Bits Bucket for June 18, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Will the Greek government’s gambit to threaten a pullout from the EU spur bailout authorities into action?
ft dot com > GlobalEconomy >
EU Economy
Last updated: June 18, 2015 7:47 am
Varoufakis predicts no deal at eurozone finance ministers meeting
John Aglionby in London, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Kerin Hope in Athens
Greece’s Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis reacts as he speaks to journalists after a meeting at the OECD in Paris, France, June 17, 2015. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Wednesday he and his euro zone counterparts were unlikely to reach a aid-for reforms deal at a meeting on Thursday. Varoufakis said Greece and its international lenders needed to strike a deal at the level of heads of state and government. REUTERS/Charles Platiau
©Reuters
Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, said he does not expect to reach a deal to resolve his country’s five-month stand-off with bailout creditors when eurozone finance ministers hold a crunch meeting on Thursday.
Unless Greece agrees economic reforms with its creditors by the weekend, officials believe time will run out for Athens to receive a desperately needed €7.2bn remaining in its bailout programme before it expires in two weeks.
Without the funds, the government will probably default on its debts, a move that the country’s central bank has warned would trigger a “painful course” leading to exit from the eurozone and “most likely” from the EU.
Michel Sapin, France’s finance minister, said on Thursday it would be a “total catastrophe for Greece” if it leaves the single currency.
“We will fight till the end to find an agreement with Greece,” he said on France Info radio.
When asked by reporters in Paris whether ministers would reach a deal, Mr Varoufakis said on Wednesday: “I do not believe so.”
“Tomorrow we will set the scene for what we consider to be our political and moral duty, and that is to reach an agreement very, very quickly with our partners and the institutions,” he said, adding that only heads of government could break the deadlock.
Mr Sapin’s warning echoes that made by Greece’s central bank on Wednesday, which urged the country’s leaders to agree to a deal offered two weeks ago or risk an “uncontrollable crisis” that could force Athens out of the EU.
…
Yawn.
So true, Eropeans just talk and talk.
If ever a squeeze time comes they will make a deal.
Facking loser Euros!
Bank of Greece issues grave warning of Grexit as British government prepares for fallout - as it happened 17 June 2015
Protests planned across Greece tonight, as rumours of a compromise deal swirl
Greek Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis (L) listens to Prime Minister addressing his MP’s and ministers at the Greek Parliament Photo: Reuters
By Isabelle Fraser
6:13PM BST 17 Jun 2015
• Greek chief negotiator: we can’t pay without bailout, but will strike a deal if it is “economically viable”
• Protests planned across Greece tonight amid rumours of a compromise deal
• British government accelerating preparations for Grexit as Bank of Greece describes need for a deal as a “historical imperative”
…
fastFT
EconomyYellen: Greece failure risks disrupting markets
13 hours ago
A failure of Greece and its creditors to reach an agreement risks a disruption to global financial markets and the US economy, Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has warned.
At a press conference in Washington, Ms Yellen said:
This Sept./Oct. may suck as bad as they did in ‘08.
Grab yer gun and some popcorn.
Nah…this time it’ll all be contained.
IMF takes harder line on Greece
June 17 2015 at 09:24am
By AFP
REUTERS IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde
Athens - The International Monetary Fund has lost patience over Greece and is making it known.
The crisis lender over the past few days has publicly laid out its demands for Greece in the long-running fight over bailout funding, but also did the same with the Europeans, showing a new frustration with their hard line.
Until now, the IMF had left it to its European partners to lead “constructive talks” with Athens over what the country should be required to do to get another 7.2 billion euros ($8.1 billion) in bailout funding.
Greece needs the money to avoid falling in default on its loans, but it has refused to agree to more tough reforms and austerity measures required by the IMF, European Central Bank and European Commission.
But the series of fruitless meetings in Brussels has pushed the Fund to change its tone under the impetus of its managing director, Christine Lagarde, fed up with the hesitation of the Europeans and Athens’ intransigence.
The first sign of this came from IMF spokesman Gerry Rice, who last week was uncharacteristically frank when others were suggesting progress in the negotiations.
“There are still major differences between us in most key areas,” Rice told reporters.
“There has been no progress in narrowing these differences recently. Thus we are well away from an agreement.”
…
imf is 20% uncle sucker funded
Draghi Rules Tested by Greece as ECB Mulls Bank Solvency
by Jeff Black
June 16, 2015 — 4:01 PM PDT
Mario Draghi’s mantra that the European Central Bank is a rules-based institution is being tested to breaking point by Greece.
The question of whether Greek lenders still meet the solvency and collateral requirements for the 83 billion euros ($93 billion) of emergency funding they currently receive is becoming ever more pressing. The ECB president, who will head a meeting of his Governing Council on Wednesday, warned this week that a positive answer can’t be taken for granted.
The Greek government’s struggle to unlock bailout funds to pay its debts automatically casts a shadow over the nation’s banks, whose financial health is tied to state guarantees on their assets. The dilemma for Draghi is that curtailing central-bank liquidity could tip the country toward capital controls and political turmoil.
“Greek authorities may depict capital controls or the closure of the Greek banks as unjustly imposed upon them,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London. “We doubt that the ECB will do anything without there being clear political backing.”
As euro-area finance ministers prepare to meet in Luxembourg on Thursday, the likelihood that Greece will be able to bridge its differences with its creditors is dwindling. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who will chair the meeting, told reporters in the Hague on Wednesday that while a deal is still possible, “it’s up to the Greeks now to come up with a number of alternative proposals.”
…
Greece is boring
Greece is a proxy for Portugal, Spain and Italy, and a tiny little nail in the coffin of Europe’s creaky financial system.
There is only one country in that part of the Mediterranean that matters and that’s Israel you anti-semitic hater
port already stole everyones 401k
why are Italy’s bond rate so low?
What should Italy’s bond rate be and how did you determine that?
Yeah I’m yawning myself. I almost hope that Greece exits the EU just to teach the world bankers and their $40 hot dogs a lesson about derivatives. By the way, which way did the banks bet on these Greek derivatives? Did they bet on Greece succeeding, in which case they’ll go bankrupt trying to pay. Or did they bet on Greece failing, in which case they’ll get mad because they can’t collect?
Either way, they’ll give each other raises and promotions.
Just.print.more. Nothing I’ve seen in the last few years to show this can’t work forever.
Is the oil price crash having a discernible effect on oil-dependent economies?
Norway Cuts Rate to Record Low as Oil Slump Rears Recession Risk
by Saleha Mohsin
June 18, 2015 — 1:04 AM PDT
Norges Bank cut interest rates for a second time since oil prices collapsed to avoid a recession in western Europe’s biggest crude producer.
The overnight deposit rate was cut by 25 basis points to a record low 1 percent, the Oslo-based central bank said. The decision was forecast by 16 of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while one saw no change. The bank signaled it may cut rates further.
“The current assessment of the outlook for the Norwegian economy suggests that the key policy rate may be reduced further in the course of autumn,” Norges Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a statement. He’s scheduled to speak at a press conference at 10:30 a.m. in the Norwegian capital.
After cutting in December to mitigate the risks of an oil induced slowdown, Olsen kept rates unchanged in March and May, but signaled a 100 percent chance of more easing by June. A slowdown in Norway is coinciding with a return to extreme easing in neighboring regions. The European Central Bank is buying debt to add to its stimulus, while policy makers in Sweden and Denmark have cut rates well below zero.
“We’re going to see an intensified slowdown in the oil related industries, which will damp mainland GDP growth and push unemployment upwards,” Frank Jullum, chief economist for Danske Bank A/S in Oslo, said before the rate decision. Growth in Norway will start to stabilize at the end of this year, he said.
…
Slumping oil prices pushing Canada to the brink of recession
June 16, 2015, midnight
Economy
By Jock Finlayson
Economists define a “recession” as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP. We are halfway there
There is a cloud over the country’s economic outlook for 2015.
Statistics Canada reports that real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 0.6% annualized rate in the first three months of the year, considerably worse than even pessimistic forecasters were expecting. It is clear that the slump in global oil prices is taking a measurable toll on Canada’s energy-centric economy.
