Bits Bucket for July 9, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Too bad Bear, you came so close to actually having something to really use against me and be able to say I was wrong when I actually was:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/business/chinese-stocks-stabilize-but-fears-persist.html?_r=0
The market crossed Dan’s 30% Crowline before half the stocks on the exchange were taken out of trade and locked down at a fictitious value and the other half being bought by the CCP. It is no longer an indication of a “soaring economy” as Dan proposed. He couldn’t have been more wrong.
Read my earlier posts it was not 30% from June 12th it was 30% from June 19th and even on an intraday level it did not cross that level and it never was about intraday levels. This board will bend over backwards to claim I was wrong when I am not. However, I am not claiming I am right yet, we will see how the market behaves from here but I was not wrong.
I could not have been more clear yesterday, if the stock market dropped and I did not qualify it, I would have been wrong. It did not so deal with it.
You have been wrong all along. You just define yourself to not be, because you’re a special snowflake and the rest of the world just doesn’t appreciate your genius.
When have you ever been right about anything?
Talking to yourself again?
I have been right about you being wrong, for starters. I generally don’t take strong positions, as I recognize my fallibility. Your position on China is so glaringly, obviously, preposterously wrong that it’s an easy score to point it out.
Really than why has the World Bank actually raised its estimate of China’s growth this year to 7.1%? It is easy to claim I am wrong you cannot turn to a magazine like the Economist and prove it since they have numbers that support my view. All you can turn to Falun Gong materials, how are those aliens doing?
Estimates that support your estimate. Namedropping is meaningless in the face of the fact that the Chinese stock market is melting the f**k down right now.
Any time you’re confronted with the facts, you name drop or say “yes but the United States….”
It’s always another excuse, diversion, or backtracking weasel words from you.
Good call Russ.
“It’s always another excuse, diversion, or backtracking weasel words from you.”
That’s a pretty deep cut, coming from an attorney.
Interesting stuff:
“On Wednesday, China’s security regulator banned investors who hold more than 5 percent of a company from selling that company’s shares. The regulator also indicated that it would relax trading laws for corporate insiders looking to buy back shares at a low price. Large state-owned companies have been ordered to purchase shares, and the government has halted new initial public offerings and had brokerage firms form a market stabilization fund.”
Hey, how come we don’t try that here? Oh, wait…
That was exactly my point yesterday.
Anyway, China has upped the game: sell, and you’ll be arrested.
On another note, anyone wonder why it is that these stock market “glitches” seem to occur ONLY when there’s a sell off? Never seems to happen when there’s lots of buying.
Sell in May and be sent away.
And people wonder why capital has been fleeing China and the rich are setting shop in a safe haven that is as far away as possible from the Commissars in Beijing.
Yup, there’s that “free market” again. More like freely manipulated market.
If China’s economy is so strong, you know, goods and services and 7.26% growth and what not, then why do they have to take such measures?
Wait a minute…wasn’t the growth rate actually 7.2694375%?
you came so close to actually having something to really use against me and be able to say I was wrong when I actually was
Good grief.
I’ve been busy for about a month and the first post I come back to see today is a typical Adan self-absorbed and overly self-important “I’m never wrong…you were wrong….what I said was actually…” post?
Adan, dude….I’m sure you’re losing viewers.
LolaLOL
Excerpt:
HONG KONG — Chinese investors, who have watched as their shares have gone down 30 percent or more over the past few weeks, got a reprieve on Thursday. Stocks rose after a series of market-propping government measures appeared to have had the intended effect.
The main Shanghai index opened down as much as 3 percent before recovering to close 5.8 percent higher, while shares in Shenzhen gained 3.7 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 3.7 percent, after falling nearly 6 percent the day before. Markets in the region also turned positive, with the Nikkei 225-share index in Japan closing 0.6 percent higher and the Kospi in South Korea also rising 0.6 percent.
It’s not a market if you tell people they can’t buy and sell. It’s not an index if you tell people half can’t be bought or sold.
And what if someone broke these sudden, new “rules”? Gosh, maybe prison? Worse? What a great country.
But global market futures are up. Everything is awesome!
We have many rules that limit when “insiders” can sell and buy shares. The Chinese government is actually protecting the little guy over the rich, that would never happen here. BTW, I found the meeting between China and Russia very interesting and how they mentioned they would work together to protect their economies. Putin knows Obama waged a “Debt of Honor” type war against his economy through oil futures and I think China suspects the U.S. through short selling may have attempted to damage its economy. There will be payback.
‘The Chinese government is actually protecting the little guy over the rich’
This government just stampeded a bunch of low income, uneducated fools into a bubble to shore up their broke-a** companies.
And if they stay in the market they will make money. It try to discourage excessive margin.
try= tried. Certainly, it did not encourage them to use sources that actually were illegal under Chinese law.
After they pull this stunt, why would we let these fake Renminbi’s (人民币) be converted to US dollars to buy property here?
After they pull this stunt, why would we let these fake Renminbi’s (人民币) be converted to US dollars to buy property here?
I believe the currency exchange occurs in China and they show up here with fists full of USD.
it is all fake, why do we let them convert to real money or USD’s if they CONTROL the drops in their stock market?
It’s not a market if you tell people they can’t buy and sell. It’s not an index if you tell people half can’t be bought or sold.
It’s not an election if the candidates are the same Oligopoly water carrier, i.e HillaryJeb, Obama/Romney/McCain/Shrub.
From China Daily:
BEIJING - The consumer price index, a main gauge of China’s inflation, was up 1.4 percent from one year earlier in June and rose 1.3 percent in the first half of the year, official data showed on Thursday.
Growth in China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, edged up to 1.4 percent in June, slightly above market forecasts of 1.3 percent and 1.2 percent rise in May.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices in June remained unchanged, compared with a dip of 0.2 percent posted in May, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday.
NBS statistician Yu Qiumei attributed the pick-up to a lower comparative base from June last year and higher prices of food, including vegetables and pork.
For the first half of the year, CPI edged up 1.3 percent year on year.
Producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation, slid 4.8 percent year on year in June, the 40th straight month of declines.
The Chinese government aims to keep its consumer inflation at around 3 percent for 2015.
Related story: Positive signs fuel hope of economy bottoming out, by Xinhua
China’s economy is likely to stabilize and recover in the latter half of the year as data suggest economic fundamentals are improving.
Multiple economic indicators suggest the worst is over and positive changes are emerging due to pro-growth and reform policies, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday.
The remarks followed Premier Li Keqiang’s reassurance earlier this month that continued macroeconomic regulations and a campaign to promote innovation and entrepreneurship would ensure the country hits this year’s growth target.
The reaffirmation of confidence came ahead of the release of GDP data for the second quarter on July 15, which analysts predict will slip below 7 percent as the effects of China’s pro-growth policies have yet to spread.
UBS chief China economist Wang Tao estimated GDP growth will ease to 6.9 percent in the second quarter as the real economy remains sluggish.
But as the effects of the country’s expansionary fiscal policy and monetary easing spread, growth is expected to tick up in the third or fourth quarter.
In addition to four interest rate cuts since November, China has decided to remove its 75-percent loan-to-deposit ratio requirement to give banks more freedom to lend.
The government has also accelerated fiscal spending with the approval of a package of major infrastructure projects and an ambitious plan to speed up improvement of run-down urban areas.
The policies have already produced some changes. Earlier data showed China’s manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for three straight months while growth in the services sector quickened, suggesting continued economic improvement.
Growth of high-tech and consumer products manufacturing continued to beat overall manufacturing, signaling success in economic restructuring, while high energy-consuming industries saw slower growth, according to the data.
The property sector is also warming up. The sector’s fortune is considered crucial to the broader economy as it affects a wide range of industries, including steel and cement.
The average price per square meter in a sample of 100 cities rose 0.56 percent month on month to 10,628 yuan ($1,739) in June, according to a survey by the China Index Academy (CIA), an independent research institute.
The gain accelerated from 0.45 percent in May, which was the first rise since January.
Other recovery signs include an increase in power consumption, faster credit growth and higher prices of some raw materials.
“This shows that market demand is bottoming out, and China’s economic growth will see mild recovery in the latter half to put it on track to meet this year’s growth target of around 7 percent,” noted Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications.
While recognizing the improving trend, NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyuan cautioned that some improvements are still fragile and tentative. He said the country should remain watchful of downward pressure and make stronger efforts to achieve the annual growth target of around 7 percent for this year.
“Growth in China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, edged up to 1.4 percent in June, slightly above market forecasts of 1.3 percent and 1.2 percent rise in May.”
A reflection of the wealth effect maybe. Socks went up and made everybody rich and rich people like to spend. Maybe.
And then there is this:
“Producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation, slid 4.8 percent year on year in June, the 40th straight month of declines.”
The consumer price index is rising and the producer price index is continuing to drop.
So, Dan, just what do you make of this?
Cheaper imports of commodities but more demand at the finished good stage.
But if there is more demand at the finished goods stage then why is there cheaper prices of the imported commodities that go into producing these finished goods?
Weak EU and weak U.S. plus the manipulation of oil which was a fantastic windfall for China not so much if you are in the U.S. oil patch.
Of course China’s increased energy efficiency has allowed it to continue to grow rapidly without a corresponding increase in energy use:
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/graphics/2015-07-07-co-emissions-per-capita-and-co-intensity-by-selected.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3152938/European-leaders-warn-five-days-critical-moment-history-EU-Greece-given-one-final-deadline.html
Blah blah blah. How many deadlines and ultimatums have already come and gone?
