The Housing Bubble

Borrow from Peter to pay Paul.

It’s biblical.

The borrower is slave to the lender.

It’s biblical.

“An honest man pays what he owes”

It’s impossible.

From Peter to PayPal.

It’s Ebay.

monetarism is a school of thought that emphasizes the role of governments in controlling the amount of money in circulation. Monetarists believe that variation in the money supply has major influences on national output in the short run and the price level over longer periods, and that objectives of monetary policy are best met by targeting the growth rate of the money supply rather than by engaging in discretionary monetary policy.

Keynesian economists often argue that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes which require active policy responses by the public sector, in particular, monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government, in order to stabilize output over the business cycle.

Keynesians spread the wealth with government spending that creates jobs and tax policy that spreads the wealth. They increase demand thus stimulating the private sector. Monetarists concentrate the wealth by inflating asset prices, forcing the masses to spend more of their paycheck on needs and less on wants thus they hurt the private sector in the long run.

The monetarist system will increase GDP when households can easily spend more - When the wife can go to work, when there are savings that can be spent or money that can be borrowed. Once this comes to an end then all monetarists do is shift spending from wants to needs driving down economic output and employment. That’s where we are now. There has been no New Deal, there has been no forcing gamblers to take their losses.

The Keynesian central banking

Keynes was not a fan of money printing or pure monetary policy. He thought it was a weak instrument at best for economic stimulation. David Stockman should know better.

Monetarists also create bubbles, no ore investing on fundamentals or good execution. Successful investing Is best accomplished using insider information and market manipulation via the press.

Currently tax and trade and regulation and gov policy and fed policy is continuing to concentrate wealth and destroy demand.

This is what you get when corporatist globalists take control

‘controlled burn’

You like catchy sayin’s. Like “paper glut”. Sorry, catchy sayin’s is not a strategy.

‘Bear market’ is another catchy saying that seems to be gaining traction.

Because it was a paper gut we do not go down into the twenties for oil like you suggested we might. However, this is far more important than short term movements in the Chinese stock market, the Chinese currency is becoming more accepted on a world wide basis:

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-06/29/content_21137353.htm

Good morning Mr. Daniel Crowman.

According to the CIA, any one who thinks the Chinese have $21 Trillion in their savings accounts is a macaroon.

Widely reported and based on M2 numbers. Also consistent with the fact while China probably has total debt equal to 280% of its GDP, its external debt is only 6% and I have posted that link many times. Thus if it has not borrowed overseas to finance its debt it must have borrowed the money internally. One person’s debt is another person’s asset.

“One person’s debt is another person’s asset.”

Only as long as its collectible.

I find it amusing that nobody believes the numbers generated by Washington and the Banksters, while the numbers generated by the Kremlin and the PRC are taken as gospel.

Not to worry. The groundwork has already been laid for the Chinese robber barons to GTFOO Shanghai, and haul azz here, with their swindled billions, and set up shop in “business friendly” USA.

Perhaps this is an explanation of how all Chinese save 40% of their income. They borrow 80% of their income. Brilliant!

Savings account deposits in China do not = $21 Trillion. Blatantly stupid.

I am still waiting for you to show any proof that they do not have 21 trillion.

And you are backtracking no one said they were all in savings account deposits

http://www.theage.com.au/business/china/with-28-trillion-in-savings-chinese-are-set-to-change-the-world-20150626-ghy4×1

Excerpt:

Few events will be as significant for the world in the next 15 years as China opening its capital borders, a shift that economists and regulators across the world are now starting to grapple with.

With China’s leadership aiming to scale back the role of investment in the domestic economy, the nation’s surfeit of savings - deposits currently stand at $US21 trillion ($27.2 trillion) - will increasingly need to be deployed overseas. That’s also becoming easier, as Premier Li Keqiang relaxes capital-flow regulations.

The consequences ultimately could rival the transformation wrought by the Communist nation’s fusion with the global trading system, capped by its 2001 World Trade Organisation entry. That stage saw goods made cheaper across the world, boosting the purchasing power of low-income families at the cost of hollowed-out industries.

