May 13, 2015

Haves And Have-Nots

The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “Metro Denver leads the nation’s major metro areas for home price appreciation this year. The median price of a home sold in the Denver-Aurora area rose 17.2 percent, to $338,100 in the first quarter of 2015 from $288,400 in the first quarter of 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors report. Sherman, Texas, led the country with a 33.4 percent gain in the median sold price in the first quarter, rising to $123,400 from $92,500. Next was Port St. Lucie, Fla., where the median home sold price went to $172,000 from $139,900, up 22.9 percent.”

“Metro Denver’s median home sold price is now about 65 percent more expensive than the national average, but residents have only a median household income that is 18 percent higher to cover those heftier home payments, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “It’s getting crowded at the top of Manhattan’s apartment market. As condo developers chase billion-dollar paydays through the construction of luxury dwellings, the cranes dotting the city are sparking fears of a supply glut. Builders are plowing ahead with scores of condominiums priced above $20 million in skinny glass towers throughout Manhattan. Land, meanwhile, has gotten so pricey that developers buying many new sites must expect to sell units at more than $3,500 a square foot to make a profit, real-estate experts say—three times the break-even level of a few years ago.”

“There are signs demand for this rarefied product might be nearing its limits. The 1,004-foot green glass tower One57 remained about 25% unsold for much of last year. Its builder, Extell Development Co., lowered its expected total revenue from the building by about 4%, or $100 million, in part because of the slowdown, according to filings made with the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in Israel, where Extell has issued $300 million in debt.”

“‘There are a finite number of people that will buy these,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. As for the developers kicking off projects now, ‘You are going to have haves and have-nots.’”

The Real Deal on Florida. “Home prices are coming down to earth in Palm Beach County, after soaring by double-digits from 2011 to 2014. The county’s median home price stood at $279,000 in March, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. That represents the third consecutive monthly decline. ‘Things are definitely flattening out,’ David Cobb, South Florida regional director for research firm Metrostudy, told The Real Deal.”

“So what has caused the slide? Part of it is falling demand from hedge funds and other investors, Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, told TRD. Investors have accounted for 40 to 50 percent of sales in recent years. ‘In the last six months, they have slowed down their acquisitions, so that even though sales volume has increased, prices have dropped,’ he said. ‘About 90 percent of new construction is unaffordable for 90 percent of the population.’”

The Washington Post. “Eager buyers and motivated sellers have jump-started the D.C. region’s housing market this year. April’s housing data, released by RealEstate Business Intelligence, shows most jurisdictions saw price increases with the exception of Alexandria, Loudoun, Anne Arundel and Frederick. Alexandria’s median price sank to $459,500 last month from $517,000 in April 2014. Loudoun’s median price fell to $420,000 from $423,000. Anne Arundel’s median price dropped to $300,000 from $307,700. Frederick’s median price tumbled to $248,000 from $255,200.”

“Buyers are finding more choices as the number of homes on the market continues to swell, growing to 10,867 active listings last month. Fairfax County has the most homes for sale (3,669 properties), followed by Montgomery County (2,950). The 8,713 new listings that came on the market last month were the most for a 30-day period in the past 60 months.”

The Baltimore Sun in Maryland. “Home sales in the Baltimore area surged in April, but the median home price dropped $10,000 on average from last year. Inventories remain high. The median sales price last month in the Baltimore region was $230,000, down more than 4 percent from last year, according to RealEstate Business Intelligence. The inventory of homes for sale continued to increase for the 19th consecutive month, with 12,659 properties on the market at the end of April, an increase of 5.8 percent compared to last April.”

“John L. Heithaus, RBI’s vice president of sales, said the drop in the median home price wasn’t anything to worry about. ‘I find it to be misleading and, worse, irrelevant to a typical homebuyer,’ he said. ‘It’s like a silly number. What you do want to see is price appreciation happening in the market. Appreciation is building and home equity is building, and that’s a good thing for the community.’”

“The problems of the housing market crash remain a drag, particularly in Baltimore City. Foreclosure activity in the city remains stubbornly high, with 223 foreclosure sales and 34 short sales in April — nearly 38 percent of all homes sold. Across the region, there were 580 foreclosure sales and 119 short sales, about 25 percent of all sales. ‘You could say foreclosure activity is too strong, but that’s what Baltimore’s been for a long time,’ Heithaus said. ‘Baltimore is definitely one of the higher foreclosure markets in the country, so I think we have good reason to believe that for the next three to four years we’re going to see a high number of foreclosure sales as the air gets let out of the balloon.’”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “The second of two partially remodeled houses in Hollywood Hills West owned by Osbourne family members has sold for $2.25 million — $100,000 less than they paid for it eight years ago. Held in the names of parental units Ozzy Osbourne and Sharon Osbourne, the property was reported to be daughter Aimee Osbourne’s home. Sister Kelly Osbourne’s larger place next door sold a week earlier for $2 million. That 1961 contemporary has 2,538 square feet of living space and had been purchased nine years earlier for $2.125 million.”