Are you ready for the next leg up in the dollar rally?
Jeff Reeves’s Strength in Numbers
Opinion: U.S. dollar is set to rally again — here’s how to prepare
By Jeff Reeves
Published: July 9, 2015 5:35 a.m. ET
Turmoil and stimulus programs elsewhere ought to buoy the greenback
MarketWatch photo illustration/Shutterstock
It’s good to be the king.
While some pundits and politicians like to get hysterical about the death of the U.S. dollar, the reality is that the greenback has remained very much in favor in recent years for a host of reasons.
And given the turmoil elsewhere in the world, it’s time for the dollar to once again stage a rally and prove it’s the world’s dominant currency.
That’s saying something, considering the dollar hit a 12-year high against both the euro and the yen a few months ago.
Now, if you think there’s a global conspiracy to cover up a looming currency collapse, please stop reading here and proceed to the comment section below to post an all-caps screed about how this will be worse than the Great Depression and we are all cooked. If you doomers are right, I promise that I will go door to door (bunker to bunker?) after the collapse of America to offer personal apologies to you all.
But for the rest of you living in the real world, investing in real capital markets, I have a few ideas about what to expect from a rallying U.S. dollar and, most importantly, how to prepare your portfolio in such an environment.
…
A rising dollar makes everything cheaper.
Falling prices are good for my economy.
Is now the time to buy the dip in China’s stock market?
Mark Hulbert
Opinion: Contrarians say Chinese stocks could rally 29% in three months
By Mark Hulbert
Published: July 9, 2015 5:15 a.m. ET
Chinese stocks have fallen so much so fast, a rally is likely
The Shanghai Composite has fallen 32.1% in 17 trading days, which is analogous to the drops following the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes.
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Rarely are investors served up as ideal a buying opportunity as currently provided by the Chinese stock market.
That’s because the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP, +5.76%) has fallen so much in such a short period of time: 32.1% since June 12, or 17 trading sessions. That means a prospective rally becomes an attractive contrarian bet. And even though a rebound might be only a dead-cat bounce, it still could be substantial.
Maybe you’re not comfortable buying into a market that seems destined to fall even further. Whoever said it’s easy to buy when blood is running in the streets, as that famous contrarian Nathan Rothschild once said?
To help you develop your nascent contrarian instincts, consider three occasions over the past century in which the U.S. stock market declined at least 32.1% in 17 trading days, as China’s has. I believe that these three occasions represent all instances of a similar drop involving a U.S. market average, though I didn’t examine each and every benchmark. I analyzed the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1800s and the Nasdaq Composite to its start in the early 1970s.
Those three occasions are:
The 1929 stock market crash (October 1929)
The 1987 stock market crash (October 1987)
The bursting of the Internet bubble (March/April 2000; Nasdaq Composite only)
…
The 1987 stock market crash (October 1987)
And while this board thinks it is 1929, I have said I think it is 1987 when the market correction (short bear market) had virtually no impact on the economy.
Some recent evidence:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/Grade-A-office-rents-climb-in-Shanghai/shdaily.shtml
1987 sounds about right for China. Outsourced factory jobs, upsurge in cubicle farms, arms build-up, acid rain and ozone holes (or equivalent environmental disaster), supply-side economics (doomed to fail), and widespread corporate debt-up-to-my-eyeballs. All that’s missing is the hair bands. It’s Morning in China.
Wake me 12-15 years from now. China will be in deep deep deep deep… snow.
I knew you had to be a sleep to vote for Obama.
I don’t see how this relates to Obama…
In 2 out of the 3 instances cited (1929 and Nasdaq 2000), the declines continued for a much longer period of time.
The operative words here are opinion and could:
Opinion: Contrarians say Chinese stocks could rally 29% in three months.
Reality: Chinese stocks fell 31% in less than a month.
They would’ve fallen a lot further had the Chinese central planners not suspended trading in at least half of them and resorted to similar meddling in the marketplace.
Riggged. Backstopped. Bottlenecked. Fraud.
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Asia Stocks
Wsj dot Com
China Stocks Make Biggest Daily Gain in Six Years
Investors gain confidence in Beijing’s moves to stem selloff as Chinese regulators boost scrutiny of short selling
By Gregor Stuart Hunter
Updated July 9, 2015 5:44 a.m. ET
Chinese shares made their biggest daily gain in six years Thursday, restoring confidence in Beijing’s suite of attempts to rescue its struggling stock market.
The Shanghai Composite rose 5.8% to 3709.33, after losses in eight of the last 10 trading days. The smaller Shenzhen market rose 3.8%. Still, both indexes have lost around a third of their value in the past month. The small-cap ChiNext board, which has shed some 38% from its June highs, rose 3%.
Some companies that had halted trading of their shares lifted suspensions, and their stock prices immediately rose by the maximum 10%. These include Hangzhou Iron & Steel Co., Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co. and Leshi Internet Information and Technology Corp. Beijing. A total of 1,473 companies, or 51.1% of all stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, remain suspended.
Stocks in Hong Kong, which suffered their worst trading session since the global financial crisis on Wednesday, closed up 3.7%, the biggest one-day gain for the index in three months. A gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies, known as H-shares, advanced 3.1%.
“The market shows signs of stabilizing because the regulator came to rescue small-caps, especially those on the ChiNext, which eased the liquidity crisis and gave investors a much-need dose of confidence,” said Tang Yonggang, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities. On Wednesday, regulators announced that the China Securities Finance Corp., a commission unit that provides financing for margin trading, would step up purchases of small-cap stocks.
The gains also follow a report by state-run Xinhua News Agency that Chinese police had visited the China Securities Regulatory Commission to investigate “malicious short selling,” a move widely interpreted as another stab at arresting the selloff.
Regulators have increased scrutiny of short selling in the wake of China’s recent stock decline, which wiped out roughly $4 trillion in value from Chinese equities. Margin trading allows investors to borrow stocks from brokerages to short shares, or bet that the prices will fall.
China’s freely traded offshore yuan was flat at 6.208 per U.S. dollar, after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. China’s domestic bonds also stabilized following Wednesday’s selloff, with the benchmark 10-year central government bond yield falling 0.05 percentage points to 3.435%. Yields fall when prices rise.
Whether Beijing’s moves are enough to reverse a broader selloff, closing in on its fourth week, remains unclear. China’s outstanding margin loans fell to 1.5 trillion yuan ($241.7 billion) as of July 8, down from 2.27 trillion yuan at its peak on Jule 18, according to data provider Wind Info. But some say the unwinding of margin loans—one of the main triggers for the recent spate of volatility—is still far from complete.
“Until the margin buyers are gone, we don’t expect a stabilization or possibility for the market to start heading higher again,” said Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy for SEB Bank. “We are only one-third of the way through [deleveraging].”
…
Does it seem that short sellers are always the scapegoats of convenience in big stock market crashes?
Another view is that the shorts provide useful information about when valuations are getting a bit frothy. Why kill the messenger?
Rigged markets are easier to manipulate.
Tell me which country has unrigged markets? By and large this board believes in the PPT, which means our market is rigged, probably more so than China even if it is more subtle.
‘which means our market is rigged’
Are we talking about China or not? Changing the subject does nothing.
After September 11, 2001, the US markets closed for a while. Airline stocks were closed longer. What big event happened in China? Nothing. Their Ponzi fell apart. These restrictions are far worse than in the US after 9/11. The fraud has been exposed by the crash, and yet again, the media is acting like these people aren’t the corrupt fools they obviously are.
I am not changing the subject, the broad subject is rigged markets. I am just comparing China’s actions to the rest of the world which is a legitimate point.
Bloomberg Business
Fidelity Joins Goldman Saying Buy China Stocks After Market Rout
by Ye Xie
July 9, 2015 — 5:11 PM MDT
Fidelity Investments, which oversees the largest China funds outside of the mainland, is joining Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in saying that Chinese stocks are a buy following the worst selloff in two decades.
“As far as the fundamentals are concerned, we are actually quite confident,” Robert Bao, a Hong Kong-based money manager at Fidelity, which oversees more than $2 trillion globally, said in a telephone interview. “We are fully invested.”
Fidelity is echoing the bullish call from Goldman Sachs, saying the four-week rout that wiped out almost $4 trillion in market valuation has limited impact on earnings and economic growth. Government efforts to stabilize the market will keep the rout from spilling over to the broader financial system, Bao said.
The Shanghai Composite Index surged 5.8 percent Thursday, the most since 2009, after regulators banned major stockholders from selling stakes in listed companies and allowed banks to roll over loans backed by shares. The benchmark is still down 28 percent since June 12 as leveraged investors unwound bets. More than 1,400 companies were halted on mainland exchanges, locking sellers out of 50 percent of the market.
Goldman Sachs
In a sign that foreign investors expect that the worst may already be over, the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF, the largest U.S. exchange fund tracking the mainland shares, advanced a record 20 percent Thursday in New York.
Bao’s $2 billion Fidelity China Region Fund, the largest in the U.S. that invests in the country’s stocks, has returned 8.2 percent annually over the past five years, beating 90 percent of its competitors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. His colleague Jing Ning oversees $5.5 billion Luxembourg-domiciled China Focus Fund, the biggest outside China. Both buy shares listed in Hong Kong, the U.S. and the mainland.
