Capitol Report
Greenspan sees another taper tantrum once rates rise
By Lei Xuan of Medill News Service
Published: May 13, 2015 12:59 p.m. ET
Former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board Alan Greenspan in 2014
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Wednesday that markets will get another “taper tantrum” when the Fed raises interest rates for the first time in about nine years.
“Just remember we had the taper tantrum. And we are going to get another one,” said Greenspan to a room of 400 people at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington.
In May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the central bank would soon slow its bond purchasing program, the market experienced a shock.
“(Interest rates) normalization is great, but the process of getting there is going to be very rocky,” the former Fed chief said.
Greenspan also shared his thoughts on investment to private equity fund managers. “The best strategy for equity investment has always been: Buy and hold and forget it,” he said. “Once you start to try and trade the market – I don’t care how good you are, how smart you are — you will not beat an index fund.”
“Remember, you are not just buying good stocks,” the 89-year-old economist said, “you are buying stocks, which you think are better than somebody else’s.”
When asked about his views on emerging economies, Greenspan said the BRICS countries “no longer share many characteristics.” BRICS refers to the once-popular grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
“The double-digit gains of China are over,” Greenspan said. However, he suggested looking at China’s living standard rather than its GDP numbers.
” However, he suggested looking at China’s living standard rather than its GDP numbers.”
My understanding is that there are tens of millions of rural Chinese, who currently are not even allowed to move to the booming cities, who are patiently awaiting their promised turn at amassing wealth in the new economy.
Who’s going to tell them the miracle is drawing to an end, and they should be happy with their dirt floor huts, because the people in the cities and on the coast are almost middle class now?
ft dot com > Markets >
Capital Markets
May 11, 2015 11:11 pm
US government bond market hit by sell-off
Robin Wigglesworth, US markets editor
The US government bond market suffered its worst sell-off in more than two months on Monday as contagion from the European bond rout rolled across the Atlantic, pushing US borrowing costs towards their highest closing levels this year.
The US Treasury market has felt the heat from the turmoil in eurozone debt markets in recent weeks, but has generally held up better than most European government bonds, which have suffered a sharp reversal from the quantitative-easing inspired rally earlier this year.
The US resilience evaporated on Monday, as the 10-year Treasury yield shot up by 13 basis points — the most since March 6 — to 2.28 per cent. The 10-year yield touched a 2015 intraday high of 2.31 per cent last week, but Monday’s close was the highest closing level this year. German government bonds suffered further falls, but the benchmark 10-year Bund yield only rose 6bp to 0.6 per cent.
Most analysts and investors have attributed the gyrations to an overdue reversal of stretched and crowded trades, with the turmoil exacerbated by a dearth of liquidity in bond market trading.
“A trickle of selling is turning into a torrent,” said William O’Donnell, head of US rates strategy at RBS. “Bonds have been overbought for some time now . . . The risk is that we now see a very significant correction.”
In the US longer-dated Treasuries have taken the biggest hit, with the 30-year yield climbing 13bp to above the 3 per cent mark for the first time in 2015. That has lifted the difference between the five and 30-year yields to 145 basis points, the most since November.
The jump in the “term premium” — the extra interest investors demand to buy longer-dated bonds — comes after Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen last week warned that the rally in longer-dated Treasuries could be reversed quickly when the central bank begins to raise rates.
“Long-term interest rates are at very low levels, and that would appear to embody low term premiums, which can move, and can move very rapidly,” Ms Yellen said after a speech in Washington on Wednesday, according to newswires. “We need to be attentive, and are to the possibility that when the Fed decides it’s time to begin raising rates, these term premiums could move up, and we could see a sharp jump in long-term rates.”
…
World Europe Europe File Bond Market Rout: Born in the USA? Explanations of the great selloff in eurozone bonds tend to be too Eurocentric
A financial trader in Frankfurt speaks on a telephone as he monitors data on computer screens.
Photo: MARTIN LEISSL/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Simon Nixon
May 13, 2015 4:21 p.m. ET
No one knows for sure what caused the great bond market rout of the past few weeks. More than $450 billion of value has been wiped out. German 10-year government bonds, which in mid-April were yielding just 0.08%, are now yielding 0.64% having hit 0.73% earlier this week, back above the level in January before the European Central Bank announced its bond-buying program.
Eurozone bond markets have given back almost all the gains that they had made since the start of the year while U.S., U.K. and Australian bonds have also been caught up in the turmoil. There are plenty of theories, all of which may contain elements of the truth, but none are entirely convincing.
…
But the problem with all these explanations is that they are too Europe-centric and ignore the fact that this has been a global selloff. Fears over a Greek accident might explain a selloff in longer-dated peripheral eurozone bonds, but not a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, which one might expect to rally were there a risk of serious instability. And if the eurozone recovery was the trigger, then why have stocks sold off too, rather than rallying in the expectation of higher corporate earnings?
Indeed, it was U.S. Treasury yields that started rising first at the end of January. Looked at this way, the rise in eurozone yields over the past month is a belated catch-up, notes Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research. What’s more, this U.S. selloff has taken place against the backdrop of disappointing global economic indicators. Surveys of manufacturing activity in 16 out of 24 countries tracked by Mr. Harnett have been weakening since the start of the year, with U.S. and Asian data consistently coming in worse than expected. This deteriorating growth outlook has halted the rally in the dollar, which has now started to reverse some of its gains against the euro last year. That, in turn, has allowed commodity prices to start recovering in dollar terms, which is likely to lead to higher inflation than previously expected.
If Mr. Harnett is right, what lies behind the bond market selloff isn’t a eurozone reflation trade but a U.S. stagflation trade: rising yields may be signaling an unwelcome combination of slower global growth and higher inflation. This is consistent with recent eurozone surveys which suggest that the pace of growth may have slowed in the past few weeks; it is also consistent with the Bank of England’s decision to cut its U.K. growth forecasts in Wednesday’s Inflation Report. It also suggests that central banks, which have continued to loosen monetary policy this year, will be in even less of a hurry to stop printing money or start raising rates. That may put a floor on how far government bond prices fall—but it would also be a recognition that the global economy remains worryingly fragile.
A recent global bond market selloff has made investors dread a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” during which yields skyrocketed in a mere four months as government bonds got hammered.
In May 2013, after a mere suggestion of an imminent reduction in bond purchases by then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, panic spread in bond markets all over the world.
As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gained 140 basis points between May and early September 2013. And the rest of the world followed, with the yield on the 10-year German bond, known as the bund, rising by 80 basis points and the yield on the 10-year Japanese benchmark note gaining 20 basis points.
Fast forward to today, when since mid-April, 10-year government yields have soared all over the world — by 40 basis points in the U.S., 60 basis points in Germany and 15 basis points in Japan.
Is this move a precursor of a “Taper Tantrum: Part 2”?
Analysts have pointed out that the recent selloff is in some ways even worse than the 2013 tantrum. The current rout is “more severe than the taper tantrum in terms of speed but has a way to go to match the magnitude,” a report by LPL Financial noted.
The report looked back at the major bond pullbacks of the past 15 years, showing that the current correction is among the swiftest. It is in fact on pace, and of similar magnitude, to the 2003 mortgage-backed securities related sell-off. But it has not yet reached the magnitude of the 2013 taper tantrum.
Looking back at the major bond pullbacks of the past 15 years shows that the current selloff is among the swiftest.
But analysts have also noted that there are three fundamental differences between 2013 and today’s market.
…
Dana Lyons, on his Tumblr blog, has taken a fresh look at what happens when 10-year Treasury yields ratchet up from a 52-week low to a five-month high within four months. Including the current move, he says this has happened 15 times since 1962.
“Collectively, the impact of the reversal spikes in yields has not been kind to equities,” he says. Lyons backs it up using this table, which shows that from the short to the long term, the yield spike has a been a “poor omen” for stocks (He’s also got a chart on his blog that maps out individual moves).
Of course, there have been a few exceptions — 1996, 2003 and 2010 and others — but he says many of those markets bore little resemblance to what we’re seeing now.
Whether history proves to repeat itself, this may lend credence to those who can’t shake worries about the potential market fallout from a bond rout.
And while some, such as Nouriel Roubini, don’t expect any Fed rate rage, you’ve got ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan saying a shock is coming once a hike arrives, just like before.
Futures for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have found some strength, as second thoughts about retail sales have given way to speculation about a delayed rate hike.
The euro is beating up the dollar, pushing above $1.14, as that rate view beats nowheresville Greek debt talks. European bond yields are up a bit. European stocks aren’t really going anywhere.
Oil futures were switching between gains and losses. Gold is tipping higher. The World Gold Council says global demand for gold fell 1% in the first quarter. Oh, and Chinese iron-ore prices fell off a cliff overnight.
…
“The World Gold Council says global demand for gold fell 1% in the first quarter.” I saw this too, and the analyst explained this is a good sign because the gold prices are relatively stable compared to a year ago with larger variations.
One could say the police who joined in on looting the 7/11 were acting so as to not miss the boat. Why leave all those potato chips and Slim-Jims on the table?
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-14 06:38:10
The answer is the same Poet.
Paying a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset while demand is collapsing is a guaranteed loss.
Plano, TX List Prices Crater 20% As Crude Oil Crashes
My friend pays more in taxes in a year than I pay in rent. Two recent repair jobs cost another two years worth of rent. And it costs $100 a month for someone to cut the grass in that nice big yard. Yep, home appreciation is a wonderful thing, as long as you don’t count the losses caused by maintenance, taxes, repairs, etc. Most housing boosters conveniently omit these numbers when doing their realtor math. And don’t forget the minus sign when prices crash again.
Comment by rms
2015-05-14 08:04:20
“My friend pays more in taxes in a year than I pay in rent.”
Property taxes I assume. Is he living well, e.g., tapping some trim, numerous vacations, etc., or just another $30k millionaire?
Comment by Dman
2015-05-14 08:11:22
Speaking of realtor math, what percentage of mortgage interest must still be paid after interest is deducted from taxable income? 2/3rd? That’s one gigantic plus sign on the expense side.
Comment by Dman
2015-05-14 08:15:59
He’s doing well enough, but would be doing much better if that money were being put into an IRA instead. He can’t wait to retire and sell his house and start renting instead. He admires my carefree lifestyle. And rightfully so.
Comment by Max Power
2015-05-14 12:29:38
At least one of two things must be true about your friend:
1) His house is wayyyyyyy nicer than yours
2) He’s an idiot
“what are your opportunity costs of missing the boat in 2009 -2015?”
The opportunity cost of missing the boat on stocks in 2009-2015 was the maintenance expenses, taxes, insurance, and interest on stucco boxes the same time.
The following issues/topics are forbidden to be discussed on this Blog today because Drudge has an article about them:
More Secret Service scandals
The train derailment in Philly
Obamatrade
Banks gone bad and the economy
Bees dying
Oil Prices
Hillary running for president
The NYC mayor going national
Baltimore
Republicans running for president
Russia
Making cash illegal
Artificial Intelligence
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
Any logical or thoughtful discussions of these topics will be replied by 17 year-olds and bitter progressives in their parents basement with:
As seen in the Drudge Report
Talking points by Drudge
Your meme has been set by Drudge
And now back to the Drudge Report
Fortunately - Kim Kardashian’s butt and Dancing with Stars is NOT on the Drudge Report so those topics are wipe open - so have at it.
