The Housing Bubble

Speaking of William Kristol, repost from yesterday:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2015-05-18/the-gop-is-campaigning-for-george-w-bush-s-third-term

Master Kristol? Oh no, master Kristol is so nice and kind to nice to me. I ain’t that raghead from midwest or somewhere. I am full blooded, Jesus fearing ‘Mercan.

Is that your fantasy being whipped by Kristol S&M style?

Everyone here agrees that both Stephanopolous and Kristol are scum sucking leeches.

Steph is the meme of the week, but it’s nothing new. The Clinton pay-for-play game has been known for decades. I remember when the Clintons sold out the Lincoln Bedroom to the Friends of Bill not a week after moving into the White House. I was in college and non-political, and even then it struck me as slimy.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/02/25/clinton.money/

For what it’s worth, the liberals don’t trust Hilary one bit either.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

The external debt of the UK is 318% of GDP, the external debt of the US is 98% but the external debt of China is 6%. Thus, the US is almost 16 times in worse shape than China and the UK is fifty times worse shape. Debt service in China is to Chinese within the country and stays in the economy. Our debt service sucks money out of the country.

One of the downsides of having a first world train system as opposed to our third world system:

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/metro/Shanghai-senior-takes-bullet-train-for-Metro-and-ends-up-in-Nanjing-City-after-finishing-grocery-shopping/shdaily.shtml

BTW, the external debt of Greece is around 219%.

almost 16 times

I meant around 16 times it is actually slightly over.

Yeah, but they have a Third World, centrally controlled, aviation system.

Yeah, but they have a Third World, centrally controlled, aviation system.

Check back in ten years.

For what it’s worth, the liberals don’t trust Hilary one bit either.

As long as they vote for her that’s all that matters.

One of the downsides of having a first world train system as opposed to our third world system

Yeah, I saw that this morning and was trying to think of which Metro station also had high speed rail connections too. I think the main rail station west of downtown is the only one. But it would still be really hard to accidentally do that I think.

Albu Quer Hon Que Dan blindly loves China.
Check back in 2 yrs.

I am just speaking the truth about the situation, it is not a case of loving or hating China. I wish it was us that was following supply side economics and not China. I do not like China’s authoritarian government or their persecution of Christianity. However, that does not change the economic facts on the ground.

Collapsing demand and falling prices Dan.

Kristol, the bloodthirsty war monger

https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/bill-kristol-bloodthirsty-warmonger/

It means you are heading down from where ever you started.

No one knows China’s real debt level because half their banking system is in the shadows. If their overall debt is officially anywhere near our debt level, then in reality they’re probably way worse than us.

When are you going to pay for Obama’s nine trillion of debt?

Bush war
Bush tax cuts
Bush Recession

you pay yours, I’ll pay mine.
O’Care (craap!)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/is-obama-responsible-for-a-5-trillion-increase-in-the-debt/2012/05/15/gIQACA0QSU_blog.html

…and Amazon lost money on it.

…and Amazon lost money on it.

But they are making it up on volume.

Yes, sometimes Amazon sells items for less than they buy them for. I know this as a fact as a friend is a manufacturer that sells to Amazon.

As a PRIME member that hates shopping, I’ll take it.

The pensions of fools make up the difference.

BTW, that 400% + for Japan includes both government and private just like China’s debt include public and private. China’s national government debt is only 22%. Our total debt is about the same size as China’s but we owe a lot more of it to overseas entities.

What’s this business about “foreign creditors”? Don’t real journalists know China has no external debt?

Markets | Mon May 18, 2015 1:45am EDT
Amid China slowdown, foreign creditors face bankruptcy riddle
HONG KONG | By Umesh Desai and Michelle Price
A general view of Shanghai’s financial district of Pudong is seen from the top of the Shanghai Tower, during heavy rain at the financial district of Pudong in Shanghai May 15, 2015.
Reuters/Aly Song

As China’s economy slows and Beijing becomes more relaxed about letting its companies fail, a rising number of foreign bondholders risk being caught up in the country’s unpredictable court system.

Last month, solar producer Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric (600550.SS) became China’s first ever state-owned company to default on a bond coupon payment, showing Beijing’s increasing willingness to let companies go bust in a bid to reform its corporate market.

Also in April, Kaisa Group became the first Chinese property developer to fail to pay a coupon on its U.S. dollar bonds and Internet company Cloud Live Tech Group (002306.SZ) failed to repay nearly $40 million to bondholders.

Although onshore and offshore bondholders have equal standing in China’s bankruptcy law, lawyers and investors who have experienced corporate failures in China, say bankruptcy proceedings are subject to interference from local government officials who rarely prioritize offshore bondholders.