‘Chinese buy almost a quarter of new homes in Sydney and their outlay will more than double to $60 billion in the six years to 2020, according to Credit Suisse predictions.’

‘In The US, Chinese buyers topped Canadians to rank as the biggest foreign purchasers of homes by sales and dollar volume in the year through March, accounting for more than a quarter of all international spending.’

Buy high, sell low. Stupidest speculators ever. How many Audi’s have they lost this week?

Chinese venture capitalist are looking for US high tech companies that need money the catch is you need to move to China.

Kinda like Texas.

Chinese buy almost a quarter of new homes in Sydney and their outlay will more than double to $60 billion in the six years to 2020, according to Credit Suisse predictions.’

Since they are now “stealing” Australia’s coal, iron ore, oil and natural gas, they have to do something with all that saved money. $60 billion? Heck that is not even China’s trade surplus for one month.

I’ve noticed you stay away from the links I post about Chinese money-laundering. Here’s one from yesterday:

‘The “wall of Chinese capital” hitting property markets in Sydney and Melbourne will not ease up until the government introduces its anti-money laundering legislation, says an expert in ‘flight capital’.

‘James Tee, an ethnic Chinese property developer whose business specialises in “capital expatriation” – that is, getting money out of China and into his property developments in Malaysia – told Fairfax Media the exodus of capital from China was accelerating, thanks to the government’s anti-corruption drive.’

“We have been tracking this for two years,” says Tee. Those outflows from China are compounded by the flight of capital out of Canada which is now “bursting” to find a home in Australia.’

‘Due to the bubble in Canadian house prices and ensuing concerns over social dislocation, Canada’s government shut down its investor visa program last year. Some 40,000 Chinese visa applicants with a minimum loan to governments of $C800,000 were handed back their capital.’

“That’s roughly $32 billion,” says Tee. “The Canadian government said: ‘We don’t want your money anymore’ and that capital is now hitting the Sydney market. There is a mountain of liquidity. China is bursting with flight capital. They can’t go to the US, they can’t get it into Singapore anymore, or Hong Kong.”

‘Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne don’t reflect market fundamentals as Chinese investors are not worried about a property crash since their principal objective is parking money in a secure environment offshore rather than achieving an investment return. “That means they can afford to take a 20 per cent to 30 per cent haircut,” says Tee.’

“Sydney becoming like Singapore and Hong Kong where an entire generation has been locked out of the property market. There are social consequences for this. I don’t think anybody understands just how much money is coming in. The anti-corruption drive in China … they [the government of Premier Xi Jinping] are really serious about it”.

‘Indeed, the dramatic effects have been felt in Macau where the crackdown on black money leaving China has seen gross gaming revenues drop by 39 per cent in the month of April, representing 11 successive months of decline.’

“Obviously the slowdown in Macau is more severe in truth than any of the operators foresaw. I don’t think any of the operators could have predicted what has happened now,” James Packer told CNBC last month. “As an Australian investor in China and Macau, it’s very hard to be critical of a corruption crackdown … [but] when and how that ends is something that no one knows.”

‘Tee says recent figures in the media which put Chinese investment in the Sydney property market at 25 per cent of total sales were too low. He says it might be twice this level but it is hard to tell because of the lack of transparency on ownership.’

‘Most Chinese purchases hide behind trustees and proxies. Third parties such as friends and relatives were often used. “Chinese students are being paid 2 per cent of the purchase price of the property to purchase property on behalf of relatives,” says Tee.’

‘Another person au fait with Chinese property transactions in Australia told Fairfax Media it was simple for Chinese investors to get around the foreign capital restrictions. “The money never really moves. In a simple example, Kunlun is a forex trading and money exchange company. It has bank accounts in many countries with significant cash balances. So if someone wants $40 million in Australia they put the money in a Kunlun China account and Kunlun transfers the money from their Australian accounts to the person’s friend’s Australian account.”