A multi-front war in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Ukraine. After his dream ticket of Walker/Cotton gets elected in 2016 I hope his children all get drafted and the national debt blows past $30 trillion.
Who will probably bankroll Hillary and assorted other billionaire “environmentalist” candidates/crusades, whilst I donate money to Rand Paul, vote for him in my state’s Republican party caucus next February, and after Sheldon Adelson buys him out of the primaries (or has him murdered if he starts getting too much traction), then I vote for the Libertarian party candidate in the general election.
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Comment by MightyMike
2015-05-14 13:33:31
Have you ever taken a look at randpaul.com?
At the top you’ll find the words
DR. RAND PAUL
DEFEAT THE WASHINGTON MACHINE
There’s a video loop apparently going on behind those words. I’m not sure what the Washington machine is. Maybe it means something to some people.
Scroll down a bit and there are a couple of photographs with links that can be clicked on. One says, “Learn more about Rand and Kelley” with a picture of Rand and the wife. I didn’t click, but I assume that this is another politician who wants people to vote for him because he has a nice family. The other link reads, “Liberty, not Hillary”. Gee, that’s clever.
If you scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page, you’ll see the word Issues with a list of 15 issues in plain black and white. The environment is not one of the issues listed there.
This has the to be the most ironic post in HBB history.
Banana sneers at the list of common HBB memes — which by the way are posted as sarcasm — and then proceeds to launch into his own pet paymaster memes, the ones he’s been pounding for years. And with no sarcasm whatsoever.
I have a theory that 2b works in a room filled with other Koch Industries employees, and all they do all day long is post preselected links to articles funded by Koch Industries in as many websites as they can.
It is kinda funny that liberals/socialists think that anyone who disagrees with the below statement must be paid to think that way.
“Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes is the only way to solve problems.”
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Comment by oxide
2015-05-14 10:51:47
And the memes just keep a-comin’…
Comment by MightyMike
2015-05-14 10:54:25
Unless you can find someone who actually agrees with that assertion, you should assume that everyone disagrees with it. In which case, it’s unlikely that everyone in America is getting paid to disagree with it.
Q: What is the first things a public union does when he/she retires?
A: Moves to a low tax and right to work state.
————————
Why CalPERS retirees flee California
Sacramento Bee | May 11, 2015 | Jon Ortiz
“Compared to California, Las Vegas was a no-brainer,” said Beck, a former Southern California school district maintenance administrator who moved here in 2000. “I decided that if I could handle the heat three months out of the year, I needed to move to where my retirement check would be tax-free.”
About 15 percent of the 561,000 pensioners in the California Public Employees’ Retirement System live their golden years outside the Golden State, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of fund data by The Sacramento Bee. The vast majority have flocked to low-tax or no-tax states, creating a veritable river of cash that flows out of California and into cities such as Las Vegas; Reno; Tucson, Ariz.; and Grants Pass, Ore.
Overall, CalPERS sent $2.16 billion to roughly 81,000 beneficiaries living elsewhere in 2013, based on monthly pension payments made in December of that year, the latest for which CalPERS data are available.
“It’s obvious that California’s taxes and the cost of living drive some people out of the state,” said Mark Beach, AARP’s Sacramento-based communications director, when told about Nevada’s popularity among CalPERS retirees. “I’m surprised the number of them leaving isn’t higher.”
Joe Beck, a Republican, said he figured California’s cost was exceeding its value when he was approaching retirement 16 years ago.
“You could see it coming in California, the big tax increases, the poorer quality of living,” he said.
Now, Beck watches California headlines with a grim satisfaction as the state has cycled in and out of fiscal crises and hiked fees and taxes. Gov. Jerry Brown’s successful bid to raise taxes in 2012 was, Beck said, the worst.
“You know what the difference is between the people on the Titanic and people in California who voted for Brown?” Beck said, chuckling during a recent interview at his home. “The people on the Titanic didn’t have a choice.”
Yes, Joe Beck is smart. Make your living and get a fat pension from a high-tax state, then retire to a low tax state. Now that your kids got to go to great schools and colleges back home, you can retire to the Villages in Florida and pay little taxes. Those stupid Southerners don’t want good schools anyway.
Not my point. For the past 50 years, Yankees have been enjoying the fruits of union an/or good government jobs and benefits. They built their children’s future on the high tax base that provided. Now when they want to retire, they move to a state that with low taxes and demand even lower. That is, now that my kids have finished school, I don’t want to pay for yours. They don’t want to pay for anything here.
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Comment by 2banana
2015-05-14 08:21:57
Hmmmmm…..red states dominate, some purple, no solid blue.
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U.S. News’ 10 Best High Schools, 2015
yahoo.com | May 12, 2015 | Alexandra Pannoni
1. School for the Talented and Gifted. Dallas, Texas.
For the fourth consecutive year, the School for the Talented and Gifted, a Dallas magnet school known as TAG, was ranked as the No. 1 public high school in the country.
2. BASIS Scottsdale in Arizona took second place in the national rankings for the second year in a row
3. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology. Alexandria, Virginia.
4. Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science and Technology. Lawrenceville, Georgia.
The School of Science and Engineering Magnet in Texas – located in the same facility in Dallas as TAG – climbed further up the top 10. It took the No. 5 spot after placing eighth in 2014.
Vaulting 17 places this year to No. 6 is Carnegie Vanguard High in Houston, Texas. Last year it ranked 23rd.
Academic Magnet High School in North Charleston, South Carolina, jumped to No. 7 from last year’s 16th place.
University High School in Tolleson, Arizona, was another big mover, moving up 21 places to crack the top 10 this year at No. 8.
The ninth-place school, Lamar Academy in McAllen, is one of four Texas schools to place in the top 10. Last year it was unranked.
And rounding out the top 10 is Gilbert Classical Academy High School in Gilbert, one of three Arizona schools to place in the top 10.
U.S. News factored in how effectively schools educated their least-advantaged students – those of black, Hispanic and low-income backgrounds.
Those “stupid southerners” keep electing conservatives who make no secret of the fact that they would rather protect the wealthy than improve the communities they represent. And all they have to do is talk about “values” to get elected. Whose fault is that?
Because only stupid people would disagree with this statement:
“Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can solve all our problems.”
It is funny - even retired public union goons who move have figured it out…
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Comment by oxide
2015-05-14 11:16:57
If taxes were the driver, then why aren’t they moving to South Dakota or Wyoming, the states with almost no tax at all? Oh, right, maybe those retirees are just moving to warmer states?
Comment by 2banana
2015-05-14 12:08:01
If taxes were the driver, then why aren’t they moving to South Dakota or Wyoming, the states with almost no tax at all? Oh, right, maybe those retirees are just moving to warmer states?
Weather plays a part
Family plays a part
Taxes plays a part
But ironically - NO ONE is moving to California to retire. Even with its great weather and beaches.
Comment by MightyMike
2015-05-14 12:45:30
It’s not just taxes. It’s the other costs of living. There are probably some people who move to California when they retire. They’re probably mostly rich people.
ILLANNOY is right on the heels of Cali -
Most AFSCME folk here who retire from City of Chicago - where do they head 6 months + a day? You got it Florida - the land of low taxes and sunshine.
85% of the pensioners are staying in Calif. yet 2banana and the newspaper make it sound like a mass exodus. The newspaper makes it sound like pensioners are only moving due to taxes or cost of living. I bet a good number is cuz they want to be close to grandkids, relatives, etc.
Q. How do you destroy the great cities of America?
A. Allow them to be run by democrats and public unions in a closed shop state where you are required to join the union as a condition of employment and where the union gives 99% of its campaign money to democrats.
And - public union goon pensions WILL BE PAID.
————————–
Moody’s downgrades Chicago schools, park district ratings
Associated Press | May 13, 2015 7:43 PM EDT
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the debt of both the Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Park District on Wednesday, a day after it downgraded the city’s bond rating to junk status.
Moody’s has given a Ba3 rating to the school district’s debt, down from a Baa3 rating, saying the district faces “increased strain on its precarious financial position” due to last week’s Illinois Supreme Court decision overturning state pension reform. It reduced the Chicago Park District’s rating to from Baa1 to Ba1, one notch below investment grade.
When Moody’s lowered the city’s bond rating on Tuesday, it noted Chicago’s tax base is “highly leveraged by the debt and unfunded pension obligations” of the city and overlapping governments. …
Sorry your “Blame the Democrats” theory doesn’t hold water. California has had multiple upgrades by Moody’s. The unemployment rate in blue Seattle is only 4.4% _and_ a high minimum wage.
How do you destroy a good state? Turn them deep red and do that voodoo economic nonsense. Just ask Kansas.
Two Baltimore City Jail Correctional Officers Caught On Video Looting A 7-11
Daily Caller | May 13, 2015 | Chuck Ross
Two correctional officers who work at the Baltimore City jail were suspended without pay Wednesday after video emerged showing them looting a 7-11 store during last month’s riots.
Tamika Cobb and Kendra Richard were charged with theft and two counts of burglary, according to a statement released by the Maryland Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services (DPSCS).
Investigators DPSCS and with the Intelligence and Investigative Division responded to a tip that the pair had joined in looting a closed 7-11 convenience store near downtown Baltimore on April 25. That was the first day of major unrest following the April 19 death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray.
The useful idiots always sound surprised when they discover they are nothing but useful idiots…
——————–
Guard Tells Dem Senator: You Can’t Take Notes About Obama’s Trade Agreement
cns.com | 5/13/15 | Melanie Hunter
Speaking on the Senate floor Tuesday, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) described how she was told by a guard to surrender her cell phone and that she could not take notes on the president’s trade agreement when she went to read it.
“Let me tell you what you have to do to read this agreement. Follow this: You can only take a few of your staffers who happen to have a security clearance, because – God knows why – this is secure. This is classified. It’s nothing to do with defense,” said Boxer.
“It has nothing to do with going after ISIS. It has nothing to do with any of that, but it is classified,” she added.
“So I go down with my staff that I could get to go with me, and as soon as I get there, the guard says to me, ‘Hand over your electronics. OK. I give over my electronics. Then the guard says, ‘You can’t take notes.’ I said, ‘I cannot take notes?’” said Boxer.
Replace Greece with (in order) Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Camden, Newark, Cleveland, Buffalo, Illinois, California, Rhode Island, New York and America…
Welcome to your hope and change future…
And public goon union pensions WILL BE PAID.
————————–
Just how is broke Greece paying its bills?
CNBC - 5/14/2015
Everybody knows that the Greek government’s coffers are almost empty, but over the last few weeks it’s managed to pay bills worth hundreds of millions of euros.
Earlier this week, the country scraped together enough cash to pay its latest loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it soon became clear that it did so in an unconventional way.
Here, we take a look at the desperate measures Greece is resorting to pay its bills.
What surprised analysts, however, was how it paid the bill - Greece emptied an IMF holding account to repay the loan, a Greek central bank official confirmed to CNBC Wednesday.
Athens is thought to raided its account for 650 million euros, and used 100 million euros from its cash reserves to make the payment.
In sum, Greece tapped its IMF reserves to pay back…the IMF.
Following the talks, Varoufakis said the liquidity situation in his country was “terribly urgent” and that Greece could run out of money within two weeks.
