June 8, 2015

This Is A Different Market

A report from the Coloradoan. “Critics say rising home prices are threatening the future character of Old Town Fort Collins. With many homes between 900 and 1,200 square feet, Old Town was a viable option for first-time homebuyers attracted by the small sizes and lower prices — up until about five years ago. The average sale price of a single-family home in Old Town last year topped $339,000, not the highest sale prices in the city but a far cry from the average $266,000 of five years ago, based on the Coloradoan analysis. ‘The price per square foot is astronomical,’ said Joel Schwartzkopf, a physician’s assistant at an urgent care in Cheyenne. ‘All of these houses are going for over $500,000, that’s way too much to spend on a house.’ Even with a large down payment, the monthly mortgage would be more than $2,500 a month, he said, adding, ‘I was brought up to be a little more responsible than that.’”

“Old Town is on pace for about 120 sales this year, ‘the second-lowest number since 2010,’ when Fort Collins was coming out of the recession, said Eric Thompson of Windermere Real Estate in Fort Collins. It’s really the land that’s appreciating as opposed to the physical structure, Thompson said. ‘What will happen in the future are more remodels and tear downs. The underlying land value will support more expensive physical structures.’”

The Merced Sun Star in California. “In the coming months, the Merced County Planning Commission is expected to see a plan for a new housing subdivision in Planada, the first in about a decade, according to county officials. The area has seen some interest from investors, said Brandon Ruscoe, an associate broker with Merced Yosemite Realty in Merced, and the approval of a new subdivision would be good news for the area. He said many homebuyers who have been on the fence or who can’t afford prices in Merced would likely look at buying homes in Planada. ‘When inventory is tight like that, they end up competing with investors,’ he said.”

The East End Beacon in New York. “Few issues have recently riled up the citizenry of Southold as much as internet-based rental services. Attorney Abigail Field of Cutchogue said she represents several responsible landlords who rent their houses short-term. She said that many people who own second homes on the North Fork simply allow their friends to use their houses, which would not address the concerns of community members who don’t like seeing new strangers in their neighborhood each week. ‘It’s very important for the board and community to get a sense for who some of these people are. There’s a perception they’re investors and people who have no ties to the community,’ she said.”

“Judith Ullman lives in Brooklyn, but she owns a small cabin in Southold Town, which she bought knowing she couldn’t afford it unless she rented it out. She said she hopes to one day retire on the North Fork. ‘You’ve got landlords who stink and you’ve got landlords like us who are invested and responsible,’ she said.”

The Houston Business Journal in Texas. “Houston’s hot multifamily construction market is cooling faster than expected amid the oil downturn, according to a new report. As energy companies announce layoffs and budget cuts, funding for new apartment construction is drying up and developers are stalling dozens new projects in the Bayou City. On the other hand, Houston’s single-family construction market seems to be holding up despite the oil slump. Homebuilders broke ground on $1.72 billion worth of new homes in the first quarter of 2015, compared to $1.65 billion in the first quarter of 2014, according to CMD Group.”

“‘It’s pretty hard to knock the stuffing out of that sector,’ said Alex Carrick, CMD Group’s chief economist. ‘Houston’s population is growing. You’ve got to have increased housing stock.’”

The Williston Herald in North Dakota. “The collapse of crude oil prices has forced rents to drop more than $1,000 a month in Watford City. North Dakota’s housing units increased 10.4 percent between 2010 and mid-2014, and remains the fastest growing county in the nation, according to the latest annual report from the U.S. Census Bureau. Between 2010 and mid-2014, Williams County’s growth ranked No. 1 in the nation, with a 56.8 percent rate in housing units, according to the census bureau report. Williston issued building permits for 1,630 units in 2014, and officials estimated more than 2,000 units would come online by the end of the year.”

“‘We have a tremendous amount of inventory here,’ said Shawn Wenko, executive director of Williston Economic Development.”

