looking at houses. Then until about mid-October too too hot. And a lot can happen in price from June to October. I’m seeing some price reductions more and more but no panic yet. 45 days, the clock is ticking.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 06:55:04

So much for being in it for the rent.

The builders in the Phoenix area are undercutting the re-sale market. But don’t worry Albertan’s. Just tell everyone your from Canada and need the money because your economy is going down the tubes and I’m sure the locals will be happy to fund the next several years of your driving around aimlessly.

Comment by scdave
2015-04-21 08:02:44

Just tell everyone your from Canada and need the money ??

What happens when a large amount of inventory is built over decades to accommodate a specific group of people (2nd home buyers/Snow birds) and the demographic shifts over time provide less & less demand for this particular product in each subsequent year ??

Comment by brother_jimmy
2015-04-21 10:48:48

Phoenix, AZ is what happens.

2015 might be the best year for valley housing in the next 10 years. Overbuilt and overpriced.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-04-21 12:30:41

“The builders in the Phoenix area are undercutting the re-sale market.”

There’s alot of freeboard for that to happen. Even in areas that are considered low cost.

A debtor can’t compete and never could.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-04-21 09:28:10

“One of those friends bought several rental homes during the housing crash and is now getting them ready for sale. While some are selling for profit, others are selling out of necessity. ‘For retired snowbirds, a weaker Canadian dollar makes it much more expensive to spend the winter here,’ Bozok said. ‘Many are on fixed incomes.’”

Why is it so sacrosanct that retirees are “on fixed incomes”? No one cares when working stiffs don’t get raises. And if retirees are “on fixed incomes” and need more money they can always get a P/T job, especially since they have so much time on their hands.

Comment by taxpers
2015-04-21 09:39:58

Gov worker in your county are getting raise
Every yr

Comment by In Colorado
2015-04-21 10:02:36

Actually, there have been freezes where I live.

Also, our current city council has voted to repeal sales taxes on groceries; which brings in $6,000,000 a year (in a city of 70K people). The city workers I know are not only worried about not getting a raise, they’re worried about losing their jobs. There is even talk of closing the library and the rec center, which are very popular services in our little burg. The city council expects a “non-profit” to appear out of nowhere and take over the library and rec center. I seriously doubt that will happen.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-04-21 09:53:57

Fixed doesn’t mean the same thing when it’s fixed to something that is moving all over the place. They certainly had enough leeway to become real estate “investors”. They had no idea they were becoming currency speculators, which made them commodity speculators.

Comment by brother_jimmy
2015-04-21 10:50:44

They were always speculators. Investing requires knowledge of all the variables going into a decision, not just one or two (price, location seem to be the two common ones).

Comment by rj chicago
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-04-21 11:44:44

So R.J. do you think it will be this year or next year when the sh#t hits the fan for Chicago’s finances?

Comment by rj chicago
2015-04-21 12:00:24

I am thinking if Gov. Rauner cannot get some simple pension reforms done - then I give it one to two years and done. The three rating agencies have all threatened openly to the public here via the finance press that if reforms are not completed they will be downgrading Chicago debt again. The City bond rating as I write this is only two clicks above junk - and we know what happened to Detroit, Stockton and other lost sheep.
The City is technically bankrupt already -the problem is getting the folks to understand that perception is now reality. Pity the poor beggar who has no means of getting out of the hull of the sinking ship.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-04-21 14:54:23

ABQ D - I posted this on Bits buckets as well - this is telling and a foreshadowing of where Chicago ILLANNOY is headed. Tax bills are being issued this week around here - could get real ugly real quick.


Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-04-21 12:24:06

House prices in AZ need to drop. Go home, Canadian equity locusts. Go home.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-04-21 13:38:49

Manhattan Apts. - more expensive - who woulda thunk that…..


Comment by Ben Jones
2015-04-21 15:47:04

‘Since 2013, warehouses have been a preferred vehicle for Chinese property investors, following a downturn in the country’s housing and commercial property segment. The lack of land for such warehouses – an unpopular zoning choice for local governments because they yield less tax revenue — as well as a boom in e-commerce had made logistics property a popular way to park money.’

‘But as history shows with real estate trends in China, when everyone wants a piece of what’s hot, a supply glut often ensues.’

“It used to be a market that was undersupplied. Now we’re seeing in some market pockets, oversupply,” said Philip Pearce, Goodman Group ’s managing director for greater China.’

“He said that north China’s Tianjin and Southwest China’s Chengdu are showing signs of a glut. “While we see strong demand in some markets, we see supply running ahead of demand. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. The question is, would these people stay in the market?” said Mr. Pearce.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-04-21 17:31:52

Warehouses were probably a lot more useful when hoarding commodities (or pretending to hoard them) was profitable.

Comment by SuzyK
2015-04-21 20:48:22

Don’t post often..more of lurker…. but man this feels like 2005 all over again

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-04-21 22:04:15

this feels like 2005
I think you’re right, but I hope things move along even faster than they did then. At the rate my rental’s estimate is rising, the likelihood that my LL will to ask us to buy it at some ridiculous price (or go) is rising, too.

In any case, I feel a bit dopey. It’s risen from the $150K he wanted in 2012 ($75 sq. ft., not great old house, $40K over most estimates at the time, so I declined) to $200-250K now.

OTOH, it’s an iffy area. Another ersatz car repair shop has sprung up in a house around the corner. The other one is directly across the street - so this may not be an area in which we want to stay.

Renter freedom is great, but can also be a little nerve wracking.

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