Another Greek government official, who also declined to be named due to the sensitive nature of reform talks, told CNBC Wednesday that Greece could not “go on with this uncertainty much longer.”
“In sum, Greece tapped its IMF reserves to pay back…the IMF.”
Isn’t this neat? This works because Greece doesn’t have to pay back to the IMF ALL of the money it owes to the IMF, instead it only has to MAKE A PAYMENT on all the money it owes.
As long as they can make a payment then the magic will continue to work. And if the magic can continue to work then the risks will be reduced. And if the risks are reduced then another loan can be prudently floated to Greece, and Greece then can take part of this loaned money and, somewhere down the road, make another payment to the IMF. And another. And another.
Don’t forget the state of Kansas. Who would have thought that a state with such a conservative Koch brothers backed governor could be such a basket case?
More tax cuts for the wealthy and more budget cuts for everyone else will make the economy grow. More and more. Funny how that didn’t actually work in Kansas.
Fewer and fewer regulations will help the economy grow and grow. More and more. Just look at how well the tourist industries did after BP covered the Gulf of Mexico with millions of gallons of oil.
Jan 2015 (Bloomberg) — California Governor Jerry Brown is faced with a dilemma other leaders would love to have as he releases his budget today: what to do with record tax revenue expected to leave the most populous U.S. state with a growing surplus.
The state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office projects California will take in at least $2 billion more in revenue this fiscal year than what is estimated in the budget.
“The state budget, after a decade of fiscal turbulence [Arnold (R)], is finally balanced — more precariously than I would like - but balanced,” Brown (D) told lawmakers earlier this week in his annual state of the state speech.
You can take California off of your list. Economy here is doing much better, one of the leading states in the US for job creation. Debt has been upgraded to A+.
the only people who think CA is poor are the ones who wish they lived here. Nothing “poor” about my town. Avg home is about $500k, rent for 2 bdrm is $1800. 300+ days of sun, no AC needed, no traffic, great wine! Greet local food! Mtn biking. Surfing. Fishing! Hiking!
Doesn’t get much better.
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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-05-14 11:34:07
It all sounds wonderful, except for the poverty induced by 10x income houses.
Comment by MightyMike
2015-05-14 11:38:05
Nothing “poor” about my town. Avg home is about $500k, rent for 2 bdrm is $1800. 300+ days of sun, no AC needed, no traffic, great wine!
What town is this? If there’s no traffic, you’re probably not in a part of California that has the jobs that pay well.
Comment by Max Power
2015-05-14 12:37:32
Sounds like lots of ways to spend money. How about income to actually support all that spending?
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-14 13:43:32
Yes. highest COL in CA, very low wages, high rents, highly rated college town.
Bring your own job or make only $60k if skilled and can compete with all the other skilled college grads.
It was # 5 on latest “best outdoor activity” towns.
Gonna rain soon.
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-14 13:51:23
Cal Poly is the Best In the West for 22nd Consecutive Year
Cal Poly again has been rated the best public-master’s university in the West in the U.S. News and World Report’s America’s Best Colleges guidebook — the 22nd consecutive year the university has earned the badge of honor.
Comment by MightyMike
2015-05-14 16:02:42
Yes. highest COL in CA, very low wages, high rents, highly rated college town.
Bring your own job or make only $60k if skilled and can compete with all the other skilled college grads.
Are you saving anything for retirement?
Comment by Califoh20
2015-05-14 16:31:04
I max my IRA every year plus some, but I believe in having fun while you are young enough to enjoy it. A bus trip around Europe at age 75 is not my style.
Two professionals sharing a place do well. You can always rent a room to student for $800 mo. Surfing, hiking, tennis and mtn biking are free.
How one couple saved $100,000 to buy a house in only 2 years by working on a yacht
Business Insider - Antonia Farzan - 5/13/2015
By working on yachts together — Shaun as a captain, and Kelsey as a chef — they’d live rent-free and have virtually no expenses.
Finding a job was easy. At the time, they were based in the Caribbean, one of the major destinations for private yachts and their owners, working odd jobs.
Shaun did marine carpentry and boat deliveries, while Kelsey worked on organic farms, worked as a gardener, and trained as a chef.
Positions for chefs, stewardesses (who serve meals and clean), and deckhands, who do basic maintenance work, generally don’t require any boating knowledge.
Ultimately, the Millers ended up on an 82-foot sailboat where they earned a combined $115,000 per year, which is a standard starting salary for a boat of that size.
They were able to immediately start saving most of the money that they earned. “On the boat, we had basically no expenses,” Kelsey says. “Our groceries were paid for, our uniforms were paid for, our toiletries were paid for, and we had a rental car wherever the boat was docked.” The boat’s owner even provided health insurance that covered them while they were on board.
“Because we had those two goals in mind and planned to move to shore after we got married and bought a house, we didn’t treat the money as disposable income,” Kelsey explains. “For people who make working on a boat into a lifelong career, it’s easier to spend money on clothing or expensive jewelry or fancy meals.”
Sailing into Newport one day in July in 2011, the couple both felt they were returning home, and decided to look at houses in the area. At that point, they’d been working on boats for two years and had saved up $100,000 towards a down payment.
“We weren’t really serious about it, and just started casually looking around,” Kelsey says.
But by October, they’d found their dream house and signed the papers. The turn-of-the-century farmhouse had a backyard large enough for a garden and a dog, two spare bedrooms for visiting family and friends, and was within walking distance of the beach.
After finalizing the sale, they immediately went back to work on the boat. “We basically emptied our accounts when we bought the house, but then replenished them really quickly,” Kelsey explains. With their basic living expenses covered, they were able to rebuild their cushion of savings while also making double payments on the mortgage.
“, the Millers ended up on an 82-foot sailboat where they earned a combined $115,000 per year, which is a standard starting salary for a boat of that size”
I’m not sure who sets the standard salaries for live-aboard help on medium-sized yachts, but it sure beats working in the oil patch. (Personally I’m a little dubious about those standard starting salaries for unskilled work.)
That sounds a bit like “running the ship type skills”. Wouldn’t he likely need a 200-ton master’s license for an 82-ft yacht?
(in addition to excellent references)
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-05-14 11:39:34
By “unskilled” I thought he was referring to this:
“Positions for chefs, stewardesses (who serve meals and clean), and deckhands, who do basic maintenance work, generally don’t require any boating knowledge.”
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-05-14 13:12:25
Yep, agreed there is plenty of unskilled labor to be done on a yacht.
But an unskilled couple certainly would be clearing six figures in their combined income.
Someone who can afford an 82-ft yacht probably wants a skilled captain and a skilled chef. I certainly would!
Falling production in the Eagle Ford means falling US production, shale oil still needs higher oil prices, as the article states they do anticipate higher prices but even after they get them, it will be months before they will drill and frack the wells:
It is ironic. Shale production is falling because it is not needed. This means the price has to go up! Nobody cares what you need the price to be.
China has been stockpiling to take advantage of the low price, thinking low price means price has to go up. Meanwhile their manufacturing continues to decline. Should be interesting when they are topped up.
Epic global bond rout is a QE success story - but it won’t last
The sudden surge in bond yields is a victory, a sign that markets are finally starting to believe that central banks have defeated deflation
Occam’s Razor is the sharpest way to cut through tangled explanations for the epic rout in global bond markets.
The simplest explanation is the best. “Frustra fit per plura quod potest fieri per pauciora.”
Bond yields are soaring because the world’s central banks have demonstrably done enough for now to stop deflation taking hold. The short-term monetary cycle is turning. The reflation trade is on.
The broad M3 money supply has been growing at a 7pc rate in the US over the past six months (annualized), and nearly 8pc in the eurozone. Fiscal austerity has run its course as well. Budget policy is no longer contractionary in either of the world’s two biggest economic blocs.
Unless the normal mechanisms of monetary policy have broken down altogether - which is possible, but would you bet your pension on it? - the burgeoning M3 data point to a reflationary revival of some sort later this year.
John Williams, the once dovish head of the San Francisco Fed, told Yahoo! Finance on Tuesday that the US economy is “running a little bit hot”. Rightly or wrongly, he chose to dismiss the economic relapse in the first quarter as a weather-blip. The world’s monetary superpower is chomping at the bit.
“But don’t bank on it. Albert Edwards, at Societe Generale, coined the term “Ice Age” long ago to describe this era of deflationary ascendancy. He is bracing for one final polar freeze before we all hyper-inflate our way out.”
The average U.S. worker has seen wages climb slowly over the past year. The average big-company chief executive has seen compensation jump far more substantially.
CEOs at the nation’s largest publicly traded companies received 373 times the compensation of the average production and nonsupervisory worker last year, according to a new report Wednesday by the AFL-CIO. Figures compiled by the union federation show that the gap widened from a 331-to-1 ratio in 2013 as overall CEO compensation rose nearly 16% last year. The average worker’s wages rose just 2.4%.
The average worker earned $36,134 in 2014, while the compensation for CEOs at S&P 500 companies averaged about $13.5 million, according to AFL-CIO calculations.
“Wages are high enough. The problem is prices are grossly inflated.”
+1 Indeed. One camp doesn’t have the IQ to “see” it, and the other camp just doesn’t want to talk about it especially if the wife is within earshot. Both camps are lösers!
Franchise Loans Keep Blowing Up, and the Government Keeps Backing
Bloomberg - May 14, 2015
Buying a franchise is a risky business. Seventeen percent of franchise loans guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration failed between 1991 and 2010, new data show. At the end of the period, nearly one in five franchise owners went splat.
The loans, made by private lenders, weren’t merely delinquent. Failed loans are those charged off by the SBA, which guarantees up to 85 percent of the value of working-capital loans through its 7(a) program. Even after liquidating collateral, which can include franchise owners’ homes, the government had to use taxpayer dollars to make the lenders whole.
Some franchises are worse bets than others. Meineke (22 percent), Quiznos (25 percent), and Huntington Learning Center (31 percent) had some of the worst failure rates among well-known brands.
Why does the government keep guaranteeing these loans, which are made by private lenders and backstopped by the SBA? The agency has argued that banks tend to stop approving loans for struggling franchises and that franchise failure rates are similar to failure rates for the overall lending program. The SBA didn’t respond to requests for data showing the failure rate for its working-capital program as a whole.
Liberals/Socialists/Democrats have the same modus operandi
Take any government program (obamaphones, healthcare, SBA, housing, the CRA, etc.).
Expand it, politicize it and use it to buy votes.
When it explodes - blame the administration that originally passed it when it was 1/1000 the size.
I am sure President Eisenhower never wanted the SBA to give out taxpayer money to a franchise that makes terrible sandwiches and which defaults at a rate of 25%.
Kinda like the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) - which Clinton used to pound banks to make terrible loans to buy minority votes - a leading cause (but not the only cause) of the housing bubble.
“With the new policy in full force, no loan is exempt; no bank is immune. For those who thumb their nose at us, I promise vigorous enforcement,” Janet Reno on the CRA.
Your onto something there. Seems like all these bogus loan programs work for awhile then the bubble breaks down and everyone starts pointing fingers. Then more money is printed to plug all the holes.
home loans
student loans
auto loans
business loans
Accountability is pretty much gone. Just print more money.
Kinda like the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) - which Clinton used to pound banks to make terrible loans to buy minority votes - a leading cause (but not the only cause) of the housing bubble.
