Because It Has Been Good, It Must Be Good Forever
The Torstar News Service reports from Canada. “A group of midtown Toronto residents has banded together to fight what it’s dubbed ‘density creep,’ amid a push for midrise development citywide that shows no signs of abating. The group of about 50 neighbours claims the project will ruin their stretch of million-dollar homes set on deep, private lots. ‘I’m really concerned about my property value going down,’ says Lisa Goodwin, 49, a stay-at-home mother of two who has lived in a four-bedroom dwelling for 19 years. ‘Right now all the houses are $1.1 to, say, $2.2 (million) but they’re looking at putting in places that are only $500,000.’”
The Guardian on New Zealand. “Economists in New Zealand have expressed alarm at a housing market boom which could soon see average prices of property in the country’s largest city pass the $1m mark. In Auckland, the cost of an average domestic property has risen from $550,000 during the last property boom in 2007 to nearly $810,000 now. Some houses are increasing in value by $1,000 every day while 36 suburbs in the city now have an average house value of $1m or more. And at current rates the whole city’s average will be $1m within a year-and-a-half.”
“Small, one–bedroom apartments are selling for $800,000 and delapidated wrecks in barely desirable suburbs are fetching more than $1m. ‘The narrative goes because it has been good in the last 10 or 15 years, it must be good forever,’ said Shamubeel Eaqub, principal economist at the Institute of Economic Research. But it is impossible for this to continue, he says. ‘Auckland is in a massive bubble.’”
From Arabian Business. “With rents now back soaring and tenants having to compete once again for units, we were surprised to find an interesting report that claims that as much as a fifth of Dubai’s prime properties lie empty for most of the year. This might sound high but it is actually in line with international statistics, which claim that one in four apartments in major cities across the world lie empty. ‘There are no recorded statistics for absentee owners, but in my opinion, I would safely say it is currently in the region of 20 percent of properties, of which buyers mainly come from Europe, Russia, the GCC and to a lesser degree the Indian sub-continent,’ Andrew Cleator, luxury sales director, LuxHabitat, told the Khaleej Times newspaper.”
“Is it time for Dubai to follow suit and implement some form of penalty, such as a tax, on absentee landlords and reduce the number of units lying empty across the city? ‘No we don’t need a tax on undeveloped property as that would most likely lead to an oversupply of property across the market. The ecosystem’s success is the result of a mixture of foreigners permitted to own property, commercial enterprise, the tax status and the overall lifestyle. As a result, Dubai has a huge amount of property under development (visible all around the emirate), and rather than the market at risk of not keeping pace with demand, there is more likely a risk of oversupply,’ said Ryan Mahoney, CEO, Better Homes Real Estate.”
Invest Asian on Singapore. “Real estate prices in Singapore have plummeted since the beginning of 2015, and analysts are worried that the city-states’ property bubble could burst soon. The government of Singapore has tried to cool its property market since 2009. The implementation of the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty in late 2011 imposed an additional 10% tax on foreigners buying property, and was then increased to 15% in 2013 resulting in a reduced transaction volume. Since then, prices have suffered a massive decline and many real estate developers are saying the measures have gone too far, destroying Singapore’s luxury property market.”
“‘Average residential rents across all market segments, particularly the high-end, are on the decline, coupled with a weak secondary market,’ warned Kwek Leng Beng, executive chairman of City Developments Ltd. ‘If this trend continues, with prices dipping more, some mortgage borrowers affected by lower rentals may have difficulty servicing their loans, possibly leading to forced fire sales,’ said Kwek.”
The Hindustan Times in India. “If you own a house and it is unoccupied, you may soon have to pay a new tax—the vacant apartment tax— which will be double the amount levied on the property at present. This move will open up approximately 4.79 lakh houses in Mumbai in the rental market. The draft document states, ‘In order that the vacant flats and plots are put to use, there should be double taxation… This will deter the tendency to maintain the plot and the flat vacant for speculative gains.’”
“Real estate experts welcomed the move. ‘We talk of housing shortage, but the number of vacant houses are increasing by the day. The move is necessary,’ said Pankaj Kapoor, CEO, Liases Foras, a real estate research firm. ‘With an increase in number of houses in the market, the high rentals will be moderated.’ Yeshwant Dalal, president, Estate Agents Association of India, said, ‘Most of the vacant houses are owned by investors who have purchased for speculative gains.’”
Bloomberg on China. “China’s Ordos city, where towers that sprang from Inner Mongolian farmland now sit empty, is showing the hangover has just begun from a decade-long building boom. The city whose fortunes reversed as a coal boom turned to bust is grappling with China’s slumping property market that researcher SouFun Holdings Ltd. said led to more than 10 ‘ghost towns.’”
“Five years after the first building was finished in the eastern city of Tianjin’s replica of Manhattan, the district remains almost deserted. Locals in the city of Handan, where a burst property bubble left half-constructed high-rises, have blocked streets to protest soured investments. ‘Many small-city developers are running into financial trouble,’ said Liu Yuan, a Shanghai-based research director for Centaline Group, China’s biggest property agency. ‘It’s the problem Ordos faces after its property bubble burst.’”
‘Ten days ago, National hoped the big reveal on cracking down on quick-flicking property speculators would have a chilling effect on this very hot potato. But the overwhelming reaction by market analysts to the impending residential property rule change, merely underscores its timidity and inadequacy.’
‘It may have amounted to one of National’s more circus-like flips, flops and pirouettes on capital gains but it’s not going to lead to the retreat of offshore buyers gaming the New Zealand housing market.’
‘The requirement for foreign buyers to register for an IRD number and have a New Zealand bank account will finally see the creation of an official data stream but the stable door has already fallen off its hinges. It’s ludicrously belated.’
‘Not only do their ultra-low-interest deep pockets constantly outbid and outprice local prospective buyers but in many cases their prized acquisition sits idle in suburbia.’