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69 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 03:26:34

‘Home sales and new contracts across Greater Baltimore both increased by more than 20 percent in April. At the same time, however, there are a lot more homes on the market. The housing inventory crept up to 12,659 available units, a 5.8 percent increase over April 2014. New listings jumped 10.9 percent to 6,204, the highest April level since 2007.’

‘The Baltimore City market, meanwhile, continues to be skewed by foreclosures and short sales. Distressed sales in April accounted for about 38 percent of all homes sold in Baltimore City. The year-over-year median sales price in the city dropped from $119,700 to $102,750”

 
Comment by rallying the base
2015-05-13 03:54:34

Denver: an overpriced sh*thole whose time has passed. Was nice while it lasted…

Comment by scdave
2015-05-13 06:50:24

Denver: an overpriced sh*thole ??

Overpriced ?? Fair enough….sh*thole ?? Why ??

Comment by rallying the base
2015-05-13 07:16:29

Traffic.

Comment by scdave
2015-05-13 07:21:05

Traffic = Jobs…

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Comment by rallying the base
2015-05-13 07:42:39

People move here from Chicago, Toronto, et cetera and comment about how little traffic there is here. I moved here from a city with the infrastructure for a 1,000,000 population (that was once the fifth largest city in America) but now has 400,000 population, so I notice it more.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 07:58:38

People move here from Chicago, Toronto, et cetera and comment about how little traffic there is here.

I had the pleasure recently of crossing Denver from south to north at rush hour on I-25. Not a pleasant experience (and not a routine one for me) but I have definitely seen far worse in other cities.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-05-13 08:36:33

I’ve had my worst domestic traffic experiences in Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington, D.C. Los Angeles, curiously, wasn’t so bad. Orlando is tough if you traverse it during rush hour on I-4. Miami is tough too, in part because everyone drives so crazily. Last time I was there I almost had four accidents in my first five minutes on the road.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2015-05-13 16:12:56

If you like gridlock, just go to Seattle. You can seriously just be parked on the Interstate for hours.

 
 
 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 12:09:10

Denver is better than half of the country, it sure beats Baltimore. It is not Calif, but not that bad either, it has Boulder!

I prefer ABQ for the sunshine and lower COL.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 07:55:59

Denver: an overpriced sh*thole whose time has passed

Heard an interesting anecdote on the commie radio station (KGNU) this morning. Apparently the free sh!t army in Boulder County is returning unused Section 8 vouchers because they can’t find anything to rent. For those not from this neck of the woods, Boulder County is more than just The People’s Republic of Boulder, it includes some more low brow and downmarket cities like Longmont, or as I like to call it “El Longmonto”

Comment by scdave
2015-05-13 10:29:27

“El Longmonto”

LOL….

 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 12:13:20

The house cleaners, dish washers and room cleaners need to live somewhere.
Boulder is a great city!! Not as nice as Santa Fe, but a top 15 for sure.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 13:10:32

Problem is that Longmont is bubbly now too as people “drive until they qualify”.

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Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 13:41:42

Problem for them. Not for me.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 10:34:47

I understand that you are a free squad. Is there not another state with better traffic, better rainfall, similar mountains, similarly promis. Millenial women, and *ahem* similar legal views where you could be happy? Might have to give up a few gunz tho.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 11:33:45

Everyone wants to live in Colorado ;-)

Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 12:15:00

Not true. If you live on the coast of CA between Ventura and Santa Cruz it doesn’t get any better for quality of life in the WORLD! Bring your own job.

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Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 13:11:32

You did see my wink, didn’t you?

 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 13:51:04

I though it was a smiley with a bump on his head. ;)

 
 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-05-13 14:38:59

When I was growing up there many moons ago we had a saying and bumper stickers everywhere “Don’t Californiacate Colorado” Wonder when that is gonna pop up again.

 
 
Comment by Mugsy
2015-05-13 04:01:55

“As condo developers chase billion-dollar paydays through the construction of luxury dwellings, the cranes dotting the city are sparking fears of a supply glut.”