Reagan Phones - yeah! that liberal clown tripled the deficit and gave amnesty to 3 mill illegals. I am mad too!
Bush OVERSAW THE HOUSING BUBBLE.
The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992 established an affordable housing loan purchase mandate for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and that mandate was to be regulated by HUD. Initially, the 1992 legislation required that 30 percent or more of Fannie’s and Freddie’s loan purchases be related to affordable housing. However, HUD was given the power to set future requirements. In 1995 HUD mandated that 40 percent of Fannie and Freddie’s loan purchases would have to support affordable housing. In 1996, HUD directed Freddie and Fannie to provide at least 42% of their mortgage financing to borrowers with income below the median in their area. This target was increased to 50% in 2000 and 52% in 2005. Under the Bush Administration HUD continued to pressure Fannie and Freddie to increase affordable housing purchases – to as high as 56 percent by the year 2008.[22] To satisfy these mandates, Fannie and Freddie eventually announced low-income and minority loan commitments totaling $5 trillion.[23] Critics argue that, to meet these commitments, Fannie and Freddie promoted a loosening of lending standards - industry-wide.[24]
Senate approves trade enforcement measure, clearing way for fast-track
The Hill | 05/14/2015 | ordain Carney and Alexander Bolton
The Senate took an initial step toward picking up President Obama’s trade agenda on Thursday by approving a controversial customs bill that includes language cracking down on currency manipulation by trading partners.
The legislation was easily approved in a 78-20 vote. Under rules adopted for the vote, 60 votes were needed for the measure to pass.
GOP presidential hopefuls Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) voted no, while Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.), another 2016 GOP candidate, voted yes. So did Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), who is considering a 2016 run.
Democrats had demanded a vote on the bill in exchange for supporting a later vote that would allow the Senate to begin debate on fast-track trade legislation, a key legislative priority for Obama. That vote is scheduled for 2 p.m. Supporters of the currency manipulation language frame the customs bill as a trade enforcement measure, and the vote gives some cover for Democrats who want to back fast-track.
It’s unclear, however, whether the customs bill will be picked up by the House. The Obama administration also doesn’t support the measure. It warned ahead of the vote on Thursday that the currency provisions “raise highly problematic questions” about if the legislation would violate current international trade agreements, though it stopped short of a veto threat.
The fast-track legislation would allow Obama to send a trade pact he is negotiating with Asian and Latin American countries to Congress for an up-or-down vote. Congress would not be able to amend the legislation under fast-track.
Puerto Rico’s economic woes worsen
The reporting for this article is so massively distorted that making sense of it is a challenge. A poor attempt follows.
Large numbers are leaving PR for the US to find work. PR’s population is falling due to emigration and falling birth rates. Over the last 30 years, school enrollment has dropped 42%, and is expected to drop another 22% in the next 5 years. This is ” according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group, which signed a multimillion-dollar deal with the government to help restructure the island’s education system”
PR’s gubmint has warned it may not be able to pay its bills as soon as early 2016, even though it apparently has the ability to pay multimillions to consultants in the gubmint’s attempt to avoid the obvious.
Nina Craig, a biologist from Ontario, Canada, who lives in the north coastal municipality of Arecibo and whose son attends school there, said
“I think it’s inappropriate to be closing schools in the country just because they have a smaller population,” said Craig, who owns a farm in Arecibo… [one of the recently closed schools has been listed on a] real estate website. The listing for the Francisco Oller school says it would be a good location for commercial businesses, medical offices or even a new school. City officials say the asking price is $1.8 million. So far, there are no takers. Where are all those filthy rich Chinese when you really need them?
Hi this is *Property Manager* I wanted to let you know that the home owner is selling the property and that they will be in contact with you to get a day scheduled to show to property, she said she would like to start showing the property starting on July 1st. If you have any questions just let me know. It is actually good that the home owner is doing it themselves and not from a real estate agent because you won’t be contacted by multiple agents. Here is the NRS code about the cooperation on them selling the house.
NRS 118A.330 Landlord’s access to dwelling unit.
1. A tenant shall not unreasonably withhold consent for the landlord peaceably to enter into the dwelling unit to:
(a) Inspect the premises;
(b) Make necessary or agreed repairs, decorating, alterations or improvements;
(c) Supply necessary or agreed services; or
(d) Exhibit the dwelling unit to prospective or actual purchasers, mortgagees, tenants, workers, contractors or other persons with a bona fide interest in inspecting the premises.
2. The landlord may enter the dwelling unit without consent of the tenant in case of emergency.
3. The landlord shall not abuse the right of access or use it to harass the tenant. Except in case of emergency, the landlord shall give the tenant at least 24 hours’ notice of intent to enter and may enter only at reasonable times during normal business hours unless the tenant expressly consents to shorter notice or to entry during non-business hours with respect to the particular entry.
4. The landlord has no other right of access except:
(a) Pursuant to court order;
(b) Where the tenant has abandoned or surrendered the premises; or
(c) Where permitted under NRS 118A.440.
(Added to NRS by 1977, 1337)
This is going to be a bitch. My mother is very ill and almost bedridden, and it takes much of my time just to get her through the day.
I have to think…we’ve been through this before and I’m not going to show this place for another LL, it’s a real PITA and I don’t want people looking at dear old ma in her hospital bed.
No. My LL is doing quite nicely. We’ve been renting his house since October of 2010.
The houses around us have doubled in price from the bottom and he’s getting out while the getting’s good.
Jan. 2012 I made him an offer, which he refused (we were $40K apart, the amount he claimed he was underwater.) The price I offered was the amount he posted in an archived craigslist list ad I found from a few months before. He played dumb on that one, had no clue who was advertising his house for sale. At the price I offered, I could live with the place. Also, our rent was/is more than twice as high as a mortgage.
=Tiny violin time, skip if squeamish=
Shortly after I made the offer, my dear old ma had a stroke, fell and broke her pelvis. She already had Chrohn’s and an ileostomy; later she developed leukemia and broke her hip. I was also caring for our elderly dog. I don’t think I’ve had a peaceful moment or a clear thought since 2010.
=Back in its little case=
Reading the email I received yesterday, I think he may still want us to buy it (that would make it very easy for him) but I’m sure it will be at the price the places around us are selling now.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-05-15 11:54:09
Given the current environment, you’re doing the right thing by renting for half the cost of buying.
You’ve probably never taken care of a very sick, elderly person at home. I’ve always said that if, in my old age, I had to rely on my husband or brother to take care of me, I’d be the nursing home so fast my head would spin.
I’m feeling a little humor impaired right now, but I am gearing up to exaggerate her illness (though I don’t know how much sicker she could be.) I doubt that will do any good.
Reading the message over again, and the pointed mention of no RE agent, this might be a hint that I should make an offer. The LL and I discussed our buying the place years ago (bottom of market) and he was very anxious to avoid paying a commission and liked the idea of handing it over as is.
If we do hang in through the sale, I want to know how much he’s going to reduce our rent for our time in showing it. I got my rent almost halved by browbeating our previous LL to compensate for the interruption to our “peaceful enjoyment”.
Also, the longer and more frequent the showings became, I might have spent more time pointing out the place’s flaws than features. Despicable me. (The LL was a superior, condescending type who was getting his a55 handed to him by the market, and could be unpleasant to deal with. In retrospect, I still feel a little guilty.)
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-05-14 15:26:53
That sucks.
Since you will likely need to move anyway, have you considered accelerating the moving process? Doing it on your own time, not have the timing forced upon you? Clearly with your mom, moving anytime is going to be really difficult, but if you can find a place soon, you might have less of a fire drill.
I’m sure that this has more than crossed your mind.
If you are still subject to a lease, you might be able to get out of it by simply stating the obvious…that the property will show better if you were not there.
Funny how the media says that O is being snubbed by the Saudis.
O is not the Bush Family, The House of Saud loves Bush because they do each other “favors.” O is too smart for that.
I say we let the Saudis/Iran/Iraq/Israel sit down and solve their own problems why we build more windmills and electric cars/trains/energy efficient homes/rds/bridges/schools/airports…..
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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R u ready for the next taper tantrum?
Capitol Report
Greenspan sees another taper tantrum once rates rise
By Lei Xuan of Medill News Service
Published: May 13, 2015 12:59 p.m. ET
Former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board Alan Greenspan in 2014
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Wednesday that markets will get another “taper tantrum” when the Fed raises interest rates for the first time in about nine years.
“Just remember we had the taper tantrum. And we are going to get another one,” said Greenspan to a room of 400 people at the Global Private Equity Conference in Washington.
In May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the central bank would soon slow its bond purchasing program, the market experienced a shock.
“(Interest rates) normalization is great, but the process of getting there is going to be very rocky,” the former Fed chief said.
Greenspan also shared his thoughts on investment to private equity fund managers. “The best strategy for equity investment has always been: Buy and hold and forget it,” he said. “Once you start to try and trade the market – I don’t care how good you are, how smart you are — you will not beat an index fund.”
“Remember, you are not just buying good stocks,” the 89-year-old economist said, “you are buying stocks, which you think are better than somebody else’s.”
When asked about his views on emerging economies, Greenspan said the BRICS countries “no longer share many characteristics.” BRICS refers to the once-popular grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
“The double-digit gains of China are over,” Greenspan said. However, he suggested looking at China’s living standard rather than its GDP numbers.
” However, he suggested looking at China’s living standard rather than its GDP numbers.”
My understanding is that there are tens of millions of rural Chinese, who currently are not even allowed to move to the booming cities, who are patiently awaiting their promised turn at amassing wealth in the new economy.
Who’s going to tell them the miracle is drawing to an end, and they should be happy with their dirt floor huts, because the people in the cities and on the coast are almost middle class now?
I bet they won’t be happy.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-column-taylor-bogle-idUSBRE88A0LI20120911
no instead of Greenspan here is a much wiser investor
June rate hikes off FOMC table; Wall Street parties like there is no tomorrow.
ft dot com > Markets >
Capital Markets
May 11, 2015 11:11 pm
US government bond market hit by sell-off
Robin Wigglesworth, US markets editor
The US government bond market suffered its worst sell-off in more than two months on Monday as contagion from the European bond rout rolled across the Atlantic, pushing US borrowing costs towards their highest closing levels this year.
The US Treasury market has felt the heat from the turmoil in eurozone debt markets in recent weeks, but has generally held up better than most European government bonds, which have suffered a sharp reversal from the quantitative-easing inspired rally earlier this year.
The US resilience evaporated on Monday, as the 10-year Treasury yield shot up by 13 basis points — the most since March 6 — to 2.28 per cent. The 10-year yield touched a 2015 intraday high of 2.31 per cent last week, but Monday’s close was the highest closing level this year. German government bonds suffered further falls, but the benchmark 10-year Bund yield only rose 6bp to 0.6 per cent.
Most analysts and investors have attributed the gyrations to an overdue reversal of stretched and crowded trades, with the turmoil exacerbated by a dearth of liquidity in bond market trading.
“A trickle of selling is turning into a torrent,” said William O’Donnell, head of US rates strategy at RBS. “Bonds have been overbought for some time now . . . The risk is that we now see a very significant correction.”
In the US longer-dated Treasuries have taken the biggest hit, with the 30-year yield climbing 13bp to above the 3 per cent mark for the first time in 2015. That has lifted the difference between the five and 30-year yields to 145 basis points, the most since November.
