Cautious Buyers Are Willing To Walk Away
The Memphis Daily News reports from Tennessee. “Hampered by a severe lot shortage, homebuilding activity in Memphis and Shelby County slowed considerably in May, with builders starting and selling fewer new homes than last year. Steady demand, coupled with low inventory, higher lot prices and escalating construction costs, has prompted builders to raise prices. The average sales price of a new home in Shelby County in May was $311,303, up a whopping 19 percent from $261,311 a year ago. ‘I cannot remember anytime dating back to the 1980s where this has occurred in the past,’ said Keith Grant, an owner of Grant & Co. ‘Even during 2005 and 2006 we were not even seeing increases of 10 percent in the market.’”
“‘Everything we’re putting up gets sold and we’re raising prices continuously,’ said David Goodwin Jr., owner of David Goodwin Jr. Cos. LLC and 2015 president of the West Tennessee Home Builders Association.”
The Wall Street Journal on New York. “Sales of Manhattan’s most-expensive luxury apartments were strong during the second quarter—with a record number of sales for more than $4 million—but sales at less-lofty prices sagged. Brokers attributed the slowdown at lower price points to buyer resistance to high asking prices and to limited supply. Julia Hoagland, a broker at Compass, said the market was ‘extremely active’ but shifting to a point where cautious buyers are often willing to walk away from high prices. ‘Buyers are just reaching the point where they say, ‘If I get a price that is fair, fine. And if I don’t, I don’t care,’ she said.”
The Press Democrat in California. “Sonoma County home prices keep rising, but plenty of sellers nonetheless are finding they can’t get as much money as they’d like for their properties. For various reasons, agents and brokers said, more owners this spring have dropped their initial asking prices. Multiple listing data suggest that better than 1 in 5 currently available properties have undergone price reductions, said Mike Kelly, an agent with Keller Williams in Santa Rosa. ‘You’re having price reductions because they priced them too high, and they can’t sell them because they think the market’s so hot they can price them for anything and people will jump all over ’em,’ Kelly said.”
The Tallahassee Democrat in Florida. “Florida’s rate of monthly home sales is 98.2 percent of when the market peaked a decade ago, housing reports indicate. But Tallahassee falls below the state’s average with sales hovering at 61 percent of peak levels. Leon County is hitting 51 percent of the 2005 rate. Joe Manausa, a Tallahassee real estate expert who mines data and produces the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, said the market is still over supplied and poised to get worse. The irony, Manausa said, is that the demand builders can fill is the segment of the market that has too many homes, specifically those costing less than $300,000. He said the ‘real demand’ is for lots that cost less than $50,000.”
“‘We still have too many homes for sale in Tallahassee,’ Manausa said. ‘It looks like the situation is going to continue for the next few years.’”
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “For months, Atlantic County has led the nation in foreclosure activity for metropolitan areas with more than 200,000 residents. Faced with poor maintenance and the problem of vacant homes, neighbors may feel like celebrating when they hear a sheriff’s sale is set. But the sales rarely result in a quick happy ending, said Atlantic County Sheriff Frank Balles. First, the banks can postpone the sale as often as they want. On a recent Thursday, ‘we had 50 homes to be auctioned,’ Balles said. Only 25 to 30 actually went to auction.”
“Only a small number end up selling to anyone other than the bank that holds the mortgage. If a bank or mortgage company buys a property, it ends up vacant, or the mortgage holder asks the previous owners to stay to avoid the vacant look. ‘Two weeks ago we had 45 properties for sale, and we sold six to third-party buyers,’ Balles said recently. ‘Last week we had 30, and only two sold to third parties.’”
Vegas Inc. in Nevada. “Lenders are ramping up foreclosures in Southern Nevada, seizing homes that in many cases likely have been in default — and possibly empty and in disrepair — for a lengthy amount of time. Creditors repossessed 677 homes in the Las Vegas area in May, the third consecutive month-to-month increase and the highest monthly tally in more than 2 1/2 years, according to RealtyTrac.”
“Real estate agents say banks don’t want to flood the market with listings. That could push down prices valleywide, limiting lenders’ ability to recoup their losses from soured mortgages. Today, even though there are more repossessions, lenders might not list the homes right away for that same reason. In many cases, banks and hedge funds are seizing homes and giving residents an opportunity to lease their house or buy it back, Platinum Real Estate Professionals agent Steve Hawks said. ‘They don’t put it on the market, a lot of them,’ he said.”
“Hawks said he knows a woman who owns a roughly 4,000-square-foot house in the upscale Henderson foothills community of MacDonald Highlands who hasn’t made a mortgage payment in more than 4 1/2 years. She is, however, renting out the house for nearly $4,000 per month, he said. Hawks said he recently met a man in his office who hadn’t made a mortgage payment in seven years. ‘That’s common,’ he said.”