Bloomberg on Florida. “The sales office for condominiums at Miami’s Brickell City Centre attracted more than 100 visitors daily last year, with prospective buyers crowding in and snapping selfies beside a scale model of the $1 billion project. Now, the flow of people has trickled to about a quarter of what it once was. ‘Buyers are asking really good questions’ instead of rushing into deals, said Stephen Owens, president of the U.S. unit of Hong Kong-based Swire Properties Ltd., the developer of the 9-acre condo, hotel, office and shopping complex. ‘Two years ago, it was, ‘Where can I sign?’”

“In response, developers are delaying projects, lowering down-payment requirements and turning their focus to Americans. ‘We’ve seen a very strong shift in the last year in the dollar — it has literally pushed whole countries out of the marketplace,’ said Kevin Maloney, principal of Property Markets Group, which is developing Echo Brickell, a 57-story luxury tower that will have a shark tank in the lobby. ‘We look around as real estate guys and say, ‘Jeez, who is our buyer?’ he said. ‘Now you are going to allocate more of your dollars to domestic United States.’”

“More than 3,000 condo units planned for construction are at risk of delay, said Anthony Graziano, senior managing director at Integra Realty Resources Inc., which prepared the report. He estimates that international buyers account for as much as 95 percent of downtown’s new-condo market. Carlos Rosso, president of Related Group of Florida’s condo division, doesn’t expect a repeat of the bust of the last decade, which left thousands of new units empty as speculators pulled out of deals, sending Miami-area home values plunging by half before bottoming in 2011.”

“‘Everybody is looking at Miami and saying when is something bad going to happen?’ Rosso said. ‘And I say this is a different market. You’re not going to have a bubble burst.’”




RSS feed

62 Comments »

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-06-08 05:35:58

‘All of these houses are going for over $500,000, that’s way too much to spend on a house.’ Even with a large down payment, the monthly mortgage would be more than $2,500 a month, he said, adding, ‘I was brought up to be a little more responsible than that.’

It costs more to buy a place there than to rent a four bedroom home in San Diego. Are those people high on drugs?

Comment by Dman
2015-06-08 06:57:34

So what’s a two bedroom apartment going for? If it’s even half of a $2,500 a month mortgage payment, who in their right mind would buy a house there right now?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-06-08 07:14:55

You can buy a house in Ft. Collins for much less than that, it’s just in “Old Town” (downtown) that nut jobs have driven up the prices.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-06-08 07:20:46

Whatever charm that area has is about to be obliterated by charmless, hurriedly-built McMansions. We are in a very destructive mode right now.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-06-08 07:32:39

Old town is overrated. And from the people I know who either live there, or want to live there, it’s because of the old, small houses and the proximity to downtown businesses. I suspect the bubble will pop before they start tearing down and rebuilding.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2015-06-08 07:37:38

What is especially odd about Ft. Collins is that the jobs base isn’t all that. Most of the major employers, like HP, Intel, Advanced Energy, etc. have been shedding jobs. There are some startups and smaller firms, but from what I have seen, they pay poor to mediocre wages. Not even the builder boyz are doing all that great, as construction levels are a fraction of what they were during the previous bubble.

 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-06-08 07:41:40

Here we go again regarding land…..
Ben responded to my question yesterday as did HA and others.
What is driving the underlying value of land if demand for said land is falling? I suspect that land is now as perverted in price (not value) as is the stawk market - but then we have the Fed to thank for this circle jerking.

“Old Town is on pace for about 120 sales this year, ‘the second-lowest number since 2010,’ when Fort Collins was coming out of the recession, said Eric Thompson of Windermere Real Estate in Fort Collins. It’s really the land that’s appreciating as opposed to the physical structure, Thompson said. ‘What will happen in the future are more remodels and tear downs. The underlying land value will support more expensive physical structures.’”

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-06-08 07:48:54

Is it going the “meds and eds” route?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 08:41:14

“What is driving the underlying value of land”

There is nothing more speculative than dirt. That speculation results in massive price swings(losses) unfounded on fundamentals.

Remember…. there is a globe full of land and 95% of it goes undeveloped.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2015-06-08 09:06:16

Is it going the “meds and eds” route?

