Bits Bucket for June 16, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Greece fun and games about to enter a denouement?
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/15/ecb-press-release-this-wednesday-could-end-extortion-racket-over-greece-a-la-cyprus-2013/
You have to wonder whether the Sword of Damocles hanging over the global financial economy might be weighing on asset prices.
Could be a tough week for the bovine herd, between Greece and FOMC inspired market turmoil.
Market Snapshot
FOMC, Greece jitters send U.S. stock futures lower
By Sara Sjolin
Published: June 16, 2015 8:13 a.m. ET
Getty Images
Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen
U.S. stocks on Tuesday were on track for a third straight day in the red, with futures pointing lower as investors remained cautious about the coming Federal Reserve meeting and a lack of progress in Greece’s debt talks.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMU5, -0.15% lost 53 points to 17,659, while those for the S&P 500 index ESU5, -0.20% gave up 7 points to 2,068.00. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index NQU5, -0.31% shaved off 19 points to 4,409.
The losses follow a downbeat trading day on Monday, when a breakdown in Greece’s debt negotiations dragged the benchmarks lower for a second straight session. Greece remained in the spotlight on Tuesday, with market participants getting increasingly worried the debt-laden country could default unless it reaches a deal with lenders later this week. Europe’s stock markets were lower almost across the board.
FOMC meeting: The other big story this week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting that kicks off later Tuesday. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen holds a news conference after the meeting concludes Wednesday.
“While little is expected in terms of policy chance at this juncture, speculation that a more hawkish Yellen will make an appearance is […] supporting the greenback,” said Brenda Kelly, head analyst at London Capital Group, in a note.
…
“While little is expected in terms of policy chance at this juncture, speculation that a more hawkish Yellen will make an appearance is […] supporting the greenback,”
The stage is set for a ‘more dovish than expected’ Yellen to weaken the greenback with hints of further rate-hike delays, surprise markets into a rally on Wall Street, and stimulate U.S. exports to increase the X component of GDP (Y = C + G + I + (X - M) ) and mitigate the ‘technical recession’ discussed in this week’s news.
Whistling during a stroll past the graveyard is not going to scare away the ghosts.
Need to Know
Why the ghost of 1937 is haunting the Fed and this market
Published: June 16, 2015 8:08 a.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
In 1937, the Hindenburg exploded and swing cats were doing The Big Apple.
That year also marks the last time the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates from zero, and what followed wasn’t pretty: a severe recession and a 49% collapse for the Dow Industrials (DJIA, +0.15%). Bank of America Merrill Lynch was among those chattering about 1937 parallels in a recent note, with a not-so-easy-on-the-eyes chart of that stock fallout way back when:
BofA Merrill Lynch/Bloomberg
The good news is that chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett isn’t extrapolating any scary history here. As he said — unlike in 1937 — inflation is under control and investors have plenty of faith in the economy. Commenting on Monday, Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said (h/t CNBC) the Fed has to move past the “ghost of 1937” and stop worrying about hiking rates too prematurely.
Arone noted that 78 years ago, consumer prices were dropping and unemployment was on the way up. A tardy Fed, “has a good chance of proving bearish for bonds, and longer-term, for equities as well,” he said. There’s a little more on using history as a guide from Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche who says rate hikes don’t normally kill bull markets.
…
Most indices are within a couple percent of their ALL TIME highs. There’s some worry, but I don’t see much selling…..yet.
I guess everyone is holding out for more gains after a record run? Seems like folks are being pretty greedy.
Markets must be expecting more FOMC liftoff postponement announcements ahead…
so the stock market has become solely dependent on what a group of people think interest rates should be?
Greece isn’t the big story.
The big story and the one to watch is derivatives. Back in February or March, Ben noted that derivatives now are to be backed by the U.S. taxpayer.
That’s huge.
The moral hazard alone….
Yes.
‘ Back in February or March, Ben noted that derivatives now are to be backed by the U.S. taxpayer.
That’s huge.’
Can you find the link for that?
Comment by azdude
2015-06-16 07:14:42
so the stock market has become solely dependent on what a group of people think interest rates should be?
No, they’re worried that a group of people with
legalized counterfeiting abilitythe ability to create new monies at will and force interest rates up or down at will through OMOs might decide to protect the value of those dollars that their private shareholders have scooped up en masse all these years.When that happens, markets (including the housing one) “fall down go boom.”
Who will buy the nation’s debt if the Fed steps back?
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/US-debt-holdings-slip-for-1st-time-since-October/shdaily.shtml
Greece is about the most boring story ever.
The left hates the story because it show that you can only provide for the FSA so long before it all collapses due to running out of OPM. What is the unemployment rate of Greece compared to Kansas?
“The left….”
Stuck on stupid, I see. Newsflash: Kick the can is always boring, and does not equate to collapse. But thanks for playing, dunderhead.
More of the same.
Or for that matter Ireland, which kept its low corporate income tax rate despite heavy pressure and has had a real recovery despite having what may have been the world’s worse housing bubble in 2008.
The Obamas had a party and I wasn’t invited. Sad panda.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2015/06/15/white-house-party-prince-stevie-wonder/71261124/
The top headline on Breitbart right now is titled Michelle O Tells Muslim Girls: When I Look At You ‘I See Myself’
I’m looking forward to this fraud moving on from the White House. Just looking at him disgusts me.
Once agin…. Why buy a house at these grossly inflated prices when prices are falling and you can rent for half the monthly cost?
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Fall 8%
http://www.movoto.com/redmond-wa/market-trends/
My mortgage payment is $400/month less than my Zillow Rent Zestimate. Thank you Auntie Yellen.
My Zestimate is twice what comparable rents are, but go with what makes you feel good in the moment.
What might be a more realistic concern is what will likely be the biggest capital loss of a lifetime.
That’s a good point, but I’m not sure I need to care? Let’s say after decades of home ownership I’ve spent $800k on the purchase price, interest, maintenance, but it’s only worth $500k at the end. Yeah, I’ve lost $300k but then what’s the value of shelter for all those years?
DonkeyMath
If you bought at $400K, consider that post bubble the shack might be worth $150K.
My housing expenses are locked in as well, at about half a million $ less than the WPA plan. What is the value of that? I do not have to work for the house. At all.
I used to think expenses were locked as well. But darn those property tax/lease payments!!
I hear you. My taxes went up $2 this year. It bites.
Why buy ANYTHING at these historically high prices. Everything is overpriced now IMHO. I have to eat but that’s about all I buy retail right now.
Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for years to come.
Leesburg, VA Housing Prices Fall 7%
http://www.movoto.com/leesburg-va/market-trends/
If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.
Chino Hills, CA Housing Prices Fall 6%
http://www.zillow.com/chino-hills-ca-91709/home-values/
Headed out of Tucumcari this morning. Should be home tonight and back to blogging.
Have a safe and good trip, Cap’n.
Thanks!
Song Willin’ by Little Feat and also sung by Linda Ronstadt: ‘I’ve been from Tucson to Tucumcari
Tehachapi to Tonapah
Driven every kind of rig that’s ever been made
Now I’ve driven the back roads
So I wouldn’t get weighed
And if you give me weed, whites, and wine
Then you show me a sign
I’ll be willin’ to be movin’”. here’s the Ronstadt version.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJHcD0kHTGk
+1
Realtors are liars.
You can say that again.
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/morning_call/2015/06/is-it-better-to-rent-or-buy-a-home-in-denver-right.html
http://ochousingnews.com/blog/realtors-expound-shoddy-analysis-to-create-a-false-sense-of-urgency/
Come home quick! Wow! I live in the rolling leafy hills of Western Connecticut. I just googled the street view of Tucamari. Depressing? Scary? Angst provoking?
I suppose a lot of America looks like that…flat and dry. Sort of a big void. I don’t think it’s fit for human habitation.
No different than the Litchfield square.
Where’s Litchfield Square? Litchfield Connecticut is gorgeous.
A wasteland in western CT
“I live in the rolling leafy hills of Western Connecticut. I just googled the street view of Tucamari. Depressing? Scary? Angst provoking?”
What’s not to like about pawn shops, tattoo parlors and section-8 phatties in filthy cotton sweats with a mulatto sprog or two?
It is a town which briefly boomed when the 55 mile an hour speed limit was put in place. Truckers reaching the end of their allowable hours needed to stop somewhere. So trucking companies flocked to the town to set up operations in the middle of nowhere, actually you have to drive about thirty miles to reach nowhere. When the speed limit was lifted the town began its decline.
Ouch! Even “Cracker” Bob finds that provocative.
Some pretty awesome scenery in the Llano Estacado just south of town.
“I suppose a lot of America looks like that…flat and dry. Sort of a big void. I don’t think it’s fit for human habitation.”
So, should we send all of the insta-communists invading our borders up your way?
Sounds like a great idea.
“Tucumcari”
Business or pleasure?
Is there a truck stop there?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Swallow_Motel
From what I could see Tucumcari is booming. Grocery store was packed, people buying and stocking going on in every aisle. Restaurant busy with people ordering steaks. Maybe a spillover of the oil biz?
The wind farming in the whole region is something to behold.
Tucumcari is on the old “Route 66.” The scenery changes quickly as you head south from the upper mid-west. The arid west! I was raised in San Jose, CA, so most of the U.S. is dead by comparison.
How many more years of bogus accounting and stock buybacks will we have before investors realize they have been hosed again?
should corporations keep firing folks to cut costs so execs can cash out their stock options at a higher price?
From an outsider looking in it appears the people really making money on stocks are the insiders.
Right.
How would the sharks on Shark Tank, who actually look on the value of a business as a business and its cash earning potential, say about the U.S. stock market as a whole?
I’m OUT!
Its a bubble if your not in and a bull market if you are?
I guess we all could have done this:
“I actually Googled ‘how to start a mortgage bank,’” Crawford, 37, said in a telephone interview. “We got to build from the ground up what 21st-century customer experience can and should look like. We went from seven employees to, this month, 2,000.”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/this-former-nfl-player-is-winning-us-mortgage-share-from-banks/ar-BBlcKED?ocid=iehp
You could have, should have, would have, but you didn’t.
I should have? I would have? Speak for yourself. No, on both counts, as far as I’m concerned. I was simply relating the information in the article with the (perhaps facetious) remark that “anyone” could have done it.
I don’t make nearly as much money, but I find my time spent much more personally satisfying in other pursuits. I regret having conveyed the impression that I wish I had done it.
Buying Apple stock at $7 a share? yeah, I regret not having done that!!!
I never wished I had started a mortgage bank.
In reply to yesterday’s Colorado Springs thread:
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/morning_call/2015/06/priced-out-of-a-denver-area-home-what-about.html
I used to work with someone who commutes from Colorado Springs, one night in a snowstorm it took her three and a half hours to drive home from Denver
I’ve heard it can can get really bad around Monument (due to the high altitude) and if really bad they’ll close I25. That doesn’t seem to happen between Denver and Fort Collins to the north, though I25 does close between Fort Collins and Cheyenne.
That’s why you should always bring empty Gatorade bottles on your commute:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trucker+bomb
You got anything wider?
Monument Hill - a real bitch on a long 6% incline - load it up with 18 wheelers and it gets real ugly real quick.
Isn’t there a state highway or something that parallels I-25 there? Maybe less nerve-wracking a ride than being on a 70+MPH road? A few times I rode bicycle from Denver to CO Springs. Crazy thing is, I ended up coming out from behind the AF Academy off of some bike trail. I think I rode I-25 a portion too. Yeah, there was (is?) a time when bicyclists were allowed on the interstate.
Isn’t there a state highway or something that parallels I-25 there?
There is a State 105 to the west and State 83 to the east. The 105 doesn’t go into Denver, the 83 does.
Bicycles are generally allowed on interstates in California but only IF there is no alternate route…not so bad on a road with wide shoulders but insanely dangerous on one with no shoulders and a guardrail, like 101 south of Crescent City. OK in parts of Nevada too, I rode all the way across the state on US Hwy 50 (except for small portions on frontage roads whenever possible)
Drudge Report link confirms that even the youts know the future belongs to Lucky Ducky:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/06/teenagers-are-losing-confidence-in-the-american-dream/395780/
Tell the youts to drop out of school and start a fake science climate change denial web site like the founder of WattsUpWithThat. Then they’ll be taken care of by the big boys, and their future will be assured.
It’s the last remnant of the American dream. Find yourself an oligarch and stick with him like glue!
Once again you can’t dispute the accuracy of the article so you attack the source, typical lame response.
…the source of which you attacked.
When I see your name, I hear the distant sound of circus music.
Another ad hominem attack? Still can’t refute the data, too bad facts are stubborn things.
You’re a Lola.
If you have been short oil since it was in the low forties, you are having to sell it like Lola.
you are having to sell it like Lola.