This is excellent news because it means that many of the $20,000,000 condos will come down in price and be affordable to the majority of NYC’s working class families. Thank God they’ve allowed all of that dirty Chinese and Russian money to prop up the markets in so many cities around the globe.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 05:33:37

‘New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is calling for a new tax on the sale of houses, co-ops and condominiums worth more than $1.75 million, part of a wider political deal that would extend tax breaks for developers and create another revenue source for city housing programs.’

‘The proposal was endorsed by the Real Estate Board of New York, an industry group long dominated by large developers.’

‘For some rank-and-file real-estate brokers, however, the deal wasn’t necessarily welcome. They said the new ” mansion tax” of up to 1.5% on top of existing transfer taxes paid by buyers and sellers could put the brakes on the city’s roaring residential-property market.’

“I would just love the mayor to help me by taking me by the hand to show me that $1.75 million mansion in Manhattan,” said Leonard Steinberg, president of Compass, a brokerage based in Manhattan.’

‘The city estimated the tax would affect 10% of all transactions. But in Manhattan it would affect many more deals. A review of market-rate transactions found that 27.6% of all Manhattan deals would have required the payment of the new tax last year, including 68% of townhouse sales, and 39.4% of condo transactions.’

‘Pamela Liebman, president of the Corcoran Group, said she was briefed by the real estate board some time ago and that she opposed the tax. “I think it could really cool the market,” she said. “We are already at a point where prices are high and there is a limited amount people will want to pay.”

‘ Alicia Glen, deputy mayor for housing and economic development, said the mansion tax was a “fair tax that allocates burden appropriately.” “There is a real recognition by everybody that the frothiness and the strength of the condo market is something that New Yorkers should be able to collectively take advantage of.”

Comment by 2banana
2015-05-13 06:46:38

It is kinda funny watching people who voted for a socialist complain when they get socialism…

Comment by scdave
2015-05-13 07:04:07

It is kinda funny watching people who voted for a socialist complain ??

Whats not funny is the people who voted for a war criminal that didn’t complain and still don’t…

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 07:21:09

Taxes on these condos was very low, one reason they are being used to park money. Don’t forget the NYT series recently on the money laundering going on there.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 08:07:25

For a $5 million dwelling, the new tax would extract an additional $75K. If that’s enough to cool the market then maybe the market should be cooled.

 
 
Comment by Dman
2015-05-13 07:48:50

“It is kinda funny watching people who voted for a socialist complain when they get socialism…”

A slight tax on the purchases of the 1% is socialism? Do you even know what socialism is?

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Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 10:09:14

You just know that once he’s old enough banana boy will be the first in line to get his Social Security and Medicare bennies, even though in his own words they are “entitlements”.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 11:33:19

Actually I’m kinda curious myself. What IS socialism in this context? Because this appears to be on the socialism track, at least in theory. The “it’s only a slight amount of money” is not a good argument — what would be your threshold for a “socialist” amount of tax?

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-05-13 16:49:11

Socialism is the debil!

 
 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 13:43:45

It funny, in a sad way, when people don’t even bother to look up the definition of socialism.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-05-13 18:03:15

When you’re a wingnut, words mean what you say they mean.

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 08:02:37

So instead of having 10 megabuck Manhattan condos they don’t live in or rent out, developers are expecting every oligarch to buy 10 more.

I guess these are our “ghost cities”. Wouldn’t it be interesting if the world’s oligarchs bought every apartment and condo in Manhattan and no one lived there anymore?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-05-13 04:24:09

Thr Osbourne child units cashing out of Hollywood Hills at a loss makes you wonder whether they may have overpaid eight years ago, or even if the Echo Bubble’s days are numbered.

Comment by Double Flip Triple Gainer
2015-05-13 05:25:26

“or even if the Echo Bubble’s days are numbered.”

Start counting, Professor. And I don’t think you even need two hands when it comes to the toddlin’ town I live in.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-05-13 05:28:26

My family learned the downside of long-term home ownership within five miles of Ferguson ground zero earlier this year.

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-05-13 08:14:34
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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-05-13 18:59:15

Thanks for sharing. My folks had bad luck of time and location to sell their place.

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-05-13 06:32:35

Speaking of celebrities, Hollywood, and the echo bubble, I saw to my amazement that one of the Kardashians — Kourtney’s partner Scott Disick — is now flipping houses. A post on Stockman’s blog asks rhetorically “who needs shoeshine boys?”

