Bits Bucket for April 28, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds, like a monkey in a tropical forest” — Kim Jong Un
“If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon” — President Barack Hussein Obama
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-police-student-violence-20150427-story.html#page=1
without a doubt the most disgraceful statement made by any president ever…especially when he knew trayvon should have bee in jail that night or at his moms house with an ankle bracelet doing his homework for school the next day.
Yes, the riots are being manipulated, you can pin this one directly on Barack Obama, Eric Holder, Loratta Lynch, Al Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson:
http://www.infowars.com/are-the-baltimore-riots-being-manipulated/
Black Knight: Home Prices See Biggest Gain Since June
Black Knight Financial Services, Jacksonville, Fla., said U.S. home prices rose by 0.7 percent in February, the largest gain in national home prices since last June, and rose by 4.6 percent year over year.
Meanwhile on planet earth;
Santa Clara, CA Sale Prices Crater Plummet 10% As Sellers Slash Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/santa-clara-ca/home-values/
Crater Plummet
You’re definitely out of this world…..I prefer real analytics….or even someone in Santa Clara to give you a clue! HA.
Your beef is with the data Jingle_Fraud. Deal with it.
Intel report warns gang attacks on white cops could spread nationally:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/27/baltimore-riots-gang-attacks-white-police-officers/
The long hot summer is finally here
Salon dot com article legitimizes Obama’s sons going feral in Baltimore:
http://www.salon.com/2015/04/28/baltimores_violent_protesters_are_right_smashing_police_cars_is_a_legitimate_political_strategy/
“I can’t breath!!” - Leveraged L.A. homeowner who bought in 2014 with a Lexus lease and 3 kids in private ed.
Corporate profits at all time highs. DOW all time highs. Unemployment down to 5.5% from almost 8%.
Why do I care what the retard in N. Korea says?
Rand Paul 2016. NO MORE AID TO ISRAEL!
By how much is China’s official Q1.2015 7% growth rate overstated?
Noone save AlbqDan believes the 7% number.
The Outlook
China’s True Growth Is a Mystery; Economists Weigh the Clues
Official first-quarter GDP growth of 7% is overstated, experts agree, but pinning down the real number is a head-scratcher
A woman working at a textile factory in Hebei province this month.
Photo: Zhu Xudong/Xinhua/Zuma Press
By Mark Magnier
Updated April 26, 2015 7:36 p.m. ET
When China released its tabulation of first-quarter growth earlier this month, the 7% figure—the worst in six years—stirred fears of a deepening slowdown.
It also raised fresh doubt about the trustworthiness of China’s own statistics.
“Growth Likely Overstated,” said a Citibank report, concluding that actual quarterly growth could be below 6% year to year, depending on the factors weighed. Other research firms put their numbers far lower, with Capital Economics pegging the quarter at 4.9%, the Conference Board’s China Center at 4% and Lombard Street Research at 3.8%.
Efforts to discern China’s actual growth rate have kept economists pinned to their calculators for years, and for good reason.
For one, the figures are suspiciously smooth, with none of the sharp gyrations seen in the U.S. or other economies. The methodology often appears inconsistent or contradictory. Also, no one knows how China accounts for inflation when tabulating its gross domestic product.
Then there are the many ways China’s GDP figures appear to clash with other data points considered more difficult to manipulate. Economists point to the discrepancy between headline GDP growth and industrial production, often seen as a proxy for growth, which grew by 5.6% year to year in March—its lowest level since late 2008.
This came amid weaker recent readings for electricity consumption, investment, industrial profits, manufacturing output and real-estate investment, among others.
…
You can repeat the same story over and over again because I am proving right and you are proving wrong on China but it does not change anything. HSBC actually believes China will grow by 7% this year. The CIA says that China has understated its growth and China is the world’s largest economy.
Yes but China GDP growth has fallen 50% since 2008…. and it’s still falling.
Which would not have happened unless they do report what is happening to growth.
But it happened. China GDP growth fell 50%. And it’s still falling.
Now this is a truth the Chinese government does not want to be widely understood and why it is stockpiling many resources:
http://www.mining.com/china-burning-natural-resources/
HSBC believes China will grow by 7.3%.
HSBC is British…..
Wrong. Historically it is a HK based UK bank.
HSBC? You mean the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation? Shocking they would be bullish Chinese growth.
And let’s have a little instruction on what the CIA was referring to when they suggested China was understating growth. You see, Dan, unlike the dollar or the euro or the yen or the Swiss franc, the yuan is not convertible. Chinese currency stays in China. Whereas you can use dollars to buy anything around the world, your yuan stays only in one place…in China. Over the last few years, the effects of China keeping their inconvertible currency effectively pegged to the dollar, and therefore quite undervalued, did result in an understatement of growth. This was very much the case…in 2013.
But times have changed. The Chinese stock market is going nuts, leading an imbecile like yourself to believe that growth remains robust at 7%. But you see, these stock market gains are the result of the same phenomenon that previously caused the CIA to consider Chinese growth understated. Their currency cannot be converted. It remains in China. So the Chinese people, well known for their 40% savings rate, are forced to put their money to work in China. The property bubble the inconvertible currency previously fueled has burst. Projects the country over are unfinished or uninhabited, hemorrhaging money with the Kaisa Group recently defaulting and myriad other Chinese developers sitting on the brink So investment option one is gone. Chinese depository institutions yield next to nothing because, quite frankly, they have no need for deposits as there are no new projects worth funding. So option two is gone. Commodities are not needed and are more expensive to store than they are worth owning. So their prices have universally collapsed, and option three is gone. So the Chinaman is left with only one option, to put his money in the stock market. So you see, the market goes gangbusters. This is not growth. It is the forebearer of China’s near term demise.