Non-residential investment plunged by 15% in January, February and March, led by sharp cuts in oil and gas industry capital spending. In recent years, the energy sector has accounted for more than one-third of all non-residential investment, as well as for roughly one-quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports.
So the downturn in oil and natural gas markets is dampening overall private-sector capital outlays and weighing heavily on Canada’s export receipts.
Harsh winter weather also played a role in the gloomy first-quarter report. Consumer spending came in below expectations, as many Canadians apparently decided to stay indoors.
Economists define a “recession” as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP. We are half way there, and some recent economic data signals further softness in April, May and June.
…
U.S. Ousts Russia as Top World Oil, Gas Producer in BP Data
by Rakteem Katakey
June 10, 2015 — 2:01 AM PDT
Updated on June 10, 2015 — 6:10 AM PDT
Four pumpjacks are silhouetted as they operate at the site of an oil well outside Williston, North Dakota, U.S., on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2015.
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
The U.S. has taken Russia’s crown as the biggest oil and natural-gas producer in a demonstration of the seismic shifts in the world energy landscape emanating from America’s shale fields.
U.S. oil production rose to a record last year, gaining 1.6 million barrels a day, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy released on Wednesday. Gas output also climbed, putting America ahead of Russia as a producer of the hydrocarbons combined.
The data showing the U.S.’s emergence as the top driller confirms a trend that’s helped the world’s largest economy reduce imports, caused a slump in global energy prices and shifted the country’s foreign policy priorities.
“We are truly witnessing a changing of the guard of global energy suppliers,” BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale said in a presentation. “The implications of the shale revolution for the U.S. are profound.”
…
I pointed out yesterday that it was bogus because it counts ngls as oil.
Double yawn on Oil, same as Greece. Both appear to be tempest in teapot stories with lots of dire predictions but no reckoning ever.
It’s great to see one debt-stricken country help another one.
Markets More: Venezuela China Oil Asian Markets
Venezuela is about to get a $5 billion loan from China for oil
Reuters
Alexandra Ulmer and Deisy Buitrago, Reuters
Jun. 16, 2015, 8:50 PM
Venezuela oil
REUTERS/Carlos Garcia RawlinsAn oil tank is seen at PDVSA’s Jose Antonio Anzoategui industrial complex in the state of Anzoategui April 15, 2015.
MARACAIBO (Reuters) - Venezuela will receive a loan of $5 billion from China in the coming months for crude oil projects, a director at state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela said on Tuesday.
China has become Venezuela’s principal financier over the last decade, lending more than $46 billion to be repaid in oil.
“It is being discussed right now and will come within a few months,” Orlando Chacin, vice president of exploration and production at PDVSA, said in an interview.
The resources should help the oil company as it handles the severe impact of the drop in crude prices.
Oil makes up 96 percent of the country’s foreign income.
The funds seemed to be part of an overall $10 billion loan a PDVSA source earlier this year said Venezuela had negotiated with the Development Bank of China, half for oil projects.
“They are for many projects,” Chacin said. He said many of those would be in the vast Orinoco Belt, which contains most of Venezuela’s crude, but did not offer more details.
Venezuela is looking to increase crude production in the Orinoco region to offset declines in other traditional areas and to stimulate its struggling economy.
The country’s international reserves hit 12-year lows this month as the economy suffers a recession, high inflation and shortages of basic goods.
…
China is going to be repaid with $46 Billion worth of oil, right when oil prices are falling, and by Venezuala of all countries? Wait until Venezuala nationalizes all the oil projects China paid for, then defaults on the loans.
That almost looks deliberate on the part of China. Paying in oil at low prices means that China is going to get a lot of barrels for their money. Build up some ghost tank farms next to those ghost cities, and 20 years from now China will be sitting pretty like those guys in Mad Max.
Yes, that is why I put you in the intelligent liberal camp, it must get very lonely there.
I often picture Lola as the feral boy from the Road Warrior movie. Throwing his boomerang and growling at the bigger scarier warriors.
Wait until Venezuala nationalizes all the oil projects China paid for, then defaults on the loans.
Somehow I do not think China would go quietly into the night if that would happen.
There is history of countries defaulting and then having their stuff and assets taken by force.
Exactly or the people that are refusing to pay start disappearing at night.
I don’t think even Venezuala is too worried about the Chinese army.
I don’t think even Venezuala is too worried about the Chinese army.
The Chinese Navy just started building its second aircraft carrier.
The Chinese Navy has over 100 submarines.
In 10 years the Chinese Navy is predicted to have more ships than the US Navy.
They also have excellent Special Forces and cyber warfare units.
“That is an awful nice oil refinery and port you got there - a shame if something happened to to it…”
Wouldn’t China simply continue to extend-and-pretend and restructure the oil infrastructure debt until that same oil infrastructure delivers the desired quota of barrels of oil? Then China can allow the Venezuelans to default or die in the streets or disappear of the map, whatever. It’s a way of taking the assets not-by-force.
When is the last time a commodities trader touched an actual commodity? Kinda changes the game when China wants the actual oil, not some currency denominated string of bytes. How do you take your skim?
Are the Saudis sending a message to Obama, sign a deal with Iran and not only will we no longer work
with you to keep oil prices down to hurt the Russians, we will let Putin set the price above where it was last summer?
http://eaglefordtexas.com/news/id/153427/russia-saudi-oil-ministers-to-mull-cooperation-agreement/
“Chinese Navy”
They also have a lot of unmarried young men — the ones who can’t afford to buy a house.
Triple yawn on China.
Yawn X 3
Asia Markets
China startup stocks plunge as bubble fears grow
By Gregor Stuart Hunter and Chao Deng
Published: June 18, 2015 5:48 a.m. ET
The Shanghai composite index is headed for its worst week of the year.
China’s stock market slid Thursday, with highflying startup stocks suffering one of their worst days on record and analysts turning increasingly wary of what they see as a bubble in the country’s equities.
The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP, -3.67%) closed down 3.7% at 4785.36, while the smaller Shenzhen market fell 3.6%, extending a bout of volatility that began in late May.
…
Yawn.
Crow for dinner again tonight!?
The World Is Facing Its Longest Oil Glut in at Least Three Decades
by Grant Smith
June 15, 2015 — 4:00 PM PDT
Updated on June 16, 2015 — 2:35 AM PDT
Low Oil Prices Force Industry Efficiency: Skip York
The world is on the brink of the longest-lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable.
Record-Breaking Glut
Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were to keep pumping at current rates it would become the longest surplus since at least 1985 by the third quarter, the data show.
There are few signs the 12-nation group will cut back. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, will probably increase production to intensify pressure on U.S. shale drillers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts. OPEC’s supplies may be swollen further this year if Iran reaches a deal with world powers to ease sanctions on its exports, Commerzbank AG says.
“It seems to be taking longer for the oil surplus to clear, and, even without the return of Iran, IEA data indicates it could last for the rest of the year,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “Any expectations the oversupply will be gone by 2016 don’t look justified at this stage.”
…
Analysis: This oil glut is likely to be the longest in at least 30 years
Bloomberg
Published on: June 16, 2015
Last Updated: June 16, 2015 11:09 AM MDT
A worker waits to connect a drill bit on Endeavor Energy Resources LP’s Big Dog Drilling Rig 22 in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas.
Brittany Sowacke / Bloomberg
By Grant Smith
The world is on the brink of the longest- lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable.
Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were to keep pumping at current rates it would become the longest surplus since at least 1985 by the third quarter, the data show.
There are few signs the 12-nation group will cut back. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, will probably increase production to intensify pressure on U.S. shale drillers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts. OPEC’s supplies may be swollen further this year if Iran reaches a deal with world powers to ease sanctions on its exports, Commerzbank AG says.
“It seems to be taking longer for the oil surplus to clear, and, even without the return of Iran, IEA data indicates it could last for the rest of the year,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “Any expectations the oversupply will be gone by 2016 don’t look justified at this stage.”
…
4:07 pm ET
Jun 15, 2015
Commodities
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to an Oil Market Rebalance
By Christian Berthelesen
Hasan Jamali/Associated Press
As oil prices collapsed last fall and winter, conventional wisdom in the market held that the global glut of crude would stop growing in the second half of 2015 and then shrink as demand picked up, bringing the market back into balance.
