Bits Bucket for May 1, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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How do you “un-rally” a base?
Earlier this week, Matt Drudge tweeted “America could fall” in response to the Baltimore riots.
America did not fall.
However, you now have a base that is rallied to lynch black people, or at best, shrug and look the other way when the police kick the shit out of black people, but what is the focus of this base’s rally now?
http://www.infowars.com/drudge-on-baltimore-riots-america-could-fall/
No “pent-up demand” for Baltimore real estate happening here:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/04/30/riots-rattle-some-baltimore-homeowners-key-to-urban-revitalization
Earlier this week, Matt Drudge tweeted “America could fall” in response to the Baltimore riots.
America did not fall.
As usual, in your own simpleminded fixiation on driving home your “rally the base” theme, you missed the point.
Baltimore is a symptom, not a cause. America’s urban centers are turning into insolvent, dystopian hellholes with corrupt and incompetent Democrat “leadership,” restive and dysfunctional populations, and police forces that seem to cause more problems than they solve. Civility is dead.
We are not going to vote our way out of these mess either, as our electorate is a visible manifestation of IDIOCRACY, fecklessness, and mobocracy run amok.
The outlook going forward is not good.
As of right now, the Drudge Report has links to 12 articles about Freddie Gray, Baltimore, or civil unrest in other cities. The Fox News website has about 15. And Breitbart has over 20, but I lost count.
Obviously, none of this is about the objective reporting of news, so what exactly are these media sources trying to motivate, or “rally” if you will, their readers to do?
The are trying to get people to chuckle at the absurdity of it all. Entertainment for eyeballs.
As of right now, the Drudge Report has links to 12 articles about Freddie Gray, Baltimore, or civil unrest in other cities. The Fox News website has about 15. And Breitbart has over 20, but I lost count.
As it ever occcurred to you that maybe this is what the public is most concerned about? Would you rather have them watching kitten videos on YouTube? This urban unrest has societal implications that go far beyond these individual incidents. If I was a homeowner or renter in one of our urban wonderlands, I’d be giving some serious thought about what the future holds and if maybe getting out now while the getting is good wouldn’t be a bad idea.
As it ever occurred to you that maybe this is what the public is most concerned about?
It’s not what all of the public is concerned about, but a certain section of the public derives a lot of satisfaction from reading about these things.
But, you have a point, Drudge doesn’t exist merely to rally a base. He’s also running a business. More visitors to his site means that he can charge his advertisers more.
America’s urban centers are turning into insolvent, dystopian hellholes with corrupt and incompetent Democrat “leadership,” restive and dysfunctional populations, and police forces that seem to cause more problems than they solve. Civility is dead.
People of the conservative bent have been saying things like this for 50 years.
It got Nixon elected in 1968, and look how that turned out.
Around half way between then and now there was a dramatic reduction in crime in nearly all big American cities. There’s a large portion of the American population who are completely unaware of that. They really know nothing about cities, only visiting to go to an airport or sporting event. As far as they know, nothing has changed since 1968.
People of the conservative bent have been saying things like this for 50 years.
And it gets more valid with each passing year of our national decline.
More on how corrupt Lib-Dem administrations and policies have turned Baltimore into a dysfunctional urban jungle.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/04/30/whose-fault-is-baltimore/
Long time no visit… just wanted to say that I feel like the news sensationalized the whole B’more thing, making it seem like vast areas of the city were affected. In reality, we’re talking about a rather small sliver of areas that are virtually 100% african american. (Yes many businesses were owned by people who live outside the affected area.) Obviously, rioting and looting are ridiculously stupid and those who defend it are per se mentally disabled. And even though I’m not a fan of this mayor, I am not sure what she should’ve done the other day. The only thing I would’ve done a little differently would’ve been to protect Mondawmin Mall better, because it was a legitimately nice mall where all types of people would go, even though it was in an area that is 100% black. It was a real coup for that area, something that could’ve anchored it. I want to be clear that in this case, I clearly support the police and think Freddie Gray is just another Michael Brown situation… a very bad example for liberals claiming “police brutality”.
As someone who lives here — there was no way mass looting was going to be allowed to go near prosperous areas that are, frankly, booming. The areas you see on TV are not merely 70% or 80% black, they are nearly 100% black. They are not areas of “some poverty”, they are areas where you really only live if you are truly poor. So on one hand, those people need police protection the most. But on the other, clearly that relationship is antagonistic. And if you’re going to spend resources and manpower, you need to protect the areas that bring in all the tax $$, which means you are picking and choosing where to protect.
