The Housing Bubble

Adan, your pro-China screeds have chased off quite a few of the intelligent posters we used to have.

It is beyond understanding. How can you possibly think that overburdening what used to be a “good read” blog with your screeching propaganda promotes public discourse? The volume, velocity and monotony of your China jags is the exemplar of OCD gone wild.

Gresham’s law in action: the bad money (in this case, content) chases out the good.

Jane, i’m not sure who you think he’s running off.

nearly everyone on this blog is against him. but he keeps posting articles to back up his position anyway.

i’ve seen your posts and i think you’re mostly on the same side of the fence as i am. that is, to the right. Dan is also mostly to the right. he’s just stuck on china. i could nitpick a few issues with him, but as another poster says sometimes “he carries enough water” that it’s hard to get after him for posting so much on one subject. he’s a lawyer and it’s in his nature to be like a pitbull and not let go.

yes, i’m against Dan on some issues but i think he’s good poster overall for this blog. he provides some contrast. who would everyone talk about if he stopped posting?

if more conservatives posted here i’d actually argue with him more on certain things. but he’s just about alone here.

btw, SFBayArea good to see you back posting again too. i know you’ve recently turned socialist, but that’s ok. (you little socialist you)

“Comment by tj
2015-07-16 20:07:12

Jane, i’m not sure who you think he’s running off.”

Bird-brains of a feather
Propagandize together.

Some people consistently misconstrue this blog as a political battle ground between conservatives and liberals.

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,
Adored by little statesmen, philosophers and divines.

– Ralph Waldo Emerson

“he carries enough water”

He eats enough crow…

we can always count on you to chime in after most of posting is done, can’t we professor bore?

Hardly, you are tilting against windmills, China is not collapsing like you predicted it is growing around 7% as I predicted and more and more experts agree that China has made the soft landing on its housing bubble. Ironically, even the article Ben posted admitted to that.

If building empty cities is growth. It signifies non-growth to me. Some might even question the IQ of such central planners.

From Ben’s article:

“China had already experienced a dangerous bubble in its residential housing market, but in that case the government had succeeded in engineering a relatively soft landing by raising interest rates, limiting the number of residences one owner could buy in such cities as Beijing and Shanghai and levying a new tax”

‘From Ben’s article’

I just posted it with a link, it’s not my article. I don’t have to agree with everything in an article to post it.

There is no record of a bubble bursting into a soft landing.

If building empty cities is growth.

It is considered growth in any country in the world and there is considerable evidence that they will not stay empty for long. However, assume for a minute that many do not fill-up as planned. So which is worse, the U.S. that has a stimulus program that pays extended unemployment benefits and increases food stamp eligibility while eliminating the work requirement or a stimulus that requires people to work, develop their trade skills and preserves their dignity and teaches their children that you need to work for a living? Some of China’ cities may not become adequately populated but it is still far better than the Obama/Pelosi stimulus consisting of hand outs.

’still far better than the Obama/Pelosi stimulus…’

Are we talking about China?

I am comparing the two countries and making a very legitimate point. We do compete with each other. I have been very clear, I think the U.S. will collapse far sooner than the U.S. so I really do not understand why we spend so much time on China and so little time on the signs of an imminent U.S. collapse. I do not know your reason but I do know with people like PB it is to avoid admitting what a mess Obama has created. A monkey could have kept the country going by adding 9 trillion in debt but it is not just kicking the can down the street, it is creating a bigger problem than the cyclical recession he faced when he took office.

China is the engine of growth for the world ??

Not the whole world Adan….Does the USA need China or does China need the USA ?? Want to see some more turmoil in the Chinese markets…Wait until the FED starts raise rates while China is cutting theirs…

Correction: U.S. will collapse far sooner than China.

More evidence of a China slowdown - wow, an estimated 20% of GM’s sales now come from there:

http://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2015/07/16/general-motors-brian-johnson-china-audi/30233857/

Actually, the Chinese by buying U.S. bonds keeping interest rates low fueling the housing bubble and by buying high tech products and creating demand for Starbucks, Yum brands etc. it was the engine of growth for the U.S. now that it is moving up the value added chain, it is more and more of a detriment to the U.S. since it is directly competing. Thus, the reason why the PTB’s MSM does not skip a beat in trying to hurt China. As soon as the Yuan becomes a reserve currency and that is imminent we are in for a world of hurt. Anything the media can do to delay it by questioning the stability of China is greatly appreciated by the PTB.

“Correction: U.S. will collapse far sooner than China.”

Click!

the Chinese by buying U.S. bonds keeping interest rates low ??