That gives me a real chuckle. And just two posts from this:
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-06-16 09:39:04
Another ad hominem attack? Still can’t refute the data,
You’re not a hypocrite Adan. Not at all.
(I get under your “lawyer” skin and it makes me laugh.)
It was an ad hominem attack in direct response to an ad hominem attack. That is very different from responding to the posting of a legitimate point and being the subject of an ad hominem attack.
You have never been able to get under my skin, because I honestly do not believe you have ever won a debate with me.
OK. Whatever makes you feel like a lawyer Adan.
I honestly do not believe you have ever won a debate with me.
You are not honest with yourself. That’s why many of your arguments are hypocritical.
Like touting China’s “SupplySide Miracle” which was directly enabled by USA’s SupplySideTrickleDown failure.
To not see this contradiction is not being honest.
There are intelligent people on this board like Combo, Prime and Oxide that can give me a decent debate, but you can only carry their bags.
can give me a decent debate, but you can only carry their bags.
If “carrying their bags” means logically and systematically pointing out that that China’s “Supply-Side miracle” was directly enabled by the USA’s Supply/SideTrickleDown failure, and therefore your argument of touting SupplySide is hypocritical…well then I’m happy to carry their bags.
means logically and systematically pointing out that that China’s “Supply-Side miracle”
You are truly delusional if you think you have done that. You have repeated a couple of unrelated talking points nothing more. It is completely idiotic to believe that providing incentives to build factories here helps China.
It is completely idiotic to believe that providing incentives to build factories here helps China.
No. What’s completely idiotic is to say SupplySideTrickleDown did not give away our industrial base to China.
Even Reagan’s SupplySide’s guru fArt Laffer (Of recent Kansas failure too) touts “free-trade” on his website. USA’s TrickleDown march to “free-trade” made China what it is today. These are facts and history Adan.
“The broader supply-side policy mix points to the importance of sound money; free trade; less regulation….”
Supply-Side Economics Laffercenter dot com
Repeating the same talking points over and over does not establish causation. Just how did promoting U.S. production through supply side economics give away our industrial base?
Just how did promoting U.S. production through supply side economics give away our industrial base?
Repeating a talking-point fallacy does not negate your lawyer trickery hypocrisy.
Your premise is wrong and you know it. USA’s 34 year version of SupplySideTrickle did not promote US production. It did the exact opposite.
USA’s 34 year version of SupplySideTrickleDown promoted offshoring - which enabled China’s “SupplySide Miracle”.
Lola I and Lola II
More supply side economics from China, btw Reagan was often called a protectionist when he was in office, he believed in free trade but was not dogmatic about it, certainly he would not have allowed China to destroy our industrial base, he would have protected it long enough for new investments to make us competitive:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Innovators-to-get-more-support/shdaily.shtml
(Reagan) believed in free trade but was not dogmatic about it, certainly he would not have allowed China to destroy our industrial base
That could be true. Reagan was also not dogmatic about not raising taxes when it was needed. It can also be argued that the Repubs who came after Reagan hijacked his economic legacy and ideas and turned them into SupplySideTrickeDown on steroids and turned what might have been needed in the 80s into a “religion” that taken way too far, gave away a lot of our industrial base and has hurt the American middle-class.
“You have never been able to get under my skin, because I honestly do not believe you have ever won a debate with me.”
He’s never won a debate with a fence post, either.
Fox News article for all the big government, nanny state, medical marijuana haters who want to control what adults can and can’t put inside their bodies, because it’s “for the children”
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2015/06/16/medical-marijuana-laws-dont-increase-teen-use-study-suggests/
P.S. Sheldon Adelson spent $5,000,000 to defeat a Florida 2014 medical marijuana ballot initiative, no “smaller government” or “lower taxes” happening there, LOLZ
Cinnamon is more dangerous than marijuana.
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2015/06/09/4-year-old-dies-after-eating-cinnamon/?intcmp=ob_article_footer_text&intcmp=obinsite
“Medical” marijuana is a JOKE. Here in California where “medical” marijuana is legal with a doctor’s note, gee, it seems the number one demographic getting notes are young men in their 20’s seeking relief for vague symptoms like back pain.
I think they should just dump the whole charade and just legalize it for recreational use.
I really don’t have time to post but this story is just to “good” not to post. It is just such an example of green crony capitalism. Google needs J6P to bail them out of a bad investment in green energy? A solar plant in California has too much cloud cover during a four year drought? You just can’t make this stuff up:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/15/solar-fossil-fueled-fantasies/
So the college-dropout weatherman also derides renewable energy when not denying man-made climate change? Does he ever post anything that exxon doesn’t agree with?
Not hard to see where his funding comes from.
Oh, that reminds me Dan, did you ever decide whether or not you’re paid to post stuff on the internet?
Did it attack your religion? AGW stopped being science ten years ago when it became apparent that the temperatures and the co2 levels in the atmosphere were diverging. At that point real scientists would have acknowledged that the theory was not being substantiated, not tried to cover up the data.
A worldwide conspiracy of scientists, so big, so intricate, that no one can explain it sensibly.
Or a few fake science sites, funded by the fossil fuel industries.
Occam says…
occams razor says the science is funded by a source. What is the source? What is the promoted viewpoint of the source?
“occams razor says the science is funded by a source”
Worldwide science is funded by a source? A single source? Occam’s razor says that?
Or are you referring to the fossil fuel industry funded climate change denial sites? Because then it makes sense. A source with an obvious financial interest, as opposed to a worldwide conspiracy of scientists from various institutions in all the countries of the world.
Markets
Quicken Loans Takes On the U.S.
Quicken Loans’ lawsuit against the Justice Department reflects the gumption that has come to define the mortgage lender
A vinyl elevator decal at Quicken Loans is made by Fathead Inc.; both companies are controlled by Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken Loans, in Detroit, Mich., is the country’s third-largest mortgage lender. BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken Loans considers itself more in sync with Silicon Valley than Wall Street. ‘We’re a technology and marketing company that happens to do mortgages,’ says CEO Bill Emerson.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken’s offices have the trappings of a highflying tech startup, including an indoor basketball court.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Data analysts Tyler Zupan, left and Yilu Dai work in the Mission Control area at Quicken Loans.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken Loans’ Chief Economist Bob Walters says loan applications are sent through the equivalent of an assembly line, with the company carving a handful of traditional roles handled by mortgage professionals into about 85 distinct positions.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The assembly line approach, Mr. Walters says, means Quicken can double its volume and see only a small increase in the time it takes to turn around loans.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken Loans’ offices have areas for lounging and playing video games. BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Designer Dima Daimi, who works for DPop, part of the Quicken Loans family, works in a former bank vault in the basement of the Chrysler House building.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Bruce Schwartz shows off the unique way that Quicken Loans packages its closing documents for clients.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
A vinyl elevator decal at Quicken Loans is made by Fathead Inc.; both companies are controlled by Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Quicken Loans, in Detroit, Mich., is the country’s third-largest mortgage lender.
