Bits Bucket for June 28, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Greece’s parliament has backed plans for a referendum on its international creditors’ terms for a new bailout.
The 5 July referendum was called by PM Alexis Tsipras, who urged voters to reject the proposal, which demanded reforms in return for loans.
The country’s creditors have refused funding to save Greece from defaulting on a €1.6bn (£1.1bn) IMF repayment due on Tuesday.
The country’s future in the eurozone looks increasingly at risk.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33302526
Greece’s European partners shut the door on extending a credit lifeline to Athens, leaving it facing a default that could push it out of the euro after the leftist government rejected tough lender demands and put their bailout deal to a referendum.
Finance ministers of the other 18 countries sharing the euro met for the first time without Greece and flatly rejected its pleas to extend an expiring bailout until after the referendum on July 5 and setting the stage for Athens to default on a crucial IMF payment on Tuesday.
The 18 pledged to do whatever it takes to stabilize the common currency area and said they were in much better shape to do so than at the height of the euro zone crisis a few years ago. In a formal statement, they also implicitly urged Greece to impose capital controls to stabilize its banking system.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/27/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150627
Why do I think they will row back from the edge. Still even if they do, eventually Greece will go over the edge.
Lets see…
If I vote yes, we get more severe austerity in the face of my country already being in a depression with Debt-to-GDP @ 180%….
If I vote no, we are on our own, no longer in the euro, and our Debt-to-GDP is zero….
Which way would you vote…
The latter, for sure.
That way I know what my hard work is for, and where the benefits are reaped.
Locally. Or should I say, more locally than before.
Let those nearest the generation of profit and revenue decide how to invest it or spend it.
If I was Greece, I would bail from the EU and sell the Acropolis to China for 10 billion.
The peak of a financial crisis is bad timing to sell assets to foreign investors. By contrast, the US seems to have a knack for sucking in foreign buyers at peak mania prices, which is the right time to sell.
Helps too if your military is mightier than your bubble buyers when things finally unravel.
Vote no on paying back the loans. Vote YES on sticking it to the man. Has there ever been any other way?
July 5th 2005 was the pop of the last bubble in n va
This time I’m expecting the big fizzle to begin
No pop, just slow leak
Loudoun County, VA Housing Prices Fall 7%
http://www.zillow.com/loudoun-county-va/home-values/
Scottish house prices have seen their sharpest fall in six years as the ‘transaction tax boom’ has come to an end in spectacular style.
During March there was a rush of high-value sales as buyers tried to beat the introduction of the new Land and Buildings Transaction Tax in April. Some 83 properties worth £1m or more were sold in March, compared to 12 in a typical month, with 46 of them changing hands in the three days running up to the introduction of LBTT on April 1.
However, new figures show no properties were sold for more than £1m in April.
Overall, average prices fell 1.6 per cent in the month, a fall equal to £3,000, and the typical price of a house in Scotland now stands at £184,970.
This represents the largest monthly fall since March 2009, according to the Your Move/Acadata House Price Index for April.
https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2015/6/stamp-duty-replacement-leads-to-slump-in-house-prices
Seems nearly everyone up and down the income/wealth spectrum is part of the How Much a Month club.
Washington, DC Housing Prices Fall 6%
http://www.movoto.com/washington-dc/market-trends/
Now this is an overpriced, depreciating asset:
http://www.kbb.com/gmc/sierra-2500-hd-crew-cab/2015-gmc-sierra-2500-hd-crew-cab/denali/?vehicleid=399485&intent=buy-new
I’d rather buy something that provides me shelter.
Vehicles depreciate just like houses.
Robert Shiller: “Houses Depreciate”
http://www.pragcap.com/robert-shiller-dont-invest-in-housing
Like he wrote, people are better off diversifying their portfolio by living in a rental than from buying a house.
people depreciate
Debt donkeys depreciate a lot faster than free people.
Gilroy, CA Housing Prices Fall 5%
http://www.movoto.com/gilroy-ca/market-trends/
Realtor Says “beat me! I love it!” During Arrest; Offers $1000 Bribe To Officer
http://bocanewsnow.com/2015/06/17/outrageous-agent-realtor-monica-felzer-charged-with-dui-hit-and-run/
Mortgage Broker And Appraiser Fraud Ring “Weren’t Willing To Accept Their Losses”
http://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2015/06/25/seven-falls-developer-keith-vinson-gets-years-prison/29277791/
Is the prospect of Greece defaulting on its €1.6bn payment to the IMF on Tuesday contained?
EU nations are divided on whether Greece is TBTF.
But one thing is quite certain: Once a negotiating party is certain they have TBTF status, they effectively hold all the cards. So it is probably a bad strategy for the other side to tip their hand by divulging such information, even if it’s true.
Wake us up when you use price per square ft
Given the recent historically high influence of foreign investors in U.S. housing, it won’t be long now before global financial turmoil trickles down to affect it.
Perhaps - and mostly in places most affected by foreign “investors”.
Most places are not affected. “Historically high” doesn’t affect large swaths of the country.
Home » Report on Business » Economy » Housing
Global Property
Property in Greece? Tempting, but buyers are holding back
GUY DIXON
The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 12:11PM EDT
This is the 14th in a series of stories on global property that examines the shifts and trends in the housing market on the international stage.