Mid-year is now just two weeks away, but the expected re-balance is nowhere in sight. Two data points tell the story: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is continuing to produce well above its quota, and U.S. output is still rising even as the industry slashes infrastructure tied to production.
Price-reporting agency Platts said Monday that OPEC produced 31.1 million barrels a day of oil in May, its highest level since October 2012, echoing a finding last week by the International Energy Agency. That puts OPEC’s production 1.1 million barrels a day above its own quota and 1.8 million barrels a day over its estimate of demand for its own oil.
Meanwhile, the number of drilling rigs deployed in the U.S. fell last week for the 27th consecutive week and is now 60% lower than a year ago. But the U.S. Energy Department continues to raise its estimate of domestic production, which last week climbed to 9.6 million barrels a day – the highest level in more than four decades.
Analysts say the global oversupply of crude – the glut, if you will – is rising at a rate of about 2 million barrels a day. But the continued level of elevated production, rather than supply cutbacks and rising demand, is pushing back the point in time at which analysts think the once-expected re-convergence of supply and demand is supposed to happen.
“The second half of this year was supposed to be much tighter, providing an opportunity to burn off some of the huge volume of stock built up in the first half,” London brokerage PVM said in a note Monday. “This is not going to happen” if OPEC continues as-is, PVM said, adding the glut could keep growing at anywhere from 670,000 to 3.8 million barrels a day, based on various analyses.
Adds Commerzbank: “OPEC is currently producing 1 million barrels of crude oil per day more than will be needed in the second half of the year … It will therefore only be possible to reduce the oversupply if non-OPEC supply declines, through there is no indication for this to happen at the moment.” Though U.S. rigs have been idled, the bank notes: “The lower drilling activity has not yet resulted in any visible fall in U.S. oil production.”
…
It looks tempting!
GS propaganda to allow them to escape its short positions.
You should be eating it because 40 dollar oil is a distant memory.
Dan,
A globe awash in oil, falling crude prices and collapsing demand. What’s not to like?
Remember….. falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels raises everyone’s standard of living and is good for the economy.
Here is the thing to watch if you want to know where the price of oil is headed.
“China is the greatest construction boom and credit bubble in recorded history. An entire nation of 1.3 billion has gone mad building, borrowing, speculating, scheming, cheating, lying and stealing.”
“the flip-side of the China’s giant credit bubble is the most massive malinvesment of real economic resources—-labor, raw materials and capital goods—ever known.”
“China is on the cusp of the greatest margin call in history. Once asset values start falling, its pyramids of debt will stand exposed to withering performance failures and melt-downs.”
“Maybe Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate which went belly up last week is the final catalyst, but if not there are thousands more to come.”
These colorful words from Stockman March 31, 2014, right before oil fell 50%.
You think the dollar is going to shoot up another 25% or the Saudis and the U.S. are going to engineer more manipulation of the futures market? I do not see either one very likely.
Good point Dan.
Liquidate assets, retire debt and hold onto every dollar you’ve got. You’ll thank me later.
No, I think the explosion in demand for energy rests upon the explosion in construction and the credit to do it. I think it is unsustainable. It seems to have rolled over.
I am talking about $80 bbl future oil. Still headed there in six months?
Yes, everything continues to proceed according to what I believed. Brent was around 42 or 43 in February and now it is about $65, we are well over half way there in just four months and with six months left and oil companies now fracking less than there drilling, I still good about the projection.
their drilling
Speaking of non stories, anyone who listened to you pimp China’s stock market and ignored all the warnings fully deserves the arse pounding they are currently experiencing.
Most countries would kill for 7% growth, some azz pounding.
I’d don’t think anyone could sustain a 50% decline in GDP growth like China has gone through.
You should be eating it since 40 dollar oil is a distant memory and you were filling the board with stories on how oil was going back into the twenties. Those stories had no more validity than they ones you are posting today. BTW, speaking of eating crow, more signs of a recovering real estate market in China:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/More-cities-see-house-price-rise-in-May/shdaily.shtml
And remember….. Current prices of all items are inflated by multiples of production cost, including profit.
In fact, the Chinese buying into oil shows two things, (1) they continue to have more money than they now what to do with due to the large trade surplus (2) They feel the need to secure more resources to meet their increasing demand for those natural resources. Most of the oil stories really show that oil cannot be produced in adequate amounts at these prices so the industry is shutting down in high cost producing areas like Norway and Canada, hardly supportive of the belief that oil will stay at these levels let alone move down in price.
‘they continue to have more money than they now what to do with’
That’s why they buy stocks on margin.
If I may…
That’s why they buy stocks and houses on margin.
they continue to have more money than they now what to do with’
That’s why they buy stocks on margin.
They buy stocks on margin the same reason the boys at places like GS buy on margin, to increase leverage, not saying it is smart to do at this point but it certainly does not mean you do not have money.
These people need more Peaking Duck.
“The plant is run by Shenzhen Artigas Clothing & Leatherware Co. Ltd., which is owned by Lever Style Inc., based in Hong Long. The parent company supplies clothing to Armani Exchange and Calvin Klein and has been shifting factory work out of China to cheaper destinations in Southeast Asia, like Vietnam.”
“The Chinese-language Radio Free Asia said 300 of the workers have been on a hunger strike since June 13. Workers reportedly began a sit-in last Thursday inside the facility to keep the factory equipment from being removed.”
http://www.ibtimes.com/hunger-strike-uniqlo-clothing-supplier-china-highlights-industrys-search-lower-labor-1969393
I’m surprised some of these screwed-over Chinese workers aren’t dusting off their Little Red Books about how to make revolution against tyrannical overlords.
And why are they moving because wages are soaring in China. Hardly a terrible story for the country as a whole. And why are wages soaring because overall there is a labor shortage in China and most workers can find jobs which add more value thus they pay more, once again not bad for the country as a whole.
“The Chinese-language Radio Free Asia said 300 of the workers have been on a hunger strike since June 13. Workers reportedly began a sit-in last Thursday inside the facility to keep the factory equipment from being removed.”
Title: “China Deflating”
“a labor shortage in China”
Rising unemployment because of a labor shortage!
Don’t let the facts get in the way of your hopes:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/21/china/labour-shortage-looming-china
An 18 month old article before the China collapse doesn’t do much good for your credibility Dan.
Key excerpt, btw the thing with China is that it offends both the left and right, the left hates it because not only did it turn from communism due to turning away it has been very successful, the right hates it because it still has a communist government in charge, it is an ideological orphan:
However, the dramatic double digit increase in Chinese migrant workers’ wages are an ominous sign that the world’s most populous nation is about to run out of surplus labour. This proposition may seem incredulous but it is happening.
It has been widely reported that Chinese factory owners have complained about labour shortages as well as wage increases. In Guangdong, the industrial heartland of China, skilled technicians can fetch as much as 100,000 Yuan a year or $18,000.
The labour shortage pressure is borne out by the statistics. Yang Zhiming, Vice-minister of Human Resources and Social Security, told media the country’s migrant worker force increased only 2.4 per cent nation-wide last year and actually shrank 0.2 per cent in eastern coastal provinces.
The country’s one child policy, first introduced in 1979, has played an important role in causing the labour supply to slow down. The population of working age people is expected to grow at 0.7 per cent a year until 2015 and then shrink by 0.1 per cent a year until 2025.
So China is about to or has already reached the so-called “Lewis turning point”, which means the country will run out of surplus labour and wages will increase. The theory behind it was first expounded by Sir Arthur Lewis, a Nobel laureate in economics from St Lucia, who argued that a developing country with ‘surplus” or underemployed labour could expand the industrial force for years without causing wages inflation, because employers can tap into vast reserves of cheap labour in the countryside.
Consider the hundreds of millions employed in wasteful enterprises such as building empty residential projects or useless ships. When the credit expansion stops, these folks will be looking for jobs.
I posted a link just a few days ago that was very current and projected wage growth for this year at 8%, 5.7% I believe after inflation. I need to run I may not post again today.
China doesn’t have any money, all it has are Treasury’s.
Key excerpt from the link that seems to be stuck in cyberspace:
In the existing home market, 37 cities recorded price increases from a month earlier, an increase of nine from April. Five cities saw prices remain unchanged while another 28 suffered setbacks, compared to eight and 34, respectively, in the previous month, the bureau said.