BRIAN WIDDIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
By Peter Rudegeair
June 14, 2015 7:13 p.m. ET
At Quicken Loans Arena in downtown Cleveland, a 5,500-square-foot “Humongotron” updates fans on the efforts of LeBron James and his fellow Cavaliers as they try to capture an NBA title.
Across Lake Erie, in Detroit, a smaller digital display in the Quicken Loans Inc. headquarters tracks the firm’s quest to reshape the mortgage market.
Both efforts look surprisingly promising, though major tests loom.
Quicken Loans last year extended $59 billion in mortgages, surpassing Bank of America Corp. to become the third-largest mortgage lender in the U.S., according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication. Unlike its big-bank rivals, the firm achieved its rapid growth without the benefit of a network of branches or ties to local agents, instead relying on technology and aggressive marketing.
The privately held firm, controlled by Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert, is now making another unconventional—and much bolder—move: suing the U.S. government.
…
I called quicken awhile back and I asked them what their rates were. They didn’t want to tell me anything until I started an application for a loan. I went somewhere else.
Whether or not you agree with Dan Gilbert’s business model, he has really changed downtown Detroit for the better. New restaurants are popping up everywhere, and the streets are filled with an army of jeans wearing twenty somethings he has brought in to fill the office buildings he’s bought, although I hear they don’t last long if they don’t meet their quotas.
I’m sure the Chinese government will masterfully manipulate their stock markets, just like they did real estate investment:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-15/regulators-try-clamp-down-soaring-china-margin-loans-without-triggering-panic
Speaking of China, due to the renewed weakness in Europe and the U.S. I expect China will have to cut interest rates again, which it can due to the rates being well above the inflation rate and to spend even more on infrastructure which it can due to a low national debt, to meet the around 7% target. Article from China Daily on real estate:
BEIJING - China’s real estate market, widely scrutinized for its significance to the world’s second largest economy, has shown glimmering signs of bottoming out in big cities.
The property market remains largely anemic, but a string of indicators show the sector’s decline may be coming to an end in China’s major cities.
In the first five months, home sales volume in first and second-tier cities increased by 41 percent and 13.4 percent, respectively, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In Guangzhou, 9,313 homes were sold last month, hitting a yearly record for the city. In Shenzhen, some newly-opened housing projects sold out in just a day.
In Beijing, 121 homes with a price of more than 100,000 yuan ($16,300) per square meter were sold from January to May - 17 times the level in the same period last year, according to market tracker Yahao.
“The real estate market is clearly warming up,” said Wang Baobin, a senior NBS statistician.
On a national basis, home sales volume continued to dip in the first five months, but the rate of decline slowed by 4.6 percentage points from the first four months.
As a result, home sales value nationwide rose 3.1 percent in the January-May period from a 3.1-percent decline in the January-April period, the first increase since February 2014.
The bullish stock market created several millionaires over the last few months, which partly contributed to recovering home sales, according to Yahao.
But analysts said pro-growth measures, which have slowly been taking effect, are more significant.
The central bank has cut the benchmark interest rate three times since November. It has also lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio twice since February.
In March, China reduced down payment levels for second-home buyers to 40 percent from the previous 60 to 70 percent, and exempted business tax for sales of homes purchased over two years ago.
Li Qiaoling, an analyst with property agent Home Link, said home transactions are rebounding on the back of such measures.
Home prices are rising in big cities, but still sluggish in small ones.
First-tier cities saw average home prices up 1 percent on a monthly basis in April, whereas those in second- and third-tier cities declined 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
Despite the marginal improvement in major cities, Qin Hong, head of a research center under the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, ruled out a sharp hike in home prices nationwide.
“Generally speaking, there is still an oversupply of housing. Therefore, it is unlikely to see skyrocketing prices across the country,” said Qin.
Even in first-tier cities where demand exceeds supply, purchase restrictions will help keep prices from rising too rapidly, according to her.
The NBS is scheduled to release home prices in May on Thursday.
It really sounds like they have invented a perpetual motion machine over there. Money is rushing into the stock market because housing investments are going sour. Housing is going up because everybody is getting rich off of the stock market.
A $65 billion dollar per month trade surplus sure does not hurt.
A $65 billion dollar per month trade surplus sure does not hurt.
This is where too much Supply-Side eats its young. Think about what happened and why.
How can people praise China’s “Supply-Side miracle” when it was America’s over embrace of Supply-Side that gave America’s manufacturing to China and thus hurt America’s middle-class?
Makes no sense. It’s an over worship of an economic philosophy that if not regulated carefully destroys large parts of economies. Proof? USA.
How can people praise China’s “Supply-Side miracle” when it was America’s over embrace of Supply-Side that gave America’s manufacturing to China and thus hurt America’s middle-class?
Makes no sense. It’s an over worship of an economic philosophy that if not regulated carefully destroys large parts of economies. Proof? USA.
It is your comment that makes no sense. If we would have continued supply side economics we would have competed with China. Clinton abandoned supply side economics and substituted demand side economics built on cheaper and cheaper debt. It was entirely demand side just like Brazil and like Brazil, it has collapsed. We have not been investing in plant and equipment that is our problem and it has gotten worse under Obama. That is why this is the worse recovery on record since WWII, no investment by business and Obama did nothing to encourage investment, his policies and laws have discouraged it.
If we would have continued supply side economics we would have competed with China.
No. Giving our manufacturing to China promoted a basic tenant of the Trickle-Down philosophy which is a part of Supply-Side economics. Proof? Since we’ve given our manufacturing base to China, most of the benefits have gone to the most wealthy. But it did not trickle down. Now those are facts.
trick·le-down
adjective
(of an economic system) in which the poorest gradually benefit as a result of the increasing wealth of the richest.
We have not been investing in plant and equipment that is our problem
Why would USA invest in plants and equipment when the adherence to Supply-Side/Trickle Down made it much cheaper and desirable for the rich to make stuff in China?