‘Talk to any Christchurch real estate agent, and they all know about the swath of unoccupied “ghost houses”, snapped up by foreigners, without any intention of residing or contributing to the local community. How does that help take the steam out of the rental market?’
‘A recent BNZ report revealed the majority of Chinese buyers had no intention of occupying them. It is equally distasteful that some Christchurch real estate firms have brazenly embarked on a global marketing campaign, spruiking Christchurch homes to the world’s highest bidders.’
‘Bayleys has been particularly active in Shanghai and Beijing, touting trophy homes to the Chinese “mega-rich”. Meanwhile, for the past nine months, Ray White has been advertising all of its New Zealand listings to China, via the Juwai website. A quarter of all inquiries are for its Canterbury listings.’
‘Call me old-school but it’s gross that residential property in Canterbury has become playdough for foreign speculators.’
You are old school. Competing for enormous sums of corrupt and/or dumb Asian money is the new black, the business paradigm of the decade. And a few are making fortunes.
‘What goes up must come down: China’s booming manufacturing sector, which powered through from 2001 to 2010 at a huge cost to the nation’s ecology and people, is in irretrievable decline.’
‘Dongguan City, an important industrial city in China’s southern province of Guangzhou, is experiencing a second wave of business collapse—at least 4,000 businesses shuttered last year. From 2008 to 2012, public data showed that 72,000 corporations closed down.’
‘Then three carriages that pulled Chinese economic growth—investment, foreign trade, and domestic demand—have already died, as seen from the 15 percent fall of year-on-year foreign trade growth for the first quarter this year.’
‘Real estate has driven China’s economic growth for the past 20 years. The communist regime and businesses have worked together to stop the housing market from crashing, but several dozen industries upstream and downstream of the real estate industry have all fallen into production overcapacity since 2013. Production overcapacity was described as a “nuclear threat” to China’s economy, leading to an economic crisis at any time.’
‘These problems indicate restructuring China’s economy is hopeless. The so-called economic structural adjustment is not something that can be put in place as the government wishes. As early as 2005, Guangdong Province had begun replacing labor-intensive industries with technology-intensive high-tech industry. The result is a hollowed-out industry in the Pearl River Delta.’
‘Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao estimated that the population of unemployed stood at 200 million in March 2010. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this March, former senior vice president of the World Bank Justin Lin said 124 million Chinese workers in manufacturing are expected to relocate to other developing countries to seek higher wages.’
‘With China’s current working population of 940 million, once there are 300 million unemployed, the real unemployment rate is equivalent to 32 percent—seven times the official projection.’
‘Inequality in China has reached epic proportions over the last 20 years due to reckless corporatist behavior by the regime and business. The China Social Science Research Center of Peking University released a 2014 study, which showed that China’s Gini coefficient had reached 0.73 in 2012—meaning that the top 1 percent of Chinese households had more than one-third of the national wealth, while the bottom 25 percent of households had only 1 percent of national assets.’
‘Nearly 60 percent of Chinese people are poor, a state of affairs ripe for destabilizing social unrest.’
Despite all those headwinds, China steadfastly maintains GDP growth of around 7%. It’s truly a miracle.
As I posted yesterday, Shanghai real estate is booming, it is a heck of a lot more important than some coal producing town in China. Ironically, since that boom will soon result in more building more coal, cement and steel will be needed so the city does have some hope.
From a booming country to a single booming city. So much for the miracle.
It is most of the Tier One cities, it will be nationwide soon.
Shanghai real estate is booming
I don’t know about booming. My friend who had an apartment on the market for over a year (it was nicer than most, featured in magazines, etc.) FINALLY dumped it this month. So maybe there has been a bit of a bounce. But if it had been booming there would have been multiple offers and a quick sale. There was nothing like that.
It only started to boom in May. Sales from April to May more than double and more than a double from last year.
This is the difference between getting real information as opposed to relying on Party sanctioned propaganda.
And as we all know capital flights, as is happening in China, are harbingers of really bad news ahead. China’s wealthy have their finger on the pulse of what is really happening there, and by their actions we know something is hitting the fan and is only going to get worse.
Also witness China’s saber rattling in the South China Sea. Clearly a distraction for their unwashed. Make them proud at how China stands up to the USA, so that they don’t notice what is really happening.
Colorado, check below about the Falun Gong and then decide who is using propaganda. The Economist Magazine which supports the growth estimates for China of 7% both this year and 2016. The Falun Gong has been disseminating propaganda about China for years due to a dispute between them and the Chinese government. Actually, I believe their religious rights have been violated but I do not believe the lies that they use to try to bring down the government.
How do you say “wag the dog” in Mandarin?
‘Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao estimated that the population of unemployed stood at 200 million in March 2010.”
Why is he former? Don’t you think he has an axe to grind?
There is a pretty good chance that he knows more about the situation in China than we get from the chinadaily.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1408732/ex-china-premier-wen-jiabao-states-innocence-letter-hong-kong-columnist
Excerpt from link plenty of reasons to be attacking a regime cracking down on corruption:
Former premier Wen Jiabao has insisted on his innocence and integrity in a letter to a Hong Kong newspaper columnist in a bid to contain damage from claims that his extended family accumulated massive wealth during his tenure at the top.
“I have never been involved and would not get involved in one single deal of abusing my power for personal gain because no such gains whatsoever could shake my convictions,” Wen said in the letter to Ng Hong-mun, a former deputy to the National People’s Congress, on December 27.
Ng, a veteran columnist, revealed his communication with Wen in an article in Ming Pao yesterday.
The former premier remains under a cloud after The New York Times reported in October 2012 that his family and a web of relatives accumulated US$2.7 billion of hidden assets during his leadership.
Wen stepped down as a member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party’s Politburo in November 2012 and retired as premier in March last year.