“Kunlun is just one example – any large trading multinational will hold large reserves of cash in each country so they can effect a transfer with an internal paper transaction. No banks or government scrutiny involved. And given that they don’t do effective reporting in this country, who will ever trace it?”

“The current situation is that one of the best assets a local Chinese can have is a permanent Australian residence. They will have ‘friends’ lining up to ‘loan’ them money to buy properties in Australia. All the government needs to do is follow the cash.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9100#comment-2456537

They’re a bunch of crooks, looting their country and running off with the money. Hardly a wealth building activity.

No, but their factories are creating wealth. A 65 billion dollar trade surplus per month is amazing. If wealth really starts to pour out of China it is going to inflate housing prices throughout the world, thus I do not know why this board thinks that their ability to get a good price on a house is enhanced by a collapse of China. The slowing of the world has been caused in large part by China hoarding the cash of the world. It is the paradox of thrift on a world wide basis.

“no one said they were all in savings account deposits”

IIRC that was what the article you linked to when you first boasted of this claimed. Savings deposits. In banks.

Maybe he meant loans outstanding?

If the Chinese have so much hard-earned money in the bank, I wonder why so many stopped gambling in Macau once the anti-corruption efforts began to bite?

I wonder why so many stopped gambling in Macau once the anti-corruption efforts began to bite?

It is not about the amount of money they have in the bank, it is the fear that government might find out how it got there. BTW, the World Bank has just estimated that China will grow 7.1% this year and 7% next year.

I wonder why so many stopped gambling in Macau once the anti-corruption efforts began to bite?

That actually surprised me, because…

It is not about the amount of money they have in the bank, it is the fear that government might find out how it got there.

…fake gambling “winnings” are a great way to launder money, turning corruptly-generated funds into nice, “clean” I-won-it-gambling funds.

Just being in Macau can get you investigated and big winnings usually means you were betting big and that is a red flag for the Chinese authorities.

Have you ever seen just how much money the SS trust fund would have had it been able to invest in the stock market in the 1950s until now. I am not saying it would be an ideal time to start investing in the market but historically the return on stocks is higher than the return on bonds, thus the SS fund would not be facing bankruptcy had we done it and it could even afford to meet Liz Warren’s proposals. By avoiding investing in the market we have made the fund poorer and people like Buffett richer.

But an even bigger problem is unlike actually investing in something like stocks that have a real value, the entire “trust fund” does not even exist since it relies entirely on the ability of the government to fund the payments think of Greece right now:

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/09/misleading-the-public-how-the-social-security-trust-fund-really-works

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/08/07/opinion/l-yes-invest-social-security-in-stock-market-710881.html

“Have you ever seen just how much money the SS trust fund would have had it been able to invest in the stock market in the 1950s until now.”

According to macaroon attorney economics?

“Yes, Invest Social Security in Stock Market
Published: August 7, 1996″

You had to go back all the way to 1996, before the tech stock crash and the housing bubble and crash, to find a NYTs Op-ed piece that supports your position?

I wanted it from a real journalist’s paper.

BTW, this is what I have said about the Chinese market over the last few months, it is funny when being dead on correct is considered to be grounds for eating crow:

Comment by Albuquerquedan

2015-06-28 09:49:46

What I said:

Comment by Albuquerquedan

2015-04-03 07:08:11

I do not own any Chinese stocks so I have no worries. You are six months too late to buy Chinese stocks.

Comment by Albuquerquedan

2015-06-28 10:14:40

And I said this and it does not matter since China does not need a bull market to achieve 7% growth:
Comment by Albuquerquedan

2015-06-19 06:23:35

P.S. by the way I never said the Chinese market would not correct, in fact I said the opposite, it would correct but it would be dangerous to try to time it and I would avoid the market at these levels. Now, if you want to make a bet on how far it will fall, I will say this, when the dust settles on the correction the market(s) will still be significantly higher than it was last summer although an ugly thirty to forty percent correction certainly cannot be ruled out. That number includes the amount it has already fallen so it would be twenty to thirty percent from here. On the other hand the Chinese government could announce no further tightening of margin requirements and it could be up big Monday. The reason I want nothing to do with that market.

