Bits Bucket for May 7, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
January 2025 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Is China steel production about to crater?
It has been cratering for awhile. Scrap metal was once over 200/ ton. Now it is about 60.
There is no demand.
China has labor shortages and is increasingly moving to the use of robots how is that consistent with no demand?
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-05/07/content_20642052.htm
Demand is collapsing globally. Not just China and US.
Due to reduced home building, Chinese demand for steel fell a little more than 3% last year and will drop .5% this year so yes the sky is falling.
http://www.ft.com/intl/fastft/319041/iron-ore-price-jumps-back-above-60
New century, new needs:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/consumer/BASFs-new-plant-to-tap-growing-needs/shdaily.shtml
Excerpt from link, as I said new century and new needs:
BASF said yesterday that its new polymerization plant aims to serve its growing market in Asia-Pacific by strengthening local production and supply network.
“The demand for polyamide products in the engineering plastics, fiber and film industries will continue to grow strongly, particularly in China,” said Albert Heuser, BASF’s head for China.
“With the local production facility, we are well-positioned to support our customers’ strong growth and help them to develop innovative products for tapping market opportunities,” Heuser said.
The German chemical company inaugurated the wholly owned plant at the Shanghai Chemical Industry Park in Caojing yesterday.
The new plant will have a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year.
“This is the first investment in polyamide polymerization for BASF in Asia-Pacific and shows our strong commitment to this market,” said Kurt Bock, chairman of the board of executive directors at BASF.
“The innovative production setup enables us to respond to our customers’ needs even quicker with more flexibility,” Bock added.
“even quicker with more flexibility…”
Building such a plant is a very long process, so this decision was based on global market perceptions of several years ago. It doesn’t give us a useful indication of what is happening now.
Strategy in the chemical industry has changed drastically in the past six months.
Building such a plant is a very long process, so this decision was based on global market perceptions of several years ago. It doesn’t give us a useful indication of what is happening now.
Really? Many projects in the oil patch were planned for years and were postponed when the price of oil fell. Do you really believe that they would not have taken into account the latest data prior to deciding to go ahead?
“projects in the oil patch were planned for years and were postponed when the price of oil fell…”
Yes, I believe it. Contracts for major pieces of equipment were signed 12 to 24 months ago after a year or two of design and technical review by all parties involved. BASF is not a boom/bust roughneck outfit. They already have a big chemicals park in China and they will be fine whether China keeps expanding or not.
Labor shortage? Don’t they still have 400 mil to 500 mil people to integrate to modern economy?
They have hundreds of millions they would like to move to the cities but that includes significant numbers of retired people.
A lot of work done in China is make work that would be automated in the west.
So what you are saying is we won’t be seeing $15/hour minimum-wage laws there anytime soon . . .
Professor Bear:
Q. “Is China steel production about to crater?”
ADan:
A. “China has labor shortages and is increasingly moving to the use of robots how is that consistent with no demand?”
Danger, danger, Will Robinson. That answer makes no sense whatsoever.
I posted links that directly address the steel situation in China. But I also addressed the implicit point in your question, that China was not growing at around 7%, it is even if the construction related sectors are not.
ABQDan is a non practicing attorney, it is in his blood to BS when not listening to the police scanner for car accidents. LOL!
I posted links…
There are not enough fingers on two hands to plug all the leaks in the Miracle.
Excerpt from link, twenty years ago Chinese factories did not even use conveyor belts since labor was so cheap:
More than 100 industrial robots have been installed at a zero-labor factory that is being built in Dongguan, a major manufacturing base in Guangdong province.
The construction of the factory, the first of its kind in the province, marks an important step for the “robot assembly line” strategy that is being followed by the province as it tackles a severe labor shortage.
Chen Qixing, chairman of the board of Guangdong Everwin Precision Technology, said 1,000 robots will be used in the first phase of the production facility.
“The use of industrial robots will help the company to reduce the number of front-line workers by at least 90 percent,” Chen said.
“When all the 1,000 industrial robots are put into operation in the coming months, we will only need to recruit fewer than 200 software technicians and management personnel.”
Without the robots, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange-listed company would have to employ more than 2,000 workers, he added.
Ren Xiangsheng, the executive deputy general manager, said the robots will help the company to maintain production stability and product quality.
Zou Yanbiao, an associate professor of robotics at South China University of Technology, said: “Using robots can help manufacturing companies to upgrade their production processes, reduce manufacturing costs and ensure the quality of their products.
“The use of industrial robots may become of greater significance in the future, as Guangdong’s manufacturing industry seeks to adjust to labor shortages.”
According to Guangdong’s Department of Human Resources and Social Security, the province is facing a shortage of 600,000 to 800,000 workers. Dongguan alone has a labor gap of more than 100,000.
More than 100 industrial robots have been installed at a zero-labor factory that is being built in Dongguan, a major manufacturing base in Guangdong province.
A “zero-labor factory” can be built anywhere, right? The only real benefit to building it in China vs say here in the US is that the initial build-out costs will be lower.
A “zero-labor factory” can be built anywhere, right?
Yes, but it needs highly intelligent people to service those machines and I think that they exist in quantity only in countries with an average IQ of around 100. Check out sometime how few countries really have an IQ at that level. Then, compare the IQ scores to their median incomes. You will see that Chinese workers are really the best for the money.
The advantage to building in China is the cheap cost of their very dirty energy.
And if you have enough intelligent people to design and install the machines, then you have enough people to service the machines.
It takes an army of high IQ people to run an automated factory?
Sounds rather illogical.
The advantage to building in China is the cheap cost of their very dirty energy.
That was their advantage for years until they no longer had a sufficient supply of coal to meet demand hence they started to buy expensive imported coal. This has been one of the main reasons to move to solar and wind in China. However, while alternative energy is competitive with imported coal, we could undercut them by using our coal which is much cheaper than the world’s average but Obama is causing the opposite to happen. The Chinese support his AGW policies because they can produce wind and solar cheaper than we can produce such power.