“I want to walk the last journey in this world well. I came to this world with bare hands and I want to leave this world clean,” Wen wrote in the letter.
Pressure has been mounting on the former premier to come clean as another former member of the Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang , is reportedly under investigation for corruption.
Rumours that an announcement about Zhou’s downfall is imminent have been rife in recent weeks.
Dozens of his former aides and associates are under investigation for graft, including Jiang Jiemin , Zhou’s former aide who last served as the director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
“Justin Lin said 124 million Chinese workers in manufacturing are expected to relocate to other developing countries to seek higher wages.’
A lifetime ago they were pushed out into the wilderness to farm or die. Then suddenly from the farms to the cities. Now from the cities to the ships. Biggest prison break in human history.
Maybe they will find some places to live where it doesn’t cost 40 years pay to buy a tiny apartment.
Yes, they are installing so many robots and raising pay by 8.5% this year since the unemployment is so high. What a joke. The Economist Magazine surveyed 20 of the best economists in the world just a few weeks ago and they predicted around 7% growth both this year and next but you know more than they do, I guess.
You read the chinadaily before the famous economists even get out of bed. One step ahead.
“Justin Lin said 124 million Chinese workers in manufacturing are expected to relocate to other developing countries to seek higher wages.’
Will other countries welcome them? I seriously doubt it. It’s one thing if you show up with a suitcase full of money, in that case you’ll be welcomed with open arms. Show up broke and looking for a job? Keep moving pilgrim, there’s no room at the Inn.
relocate to other developing countries to seek higher wages.’
Why do I think a fair number of them will end up in California via traditional Mexico smuggling routes.
Think we have a water shortage now just wait after all 7B people and growing are going to try and go somewhere better, always have.
We read a while back that Chinese factories in Africa bring their own prisoner labor force. This is one way for the government to get rid of the unemployed, the Fang nu, protestors, bloggers, the square dancing housewives and the last regime’s “criminals”.
That’s a lot of people to relocate. Wouldn’t be easier (and cheaper) to just have them “disappear”?
Kill off valuable slaves?
From Wikipedia, on a hunch I thought the article was the Falun Gong mortal enemies of the Chinese government, I checked and I was right. No axe to grind here:
Epoch Times was started in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans who were Falun Gong practitioners.[13] The founders were responding to censorship inside China and a lack of understanding internationally about Chinese repression of the Falun Gong.[14][5] In May 2000, the paper was first published in the Chinese language in New York, with the web launch in August 2000.[15]
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Falun_Gong
Read up on the Falun Gong, I think people like dman will think they are the KKK.
‘Affluent Canadians are sitting on an average value of $1.5-million for their homes, a recent poll indicates. That compares with an average price of $448,862 for homes sold in April, according to the latest figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association.’
‘Excluding the red-hot markets for the greater Toronto and Vancouver, the average figure in April was $339,893.’
‘Among other findings of the BMO survey:
-36 per cent of high-net-worth Canadians own a second or additional property
-Of those with a second or additional property, 40 per cent own two or more extra properties
-The top reason for owning a second property is to have vacation time, 47 per cent said
-Among those with an additional property, 80 per cent own one in Canada, 27 per cent in the United States and 11 per cent in Europe.’
‘Affluent Canadians are sitting on an average value of $1.5-million for their homes, a recent poll indicates. That compares with an average price of $448,862 for homes sold in April, according to the latest figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association.’
How come the affluent Canadisns’ homes are so much more valuable than homes sold in market transactions?
Lakefront?
“I used to close around 5-6 property deals a month during 2011-2012. The numbers have now shrunk to 1-2 per month,” says a senior real estate consultant with a leading financial institution in Delhi-NCR, when asked about the status of the industry in recent times. The gradual fall in the fortunes of the sector over the last couple of years has failed to halt despite the big-bang announcements and promises by the NDA government on reforms across sectors including ease of doing business.’
‘The first year of the Narendra Modi government witnessed two policy rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the Reserve Bank of India and an additional tax deduction on Rs 50,000 on the interest component of home loans but the realty sector still awaits a revival of its fortunes.’
‘Even though expectations were high, the industry has only witnessed the situation worsening with time. Unsold inventory has gone up amid weak demand and few project launches across the country.’
It’s not just the developers who are under stress. Brokers and customers, too, are facing the heat. A Noida-based realty broker narrated a similar story: “I was able to close 2-3 deals in a month till 2012, but now even one deal a month is tough. It’s a tough market. A lot of my friends have stopped dealing in real estate now,” he said.’
‘In the meantime, project launches by real estate developers are also on a decline and the unsold inventory is on a rise. According to a report of PropEquity, unsold inventory across 14 leading cities across the country stands at 7.6 lakh units. The inventory pile up has been led primarily by Mumbai Metropolitan Region and the National Capital Region (NCR) with 2.15 lakh and 1.88 lakh unsold units, respectively, as of December 2014.’
“I used to close around 5-6 property deals a month during 2011-2012. The numbers have now shrunk to 1-2 per month,” says a senior real estate consultant with a leading financial institution in Delhi-NCR
So has India run out of “Black Money”?
‘Property developers may incur up to S$90 million in extension charges for unsold units in their condo projects from April to December 2015, followed by S$238 million in 2016 if the health of Singapore’s real estate market does not improve.’
‘This adds up to a staggering S$328 million that developers are expected to fork out in the worst-case scenario should they fail to sell any units by end-2016, according to calculations by property consultancy firm Cushman and Wakefield (C&W).’
‘As at the end of the first quarter, developers had paid about S$119 million in extension fees for unsold units for condos completed from 2010 onwards. Condos completed before that were mostly fully sold in the property market boom, C&W said.’
‘Since “foreign” developers are required to sell their units within two years of completion, more would be incurring these charges in 2016, compared to 2015. The definition of “foreign” includes developers with even just one foreign shareholder or director, which is why all listed companies are deemed “foreign”.
