Bits Bucket for May 3, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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End game coming up.
If only they had bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes…
I wonder how housing prices are doing there?
—————
Venezuela to nationalize food distribution
AFP | May 2, 2015
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has promised to nationalize food distribution in the South American nation beset with record shortages of basic goods, runaway inflation and an escalating economic crisis.
Various estimates suggest the government already controls about half of the country’s food distribution, but that hasn’t stopped record shortages in shops and markets.
On any given day, people in Venezuela can wait hours to get some subsidized milk, cooking oil, milk or flour — if they can be found at all.
—————
Venezuela Rations Electricity, Blames Climate Change
Breitbart News Network | 29 Apr 2015 | Frances Martel
Public employees will only have to work six hours a day until further notice, and police units will be sent to inspect private businesses to ensure they only use their allotted amounts. Venezuelan Vice President Jorge Arreaza blamed the measures on climate change.
—————-
Venezuela Sells Off Part of Gold Reserves for Dollars
The American Interest - May 3rd, 2015
Venezuela, now teetering on the brink of default, is selling off its gold reserves to keep the country going—a telltale sign that things are much worse in Caracas than it seems. Reuters:
A source at the central bank told Reuters last month it would provide 1.4 million troy ounces of gold in exchange for cash. Venezuela would have to pay interest on the funds, but the bank would most likely be able to maintain the gold as part of its foreign currency reserves.
“Venezuelan Vice President Jorge Arreaza blamed the measures on climate change.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
This is not how you get a “Bacon Wrapped Crust Deep! Deep! Dish” pizza from Little Ceasars. 12 bucks. Incredible bargain.
That pizza should have been called Coronary Delight.
12 bucks. Of course you don’t eat one every day, but high fat diets translating into coronary problems has been shown to be a myth.
The crust is Diabetes Delight.
Live a little. There’s more to life than Grape Nuts cereal and geritol.
Little Caesars is vomitous.
I used to think that also, you will change your mind.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….
Nicolás Maduro using his pen and phone to “help” his citizens (who vote the correct way).
30 % raise.
65% inflation.
Isn’t a big and all powerful government just grand???
Just wait until the unemployment rates jumps up another 5%
——————————
Amid crumbling economy, Venezuela’s Maduro raises minimum wage 30 pct
FOX News Latino | May 2, 2015
President Nicolás Maduro raised Venezuela’s minimum wage Friday for the second time this year to help workers being battered by the world’s highest inflation.
Speaking at a May Day rally, the socialist leader said he is boosting the minimum wage and pensions for retirees by 30 percent, with two-thirds of the increase coming this month and the rest on July 1. He also said he would raise salaries for government employees and military personnel.
The wage increase, while a welcome relief for many workers, fell short of expectations that the embattled Maduro might use Friday’s celebrations to expand state control of the slumping economy.
The pay increase follows a 15 percent hike in January and will take Venezuela’s minimum wage to 7,324 bolivars a month. That is about $1,162 at the country’s official exchange rate but less than $30 at the black market rate widely used to set many prices.
Maduro is the future of the global progressives.
Jorge Arreaza blamed the measures on climate change.”
The political and economic climate has changed.
Hey Adan….Regarding your opinion about Freddie Grey…Here is an opinion from a staunch conservative..I wonder how many times Freddie pleaded out;
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalreview.com%2Farticle%2F392417%2Fplea-against-pleading-conrad-black&ei=vSxGVdX2MIu5oQSt5oHgDA&usg=AFQjCNG_WAddIa9lLXc-vmx_28Ot1L_0PQ&sig2=kzmRI1O1JQjWdVUyQBF0Bw
If he had one conviction, you might have a point that there is a 2 to 8% chance he was wrongfully convicted. However, when you have a couple dozen convictions you have been a bad boy or girl. You also should realize that people plea bargain to get reduced charges thus if you pistol whip the home owner and steal his property, you might plead guilty to burglary and have all the violent charges dropped. Thus, his conviction record might not even come close to telling us how bad Freddie really was.
Thus, his conviction record might not even come close to telling us how bad Freddie really was ??
OR, he was presented with a lessor alternative…Plead no contest, spend a year in county or face 10 years in prison for a third time drug possession….Here is a different opinion on Plea bargining;
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDQQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cato.org%2Fpublications%2Fcommentary%2Fdevils-bargain-how-plea-agreements-never-contemplated-framers-undermine-justice&ei=OjVGVdTqIYjSoASi94EI&usg=AFQjCNE6Q2HMi3JOHn1jenW341Z342×4Uw&sig2=pfUFDy2IAZ-vnnQJLvBXrA
I have former law school classmates that are both defense attorneys and DAs, and the stories they tell me are more like this:
http://www.indystar.com/story/news/crime/2014/10/05/exclusive-violence-rises-prosecutors-bargain-away-gun-charges-indianapolis-marion-county/16760997/
Excerpt:
The Star’s findings include:
• More than half of felony gun charges were dismissed, usually in plea agreements.
• Possession of a firearm by a serious violent felon — the charge specifically aimed at getting violent criminals off the streets — was dismissed in 41 percent of cases.
• A change in the state’s criminal code that began July 1 reduced the jail time for possession of a firearm by a serious violent felon.
Why the charges meant to keep gunslingers off the street are dropped is a complicated question tangled in prosecutorial will, rules of evidence and sentencing practices written into the law. But when shown The Star’s findings, Newman called for legislation to close the incentive to bargain away such charges. It is an idea endorsed by public safety officials.
dan…it takes time for people to catch up to me….but…….
Let the prisoners decide how long they want to stay in jail…..cool idea…its up to you…..all you need to do is read and discuss the New York Times in front of a parole board and ask for a second chance…that could take 5 or 50 years their choice……the problem is severe functional illiteracy and we need to break the chains.
The whole system is set up to criminalize everything..Not in the interest of public safety but for the interest of jobs & money…The whole criminal justice system is a giant welfare program just like the military…
You do not have a clue the type of people that are out there and how dangerous they really are to society.
that could take 5 or 50 years their choice…
That idea is stupendously stupid, dj. Does it seem fair to you to punish someone for being retarded or dyslexic, conditions that may make it much harder for some to read than others?
Not to mention, when someone breaks into my house with intent to do grave bodily harm, it will be little consolation to me that you put him back on the street due to his literacy and ability to engage in a rousing conversation on current events.
the problem is severe functional illiteracy ??
Thats the start of the problem…Thats the precursor to future problems so lets start with a solution there…Boarding houses ?? We can’t stop them from having children but maybe there is a way to take them away…For their own good…For the community’s good…
and how dangerous they really are to society ??
Last time I watched a birth, the infant did not have a Glock in their hand…
The whole criminal justice system is a giant welfare program just like the military…
And we have zirp, nirp because they are sound economic policies. LOL
prime……look at it in the reverse how many functionally literate people have long criminal records?
just watch you tube it doesn’t matter who does a story on criminals or jails…..the overwhelming fact they have very poor English skills stand out like a sore thumb.
this is fascinating… Louis Theroux Miami Mega Jail 1 2 BBC Documentary)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hze-hyKiVHg
Yes its call tough love…take out all the weight rooms and replace them with computer rooms……you will learn to read before you are released…
. Does it seem fair to you to punish someone for being retarded or dyslexic, conditions that may make it much harder for some to read than others?
prime its like mike brown there was a report he was going to take remedial courses so he could probably pass the entrance exam to air conditioning school…that is so pathetic.
also dont take away any privileges..it’s a radical idea….instead if they cause trouble just add the time to the end of their sentences, they will learn quickly to behave.
Can you imagine being stuck living in Venezuela?
What a nightmare.
Can you imagine being stuck living in Southern California anywhere more than 10 miles from the beach? What a nightmare.
Personally, 10 miles is too far for my tastes. The only way I’d live in southern CA is if I was right on the ocean with a full view, and enough space, say 5 acres minimum, where I wasn’t bothered by other people. I’d rarely leave home. So essentially I will never live in southern CA.
You better enter the movie-making business, as either a successful movie star or director. Or think up some perfectly useless internet technology business plan that you can sell to venture capitalists with more money on their hands than they know how to spend.
Can you imagine being stuck anywhere in the most impoverished state in the country better know as California?
Drip, Drip… 04.19.15
12:01 AM ET
The Big Idea: California Is So Over
Joel Kotkin
California’s drought and how it’s handled show just what kind of place the Golden State is becoming: feudal, super-affluent and with an impoverished interior.
California has met the future, and it really doesn’t work. As the mounting panic surrounding the drought suggests, the Golden State, once renowned for meeting human and geographic challenges, is losing its ability to cope with crises. As a result, the great American land of opportunity is devolving into something that resembles feudalism, a society dominated by rich and poor, with little opportunity for upward mobility for the state’s middle- and working classes.
…
It’s actually not bad if you have the money.
I wonder how housing prices are doing there?
Real or nominal? Real prices are probably down, nominal prices are probably up strongly. If you managed to get a mortgage in the national currency at a fixed rate, you probably were handled a “free” house due to the raging inflation.
Venezuela would have to pay interest on the funds, but the bank would most likely be able to maintain the gold as part of its foreign currency reserves.