Meds? There is the usual cadre of healthcare providers and a Hospital.

Eds? CSU is in Ft. Collins. Due to TABOR state funding for CSU has been stagnant, so much so that CSU has been threatening to privatize, because as a state school there is a cap on how much they can raise tuition every year. So far nothing has come of that. I don’t believe enrollment has increased much at all and I haven’t seen any new major construction on the campus.

The Fort is kind of a mystery to me. It looks very prosperous, but the jobs aren’t there and it is a bit far for commuting to Denver, especially if you live on the more established west side of town, far from the Interstate. Perhaps there is more action with start ups and small employers than I am aware of.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2015-06-08 09:32:40

The bubble is always in the land. When you add up the materials and labor, you’re left having to place the majority of the “value” of the shanty in the dirt.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-06-08 10:08:37

“The bubble is always in the land. When you add up the materials and labor, you’re left having to place the majority of the “value” of the shanty in the dirt.”

Yup, but don’t forget fees in that cost equation.

I heard a saying once that building a house is simply a way to sell a parcel of land. That’s the truth.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 10:39:44

A $500 building permit doesn’t account for the additional $300k price overage Rental_Fraud.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 13:53:23

Colorado, I agree. Right now, Ft Collins sounds like the Pimmit Hills area in Northern Virginia — small ranches on 1/4 acre lots just begging to be McMansionized.

But NoVA prices are based on jobs, and jobs are based on the seemingly bottomless well of borrowed money. Those houses in Pimmit Hills are effectively being bankrolled by China and our great grandchildren. Who is bankrolling the houses in Fort Collins?

 
 
Comment by Dman
2015-06-08 15:22:37

If downtown Fort Collins were something special, that might explain some of the pricing. But its just an average college town in terms of restaurants and shopping. The nicest thing about Fort Collins is that it doesn’t take long to get out of town.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-06-08 10:00:00

this Bud’s for you !

smoke em if u got em

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 06:07:12

‘As the housing market continues to stabilize, a possible trend seems to be re-emerging, the demand to invest in subprime loans. “We are beginning to see the opening up of credit and I think that’s a trend that we’re going to begin to see,” said Brad Friedlander, head portfolio manager for Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income Fund, a Morningstar rated 5-star fund.’

Comment by Bad Andy
2015-06-08 10:58:14

Just spoke with a mortgage broker friend of mine. There are 2 sub-primes back in the market that he deals with. One will do 80% LTV while the other will go as high as 85%.

Just a matter of time before we go back to the way things were on the way back down.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 11:17:57

This was all part of the weekend topic. Lots of people forget how we got to the bottom of the barrel. It was incremental. I posted a mortgage outfit in San Diego talking about how “competitive” it was. The other day a Fort Worth UHS spoke about how appraisers were “helping” with closings. The Countrywide CEO once said that someone would bring a new “product” to market, and he was forced to do the same to maintain market share. Of course, what’s driving it is greed and the ever more comfortable notion that prices won’t fall. And as we saw recently, it’s the same freaking subprime guys doing it! Why not? No one went to jail. Moral hazard indeed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 11:43:11

‘Aug 14, 2014′

Stated income loans make comeback as mortgage lenders seek clients

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/us-usa-banks-loans-analysis-idUSKBN0GE09Z20140814

‘Mortgage applicants who can’t provide tax returns or pay stubs to show their income are getting stated income loans again as companies such as Unity West Lending and Westport Mortgage chase customers they can no longer afford to ignore.’

‘Lenders say these aren’t the same products as the so-called “liar loans” that were pervasive before the housing bust. Instead, the loans are going to borrowers such as small business owners or investors buying properties they intend to rent who can demonstrate an ability to repay, verifiable through bank or brokerage statements.’