Then, you are not thinking hard enough. This is not Skynet, robots need to be constantly programed, repaired and replaced.
” robots need to be constantly programed, repaired and replaced”
Then where is the cost advantage of an automated factory? Wouldn’t a bunch of workers be cheaper than a bunch of robotics engineers and computer programmers?
You still have far fewer workers, it all depends on your supply of unskilled workers. I rather live in a country that does not bring in vast numbers of unskilled workers with low IQs to perform unskilled labor cheaply. I would rather use intelligent people to create and service machines. China agrees with my approach, Obama does not.
“China agrees with my approach, Obama does not.”
You’re either paid or insane.
Really? Why does Obama support overwhelming this country with unskilled illegal immigrants through amnesty?
“I rather live in a country that does not bring in vast numbers of unskilled workers with low IQs”
Yet, you live in NM???? huh? Not Santa Fe, but ABQ.
Sounds like you lost the robotics argument, so now you’re pivoting to your daily 40 posts about how evil Obummer is. Which is your standard technique when you’re losing an argument (which is quite often).
Like I said, you’re either paid or insane.
Yet, you live in NM???? huh? Not Santa Fe, but ABQ.
Santa Fe is one of the centers of overpriced housing, I am intelligent enough to not live there but enjoy some of it amenities which are an easy drive. Oddfellow, hardly have lost the robotics argument, everything was accurate, if you cannot understand that advances in technology lead to better but different jobs, well you are just a Luddite.
Whoever is paying him is getting a poor deal. He’s spending a lot of time an effort to proselytize to a small group of frugal housing bears. I guess all this China happy talk is supposed to convince to “invest” in a pair of panties from WAL*MART.
so now you’re pivoting to your daily 40 posts about how evil Obummer is.
Dan is the worst. We all should be pointing how evil Bush is. Obama can do no wrong, repeat after me. LOL
advances in technology lead to better but different jobs,
Awesome. Didn’t some other world superpower say that in the 90’s, but good gosh I can’t remember who.
Santa Fe is cheaper today than when I left in 2009.
It is a gem of a city, always going to be expensive as there is no place like it with great, weather and beautiful mtns. Did I mention the art, food and cools people? I was there for 8 yrs. Fantastic quality of life. Crappy public schools, so I left.
Then where is the cost advantage of an automated factory? Wouldn’t a bunch of workers be cheaper than a bunch of robotics engineers and computer programmers?
There has been some research on this. Businesses prefer robots even if they cost a little more. They can work 24 hours a day and they’ll do whatever management wants them to do. They never talk back.
No overtime pay, no time off for childbearing, no healthcare, no robot unions, no repetitive-stress injuries, no OSHA inspectors, what’s not to like?
“it needs highly intelligent people to service those machines…average IQ…”
I do love an irony. Smart themselves out of a job will they.
I seem to recall that it was REAGAN who started this little amnesty odyssey, not Obama. Or perhaps you could complain to the business owners who hire the undocumented immigrants.
How come American robots are so expensive compared to Chinese robots?
American labor costs to build them.
How come American robots are so expensive compared to Chinese robots?
They must be union.
Union goons. They will cut the hydraulic lines of any robot that does not pay union dues.
Because Chinese robots do the jobs American robots won’t do.
More from China Daily, the Chinese just sound so poor compared to the broke@ss “loosers” Americans:
NEW YORK - China has emerged as the most important consumer market in the world, said Michael Zakkour, vice-president of US consulting firm Tompkins International, in a Wednesday panel discussion on Chinese consumers.
Experts attending the panel at Fashion Institute of Technology in New York attributed the thriving of Chinese consumption in recent years to basically four factors: the booming of e-commerce, urbanization, rise of middle class and Chinese going global.
“With the development of borderless e-commerce in the past two years, Chinese consumers now can not only buy goods from Alibaba, but also from Amazon in the US,” Zakkour told the audience.
Some 500 million Chinese now shop online, he added, 200 million more than the entire US population.
According to ZakkourHe, the urbanization process in the past 20 years and the emerging of middle-class people, who enjoy more disposable income than any other time in history, have given birth to “super consumers”, featuring higher motive and purchasing power.
Moreover, more and more Chinese are going overseas with their loaded wallets. Last year, about 125 million Chinese made overseas trips. The figure will double in the next five years, Zakkour said.
“The Chinese travelers spend an average of $7,000 for each trip, while American travellers spend $2,000 per capital per trip,” he said.
Experts point out that foreign companies that seek to win Chinese consumers should not only enter China’s market; instead, they should view Chinese consumers in a global perspective.
Recent slowdown of Chinese economic growth has raised concerns over the future trend of Chinese consumption. Experts at the panel believed that the 7-percent economic growth remains strong globally and Chinese domestic consumption is sure to grow as Chinese government rebalances the economy.
Jason Merritt, assistant vice-president of HSBC Bank, said that there are great opportunities in terms of consumer sector in China and the business environment is getting better for overseas investment.
For those foreign brands who are eager to succeed in China, they should also keep in mind the distinctive culture, philosophy and mindset of Chinese consumers, Zakkour said.
“The Chinese travelers spend an average of $7,000 for each trip”
And here I though the Chinese weren’t consuming which is why their economy doesn’t have enough growth. At least that’s what you said the other day.
You overstate what I said, they are spending around fifty percent of their incomes. However, that is far below the U.S. which if measured the same way (way used by CIA) it is in the teens. If you use the other more common measurement we save around 5% of our incomes and they save around 30%.