When you start having to pledge your collateral in the form of physical gold to close a loan, your lender does not have a lot of faith in your ability or inclination to repay…
“On any given day, people in Venezuela can wait hours to get some subsidized milk, cooking oil, milk or flour — if they can be found at all.”
Customer: “So why is your milk four times the price of the guy
down the street?”
Store owner: “Because his milk is subsidized and mine isn’t. And if you do like this situation then why don’t you buy milk from him?”
Customer: “I can’t. He never has any to sell.”
Store owner: “Okay, here’s what I’ll do, and I’ll do it just for you. The moment I run out of milk to sell I’ll drop my price down to what his price is.”
The end game for the middle class.
Only the wealthy and poor can afford to have kids.
Who is going to buy all these houses???
————————–
Baby Boom Among New York’s Affluent
New York Times | Ginia Bellafante
Over the past decade or so as $10 million apartments have prevailed in New York and more and more neighborhoods have been given over to the kind of luxury shopping required to fill them, it has been common to say that the city has turned into a “playground for the rich.” At the same time, of course, New York has turned into a playground of the more literal kind, with a child-centric ethos bearing well-established variants of urban nuisance: stroller gridlock in gentrifying areas, car services that cater to 5-year-olds, sidewalk whining that in some cases becomes its own source of noise pollution.
It is not well-to-do families in TriBeCa who are responsible for this waning, as any casual examination of Greenwich Street at 3 p.m. and a look at the outsize apartments in real estate listings might make evident. TriBeCa, in fact, logged one of the highest birthrates in the city. In 2013, the highest rates of multiple births occurred on the Upper East Side and in Brooklyn Heights. Between 2004 and 2013, of all the racial groups that the city’s Health Department measures, birthrates increased only among whites.
“Only the wealthy and poor can afford to have kids.”
I grew up in a one-breadwinner family. My parents afforded a four bedroom house with basement, built-in swimming pool, extra building in back that had two extra garages (four car garage) - even though our family had one car. And there were four of us siblings our parents spent $ on. However the house was in an industrial area and by the late 70s the neighborhood went ghetto.
Even so, I guess I was used to that situation and wanted to live that life as a breadwinner too. But by the time I started working it was obvious that I could not do the same. Even with a degree in a STEM field. Later by the mid 90s I had $50,000 net worth in my mid 30s and basically gave up.
Had I decided to go into debt and not worry maybe it would have been a different outcome but I was not raised that way.
The longer I live in Orange County the more I add to my Roth retirement accounts and they will eventually surpass my taxable 401ks. My taxes are high for now but it’s a sacrifice I am used to, not getting instant gratification (part of how I was raised by depression-era folks). I just need a raise of 10% in my salary and that could be all it takes to rent a house and move my junk from Phoenix to Cali.
I think quite a bit of what is attributed to globalism here is perhaps better attributed to females in the work place and 2 income trap families now. I think it causes comparisons to be apples and oranges.
If you had bought a house in Orange County in the mid 90s you would have easily doubled your money.
Where’d all that money from the 80s go?
Also you are benefitting tremendously from the stock market pump, so thank The Man.
“so thank The Man.”
Huh? There is a man who is responsible for “the stock market pump?”
I have a bridge for sale.
“If you had bought a house in Orange County in the mid 90s you would have easily doubled your money.”
My salary was $50,000 and in the mid 90s I certainly could not afford a house in this part of Orange County. Average ones were $250,000. It’s a brass ring that is unreachable.
I more than doubled my money in stock index funds, which is what I invested in.
In 1995 the median OC home price was 214,000. You could afford that or something a little below on 50k.
The Man is the .1 percenters who engineered this current stock bubble you are enjoying.
50,000 * 2.5 = $125,000.
No I could not afford a $214,000 house in 1995 on $50,000 at 2 and a half times my income.
And you say “median in Orange County.” Thank you but I prefer the hilly area south of Irvine, not the flatland part of OC northeast of Irvine, which is less expensive.
Should be no problem if prices fall back in line with incomes and rents (either through the latter increasing or the former decreasing).
So when given their liberty 66% of dues paying union members chose freedom.
Proves several things:
1.Nobody wants to be in liberal groups/programs when it’s voluntary.
2.If the unions were that vital to the workers, the workers would stay in the union because they would feel they were being well represented and the union was looking out for their best interests. Obliviously - it is not the case.
———————–
With membership now voluntary, Wisconsin AFSCME forced into big cutbacks
The American Thinker | 5-2-15 | Thomas Lifson
Governor Scott Walker and the GOP-controlled state legislature freed government employees from involuntary forced union membership, enabling them to choose or not choose to pay dues. The results have shown that roughly two-thirds have not chosen union membership when given the opportunity. And that has meant big cutbacks for the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), one of the most left wing and biggest political contributors to Dempcrats among American unions.
Steven Verburg of the left wing Wisconsin State Journal of Madison, attempts to soft sell the bad news for lefties:
Wisconsin’s three AFSCME councils are merging four years after the state rolled back public-sector union rights, prompting two out of three dues-paying members to drop out.
One wonders what would happen to ObamaCare if it were made voluntary.
“If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan.”
–obama on 37 different occasions
I miss the days before ObamaCare.
I used to have much better coverage at much less cost.
You must be sickly. That’s unfortunate, because if you weren’t consuming so many medical resources you could just pay the fine and go naked, banking the money for the times you absolutely needed treatment.
Public employee unions are an Abomination. If you cannot count on good faith bargaining by government there is a ready solution called elections. Some of the worst abuses in government are the direct result of public employee unions.
All you cop haters here should love the idea of getting rid of public unions.
Police unions only seem to exist to see that their members can get away with murder. So by all means, get rid of them.
+1. Covering up and being apologists for police malfeasance seems to be their primary purpose.
The decline of the unions is one of the major causes of the decline of the middle class over the past 40 years.
Union featherbedding, organized crime penetration of union leadership, and goonishness was a major cause for the destruction of America’s industrial base and off-shoring off manufacturing jobs.
That sounds unlikely. A lot of those jobs went to poor countries where workers are willing to work for a small fraction of what American workers earn.
Hey - I wonder how all those “urban pioneers” and “gay gentrification” housing dreamers in Baltimore are making out?
Democrats having an 8-1 voter registration advantage? A black mayor, a black police chief and a black district attorney? The place should utopia!
———————
Baltimore’s decline is all Democrats’ work
Rich Lowry - May 1, 2015 - NY Post
President Obama doesn’t have the slightest idea how to fix Baltimore. His solutions fall back on liberal bromides going back 50 years.
Dating back to the Kerner Commission after the riots of the 1960s, the left’s go-to solution to urban problems has been more social programs. Since then, we’ve gotten more social programs — and just as many urban problems.
Exhibit A is Baltimore itself. The city hasn’t been “neglected.” It has been misgoverned into the ground.
It is a Great Society city that bought fully into the big-government vision of the 1960s, and the bitter fruit has been corruption, violence and despair.
This is a failure exclusively of Democrats, unless the root causes of Baltimore’s troubles are to be traced to its last Republican mayor, Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin, who left office in 1967. And it is an indictment of a failed model of government.
The city has been shedding jobs and people for decades, including in the 1990s when the rest of the country was booming.
Baltimore is a high-tax city, with malice aforethought.
“Officials raised property taxes 21 times between 1950 and 1985,” Steve Hanke and Stephen Walters of Johns Hopkins University write in The Wall Street Journal, “channeling the proceeds to favored voting blocs and causing many homeowners and entrepreneurs — disproportionately Republicans — to flee.
“It was brilliant politics, as Democrats now enjoy an eight-to-one voter registration advantage.”
The schools, predictably, are a disaster, run by and for the teachers unions.
To quote the character “Tootsie” in the movie of the same name:
“Heaven….sheer heaven!”
“The brothers and sisters are running the city. Oh, yes. The brothers and sisters are running this city. Running it! Don’t you let nobody fool you, we are in charge of the City of Brotherly Love. We are in charge! We are in charge!”
– Philadelphia Mayor John Street in a 2002 address at a convention of the NAACP
Somehow, this is not considered racist or offensive
Washington, DC, votes no differently.
The results there are very pronounced as well.
The wealthiest city across all of the land has many, many neighborhoods that are hell holes.
Now, how can that be?
Baltimore is rapidly becoming the next Detroit.
Shamefully. I lived for a year in White Marsh. The ever present green landscape is what I miss. The best month of the year in weather is April.
Speaking of cities in great shape…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-lois-scott-leaves-emanuel-city-hall-met-0502-20150501-story.html
That is just the tip of this dirty iceberg called Chicago - the problems here are so deep and so far out of the light it would make hell look like a tropical island!!
Too bad we can’t all live in small government Edens like Alabama and Mississippi. Yep, those white Republicans really know how to let the free market dump on their states.
They were even poorer when run by Democrats.
But a lot less chemically toxic.
The city has been shedding jobs and people for decades, including in the 1990s when the rest of the country was booming.
Wikipedia says this:
Once a predominantly industrial town, with an economic base focused on steel processing, shipping, auto manufacturing, and transportation, the city experienced deindustrialization which cost residents tens of thousands of low-skill, high-wage jobs.[133] The city now relies on a low-wage service economy, which accounts for 90% of jobs in the city.[134][135]
The deindustrialization is a result of national policies, not local ones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore#Economy
+1. The off-shoring of our manufacturing base has been devasting in denying living-wage jobs to blue collar workers.