Make your prediction for growth, I am certain mine will be more accurate.
Yea, that is why HSBC is predicting 7.3% growth for China this year and why the signs are already showing that housing prices are at least stabilizing.
I’m with Double Flip on this one. AliBaba anyone? They were supposed to be bigger than ebay and Amazon combined! Yeah? So why’re there so many Chinese sellers still hawking their crap on ebay? Search for a product and watch what happens to the product count when you filter them out. And now comes the reports of Alibaba’s fake sellers and products and rigged numbers. lol. Even their financiers knew what it was all about, so baba had to put their IPO on a US exchange.
Reminds me of what Comey, head of the FBI, said in his 60 Minutes interview. That the Chinese hackers were the most problematic. Not because they were particularly bright or clever, it’s just that there are so many of them.
I occasionally have this China discussion with a buddy and it usually turns pretty heated. He keeps talking about buying crappy products from China for resale, putting lipstick on the pig (in the form of a “Brand” of some sort) to create a phony perception of “value”. I like the guy, so I’ve had to tell him that this is a topic we can no longer discuss if we’re going to retain a friendship. I don’t want to know.
Chuck Fina.
Explain to me how one predicts a figure that, when reported, is as dubious as your intellect?
China is barely growing. It matters not what the National Bureau of Statistics claims. Look at commodity prices. Look at the Baltic Dry Index. Look at the Australian dollar.
Save legal matters, which perhaps you could be of service, spare all readers of this blog your unlearned thoughts. You know nothing on which you talk.
I have said my piece. I kindly ask that you too have said yours.
Sounds like I have rattled a short, I am truly happy. If you feel a need to censor me, I have truly struck a nerve. Now, make your prediction, my other prediction is you will leave this blog (at least under your present name) with your tail between your legs by the end of the year.
“Make your prediction for growth, I am certain mine will be more accurate.”
Only if based on fake numbers.
China is calculating the numbers according to IMF standards and you are just a poor loser since you know I am being vindicated on my predictions for China’s growth for 2014 and 2015. The predictions were based on how China calculates growth just like predictions for the US’s growth are based on how we calculate growth.
I’ll look forward to your future backpedaling on your 7% growth “forecast.”
My prediction is we are in a firmly deflationary global environment and will be for some time, much the result of China’s public-debt-fueled, commodity hoarding, currency manipulating party having fully run it’s course. One of the results will be endless defaults on high yield Chinese corporate notes (tho I admit this is a tiny asset class). Kaisa 2018 notes, for instance, were trading at $1.047 on the dollar in August of last year. They are trading at $0.55 now. All of the foreign denominated Chinese junk debt will go bad. I don’t begin to know nor can I fashion a guess as to what will happen with the yuan-denominated stuff. China is its own beast capable of many unknown machinations. But I am certain their near term future isn’t particularly bright.
As for leaving this blog with my tail between my legs…I don’t visit this site to pick fights. I visit it for information. I will provide insights if I think it would be informative and of interest to others.
I’m just not sure where in your arrested development the need to argue on topics you know very little about became a guiding principle. But the rational part of me is thinking law school.
Great documentary.
http://deathbychina.com/
Oh, and yes, China has a plan to remediate its pollution and poison situation: let the US pay for it.
Chuck Fina.
“I’m just not sure where in your arrested development the need to argue on topics you know very little about became a guiding principle. But the rational part of me is thinking law school.”
+1 on that. Don’t get me wrong, I generally like the Danster, but I do get a bit weary of all the China boosterism.
My prediction is we are in a firmly deflationary global environment and will be for some time, much the result of China’s public-debt-fueled, commodity hoarding, currency manipulating party having fully run it’s course.
And my prediction is deflation is so last year, before the EU easing. China continues to grow at a fast pace albeit considerably slower than before. As far as housing it will be clear within a few months that China had a cyclical correction but the secular trend of hundreds of millions of peasants moving from the rural areas means housing will be a growth engine for years. However, we now have something to work with instead of you just saying I am wrong instead of stating why. So the next six months will be very telling.
“The Chinese stock market is going nuts, leading an imbecile like yourself to believe that growth remains robust at 7%.”
That seems a bit harsh. I’m willing to give AlbqDan the benefit of the doubt that he is merely trying to cleverly deceive others, rather than truly believing his own imbecilic posts.
China’s toast as is the rest of this debt ridden planet.
Will cost - cutting measures by oil companies enable profitable production below $80 / bbl for years to come?
ft dot com
Oil groups have new vigour for cost cuts
Ed Crooks and Christopher Adams in Houston
As oil companies grapple with the consequences of the plunge in the value of crude over the past nine months, some are coming to a paradoxical conclusion: they may be better off when prices are low than when they are high.
This response to a 45 per cent drop in the price of their principal product might sound delusional. Oil has always been a business for optimists, but there are genuine reasons for the leaders of large international oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Total and BP to feel positive about the outlook.
The crude price crash has unleashed a concerted push by oil companies to reconfigure their own organisations, and reset relationships with suppliers and governments.
Above all else, there is a new found vigour to cut companies’ costs. When oil prices were high and rising, being cost-effective became less of a priority than making sure that the oil would keep flowing. Not any more. “The industry was chasing barrels; now it’s chasing efficiency,” says Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of IHS, the research group.
…
The industry was chasing barrels; now it’s chasing efficiency,” says Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of IHS, the research group.
We burn barrels not efficiency and production is falling in this country.
http://bakkenshale.com/drilling-rig-count/bakken-rig-count-falls-below-80/
Dan,
What is important here is falling oil and fuel prices.
Remember…. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.