The town of Lindos in Rhodes, Greece. Foreigners are eyeing Greek property. But they aren’t actually buying. (iStock)
You can be forgiven for thinking a Greek vacation home would be a bargain – as attractive as a Greek holiday.
Greece’s debt crisis has created an economy of bargains for foreigners. Tourists have been coming in droves. A record number of visitors came to Greece in 2014, at least 22 million according to the Bank of Greece (up 23 per cent from 2013), all deciding that now’s the time to take in the Parthenon or Aegean Coast at discount prices.
And by all accounts, the residential real-estate sector is said to be a buyer’s market for foreigners. Good homes are available at practically any price for which a buyer may be looking.
But that where the similarity between real estate and tourism ends.
Tourism on upswing
Foreigners are said to be keenly eyeing Greek property as much as they ever have. They just aren’t actually buying. The debt crisis and the continual brinksmanship in negotiations have created too much uncertainty, even if a Greek exit from the euro zone is unthinkable among most real-estate watchers. Still, there’s a major risk in a Greek property investment becoming illiquid in badly suffering economy.
On the Greek island of Rhodes, however, a favourite of foreign buyers, where the typical winter temperature is 17 C, foreign interest has continued and could see renewed buying if the crisis were to ease.
“The demand has increased, for many reasons. The most important one, you could say, is that people all over Europe are looking for somewhere to put their money,” said Emmanouil Zervos, managing director of German real-estate company Engel & Volkers’ office in Rhodes.
“And of course the prices in Greece, at the moment, are attractive to them. So, a lot of people are watching Greece. They are coming to visit properties. The thing is that they are still waiting to do the final move. Requests [to see properties] are higher, but not the sales.”
…
Shop when they’re priced in euros, buy when they’re priced in drachmas.
According my “back of the internet” analysis (see below), prices in Greece are still much higher than the United States. So why buy?
Don’t think a financial crisis overseas won’t affect the price of a house on your street. A European or Chinese financial collapse would be just the start of a worldwide depression that won’t just affect Europe and China.
Canada’s getting wollopped with the commodities price crash should also have a favorable effect on US housing affordability (e.g. less manic ppsf).
“Canada’s biggest oil province has a lot of problems”
http://www.businessinsider.com/business-confidence-is-plunging-in-alberta-canada-2015-6
“On top of low office demand and companies subletting record amounts of space, we’re in the midst of a major development cycle with about three million square feet under construction downtown. Right now, it’s a perfect storm.”
Will the PBOC’s confidence building move suffice to reverse the panic?
Suppose the Chinese government directly intervened in the stock market as a stealth buyer, rather like a company buying its own shares to drive up the price. Is there any way such a move could fail to restore confidence in the market?
hey why not. Print some cash and keep prices artificially high, its the american way!
Japan and the swiss openly engage in this behavior.
STOCKS AND HOMES WILL MAKE U RICH!
Is it generally legal for central planners to surreptitiously disrupt nominally private markets?
good question
Is it legal for folks to create credit and loan it out to working people and collect interest ?
How would the entire banking industry otherwise survive?
One of the reasons the Fed hates transparency is because of the Wizard of Oz effect. The Fed wishes to create an illusion, and transparency defeats that. The Chinese central bank has no transparency so it has more power to create illusions. It will be interesting to see if its story-telling power can restore confidence.
OTOH, even the most opaque central bank has thousands of people examining the evidence of what is going on. So it’s that much harder to maintain an illusion.
The US does the same thing. It works until it doesn’t.
Hey, everybody! It’s a new dawn in America, the union just became a little more perfect, love is in the air and…oh, dear:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sf-pride-event-shooting-20150627-story.html
Taste the rainbow!
Oh, and the “official word” is that it’s NOT a hate crime, so not to worry, no one will be going full metal grovel to take down that rainbow flag. It was just some bands of misguided yoots. Probably arguing over a bag of Skittles.
Pack it in
Lawsuits start Monday for equal pay etc
lawyers are going to make a killing on divorces…2 income no kids lots of spare cash to throw at you guys……….what took you so long?
Can it be a hate crime if everybody who was shooting or shot at was black? I don’t know what color the vendor that got shot was, but he was a bystander.
Former Realtor Sentenced To 5 Years In Federal Prison: Fraud
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jun/23/ex-phoenix-area-realtor-gets-prison-in-mortgage-fr/
Former Boston Realtor Found Guilty Of 67 Counts Of Wire Fraud, Bank Fraud And Money Laundering
http://www.dotnews.com/columns/2015/justice-served-real-estate-fraudster
Most realtors are hard working people.
LOL!!
One day that high school drop out selling shoes at PayLess, the next you lease an SUV, put in a cooler full of water bottles in it and practice sliding a key into a lock, VIOLA!! you are a Realturd!
Work up to being able to point to the high ceilings and “cozy” kitchen.
To be fair, sometimes it takes a little work to find that one special patsy who can be convinced that buying a house is an investment, not a gamble.
House across the street, which I estimate to be 50K overpriced (more like $150K),is sold within 5 days of being listed, and I found it back the market during my due diligence tonight. It was pending for 3 days. Buyer must have awaken from the spell the their agent cast on them.
I head another agent tell their buyer, our neighborhood wasn’t worth the listing price, and the young couple thought the seller was delusional.