Goldman Sachs strategist Kinger Lau predicts that the large-cap CSI 300 Index will rally 27 percent from Tuesday’s close over the next 12 months as government support measures boost investor confidence and monetary easing spurs economic growth. Leveraged positions aren’t big enough to trigger a market collapse, Lau said.
‘A Sideshow’
Before the stock market rout deepened this month, China’s economy had shown signs of picking up from the slowest growth since 1990. A government report showed Thursday that consumer prices rose faster than economists forecast in June, suggesting a stabilization in demand.
Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said the same day that China’s stock-market slump is “very much a sideshow” that “doesn’t reflect on the fundamentals” of its economy.
“We are confident that in the second half of the year we are going to see some recovery in the economy, which is not priced into the market,” said Bao. That will benefit industrial companies, which have been hit the hardest, while Hong Kong-listed small and medium-sized firms also look attractive, he said.
…
JEB! says people need to work longer hours.
http://www.myfox28columbus.com/news/features/top-stories/stories/Jeb-Bush-People-Need-to-Work-Longer-Hours-160224.shtml#.VZ5i9l9Viko
LOL! He is dubya’s brother!
It doesn’t occur to him that all those people with 3 part time jobs are already working 40+ hours per week.
That’s exactly what I thought when I read that.
House of Bush. Now there’s a family that desperately needs to be consigned to the dustbin of history.
But I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach he’s going to be the next pres. Not because “the people” voted for him, but because it is rigged that way. The “elections” are for show.
But I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach he’s going to be the next pres. Not because “the people” voted for him, but because it is rigged that way. The “elections” are for show.
The same dullards who voted for Obama, McCain, and Romney - all Wall Street water carriers - will have no issues with pulling the lever for HillaryJeb. Face it: IDIOCRACY has arrived. No vote-rigging is required with an electorate that stupid.
Don’t be a Lola.
BTW, if people thought Shrub and Obama were imperial presidents, they ain’t seen NUTHIN’ yet. JEB! will show how it’s really done.
They all have the same organ grinder.
Jeb is a straight-up plutocrat and a stooge of the Oligopoly. Any member of the 99% who votes for this a$$hat (or Hillary, his DNC clone) is a self-hating retard. Of course, we’ve already established who comprises 95% of the electorate.
I am not sure that you can say it shows that three generations of idiots in enough, but you can say that three generations of globalists is enough and it calls for sterilization. In politics a gaffe is when a politician says the truth, and our future under globalization is a standard of living no higher than Mexico. So he is telling us to get use to it.
W and Jeb are brothers from the same generation.
I am talking about Prescott, Bush I and Bush II. Prescott pushed the U.N. and was a U.S. senator.
That’s funny. It’s easy to criticize when you’re paid with OPM. I guess he doesn’t adhere to his brothers 5X8 work week.
about 10% have never worked
just get mo free sht
If you add up the “free sht” the wealthy get thru special tax write-offs, industry subsidies, and regulatory carve-outs it’s probably more than the “free sht” the bottom rung is taking.
about 10% have never worked
Are there any jobs for them? The consensus on this blog is that things will continue to get worse for the unskilled and even the semi skilled as automation and offshoring will continue to displace them.
it’s competitive in Asia
MAY . SING
everyone works
Welfare is hard to get so folks work
about 10% have never worked
About 8% of that 10% would work if SupplySide/TrickleDown and automation hadn’t taken jobs.
It’s math and reality.
Demonizing the “free-shit” crowd is cynical right-wing propaganda to hide the math and reality.
“About 8% of that 10% would work if SupplySide/TrickleDown and automation hadn’t taken jobs.”
Anything to support these numbers?
Do you have other countries in mind with better policies/practices that have better unemployment numbers?
I’d say let immigrants take American jobs because they work hard for cheap. They can make the free-shit for us. Then we Americans won’t have to work. Because frankly I really am not feeling motivated to work hard personally but I do like some free-shit. Peace bro!
When we reach full employment, then you can complain about people not working. As it is, somebody has to be out of work, and some people just aren’t, and never will be, useful to anyone.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/a-longtime-dc-resident-hopes-these-yard-signs-can-save-his-neighborhood-from-gentrifiers/2015/07/08/cf1a1776-259f-11e5-b72c-2b7d516e1e0e_story.html?hpid=z3
A D.C. resident hopes these yard signs can save his neighborhood from gentrifiers
Milfred Ellis wants the leafy D.C. neighborhood he has lived in for the past half-century to remain a place where middle-class blacks can buy a home, and he’s made his feelings abundantly clear.
He has decorated his front lawn with campaign-style signs that read: “Brightwood wants less gentrification. Not more” and “Gentrification Breeds: (1) Superiority (2) Privilege (3) Domination (4) Classicism (5) Community takeover.”
It’s blunt, but that’s the point.
The 78-year-old retired analyst for the Bureau of Labor Statistics views his Brightwood community as a waning example of a strong middle-class black neighborhood. He wants to draw attention to the plight of black residents in the District, even if it means chiding white residents who already have moved in.
“I don’t want people to come in and diminish the affordable housing stock for black Americans, because [black Americans] have nowhere else to go,” Ellis said. “There are plenty of places for white Americans to go.”
Milfred Ellis views Brightwood as a base for middle class African Americans. Ellis has put signs in his yards opposing the rapid changes. (Amanda Voisard/For the Washington Post)
Ellis said he worries the District’s influx of younger, white residents could threaten black homeownership in the neighborhood, pushing even more black residents out of a place once widely known as “Chocolate City.”
Ellis’s fear is backed up by statistics showing the changing demographics of the District. In 1990, the city was 65 percent black. In 2010, according to the census, it was about 50 percent black.
In Ellis’s Northwest neighborhood, the black population has similarly declined, from 85 percent in 1990 to about 67 percent in 2010. This decline comes as the Hispanic population has jumped throughout the city and slightly more white residents have moved into Brightwood and other predominately black neighborhoods.
Brenda Parks, who oversees much of Brightwood for the Advisory Neighborhood Commission, said the Ward 4 neighborhood north of Petworth has seen positive changes in recent years. She pointed to increased home values, more safety and new businesses boosting the economy.
“There’s no such thing as too many white people living in the neighborhood. We need to get off this color thing,” said Parks, who is black.
“I don’t see it as a loss. I see it as a new chapter.”
Data from the Urban Institute shows that in Advisory Neighborhood Commission 4B — the local governing body that oversees nearly 20,000 residents in neighborhoods including Brightwood, Manor Park and Takoma — the median home price for the area in 2000 was $189,000. The real estate Web site Redfin now lists homes on the market in Brightwood for nearly $800,000.
About 70 percent of residents in that district owned their homes in 2012 — a rate that far exceeds the city’s average — and many, like Ellis and his neighbors, have lived there for decades. As residents leave or age out of their homes, Ellis says they’re not being replaced by other black families.
Ellis and his wife, Donna, who has been involved in the D.C. Democratic State Committee, are longtime activists in the city. Milfred Ellis, a graduate of the University of the District of Columbia, was involved in the local Civil Rights movement and participated in the 1963 March on Washington. The couple has hosted fundraisers at their home for Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) and former Democratic mayors Adrian M. Fenty and Marion Barry. He printed his anti-gentrification signs on the back of old “I will boycott Walmart ” posters — posters he used to oppose Wal-Mart opening stores in the city.
Although gentrification is, by definition, wealthier residents displacing longtime poorer residents in neighborhoods, for Ellis, it’s about black residents not losing their foothold in the city. In the 1800s and 1900s, there was a sizeable black population in Georgetown, he noted, before it was transformed into the ritzy neighborhood it’s known as today.
Ellis said he hopes his signs — which have been visible for several weeks at his home on Peabody Street and haven’t attracted controversy in the neighborhood — will rally others in the community to fight for black homeowners. He hopes to launch a coalition that would fight for affordable housing in the city.
“I want to see a mobilization of African Americans come together and make changes and change the way we are thinking,” he said. “I don’t want to lead this fight, but I want to get it started. I want people to understand this. I want to educate the community.”
Not everyone seems on board with the effort.
Newly elected council member Brandon T. Todd (D-Ward 4) said he’s committed to “cultural diversity” in the ward.
Ellis’s 86-year-old next-door neighbor, who is black, raised her children in the Brightwood home, though none still live in the District.
“Yes, the neighborhood’s changed,” she said. “But I don’t mind it.”
Hey, Ellis, no problem. Just say the word and George Soros will be happy to have one of his social justice groups create the conditions necessary to ensure gentrification never occurs in your area.
+1
yep,a retired soviet on your dime
hope the hoards overun his plot of ground
I bet he doesn’t mind seeing his property value go up.
He wants whitey out of his neighborhood.
+1 …dis here ‘hood gonna be chocolate.
Repost from yesterday about King Obama and housing:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/08/obama-administration-to-unveil-major-new-rules-targeting-segregation-across-u-s
Where do they find the funding for this stuff?
And once again obama sends his lackies - in this case Julian the Marxist Castro (last name is very appropriate given context) to pronounce this crap on the folks right here in good ‘ol Ch*tcago - Land of the sheep shorn and home of the debt slave.
Seems since the Haymarket riots that everything that has come from this political cess pool has nothing but stink on it. And stink it does.
Why do you choose to live there?
Odd:
Good Question and my response……
I am not into self immolation or masochism…because….