Again:
How can people praise China’s “Supply-Side miracle” when it was America’s over embrace of Supply-Side that gave America’s manufacturing to China and thus hurt America’s middle-class?
You don’t make much sense. You try to bend reality to fit your narrative.
China’s “Supply-Side Miracle” is based on USA’s Supply-Side failure. Thus if adhered to too dogmatically, Supply-Side eats its own.
How can people praise China’s “Supply-Side miracle” when it was America’s over embrace of Supply-Side that gave America’s manufacturing to China and thus hurt America’s middle-class?
Again how can a philosophy that encourages investment in the U.S. give manufacturing to China? WTO membership gave China America’s manufacturing and Clinton and Bush I did that and Bush always hated supply side economics and did not practice it. He was and is a globalist and certainly did not want U.S. factories competing against the factories owned by the globalists overseas. You were wrong about Brazil and you were wrong about the results of Obama’s policies. You will have some credibility if Brazil can return to 7% growth but right now we have a great example of demand side economics Brazil and a great example of supply side economics China and it is not hard to see who is kicking butt.
Again how can a philosophy that encourages investment in the U.S. give manufacturing to China?
Because Supply-Side/Trickle Down does not “encourage investment” in the USA and you know it but can’t admit it because it destroys your false argument.
SupplySideTrickleDown basic and real tenet is to put more money in the rich’s pocket with the failed promise that it would “trickle-down”. It’s what Reagan told us.
So lets get real. Even companies that benefit greatly from offshoring admit giving our manufacturing to China was total “TrickleDown” tripe.
Playing the Devil’s Advocate For Offshoring
http://cerasis.com/2015/05/26/manufacturing-renaissance/
Over the past few decades, many companies have sent manufacturing jobs overseas through the application of Trickle-Down Economics. The promise of cheaper labor, cheaper products, and more for all Americans sounded great, but it drove a wedge between politicians and the people of America.
I think it has something to do with the selfishness and stupidity of the American consumer. When your neighbors are unemployed factory workers and you buy foreign made crap to save a couple of bucks, your community is unsustainable. Perhaps too simplistic a view.
When your neighbors are unemployed factory workers and you buy foreign made crap to save a couple of bucks, your community is unsustainable.
It’s usually more than just a few bucks.
I think it has something to do with the selfishness and stupidity of the American consumer.
It does but it’s governments role to promote trade practices that are beneficial to the country as a whole and not just the consumer’s ability to selfishly save some money on stuff.
As far as stupidity of the American consumer, we were constantly told “free-trade” would benefit us more than it would hurt us.
The wealth gained by the “producers” did not trickle-down and the money we saved on Chinese stuff did not come close to compensate for our losses.
You were wrong about Brazil.
I was never wrong about Brazil. Brazil has come very far in 15 years. 40 million out of poverty - more kids in school and consumers have more money. I’m on record since 2009 here saying Brazil could have a housing bubble and who’s economy would slow at some point. Brazil also has a terrible drought, 15 years since the last recession until now and 50% of Brazil’s exports are influenced by a busted commodity cycle. It’s not rocket surgery dude.
and you were wrong about the results of Obama’s policies
Like when you said ACA would “death spiral” by now or Dems would abandon ACA this past spring? Or Bibi would bomb Iran because of Obama’s “bad deal”. Or Romney looked great because Rasmussen said whatever this and that and USA was through with Obama’s policies? Like those parts?
Obamacare is in a death spiral and the people on the individual mandates know it. Double digit increases when no one can even afford the deductibles is a death spiral. I said that either the Democrats would abandon it or they would be wiped out in the 2014 Fall elections and guess what happened? Bibi will bomb if he has to, there is no deal in place and that is all I said besides yours distortions. The Rasmussen point has been disproven over and over, you show your lack of intelligence just by raising it again.
What I said in the Spring of 2014 about Obamacare and the Democrats failure to repeal:
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-03-25 13:32:24
I do not disagree with any explicit point but disagree with your implicit point. Obamacare may please the corporate interests, but it also makes government have an interest in every aspect of our life. So as a person that does not like big government or the corporate globalists, I find it truly offensive. When HA is paying for his own insurance, I have no interest in what he eats. However, when taxpayers are forced to subsidize other’s insurance all of sudden whatever they do becomes my business if it impacts their health. There is nothing inconsistent with true conservatives/libertarians not wanting government being involved with health insurance even if corporate America wants government involved. Now why do liberals like it, other than they do like to meddle? I really do not know why liberals are walking the plank to defend this Rube Goldberg program. If I was a liberal, I would vote to repeal this tomorrow to survive and then work on a single payer healthcare system. It appears to be blind loyalty to Obama that is going to do them in just like it did many other Democrats in 2010.
Obamacare is in a death spiral and the people on the individual mandates know it. Double digit increases when no one can even afford the deductibles is a death spiral.
Right. And if “double-digit increases and unaffordable deductibles” were the criteria for a “death-spiral” then American health insurance has been in a “death spiral” for 25 years because those are old news in the USA.
and the people on the individual mandates know it.
These people?
Poll: 81 Percent Of People Satisfied With ObamaCare
http://www.opposingviews.com/i/…/poll-81-percent-people-satisfied-obamacar... Mon, June 15, 2015
74 percent of Republicans are happy with their new Obamacare plans…
theweek.com/…/74-percent-republicans-are-happy-new-obamacare-plans
But in terms of their own experiences with ObamaCare? According to a new poll taken by the Commonwealth Fund, people enrolled in ObamaCare are satisfied.
I would vote to repeal this tomorrow to survive and then work on a single payer healthcare system.
Political fantasy-land. So where are the Dems running
from the ACA as you said they would be by this last spring?
Bibi will bomb if he has to,
And this coming from you who today basically called Hillary a war monger. You are not consistent in much at all.
PS. (Rasmussen has Trump up in parts of Manhattan.)
Nobody has even heard of those polling organizations, how about going with someone that has a track record? The rest is so much drivel it does not deserve a response.
Nobody has even heard of those polling organizations
BS. You’ve never heard if the century old Commonwealth fund, its non-partisan nature, what it does, their almost billion dollar endowment but you think you can rationally comment on the performance of USA health-care?
The Commonwealth Fund is a private foundation that aims to promote a high performing health care system that achieves better access, improved quality, and greater efficiency, particularly for society’s most vulnerable, including low-income people, the uninsured, minority Americans, young children, and elderly adults.