When you see recently-arrived Mexicans working 2 jobs and you can’t get one job (often bc of an arrest for simple possession), I can see anger. When everyone you know is poor but you see on the nightly news that new high-rise luxury apartments are being built in Harbor East, I can see anger. When the only men in your life are street thugs or loser boyfriends your single mom brings home… I can see anger. Is it right? No. Not at all.
The answers are not necessarily conservative or liberal. The real issue is a ticking demographic time bomb in this country, combined with some predictable challenges of globalism. At a time when money and jobs are moved around the world, we still have rampant breeding among the least-prepared elements of our population without regard to resources. (It would be really smart to have publicly funded abortion for that reason. Right now college educated rich women are by far the most likely to get an abortion, while poor uneducated women are least likely.) We import cheap labor from south of the border and both GOP and DEMs encourage and even celebrate it (Club for Growth and Chamber of Commerce are both OK with it, just like hardcore liberals). Again, this doesn’t make violence right, but IMO it makes it sort of predictable, it’s only a question of when & where.
I’m actually surprised there aren’t more riots in more cities. And I’m surprised they don’t come for the rich areas (also thankful). Maryland has the highest per capita income of any state but is also incredibly segregated so the paths of the rich and poor seldom cross.
Downlow Joe has entered the building.
Liberace!
“Forget it, Jake… it’s Chinatown.”
Have dusk to dawn curfews been ordered? Rio was in LA in 92, he can tell you about what it is really like when law and order breaks down city wide for several days.
10pm to 5am curfews for another day or two.
Thank you for sparing us the simpleminded “analysis” that all of Baltimore’s problems are because of Democrats.
You don’t get the amount of poverty and criminality in those areas simply on the basis of things happening within the community or even among Democrats or African Americans on a nationwide basis. Certainly the replacement of fathers with government assistance is part of the explanation, but you only get there after young men get rap sheets for handling small amounts of drugs, become virtually unemployable, and thus completely disincentivized from seeking legitimate employment.
The good jobs require increasing amounts of education (which whites can afford easily) and the unskilled jobs are often filled by hispanics willing to work 2 jobs and work “under the table” because they aren’t citizens.
I do think the DEMs need to have a plan that goes beyond more “programs” and more handouts. And family planning education–including 1st trimester abortion–needs to be part of that.
“…and the unskilled jobs are often filled by hispanics willing to work 2 jobs and work “under the table” because they aren’t citizens.”
I worked the ghettos as a repossessor for years, and I reviewed many financial background reports during that time. Indigenous Hispanic men tend to place a higher premium on family than similarly skilled Black and/or White men, IMHO.
I’m actually surprised there aren’t more riots in more cities. And I’m surprised they don’t come for the rich areas (also thankful).
I bet you look good in your Captain Obvious costume.
America’s urban centers are turning into insolvent, dystopian hellholes with corrupt and incompetent Democrat “leadership,”…”
Hmm, it appears this is exactly what rallying the base is talking about, because this meme has popped up as a root cause all of a sudden among several of my friends.
What about the “Democrat” leadership in Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco? These areas seem to be thriving. I wouldn’t give “Democrat” leadership credit for that, though.
Could it be another case of correlation isn’t causation?
They are thriving for now anyway, because you have driven out many of the minorities out the of the city.
Excellent. So why doesn’t everybody just be this honest?
And for the record I’m not agreeing with you. That’s certainly not the case for Seattle and SF, depending on your definition of “minorities.”
Blacks
depending on your definition of “minorities.”
In social welfare circles they’re, “Minorities at Risk.”
There’s not even a correlation. Nearly all big American cities have Democrats for mayors - the ones that are thriving and those that are flailing.
Ever been to Texas? The only nice town there is liberal Austin.
Dont blame liberals for towns with losers who dropped out of everything.
EBT = $160 mo
Jail = $5000 mo
Some people want a collapse, a collapse in anything. Seems like they are bored and want the action to feel alive. Or they failed in life and dont like to see other get ahead.
Or maybe they just see what’s coming down the pike and are getting ready for it.
No, there are a whole group of people who are constantly making gloom and doom predictions. The reason is a little unclear. However, they almost never put oa date on their predictions. So technically the predictions cannot be said to be false. The gloom-and-doomers can always say that the end of the world is coming any day now.
