Bits Bucket for May 6, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-pay-dearly-obama-anti-091500926.html
Obama’s war on carbon actually a war on the United State’s economy.
The Fiscal Times By Liz Peek
2 hours ago
If you wanted to undermine China’s growth, you would jack up labor rates. If you aim to slow the U.S., raise the cost of energy. That is exactly what President Obama wants to do.
The president recently repeated his pledge that the U.S. will cut our greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, his opening gambit towards reaching an international climate change deal this coming December. Not surprisingly, he didn’t mention the price tag.
—————————————————————————-
Global Warming Skepticism On The Rise In Europe
Michael Bastasch
11:10 AM 05/04/2015
Electricity in Germany has gotten so expensive that media outlets call it a “luxury good.” Power prices have gotten so expensive that the Economic Council of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) says the country’s global warming targets go too far.
dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/global-warming-skepticism-on-the-rise-in-europe/ - 104k -
One big difference, jacking up labor costs helps workers, the only people jacking up energy costs helps is the crony capitalists that are involved in “green” energy and are major contributors to the Democratic party
No no Dan.
It’s falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels that helps workers.
Falling prices=accelerating economic activity.
Sorry HA making more money in their paychecks does help workers, now if that more money goes even further due to deflation, that is great too.
Higher wages are inflationary. Lower prices are not.
More money is my paycheck is good inflation.
You’re a socialist Dan.
As we all know, rising wages merely pushes up general prices. Falling prices is positively bullish and good for the economy.
No wages can and should rise due to higher productivity and that does not cause inflation. That is why America once had a standard of living that was the envy of the world.
Rising wages in the absence of squeezing out efficiencies drives inflation higher.
Once again…. Do you really believe wages will double or triple to meet grossly inflated prices of everything?
Of course not.
Prices will continue falling until they meet dramatically lower wages.
The trouble with falling prices is that income drops faster than prices. (See: “Layoffs”)
As we have seen repeatedly, labor costs are the first things cut, and pay raises are the absolute last thing increased.
Layoffs already occurred my friend. Labor Force Participation rate is at 37 year lows.
Why would pay increases be necessary in an environment of falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels?
Chicken or Egg?
Nobody making any money = Nobody spending any money
Nobody spending any money = Layoffs first, then outsourcing, then price cuts.
Why wouldn’t anyone be making money?
There’s no need to be pedantic HA. You already stated that it is only rising wages without increases in productivity that is bad. Dan is just pointing out that productivity has and is rising, and worker wage increases to go along with that wouldn’t cause inflation.
The formula looks something like
(energy+ raw materials ) + (wage / productivity) = cost per unit
so as long as wage/productivity as a component doesn’t rise, workers can get increased pay with no inflation…
That’s not what he’s implying.
He suggesting the same run down lie that if prices fall, unemployment will result. My point is the unemployment already occurred and there is nothing but hot air, fraud and fixing going on with prices.
Your formula leaves something out. The cost per unit is going to be less than the amount paid by the consumer.
so as long as wage/productivity as a component doesn’t rise, workers can get increased pay with no inflation…
That is exactly what I did state and I am glad you understood it. It was the increased productivity of America that gave us our standard of living. Depressing wages with immigrant labor often times impedes productivity gains which is the only real way to achieve prosperity. Encouraging investment in plant and equipment is the best way to increase productivity and is the basis of supply side economics. I know you know all of this but it is for the benefit of many on this board that think somehow encouraging demand by printing money can create prosperity.
That’s not happening Dan. Wages would have to double or triple. Of course thats not going to happen.
Gotta love how the “crony capitalists” are only the green companies, not big oil, not bankers, not defense contractors. This is such hypocrisy!
What about the Obama-Fed war on savers and taxpayers?
Obama Trauma. You should get that looked at before it blossoms into a full blown case of superannuated shrieking tree monkey.
LOL!! Tin hat post of the month!
(FXP) China short fund up almost 10% in 2 days.
I’m guessing AlbqDan’s China short investments are up a lot this week, too, thanks to the marks in the other side of the trade whose beliefs match what he posts here.
His arguments are both too articulate and implausible to believe they aren’t merely a deception delivered as part of an investment strategy, rather than an honest expression of his views.
WRONG! Cutting our reliance on fossil fuels will help our economy in the long run. What’s good for the oil companies is not what’s good for America.
Cutting our reliance on fossil fuels will help our economy in the long run.
In the long run, we will all be dead. If like Spain we make ourselves uncompetitive and increase our debt to finance alternative energy, we will regret it. The solar panels will no longer be producing electricity when solar is competitive with coal without subsidies of solar and penalties for coal.
This is your problem, short term thinking cause you have no kids nor care about the planet. Typical GOP, kill the Ohio River to save a dollar.
If you do not recognize the paraphrase it is from Keynes the god of liberal economics. Nothing wrong with research on alternative energy but to deploy them prematurely driving up costs for everyone but the working poor in particular is nothing short of criminal and has led to many deaths in Europe from people that could no longer afford to heat their homes. Here in this country the war on coal has aggravated abject poverty on native American reservations and in the poverty filled areas of coal country in the East. The war on coal has many real life victims where is your liberal “compassion” for them?
baloney!
dont tell me what i cant buy!!
f’n control freak
Who is trying to control what you can buy? Go a head buy a Tesla just don’t expect everyone to subsidize your expenditure.
Fossil fuels are finite and we are running out of them. Alternative energy technologies are slowly driving down their costs. There is no need for big government and high taxes and expenditures. This is a “problem” that the free market will take care of, as soon as alternative fuels can be produced at competitive prices fossil fuels will be displaced.
False Dan. New oil is always being formed.
ABQ - you are so misled. I feel like Sean Hannity is on here.
Did you really pass the bar in NM? Try to be an independent thinker, not a Foxbot.
I passed the bar in California on my first try, something your governor was unable to do.
Try to be an independent thinker, not a Foxbot.
So glad you do not divide the world into neocons and liberals. LOl. Do you think Hannity believes in Peak Oil? Try to have one opinion not approved by MSNBC.
….passed the bar, could not compete in CA, fled to ABQ. Now I get it. You are just bitter. You could have tried Fresno, people slip and fall there too.
I just have Hulu + for John Stewart and Workaholics.
Rand Paul 2016!!
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/economy/China-April-HSBC-service-PMI-hits-4month-high/shdaily.shtml
Things appear to be wonderful in China …
“Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said the data suggested that Chinese service sector companies had a strong start to the second quarter, with activity and new orders both rising solidly in April.”
Then again, maybe not …
“However, a downturn in manufacturing operating conditions led to a weaker expansion of overall business activity in April, and continued job shedding at manufacturing firms offset a modest rise in service sector staff numbers,” Qu said.
“Earlier data showed that manufacturing activity in China’s private and export-oriented companies deteriorated …
(”deteriorated”. Ugh, what an ugly word)
“… in April with the fastest pace seen in one year with the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index landing at 48.9, down from 49.6 in March and being lower than the previous flash reading of 49.2.
“China’s economic growth moderated to 7 percent in the first three months, the weakest quarterly expansion in six years and prompting the central bank to take the surprising policy-easing actions including cuts of both interest rate and reserve requirement ratio in the past two months.
“Qu said more measures may be required to ensure the economy does not slow further despite the recent stimulus package.”
Let’s back up a bit …
“China’s economic growth moderated to 7 percent in the first three months, the weakest quarterly expansion in six years …”
And the solution to this problem involves …
“… prompting the central bank to take the surprising policy-easing actions including cuts of both interest rate and reserve requirement ratio in the past two months.”
Note that these actions are financial-type actions and are thus loaded up with abundant supplies of magic and miracles.
It is one thing to meddle with financial policies in order to RESPOND to economic activity and it is quite a different thing to meddle with financial policies in order to DRIVE economic activity.
”deteriorated”
It’s all good, as today’s deterioration is tomorrow’s housing demand stimulus. The resulting increased rate of empty high rise investment condo construction will ensure that China’s 7 pct GDP growth will continue perpetually.
Even the city featured in 60 minutes is now inhabited.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of-chinas-ghost-cities/
Not want the board wants to hear but something they should consider if they want to make good investments.
‘I met the Surgeon General - he offered me a cigarette !’
‘I stuck my head out the window and got arrested for mooning!’
http://users.rcn.com/shogan/funny/rodney.htm
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/Luxury-homes-sales-more-than-double-in-Shanghai/shdaily.shtml
China is a cratering economy Dan.
It is pronounced show me and it did:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Xiaomi-tops-shipments-in-Q1/shdaily.shtml
Excerpt from link:
CHINA’S service activity in private firms strengthened further in April at the fastest pace in four months, a survey showed today.
The HSBC Business Activity Index, a gauge of operating conditions in private service companies, landed at 52.9 last month, up from March’s 52.3, according to HSBC Holdings plc and research firm Markit.
