Bits Bucket for June 15, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
December 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Loved the 20 year aberration article
Which reminds me:
I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it
Thats right.
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?
Depends on region, price of the home, the cost of renting. It is ridiculous to make such blanket statements. Our improvements are now paid in full, after 2.5 years, using the monthly rental costs we were paying. We are now at the break even point using $2,300/mo rent. If we stay here 5 years (paid off on day 1) we’ll be in great shape. Even if we break even on the price plus improvements, our quality of life (by our terms) rocks and we’ve lived here for $500 month in accruals (ins & property tax). Pretty damn reasonable. You’ve gotta pay to live somewhere.
You nailed it. I’m in a crazy-high RE market right now (Redmond, WA) and am paying much less for my home than what it would cost to rent it (or any other 3BR house or apartment within 30 miles, for that matter). But I bought in 1998 before prices went skyward.
It is very tempting to sell right now, but my wife and I both have stable jobs here and the house is right between our two workplaces, so we are in an optimum location.
Buy/rent is an individual decision and it’s just silly to ridicule people for making either choice when it makes good financial sense for them. But as a homeowner for 17 years now I can say that it definitely does suck up a lot of your time to do home & yard maintenance (or your money, if you can afford somebody else to do it). For those who don’t want to spend that time/money doing repairs or yardwork, owning a condo/townhome or renting may be the best choice.
Plus, on paper, my house value has tripled since I have purchased it and it’s almost paid off, so in a few years, I will only be renting it from the county (as I like to say). YMMV
Your comparison is wrong, because you are ignoring the opportunity cost of capital tied up in your home.
and time spent working on the home vs playing.
time is $$
La fiesta ha terminado! This bubble, along with stocks, the dollar and the tech bubbles are about to Explotar!
Now is a great time to buy according to every realtor in North America.
sh@t will unexpectantly hit the fan soon. Panic before everyone else!
“Panic before everyone else!”
Panic just before everyone else! Don’t panic too soon else you may leave money on the table.
But don’t panic too late either else you definitely will leave money o the table.
Timing is everything: Send me $100 and I will disclose to you the exact moment.
The exact moment and, as a bonus, I will tell you the secret of how to get people to send to you money in the mail.
“Timing is everything: Send me $100 and I will disclose to you the exact moment.
Ain’t that the truth.
Along with all the housing insanity (the Fed, the banks, the “victims”, etc.) are the hordes of doomsayers wanting your money.
It’s worse now than Y2K.
“We’re doomed, I tells ya. Doomed! Send me your money and I’ll tells ya how and what’s to do abouts it. Don’t blame me if you don’t buy protection now.”
Scam artists far and wide these days.
Maybe I should get a horse and wagon - to sell miracle cures in small, brown bottles.
Better to cash out too early than too late. There’s not much upside left, but there’s a long way to fall.
“Better to cash out too early than too late.”
It is easier to board a lifeboat before the ship is listing.
“It is easier to board a lifeboat before the ship is listing.”
Yep. You don’t have to worry about competition from all the other passengers trying to leave the sinking ship at the same time you are trying to board the lifeboat.
In other words….. Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for years to come.
And then what, HA? How about each individual doing what the hell they want, as long as we’re not paying for it. Some folks have kids in school, a good cash flow from buying decades ago, etc,… I prefer not to live by Catastrophic Expectations.
We like our home and nobody can tell us their selling the joint.
“Some folks have kids in school, a good cash flow from buying decades ago, etc,…”
We’ve got kids in school for three more years, which is the perfect reason to keep renting in a good district where the rent prices in a school quality premium. After the last graduation, we can move to comparable housing in a crappy public school district for a lower price.
Outside the Box
Opinion: Don’t rush to dump stocks when interest rates rise
Published: June 15, 2015 6:01 a.m. ET
By John Coumarianos
Stocks are considered to be the best investments against inflation, and the rising interest rates associated with it, because companies can pass cost increases on to consumers, whose salaries presumably are also rising.
Yet while the inflation protection of stocks generally holds true in the long run, rising interest rates adversely affect stock prices at first.
Now that the Federal Reserve appears resolved to begin raising rates, possibly this year, investors should brace for stock volatility related to interest rate hikes, but hold stocks for inflation protection over the long haul.
Nobody knows when or how much the Fed will raise rates, of course. That’s why investors should prepare for pressure on stock prices in its wake. As Warren Buffett has said, interest rates act (on stock prices) as gravity behaves in the physical world.
But in his most recent Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, -0.59% BRK.B, -0.52%) shareholder letter, Buffett also wrote that stocks have provided protection against inflation for the past half-century and would likely do so over the next half-century.
The problem stock investors face now, given that interest rates have been so low for so long, is how to value the future.
…
Someone obviously paid this guy to convince the little guy to hold, while he and his ilk sell off first. Luckily the commenters called out his game immediately.
I know that HBB are housing bears, but housing is also considered a hedge against inflation… at least for the little guy in a primary residence. The reason is simple: rising interest rates and supposedly rising wages means rising rents. Renters get squeezed while the owner pays the same no matter what interest rates do. Over 10-15 years, that really adds up.
It doesn’t add up nearly as much as paying a 300% premium for a depreciating asset and then doubling down on that loss by financing it.
“I know that HBB are housing bears, but housing is also considered a hedge against inflation…”
Given that incomes have been and remain stagnant, housing is likely to go down with stocks and bonds when interest rates normalize.
Look out below!
http://kingworldnews.com/full-blown-panic-coming-as-this-historic-market-bubble-implodes/
Here’s another one…
The latest among tens of dozens during the past six weeks.
Eventually, they’ll be correct.
Most of the time, they’ll be wrong.
I wonder how many doomsayers have massive mortgages of their own.
Anyone here ever seen a study or correlations of number/frequency/loudness of doomsayers and the number of doomsayers up to their eyeballs in debt?
How many stopped clock implosion warnings does it take to create the “boy who cried ‘wolf’” scenario?