Comment by Bluto
2015-05-13 10:58:48

There is a very good post on Kardashian flipping and on Bubble 2.0 in general at
http://mhanson.com/archives/1788

 
 
Comment by scdave
2015-05-13 06:46:17

Yeah..I picked up on that too Pbear…8 & 9 years ago and still under what they paid…

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-05-13 19:05:23

Hard to tell if the Osbourne family experience is representative of the local market. Their fame and fortune could have made them an easy mark.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 05:29:42

‘Lenders started 218 home foreclosures in Worcester County during March, up 106 percent over the same month last year, according to new data. The Warren Group, publisher of the trade journal Banker & Tradesman, reported that lenders statewide started 1,108 foreclosures during March. That was up 68 percent from the same month a year ago.’

‘Foreclosure activity has been on the rise in Massachusetts as lenders work through bad loans from the housing bubble and economic recession. Worcester County again led all counties with the most new foreclosure actions.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 06:07:21

‘The county’s median home price stood at $279,000 in March, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. That represents the third consecutive monthly decline. ‘Things are definitely flattening out,’ David Cobb, South Florida regional director for research firm Metrostudy, told The Real Deal’

The Palm Beach Post went behind a pay wall long ago, but I can see the headlines. And there are other papers; the Sun Sentinel. This flattening out isn’t being talked about much. Good luck finding real reporting here:

http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/s/business/

I did come across this in Florida:

‘Investor inflates value of two Sarasota houses through internal deals’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 06:30:21

‘Part of it is falling demand from hedge funds and other investors, Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, told TRD. Investors have accounted for 40 to 50 percent of sales in recent years. ‘In the last six months, they have slowed down their acquisitions, so that even though sales volume has increased, prices have dropped,’ he said. ‘About 90 percent of new construction is unaffordable for 90 percent of the population.’

And this earlier this week:

‘The cost of building homes is always on the rise. But never is the increase more apparent than during a strong rebound and growth period like parts of Montana — and the rest of the country — are experiencing now. Statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau show Montana building permits for single- and multi-family homes in March were up 75 percent over last year. Lot prices in and around Bozeman are still cheaper than they were in 2007, but they’ve nearly doubled from three years ago, said Brian Popiel, chairman of the Southwest Montana Building Industry Association.’

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9009

Doubled in 3 years. Talk with a builder, they’ll tell you that if land doubles, the type of house will double. At least. So why are they bidding up the lots? Because they can make more money and the government will back the loans. People buy them because they expect to make money on it.

‘Though Bozeman hardly has a glut of houses overall, the current boom in the larger homes market may lead to a time when there are too many homes that Bozemanites can’t afford, Popiel said. ‘Everything I’m seeing points me to (the notion) that we would get a glut of houses in the $350,000-$450,000 range,’ he said. ‘That takes a pretty sizable paycheck to get there. And Bozeman doesn’t have that many of those jobs.’

Comment by snake charmer
2015-05-13 06:42:15

‘About 90 percent of new construction is unaffordable for 90 percent of the population.’
__________________________/

There we go. The heresy that few doth speak. Will anyone running for president say that?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-05-13 06:46:33

Case in point:

‘It’s going to be a long, hot summer for anyone looking to buy a home in the Greeley/Evans housing market. While Fort Collins saw a 22 percent increase in median sales prices, Greeley/Evans median sales price only increased 15 percent. Loveland/Berthoud saw a 12 percent increase in median sales prices.’

‘“Multiple offers, competition, prices above the list price and other factors are influencing this ‘seller’s market,’ but also making it very difficult for buyers,” said Chalice Springfield, CEO and managing broker at Sears Real Estate.’

‘Robbie Miner, a Sears Real Estate agent who exclusively works with Baessler Homes, said he thinks the labor shortage and the cost of land are responsible for pushing up housing prices. Developed lots are becoming a hot commodity, so prices are rising there as well.’

“You could find lots for $20,000 to $25,000 18 months ago, and those same lots are selling for $55,000 to $65,000 now,” he said.’

That’s more than double in 18 months. Here’s your bubble Yellen.

‘Springfield said she is encouraging a purchase now rather than later. “With increasing housing prices and slightly higher interest rates, we are strongly encouraging buyers to purchase now even with the shortage in inventory,” she said.’

Of course you do, Chalice.