We produce more and more at lower prices when efficiency gains cut costs to enable profitable operations below $80/ bbl.
The bottom is in and it is much higher than Citibank predicted and maybe took a position based on the analysis, perhaps why they are now trying to underestimate China’s growth to try to get out with have their assets?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bottom-oil-prices-lot-people-002458654.html
Bottom is a long way down for oil, housing and commodities of all kinds Dan.
And China GDP growth is still falling falling falling….
http://goo.gl/7iG35f
Are you feeling vexed by uncertainty over the impact of a Greek default?
The New York Times
Uncertainty Over Impact of a Default by Greece
Tourists visiting the Acropolis in Athens. Investors are starting to conclude that after five years of endless analysis and speculation, no one really knows for sure how the markets will react to a default. Some have sought answers in psychological profiles of Greek leaders.
Kostas Tsironis / Reuters
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
April 27, 2015
When it comes to assessing the consequences of a messy Greek default on global markets, two views have vied for supremacy in the minds of investors.
First, there was the chaos theory of imploding European banks and a spreading bond market panic. Then, after aggressive action from the European Central Bank, a calamity in Greece — be it a default or an exit from the euro — came to be seen as manageable. Investors, hungry for yield, in turn piled into European stocks and bonds.
Now, with Greece nearly out of cash and talks with the country’s creditors at an impasse, regulators, investors and economists are coming around to a view that after five years of endless analysis and speculation, no one really knows how the markets will react.
And that may be the scariest thought of all.
“There is just no playbook for this,” said Atul Lele, chief investment officer at the Deltec International Group, a Bahamas-based investment company. “That is what concerns me.”
Nothing vexes a professional investor more than uncertainty, that creeping belief that after all the number-crunching and analyzing, one is still unable to predict anything resembling a likely outcome.
…
“Investors, hungry for yield, in turn piled into European stocks and bonds.”
“Hungry for yield” - the driving force.
Consider: If you are a money manager and you make your living by extracting a hefty fee from the top of a huge pile of Other People’s Money then you are going to have to somehow keep these Other People happy by generating a decent return for them that they will get to enjoy AFTER you subtract from the money pile your hefty fee.
And this is tough to do - to prudently do - in a market of low returns without taking on some big risks but nevertheless this is what you will need to do because you will have little choice.
Besides, as for the money that you will be putting at risk? It belongs to somebody else.
What’s really neat for a money manager is that if the pile of money you manage happens to take a big hit AND if everyone else’s pile of money also takes a big hit then all the money managers get to say to their investors something on the line of “Nobody could have see this coming”, which implies that you are a victim right along with everyone else.
So it ends up being okay for a money manager to buy up a bunch of risky investment stuff as long as a lot of other money managers are doing the same thing.
But if a lot of other money managers are doing the same thing - are buying up the same investment stuff - then the prices of the stuff they are buying will rise, and this price rise will make them look like … like investment geniuses!
Investment genius is a rising market.
And this rising market attracts new investment money and the genius who manages this new investment money not only gets to enjoy the status of being considered a genius, he also get to extract some hefty fees.
What’s to become of share prices when and if that craven yield hunger is ever sated?
What’s so vexing? Anytime you over leverage yourself, ask for help but continue the same behavior that got you there in the first place….the result will be an unprecedented disaster.
Has oil resumed its slide?
wsj dot com
Futures Movers
Oil slides, with Brent dropping below $65
By Eric Yep
Published: Apr 28, 2015 3:42 a.m. ET
Saudi Arabia says it’ll keep pumping oil for its customers
Crude-oil futures fell in Asian trade Tuesday, with Brent dropping below the $65 mark, ahead of inventory data due later and a pledge from Saudi Arabia to keep pumping oil.
…
LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude futures reversed early losses to hold steady on Tuesday as a weaker dollar offset expectations that weekly U.S. crude inventory data will show another record build.
Brent June crude futures rose 10 cents to $64.93 a barrel by 1300 GMT (1400 BST) after touching a low of $63.90 earlier in the session. U.S. June crude rose 10 cents to $57.09 a barrel, recovering from an intra-day low of $56.91.
An ever weaker dollar is your best hope for higher oil prices in the face of collapsed demand.
It was a 25% increase in the dollar engineered by Obama to hurt Putin that caused about half the decline in oil, so it is one on the reasons oil will rise. But the more basic reason is that we are quickly running out of cheap oil. Geology is going to swamp any efforts of cost savings.
If Obama was responsible for 10% of the stuff A Dan thinks he does, O is ridiculously powerful and all knowing.
Obama is like Reagan, only smarter and I read he can fly. (but only to save poor people)
I was a buyer again today with my current position up 5%. Stops are in, gains are locked. Everyone is a genius in a rising market.
Do recent US stock market results trigger your fear of heights?
Marketwatch dot com
April 25, 2015
U.S. Money Managers Turn Cautious
By Jack Willoughby
America’s money managers have developed a fear of heights. Doctors might call it acrophobia, but investors call it a logical response to a stock market that has more than doubled in the past six years, and now sits just below an all-time high. This widespread wariness is evident in Barron’s latest Big Money poll, in which a record 50% of respondents categorize themselves as neutral about the market’s prospects through year end. That’s the highest neutral reading since the spring of 2005, when 40% were sitting on the fence, and a sharp increase from last fall’s 31%.
“We see more tentativeness than we did last year, and more withdrawal requests,” says Douglas MacKay, founder of Broadleaf Partners in Hudson, Ohio, with $170 million under management. “There’s just not that urgency to get in. Your average investor isn’t putting money into stocks.”
…
You bought a house in the last 15 years? And you financed it?
You’ve got rocks in your head.
what about the pride of ownership and be able to tell your friends your a homeowner?