The China bubble is deflating.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/New-houses-cost-climb-in-June/shdaily.shtml

Excerpt:

New houses cost climb in June

By Cherry Cao | July 1, 2015, Wednesday | Online Edition

THE average cost of new houses in China climbed for the second consecutive month with more cities registering price growth, the China Index Academy said in a report released today.

New residential properties in 100 cities were sold for an average 10,628 yuan (1,710) per square meter in June, a month-over-month increase of 0.56 percent, the academy said. That compared to a 0.45-percent rise in May, which was the first monthly gain since February.

Nationwide, prices rose in 53 cities from the previous month, compared to 48 in May. Prices fell in 46 cities while remained flat in one.

Of the country’s 10 largest cities including Beijing and Shanghai, the average new home price climbed 1.09 percent from May to 19,357 yuan per square meter. The increase also accelerated from May’s 0.99 percent gain.

Among the 100 cities, Shenzhen led all gainers with a month-on-month price increase of 6.6 percent for new residential properties whereas Maanshan, a city in eastern Anhui Province, suffered a price retreat of more than 2 percent, the largest of all, according to the academy.

“With market sentiment continuing to rebound in first-tier as well as some of the second-tier cities, housing prices in those cities will probably extend their strength as developers’ pressure from high inventory further alleviates,” the academy said. “Meanwhile, prices will likely remain rather stable in cities where inventory remains at high levels with developers being extremely cautious about raising their prices.”

In Shanghai, new home prices rose to the highest ever in June with particularly strong sales recorded during the last few days of the month, according to a latest industry report.

The area of new homes sold in the city increased 3.9 percent month on month to 1.48 million square meters in June, the highest monthly volume recorded so far this year. By average price, they rose 7.7 percent from May to a record 34,345 yuan per square meter, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said today.

“The fact that a growing number of home buyers chasing after luxury and high-end homes was the main reason behind the record price,” said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Deovolente. “We expect this trend to extend through the second half of this year with monthly average price of new homes staying above the 30,000 yuan per square meter threshold.”

In a separate report released today by Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co, half of the city’s ten most sought after residential projects in June were sold for more than 40,000 yuan per square meter.

Falling housing prices, falling commodities, collapsing demand.

In Shanghai, new home prices rose to the highest ever in June with particularly strong sales recorded during the last few days of the month, according to a latest industry report.

This is really important. The Chinese bull market was beginning to hurt the Chinese economy. People did not want to spend money, they wanted it in the market since the expected it to more than double in a short time. People were spending too much time watching the market and not working. Thus the reason for the controlled burn. Now, more money will be spent on homes and vehicles.

Well…. Not really Mr. Crowman.

China Housing Prices Fall Again

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/20150311_china6.jpg

This guy gives a pretty good summary of the true state of China’s economy:

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1318217-the-chinese-economy-besieged-and-embattled-the-real-estate-market/?sidebar=related-below

Some highlights:

“In some first-tier cities, those who own multiple properties have sensed the problem and have tried to sell at the market price. But when the properties are listed, no inquiries are received at all, even after they lower the price significantly.”

“Private sellers are starting to realize that their assets, however high their value looks on paper, have no liquidity. Unfortunately such a realization usually comes too late.”

“But the local governments are even more fearful. The halt in real estate transactions means government revenue is flowing out. Soon the governments will be confronted with all the pains of bankruptcy, like defaulting on salaries, pensions, and healthcare payments.”

“A side effect of this is that the local governments will take every opportunity to exploit people in order to solve their imminent crisis and maintain the regime’s operation. As a result, more frequent and more violent conflicts between the government and the people will ensue, especially over land related disputes.”

“When private investors start thinking about their own profits and stop purchasing property blindly, the economic system will disintegrate due to the lack of fresh blood.”

Mmmmm. Fresh blood.