‘Wing Tai has another upscale project nearby, Le Nouvel Ardmore, which remains 91 per cent unsold a year after completion. It will incur about S$15 million in charges if sales continue to be dismal.’
‘Also in the vicinity is Wheelock’s Ardmore 3. The 96 per cent unsold translates to about S$14 million in QC charges by end-2016 if units remain unsold. As for China Sonangol’s TwentyOne Angullia Park, 83 per cent was unsold at last count, which means it may incur up to S$19 million in extension fees by end-2016.’
‘C&W research director Christine Li thinks that there is little hope of projects moving by themselves, judging from how some projects here have not sold anything at all in the last two years. “On the other hand, developers who have been proactive in marketing either individual units or bulk purchases of whole projects have achieved better results,” she said.’
‘Lee Liat Yeang, real estate lawyer at Rodyk & Davidson, said that developers need to do the math. “If the QC company has a few units left, it might wish to consider selling the units off at a bargain discount. After all, such units will contribute to profits and it makes sense to just clear them and move on.”
‘Leasing activity increased in the first quarter, but average rents fell, according to real estate firm CBRE. But the increase in rental volume did not push up rents, which fell in all regions.’
‘Mr Joseph Tan, executive director of CBRE’s residential division, said the sharper falls in the core central and outside central regions were mainly due to an increased supply of rental properties.’
‘He said the core central zone traditionally has the highest supply of rental stock but had been hit by the availability of newer housing at lower rents as well as by the “shrinking budget of expatriates”.
‘Mr Tan added that an “unprecedented” number of new condominiums had been built in the outside central region last year.’
‘He said many of these condos had been bought for investment rather than occupation by their owners, adding: “Under the present lull market, these owners were more prepared to secure tenants at lower rents rather than leave them vacant.”
‘Rents declined across all property classes as well. Compared with the first quarter of last year, average rents for luxury properties fell 2 per cent to $4.95 psf per month, rents for prime properties fell 4.2 per cent to $4.55 psf and those for other property fell 6 per cent to $3.15 psf, said CBRE.’
‘CBRE expects the increase in rental volume to be temporary. It estimates that the full-year’s leasing volume will fall by 5 per cent to 10 per cent compared with last year, mainly owing to more foreigners on a work pass opting to become PRs and citizens, and buying rather than renting property, as well as expatriates leaving.’
‘It also expects rents to decline by 5 to 7 per cent, citing the “mounting pressure” from the rising supply of properties. It said nearly 22,000 new homes are expected to have been built by the end of this year, 10.4 per cent more than the 19,921 built last year.’
‘There are currently 1,100 residential detached single family homes for sale in Kelowna. This is a pretty big number for a town our size especially in the middle of a hot market, but breaking down that number changes the narrative a bit.’
‘If we eliminate homes currently for sale in Beaverdell and Fintry (just because) there are only 134 homes for sale that are priced under $400,000. 134! The sub $400,000 market has produced 220 sales so far this year so demand is high while supply is limited. This market is ultra super-sonic competitive for buyers and anything reasonably priced is selling quickly. Buyers already know this though and are often faced with unenviable options of finding more money (usually unrealistic) or lowering expectations. Waiting for prices to drop is always an option but if you can find a home in a nice neighbourhood priced in the $300s just take the plunge and grab it. It might not have a double garage, perhaps no ensuite and a lot of other things on your list may be missing but that same home will be more expensive next year and it could be the smartest financial decision you’ll ever make.’
‘At the other end of the market things are different. There are 274 residential single family homes priced over $800,000 and we’ve reported 51 sales this year. That works out to two years of supply! Unlike first time buyers in the affordable part of the market, buyers at this end of the spectrum have a lot less pressure on them to make a decision today. They can see a home and think about it for a while before making an offer. If they lose the home they liked, they can always pursue the two others for sale on the street.’
‘Advice for sellers hoping to move this year is when an offer comes in, figure out a way to make it work. The price might be less than what you’re hoping for and the dates might not be ideal, but just make it work somehow because your neighbours would love to be in your shoes and they’d figure out how to make it work.’
‘The spread between Kelowna prices and the Canadian average used to be significantly wider and the gap is clearly shrinking. How come? The simple explanation is the Vancouver and Toronto markets skew the numbers off the charts but haven’t they always? Perhaps our service based economy is keeping prices from surging here while they do elsewhere. Kelowna has never had a blue chip economy especially when compared to major Canadian centres but we’ve always had a blue chip housing market. Either that’s changed (it hasn’t) or we’re poised for housing gains to which the rest of Canada has experienced.’
‘Home buyers crowd around to make their purchases on Evolve’s opening day.’
‘Buying real estate in Metro Vancouver is becoming more difficult as costs soar, but one Surrey condo developer is offering a tempting incentive. Evolve Condominiums is offering either a storage locker full of $10,000 cash or a new Nissan Micra for 20 homebuyers.’
‘Kiran Rai, marketing directorat Macdonald Realty Platinum Project Marketing, said about 35 per cent of the allotted homes in the offer have been sold and most people have chosen the money over the car, also valued at about $10,000.’
‘The development, one of six condo towers planned by WestStone group in West Village, drew crowds of prospective homebuyers in April when they offered about 80 microsuites starting at $93,900.’
‘The developer sold 300 homes on their opening day with suites in the 35-storey tower ranging from 316 to 1,294 square feet.’
‘Over the next seven years, 2,800 homes will be built in West Village and homeowners are expected to start moving in by 2018. “Especially in this market, buyers should do their research and see what’s out there. There are a lot of projects in Surrey at the moment,” Rai said. “I think this is a great deal, especially for first-time buyers.”
This all seems just like a total repeat of the 2004 bubble. I guess we can print up a bunch more cash and mop up the losses indefinitely?