Happy to see buyers engaging logic.
If zillow predicts a 1% price reduction how can there be break even horizon?
http://www.zillow.com/loudoun-county-va/home-values/
Leesburg, VA Housing Prices Fall 18%
http://www.zillow.com/leesburg-va-20148/home-values/
I will rent u a self contained tent for 50 bucks a night.
Ooooph…
Kirkland, WA Housing Inventory Skyrockets 82%: Prices Fall
http://www.movoto.com/kirkland-wa/market-trends/
Wrong as usual, HA.
Analysis. Data. Falling Prices.
Costa Mesa, CA Housing Prices Fall 14%
http://www.zillow.com/costa-mesa-ca-92627/home-values/
“self contained tent”
Hold on, does that mean we can’t use the bathroom in the house?
I have lots of buckets.
By 2018 it will be a Corolla tax
Obamacare 40% Cadillac Tax Hits No Frills Plans Too. Like Your Plan, Keep Your Plan?
Apr 7, 2015
In 2010, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged passage of Obamacare so we could find out what’s in it. We found many new taxes, but in 2010, few worried about the Cadillac tax that was delayed until 2018. Besides, it would apply only to truly rich plans for the most elite. The numbers no longer seem so elite.
The tax applies to individual health plans worth more than $10,200 and family plans worth more than $27,500. They are hit with a whopping 40% excise tax. Former Obamacare adviser Jonathan Gruber gloated that rising medical costs would ensure that the Cadillac tax would all but eliminate tax deductible company provided health insurance. Mr. Gruber even said President Obama was in the room when the Cadillac tax lie was created.
2018 now seems close and the Cadillac tax is looming. Many Democrats and Republicans may be curiously aligned in considering repealing it. Politico has an in-depth story on the Cadillac tax, noting that repealing it would cost $87 billion. Even so, the 40% excise tax will clearly be a catastrophe. Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) introduced legislation to repeal it. Companies and unions must plan ahead as they negotiate benefits.
Plainly, the Cadillac name is a gross misnomer. It will apply to many benefits that are hardly elite. The sea change is enormous. Company provided health benefits have not been taxed for generations. And that is exactly what the deceptively named Cadillac tax does. It is broad too, applying to health savings and flexible spending accounts, supplemental insurance plans, and more.
Even plans that are not hit by the 40% tax in 2018 soon could be. After all, the Cadillac tax is linked to the consumer price index plus 1%. Medical and insurance costs are growing far faster, so more and more plans will be hit with the 40% each year. A survey by Mercer anticipates that one-third of employers will be hit by the tax in 2018, growing to 60% by 2022. It could be worse still.
A reasonable response to the Cadillac tax is likely to be cutting of health insurance. Less generous coverage will presumably be provided. In large part, the result is likely to higher costs for employees, higher deductibles, and other add-ons that will harm employees. Doesn’t that go directly contrary to what proponents of the Affordable Care Act–including the President–represented? Like your plan, keep your plan?
http://www.forbes.com/…/ - 155k
Where oh where will those evil insurance companies find the money to cover this?
Experts see big price hikes for Obamacare
Premiums could rise more sharply in 2016.
By Paul Demko
5/30/15 7:04 AM EDT
The cost of Obamacare could rise for millions of Americans next year, with one insurer proposing a 50 percent hike in premiums, fueling the controversy about just how “affordable” the Affordable Care Act really is.
In addition, insurers are dealing with uncertainty and the phasing out of “risk adjustment” programs that were designed to protect companies from undue financial risk if they participated in the exchanges. The reinsurance program, which compensates health plans that end up with a disproportionately expensive population, is scheduled to disappear after 2016. The program has already dwindled from $10 billion in 2014 to $4 billion in 2016.
How premium increases will ultimately shake out also remains an open question. In most states, final rates won’t be available until the end of the summer. The political saliency of the issue will ultimately hinge on whether there is widespread anger about the increasing cost of Obamacare exchange plans.
The University of New Mexico’s Sanchez said the cost of premiums hasn’t been a major political issue in the state so far. That’s in part because Gov. Susana Martinez, a Republican, hasn’t actively resisted implementation of the health law like many of her GOP counterparts. But Sanchez thinks health insurance costs could emerge as a political factor if the final rates are close to what’s currently being proposed.
“Most voters, particular in this economic climate, are pocketbook voters,” Sanchez said. “Their personal finances are driving their political behavior.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/how-affordable-is-the-affordable-care-act-118428.html#ixzz3eN8ZhMbU
The ACA bites! Yet, congress does nothing to make improvements. Big Insurance is winning this one as the number of customers went up and prices stayed high.
Time to make it more competitive so prices drop. I should be able to chose any insurance co int he country, but instead I am forced to use Blue Cross, I pay $200, gov pays $300 subsidy. What a joke!! $5000 deductive.
Evolve!!
Can We Please, Finally, Get Rid of ‘Aunt Jemima’?
Posted on 6/25/2015, 8:25:58 PM by markomalley
Amid the current efforts to remove the Confederate flag as a symbol from state and federal buildings and to divest from its commercial circulation as a product and commodity, it is also important to remember that a host of products lining grocery store shelves to this day, including Aunt Jemima Pancake Mix and Aunt Jemima Syrup, are also very much linked to Southern racism.