If the Chinese central government took all the debt owed by the local governments and put it on its books, it would move its debt from 20 percent of GDP to around 45%. Our national debt is around 100% of GDP even excluding what is owned by the Fed and as Illinois shows our state and local debt is huge.

Reported local government debt includes all official loans. Unfortunately, its the high interest shadow loans that are the real problem, and the fact that China’s government is keeping those numbers secret doesn’t bode well.

It would be Ross Perot all over with the result being the same a Clinton in the WH.

The best that could happen would be for Bernie to run as a Green candidate and get more than 5% of the vote and create a party not owned by Wall Street. However, that would elect a Republican so I can see why the left would not like it. The winner take all aspect of our elections locks in the two party system, funny the Supreme Court has never “discovered” a right to proportional representation.

Here’s a headline:

‘Bush likely earned less, paid higher tax rate than Clintons’

We’re all supposed to know which Bush this is. “It’s the next one dummy!”

Marketwatch dot com
Asia Markets
Chinese stocks return to bear market
By Gregor Stuart Hunter
Published: July 1, 2015 6:51 a.m. ET
Reuters

HONG KONG—China’s main market fell sharply after a stretch of calm earlier Wednesday, reviving the choppy trade that dominated the past two weeks and erased some gains from a yearlong bull market.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP, -5.23%) closed down 5.2% after trading largely flat earlier. While the index is off nearly 22% from its mid-June high, pushing it back into bear territory, values have still doubled over the past year. A bear market is defined as a fall of 20% from a high.
…

What does market maturity have to do with collapsing into a bear market at a record setting pace?

You have a lot of people that do not know how to evaluate stocks so they trade solely on emotion. Still does not change the fact that even after the selloff, stocks are up100% YOY and up 20 percent for the year. While U.S. stocks are flat.

“Still does not change the fact that even after the selloff, stocks are up100% YOY and up 20 percent for the year.”

I guess we have different interpretations of what this means. You seem to view this massive volatility as a healthy sign, while I foresee more neophyte Chinese investors choosing to end their lives by jumping off high buildings.

So long as there are investors willing to buy and hold entire cities of empty apartment buildings, I guess the CCP can honestly account for construction of these ghost habitations as a wealth gain?

We would and have. Not that the board wants to read them, I have posted numerous stories about former ghost cities becoming inhabited. Available housing is an asset.

Skylines
China
June 29, 2015
“Enough empty floor space to cover Madrid”: so why are China’s ghost cities still unoccupied?
By Wade Shepard
Ghengis Khan Plaza in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, in 2011. The near-empty city is designed for 1.5m people.
Image: Getty.

Over the past 15 years China has built hundreds of new cities, expanded thousands of urban areas, wiped over a million villages off the map, and urbanised hundreds of millions of people. It’s a development boom that’s incomparable to anything that any other country has ever attempted.

Led by its national urbanisation plan, China has transitioned from a mostly rural country of peasant farmers to one that is defined by its cities. But this urbanisation drive has produced a peculiar side effect: newly built urban areas, even completely new cities, that entirely lack people.

Enough floorspace to cover Hong Kong twice over is being constructed in China’s cities each year. Yet despite the fact that 250m more people are expected to move into cities by 2030, and even though the demand for modern housing is huge, an incredible amount of apartments are currently vacant. At a rough estimate, there are around 600m m2 of floor space still unoccupied – enough to completely cover Madrid.

So – if so many people need homes in China’s cities, then why are there so many of them left empty?
…

“Building empty cities counts as GDP.”

“We would and have. Not that the board wants to read them, I have posted numerous stories about former ghost cities becoming inhabited. Available housing is an asset.”

I believe both of these statements have truth to them. The urbanization of China is happening at a pretty insane pace. My perception is that overbuilding is cured at a pretty fast pace given the rate of urbanization.

HOWEVER (and it’s a big damn however).

As Ben notes, the China “growth miracle” has been largely built on massive investment in infrastructure (homes, railroads, roads, etc.). And that’s all very exciting for the locals to see big projects get built.