Grossly inflated prices falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is gloom and doom?
Pull yourself up off the floor and get a hold of yourself.
Did you wait too long to unload your Treasurys?
Credit Markets
U.S. Government Bonds End April on Losing Streak
Selloff in eurozone, prospect of Fed tightening lift 10-year yield to 6-week high
By Cynthia Lin
Updated April 30, 2015 4:40 p.m. ET
U.S. Treasurys ended April on a sour note as the selloff in eurozone bonds and prospect of tighter Fed policy lifted 10-year yields to a six-week high.
Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 2.046% late Thursday on a 3/32 decline in price. That rate at one point reached 2.11%, its highest since March 16 and from 1.92% at the start of the month. The 30-year bond lost 5/32 to yield 2.750%. Bond yields rise when prices fall.
…
Bond Report
Treasurys record longest losing streak since February
Published: Apr 30, 2015 4:52 p.m. ET
By Ellie Ismailidou
Markets reporter
Jobless claims fell to lowest level in 15 years in the week of April 25, 2015.
The Treasury market recorded Thursday its longest streak of losses since February, as jobless claims fell to lowest level in 15 years and the cost of employment, one of the most closely watched measures of wage inflation, exceeded analysts’ expectations.
Treasury prices have been falling for four trading days, the longest losing streak since Feb. 10, when prices fell for six straight trading days.
The strong data suggested that inflation might be starting to pick up and stoked on Wednesday’s selloff in the Treasury market, sending yields, which move inversely to prices, to their highest levels since March 17.
Investors took the strong reports as confirmation of the Federal Reserve’s view that first-quarter economic weakness was only transitory, as expressed in Fed policy makers’ Wednesday statement, said James Camp, managing director of fixed income at Eagle Asset Management.
Sparking more selling was a rising Chicago PMI, which indicated business conditions are returning to normal following the poor weather and port strikes during the first quarter.
…
I detect a whole lot of fffffffffffrrrrrraaaaaaaud going on…
Crater.
Crushing.housing.losses.
Zero down.
Mo Credik.
Sheldon Adelson spent $5,000,000 to defeat a medical marijuana ballot initiative in Florida in 2014. There is nothing “small government” about that, and whatever Republican nominee he purchases won’t be “small government” either.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/04/30/colorado-gov-now-says-legalizing-marijuana-helps-state-fiscal-health
P.S. my state income tax refund was $300 higher than I was expecting this year, that’s the kind of “lower taxes” that statist, big government, mainstream Republicans talk about but never deliver.
Is it simply self interest in protecting your marijuana business that causes all the hate towards Sheldon Adelson? How is he doing any different looking our for his?
Sheldon Adelson and his ilk have hijacked American democracy. The oligarch-captured Republicans and Democrats are caricatures of what they used to stand for.
Sheldon Adelson and the Koch Brothers are basically going to pick the GOP nominee by the time it’s all said and done.
What’s even more insidious is that they do the same thing in Congress, especially in the “cheap seats” that no one pays attention to. For the price of one CA senator, they can get 10 southern/midwestern congressmen and still have money left over.
Even politicians who don’t really agree with the Kochs or Adelson will take their money and vote “present” when needed. Why risk your whole future (and your kids and grandkids) when you can just stay quiet when it comes to voting for $$ for Israel or to cut the EPA budget? It’s a no brainer.
Remember, being an elected rep doesn’t pay well by DC elitist standards. What pays well is being a trade industry lobbyist, hedge fund mover/shaker, and so forth. If you keep quiet and hook up with the right benefactors, those things are guaranteed when you decide not to run for reelection.
Also remember, so-called “principled” guys like Ted Cruz are LITERALLY married to hedge fund spouses and could truly, truly not give 2 sh*ts about the average ‘murikan.
Also remember, so-called “principled” guys like Ted Cruz are LITERALLY married to hedge fund spouses and could truly, truly not give 2 sh*ts about the average ‘murikan.
The average ‘Murican (who somehow tends to be well below “average” in intelligence) is far too dimwitted to discern that oligarch-owned Hollow Men like Ted Cruz, Jed Bush, et al. don’t give two sh*ts about them. They will still vote D or R because they’re well-conditioned sheep, even while the crony capitalist system is robbing them blind.
Looking out for his self interest in what?
The man has zero allegiance to the United States. He should be tried for treason, convicted, and executed like Julius and Ethel Rosenberg were in 1953.