Unknown.
And if we’re smart, we’ll keep that unknown in mind, too.
Although little makes sense these days, keeping “your powder dry” also means keeping sane.
Succumbing to “the sky is falling” mentality is dangerous as well.
take your profits before the herd runs for the exits at once and there is no liquidity. In a rigged market the worst thing that can happen is a panic. I’m sure someone from the FED will be wheeled out to calm the crowd.
But don’t panics normally create great buying opportunities for folks with dry powder available? I know a guy who was able to retire thanks to timing the market in March 2009.
Bear, they do, but with equities, you should sell high, sit tight DURING the panic, and only wait to buy until after it’s over. You don’t want to invest in a dropping stock only to see it disappear altogether. (*ahem* pets dot com)
They say to buy when there’s blood in the streets. Yes, but when you see blood in the streets, don’t buy in the streets. Wait a couple days for the triage to shake out, wander over to the hospital, and buy the guys in “fair” condition.
Buy when the blood is being hosed off the streets?
“You don’t want to invest in a dropping stock only to see it disappear altogether.”
Just don’t buy individual stocks, and you won’t have to worry about this. Correlation increases drastically during a panic, so you can do better selling an index fund at the top and buying near the bottom w/o worrying about the disappearance problem.
“Buy when the blood is being hosed off the streets?”
Buy when the blood is in the streets but before it is hosed off with bailout liquidity.
In case you are unfamiliar with this cultural reference, the boy gets eaten by the wolf at the end of the story.
Frankly, I watch for complacency.
If everyone is crying out for the next disaster, there is apt to be less “throw caution to the wind” attitudes, and thus less likely to be a “blow off the top” ferver, and crash.
There is the legend of the shoeshine boy giving stock tips in the stock market ferver prior to the crash that led to the great depression.
During the dotcom, it was the “new paradigm” of companies that made money from eyeballs, not profits.
During the housing bubble it was a “permanently high plateau” of home prices.
So far, I’ve yet to see the same general level of complacency in this run-up. HOWEVER, I’m starting to hear commentary in certain markets that leads me to believe that complacency is becoming more significant in certain markets…the SF Bay Area is one.
And to be clear, I believe you can still have a broad correction/crash without the complacency. HOWEVER, I generally believe the magnitude of any correction/crash to be related to the level of complacency leading up to the correction/crash.
You like to tell stories Rental_Fraud. At least incorporate a bit of truth in them.
‘HOWEVER, I’m starting to hear commentary in certain markets that leads me to believe that complacency is becoming more significant in certain markets…the SF Bay Area is one.’
I suspect some kind of cargo cult mentality has taken over those markets.
“I suspect some kind of cargo cult mentality has taken over those markets.”
The trouble is, Benjamin Frum Bernanke gave the markets a good reason to expect cargo to drop from helicopters.
Jeb and Hillary should divorce their spouses and marry each other, become co-presidents, and run the country like Frank and Claire Underwood
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/us/politics/jeb-bush-presidential-campaign.html
Ran through the entire 30 for 30 series ESPN…
Returning now to the House….
Went back and watched the very first episode and saw something I had not see before - Mr. Underwood in that first episode got hosed by a latina he himself had supported financially allowing her to get into office and subsequently chief of staff. Underwood, slighted, decides to take revenge and the scheming starts. It was spoken so eloquently in the chauffered car near the end of the episode by Claire Underwood when she says “Frank, this is gonna be a big year for us!”
Lesson - never, ever slight a politician - it may cost you your life.
Drudge Report link says it’s “go time” in Cleveland
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GUNS_FIRED_POLICE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-14-21-19-32
Will be interesting to see what the Greek Kabuki theater does this week.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/15/ecb-press-release-this-wednesday-could-end-extortion-racket-over-greece-a-la-cyprus-2013/
Showdown at the EU Corral?
World Europe
EU-Greece Talks on Bailout Break Down, Setting Up Showdown
Greek Prime Minister Tsipras bets on securing better deal directly from eurozone leaders
Greek Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis rejected the commission’s claims that his government’s proposals had been incomplete.
Photo: Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg News
By Gabriele Steinhauser
Updated June 14, 2015 8:37 p.m. ET
BRUSSELS—Talks between Greece and its European creditors collapsed over the weekend, setting up a high-stakes showdown in which the country’s prime minister is gambling he can wrest a softer bailout deal directly from eurozone leaders.
The swiftness with which European officials dismissed the Greek government’s latest proposals on Sunday—calling them “vague and repetitive”—suggests Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is placing all of his bets on appealing for better terms to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the 17 other eurozone leaders at a Brussels summit on June 25. If he fails, a default on the country’s debt and a possible exit from the currency bloc loom.
Ahead of the summit and a big debt payment due on June 30, Mr. Tsipras also risks triggering a run on banks by panicked depositors and being forced to restrict withdrawals and transfers of euros within and out of Greece. That could quickly create a situation beyond Mr. Tsipras’s and the government’s control, officials from the country’s creditors fear.
After a flurry of meetings aimed at mending Greece’s moribund €245 billion ($275 billion) international bailout, the European Commission, which has been leading the negotiations, sent out a brief statement Sunday, saying the gap between the two sides over what spending cuts and other concessions Greece would have to make was still as high as €2 billion of budget revenues annually.
“There remains a significant gap between the plans of the Greek authorities and the [creditors’] requirements,” it said.
European stocks and the euro fell in early trading Monday in response to the news.
The breakdown in talks marked the end of a tumultuous week for Athens and its creditors, which include the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
On Monday, Greece sent new proposals on how to break an impasse that stepped away from budget targets its creditors thought it had already agreed. On Thursday, the IMF pulled out of the bailout talks, citing lack of progress. Later that day, senior officials from eurozone countries for the first time jointly discussed a “Plan B” to the negotiations—that no deal will be found and Greece defaults on June 30.
That is when the eurozone portion of the rescue program expires and the government faces a €1.54 billion payment to the IMF, which it won’t be able to make without a new bailout transfer.