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 11:49:57

‘Our residential stated loan program are for self-employed and wage earners. Borrowers might use a stated earnings program wherein the earnings specified on the application will not be verified by the lender. For self employed customers evidence of self-employment as well as confirmation of all property accounts is required. Evidence for self employment is normally a Certified Public Accountant letter. Whether you are self employed or are a wage earner, excellent credit (680 credit score or higher) is required to qualify for a stated income loan. We have other programs for borrower with lower credit scores but to get the best rates, a credit score of 720 or higher is preferred.’

‘Some stated loan programs do not require minimum asset reserves but for the best mortgage rates, verifiable liquid assets would be preferred and encouraged.’

http://www.custommortgageinc.com/stated-income-loans/home-mortgages/

‘Three Stated Income Loans Programs!
Up to 80% Stated Income Loans Nationwide!’

‘(see our no doc loan program for no income, no asset home loans or our Stated Income Loans for Apartments program) with low competitive conventional rates! Stated income loans available nationwide.

‘Foreign National allowed Case by Case
Trusts, LLC, Corporations, Non-Occupant Co-Borrower Allowed’

http://www.finance1online.com/stated-income-loans/#

 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 13:27:14

Ben, I’m seeing the same pattern. I have made the comment that in order to have a bubble, you need to loosen ALL the underwriting criteria, but in order to prevent or deflate a bubble, you only need to tighten up ONE of the criteria. In this case, the your link says it very succinctly:

Stated Income Loans have minimized income documentation and therefore have other methods of reducing the risk of the mortgage.

So, sure, this particular bank allow a mortgage on a no-doc, IF you put 20% down. So what if the buyer has no income and the loan goes bad… the bank will just take the 20% quick, sell the house quick at 10% under market, and still break even at worst. Hasn’t this been SOP for decades?

Almost every post-crash “subprime” loan offer I’ve seen on HBB has similar strings attached:

A bank will allow a loan on 0% down, IF you can prove a high income.
A bank will allow a loan on an ARM, IF you can prove you have the cash to cover a default/short sale.
A bank will allow a loan on a low income or low FICO, IF the PITI is fully amortized from Day 1, which will make a default show up very quickly so the bank can foreclose quickly.
A bank will allow almost any loan, IF the gov picks up the risk, e.g. a VA loan, or enough down payment assistance for 20% down.

Etc. In other words, the banks are keeping at least ONE safety net. It doesn’t matter which safety net it is, as long as there is at least one path for the bank to break even in the case of default. This is why I don’t call a bubble or a pop when I hear about subprime, or no-doc, or 0% down. The bubble doesn’t come from removing one safety net; it comes from removing ALL of the safety nets.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 13:39:37

All that doesn’t much matter when you’re lending an amount 300% greater than actual value of a depreciating asset.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 13:48:53

It was incremental.

That supports my point about needing to remove ALL of the safety nets. Each “increment” was removing the next safety net. Remove a safety net, suck in some buyers, hit a plateau. Remove another safety net, suck in more buyers, hit a plateau. The bubble STOPPED each time, and only started up again when they removed another net. If Fannie had kept even ONE net, say, price/income ratio, prices may have stabilized at 2003 levels.

But at the time, Fannie was private. So they chased profit, removed the last safety net, and scraped the bottom of the barrel until there was no bottom left. Prices bubbled, popped. HBB knew this would happen, but evidently nobody else did. So here we are. We eventually got back to the same 2004 prices through inflation, but caused lots of collateral damage along the way.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 13:56:16

“We eventually got back to the same 2004 prices through inflation,”

No Donk. We’re back here as a result of the very process you just described, not “inflation”.

*Learn* the difference.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 17:39:37

HA I like that you reply to my posts. Often I post something backed with some logic, and instead of being answered with a counterargument — you know, some real debate and insight — and sometimes all I get is *crickets*. But you’re always there for me. Thanks buddy. Have a Cheeto.

http://s829.photobucket.com/user/JanF-Kos/media/Objects/cheetos.jpg.html

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 17:46:45

Honestly, posts like these I can’t follow your “logic” because you have your own set of economic realities (and history). I could tell you what I think, but you wouldn’t like it, so I for one chose to stay quiet. We’ll find out about these loans soon enough. Then you can have your crow.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 19:38:14

Ben, well, I know, I’m just sort of thinking things through. Points to discuss… on a discussion blog, you know?