No regrets. I’d rather pay a bank than pay a landlord.
A bank will never tell me what pets I can or can’t have.
A bank will never tell me I can’t put in hardwood floors.
A bank will never tell me I can’t paint a room purple.
A bank will never tell me I can’t convert a bedroom into an office.
A bank will never give me a 30 day notice to vacate without reason.
With a mortgage I have freedom renters don’t have.
With a mortgage I have a tax deduction renters don’t have.
Renting sucks.
And you will only be a slave to the bank for 23 years, instead of being a slave to the LL forever.
Paying a massively inflated price for a depreciating asset is never a wise idea. Doubling your losses by seeking a loan shark is a fools errand.
Enjoy your losses to depreciation and financing.
A landlord will never tell me what pets I can or can’t have. A lease does.
A landlord will put in hardwood floors for you.
A landlord will paint a room purple for you.
A landlord will convert a bedroom into an office for you.
A bank will toss your stinky junk out on the curb when you don’t pay them.
Empty pockets prefer to be told what to do and how much to pay. The rest of negotiate.
An individual LL may do those things. A commercial LL most assuredly will NOT.
A commercial LL will tell you what pets you can have and make you pay through the nose.
A commercial LL will put in the cheapest carpet and linoleum and probably charge you for it.
A commercial LL will paint your walls white, 400 times.
A commercial LL will not convert any rooms. You’ll be lucky if they replace the water heater instead of trying to squeeze more time with just one more flush. (did that to me)
And as we have seen numerous times, the bank will NOT toss out your stinky junk even if you don’t pay them for years. But the LL will throw out your junk within 10 days. (seen it)
Donk… you’re forgetting something. We are landlords.
WE allow any and all domestic pets. And we don’t charge a penny. We get security.
WE will install whatever floor covering the lessee selects.
WE will cover your walls with whatever the lessee selects.
WE will move wall partitions to where ever the lessee chooses.
And if you think a lender won’t pitch your junk, go ahead and hold payment and let us know how that works out. I dare ya.
EmptyPockets get pushed around.
Mortgages suck too. Save and pay ca$h.
Further to the point; Rental rates are half the cost of buying a depreciating house at current grossly inflated prices.
Rent.
I agree and would but bought new at $70sq/ft in ‘99. So gonna sit tight.
The “civil unrest” in Ferguson constributed to a sharp decline in home prices as well as the local economy. Will the riots in Baltimore have the same effect?
It’s going to be a long, hot summer in America’s urban centers.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/11/25/ferguson-economy-hurting-with-no-relief-in-sight/
+1 for calling it a “long hot summer”
Diversity and multiculturalism are liberal lies.
Diversity and multiculturalism are liberal lies
Actually, I think they are globalists lies that the liberals believe.
We sold my parents’ home this spring four miles east of Ferguson ground zero. Had to knock 24% off the initial list price to move it.
All that means is that a very unrealistic number was chosen as the list price.
You could look at it that way. But I’m not one to price above market and hope for the best. Our list price was well in line with the comps over the last year or so. Problem is that the lingering stigma of recent nearby rioting pretty much makes those comps irrelevant. Who wants to own in the unaccredited school district where Michael Brown spent his sophomore year of high school, literally within walking district of Ferguson Riots Ground Zero?
PS I also tried to interest my parents and sisters in marketing the home last fall, but they would have none of my advice. And come January when we listed, the market was dead as a doornail.
Selling by family committee is tough!
For folks who now have access to affordable health care, the Democrat votes-for-entitlements base in Baltimore seem rather unhappy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-riots-and-protests-in-baltimore-after-freddie-gray-death-2015-4
If you like your Democrat-run urban dystopia, you can keep your Democrat-run urban dystopia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11567301/Violence-and-vigilantism-as-Baltimore-erupts-into-rioting.html
goons for Hillary!
Her campaign rally in Baltimore yesterday got a little out of hand.
Actually, I thought she would have difficulty turning out black males and she proved me wrong.
Wonder how those urban hipsters are feeling about their downtown condos now.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3057819/Baltimore-police-Freddie-Gray-protestors-clash-violently-funeral.html
Even the oligarch-controlled MSM is having a hard time turning a blind eye to Hillary’s corruption and influence-peddling. But retards will vote for her nonetheless.
http://www.businessinsider.com/defending-hillary-clinton-is-getting-harder-2015-4
Coming soon to a Democrat-maladministered urban cesspool near you.
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/505587
Are you expecting global economic stimulus to keep driving stocks higher forever?
Marketwatch dot com
U.S. stocks: Futures point to losses ahead of Fed meeting
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Apr 28, 2015 8:05 a.m. ET
Apple climbs nearly 3% premarket after earnings beat
Federal Reserve
Wall Street remained jittery on Tuesday, with stock-index futures sliding into the red as the Federal Reserve is set to kick off its two-day policy-setting meeting Tuesday, which will be closely watched for any clues on the first rate hike.
…
“With the strength in equities of late, investors are looking for any excuse to lock in some profits and Fed meetings tend to provide a prompt,” said Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at stockbroker Interactive Investor, in a note. “However, with a low rate and artificially stimulated global environment equities are still looking to continue their trend higher.”
…
I expect another round of QE this year actually. If home or stock prices show a significant decline QE 4 is coming.
This whole recovery has been based on asset prices because it allows politicians to continue to run the real economy into the ground.
China is now Apple’s largest market because contrary to the official statistics and the CIA, everyone in China is dirt poor. (sarcasm off).
Sorry second largest market larger than a combined Europe.
But when your market can only pay 10% of the retail price, what does it matter?
Actually, they pay higher in many cases thus the smuggling of phones into the country.