They save 40% according to your many posts, not 30%. They also now spend 100% of their salary on vacations to Niagara Falls, that after spending 40 years salary on a house, three to six years salary on a car and a month’s pay for a pair of sneakers, and a smart phone in every pocket. All this while 100s of millions of them are comfortably retired.
psssst….there is no shortage of coal, anywhere.
40% is the average of the two different ways to calculate the savings rate, I explained the measurements up above.
More pain ahead for China steel
Mia Tahara-Stubbs
9 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
Sluggish demand at home is driving up the chronic supply surplus at China’s steel mills to critical levels and is set to drive down global prices, analysts warn.
“Chinese authorities will be slow to react to the over-capacity,” E&Y’s global mining & markets leader Michael Elliott told CNBC by phone. In the meantime, “steel prices will remain low for the next five years, until the global industry consolidation starts to take place,” he said.
For a decade, China’s mostly state-owned steelmakers have been supplying the country’s building boom with more steel than it needed, while steel prices nearly halved during the same period.
Now, with the economy growing at the slowest pace in six years and demand shrinking at home, the excess capacity is hitting critical levels, although China’s steel mills have shown few signs of slowing down production.
The level of excess capacity may be as high as 30 percent according to E&Y, and little relief is in sight on the domestic front: demand for steel in China contracted for the first time in a decade in 2014, falling by 3.3 percent on-year, and is set to drop by 0.5 percent on-year in both 2015 and 2016, according to World Steel Association (WSA) forecasts.
“The need for consolidation has been recognized for some time and the government has set targets for capacity closure in the past,” Capital Economics’ Caroline Bain said in a report on Tuesday. “However, production (and losses and debts) just kept on rising,” she said.
Too much steel everywhere
Beijing’s record on keeping to its reduction targets is not entirely stellar, in part because the state-owned steelmakers are major local employers.
The government has just recently pushed back its target date for restructuring and consolidating the steel industry by ten years to 2025, according to E&Y’s Elliot.
…
“…China’s mostly state-owned steelmakers…”
“The government has just recently pushed back its target date for restructuring and consolidating the steel industry by ten years to 2025″
Every government owned industry is in the same pickle - too much capacity and not enough demand. How many warehouses are filling up with unneeded steel at this very moment? Gotta have that 7% GDP no matter what.
Gotta have that 7% GDP no matter what
Yes, the hold over from the planned economy mode, however they have the ability to meet it and the people are getting 8% raises after inflation so it is not too hard for them to take. The people are gaining economic freedom and turning to religion which scares the hell out of the government and results in periodic repression. However, the government is losing control and cannot gain it back without killing the goose the laid the golden egg, capitalism. The Chinese will not go back to being poor so they will never go back to true communism.
Because of the paternalistic nature of China’s government, the average person in China has come to expect that he or she is entitled to a profit on every investment, hence the spectacle of near riots when a developer tries to sell apartments cheaper than what they sold originally. People who think the government can control every aspect of the economy will therefore blame the government when their stocks and real estate plummet. Wait until hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens decide that they’ve been screwed out of their life savings while the folks in government have been lining their pockets. That’s when things will get interesting.
Shanghai Tea Party, anybody?
2015-05-07 07:02:49
Due to reduced home building, Chinese demand for steel fell a little more than 3% last year and will drop .5% this year so yes the sky is falling
Almost an hour before your post I directly addressed your point, from your post this exact language:
demand for steel in China contracted for the first time in a decade in 2014, falling by 3.3 percent on-year, and is set to drop by 0.5 percent on-year in both 2015 and 2016, according to World Steel Association (WSA) forecasts.
GDP is a lagging indicator of debt expansion.
This is a Drudge Report link written by Michael Savage to “rally the base”
http://www.wnd.com/2015/05/savage-obama-will-arm-u-s-gangs-for-race-war/
The base now rallied, what does it do? It clicks on a bunch of other links from World Net Daily, Breitbart, Weekly Standard, CBS Local (Drudge has an advertising partnership with them to link to their assorted shitty subdomains), Washington Times, CNS news, Daily Caller, and Fox News. This “base” are like the cattle marching out of the truck and up the chute to the killing floor, with Sheldon Adelson cracking the whip, and William Kristol chuckling, fondling coins in his pocket, and watching.
You could have voted for Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012, but you didn’t.
Not that voting makes any difference, but keep clicking those Drudge Report links.
You could have voted for Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012, but you didn’t.
No, instead the sheeple comprising 95% of the electorate bent over for their .1% masters by casting votes for the corporatocracy’s water carriers Obama, McCain, and Romney. Now we are going to get exactly what we deserve.
The same vegetables who voted for crony capitalism and more reaming by the .1% with their votes for Obama, McCain, and Romney are now ready for more of the same with HillaryJeb.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/16629031224/
And the vegetables would LOVE to vote for or support anti crony-capitalistic Elizabeth Warren, but it seems that you’re not allowing that either. Just WTF do you want?
Thanks for the laugh.
Clinton / Warren 2016?
Paul/Johnson 2016 ?
Now that would be exciting!! Of course nothing would change, but….
If it were Sanders/Warren vs. Paul/Johnson, I think we’d see a lot of change.
However, I don’t think it would be only because of the Presidency. If the electorate goes radical enough to vote those four through the primaries, then they would also be radical enough to turn over a LOT of Congress in the general election.
Do you people actually believe in “Michael Savage”? That is not even his real name or his real persona. Just some Jewish guy who found a way to make a buck off of old white racists. At least Elizabeth Warren is actually Elizabeth Warren.
+1. Savage and his ilk are making tons of money winding up the gumbahs.
Is Michael Savage an elected official?
‘winding up the gumbahs’
Dan has the Savage app on his phone.
‘At least Elizabeth Warren is actually Elizabeth Warren’
Deer skin dress and all.