Families, including children, still encounter Aunt Jemima on trips to the grocery store where products are marketed under this trademark by the Quaker Oats Company in the 21st century. Numerous writings have examined the development of the Aunt Jemima logo in 1889 by Chris L. Rutt and Charles G. Underwood for their ready-made pancake flour mix at the Pearl Milling Company; the logo’s inspiration by Billy Kersands’ minstrel song “Old Aunt Jemima”; and the logo’s eventual purchase and establishment as a trademark by the Quaker Oats Company in 1925, where it remains one of the longest continually running logos and trademarks in the history of American advertising.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com …
—————————————————————————–
I’m going with funny.
Rachel Dolezal - Ain’t Jemima - Funny Or Offensive
funnyoroffensive.com/aint-jemima/ - 74k -
I sense an opportunity here. Kanye West has just declared himself the biggest rock star on the face of the planet. He should do a licensing deal with Quaker Oats so they can replace Aunt Jemima with Kanye.
Heh-heh, the difference is, no licensing fees had to be paid to anyone called Jemima.
I wish I could get the funnyoroffensive.com/aint-jemima/ - 74k - to work. If you search it you can see her picture on the box with the words some artificial coloring.
I voted funny.
The biggest rock star on the planet is, unquestionably, Mick Jagger.
I’m not sure I’ve ever heard Kanye perform his material (is it music?).
Side note: IMO hardest working man in show (at least music) business is probably Paddy Maloney of the Chieftains.
Speaking of which, how’s McDonald’s doin’ these days?
I’m lovin’ it!
and IRISH COFFEE!!!
Welcome to the Oligarchy. Big Bizness told the Sup Ct how they wanted it all to go down. Roberts did not betray his party — he’s a loyal implementer of the Chamber of Commerce branch of the GOP.
I also suspect the CoC wing of the GOP wanted to defuse social issues that would otherwise drive Dem turnout in 2016. If O’care and gay marriage lost in the Sup Ct., there would be a lot of motivated people looking to vote anti-GOP.
========
“Corporate America on the winning side of Supreme Court’s latest major rulings [Reuters ]
Big business was on the winning side in the U.S. Supreme Court’s two major cases of the year, with hundreds of employers pushing hard in favor of gay marriage and the healthcare industry backing the insurance subsidies available under Obamacare.
The court on Thursday rejected a conservative challenge to President Barack Obama’s healthcare law on a 6-3 vote and, a day later, ruled 5-4 that gay marriage should be legal nationwide.
Both cases were largely seen through the lens of national ideological wars, with liberals backing gay marriage and Obamacare and conservatives opposing them. But the cases could also be seen as pro-business rulings by a court with a reputation as friendly to corporate interests under Chief Justice John Roberts.”
Jeb! touches the third rail. “Jeb Bush: Next president should privatize Social Security”
I missed this from 2 weeks ago. If Jeb! gets the nom he will get beat up by Hillary or Bernie for saying this. Handing over SS funds to the big banks is a non-starter with a big majority of people.
Which is why Donald Trump is breathing down his neck in New Hampsha.
Trump is adamantly against the privatization of SS.
While I don’t support “privatization,” I do think the SS fund could benefit greatly if it were allowed to invest in other markets than just treasuries. Diversify and run it more like a pension fund. There would have to be a non-partisan investment office to make sensible investment choices. Pension funds have a good track record of making good returns over the long haul. Pensions get into trouble because they increase benefits too much, or the employer doesn’t pay in like they should, or both.
Yes and goldman sach’s could be hired for a small fee to manage the investments.
It’s a no brainer.
And when the newfangled Wall Street guided Social Security Trust Fund crashes, leaving inadequate funds to make good on promised benefits, noone will have seen it coming.
CNN Mistakes Gay Pride Dildo Flag for ISIS Flag
“I seem to be the only person who has spotted this,” CNN international assignment editor Lucy Pawle says
Joe Otterson, provided by
Published 4:10 pm, Saturday, June 27, 2015
CNN apparently needs to give their employees a good lesson in sex toys.
CNN international assignment editor Lucy Pawle was walking down the street in London when she encountered a gay pride parade.
She was shocked when she saw someone carrying what looked like an ISIS flag in the crowd. The only problem: The flag was actually a parody of the ISIS flag covered in the images of dildos and butt plugs.
http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/CNN-Mistakes-Gay-Pride-Dildo-Flag-for-ISIS-Flag-6353663.php
They should make a confederate flag with two crossed dildos and a butt plug for every state.
“They should make a confederate flag with two crossed dildos and a butt plug for every state.”
Damn Oddie, those flags are everywhere now.
I have never seen so many, you better get out there and straighten those people out.
Confederate Flag Merchandise Surges
by Tom Murphy
Associated Press
Thursday Jun 25, 2015
I think those brave sons of the south should bring their flag waving pride to some of the neighborhoods of Detroit, just to straighten them out.
Hell Dman you can go with Oddie and straighten them out.
By the way, did they ever get the person who took the pictures of Dylann Roof with the Confederate flag and the Glock etc.?
Surely they must be dangerous extremists too. Is the man hunt still going on? Unless of course he had help from an alphabet agency and then they wouldn’t need a man hunt at all.