HOWEVER, my understanding is that the cost of maintaining that infrastructure has been largely ignored. It’s a tax on big projects that will over time suck more and more capital away from the rest of the economy, and they will need to focus more and more resources on maintaining what they have.

Too much construction related GDP without enough non-construction GDP (to support maintenance of what has been built) will eventually cause big problems.

If you aren’t worried about the pace of growth of the non-construction parts of the Chinese economy, you should be.

My guess is that Jim Rogers understands this. However, I don’t know if it’s even possible to quantify the resources that need to go to maintenance. In large part, this is because the quality of construction affects the amount of resources that need to be dedicated to maintenance, and while we know that China’s infrastructure isn’t at the same level as first-world countries…we just don’t know how bad it is.

“Available housing is an asset.”

If nobody buys it for even the cost of construction, it’s just money down the toilet.

“My perception is that overbuilding is cured at a pretty fast pace”

And there’s your problem Rental_Fraud. You foist your clouded perceptions as truth.

The reality is overbuilding is mis-allocation of capital founded on speculation irrespective of location. For this very reason, the US has 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses.

America had a number of periods of rapid expansion as we transitioned from a developing to a mature economy, and at the end of each of these there was an epic bust. Not to suggest that anything similar is going to happen in China after they have built enough Ghost Cities to house every human on the planet…

“Brother Can You Spare A Dime”

They used to tell me I was building a dream
And so I followed the mob
When there was earth to plow or guns to bear
I was always there, right on the job

They used to tell me I was building a dream
With peace and glory ahead
Why should I be standing in line
Just waiting for bread?

Once I built a railroad, I made it run
Made it race against time
Once I built a railroad, now it’s done
Brother, can you spare a dime?

Once I built a tower up to the sun
Brick and rivet and lime
Once I built a tower, now it’s done
Brother, can you spare a dime?

Once in khaki suits, gee, we looked swell
Full of that Yankee Doodly Dum
Half a million boots went slogging through Hell
And I was the kid with the drum

Say, don’t you remember? They called me ‘Al’
It was ‘Al’ all the time
Why don’t you remember? I’m your pal
Say buddy, can you spare a dime?

Once in khaki suits, ah, gee, we looked swell
Full of that Yankee Doodly Dum
Half a million boots went slogging through Hell
And I was the kid with the drum

Oh, say, don’t you remember? They called me ‘Al’
It was ‘Al’ all the time
Say, don’t you remember? I’m your pal
Buddy, can you spare a dime?

Songwriters
GORNEY, JAY / HARBURG, E. Y.

If nobody buys it for even the cost of construction, it’s just money down the toilet.

Actually, most of the empty houses have been purchased. The reality is there is a cultural difference that makes comparisons between the U.S. and China difficult. When the Chinese buy an investment property they do not rent it out. Thus, you can have a shortage of housing even when there are empty houses. I have to believe if housing prices do not soar, more Chinese will reluctantly decide to be landlords and decide to rent their “investment” houses and they will fill up quite rapidly.

MT now. MT later. MT houses across the globe.

“When the Chinese buy an investment property they do not rent it out.”

Plenty of foolish investors in American residential real estate make thr same mistake.

Come to think of it, lots of investors in U.S. residential RE also are Chinese!

“As much as Southerners”

“us Northerners”

It’s working.

they don’t seem to mind insulting us Northerners by continuing to wave Confederate flags around.

How does the existence of the flag insult you?

Bunch of losers waving the flag of a country they killed many people trying to create.

If you had a father/brother die fighting Nazi Germany, I’m sure you wouldn’t be happy if the Germans continued using the Nazi flag. Especially if they held it up as a symbol of “States Right”

(To kill Jews, exterminate Slavs by starvation for Lebensraum, and use everyone else in the countries they overran forced labor).

So…does the British flag offend you? Folks in the states have relatives that died fighting them. How about the Japanese flag?

Yes, there’s all kinds of history behind all kinds of symbols. Some good, some bad. In the end, it’s just a piece of cloth.

If you want to use a symbol that your forefathers “fought for”, might I suggest using Regimental Flags?