A reading above 50 means expansion. The index indicated activity levels have now increased in each of the past nine months, and the latest expansion the quickest seen in four months.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said the data suggested that Chinese service sector companies had a strong start to the second quarter, with activity and new orders both rising solidly in April.
Falling prices….. cratering demand…
“In China’s Bond Market, Something Worse Than A Default”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/05/03/in-chinas-bond-market-something-worse-than-a-default/
‘central government technocrats are running out of options to rescue the faltering economy.’
Origins of Chinese Bond Default Buried in Accounting Footnotes
by Lisa Pham, Michelle Yun and Lianting Tu
2:00 PM PST
May 5, 2015
Kaisa Plaza
A woman crosses a footbridge in front of towers standing at Kaisa Plaza, developed by Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., left, in Beijing. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Investors still wondering how Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. doubled its debt in six months and triggered China’s first property bond default may want to read page 63 of its 2014 interim report.
There, in footnote No. 15 of the Shenzhen-based company’s balance sheet, is a reference to 11 billion yuan ($1.8 billion) in advance deposits for property projects from third parties and for 1.15 billion yuan that needed to be refunded.
At issue is whether these deposits were initially classified properly as current liabilities on Kaisa’s books. Analysts at Lucror Analytics Pte, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities HK Ltd. and BDO Ltd. say the payments have characteristics of interest-bearing debt, and booking them the way Kaisa did may have made metrics that investors use to assess a company’s riskiness appear stronger than they actually were.
Kaisa Liabilities & Debt
“We view anything where the holder can demand repayment as being debt-like,” said Charles Macgregor, head of Asia high-yield research in Singapore at Lucror and a former senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service. “The advance deposits in Kaisa’s balance sheet are akin to a convertible bond where the holder has the option to take land or take cash.”
…
Kenmore, WA Sale Prices Crater 10% YoY; Inventory Balloons
http://www.zillow.com/kenmore-wa/home-values/
The comps are dropping quicker than Lola’s …
Did you look at the median sale price graph?
Looks like a problem with flash rendering.
Did you look at the data tables? Down down down.
population 21k
pick those cherries
You backpedal when prices fall nationally.
You backpedal when prices fall locally.
Backpedal Rental_Fraud backpedal!
When have they last fallen nationally? Year on year, of course, otherwise the comparisons are worthless if you are looking at median prices (which you do).
Answer your own question Rental_Fraud.
May I point out how over the top insane this whole African boat people migration to Europe is? Not the migration itself, I understand why these people are migrating, but the way it is being handled. Either repel the migration totally, or put a system in place where anyone who wants to come to Europe gets transported safely and in an orderly fashion. This business here is just plain stupid and sadistic.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/06/horror-in-the-mediterranean-as-panicky-migrants-turn-rescue-to-chaos/?tid=hpModule_9d3add6c-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e
To quote 2brony, “only bigger government and higher taxes can solve this.”
This “business” as you call it is a planned part of the progressive/globalist agenda, the endgame of which is the extermination of 99.999% of white people (with the obvious exception of people like George Soros, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg).
King Obama doesn’t care about the U.S. presidency, he’s just running out the clock until he can be appointed Secretary General of the U.N.
Once in that position, he will preside over the elimination of U.S. national sovereignty, the global confiscation of privately owned guns, a “progressive” system of taxation/reparations to destroy the middle class, and a wholesale genocide of tens or hundreds of millions of people who oppose this agenda.
You heard it here first (and never say I only criticize “conservatives”).
Couple of points here:
“the endgame of which is the extermination of 99.999% of white people (with the obvious exception of people like George Soros, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg).”
I find this concept intriguing. I’ve actually wondered if the globalists envision for themselves a small white ruling class over a huge brown underclass. I’m something of a dilettante ancient civ buff and it is interesting to note that ruling classes liked to forbid certain accoutrements to the lower classes. I believe in the ancient South American societies, chocolate was forbidden to members of the lower classes, in Rome, wearing purple was a no-no unless you were a member of the ruling class. It certainly seems that guns will be forbidden to all but the tippity top and their goons.
“King Obama doesn’t care about the U.S. presidency, he’s just running out the clock until he can be appointed Secretary General of the U.N.”
Wow, I never even thought about this until you brought it up, but it Makes. Total. Sense. Well, you can take comfort in the fact that he will bollix it up totally, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. In fact, it may be the best thing for that organization.
The silliest thing I ever heard. We can’t stop a bunch of goat herders coming into this country and committing terror but somehow we can round up 300 million plus guns.
You might as well round up all the coffee makers.
I will shoot to kill if you come for my coffee.
we cant stop drugs and cell phones from being smuggled INTO high security jails.
we cant stop drugs and cell phones from being smuggled INTO high security jails.
It is why some people want a big booty ho. Lots of room to hide contraband.
Government is universally stupid, wasteful and evil……
Yet, it is capable of carrying out all of these giant conspiracies.
I’m but a simple caveman, and I am confused…….
Yep, you musta missed the rise of the Third Reich and Stalin in the Soviet Union. Perhaps they didn’t teach it where you attended school. And I won’t trouble you with the various refinements of Rome and the Aztec/Incan/Mayan civilizations, because if they didn’t teach you the more recent history and atrocities of various governments, they sure didn’t bother with ancient civ. Of course, there was also Mao, Pol Pot, the Kims in Korea.
Don’t think any of this can’t happen here.
Democide, or why the Founding Fathers bequeathed us a Second Amendment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVK0yZAhBKM&spfreload=10
And I won’t trouble you with the various refinements of Rome and the Aztec/Incan/Mayan civilizations, because if they didn’t teach you the more recent history and atrocities of various governments, they sure didn’t bother with ancient civ. Of course, there was also Mao, Pol Pot, the Kims in Korea.
Don’t think any of this can’t happen here.
It already has happened here. Just consider the near extermination of the indigenous population of North America. Then, of course, there was slavery. For the purposes of international and historic comparison, the farms that employed slaves could be called slave labor camps instead of plantations.
So was the government stupid or smart by implementing these policies?
I guess it depends on your viewpoint.
So was the government stupid or smart by implementing these policies?
Only the people not killed by Mao etc. get to ponder that question.
In which of those societies did they have 300 million plus guns in the hands of the citizenry?
This is a Drudge Report link (Drudge also posts social commentary links when he’s not too busy fear mongering and “rallying the base” into electing candidates purchased by Sheldon Adelson) about teaching “white privilege” in taxpayer funded public schools:
http://eagnews.org/school-districts-spending-millions-on-white-privilege-training-for-employees
You’re wrong about that one. This sort of news is certainly about fear mongering and rallying the base.
What part of “teaching white privilege in taxpayer funded public schools” do you fail to understand, MikeyMite?
Or is it my refusal to only rally one base at a time that confuses you?
It’s all pretty easy to understand. The point is that the story serves to rally the same base that you’re always talking about.
I understand these migrants pay some serious coin to the smugglers to get them across the Med. The EU/UN could figure out the average going rate and set one slightly below the smugglers’ rate, process these people in their home countries, collect the fees and load ‘em onto planes and cruise ships, maybe serve a nutritious meal on the way. Bring ‘em directly to their EU vassal state of choice, which I understand include England, Germany, Sweden, etc.
They don’t much care for Greece or Italy, but then again, the Pope seems to have a great deal of sympathy for them, so I highly recommend parceling out a certain number to be cared for at the Vatican. All those marble halls and plazas and such have LOTS of space. Be a shame to let all those baptismal fonts go to waste.
The EU/UN could figure out the average going rate and set one slightly below the smugglers’ rate, process these people in their home countries, collect the fees and load ‘em onto planes and cruise ships, maybe serve a nutritious meal on the way.
Some of this is governed by refugee treaties that date back to shortly after WW2. Part of processing the people involves determining whether they’re refugees or just people looking for a higher standard of living. If they are legitimate refugees, it’s usually not possible for them to be processed in their home countries.
If they are legitimate refugees, it’s usually not possible for them to be processed in their home countries.
Legitimate refugees= good liars.
More water restrictions in CA. How long before deteriorating quality of life there starts hitting the housing market?
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-water-regulations-20150504-story.html#page=1
most of the die hard californian’s would live in a tent before ever leaving the state.
That’s all they can afford. It seems most of the population of CA don’t have two dimes to rub together.
I don’t understand some people. There are so many prettier places with water in god’s green earth. No reason to cling to this FUBAR state.
I tend to agree with you, but have you been there? I travel there for business and it really bites to leave mid-60s and sunny and return to mid-40s and rainy (COLD - the high humidity sucks the heat right out of you) at home.
We’re all going to die someday. You might as well enjoy the weather before it happens.
Yes I have lived in Cali. There are so many places all over the world with better weather and scenery. For me personally SF and No Cal is too cold. Who wants to wear a light jacket or sweater in the middle of summer? Seriously?