Can you arrest someone for taking a picture? Seems unlikely.
Wouldn’t that be Constitutionally protected free speech? I’d be fascinated to see the SCOTUS ruling on that one.
Amazon Ordered by the Federal Government to Stop Selling …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OAZ5geZUU4 - 316k -
Wow. Straight from the foreign-speaking operator at the customer call center. If this is common knowledge down to her level, and they’re telling it to whoever may who call and ask, it’s certainly not a very well-kept secret.
Better watch this now b4 someone takes it down.
You will probably enjoy the flag in back Oddie
Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers - Rebels - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoV-awiHpuM - 300k -
I feel bad about posting that Rebels video so I’ll make up for it by posting…
Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers - North American Union Girl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33mec03xeow - 294k -
“Wow. Straight from the foreign-speaking operator at the customer call center. If this is common knowledge down to her level, and they’re telling it to whoever may who call and ask, it’s certainly not a very well-kept secret.”
Social issues dominate Amazon’s annual shareholders meeting
by Todd Bishop on June 10, 2015 at 10:58 am
Amazon’s hiring of former presidential press secretary Jay Carney might have seemed like an unusual move at the time, but it sure paid off for Jeff Bezos today.
Jay Carney briefs the media in 2011. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson). He’s now playing much the same role for Jeff Bezos and Amazon.
At the company’s annual shareholders meeting in Seattle this morning, the Amazon CEO was peppered with questions from people representing causes including workers’ rights, the environment, urban development, and racial and gender diversity in the tech industry, in addition to a repeat appearance by a representative of a group opposing the company’s sale of foie gras.
After listening to an extended speech from Rev. Jesse Jackson, Bezos applauded, made brief remarks and handed the floor to Carney.
Using skills honed in front of the White House press corps, Carney assured the civil rights leader that Amazon is “working very hard on diversity,” outlining the steps the company has taken to disclose its workforce statistics and support technical education and training in underserved communities, among other initiatives.
http://www.geekwire.com/…/social-issues-dominate-amazons-annual-shareholders-meeting/ - 137k -
Sorry good ol’ boys, but it’s time.
The Band - The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jREUrbGGrgM
Who’s the mole at Walmart?
Walmart Will Send Representatives To White House To Talk Gun Control
Posted: 01/09/2013 12:47 pm EST
Acknowledging that it underestimated the Obama administration’s expectations about its involvement in gun control talks, Walmart said Wednesday company representatives would attend a meeting at The White House on Thursday to discuss firearms.
Walmart initially declined to have a representative attend the White House meeting, citing scheduling conflicts in a statement given to the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
“Knowing our senior leaders could not be in Washington this week, we spoke in advance with the Vice President’s office to share our perspective. We underestimated the expectation to attend the meeting on Thursday in person, so we are sending an appropriate representative to participate,” Walmart spokesman David Tovar said in a statement released late Wednesday morning. When asked for comment by The Huffington Post, a spokesman referred to the press release and didn’t respond to further questions.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/09/walmart-gun-control_n_2435232.html - 297k -
————————————————————-
Walmart Moves Into the White House
BY: Brent Scher
March 5, 2013 4:58 am
President Barack Obama on Monday nominated Sylvia Mathews Burwell, president of the Walmart Foundation, to be director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.
Obama hiring from the ranks of Walmart is the latest development in the company’s remarkable transition from enemy of Obama and the left to one of his most reliable partners in the business community.
reebeacon.com/politics/walmart-moves-into-the-white-house/ - 72k -
Holy cow! Sears?
Today I am reminded of an old joke.
If Russia invade Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?
Makes more sense when you say it out loud to someone.
Gary Hart
June 26, 2015
What brought us to this? A sinister system combining staggering campaign costs, political contributions, political action committees, special interest payments for access, and, most of all, the rise of the lobbying class.
Worst of all, the army of lobbyists that started relatively small in the mid-twentieth century has now grown to big battalions of law firms and lobbying firms of the right, left, and an amalgam of both. And that gargantuan, if not reptilian, industry now takes on board former members of the House and the Senate and their personal and committee staffs. And they are all getting fabulously rich.
This development in recent years has been so insidious that it now goes without notice. The key word is not quid-pro-quo bribery, the key word is access. In exchange for a few moments of the senator’s time and many more moments of her committee staff’s time, fund-raising events with the promise of tens, even hundreds, of thousands of dollars are delivered.
Frustrated, irate discussions of this legalized corruption are met in the Washington media with a shrug. So what? Didn’t we just have dinner with that lobbyist for the banking industry, or the teachers’ union, or the airline industry at that well-known journalist’s house only two nights ago? Fine lady, and she used to be the chairman of one of those powerful committees. I gather she is using her Rolodex rather skillfully on behalf of her new clients. Illegal? Not at all. Just smart . . . and so charming.
There is little wonder that Americans of the right and many in the middle are apoplectic at their government and absolutely, and rightly, convinced that the game of government is rigged in favor of the elite and the powerful. Occupiers see even more wealth rising to the top at the expense of the poor and the middle class. And Tea Partiers believe their tax dollars are going to well-organized welfare parasites and government bureaucrats.
Recent months have seen, in effect, the legalization of Watergate. Who would have thought, forty years after the greatest political scandal and presidential abuse of power in U.S. history, that the Supreme Court of the United States would rule the practices that financed that scandal were now legal?