I am working on getting outta here - and it is NOT ALL ABOUT ME and my happiness at the moment - I have other responsibilities besides my pleasures that keep me here - soon those responsibilities will be complete and then I am at liberty to move.
That is all.
The problem with plans like these is that you can force a new demographic in to a neighborhood but you can’t stop the old demographic from leaving.
The truth shall set you free
Obama Slips Up: “We’re Training ISIL” - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2NkjNvwuaU - 180k - Cached - Similar pages
1 day ago ..
NYSE, United Airlines, WSJ website hacks were a false flag event
Got burning Reichstag?
“NYSE, United Airlines, WSJ website hacks”
How do we know any of those things even occurred?
Buzzfeed Salon HuffPost JonStewart DoublePlusGood
Keep calm and carry on…
“Buzzfeed Salon HuffPost JonStewart DoublePlusGood”
How do they know?
Or payback from China.
Or maybe sh!t just happens. Ever think of that? Who’d have thought lowest-bidder systems and cutting corners would ever cause systems outtages.
Of course the US is training ISIL. That’s SOP for the entire Middle East. If you join and rift and mix and divide your warlords and tribes and radical groups enough times and change sides enough times, eventually every fighter in every group will be in one of the groups that the US was backing at some time. Which means that by now, everyone over there is US trained and probably US equipped. Not too different from mixing separate shortening and flour and water and rolling out uniform pie dough.
Why does Obama call them ISIL while just about everyone else on the planet(other than a few of his sycophants) calls them ISIS?
That’s not true.
What’s in a name? David Cameron nitpicks over Isis, Isil and Daesh
excerpt:
David Cameron has many failings but he does sometimes manage to tap in to the public mood and find the right words to express it. He is, though, getting himself into a terrible muddle over Islamic State. Having attacked the BBC and other news organisations on the Today programme for referring to Islamic State as Isis rather than Isil, he was at it again in the Commons.
In answer to a question from the SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson on whether the correct terminology was neither Isis nor Isil but Daesh, the prime minister was again explicit. “I raised this with the BBC this morning,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll move them all the way to Daesh, so I think saying Isil is probably better than Islamic State because it is neither, in my view, Islamic or a state.”
It appears to have escaped Dave’s attention that the “Is” in both Isis and Isil stands for Islamic State. You might have thought the clue was in the “Is”, but Dave is, for some reason, more obsessed by the L for Levant than the S for Syria. Conservative Crispin Blunt and new chair of the foreign affairs select committee was quick to give the prime minister a gentle reminder that these things were best left to experts like him. “Daesh”, he said extravagantly. The oracle had spoken.
In the Commons, at least, Daesh is the new Isil, though Labour’s Khalid Mahmood upped the ante still further by saying that technically Daesh were neither Isis nor Isil because they were actually a breakaway sect of Kharijites. That intervention threw everyone into a panic – the situation was moving fast – and everyone, including Dave, decided Daesh should actually be called “Dash”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/29/david-cameron-nitpicks-over-name-isis-isil-daesh-islamic-state
it is a lack of respect (good thing) to call them ISIL.
Most people are obese, should we all try to be obese? Most people dont go to college….. get it?
I don’t see how it is. The Levant covers more area than just Syria.
The word “Levant” encompasses a much larger area of land, which included Syria.
He does not want to use the word Syria because that might remind people that it was his Syrian policy that led to the rise of ISIS. BTW, it is Daesh that is the insulting word for ISIS and the use of it can actually get you killed in their territory.
The invasion of Iraq and letting go of their 250k man army with no plan created ISIL.
Ever see photos of the area before we stepped in?
1980 per capita gdp - $3812
2003 $570
got anger? got ISIL - thanks Bush!
Life expectancy in Iraq has declined since the U.S. invasion. In 1987 it was an average of 65 years. By 2006 it was down to 58.2 years.
Bush gets $100K speaking fee to appear at event for soldiers wounded during his wars.
http://thescoopblog.dallasnews.com/2015/07/george-w-bush-charged-100000-to-speak-at-2012-charity-fundraiser-for-wounded-veterans.html/
I hate greedy globalists whether it is W or Obama.
I hate greedy globalists
We know.
You “hate” greedy globalists yet you tout the monster that the greedy globalists created. (China)
You tout China’s “SupplySide miracle” while ignoring that it was USA’s SupplySide/TrickleDown polices that made China “SupplySide miracle”.
Got it.
Is China “supply side?” It’s really just a new form of neo-communism where so-called private corporations are false fronts for state ownership and injections of state capital. Shady bookkeeping is rampant, which is why no one takes Chinese stocks at face value. Look at the so-called homeowners and real estate investors in China — they never take title to the properties. They remain in the hands of the People.
This has been A-dan’s MO for a while:
1. China has supply-side economics.
2. China is doing really really well.
3. The US is not doing supply-side economics.
4. The US is not doing well.
———–
Therefore, the US need to do supply-side economics if they want to do as well as China. More tax cuts, fewer regulations, etc.
Sound logic yes, but sounds logic does not make the assumptions true.
You know someone once said that correlation does not equal causation.
You think maybe they were on to something?
Donk,
He’s right on #4 but has little to do with “supply side economics”.
Look at the so-called homeowners and real estate investors in China — they never take title to the properties. They remain in the hands of the People.
Which is why they have been so eager to purchase property in Oz, Canada, USA and Europe.
We know that housing demand in the US is at 20 year lows(30 years lows in CA) but has anyone identified how far demand has fallen globally?
he donates about 90% of his time to vets
Even if the number is true, it still would not justify the $100,000 fee on this occasion.
He, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, and their entire neo-con coterie should spend the rest of their lives changing bedpans at veterans’ hospitals in penance for launching a war in pursuit of their grand neo-con pipe dream of “democratizing” the Middle East as part of the Likud Party’s “clean break” strategy.
Looks like the Republican gerbil, oops, sorry, I mean Republican chairman has attempted to give Trump marching orders regarding his campaign:
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/07/09/republican-chairman-calls-trump-about-campaign/
Wonder if Trump will fall in line?
34 million Acts Of Love™ coming soon to your neighborhood, LOLZ
Here is how Trump and Romney differ on this issue and why Trump is being viciously attacked and Romney was not. Romney took a strong stand against illegal immigration but he was pro legal immigration. The PTB can live with much easier legal immigration to replace illegal immigration. It is just like Obamacare had provisions prohibiting illegals from receiving Obamacare even if the enforcement provisions were almost nonexistent. Obama knew he was going to go for legalization and he thought it did not make a difference. Trump is questioning whether the immigrants we are letting into this country from Mexico both legally and illegally are really the type of people we want in this country and suggesting that he will take effective action to stop them. That cannot occur if you want to have a continuing labor surplus which drives down wages in this country.
” a continuing labor surplus which drives down wages in this country”
Which you would favor, correct?
More on Republican party concerns over Trump.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0
What a bunch of whining, jealous, ball-less wonders.
He’s saying what they want to.
Numerous countries around the world have much tougher immigration laws than we have.
Yet, somehow we’ve convinced ourselves that we are evil if we don’t let everyone in.
“…why Trump is being viciously attacked and Romney was not.”
Could it be due to Trump’s blatant media statements to rally the Base, which backfired by making him seem like an anti-Mexican biggot? By contrast, Romney, whose ancestors lived in Mexico, made no similar pronouncements that I can remember.
What he stated is the truth. The Mexican invasion is filled with criminals and crime statistics support that view. Of course to the PC police telling the truth makes one a bigot.
Are there statistics that show that Mexican immigrants commit more crimes than other immigrants, or people born in the USA for that matter?
http://www.fairus.org/publications/illegal-aliens-and-crime-incidence-2007?A=SearchResult&SearchID=16228218&ObjectID=5123364&ObjectType=35
And “robbing” the taxpayers:
http://www.fairus.org/issue/white-house-report-confirms-president-obamas-executive-actions-will-harm-american-workers-taxpayers
Even Mexicans can be bigots.
http://www.vdare.com/articles/memo-from-middle-america-mexican-meddlers-even-madder-about-trump-but-not-about-white-mexican-official-making-racist-fun-of-indians
The Donald is right when he says that Mexico is forcing their worst into the US. The article sort of illustrates how elite Mexicans view their Indios.
“I’m not going to lie and I’m going to tell you how this cabrón [literally “billygoat”,approximately “motherf**ker”, “asshole”, “Bastard” “cuckold”] spoke: “I chief great nation Chichimeca, I come Guanajuato [the city], I say here the diputados for us and I no to permit your elections.” [This is referring to a request for an electoral district].
…This guey [approximately “stupid”, “asshole”“cuckold” “dude”], I don’t know if he talks like that or watched a lot of Lone Ranger, with this Toro [the word they replaced Tonto with in Spanish] cabrón, the only thing lacking is for him to say “I great Chief Sitting Bull, leader great nation Chichimeca.”
U.S. Republican Trump says ‘I’ll win the Latino vote’
Reuters 17 hrs ago
WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - Republican Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would win the Latino vote if he gets his party’s nomination for president and claimed a “great relationship with the Mexican people,” despite recent comments about immigrants that have cost him business.
“I’ll win the Latino vote. I will win it,” Trump said in an excerpt of an interview with NBC News released on Wednesday. He said he would be better able to create jobs as president than fellow Republican Jeb Bush or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“I will create jobs, and the Latinos will have jobs that they don’t have right now, and I will win that vote,” Trump said.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-republican-trump-says-ill-win-the-latino-vote/ar-AAcIOzP?ocid=ansnewsreu11
He probably would win the Latino vote. But not the Hispanic vote.