I think that those cold summers pretty much confined to the city of San Francisco itself. If you head down the peninsula towards Santa Clara country, it warms up quite a bit. Of course, then you’re in high density suburbia, never far from a freeway.
“I think that those cold summers pretty much confined to the city of San Francisco itself.”
Maybe out in the Avenues. Heck, North Beach has beautiful winter days. The financial district is loaded with trim at lunch time, unbuttoning, trying to get some vitamin B.
‘most of the die hard californian’s would live in a tent’
Years ago after an HBB meetup in Pasadena, I was killing time walking around and went into a Whole Foods. At one point near the check-out, some kind of alarm went off. Almost everybody put their hands over their ears and bent over in anguish, even running out the door. It wasn’t that loud, and I thought at the time, ‘man these people are soft.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/style/los-angeles-and-its-booming-creative-class-lures-new-yorkers.html
I really like that article, hope Giuliano and Bloomberg are happy with what they created, a soulless playground for billionaires.
They should rname it ‘McYork’ now.
Nuevo York?
I really like that article, hope Giuliano and Bloomberg are happy with what they created, a soulless playground for billionaires.
A big part of what you’re referring to is the quite large reduction in crime that occurred during the Giuliani years.
‘man these people are soft.’
Limpwristed, volvo driving sneaker wearing fools.
Limpwristed, volvo driving sneaker wearing fools.
Sandals and socks.
I bet you look like a real beaut in sandals and socks Dan.
Volvos are pretty expensive, aren’t they?
Not me Ha sorry. But having spent time there I have seen it. I have also seen people walking around naked around Berkley and they were not the specimens that you wanted to see naked.
The Twitter feed spoof account for Los Feliz Day Care is quite funny and will keep you up to date on all the latest trends of the Whole Foods crowd.
If Volvos are expensive then you’re in the wrong business.
A poorly engineered waste of metal that appeals to empty pocketed snobs? Yes.
I once saw a Volvo owner go into Crater Rage® after they got the estimate for repairs POST warranty. LOL.
Don’t they have a Cross Country model? Ironic considering they can’t make it across town.
“…..people are soft.”
It’s nation-wide. I’m seeing waaay to many guys with “man-purses” (errr, “satchels”) lately.
If Volvos are expensive then you’re in the wrong business.
I could afford if I wanted to own an expensive car. But the point is that they’re more expensive than other makes.
Send your money to China, everyone else is.
Except the Great Exodus of Chinese embezzlers fleeing the country and parking their ill-gotten loot in California real estate before the next Chinese revolution.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/volvo-prepares-send-made-china-cars-us-30522290
They are making millionaires in China faster than they can leave. But California and New York will be seeing more I am sure.
It wasn’t that loud, and I thought at the time, ‘man these people are soft.’
+1 And thin-skinned too!
Can you imagine not being able to afford to buy water?
California Most Impoverish State In The US
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_poverty_rate
OL.I.GAR. CHY
Most people cant pronounce it. STUDY IT!
CRAY-TORE
Most people experience it when they pay a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset like a house.
Rancho Cucamonga, CA List Prices Submerge 6% YoY; Sellers Take Losses On Housing
http://www.movoto.com/rancho-cucamonga-ca/market-trends/
You rang?
Wrong again HA.
http://www.laweekly.com/news/california-has-the-most-ultra-wealthy-people-in-america-5240051
Uh, you should read the article:
‘Yet another report has found that California is America’s wealthiest state. In this case, researcher firm Wealth-X, with the help of big bank UBS, concluded that the Golden State is home to more “ultra high net worth” individuals than any other state in the union.’
‘What’s bizarre, of course, is that California is also the poorest state in America, according to the fairly recent U.S. Census supplemental poverty measure.’
‘The U.S. Census found that, when accounting for cost of living (which includes our astronomical home prices and rents), poverty is highest in the Golden State. By that supplemental measure nearly 1 in 4 of us (23.8 percent) are poor.’
‘Yeah, this is turning into a banana Republic, a place of gross wealth and survival-mode despair, with not much in between.’
Allow me…
From your article;
“‘What’s bizarre, of course, is that California is also the poorest state in America,”
http://www.laweekly.com/news/california-has-the-most-ultra-wealthy-people-in-america-5240051
Broke @ss Loosers.
I did read it. Perhaps if you would both think it through you would realize that California can be both the wealthiest and poorest state at the same time. They are not contradictory nor exclusive. As HA would say, THINK.
Want to start a business? Come to California. No. 1 state in venture capital by far: “California has nearly 60 percent of all U.S. venture capital investment, making it the No. 1 state in the nation.”
It’s definitely weird that such an anti-business state would be No. 1 in venture capital funding. Go figure!
And the poorest most impoverished state in the US.
It’s definitely weird that such an anti-business state would be No. 1
As a lifelong Californian I’ll just say that the “anti-business” tag is an oversimplification. In some ways business is overregulated and stifled; in other ways, it is welcome and is provided lots of incentives. It’s very complex and varies tremendously from location to location, from industry to industry.
Business succeeds in Calif., I think, because so much wealth is concentrated here, with a large customer base, that enough money is made to overcome whatever obstacles the gov’t throws in its way.
A moribund over regulated economic hell hole…. but it’s a different kind of hell hole.
Gotcha.
‘Want to start a business?’
I have been in business in the bay area in a way. I was a controller for a dotcom in Austin, and the bosses just had to have a SF office. It was a disaster.
Venture capital from California now investing in China:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/VC-fund-for-Chinese-maker-of-drones/shdaily.shtml
“It’s definitely weird that such an anti-business state would be No. 1 in venture capital funding. Go figure!”
“Anti-business” is sometimes defined as “pro-employee”.
A pretty big reason why companies are started in CA are the labor laws here that protect the employees with respect to entrepreneurial endeavors.
In many states, if you want to start a company, even only to marginally compete with your former employer, you may be barred from doing so based on non-compete provisions in employment agreements, which are perfectly legal in many states.
In CA, such non-compete provisions are generally not enforceable.
broke @ssed indebted flunkies.
“Business succeeds in Calif., I think, because so much wealth is concentrated here, with a large customer base, that enough money is made to overcome whatever obstacles the gov’t throws in its way.”
Technology is creeping into everything regardless of location. It is next to impossible to find decent help in one-string banjo country; ignorance, obesity and religion abound. Many businesses must locate where the gene pool has variety.
“Anti-business” is sometimes defined as “pro-employee”.
Maybe by liberals who never opened an economics textbook.
Anti-business policies send businesses to states with more favorable policies, along with the jobs they provide. Check out California versus Texas over the past few years for a recent example.
…how about just finding it??!?!
Worst bird flu outbreak in US history. Maybe this will force some long overdue attention to factory farming and its larger impacts on the food chain and food security.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/05/us-health-birdflu-funds-exclusive-idUSKBN0NQ1VZ20150505
“overdue attention to factory farming”
That’s commie talk.
Raising birds under those conditions is inhumane and unsafe. Maybe it’s time the sheeple took notice and put food security and safety over maximum profits for agribusinesses (that happen to be big donors for the Republicrats).
Ray, Ray, Ray……
AND the Democrats!! - They are all the same - all about power - money is a by product of power. Red and blue merge into purple…don’t forget that.
I’d venture to say my disdain for Wall Street’s Republicrat duopoly is fairly well known in here.
I would agree with your sentiments.
It’s not commie, as long as the “right” people own it.
Is all a game of sentiment.
Get ready for another wave of Democrat-on-Arrival Central Americans. Comrad Pelosi’s permanent Democrat Supermajority draws ever closer.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/6/el-salvador-gangs-target-police-after-failed-truce.html
But they will raise free range chickens in their backyards.
I have grown to really appreciate the term “refinance”.
It used to be, once upon a time, that the favorite way for a schmuck to get out of debt was for the schmuck to pay back what he owed. This worked okay for me but it limited me to taking just a one-time hit at the fool.
But now the idea of paying back a debt takes a back seat to the idea of refinancing the debt, and this refinancing action allows me to take another hit at the schmuck. And maybe another hit somewhere down the line. And each time I get to take a hit I get to extract a fee.
People are smart.
If a puke were to tell his ignorant puke friends that he was going to “borrow his way out of debt” then his ignorant puke friends would most likely consider his to be a fool.
But if this puke were to instead use the term “refinance”, as in “refinance his debts” then his ignorant pukes friend would most like consider him to be a … a financial genius.
Welcome to IDIOCRACY. If you think the sheeple are foolish with money, you should see the way they vote.
you are evil!
Scdave, gave me that title and I am willing to defend it.
Flashback 1976: Scientists Blamed California Drought On Global Cooling
Michael Bastasch
3:29 PM 05/04/2015
California was stuck in a deep drought during Gov. Jerry Brown’s first term, much like the one the state is currently going through. The only difference is that global cooling, not warming, was blamed for causing drought in the late 1970s.