…
When bailouts are in doubt, point the finger of blame for your own problems at others!
ft dot com
Last updated: June 15, 2015 6:20 pm
Defiant Tsipras accuses creditors of ‘pillaging’ Greece
Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Kerin Hope in Athens
Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, vowed not to give in to demands made by his country’s international creditors, accusing them of “pillaging” Greece for the past five years and insisting it was now up to them to propose a new rescue plan to save Athens from bankruptcy.
Mr Tsipras’ remarks came less than 24 hours after the collapse of last-ditch talks aimed at reaching agreement on the release of €7.2bn in desperately needed rescue funds. The comments were part of a chorus of defiance in Athens that left many senior EU officials convinced they can no longer clinch a deal with Greece to prevent it from crashing out of the eurozone.
Without a deal to release the final tranche of Greece’s current bailout, Athens is likely to default on a €1.5bn loan repayment due to be paid to the International Monetary Fund in two weeks, an event officials fear would set off a financial chain reaction from which Greece would be unable to recover.
“One can only suspect political motives behind the fact that [bailout negotiators] insist on further pension cuts, despite five years of pillaging,” Mr Tsipras said in a statement. “We are carrying our people’s dignity as well as the aspirations of all Europeans. We cannot ignore this responsibility. It is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. It has to do with democracy.”
Reflecting the growing fears of a Greek default, Günther Oettinger, Germany’s European commissioner, called for an “emergency plan, a ‘Plan B’” in case Athens failed to reach a deal, saying this would lead to “a state of emergency” in Greece, including difficulties paying for energy, police services and medicines.
The growing signs of breakdown sent the Athens stock exchange down nearly 5 per cent and borrowing costs on Greek bonds sharply higher. The jitters appeared to spread to other peripheral eurozone bonds as well, with sell-offs in benchmark Italian, Spanish and Portuguese debt.
Meanwhile, in a further sign of the increasing tension across Europe, the continent’s biggest investment group Aberdeen Asset Management said it had arranged about $500m in credit lines to fund redemptions as a precaution against a sell-off in the bond markets. Martin Gilbert, chief executive, said the group needed to “be prepared if it gets ugly”. He said two of the main risks are Greece leaving the single currency and an increase in US interest rates.
Q&A: a third way for Greece in the form of a parallel currency
A Greek and an EU flag wave in front of the ancient temple of Parthenon atop the Acropolis hill in Athens
Some economists wonder whether a third way is possible for Greece: creating a parallel currency that lets Athens remain in the monetary union without having to raise taxes and cut spending to settle its bills.
Despite Mr Tsipras’ insistence that he was now awaiting a new proposal from Greece’s three bailout monitors — the IMF, European Central Bank and European Commission — senior EU officials made clear they were not prepared to budge from a compromise plan presented two weeks ago to Mr Tsipras by Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president.
“While all actors will now need to go the extra mile, the ball lies squarely in the camp of the Greek government to take the next steps,” said Mario Draghi, ECB president.
…
“He said two of the main risks are Greece leaving the single currency and an increase in US interest rates.”
Between a rock and a hard place.
Greece crisis: Athens poised on the verge of catastrophic debt default as bailout talks collapse
The country could become the first to crash out of the Euro
Ben Chu
Economics Editor
Tuesday 16 June 2015
The world’s financial markets are facing up to the possibility that Greece could soon become the first country to crash out of Europe’s single currency. Talks between Athens and its eurozone creditors have collapsed in acrimony just days before a final deadline for Greece to unlock the €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in bailout funds it needs to avoid a catastrophic debt default.
The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, accused the creditor powers of hidden “political motives” in their demands that Greece make further cuts to public pension payments in return for the financial aid. “We are shouldering the dignity of our people, as well as the hopes of the people of Europe,” Mr Tsipras said in a defiant statement. “We cannot ignore this responsibility. This is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. This is about democracy.”
Günther Oettinger, a European Commissioner and member of the German Chancellor’s ruling Christian Demorcrat party, hit back –suggesting Greece could soon be designated an “emergency area” if it fails to pay its debts later this month.
…
So do the Democrats have Obama fatigue and is this the point in time when Obama truly goes lame duck? After all, Obama doesn’t have to worry about election or re-election.
Seems to me, on both trade and immigration, he has more allies in the Republican party.
A bi-partisan president!
Totally predictable. Why?
NeoCons = Progressives.
DINO = RINO
And I agree with this, and I think it’s coming to a head. At some point these DINOs and RINOs are going to join in some kind of moderate party and take over. Sorry Ray Hessel, but I don’t think these moderates will survive as a third party. Since our election system doesn’t allow for a runoff, we’re stuck with two party.
Instead, I think the RINO/DINO will take over one party and will have either:
RINO/DINO take over Republicans and the lefties/greenies/socialists become the Democrats.
RINO/DINO take over the Democrats and the righties/racists/tea party become the Republicans.
So far, the moderates have gone toward to Dems. It will be interesting to see how the landscape looks in ~15 years. I suspect it will shift again, as we lose boomers and the millenials start voting en masse.
EU periphery bond yields headed higher. Uh-oh…if contagion spreads to Italy and Spain, which were never really “fixed” and are too big to be bailed out, unlike Greece and Portugal, it’s Katie bar the door time.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMBMKES-10Y?countrycode=BX
Can someone explain this fascination people have with “Game of Thrones”?
Have never watched it. I read the episode summary occasionally on HuffPost, and it just sounds idiotic. A cross between a soap opera and an eight year old’s fairy tale.
God, I’m getting old……..
Here’s your question:
“Can someone explain this fascination people have with ‘Game of Thrones’?”
And here’s your answer:
“A cross between a soap opera and an eight year old’s fairy tale.”
I read all of the books. Long winded but well written. If you ever liked Lord of the Rings type books, you would enjoy them.
The show is not following the books.