I read an article about affirmative action at the University of Texas. One student quoted was of Brazilian ancestry. Thus he claimed that he was Latino, but not Hispanic. By that definition probably 98% of all Latinos are Hispanic.
No, I’ll give you the correct definition:
George Lopez = Hispanic
Trini Lopez = Latino
Real journalists will be provided with the scripted narrative for this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/08/jade-helm-15-heavily-scrutinized-military-exercise-to-open-without-media-access/
Got WTC Building 7?
Windows 10 rolls out then; the exercise should be bumped to August.
I thought about not posting this youtube link in the spirit of political correctness but sometimes you just gotta laugh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kb6ErLPt4t8 - 185k -
Obama Orders Cities And Towns To Racially Integrate
The Obama administration unveiled new rules Wednesday to rid the country of racially segregated neighborhoods
by Rachel Stoltzfoos | Daily Caller | July 9, 2015
The Obama administration unveiled new rules Wednesday to rid the country of racially segregated neighborhoods by directing cities and towns to set goals for reducing segregation, and then regularly report their progress to the feds.
Communities nationwide will be given a series of questions designed to help them figure out whether racial bias is causing segregated neighborhoods, racial or ethnically concentrated areas of poverty, unequal access to opportunity or disproportionate housing needs in their jurisdiction. They will be required to set goals related to that data and publicly report on their progress every three to five years.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development rule is intended to prod communities to meet fair housing standards established in the Fair Housing Act of 1986, by making previously unavailable or unreliable data accessible to the public, which could then use the data as an impetus for change.
The Fair Housing Act requires the government to not only eliminate racial discrimination in housing, but also to encourage racially integrated neighborhoods.
Real journalists are sh*tting their pants trying to script the narrative on this:
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2015/07/08/police-will-seek-hate-crime-charges-fountain-square-attack/29867779/
The comments, as usual, are far more revealing than the article.
It must be all of the collectivism in those comments that appeals to you.
Just tellin’ it like it is….
Srebrenica happened twenty years ago this week, a friend of mine lost his father in the death camps:
http://www.srebrenica.org.uk/
Are you sure it wasn’t a false flag operation? Or it could all be made up.
Only 8,000 were killed at Srebrenica
It takes a real “progressive” like Stalin to kill 20,000,000
How do you know 8,000 were killed at Srebrenica?
Stumped!
I thought StALIN was a Bush Republican? He had close relations with the Bin Laden family.
Yes, with your command of history and you might even think that.
White People | Official Trailer | MTV - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRJnkBqwzOQ - 392k - Cached - Similar pages
1 day ago …
Vargas. A professional illegal.
RealJournalists DoublePlusGood
The advantages of race and class are not easily shed, even in a falafel shop
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/07/09/i-tried-to-escape-my-privilege-with-low-wage-work-instead-i-came-face-to-face-with-it/
Jeb and Hillary. It’s what old/outdated people vote for.
Hasn’t Hillary’s “best by” date expired? Jeb’s date expired due to the performance of his brother and father and grandfather.
….Of course to the PC police telling the truth makes one a bigot……Hasn’t Hillary’s “best by” date expired?
I think your idea of your truth Adan is that you don’t like Blacks, Browns, Mexicans and women past menopause, but you are not a bigot.
What (Trump) stated is the truth. The Mexican invasion is filled with criminals and crime statistics support that view.
Wrong. I’m anti-illegal immigration but I can do the math. What Trump said was a lie because he implied most were criminals which they are not. They are taking American jobs because they work hard for cheap, not because most are criminals. It’s math.
Truth! It’s cynical right-wing propaganda to hide the math and reality. SupplySide/TrickleDown and automation already took all the American jobs and therefore it isn’t possible that Illegal immigrants are taking those jobs. Those jobs were already gone! He is just demonizing immigrants.
“I’m anti-illegal immigration”
You’re a cultural imperialist just like every other so called “progressive”.
Can’t get the votes for Marxism with current demographics…let’s bring in some new meat.
“I’m anti-illegal immigration”
heh, kinda like a trick statement. “I”m anti-illegal immigration, so let’s legalize ‘em.”
kinda like a trick statement. “I”m anti-illegal immigration, so let’s legalize ‘em.”
Are you projecting?
You’re a cultural imperialist…Can’t get the votes for Marxism
Did you hear that stuff on AM radio?
switched from chrome to mozilla
most pleasant
And now the Joshua Tree extension.
The latest Firefox has a nice new feature: Reader View. Click it and it strips away all banner ads, autorun flash movies, clutter and leaves you with just the article text to read. It’s amazing how much RAM is freed up when you enable Reader View and all of the extraneous garbage is removed.
Brown is the new red:
http://calwatchdog.com/2015/07/08/ca-fiscal-health-ranks-44th-in-country/
wpa et. al love cali
raising taxes is cool dude
see howmoneywalks for results
Yeah, calwatchdog is a biased right-wing site … they had to dig deep to find some obscure index that ranks California low. They felt pressure to publish something to counter this good news:
July 2: “Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services removed from CreditWatch and raised its rating on California’s general obligation (GO) debt to ‘AA-’ from ‘A+’. Standard & Poor’s has also raised its rating on the state’s general fund annual appropriation-secured debt to ‘A+’ from ‘A’. The outlook on both ratings is stable.
“The rating action follows enactment of California’s 2015-2016 budget, which, in our view, marks another step forward in the state’s journey toward improved fiscal sustainability,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Gabriel Petek. “
Show that one figure in the report is incorrect, the attacking the source ploy gets very old.
I think the ratings upgrade from S&P speaks volumes. California is doing much better. We just gotta stop old movie stars from stealing water for their avocado orchards.
the attacking the source ploy gets very old.
I know right? Like when you attacked the Commonwealth Fund source on this issue Adan? (One of America’s most respected HealthCare research institutes)
According to a new poll taken by the Commonwealth Fund, people enrolled in ObamaCare are satisfied. And yes, that includes Republicans:
“Overall, 73 percent of people who bought health plans and 87 percent of those who signed up for Medicaid said they were somewhat or very satisfied with their new health insurance. Seventy-four percent of newly insured Republicans liked their plans. Even 77 percent of people who had insurance before — including members of the much-publicized group whose plans got canceled last year — were happy with their new coverage.” [Commonwealth Fund]
howmoneywalks is irs data- not too rw lately
Booty shut it down due to embarrassing stats
howmoneywalks shows the movement of $ between state
ca.il ,nj,losing lots of $
The people in Palo Alto ( and every other nice town) laugh at those stats.
What state has the most violent crime? #2 in NM. Now that should be a concern if you ever leave your house. How about DUI’s in ABQ?
‘And may the odds be ever in your favor.’
Jade Helm 15, heavily scrutinized military exercise, to open without media access
By Dan Lamothe July 8 at 2:00 PM
Jade Helm 15, the controversial Special Operations exercise that spawned a wave of conspiracy theories about a government takeover, will open next week without any media allowed to observe it, a military spokesman said.
Embedded reporters won’t be permitted at any point during the exercise, in which military officials say that secretive Special Operations troops will maneuver through private and publicly owned land in several southern states. Lt. Col. Mark Lastoria, a spokesman for Army Special Operations Command, said his organization is considering allowing a small number of journalists to view selected portions of the exercise later this summer, but nothing is finalized.
The Washington Post has several times requested access to observe the exercise, making the case to the military that first-hand media coverage would help explain the mission. Lastoria said it is not possible to allow a journalist to travel with Special Operations forces in the field, citing the isolated nature of the mission and the need to protect the identity of the forces involved.
Lastoria said Jade Helm is no longer as large as it was described on briefing slides published on the Internet in March. This map drew widespread attention at the time:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…/ -
WashingtonPost most bestest DoublePlusGood real journalists
MikeyMite say ZeroHedge not real journalists
The most prolific writer on ZeroHedge is a fictional character. If the army allowed embedded reporters to cover this thing, I doubt that ZeroHedge would send anybody.
“I doubt that ZeroHedge would send anybody.”
Probably not, they don’t have any bombastic blow-dried bloviators
available.
All kidding aside, they do have correspondents in various parts of the world, to give on the ground perspectives.
Oh, sheesh, I just left myself wide open here. I was referring to Brian Williams, however, it just occurred to me that one of the lefteez could nail me, so I’ll do it first:
“Oh, ya mean Donald Trump wasn’t available?”
They have bloviating pretty much every day. Much of it is in the form of what’s going on in Greece will come to America. Of course, there’s never a date associated with that prediction, so they can never be shown to be wrong.
I like their “panic buying” meme, complete with sarcastic thumbnails. My favorite one is “If you see something, buy something!”
I got burned once posting a Zero Hedge article on massive international auto inventory. It was disproved by a reliable source. So, yah, they do jump the shark sometimes, but they also have some good solid stuff and some of it before it’s news.
Federal Judge Orders Cancellation of Washington Redskins’ Trademarks
by CNS News | Barbara Hollingsworth | July 9, 2015
A federal judge in Virginia has ordered the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) to cancel six of the Washington Redskins’ registered trademarks because their depiction of an Indian brave is considered offensive to Native Americans.