“The two-story townhouse at 2823 Cool Water Drive in Henderson, has been empty for at least a few years. But its condition is ‘not terrible,’ and it hasn’t been vandalized, next-door neighbor Gina Hughes said. Lenders seized the home May 22, more than two years after the default notice was filed. Hughes, herself a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker, said prospective buyers have stopped by to look at the house but rarely come anymore. On a recent visit, foreclosure and abandoned-property notices were taped to the front door and to a window facing the street. ‘There is a lot of ghost inventory out there,’ Hughes said.”
“‘Everything we’re putting up gets sold and we’re raising prices continuously,’ said David Goodwin Jr., owner of David Goodwin Jr. Cos. LLC and 2015 president of the West Tennessee Home Builders Association.”
Thank God they’re raising prices as fast as they can because that’s the reason the last bubble market worked out so well for everyone. Unbridled developer greed is the key to real estate market success!
And this:
‘Bravo’s reality show “Million Dollar Listing San Francisco” debuts July 8, but I already have an idea for a spinoff — “Million Dollar Over Listing.” It would feature homes in the Bay Area that sold for at least $1 million more than the list price.’
‘There were at least 10 such sales in San Francisco over the past year, 14 in Santa Clara County and five in San Mateo County, according to Multiple Listing Service data. They ranged from teardowns to mansions.’
‘A home at 178 Sea Cliff Ave. in San Francisco, for example, sold in April for $11 million, which was $4.7 million or 75 percent over the $6,298,000 list’
“If you price (a home) where it should be, it will sit,” said Realtor Alan Canas.’
Oh come on that’s ridiculous, it had to be a stunt, listing it so low to generate some kind of bidding war. Even moronic realtors don’t get it that wrong.
Indeed… you can tell by walking around that nabe that there’s noting going for less than 10 mil.
Nothing is selling for it either.
Per Zillow, in Shelby county, only 33 houses 2014 or newer are for sale in Shelby county. Even 1-2 homes priced at $1+ million is enough to skew an average.
Per googling for “memphis new homes,” most of the new home communities still hover around $250-$275K.
Or perhaps the builders are just building bigger houses.
Unless I see a real apples-to-apples comparison, I don’t buy the idea of leaping appreciation.
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[HA, this is your cue to post some bogus stat about house prices cratering in Memphis. Come on.. you know you wanna...]
BTW, here’s your affordable housing. HA I don’t think even you could beat this:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2970-Hoskins-Rd-Memphis-TN-38114/42194387_zpid/
Small house on 1/3 acre. Would be a nice Oil City urban homestead…. I bet it’s a dicey nabe.
After some checking… yup, it’s a dicey nabe. The schools are rated 1 and 2 (out of 10). Yikes!
Not nearly as dicey as your ghetto Donk. Just think, you could have had your own grass fed raspberries and hand picked chickens.
This spring I did plant two blackberry vines. When I mow, I point the lawn mower so that the grass clippings fly into the vines and fertilize them as they decompose. So I guess my blackberries ARE grass-fed.
Growing out of cracks in the foundation walls of your shanty.
Price/sqft: $44
The way life was prior to 1997.
‘The manic ups and downs are testing the resolve of the China’s amateur investors, who piled into shares at a record pace as the market soared earlier this year.’
‘Liu Chang, 28, says his colleagues in the tobacco industry near Shanghai are vacillating between liquidating their positions and betting on a rally. Wang Yan, a 26-year-old who works for a publisher in China’s eastern Zhejiang province, says her friends are too terrified to even check the balance their online trading accounts.’
Don’t look Wang.
‘Liu Chang, 28, says his colleagues in the tobacco industry near Shanghai are vacillating between liquidating their positions and betting on a rally.’
Don’t forget to liquidate before the crash!
Oops…too late!!!
‘China’s decision to cut both interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements ratio (RRR), effective Sunday, will help stabilize the economy and send a positive signal to the capital and property markets, experts said.’
“Stabilizing growth is the fundamental reason behind the rare move of cutting interests rates and the RRR at the same time,” Zhou Jingtong, a senior analyst at the Bank of China, told the Global Times Sunday.’
‘The last time the central bank cut both interest rates and the RRR on the same day was in December 2008, when China’s GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of that year from 9 percent the previous quarter amid the global financial crisis.’
“Although some economic indicators for May have showed signs of stabilizing, the Chinese economy still faces downward pressure, and social financing costs are still high,” Zhou said.’
“This is not surprising given that real activity indicators remain weak in April and May, and show that China’s economy may have missed 7 percent growth in the second quarter,” Liu Ligang, chief China economist at ANZ Banking Group, wrote in a note.’