To me, the Confereate flag is a symbol of the attitudes of the people who display them.

Much like chrome “truck nuts” hanging off the trailer hitch.

“If you want to use a symbol that your forefathers “fought for”, might I suggest using Regimental Flags?”

How bout Old Testament Banners or Roman Legionary Standards?

“Japanese Flag”

According to Wikipedia, many people in Japan do not display the National Flag, because of its association with WWII. And was banned from display between 1945 and 1954.

As far as the UK flag, for all I know, my forefathers were on the side of the Recoats.

“Bunch of losers waving the flag of a country they killed many people trying to create.”

It’s working.

TPP - what we don’t know may hurt us

Peter Martin
Economics Editor
June 30, 2015

The US Senate has given the green light, and Australia is set to buckle. If you don’t yet know what TPP stands for, listen up. Our government could sign it within weeks. Only then will we really know what’s in it.

That’s right. As with the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and the Japan-Australia Free Trade Agreement, the content of the Trans-Pacific Partnership will remain secret right up until the day it is signed. Afterwards, our parliament will be able to look at it, but not to change it. Alice is inside the looking glass.

It’s hard to know that you need to write a submission if you don’t know what’s being proposed.

A Senate committee reported on the processes surrounding the TPP on Thursday. It said the parliament would be presented with an all-or-nothing choice. It could examine the TPP (after it had been signed) and either vote for or against it, but not change a word.

http://www.theage.com.au/…/tpp–what-we-dont-know-may-hurt-us-20150629-gi04s9.html -

Hate to tell you, but the fix is in on this.

The opinions of the wretched refuse are not needed, or desired, as far as the TPP are concerned.

Why beat em when u can join them?

Set up a LLC to export pork to Muslims in Malaysia. Then sue them when they put up import barriers.

“Hate to tell you, but the fix is in on this.”

Just on this?

@ X-GSfixr: Nonsense, no one hesitates to display the current Japanese national flag. It’s the old “rising sun” design that is associated with WWII and carries a lot of baggage.

“They knew that to declare the war to be a fight over slavery would cause a lot of the potential soldiers of both sides to refuse to fight.”

“of primary concern to most southern soldiers–the continuation of antebellum southern culture. Although the majority of Southerners had little interest in slaves, slavery was a primary interest of Southern politicians”

Causes of the Civil War: A Balanced Answer

by Gordon Leidner of Great American History

What caused the American Civil War? It is amazing that even today, nearly 150 years after the Civil War started, there is passionate debate regarding the “cause” of the Civil War. Consider this:

It is a fact that when the armies for the North and South were first formed, only a small minority of the soldiers on either side would have declared that the reason they joined the army was to fight either “for” or “against” slavery.

However, equally true is the statement: “Had there been no slavery, there would have been no war. Had there been no moral condemnation of slavery, there would have been no war.” (This was made by Sydney E. Ahlstrome, in his monumental study of religion in America A Religious History of the American People, Yale University Press,1972, on p. 649; it was echoed by Maj. General John B. Gordon, CSA, in his Memoirs, Chapter 1, first page)

The message here is that the reasons a nation goes to war are usually various and complicated. The American Civil War is no exception.

Background

The curious thing is that although slavery was the moral issue of the nineteenth century that divided the political leaders of the land, the average American had very little interest in slaves or slavery. Most Southerners were small farmers that could not afford slaves. Most Northerners were small farmers or tradesmen that had never even seen a slave.

But political leaders on both sides were very interested in slaves and slavery. The South’s economic system was based upon cotton–and slavery. The political leaders of the South, such as Robert Barnwell Rhett of South Carolina, William Lowndes Yancey of Alabama, The Fire Eaters and Robert Augustus Toombs of Georgia, recognized that if the South lost her slaves (i. e., had to pay slaves wages similar to what white laborers were paid), her entire socio-economic system would probably collapse. Hence any political action that took place that threatened the slavery system of the South received the undivided attention of the South’s political leaders, many of whom were themselves slave owners.