By the way, what history is there? When were ARM no-doc non-amortized loans offered to the general public? At what point in history was housing blown up while ONE check was still in place?

But let’s keep track of how these loans go. But to be honest, we may never see headlines on these loans going bad. That one check — be it income or assets or 20% equity or not being reset — will keep the loans above water. The homeowner will always have some path to sell. The bank will always have some path to not losing money — they made sure of that in advance. Buyers may lose a little but they will survive. Banks will survive. Since that makes for boring headlines, those loan failures may not even make the news.

Now, I can see some foreclosures caused by an EXTERNAL source, like the oil bust in Williston or a dot-com pop in San Francisco which kills jobs. But those foreclosures are due to job losses, not something baked into the loans.

Another thing too: as of now, the prices still have some support from cash-buyer investors. Sure, they got the “cash” by borrowing from somewhere else, but THOSE are the loans that will go bad. The mortgages won’t go bad, because there were no mortgages! The pop will be in bond rates, or company stock value, or something. Not the house prices. The houses are paid off.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 20:14:51

Comingling and exchanging what you want things to be with reality has already led to some tragic decisions you’ve made.

You paid a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset. That’s something you own. Nobody else.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 20:37:32

Subprime defaults at a historic rate of 14%, before the bubble. It’s only meant for VA, etc, cuz they are suckers and it’s good for politics. Subprime is inherently going to fail. And you should pick out your crow receipt. You wanted feedback.

 
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 21:17:48

Awesome Ben. So, what’s your definition of “subprime?” Are you using the low-FICO definition, or the non-amortized I/O ARM with-a-resets version? The news media stupidly used the terms interchangeably. Which type had 14% failure?

The current less-than-perfect loans are still requiring at least one safety net, unlike the bubble times. And anyway,after October 1, banks will have to retain 5% of any risky loan. I don’t think you’ll see ANY subprime loans then.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-09 04:09:03

Donk it really doesn’t matter. Prime, subprime etc all implode when financing massively inflated prices.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-06-08 15:31:41

Don’t forget the real fuel to the fire–the ratings agencies.

The Countrywides of the world were only able to make their loans because there was a ready, willing, and able capital source standing at the ready to buy the loans…if, of course, the securitized loan pools had the proper credit rating.

I’m not sure how we get anywhere close to the same volume of loans again without big money being involved…and if big money is involved, who is checking the underwriting? I think it’s too soon for large institutions to blindly buy large volumes of loans with a Moody’s AAA stamp.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2015-06-08 19:41:39

Yup, another safety net! Even if you got rid of every other safety net and gave out crap paper to dogs and mirrors and strawberry pickers, good ratings agencies would have called out the crap, and banks couldn’t sell what they originated. Banks would have made those loans for, like, 2 months and then stopped.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpers
2015-06-08 12:17:38

Smelly mell w day will do u do 3% yo

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 06:11:18

‘When will rents fall?’

‘June 2, 2015 Williston Herald’

It wasn’t that long ago that ND had the highest rents in the US. Things can change pretty quick, even in days.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 06:26:58

‘North Dakota built new housing at a faster clip than any other state from 2010 through last summer, as people flooded the state in search of work in the booming oil patch.’

‘The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest annual estimate shows North Dakota’s housing growth rate far outpaced any other state’s in the year leading up to last July 1, continuing a longer trend dating back to the last 10-year Census in 2010.’

‘Figures from Williston’s Building Department show that the annual value of building permits issued in the city increased eleven-fold between 2009 and 2014, from about $45 million to $500 million.’

‘The state overall has a healthy economy, and some families in the west also have moved east to escape the headaches associated with the oil boom, such as increased traffic and crime, according to Schneider.’

“The need for housing around the oil boom area also gave a lot of families the opportunity to sell their homes or property at a price much higher than in a normal market,” which created demand for housing in other parts of the state as the sellers moved, she said.’