With only a couple of holdouts, this is a global ideological homogenization like the world has never seen before. We’re all on the same boat and it will go over the falls.
like the world has never seen before ??
The financial engineering sure is…How it unwinds is the question…A slow leak over many, many years or a pop….They are trying to manage and orchestrait the slow leak….
Agreed, and it’s much worse in other countries, where buyers are borrowing as much as 20x their annual incomes to buy real estate.
And they don’t have 30 year, fixed rate mortgages.
10x in the US or 20X elsewhere is a distinction without a different. The end result in the same.
There should be an award for those who buy at the top.
There should be an award for those who buy at the top.
The Atlantis Cup?
‘New wind projects will not approved the following year in places where more than 20 percent of their wind electricity is abandoned, China’s energy regulator said.’
‘China’s newly installed wind power capacity jumped to a record high of 19.81 million kilowatts in 2014. Wind power generated 153.4 billion kilowatt hours of electricity last year, accounting for 2.78 percent of the country’s total generated electricity and making it the third-largest source of electricity after thermal power and hydropower.’
‘However, wind electricity waste is a headache for China thanks to imbalanced distribution of wind resources and imperfect grid system. Wind-rich provinces are mainly in the less developed north and northwest regions where electricity supply exceeds demand.’
‘An average of 8 percent of wind electricity was abandoned last year, down 4 percentage points from the previous year. Yet, the situation turned worse in the first three months of this year with 18.6 percent of wind power production going to waste, 6.6 percentage points higher year on year.’
‘The NEA attributed the increased wasting during the period to better wind conditions and weak demand of electricity.’
It’s funny the government has to tell them no more will be approved.
‘abandoned’
Why would they abandon newly built capacity? Seems very wasteful.
It’s not the capacity that’s abandoned, it’s the electricity itself. But I’m sure it counts toward GDP.
Sounds a bit like digging ditches then refilling them.
Yes, the politically well connected companies in China are actively buying up stakes in resources companies because they see the imminent collapse of China, LOL:
http://en.chinamining.com.cn/News/2015-05-26/1432620889d72334.html
Excerpt:
AFP)
Updated: 2015-05-26 14:13
Counter:
Shares in Australian iron ore giant Fortescue Metals soared almost 13 percent on Tuesday on speculation that two of China’s largest companies are poised to pump money into the struggling miner.
Fortescue is one of the world’s four big iron ore exporters, along with Australia’s BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale, but has been battling slumping prices for the steel-making commodity.
The Australian Financial Review reported that China’s largest steelmaker Baosteel and its biggest conglomerate CITIC had held talks with Fortescue about an investment to help shore up its balance sheet.
China is Australia’s largest market for iron ore and the news sent Fortescue shares surging as much as 12.90 percent to Aus$2.49 in morning trade.
The Financial Review said there were no moves to take over Fortescue, but the two companies were interested in buying a stake, with the Foreign Investment Review Board reportedly approached seeking permission for an investment.
Fortescue released a statement saying it does not comment on speculation.
“Fortescue is not aware of FIRB applications by third parties and is in compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations,” the company said.
Morningstar resources analyst Mathew Hodge said the share price boost could be attributed to the Chinese investment speculation as well as a two percent spike in the iron ore price to $US61 a tonne.
Yeah, the well connected are just as stupid as the square dancing housewives.
‘The city whose fortunes reversed as a coal boom turned to bust is grappling with China’s slumping property market that researcher SouFun Holdings Ltd. said led to more than 10 ‘ghost towns.’
One would think the government would “tell” them no more ghost towns will be approved.
“Public square dancing” is a popular pastime in China, particularly among older women known as damas. But they’re considered a nuisance among some local residents, who complain about being disturbed by loud music. As a result, the authorities have stepped in to regulate and choreograph the dancing, the state-run China Daily website reports. Any groups wanting to get their groove on in public will now be limited to 12 government-approved routines, the report says. “Square-dancing represents the collective aspect of Chinese culture, but now it seems that the over-enthusiasm of participants has dealt it a harmful blow, with disputes over noise and venues,” says Liu Guoyong from the General Administration of Sport, which is overseeing the regulation along with the culture ministry. “So, we have to guide it with national standards and regulations.”
‘The choreography has been put together by an expert panel, the website says, and more than 600 instructors have been trained. “The unified drills will help keep the dancing on the right track where they can be performed in a socially responsible way,” says Wang Guangcheng, a fitness trainer and member of the panel.’
The city whose fortunes reversed as a coal boom turned to bust is grappling with China’s slumping property market that researcher SouFun Holdings Ltd. said led to more than 10 ‘ghost towns.’
It happens, look what happened when oil shale went bust in Parachute, Colorado. It did not cause the U.S. to collapse.
Talk about central planning. Only twelve allowed square dance routines? Were these older women being too decadent? Nothing could be as decadent as unrestrained greed. Interesting that the Chinese state will regulate dancing but not real estate speculation.
‘These “damas” move in unison in everything they do – from dancing and travelling in groups to making joint investments in properties.’
2014-9-8
‘Frequent media coverage of middle-aged Chinese women square dancing has caused many to associate these women only with this boisterous activity. Known as dama, literally “big mother” in Chinese, these women have even made a splash outside the country as well.’
‘However, the somewhat teasing reportage of dama masks the fact that many of them are actually serious about things other than square dancing, namely investing.’
“Some media reports are exaggerating the troublemaking of dama who love square dancing,” said a Beijing resident Yang in her 50s, refusing to give her full name.’
‘Calling herself a dama, Yang told the Global Times on Wednesday that “we’ve also been making a contribution to the economy,” referring to their readiness to dip into their cash pile to invest in a variety of conduits.’
‘In mid-April 2013, when gold prices fell to about 370 yuan ($60) per gram from about 410 yuan per gram at the beginning of 2013, Yang thought it would be the best time to invest in gold and bought a 500-gram gold bullion bar.’