You find it hard to believe that the dolts who voted overwhelmingly for Obama, McCain, and Romney would be entertained and distracted by a mindless tee fee series?
My wife and I watched the breaking bad series recently. It was very entertaining.
This game of thrones seems like it may be hard to follow. Anymore than 3 or 4 plot lines and I get confused.
I think I would have been confused if I hadn’t read the books.
Loved breaking bad.
I envy those who are just starting to watch Breaking Bad, soooo good. Better Call Saul’s first season was also good.
If anyone hasn’t seen Fargo (TV, not the movie, which was also great) they should.
Game of Thrones is confusing, especially if you only half-watch it, as I do. I don’t care enough to really remember the characters; if I’m confused about who’s who or what happened, I look it up. Saves time.
In a word - boredom.
I got into the show at around Season 3. Went back and binged watched from the beginning to get caught up and still watch it today. Here’s my 2 cents…
Its political infighting, warfare, revenge, extreme violence, extreme sex, all set in a realistic medievel Europe type world, minus the dragons and the undead. It really is as if you mixed Lord of the Rings with House of Cards. It is THAT political. You naysayers are missing out, its a great show. I’ve always imagined Hillary Clinton as the evil queen Cersei, but that’s just me.
“Valar Morghulis” (All men must die)
Only Cersei is absolutely beautiful, and Hillary is so not.
Hillary is so
nothot.Agreed, it was a comparison of the evilness rather than beauty.
lol! If you like reading alternative history books, you’d like the GOT saga. It’s great engineering reading: detailed, finely drawn out, goes from conceptual design to production smoothly.
The TV series pales by comparison. Watched first three episodes, gritting teeth at the wasted time, just to give it a fair shake.
Net, IMHO you’d like the books better. But if you’re not feelin’ it after the first 100 pgs of the first book in the series, it ain’t for you. I.e., get it from the libe!
Article titled “The Iran ISIS Connection” rallies the base
http://m.weeklystandard.com/articles/iran-isis-connection_969590.html
No “smaller government” or “lower taxes” happening here, LOLZ
Jebbu vs. Billary
If those two are what we have to choose between, I’ll probably eat my gun
The mere thought of Hillary becoming president (small “p” is intentional) makes me want to puke.
DailyKos (liberal website) hasn’t made any official endorsements, but the enthusiastic ones are slobbering over Bernie Sanders.
Meanwhile Hillary is putting off the big rallies and is concentrating on those quiet kitchen table meetings. My guess is that she’s going to wait for the rest of the field — who? — to peak too soon. When they self-destruct or run out of money, she can sneak up to snatch the nom. That’s how it worked out for Romney.
Politico reporting Bernie Sanders polling at 32% in New Hampshire
really, how bad can Bernie be? He’d ease out of the global imperialism. Since he’s a populist, he’d push programs to put the vets to work. Maybe on borders, maybe on cleaning up Baltimore and its ilk.
It would result in a net decrease in US indebtedness.
I wouldn’t vote for her solely based on her logo.
Sign you are a scumbag “outsourcing expert”
All of your LinkedIn endorcements are guys from India.
Heh, I read a thread in another forum about American tech workers being contacted via Linked In by Indian “recruiters”. One guy kept a police whistle by the phone and blew it into the mouthpiece every time he was contacted by one of those guys.
Another guy amused himself by leading on a couple of the recruiters as far as he could, acting all dumb and sincere and anxious to get a gig.
Heh, I read a thread in another forum about American tech workers being contacted via Linked In by Indian “recruiters”.
I’ve been contacted by a few.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-15/grexit-contagion-uncontained-peripheral-bond-risk-surges-greek-banks-collapse
Despite weeks of reassurances and repetitions that Grexit is “contained” - it’s not! Bond spreads for Portugal, Italy, and Spain are blowing out (now up 35-50bps in the last 2 days). While Draghi desperatly soaks up selling pressure, Spanish bond yields have surpassed US yields for the first time since October. But while bonds are turmoiling (Bunds/TSYS -5-7bps, everything else ugly), the real carnage is in Greece. Greek bank bonds are pushing to new record lows and the broad ASE is down over 13% from last week’s exuberant surge when Greece was fixed again (based on a Reuters headline rumor).
“Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We’re so glad you could attend
Come inside! Come inside!”
Read more: Emerson, Lake & Palmer - Karn Evil 9 Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Seriously, I’m sick to death of Greece vs the Eurozone, Germany, WHATEVER! They’re sick pups on both sides with a vested interest in keeping this going ad nauseum. IGNORE.
Of course Greece is going to default. This song & dance is just a buffer to give time for the big boys to clean their books of Greek debt before the plate throwing starts.
It’s a Big Fat Mormon Divorce. There are half a dozen towering debt donkey wives waiting in the queue behind Greece to see what the terms are going to be for them.
That’s awesome!
Look at this:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/461-Tinker-Mountain-Dr-Daleville-VA-24083/111691487_zpid/?z&utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=emo-inferredsearch-address
Why buy a million dollar ranch in california when you can saddle up next to the blue ridge at these prices and not suffer earthquakes and droughts?
Not worth $237K. Sure, you get a 1/2 acre, and the place is cleaned up. But it’s a plain-jane ranch house, and it has a “double wide” feel about it (all carpet). I guess it would work out if you had a good job in Roanoke (Virginia Tech), but that’s about it. If you want rural there are better places; if you want artsy college town, VaTech isn’t known an artsy scene.
How about saddling up the Appalachians from the other side? Check out this beauty. Holy stereotype batman. No, that’s not a stove on the front porch, just a grill.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Zanesville-OH/fsba_lt/house_type/2102051879_zpid/28066_rid/0-300000_price/0-1136_mp/1_pnd/zesta_sort/40.141353,-81.711159,39.764478,-82.257729_rect/10_zm/0_mmm/
“No, that’s not a stove on the front porch, just a grill.”
That place really needs a camouflage paint job.
‘ No, that’s not a stove on the front porch, just a grill.’