The Times reported that climatologists “believe that the climate has moved into a cooling cycle, which means highly erratic weather for decades to come.” Scientists worried that the world’s population had gotten so high that minor “shifts in climate could be catastrophic.”
“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” Watt said. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
But climate science has changed since the 1970s, and droughts are no longer blamed on global cooling. Instead, some climate scientists and environmentalists blame droughts on global warming — which they say is the result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions.
California’s Gov. Brown, who is serving out his fourth term, is once again presiding over a state mired in drought. Brown’s response to todays drought is almost identical to policies he pushed in the 1970s. During the 1970s, Brown said “this is an era of limits and there are very hard choices to make.”
dailycaller.com/…/ - 89k -
Hillary, the self-described champion of the middle class, is being coy about revealing her oligarch backers and campaign bundlers. Go figure.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/05/hillary-clinton-bundler-disclosure-campaign-finance
On the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton has been pushing hard to overhaul of the country’s broken campaign finance system. “We need to fix our dysfunctional political system and get unaccounted money out of it, once and for all, even if that takes a constitutional amendment,” Clinton said during one of her first official speeches in Iowa last month.
Clinton’s campaign finance rhetoric appears to be aimed at super PACs, the quasi-independent organizations that bolster campaigns by buying ads. But when it comes to the major funders behind her own presidential campaign, the Democratic front-runner has yet to answer questions about how transparent she’s willing to be. When Mother Jones questioned the Clinton camp about whether it will disclose the names and fundraising totals of the key supporters—known as “bundlers”—who raise vast sums of cash, a spokesperson declined to provide an answer, saying only that the campaign was still figuring out its plans.
Repost: Wall Street “can’t lose” with Jeb or Hillary
http://nypost.com/2015/02/08/wall-streets-no-lose-view-of-2016/
And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links
HillaryJeb is the same candidate: a neo-con plutocrat crony-capitalist. What’s not for Wall Street to love?
Verbal diarrhea to placate the wretched refuse in general, and the Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders crowd in particular.
The “people that matter” know whose corner she is in.
When Mother Jones questioned the Clinton camp about whether it will disclose the names and fundraising totals of the key supporters—known as “bundlers”—who raise vast sums of cash, a spokesperson declined to provide an answer, saying only that the campaign was still figuring out its plans.
Is anyone here familiar with this law? I thought that names of the donors had to be disclosed. Is the issue that the names of the bundlers aren’t disclosed?
Read the story again, it is not the donors but the bundlers that are not being disclosed.
Maybe federal law enforcement isn’t the best place to hire based on affirmative action “goals” (cough quotas cough) instead of actual qualifications.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/fbi-agent-arrested-bizarre-acts-cia-gate-article-1.2211044?ref=Outbrain&ADLocation=footer&ADPosition=2
If you like your oligarchy, you can keep your oligarchy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102650475
I guess they figure she will keep the printing presses going?
The survey, which polls 750 Americans with a net worth of $1 million or more, found that 53 percent of millionaires would vote for the Democratic ex-Secretary of State, compared with 47 percent for the GOP presidential hopeful, in a hypothetical general-election match-up.
The real oligarchs consider mere millionaires to be losers.
Sounds like Goldman has issued its marching orders to its Fed minions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/11585173/Dollar-tantrum-screams-louder-than-Edvard-Munch-says-Goldman-Sachs.html
“Investment banking giant says investors should buy the greenback despite recent raft of weak US economics data”
Is this a sign that it is time to dump your dollars and dump ‘em fast?
Goldman has a long and sordid history of saying one thing to its retail muppet “clients” and then secretly betting against them. When the Fed’s debasement of the dollar catches up to us, you’d better be holding tangible goods because no one is going to want to part with them for Bernanke Bux.
True dat.
That’s right. Remember the “shitty (mortgage) assets” incident a few years back, for instance?
Tustin, CA List Prices Plunge 7% YoY; Housing Speculators Hit With Losses
http://www.movoto.com/tustin-ca/market-trends/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102653509
Yes Apple, you can borrow money at effectively zero to buy back your stock and pay dividends. But you will be buying back stock that will be a depreciating asset. And when all prices collapse 30%, that 0% nominal interest rate you are paying will be 43% in real terms.
The level of blind ignorance in today’s debt markets make the mortgage industry of the early 2000s look downright savvy.
Meanwhile the lack of investment in plant and equipment plus the poor quality of the new workers is leading to higher labor costs:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/productivity-fell-in-first-quarter-as-u-s-labor-costs-climbed
Now Dan….
Do you really believe wages are going to double or triple to meet grossly inflated prices of everything?
Of course you don’t.
Prices will continue falling until they meet wages.
Insightful, Dan. I very much agree with you that prices mean little when it comes to assessing levels of inflation. It is all about wages. Please be sure to let me know when real wages rise in a meaningful way.
Follow the money:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/05/fighting-back-against-the-double-standard-on-climate-funding-at-harvard/
Cover your eyes PB because oil is up two dollars a barrel just today. The crude oil tanks are emptying not overfilling.
Dead.Cat.Bounce.
And remember…. Crude inventories and production is at record highs and demand is cratering.
Lower prices Dan. Lower prices.
You are confusing an oil price rally with a dollar sell-off, an easy mistake to make.
ft dot com
Markets
Oil rally propelled by dollar sell-off
2 days ago
The rally in oil has less to do with short-covering and more to do with the sudden decline in the dollar. That, according to analysts with Morgan Stanley.
While several analysts have attributed the 24 per cent advance in international oil prices over the past seven weeks to short-covering by investors, Adam Longson, an analyst with Morgan Stanley, says the rally has more to do with technical factors than supply-demand dynamics.
Mr Longson points to the movement in the dollar, which has weakened substantially against the euro since reaching a high in March.
The recent pullback in the greenback has buoyed oil, which trades in the US dollar. Mr Longson, adds:
After falling nearly 50 per cent last year, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has advanced 42 per cent since its January low and is up 16 per cent so far this year to $66.39 a barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the US oil standard, has climbed 32 per cent since its March low and is up more than 10 per cent so far this year to $58.97 a barrel.
The view from Mr Longson is in contrast to analysts who have instead pointed to the notable decline in Brent and WTI shorts over the past four weeks. That view was triggered by a plateau in US crude production, as the number of rigs drilling for oil has fallen to their lowest level since 2010. That has propelled the view that supply and demand for oil will be roughly balanced in the second half of the year.
There has also been a growing long bias. “Brent speculative longs are back above all-time highs and WTI longs have grown as well,” Mr Longson, said.
…
“After falling nearly 50 per cent last year, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has advanced 42 per cent since its January low and is up 16 per cent so far this year to $66.39 a barrel.”
Here is a little math lesson: A 42 percent gain after a 50 percent drop adds up to a net drop of 29 percent:
(0.50*1.42-1) X 100% = -29%.
You are confusing an oil price rally with a dollar sell-off, an easy mistake to make.
So did you confuse a dollar spike with an oil sell-off, an easy mistake to make and one I pointed out at the time and you dismissed? Just trying to keep the same standard here.
I pointed out at the time of the oil decline that half of the oil decline was due to the higher dollar. Also, while the dollar may be down today it is not off anything around 3% which is what oil is up.
I recall you were also confused on the dollar spike, suggesting the president was responsible. The independent Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy in the U.S., not the executive branch.
At any rate, oil fundamentals remain in the toilet, so I wouldn’t get overly excited about a short covering rally if I were you (unless you are making money off it!).
I recall you were also confused on the dollar spike, suggesting the president was responsible
No doubt he was responsible either through commission as I believe as part of a war on Putin using oil prices or through omission since he did nothing to stop the rise. It is the treasury that has historically sets the dollar policy. He controls the treasury. Due to the dollar’s rise in large part we had negative growth in the first quarter by most estimates so he owns that.
He does not understand the economics of shale oil or really the lack of economics, as long as it takes $80 or more a barrel to produce for a lot of the production, oil production will fall at these prices. Oil shale production is over five million barrels a day in this country but it must constantly be replaced with new wells and that cannot happen without an adequate price. Five million barrels is an order of magnitude over what Iran could additionally produce, so oil is going up, reasonable minds can argue whether it will be $75 or $80 by December but anyone thinking it can go back into the 30s is smoking crack.
‘anyone thinking it can go back into the 30s is smoking crack’
But. But, you were saying not that long ago that the frackers were being ruined by Obama.
BTW, it can go back to 30. It can go to 15. I’ve seen it go to 8.
“But, you were saying not that long ago that the frackers were being ruined by Obama.”
Still saying it, any price set by the government overtly or covertly that is below the cost of production will ruin an industry.