Bitter renters! Get on the property ladder!
And I will bet a steak dinner that the reason rents have rapidly increased is because property taxes/insurance costs have rapidly increased increased…
———
1 in 4 US renters must use half their pay for housing costs
Associated Press | 05/01/2015 | JOSH BOAK
More than one in four U.S. renters have to use at least half their family income to pay for housing and utilities.
That’s the finding of an analysis of Census data by Enterprise Community Partners, a nonprofit that helps finance affordable housing. The number of such households has jumped 26 percent to 11.25 million since 2007.
Since the end of 2010, rental prices have surged at nearly twice the pace of average hourly wages, according to data from the real estate firm Zillow and the Labor Department.
People with mortgages do not get to ski this:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150502_083139-weyrj6Mr.jpg
Nor do Californians the entire winter 2014-2015.
Here’s the latest peek at money velocity:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=M2V
I have nothing but good memories of 1997.
I have great memories of 2009. Still have a few hundred shares of a stock I bought cheap.
Wow, that chart is Exhibit A for showing that trickle down and supply side economics are inefficient and don’t work well. Tax cuts and QE for the 1% increase dollars in the hands of the well-to-do, but those dollars tend to sit in various accounts where they have zero velocity. OTOH, enact demand side policies to get money into the hands of the working class — that money gets spent quickly, resulting in a high money velocity and a stimulated economy.
“OTOH, enact demand side policies to get money into the hands of the working class — that money gets spent quickly, resulting in a high money velocity and a stimulated economy.”
True dat!
But the problems is … the stuff the “working class” likes to buy is manufactured somewhere else, so some other economy is the one that ends up getting stimulated.
Pick-ups, cheeseburgers, and crappy domestic beers are manufactured elsewhere?
Instead of a massive infrastructure bill we got QE instead. The repubs didn’t want to increase the deficit to create jobs, only to pay for weapons systems.
Who is going to make them work? They don’t have to work they are disabled or otherwise entitled to money without working. Why work? Why do it at backbreaking labor even for a decent wage?
Those who want jobs have them. The illegals prove this.
It seems as though plummeting money velocity goes hand in hand with ever-rising stock and housing prices.
Big Wall Street rally planned for Monday?
Finance
Greece braced for weekend of unrest as cash crunch nears
Local authorities are resisting measures to transfer their cash reserves to the government
By Mehreen Khan
11:30PM BST 01 May 2015
Labour Day brings Greek politicians onto the streets to protest against austerity demanded by the country’s creditor powers
Greece was braced for the biggest weekend of civil unrest since its radical Left government assumed power, as tensions over the country’s future in the eurozone are set to reach breaking point in May.
Athens was gripped by a throng of anti-austerity protests on Friday, to mark the Labour Day holiday across the continent.
Several members of the ruling Syriza party, including embattled finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, took part in rallies, repeating they would not forsake their people and cower to the demands of creditors.
In a veiled barb aimed at his paymasters, a defiant Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tweeted: “We will prevail in our struggles to bolster and protect our rights, our democracy and our dignity”.
…
Link to the above article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11577326/Greece-braced-for-weekend-of-unrest-as-cash-crunch-nears.html
If only they could grow government bigger, pass more regulations and raise taxes - they could solve this problem…
The could also “solve” the problem by denying it exists. Just like Barney Frank ensuring us that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are sound or Warren promising to increase social security benefits while ignoring the looming crisis.
Such ludicrous drek is swallowed hook, line & sinker by the dolts who make up 95% of the ‘Murican electorate.
wsj dot com
Europe Economy
Five Years After First Bailout, Greece Back on the Brink
Athens and its creditors reach another impasse, with time running out to avoid bankruptcy
Greece is once more on the brink of failing. Why now? What happens if it goes bankrupt? WSJ’s Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer.
By Marcus Walker and Nektaria Stamouli
May 1, 2015 2:20 p.m. ET
ATHENS—Five years into the biggest bailout of a debtor in history, Greece is closer to the brink than ever, with time running out to avert a bankruptcy that could destabilize not only the eurozone, but the global economy as well.
When Europe and the International Monetary Fund first agreed to bail Greece out on May 2, 2010, the plan was to return Greece to growth and bond markets within three years.
Instead, after half a decade and €245 billion ($274 billion) in promised loans, the two sides have reached an impasse. Although Greece has come close to financial meltdown before, the ideological divide has never been deeper.
…
Market Pulse
Greek PM confident a bailout deal is in sight: reports
By Carla Mozee
Published: May 1, 2015 6:02 a.m. ET
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras told his country’s lawmakers that a deal with creditors to deliver bailout funds appears in sight, according to media reports. A decision by Tsipras to play a major role in the talks may be a key factor in moving the process along, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Greece is facing an early May interest payment to the International Monetary Fund, and is at the same time struggling to pay pensioners.
…
“Greece is facing an early May interest payment to the International Monetary Fund, and is at the same time struggling to pay pensioners.”
Go here for a peek at the betting odds that Greece will exit the Eurozone in 2015:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/will-greece-exit-the-eurozone-in-2015
Pay $7 to get back $11 if Greece leaves or forfeit $7 if they stay?
No thsnks.
PS if those were fair odds, they would imply a subjective probability of 7/11 (64%) that Greece will leave.
If I understand the other odds, then you pay $4 to win $11 in case of no exit (plus return of $4 stake) or lose $4 if Grexit goes down. Implied fair odds probability of Grexit (winning bet in this case) is 11/15 = 73%.
Bloomberg
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Greece Races to Bridge Gap With Creditors Before Debt Bill
by Nikos Chrysoloras and Corina Ruhe
11:39 AM PDT May 2, 2015
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem
Greece and its international creditors remain apart on key elements of the country’s bailout agenda even as they work to bridge differences in a bid to avert a default as early as this month.
In discussions since Thursday, it wasn’t yet clear the two sides would make enough progress to clinch a deal in time for the planned May 11 meeting of euro-area finance ministers, some officials warned.
“They’re working hard now and that’s what we’ve gained,” Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in the Hague on Friday. “But in the end we only look at the results and we’re not that far yet.”
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told his cabinet on Thursday he’s confident of closing a deal, even as his government sent conflicting signals on its willingness to agree on reforms required under the 240 billion-euro ($268 billion) bailout. While the government is working hard to get a deal as soon as possible, it will draw the line on matters such as labor market reforms and cuts to wages and pensions, government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said on Saturday.
Faced with debt payments totaling about 1 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund on May 6 and May 12, Greece hopes there will be enough progress in the talks by next week to allow the European Central Bank to restore liquidity access to the country’s cash-strapped banks.
…
Greek debt crisis: euro exit panic as pensioners start bank run
Bruno Waterfield
The Times
May 01, 2015 9:33AM
Athens pensioners wait outside the National Bank of Greece to get their monthly payments.
Panicking pensioners queued at banks, raided their accounts and broke into a board meeting of the state pension fund as Greece struggled to pay its two million pension recipients.
Officials claimed that a “technical hitch” had delayed some payments as Greece braced itself to run out of money in days without a breakthrough from secret talks in Brussels.
The left-wing government in Athens indicated that it would still resist the economic reforms demanded by its creditors in return for more loans.
“My answer is simple: no, no, no,” said Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister, before the talks. A majority of investors, analysts and traders responding to a Bloomberg survey said that they expected Greece to leave the single currency.
…
Let me see if I understand this correctly:
If the money that is supposed to go to Greek pensioners goes to the creditors instead then the pensioners are screwed.
But if the money that is supposed to go to the pensioners really does go to the pensioners then Greece will be forced to leave the euro. And if Greece is forced to leave the euro then the buying power of their currency will take a big hit. And if the buying power of their currency takes a big hit then the pensioners who receive their pensions in this currency are screwed.
So, either way, the pensioners are screwed.
Do I have this right?
Coming to the US soon. Pensioners have been promised too much by many left leaning government entities.
PUBLIC union goon pensioners in exchange for voting for the correct democrat candidate have been promised too much by many left leaning government entities.
There - FIX IT for you.
Greek pensioners were responsible for voting in corrupt and larcenous politicians election after election, who promised them endless benefits that someone else would have to pay for. They made their bed, now they can lie in it.
Public Union pensioners ….were responsible for voting in corrupt and larcenous politicians election after election, who promised them endless benefits that someone else would have to pay for. They made their bed, now they can lie in it.
Will low oil prices pop this bubble?
Or can the central bankers keep this going for a few more years…
————————————————–
Presenting The Most Overvalued Housing Market In The World In One Chart
ZeroHedge - 02 MAY 2105 - Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist
Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World
In every inflating bubble, there’s usually two camps. The first group points out various metrics suggesting something is inherently unsustainable, while the second reiterates that this time, it is different.
After all, if everyone always agreed on these things, then no one would do the buying to perpetuate the bubble’s expansion. The Canadian housing bubble has been no exception to this, and the war of words is starting to heat up.
On one side of the ring, we have The Economist, that came out last week saying Canada has the most overvalued housing market in the world. After crunching the data in housing markets in 26 nations, The Economist has determined that Canada’s property market is the most overvalued in terms of rent prices (+89%), and the third most overvalued in terms of incomes (+35%). They have mentioned in the past that the market has looked bubbly for some time, but finally Canada is officially at the top of their list.