They don’t buy them because the price is too high.
That’s why prices are falling in China.
“They don’t buy them because the price is too high.” Really?
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/China-sales-of-iPhones-thump-US/shdaily.shtml
Really.
A fraction of a percent of the population buying electroni-junk isn’t a “large market”. Craterjack!
When they stop buying them and buy cheaper Chinese knockoffs, it will be craterjack for Apple.
Falling prices=Good always.
Toronto, April 28th 2015.
http://www.selectplan.ca/?p=737#comments
Attention HillaryJeb voters: your new bumper stickers have arrived.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/16629031224/
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/04/27/why-are-americans-suddenly-souring-on-buying-homes/
Americans are an optimistic bunch when it comes to homes. Even in April 2006, at the peak of the prior housing bubble, with prices at insanity levels but with sales stalling as the market transitioned to its epic bust, and when everyone was trying to sell, even then 52% of Americans thought it was “a good time to buy a home.” That was the moment of peak pessimism in the history of Gallup’s data series. And it was truly a terrible time to buy a home.
Peak optimism was in April 2003, when 81% thought it was a good time to buy. They were right. The Fed had kicked off the housing bubble. The second most optimistic moment, after a long climb up from peak pessimism in 2006, was in April last year when 74% thought it was a good time to buy. And they too were right. But now the honeymoon appears to be over.
In its annual April survey, Gallup asks: “For people in general, do you think that now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?”
This time around, rather than climbing toward another peak, optimism has plunged 5 points to 69%, to the same level as in 2011. Only during the last housing bust did optimism fall below this level. It’s the steepest drop since 2008 when the housing market was tearing into the global financial system:
Not to worry. Al Sharpton and “Jess’ Me” Jackson will be around shortly to put things right in Baltimore. And Obama will shower his fellow Democrat municipal “leaders” with billions in “redevelopment aid” courtesy of middle class taxpayers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/west-baltimore-ashes-night-violence-and-looting-photos
The top rated reader comments on a New York Times article about Obama’s sons rioting in Baltimore all call for redistribution as the solution to this.
Naturally. Meaning redistribution from the middle and working classes, not the oligarchy.
Government intervention helps the poor, harms the middle class and has no impact on the wealthy.
February new home prices jump to seven-year highs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/february-home-prices-jump-7-year-highs
This is no surprise at all considering you can buy a new house for less than the price of a used house.
I did a Wiki-up of “savings glut” and got this back:
“Global saving glut (also global savings glut, GSG, cash hoarding, dead cash, dead money, glut of excess intended saving, shortfall of investment intentions), describes a situation in which desired saving exceeds desired investment.”
Check out some of the descriptions:
“cash hoarding, dead cash, dead money, glut of excess intended saving”.
So what happened to “A penny saved is a penny earned”?
How many broke-ass loosers are suffering from this savings glut?
China saving’s rate vs. the U.S.
http://topforeignstocks.com/2014/10/10/a-review-of-personal-saving-rate-china-vs-usa/
So what happened to “A penny saved is a penny earned”?
It is still being followed, unfortunately in China.
Gross national savings rate for China 2014, was 49.5%:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
With all that leftover borrowed cash, it’s a small wonder they park so much of it in empty apartment buildings.
Gross national savings for the U.S. same year around 17.3%, but it is China that is about to collapse according to most on the board:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html
Ah, the land of the Fang nu, where one can buy a home (skybox) 40x his income, a car 6x his income and save 40% of his income.
Except for the savings rate none of your figures are accurate.
So what happened to “A penny saved is a penny earned”?
It’s still a valid point. The issue is what you do with that penny.
A distinction without a difference:
http://www.iraqinews.com/features/iraq-not-bankrupt-facing-war-financial-crisis-says-abadi/
Precious metals are up nicely again. The surge in physical metals (as opposed to the paper gold & silver traded in ETFs) is going to be epic, methinks, once the sheeple figure out Da Boyz have quietly unloaded their overpriced Ponzi market shares on retail bag holders and have started buying up safe-haven assets.
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Or, if the debt Ponzi meets a stiff breeze, tangible assets will go on sale until the liquidations of debt have run their course.
The minute any deflation appears the governments will print money 24/7. It is why in 2011, I gave up on waiting for any further collapse in housing. As long as fiat currencies rule, general world deflation is impossible.
Doesn’t really matter what they print Dan. Demand is collapsing. It’s a deflationary spiral.
demand can not collapse without a collapse of population.
Everyone needs housing, even the dead!
Demand for housing at a acceptable price level is high, demand for housing at high prices is low!
Demand for free housing is very high.
So, perhaps, you should be more specific in your usage of the term.
I don’t know Jack, but…
We haven’t been building much for the basic housing needs in a long time. We’ve been building investment vehicles that are cemented to the ground. Overpriced, oversized, tasteless, POS Debt Shacks. Demand is not what it was.
“…demand can not collapse without a collapse of population.”
Demand collapse is not the relevant issue; rather it is valuation collapse, when interest rates increase from the zero bound.
See my posts below for further insight on this important distinction.
Sorry CraterJack but housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling.
‘The minute any deflation appears the governments will print money 24/7′
Yet you continually “predict” a collapse of the US economy. In your mind, Zimbabwe is about to explode in economic prosperity.
It’s really simple; a government or anyone else can’t print wealth. They can manipulate, extort, create debt. But they can’t fix a large market. Look to the Arizona Republic article in my post today for an example.
In your mind, Zimbabwe is about to explode in economic prosperity.