The Fund carries out this mandate by supporting independent research on health care issues and making grants to improve health care practice and policy. An international program in health policy is designed to stimulate innovative policies and practices in the United States and other industrialized countries.
Still very unpopular with the American public and with independents but getting back to the numbers of a death spiral getting ten cents in premiums for a dollar in claims, yea that setting up a death spiral, we will see how much the people on it like it after they get their premium increases:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-06/oregon-shows-how-obamacare-could-remake-insurance-market
“I was never wrong about Brazil…”
Only the really good koolaid has the memory loss feature.
Nobody has even heard of those polling organizations, how about going with someone that has a track record?
Forbes has heard of them enough that Forbes and other conservative mags cite them often. Is their almost 100 year “track record” enough for you?
U.S. Healthcare Ranked Dead Last Compared To 10 Other Countries
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danmunro/2014/06/16/u-s-healthcare-ranked-dead-last-compared-to-10-other-countries/
For this year’s survey on overall health care, The Commonwealth Fund ranked the U.S. dead last .
1. United Kingdom
2. Switzerland
3. Sweden
4. Australia
5. Germany & Netherlands (tied)
7. New Zealand & Norway (tied)
9. France
10. Canada
11. United States
It’s fairly well accepted that the U.S. is the most expensive healthcare system in the world, but many continue to falsely assume that we pay more for healthcare because we get better health (or better health outcomes). The evidence, however, clearly doesn’t support that view.
Only the really good koolaid has the memory loss feature.
You must be drinking it because I have exact examples talking to you BlueSky saying Brazil could be in a bubble from 2009 and 2011. To you. In clear English.
I’ve posted them in response to you a few months ago. You don’t remember? They are on my home computer and when I’m home next week, I’ll post them again if you really can’t remember. But you will be embarrassed.
Oh no! Not the embarrassment, anything but that.
Anyway, I remember. I deleted the response I wrote then because I thought is was impolite.
I remember. I deleted the response I wrote then because I thought is was impolite.
Well thank you then. And I’ve found some more of my posts from 2009-2013 talking to you about Brazil if you’re interested in revisiting the subject.
P.S. China did not invent that perpetual motion machine, California did. High tech stock bubbles which feed housing bubbles is the California story for the last twenty years.
The wealth redistributionist, class-warfare warriors are at it again. Kansas’ Koch Brothers rigged it to cut their taxes and raise taxes on the working class and poor. I think the Koch brothers needed their tax cuts so they can spend a billion dollars on the 2016 election to elect Repubs to cut their taxes more. (You can’t make this stuff up.)
Kansas’ regressive approach to redistributing wealth
“Let’s call this what it is: a redistribution of wealth, from the bottom up. Kansas is keeping its tax breaks for the wealthy, while approving tax increases – by some measures, “the largest tax increase in state history” – that will disproportionately affect those at the bottom….Congratulations, Kansas. You appear to be living in a Dickensian nightmare.”
“There are two main problems with Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) far-right economic experiment. The first is that the plan didn’t work – it didn’t create the promised jobs boom; it didn’t create massive growth; and it didn’t cause businesses to stampede into the state.
The second problem is the challenge of dealing with the consequences of failure.”
(So Kansas raised the taxes on the poor and middle class.)
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/kansas-regressive-approach-redistributing-wealth
That was the plan all along.
Reagan did it too. To “save Social Security.”
Ignoring a program running out of money like Obama is doing for all the trust funds is not being a leader.
There are two main problems with Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) far-right economic experiment. The first is that the plan didn’t work – it didn’t create the promised jobs boom; it didn’t create massive growth; and it didn’t cause businesses to stampede into the state.
The pain of cutting government is in the short term. Government workers add to the GDP of the state because the GDP measures include government. Tax incentives take time, certainly more than a few years to increase the GDP to make up for those layoffs. Combine that with a drop in agricultural prices, a major part of the Kansas economy, and it is not hard to see why the response has not been immediate. However, Kansas had its best growth in three years last year and we will see what happens this year.
Tax incentives take time, certainly
Takes time? The rich’s taxes have greatly trended down for 34 years in America (SupplySide) but it didn’t trickle down.
We just need a little more time.
It worked under Reagan just compare his recovery with Obama’s non-recovery.
It worked under Reagan just compare his recovery with Obama’s non-recovery.
SupplySide worked under Reagan because SupplySideTrickleDown had not have 34 years yet to destroy vast sections of our economy in favor of the rich. (TrickleDown)
In Reagan’s day we still had many more trade protections, unions and an industrial base. Why do we not have the same Industrial base now?
You know why. It’s because taken too far, SupplySide eats its young.
“Best growth in three years”
Why not compare it to the last 10 in Kansas?
Or that it sucked, when compared to the “growth” of 46 of the other 50 states?
Between the “I got mine, eff everyone else in the state “Johnson Countians, and the bootstrapping, insular, government is bad (except when it enforces Evangelist/Pro Lifer Sharia Laws), God loving country folk, don’t look for anything to change.
One thing to identify being black and in fact BE black - what a fraud. This has the same nasty smell to it that Bruce “Caitlyn” Jenner has…..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/disgraced-rachel-dolezal-breaks-silence-interview-says-i-identify-black
I identify with wealthy people.
+1
This isn’t anything new.
See “Malibu’s Most Wanted”
Just a (pathetic?) example of being human. Or a sign of the times.
Can’t find that in family or community anymore. About every family i know is a dysfunctional mess, but some people do a better job of hiding it.
So everybody wants to be a member of a club/group/ethnic, to feel like you “belong”.
See most sports fans, where this desire is turned into profit.
If you’re a proper marxist and down with the struggle, you get a pass.
PBear and others -
This from Stockman’s contra corner - I have a sense that this paragraph and subsequent linky summarizes the theme of Bits Buckets and HBB for some time - our economy is nothing more than a casino with a best guess at the cards on the table and price discovery knowing in the back of our minds that” the house” (however the house is defined) always wins.
“As documented in Parts 1-3 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), the Fed has generated a $50 trillion financial bubble since Alan Greenspan took the helm in August 1987. After 27 years, honest price discovery has been destroyed, thereby reducing the nerve centers of capitalism—-the money and capital markets—-to little more than gambling casinos.”
Linky here….