That is essentially the effect of the Citizens United decision. Bets may be taken as to the length of time that will expire before this tsunami of political money ends up in the pockets of break-in burglars, wiretap experts, surveillance magicians, and cyberpunks. Given the power and money at stake in presidential and congressional elections, it is inevitable that candidates or their operatives with larceny in their hearts will tap into the hundreds of millions of dollars that their campaigns are awash in to game the system in highly illegal ways.
Welcome to the Age of Vanity politics and campaigns-for-hire featuring candidates who repeat their sponsored messages like ice-cream-truck vendors passing through the neighborhood. If the current Supreme Court had been sitting during Watergate in 1974, it would not have voted 9–0 to require the president to turn over legally incriminating tapes but instead would have voted to support the use of illegal campaign contributions to finance criminal cover-ups as an exercise in “free speech.”
What would our founders make of this nightmare of corruption? We only know, in Thomas Jefferson’s case, for example, that his distrust of central government had to do with the well-founded and prescient suspicion that its largesse would go to powerful and influential interests, especially financiers, who knew how to manipulate both the government and the financial markets. In particular, Jefferson envisioned sophisticated bankers speculating in public-debt issues with some if not all the interest incurred going into their pockets.
He was way ahead of his time. The limits of his imagination would not have encompassed the early twenty-first-century financial world where vast sums of money are manipulated like the world’s greatest three-card-monte game and nothing tangible is being produced—except fees and more money. Even the titans ruling over this game confessed, after the 2008 financial collapse, that they did not know what collateralized debt obligations, bundled derivatives, and other tricky instruments devised by clever twenty-eight-year-olds were about. All they knew was how to respond to their industry lobbyists’ requests for very large contributions to compliant members of congressional finance committees and to do so quickly and often. And they did get their money’s worth.
Some years back a prominent senator was fond of saying with regard to the relatively modest lobbying influence of the day: “If I can’t take their money and drink their whiskey, and then vote against them, I shouldn’t be here.” That was then. And then campaigns cost much less than they do today. Few if any can now claim to take their money and drink their whiskey and vote against them. Anyone who does will soon find closed wallets and fleeing contributors.
Campaign funds now go to feed an army of consultants (or “strategists” in the coinage of the day), media advisors, media producers, television-time buyers, speechwriters, schedulers, advance specialists, crowd raisers, and more specialized campaign bells and whistles than everyday citizens can imagine. Campaigning is a major industry now that consumes hundreds of millions of dollars and, in national campaigns, billions of dollars. Almost all of it goes to the media, the same media whose commentators regularly deplore the costs of campaigns.
The headquarters of the permanent campaign industry in Washington are but a stone’s throw, if that, from the offices of the lobbying firms. The treasurers of most campaigns have only to funnel the checks from lobbyist-bundlers (those who collect bundles of checks) into the accounts of the campaign management companies. It is a great hydra-headed monster, one that is rapidly devouring American democracy.
The significant issue is the effect of this relatively recent conversion of a democratic process to a major industry that devours money. That industry and all it represents is a departure from the American ideal that is different not only in scale but also in kind.
We are not the same country we started out to be. We cannot conduct our political process the way we are doing in the twenty-first century and claim to adhere to our earliest principles. We must decide who we are. And if that decision is to restore our highest ideals, then major changes must be made in the way we elect our presidents and our members of Congress.
time.com/3937860/gary-hart-america-corruption/ - 280k -
Big biz helps keep Obamacare, bring in gay marriage, and bring down the confederate flag, and now you’re calling for an end to Citizen’s United?
It it just me, or has this past week seen a sea change in US politics?
Is there still time for a deus ex machina ending before Greece defaults on Tuesday?
Bank holiday until at least the referendum!?
“Update 21:10
Greek banking sources tell me that the banks have been instructed to close for at least a week and a day. And during that period of closure the following capital controls will be imposed:
a) a maximum of 60 euros can be withdrawn per bank card per day or per account per day;
b) no cash can be moved abroad at all, except for vital commercial transactions that would have to be pre-approved.
The hope would be that banks could open their doors again some time after the result of the referendum is known next Sunday night, probably the Tuesday - so long as Greeks vote for a bailout on the terms demanded by the country’s eurozone and IMF creditors.
But European finance ministers and the IMF have not guaranteed that the deal will still be available. So it is possible the emergency bank closures will continue beyond the current signaled end of next Monday night.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33306158
ft dot com > Markets >
Capital Markets
Global Economy
June 28, 2015 5:47 pm
Markets set to react sharply to escalation in Greek debt crisis
Elaine Moore, Ralph Atkins and Katie Martin
People line up to withdraw cash from a National Bank ATM in Thessaloniki, Greece June 27, 2015. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum on austerity demands from foreign creditors on Saturday, rejecting an “ultimatum” from lenders and putting a deal that could determine Greece’s future in Europe to a risky popular vote. REUTERS/Alexandros Avramidis
©Reuters
Escalation in the Greek debt crisis over the weekend is widely expected to trigger a sharp reaction when financial markets open on Monday, shattering the relative calm that has prevailed in recent weeks.