I have not listened to Savage consistently ever. It has been months since I have listened to him at all, but I think he does makes some valid and interesting points and has no use for the establishment Republicans. It is your blog and you have a right to do anything with it you want but do you really believe personal attacks on me advance your arguments?
How about “Dan Savage”? Put that one on your app.
‘advance your arguments’
A man walks into an office.
Man: (Michael Palin) Ah. I’d like to have an argument, please.
Receptionist: Certainly sir. Have you been here before?
Man: No, this is my first time.
Receptionist: I see. Well, do you want to have the full argument, or were you thinking of taking a course?
Man: Well, what would be the cost?
Receptionist: Well, It’s one pound for a five minute argument, but only eight pounds for a course of ten.
Man: Well, I think it’s probably best if I start with the one and then see how it goes from there, okay?
Receptionist: Fine. I’ll see who’s free at the moment.
(Pause)
Receptionist: Mr. DeBakey’s free, but he’s a little bit conciliatory. Ahh yes, Try Mr. Barnard; room 12.
Man: Thank you. (Walks down the hall. Opens door.)
Angry man: WHADDAYOU WANT?
Man: Well, Well, I was told outside that…
Angry man: DON’T GIVE ME THAT, YOU SNOTTY-FACED HEAP OF PARROT DROPPINGS!
Man: What?
A: SHUT YOUR FESTERING GOB, YOU TIT! YOUR TYPE MAKES ME PUKE! YOU VACUOUS TOFFEE-NOSED MALODOROUS PERVERT!!!
M: Yes, but I came here for an argument!!
A: OH! Oh! I’m sorry! This is abuse!
M: Oh! Oh I see!
A: Aha! No, you want room 12A, next door.
M: Oh…Sorry…
A: Not at all!
A: (under his breath) stupid git.
http://www.montypython.net/scripts/argument.php
That Python sketch is similar to the situation with Dan and China. I have a feeling that a lot of people who argue with him about China don’t really care about the country that much. They’re just drawn into argument because Dan submits so many posts extolling the virtues of the Chinese economy.
“That Python sketch is similar to the situation with Dan and China. I have a feeling that a lot of people who argue with him about China don’t really care about the country that much. They’re just drawn into argument because Dan submits so many posts extolling the virtues of the Chinese economy.”
China is the biggest disaster waiting to happen in the world, so in that respect, it very much matters. And Dan is like counter indicator - the more he tries to paint a rosy picture of China’s economy, the worse China’s economy actually is. And Dan has been getting more and more strident lately.
I’ve come to view China as the most important element of the combination of economic sea changes surrounding what we describe as globalism. You can go all the way back to Greenspan’s devaluing the USD versus the Yen. The consumption model, off-shoring, it’s all connected. It culminated in China. They set off the BRIC boom, the circumstances involved lead to the deflationary spiral we are in. Deflation freed the central banks to create more and more pesos, ZIRP, and the resulting avalanche of global debt. But China is the high water mark. They used more concrete in a few years than the US did in a hundred. We put up photos of entire empty cities and yet don’t realize the historic calamity before us. They scurry around the world, driving up prices of everything they take a fancy to. We say, New Zealand milk is worth what the Chinese think it is. Houses in California, air boxes in Manhattan, French wineries, all carry the lofty, imaginary value of a people who weren’t even allowed to own a house 15 years ago. And they paid for it with money created out of thin air.
“And they paid for it with money created out of thin air.”
People think that China can buy anything it wants with the money it makes by having a trade surplus with us. But all of that money has to be put right back into U.S. bonds to stop the Yuan from rising. The money the Chinese have been spending on ghost cities and foreign real estate is their own, and someday it has to be paid back to the hundreds of millions of citizen creditors who are still naive enough to think they will get it.
“it has to be paid back…”
What was stolen or wasted can not be paid back.
“They used more concrete in a few years than the US did in a hundred. We put up photos of entire empty cities and yet don’t realize the historic calamity before us.”
Sobering point. The state of shock and denial is now; the calamity will only sink in when viewed through the lens of the rear-view mirror.
Unfortunately, it was not a wealth generating endeavor, it was a credit based irresponsible consumption event. Waste and graft spilling out all over the world. There will be hell to pay.
This all might have been different if the Chinese were good at business. They aren’t. They are possibly the worst investors ever. These are the idiots running all over the globe setting prices. Prices are very important. They signal what commodities to produce and in what quantities. What markets to expand or contract and how to supply them, etc. All have been distorted, the chief distortion - China. The fatal flaw IMO, there isn’t going to be another China. There won’t be another billion person, mud-hut to skyscraper, so-called economic miracle. They had their one big shot and they blew it, or it never had a chance in the first place.
What does his being Jewish have to do with anything?
On a related topic, I find it amusing that Christian Zionists believe that all modern Jewish people are descended from the tribes of Israel, when in reality only the Sephardic are. The Ashkenazim who later populated Eastern and Central Europe (and were the source of most of the Jewish immigration to the United States) are descended from the Khazars, who converted to Judaism in the 8th century A.D.
And they were and are some smart sobs, evolution in evidence. Not Semitic though.
when in reality only the Sephardic are.
Interesting—I didn’t know that.
are descended from the Khazars
My understanding is that has been disproven.
My understanding is that has been disproven
Yes and no, the argument is whether virtually all European Jews are decedent from the Khazars or not. Studies show significant Middle East blood in many European populations. But the closer the population is to Russia where the Khazars originated, near the Moscow area, the lower the percentage.
On a related topic, I find it amusing that Christian Zionists believe that all modern Jewish people are descended from the tribes of Israel, when in reality only the Sephardic are.
If they really care about such things, it’s more evidence that they’re out of their minds. Isn’t the idea that everyone should accept Christ, regardless of ancestry?
The Ashkenazim who later populated Eastern and Central Europe (and were the source of most of the Jewish immigration to the United States) are descended from the Khazars, who converted to Judaism in the 8th century A.D.