On an annual basis, prices continued to drop in all cities except Shenzhen, where a 7.7 percent annual rise was recorded for new homes. In the existing home market, meanwhile, Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai were the only three gainers, where prices rose 9.1 percent, 3.5 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, from same period a year ago, the bureau said.
There are no buyers at grossly inflated levels. Not in China… not in the US.
Remember this…
US Housing Demand Plunges To 20 Year Low
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqSztKilps8/VFlPKlr52JI/AAAAAAAAhKU/v5oS41S-y0s/s1600/MBANov52014.PNG
No more pre-China collapse 18 month old articles Dan.
Here’s something published this month. Relevant.
“China Deflating; Japanese Yen Breaking Down”
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/albert-edwards-yen/
Is it safe to ignore the Fed’s suggestion they will raise rates later this year?
History says to ignore the Fed’s interest-rate chatter
Published: June 17, 2015 10:17 a.m. ET
By Simon Maierhofer
Past fads: Sideburns, bell bottoms, tie-dye, fanny packs, PDAs and MySpace.
Current fads: Selfies and a fascination with interest rates.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting again this week (Tuesday, Wednesday), and their take on interest rates will be the VIP issue of the week. Investors are afraid that rising rates will be a wet blanket for stocks.
But today’s fad is tomorrow’s embarrassing habit, and historical evidence suggests that it’s actually totally OK to ignore the Fed’s interest-rate chatter. It’s just noise, not even backed by facts.
…
Just last week, someone here thought it rather incredulous that someone frequenting the HBB (me) didn’t care much about mortgage rates.
Real news is that which is occurring yet few people are discussing. The interest-rate chatter of the past three years is precisely that, just chatter. All the chatter is just the means by which the Fed is trying to keep a lid on things - which in itself is hardly news to anyone of average IQ.
Keep an eye on derivatives, folks.
Why would they deliberately crash the housing market and further bankrupt the government by raising rates?
These cats want to be popular, ya dig?
Good point. More than anything, central banking these days is a popularity contest, with rock star status as the pinnacle of success. Lucrative post-appointment speaking engagements are sure to follow.
Bainbridge Island, WA Housing Prices Fall 5%
http://www.movoto.com/bainbridge-island-wa/market-trends/
do u have house envy?
Stick with the data. Data my friend.
Carrollton, TX Housing Prices Fall 6%
http://www.movoto.com/carrollton-tx/market-trends/
Envy. Some may remember I assisted a person with a 1031 exchange spring 2014. The CPA administering the exchange told me to identify (make offers) on a basket of properties so that if some fell through we would still spend the total and achieve the tax savings. On one house I offered $40k. The agent told me the offer was so ridiculous there would be no counter offer. Yesterday the UHS website sent me an email informing me that this property had a price reduction. $39.9k. Another investor I work with is contemplating making an offer this morning. Care to guess how insulted the seller is going to be this morning?
Their level of rage today depends if you elect to rescind the former offer and resubmit it at 60%.
https://goo.gl/JkUrTx
where are you finding homes for 40k? Must be a very rough area.
LOWBALL them. How about 30k?
A 75% offer isn’t “lowball” Poet. Not remotely close.
I would lowball u for sure. 25% on a good day.
Don’t take the data personal Poet.
Arvada, CO Housing Prices Fall 10%
http://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/
where are you finding homes for 40k?
Ben put a link to Hubzu in today’s other thread.
They are handyman specials, and many in semi-rural areas on 0.5+ acre. Good website to play in if you have a trusted contractor and want to go Oil City.
…. and coming to your town.
And if they’re “handy man specials” as you characterize, they’re not worth but $12k-18k.
HA, the handyman specials in my town, and any other town near jobs, were snapped up five years ago. Salvageable burb houses were fixed up and flipped. Groups of blighted urban infill houses — perhaps sited next to an old corner store with a gravel parking lot — were demolished for high-rise f-ing floating boxes of air.
You are probably right that the structures are worth under $20K. The value is in the land and the existing hookups. It’s almost better to demolish the house and order a pre-fab from Connecticut Valley that can be retrofit onto the existing foundation. Salvage the old house materials for shops and chicken coops.
It’s materials! nope
It’s labor! nope.
It’s the land! Nope.
Sorry Donk. You paid a grossly inflated price for a depreciating handyman special.
This makes my day. Thanks, Ben.
May the property sell for $35K or less.
It isn’t just the buyers that are irrational. Sellers do this all of the time. They get emotional and forget it is a business transaction. When I hear that someone is “so offended” they refuse to counter, I immediately question their character. And intelligence.
We sometimes like to go to Chinatown (nyc) before going out to lunch in little Italy. We take the kids, shop for cheap junk, and the kids enjoy spending a few dollars of their allowance. It is a soup of cultures and pretty interesting to haggle for things in the shops, esp. on Sunday mornings. But there is a section that isn’t Chinese. The Chinese always haggle, sometimes they would snort, turn away, shake their heads, but they did it for show…and they built haggling into their price. We didn’t haggle on everything. But they would often knock a dollar off a 4 dollar trinket (that was worth a dollar, mind you) and it was fun.
But another section/group gets offended and will literally snatch the item out of your hand and tell you to go away, not come back. After this happened more than once, leaving my kids shocked by the bad behavior, we began avoiding that strip. They were not Chinese and the whole thing felt very hate-ful.
I had to explain to the kids that that some cultures have strong and even angry views about deal-making, and that they would rather cut their nose off to spite their face than make a deal with someone, esp someone they decide they don’t like.
I digress, but my point is that sellers of real estate, even if they are generally sound-minded individuals, become emotional and irate and a little scary–to their own detriment. They throw the baby out with the bathwater and end up talking less than they had to, because real estate that sits reeks of a death kiss. I had to take a LOT less on our last house sale, my husband blew a couple of deals b/c he was too emotionally invested, and emotion should not keep you stuck on a sinking ship. Jump while you can.
I’m moving next week so might go to Chinatown this weekend for one last hurrah, but my kids are starting to outgrow it.
Go to Arthur Ave instead. It’s the real little italy. Mulberry St is a joke.
Wow, thx, after all these years, this is the first I’d heard of Arthur Ave. I just watched a video about it on youtube, I would to try something new in ny before we leave. I always knew Mulberry St. was a little cheesy, but still, we have fun daytripping almost anywhere.
We went to Brooklyn a few weeks ago, they had crazy lines around the block at every brunch place. Hung over hipsters playing on their iphones. Seriously, a good small business plan there. Brunch.
Yes! I love these stories. All else being equal I’d go $25k, tops.
the New York Times
The Go Times.
New York City is the last place you’ll want to be when Go Time happens
I do not know if it would be the last place, it is competing with cities like Newark and Camden but it is high up on the list.
Because Newark and Camden have more black people living there, right?
Why don’t you just come out and admit that you hate n****** Dannyboy
Because they always rank very high in crime statistics. If Provo, Utah had a high crime rate, I would include it.
BTW Media, I do not think that Al Gore really enjoyed the Pope’s release on climate change:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/18/the-pope-puts-the-kibosh-on-carbon-credit-trading-calling-it-a-ploy/
Media here is why, so you can stop projecting:
http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Newark-New-Jersey.html
The Time for all young men to come to the aid of their Country.
You mean those inept unemployed man-children living in their single mom’s basements playing video games and watching porn? Yeah, they ain’t coming off the couch for nothing, especially not something as inconsequential as their country.
“You mean those inept unemployed man-children living in their single mom’s basements playing video games and watching porn?”
We reap what we sow.
Today’s young adult males have been told they are worthless for 20 years now.
A carefree no responsibility lifestyle with plenty of good food, legal recreational drugs, entertainment and free love ladies (due to the lowering of morals in the last couple of decades)?
Who is really winning there?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/youve-been-warned-calls-mandatory-national-service-americans-aged-18-28-have-begun
Serve who?
Additionally, it is women who will be supporting men via increased taxes upon women.
And, women live longer. So they’ll be paying more taxes longer.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-17/youve-been-warned-calls-mandatory-national-service-americans-aged-18-28-have-begun
Serve who?