With the Greek stock exchange closed and banks imposing a bank holiday on Monday, the European Central Bank refusing to expand emergency loans and creditors rejecting a bailout extension for the country, investors will be urgently assessing whether the fallout will be limited to Greece — or become a global event.
Bonds
Fears of a eurozone break-up during the 2011-12 crisis played out in the government bond markets of southern eurozone “periphery” countries, and a significant jump in Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields on Monday would be a clear sign that investors are once again taking the possibility of contagion seriously.
If that is the case, expect to see a flight to safety, with investors selling out of Europe’s riskiest assets in favour of the relative security of bonds issued by Germany.
Government borrowing costs in “core” Europe could drop while those in the periphery rise, increasing the spread between the two. Worries about waning liquidity across markets could further exacerbate volatility in the event of a sell-off.
But if the difference between the spread increases by up to 20 or 30 basis points it will mean contagion is viewed as manageable rather than wholesale, says Steve Englander, strategist at Citigroup.
Even a jump of as much as 50 basis points would still leave the countries with historically low borrowing rates — and much lower than during 2011-12.
Keeping a lid on yields will be eurozone “quantitative easing”. Since the ECB decided to follow in the footsteps of central banks in the US, UK and Japan by implementing an aggressive bond-buying programme this year, prices for bonds issued across the eurozone have jumped, pushing yields to record lows.
In contrast, prices of Greek government bonds, which are not part of the QE programme, have collapsed. They are likely to fall further into distressed territory when Greek markets reopen.
…
Are rate cuts really the ticket for a robust economy?
Financial Times
ft dot com/global economy
June 28, 2015 11:48 am
Low rates hold back global growth, BIS warns
By Ferdinando Giugliano and Claire Jones in London
Flags of international countries hang from poles outside the headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland
©Bloomberg
Ultra-low interest rates hold back global growth and fuel instability, the Bank for International Settlements has warned, as it urged central banks to move more swiftly towards normalising monetary policy.
The BIS said in its annual report that monetary authorities from the US to Japan had been handed too much responsibility to steer the global recovery and that much more of the weight had to fall on governments, which were failing to pass vital structural reforms.
The warning comes as leading central banks from the US Federal Reserve to the Bank of England eye their first increase in borrowing costs since the financial crisis, with some rate-setters calling for an increase as soon as this autumn.
The International Monetary Fund has urged the Fed to delay a rate rise until 2016 as it fears this may hinder the US recovery and cause instability in the emerging world.
But the BIS, which acts as the central bank of central banks, believes policy makers have failed to pay enough attention to the potential problems associated with keeping interest rates low for too long.
“For monetary policy, there is a need to fully appreciate the risks to financial and hence macroeconomic stability associated with current policies,” the BIS report said. “A more balanced approach would mean attaching more weight than hitherto to the risks of normalising too late and too gradually”.
The BIS believes that, rather than simply reflecting widespread economic weaknesses, ultra-low rates have contributed to the slow recovery in the global economy by entrenching excessive reliance on debt and causing large-scale misallocation of capital.
Central banks’ interest rates
“[Ultra-low rates] have underpinned the contrast between high risk-taking in financial markets, where it can be harmful, and subdued risk-taking in the real economy, where additional investment is badly needed,” said Claudio Borio, head of the BIS monetary and economic department.
…
ft dot com > World > Asia-Pacific >
China
Last updated: June 28, 2015 10:08 am
China market in focus after rate cut
Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai
This photo taken on June 26, 2015 shows investors checking the share prices in a stock firm in Fuyang, east China’s Anhui province. When China’s main share index hit a seven-year high earlier this month, it topped off a run that had seen it more than double in value over the past year, placing it among the world’s top performers.
AFP PHOTO CHINA OUT
©AFP
China’s roller-coaster stocks will again be under the spotlight after the central bank cut benchmark interest rates to a record low at the weekend, a move interpreted by analysts as an attempt to temper last week’s market meltdown
The Shanghai Composite sank 7.4 per cent on Friday, wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off the total market capitalisation of the index. The market has reversed 18.8 per cent from its June 12 high, although it is still up almost 30 per cent in the year to date.
The People’s Bank of China appeared to respond on Saturday, when it cut the one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent - its fourth cut since November - and lowered the amount of reserves certain banks are required to hold by 50 basis points.
“In China, a rate cut or a cut in the reserve requirement ratio is about signalling,” says Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie. “The signal is mostly to boost confidence, and confidence plays a very important role in the Chinese economy.
“When the PBOC cuts interest rates or RRR it suggests China is in an easing cycle, that is very important. “It will inject a lot of confidence in the stock market”.
China’s stock market is widely seen as driven by policy at least as much as company fundamentals. The perception that the latest rate cut is a hasty response to Friday’s correction risks undermining the credibility of previous official statements that the government should focus on structural reforms and avoid trying to influence the level of the market.
The one year deposit rate will similarly be lowered by 25 basis points, to 2 per cent.
“This is the best time for them to cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratios,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities. “If they had not acted, on Monday there would have been real panic in the stock market.
More than two-thirds of the companies listed in Shanghai hit their daily downward limit of 10 per cent on Friday. Some of the biggest stocks saw billions of dollars knocked off their value, with China Life Insurance shedding 7.5 per cent, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen market dropped 7.9 per cent.