“reasonable minds can argue whether it will be $75 or $80 by December but anyone thinking it can go back into the 30s is smoking crack.”
And in the 20-$30 range by next March.
What’s your point Dan?
Opinion: Oil in the $30s? It may happen as a ‘short squeeze’ ends
Published: May 6, 2015 5:45 a.m. ET
Crude has soared 40% from its low this year, but weaker demand and high production might lead to another leg down
By Howard Gold
Columnist
It’s springtime, and the birds are singing, the trees and flowers are blooming, and oil prices are soaring.
On Tuesday, ICE Brent crude hit its 2015 high near $68 a barrel. It’s been a remarkable comeback: Brent rallied 21% in April alone, its strongest month since 2009, and it’s gained almost 40% from its January low just above $49.
The rally has been so powerful that people who called for much lower oil prices earlier this year have been drowned out by a chorus of bulls who say the worst is over for crude.
Not so fast. Sharp countertrend rallies like this are common in extended bear markets. The oversupply that caused crude to tank has eased a little, but Saudi Arabia’s price war against Russia and U.S. shale-oil producers continues.
In fact, despite some slightly improved fundamentals, this rally was likely a reaction to overcrowded hedges against lower oil prices and near-unanimity on the strength of the dollar. Those trades have unwound sharply, so the consensus appears to have swung 180 degrees in the opposite direction.
That’s happening just as gasoline prices may be hitting their seasonal highs and weeks before oil prices usually peak. Too much complacency may surprise the bulls now as much as it shocked the bears back in March.
In short, for those who’ve profited from this rally, it may be a good time to cash in some chips, and there are signs that’s happening: Investors and traders “pulled $672 million from oil ETFs [last] month as of April 29, the biggest outflow in four years,” Bloomberg reported.
Stephen Schork, editor of Villanova, Pa.-based “The Schork Report,” which analyzes energy cash and derivatives markets for professional investors, said the move in oil prices is based on technical and trading factors tied mostly to the strength of the U.S. dollar.
“There is a very strong link between the dollar and crude oil prices. They’re usually in perfect synchronization,” he explained.
Late last year it was received wisdom that because the U.S. Federal Reserve was preparing to raise short-term interest rates just as the European Central Bank was starting extraordinary bond-buying, or “quantitative easing,” owning the dollar (and shorting the euro) was a no-brainer.
Within months, the U.S. dollar index soared from a 52-week low around 78 to top 100 in March. But since then, it’s fallen to 95 or below. That’s just about the period when oil rallied.
…
BINGO
Currency related price adjustments.
Massive excess global crude inventory in storage, record high production, falling demand.
And the best part? falling prices which accelerates the economy.
The crude oil tanks are emptying not overfilling.
Does this signal a peak in oil prices, or are speculators locking in a few gains, or is the cost of storage so expensive that they have to sell off a little of it to fund storing the remainder until a peak is reached?
What it really means is the EIAs “estimates” of U.S. production are widely optimistic. We have begun to draw crude oil to meet the demand for products. You also see evidence that the EIA is overestimating production by the plunge of shipments of oil by both truck and rail. I cannot wait to see in about a week NDs actual production figures.
You see evidence that China is overstating its GDP numbers by the plunge in the prices of oil and other primary inputs to production in a manufacturing / construction based economy.
You know the fossil fuel Climate Deniers are waging a losing battle when business decides climate change is real and they start moving their money accordingly. The smart money knows the real story… coal is dead, oil is slowly fading, solar is soaring.
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/05/04/fund-managers-edging-away-from-fossil-fuels/
solar=FAIL
OK, I’ll play your game.
solar=EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
fossil fuel=DECLINING MARKET SHARE
solar doesn’t work my friend.
10,000 megawatts of electricity streaming through California’s grid extracted from our abundant sunshine say otherwise…
And it still costs more than conventional generation.
Good luck getting off the ground with those fuselage mounted solar panels.
FAIL
I concur on the solar aircraft. Pretty much a useless novelty. I’m not gonna buy a ticket on a solar airline if it only goes 43 mph, even if it is the righteous thing to do.
Airplanes aren’t a useless novelty. solar is.
Yep, and a few pounds of fissionable material couldn’t possibly level a city. Solar arrays are getting cheaper and more efficient by the day. Who knows how much more efficient they’ll be twenty years from now?
Hey all of you Solar Supporters: do some research on how much WATER these commercial-size solar farms require.
Then get back to us.
Oh, and the beams from the solar concentrators burn the birds right out of the air too.
the fear of alternative energy is mind blowing!!
live and let live!! stop trying to take away my right to use solar.
No fear, just facts.
You should check them out; I have.
No water = no commercial solar.
Check into it.
no water = no life
I read that you cant have solar with out oxygen.
I’m getting really really bored with the “debate” over recorded temperatures and models and sea level predictions.
Species extinctions are observable and objective, when they’re gone they’re f*ing gone, and they’re not coming back.
Regards,
Single occupant, two vehicle household
We will never get the dinosaurs back. Damn you, Global Warming!
Three words - genetically reversed chickens.
Single occupant, two vehicle household
Same here. “Species extinctions are observable and objective”, the Truman Democrat is as dead as the carrier pigeon so you are right. However, it is wind power and not fossil fuels that are killing endangered species in large numbers.
4 rides, 2 big hogging diesels. The coolest part? I wired in smoke switches in the diesels. I hit the switch, computer dumps fuel in cylinders and I do some crop dusting in rush hour traffic.
Rollin coal - gotta love it!!
That’s right…. puking soot from Virginia to Maine.
Perfect example of people who are out of the gene pool for a reason.
no one thinks you are cool, just a loser, a born loser with nothing to live for.
a born loser with nothing to live for
He’ll always have Cheetos.
awwww…. Poor debt-donkey’s angry.
RTB, climate change will get your attention when your beloved ski slopes turn to rocks.
I’ve got all you guys beat.
One driver. Rental apartment.
Six cars, four of which are running. One truck.
If it happens it will be the normal 2 degrees Celsius rise that is needed to make this a normal interglacial period. Spending trillions will not prevent it.
normal interglacial period
LOL. There’s nothing normal about a 55% rise in CO2 in a hundred years. If the oil guys would just recapture and sequester the CO2 they’ve been spewing, we wouldn’t have these climate problems.
The world survived co2 levels 20 times today so it will survive 400 ppm, the point is the temperature, all the grim results are based on a rise in temperature which we are not seeing in a meaningful way. We have an interglacial period about every hundred thousand years that last about ten thousand years and we go back into an ice age. We are getting toward the end of this interglacial and we are still 2 degrees Celsius below the norm. Who stole our warming?
If one volcano blast can reduce global temperatures for years, what’s so radical about thinking that non-stop pollution can do the same thing over the span of decades? Oh yeah, sunspots.
Co2 is not pollution it is a very beneficial gas.
No Co2, no photosynthesis, which would mean no primary sources of food at the base of the food chain.
I am the last generation of skiers in North America. But after the resorts are all closed, I’ll still be skiing, just have to “earn the turns” to do it in the backcountry. As seen here from last Saturday, Grays Peak at left, Torreys Peak at right, 14,270′ and 14,267′ respectively:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150502_083139-OtVhAUPc.jpg
P.S. people with mortgages do not get to ski here
Nice shot. If I remember right, I think Colo’s snow levels got a big boost from the one big warm rain storm that Calif got; when it hit the Sierras the sno levels were super high but by the time the front got to the Rockies it cooled enough to dump snow there.
I am the last generation of skiers in North America. It saddens me to even think of that…
We are loving all the rain we are getting in New Mexico is that due to global warming too?
Just look at the coal stocks (BTU) under $5 today, was $72 4 yrs ago.
I still dont understand why we export oil. Why not keep it all for ourselves.
Because the oil companies make more money by shipping oil overseas and creating shortages here. It’s called the free market.
Its called “crony capitalism.” Take away all the oil subsidies and stop spending $2 trillion on a war for oil, then it is the free market.
Maybe you were being sarcastic.
Yes I was.
Got Solendra?
I love the talk about oil subsidies which are really the same tax breaks that all corporations get. Oil companies are little more than tax collectors for big government, if you look at their tax rates and the percentage at the pump that goes to government. Meanwhile, green companies would all be dead without government subsidies and those subsidies for 1% of the energy we use is more than the tax breaks that oil companies receive while provided well north of 50% of our energy. Despite this the MSNBC crowd calls it crony capitalism, despite the real crony capitalism being the green industry. BTW, since alternative energy is a technology and fossil fuels are a resource, I do expect the cost lines to cross one day. However, the green industry wants money right now since they have failed to make their industry cost competitive right now or in the near future. They want the taxpayers to bail them out. There is no real environmental urgency requiring this bail-out so the green industry has fabricated one and called it AGW.