Why have a draft? There’s no shortage of volunteers. And if you bring back the draft upper middle class Americans will start opposing wars, since their precious kids would have to fight them. That’s a job for the poors whose only other option is a menial, part time job.
That’s another lame article from zerohedge. Decades ago Sam Nunn, an actual senator introduced a national service bill that went nowhere. Now someone’s get all upset about something written by some journalist.
You mean those inept unemployed man-children living in their single mom’s basements playing video games and watching porn? Yeah, they ain’t coming off the couch for nothing, especially not something as inconsequential as their country.
Where I work, with one exception (an Indian dude with an arranged marriage) every young, under 35 engineer I know is SINGLE, which is not surprising as 70% of men under 35 are also single. Just over half of all adults are unmarried and 20% were never married. This is more than just obese neckbeards playing Xbox.
In a Pew poll, 40% of respondents said that marriage is becoming OBSOLETE.
+1
There is no unswallowing the Red Pill
“This is more than just obese neckbeards playing Xbox.”
The education here is fugg’n priceless. LOLZ!
The obvious solution to the problem is to bring in hundreds of thousands of Somali and Syrian refugees and to legalize tens of millions of illegal aliens.
————–
Many low-income Americans can’t even afford to rent
MarketWatch | June 16, 2015 | Quentin Fottrell, personal finance reporter
The poorest Americans, who can’t afford to buy property, are increasingly priced out of rentals.
There were only 28 adequate and available to rent homes for every 100 extremely low-income renters in 2013, down from 37 in 2000, according to the Urban Institute, a nonprofit and nonpartisan organization that focuses on social and economic policy. “This gap between supply and demand leaves 72% of the country’s poorest families burdened by the high cost of housing,” it found. Extremely low-income renters are households with incomes at or below 30% of the median income in that region.
Not one county in the U.S. has enough affordable housing for all these renters. Among the 100 largest counties, the number of affordable rental homes ranges from eight per 100 in Denton County, Texas, to 51 in Suffolk County, Mass. This regional disparity is partly due to federal assistance not keeping pace with population growth, says Erika Poethig, a director at the Urban Institute. Only nine of the 100 largest counties increased the number of affordable units for extremely low-income renters from 2000 to 2013….
That article is two days old and has already been posted here at least once
And?
I think it’s an article that should be posted here several times across several days (perhaps a week).
Very relevant.
Lord help you if you own a house in a long term democrat controlled city with “closed shop” public union goons.
——————–
Financial Fallout Mounts from Baltimore’s Riot
Townhall.com ^ | June 18, 2015 | Paul Dykewicz
Insured property damage caused by the recent rioting in Baltimore has hit $23.9 million and is destined to rise, especially with business interruption claims still unknown, according to the latest figures from the Insurance Information Institute.
The final toll of insured losses in the violence-ravaged city could grow well beyond the institute’s previous forecast of a minimum of $25 million before the full extent of the financial battering becomes clear. The fallout of the man-made disaster caused by out-of-control protestors is continuing to hurt businesses and tourist destinations through reduced numbers of patrons and revenues.
Non-profit organizations, such as museums and art galleries, still need to find ways to lure back school groups and other visitors who have opted not to venture into Baltimore due to lingering safety concerns in the wake of the riot. Post-riot attendance and revenues remain below normal at the Baltimore Zoo, the National Aquarium, the Maryland Science Center, the Walters Art Gallery and other attractions in the city, which reported 42 homicides in May, the deadliest month there in more than 40 years.
Baltimore police report that rioters looted more than 175,000 doses of prescription medication from 27 pharmacies and two methadone clinics in the city. Police Commissioner Anthony Batts responded that such a large amount of drugs could keep city residents high for a year and most likely contributed to a sharp jump in the number of shootings in Baltimore during May.
Destroyed during the riot by people who the city’s mayor described as “thugs” was a CVS Pharmacy at West North and Pennsylvania Avenue that was looted and burned so badly building inspectors condemned it. A Rite-Aid pharmacy on Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard in a neighborhood that really needed it also incurred severe damage.
Auto, homeowners and business insurance policies generally cover property losses caused by riots and civil commotions.
Homeowners’ policies pay to repair, or rebuild, an insured home if its structure is damaged or destroyed due to a riot or civil commotion, as well as to replace the homeowners’ personal belongings if they are damaged or stolen during the event. However, if a home is uninhabitable by the related damage, policyholders can file an additional living expenses (ALE) claim to finance temporary housing expenses until the residence has been repaired.
Donald Trump is going to rebuild the infrastructure at 1/3 the cost. This means doing away with public Union goons.
he will need to do away with the thieves and attorneys to do it that cheap. American workers like to take their sweet time, pace themselves.
Just talk….
The obvious solution to the problem is to bring in hundreds of thousands of Somali and Syrian refugees and to legalize tens of millions of illegal aliens.
If you voted Republicrat, this is what you voted for.
You talkin Chicago?
The residents of Palo Alto are not worried.
“…Palo Alto…”
Could go for a Kirk’s burger ’bout now.
Speaking of Go Time, this reported by real journalists at the Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/17/white-gunman-sought-in-shooting-at-historic-charleston-african-ame-church/
P.S. it’s the top headline on the Drudge Report right now
So then why are you posting it?
You know the rules.
There is only enough room for one Media Analyst on the HBB
Does the 2 in your name mean sloppy seconds?
Or posting 2 day old articles?
I can’t keep all these rules straight.
1. No posting from Drudge unless you are a liberal.
2. No posting articles over 24 hours old (unless you are a liberal?)
3. No quoting obama. Nothing is his fault.
4. It is all the fault of Bush
5. If you mention a certain someone’s name 3 times he magically appears like Beetlejuice or a breakfast cereal leprechaun.
I have donated more money to Rand Paul this year than you have 2brony
You should grow a pair and run away from the Sheldon Adelson plantation
Down, down Bush!
Up, up Saddam!
Hell, if we’re gonna bash Bush why not go back to the first one?
We are all independents not “liberals nor neo-cons,” just smart and we dont drink the kool aid.
The gun grabbers will be salivating.
+1
Michael Bloomberg is flipping through his Rolodex right now looking for some elections to buy
MOLON LABE
The spark just hit the tinder. G’bye, Charleston. And maybe a few other cities.
My guess is they never find the gunman, but they’ll keep reporting him as white. From the fuzzy pictures, it’s hard to tell what he is.
Perhaps he’s transracial?
Maybe if he’s white, he can claim he’s black, then charge them with racial discrimination.
Or, if he’s black, he can claim he’s white, and charge them with reverse discrimination.
He’s been identified.
yep, just saw that. ugh.
Weird, though. The live shot of the guy being perp-walked looks nothing like the mug shot which only resembles the surveillance video in the hair.
I should have known better. Yes, they “found” the gunman. Another “lone” gunman on the order of James Holmes and Adam Lanza, another “disturbed” young white man. Check for SSRIs and if he met with any strangers prior to the shooting.
And a heavy user of meth and psychology drugs.
And his idiot dad gives him a gun for his birthday.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he had some serious blanks in his memory, from shortly before he entered the church until the point when he was being manhandled by the cops 340 miles away. Nice touches there with the Confederate Flag license plate, Rhodesian and South African jacket patches. Kid like that wouldn’t even know what Rhodesia was. Where’s the swastika?
Oh,oh and what he supposedly yelled at the congregation, about you’re raping our women and taking over, you’ve got to go. Please. As one wag over at Zero Hedge said, sounds like he confused the black congregation with a bunch of illegals from south of the border.
I don’t doubt the guy had some issues with people of color, but I also don’t doubt he had some serious “help” in this incident.
This kid looks like he is on some type of meds.
Absolutely, you KNOW he is. Interesting how there always seems to be a connection between these mass shootings and meds.
But is that EVER discussed? No. Because Big Pharma wouldn’t like it.
Only bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can solve the affordable housing problem…
—————————-
California’s Affordability Crisis May Be a Voter Issue
RCM | 06/18/2015 | Carson Bruno
In the recently released May 2015 Golden State Poll, just 14 percent of Californian adults living in the Bay Area, Central Valley, and Southern California think one of the three state-level affordable housing policies tested would do the most to reduce the cost of purchasing a home.