The jump in the “term premium” — the extra interest investors demand to buy longer-dated bonds — comes after Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen last week warned that the rally in longer-dated Treasuries could be reversed quickly when the central bank begins to raise rates.
“Long-term interest rates are at very low levels, and that would appear to embody low term premiums, which can move, and can move very rapidly,” Ms Yellen said after a speech in Washington on Wednesday, according to newswires. “We need to be attentive, and are to the possibility that when the Fed decides it’s time to begin raising rates, these term premiums could move up, and we could see a sharp jump in long-term rates.”
…
World Europe Europe File
Bond Market Rout: Born in the USA?
Explanations of the great selloff in eurozone bonds tend to be too Eurocentric
A financial trader in Frankfurt speaks on a telephone as he monitors data on computer screens.
Photo: MARTIN LEISSL/BLOOMBERG NEWS
By Simon Nixon
May 13, 2015 4:21 p.m. ET
No one knows for sure what caused the great bond market rout of the past few weeks. More than $450 billion of value has been wiped out. German 10-year government bonds, which in mid-April were yielding just 0.08%, are now yielding 0.64% having hit 0.73% earlier this week, back above the level in January before the European Central Bank announced its bond-buying program.
Eurozone bond markets have given back almost all the gains that they had made since the start of the year while U.S., U.K. and Australian bonds have also been caught up in the turmoil. There are plenty of theories, all of which may contain elements of the truth, but none are entirely convincing.
…
But the problem with all these explanations is that they are too Europe-centric and ignore the fact that this has been a global selloff. Fears over a Greek accident might explain a selloff in longer-dated peripheral eurozone bonds, but not a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, which one might expect to rally were there a risk of serious instability. And if the eurozone recovery was the trigger, then why have stocks sold off too, rather than rallying in the expectation of higher corporate earnings?
Indeed, it was U.S. Treasury yields that started rising first at the end of January. Looked at this way, the rise in eurozone yields over the past month is a belated catch-up, notes Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research. What’s more, this U.S. selloff has taken place against the backdrop of disappointing global economic indicators. Surveys of manufacturing activity in 16 out of 24 countries tracked by Mr. Harnett have been weakening since the start of the year, with U.S. and Asian data consistently coming in worse than expected. This deteriorating growth outlook has halted the rally in the dollar, which has now started to reverse some of its gains against the euro last year. That, in turn, has allowed commodity prices to start recovering in dollar terms, which is likely to lead to higher inflation than previously expected.
If Mr. Harnett is right, what lies behind the bond market selloff isn’t a eurozone reflation trade but a U.S. stagflation trade: rising yields may be signaling an unwelcome combination of slower global growth and higher inflation. This is consistent with recent eurozone surveys which suggest that the pace of growth may have slowed in the past few weeks; it is also consistent with the Bank of England’s decision to cut its U.K. growth forecasts in Wednesday’s Inflation Report. It also suggests that central banks, which have continued to loosen monetary policy this year, will be in even less of a hurry to stop printing money or start raising rates. That may put a floor on how far government bond prices fall—but it would also be a recognition that the global economy remains worryingly fragile.
Is this a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum?
Published: May 14, 2015 2:35 p.m. ET
By Ellie Ismailidou
Markets reporter
A recent global bond market selloff has made investors dread a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” during which yields skyrocketed in a mere four months as government bonds got hammered.
In May 2013, after a mere suggestion of an imminent reduction in bond purchases by then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, panic spread in bond markets all over the world.
As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gained 140 basis points between May and early September 2013. And the rest of the world followed, with the yield on the 10-year German bond, known as the bund, rising by 80 basis points and the yield on the 10-year Japanese benchmark note gaining 20 basis points.
Fast forward to today, when since mid-April, 10-year government yields have soared all over the world — by 40 basis points in the U.S., 60 basis points in Germany and 15 basis points in Japan.
Is this move a precursor of a “Taper Tantrum: Part 2”?
Analysts have pointed out that the recent selloff is in some ways even worse than the 2013 tantrum. The current rout is “more severe than the taper tantrum in terms of speed but has a way to go to match the magnitude,” a report by LPL Financial noted.
The report looked back at the major bond pullbacks of the past 15 years, showing that the current correction is among the swiftest. It is in fact on pace, and of similar magnitude, to the 2003 mortgage-backed securities related sell-off. But it has not yet reached the magnitude of the 2013 taper tantrum.
Looking back at the major bond pullbacks of the past 15 years shows that the current selloff is among the swiftest.
But analysts have also noted that there are three fundamental differences between 2013 and today’s market.
…
Need to Know
Here’s what happens to stocks once the bond rout ends
Published: May 14, 2015 9:23 a.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
20thCentFox/Courtesy Everett Collection
Dana Lyons, on his Tumblr blog, has taken a fresh look at what happens when 10-year Treasury yields ratchet up from a 52-week low to a five-month high within four months. Including the current move, he says this has happened 15 times since 1962.
“Collectively, the impact of the reversal spikes in yields has not been kind to equities,” he says. Lyons backs it up using this table, which shows that from the short to the long term, the yield spike has a been a “poor omen” for stocks (He’s also got a chart on his blog that maps out individual moves).
Of course, there have been a few exceptions — 1996, 2003 and 2010 and others — but he says many of those markets bore little resemblance to what we’re seeing now.
Whether history proves to repeat itself, this may lend credence to those who can’t shake worries about the potential market fallout from a bond rout.
And while some, such as Nouriel Roubini, don’t expect any Fed rate rage, you’ve got ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan saying a shock is coming once a hike arrives, just like before.
Futures for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have found some strength, as second thoughts about retail sales have given way to speculation about a delayed rate hike.
The euro is beating up the dollar, pushing above $1.14, as that rate view beats nowheresville Greek debt talks. European bond yields are up a bit. European stocks aren’t really going anywhere.
Oil futures were switching between gains and losses. Gold is tipping higher. The World Gold Council says global demand for gold fell 1% in the first quarter. Oh, and Chinese iron-ore prices fell off a cliff overnight.
…
“The World Gold Council says global demand for gold fell 1% in the first quarter.” I saw this too, and the analyst explained this is a good sign because the gold prices are relatively stable compared to a year ago with larger variations.
R u prepared for the next round of housing losses?
Someday you will be right.
what are your opportunity costs of missing the boat in 2009 -2015?
Missing the boat= Paying 250% premium for a depreciating asset and doubling down on those losses by financing.
That ship sank and you’re underwater Poet.
Aurora, CO List Prices Plunge 20% YoY; Denver Sinks Lower
http://www.movoto.com/aurora-co/market-trends/
what are your losses? U have been talking sh@t for 6 years as home prices rose dramatically.
U missed the boat and left thousands on the table.
What are your losses due to opportunity costs?
One could say the police who joined in on looting the 7/11 were acting so as to not miss the boat. Why leave all those potato chips and Slim-Jims on the table?
The answer is the same Poet.
Paying a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset while demand is collapsing is a guaranteed loss.
Plano, TX List Prices Crater 20% As Crude Oil Crashes
http://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/
My friend pays more in taxes in a year than I pay in rent. Two recent repair jobs cost another two years worth of rent. And it costs $100 a month for someone to cut the grass in that nice big yard. Yep, home appreciation is a wonderful thing, as long as you don’t count the losses caused by maintenance, taxes, repairs, etc. Most housing boosters conveniently omit these numbers when doing their realtor math. And don’t forget the minus sign when prices crash again.
“My friend pays more in taxes in a year than I pay in rent.”
Property taxes I assume. Is he living well, e.g., tapping some trim, numerous vacations, etc., or just another $30k millionaire?
Speaking of realtor math, what percentage of mortgage interest must still be paid after interest is deducted from taxable income? 2/3rd? That’s one gigantic plus sign on the expense side.
He’s doing well enough, but would be doing much better if that money were being put into an IRA instead. He can’t wait to retire and sell his house and start renting instead. He admires my carefree lifestyle. And rightfully so.
At least one of two things must be true about your friend:
1) His house is wayyyyyyy nicer than yours
2) He’s an idiot
“what are your opportunity costs of missing the boat in 2009 -2015?”
The opportunity cost of missing the boat on stocks in 2009-2015 was the maintenance expenses, taxes, insurance, and interest on stucco boxes the same time.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/05/grim-racist-methods-of-one-brooklyn-landlord.html
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And now back to the Drudge Report
Fortunately - Kim Kardashian’s butt and Dancing with Stars is NOT on the Drudge Report so those topics are wipe open - so have at it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheldon_Adelson
Bow down before the one you serve
You’re going to get what you deserve/I>
Nine Inch Nails
“You’re going to get what you deserve”
His paycheck?
A multi-front war in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Ukraine. After his dream ticket of Walker/Cotton gets elected in 2016 I hope his children all get drafted and the national debt blows past $30 trillion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Steyer
Who will probably bankroll Hillary and assorted other billionaire “environmentalist” candidates/crusades, whilst I donate money to Rand Paul, vote for him in my state’s Republican party caucus next February, and after Sheldon Adelson buys him out of the primaries (or has him murdered if he starts getting too much traction), then I vote for the Libertarian party candidate in the general election.
Have you ever taken a look at randpaul.com?
At the top you’ll find the words
DR. RAND PAUL
DEFEAT THE WASHINGTON MACHINE
There’s a video loop apparently going on behind those words. I’m not sure what the Washington machine is. Maybe it means something to some people.
Scroll down a bit and there are a couple of photographs with links that can be clicked on. One says, “Learn more about Rand and Kelley” with a picture of Rand and the wife. I didn’t click, but I assume that this is another politician who wants people to vote for him because he has a nice family. The other link reads, “Liberty, not Hillary”. Gee, that’s clever.
If you scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page, you’ll see the word Issues with a list of 15 issues in plain black and white. The environment is not one of the issues listed there.
This has the to be the most ironic post in HBB history.
Banana sneers at the list of common HBB memes — which by the way are posted as sarcasm — and then proceeds to launch into his own pet paymaster memes, the ones he’s been pounding for years. And with no sarcasm whatsoever.
I have a theory that 2b works in a room filled with other Koch Industries employees, and all they do all day long is post preselected links to articles funded by Koch Industries in as many websites as they can.
It is kinda funny that liberals/socialists think that anyone who disagrees with the below statement must be paid to think that way.
“Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes is the only way to solve problems.”
And the memes just keep a-comin’…
Unless you can find someone who actually agrees with that assertion, you should assume that everyone disagrees with it. In which case, it’s unlikely that everyone in America is getting paid to disagree with it.
Interns in cubicles at a Koch-funded think tank?
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere’s Lola!
You forgot the Pope! Drudge likes to post articles about his antics.
Q: What is the first things a public union does when he/she retires?
A: Moves to a low tax and right to work state.
————————
Why CalPERS retirees flee California
Sacramento Bee | May 11, 2015 | Jon Ortiz
“Compared to California, Las Vegas was a no-brainer,” said Beck, a former Southern California school district maintenance administrator who moved here in 2000. “I decided that if I could handle the heat three months out of the year, I needed to move to where my retirement check would be tax-free.”