‘Likewise, many other middle-aged Chinese women who handle the money in their families also rushed to join a gold-buying binge at the same time. This reportedly resulted in 300 tons of gold being bought within 10 days during that month, which played a strong role in helping the global gold price to hold steady for a short period of time. Because of this, even Goldman Sachs Group was said to have been forced to halt their short-selling in gold later in the month.’
‘Amazed by the phenomenon, the Wall Street Journal used the term directly in an article published in August 2013 about the rising appetite for gold consumption among Chinese dama.’
‘A downward spiral in gold prices, which now stand at about 300 yuan per gram, had dama such as Yang mired in losses. Still, some of them are continuing their pursuit of investment vehicles, unfazed by fluctuations in the price of gold which they see as a long-term bet.’
“I’m considering investing in stocks,” said Yang.’
The jokes write themselves.
From China Daily while the stocks are not cheap like last year being at your historical averages is not bubble territory:
Equity markets on the Chinese mainland have been among the best-performing in the world over the past year and indeed over longer time horizons. Yet, many foreign institutional investors have been underweight on China versus benchmark weightings in global equity indexes, such as those provided by MSCI Inc or FTSE/Xinhua.
It is important to recognize that for the longer-term investor, the key driver of performance for any equity market is growth in earnings and dividends. Here, China has a strong story to tell.
The MSCI China index, which covers China-based companies listed in Hong Kong or the United States, has recorded a compound annual growth rate of 13 percent in earnings per share over the past 10 years, expressed in dollar terms. When it comes to dividends per share, the CAGR was 11 percent, also in dollar terms. These numbers were far in excess of the averages recorded in emerging markets overall (5 percent and 6 percent, respectively).
So China’s corporate sector has done a good job of translating superior economic growth into superior earnings and dividend growth. Hence, it should be no surprise that MSCI China has delivered a cumulative return of 315 percent in dollar terms over the past 10 years versus just 145 percent for the broad MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark.
Yet, foreign institutional investors have clearly been skeptical about the sustainability of this earnings and dividend growth. There is much debate over whether China will be successful in transitioning its growth model toward consumption and services, and the extent to which the economy has become overly reliant on leverage to drive growth.
This debate meant that, until recently, China equities both onshore and offshore have traded at a valuation discount to other emerging markets and global equities more generally.
For instance, this time a year ago, the MSCI China traded at a trailing price-earnings multiple of just 9.3 times, which was a 25 percent discount to global emerging markets, while the Shanghai Composite traded at 9.6 times.
That has changed recently, with a substantial re-rating of both markets. The main factor driving this change has been a resurgence of interest in equities as an investment asset class from domestic investors in China and a recent rise in southbound flows into the Hong Kong market through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program.
Foreign institutional investors’ interest in China has also begun to improve, particularly since monetary policy easing began late last year.
The MSCI China has re-rated in trailing P/E multiple terms to 12.8 times, now broadly in line with other emerging market equities. The equivalent multiple on the Shanghai Composite has risen to 20.1 times. Both are now back at long-run average levels.
For years I was a bear on China, I saw that as it exhausted its natural resources and supply of cheap labor its low value added production could not sustain its growth rates and it would be stuck in the middle income nation trap. Last summer, I saw signs that China was having success in moving up the value added chain. Apparently, so did a lot of other people because that is when the stock market started to turn around. I am just the messenger.
‘that is when the stock market started to turn around’
No, stocks took off when the government told them to buy stocks.
‘China will give investors much greater access to its stock market, a big step in Beijing’s efforts to lure foreign capital and part of attempts to overhaul its economy.’
‘The program allows global investors to invest in a wide range of companies that had been largely cut off from international money, and many of which are expected to benefit from the shift of China’s economy from manufacturing toward consumer spending.’
‘For China, the hope is that foreign investors will bring some order to what is an unruly market, driven by fast-trading small investors, that until this year was one of the world’s worst performers.’
http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-opens-doors-to-foreign-investment-in-stocks-1415604267
Chinese Government Hypes Stocks
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/23/soaring-chinese-stocks-inevitable-rational-government/
‘I was a bear on China’
From bear to stridently denouncing Falun Gong. Quite a transformation.
Damas are one of the best aspects of Chinese culture. I love those sweet old women. They make my tea, they take my meal orders, they smile, they try to tell me jokes. I’ll catch up to one or two while hiking, we’ll walk together for a bit and point and smile at anything that looks nice along the way. Good peeps those retired old ladies…
From bear to stridently denouncing Falun Gong. Quite a transformation.
I think their own ideology denounces them. That is why I asked people just to read it.
You asked why they would abandon new wind farms. There could be several reasons. I have a good friend who worked for years as a wind farm technician and then site manager. There is a wide range of quality in the various turbine mfgrs, from Yugo to Lexus, using an automotive reference.
If they put in Yugo-quality turbines, they probably didn’t work very well, and required constant repairs, from day 1.
The only way wind makes sense is if you use Lexus-quality turbines. And have a means of energy storage (pumped-hydro, etc).
If they are abandoning wind farms, why did the government have to tell them more wouldn’t be approved? Sounds like they were still building.
From an electrical system stability point of view, wind farms are one of the worst things to add to the grid. System operators already have to deal with varying load on the demand side, and then you go and add varying supply which is not controllable by the system operators, so more balls up in the air to juggle.
If there is no need for the power at the moment at which the wind picks up, then system operators have to dial back other online plants in order to keep supply-demand in balance on the grid (otherwise, unstability and subsequent massive outages as the grid falls apart). Utilities hate wind for that reason (not because they are anti-green).
The grid cannot store energy. Plus, when there is no wind, you still have to have the conventional power plants anyways to make up for the lost power. No real savings there, as now we have conventional plants PLUS wind farms to operate & maintain . . .