On the opposing side of the ring, who will contend that the Canadian housing market is just different this time? Hint: look to the banks and government.
Stephen Harper, Canada’s Prime Minister, has tried to dispel fears. He recently told a business audience in New York that he didn’t anticipate any housing crisis in Canada.
Just this week, the Bank of Canada also tried its best to deflate housing bubble fears. “We don’t believe we’re in a bubble,” says Stephen Poloz, the Bank’s Governor. “Our housing construction has stayed very much in line with our estimates of demographic demand.”
Is it safe to say that as long as corporations can borrow cheaply to buy there own stocks that this stock party on shareholders will continue on?
Isn’t the obama economy grand?
enforced zero interest rates
too big too fail
more debt than all the previous administrations combined and accounting for inflation
bailout upon bailout
Don’t hate the players (corporations) - hate the game (government).
Same as the bush economy. Keeping ray-gun’s legacy alive.
Small government types only complain when the government helps the little guy. “Don’t hate the players (corporations) - hate the game (government).” When the little guy gets help, its because he’s lazy. When a corporation gets welfare, its the governments fault. Yep, all those lobbyists are in Washington to make sure the government doesn’t help the corporations they represent.
Big government guys only complain when government helps the big corporations and are the first to point out when someone calls out massive fraud in government benefits programs by the little guy without also calling out the fraud related to the rich.
The funny thing is, the politicians who hand out corporate welfare the most are the same politicians who complain about big government the most.
Like this guy, you mean?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/campaign.wrap/index.html?iref=topnews
But now its repubs who want to make sure the banks aren’t regulated in any way. Funny how that works.
“Top 1 percent reaps 90 percent of income gains since Obama took office”
Yes! Yes! We must tax the billionaires (nudge nudge wink wink)
Obama: Tax the rich to help grow the economy
Apr 10, 2012
“Let me me ask you, what’s the better way to make our economy stronger?,” Obama told an enthusiastic crowd in Boca Raton, Fla. “Do we give … tax breaks to every millionaire and billionaire in the country? Or should we make investments in education and research and health care and our veterans?”
content.usatoday.com/…/post/2012/04/obama-tax-the-rich-to-grow-the-economy/1 - 422k -
Hillary Clinton Calls For ‘Toppling’ The 1 Percent
Zach Carter
Posted: 04/21/2015 11:37 am EDT
Hillary Clinton believes that strengthening the middle class and alleviating income inequality will require “toppling” the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans, according to a New York Times profile published on Tuesday.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/21/hillary-clinton-calls-for_0_n_7108026.html - 542k -
Top 1 percent reaps 90 percent of income gains since Obama took office
By Patrice Hill - The Washington Times - Monday, January 13, 2014
Despite his best efforts, the president who vowed to conquer Wall Street and revive opportunity for everyday Americans on Main Street has this to show for his first five years in office: U.S. stock markets are in record territory, posting 30 percent gains just last year, and Wall Street is home once again to the biggest concentration of billionaires on earth, while wages for the middle class have barely kept up with inflation.
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/13/obama-economic-policies-fail-to-turn-trends-hurtin/#ixzz3Z5ciRyST
I’m sure the repubs in congress would go along with raising taxes on billionaires if Obama would just ask them nicely, right?
Obama had Dem congress for 2 years. Could have done a lot of so called “good things” you claim. He didn’t, didn’t even come up. So stop deluding yourself.
Not with the Dixiecrats around, but they’re pretty much gone now. Good riddance.
Obama was put in office by and works for billionaires just like all the presidents they picked for us to vote for.
Don’t hate the players (corporations) - hate the game (government).
No, hate the retards (95% of the electorate) who keep electing corporate water carriers to public office. Let’s put the real blame where it lies.
If you voted for Obama, McCain, or Romney, you are part of the problem and have no right to complain about rigged games.
I have often wondered.
Corporations buy back their stock with 0% ZIRP borrowed money to keep their stock value high.
But yet close their stores because they have no customers as the 0% ZIRP has destroyed the economy.
So where does this end?
What is the tipping point?????
————————
Major U.S. Retailers Are Closing More Than 6,000 Stores
Zerohedge - 05/02/2015 - Michael Snyder
If the U.S. economy really is improving, then why are big U.S. retailers permanently shutting down thousands of stores? The “retail apocalypse” that I have written about so frequently appears to be accelerating. As you will see below, major U.S. retailers have announced that they are closing more than 6,000 locations, but economic conditions in this country are still fairly stable. So if this is happening already, what are things going to look like once the next recession strikes?
Without a doubt, Internet retailing is taking a huge toll on brick and mortar stores, and this is a trend that is not going to end any time soon.
But as Thad Beversdorf has pointed out, we have also seen a stunning decline in true discretionary consumer spending over the past six months…
What we find is that over the past 6 months we had a tremendous drop in true discretionary consumer spending. Within the overall downtrend we do see a bit of a rally in February but quite ominously that rally failed and the bottom absolutely fell out. Again the importance is it confirms the fundamental theory that consumer spending is showing the initial signs of a severe pull back. A worrying signal to be certain as we would expect this pull back to begin impacting other areas of consumer spending. The reason is that American consumers typically do not voluntarily pull back like that on spending but do so because they have run out of credit. And if credit is running thin it will surely be felt in all spending.
The truth is that middle class U.S. consumers are tapped out. Most families are just scraping by financially from month to month. For most Americans, there simply is not a whole lot of extra money left over to go shopping with these days.
In fact, at this point approximately one out of every four Americans spend at least half of their incomes just on rent…
More than one in four Americans are spending at least half of their family income on rent – leaving little money left to purchase groceries, buy clothing or put gas in the car, new figures have revealed.
Yeah, read that.
But I have to say, I really felt that retail was grossly over expanded in the US even for prosperous times. To some degree, all those retail closings are a good thing, a sign of the flushing of the excess. It is, however, going to leave a lot of empty space once occupied by the retailers. Mad Max venues.
OTOH, think of the shelter it could provide for the homeless. I’m only half kidding, too.
online retailers are gathering a larger slice of the pie too.
Yes, that’s part of the article, the rise of online retailers. Amazon, especially.
There will always be a need for some sort of retail. Fuel and food, mainly. And clothing to some degree. Anyone who has ordered clothing on line and received something that just doesn’t fit knows the value of being able to physically try something on and then purchase it. I think we’re a little ways away from being able to use holograms to purchase on line, but you never know.
The question is whether Amazon is engaging in predatory pricing. Will prices on Amazon remain cheap after it drives out brick and mortar competition? If so, the stock is overvalued since someone seems to be believing someday Amazon will actually have a decent profit margin and that requires higher prices.
Brick & mortar retailers are dropping like flies in the Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs economic “recovery.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-02/major-us-retailers-are-closing-more-6000-stores
Yeah, this is similar to the useless zero hedge factoid from yesterday about McDonald’s closing 700 restaurants. In this case it could be online purchases. Who knows, we could probably think of 10 other reasons if we part our minds to it. Besides, what is the total number of retail stores in the USA? If we could look up that number, we might find that 6,000 represents a very small percentage.
As I predicted Vlad the impaler has impaled Obama by sticking an oil rig up his azz:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/05/03/sanctions-wars-and-falling-oil-prices-no-match-for-vladimir-putin/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
Excerpt:
Investors aren’t buying Russia because they like Putin. There are three reasons they’re buying, says Arent Thijsen, director of a family office near Amsterdam with about $250 million under management. The three reasons: “Value, value and more value,” he says.
“There is a lot of rubbish information out there on Russia on all sides. There is propaganda from Europe, from America and from Russia,” he says. “Investing in Russia is like this…fear arbitrage. You saw that a lot in January and December. You had new sectoral sanctions in September against the energy companies. But you also had some strength in the Russian economy that people didn’t look at.”
How does Russia weather these storms?
The debt to GDP is ratio in Russia is low at around 14%. There is almost no leverage in the economy — not on the household side, surely not on the government side and even most corporations are not over-levered with debt.
That makes it easier for Russia to insulate itself. Shocks will come. Markets will crash. But Russia always manages to come back. Over the last 12 months, the Market Vectors Russia (RSX) exchange traded fund has reversed course. It is now down just 10%. Year-to-date ending May 1, RSX is up 35.8% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up just 9.8% and mini-QE China is up 24.5%, based on the iShares FTSE China (FXI) ETF. Russia is winning.
Markets will crash. But Russia always manages to come back.
How many times has Russia defaulted on it’s own currency in the last 60 years? Four or five?
Defaulted on its currency, what does that mean?
Yeah, what does that even mean, lol?
Defaulted on its currency, what does that mean?
That the bills in your pocket that just yesterday could buy goods and services are (today - one day later) no longer valid currency.
Russia currency (Ruble) has collapsed and been re-denominated seven times since 1921.
http://rt.com/business/217003-russian-ruble-tumultuous-history/
Not a great track record or a great store of value.
How much value has the US currency lost since 1913, fiat currencies are not a store of value.
Devaluing yes, defaulting no.
You default on your loans, not currencies.
Devaluation of currencies is a time-tested approach to defaulting on a debt. Ever hear the expression “not worth a Continental”?