“The evidence before the Court supports the legal conclusion that between 1967 [when the first Redskins’ trademark was registered] and 1990, the Redskins Marks consisted of matter that ‘may disparage’ a substantial composite of Native Americans,” U.S. District Judge Gerald Lee wrote in his July 8 ruling in Pro-Football Inc. v. Blackhorse.
In his 70-page decision, Lee rejected the Redskins’ argument that the trademark cancellation was an infringement of the teams’ First and Fifth Amendment rights.
“The federal trademark registration program is government speech and is therefore exempt from First Amendment scrutiny,” he ruled, adding that “a trademark registration is not considered property under the Fifth Amendment.”
The order does not prevent the pro football team from continuing to use the logo. However, the loss of federal trademark protection could jeopardize some of its commercial and licensing activities.
Told ya. Kritarchy.
That’s great news, they’re getting rid of a regulation, increasing freedom in the economy.
can the black panthers - muslims etc keep their logos/flags etc?
Do the Black Panthers have registered trademarks?
Bond Report
Treasurys sell off as stocks recover from rout
By Ellie Ismailidou
Published: July 9, 2015 9:52 a.m. ET
AFP/Getty Images
Chinese stocks recorded their strongest gains in six years on Thursday, sending Treasury yields higher, and prices lower, as investor optimism increases.
Treasury prices declined Thursday, driving yields higher, as global equity markets rebounded from Wednesday’s rout.
After Wednesday’s three-and-a-half-hour NYSE trading halt, a major plunge in Chinese shares and continued jitters over the unresolved Greek debt crisis, Thursday offered some optimism with European equities moving higher and China’s stock market showing some signs of recovery.
…
Proposal to trade Greece for PR, I have to think about that one:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-33459366
More from Mr Schaeuble, who reportedly joked in his press conference that he would make the US an offer to swap Greece for Puerto Rico, which has also defaulted on its debts.
Puerto Rico’s debt is roughly €64 billion, compared with Greece’s €345 billion. So Mr Schaeuble is out on a limb there.
Region VIII news
This is an extraordinary athletic achievement without parallel
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/mountains/andrew-hamilton-breaks-speed-record-for-climbing-colorados-14ers-the-14000-foot-high-peaks
Wow. That is incredible and the guy is not that young. The online satellite tracking is a great idea — I was wondering how his claims are substantiated and verified.
Less pot smoking and that could be you.
Meet me at the Maroon Bells trailhead in Aspen this Saturday morning at 5:30 a.m. if you dare, you roid-rage, over-the-hill, oaf
Last year’s Pikes Peak Ascent half-marathon I was averaging 1,500+ vertical feet of gain per hour, let’s see you beat that Dannyboy
56 years old and burning 583 calories in 35 minutes on the treadmill. No roids just good genetics and salmon, for the weight lifting. BTW, the calorie count requires a 15% grade on the treadmill. You sure you want an old man to show you up?
thanks for the update, do you have regular bm’s?
this is like watching the Special Olympics.
this is like watching the Special Olympics.
Did you enjoy it more when you were a participant?
Don’t ask me to be a hugger for this event!
Great article on Greece, reality and history. (And business)
“Germany, in fact, understands moral hazard backward. The standard definition refers to lenders; covering their losses will encourage them to make bad loans again. And that is, let us not forget, exactly what Europe’s creditors have done. Their financial assistance to Greece was deployed to pay back German, French and other foreign banks and investors that held Greek debt. It did Greece little if any good.”
Germans Forget Postwar History Lesson on Debt Relief in Greece Crisis NYT JULY 7, 2015
…The main creditor demanding that Greeks be made to pay for past profligacy benefited not so long ago from more lenient terms than it is now prepared to offer.
But beyond serving as a reminder of German hypocrisy, the image offers a more important lesson: These sorts of things have been dealt with successfully before.
…The recurring, historical pattern? Major debt overhangs are only solved after deep write-downs of the debt’s face value. The longer it takes for the debt to be cut, the bigger the necessary write-down will turn out to be.
Nobody should understand this better than the Germans. It’s not just that they benefited from the deal in 1953, which underpinned Germany’s postwar economic miracle. Twenty years earlier, Germany defaulted on its debts from World War I, after undergoing a bout of hyperinflation and economic depression that helped usher Hitler to power.
It is a general lesson about the nature of debt. Yet from the World War I defaults of more than a dozen countries in the 1930s to the Brady write-downs of the early 1990s, which ended a decade of high debt and no growth in Latin America and other developing countries, it is a lesson that has to be relearned again and again.
…Creditors, of course, do not generally like debtors to write down their debt. But that’s not how Germany and its allies justify their approach. They rely instead on a “moral hazard” argument: If Greece were offered an easy way to get out of debt, what would prevent it from living the high life on other people’s money again? What kind of lesson would this send to, say, Portugal?
But the Greek economy has shrunk by a quarter. Its pensioners have been impoverished. Its banks are closed. That counts as suffering consequences. No sane government would emulate the Greek path.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?mabReward=A3&moduleDetail=recommendations-1&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion®ion=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&configSection=article&isLoggedIn=false&src=recg&pgtype=article
Are the sheeple finally waking up? Trump just passed Jeb Bush in the polls, with Rand Paul moving up to 11% support, hot on Jeb’s heels. Question for HillaryJeb supporters: why not just vote for Lloyd Blankfein directly?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/trumpd
MikeyMite SadPandaBooHoo ZeroHedge not real journalists
It’s another little thing from a fictional character. Fictional people, by definition, are not real.
Sigh. Mikey, it’s a the name of a fictional character taken by a real person (or persons, since the skinny is that Tyler Durden is used by a number of contributors). Like Samuel Clemens taking the name Mark Twain as a nom de plume.
I’m kidding when I mention the fictional character thing. It is a strange practice, though, having a group of people who share a pen name.
On a regular basis, they publish doom and gloom predictions with no dates attached. There’s also often a lack of logic in their philosophy. These are the more serious problems with that web site.
The established pigs going down in the polls is gloom and doom?
I suppose falling prices is gloom and doom too….
Smarten up.
The doom and gloom predictions are the statements along the lines that claim that America will become like Greece. There are never dates attached to these predictions, which makes planning for the disaster difficult.
We are just like Greece. It’s not a forecast. Reality my friend.
I just withdrew $200 from an ATM yesterday.
It’s another little thing from a fictional character. Fictional people, by definition, are not real.
And dudes that give themselves names like MightyMike are, by definition, seriously under-endowed. Just tellin’ it like it is….
You made a similar statement a few weeks ago. I explained that I was given the nickname by a co-worker nearly 20 years ago. It’s not some big ego thing.
Right. It’s a small endowment thing.
Awesome.
I think the elite pile-on by NBC, Univision, ESPN, Macy’s, PGA and some weenie chef has helped him as far as standing with potential voters who, like me, see this as similar to what elites have been doing to the middle class voters for years. Denigrating them, shaming them, degrading them, kicking them to the curb and yanking their gigs.
JEB should move south of the border and run for Prez of Mexico, where his heart is.
In Mexico, to be prez you need not only be native born, but BOTH of your parents need to be native born Mexicans. You have to be native born to run for any office. If you’re naturalized you can’t run for any office.
Oh, an all elected posts are single term. There is no re-election in Mexico.
Say, Colorado, do you know if it’s true that when Mexico was forming as a new territory under the Spanish, full rights were given to the criollos and indios, but the mestizos were thrown under the bus? I read that somewhere, can’t remember, I think it was historical fiction, that’s why I’m looking for fact-checking.
Actually, from what I learned the pecking order was:
Iberics
Criollos
Mestizos
Mulattoes
Indians
Blacks and “zambos” (Indin/black mix)
+1. More and more people are fed up with the elites controlling the narrative, and respond enthusiastically to a guy who speaks bluntly and tells the truth they can see with their own eyes. If the elites get their panties in a twist about it, that’s bonus points.
I enjoy watching the pigs get spun up. They get all sanctimonious and self righteous. Pigs.
Question for HillaryJeb supporters: why not just vote for Lloyd Blankfein directly?
Really they should buy their effing wholesale instead of retail.
Rand Paul 2016!! “He is not an attorney!”
Flow of illegals at 20 yr low. Hmmmm….
http://www.newsmax.com/US/immigration-illegals-border-security/2015/05/28/id/647183/
Yes, the silver lining to Obama creating the worse economy since Carter as measured by the labor participation rate and this shows it is a lack of good jobs and not age related, the jobs available are so bad not even an illegal wants them.
worse economy since Carter as measured by the labor participation rate
That’s a really bad way to measure how well the economy is doing.
No, it is the hardest number to manipulate. And it explains why people are so upset about the economy when the headline unemployment number isn’t that high.
It’s not that hard to manipulate. (That’s one of your favorites words, isn’t it?) It includes everyone who’s employed or looking for work. The definition of what constitutes looking for work could be easily mucked around with. The fact that it includes those two groups combined also means that the rate wouldn’t change if a million employed people lost their jobs tomorrow, along as they were looking for new ones. And, of course, the version of the statistic most frequently cited includes all Americans over the age of 18, so it decreases every time a person in his 60s retires.
Did we quit when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?
Hell No!
Germans?
Forget it he’s on a roll.
ABDan is on a roll
so, you want the government to create jobs now? Corp profits tripled under O, gov cant force them to hire you.
Rand Paul 2016! We want less gov, not more.
Yes.