About 15 percent of the 561,000 pensioners in the California Public Employees’ Retirement System live their golden years outside the Golden State, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of fund data by The Sacramento Bee. The vast majority have flocked to low-tax or no-tax states, creating a veritable river of cash that flows out of California and into cities such as Las Vegas; Reno; Tucson, Ariz.; and Grants Pass, Ore.
Overall, CalPERS sent $2.16 billion to roughly 81,000 beneficiaries living elsewhere in 2013, based on monthly pension payments made in December of that year, the latest for which CalPERS data are available.
“It’s obvious that California’s taxes and the cost of living drive some people out of the state,” said Mark Beach, AARP’s Sacramento-based communications director, when told about Nevada’s popularity among CalPERS retirees. “I’m surprised the number of them leaving isn’t higher.”
Joe Beck, a Republican, said he figured California’s cost was exceeding its value when he was approaching retirement 16 years ago.
“You could see it coming in California, the big tax increases, the poorer quality of living,” he said.
Now, Beck watches California headlines with a grim satisfaction as the state has cycled in and out of fiscal crises and hiked fees and taxes. Gov. Jerry Brown’s successful bid to raise taxes in 2012 was, Beck said, the worst.
“You know what the difference is between the people on the Titanic and people in California who voted for Brown?” Beck said, chuckling during a recent interview at his home. “The people on the Titanic didn’t have a choice.”
Yes, Joe Beck is smart. Make your living and get a fat pension from a high-tax state, then retire to a low tax state. Now that your kids got to go to great schools and colleges back home, you can retire to the Villages in Florida and pay little taxes. Those stupid Southerners don’t want good schools anyway.
High taxes and insane public unions = good schools
Not my point. For the past 50 years, Yankees have been enjoying the fruits of union an/or good government jobs and benefits. They built their children’s future on the high tax base that provided. Now when they want to retire, they move to a state that with low taxes and demand even lower. That is, now that my kids have finished school, I don’t want to pay for yours. They don’t want to pay for anything here.
Hmmmmm…..red states dominate, some purple, no solid blue.
—————————
U.S. News’ 10 Best High Schools, 2015
yahoo.com | May 12, 2015 | Alexandra Pannoni
1. School for the Talented and Gifted. Dallas, Texas.
For the fourth consecutive year, the School for the Talented and Gifted, a Dallas magnet school known as TAG, was ranked as the No. 1 public high school in the country.
2. BASIS Scottsdale in Arizona took second place in the national rankings for the second year in a row
3. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology. Alexandria, Virginia.
4. Gwinnett School of Mathematics, Science and Technology. Lawrenceville, Georgia.
The School of Science and Engineering Magnet in Texas – located in the same facility in Dallas as TAG – climbed further up the top 10. It took the No. 5 spot after placing eighth in 2014.
Vaulting 17 places this year to No. 6 is Carnegie Vanguard High in Houston, Texas. Last year it ranked 23rd.
Academic Magnet High School in North Charleston, South Carolina, jumped to No. 7 from last year’s 16th place.
University High School in Tolleson, Arizona, was another big mover, moving up 21 places to crack the top 10 this year at No. 8.
The ninth-place school, Lamar Academy in McAllen, is one of four Texas schools to place in the top 10. Last year it was unranked.
And rounding out the top 10 is Gilbert Classical Academy High School in Gilbert, one of three Arizona schools to place in the top 10.
U.S. News factored in how effectively schools educated their least-advantaged students – those of black, Hispanic and low-income backgrounds.
Those “stupid southerners” keep electing conservatives who make no secret of the fact that they would rather protect the wealthy than improve the communities they represent. And all they have to do is talk about “values” to get elected. Whose fault is that?
Because only stupid people would disagree with this statement:
“Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can solve all our problems.”
It is funny - even retired public union goons who move have figured it out…
If taxes were the driver, then why aren’t they moving to South Dakota or Wyoming, the states with almost no tax at all? Oh, right, maybe those retirees are just moving to warmer states?
If taxes were the driver, then why aren’t they moving to South Dakota or Wyoming, the states with almost no tax at all? Oh, right, maybe those retirees are just moving to warmer states?
Weather plays a part
Family plays a part
Taxes plays a part
But ironically - NO ONE is moving to California to retire. Even with its great weather and beaches.
It’s not just taxes. It’s the other costs of living. There are probably some people who move to California when they retire. They’re probably mostly rich people.
2b, do the Kochroach brothers pay you by the number of words you use to fill up the various websites you troll?
ILLANNOY is right on the heels of Cali -
Most AFSCME folk here who retire from City of Chicago - where do they head 6 months + a day? You got it Florida - the land of low taxes and sunshine.
Because paying the taxes for insane public union goon pensions is for suckers and loosers!
85% of the pensioners are staying in Calif. yet 2banana and the newspaper make it sound like a mass exodus. The newspaper makes it sound like pensioners are only moving due to taxes or cost of living. I bet a good number is cuz they want to be close to grandkids, relatives, etc.
I’d take my Pension to Uruguay, with a cook and a house cleaner, 2 kayaks and a few local girlfriends…
Escape plan A.
Go from a third world hole(California) to a third world hole like Uruguay.
You’re brain dead.
LOL! You don’t get out much!
WV is for lovers.
Q. How do you destroy the great cities of America?
A. Allow them to be run by democrats and public unions in a closed shop state where you are required to join the union as a condition of employment and where the union gives 99% of its campaign money to democrats.
And - public union goon pensions WILL BE PAID.
————————–
Moody’s downgrades Chicago schools, park district ratings
Associated Press | May 13, 2015 7:43 PM EDT
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the debt of both the Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Park District on Wednesday, a day after it downgraded the city’s bond rating to junk status.
Moody’s has given a Ba3 rating to the school district’s debt, down from a Baa3 rating, saying the district faces “increased strain on its precarious financial position” due to last week’s Illinois Supreme Court decision overturning state pension reform. It reduced the Chicago Park District’s rating to from Baa1 to Ba1, one notch below investment grade.
When Moody’s lowered the city’s bond rating on Tuesday, it noted Chicago’s tax base is “highly leveraged by the debt and unfunded pension obligations” of the city and overlapping governments. …
ILLANNOY - Uber Alles!!
Sorry your “Blame the Democrats” theory doesn’t hold water. California has had multiple upgrades by Moody’s. The unemployment rate in blue Seattle is only 4.4% _and_ a high minimum wage.
How do you destroy a good state? Turn them deep red and do that voodoo economic nonsense. Just ask Kansas.
How to you destroy a once-great country? Let stupid people vote.
Kansas!! The proof in the pudding. But now they can’t even afford pudding.
2Ban - “Blacks ruin cities,” just say it.
Santa Cruz, CA is uber liberal. Not many better places to live in the USA. If you like to leave the house.
Public union goon employees: ““It’s OUR time!”
—————–
Two Baltimore City Jail Correctional Officers Caught On Video Looting A 7-11
Daily Caller | May 13, 2015 | Chuck Ross
Two correctional officers who work at the Baltimore City jail were suspended without pay Wednesday after video emerged showing them looting a 7-11 store during last month’s riots.
Tamika Cobb and Kendra Richard were charged with theft and two counts of burglary, according to a statement released by the Maryland Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services (DPSCS).
Investigators DPSCS and with the Intelligence and Investigative Division responded to a tip that the pair had joined in looting a closed 7-11 convenience store near downtown Baltimore on April 25. That was the first day of major unrest following the April 19 death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray.
It’s in their “jeans”.
The useful idiots always sound surprised when they discover they are nothing but useful idiots…
——————–
Guard Tells Dem Senator: You Can’t Take Notes About Obama’s Trade Agreement
cns.com | 5/13/15 | Melanie Hunter
Speaking on the Senate floor Tuesday, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) described how she was told by a guard to surrender her cell phone and that she could not take notes on the president’s trade agreement when she went to read it.
“Let me tell you what you have to do to read this agreement. Follow this: You can only take a few of your staffers who happen to have a security clearance, because – God knows why – this is secure. This is classified. It’s nothing to do with defense,” said Boxer.
“It has nothing to do with going after ISIS. It has nothing to do with any of that, but it is classified,” she added.
“So I go down with my staff that I could get to go with me, and as soon as I get there, the guard says to me, ‘Hand over your electronics. OK. I give over my electronics. Then the guard says, ‘You can’t take notes.’ I said, ‘I cannot take notes?’” said Boxer.
This from “the most transparent administration in history.”
Replace Greece with (in order) Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Camden, Newark, Cleveland, Buffalo, Illinois, California, Rhode Island, New York and America…
Welcome to your hope and change future…
And public goon union pensions WILL BE PAID.
————————–
Just how is broke Greece paying its bills?
CNBC - 5/14/2015
Everybody knows that the Greek government’s coffers are almost empty, but over the last few weeks it’s managed to pay bills worth hundreds of millions of euros.
Earlier this week, the country scraped together enough cash to pay its latest loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it soon became clear that it did so in an unconventional way.
Here, we take a look at the desperate measures Greece is resorting to pay its bills.
What surprised analysts, however, was how it paid the bill - Greece emptied an IMF holding account to repay the loan, a Greek central bank official confirmed to CNBC Wednesday.
Athens is thought to raided its account for 650 million euros, and used 100 million euros from its cash reserves to make the payment.
In sum, Greece tapped its IMF reserves to pay back…the IMF.
Following the talks, Varoufakis said the liquidity situation in his country was “terribly urgent” and that Greece could run out of money within two weeks.
Another Greek government official, who also declined to be named due to the sensitive nature of reform talks, told CNBC Wednesday that Greece could not “go on with this uncertainty much longer.”
“In sum, Greece tapped its IMF reserves to pay back…the IMF.”
Isn’t this neat? This works because Greece doesn’t have to pay back to the IMF ALL of the money it owes to the IMF, instead it only has to MAKE A PAYMENT on all the money it owes.
As long as they can make a payment then the magic will continue to work. And if the magic can continue to work then the risks will be reduced. And if the risks are reduced then another loan can be prudently floated to Greece, and Greece then can take part of this loaned money and, somewhere down the road, make another payment to the IMF. And another. And another.
Forever and ever.
IMF = USA
Don’t forget the state of Kansas. Who would have thought that a state with such a conservative Koch brothers backed governor could be such a basket case?
Yeah - they are almost bankrupt like Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Camden, Newark, Cleveland, Buffalo, Illinois, California, Rhode Island, New York…
If they would just raise taxes and force everyone to join a public union as a condition of employment they could fix this!
More tax cuts for the wealthy and more budget cuts for everyone else will make the economy grow. More and more. Funny how that didn’t actually work in Kansas.
Fewer and fewer regulations will help the economy grow and grow. More and more. Just look at how well the tourist industries did after BP covered the Gulf of Mexico with millions of gallons of oil.
Jan 2015 (Bloomberg) — California Governor Jerry Brown is faced with a dilemma other leaders would love to have as he releases his budget today: what to do with record tax revenue expected to leave the most populous U.S. state with a growing surplus.
The state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office projects California will take in at least $2 billion more in revenue this fiscal year than what is estimated in the budget.
“The state budget, after a decade of fiscal turbulence [Arnold (R)], is finally balanced — more precariously than I would like - but balanced,” Brown (D) told lawmakers earlier this week in his annual state of the state speech.
Know your party.
what to do with record tax revenue
Build some desal plants?