It is clear that while Californians do recognize the breadth of the affordability problem - 69 percent describe their area’s housing market as expensive for the house you get - they necessarily don’t feel the need to pressure their state leaders to do much. This, unfortunately, means Sacramento is unlikely to take the problem seriously. And that could have major economic implications for the state.
And the Silicon Valley-Bay Area region is the hardest hit by the affordability crisis. According to Zillow, San Francisco metro’s April 2015 home value index was $738,200 - over 4 times the national value and up over 10 percent from last year. In the San Jose metro area, the situation is even worse; the median list price is almost 5 times the national value, up almost 12 percent from April 2014. And for both metro areas, the April 2015 values represent new peaks, representing the only two California metro areas examined by Zillow that have surpassed their previous peaks.
For the many who cannot afford homeownership, the Silicon Valley-Bay Area region is just as unattainable for renters. According to Zillow, the San Jose and San Francisco metro area’s rent index was $3,287 per month and $3,162 per month, respectively - 2.4 and 2.3 times the national index. And they are only getting worse increasing almost 13 percent and 15 percent since last year.
I can’t imagine why any state government (or federal government) would seek to solve the “affordability” problem.
High home prices = higher tax take.
Higher tax take = secure employment and raises for those employed by government.
Where’s the incentive?
It’s not as if anyone is threatening to ram a pitchfork through the aortas of any government employees.
The Fed’s continued Keynesian lunacy and debasement of the dollar is making precious metals an increasingly attractive safe haven.
http://www.kitco.com/market/
China looking more wobbly as freight index (one of the few reliable Chinese data sets) continues to tank.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/17/shanghai-china-containerized-freight-index-collapses-top-carriers-maersk-price-war-to-form-global-shipping-oligopoly/
But it is for the children!!!!
————
San Bernardino: Broken City
Los Angeles Times | June 14, 2015 | Joe Mozingo
During several boom-and-bust waves, homeowners sold or lost their homes to investors and speculators. Some landlords see little return in keeping their properties well-maintained.
“They’ll bleed the property until it’s blighted and then desert it,” Morris says.
When the recession hit, San Bernardino’s foreclosure rate was 3.5 times the national average. It was inevitable: Only 46% of San Bernardino’s working-age residents have jobs — the lowest figure in the state for cities anywhere near its size. And so the statistical landslide built momentum as property and sales taxes fell by more than a third in recent years.
As the economy unspooled, the police and fire unions kept shoveling money into council members’ campaigns. In 2008, over Morris’ objections, the council gave them a generous gift. Employees of the Police and Fire Departments could retire at 50 years old and their pensions would give them 3% of their final pay for every year they had worked.
A fire battalion chief making $148,000, could retire at that age and collect $133,000 a year for life — with increases for cost of living.
By 2012 the city was spending 72% of its general fund on the Police and Fire Departments, mostly on salaries and pensions — compared to Los Angeles, which spends 59% of its general fund on those services. More than half the sworn fire personnel earn more than $150,000 a year according to city records.
All those San Berdoo crapshacks are probably back over their preBubble peaks so it’s all good once again.
“By 2012 the city was spending 72% of its general fund on the Police and Fire Departments, mostly on salaries and pensions — compared to Los Angeles, which spends 59% of its general fund on those services. More than half the sworn fire personnel earn more than $150,000 a year according to city records.”
FWIW, the ranks of Police and Fire fighters who are employed by San Bernardino likely don’t live within city limits, and it’s expensive to live in the better areas of southern California.
Nothing like taxing the hell out of your citizens so public union goons can live the good life and retire in style.
San Bernardino is competing with Bell after all.
But it is for the children!!!!
yea right out of the school budget to retired firemen.
Did u sheep get a hold of any fitbit shares today?
I only buy stock whose CEOs are friends of obama or have been bailed out by the government.
GE, GM, Facebook, Fannie, Freddie, Solyndra, Telsa, etc.
Halliburton seems to do well whenever there’s a war. Are there any wars that have been started recently?
The Halliburton Company (HAL) stock has done nothing for the last five years (except pay out of 1.6% div).
Only LOOSERS invest in this kind of stuff.
Hey - fitbit is up over 50% today!
Majority in U.S. wants Congress to ensure Obamacare subsidies, poll finds
Nearly two-thirds of Americans want Congress to ensure that residents in every state can receive insurance subsidies though the Affordable Care Act, according to a new national poll conducted as the Supreme Court prepares to decide a legal challenge that could strip away the subsidies in more than 30 states..
Asked whether lawmakers should pass a law “so that people in all states can be eligible for financial help,” just one-quarter of those surveyed said no, according to the poll by the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation.
The legal challenge, brought by conservative activists, argues that a strict reading of the health statute makes subsidies available only in states that established their own insurance marketplaces through the law, something that just 13 states and the District of Columbia did.
The rest of the states rely on the federal government to operate all or part of the marketplace for them.
The marketplaces — which opened in 2013 and now cover about 10 million people — allow Americans who don’t get health benefits at work to shop online among plans that must offer basic benefits and cannot turn away customers, even if they are sick.
Consumers making less than four times the federal poverty level — about $47,000 for a single adult and $97,000 for a family of four — qualify for subsidies.
The Obama administration, the law’s congressional architects and many outside legal experts say the law was clearly intended to make the subsidies available everywhere.
If the court backs the challengers, more than 6 million people are expected to become uninsured, throwing insurance markets in dozens of states into chaos.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-obamacare-court-poll-20150616-story.html
The majority of American also want some “common sense” restrictions on abortions too.
And the majority of Americans were against same sex marriages when the Supreme Court legalized them in several states,
Isn’t it great that we are a nation of polls and not laws?
The majority of American also want some “common sense” restrictions on abortions too.
That true, but it’s irrelevant.
Housing ladies housing!
Tualatin, OR Housing Prices Fall 5%
http://www.movoto.com/tualatin-or/market-trends/
“If the court backs the challengers, more than 6 million people are expected to become uninsured, throwing insurance markets in dozens of states into chaos.”
Like they aren’t in chaos already!!
What is chaos of chaos? order?
Morgan Stanley says buy health sector mutual funds .. because O care is shoveling them money.
Said trend should continue for years. No Link this was a real live human adviser who said he really couldn’t say that but yea that’s the way its playing out.
the Los Angeles Times
the Boston Globe
Seems that the locals are getting fed up, south of the border.
http://tinyurl.com/p4754qn
“check’s in the mail”
“I’ll pull out…….
“Everything we do is legal.”
“The floggings will continue, until we have some better morale around here…..”
That is a princely sum in Mexico for manual labor, comparable to what many college grads earn.
the Onion
The Kalamazoo Gazette?
Todays Kraytor Rhage song: Bullet with Butterfly Wings - Smashing Pumpkins
Man o man is Rush L. on a rant about Pelosi today - seems comrade Pelosi stepped in it - how is it and I paraphrase here from the article linky below that denying climate change and injuring God’s creation is not on the same plane as that of a human being…..Pelosi is so…..f….ing stoooopid she doesn’t even realize she tripped over her own tongue. Just amazing that fools like her can keep on bein re-elected and ‘lead’ in a manner that is in direct opposition to what the founders envisioned for the country. Yikes!!
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/245410-dems-obama-officials-praise-popes-climate-change-letter
Rush is ragging on Pelosi? Shocker! Thanks for the update.
Has Rush mentioned the church shooting yet? Because if a black guy had shot up a white church, I suspect he’d lead with that.
Speaking of which, where’s phony, our star race crime reporter on the church shootings?
Oh yeah, white perp, black victims. Not noteworthy for him, I guess.
Radio silence from our shepherds on that one.
Yep - he opened his show with the church shooting and leading up to his open he noticed the hate mail on twitter and FB and in the press was beyond reproach - this before the authorities caught the guy.
Nearing 60 years of age I have not seen the country so divided as it is now along many lines - The 60’s were bad for sure but this is heading toward madness - there is no purpose unlike the Civil Rights movements in the 60’s.
Rush’s argument only makes sense if you believe a fetus is God’s creation. A secular person might argue that the fetus is an evolutionary product of two people mixing DNA, while the Earth must be God’s creation because it was here before we were and people can’t make planets.