Political leaders in the North were much more divided about the slavery issue. Many of the powerful abolitionists, such as William L. Garrison of Massachusetts, were either religious leaders or newspaper editors. A fewer number of abolitionsits, such as Senator Edwin Sumner of Massachusetts and Salmon P. Chase of Ohio, were politicians. The north had equally powerful political leaders such as democratic Senator Stephen A. Douglas who were either indifferent towards or supportive of slavery.

Today we recognize slavery as a moral issue. But in the early nineteenth century, it was seen as an economic issue first, moral issue second. A series of legislative actions, most notably the Missouri Compromise of 1820, had been enacted by Congress to put limits on the propagation of slavery, but compromise with northern and southern interests was always kept in mind. The South had an economic interest in the spread of slavery to the new territories so that new slave states could be created and the South’s political influence would remain strong. The North had an interest in limiting the spread of slavery into the new territories for both purposes of controlling Southern political power AND support of the moral issue.

Conclusion

Although the majority of the American people– including many moderate politicians like Abraham Lincoln–wanted to avoid Civil War and were content to allow slavery to die a slow, inevitable death, the most influential political leaders of the day were not. On the southern side, “fire-eaters” like Rhett and Yancey were willing to make war to guarantee the propagation of their “right” to own slaves. On the northern side, abolitionists like John Brown and Henry Ward Beecher of Connecticut were willing to make war in order to put an immediate end to the institution of slavery.

These leaders, through either words or action, were able to convince the majority that it was necessary to go to war, and in order to convince them they justified the war with arguments that only indirectly referred to the subject of slavery (i.e., state rights et. al.).

Southern politicians convinced their majority that the North was threatening their way of life and their culture. Northern politicians convinced their majority that the South, if allowed to secede, was really striking a serious blow at democratic government. In these arguments, both southern and northern politicians were speaking the truth–but not “the whole truth.” They knew that to declare the war to be a fight over slavery would cause a lot of the potential soldiers of both sides to refuse to fight.

So-was the war about slavery? Of course. If there had been no disagreement over the issue of slavery, the South would probably not have discerned a threat to its culture and the southern politicians would have been much less likely to seek “their right to secede.” But was it only about slavery? No. It was also about the constitutional argument over whether or not a state had a right to leave the Union, and–of primary concern to most southern soldiers–the continuation of antebellum southern culture. Although the majority of Southerners had little interest in slaves, slavery was a primary interest of Southern politicians–and consequently the underlying cause of the South’s desire to seek independence and state rights.

This has been my attempt at providing a brief, balance answer to a complicated subject which has been the subject of many books. For further reading, I suggest Kenneth Stampp’s Causes of the Civil War.

http://www.greatamericanhistory.net/causes.htm - 17k -

As much as Southerners like to brag about their courtesy and manners, they don’t seem to mind insulting us Northerners by continuing to wave Confederate flags around.

Dude, your vagina is showing. While I don’t have any particular affection for the stars & bars, I can sympathize with anyone who is standing up for their heritage and culture against political corrrectness run amok.

Strangely enough, that “softness” you’re complaining about is probably photoshopping smoothness. She could very well be dangerously thin and bony in real life. (not that this matters to the guys)

Her limb extension seems to be fine and she appears to be above dangerously thin.

Hannah Davis Super Sexy (and hilarious) Outtakes | Sports …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBeP4yR1lBM - 292k - Cached - Similar pages
May 12, 2015

“Strangely enough, that “softness” you’re complaining about is probably photoshopping smoothness.”

Yep, considered that too. Google Images has plenty of paparazzi shots of real life, no make-up. She’d better start eating right and getting regular exercise. Don’t get me wrong, she’s cute-n-all, and I’d buy her dinner, but I wouldn’t climb an 80-ft standpipe to the balcony for her.

LOL! who said PC speed?

It wasn’t you (unless you changed your handle), but someone did try to pull that fast one about a month ago here, to justify solar going more mainstream.

Moore’s Law is not applicable to solar.