With two quarters in a row of below seven percent growth, Dan must be a hopin’ and a prayin’ for the miracle needed so annual growth in 2015 can come in ‘at about’ seven percent.
‘Chinese stocks tumbled, sending the benchmark index into a bear market, as signs of an exodus by leveraged investors overshadowed the central bank’s effort to revive confidence with an interest-rate cut.’
‘The retreat marks an end to the nation’s longest-ever bull market, a rally that’s lured record numbers of individual investors and convinced traders to bet an unprecedented amount of borrowed money on further gains. China’s interest-rate cut, along with assurances from the securities regulator that risks from margin trading are controllable, failed to ease concern that speculators are unwinding their positions.’
“Nobody knows when the market will bottom,” said Paul Chan, the Hong Kong-based chief investment officer for Asia ex-Japan at Invesco Ltd. “The unwinding of margin financing makes it very difficult to forecast what the fair valuation is.”
‘Zhang Gang, a strategist at Central China Securities strategist in Shanghai, called Monday’s losses “panic selling” that will likely continue as margin investors are forced to liquidate their holdings and the recent selloff spurs more mutual fund redemptions.’
‘The doubling in China’s main indexes in the past year coincided with the weakest economic growth in a quarter century. China’s bull market, which turned 935 days old Friday, had been the longest since bourses opened for trading in 1990 and more than five times the average lifespan of the nation’s previous bull markets.’
Dan do you remember that old song?
Crow in the morning
Crow in the evening
Crow at suppertime
When you got crow all around you
You can eat crow all the time.
…. eat up degenerate gamblers and debt donkeys…. eat up.
http://goo.gl/h4R5OE
Dan’s not here, man.
“Nobody knows when the market will bottom,” said Paul Chan, the Hong Kong-based chief investment officer for Asia ex-Japan at Invesco Ltd. “The unwinding of margin financing makes it very difficult to forecast what the fair valuation is.”
If you have the time and can find a library with archive copies of the Wall Street Journal, you might check out some old editions from the late-1929 through early-1930 period.
The upshot: The denial was running thick, as the Wall Street Journal writers and editors at the time had no clue the Great Depression had arrived.
I was looking at a chart of the Shanghai index. It was down over 6% at one point today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=000001.SS
‘Rewards card specialist Discover Financial Services, which got into the mortgage business via an acquisition in 2012, is shutting down its struggling home-lending business and laying off 460 employees, many of them in Irvine.’
“The [mortgage] business is not projected to meet our financial expectations,” said Carlos Minetti, Discover’s president of consumer banking, “so we made the difficult decision to exit.”
‘Discover bought the mortgage operation three years ago from Charlotte, N.C.-based Tree.com. The Irvine location has stopped accepting applications, the company said, although it was to continue processing and funding loans already in process.’
‘Discover said it plans to offer severance packages to affected employees. Three hundred and ninety work in Irvine, with the rest in Kentucky. The company said the home lending unit, Discover Home Loans Inc., would wind down business at its Louisville, Ky., offices in August.’
Discover quoted me a refinance loan about 4 months ago and they were 37.5 basis points above the market. I went with US Bank at 3.875% for a non-owner occ loan.
Discover could not find their way out if a wet paper bag!
‘The cost to rent a home is sky rocketing in many parts of the country, but not in Milwaukee. That’s because so many homes in Milwaukee are in foreclosure. George Young has lived at the corner of 17th and Locust for 17 years. His home is located between a house that’s boarded up, and one that’s up for rent.”
“You’re stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Young.’
‘The zombie housing effect has also played a role in lower property values. When the property goes into foreclosure, and the real estate taxes go into delay, the homeowner believes they no longer own the house and leave.’
‘At that point, neither the city nor the lender can take action right away. “What happens after they leave, some of the vandals come in and stripe it of the valuable copper, the piping, and the electrical wire,” said Dr. Eppli. “Making that house go from maybe $50,000 to $75,000 after it’s striped close to zero.”
maybe HA’s %50 a sq ft homes have no plumbimg , definitely pvc, not copper
Santa Monica, CA Housing Prices Plunge 5%
http://www.movoto.com/santa-monica-ca/market-trends/
Palo Alto, CA Housing Prices Plunge 39%
Now that is funny! You must have a degree from Stanford to complete that housing analysis!
There are zombie foreclosures all over this country. Including one in the nabe where I grew up. House was abandoned after a divorce that happened almost two years ago.
‘What began as a rarely used path to U.S. citizenship for wealthy foreigners has become big business in American real estate, one that Congress is considering for reform. The EB-5 immigrant investor program allows citizens of foreign countries to acquire U.S. visas by investing a minimum of $500,000 into American businesses so long as the money creates at least 10 jobs.’