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 06:14:58

‘The area has seen some interest from investors, said Brandon Ruscoe, an associate broker with Merced Yosemite Realty in Merced…‘When inventory is tight like that, they end up competing with investors,’ he said.’

So we’re back to this? New house investors in Merced. Here’s a letter to the editor:

‘I was driving by another new housing development going up in Clovis and saw a truck watering the dirt!’

‘Hello-o-o, we are in a drought. Why are we still building so many new homes when there is so little water?’

‘If there was a housing shortage, it would be different. There are hundreds of already existing houses for sale in Clovis. The value of those homes are being lowered because of the plethora of new developments and their “little down-move in” terms.’

‘Does Clovis realize how many of these homes go into foreclosure or pre-foreclosure due to these terms? Check out the statistics for the existing homes for sale. A lot are in foreclosure.’

‘Honestly, where do the boards of supervisors think all these people are coming from to warrant building new homes all over Fresno and Madera counties during our drought conditions?’

Jo Ann Castello, Clovis

Comment by cactus
2015-06-08 08:43:02

‘Honestly, where do the boards of supervisors think all these people are coming from to warrant building new homes all over Fresno and Madera counties during our drought conditions?’

Save water so they can build more homes. Many coastal cities use scare water as a way to stop developers from building homes but I guess Fresno doesn’t Give a $

Comment by redmondjp
2015-06-08 10:17:57

I spent two days in Sacramento last week on business, and have stayed at several different local hotels there over the past two years. NONE of the hotels I have stayed at even have low-flow showerheads or sink aerators installed.

I walked around the business park near my hotel in the evening. Sprinklers coming on, some with missing heads, with water running across the parking lots.

There is ZERO evidence of water conservation. They haven’t even picked the low-hanging fruit yet.

This is going to get very interesting . . . which reminds me: it’s time to watch Chinatown again!

Comment by Bluto
2015-06-08 10:36:29

FWIW Sacramento did not even have water meters until a few years ago, they are slowly being installed but the project may not be completed for another 10 years or so.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/city-beat/article11040677.html

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 11:05:38

There’s Jingle_Frauds $90k water meters.

Meanwhile, I just ordered three for temp connections. Price? $217 each.

http://www.tisales.com/download.php?file=http://www.tisales.com/assets/T10-Intermediate-ProdSheet-05.11.pdf

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 06:54:13

Here’s more doom and gloom Mike. Ignore these people as wall street would never lie to you:

‘As the stock market climbs ever higher, professional investors are warning that companies are presenting misleading versions of their results that ignore a wide variety of normal costs of running a business to make it seem like they’re doing better than they really are.’

‘What’s worse, the financial analysts who are supposed to fight corporate spin are often playing along. Instead of challenging the companies, they’re largely passing along the rosy numbers in reports recommending stocks to investors.’

‘It wasn’t supposed to be this way. After the dot-com crash of 2000, companies and analysts vowed to clean up their act and avoid highlighting alternative versions of earnings in a way that could mislead investors.’

‘But Lynn Turner, chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange Commission at the time, says companies are still touting “made-up, phony numbers” as much as they did 15 years ago, perhaps more, and few experts are calling them out on it.’

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-worry-phony-numbers-misleading-070222254.html

Comment by Bad Andy
2015-06-08 11:24:02

Nothing to see here Ben. Move along.

 
 
Comment by Dman
2015-06-08 07:06:18

I thought this article was about China at first.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 07:12:05

‘a 57-story luxury tower that will have a shark tank in the lobby. ‘We look around as real estate guys and say, ‘Jeez, who is our buyer?’ he said’

But you’ve got a shark tank. What more could a safe deposit box in the sky want?