So the decision may have been made on that basis. No way to say for sure.
‘So the decision may have been made on that basis’
IMO, these reports show more of what’s really going on. For instance, why build a city no one uses? Then build 10 more. They are wasting up to 20 of what they produce, and the government has to make them stop? Here’s what I bet; ‘hey, it’s windy here. I got a friend in the steel biz and trucking biz and they’ll kick me back a bunch if we can push this thing through.’ Logical needs of energy and population didn’t enter into it.
It also points to a conclusion I reached about China; if they were really growing at 10, then 9 now down to 7%, they wouldn’t have the resources to waste. That’s breakneck. Wasting material and men and land would have prevented the robust economy from other achievements. The first empty city would have been met with the public execution of all involved. But no, they keep going. My conclusion is, like these wind plants, they are just building stuff. Empty hotels, malls, trains. It counts toward some bureaucrats bonus and plenty get a piece. But the fact is, IMO, China is a debt-burdened economic basket-case that has everybody fooled. And is run by fools.
I assume it creates the 7% number.
‘Condo investors in Canada’s two biggest condo markets – Toronto and Vancouver – appear to be in it for the long haul, with plans to keep their units at least five years and rent them out, rather than flip them for a quick profit, according to a new survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.’
“The results illustrate that most COS (Condo Owners Survey) investors own few units. In fact, nearly three-quarters of COS investors own only one secondary unit, while 10 per cent own three or more secondary units,” said Dana Senagama, CMHC’s principal market analyst for Toronto in a statement.’
‘But the report also hints at a significant slowdown in investor activity among domestic condo purchasers. Some 90 per cent of those surveyed have no intention of buying another unit within the next year, the survey found.’
‘The survey is yet another attempt by the federal housing agency to get a grip on exactly who owns condo units, in part to allay any fears that the condo sector could be in trouble if housing prices flatline or slip and investors – who are widely believed to own anywhere from 40 to 90 per cent of units, especially in some downtown condo towers – start selling off units in a mad panic.’
‘This report is likely to be greeted with far less skepticism than its last major look at the condo sector in Toronto and Vancouver, when it tried to solve the biggest mystery in the sector – how many units in those hot housing markets are owned by foreign investors. It was widely criticized among long-time housing watchers for saying just 2.4 per cent of units in Toronto and 2.3 per cent in Vancouver were foreign-owned.’
‘CMHC acknowledged that it came up with those numbers simply by asking condo corporations and property-management companies for 92,257 GTA rental units which of their owners have mailing addresses outside of Canada.’
“Economists in New Zealand have expressed alarm at a housing market boom which could soon see average prices of property in the country’s largest city pass the $1m mark. In Auckland, the cost of an average domestic property has risen from $550,000 during the last property boom in 2007 to nearly $810,000 now. Some houses are increasing in value by $1,000 every day while 36 suburbs in the city now have an average house value of $1m or more. And at current rates the whole city’s average will be $1m within a year-and-a-half.”
Robert Shiller shows a price history of real estate bsck to 1890 in his book, Irrational Exuberance. The upshot: Prices barely moved beyond inflation for over a century.
To hear the Kiwi economists describe it, price swings exceeding fifty percent over a few years’ time are the new normal.
“Five years after the first building was finished in the eastern city of Tianjin’s replica of Manhattan, the district remains almost deserted.”
Similar stranded investment occurred in the U.S. towards the onset of the Great Depression. I recall my dad pointing out skyscrapers around my home town that went up in the 1920s, only to sit empty in the 1930s.
But to my knowledge, the US. did not see the construction of entire cities full of empty highrises. Only a knucklehead could fail to see a problem with that.
‘A bottle maker in China said it won’t be able to fully repay a bond due May 28, raising concern it will become the third company to default in the onshore note market this year as the economy slows.’
‘Zhuhai Zhongfu Enterprise Co., which supplies bottles for Coca-Cola Co. and PepsiCo Inc. in China, can only repay 148 million yuan ($23.9 million) of the 590 million yuan principal, according to a statement.’
‘China’s economy, which slowed to its weakest pace since 1990 last year, has shown little evidence of an acceleration even after the central bank cut interest rates three times since November. Cloud Live Technology Group Co., another private-sector company, reneged on obligations in April and Baoding Tianwei Group Co., a power-equipment maker, became the nation’s first state-owned enterprise to default on domestic debt.’
“Chinese companies’ credit profiles are worsening because the economy hasn’t stabilized,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shanghai. “We may see more defaults in the coming months. The worst is yet to come.”
‘Defaults among Chinese companies are increasing after Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. last year became the nation’s first to miss payments on onshore bonds. Foreign investors are also increasing scrutiny after Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. became the first Chinese developer to default on its U.S. currency debt in April.’
“China has a lot of bonds maturing this year and many of their issuers have weak credit strength,” said Zhang Li, a bond analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. in Beijing. “That’s why we’ve seen so many defaults in the past two months.”
And the punch line:
‘Despite the concerns about its ability to meet obligations, the company’s shares in Shenzhen soared 126 percent this year through April 29 amid a rally in Chinese equities. Its stock has been suspended from trade since after that day.’
Are we really to a point that a $23 million dollar failure is used as a sign that a 11 trillion dollar economy is in trouble?
‘Euphoric investors intoxicated by the surging Chinese stock market should be aware that discretion is the better part of valor.’
‘The Chinese stock market has seen an impressive rebound since the second half of 2014 after being stuck in the doldrums for about six years. The government has lauded the rally, believing it serves the twin purposes of providing funds for small businesses, which are usually denied bank loans, and helping state-owned enterprises pay debts.’
‘The seemingly unstoppable run on the stock market has attracted more and more investors, with millions of new accounts opened every week since March. Headline-grabbing stories include housewives choosing to drop their old hobbies of square dancing to jump on the stock bandwagon.’