1. Balanced budget Jimmy Carter
2. No stupid wars Jimmy Carter
3. No $3 trillion dollar stupid wars Jimmy Carter
4. No made up anti-homo, or religious phobia campaigns Jimmy Carter
I heard Jimmy on PBS this morning. At 90, he is still sharp and intelligent. Compare that to a 50 year-old Shrub or 45 year-old Ted Cruz. Amazing.
No stupid wars Jimmy Carter
Only a stupid foreign policy that led to the Imams taking over Iran and being the reason we are trying to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. High inflation and high unemployment Jimmy, the man needed a paddle to stand up to a rabbit, no kidding look it up. When his administration was going down the tubes he ordered the firing of all incompetents except he explicitly excluded minorities and women.
He was our worst president until GW Bush came along. Then Obama eclipsed even him. And HillaryJeb will likely take “epic incompetence” to a whole new level.
Jebbary will set new lows in the country. What Pieces O’ Shhit they are. Add John Kerry to that list.
Don’t forget Hillary. Evil, corrupt to the core, a habitual liar, and a crony capitalist through and through - but she could throw kittens into a wood chipper on live TV, and the same amoral imbeciles that voted for hope ‘n change would vote for her regardless.
He was our worst president until GW Bush came along. Then Obama eclipsed even him.
IMO Obama will be judged by history as a well above average president.
agreed. Reagan tripled the deficit and grew the gov and gave amnesty to 3 mill illegals, raised taxes…. yet the GOP likes that sort of thing, and call themselves conservatives??
sheeple can be brainwashed so easily.
They estimate the Bush wars at $60 trillion with interest buy 2053.
So you agree with his description of Obama?
http://dailycaller.com/2013/11/02/epic-fail-now-jimmy-carter-is-calling-obama-an-incompetent-loser/
1. Balanced budget Jimmy Carter
2. No stupid wars Jimmy Carter
3. No $3 trillion dollar stupid wars Jimmy Carter
4. No made up anti-homo, or religious phobia campaigns Jimmy Carter
I heard Jimmy on PBS this morning. At 90, he is still sharp and intelligent. Compare that to a 50 year-old Shrub or 45 year-old Ted Cruz. Amazing.
1980 US Olympic gold medal hockey team reunites in Lake Placid
By SANDY CALIGIORE
Associated Press
February 23, 2015 —
When the U.S. won the gold, it was a time of world strife. The Soviet army had just invaded Afghanistan as the Cold War simmered, a group of Americans was being held hostage in Iran, the U.S. economy was hurting, and President Jimmy Carter already had announced a U.S. boycott of the Summer Olympics in Moscow.
The sociopolitical impact of that era has since faded. The memory of that February day 35 years ago in Lake Placid has not.
http://www.startribune.com/correction-miracle-at-35-story/293157791/ - 431k -
creating the worse economy since Carter as measured by the labor participation rate and this shows it is a lack of good jobs
The guy who touts the “ChineseSupplySide Miracle” is complaining about the lack of USA jobs that TricleDown Tripe sent to China.
Classic.
http://energyskeptic.com/2013/oil-can-never-be-replaced-with-alternative-energy-resources/
in 1981, Bill Gates supposedly uttered this statement, in defense of the just-introduced IBM PC’s 640KB usable RAM limit: “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
Charles H. Duell was the Commissioner of US patent office in 1899. Mr. Deull’s most famous attributed utterance is that “everything that can be invented has been invented.”
And the flying cars are coming within a decade, I have heard it since the 1960s, and if you look at movies such as Back to the Future in the 1980s they existed by now. However, the reality is yes we will someday have electric cars that are equal to gasoline vehicles but you will be swearing at Obama because he bankrupted social security and you are working at 75 when they become common. BTW, it is much more likely they will be fuel cell vehicles than the dead end lithium battery technology.
you dont even know your team’s favorite players:
Instead of being a proud day for America, April 20, 1983, has become a day of shame. The Social Security Amendments of 1983 laid the foundation for 30-years of federal embezzlement of Social Security money in order to use the money to pay for wars, tax cuts and other government programs. The payroll tax hike of 1983 generated a total of $2.7 trillion in surplus Social Security revenue. This surplus revenue was supposed to be saved and invested in marketable U.S. Treasury bonds that would be held in the trust fund until the baby boomers began to retire in about 2010. But not one dime of that money went to Social Security. - See more at: http://www.fedsmith.com/2013/10/11/ronald-reagan-and-the-great-social-security-heist/#sthash.6i7DiPbL.dpuf
I’ve gone 2 years without using gas or oil. 33,000 miles.
Seems to me oil could be replaced pretty quickly. I think Buffett just paid something like 3 cents a KWH for solar power.
This Chinese crash is wonderful.
It is going to open up some wonderful buying
opportunities in the near future.
Got gold?
Got rural real estate off the grid?
Got silver?
Got antiques?
Got oil?
Got a paid for house?
Got a guaranteed pension plan?
Got true value stocks once China stabilizes about 30 per cent lower than now.
And it could still all tumble down tomorrow in a great big crash.
Nobody’s safe, but it’s fun trying.
The Greek government capitulated on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Sunday
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/09/greece-debt-crisis-athens-accepts-harsh-austerity-as-bailout-deal-nears
All that drama for nothing.
This drama hasn’t even began yet. The line hasn’t even started forming at the barber shop yet.
As Neil used to say, got popcorn?
I remember Neil! And what happened to the gal mauled by the bear?
Allena stills pops in occasionally. She has her own site Allenahansen dot com.
Her story about losing her Mom and GSD in the same weekend, hit close to home.
As I said in December or January, the Greeks have two bad choices (1) except austerity and stay in the Euro zone or (2) leave and use their own currency but suffer a sever depreciation. The leftist lied to them and convinced them they had a third option. In 2014 Greece grew by just under 1% and it was suppose to about double in 2015, not great but the beginning of a recovery. Due to the new leftist government instead of the conservatives, they will be lucky not to contract.
Accept=except
They didn’t lie, the debt is not sustainable. IMF agrees. Germany agrees.
Greece will pay off the debt over a longer time and at a lower interest. Germany will pump the press with stories about how Greece didn’t get to write off their debt with the hope that other countries won’t demand the same thing.
White people are so privileged even their homeless can afford piano lessons.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCguq3hTC2M - 358k - Cached - Similar pages
Jun 30, 2015 …
Ghost to the post
Ken Stabler died today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfSB4K5e5Qw - 187k -
http://www.infowars.com/jesse-ventura-speaks-out-on-two-party-system-libertarians-ron-paul/
Potential Minnesota Independence Party candidate for U.S. Senate, Jesse Ventura, was interviewed by Al Jazeera on April 9.
In the interview, he says of the two major parties: “They’ve turned the whole business of elections into panhandling and bribery,” and “These two parties now have America $9 trillion in debt.” Ventura says people who work their entire lives to leave something for their children are actually just leaving an inheritance that will be seized by government to service the national debt.
One remedy Ventura sees for crushing the “two-party dictatorship” is the inclusion of None of the Above as an electoral option at all levels. Ventura says he believes NOTA would win many races across the country. He also said a “wasted vote” is when you don’t vote your heart or vote your conscience. Ventura mentioned a Larry King poll that said 88% of respondents, of which there were more than 15,000, said Jesse Ventura should be running for president.
In describing himself as a “small-l libertarian,” Ventura says this of Libertarian Party members: “I found out that the capital-L Libertarians are anarchists, they don’t believe there’s any role for government at all. And I certainly believe there’s a role for government, I just believe it should be far more limited than what it is. I’m fiscally conservative, but I’m socially liberal.”
School Issues Terrifying Threat to Parents Who Pick Up Kids Late
Officials at an Oregon elementary school sent a letter home threatening to call authorities if parents pick their kids up late
by Rachel Bertsche | Yahoo | July 9, 2015
A letter that went out to families at an Oregon elementary school had some parents up in arms in this week — and fearing for what would happen should they arrive a few minutes late to student pick-up.
The letter, which was sent from office staff at Swegle Elementary School in Salem, was intended to be a reminder about school procedures for the upcoming academic year. But for some parents, one line in particular jumped out: “Children must be picked up on time. If they are not picked up on time, we will call DHS [Department of Human Services] and you will then have to pick them up at court the next day.”
Another line, this one about the timing of morning drop-off, included similar language: “Please do not drop your children off before [7:40 am]. There will not be any supervision. If children are dropped before 7:40 the staff will call the authorities.”
Chris Dorner manhunt, LOLZ
Got Jade Helm 15?
Is China’s stock market bailout going to “work”?
Opinion: China’s stock-market crash is just beginning
Published: July 9, 2015 9:35 p.m. ET
…
The underlying problem is that the investing culture is immature
As I’ve written many times, China, Brazil, Russia and other emerging markets are suffering through secular bear markets that will last years. Since Chinese stocks represent more than 20% of some emerging-markets ETFs, the pain will likely continue well into this decade.
Secular bear markets feature sudden, violent rallies and mini–bull markets that fool people into thinking they’re the genuine article. In real bull markets, indexes repeatedly top their previous highs; in bear markets, they never do.
So it was an ominous sign when Shanghai hit 5,000 and then reversed sharply. The previous all-time high was over 6,000 in October 2007. We thus have an eight-year down trend.
Back in 2007, China was booming as the government rolled out massive new infrastructure ahead of the 2008 Olympic Games, which by any measure were a huge success.