“The courts can and do exercise wide discretion, and it’s not always clear how that discretion is applied,” said Mark Hyde, global head of the insolvency and restructuring practice at law firm Clifford Chance in Hong Kong, who advised creditors in the 2014 bankruptcy of solar producer Chaori, China’s first domestic bond default.

“This is in contrast to other jurisdictions like the U.S., where the key question is whether the legal issues have been satisfied.”

Courts also have wide discretion on whether to accept bankruptcy filings and must work closely with local government officials, who are generally more concerned about jobs, local tax revenues and social stability than creditors.

Foreign investors who experienced the bankruptcies of Chaori and Suntech, another early Chinese corporate failure, felt they were treated like a nuisance.

“In the case of Suntech there was radio silence from the company for four months and only when we applied sufficient pressure did they start to come up with a solution. Creditors are seen as a nuisance,” said an investor who owned bonds in Suntech but declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
…

6% is not no debt, it is extremely little debt by world standards.

$26 Trillion is a lot of debt for one of the world’s poorest countries.

Not so much for the world’s biggest economy by one measure and second biggest by another. China is far more likely to pay its debts then we are and our total debt is about the same as China’s debt but has not largely gone for factories and infrastructure but has been pis*ed away on transfer payments.

So long story short: Outsiders that invest in a Chinese company that goes bankrupt get hosed. Film at 11 . . .

As I predicted a few weeks ago and was laughed at by the board China is turning debt into equity. More than 450 billion in IPOs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/shanghai-exchange-loan-rate-surges-most-in-two-months-on-ipos

Debt for ghost cities, ghost tankers and idle steel mills is “problematic”.

It is kind of fantastic that a billion mudhutters created a $25 Trillion credit bubble just by passing IOUs between themselves.

Yesterday’s post about the ghost city in Angola was striking. Built by the same Chinese entity that went bankrupt in the ’90s I think.

The kicker was that the Chinese bring their own slave labor into factories in Africa to do the work, and won’t hire Africans. Slave labor.

“450 billion in IPOs”

Your prediction was that banks would turn their debts into bonds, wasn’t it? That was a lead balloon. I am pretty sure you made this “prediction” right after the government announced it. So not only was the prediction wrong, it is wrong to claim to have predicted it in the first place, unless the CCP is taking their cues from you directly.

No, I predicted they would file IPOs to pay off their debts and people could sell their bonds in these companies to buy the stock.

don’t really fault the sheeple. They don’t have any choice, just the illusion of choice. And they are pretty well fed, drugged and entertained.

I fault them. True, the oligarch-owned MSM serves a Ministry of Truth function, but there’s nothing stopping any of the sheeple from seeking out real news and real truth. They don’t want to know. So for that I hold them fully accountable.

I hear in the Newspeak dictionary 2016 edition, “illegal immigrant”, “welfare recipient”, and “black person” will become un-words.

Anyone thinking like this guy must report to room 101 immediately.

“Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it. Every concept that can ever be needed, will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten.”

And who can forget this gem:

“The only recognized purpose of marriage was to beget children for the service of the Party. Sexual intercourse was to be looked on as a slightly disgusting minor operation, like having an enema. This again was never put into plain words, but in an indirect way it was rubbed into every Party member from childhood onwards.”

I’m going to start a new gameshow. It’s going to be called “George Orwell, or Womyn’s Studies Professor,” and contestants will have to guess which one a given quote came from.

+1. That analogy breaks down badly. A corporation would never let a subsidiary corporation run amuck against its own interests in the way our government lets transnationals get away with. Rather, they would step in, fire the subsidiary board, and replace all of the management.

I really don’t think Apple cares whether it sells its phones in China or the U.S. The franchises (countries) might care but the corporate office does not care. I do not think we are all the way to my statement but it is where the globalists want to go, multinational corporations controlling the world. The fact that the U.S. has done nothing to prevent its rot points to the fact that the global entity controls more than the franchise. The last president that did anything to give the US a competitive advantage was Reagan. Unfortunately, the lower corporate rates worked so well, a good part of the world not only matched our rates they went below them.

“+1. That analogy breaks down badly. A corporation(USA) would never let a subsidiary corporation(IRAQ) run amuck against its own interests in the way our government(USA) lets transnationals(IRAQ,IRAN,LIBYA,NK,etc…) get away with. Rather, they would step in, fire the subsidiary board(Hanged Saddam, mutilated Gaddafi), and replace all of the management(Ahmed Chalabi, later Nouri Al-Maliki.)”

Fixed that for ya. Actually, the analogy works quite well.

Fixed that for ya. Actually, the analogy works quite well.

Yes, but I do not think our leaders are working for the betterment of the U.S., so while we invade in the name of the U.S. we are actually acting for the shadow incipient world government.