‘A few years ago the program was barely used. By one count, only 346 such visas were issued nationwide in 2005. But as real estate developers and other firms looked for investors willing to fund their projects following the recession, EB-5 became a popular source of capital, particularly for hotel and mixed-use real estate projects in California, New York, Florida and D.C.’
‘In 2011, 3,340 visas were issued in the program, according to the EB-5 Investment Coalition, a trade group. The number jumped to 6,628 in 2012 and 8,543 in 2013. Last year a record 10,692 EB-5 visas were issued, according to the real estate services firm Savills.’
‘But some say that as the program has grown, regulation of it has fallen behind. There have been recent allegations of fraud. Last week the Securities & Exchange Commission charged two firms that were not registered for the program with illegally brokering more than $79 million in investments. The companies, one of which is based in Florida, didn’t admit to wrongdoing but agreed to be censured and not to commit similar violations in the future, according to the SEC.’
‘Other criticisms of the program are that it has not done enough to benefit targeted poor areas — particularly in rural communities — and that its vetting process may not meet national security guidelines. About 85 percent of the EB-5 visas issued in 2013 went to China, with others going to South Korea, Japan, Great Britain, Russia and other countries, according to another trade group, Invest in the USA.’
What began as a rarely used path to U.S. citizenship for wealthy foreigners
I seem to recall this program (or one similar to it) being around and used 30+ years ago. Except back then you had to invest in a business and hire people. Just buying a mansion didn’t cut it, IIRC.
This is why you see Indian families owning run down hotels in the middle of nowhere.
Just buying a mansion doesn’t cut it now either.
It’s why hotels are popular as a type of investment (lots of permanent jobs, not just temporary construction jobs).
The house across the street, which I estimate to be 50K overpriced (more like $150K), sold within 5 days of being listed, and I found it back the market during my due diligence last night. It was pending for 3 days. Buyer must have awaken from the spell the their agent cast on them.
I head another agent tell their buyer, our neighborhood wasn’t worth the listing price, and the young couple replied that thought the seller was delusional.
Happy to see buyers applying logic. Evidently, those emotional trigger/anchor classes aren’t working for the agents. (I’ve taken them, and had to shower after.)
Our guy was a straight shooter, and even talked us out of putting in offers. He owned the firm, smart, honest, and after escrow closed, showed up to help us (for 2 months after closing). Even did free trash runs for us.
Bad edit jobs, oops, sorry. Sugar hangover
What I’ve never quite understood are these multi SFH landlords. I’d rather buy a REIT in this day and age, and leave the headaches to someone else. The cost of opportunity is less, and you have less headaches. Maybe pre 2002, it was a fair business. Now, you’d be nuts or a Ben Jones type.
Some of the Apt REITs have performed well.
I used to rent from a lady who had several SFH properties in Tucson and Scottsdale. Her tenant horror stories scared me away from that business.
‘The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank of International Settlements has warned. The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.’
‘These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates.’
‘Claudio Borio, head of the organisation’s monetary and economic department, said: “Persistent exceptionally low rates reflect the central banks’ and market participants’ response to the unusually weak post-crisis recovery as they fumble in the dark in search of new certainties.”
‘G3 real interest rates have never been so low for so long’
“Rather than just reflecting the current weakness, they may in part have contributed to it by fuelling costly financial booms and busts and delaying adjustment. The result is too much debt, too little growth and too low interest rates. In short, low rates beget lower rates.”
‘The BIS warned that interest rates have now been so low for so long that central banks are unequipped to fight the next crises. “In some jurisdictions, monetary policy is already testing its outer limits, to the point of stretching the boundaries of the unthinkable,” the BIS said.’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html
other than san fran and seattle-what markets are still perky?
According to my house hunting colleagues, Denver is still very perky. One of them told me that a house he put a bid on had 10 other offers. Needless to say, he didn’t get to buy the house.
sorry, forgot den and FT COLLINS the true center of the universe
hope your friend visits this bb
Traffic was insane when I lived there 25 years ago. I can’t imagine what it must be like now.
I-25 was heavily expanded on the south side. I don’t go down to Denver often, but the traffic I’ve experienced there is nothing compared to LA.
I’m thinking of College ave. Never went down to denver much.
I have not posted on this blog since probably 2008 but occasionally read it.
We bought our Denver house in 2010 and just sold our house in May. In our opinion, we received a fairly good price but if our particular buyer had not come along, I think our house would still be sitting on the market.
The Denver market appeared to be bubbly up to March/April but houses are now sitting with little activity.
Some of these houses are obviously overpriced but others are not so much. I assume that the lower end of the market is doing better (haven’t researched it) but our price range of $600,000 to $900,000 has certainly stalled.
The Denver Post and other local media keep harping that Denver is in a fantastic seller’s market but that was not our experience and it is worse (June) that when our house was on the market.