Another classic example: Germany during the 1920s used the printing press to defray WWI war costs.
The great read here is a book called “Lords of Finance” - a must read for anyone looking at parallels leading up to WW2 and today. The big 4 back then Germany, France, the UK and the US could not have screwed it up worse than they did. Seems to be the case again today.
Very interesting analysis regarding Russia, the EU, Ukraine and geopolitical moves.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-02/what-does-putin-want
The debt to GDP is ratio in Russia is low at around 14%. There is almost no leverage in the economy — not on the household side, surely not on the government side and even most corporations are not over-levered with debt.
Now, they talk about this I was showing the low debt to GDP ratio of both China and Russia’s government back then by posting the debt clock with its links to the countries.
Read the article and remember what I said at the time. Many of this board called it propaganda but I replied no, I was countering the propaganda that was in the MSM placed there by friends of the Obama administration, just as I counter the propaganda about China. Objective assessments of what is going on is not propaganda. The proof of what is or not propaganda is what happens, if it is closer to what the person who you accuse of spreading propaganda has said than what the MSM has said then it was the MSM that was the spreading the propaganda and you have attacked the person unfairly.
China is doing so well it has to control its internet so its citizens can’t complain or organize any kind of opposition. But why would people in a paradise like China have any reason to complain about their communist dictators? Isn’t it enough that the government tells them how great things are? And if China is the future, why don’t you move there?
Many in this country have bought in the propaganda how great things are here. And they were suppose to be the free people. LOL….comedy gold.
Whether China is the future will be determined by whether Americans realize that we are being left behind and adjust our economic and governmental policies to meet the challenge. First, we have to recognize the challenge and realize that we need to return to supply side economics which first requires that we have one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the world and we need to adjust the size of our government to fit that revenue not decide to have more government and raise taxes. In the end, you need to be competitive. What the left calls the race to the bottom, is just reality. Reagan is hated because he destroyed any ability for an individual country to have a 90% + tax rate when he showed a country could prosper by having a competitive tax rate. Thus, the push to have global government.
China has more government control than any major economy in the world. Government owned companies, a huge sector of their economy, only exist because of government policies that prop them up. We need to return to supply side economics, but China will surpass us because its government controls every facet of the economy, and can control GDP down to a hundredth of a decimal point? Next time, please let us know which economic policies work for which country, and why there are two separate standards for each country.
When the Chinese government controlled everything right up to 1979, China was one of the poorest countries on the planet with over one billion people living in UN defined poverty which at the time I believe was about one dollar per day. As it has moved to a more capitalistic economy the wealth of the country has taken off and it is getting closer to the standard of living of Taiwan. The standard is the same the more economic freedom a country has the richer it is. China is moving in the right direction, we are moving to the left or the wrong direction. Because government still has too much control, they are still poor by our standards but they meet the IMF standard of a middle income country.
Companies have already cut salaries and benefits and quality in their products. Moaning about taxes and regulations is just the next step in cutting costs.
First, we have to recognize the challenge and realize that we need to return to supply side economics
We have supply side now and it doesn’t work that well. Obama continued most of the Bush supply side tax cuts. QE and ZIRP are a form of supply side. We have injected huge sums of cash into the elite 1% and not much of it has trickled down, and the middle class has shrunk. The supply side experiment has failed.
Let’s get Bernie to get his supply sides going. LOL
” … and the middle class has shrunk.”
More accurately, the middle class jobs have shrunk.
Still more accurately … the middle class jobs still exist, but they exist somewhere else.
The problem with Reaganomics is that it worked too well and was emulated by the rest of the world. It did not help that Bush I and Clinton actually raise taxes as did Obama but the real problem is the rest of the world slashed their tax rates and many cut government. Thus, we no longer are the most competitive nation on earth. Big government cannot be supported by supply side economics since tax rates need to go down to a point where taxes are no longer a significant cost so other countries do not have a cost advantage. It is no accident that it is Asia’s century, Milton Freeman predicted it in the 1970s due to their low taxes and regulations. Europe has tried to have both the welfare state and lower taxes, particularly countries such as Greece, but that leads to bankruptcy/default.
China has a growing meth problem, among their other societal ills.
http://news.yahoo.com/breaking-bad-china-meth-spreading-across-rural-heartland-120002711.html
The problem with Reaganomics is that it worked too well and was emulated by the rest of the world.
LOL…best comedy line of the day.
Europe has tried to have both the welfare state and lower taxes, particularly countries such as Greece, but that leads to bankruptcy/default.
The countries in Europe with the biggest welfare states and the highest taxes are among the most prosperous in the world.
if China is the future, why don’t …
因为我不喜欢吃坏！
Because I do not like to eat bad(?)
吃坏
means (according to my instructor) “to get sick as a result of eating bad or spoiled food” Can’t always trust Google Translate.
吃坏
That is the non-italicized version, which makes me wonder whether italicization means anything in Chinese.
Hats off to you if you are studying it. For business or for pleasure?
Well of course. Allowing people to complain could derail the miracle of 7% China GDP growth in perpetuity.
” Vlad the impaler has impaled Obama by sticking an oil rig up his azz”
Dictatorial types excite you, don’t they Dan? And in your excitement you are probably too revealing of your fantasies.
Such fantasies, and their repression and projection, are at the root of fascism, statism, and militarism.
Obama has more of the mind of a true dictator than Putin. It is too bad for him that he was never able to gain control. But he has done more damage to the concept of a three branch government than just about any other president. The unchecked expansion of presidential power will some day be the nightmare of liberals.
America has already had its nightmare, it was called Bush/Cheney.
It was a golden years for some. Let’s not forget the another nightmare of Jarret/Obama for many.
Who is Jarret?
The unchecked expansion of presidential power will some day be the nightmare of liberals.
Uummmmm—I thought W was responsible for this to a large degree. O is largely just following in his footsteps.
Russia and China are protecting their own national interests not promoting globalism. You are backing the ideology that had led and continues to lead to plummeting real wages for blue collar workers.
“Russia and China are protecting their own national interests not promoting globalism.”
Really? I thought you said they were ramming phallic symbols in other people’s behinds.
Or did Obama make you say it? And think it.
Many have called Obama the first gay president, just like Bill was the first ‘black” president. It fits.
” It fits.”
It fits your projection.
And George W. Bush was the first mentally retarded president. Maybe that’s why so many of his supporters identified with him.
I think he’s gay. NTTAWWT.
NTTAWWT.
I agree, but he and his fellow towel-snappers feel otherwise, and must project their own feelings on others. So they revel in an often shirtless strongman who is ‘tough’ on the gays and others, because he satisfies many of their fantasies while offering them plausible deniability about their own predilections.
Oddie
Are you Ben Affleck’s second cousin three times removed or third cousin twice removed?
And George W. Bush was the first mentally retarded president. Maybe that’s why so many of his supporters identified with him.
Amen to that.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
― H.L. Mencken
And George W. Bush was the first mentally retarded president. Maybe that’s why so many of his supporters identified with him.
I think that he was just acting dumb because that appealed to a lot of people.
“I think that he was just acting dumb because that appealed to a lot of people.”
Spot on. And that in turn is the mark of a successful politician.
I recall reading once that Bush’s grades at Yale were better than those of the far more aloof and seemingly-erudite John Kerry.
Maybe Bush’s daddy pulled strings to improve his son’s GPA, the same way that strings were pulled to keep him out of combat in Vietnam.
“Maybe Bush’s daddy pulled strings to improve his son’s GPA…”
Hadn’t thought of that.
Coincidentally, my HS senior son is contemplating marching into his principal’s office to notify him that the prospective class valedictorian is a notorious cheater. Apparently nobody else, including the teachers who are aware of the situation, has the guts to expose the situation.
I warned him that unforeseen negative consequences could result.
“Such fantasies, and their repression and projection, are at the root of fascism, statism, and militarism.”
He can deny his obvious resemblance to Hitler all he wants, but that won’t change one thing.
Cratering demand everywhere. Falling prices everywhere.
A house is like the food in a Chinese restaurant - the less you know about how it’s made, the better.
did you get suckered out of 100 bucks on the fight last night? reading the comments isnt wasnt that great.
No, I did not feel like going to a bar to watch the fight but I had planned to go. I like Manny, they say that he had a shoulder injury going into the fight not sure if that is just to provide an excuse for another fight.
How many skinflints here watched that fight? I’d guess zero, except maybe thru the free streaming version that was posted from youtube. In this case I think not believing the hype was the right move. Snoozer.
Do higher stock prices mean more corporate donations to campaigns?
Those are a given regardless of stock price.
“Unfortunately, liquidity is all the system has left. Which is also why, in the current system, there will never be a capex recovery, and instead all dollars will ultimately go to purchase every last share of stock until the market spontaneously combusts in a thought experiment supernova in which companies with zero employees have an infinite market cap, thus breaching the monetarist event horizon, and crossing the Keynesian streams. ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-03/why-there-will-never-be-capex-recovery
Glory glory hallelujah! - Janet Fellon
I dunno - the top 15/20 of all time political donors are unions.
And they give about 99-1 to democrats.
The smattering of corporations are about 50/50 to each political party.