But after the financial crisis, the Great Recession and a domestic real-estate bust, China is struggling to hit the government’s 7% economic-growth target. When the property market crashed, desperate Chinese authorities encouraged novice investors to channel their speculative energies into the stock market.
Now that’s reversing quickly, as massive margin calls swamp the government’s efforts to stop the rout.
The underlying problem is that while the Chinese economy has made great strides and become a global powerhouse, China’s investing culture remains backward and immature.
As John Mauldin wrote in his “Thoughts From the Frontline” e-letter this week: “Chinese individual investors are not primarily ‘value’ investors. Sky-high valuations don’t seem to faze them. They are primarily momentum investors who buy whatever is moving and sell whatever is falling.
“According to my friends who go to casinos and watch the Chinese gamble, they tend to jump on a ‘trend’ such as red coming up on the roulette table repeatedly — never mind that the odds are only ever 50-50. Red is seen as hot and therefore the way to bet. That carries over into trading styles. …”
When highly unsophisticated investors run into trouble, they panic quickly and try to get out at any price. The same inexperienced bettors who drove Shanghai up to 5,000 will take it way down, maybe to the last bear-market low above 1,700 — or maybe even lower, to 1,500, before it finds a long-term bottom.
When Shanghai was peaking at 5,000 in June, I gave you five words of advice: Get. The. Hell. Out. Now.
To which I’ll add five more: And. Stay. The. Hell. Out.
Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist and founder and editor of GoldenEgg Investing, which offers free market commentary and simple, low-cost, low-risk retirement investing plans. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold.
The bailout might work, because it’s different in China in a way that makes it just so…
International Business
Why China’s Stock Market Bailout Just Might Work
JULY 9, 2015
Common Sense
By JAMES B. STEWART
Outside of China, the consensus among economists is overwhelming: The country’s efforts to prop up its plunging stock markets are doomed, the financial equivalent of King Canute trying to halt the incoming tide. But this being China, the conventional wisdom may turn out to be wrong.
Faced with an unnerving sell-off in its major markets that at one point had wiped out nearly $3 trillion in value, China has announced a series of measures to stabilize stock prices, including the establishment of a 120 billion renminbi ($19.4 billion) fund for the country’s largest brokerage firms to buy stocks.
So far, it’s hard to tell whether the government’s intervention is having much impact. After modest gains on Monday on news of the government’s plans, Chinese shares resumed their decline, with losses on Wednesday spreading from more speculative issues (many of which have now halted trading) to investor favorites listed on United States exchanges, like the online retailer the Alibaba Group and the Internet search company Baidu. But Chinese stocks rebounded on Thursday.
“From a Western market perspective, what China is trying to do cuts against everything we know that will work,” said Tsuyoshi Jin Saito, a founder and managing director of the Observatory Group, an economic and political advisory firm based in Washington. “But they don’t see this the way we do. People in the Western democracies tolerate volatility. But the failure of equity markets in China could translate into social unrest, which is a horrifying prospect for the Chinese leadership.”
For all the recent talk of liberalizing Chinese markets and opening them to more foreign investment, they remain as much political institutions as financial ones. It was Chinese government-sanctioned talk about the high returns offered by stocks that helped stoke the rally that caused valuations to double in just four months earlier this year. Many Chinese investors are now looking to their president, Xi Jinping, to make good on that encouragement and the implicit guarantee that came with it.
No one doubts that China could step up the effort. “The truth is, they have the resources to pour into this if they want to,” said Robert F. Whitelaw, chairman of the finance department at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the co-author of several articles on valuations in China’s stock markets. “The Chinese government’s wealth is huge. They have incredibly deep pockets.”
…
Investing Guide
China’s stock market crash … in 2 minutes
By Charles Riley @CRrileyCNN
The China market collapse explained
China’s stock markets are suffering their worst crash since the global financial crisis. If you’re just catching up to it, here’s what you need to know. Last updated: July 9 10:15 p.m. ET (2:15 am GMT).
1) Stocks appear to be pulling back from the brink. The benchmark Shanghai Composite was trading higher Friday, building on major gains made Thursday.
2) That doesn’t mean the crisis is over. Trading was extremely volatile, and investors are still very nervous.
3) The root cause: Over the past year, investors poured more and more into Chinese stocks, even though economic growth and company profits were weak.
4) Retail investors — think mom and pop, average folks — were the most enthusiastic. A classic bubble developed.
5) The bubble popped on June 12, and since then, the Shanghai Composite index has lost about 30% of its value. The smaller Shenzhen Composite is down around 40% over the same period.
6) Roughly half of all listed companies have pulled their shares off the market. That wouldn’t be allowed in the U.S., but it’s permitted in China.
7) China is trying desperately to control the crisis. The government has given money to brokerages to buy stocks — and ordered company executives not to sell their shares. New company listings have been suspended. The central bank has cut interest rates to a record low.
9) But take a deep breath. Foreigners own just 1.5% of Chinese shares, so your portfolio is unlikely to be affected. Still, economists are worried that stock losses will ripple through China’s economy, and take a bite out of consumer spending. Already, gold and copper prices have been affected.
10) The government’s goal is to minimize damage to the real economy. So far, the country’s banking system is holding up well, and Beijing still has additional policy tools at its disposal.
…
If you read nothing else before deciding whether to jump into the Chinese market with both feet, read this!
World
China’s Stock-Market Woes Trace Roots to Earlier Stimulus
Hangover lingers from 2008 emergency bailout; empty trains in Shanghai
By James T. Areddy
Updated July 9, 2015 11:18 p.m. ET
SHANGHAI—Before China’s stock market suddenly needed saving, it was supposed to be helping to pay for the country’s last emergency bailout.
In the past year, Chinese leaders and securities regulators cheered a rising stock market as a pillar of a strategy to ease the hangover of a seven-year borrowing binge that ballooned Chinese banks past the combined size of those in the U.S. and Japan.
Now, China’s all-hands-on-deck response to heavy share selling is a reminder of how authorities sewed long-term problems into the financial system back in 2008. At that time, they framed the winds of a gathering global financial crisis as a political battle, language echoed today in the stock-market rescue.
When Beijing policy makers set out to address a setback, frequently their initial intensions get exaggerated through the authoritarian political structure.
“The only playbook they have features administrative controls,” says David Lampton, a professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Stocks in China appeared to find support on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 5.8% and the smaller Shenzhen market rising 3.8%. But analysts warn the strategies used to prop them up will be difficult to unwind, like the legacy of 2008.
China acted with haste after the autumn 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers appeared to threaten the country’s export model. The governing State Council unveiled a $586 billion package that November to fund infrastructure, construction and social spending, an amount three times bigger than stimulus proposed by leaders in the European Union and one greeted with relief in foreign capitals.
Then, state companies and local governments piled in with add-on programs that became permanent costs. Policy makers said economic stability was so important that regional governments, even ones heavily in debt, would be permitted to tap bond markets for the first time.
Eight weeks after the stimulus announcement, in the kind of action repeated nationwide, a government-led consortium got to work spending 5.8 billion yuan ($930 million) to revive a historic Shanghai railway depot that had fallen into disuse.
Many projects launched in crisis expanded even after stability returned.
Charlene Chu, a senior partner at Autonomous Research Asia Ltd. and a leading authority on China’s embrace of debt-fueled growth in the postcrisis years, called its scale “beyond anything the world has ever seen.”
Ms. Chu estimates that China’s banking-sector assets at the end of June approached 30 trillion yuan, compared with 9 trillion yuan in 2008. The growth was primarily driven by new loans.
The stock market’s expansion in the past year was supposed to rebalance China’s economy away from this kind of debt. The idea was to give companies an opportunity to recapitalize with issues of equity, orienting the business sector more toward the market and away from government-allocated credit.
Beijing talked up stocks and permitted new ways for investors to buy shares on credit, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index to a one-year gain topping 150% in mid-June.
But the run-up did little to rebalance China. One measure shows only 4.2% of new financing in China came from equity during the first five months of this year, according to figures from UBS’s Wang Tao. The bulk continues to come from banks.
That was above the 2.6% rate in 2014. Ms. Chu calls the result “an extremely small drop in the bucket in terms of deleveraging, almost irrelevant.”
When brokerages began calling in margin loans last month, the market began its tailspin. Initially authorities held their fire, allowing the market to settle lower on its own.
Daili Wang, an analyst at Roubini Associates in Singapore, says Beijing’s original caution may have reflected an effort by President Xi Jinping’s team to distance itself from the previous administration that had designed the 2008 response.
“They maybe realized their predecessors had done too much in 2008,” Mr. Wang said. He called the first response “the new normal instead of the old normal.”
Now, Chinese regulators have halted initial public offerings and sent open-ended orders to big state entities to support the market. Analysts fear the result will extend the economy’s debt dependence without addressing the existing overhang.
“If the equity market fails to function as a valid funding source for companies, they could turn back to bank loans again,” Nomura economists wrote in an investment note on Thursday.
The Shanghai West railway station is now a monument in curved glass to the 2008 crisis. By mid-2010, it welcomed its first passenger trains but local authorities didn’t declare it completed until last year after linking it to a subway line and manicuring gardens of bamboo at its perimeter.
A problem: Shanghai has three other major train stations.
Today, there is no hint of the bustle depicted in posters for a new “landmark of Shanghai” that hang near never-occupied shop space and a closed elevator.
…
phony scandals
screen.yahoo.com/white-000000112.html - 794k -