You can take California off of your list. Economy here is doing much better, one of the leading states in the US for job creation. Debt has been upgraded to A+.
Of course. The poorest state in the Union should always be rated A+.
the only people who think CA is poor are the ones who wish they lived here. Nothing “poor” about my town. Avg home is about $500k, rent for 2 bdrm is $1800. 300+ days of sun, no AC needed, no traffic, great wine! Greet local food! Mtn biking. Surfing. Fishing! Hiking!
Doesn’t get much better.
It all sounds wonderful, except for the poverty induced by 10x income houses.
Nothing “poor” about my town. Avg home is about $500k, rent for 2 bdrm is $1800. 300+ days of sun, no AC needed, no traffic, great wine!
What town is this? If there’s no traffic, you’re probably not in a part of California that has the jobs that pay well.
Sounds like lots of ways to spend money. How about income to actually support all that spending?
Yes. highest COL in CA, very low wages, high rents, highly rated college town.
Bring your own job or make only $60k if skilled and can compete with all the other skilled college grads.
It was # 5 on latest “best outdoor activity” towns.
Gonna rain soon.
Cal Poly is the Best In the West for 22nd Consecutive Year
Cal Poly again has been rated the best public-master’s university in the West in the U.S. News and World Report’s America’s Best Colleges guidebook — the 22nd consecutive year the university has earned the badge of honor.
Yes. highest COL in CA, very low wages, high rents, highly rated college town.
Bring your own job or make only $60k if skilled and can compete with all the other skilled college grads.
Are you saving anything for retirement?
I max my IRA every year plus some, but I believe in having fun while you are young enough to enjoy it. A bus trip around Europe at age 75 is not my style.
Two professionals sharing a place do well. You can always rent a room to student for $800 mo. Surfing, hiking, tennis and mtn biking are free.
“Cal Poly is the Best…”
Go Mustangs!
“Mtn biking. Surfing. Fishing! Hiking!”
And hang-gliding!
So smart…
And so dumb.
———————-
How one couple saved $100,000 to buy a house in only 2 years by working on a yacht
Business Insider - Antonia Farzan - 5/13/2015
By working on yachts together — Shaun as a captain, and Kelsey as a chef — they’d live rent-free and have virtually no expenses.
Finding a job was easy. At the time, they were based in the Caribbean, one of the major destinations for private yachts and their owners, working odd jobs.
Shaun did marine carpentry and boat deliveries, while Kelsey worked on organic farms, worked as a gardener, and trained as a chef.
Positions for chefs, stewardesses (who serve meals and clean), and deckhands, who do basic maintenance work, generally don’t require any boating knowledge.
Ultimately, the Millers ended up on an 82-foot sailboat where they earned a combined $115,000 per year, which is a standard starting salary for a boat of that size.
They were able to immediately start saving most of the money that they earned. “On the boat, we had basically no expenses,” Kelsey says. “Our groceries were paid for, our uniforms were paid for, our toiletries were paid for, and we had a rental car wherever the boat was docked.” The boat’s owner even provided health insurance that covered them while they were on board.
“Because we had those two goals in mind and planned to move to shore after we got married and bought a house, we didn’t treat the money as disposable income,” Kelsey explains. “For people who make working on a boat into a lifelong career, it’s easier to spend money on clothing or expensive jewelry or fancy meals.”
Sailing into Newport one day in July in 2011, the couple both felt they were returning home, and decided to look at houses in the area. At that point, they’d been working on boats for two years and had saved up $100,000 towards a down payment.
“We weren’t really serious about it, and just started casually looking around,” Kelsey says.
But by October, they’d found their dream house and signed the papers. The turn-of-the-century farmhouse had a backyard large enough for a garden and a dog, two spare bedrooms for visiting family and friends, and was within walking distance of the beach.
After finalizing the sale, they immediately went back to work on the boat. “We basically emptied our accounts when we bought the house, but then replenished them really quickly,” Kelsey explains. With their basic living expenses covered, they were able to rebuild their cushion of savings while also making double payments on the mortgage.
Most people simply cannot tolerate saved money, it burns a hole in their pocket. For these folks, debt offers security.
These people are old school.
“, the Millers ended up on an 82-foot sailboat where they earned a combined $115,000 per year, which is a standard starting salary for a boat of that size”
I’m not sure who sets the standard salaries for live-aboard help on medium-sized yachts, but it sure beats working in the oil patch. (Personally I’m a little dubious about those standard starting salaries for unskilled work.)
They aren’t unskilled. They need credentials and references for what they do. It just doesn’t include running the ship type skills.
Shaun as a captain,
That sounds a bit like “running the ship type skills”. Wouldn’t he likely need a 200-ton master’s license for an 82-ft yacht?
(in addition to excellent references)
By “unskilled” I thought he was referring to this:
“Positions for chefs, stewardesses (who serve meals and clean), and deckhands, who do basic maintenance work, generally don’t require any boating knowledge.”
Yep, agreed there is plenty of unskilled labor to be done on a yacht.
But an unskilled couple certainly would be clearing six figures in their combined income.
Someone who can afford an 82-ft yacht probably wants a skilled captain and a skilled chef. I certainly would!
sounds like they have a life others dream of–good for them! We only go around once. Spend your ride in Baltimore or the Caribbean.
Falling production in the Eagle Ford means falling US production, shale oil still needs higher oil prices, as the article states they do anticipate higher prices but even after they get them, it will be months before they will drill and frack the wells:
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/morning_call/2015/05/eagle-ford-shale-oil-production-falls-73k-barrels.html?ana=yahoo
With global crude supply and production at record highs and demand falling, who cares?
u wont spend any money anyways.
Remember Poet….. Falling prices of all items is positively bullish, good for the economy and your wallets best friend.
You are fighting a printing press and people who think inflation will lead to growth.
You left 100k on the table didn’t you?
You’re running low on blinker fluid Poet.
Sammamish, WA Sale Prices Crater 7% YoY; Inventory Balloons As Demand Plummets
http://www.zillow.com/sammamish-wa/home-values/
try again without using zillow or movoto, HA . . .
Refute either.
You can’t do it.
All that takes is a quick look at my house’s Zestimate, for a good laugh.
They understand your run down shanty isn’t worth much.
Your point?
No refute it.
It is ironic. Shale production is falling because it is not needed. This means the price has to go up! Nobody cares what you need the price to be.
China has been stockpiling to take advantage of the low price, thinking low price means price has to go up. Meanwhile their manufacturing continues to decline. Should be interesting when they are topped up.
“They aren’t making any more oil,” you know. They can’t afford to “give it away.”
Stranded. Assets.
Epic global bond rout is a QE success story - but it won’t last
The sudden surge in bond yields is a victory, a sign that markets are finally starting to believe that central banks have defeated deflation
Occam’s Razor is the sharpest way to cut through tangled explanations for the epic rout in global bond markets.
The simplest explanation is the best. “Frustra fit per plura quod potest fieri per pauciora.”
Bond yields are soaring because the world’s central banks have demonstrably done enough for now to stop deflation taking hold. The short-term monetary cycle is turning. The reflation trade is on.
The broad M3 money supply has been growing at a 7pc rate in the US over the past six months (annualized), and nearly 8pc in the eurozone. Fiscal austerity has run its course as well. Budget policy is no longer contractionary in either of the world’s two biggest economic blocs.
Unless the normal mechanisms of monetary policy have broken down altogether - which is possible, but would you bet your pension on it? - the burgeoning M3 data point to a reflationary revival of some sort later this year.
John Williams, the once dovish head of the San Francisco Fed, told Yahoo! Finance on Tuesday that the US economy is “running a little bit hot”. Rightly or wrongly, he chose to dismiss the economic relapse in the first quarter as a weather-blip. The world’s monetary superpower is chomping at the bit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11600220/Epic-global-bond-rout-is-a-QE-success-story-but-it-wont-last.html
Interesting last paragraph:
“But don’t bank on it. Albert Edwards, at Societe Generale, coined the term “Ice Age” long ago to describe this era of deflationary ascendancy. He is bracing for one final polar freeze before we all hyper-inflate our way out.”
Top CEOs Make 373 Times the Average U.S. Worker
The average U.S. worker has seen wages climb slowly over the past year. The average big-company chief executive has seen compensation jump far more substantially.
CEOs at the nation’s largest publicly traded companies received 373 times the compensation of the average production and nonsupervisory worker last year, according to a new report Wednesday by the AFL-CIO. Figures compiled by the union federation show that the gap widened from a 331-to-1 ratio in 2013 as overall CEO compensation rose nearly 16% last year. The average worker’s wages rose just 2.4%.
The average worker earned $36,134 in 2014, while the compensation for CEOs at S&P 500 companies averaged about $13.5 million, according to AFL-CIO calculations.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/13/top-ceos-now-make-373-times-the-average-rank-and-file-worker/
I think for the most part people in the private sector are seeing pay going down.
My engineering friends seem to be doing okay; always manage to land on their feet anyway.
Wages are high enough. The problem is prices are grossly inflated.
you might be worth 5 bucks and hour on a good day.
Your muffler bearings are squawking today Poet. Oil’em up with dramatically lower and more affordable oil.
Crude Oil Prices Plummet 40% YoY
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Odd insult from the negative net worth HELOC clown.
“Wages are high enough. The problem is prices are grossly inflated.”
+1 Indeed. One camp doesn’t have the IQ to “see” it, and the other camp just doesn’t want to talk about it especially if the wife is within earshot. Both camps are lösers!
Very few understand this simple truth.
There’s that “trickle down” thingy at work I tell ya
I wonder how many multiples the Clintons make over the “average” employee or even one on their staff?
But they are of the correct political party so we don’t talk about it or send the IRS to audit them.
Any coincidence that Oklahoma, the state with the highest observed honeybee dieoff, elected Jim Inhofe to the U.S. Senate?
http://m.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/14/honeybees-dying-situation-unheard-of/?tid=HP_more
It’s not a coincidence, God is delivering a message here
ATTENTION.
This news is currently being reported on Drudge.
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
Your children will inherit the global ecosystem that you create for them
That’s what HBB’s own MacBeth would call “radical environmentalism”
Dannyboy can post about records temperatures and models and predictions all day long, but nothing will make extinct species come back to life
And NOW back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links
How to talk about ISIS while running for president:
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-05-14/how-to-talk-about-isis-while-running-for-president
Your base has been rallied
Indeed. In neocon world, some dude with a black mask and a bowie knife is a greater threat to national security than an ICBM.
$hitHousePoet Runs Out Of Blinker Fluid And Blows A Head Gasket
CraterRage Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/zszb43
Your talent is exceptional. We need some more data, get on it! 6 bucks an hour is your grasp.
Your fenders are flappin’ Poet.
Too small to fail…
—————-
Franchise Loans Keep Blowing Up, and the Government Keeps Backing
Bloomberg - May 14, 2015
Buying a franchise is a risky business. Seventeen percent of franchise loans guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration failed between 1991 and 2010, new data show. At the end of the period, nearly one in five franchise owners went splat.
The loans, made by private lenders, weren’t merely delinquent. Failed loans are those charged off by the SBA, which guarantees up to 85 percent of the value of working-capital loans through its 7(a) program. Even after liquidating collateral, which can include franchise owners’ homes, the government had to use taxpayer dollars to make the lenders whole.