Ever wonder why obama did nothing about this when he controlled the white house, had a super majority in house and a filibuster-proof senate?
In 2016 you will see the Koch brothers outspend all of the unions combined by at least a factor of two, if not three. Of course the GOP lapdog Supreme Court paved the way with Citizens United.
Like 2008 or 2012?
Scott Walker is the Koch Brothers labradoodle, and the other GOP candidates are being trained to kneel and lick their boots.
It’s not the Koch Brothers’ boots the GOP water-carriers are licking. Though they are on their knees, all right.
Looks like we’re in for a long, hot summer, with 96% of the population expecting racial disturbances in urban areas.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/03/u-s-split-along-racial-lines-on-backlash-against-police-poll-finds/
Do you expect this summer to much worse than last summer? If so, why do you think that?
There is a snowball effect with these sort of situations, especially given the growing agreement in some parts of society that rioting rather than peaceful demonstration is the way to achieve political objectives.
I read an interesting comment about this a few days ago. There was an important historic event in the history of this country called the Boston Tea Party. Basically, a group of Americans were upset about the policies of the government that they were living under. They acted out by seizing and destroying private property. A few years ago another group of Americans started a political movement and named it after the Boston Tea Party. However, I have a feeling that people who call themselves Tea Party activists tend not to support the actions of those who destroyed private property in Baltimore during the past week.
Peaceful demonstrations did nothing. These appear to be working.
There is a snowball effect with these sort of situations, especially given the growing agreement in some parts of society that rioting rather than peaceful demonstration is the way to achieve political objectives.
The political elites ignore peaceful demonstrations, petition drives, etc. Before the 2008 Wall Street bailout, letters to Congress were running 99-to-1 against the bailout, but such opposition was ignored. In the UK more than a million people ralllied against the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but they were ignored, too. As the social contract between the elites and the governed continues to break down, the political elites will be even more indifferent to popular pressure. Which means we’re going to see more unrest, unfortunately.
I don’t pretend to know if things will be better or worse than last summer. However, the worsening economic malaise in the real economy is exacerbating existing societal tensions, especially in “underclass” areas where there is mounting hostility between blacks and law enforcement. In the Internet age and with the 24 hour news cycle, it’s very easy to ramp up tensions and crystalize the free-floating rage that many marginalized populations are feeling. People are more stressed and on edge than ever, it seems, so require less of a push before they snap. So yeah, we might be in for more civil unrest this summer.
Jeb Bush touting open borders and common core education. Go figure. Not coincidentally, the oligarchs are the main beneficiaries of cheap Third World labor and a population too docile and dumbed down to resist being herded into the incorporated global plantation. Already 95% of our electorate are stupid - isn’t that high enough?
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/04/30/jeb-bush-sticks-to-guns-on-immigration-common-core/?mod=newsreel
“A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess. Were it not for government bailouts, for which Buffett lobbied hard, many of his company’s stock holdings would have been wiped out.”
——————————————————————————-
Buffett argued his secretary shouldn’t be paying a higher tax rate than he, just because much of his income is in capital gains and investments.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/warren-buffett-in-tax-war-rich-people-have-nuclear-bomb/ - 360k -
Buffett Loses A Bet, Fails To Pay… Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2015
Buffett was kind enough to respond to my letter, thanking me for it and inviting me to his company’s annual meeting. I was hooked. Today, Buffett remains famous for investing The Right Way. He even has a television cartoon in the works, which will groom the next generation of acolytes.
But it turns out much of the story is fiction. A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess. Were it not for government bailouts, for which Buffett lobbied hard, many of his company’s stock holdings would have been wiped out.
Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money. The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt.
To put that in perspective, 75 percent of the debt these companies have issued since late November has come with a federal guarantee. (Click chart to enlarge in new window)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-02/buffett-loses-bet-fails-pay-again
A good chunk of his fortune is dependent on taxpayer largess.
This is probably true of most billionaires and near billionaires. When you think of the richest people in America, two places come to mind - Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The first is home to an industry that was supported by federal corporate welfare from its earliest days. The second now needs a bailout every few years.
“Behind every great fortune is a great crime.” — Honoré de Balzac
Housing Bubble II: the smart money is bailing.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/05/01/housing-bubble-2-investor-purchases-hit-record-small-investors-pile-in-as-smart-money-gets-out/
The smart money is bailing out, and the stupid money is bailing in. Get ready for more defaults and more bailouts for the banks.
Hillary’s bundlers tapping the DNC’s oligarch patrons (masters) to raise the big bucks, since the grass roots are unenthusiastic about contributing to her campaign.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/hollywood-bundlers-are-losing-the-spotlight-117565.html
Today southern California was rocked by a small earthquake. I wonder how many SoCal residents have taken even the most minimal emergency preparedness measures to see to their survival and substenance in the event of a really massive earthquake. I’m guessing the vast majority will be sitting in the ruins wringing their hands and waiting for help to materialize from “the gub’mint.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/02/nepal-earthquake-swarathok-victims-help-themselves
Didn’t notice it in SD.
It was centered off the coast of LA.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-earthquakesa-earthquake-39-quake-strikes-near-view-park-windsor-hills-calif-onvisi-story.html
“… rocked by a small earthquake.”
I heard it but I wasn’t “rocked” by it. IMO it was no big deal.
Go here IF YOU DARE! for some recent earthquake activity information:
http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/Los_Angeles.html
This is going to make the Ben Affleck crowd really angry.
Black Crime Facts That the White Liberal Media Daren’t Talk About
by Paul Joseph Watson | May 3, 2015
Despite the revelation that half of the officers charged in the death of Freddie Gray – the incident that led to the Baltimore riots – are black, the narrative that black people are being disproportionately and unfairly targeted by predominantly white police officers and a racist criminal justice system in the United States continues to dominate.
This has led to the growth of a divisive movement – ‘Black Lives Matter’ – which has only served to further polarize America down racial lines, obsessing on skin color and invoking white guilt, while ignoring the true causes of and solutions to police brutality.
Until the following facts become part of the conversation, we’re never going to see a real reduction in the number of violent confrontations involving black people and police officers. But the mainstream media, political leaders and white people in general are afraid to even mention these facts for fear of being labeled racist.
I’m not here to win any popularity contests. I genuinely care about less black people and less police officers dying in the streets. So I’m going to give it to you straight.
Black people in the United States are more likely to be victims of violent confrontations with police officers than whites because they commit more violent crimes than whites per capita.
– FACT: Despite making up just 13% of the population, blacks commit around half of homicides in the United States. DOJ statistics show that between 1980 and 2008, blacks committed 52% of homicides, compared to 45% of homicides committed by whites.
More up to date FBI statistics tell a similar story. In 2013, black criminals carried out 38% of murders, compared to 31.1% for whites, again despite the fact that there are five times more white people in the U.S.
– FACT: From 2011 to 2013, 38.5 per cent of people arrested for murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault were black. This figure is three times higher than the 13% black population figure. When you account for the fact that black males aged 15-34, who account for around 3% of the population, are responsible for the vast majority of these crimes, the figures are even more staggering.
– FACT: Despite the fact that black people commit an equal or greater number of violent crimes than whites, whites are almost TWICE as likely to be killed by police officers.
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control, between 1999 and 2011, 2,151 whites died as a result of being shot by police compared to 1,130 blacks.
Critics argue that black people are overrepresented in these figures because they only represent 13% of the population, but they are underrepresented if you factor in violent crime offenders. In other words, you would expect the number of blacks and whites killed by police to be roughly equal given that they commit a roughly equal number of violent crimes, but that’s not the case. Whites are nearly 100% more likely to be victims.
And what about black on white violence in general?
– FACT: Despite being outnumbered by whites five to one, blacks commit eight times more crimes against whites than vice-versa, according to FBI statistics from 2007. A black male is 40 times as likely to assault a white person as the reverse. These figures also show that interracial rape is almost exclusively black on white.
“Even allowing for the existence of discrimination in the criminal justice system, the higher rates of crime among black Americans cannot be denied,” wrote James Q. Wilson and Richard Herrnstein in their widely cited 1985 study, “Crime and Human Nature.” “Every study of crime using official data shows blacks to be overrepresented among persons arrested, convicted, and imprisoned for street crimes.”
It’s clear that the greater propensity for black people to commit violent crimes is a driving factor as to why blacks are becoming involved in more violent confrontations with police than their 13% population figure suggests they should be. If the 911 calls are coming from black areas and are related to black people committing violent crimes, then of course black people are more likely to be involved in violent confrontations with cops.
Does that justify police brutality in cases such as Freddie Gray, Walter Scott or Eric Garner? No. But it does demolish the ‘Black Lives Matter’ narrative that the general trend of black people being victims of violent encounters with police is solely down to the fact that cops are racist towards black people. Racism is a factor, but the statistics clearly show that it’s by no means the only factor, and some would argue not even the dominant factor.
Studies suggest that the reasons behind blacks being more likely to commit violent crimes are the dual issues of poverty (which exacerbates family breakdown) and a sub-culture amongst the black community that is tolerant of and glamorizes crime and violence. In the aftermath of the Ferguson and Baltimore riots, we saw the white metropolitan liberal media further legitimize this violence by openly justifying and even endorsing violent unrest that targeted mainly black-owned businesses.