That place has both country and western.
Why buy a million dollar ranch in california when you can saddle up next to the blue ridge at these prices and not suffer earthquakes and droughts?
As an ex Californian I can tell you why: mild winters (no snow), low humidity and almost no flying bugs (though those pesky Argentinian ants are everywhere)
You know a place that reliably has no snow, low humidity, and few flying bugs? A desert.
So if they like it that way, Californians can just stay put. But if they want big green trees and grassy yards, to quote Sam Kinison, they need to “get out of the desert”!
There is a difference. Summers “in the desert” (say Phoenix or Tuscon) are 100F+ affairs. That is not the case in coastal California. There is a reason why so many people moved there. Unfortunately, too many people have moved there.
Agreed, but I wasn’t telling them to move to Phoenix, I was telling them to stay put, and get used to a browner environment. If all they want is low humidity, no snow, and few bugs, they’ll be fine. If they want trees, grass, and fountains, they need to call u-haul.
“If they want trees, grass, and fountains, they need to call u-haul.”
Don’t forget to add water to that list.
What I’m saying is that Coastal California isn’t “desert”. Yes, it’s arid. Combine that with a monster drought and 20 million too many people and you will get a problem.
Also, FWIW, there are plenty of drought resistant trees in coastal California. You make the place sound like a barren wasteland. It isn’t the Mohave or Sonora deserts. Have you ever lived there?
“Coastal California isn’t “desert””
Not yet, but what happens when an arid place gets even drier?
Not yet, but what happens when an arid place gets even drier?
That depends on how long the drought lasts and how much water is diverted from agriculture to the cities, and if push comes to shove, it will be diverted.
California, in particular near the coasts, is a cultural wasteland and poverty stricken.
“and if push comes to shove, it will be diverted”
I agree, but it won’t be diverted to grow big green trees and grassy lawns.
I agree, but it won’t be diverted to grow big green trees
We had some Eucalyptus trees in San Diego. Never had to water them. We also had a slope next to the house, which we covered with “ice plant”. That stuff grew like a weed, never had to water it either. Water has always been expensive, so east coast style sprawling emerald lawns were never the norm. A lot people Xeriscape and have done so for a very long time.
Have you ever been to Southern California?
I have visited Southern California quite often, and found it surprisingly green, with plenty of green grassy yards and big deciduous trees, especially in the nicer areas. It is far more green than most areas around the Mediterranean, which is the type of climate it is purported to be. (Ever been there?)
And far, far greener than the desert to which it is becoming/returning.
And far, far greener than the desert to which it is becoming/returning.’
Not a desert. I lived in Phoenix that was a desert. More of a air conditioned semi desert.
You have to be near the coast to get the best effect.
Lots of grass is going brown now. Even my mow happy neighbor has let his back yard grass go.
Brown and california are synonymous. A big turd.
“Not yet, but what happens when an arid place gets even drier?”
More desalinization of nearby ocean water?
Yep, snow, bugs and humidity are not for everyone. I keep an eye on some of the southeast towns to see how price discovery is going down there. Here is a question for you. How does Colorado Springs far as housing costs go? You don’t hear much about the city as a big draw vs. Denver and for that reason I wonder if it is a sleeper bargain city for transplants who want to be in CO and have access to city amenities and the mountains,etc. but do not want to pay Denver prices.
I might move there in a few years. Housing is less, and jobs pay less. More conservative than Denver. Big military presence. You ski at Monarch or drive up and over Hoosier Pass to ski at Breckenridge (not in I-70 traffic).
Denver was nice while it lasted, but it’s over now.
Springs seems like a nice place. Bigger than Loveland/Ft. Collins, but still much smaller than Denver. If you live on the north side of town I guess you could commute to jobs in the Denver Tech Center, though the drive through Monument can be a drag if it snows.
And it does feel a lot more conservative, definitely Fundytown.
Now if you really want cheap, drive south to Pueblo. But make sure you have a job where you can telecommute.
Or Walsenburg or maybe Tinidad.
“Denver was nice while it lasted, but it’s over now.”
Denver was over years ago; it’s Boulder if you have the moola.
Mork and Mindy ruined Denver.
Why is Mr Market so glum today?
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks dive; Dow sees triple-digit slide
Published: June 15, 2015 10:09 a.m. ET
Manufacturing data in June disappoints; Home-builder confidence rises
Reuters
Greece presents fresh worries for stocks.
By Anora Mahmudova, Reporter, &
Barbara Kollmeyer, Markets reporter
U.S. stocks began the week on a downbeat note Monday with indexes seeing sharp declines following a breakdown in Greece talks and weak economic data.
The S&P 500 declined about 17 points, or 8%, to 2,076. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 200 points in early trade, but pared losses slight to down 167 points lower, or 0.9%, to 17,733, The Nasdaq Composite was down 52 points, or 1%, to 4,998.
A New York-area manufacturing survey came in well below expectations, with the index dropping to a negative 2.0 in June, while economists polled by MarketWatch expected a reading of 5.7. Industrial production in May also dipped.
Earlier, stock futures followed European equities lower earlier as talks between Greece and its international creditors collapsed over the weekend, reigniting fears that Greece may default on its debts and potentially exit the eurozone.
Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, talked of three major issues that potentially can result in a market correction of 5%-10% over the summer.
“We were disappointed to see negative readings in manufacturing data after seeing improvements in economic reports over the past several weeks. But our analysts points to a better second half of the year and will support markets,” Orlando said.
“But in the near term, markets are very much driven by news in Greece, the Federal Reserve policy setting meeting this week and potential collapse of Iranian nuclear negotiations. These three issues together could result in an air pocket this summer,” Orlando warned.
…
per ZH, from a link posted in HBB last week, Deutsche has a large position in Greek bonds. Deutsche also has (per zh) over $150T in derivative bets that won’t be going in its favor.
Deutsche going down will have ripple effects, and it’s arguable whether Angela M. will be able to rally the troops to bail Deutsche after bailing Greece.