This notion has been largely discredited. You can read it about it a little on the Internet. Arthur Koestler, a British Jewish write, wrote a book about it hoping that advancing this theory would reduce anti-Semitism. On the other hand, people like David Duke like it because it would mean that very few American Jews are related to the Jews in the Bible.
From Wikipedia:
Beginning in the 8th century, Khazar royalty and notable segments of the aristocracy converted to Judaism; the populace appears to have been multi-confessional—a mosaic of pagan, Tengrist, Jewish, Christian and Muslim worshippers—and polyethnic.[18] Khazar origins for, or suggestions Khazars were absorbed by many peoples, have been made regarding the Slavic Judaising Subbotniks, the Bukharan Jews, the Muslim Kumyks, Kazakhs, Nogais,[citation needed] the Cossacks of the Don region, the Turkic-speaking Krymchaks and the and their Crimean neighbours the Karaites to the Moldavian Csángós, the Mountain Jews and others.[19][20][21] A modern theory, that the core of Ashkenazi Jewry emerged from a hypothetical Khazarian Jewish diaspora, is now viewed with scepticism by most scholars,[22] but occasionally supported by others.[23] This Khazarian hypothesis is sometimes associated with antisemitism[24] and anti-Zionism.[25]
Jewish as in being a sharp business person; how about that?
This is my smartphone browser’s current ad on the HBB and some other Internets:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0062369288
It’s the Peter Schweizer book “Clinton Cash”. Senator Bernie Sanders reintroduced a bill to Congress yesterday to break up the largest banks, saying if they’re too big to fail, they’re too big to exist.
And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links.
I’m glad Elizabeth Warren is so involved in this also, breaking up the big banks, reinstating Glass-Stegall, banning thing like 3% down loans that cause financial suicide.
All my slacktivist friends on Facebook “like” Elizabeth Warren, it’s how they show what enlightened and informed citizens they are, without having to put any actual thought, effort, time or money into it.
Um, yeah. Fauxahontas, a .1%er herself, showed her true colors by rushing to block an audit of the Fed, which has done more than any single entity in US history to rip off the middle and working classes for the benefit of its .1% banking cartel owners.
“Audit the Fed” debunked http://fortune.com/2015/02/24/federal-reserve-janet-yellen-audit/
Q. What’s worse than the Fed managing short term rates?
A. Congress managing short term rates.
Suppose the audit were structured so that any discussion of short-term rate management were explicitly kept off the table.
Do you think they would be open to an audit under those terms? Because short-term interest rate policy isn’t a very interesting topic in a ZIRP-forever environment, anyway.
The Fed is routinely audited now, including Office of Inspector General oversight
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_12784.htm
But these real audits are boring and don’t give Congress a chance to grandstand. That’s why the whole “audit the Fed” thing is bogus.
Bring Back the WPA +1
This Fed audit deal is just a Rue Paul attention grabber; it does not mean dick in the real world.
Can’t Rue Paul get a better rug? He looks idiotic.
It’s only natural that Libertarians be cross-dressers. They don’t believe in any rules whatsoever. It’s a form of personal anarchy, I think.
I was thinking about your strong defense of California capitalism and your screen name of make-work socialism and now central bank appeaser. Very consistent. Like Dan said, the real Reaganites are in Beijing. Red sky in morning, keeps the doctor away.
“California capitalism”
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
the real Reaganites are in Beijing.
Now that’s ironic given how China is notorious for high levels of corruption and bribery. I guess the Chinese have learned from Reagan and the GOP quite well ; - )
“California capitalism” Isn’t that an oxymoron?
LOL. We just passed Russia and Brazil to become #7 on the world GDP list. I thought Texas was going to catch us but the oil price crash halted that (for now).
All the corrupt chinese people and their children are in Kalifornia. LOL
high levels of corruption
And high levels of pollution. No wonder they are pushing wind and solar and nuke. Maybe that should be yellow sky in the morning, keeps the doctor in business.
All the corrupt chinese people and their children are in Kalifornia. LOL
Isolated to the OC (Irvine) and Bay area. Like the Persians, they dont like the great outdoors.
“Can’t Rue Paul get a better rug? He looks idiotic.”
Hey… that’s oatmeal shampoo!
Um, yeah. Fauxahontas, a .1%er herself,…
The Fauxahontas meme is something that the .1%ers love. It distracts the masses so that they pay less attention to the important issues. Big businesses don’t care about politicians’ personal or family lives, their religion or anything like that. They just want policies that are good for their bottom lines. They’re quite happy for the hoi polloi to waste their time getting all excited about unimportant nonsense. It allows them to run the country without interference.
I do think it was regrettable she voted to block the Fed audit. However, she is the only one talking about the core issues behind the economic malaise in the US and the world.
Seriously, with the rest of the world emerging, so many more consumers coming online, world wealth increasing, technology marching forward, the only group that is prospering wildly are the wealthiest. This should be a time of consistently growing wealth, but it’s the only thing consistent is its capture by the wealthiest of society aided and abetted by politicians and central banks.. Central banks relentlessly pump money into the economy, but it gets soaked up by the financial sector and just leads to asset bubbles and wealth redistribution upwards via monetary policy.
Warren is the only one who even talks about this stuff. The other ones are so beholden to their paymasters (Bernanke went to Citadel - he was thinking about post employment prospects as he is a rational human being) that they dare not.
I almost certainly don’t agree with her on social issues. But while both parties share essentially the same view on economic issues while differing in talk on social issues, Warren actually differs on economic issues. That’s unusual.
She’s the only one talking about this stuff.
Obama talked a good game too, when he was running as a “progressive.” Then he got into office and became the Third Bush Administration.
+1. Show me actions, not words.
What has she really done, other than defended the Fed?