He wants to keep his profits flowing same as the rest of them, Soros, Buffet, Google, Amazon, Apple.
You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won’t have it! Is that clear?! You think you’ve merely stopped a business deal — that is not the case! The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back. It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity. It is ecological balance. You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West! There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multi-variate, multi-national dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, Reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today! And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU WILL ATONE!
He wants to keep his profits flowing
How does medical marijuana impact his profits? The only thing I can think of is that he owns an interest in the for profit prison industry.
Sheldon might have large investment ins tobacco and alcohol.
not easy to grow your own Whiskey.
P.S. my state income tax refund was $300 higher than I was expecting this year, that’s the kind of “lower taxes” that statist, big government, mainstream Republicans talk about but never deliver.
How did you manage that? There wasn’t a TABOR refund this year and AFAIK the state’s flat income tax rate is unchanged.
What’s really behind the “War on Cash.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-30/war-cash-transparently-totalitarian
Yet the value of cash continues to increase.
Got Cash?
Two year note yields are worth the investment without taking too much risk in treasuries. $100,000 in them will get you $500 per year but it is better than nothing and safe.
Talk about a perfect fit.
Shane Ray cited Monday morning for marijuana possession
By Jason B. Hirschhorn
@by_JBH on Apr 27, 2015, 8:11p
With the 2015 NFL Draft beginning in three days, most prospects are doing whatever they can to stay out of the headlines. However, Missouri defensive end Shane Ray was cited Monday for possession of marijuana, according to the Missouri State Highway Patrol’s website.
————————————————————————–
Broncos trade up to take Shane Ray at No. 23
By Conor Orr
Around The NFL Writer
Published: April 30, 2015 at 10:55 p.m.
The Broncos must have had Ray, their fifth consecutive first-round pick spent on defense, high on their board and also must have anticipated the slip. They didn’t waste a moment finding a trade partner in Detroit.
According to NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport, Ray will begin his professional career in the NFL’s substance abuse program, and will be subjected to multiple drug tests over a two-year period, per league sources.
Marijuana causes memory loss and effects motor coordination and depth perception, Shane Ray should stick with the Oxycontins.
That bag cost that kid some cha-ching. Last weekend he was supposed to be no lower than the 5th pick in this years draft, he dropped to the 23rd pick.
Last years 5th pick $18.67M guaranteed; $11.90M signing bonus
Last years 23rd pick $6.63M guaranteed; $4.25M signing bonus
2014 NFL Draft first-round signing tracker
By NFL.com
Published: June 17, 2014 at 12:25 p.m.
Pick number 5 Khalil Mack OLB Oakland Raiders Signed
4 years, $18.67M fully guaranteed; $11.90M signing bonus
Pick number 23 Dee Ford DE Kansas City Chiefs Signed 4 years, $8.15M, $6.63M guaranteed; $4.25M signing bonus
http://www.nfl.com/…/0ap2000000350347/article/2014-nfl-draft-firstround-signing-tracker - 365k -
“Shane Ray cited Monday morning for marijuana possession”
Another soul that won’t be going to heaven. Eternal damnation!
Idaho is one of the whitest states in the country, and this article from the World Net Daily website says that hundreds of Muslims are moving to Idaho.
http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/04/hundreds-of-muslim-refugees-headed-to-idaho
Vote for Obama twice, and this is what you get.
Vote for any Republicrat and that’s what you get. There, fixed it for ya.
Sharpton Calls for DOJ to ‘Take Over Policing,’ ‘Going to Have to Fight States’ Rights’
by Ian Hanchett
30 Apr 2015
Rev. Al Sharpton called for the Justice Department to “take over policing in this country” and stated “we’re going to have to fight states’ rights” in comments recorded by the Baltimore Sun on Thursday.
Sharpton said, “we need the Justice Department to step in and take over policing in this country. In the 20th century, they had to fight states’ rights in — to get the right to vote. We’re going to have to fight states’ rights in terms of closing down police cases.”
He added, “police must be held accountable. I don’t think all police are bad. I don’t even think most are bad. But those that are need to be held accountable.”
Video via: The Baltimore Sun
http://www.breitbart.com/…/ - 222k -
The United States Police Force was camped around Manhattan Island Prison in the opening scene of Escape From New York.
Snake Plisken will save us.
Al Sharpton looks like he needs to eat a few bacon double cheeseburgers and an extra large chocolate milkshake.