Some franchises are worse bets than others. Meineke (22 percent), Quiznos (25 percent), and Huntington Learning Center (31 percent) had some of the worst failure rates among well-known brands.
Why does the government keep guaranteeing these loans, which are made by private lenders and backstopped by the SBA? The agency has argued that banks tend to stop approving loans for struggling franchises and that franchise failure rates are similar to failure rates for the overall lending program. The SBA didn’t respond to requests for data showing the failure rate for its working-capital program as a whole.
The SBA was created on July 30, 1953, by President Eisenhower with the signing of the Small Business Act.
Western scholars has consistently held Eisenhower among the ten greatest U.S. Presidents.
You are so Anti-America, love it or leave it Tommy!
Liberals/Socialists/Democrats have the same modus operandi
Take any government program (obamaphones, healthcare, SBA, housing, the CRA, etc.).
Expand it, politicize it and use it to buy votes.
When it explodes - blame the administration that originally passed it when it was 1/1000 the size.
I am sure President Eisenhower never wanted the SBA to give out taxpayer money to a franchise that makes terrible sandwiches and which defaults at a rate of 25%.
Kinda like the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) - which Clinton used to pound banks to make terrible loans to buy minority votes - a leading cause (but not the only cause) of the housing bubble.
“With the new policy in full force, no loan is exempt; no bank is immune. For those who thumb their nose at us, I promise vigorous enforcement,” Janet Reno on the CRA.
Your onto something there. Seems like all these bogus loan programs work for awhile then the bubble breaks down and everyone starts pointing fingers. Then more money is printed to plug all the holes.
home loans
student loans
auto loans
business loans
Accountability is pretty much gone. Just print more money.
That’s just makes demand collapse even further Poet.
Kinda like the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) - which Clinton used to pound banks to make terrible loans to buy minority votes - a leading cause (but not the only cause) of the housing bubble.
Isn’t Barney Frank usually part of this story?
You dont know your team.
Reagan Phones - yeah! that liberal clown tripled the deficit and gave amnesty to 3 mill illegals. I am mad too!
Bush OVERSAW THE HOUSING BUBBLE.
The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992 established an affordable housing loan purchase mandate for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and that mandate was to be regulated by HUD. Initially, the 1992 legislation required that 30 percent or more of Fannie’s and Freddie’s loan purchases be related to affordable housing. However, HUD was given the power to set future requirements. In 1995 HUD mandated that 40 percent of Fannie and Freddie’s loan purchases would have to support affordable housing. In 1996, HUD directed Freddie and Fannie to provide at least 42% of their mortgage financing to borrowers with income below the median in their area. This target was increased to 50% in 2000 and 52% in 2005. Under the Bush Administration HUD continued to pressure Fannie and Freddie to increase affordable housing purchases – to as high as 56 percent by the year 2008.[22] To satisfy these mandates, Fannie and Freddie eventually announced low-income and minority loan commitments totaling $5 trillion.[23] Critics argue that, to meet these commitments, Fannie and Freddie promoted a loosening of lending standards - industry-wide.[24]
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/06/14/499523/5-reasons-americans-are-right-to-blame-bush-for-the-bad-economy/
Rand Paul 2016! Cut the aid to Israel!!
“Fannie and Freddie eventually announced low-income and minority loan commitments totaling $5 trillion”
There seems to be something wrong with that. The total mortgage debt held by all Fed agencies is $5 Tr.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm
If they are liquidating the franchise owners’ homes, the franchise owners aren’t doing their LLCs properly!
You should never lose your home if you have your business structured properly.
Senate approves trade enforcement measure, clearing way for fast-track
The Hill | 05/14/2015 | ordain Carney and Alexander Bolton
The Senate took an initial step toward picking up President Obama’s trade agenda on Thursday by approving a controversial customs bill that includes language cracking down on currency manipulation by trading partners.
The legislation was easily approved in a 78-20 vote. Under rules adopted for the vote, 60 votes were needed for the measure to pass.
GOP presidential hopefuls Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) voted no, while Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.), another 2016 GOP candidate, voted yes. So did Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), who is considering a 2016 run.
Democrats had demanded a vote on the bill in exchange for supporting a later vote that would allow the Senate to begin debate on fast-track trade legislation, a key legislative priority for Obama. That vote is scheduled for 2 p.m. Supporters of the currency manipulation language frame the customs bill as a trade enforcement measure, and the vote gives some cover for Democrats who want to back fast-track.
It’s unclear, however, whether the customs bill will be picked up by the House. The Obama administration also doesn’t support the measure. It warned ahead of the vote on Thursday that the currency provisions “raise highly problematic questions” about if the legislation would violate current international trade agreements, though it stopped short of a veto threat.
The fast-track legislation would allow Obama to send a trade pact he is negotiating with Asian and Latin American countries to Congress for an up-or-down vote. Congress would not be able to amend the legislation under fast-track.
Puerto Rico’s economic woes worsen
The reporting for this article is so massively distorted that making sense of it is a challenge. A poor attempt follows.
Large numbers are leaving PR for the US to find work. PR’s population is falling due to emigration and falling birth rates. Over the last 30 years, school enrollment has dropped 42%, and is expected to drop another 22% in the next 5 years. This is ” according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group, which signed a multimillion-dollar deal with the government to help restructure the island’s education system”
PR’s gubmint has warned it may not be able to pay its bills as soon as early 2016, even though it apparently has the ability to pay multimillions to consultants in the gubmint’s attempt to avoid the obvious.
Nina Craig, a biologist from Ontario, Canada, who lives in the north coastal municipality of Arecibo and whose son attends school there, said
“I think it’s inappropriate to be closing schools in the country just because they have a smaller population,” said Craig, who owns a farm in Arecibo… [one of the recently closed schools has been listed on a] real estate website. The listing for the Francisco Oller school says it would be a good location for commercial businesses, medical offices or even a new school. City officials say the asking price is $1.8 million. So far, there are no takers.
Where are all those filthy rich Chinese when you really need them?
Chicago and P.R. will be the first of many municipal bond defaults…
The cry for a bailout - because a promise is a promise - will be deafening.
And it is for the children.
Politico - Scott Walker’s crisis of faith
The Wisconsin governor is racing to reassure Christian conservatives that he’s one of them:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/scott-walkers-crisis-of-faith-117937.html
Well, the hammer just fell.
This is going to be a bitch. My mother is very ill and almost bedridden, and it takes much of my time just to get her through the day.
I have to think…we’ve been through this before and I’m not going to show this place for another LL, it’s a real PITA and I don’t want people looking at dear old ma in her hospital bed.
I can’t remember the last time I had a drink in the middle of the day.
Deed in lieu of foreclosure?
Huh?
trust me, his advice will leave u broker.
I didn’t understand the comment.
Chateau “Deed in Lieu”?
Hold onto every dollar you’ve got and stay out of debt. You’re going to need them.
Uh, yeah.
Is this the bank foreclosing? Deed in lieu of foreclosure? You didn’t identify.
No. My LL is doing quite nicely. We’ve been renting his house since October of 2010.
The houses around us have doubled in price from the bottom and he’s getting out while the getting’s good.
Jan. 2012 I made him an offer, which he refused (we were $40K apart, the amount he claimed he was underwater.) The price I offered was the amount he posted in an archived craigslist list ad I found from a few months before. He played dumb on that one, had no clue who was advertising his house for sale. At the price I offered, I could live with the place. Also, our rent was/is more than twice as high as a mortgage.
=Tiny violin time, skip if squeamish=
Shortly after I made the offer, my dear old ma had a stroke, fell and broke her pelvis. She already had Chrohn’s and an ileostomy; later she developed leukemia and broke her hip. I was also caring for our elderly dog. I don’t think I’ve had a peaceful moment or a clear thought since 2010.
=Back in its little case=
Reading the email I received yesterday, I think he may still want us to buy it (that would make it very easy for him) but I’m sure it will be at the price the places around us are selling now.
Given the current environment, you’re doing the right thing by renting for half the cost of buying.
“This is going to be a bitch. My mother is very ill and almost bedridden, and it takes much of my time just to get her through the day.”
Lemons into lemonade. Post a notice on your door suggesting that your bedridden mother might be showing symptoms of Ebola.
might be showing symptoms of Ebola.
LOLZ!! That’s _awesome_!!
Jeez, you guys.
You’ve probably never taken care of a very sick, elderly person at home. I’ve always said that if, in my old age, I had to rely on my husband or brother to take care of me, I’d be the nursing home so fast my head would spin.
I’m feeling a little humor impaired right now, but I am gearing up to exaggerate her illness (though I don’t know how much sicker she could be.) I doubt that will do any good.
Reading the message over again, and the pointed mention of no RE agent, this might be a hint that I should make an offer. The LL and I discussed our buying the place years ago (bottom of market) and he was very anxious to avoid paying a commission and liked the idea of handing it over as is.
If we do hang in through the sale, I want to know how much he’s going to reduce our rent for our time in showing it. I got my rent almost halved by browbeating our previous LL to compensate for the interruption to our “peaceful enjoyment”.
Good times.
Also, the longer and more frequent the showings became, I might have spent more time pointing out the place’s flaws than features. Despicable me. (The LL was a superior, condescending type who was getting his a55 handed to him by the market, and could be unpleasant to deal with. In retrospect, I still feel a little guilty.)
That sucks.
Since you will likely need to move anyway, have you considered accelerating the moving process? Doing it on your own time, not have the timing forced upon you? Clearly with your mom, moving anytime is going to be really difficult, but if you can find a place soon, you might have less of a fire drill.
I’m sure that this has more than crossed your mind.
If you are still subject to a lease, you might be able to get out of it by simply stating the obvious…that the property will show better if you were not there.
Yes, it did. I’m already checking the rentals.
We’re month to month. I wanted to be able to leave when I liked. This is the downside of rental freedom, here to bite me in the butt.
I will ask about the list price, but I could probably do as well renting/buying a house whose appliances are from this century and in a better area.
I had just relaxed about the whole thing. I figured we got this far into the year, so they weren’t going to sell it.
and
Rental Watch,
It was kind of you to take the time to take the time to really respond - I appreciate it. We’ll deal with it (no choice!)
Thanks,
TB
Funny how the media says that O is being snubbed by the Saudis.
O is not the Bush Family, The House of Saud loves Bush because they do each other “favors.” O is too smart for that.
I say we let the Saudis/Iran/Iraq/Israel sit down and solve their own problems why we build more windmills and electric cars/trains/energy efficient homes/rds/bridges/schools/airports…..
if there was no oil n ca the economy would collapse overnight mr do gooder.
nice straw man
US exports oil. Looks like a surplus.
A college student calls out neo-con Jeb on neo-con George’s misadventure in Iraq.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/05/13/college-student-to-jeb-bush-your-brother-created-isis/
Its over for Jeb and Cruze before it starts.
Trump 2016!
r u gonna work on hilary’s campaign chyster ?
Rand Paul/ Gary Johnson, maybe
Anybody but HillaryJeb. Except Cruz, Walker or Rubio, who are oligarch and neo-con sock puppets.
1、 寻求共同发展。由黑河市政府主办,《纲要》正式发布,力促《纲要》相关内容得到落实。 如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题,作为食品添加剂广泛适用于面粉生产中。与此同时,核心工业领域很多部分使用西门子等国外产品,usda. 2012年6月。