There is an insane amount of apartment building going on here with more projects in the works. Vacant rentals are starting to flood the market…. The influx of migrants to Colorado appears to be ending as oil/gas and construction employment has peaked and is on the descent.
If it’s more than $140k, it’s overpriced.
I remember your screen name, good to see you post again.
Denver is an interesting example. What’s going on there didn’t just happen. It built and built into a frenzy. Of course the Post is caught up in it, a real mania requires maximum participation. You can almost feel the giddiness in the reports. Money, baby, we’re all getting rich! It’s impossible I guess to talk about problems when it’s at such a fever pitch. No one will believe you. But it’s at such moments mistakes are made. I posted a report on some insane amount paid for an apartment location there recently. Appraisers, lenders, and most of all buyers have been swept up. I even found one Post report quoting a UHS about how buyers were out-bidding investors!
You’re right, I am seeing multi-family reports that show disaster around the corner. IMO, there will be a tidal-wave of foreclosures in Denver.
And I am already circling the soon to be dead carcass.
Caw Caw!!!
It’s impossible I guess to talk about problems when it’s at such a fever pitch. No one will believe you
I gave up talking about the bubble at the lunch table, as everyone would roll their eyes.
You’re right, I am seeing multi-family reports that show disaster around the corner. IMO, there will be a tidal-wave of foreclosures in Denver.
I think you are right. Of course, reminding people of the previous crash will earn you eye rolls from the polite crowd, and outright derision from the not so polite crowd. As always, they believe that this time it’s different. Nevermind that wages are not in line with prices, not by a long shot.
But my “homeless” coworkers are desperate to buy something, anything, because of FOMO. After all, how long does it take to save 100K in a 401K? Even with aggressive savings it can 5 years or more. When they hear the Highlands Ranch and Broomfield crowds brag about 100K in appreciation in a year or two, FOMO kicks in and hard.
Hey…. it’s their losses to sustain. And we all know and understand the massive losses built into buying a house at current grossly inflated prices.
Do they not see prices falling in Denver?
Some of these houses are obviously overpriced but others are not so much. I assume that the lower end of the market is doing better (haven’t researched it) but our price range of $600,000 to $900,000 has certainly stalled.
FWIW, my coworkers are looking for houses well below that price range. I don’t know anyone out here who has a 900K house.
The 600+ homes in south Denver area, Doug Co etc. are piling up like cord wood - keep an eye on it week by week and the sales vs. those newly on line are out of balance. hmmmmm….could be a bug hits windshield moment very soon. Deal is I don’t have a crystal ball - just a gut level sense of what is going on out there.
The hell hole that is Ch*tcago - what I see here is an increase in the number of existing used homes going up on market all over the city and burbs - this just in the last few weeks. Seems that something has triggered this - not sure what though.
“…our price range of $600,000 to $900,000 has certainly stalled.”
That’s some pretty tall cotton… way out of my league.
Portland OR is still a hotbed of housing price insanity. That’s remarkable because there is only one Fortune 500 company headquartered there that pays well enough to afford housing.
So I took the opportunity to list and sell my condo across the Columbia River in Vancouver WA in 12 days. It’s in a building constructed in 2004-2005. The developer still owns a few units in the building, thanks to the last housing crash, but they’ve been selling quickly, so I figured it was time to get the hell out.
In Palm Springs CA, where I rent an apartment, home prices have softened a lot. Sellers are still pretty delusional and think buyers should still cough up 30-50% more than the current tax appraisal value. I’m not stupid enough to join that party…
Seattle, WA Housing Prices Fall 9%
http://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98105/home-values/
12.5% 1-year change 8.2% 1-year forecast
HA try again
*Click* the drop down box and select sale price. Down 9% YoY.
tisk…. must I always do the analysis for you?
I’ve been following the Zestimate data for Seattle for several months. This is the first time I’ve seen Zillow adjust its “market temperature” from “very hot” to “hot.”
Strange. Isn’t it falling prices that would make a market hot?
Wrong again, HA . . .
Boots-on-the-ground data, my friend:
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2015/06/29/most-new-listings-being-immediately-snatched-up/
Look at the “Stale Listings 2000-Present” data - it’s gone negative for the first time since 2000. We have surpassed Housing Bubble 1.0 in every possible way now.
Data my friend.
Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Fall 8%
http://www.movoto.com/kirkland-wa/market-trends/
My boots-on-ground data trumps your phony internet data any day of the week. Maybe you should get out more.
Refute the data my friend.
Plano, TX Housing Inventory Exlodes 126%; Prices Plunge 20%
http://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/
Better check your meds.
Plano and Kirkland - wow, those places might as well be on different planets.
Like I said, better check with your doctor.
Falling housing prices.
Arvada, CO Housing Prices Fall 12%
http://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/
Snapped up. It’s supposed to be snapped up.