At least that was my read.
What is the difference between a “technical recession” and a “recession”?
For example, following the rules of logic, is a “technical recession” also a “recession”?
Economic Report
U.S. manufacturing sector said to be in a technical recession
Published: June 15, 2015 10:33 a.m. ET
By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
Bloomberg
Production assembly mechanic at General Electric Co.’s GE Aviation factory in Cincinnati, Ohio.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. factory sector, ailing from the strong dollar, global weakness and lower oil prices, has slipped into a technical recession, new data released Monday show.
The Federal Reserve said Monday that industrial production dropped unexpectedly in May and hasn’t increased since November.
The six-month drop in output, adjusted for inflation, puts the sector in a technical recession, said Alan Tonelson, a former economist for a manufacturing trade group who now writes commentary on the sector.
Industrial output sank 0.2% in May. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0.2% gain.
Compared to 12 months ago, industrial production was up 1.4% — compared to 4.8% growth was recently as November.
…
Technically, yes.
I’m thinking since the government is involved in defining what is and isn’t a recession, the standard rules of logic and grammar may not apply.
New Fed Figures Show Manufacturing in Technical Recession
By Alan Tonelson
June 15, 2015 12:49PM
Today’s Federal Reserve’s industrial production release showed that American manufacturing has entered a technical recession, as real output is now down cumulatively since November. This slump is industry’s first since the Great Recession’s end, and includes both the durable and non-durable goods super-sectors, as well as an automotive complex that had been domestic manufacturing’s recovery leader. Despite continued talk of a domestic manufacturing renaissance, industry’s after-inflation production is now only 2.23 percent higher than its pre-recession peak more than seven years ago.
…
Jun 09, 2015
Canada flirting with a ‘technical’ recession
Waterloo Region Record
By Jock Finlayson
There is a cloud over the country’s economic outlook for 2015.
Statistics Canada reports that real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 0.6 per cent annualized rate in the first three months of the year, considerably worse than even pessimistic forecasters were expecting. It is clear that the slump in global oil prices is taking a measurable toll on Canada’s energy-centric economy.
Non-residential investment plunged by 15 per cent in January, February and March, led by sharp cuts in capital-spending by the oil and gas industry. In recent years, the energy sector has accounted for more than one-third of all non-residential investment, as well as for roughly one-quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports. So the downturn in oil and natural gas markets is dampening overall private sector capital outlays and weighing heavily on Canada’s export receipts.
Harsh winter weather also played a role in the gloomy first-quarter report. Consumer spending came in below expectations, as many Canadians apparently decided to stay indoors.
Economists define a “recession” as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP. We are half way there, and some recent economic data signal further softness in April, May and June.
The U.S. economy has also disappointed. Real GDP contracted by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter (bad winter weather and a West Coast port strike contributed to this outcome), and the growth rate for the last quarter of 2014 was revised down. Most forecasters are reasonably positive about the U.S.’s economic prospects over the balance of this year, but the surprisingly downbeat first-quarter data does not inspire confidence.
The oil price collapse has by no means run its course, with Canadian producers likely to announce more large-scale spending cuts and layoffs in the coming months. Ongoing pain in the energy sector will hurt many other industries, as well as the large numbers of Canadian households that have come to depend, directly or indirectly, on a robust oil and gas industry.
The Canadian labour market has also clearly lost steam, buffeted by job losses in eight of the last 17 months. Employment growth is running at less than one per cent on an annual basis, well behind the U.S.
Finally, Canada has seen a significant deterioration in its trade and current account deficits amid plummeting oil prices and soggy markets for other commodities, like natural gas, coal and base metals. The current account deficit widened dramatically in the first quarter, reaching a near-record level of almost $18 billion. And the merchandise trade deficit for the month of April was the second biggest on record.
…
The Sequel?
Economist Cummins: Fed Risks Repeating ‘Its Biggest Mistake of Past Decade’
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/housing-bubble-federal-reserve-mistake/2015/06/12/id/650314/
The Federal Reserve has pledged to continue moving very slowly in raising short-term interest rates, which have stood at a record low for more than six years.
Unfortunately, that stance threatens to ignite the second real estate bubble in a decade, says Jason Cummins, chief U.S. economist for European hedge fund titan Brevan Howard.
“The risk [is] that the Federal Reserve will repeat its biggest mistake of the past decade,” he writes in the Financial Times.
U.S housing prices are rising 7 percent a year, averaging just 10 percent less than their peak level of 2006, Cummins notes.
“There are good macroeconomic reasons to stimulate aggregate demand through an interest-rate sensitive sector like housing,” Cummins maintains. The economy contracted 0.7 percent in the first quarter.
“However, such a strategy is not without risks,” he says. ”
….But former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is more worried about weakness in the housing sector.
Good morning Lola.
“Unfortunately, that stance threatens to ignite the second real estate bubble in a decade, says Jason Cummins, chief U.S. economist for European hedge fund titan Brevan Howard.”
Why do ‘experts’ so often predict things that have already happened?
It didn’t and doesn’t work. (But we’re still going to hear that it does in the face of reality.)
Opinion: What can we learn from Kansas?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-can-we-learn-from-kansas-2015-06-10
Middle class is paying for that big wager on trickle-down economics
Three years ago, Kansas’ conservative government — led by Republican Gov. Sam Brownback — made a bet: cut taxes on the wealthy, and the economy will grow enough to make up for the lost revenue. Spoiler alert: it hasn’t worked out — as I write this, the Legislature is frantically trying to close a $350 million budget hole — but the policy has failed in an informative direction.
There are two clear takeaways: first, supply-side economics didn’t even work with the deck stacked in its favor, and second, we’re seeing what happens when supply-side tax cuts on the rich fail to produce badly needed revenue. The end result is that the wealthy get to keep their tax cuts and everyone else gets to close the gap.