Six cops charged with murder in Baltimore. Let the facts come out.
“Let the facts come out.”
Dragnet(’54) - Trailer - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMIZGrgWOO4 - 197k -
Six cops charged with murder in Baltimore. Let the facts come out.
Agreed. Don’t let there be a rush to judgement. Don’t railroad six cops to try to appease rioters. But enough is enough. The police need to start acting like lawmen and peace officers instead of thugs with badges.
More toxic Chinese building materials showing up at retailers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-01/lowes-drops-after-lumber-liquidators-short-says-they-also-sold-toxic-flooring
Wasn’t this story out months ago?
no one cares as long as its cheap.
Jeb Bush pushing open borders on behalf of his oligarch patrons who need cheap wage slaves to boost their own obscene bottom lines.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/240726-bush-defiant-on-immigration-im-right-about-this
May Day and my day off from work for this capitalist worker.
New series I bond rates have been announced. The fixed rate is 0% and the variable rate has gone negative, which means the guaranteed rate of 0.0 percent yield for issues the next six months. Passing that up once again. fixed rates of less than 1% are signs that the economy is anemic.
In contrast if you buy a batch of two year notes in equal amounts once a month over twenty four months you will most likely do better than if you buy 0% fixed rate series I bonds. Then probably move them into TIPS after that.
Meanwhile spot price of gold is only 2.8% above its five year low. The low interest rates make stocks and bonds the more attractive place for consensus investors for the time being. But this selfish hoarder has intentions to make a purchase of metals today.
And Bitcoin continues to become less and less volatile. A stable alternative to the Dollar.
Outlook I have is bullish on stocks for the next 18 months and then it will be quickly volatile in the late fall of 2016. The movable and hidable assets will prove their merit after that.
Since when is May Day a holiday in the USA? Sure, outside of North America it’s also labor day, but for most Americans May Day is about May Poles.
I work a 9/80.
Any criticism of Israel, or in this case voting “present” on pro-Israel votes in Congress will get one branded as anti-semitic. Article notes that William Kristol is spending money to defeat Donna Edwards’ Senate bid:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/in-senate-bid-rep-donna-edwards-faces-scrutiny-over-her-views-on-israel/2015/04/30/0d74997e-eac7-11e4-9767-6276fc9b0ada_story.html?tid=HP_local?tid=HP_local
Repeal the Patriot Act and abolish the NSA:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/05/01/us/politics/patriot-act-faces-revisions-backed-by-both-parties.html
They will just figure a better way to hide their information gathering. A bullet in the head of everyone who works in that area of information gathering that is not a Christian republican or gun grabbing democrat.
A coworker’s husband works for an NSA contractor. What he does there is very hush-hush. He’s also paid some major coin. For instance, he doesn’t have to save anything in his 401K because on top of his ample 6 figure salary he gets a free 20% contribution.
It pays to be a collaborator.
Oh, I almost forgot: he and his wife are atheists, so I guess they get the bullet?
Not all the work they do is an offense against our privacy. I would guess half of what they do is reasonable. Perhaps he is on the side doing something good, which is securing information. If he is paid highly to do spying on millions of Americans, I wish bad karma on him. To be paid to violate the privacy right of millions is something I could not ever do. I would rather go unemployed.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/05/01/housing-bubble-2-investor-purchases-hit-record-small-investors-pile-in-as-smart-money-gets-out/
People buying homes to live in – rather than as investments to be rented out – form the bedrock of a healthy housing market. It was once called the American Dream. Then came the bubble, its collapse, and the new boom that is already a bigger bubble than the prior one in many cities. And in some metro areas, investors are now the majority of buyers!
In the first quarter, the proportion of owner-occupant buyers fell to 63.2% of all residential sales, down from 65.8% in the fourth quarter last year, and down from 68.6% a year ago, RealtyTrac reported today. It was the lowest quarterly level in the data series going back to 2011.
Who were the other buyers? Investors. The report defined them as buyers who purchased a property but then had their property tax bill mailed to a different address. And these investors accounted for a record of 36.8% of all home sales.
Before the year 2003 people would buy homes to live in. After 2003 they bought houses to speculate on.
But a house bought in 1998 turned into an ATM in 2004.
OU812
Is it really OK with the Baltimore police union if their members “accidentally” kill suspects in custody due to rough riding them in the police van?
http://www.aarp.org/money/taxes/info-2015/tax-collectors-blindside-homeowner.html
phony scandals