You have stifling hot cities which are fit: Atlanta and Raleigh.
You have achingly cold cities which are fit: Minneapolis and Boston.
You have cities with nice weather which are fat: Nashville and Charlotte.

So it’s not the weather. The common thread among the fit cities is YOUTH AND JOBS.

Actually, Charlotte is pretty interesting data point. It’s on the bottom of the list, which by my theory would indicate there are no youth and jobs. But we know that Charlotte is not jobless, so how to explain the low rank? Looking deeper:

Personal health: rank 26
Community health: rank 50

In other words, despite having the worst parks and rec in the nation, the people themselves are fairly fit. That indicates that they are probably YOUNG, or have the JOBS to take care of themselves without the jogging trails.

DC is stiflingly hot.

Charlotte and Nashville are both hot as hell several months out of the year. Standing still outside for 10 minutes to find oneself dripping sweat is not conducive to wanting to exert oneself physically.

As is St. Louis. Awful heat. Humidity from the Mississippi and the Gulf make St Louis a caldron of steam.

And yeah, you’d never catch me in DC from June through October. Awful.

Then please explain why Minneapolis, Atlanta, and Raleigh are all fit. None of them paragons of good weather.

Oh, and did you hear the news? You can exercise INSIDE! They let you do that now. That’s right, you don’t have to go outside. Praise be!

And did you also hear the news that you can be pretty healthy — at least by standard markers — and thin even if you don’t exercise at all?

It must have something to do with all that white on white crime going on in Waco.

It must have something to do with all that white on white crime going on in Waco.

Really? so for purposes of saying that whites are now a minority, Hispanics count as non-whites but for purposes of crime the banditos are whites? This is hard to keep track of. BTW, I think most of the legal immigration from Latin and South America not related to family reunification involves very white Hispanics. Cruz and Rubio are both examples of people that if anyone saw them on the street would consider them to be white.

The fact that they call themselves Banditos doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re all Hispanic.

More importantly, if it is mostly a case of white on white crime, where are the leaders of the white community?

Selling the caskets at 500% markup?

More importantly, if it is mostly a case of white on white crime, where are the leaders of the white community?

Denouncing both gangs, actively working to shut the restaurant down and not blaming the police for shooting criminals.

Before we get too holier than thou, remember that Hitler and Stalin were both white.

While it is certainly true that blacks have a much higher rate of crime and violence in their group - it’s a difference of degree, not kind. Whites have that same kind of violence and crime, but at lower levels. To tar most law abiding blacks with that brush is as unfair as suggesting all whites are rocket scientists.

I started thinking about this since there’s been a truly horrific quadruple murder in DC recently. A wealthy family and their house keeper held captive for a day, then killed with knives and the house torched. It sounded a lot like the Petit murders up in Connecticut. I was wondering about the race of the murderers in this case. Home invasions are sort of popular with Hispanics. But white or Hispanic in this case, it’s kind of a toss-up.

For someone who believes that everyone needs to learn to read, write and speak proper English your grammar and sentence structure is atrocious!

It’s ok. He’s white, so we get what he means.

Plus Colorado probably has the highest number of hikers in the country, which is understandable considering the trails that are available. Some parts of the state may be overpriced, but if your goal is to sit on your ass in a house after spending your weekend doing yard work, you probably shouldn’t be buying in Colorado anyway.

Not you in particular Colorado, but the general population for sure.

All retail is local. Much has to do with store manager, who can make or break a store location.

I find the opposite. The Wal-Mart supercenters are clean, well-lit, well-stocked, food is fine.

I would never have guessed that you would shop at Walmart.

I find the opposite.

Ditto

No, West Sac is a great place, it is just not a good location for me. You indicated buying “shanties” and I have no interest in that product.

They’re all shanties Jingle_Fraud.

Unless you plan on selling real soon, you haven’t made anything. Paper gains can just as easily turn into paper losses.

Overall, credit standards are NOT loosening.

Yes, HBB can bleat about 0% down, but so what. The REAL kicker is income verification and fully amortized PITI Day 1. Anyone see an I/O or neg-am or impossibly low ARM lately? Ain’t no strawberry pickers gonna buy in this environment, even with 0% down.

They’re everywhere Donk. 5% down is subprime.

exactly some of the folks here are to afraid to even dance.

Opportunity costs have them down in the dumps.

You’re underwater on that depreciating shanty Poet. Like millions of others.

Oxnard, CA List Prices Crater 15% YoY; Housing Demand Falls To 20 Year Low

http://www.movoto.com/oxnard-ca/market-trends/

Sell, don’t sell, it makes no difference to me. I’ve saved as much money renting for 20 years as I would have buying a house with a 30 year mortgage. You’re the one whose retirement depends on people buying into a shared delusion.