Oh wait, I think she also helped water down QRM…
Why has our economy become dependent on overpriced assets?
Are we taking to much from future gains to live in the today?
Mo Credik.
This would almost be funny - like a Letterman Top 10 List - if it weren’t so true.
“All Endings Considered — How to End a Story the NPR way
Ever wonder why NPR stories leave you feeling the way they do? Here’s a list of traits that close those stories with that signature dread.”
http://www.radiodiscussions.com/showthread.php?686654-What-Makes-NPR-So-Depressing&p=6046862#post6046862
NPR is the official mouthpiece for white people advocating their own extermination.
Because “progressive” = exterminate Whitey.
See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jade_Helm_15
Girls love it’s soft tone.
NPR is soothingly collectivist. It is the voice of Big Mommy Government. All you have to do is raise taxes of those evil rich Republicans and it will deliver you the nourishing breast, it will take you back to the womb.
The smooth groove-like lullaby of NPR is deliberate.
my hatred of npr has been they are evil grubby corporate raiders
they have stolen/ hi jacked all the high powered fm frequencies and made it impossible for any local community group or even colleges with journalism broadcasting schools to get a lousy 100 watt station, and get real on the air training . which is what the fcc envisioned many years ago.
the days of student run college radio will probably not last this decade. and having over the air radio experience on your resume, still holds a significant weight when applying for jobs
Oh I yearn for the days of pirate radio!!
Extreme secrecy eroding support for Obama’s trade pact
By Edward-Isaac Dovere
5/4/15 5:40 AM EDT
If you want to hear the details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal the Obama administration is hoping to pass, you’ve got to be a member of Congress, and you’ve got to go to classified briefings and leave your staff and cellphone at the door.
If you’re a member who wants to read the text, you’ve got to go to a room in the basement of the Capitol Visitor Center and be handed it one section at a time, watched over as you read, and forced to hand over any notes you make before leaving.
And no matter what, you can’t discuss the details of what you’ve read.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/secrecy-eroding-support-for-trade-pact-critics-say-117581.html#ixzz3ZSGwqOiY
Comrad Pelosi on Obamacare: We have to pass it to see what’s in it.
Your engagement with enragement is causing your derangement.
CraterRage Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/j0tx4U
SCHOLAR
Speaking of anger and we see this on this blog:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbradley/2015/05/06/climate-anger-last-refuge-of-the-alarmists/2/
CraterRage Photo Of The Day
The best one yet!
Chinese military corruption is so endemic it is undermining the nation’s ability to wage war (thank goodness). Wonder how many Chinese generals and colonels have ill-gotten financial gains parked in California real estate.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-military-says-some-not-taking-graft-fight-seriously-2015-5
There are some in China’s armed forces, the largest in the world, who are not taking the fight against corruption seriously, brushing problems under the carpet and not daring to go after senior officers, its official paper said on Thursday.
Weeding out graft in the military is a top goal of President Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission, which controls China’s 2.3-million-strong armed forces.
Serving and retired Chinese military officers have said military graft is so pervasive it could undermine China’s ability to wage war, and dozens of senior officers have been taken down.
Wonder how many Chinese generals and colonels have ill-gotten financial gains parked in California real estate.
More than you can ever imagine.
Comrad Pelosi and the DNC pushing to restore felon voting privileges, since the overwhelming majority will vote for their fellow criminals, the Democrats.
http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/opinion/columns/3736561-minnesota-felons-should-finish-full-sentences-being-allowed-vote
More market rigging to in a desperate bid to keep the Ponzi from foundering.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/saved-broken-euronext-manic-selling-becomes-panic-buying-global-bond-stock-markets
why is the dong so weak if there is a recovery?
The dong is the Vietnamese currency.
Lack of Viagra, in Vietnam?
Should you go long in the dong??
Probably better to go long in the dong than short.
I’m long dong and silver.
The article asks this question: Which leaves us wondering… how long before these jaws snap shut?
When the insiders have sold their shares to our pension funds.
Dan, is this you?
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-downgraded-china-stocks-msci-stock-exchange-2015-5
No, but I lift 280 pounds on the shoulder machine.
Put down the ‘roids you oaf.
Pikes Peak Ascent half marathon is exactly 100 days from today. So far in 2015 I have set and beat plural personal records going up the Manitou Incline and Mt Morrison above Red Rocks. Up to 2,700 vertical feet of gain per hour now, and hoping to top 3,000.
No roids, just too much natural testosterone. I have the treadmill set at a 15% grade. But after Reid and Sandberg’s husband I guess I should fear it. The explanation seems to be a two for, explains his death and makes Reid seem more credible. I still have doubts on both.
Looks like the divergence between the collapse of the real economy and the continued leviation of our rigged markets is about to have a reality check.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/us-macro-data-has-never-collapsed-fast
It would be nice if there were some new jobs created instead of relying on more debt and asset appreciation.
Jobs are so last century … driving illegal taxis for Uber, or being an smartphone summoned gopher, that’s the future.
nowadays people think work is basically showing up.
And if you telework, you don’t even have to do that.
Witness to your post - does this look like an improving job market?
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/yellen-sparks-bond-tantrum-as-yields-soar-from-sydney-to-tokyo/ar-BBjjYzc
Higher interest rates = higher returns on savings.
Why the tantrum? Isn’t that a good thing?
If you are a saver, then you are a loser. Buy the biggest house you can, then HELOC it to the hilt and put that cash into the market.
It is simple to get rich in this country.
And it will work, until is does not.
Savers. Risk-averse whiners who want to get paid for taking no risk.
People who do not carry a credit card balance in the industry are called “Free Loaders”. LOL.
Spoken like a real idiotard.
I think he’s being sarcastic.
I’m getting paid without risking. You’re cash and future income stream is already spent and gone.
Sorry.