‘However, the steep rise of share prices has fueled concerns that caution has been thrown to the wind. The Securities Regulatory Commission has issued warnings over accumulating risks on 10 occasions already this year.’
‘ChiNext-listed companies boast an average price-earnings (PE) ratio of more than 100, indicating a speculative bubble. For example, shares in Baofeng Tech., a small online video firm with lackluster first quarter performance, surged more than 2,000 percent to around 250 yuan per share from 7.14 yuan in March.’
‘As the share prices have become incommensurate with the companies’ fundamentals, selling off and securing profits is an irresistible attraction for big stake-holders, which can hurt small investors as share prices subsequently nosedive.’
‘However, as economic pundits have often joked, even bad news can be interpreted as good news for the Chinese stock market these days. For example, investors are accustomed to shrugging off poor readings of economic data, thinking they signal more easing policies.’
Square dancing.
Certainly, some bubble stocks but than again what is FB present PE? The moving up the food chain certainly is real:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/auto/Automakers-show-off-smart-cars-linked-through-IOT-at-CES-Asia/shdaily.shtml
FB even with today’s decline has a PE of 77, Amazon is losing money but it has a forward PE of 167. Come on China, you can create a better bubble.
Cockroach Theory again
There’s an estimated 28 trillion of them in the woodwork.
The trouble with a gigantic pyramid of debt is that it has to keep growing exponentially just to survive. Reports of growth failing to meet expectations signal anyone with half a brain to get out quick. Reports of defaults and contraction signal that it is probably too late to get your money back.
“All new loans are being used to pay the old loans.”
That’s the only one?
Stock prices and fundamentals appear to have decoupled.
The median house hold income in NZ is about 70K. So we’re talking 14x, in a low population, low density country.
I took a vacation there in the late 1990s. The locals were quick to let you know that sheep substantially outnumbered people in the country. I shared a laugh with an Auckland taxi driver about buying land in the extreme South Island. “Plenty of property there!” he said. Now it’s not so funny.
‘Since publishing his book last year, Lindsay David, founder of LF Economics, author of Australia: Boom to Bust, and resident doomsayer of the Australian economy has made a name for himself issuing dire warnings about the coming property market crash and railing against the government and particularly the finance, insurance and real estate industries.’
‘Since 1996, Australia has experienced a nationwide boom in housing prices, with real and quality-adjusted prices rising by 121 per cent to 2014, “the largest and most persistent price growth since records began in 1880”.
‘He claims there are clear parallels between Australia today and the US and Ireland pre-2007. “People think you’re crazy, but slowly but surely I see a lot more people coming around to the idea,” he said. “But when everyone knows there’s a bubble, it’s too late.”
‘When you can get better deals on vacant land in Malibu, California, two kilometres from the beach with a view of the Pacific Ocean than you can in Alice Springs, there’s something very wrong, he argues.’
‘Between 1996 and 2014, housing prices and mortgage debt outpaced economic fundamentals like inflation, GDP, rents and incomes. “When you look at it today, between end of 1996 and 2014, household debt outpaced inflation at a rate of 10 to one,” he said.’
‘When you can get better deals on vacant land in Malibu, California, two kilometres from the beach with a view of the Pacific Ocean than you can in Alice Springs, there’s something very wrong, he argues.’
Like I’ve been saying, compared to other countries, property in the USA is “cheap”, which is scary, because property in the US currently isn’t “cheap”.
Alice Springs is a surprisingly interesting place, but when you get town to it, it’s a desert town in the middle of the Outback. I guess prices there are high because they’re not making any more land.
I practically grew up in this greene and greene. I didn’t live here but I didn’t need a key to get inside!
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/325-Oaklawn-Ave-South-Pasadena-CA-91030/20694580_zpid/
In 2009 I posted this house here, and it was estimated at 1.1 mill
A thirsty house with a yard more like Hawaii than S. CA
Ouch. That Kitchen. Time for a 100k remodel.
‘The 27-year-old son son of China’s richest man is causing quite a stir in Shanghai after posting photos of his dog wearing two gold Apple Watches with the caption, “I have new watches! I’m supposed to have four watches since I have four long legs. But that seems too uncouth so I kept it down to two, which totally fits my status. Do you have one?”
‘The photos were uploaded to Chinese social media site Weibo, (WB) where the heir maintains a page dedicated to his dog. The posts have recieved more than 6,000 comments so far - many of which are laced with outrage and jealousy.’
‘Sicong Wang also upset Chinese press on Valentine’s Day when he remarked that his potential girlfriends were required to be buxom. The comments caused Chinese state-run news agency, Xinhua, to write a 1300 word column condemning them.’
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-heir-buys-apple-watches-for-dog-163153148.html
Practically a Leona Helmsley moment with the dog, which probably has more common sense than he does. That princeling can’t imagine that anything bad might ever happen to him. But I bet the 6,000 commenters can.
“Let them eat dogfood”(?)
Oh for Christ’s sake. More from the article:
Wang Sicong is the son of Wang Jianlin who runs the real estate development company Dalian Wanda and is worth approximately $34 billion.
This isn’t the first time the younger Wang has caused an uproar. On May 1st he posted a photo of the same Husky with a Fendi bag around his neck with the caption, “My daddy said I am a sled dog and count as part of the workforce. He got me this bag as a gift for Labor Day.” The dog reportedly lives a lavish lifestyle. According to Chinese news agencies, he only drinks Fiji water and is walked with Hermes leashes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Jianlin
http://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/36pjr3/canada_is_out_of_control_housing_priceincome/
Home Prices Index for Metro Cities Up 5% in March
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2015/05/home-prices-index-for-metro-cities-up-5.html
Indices aren’t prices.
Look at this.
Mountain View, CA Sale Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/mountain-view-ca/home-values/