This is true racism – by encouraging blacks to loot and riot, the white liberal media is helping to keep black communities in a cycle of destructive behavior that will lead to more police brutality targeted against black people.
Police brutality is a huge problem within the United States, and anyone that denies that fact is a part of the problem. But until we acknowledge and address the equally important issue of violent criminality within the black community, and until that becomes part of the national conversation, the issue is never going to be resolved.
And by failing to make these facts part of the conversation, black political leaders, protest organizers, and the white liberal media is complicit in perpetuating the chain reaction of violence that makes more police brutality against black people an inevitable outcome.
Does that justify police brutality in cases such as Freddie Gray, Walter Scott or Eric Garner? No. But it does demolish the ‘Black Lives Matter’ narrative that the general trend of black people being victims of violent encounters with police is solely down to the fact that cops are racist towards black people. Racism is a factor, but the statistics clearly show that it’s by no means the only factor, and some would argue not even the dominant factor.
If racism is a factor, then the “‘Black Lives Matter’” narrative is valid.
Police brutality is a huge problem within the United States, and anyone that denies that fact is a part of the problem. But until we acknowledge and address the equally important issue of violent criminality within the black community, and until that becomes part of the national conversation, the issue is never going to be resolved.
We do have police departments, prosecutors, the FBI and so forth whose job it is to address the issue of violent crime. Are there different strategies that should be employed to address violent crimes committed by whites and those committed by blacks?
“If racism is a factor, then the “‘Black Lives Matter’” narrative is valid.”
But how do you measure that, given far higher crime rates in the black community?
It would probably be very difficult to measure it. Actually, now that I re-read what this guy wrote, I realize that my criticism is a bit off.
He wrote this:
it does demolish the ‘Black Lives Matter’ narrative that the general trend of black people being victims of violent encounters with police is solely down to the fact that cops are racist towards black people.
I think that he has set up a straw man. Is anyone claiming that cops never use violence in self-defense?
At the risk of deviating from the MSM’s highly scripted narrative about black victims of white cops, it seems like we have more of a policing problem here in America.
Case in point: Check out the video on this thread showing the police dog chewing up the white guy’s face. Can you imagine the howls of ‘racism’ if the victim had been black?
“This is true racism – by encouraging blacks to loot and riot, the white liberal media is helping to keep black communities in a cycle of destructive behavior that will lead to more police brutality targeted against black people.”
The other problem spawned by the lies and misrepresentations of the MSM is to encourage angry looters to destroy legitimate businesses and infrastructure in black communities. As a consequence, the deeply entrenched problems of poverty and lack of opportunity are considerably worsened, as anyone with the means of moving away to escape the downward economic spiral will tend to do so.
Our family witnessed first-hand the devastating effect of Ferguson riots on local property values.
How the 1960s’ Riots Hurt African-Americans
The riots significantly depressed the median value of black-owned property between 1960 and 1970, with little or no rebound in the 1970s.
Any American of a certain age remembers the race-related riots that tore through U. S. numerous cities in the 1960s. Between 1964 and 1971, civil disturbances (as many as 700, by one count) resulted in large numbers of injuries, deaths, and arrests, as well as considerable property damage, concentrated in predominantly black areas.
Although the United States has experienced race-related civil disturbances throughout its history, the 1960s events were unprecedented in their frequency and scope. Law enforcement authorities took extraordinary measures to end the riots, sometimes including the mobilization of National Guard units. The most deadly riots were in Detroit (1967), Los Angeles (1965), and Newark (1967). Measuring riot severity by also including arrests, injuries, and arson adds Washington (1968) to that list. Particularly following the death of Martin Luther King in April 1968, the riots signaled the end of the carefully orchestrated, non-violent demonstrations of the early Civil Rights Movement.
Social scientists have studied the causes of the riots for a long time. Now two NBER papers by William Collins and Robert Margo instead examine the economic impact of the riots on African Americans and on the cities where they took place. In the first paper, The Labor Market Effects of the 1960s Riots (NBER Working Paper No. 10243), they find that the riots had economically significant negative effects on blacks’ income and employment. Further, those effects may have been larger in the long run - from 1960 to 1980 - than in the short run - from 1960 to 1970.
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In the second paper, The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots: Evidence from Property Values (NBER Working Paper No. 10493), Margo and Collins investigate the influence of riots on central city residential property values, especially black-owned properties. They find that the riots significantly depressed the median value of black-owned property between 1960 and 1970, with little or no rebound in the 1970s. The baseline estimates for severe-riot cities relative to small-or-no-riot cities range from approximately 14 to 20 percent for black-owned properties, and from 6 to 10 percent for all central-city residential properties. Household-level data for the 1970s indicate that the racial gap in property values widened substantially in riot-afflicted cities relative to others.
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The 1967 riots marked the beginning of the end for Detroit, but much of the city would have been abandoned anyway because of the vintage 1920’s era real estate that blankets much of the city. Much of the decay of the homes is due to the shoddy construction of that decade, and post WWII, when Detroit experienced massive housing bubbles. Sound familiar?
Utah Police Sick K9 Dog On Man With Hands Up - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ybla4BZRWw - 404k - Cached - Similar pages
22 hours ago ..
“Don’t bite!”
It’s a real story. Completely shocking.
NATIONAL · 2 days ago
Utah man sues police for dog attack
May 1, 2015 11:28 AM EDT - Editor’s Note: This video contains graphic content. Martin Lee Hoogveldt of Utah is suing West Jordan Police in Salt Lake City for using excessive force by commanding a dog to attack him. (Reuters)
Do cops have to undergo any psychological testing at all? Its scary to think what kind of psychopaths they’ll give a gun and a badge to.
“Do cops have to undergo any psychological testing at all?”
I worry more about the training than the testing.
Is Your Local Police Department Using Pictures of Pregnant Women and Children for Target Practice?
Mike Riggs|Feb. 19, 2013 1:13 pm
Update: Law Enforcement Targets Inc. responds to public outcry over targets featuring pregnant woman, child, grand parents.
Original post: What if I told you police in your town could desensitize themselves to the idea of shooting a (armed) child, pregnant woman, or young mother, for just a couple of bucks? The “No More Hesitation” series from Law Enforcement Targets Inc. offers exactly that. For less than 99 cents per target, police can shoot at real-life images “designed to give officers the experience of dealing with deadly force shooting scenarios with subjects that are not the norm during training.”
The marketing team at Law Enforcement Targets, Inc. sends along this helpful explanation for the “No More Hesitation” series:
“The subjects in NMH targets were chosen in order to give officers the experience of dealing with deadly force shooting scenarios with subjects that are not the norm during training. I found while speaking with officers and trainers in the law enforcement community that there is a hesitation on the part of cops when deadly force is required on subjects with atypical age, frailty or condition (one officer explaining that he enlarged photos of his own kids to use as targets so that he would not be caught off guard with such a drastically new experience while on duty). This hesitation time may be only seconds but that is not acceptable when officers are losing their lives in these same situations. The goal of NMH is to break that stereotype on the range, regardless of how slim the chances are of encountering a real life scenario that involves a child, pregnant woman, etc. If that initial hesitation time can be cut down due to range experience, the officer and community are better served.”
The series contains seven targets in all, titled Pregnant Woman, Older Man 1, Older Man 2, Older Woman, Young Mother, Young Girl, and Little Brother. Each of the depicted subjects is armed.
I’ve reached out to Minnesota-based Law Enforcement Targets, Inc., for comment on what inspired the series and whether it’s popular with law enforcement groups (see comment added above). Considering that the company has landed $5.5 million worth of contracts with the federal government, it might also be interesting to know if these targets are being used by federal law enforcement agents.
reason.com/blog/2013/02/19/is-your-local-police-department-using-pi - 441k -
“It’s a real story. Completely shocking.”
Damn straight it’s a real story, but you won’t see it on the national news. You had to watch the youtube video I posted for about 1:20 to see it.
Had you watched it you would have heard about a homeless dude (among others) who got shot to death by police last year for doing nothing, but you won’t see it on the national news either. Both those dudes were white.
Here is another story you won’t be seeing like the ones that happen every day around our country. Black on Black crime doesn’t fit the agenda. Nope, no Elijah Cummings or protests for this 2-year-old girl.
Fort Pierce Girl, 2, Dies From Shooting Injuries
Updated at 7:50 AM EDT on Monday, Apr 27, 2015
A 2-year-old Florida girl who was shot in her home last week in a gang-related drive-by has died, according to Fort Pierce Police.
NBC affiliate WPTV reports that Ma’Keila Burkes was hit by gunfire last Monday night in one of several gang-related shootings.
Interim Fort Pierce Police Chief Frank Amandro said Ma’Keila was shot inside her home by someone who fired an assault rifle from a car. Police believe the girl’s father was the intended target.
Police were having a difficult time getting information from the community and released the girl’s photo in hopes that it would encourage witnesses to come forward.
http://www.nbcmiami.com/…/Fort-Pierce-Girl-2-Dies-From-Shooting-Injuries–301402431.html - 122k -
I remember quite a bit of news coverage about the police in Albuquerque last year. There the cops are equal opportunity killers.
“I remember quite a bit of news coverage about the police in Albuquerque last year.”
On this blog not on CNN or the CBS evening News.