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-warren-buffett-economy-why-its-days-are-numbered-part-4/
I have decided the whole “Greek Exit” thing is overrated. If Greece defaults the financial effects will be less than the media storm it will create. Greece is a mere 0.4% of the world’s GDP. Remember, the world survived multiple defaults by Argentina. Yes, there will be some waves in the bathtub and gnashing of teeth but the world will recover. Any large dips in US markets following a Greek exit/default should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
HAAAAWKS WIN!!!
A bit of good news in the land of ILLANNOY!!!!
No comment from Mayor Rummy yet….news at 5.
http://www.breitbart.com/sports/2015/06/15/dynasty-chicago-blackhawks-win-2015-stanley-cup-over-tampa-bay-lightning/
Hockey? What is this “hockey”, of which you speak?
I will say this for hockey. They sure have a lot more fun with the championship trophy.
Mayor Rummy should make like a hockey player and get the puck out of there.
Youse guys make me laugh
The “supply side” plan didn’t work (or maybe it did, if your plan was to eliminate taxes on rich people, and pile the tax burden on the wretched refuse)
So maybe Kansas needs to come up with a new promotional model
“Kansas…….yeah, it sucks, but at least we have water”
http://tinyurl.com/nk5nv7y
but at least we have water
Don’t downplay that. Worldwide there is a shortage of the “blue gold”
Nah, it’s just all trapped in the atmosphere.
Donald Trump for President! It’s official.
I can’t tell you how big this is for the Repubs. Mark this day down. Waste no time in backing Trump. I can’t recommend Trump highly enough. This changes everything.
Even Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again” is bold. He’s not just talking about making America “good” again. He talking about making USA “great” again. No one else comes close to that kind of vision.
Trump to the Dems:
“You’re fired!”
Certainly is better than Jeb or Hillary. I know you are being sarcastic but I am being truthful.
Certainly (Trump) is better than Jeb or Hillary.
If Trump would be a better president than Jeb Bush, well we better really pray for a Democrat imo.
Not when the Democrat that is most likely to be nominated is worse than Bush. Even more tied to crony capitalism, a bigger war hawk and corrupt beyond belief.
Our chances would be much better if the president were elected by lottery.
I gave a list above about good debaters to Rio, sorry I forgot you. You do belong on it.
Anyone is better than the POS marxo-fascists from Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania Avenue.
Definitely not the man the U.S. needs. Is he the man the U.S. deserves? He’d finish off this country once and for all on behalf of Generation Greed.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/donald-trump-the-man-of-his-generation/
lol! Good stuff!
Trump 2016. We deserve it.
Regardless of who wins the NBA finals, will both Cleveland AND Oakland burn after the final game?
Over / under on this?
Probability that one city has flipped over cars, sh*t burning in the streets and cops in riot gear is 90%.
Probability that both do is, I would say, 50/50.
This is an article about Sheldon Adelson using an Israeli newspaper he owns to rally support for Marco Rubio in the American presidential election:
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-16/adelson-beats-2016-drum-for-rubio-through-free-israeli-newspaper
Any discussion or criticism of this will be branded as anti-semitic, because Christian Zionism
Boeing FUBAR Watch, June 2015….
Famous BS phrases:
“Check is in the mail”
“I’ll pull out, I promise…..”
“Our problems with seats are behind us…..”
Among other things, Zodiac is discovering that replacing trained and skilled people with people just out of the fields and construction sites is not working out so well.
http://tinyurl.com/q45sjgs
Because outsourcing has worked SO well.
“Arizona! Where U been?
All sorts of places, X-GS. And here I am, back again!
Note (by doing a Google Search) that these problems started hitting the news last summer.
Of course, the PR flacks insisted that Boeing and Zodiac management had a “plan” to correct this.
The now-oft-repeated play-by-play, for Manufacturing in America, circa 2015:
-Prime contractor decides to outsource more and more of their “non-core” components/sub assemblies. Forgetting that they are now putting their product at risk, because…….
-Sub contractors (many of which are owned by private equity, who are in their own “outsourcing of non-core functions/cost cutting” modes), lowball the project/component, assuming they can make it cheaper by getting rid of the high skilled Industrial Midwest/West Coast labor, and replacing them with Overseas/legal or illegal immigrant/based south of the Mason-Dixon line labor.
-Nobody can find “qualified workers”. So these guys lobby local government (via “public-private partnerships”) to train a workforce, so they don’t have to do it, or pay what it takes to get qualified people to move out to BFE.
-Too late, to prime finds out that the sub-contractor can’t complete the contract, without a massive infusion of money and tech support from the OEM. Occasionally, the situation is so bad that you are money ahead to BUY OUT the subcontractor (which, BTW, helps the private equity scumbags).
-So the OEM finds itself back in the business of building the same components it used to build. And thanks to PR and a lazy business press, the chaos/delays/wasted money/workforce displacement gets swept under the carpet
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/16/prelude-to-a-quagmire-obama-iraq-isis/
Charles Hughes Smith calculates the REAL unemployment number:
http://tinyurl.com/o9uwnau
His definition of “fully employed” = (Income of $15K year) = (40 hr/week @ minimum wage) sounds reasonable to me.
He discusses it, but I’d figure it as “Income minus Public Assistance = Real World Income”
Lets just say the “official” unemployment rate is a lot lower than the “defacto”.
Yes, and Obama allowing businesses to hire illegals is going to make it even better for American workers.
Link:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jun/16/obama-amnesty-extends-businesses-hire-illegals/
I still like my idea. And it doesn’t require fences or drones:
-Have the local FBI offices find a dozen or so high profile local business owners who hire illegals, and
-Throw their asses in jail.
OR,
Plan B will need some funding, because you will need some good lawyers.
-Find someone whose wife/husband/child was killed by an illegal, whether he was at work or not.
(murder/drunk driver/etc.)
-Have a PI find the name of the Gringo that ultimately gave him a job (and has some assets), then
-SUE the living crap out of them. After all, they wouldn’t be here if they didn’t have jobs.
-You don’t even have to win (although that would be awesome). Just reduce the perceived cost savings of hiring them.
-Next…….sue anyone who uses H-1Bs. None of them are here because of their “skill set”. They are here to undercut tech worker salaries.
BTW, our biggest problem is generation of “BS” numbers like the “Official Inflation Rate” and “Unemployment Rate”
All are being massaged to hide the problems generated by the politicos and the business and banking elite. The “green light” at the border for massive legal and illegal immigration being just one of them.
Another BS number: “12 million illegal immigrants”.
It wouldn’t surprise me (judging from the places I’ve been) of that number was DOUBLE that. The PTB don’t want to know the real number, because the S would HTF, and they might actually be forced to DO something about it.