The neocons’ neocon John Bolton pimps the fear:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/05/14/ex-un-ambassador-national-security-and-2016-election.html

And yet again, zero mention of who pays for all of it

I wonder if Mike Huckabee has the Holy Hand Grenade?

Never mind that the Iraqi army couldn’t stand up to the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog.

A willingness to die, combined with armored bulldozers can accomplish a lot against any army:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/18/asia/isis-ramadi/index.html

Even the Democrats are getting worried.

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/top-democrat-sounds-alarm-bells-over-obama-119369403841.html

Phew! I guess everything is OK now. No problem for a tiny 2nd world nation to pay off $270 billion with a dead economy and crony tax base.

LOL.

The European banks have already been paid courtesy of the European taxpayers, who haven’t figured out yet that they will be the ones paying Greece’s bills.

true dat. The staggering amount given to keep Greece in the EU is testimony to the price the PTB are willing to have everyone else pay to promote one world government.

Interesting thought. Or perhaps they see that cash as having little value? But a real Greek crisis might endanger something of real value?

Whole countries would have to be excluded.

Anybody from a religious minority in those countries has a legitimate fear of persecution and thus can be eligible for admission in this country. Moreover, legally we probably can discriminate on the basis of religion for immigrants since constitutional rights only apply to people residing in this country not people outside the country as the drone strikes demonstrate on an almost daily basis. Got due process?

I suppose you’re right. But it seems like most tinfoil types are more nervous about the imaginary stuff than the real threats.

Like their cholesterol, from the looks of things.

Wouldn’t that just make it easier for the guys in the black helicopters to track them?

You’re assuming that the GPS and towers are operational. In a true go time, the power and the towers would be the first to go.

You’re projecting again MickeyMouse.

“that nickname was given to me by a former co-worker many years ago.”

Who was that George Stephanopoulos?

Bagdad Bob.

So it is in a welfare state. 2.20 everywhere else.

Why would a welfare state have the highest gas prices?

this should be good.

Higher prices for people who can’t afford it is a good thing?

That merely means collapsing demand.

High income/property taxes and impact fees and environmental fees for gas station owners. Owner then need to raise prices to make money on gas.

The taxes and fees go to the welfare state and the insane public unions.

(Police and firefighter unions are insane. Teachers not so much.)

It’s called pricing yourself right out of business Donk.

The same station I paid $1.669/gal on 24 Jan is charging 2.799/gal today. 67% increase in about 4 months.

And a 40% decrease from a year ago.

Everyone needs and likes dramatically lower and more affordable prices. Everyone.

Who cares what they want Poet. Falling prices are what is necessary.

It’s sounds like they’re “riding the tiger.” Once you get on, it’s nearly impossible to get off without being eaten.

It didn’t have to be this way. Greenspan was widely blamed for the stock bubble and even more so for the housing bubble. “Artificially low interest rates” were a common media point. Bernanke and pals could have said in 2009 or so, ‘we’re in recovery, low rates caused a mess before, so let’s not go there.’

He’s the real stooge in all this. He got it into his head he was the only man on the planet that could save the world economy. More of the same, but much more. Japan is the model, to the moon Alice. A good question is, why was he allowed to do it?

Had he just stepped back, we’d probably be out of economic harms way by now.

And we know the Fed monitors blogs. I really hope they read this.

How do we know that, Ben?

‘The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, in a Request for Proposals filed to companies that are Fed vendors, is requesting the creation of a “Social Listening Platform” whose function is to “gather data from various social media outlets and news sources.” It will “monitor billions of conversations and generate text analytics based on predefined criteria.” The Fed’s desired product should be able to “determine the sentiment of a speaker or writer with respect to some topic or document”… “The solution must be able to gather data from the primary social media platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, Forums and YouTube. It should also be able to aggregate data from various media outlets such as: CNN, WSJ, Factiva etc.” Most importantly, the “Listening Platform” should be able to “Handle crisis situations, Continuously monitor conversations, and Identify and reach out to key bloggers and influencers.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-comes-fiattackwatch-bernanke-goes-watergate-prepares-eavesdrop-everything-mentioning-fed

‘why should they’

Door 1: Do nothing and hope for the best.

Door 2: Raise interest rates, crash the markets.

Door 3: Talk endlessly about raising rates, sowing the seeds of uncertainty, then let the markets correct of their own weight. And then raise rates.

Guess which door they will choose?

“Had he just stepped back, we’d probably be out of economic harms way by now.”

But he’s long gone by now, charging $200K+ a pop for speaking engagements and serving as a consultant for hedge funds. When the crash finally arrives, someone else will get the blame.