Credit Markets
Government Bonds Post Longest Losing Streak Since March 2011
U.S. 10-Year bond yield at 2.236%, second-highest close in 2015
By Min Zeng
Updated May 6, 2015 4:01 p.m. ET
A selloff in U.S. government bonds continued for an eighth consecutive session on Wednesday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to nearly the highest level of the year.
It was the Treasury bond market’s longest losing streak since March 2011. The yield on Germany’s 10-year government debt climbed to the highest level since December. Bond prices fall as their yields rise.
The selloff underscores the risk bond investors, who have benefited from capital gains over the past year, are facing when sentiment sours. Even a moderate rise in bond yields—and a corresponding fall in prices—could more than offset income from paltry interest payments.
Concerns have been growing lately over whether the bond market’s valuation is getting stretched. The angst has been the most pronounced in German government debt, where the 10-year yield tumbled to near zero in late April, driven by the ECB’s stimulus.
“We are in a correction,” said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. in New York.
In late afternoon trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 2.236%, compared with 2.174% on Tuesday.
It was the second-highest closing level for the yield in 2015. The yield was up 0.318 percentage points over the past eight trading days, the most since Feb. 17.
The magnitude of the selloff reminds some investors of the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013, when bond markets were rattled by worries over reduced bond buying from the Federal Reserve.
Concerns over liquidity—the ease with which investors sell or buy a financial asset—have been growing among global investors across a broad arena of assets, ranging from bonds to currencies to stocks.
…
Fed chatter about markets poised to increase.
Market Pulse
Fed’s Evans: Get used to Fed warning about financial markets
Published: May 7, 2015 8:59 a.m. ET
By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Investors should get used to the Federal Reserve discussing market stability issues, said Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Fed, on Thursday. Many analysts have argued that the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy has fostered instability, so it’s “incumbent” on the U.S. central bank to address instability risks, he said. “It is quite natural that…the chair of the Federal Reserve is going to make some comments about leverage, how that is working its way through the economy and might be imparting some risk to the financial sector,” Evans said in an interview on CNBC. On Wednesday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said stocks were quite high and could pose stability problems. Evans also remarked that stock valuations are high, but added that it was not his expertise to judge whether it was too high. He said Yellen’s larger message was that financial stability risks were moderate.
A simple interpretation of these MSM comments from Fed officials is that they are trying to let some air out of the market before interest rate liftoff, to offset the potential criticism that it was higher interest rates that caused stock and bond prices to fall.
This approach also opens up the option of sending stocks and bonds on another rally if future conditions don’t favor interest rate liftoff.
Multi-trillion dollar question:
What happens in the aftermath of “a confluence of factors that is unlikely to be repeated over the next hundred years”?
Need to Know
Why stocks may find it tough to wiggle out of the bond-market mess
Published: May 7, 2015 9:16 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the U.S. market’s open
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
Look at it this way — someday, you’ll have some great financial war stories to tell.
“The latter part of 2014 and the dawn of 2015 will probably represent one of those episodes in financial history when the fixed-income markets were gripped by a confluence of factors that is unlikely to be repeated over the next hundred years,” said Jefferies’s chief equity strategist, Sean Darby.
There’s fodder for your future tales of battles past this morning, as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s assets-are-bubbly comments continue to rattle global markets, which have already been duly freaked out by plummeting global bonds. She’s hit us at a tough time.
While some shout, “Off with her head!”, over at IG, analyst David Madden says Yellen was probably just trying to ready investors for an eventual hike. “The Fed are fully aware that ultra-low interest rates have been a huge factor behind U.S. equities hitting all-time highs this year, and the last thing the U.S. central bank wants is a crash when rates start to rise,” he says.
Or maybe she and the rest of her Fed minions are as confused as the rest of us. That’s the theory from Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, who notes that Fed officials have been pretty silent since the last meeting. He says they’re probably struggling to work backups in bond yields and oil prices into their policy-making decisions.
…
work backups in bond yields and oil prices into their policy-making decisions.
Backups in oil prices but you say that is “unpossible”. I am paraphrasing.
If the rock of higher bond yields keeps hammering the scissors of higher oil prices, guess which will prevail?
Finally, Yellen exerts her independence from Bernanke. Bernanke made it clear on his blog in early April that he thinks financial stability and bubble-popping are best done by methods other than Fed monetary policy. Not saying either one is right or wrong, only observing they are beginning to diverge.
Zimbabe Ben and Yellen the Felon are both creatures of the .1%. Enriching a corrupt and venal oligarchy at the expense of the 99% is their sole mandate.
How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat?
Wisconsin Repubs pushing bill to limit food stamps to two-thirds “beef, pork, chicken, fish, fresh produce and white potatoes” and prohibit purchase of “crab, lobster, shrimp or any other variety of shellfish.”
If he signs the bill, it’ll be Paul Walker’s version of the nanny state. Smaller government, indeed. Now, I winced when some Democrats pushed the soda bans. Gov’t shouldn’t micromanage food choices. But this takes the cake. Except the GOP won’t let ‘em buy cake.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/07/wisconsin-food-stamps_n_7231278.html
I think that if the taxpayers are paying for someone’s food they can insist that it is nutritious. If people are spending their own money, they can buy Cheetos. However, seafood is very good for the brain and there is no reason to prohibit people from buying it, except to be punitive. So Walker is wrong on this.
The whole thing is odd. The government continues to support the production end of food supply with farm subsidies, but now wants to limit subsidies on the consumption end. Which means we either pay more farmers for fallow acres or increase food exports. I don’t get it.
It seems these politicians keep borrowing and expanding the money supply to help these folks while the guy who actually produces has to pay higher costs via a debased currency.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/06/global-temperature-down-in-april-just-7100ths-of-a-degree-above-normal/
Wildlife first to leave CA:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/animals-in-the-wild-are-dying-for-a-drink-in-the-drought-stricken-west/2015/05/06/260312aa-eac6-11e4-9767-6276fc9b0ada_story.html
Then maybe the Persians and Chinese (fingers crossed) lol!