Comment by phony scandals
2015-05-03 16:10:20
Fort Pierce Girl, 2, Dies From Shooting Injuries
nbcmiami.com/news/local/Fort-Pierce-Girl-2-Dies-From-Shooting-Injuries–301402431.html
Happy Real Crater Sunday, HBB!
Thank you. And crater to you too!
DEPRECIATE!
Indeed houses depreciate Poet. Rapidly too.
I wouldn’t pay full price for a used car, yet every day people pay a premium to live in someone else’s old shack. Its the American (moron’s) dream.
Nailed it.
Santelli Exchange: ‘Demandless’ house price recovery
Tuesday, 28 Apr 2015 | 10:47 AM ET
Mark Hanson, M. Hanson Advisers Housing & Mortgage Strategist, joins CNBC’s Rick Santelli to discuss the housing market and house prices.
Based on the guidance of the article I am about to post, you should jump into QE-supported risk assets with both feet and never look back!
Briefing
The ‘fear trade’ has been a disaster
Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
Apr 28 2015, 10:31 AM
I wrote this post about two years ago, but its message and lessons are as relevant today as they were back then:
The economy continues to do okay, the stock market is hitting all-time highs every day, real estate is back on the up and up, interest rates remain very low by historical terms, the net worth of Americans is back at all-time highs, we’ve just dragged ourselves out of the worst recession in 80 years, but people are still upset about a lot of things. I guess that’s to be expected in an environment with 7.6% unemployment. That’s not exactly a happy number. But I have a feeling that there’s more to this general unhappiness than meets the eye. And I think a lot of people are mad because the fear case has totally lost out at this point.
If you’ve been paying attention over the last few years, you probably remember how many people predicted hyperinflation, surging bond yields, soaring gold prices, a cratering US Dollar and a collapsing stock market. This was the fear trade. You overweight gold, short US government bonds, short the USD, short equities and laugh all the way to the bank. Parts of that trade have worked out OKAY (like the gold portion over the years), but on the whole that trade has been a big disaster. In other words, fear lost out – again. And I think a lot of people who bought into the fearmongering nonsense are angry. They’re angry because they backed their political beliefs with their wallet. They’re angry because they listened to so-called “experts” peddling their political beliefs as an understanding of the monetary system. They’re angry because they read scary websites that claim to have predicted the crisis, but have gotten almost everything wrong since 2008. They’re angry because they let their emotions get in the way of sound analysis.
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Its all designed to give you a feeling that you are missing out on something.
All those people who bought houses at the peak used to be happy. But look at them now.
slaves to a payment?
Crushing.Housing.Losses.
Robert Reich sums it up
salon.com/2015/05/03/robert_reich_americas_economy_is_a_nightmare_of_our_own_making/
Is China’s GDP growth rate on the verge of slipping below 7%?
(Paging the resident China pimp!!!!!!!!!!)
Business | Mon May 4, 2015 2:29am BST
Related: Business
China’s economy seen slowing to 6.8 percent in Q2 - state think tank
SHANGHAI
Smoke rises from a chimney among houses as new high-rise residential buildings are seen under construction on a hazy day in the city centre of Tangshan, Hebei province in this February 18, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Petar Kujundzic/Files
(Reuters) - China’s economy is expected to slow further to 6.8 percent in the second quarter from a six-year low hit in the first, a top government think tank said in a research report that underscored the need for more stimulus to shore up faltering growth.
The forecast by the State Information Centre backed last month’s move by China’s central bank to cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, the second industry-wide cut in two months, to combat slowing growth.
“China’s economic growth will slow in the second quarter (of this year), impacted by structural reform,” the think-tank said in its research report published in the official China Securities Journal on Monday.
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Craig Stephen’s This Week in China
Opinion: China gets backed into a corner by the ‘Impossible Trinity’
Published: May 3, 2015 10:20 p.m. ET
Reuters
By Craig Stephen
Columnist
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Investors continue to overlook China’s weakening economy in the belief that Beijing will “do what it takes” to restore growth. But the Chinese economy is stubbornly refusing to react to stimulus efforts, and an increasingly overvalued currency may be to blame.
Last week, Beijing inadvertently put the yuan in the spotlight after speculation that the People’s Bank of China might become the latest central bank to resort to taking out the big bazooka of quantitative easing. This was hurriedly denied, yet it crystallizes Beijing’s dilemma as it seeks to loosen monetary policy to rescue the economy from a looming debt crisis and deflating property bubble.
Analysts are flagging the dilemma policy makers face as they increasingly bump up against the “Impossible Trinity.” This is a key economic theory that states that if a government has exchange-rate and interest-rate targets as well as free capital flows, it can only control two — but not all three — factors at the same time.
This rule might comes as surprise for a one-party state where authorities are used to exercising sweeping control across the economy and financial system.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch says that China is struggling with two conflicting policy objectives, on the one hand seeking to ease monetary conditions to support growth, but on the other seeking to have the yuan shadow the U.S. dollar which is strengthening as America’s economy recovers.
The result is that monetary conditions have recently tightened because of the yuan’s appreciation, which has more than offset the cuts to interest rates.
Likewise, Merrill Lynch questions whether China can lower interest rates without allowing the currency to fall. The same would surely follow with quantitative easing, as experience elsewhere has shown such a policy is typically accompanied by sharp currency deprecation.
This situation marks a major reversal, as for decades the pressure on China’s currency has been upwards as it continually ran twin current-account and capital-account surpluses. While China still has a current-account surplus, this has been narrowing, and capital flows have been decisively reversing. The PBOC made foreign-exchange sales of 252 billion yuan (equivalent to $40.6 billion) in the first quarter of 2015 and 133 billion yuan in the last quarter of 2014.
Merrill Lynch reckons that as Chinese rates fall in response to monetary easing, capital outflows will resume or even accelerate. The other problem is that when China intervenes to support the yuan, it is effectively contracting money supply.
The official position, as outlined by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, is that China does not want to see devaluation of the yuan, since this could lead to a “currency war.”
A strong yuan is recognized as a key policy goal of Beijing, since it supports China’s efforts to internationalize the yuan and achieve global foreign-exchange-reserve status. In the past, China has expressed frustration with the dominance of the dollar in the global economy.
But Beijing may need to rethink this stance if it risks tipping the economy into a deeper decline.
Over the past few weeks, new measures from tax cuts to fresh property investment have been announced, yet there are few signs the economy is responding. The latest official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for April came in unchanged at 50.1, meaning the key sector remains stalled, while an HSBC version of the PMI printed at 48.9, putting it below the 50 level and thus in contractionary territory.
These numbers follow March’s disturbing trade figures, which showed exports falling 15%, suggesting again that the appreciation of the yuan is now hurting Chinese exports as they become more expensive.
The official narrative is that currency strength is supportive of China’s economic rebalancing, since it should boost consumption as imports become cheaper. But imports were also weak in March, falling 12.7% to mark the third straight month of declines.
In fact, currency strength has been boosting Chinese consumption … just not in China. New data reported by the Financial Times estimates that overseas spending by Chinese tourists reached a massive 3.1 trillion yuan — or $500 billion — in 2014.
Meanwhile, the importance of growth for China is usually framed in terms of providing jobs to maintain social harmony, but an expanding economy is also critical for China to avoid being overwhelmed by its debt burden, particularly if entrenched deflationary forces in the industrial sector spread.
Looking ahead, it will be key to watch for further moves in fund flows. Merrill Lynch says not just a decline in interest rates, but also a slowing in the upward momentum of the domestic stock market, could encourage Chinese investors to move their money overseas.
If this happens, it could make it impossible for Beijing to ignore the “Impossible Trinity.” A strong currency might need to be sacrificed to allow monetary policy to be effective. Surely, few would be surprised if China becomes the latest large country to resort to quantitative easing.
In such circumstances, watch out for mainland Chinese funds going into Hong Kong dollar assets (both property and stocks), as this could also pressure the currency peg upwards.
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Futures Movers
Oil prices flatten after weak China factory data
Published: May 4, 2015 2:01 a.m. ET
Getty Images
Trucks serving the oil industry pass through the town of Cuero, Texas on March 26, 2015 in Cuero, Texas.
By Biman Mukherji
HONG KONG–Oil prices were trading nearly flat in Asia trade Monday, after slipping initially as China’s HSBC purchasing managers index, a widely-tracked gauge of manufacturing activity, fell in April.
The weak data from one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil interrupted a recent rally in oil futures sparked by U.S. dollar weakness as well as a fall in the number of U.S. rigs actively drilling for oil, causing a drop in supplies at the nation’s storage hub.
But oil prices are not being driven by fundamentals alone, but also by speculative trading and swings in the U.S dollar, a Morgan Stanley report said.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June was trading at $59.08 a barrel recently, down 22 cents in the Globex electronic session.
Brent crude for June delivery on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell marginally by 6 cents to $66.34 a barrel.
The recent price rally faces other key risks to the market, including the possibility of a return of oil supplies from Iraq, Iran or Libya, Morgan Stanley said.
Analysts also said a sustained rise in oil prices could lure US oil rigs to resume drilling actively.
The market also faces pressure on the demand side, which is expected to weaken through summer.
Despite small production cutbacks, chances of a sustained oil-price rally are likely to be checked by ample supplies, analysts said.
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