25 Years After Exxon Valdez Oil Spill, Company Still Hasn’t Paid For Long-Term Environmental Damages.
How much money does the U.S. government provide to support the oil, gas and coal industries?
In the United States, credible estimates of annual fossil fuel subsidies range from $10 billion to $52 billion annually yet these don’t even include costs borne by taxpayers related to the climate, local environmental, and health impacts of the fossil fuel industry. As of July 2014, Oil Change International estimates U.S. fossil fuel subsidies at $37.5 billion annually, including $21 billion in production and exploration subsidies.
Compare that to the amount of taxes they pay and despite the tax breaks, you will see that they net north of $100 billion in taxes. The green industry pays virtually nothing and receives similar tax breaks and subsidies.
If the Fed chair opines that stock valuations are “quite high”, is it time to dump stocks as quickly as possible?
U.S. stocks falter as Yellen warns of valuation risks
Published: May 6, 2015 10:49 a.m. ET
Technology stocks sell off
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen
By Anora Mahmudova
Reporter
Sara Sjolin
Markets reporter
U.S. stocks erased opening gains and edged lower on Wednesday, building on steep losses from the previous session, as Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen remarked that stock values are high at an event in the morning.
Traders already had been fretting after a lower-than-forecast ADP employment raised nervousness among investors ahead of the more closely followed nonfarm payrolls report slated for Friday.
Implied volatility on the S&P 500, as measured by the CBOE Volatility index — a measure of investor nervousness—jumped above 15, suggesting investors are getting jittery.
The S&P 500 (SPX, -0.32%) fell 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,079 with nine of its 10 main sectors trading lower. The energy sector was the only bright spot following a jump in oil prices. Technology stocks continued to pull back.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -0.41%) is down more than 100 points, or 0.6%, to 17,814. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -0.30%) lost 24 points, or 0.5%, to 4,916.
Yellen’s comments came at a panel discussion Wednesday with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde and didn’t help lift investors’ spirits.
Uri Landesman, president at Platinum Partners, said he agreed with Janet Yellen’s assertion that stocks are expensive.
“Stocks prices have been propped up because of lack of alternatives and that is not a good reason to buy stocks and eventually unsustainable.”
“While the long-term momentum is still positive, people are beginning to get nervous. A correction at this point would be welcome,” Landesman said.
…
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12 comments
A Rock
1 hour ago
This article does a poor job at reporting how Yellen qualified her comments about risk being under control. Journos here are more interested in creating a sensation on the odd-chance that eventually they may be right and they can claim we told you so.
It’s an opinion piece not journalism. B/S in other words
George Smith
1 hour ago
“Market Falters?” Really? The market is rallying following Yellen’s proclamation because she doesn’t know what she is talking about.
Bret Smith
1 hour ago
Uh oh, Old Yeller just spoke and thinks stock valuations are too high. But is she all “bull”? We are still at an EMERGENCY ZERO interest rate almost 7 years now!! There has been plenty of gibberish before. Action speak louder than words Old Yeller. Sorry, moving from 0% to .25% is a joke.
Tim Powers
1 hour ago
@Bret Smith I think her comments are giving people the heads up they are supposed to heed. Action is coming, and this is part of the FED’s way of “communicating” to help ease the pain everybody has been worrying about.
The fact she would make the statement now I believe coincides with the FED realizing they are out of bullets and need to start raising rates to have wiggle room later. If in fact they go ahead with rate increases and the market tanks, don’t blame them, since she gave her oh so subtle heads up.
I like Zhedge’s headline regarding the markets yesterday, May 5:
“Sinko No Buyo”
Treasury yields edge higher as European bond selloff overshadows weak ADP
Published: May 6, 2015 11:30 a.m. ET
By Ellie Ismailidou
Markets reporter
Treasury yields edged higher on Wednesday, pushing prices down, after a weak employment report mitigated the momentum of this week’s selloff.
But overall, the continuing massive selloff in the European bonds outweighed the effect of weak U.S. data, driving Treasury yields higher.
Payrolls processor ADP said Wednesday that for the first time in about two years, the U.S. created fewer than 200,000 private-sector jobs for two months straight.
The weak number prompted a bout of buying in the Treasury market, as investors are preparing for the release of April’s official jobs report expected on Friday.
“ADP is something to pay attention to but the real market mover is the official jobs report,” said Chris Keith, portfolio manager at Newton, Mass.-based Adviser Investments.
Also conducive to Wednesday’s falling price action was a statement by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen that there could be a sharp jump in long-term rates when the Fed raises key interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Yellen also warned that stock values may be too high.
…
Since investors are dumping stocks, it follows beyond a doubt that a rally is right around the corner, right? (Of course, nonstop daily new highs also evidently indicate a rally in progress.)
In short, the stock market always goes up, so back up the truck and buy the dip!
Don’t worry about rising rates. We’ve learned from the past three and a half decades of market experience that long-term interest rates always go down, and bond and stock prices always go up.
Why investor flight out of stock funds may signal a rally
Published: May 6, 2015 1:28 p.m. ET
Sundial Capital Research
By Victor Reklaitis
Markets writer
Investors pulled money out of the big stock ETFs last month, but that might be a sign of a rally ahead, suggests Sundial Capital Research.
April featured a net outflow of more than $16 billion from the “big four” ETFs, meaning the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, -0.84%) the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ, -1.15%) the Dow ETF (DIA, -0.81%) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM, -0.40%) Sundial’s president, Jason Goepfert, said in a note Tuesday.
What happened at other times when that monthly outflow totaled more than about $15 billion?
“Going back a decade, there were eight months with an outflow that large, and a month later SPY was higher every time, averaging +4.2%,” the note said. The chart above shows the SPY’s moves and fund flows.
…
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Terry Ranger
13 minutes ago
So investors are selling out of ETF funds so they can watch as ETF’s rally ? Interesting.
Everything signals a rally, PB. EVERYTHING!
Oil’s march northward today. Up to $61.
Told ya.
Leave it to the computerized, data-tracking marketing pukes to continue sending reminders that you are getting closer to watching the grass grow from the wrong side of the turf line…….
When I turned 50, the AARP stuff started showing up in the mail.
Next…….stiffy pills
Then the supplemental health insurance.
Last year, hearing aids, custom bathtubs with entry doors.
Yesterday……..burial plots.
On one hand, the medical/insurance/drug industrial complex is disturbed by my “early stroke or heart attack instead of living in a cardboard box just to pay medical bills” retirement plan.
On the other, it seems like others are trying to push me in the hole………
“Logan’s Run” here we come?
“THX1138″ is what I’m betting on. In fact, in a lot of ways, we are already there.
As I recall, one of the TV channels featured the robo-cops beating the crap out of prisoners on live TV. 24/7/365.
Dont forget the adult diapers.
I asked my daughters which one of them was going to help me change my diapers, if/when the time came.
Got a unanimous “EFF THAT!”
I’m taking that as a “no”.
Just don’t change it. It will fall off eventually. Then pull another on.
I’m taking that as a “no”.
It “depends”. However, if your estate is big enough they may be willing to put up with a few pis@y jobs.
I’d rather be euthanized than get to that point.
You can go with Obamacare’s bronze plan.
Here is your future U.S. housing demand:
Millennial View: Catherine Rampell — A new baby bust
Posted May. 6, 2015 at 2:01 AM
First comes love, then comes marriage, then comes baby in the baby carriage.
These days, with the proliferation of niche dating apps and sexting platforms, there’s no shortage of innovations to help secure the first milestone in that sequence. But while romance may still blossom, the other two signposts seem to be in short supply. And the dearth of the last one — childbearing — may have ominous consequences for the economy.
A report released last week by the Urban Institute found that millennial women are reproducing at the slowest pace of any generation in U.S. history. Childbearing fell steeply in the years immediately following the Great Recession, with birthrates among women in their 20s declining more than 15 percent between 2007 and 2012.
This shouldn’t be surprising. Previous periods of financial turmoil have encouraged women to, at the very least, delay childbearing. Such delays can also lead to permanently lower fertility rates, meaning that women not only postpone having children for a few years while the economy is rocky but never “catch up” by having additional kids later on.
The Great Depression led to a great baby bust. The cohort of women who were born in 1909 — and therefore turned 21 in 1930 — had the highest share of childless women of any group we’ve been able to track through the end of their reproductive years, according to Kenneth M. Johnson, a sociology professor and demographer at the University of New Hampshire. About 22 percent of this cohort never had a baby, nearly twice the rate of the generation that reached its 20s during the height of postwar prosperity (aka the baby boom).
Johnson estimates that roughly 500,000 fewer babies are now being born per year than would have been the case had the higher fertility rates of the mid-2000s continued. He says it’s too soon to say whether millennial women will take after the lastingly lower fertility rates of their Great Depression-era predecessors or whether they’ve simply put off childbearing temporarily while they get their finances, careers and educations in order.