The moral issue is whether terminating a fetus is equivalent to killing someone like you and me. There’s an argument that can be made to that effect, but Rush and his ilk are too lazy to make it.
“It is not coincidence that as money got cheaper, Wall Street went nuts with leverage. And given that rates have generally been trending down for over 30 years, betting on cheap money became one of the easiest trades in the world.
And that is how you get to where we are today: with a global bond bubble with over $555 trillion in derivatives trading based on it.
This is the REAL issue with interest rates, NOT the economy. The Fed cannot and will not raise rates any significant amount without risking a Crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic (the CDO market which caused 2008 was a mere $50-60 trillion in size by comparison).”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-18/fed-now-officially-very-serious-trouble
So if the market pushes treasury yields up will the FED have to announce QE4 to keep yields down?
That’s how housing bubble happen.
It won’t matter Poet. Demand will continue to collapse.
I have a handyman special for sale. Good bones.
You are a handyman Poet. Check your muffler bearings.
Alexandria, VA Housing Prices Fall 10%
http://www.movoto.com/alexandria-va/market-trends/
BTATH sheep!
His Fetzer valves are shot!
Data Poet data!
Paradise Valley, AZ Housing Prices Fall 9%
http://www.zillow.com/paradise-valley-az/home-values/
a handyman would run circles around u. Paradise valley is where my people live.
Let the power of data enrage you Poet.
Newcastle, WA Housing Prices Fall 5%
http://www.movoto.com/newcastle-wa/market-trends/
u aren’t solving anything here. We have been in a bull market for 6 years. If you would have had some stones and took some risk you would be rolling in the cash .
But now we just listen to you ramble all day.
Let the power of data enrage you!
Mountain View, CA Housing Prices Fall 6%
http://www.zillow.com/mountain-view-ca/home-values/
“When the whole world brought its savings to the United States, people of mediocre skills and slack work habits could afford big houses, expensive vacations, and (at taxpayer expense) generous pensions. Why Americans expected to live well indefinitely on the largesse of foreign investors is a question for the psychiatrists, not the economists.” —Spengler, Asia Times
————–
We Might As Well Face It – America Is Addicted To Debt
TEC | 06/18/2015 | Michael Snyder
Corporations, individuals and the federal government continue to rack up debt at a rate that is far faster than the overall rate of economic growth. We are literally drowning in red ink from sea to shining sea, and yet we just can’t help ourselves. Consumer credit has doubled since the year 2000. Student loan debt has doubled over the course of the past decade. Business debt has doubled since 2006. And of course the debt of the federal government has doubled since 2007. Anyone that believes that this is “sustainable” in any way, shape or form is crazy. We have accumulated the greatest mountain of debt that the world has ever seen, and yet despite all of the warnings we just continue to race forward into financial oblivion. There is no possible way that this is going to end well.
Just the other day, a financial story that USA Today posted really got my attention. It contained charts and graphs that showed that business debt in the U.S. had doubled since 2006. I knew that things were bad, but I didn’t know that they were this bad. Back in 2006, just prior to the last major economic downturn, U.S. nonfinancial companies had a total of about 2.6 trillion dollars of debt. Now, that total has skyrocketed to 5.8 trillion…
If our paychecks were increasing at this same pace, that would be one thing. But they aren’t. In fact, real median household income is actually lower today than it was just prior to the last economic crisis.
So American households should actually be cutting back on debt. But instead, they are just piling on more debt, and the financial predators are becoming even more creative. In a previous article, I discussed how many auto loans are now being stretched out for seven years. At this point, the number of auto loans that exceed 72 months is at an all-time high…
The average new car loan has reached a record 67 months, reports Experian, the Ireland-based information-services company. The percentage of loans with terms of 73 to 84 months also reached a new high of 29.5% in the first quarter of 2015, up from 24.9% a year earlier.
When will we learn?
The crash of 2008 should have been a wake up call.
We should have acknowledged our mistakes and we should have started doing things very differently.
But instead, we just kept on making the exact same mistakes. In fact, our long-term financial problems have continued to accelerate since the last recession. Just look at what has happened to our national debt. Just prior to the last recession, the U.S. national debt was sitting at approximately 9 trillion dollars. Today, it is over 18 trillion dollars…
Our debt has grown so large that we will never be able to get out from under it. This is something that I covered in my recent article entitled “It Is Mathematically Impossible To Pay Off All Of Our Debt“. Because of our recklessness, our children, our grandchildren and all future generations of Americans are consigned to a lifetime of debt slavery. What we have done to them is beyond criminal. If we lived in a just society, a whole bunch of people would be going to prison for the rest of their lives over this.
During fiscal year 2014, the debt of the federal government increased by more than a trillion dollars. But in addition to that, the federal government has more than seven trillion dollars of debt that must be “rolled over” every year. In other words, the government must issue more than seven trillion dollars of new debt just to pay off old debts that are coming due.
The debt-fueled prosperity that we are enjoying now is not real. It is a false prosperity that has been purchased by selling future generations into debt slavery. We have mortgaged the future to make our own lives better.
“The crash of 2008 should have been a wake up call.”
It was for me. I gambled on some risky investments with cash before ‘08. Now I only save it and stay completely away from debt.
“The borrower is slave to the lender”
Repubs on abortion, marriage: we want big government to impose our religious values on everybody!
Repubs on income inequality and climate change: shut up Pope, keep religion out of government!
I cant think of a single person to put on the $10 bill.
Caitlyn???????
Unless Hamilton identifies himself as a black woman!
Greenspan.
This has debt donkey written all over it - what is wrong with this picture?
US SF WRAP-CommonBond prices debut student loan ABS
Reuters 6/18/2015 2:53 PM ET
Print Article
By Joy Wiltermuth
NEW YORK, June 18 (IFR) - Student loan lender CommonBond had no trouble Thursday selling its debut ABS, as investors showed they were keen to get in on a growing sector focused on A-list grad school borrowers.
A robust mix of insurance companies, money managers, banks, asset managers and hedge funds bought into the US$96.4m deal, allowing the issuer to trim spreads, sources told IFR.
With demand outstripping supply, CommonBond was able to dial back pricing of the sole 4.02-year class to Swaps plus 165bp from whispers in the high 100s.
Like Social Finance (SoFi), the only other marketplace lender to securitize its student loans portfolio, CommonBond caters to high-quality borrowers at top-flight universities.
CommonBond garnered a Baa2 rating from Moody’s Investors Service for the debut deal.
“Getting that grade from Moody’s was tremendous,” one banker said.
The deal, known as CBSLT 2015-A, was also rated A(high) by DBRS, but many investment managers still require ratings from one of the Big Three agencies before buying into a trade.
Its high quality loans to borrowers with 763 average credit scores and roughly US$152,000 annual incomes helped secure those ratings, according to Moody’s.
And it appears there are plenty more student loans out there for startups like SoFi, CommonBond and others to pick off.
Goldman Sachs in March estimated that some US$200m in student loan profit could drift outside of the banking system in the next three years.
“The bottom line is, there is a big origination opportunity for lenders like CommonBond,” the banker said. (Reporting by Joy Wiltermuth; Editing by Marc Carnegie)
the Miami Herald
China’s numbers still aren’t believable:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/6/17/china/data-black-hole-threatening-chinas-economy
From the article:
“As China goes through a period of painful adjustment, it is about time to end the unhealthy obsession with GDP growth and focus on more important issues such as unemployment. Beijing and the world need accurate data to know what is going on in the country so they can make appropriate economic policy and investment decisions.
Giving us a believable jobless rate will be a good starting point.”
The Chinese are ants and we are grasshoppers, and grasshopper we know how that story ends:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Ant-Financial-closes-private-placement/shdaily.shtml
I love grasshopper pie.
China does not use the local officials information because it knows they tend to inflate their numbers. If the GDP was calculated just using the numbers by the local officials it would be about 800 billion dollars larger. If you read the article it does not allege fraud by the national government just that the Chinese still do not have the ability to accurately calculate the numbers. They are using the same methodology that they always have used. This board just does not want to concede that China will grow by 7% this year using the methodology they always have used and which provides an apples to apples comparison to previous years. The majority of the board will do anything to avoid admitting I was right and they are wrong. If it is just fabrication why does China have to reduce its GDP growth year after year? Why did it fail to meet the 7.5% target they set last year? Why do they have to increase spending and cut interest rates to keep growth at 7%.