Mr Shen added that real interest rates in China remained very high and investment continued to decline but the PBOC could not move before this because of the stock market bubble.
“The rate cut is a necessary step in the right direction,” said Wang Tao, China chief economist at UBS. “Real lending rates are still significantly higher than a year ago. High real rates [coupled with] a weak economy with deflationary pressures means a heavy debt service burden on the real economy, both the corporate sector and local governments.”
…
Zhou Channels Greenspan Put With Easing After China Stocks Slump
by Enda Curran
June 27, 2015 — 5:24 PM PDT
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan
Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Say hello to the “Zhou Put.”
After the biggest two-week plunge in China’s stock market since December 1996, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan cut interest rates to a record low. The move is reminiscent of a strategy pursued by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who lowered rates after market meltdowns in what became known as the “Greenspan Put.”
Chinese stocks sank on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.4 percent, taking its decline from its June 12 high to 19 percent, on the cusp of a bear market.
“Similar to the Greenspan Put after Black Monday in 1987, this time it’s the PBOC’s turn to play ‘put’ after Black Friday,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong.
The move raises three questions, according to Hu. Should margin financing be banned to prevent over-leveraging? How much volatility will China’s policy makers accept as they open the capital account? And how can the PBOC improve guidance?
…
“The move raises three questions, according to Hu.”
According to Hu!?
What is the blog’s consencus on Greek real estate? I’m thinking about picking some up.
CRATER
Apparently, Greece has a housing bubble in the midst of a Great Depression. This property is for rent and sale. The rent would turn about to be about 4% of the purchase price annually, after deducting the normal expenses. This assumes the buyer pays cash. Do they rent by the week or month in Greece? I was figure on the month.
(you know what)_dot_foukis-realestate.gr/en/residential_property.asp
FOR RENT
D: 14960
State: ATTICA
Area: PALLINI PANORAMA
Status: For Rent - Offer
Type: House
Year: 2001
Bedrooms: 6
Size: 440 sq/m.
on a block 670 sq/m.
Level: Semibasement
until 1st
Price: 2,800 €
FOR SALE
ID: 12079
State: ATTICA
Area: PALLINI PANORAMA
Status: For Sale
Type: House
Year: 2001
Bedrooms: 6
Size: 440 sq/m.
on a block 670 sq/m.
Level: Basement
until 2nd
Price: 580,000 €
What is it about “too much alcohol in the punch bowl” that you fail to understand?
I liked someone’s astute comment today:
- Shop when priced in euro
- Buy when priced in drachma
To that I’d add the following:
- Unless you are truly a deep pocket investor, try to find a REIT that pools Greek property investments rather than buy individual properties
- Maybe even better: Look for a PIIGS REIT fund that diversifies country risk
- Consider keeping your powder dry until the next time most of the developed world’s day traders are too broke or too fearful to buy (recent example: March 2009). The punch bowl is currently too loaded with alcohol, but the picture could improve if the Fed ever gets around to liftoff, which they by now have pretty much convinced financial market participants is never going to happen (Boy Who Cried “Wolf” problem).
But the NYSE is overpriced overall, so I would wash myself out that way. Is there like a Greek stock market I could use? Maybe this is something I should already know, but I don’t.
I used the Google and learned that there is an Athens stock market. It will be closed for at least a week. Bad dealio. Better to own the house and rent it for cash moola to foreigners on vacation, using a property manager of course. Just need less alcohol in the punch bowl. I will pounce when everyone else is passed out. That’s the plan.
I want to go there on vacation over Christmas, if I can get the time off, so I can look around when I’m there.
Wouldn’t it be FUN to own a villa in Greece?
Future HBB meet-up in Greek villa?
I like it!
I need to furnish it with wine-colored sofas and such, since my tenants will be spilling the stuff all over the place.
From the looks of things, stronger drink than wine may be spilled in the coming days. Maybe not to worry; from my hazy recollection, Ouzo is as clear as water.
They are slashing rent prices like a mad dog. Surely purchase prices are bound to follow:
http://www.greece-for-sale.com/en/halkidiki-detached-house-kassandra-ID3182
The deadbeat line keeps on growing.
.
Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/business/dealbook/puerto-ricos-governor-says-islands-debts-are-not-payable.html?emc=edit_na_20150628&nlid=54307837&ref=cta&_r=0
Bitcoin moving up while the capital controls in Greece goes into effect.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-advancing-strongly-greek-defiance/
That’s fascinating! Seems to also portend a mini crash in bitcoin a couple of months out, upon panic subsidence. Let’s compare notes at the end of the summer.
What are the best vacation spots in Greece? I want to buy a Greek vacation rental for like the loose change in my pocket. Any advice from people who have been there?
This needs to be a place where middle-aged women tend to vacation.
CHECK THIS OUT!!!!
Oh, but I forgot about this sort of thing:
http://livingingreece.gr/2011/09/19/new-property-tax-greece/
Oh my GAWD.
Table C: Income tax bracket for business and other income (it is valid since 01/01/2013)
Range of income €
Brackets of income
Tax rates
Taxes per bracket of income
Overall income
Overall tax liability
Global tax rate
0-50,000
50,000
26%
13,000
50,000
13,000
26%
Over 50,001
Over 50,001
33%
No AirBnB for foreign investments in Greek rental property…
phony scandals
flag