Wildlife first to leave CA:
So it is by intelligence?
Is there any more water for them to drink in Nevada or Arizona?
Hopefully they are headed to Oregon.
AZ, NM and NV are even worse off. Las Vegas is in huge trouble.
Time to think of the USA as a backyard and put in new sprinklers hooked up to the major rivers. Buy the water from other states or trade them for Almonds.
Hey now! It takes a lot of water to grow medical MJ.
OTOH, stoners aren’t too interested in fighting so go ahead and steal their water.
California dead pine tree count up to 12mil. Closing in on the ’70’s record of 14mil.
Personal retirement question…. if anyone knows right off the top of their head.
(Assuming that there is still a Social Security system in 8-10 years).
As I understand it, on retirement your benefit is determined by your income in the previous year/several years.
Does this mean it’s a bad idea to start working part time just prior to retirement?
And how would my benefit be reduced if I was still working as a part time 1099/independent contractor?
As I understand it, on retirement your benefit is determined by your income in the previous year/several years.
It is my understanding that for social security purposes it is over thirty years and they are moving to your entire working career. Now, private pensions and government pensions often set benefits based on either the highest year or the highest three years (mine for example). Off the top of my head comment.
I found this on google:
We base Social Security benefits on your lifetime earnings. We adjust or “index” your actual earnings to account for changes in average wages since the year the earnings were received. Then Social Security calculates your average indexed monthly earnings during the 35 years in which you earned the most.
http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf
Is there not a cap on the annual receipt one can get from SSI?
Fixr, in case your question has not already been answered:
To the best of my understanding, SS is based on your highest 35 years of above-the-table income. If no SS taxes were paid for that year, that year does not count. I’d recommend biting the bullet, setting up an account, and looking up your earnings statement on:
http://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/
The highest inflation adjusted 35 years of earned income.
Let me rephrase: It’s the highest 35 years of inflation adjusted earned income.
American indecision, “unpossible” according to most of this board Obama walks on water:
http://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-turkey-saudi-pact-help-anti-assad-rebels-144541170.html
I almost never see anyone post a thing about Obama except for you, Strawman Dan.
ft dot com > GlobalEconomy >
May 7, 2015 7:44 pm
Greek bailout talks near ‘drop dead’ moment
Peter Spiegel in Brussels
Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, right, and French counterpart Michel Sapin
©Getty
There have been so many “make-or-break” moments for Athens since Greece’s debt crisis first shook markets five years ago,that it is difficult to know when things might really break.
But this much is clear: unless Greece and its international creditors agree a deal soon to close out the country’s €172bn bailout, and then quickly agree another rescue, Athens is likely to run out of money and default on its debts. That would push it perilously close to crashing out of the eurozone.
With just seven weeks remaining before Greece’s current rescue runs out, it is unclear who might blink first.
Will Athens bow to pressure and accept tough new economic reforms to release the remaining €7.2bn in the programme and refill its dwindling coffers? Or will Greece’s increasingly divided creditors succumb to fears over “Grexit” and give Athens a pass?
…
Opinion: Why are stock prices so high? Follow the borrowed money
Published: May 7, 2015 12:14 p.m. ET
Connect the dots between cheap corporate debt and CEO pay
Reuters
By Brett Arends
Columnist
Maybe the bears and cynics and general party-poopers are all wrong. Maybe the stock market these days isn’t a giant Ponzi scheme.
Maybe it’s a shell game.
The cheerleaders on the Street of Shame won’t tell you this, but lurking behind the phenomenon of today’s skyrocketing stock prices is a surge in corporate borrowing.
Companies have been borrowing money with both fists, and spend the money to buy back shares and in the process drive up their share prices.
Despite all the claims that U.S. companies are awash with cash and have “never had it so good,” an analysis by investment bank SG Securities calculates that in reality Corporate America has “overspent” in recent years to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Over the past five years, equity prices have almost doubled — but so has the net debt of nonfinancial companies. Both have outstripped a 60% rise in profits.
Or, to put it another way, since March 2009, the cash pile of non-financial U.S. corporations has risen by $570 billion, but debt has risen by $1.6 trillion.
Indeed over the past year net debt has risen about 20%,SG estimates — while gross cash flows have risen a more modest 4%.
Indeed, “it is also those companies with the weakest sales growth that are buying back the most,” warns SG quantitative strategist Andrew Lapthorne in a new report for clients.
And that’s not all.
…
Market Extra
Here’s how central bankers can trigger a ‘triple taper tantrum’
Published: May 7, 2015 3:48 p.m. ET
Are we headed for a triple taper tantrum?
By Sue Chang
Markets reporter
Too much of a good thing can be bad for the markets.
A sustained recovery in Europe on top of Japan getting its act together could provide the impetus for the Federal Reserve to scale back its accommodative policies, resulting in what Morgan Stanley analysts have dubbed a “triple taper tantrum.”
“If fundamentals develop according to our forecasts, then we expect a triple tapering by the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan in 2016,” analyst Manoj Pradhan said in a report.
Europe is clearly showing signs of steady recovery in both inflation and growth and although Japan’s performance is more mixed, Pradhan believes the “tantrum stars” will eventually align with Japan and the U.S. turning in better economic numbers.
…
Well this puts Hillary in an awkward position. Her and her oligarch backers want cheap Mexican and Central American labor, but they also want the trans-pacific partnership which will depress US wages even further - which Latino activists recognize will harm their demographic more than anyone. Pick your sell-outs wisely, Hillary.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/7/immigration-activists-press-clinton-on-trans-pacific-partnership.html