I heard they are having fire sales in some parts of Seattle.
I heard they are having fire sales in some parts of Seattle.
You obviously aren’t located in Seattle; they are having bidding wars locally from all that I hear (multiple reports from people that I work with who are trying to buy).
The only thing having a fire sale in the area is the Olympic Peninsula:
http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20150627/NEWS/306279991
No it’s reality. You have millions of foreclosed, defaulted and delinquent houses across the state of WA.
Renton, WA Housing Prices Fall 5%; Inventory Balloons 108%
http://www.movoto.com/renton-wa/market-trends/
Renton, WA Housing Prices Fall 5%; Inventory Balloons 108%
Yes, I have noticed the inventory increase significantly in the Seattle area; I am hoping that eventually that turns into a softening market and a return to sanity. But I’m not holding my breath.
p.s.: price-per-sq-ft is up 4% YoY even in Renton.
It is the falling transaction price that is important here. $/sq ft will fall as demand plummets and transaction prices continue to crater.
“Hawks said he knows a woman who owns a roughly 4,000-square-foot house in the upscale Henderson foothills community of MacDonald Highlands who hasn’t made a mortgage payment in more than 4 1/2 years.”
Much like 80%+ of mortgages in CA. Why pay your mortgage when foreclosure moratoriums stall the inevitable?
how many gov programs and taxpayer $ go to propping up prices??
Foreclosure moratoriums and dumb.borrowed.money.
Look out below.
Denver, CO Housing Prices Fall 11%
http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/
I think the biggest problem with our society is nobody feels the pain of loosing OPM. If it was their hard earned cash would they overbid and take on such large debts??
Have you ever successfully paid off $100,000 with your own money? if you have you’d never overpay on a property with your own money. People who “feel” the weight of their decisions typically make wiser ones.
Hmmm … and yet we have had record numbers of cash only (no mortgage) buyers.
According to?
Margin off stocks, self directed or foreign funny money is NOT CASH.
Hard earned money taken from your savings account or sale of assets is.
foreign funny money is NOT CASH
So the USDs foreigners bring to the USA is not cash?
It’s borrowed money.
Mercer Island, WA Housing Prices Fall 16%
http://www.zillow.com/mercer-island-wa-98040/home-values/
You don’t need CNBC or Fox business to tell Americans how things are progressing. Just take a stroll and good look at your local mall, see the stress on their face, the stare at any thing reduced 50% and still don’t have packages when they leave the store. The “I bump into you sorry” and they want to hit you look, not say that is okay no worries.
Nobody whistles anymore we all no why, nobody makes eye contact because they are enthralled at getting away from their problems by playing silly games with the “I” phone.
Yes, the smile, the packages, the hop in a persons step is all you need the know things are good in America, I don’t see that anywhere we travel?
Take a trip out to Santa Barbara some day, lots of smiling faces.
Malls…yuk??? Most of us just use Amazon or dress head to toe in Costco.
Young people are going for quality, not quantity. A new i6 and good headphones replaces tons of gear we used to have in our LR 15 yrs ago.
My guess is, you are a man?
All the young women I see are very much opting for quantity over quality, snapping up “fast fashion” clothing at Zara and Target and Forever 21. The nicer department stores are not doing well.
And buying an iPhone is using the advance in technology to chase portability and versatility. It’s irrelevant to quality/quantity.
oxide
As a former DK and Jones NY gal, I can’t buy good brands anymore, knowing they are now offshore brands, and the quality isn’t there. I have good brands from 20 years ago, that haven’t worn due to good textiles and workmanship.
I can’t buy good brands anymore, knowing they are now offshore brands, and the quality isn’t there.
That’s the MO (and tragedy) of our age: create a brand based on quality materials and workmanship, then “monetize” that brand by selling as much as possible of the product while slowly degrading the quality until it is absolute garbage. End result: the brand is destroyed, but it has been turned into $$$s in the process.
Can’t wait to git back to camp at El Capitan once they get all the oil out of the sand. Sad panda.
Doom ++1 on your observation….affirms what I see more and more.
I just explained to the door man at the Merchandise Mart here in Ch*tcago this morning that the folks just are in a particularly sour mood today - more than normal and THAT is saying something - even the young hipsters heading to work in outfits that would have had me on the street a mere 15 to 20 years ago look particularly glum. There is a courseness to them that I can’t quite put my finger on ‘cepting the knowledge that they are buried in debt and cant’ afford an umbrella to protect their sore heads during the drizzle rain we had here this morning.
A hard rain is comin to Merika there folks - a very hard rain.
‘Real estate agents say banks don’t want to flood the market with listings. That could push down prices valleywide, limiting lenders’ ability to recoup their losses from soured mortgages. Today, even though there are more repossessions, lenders might not list the homes right away for that same reason.’