Does anyone really believe the US’s inflation or unemployment numbers? If you calculated either one the way they were calculated under Reagan or Carter, they would both be far higher. It is not a question of whether China’s numbers are accurate every month it is a question of whether there has been a systematic attempt to overestimate growth which has resulted in the Chinese GDP being seriously overestimated. Our CIA believes quite the opposite that the Chinese GDP as calculated by the Chinese government has seriously underestimated the size of the Chinese economy.
the numbers are a joke. I think china has learned a lot about ponzi schemes and asset inflation from the west.
It really seems like a race to see who can print the most cash and get other peoples stuff for free.
The new thing in China: Ghost Malls!
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/For-China-s-retail-sector-more-isn-t-merrier
Go figure - right?!!!
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20150617/BLOGS02/150619877/barney-frank-joins-signature-bank-board
the Cincinnati Enquirer
Nickle Ads
US gov not going to use Chinese owned Waldorf in NYC any more.
Looks like they are finally catching on.
place is probably bugged.
the Charlotte Observer
the Huffington Post
Scripts the narrative with several top headlines about the Charleston shooter, directly under which a link titled “The Truth About Living With A Micropenis”
And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links
Is Greece running out of options, or is a bailout still “in the bag”?
Business
Greece needs to seize ‘last opportunity’ for deal
5 hours ago
From the section Business
Greece needs to seize a “last opportunity” to reach a deal with its creditors, the head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem has said.
He was speaking after a meeting of European finance ministers that ended with no agreement on Greece’s debt.
Mr Dijsselbloem called on Greece to submit “credible” proposals in the coming days.
To help tackle the crisis, an emergency summit of leaders from Eurozone nations has been called for next Monday.
Mr Dijsselbloem highlighted that “very little time remains” as Greece’s current bailout programme runs out this month.
…
Europe fails to get a deal on Greece
By Ivana Kottasova and Mark Thompson @CNNMoney
What options are left for Greece and Europe?
Another deadline, another day without a deal.
European officials and the International Monetary Fund have failed to strike a deal on Greece’s bailout program, bringing the country one step closer to a dangerous default and potential exit from the eurozone.
“It is regrettable that too little progress has been made in the talks, and no agreement is in sight,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting of eurozone finance ministers.
After the talks collapsed, the EU called an emergency summit of leaders for Monday to “urgently discuss the situation of Greece.”
A new anti-austerity government in Greece has been trying to renegotiate the terms of its 240 billion euro bailout since early this year. Europe and the IMF have relaxed some of the conditions but say Greece must make substantial reforms to its economy in return for the remainder of the cash, and any new support.
Dijsselbloem suggested there was still time to find an agreement and extend the current bailout, but said the “ball is in Greece’s court.”
No deal in the next few days could be the beginning of the end, because account holders may start pulling more money out of Greek banks, fearing the worst. A deep financial crisis and capital controls would likely follow.
…
To be continued next week…
Economy Europe
Eurozone Summit Called After Ministers Fail to Reach Bailout Deal
Special summit of eurozone leaders called for Monday
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, right, gestures as she speaks with Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, during a Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg, on Thursday. Photo: Bloomberg News
By Viktoria Dendrinou and Gabriele Steinhauser
Updated June 18, 2015 6:33 p.m. ET
LUXEMBOURG—Eurozone leaders will try to clinch a deal on Greece’s flailing bailout at a hastily called crisis summit Monday, after finance ministers failed again to bridge the gap between Athens and its lenders.
The summit—eight days before Greece’s eurozone rescue runs out—will be one of the last chances to avert the specter of further economic meltdown for Greece and a messy exit from the eurozone.
After five months of fraught negotiations, “it is time to urgently discuss the situation of Greece at the highest political level,” said Donald Tusk, who presides over meetings of European leaders.
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the extra meeting was necessary “to restore a dialogue with adults in the room.”
The creditors—other eurozone countries and the IMF—want Greece to implement budget cuts, mostly through pensions and sales-tax increases, which they say are needed to restore the country’s long-term financial health.
“Those are measures that are not popular, they will not be easy to take and the big question is whether the Greek government is prepared to take them,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads up the so-called Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. “And if they’re not prepared to do that, then they are taking a big, big risk on the future of Greece.”
Athens says the measures demanded would push it further into recession.
During a lengthy presentation to his counterparts, Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, also warned that the consequences of a Greek exit from the eurozone were unpredictable.
“It is an event that will unleash destructive powers no one can tame,” he said, according to remarks published on his blog. “Citizens from all over Europe will target not the institutions but their elected finance ministers, their prime ministers and presidents.”
…
let them go bankrupt and lets move on. This bs is getting old. If they had a printing press it wouldn’t even be news.
This Greek story needs a buxom female v. faithful wife angle.
Lights, Camera, Action!
The Return of Adam Lanza! With the same haircut, no less. Must be some sort of inside joke.
False Flag? Dylann Roof’s Barely-Used Facebook Page Likely Created in 2015
Roof only has around 80 Facebook friends, many African-American and all added in 2015
by Kit Daniels | Infowars.com | June 18, 2015
The reported Facebook profile for Dylann Roof, the suspect in the Charleston, S.C., church massacre, was barely used and apparently created earlier this year, strangely enough.
Unlike the vast majority of Facebook users, Roof only had around 80 friends who were all added in 2015 and he apparently didn’t bother to upload a banner image, meaning that Roof – or whoever ran the account – put the bare minimum of effort into the profile.
In comparison, Facebook users between the ages of 18-24 have on average about 650 friends, meaning that the 21-year-old Roof was well below average.
And, oddly enough, Roof’s only Facebook image available to the public shows him scowling while wearing Rhodesia and apartheid-era South Africa flags and the image was uploaded on May 21, indicating that the account wasn’t randomly created by someone else after the church shooting.
It’s quite the coincidence that such a photo was publicly available on Facebook for media circulation, especially as it fits the Southern Poverty Law Center’s “domestic terrorist” narrative.
And it’s also strange that a racist such as Roof would have a large number of African-American friends on Facebook.
Also, it appears the George Soros-backed SPLC was the first to release a photo of Roof sitting on his car with a “Confederate States of America” front license plate in clear view.
The SPLC, a “legal advocacy organization” which routinely smears libertarians and conservatives by falsely conflating them with extremist groups, wasted no time to exploit the shooting to promote its agenda.
“The increase [in hate groups] has been driven by a backlash to the country’s increasing racial diversity, an increase symbolized, for many, by the presence of an African-American in the White House,” the SPLC said in a statement released Thursday.
In other words, the SPLC is trying to link Roof with non-racist conservatives who routinely criticize Obama’s presidency.
It’s been well-documented that Soros has been funding non-government organizations to fuel racial unrest in America, and even if Roof acted alone in this shooting, authoritarian leftists are already capitalizing on it to both attack the Second Amendment and advocate a federal takeover of state and local police.
“The increase [in hate groups] has been driven by a backlash to the country’s increasing racial diversity, an increase symbolized, for many, by the presence of an African-American in the White House,” the SPLC said in a statement released Thursday.
In other words, the SPLC is trying to link Roof with non-racist conservatives who routinely criticize Obama’s presidency.
It seems reasonable to assume that racists got riled up when a black guy moved into the White House. It makes no sense to say that by stating that assumption that “the SPLC is trying to link Roof with non-racist conservatives who routinely criticize Obama’s presidency”. They are trying no such thing. Put this Kit Daniels guy on the list.
The $PLC used to do some good work back in the day, but it has turned into a “hate biz” racket and has pretty much discredited itself. FBI stopped linking to it.
I guess the hate biz is more lucrative than actually doing real legal work on behalf of the downtrodden.
Black/arabic/hispanic guy kills a bunch of innocent people = “those people are like that, they hate us and everything we stand for”.
White guy kills a bunch of innocent people = ”it’s a conspiracy against white people”.
You don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
Adam Lanza
“Adam Lanza”
Now there’s a spooky character. Difficult to imagine that his mom taught him to use magazine-fed weapons.
Nothing that my 5-year-old boy couldn’t figure out on his own.