Comment by 2banana
2015-05-13 07:00:12

Get on the property ladder now or be priced out forever and become a bitter renter for the rest of your life.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 08:07:08

Loveland/Berthoud saw a 12 percent increase in median sales prices

From what I’m seeing, this is only happening at the low end in my little burg, where “cheap” (200K) houses sell in a single day. My neighbor is trying to unload his house for 500K, but has had no takers. He only owes 50K on it so I suggested he lower the price (they are empty nesters who no longer need the almost 6000 sq foot McMansion they have). Predictably, he says he doesn’t want to give it away.

 
Comment by A Dollop of Crow
2015-05-13 14:16:42

“Springfield said she is encouraging a purchase now rather than later.”

The parasitic slavering for a commission sociopath says buy? Lexus SUV lease must just about be up. Or more likely emergency Botox injection ASAP!

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2015-05-13 23:54:46

LOL.

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Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 08:08:25

‘Everything I’m seeing points me to (the notion) that we would get a glut of houses in the $350,000-$450,000 range,’ he said. ‘That takes a pretty sizable paycheck to get there. And Bozeman doesn’t have that many of those jobs.’

Few places have many of those jobs.

Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 10:53:21

You don’t need jobs with a pretty sizable paycheck. You only need jobs with half of a pretty sizable paycheck. Many larger cities have those, but probably not Bozeman.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-05-13 11:39:08

It depends on what you mean by “pretty sizable”. I’m sure that in the DC area $40 an hour doesn’t seem “pretty sizable” but I can assure you that in flyover that’s really big bucks.

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Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 17:29:50

It’s the two-income thing. Two $30/hr incomes can afford a $350K house, although it would be pretty tight. You’ll find that in bigger cities, perhaps Boise. But not in Bozeman, and rarely two incomes like that in one household.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 17:47:15

Doesn’t work like that Donk. Never has, never will.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2015-05-13 23:58:00

You’re not going to find many households in Boise with dual $30 per hour incomes. Boise is a fawking low-wage cowtown. Oh, and if we’re now pricing house based on dual incomes, that means OVER HALF will be coming back onto the market due to divorce. So, the churn is much greater. In the words of the worst President in the history of the United States: “This sucker could go down…”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2015-05-13 07:49:52

most jurisdictions saw price increases with the exception of Alexandria, Loudoun, Anne Arundel and Frederick.

Loudon, Anne Arundel, and Frederick are the far-flung McMansion counties where you drive until you can buy. HBB predicted that the bubble pop would hit the outer burbs first, as house values for overpriced McMansions dropped and Millenials continue to shack up and rent downtown.

Don’t know what’s going on with Alexandria.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-05-13 14:37:51

Alexandria seemed totally dead when I was there in March - lotsa restaurants and no ‘for sale’ signs from what little I saw. But then it was cold while I was there.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 09:22:29

“Haves And Have-Nots”

Haves=A big pile of cash and no debt

Have-Nots=A big fat debt obligation for 30 years on a depreciating asset at a grossly inflated price.

Brightwood Park, Washington DC List Prices Collapse; Down 40% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/brightwood-park-washington-dc/home-values/

 
Comment by cactus
2015-05-13 09:25:07

I read on the boglehead website comments about all the new millionaires after the big run in the stock market.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 09:25:11

“according to the National Association of Realtors”

That’s the problem.

The solution?

Denver, CO List Prices Crater 9% YoY As Oil Bust Spreads

http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/

 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 12:07:03

It really is a bad to time to be a buyer.

I like to follow the “new construction permits” graph.

 
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-13 13:48:22

Mom and dad could live in Santa Maria, CA, both work for Costco and afford a mortgage on an average home. Same with ABQ and hundreds of other cities.

It is not that bad out there if you move out of Baltimore and at least graduated from a 2-yr college and have all your teeth.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 15:38:15

Your calculator is broke Jalopy.

 
 
Comment by Florida Skeptic
2015-05-13 15:52:21

“Home prices are coming down to earth in Palm Beach County, after soaring by double-digits from 2011 to 2014. The county’s median home price stood at $279,000 in March, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.

I do not know where they are getting pricing from, but the county records I see support the values on Zillow for $215,000 for the median sales price in March.

http://www.zillow.com/palm-beach-county-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 16:27:49

Alexandria, VA List Prices Dive 9% YOY; Inventory Balloons As Demand Craters

http://www.movoto.com/alexandria-va/market-trends/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-13 16:46:29

Broomfield, CO List Prices 10% YoY; Declining Prices Spread Nationally

Alexandria, VA List Prices Dive 9% YOY; Inventory Balloons As Demand Craters

http://www.movoto.com/broomfield-co/market-trends/

 
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