Comment by snake charmer
2015-06-08 07:47:26

“‘We’ve seen a very strong shift in the last year in the dollar — it has literally pushed whole countries out of the marketplace,’ said Kevin Maloney, principal of Property Markets Group, which is developing Echo Brickell, a 57-story luxury tower that will have a shark tank in the lobby. ‘We look around as real estate guys and say, ‘Jeez, who is our buyer?’ he said. ‘Now you are going to allocate more of your dollars to domestic United States.’”
____________________________/

We’re broke you idiot. But I’m confident that reckless credit is going to step in, simply because we couldn’t make the right decision right now to save our lives.

A shark tank in the lobby of a building in one of the most hurricane-vulnerable cities in the United States sounds like the lead-in to another “Jaws” film. In the movie, the sharks would escape in a storm surge and proceed to eat Mr. Maloney. Why not put piranha in there too?

Comment by cactus
2015-06-08 08:45:37

you’re thinking of the critically acclaimed “Sharknado”

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-06-08 07:45:00

Dan, your reliance on that magazine is getting weaker by the day:

‘The Federal Reserve is increasing risk to the U.S. economy by putting off an interest rate increase, and it’s time to take away the punch bowl, former Fed Board of Governors member Lawrence Lindsey said Monday.’

‘U.S. markets have now entered a third bubble, Lindsey said, referring to the dotcom and housing bubbles of the late ’90s and mid-2000s. “It’s a lot of fun while the bubble is going up, and no one wants be accused of ending the party,” he said.’

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-needs-away-punch-bowl-135714043.html#

When you move out, get all the crow out of the fridge.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-06-08 07:51:17

“‘Everybody is looking at Miami and saying when is something bad going to happen?’ Rosso said. ‘And I say this is a different market. You’re not going to have a bubble burst.’”
__________________________/

Because somebody has to post this, from 2005:

Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors says that “South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.” He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-06-08 16:47:31

I remember that new economic model from the last time it blew up.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 08:47:24

Littleton, CO Housing Prices Fall 13%

http://www.movoto.com/littleton-co/market-trends/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 09:04:46

Fort Myers, FL Housing Prices Fall 22%

http://www.movoto.com/fort-myers-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-06-08 13:18:19

The house down the street from us is 500 sq ft bigger, and just sold (closed at) $525k. Our same floor plan down the street just listed at $500K and they’ll get close to that. No pool in the drought (a good thing) and no remodeled kitchen or baths.We paid $380K in 2012. We’re in a seasonal bubble in our area of So Ca. We could probably get $525K-$535K, but our accruals are $500/mo. You can’t rent a room for that. We’re staying put. So far, we’ve saved $75K in rent, so the improvement have already paid for themselves. Gotta pay to live somewhere!

This rigged market is the new reality. What a bummer for kids starting out. It sucks.

In 1998 we paid $400K for 4,000 sq ft, and we were making buckets of dough back then. (We miss those days.)This insanity of no relationship to income is scary.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-06-08 13:22:45

You overpaid $250k for a depreciating asset and then threw more money at it.

That’s your loss.

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-06-08 13:45:43

any data on Uhaul prices from Chicago to Denver and back?
This is an interesting metric and something that tells what is going on here in ILLANNOY!!!

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-migration-and-economic-crises-revealed-in-2014-u-haul-pricing/

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2015-06-08 14:28:46

Greetings from cloudy Tucson, AZ! (Hurricane Blanca’s breaking up over the western US. And she might cry all over us. You know how breakups are.)

What am I seeing here? A real estate market where the inventory is steadily creeping up.

But sales? Well, let’s just say that those happy overpricing days are here again. And local jobs and incomes still are where they were during the bubble years. As in, lackluster job and income growth.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2015-06-08 14:33:35

Which means that a lot of houses are just sitting there, with their “for sale” signs creaking in the wind.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-06-08 16:15:32

Az Slim,
Wow, how the heck are you?

We are going to Yuma AZ, to cross the border to Los Algodones for Dental Tourism. Using one of the firms.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2015-06-09 09:42:21

I’m doing just fine, inchbyinch. Coming through Tucson on your way to Yuma?

 
 
 
Comment by Aqius
2015-06-09 00:51:44

Still bicycling around town Slim?

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post