Ben, I have said over and over again if deficit spending and printing money could produce prosperity Zimbabwe would be rich. Then, I said Zimbabwe proves you cannot. However, maintaining the nominal price of housing is not creating prosperity. That a government can do and if people have borrowed money at a fix rate any inflation actually works for them.
Not really considering;
1) Houses depreciate
2) Resale transaction price is greater than reproduction cost.
Back in 2011, the extremes to which the Fed and other members of the global central banking cartel would go to fend off deflationary pressures remained somewhat of a mystery. Now that this is cleared up, the problem seems to be so many too-clever-by-half fellows such as yourself who are on to the anti-deflation plan and have responded by snapping up stocks, houses and commodities at prices which don’t fundamentally pencil out in a preemptive move against fiat currency devaluation. The frothy demand stimulated by such precautionary asset purchases creates a wave of unneeded investment at ever-rising prices, which some describe as an asset price bubble.
Another view of the Fed’s conundrum:
Once many years of monetary hyperstimulus have driven the marginal return on investment down to zero, along with interest rates, investors will willingly invest in marginally wothless projects in lieu of earing a zero percent return on their savings.
But marginally worthless projects are prone to price collapse, which is deflationary.
The fundamental asset pricing equation calculates the expected present value of a future net payment stream using a discount rate greater than zero. The discount rate is normally calibrated to a long-term rate of return on risk-free assets.
When the long-term rate of return approaches zero, so does the discount rate. Consequently the net present value of a future payment stream becomes untethered. Without the mooring of a positive discount rate, the fundamental equilibrium relationship between risk free asset returns and risky asset returns breaks down, sending prices aloft due to denominators in the asset pricing equation approaching zero. As a result, meager or highly uncertain future payments can temporarily achieve a very high valuation.
The resulting instability plus the added risk of ephemeral earnings can lead to a situation like today’s, where a couple of bad tweets result in Twitter’s share price getting hammered to the tune of an 18% loss.
I’m interested in what kind of valuations result from using a negative discount rate. Can anyone offer an example?
So to correct my earlier post, a zero discount rate moves the discount factor to one in all future periods. The sum or integral that defines the expected net present value of future profits becomes divergent at any profit stream valued above zero. The situation becomes even more extreme with a negative discount rate, as the future discount factor explodes towards infinity.
In light of these explanations, it becomes quite obvious how discount rates approaching the zero bound make companies with tenuous earnings streams like Twitter or FB seem like a sensible investment choice.
You might as well give up on gravity.
Gravity is a weak force.
Unneeded investment at ever-rising prices tips the balance in gravity’s favor.
One of the big problems in California is that the green energy is so expensive nevertheless widespread desalination is in the works:
http://calwatchdog.com/2015/04/26/giant-desal-plant-planned-camp-pendleton/
Remember…..<bWhat this moribund economy needs is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Untrustworthy source, very biased. Calwatchdog is run by the Pacific Research Institute, funded by the Koch brothers. Calwatchdog is also a pension reform mouthpiece for John Arnold, wealthy former Enron executive.
Either way, grossly inflated prices falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is the only thing that will help an impoverished state like California.
You wagered using borrowed money. The blog overflows with rage.
CraterRage Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/KCKIbA
The Hidden Costs of the World’s Ghost Apartments
By David Cay Johnston / April 14, 2015 12:37 PM EDT
A man is reflected on the glass panel of an observation deck overlooking private high-rise residential condominium properties in the prime Orchard Road district in Singapore, April 15, 2014. Across the globe, the superwealthy are snatching up palatial apartments and driving up the cost of living. Edgar Su/Reuters
Take an evening stroll on either side of New York’s Central Park and you will notice how few lights are on in the newer apartment buildings. That’s because no one lives there.
Across the globe, empty luxury apartments darken many of the most desirable cities—Miami; San Francisco; Vancouver, British Columbia; Honolulu; Hong Kong; Shanghai; Singapore; Dubai; Paris; Melbourne, Australia; and London. The reason: The world’s richest people are buying these grand residences not to live in but to store their wealth. In Paris, for instance, one apartment in four sits empty most of the time.
Some of these wealthy owners are looking for status, others a good investment. And for rich people in unstable countries, or those whose incomes depend on dubious businesses, holding real estate in foreign countries functions as private insurance.
Either way, the growing demand for luxury housing illustrates some of the adverse effects of the concentration of wealth at a time when worldwide wages are mostly stagnant. Because these palatial apartments and homes are rarely occupied, they impose a host of hidden costs on locals, including higher rents, longer commutes and fewer retail shopping choices. In some cities, notably New York, locals subsidize absentee owners.
The displacement of locals by the global superrich has prompted political leaders in San Francisco, Shanghai, Vancouver and New York, among other cities, to consider ways to ease the distorting effects of a relatively few wealthy people on the economies of their cities. In Singapore and Hong Kong, officials tried to slow the spread of absentee-owned luxury housing by limiting mortgages.
Welfare for the Wealthy
These days, people who enjoy rivers of cash flowing into their accounts are having a hard time finding profitable investments in enterprises that make things or sell services. Holding money in banks is unattractive because the planet is awash in so much cash, interest rates are at historic lows. Instead of paying interest, some large cash deposits now incur bank charges.
This economic environment makes luxury apartments an attractive option to warehouse wealth. So long as other rich people are buying, owners enjoy the prospect of selling their units someday for a big profit. Many of these absentee owners buy their units through companies they control, transforming what would be personal after-tax operating costs into tax-deductible expenses. The prospect of higher prices encourages developers to buy and demolish existing buildings, often with the aid of government’s power of eminent domain, which allows them to force existing owners out, paying them off at a discount.