Just another day of market rigging. Right out in the open, for years now. Funny, nobody ever mentions the accounting rule change that lets lenders get away with this.
Agree on the accounting rule change. I wonder what would happen if the book value of a house, after a certain amount of time in limbo, reverted its most recent tax assessment. That would panic the entire industry (and I would buy stock in Home Depot).
What was the accounting rule before, Ben? Value dictated by comps/appraisals?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_value_accounting_and_the_subprime_mortgage_crisis
Information on Vegas housing is readily available online. So it’s easy to see that many listings in Vegas are from flippers who are trying to liquidate their bargain foreclosure purchases from 2011/2012 for twice what they paid 3-4 years ago. The banksters see this, and figure they can cut out the flippers if they just hang on to the properties for awhile.
The problem is that there has been no real economic recovery in Vegas, so Vegas housing, even at 40-50% less than Housing Bubble I peak pricing, is still greatly overpriced.
And with Lake Mead drying up, all Vegas housing could go to zero in a few years when there is no more water.
And the market rigging and accounting fraud isn’t just in Vegas. I’m the executor of an estate whose one remaining asset is an underwater condo in an undesirable neighborhood in Columbus, OH. The bank won’t foreclose because they’d have to pay the condo fees, and they’d have to recognize a 50-80% loss on the mortgage balance. In the meantime, I can’t close out the estate until the condo is foreclosed.
Unbelievable!
The bank won’t foreclose because they’d have to pay the condo fees, and they’d have to recognize a 50-80% loss on the mortgage balance. In the meantime, I can’t close out the estate until the condo is foreclosed.
Have you asked them whether they would accept a deed-in-lieu? I would guess that that would likely be the most expeditious way to resolve the issue and close out the estate. They would likely accept, since it would be a lower-cost option for them. And there is obviously no other source of funds to be attached in the future for any shortage.
‘higher lot prices’
The land bubble boils away. Then the builders say, “I can only build $300,000 houses and up.” How many of these markets have we seen lot prices double or triple in a few years? But there’s no bubble.
There is no shortage of land anywhere, not Tokyo, not Memphis. The prices have gone up too far too fast to build affordable housing.
Oh dear…
http://www.movoto.com/palo-alto-ca/market-trends/
FWIW, price per sq/ft hasn’t gone down … yet.
It’s the falling transaction price that is important here. $/sq ft will fall as demand plummets and transaction prices continue to crater.
Good to see…BTW the Press Democrat article in the header claims Sonoma Co. (90 mile north of Palo Alto) inventory is down from a year ago. I find that very hard to believe given that inventory in Santa Rosa (the biggest town in the county) has very nearly doubled in that period but have not been able to find a site that lists inventory data by county…anybody know of one??
FWIW the Santa Rosa inventory data is at
http://www.movoto.com/santa-rosa-ca/market-trends/#city=&time=5Y&metric=Inventory&type=0
Palo Alto, CA Housing Demand Falls 18% YoY; At 2009 Level
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
‘After once being so desperate to sell his Miami condo that he once offered four club seats to Super Bowl XLV back in 2010 to anyone who would buy the place, Shawn Marion finally rid himself of his rather luxurious living space.’
‘However, Marion did have to sell it at a loss. After buying the 7, 373 square foot property for a little less than $2.5 million in 2008, The Matrix sold the six bedroom, seven bathroom home for $1.8 million.’
http://nextimpulsesports.com/2015/06/29/shawn-marion-offloads-miami-condo-for-1-8-million/
‘The wave of new development already surging from Boston into Quincy is bound to spill over into communities farther south, business groups and local officials say. Quincy’s market for new apartment and condo buildings is as hot as it’s been in decades.’
‘Braintree has several big commercial and residential projects in the pipeline. And Weymouth is waiting – and hoping – for the massive redevelopment of a former Navy air base to finally take off.’
“It hits the immediate bordering communities, and that starts to ripple down,” South Shore Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Peter Forman said. “Over time, what you’re going to see is a whole thread of activity throughout the entire region. That just creates a much stronger regional economy than one or two hot projects.”
‘The spillover from Boston has been most apparent in Quincy, where developers have begun work or are planning 12 different projects that will add more than 1,400 apartments, condos and townhouses. Another 10 proposed projects that have yet to receive city approval would add 1,347 more housing units.’
‘City Planning Director Dennis Harrington said the pace of construction in the city is as hot as he’s seen it since the 1985 boom. Many of the developers coming into the city have already done projects in Boson before moving south.’
“I see a lot of names and people that are new to Quincy who have been developing units in South Boston, the South End and Savin Hill,” Harrington said. “They’ve migrated to Quincy, and from Quincy they’ll continue into Weymouth and Braintree.”