…..The overall effect of the tax changes is pretty clear. Wealthy Kansans got a tax cut that blew up the budget, then the rest of the state got tax increases to help fill the hole. The state also cut funding for schools and higher education, among other public needs, possibly by so much it violates the state constitution.
The end result of Kansas’ supply-side experiment for family budgets in the state looks to be so bad it’s being mocked by comic strips. It may be little consolation to the working families who will end up holding the bag, but the Kansas experiment carries useful lessons for American policy makers. Tax cuts for the rich don’t pay for tax cuts, tax increases on the rest of us do. Of course, if you’re up-to-date on economic research, you already knew this.
News flash — even if those big business had NO regulations and paid NO taxes, they would still outsource to China and/or India. Their whining about crushing taxes and regulations is just the next cost corner to cut to keep the stockholders happy… for a little while.
China and a Trillion dollars of IPOs this week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/12/markets-china-stocks-close-idUSZZN2RH40020150612
You’re right Lola. Price fixing and bottlenecking never works. Unless the goal is collapsing demand.
The overall effect of the tax changes is pretty clear. Wealthy Kansans got a tax cut that blew up the budget, then the rest of the state got tax increases to help fill the hole.
Privatize the gains, socialize the costs.
Now get back to work, peons. You have new taxes to pay.
… And the liberals did this to you.
Wrong. Solid Republican majorities in both chambers
The few Democrats remaining are taking the “You effed it up, you fix it” attitude. As they aren’t needed to pass anything, why muddy the water by giving the Repubtards someone to blame during the next election?
So they passed a sales and cigarette tax increase on the wretched refuse, and left the tax cuts for the 1%ers from 2012 as-is.
And they really want to express their appreciation, as the fly to Cali/NYC/Vail/Aspen/Jackson Hole/Canada to spend their windfall.
“they passed” = Republicans
Get free services and pay no taxes. It’s getting hard to tell the FSA players without a program.
When people vote to do this to themselves they aren’t citizens anymore, they’re peasants, toiling away in the fields while the master reads them Bible passages from the manor.
I could see this being really tempting for Lucky Duckies. They’re already poor, “toiling for the master”. If a couple could get 200K for their citizenships they could buy a small house in flyover and have money left over. Or pizz it away.
Bernie Sanders tells it like it is, no holds barred. This is why he’s drawing crowds. Watch the clip:
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/bernie-sanders-corporate-america-must-start-investing-in-the-u-s/
He cuts like a laser thru the B.S. You want to break the stranglehold the 1% and paid-for government has on America? Bernie is the man.
He must know he has no chance in getting the nom nod. Is he out there to get the issues talked about? Just a hunch.
Sure, that was probably his original intent, to force HRC to move left. But if he continues to poll well he might begin to think he has a shot. I remember when Obama polled at 10% at about this stage and he was viewed as a no-chance candidate as well. If memory serves same thing happened with Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.
The world economy
Watch out
It is only a matter of time before the next recession strikes. The rich world is not ready
Jun 13th 2015 | From the print edition
Timekeeper
THE struggle has been long and arduous. But gazing across the battered economies of the rich world it is time to declare that the fight against financial chaos and deflation is won. In 2015, the IMF says, for the first time since 2007 every advanced economy will expand. Rich-world growth should exceed 2% for the first time since 2010 and America’s central bank is likely to raise its rock-bottom interest rates.
However, the global economy still faces all manner of hazards, from the Greek debt saga to China’s shaky markets. Few economies have ever gone as long as a decade without tipping into recession—America’s started growing in 2009. Sod’s law decrees that, sooner or later, policymakers will face another downturn. The danger is that, having used up their arsenal, governments and central banks will not have the ammunition to fight the next recession.
…
September/October will be interesting.
“Montana Republican: Noah was 600 years old when he built the Ark, so why do Americans need retirement?” He says Noah didn’t have a pension or Soc Sec., and there’s no Biblical support for “retirement.”
It’s a logical extension of the free market “trickle down” philosophy. Work for low wages until you’re dead. It’s your Biblical duty, and your Patriotic duty, to do so.
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/06/montana-republican-noah-was-600-years-old-when-he-build-the-ark-so-why-do-americans-need-retirement/
He isn’t just against SS or pensions; he’s against “savings plans” too. I guess we aren’t supposed to save for our old age either, just work until we drop.
If you spend all your wealth, then you will have no choice but to go into debt in order to spend more, which should work out very well for the lenders who loan you the money.
Are politicians really this dumb, or is this just a way to get stupid people’s votes?
What strikes me as odd is that the Rocky Mountain West isn’t Fundyland like the Bible Belt is (with the exception of Utah, and they have their own flavor anyway). Talking about a 600 year old Noah who never retires would strike me as a great way to get labelled as a crackpot by the electorate.
A quick look at wikipedia shows that only 47% of Montanans are Protestant and that only about 27,000 of them are Evangs or Fundies, who are far outnumbered (4x) by those with no religious affiliation at all.
I suspect that his words were only meant for the consumption of the Bible College faculty and student body. I wouldn’t be surprised if he also sells the concept of “no retirement” to non-fundy ranchers, appealing to their work ethic and self reliance.
Someone should have him show the paper work where he renounces his right to a goverment pension.
Boaters don’t retire, they just cruise away.
The idea may be that a presidential campaign is a good forum to talk about issues and get some activism going. Unfortunately, if you look as the campaigns of Ralph Nader and Dennis Kucinich, I don’t think that have much effect.
Oh crap, another pilot writing a book about the glory and majesty of flight……
http://tinyurl.com/oyz9244
Yeah, it’s real easy to fall in love with flying when you get paid gazillions a year to fly 747s.
B747 Top Speed = .88 mach
Cessna 750 (Citation X) = .92-3 Mach
Suck it, airline bitchez, as we fly faster and higher
I worked at Cessna at the time the C-750 was being certified, and my department and crew was peripherally involved in the test flying/certification. Test pilots would come back and mention how much the 747 guys REALLY HATED being smoked by the 750.