What’s also propelling this trend is the growing number of superwealthy people. There are far more billionaires than the 1,826 on the latest Forbes global list. Forbes primarily counts liquid wealth, mostly concentrated ownership of publicly traded companies that must be disclosed. Thus Forbes misses many more private and diversified fortunes. And for every billionaire, there are many more millionaires to whom the cost of a luxury apartment is little more than pocket change. Billionaires typically own 10 residences each, according to Knight Frank, a global real estate consulting firm. That means, statistically, that each of those residences sits empty 47 weeks per year unless friends or business associates use the space.
…
Obviously David, there is no shortage of money. Thanks to our Federal Reserve it is just getting concentrated away from the majority.
The Fed’s “stimulus” is going to its primary dealers, aka the .1% that controls the financial sector. Saying it’s “concentrated away from the majority” is a major understatement, even if 95% of the electorate is perfectly willing to bend over for the .1% and their Fed accomplices.
This should help the nuclear negotiations (not):
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-owned-tv-says-iran-detains-u-s–cargo-ship-in-gulf-144817447.html
Can the Fed get more mileage at this point out of hints that rate hikes will be (further) postponed?
If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.
The misery and financial losses of a spendthrift debt junkie last a lifetime.
http://goo.gl/Ke61yX
Exactly. Debt is for demented dimwits.
What the h3ll are the cops doing in Baltimore?
“But Gray is not the first person to come out of a Baltimore police wagon with serious injuries. Relatives of Dondi Johnson Sr., who was left a paraplegic after a 2005 police van ride, won a $7.4 million verdict against police officers. A year earlier, Jeffrey Alston was awarded $39 million by a jury after he became paralyzed from the neck down as the result of a van ride.”
There’s an obvious pattern here. Go on a van ride, get spinal damage. I don’t support rioting, of course, but unless facts prove otherwise my sympathies are with the Grays and NOT the Baltimore police.
I was flipping through CNN, MSNBC, Fox while on the treadmill this morning, and my conclusion is that the narrative is still being scripted.
Multiple bases are being rallied, some do not yet know what they are being rallied for, but the most important thing is that they are rallied.
“Multiple bases are being rallied, some do not yet know what they are being rallied for,”
Not saying I agree with this article but…
“Rawlings-Blake was one of three mayors who provided broad input into President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing,”
Baltimore Mayor Key Player in Obama’s Federal Takeover of Local Police
by Kit Daniels | Infowars.com | April 28, 2015
Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, who gave rioters “space to destroy” property and reportedly told police to stand down, was a key player in the Justice Dept.’s plan to expand federal control over local law enforcement.
Rawlings-Blake was one of three mayors who provided broad input into President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing, which advocates the federalization of police departments across the country by forcing them to adhere to stricter federal requirements when they receive funding.
“The federal government can be a strong partner in our efforts in build better relationships between the police and community,” she said in written testimony before the task force.
That would explain her inaction to stop the rioting when it began: by allowing it to spiral out of control, the mayor and her friends at the Justice Dept. could use the unrest to justify the expansion of federal power into local law enforcement, which would also allow her to receive more funding.
President Obama said the Task Force on 21st Century Policing is “directed at the 18,000 law enforcement jurisdictions that are out there.”
“I’m going to be asking Eric Holder and the Justice Department and his successor to go through all these recommendations so that we can start implementing them,” he said. “I know that one area that’s going to be of great interest is whether we can expand the COPS program that in the past has been very effective, continues to be effective, but is largely underfunded – to see if we can get more incentives for local communities to apply some of the best practices and lessons that are embodied in this report.”
And Rawlings-Blake was more than willing to apply these “best practices” in exchange for federal funding.
“Our police commanders are constantly seeking additional dollars, both to develop best practices and to then teach those practices to our officers and our developing leaders,” she also said. “If there is any place where the federal government and U.S. Department of Justice could produce a tangible impact on our officers and our efforts, it would be to provide more resources in this area.”
Somebody should uphold the Constitution.
5% of us voted for a candidate in 2008 who was passionate about upholding the Constitution (Ron Paul). 95% of the sheeple voted for corporate statists who viewed the Constitution as a dead letter. Maybe the “somebody who should uphold the Constitution” is you, and refusing to vote for candidates who trample on the Constitution would be a good first step.
When do you recall ever seeing seat belts in a paddy wagon?
Putting seat belts in a paddy wagon would protect the arrested to some extent, until, that is, the paddy wagon overturned caught fire, and the relatives sued the city because their innocent young child burned to death by being trapped by the seat belts.
damned if you do, damned if you don’t!
paddy wagon
A racist attack on the Irish. (JK).
Seems like it is only a two year problem but it is interesting and shows that Iran’s oil and gas industry is in sad shape:
http://peakoil.com/consumption/iran-facing-shortages-of-natural-gas
What ever happened to riot guns? Seems to me that they used to be in all of the police cars. Perhaps they don’t want to hurt the rioters when trying to control them.
the way to control rioters is to use more force than what the rioters use on the police.
You throw a rock, you should get a heavier response
Getting beat on the head or legs is required at times.
You throw a fire bomb, you get shot!
Is it not a truism that if you are in danger of death you are entitled to used deadly force to defend your self
Why is beat on the head or legs is required at times?
because it is necessary to get the attention of some people.
Judicious application of pain inspires miscreants to change their mind!
Case in point. recent video of a mom beating the head of her son for being in the riot getting rave reviews on the media.
a legitimate order to disperse a gathering must be enforced in some manner when too many people want to verbally abuse the order
Simple question for you. a youth is holding a molotov cocktail alight and ready to throw it into your car, should the police shoot him before, or after , if is thrown,by having to wait to make sure you were hurt by the fire. Or just let him throw it in your car?