‘Quincy issued more than 3,780 permits for new construction, building renovations or additions in 2014. Those permits represented an estimated $169 million in value, including the cost of construction and labor, according to the city.’
‘Weymouth issued about 1,570 permits valued at $50.3 million, and Braintree issued 1,440 valued at $55.7 million.’
http://braintree.wickedlocal.com/article/20150629/NEWS/150626706/?Start=1
Some douche just bought & tore down a house on my street in a 2nd-rate suburb of Boston. A few months from now there will be another 2-family monstrosity on this street, a cookie-cutter POS with paper-thin walls on a 5,000 SF lot (at best). Each side will sell for $750K, hopefully just before the retards who buy them get their asses handed to them by an economy that has finally faced its mounting and undeniable problems. I’m like 50% cash, bitchez. Bring it. I hope Greece and China seriously shit the bed in the next few weeks.
“DO NOT USE REDFIN TO SELL YOUR HOME!!!”
http://redfin.pissedconsumer.com/seller-beware-do-not-use-redfin-to-sell-your-home-20150618652687.html
There are many sketchy things going on with this outfit.
Hi, everybody. You haven’t seen a bubble until you come to North TX. The Dallas Fed says manufacturing here is slowing yet again but D Magazine says there’s a land rush and is full of realtor ads.
Will someone please blow this place up?
I flipped my place in Austin (bought 2010) last year. Who in their right mind would buy in this hell hole now.
Grossly inflated prices 250% higher than trend is the problem. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is the solution.
58$ oil doesn’t matter in Texas
Are you sure?
McKinney, TX Housing Prices Fall 14%
http://www.movoto.com/mckinney-tx/market-trends/
Wow txchic welcome back. Can’t believe we’re all still here, a decade on. It was 10 years ago this summer I discovered this blog, wandering around the internet hoping someone would be able to explain the madness I saw going on around me.
Hey txchick, good to see you drop by! Long time no see!
‘It’s been a strange few weeks in Reston Real Estate. Moving into summer the market seemed to throw on the breaks — calls to other agent confirmed that it wasn’t just my listings that were not being shown. I don’t know if it was the crush of end of school year activities or what but it felt like the air had come out of the balloon!’
http://www.restonnow.com/2015/06/29/reston-real-estate-just-sold-24/
‘Imagine having a home loan where you only had to pay the interest each month, while ignoring the principal. Sounds great, right? It would certainly reduce the size of your monthly payments, freeing up cash for other purposes.’
‘There is such a loan. It’s called the interest-only mortgage loan, and it appears to have made a comeback over the last couple of years. In 2015, a number of lenders are offering this type of product.’
http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/interest-only-loans-risky-649/#ixzz3eUa3Qf9D
‘Yields on Portuguese 10-year bonds spiked 47 basis points to 3.17pc before falling back as hedge funds look more closely at other EMU crisis states suffering from political dissent and austerity fatigue.’
‘The sell-off ripped though debt markets in southern and eastern Europe. Yields jumped 24 basis points in Italy and Spain, and 22 points in Romania. German Bund yields dropped 13 points to 0.79pc on safe-haven flight.’
‘The iTraxx Crossover index measuring risk on European corporate bonds jumped 42 basis points to 332 in one of the most violent one-day moves since the Lehman crisis in 2008, an ominous sign that any fall-out from ‘Grexit’ may be harder to contain that supposed.’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11707092/Greece-threatens-top-court-action-to-block-Grexit.html
Hey wannabe troll missmarket,
I’ve bought more houses than you’ll ever live in. C-ya!
The Dingbat Brigade needs valium.
I didn’t realize how absurd the Dallas market was until I read the link a nice person posted the other day.
I read the charts and looked at the houses for sale,
shocking for me,
$430.000 for a regular (but nice) house built in the 70’s,
one of the reasons I had to come back here was that there is a bubble in Mississippi, so that must mean something LOL
I’m planning to go to N Texas late July and shoot a youtube on what’s going on north of Dallas. I was there last summer and I’ve made some comments on it. I don’t think most people believe the words I used to describe it, so I’m going to show them.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Fall 9%
http://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75219/home-values/
I’m in North Texas, and it truly is crazy. Every time I go into Starbucks, it’s full of realtors and their marks (usually very young couples). Even when I sit there minding my own business, they just can’t resist. I’ve been handed several free pens with realtor info on it. They must be a little bit desperate, because they are comstantly trolling.
I’m in North Texas, and it truly is crazy. Every time I go into Starbucks, it’s full of realtors and their marks (usually very young couples). Even when I sit there minding my own business, they just can’t resist. I’ve been handed several free pens with realtor info on it. They must be a little bit desperate, because they are constantly trolling.
Dan, check the Chinese stocks right now. And don’t go near any lofty windows.
’tis but a scratch!