Fertility decisions certainly are affected by a lot of factors besides the economy, including cultural norms and access to birth control. But while declining birthrates have spawned lots of think pieces about the selfie-generation being anti-procreation, survey data suggest that young Americans’ desires to have children remain strong.
In 2013, Gallup found that only about 6 percent of American adults age 18 to 40 neither have kids nor want them, virtually the same as the share a decade earlier. And, somewhat unexpectedly, younger Americans seem to prefer slightly bigger families than do their older counterparts. Asked to name “the ideal number of children for a family to have,” Americans under 30 gave an average response of 2.7. That’s higher than any other age group and much greater than the country’s total fertility rate of fewer than 1.9 children per woman.
On one level, lower birthrates might be worth celebrating. Perhaps today’s young women are behaving more “responsibly” by putting off their procreative desires, especially if they’re not yet fully ready to have children. One important reason that childbearing fell in the years following the Great Recession is that unmarried women had fewer kids. This factor was responsible for the vast majority of the decline in birthrates for young African-American and Hispanic women. Given that children of single parents tend to experience higher rates of poverty, this trend seems like a good thing.
But for economic reasons — including cultivating the next generation of Americans to work and pay for the benefits of their many, many elders — we still need more babies.
Preferably, these will be babies born within wedlock, if for no other reason than the greater financial stability usually associated with having two married parents. Unfortunately, however, another key driver of lower birthrates — especially among non-Hispanic whites — is that young people are putting off marriage, too. The key force behind the decline in marriage, as with childbearing, seems to be finances, not dramatic changes in aspirations for marital bliss. As a recent Pew report showed, a plurality of never-married Americans age 25 to 34 say the main reason they haven’t tied the knot is that they aren’t yet “financially prepared” to do so.
…
I read that. The article mentions nothing about how the overreach of feminism has alienated men from ever getting married. Or that 50% of marriages end in divorce, and 70% of those divorces are initiated by women.
The survey numbers don’t lie. And no amount of shaming is gonna bring the slaves back on the plantation. Read “Men On Strike” by Dr. Helen Smith for a good summary of why this demographic tipping point is happening.
Which part of feminism caused these problems?
The nut crushing part.
In the Red Pill / MGTOW area of the Internets, MikeyMite’s reflexive defense of feminism is referred to by terms including (but not limited to) white knight, blue pill, social justice warrior, or mangina.
The “deadbedrooms” subreddit on Reddit is pretty good too, which reminds me of this gem of a joke:
Q: what’s the best food to kill a woman’s libido?
A: wedding cake
I merely asked a question. I didn’t defend anything. I suppose that it could be considered to be a defense if it turns out that you have no answer to the question.
Also, regarding libido and wedding cake, do these guys think that things were better back 50 more more years ago, before feminism had its big impact?
Here’s another thought. Back in the day the feminists had a saying - “A woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle”. It sounds like these MGTOW characters are now saying the same thing about men.
If 70% of divorces are initiated by women, then it doesn’t really make sense to conclude that MEN are boycotting marraige. It is the women who realize that they are better off without that loser hanging around.
^LMAO
How about putting it this way: men are boycotting marriage before the fact; women are boycotting marriage after the fact?
Should I buy it?:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Town-of-Sanford-ME/2111367359_zpid/396116_rid/43.529634,-70.533257,43.276705,-70.96859_rect/10_zm/1_fr/
$12/ ft^2
Kind of defeats the purpose:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/video-teslas-battery-doesnt-well-155540495.html
CraterRage Photo Of The Day Flashback
http://goo.gl/UudjWw
Nice.
One wonders if the clerk who was the key player in this might not have been so amenable to payoffs, if she had been paid enough to live on. ($13/hour as a full time state employee)
“…….Driver’s License Fraud Case”
http://tinyurl.com/pg9moqk
Also…..make sure you check out the list of additional suspects at the end of the article.
(Exhibit #1011823 of -fixr’s “Stereotypes aren’t created out of thin air” worldview)
Profiling is how early man survived. The lion is not always more dangerous than the jackal but it is better to assume that it is.
I dont think we should try to be more like “early man.”
Got Evolution?
Got Evolution?
The Paleo diet is common among the left, I was eating like that before it even had a name. You can’t change in decades hundreds of thousands of years of evolution. What is more it is stupid to ignore increased risk to be politically correct.
everything to you is divided into two camps; Libs and neo-cons
there lies your problem, most smart people dont think that way.
Rand Paul 2016!
ps, yes, sugar is bad for you.
everything to you is divided into two camps; Libs and neo-cons
there lies your problem, most smart people dont think that way.
It seems to be the way you think. I guess you have explained it.
Quote from you today:
“This is your problem, short term thinking cause you have no kids nor care about the planet. Typical GOP, kill the Ohio River to save a dollar.”
Quote from you today:
“everything to you is divided into two camps; Libs and neo-cons
there lies your problem, most smart people dont think that way.”
What logical conclusion can a person that has not voted for mainstream candidate since 1992 like me draw?
ABQDan is not human. He is actually a digitally animated crayon. Just shrug him off.
As a father of three daughters 21 years or older, I consider myself somewhat of an expert on this.
Famous comment by oldest daughter, on immaturity level of her husband:
“You think he’s bad, you should see the rest of them…….”
The -Fixr has found himself cast as a “positive role model” for several boys/men who have dated or been friends with my daughters, even after break ups. I’m not so awesome, but compared to male role models they have (if any)..
Some of the reasons (IMO):
-Too many boys (and girls) living with single/divorced moms. Who want their kids to be their “best friends”.
-Too many parents working shift work/irregular schedules/weekends
(I’d like to see some numbers on the percentage of the workforce working Mon-Fri/8-5/40 hour weeks in 1970-71 vs. current).
The “hire minimal staff, and then run them into the ground” plan is SOP for just about every business in America.
The “Dad goes to work, comes home at 5:00pm, and makes enough money to allow mom to stay home with the kids” model worked for a long time, until someone decided it cost too much.
I’d like to see some numbers on the percentage of the workforce working Mon-Fri/8-5/40 hour weeks in 1970-71 vs. current
I think that 7-11 stores chose their name because they were open from 7 AM to 11 PM. This was unusual at one time because supermarkets were open during normal business hours - 8 to 5 or something similar. Now we expect retail businesses to operate much longer hours, never thinking that that requires people to work hours that ruin their family lives.
In Australia, which has a high minimum wage, the wage is even higher for hours worked on weekends. So people are compensated for the disruption.
“Flexible Work Schedule” (Corporate definition) =
Assigning the serfs to whatever crappy shift we want to assign them to, whenever we want, and pay no shift differential.
When I worked in Wichita, the shift differential between 1st and 2nd was 25 cents an hour.
Even in 1990, nobody with a lick of sense is going to screw up their lives for 25 cents an hour. Even to get a “promotion” (which, BTW, only paid a dime an hour on top of that)
Needless to say, they had problems filling 2-3rd shift crew chief positions.
I was “promoted” to second shift crew chief in the following manner, when there were ZERO voluntary applicants
-They called all of the senior guys they wanted to take promotions in to the office, and said “Congratulations, you are crew chiefs on second shift effective January 1.”
-They invited us to file grievances if we didn’t like it. Or we could quit.
-The Machinists Union, being more oriented at the time in efforts to protect the eff-ups, and noting that none of the guys filing grievances were union members, didn’t bother to get around to anyone’s grievances for over a year.
“…until someone decided it cost too much.”
Just check out how much bigger are the houses we older folks live in today are compared to what we grew up in if you want to see where the extra income generated by two working adults in the household went.
Barnichon writes:
In March, the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%, as anticipated by the model. Going forward, the contour of the forecast is broadly unchanged with a fast decline in unemployment over the next 6 months. In fact, the model anticipates a large drop in unemployment in April, with a jobless rate at 5.2 percent (so a 0.3 percentage point drop), going down to reach 4.5% by September 2015.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-forecast-may-6-2015-5#ixzz3ZNewhoBL
Apparently, under Obama’s economy you don’t have to create jobs to lower the unemployment rate, you just need to find new ways to reduce the labor force.
‘Apparently, under Obama’s economy you don’t have to create jobs to lower the unemployment rate, you just need to find new ways to reduce the labor force.’
Look at it like when companies buy back shares of their stock.
I have and I do. There have been very few times in recent history when stocks have traded below their intrinsic value the only time when a company should be buying back their shares.
Should I buy a Highlander or a Honda Pilot? I need a larger car that still gets over 20 mpg. 2004-06 or so. I was thinking about a Volvo XC90 but I read the tranny is weak and fails.
It’s not just the tranny on Volvo’s it’s the fuses, electric window switches, emission sensors, oil pump, water pump, piston rings, head gasket failures, fuel pumps and filters, window regulators, on board computer failures, steering system leaks, engine oil leaks, constant emitting dash warning lights, engine overheating, throttle body fail…… oh yeah and their transmissions are crap.