Gee, I think that we actually have laws and a constitution and supreme court rulings on these things. It may permissible to use violence in such a situation, but that doesn’t appear to be what you originally proposed. Having cops go around and acting as prosecution, judge and jury and administering punishment on the streets is contrary to the rule of law.
Living debt free? No better feeling!
I would add, “and with a steady income.” Work hard, play hard.
It’s called “birth tourism” and is used by foreigners to receive U.S. citizenship for their offspring under U.S. law.
Report says 36,000 people here for this!
Cant we include a $45k application fee with this program?
I saw that and I think $45k is way too low.
No, You’re Not ‘Throwing Money Away’: 5 Reasons Renters are Smarter than Buyers
Kathryn Tuggle
Apr 27, 2015 7:30 AM EDT
https://www.mainstreet.com/article/no-youre-not-throwing-money-away-5-reasons-renters-are-smarter-than-buyers?puc=yahooms&cm_ven=YAHOOMS
High housing costs driving more Californians into poverty
April 28, 2015
High rents are driving more Californians into poverty, said a report out Tuesday from an affordable housing group.
A new study by the California Housing Partnership found that the state’s lowest-income households spend two-thirds of their income on housing, leaving little money for food, healthcare, transportation and other needs.
And 1.5 million low-income households — half of them in Los Angeles and Orange counties and the Inland Empire — do not have access to housing they can afford.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-study-high-housing-costs-drive-californians-into-poverty-20150427-story.html
“The report comes as affordable housing advocates descend on Sacramento on Tuesday to push for more funding for low-income housing.”
The people in charge will never learn.
Baltimore Riots: Stunning Comments By Orioles Owner’s Son
Political elite “plunged tens of millions of good hard-working Americans into economic devastation,” says Angelos
by Zero Hedge | April 28, 2015
The day after violent protests left Baltimore burning in the wake of a funeral held for Freddie Gray who died after sustaining a spinal injury while being taken into policy custody, Americans are struggling to explain how the events that transpired on Monday evening are possible in modern day America.
While most are united in their condemnation of indiscriminant violence, many still feel a palpable sense of injustice after witnessing multiple instances of alleged police misconduct over the past year.
In this context we present the following culled from Twitter messages posted by Orioles Executive Vice President John Angelos, son of majority owner Peter Angelos:
“Brett, speaking only for myself, I agree with your point that the principle of peaceful, non-violent protest and the observance of the rule of law is of utmost importance in any society. MLK, Gandhi, Mandela, and all great opposition leaders throughout history have always preached this precept. Further, it is critical that in any democracy investigation must be completed and due process must be honored before any government or police members are judged responsible.
That said, my greater source of personal concern, outrage and sympathy beyond this particular case is focused neither upon one night’s property damage nor upon the acts, but is focused rather upon the past four-decade period during which an American political elite have shipped middle class and working class jobs away from Baltimore and cities and towns around the U.S. to third-world dictatorships like China and others, plunged tens of millions of good hard-working Americans into economic devastation, and then followed that action around the nation by diminishing every American’s civil rights protections in order to control an unfairly impoverished population living under an ever-declining standard of living and suffering at the butt end of an ever-more militarized and aggressive surveillance state.
The innocent working families of all backgrounds whose lives and dreams have been cut short by excessive violence, surveillance, and other abuses of the Bill of Rights by government pay the true price, an ultimate price, and one that far exceeds the importance of any kids’ game played tonight, or ever, at Camden Yards. We need to keep in mind people are suffering and dying around the U.S., and while we are thankful no one was injured at Camden Yards, there is a far bigger picture for poor Americans in Baltimore and everywhere who don’t have jobs and are losing economic civil and legal rights, and this makes inconvenience at a ball game irrelevant in light of the needless suffering government is inflicting upon ordinary Americans.”
Not exactly what the US Department of Truth wanted to hear.
Peter and John Angelos are major donors to the crony capitalist status quo. Maybe he should put his money where his mouth is.
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2012/10/play-ball-orioles-circle-the-bases-for-ds/
I feel sorry for seniors chasing twtr and facebook stocks cause they cant get any interest on their savings. They are being led over a cliff.
Thelma and Louise stocks…
Death of the middle class: Home ownership hits 29-year low. Keep bending over for your oligarch overlords, sheeple.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-28/death-middle-class-homeownership-rate-drop-29-year-low-average-rent-hits-record-high
Baltimore = what full blown crater rage might look like. Grab all the toilet paper you can!!!
No justice, no Doritos.
“If I had a CVS it would look like the one in Baltimore.”
There’s some serious, PC screen smashing craterrage going on today.
Ted Cruz, oligarch-backed charlatan masquerading as a Tea Party conservative. Here is Ted in 2009 with a passionate defense of moar ‘o dat Obama/Fed stimulus for his Wall Street puppetmasters.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/02/ted-cruz-president-obama-stimulus-lawyer
MSM journalists getting an up-close lesson in the joys of multiculturalism on the streets of Baltimore.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/04/28/brutal-baltimore-beatings-worry-press-advocates
they should drop some cash on them and they would probably disperse. maybe even some job opportunities?
Drop some work boots and job applications, and they’d run like hell.
What does those assaults have to do with multiculturalism?
Crater
Mother of the year pulls her son out of Baltimore riots.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAxodK4-ETA - 282k -
Mother of the year? Yeah, shrieking F bombs and gutter curses at your son suggests maybe there were some parental lapses prior to sonnyboy donning a hoodie and face mask to go throw rocks at the po-leece.
While Wall Street binges on free Fed gambling money, the manufacturing sector isn’t doing so well.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/04/28/trouble-brewing-in-middle-of-the-us-comparisons-to-2009-crop-up-in-fed-reports/