Read Ann Coulter’s new book it will confirm what a bogus number that the 11 or 12 million number is.
LOL!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102763315
What we’ve been talking about regarding difficulty in building inexpensive homes:
“Emrath points to stronger no-growth movements, new environmental development standards and the plain fact that so many local politicians run on platforms that include preserving neighborhoods. The problem is more acute for so-called Class A lots, which are in the most desirable locations, usually in or near to city centers.”
“”The lower price points are just not financially feasible. Believe me, if they could sell homes for $200,000 and make money doing it, they’d be doing it all day long. There is no way they can do that,” added Burns. “
You could buy them plentiful in 2009. So what’s different now? Oh yeah, materials and labor are OVERPRICED. Price discovery will be a B.
“So what’s different now?”
Fewer distressed sellers.
With foreclosure moratoriums in all 50 states, what distress is there?
There is no demand for houses at $200k. And we can and do build them for less than that all year long.
There you go lying again. You can’t even buy the dirt to build on for $200K in my area.
In many areas, almost brand new houses are knocked down to make room for bigger new houses, the land is ten times more valuable than the house. Yes, it is easy to put up a house in flyover for that but not on the coasts.
Excellent point jp. There is no better proof of mania than the price of houses in your area.
Welcome to reality my friends.
You’re weak on the data, weak on construction, weak on engineering, weak on architecture.
Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Fall 8%
http://www.movoto.com/kirkland-wa/market-trends/
How many have you built and sold for less than $200k?
You don’t even need to tell us where, just volume. That should be easy enough, right?
Median new house price in the USA didn’t go over $200,000 until about 10 years ago. Land and house. This is well into what we call the Housing Bubble.
buy a house and get some instant equity my friend.
That is true. Median price went over $200k in about 2003. This is a time that people here call well into the “Housing Bubble”, but many others refer to this era as part of a normal cycle, with the bubble only occurring when financing went crazy in 2004-2007. In other words, 2003 was the very beginning of the bubble for many (if at all), not “well into” the bubble.
From January 2000 to January 2003, median new home prices went up an average of 3.5% per year.
From January 1997 to January 2003, median new home prices went up an average of 3.8% per year.
From January 2003 to January 2007, median new home prices went up an average of 8.8% per year.
Things started to get really crazy toward the end of 2003.
These are all nominal numbers.
We certainly caught a whiff of a very strong housing market in 2003, but only saw prices reach what we considered bubble levels as we got into 2004 and 2005.
Never-the-less, HA continues to crow about how they build homes to be sold for less than $200k all the time.
He should be able to tell us just how many homes the company he works for builds each year to be sold for under $200k. That shouldn’t be a state secret. Others who build homes publish this data freely and regularly.
By the way, if you are staring from a finished lot (infrastructure already built), then yes, you can build a home for less than $200k.
In other words, if your home washed away in a flood, or was knocked down by a tornado, you can rebuild for less than $200k.
HOWEVER, if you are building a new subdivision with the starting point as raw land, the story is much different when you add in all the costs to build the finished lot.
I think the year was 2004.
Most of us won’t post too much detail about how much business the company we work for does. I don’t think the answer to your question matters anyway, you are just teasing.
I suppose I find the proposal that the biggest housing bubble in our history started in 2004 and peaked one year later preposterous. You are not alone though. I think we have discussed this before.
No secret Rental_Fraud. Just another one of your ploys.
You are all missing something much bigger than the housing bubble.
It’s called monetary debasement, and you can thank The Fed for it.
That has to be factored into current prices.
Plus, in our now-global housing market, desirable areas of the US are now being bid up by the richest people in the world.
That, also, has to be factored into current prices.
I’m not saying that there is not a bubble, but there are different factors at play.
Printing and warehousing currency in the tens of trillions has zero net effect.
With housing demand at 20 year lows, there is no “global housing market”.
You have alot to learn my friend.
“I suppose I find the proposal that the biggest housing bubble in our history started in 2004 and peaked one year later preposterous. You are not alone though. I think we have discussed this before.”
No.
The we were starting at close to (at?) a cyclical peak in 2003. And then the credit opened up, causing a massive run-up starting at the end of 2003, and home prices peaked in what, the summer of 2007?
However, momentum had started to slow in 2006 in terms of on the ground housing demand.
…. and housing was already inflated 100%+ over long term trend by 2003 Rental_Fraud.
This is cool! Check out how this Delta flight is dodging weather cells over Missouri.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL1686
“There is no recovery. There is only the bond bubble. And everything has been done to prop it up because when it bursts (as all bubbles do), entire countries (including the US) will go bust.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/proof-positive-there-has-been-no-recovery
“Part of this money went towards expanding the already bloated government with endless programs and social spending. But a significant portion of it went towards rolling over old debt. The US never had an extra $5 trillion lying around to pay off its old debts to begin with. And so it has been issuing new debt to cover for old debt that was coming due.”
“The US never had an extra $5 trillion lying around to pay off its old debts to begin with.”
Or to pizz away in the Middle East.
So, how long until China’s stock market bubble bursts?
I’m going to say less than a month.
A story on Bloomberg notes that the stock market has more than doubled in less than a year, and is currently trading at 84x earnings. And we all know those earnings are from cooked books.
“markets can still irrational a lot longer than u can remain solvent.”
I’ve been waiting almost 2 yrs, lost aver 60% on the China crash bet. Play money. Last time it crashed, big $$ was to be made so I wait it out. Only $2500 bet.
dollar cost avg we are certainly a lot closer to a crash than two years ago. Don’t give up on that trade. Add to your position. you will never time it perfectly but you know the valuations are ridiculous.
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3461367/asset-management-equities/reits-could-be-a-smart-bet-in-a-higher-rate-environment.html#.VYC6r_lVhBd
An article on how REITs fare in a rising rate environment. Of course they are talking their book. Even so, the backup data they provide should be easily debunkable if false.
Is the Fed Reserve gonna take away the punchbowl this autumn? Seems like low interest rates can be worked around if money actually can trickle down into people’s pockets via loans or asset inflation. I noted before that there has been an explosion of land being scraped and developed for dwellings and businesses in my parts. The Pollyana side of me wants to believe that this is just the beginning of a growth cycle again. I mean, there has to be demand for these buildings. Now, if interest rates get raised maybe 25 basis points this fall, how much dampening will that have?
It’s a moot point. Housing demand is at record lows for one simple reason; Prices are grossly inflated.