There’s a reason Volovo’s have the highest safety record…because they’re always in the shop.
Good point.
The old Volvos (pre Ford) were great. My 740 went over 260k with no major failures and I sold it to the next guy.
The 97 850’s are still a good used car choice.
^
I read the tranny is weak and fails.
Are we discussing Rio’s posts?
We had a cop come to my high school back in the day and regale us with his adventures (not!). Said cop got me ejected from the class when he was talking about the importance of keeping the cop cars in tip top shape and said, “You don’t want to blow a tranny in the middle of a pursuit.” To which I, in a failed attempt at wit, said, “Which one of you was driving?”
At some level of seriousness….I would hold off buying any big ticket items now unless you REALLY need it. I think things (especially used cars) are overpriced right now. I check Craigslist and AutoTrader looking for a used Toyota and am amazed at prices right now and they look to be trending many grand above KBB. Just my humble opinion. Another fact is sub-prime auto loans/leases are at a historic high now. If the economy takes a major dive this Fall there may be some phenomenal deals on newer used leases and cars… Me thinks there is a downtrend in many price tiers a comin’…
I check Craigslist and AutoTrader looking for a used Toyota and am amazed at prices right now and they look to be trending many grand above KBB
This could mean that KBB is just wrong. The other possibility is that the people advertising on Craigslist and AutoTrader are asking too much and you might be able to purchase from them if you offer a lot less than what they say that they want.
I’ve heard KBB can have a few months lag as it collects data it uses to compute prices so I think that may be it. Either way prices sure seem high to me.
Craigslist always overrepresents prices because the ads asking too much linger for a long time. If it’s priced correctly, then it goes away.
Pilot’s have more interior room and I think look better than the older goofy looking Highlander…Highlander designs post 2011 look better now.
I think GM’s SUVs look better than anything on the road, and I’m a Ford man generally.
Consumer confidence?
http://tinyurl.com/ln2793d
As usual, the -fixr has a theory
Confidence was low in 2010-2013 because most of the serfs realized that the shafting was never going to end. This was offset by the serfs who worked in the oil and commodities industries, who were drinking the “prices can never go down” Kool Aid.
The total “confidence” level is dropping because the 2014 beatings migrated to the oil and commodities crowd, while the floggings continue on the low confidence people of 2010-2013.
I think the gasoline price theory is correct. It is sad that so many families have so little disposal income that gasoline is so important, but it is. When gasoline was close to the price that it was when Obama took office they could afford to go to Denny’s and they were happy. They are now back to the microwave hotdog at the gasoline station and have less consumer confidence.
now you want the gov to create jobs, HA is right, ABQ is a confused socialist.
Where in that post do I say I want government to create jobs? I stated that the rise in gasoline prices has resulted in less disposable income thus it has impacted consumer confidence, nothing more.
Comment by rallying the base
2015-05-06 08:52:15
I am the last generation of skiers in North America. But after the resorts are all closed, I’ll still be skiing, just have to “earn the turns” to do it in the backcountry. As seen here from last Saturday, Grays Peak at left, Torreys Peak at right, 14,270′ and 14,267′ respectively:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150502_083139-OtVhAUPc.jpg
P.S. people with mortgages do not get to ski here
Hey is that up by Guanell Pass - between the 70 and the 285? - Beautiful up there if it is!!
I stopped by the house today during lunch to sneak in my Mother’s Day gift and discovered my neighbors parked on my lawn (again). I asked them to move the car and they went nuts, cursing and whatnot. I went inside and called the police.
Anywhoo, the last thing the lady shouted at me was
“RENTER!”
“I went inside and called the police.”
Hmmmmm … why am I thinking of something on the order of “rent a car thief”?
Where is a car thief when you need one?
If you called the police and IF the police had the car towed then the other party will eventually get his car back and he will most likely seek revenge. But if his car was stolen then he probably would not get his car back and, if it is handled correctly, he wouldn’t know who to direct his need for vengeance to.
I hope they send her to jail. Then you could say that at least you PAY for the roof over your head. What kind of knuckle-dragger parks on a lawn, and not even their own?
How much debt is this stock market being propped up by? Borrowing to buy overpriced companies seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
Liquidity and no debt is like a warm comfortable blanket.
Even worse is companies borrowing to buy their own stock back to drive the share price up. How sustainable is that?
I feel like it’s 1999 (tech bubble), or 2006 (housing bubble 1.0) all over again! I remember vividly when Microsoft stock was splitting twice per year on average.
This party is going to leave one he#@ of a hangover!
yeah using shareholder equity to gamble in the stock market seems real ethical and fraudulent doesn’t it?
facts:
As of July 2014, Oil Change International estimates the total value of U.S. subsidies to the fossil fuel industry at $37.5 billion annually, including international finance. This does not include military, health, climate, or local pollution costs. These subsidies have increased dramatically as U.S. oil and gas production has increased.
—-
$4 Billion: Subsidy cuts President Obama proposed in every budget he has sent to Congress
President Obama has proposed cutting certain subsidies to the oil and coal industries every year he’s been in office. The projections for savings have varied slightly each year but always hover around $4 billion annually. Congress has never even agreed to vote on all of them.
These subsidies have increased dramatically as U.S. oil and gas production has increased.
So have their taxes, the subsidies are nothing more than the same type of tax breaks every industry gets. It does not change the fact that they pay far more in taxes as a percentage of their profits than high tech companies.
Hard to imagine that in America’s most corrupt Democrat-run municipality, Chicago, a small group of “rogue cops” brutalized and abused suspects for decades, and no one knew anything. Wonder how the Chicago Police Union will explain this one away.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chicago-council-approves-reparations-for-police-torture-victims-2015-5
I think we just found John McCain’s “moderate Islamists.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/libyan-soldiers-training-in-uk-took-turns-raping-man-in-cambridge-park-10229512.html
Another “unintended consequence” of the Fed’s housing bubble.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/6/report-home-foreclosures-fueled-segregation.html
The widespread home foreclosures that devastated families at the height of the Great Recession also exacerbated racial segregation in communities across the United States, according to a new study.
Racial segregation between Latinos and whites grew by almost 50 percent and segregation between blacks and whites grew by about 20 percent as a result of families either moving in or abandoning areas hit hard by home repossession, researchers estimated.
The gap was fueled by white families leaving homes in ethnically integrated neighborhoods hit hard by foreclosures, while blacks and Latinos moved into those neighborhoods, seeking affordable housing, according to the report, titled “Neighborhood Foreclosures, Racial/Ethnic Transitions, and Residential Segregation.”
“Among its many impacts, the foreclosure crisis has partly derailed progress in achieving racial integration in American cities,” said the demographer who led the study, Matthew Hall, an assistant professor of policy and management at Cornell’s College of Human Ecology.
What a rigged market looks like (see charts).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/late-day-buying-scramble-saves-dows-year-after-yellen-yanks-punchbowl
How come so many investors are Yellen?
Wonkblog
Janet Yellen on why stocks might be overvalued
By Matt O’Brien May 6 at 6:34 PM
(Reuters/Brendan McDermid)
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that even though “risks to financial stability are moderated,” stock prices are still “quite high” right now. Markets, though, shrugged off this concern. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was only down 0.78 percent on the day.
If this is our “irrational exuberance” moment, it’s not much of one — not that the original one was either. That came back on Dec. 5, 1996, when, in the middle of an otherwise unremarkable speech, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan asked “how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan the past decade.” Japan’s stock market, as economist Robert Shiller points out, promptly fell 3 percent, Hong Kong’s did too, and then London and Frankfurt’s dropped 4 percent. The U.S. stock market opened the next day down 2 percent, but rallied thereafter. And then it kept rallying for the next three years, before the boom turned into a bubble.
Timing the market, in other words, isn’t easy even if you’re the Fed chair. Maybe that’s why Greenspan didn’t try again. But after the housing market’s collapse nearly brought the entire global economy with it, the Fed realized that it couldn’t blithely assume it could ignore what was going on and just clean up any financial mess. It’d have to do what it could—either talking down markets or regulating them or both—to keep the financial system safe without sacrificing the economy. That’s why Yellen warned last summer that “valuation metrics” for “smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries”—aka startups—”appear substantially stretched.” That only set off a short-lived sell off, though.
Now, stocks have cooled off since the start of the year, but not that much. So does that mean stock prices are “quite high”? Well, that depends on how you look at it. Take Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, which looks at the past ten years of earnings to figure out how pricey stocks are today. The idea here is that it smooths out any big ups or downs, and shows us how fairly valued—or not—stocks are. And by this measure, as you can see below, stocks really are getting expensive.
…
I hope Yellen does this bubble in. I would LIKE to buy some stocks at a reasonable price, thank you very much.