Another guy I know told me his boss bought one after he saw one CLIMBING faster than he was cruising.
Another demo left TEB (Teterboro) westbound at 8:00am EST. Landed in LA around 9:00am local, topped the fuel, and was back at TEB by 4:00pm Eastern.
Or…….Wichita to London in 8 hours even (including a fuel stop in Gander, Newfoundland)
“The world really goes by the window fast in this airplane……”
When do company valuations matter?
Seems folks are buying stocks of companies that are grossly overvalued but they keep getting away with it.
I guess when I buy something I look for value.
It appears folks are back to speculating on future price movements.
The monte carlo market has been working for a long time.
And I want it to keep working so I can keep divesting my company stock.
Big money, big money, no whammies!
“When do company valuations matter?”
When and if interest rates normalize…
HomeDebtor——Debt-saddled and anti-depressant addled, empty pocketed and pissed off.
http://goo.gl/SNQrll
I know many like this. Some don’t even realize the rage is on their doorstep.
The NEW dictionary
By Call it Crazy
Mon, 15 Jun 2015,
patrick.net/misc/The+NEW+dictionary - 13k -
I type ‘r’ in Google and Rachel Dolezal is the default entry. This is just too Onion-y.
San Diego, CA Housing Prices Fall 9%
http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92104/home-values/
FEAR OF MISSING OUT ?
You have nothing to fear but losses on that shanty Poet. Like millions of others.
I want to help u turn it all around.
Data Poet….. data.
Denver, CO Housing Prices Fall 11%
http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/
Turns out race riots are bad for bidness. Who’d've thunk?
Business
In Ferguson, Mo., a Long Road Getting Back to Business
Ten months after the Michael Brown shooting, small businesses in Ferguson, Mo., are still working to return to normal.
Photo: Catalin Abagiu for The Wall Street Journal
By Ruth Simon, Ben Kesling and Leslie Josephs
June 14, 2015 10:38 p.m. ET
FERGUSON, Mo.—Idowu Ajibola, 57, opened a pharmacy in this area eight years ago, tapping savings, family money and funds from his retirement plan. He added a beauty-supply business to the premises in 2008.
Mr. Ajibola’s fortunes changed last year after the shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed black 18-year-old, by a white police officer. During a period of widespread unrest, looters cleaned him out of high-price items, such as packages of hair extensions that sold for around $200 each. Mr. Ajibola estimates the rioting cost him $50,000 in stolen or destroyed merchandise; another $50,000 in fixtures were ruined.
“I lost quite a few customers,” said Mr. Ajibola. “People wouldn’t come in. It was a bad situation.”
Ten months after Mr. Brown’s death, businesses are still struggling to rebound in this suburb of St. Louis whose population of 21,000 is two-thirds African-American and has a median household income of less than $40,000.
With sales and traffic down on West Florissant Avenue, the Ferguson area that bore the brunt of looting and vandalism, Mr. Ajibola, who emigrated from Western Nigeria more than 30 years ago, decided to convert his wrecked beauty-supply shop into a dollar store. The new place sells items such as coffee mugs and kitchen supplies—goods less likely to attract shoplifters or looters.
Nearly half of the roughly 500 businesses operating in Ferguson and adjacent communities, such as Dellwood and Jennings, suffered property damage or lost revenue as a result of the unrest, according to the regional development association, North County Inc. Sixteen businesses closed. Seven of those have yet to reopen, while four have relocated, according to a city tally.
In April, the nation was again reminded of the emotional and physical scars that can result from civil unrest. The death of a 25-year-old Baltimore black man, Freddie Gray, who died after being arrested, set off another wave of protests, riots and looting. Close to 400 businesses, most of them small, suffered some kind of property damage or inventory loss, according to the Baltimore Development Corp.
And yet the cities’ challenges are different. Baltimore has a larger tax base spread out over a diverse, stable middle class. It also enjoys a strategic location near the nation’s capital. As for Ferguson, “it’s going to be harder” to recover, said Bruce Katz, founding director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Katz notes that Ferguson has a relatively weak local economy. Local government in the region is split among dozens of municipalities with limited authority and funding, making it more difficult to spur growth.
Sales tax distributions to Ferguson fell 3.5% to $2.6 million in the period between August 2014 and May 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Missouri Department of Revenue. This figure likely understates the pain felt by local business owners, since it includes receipts from Wal-Mart, Home Depot and other big-box stores that contribute a substantial portion of the total.
…
Opinion: China’s MSCI reality check is too big to ignore
Published: June 15, 2015 5:14 p.m. ET
Reuters
A brokerage house in Fuyang, China.
By Craig Stephen Columnist
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — In recent weeks, much of the debate on China has centered on the idea that it is “too big to be ignored,” meaning the rest of the world would inevitably need to own its equities and currency. But now it’s set for a reality check.
In the same week that Chinese A-shares failed to be included in MSCI’s emerging-market benchmark, it was also revealed that global investors pulled $7.9 billion out of Asia. This was the biggest weekly withdrawal in almost 15 years, according to data provider EPFR Global, and the majority reportedly related to China.
Take this as a cue to look past China’s size and, instead, consider again its questionable fundamentals.
So far this year, concerns over a potential debt crisis have been drowned out by the roar of China’s domestic equity bull market — the best performing in the world this year by a long margin.
But last week’s decision by MSCI (MSCI, -1.08%) tells us it’s too early to consider China a mainstream asset class. Despite much talk of reform, Beijing’s efforts to open its capital markets or make its financial system more transparent have been limited. Yuan (USDCNY, -0.0290%) internationalization might be accelerating, but a capital-account opening still looks like a distant promise.
The decision against effectively forcing global fund managers to benchmark against an index they can still not freely buy and sell, in a currency that is not freely traded, is hard to take issue with.
…
North Shore of Kauai was epic and not really affordable!!
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5204-Weke-Rd-Hanalei-HI-96714/732798_zpid/
Grossly inflated and falling… and a long way to fall.