Yes Adan…Them along with the rest of the world…Why ?? Because we are a safer haven then their own friggen country…Why do they buy our 10 year @ 2.2 % when they can buy the yuan @ 6% ?? You tell me Adan….

Because they earned dollars and wanted some place to invest those dollars instead of creating too much of a money supply in their own country causing inflation. BTW, that pretty much stopped a few years ago.

“Correction: U.S. will collapse far sooner than China.”

Most of your corrections are unnecessary, but it was helpful here. I don’t disagree… The US is likely to fall before China does. That should not be a surprise, considering that the US rose long before China did. One could argue that China’s rise the US’s fall are the same thing.

And I also agree on China’s projects. Make-work is work nonetheless. After all, Americans (and Chinese too) still hike on nature trails built during the Depression in the name of make-work.

I’m not a currency person, but could some econ expert tell me what would happen to the value of the yuan if it becomes a reserve currency? Wouldn’t it skyrocket to the point where Chinese labor becomes too expensive for the world to buy? Then the Chinese will really be like the US just with a 40-year lag.

I’m not a currency person, but could some econ expert tell me what would happen to the value of the yuan if it becomes a reserve currency?

It is unofficially tied to the dollar right now so I do not imagine it would increase too much given the size of its economy but China wants its citizens to have additional buying power so an appreciating currency would not be a huge concern unless it started to go too far at which point it would take actions to depreciate it, like printing more money.

“And I also agree on China’s projects. Make-work is work nonetheless. After all, Americans (and Chinese too) still hike on nature trails built during the Depression in the name of make-work.”

Not all ditch digging projects are of equal value. Unlike the eventual fate of those empty high-rise apartment buildings, those Depression-era nature trails are still in use 80 years after construction.

Classic ABQ DAN when talking about China.

“’still far better than the Obama/Pelosi stimulus…’”

Thank you, I know I make useful comparisons. Now your comparisons of Reagan to Obama when we are talking about Reagan suggest that you like magic mushrooms.

“It is considered growth in any country in the world and there is considerable evidence that they will not stay empty for long.”

I don’t know what kind of mental retardation you’re suffering from, but Ordos has been a ghost city for more than 6 years now, with no sign of ever changing.

http://www.thebohemianblog.com/2014/02/welcome-to-ordos-world-largest-ghost-city-china.html

I have posted numerous article about “ghost towns” that have not stayed that way. I also have posted an article that the Chinese have twenty year plans for many of these cities so six years is not conclusive of the final outcome. Finally, I stated today that some of these towns may not work out but building them was still better than giving people a straight handout.

“still far better than the Obama/Pelosi stimulus…”

Which is ironic, because much of the Obama stimulus was tax breaks and tax cuts. Isn’t that the precise “supply side” economics that A-Dan says is making China so successful, and that the US should adopt?

So, the US adopted supply-side tax breaks and it didn’t heal the economy properly. Meanwhile China’s centrally planned trickle-up make-work projects are giving China this magic 7% growth.

You can’t have it both ways, Dan.

“ghost towns”…building them was still better than giving people a straight handout.

Wrong. Wasting money does not create wealth. The money they wasted building unnecessary cities reduced the standard of living for everyone around the world.

“Which is ironic, because much of the Obama stimulus was tax breaks and tax cuts. Isn’t that the precise “supply side” economics that A-Dan says is making China so successful, and that the US should adopt?”

Uh-oh, he might go missing for the rest of the day so he doesn’t have to answer to getting clowned.

Wasted nonrenewable resources as well…

“I’m not a currency person, but could some econ expert tell me what would happen to the value of the yuan if it becomes a reserve currency?”

The recent government sacking of the Chinese stock market makes this development far less likely, at least until the communists can restore the confidence of the international financial community that the normal rules of trade might not be summarily suspended at any moment.

I’m really not sure what to think anymore. I never thought re-spiking house prices was even possible, so I certainly am not one to predict what is coming.

Please do add this to the list of things Dan has completely wrong. Singapore accounts for 12% of what China imports. China imports in general are falling off a cliff Danny. That is why their trade surplus is unusually high right now. This is not a sign of growth. GDP goes up when you eat your seed corn, but not in a sustainable way.

Our entitlement programs are the reason our savings rate is so low. When I was growing up it was hammered into people they should have saved six months of their income. Most of our entitlement programs were designed with the belief that people would have six months saved. Thus, you were not eligible to receive things like food stamps until you exhausted your six months of savings. But what people saw was the irresponsible “grasshoppers” received immediate help and the “ants” only ended up using up their savings during hard times. Thus, more and more lived the lifestyle of the grasshoppers and spent 103% of their incomes. I see two choices do away with the programs or turn them into loans like student loans that never get discharged so people do not abuse them and at least try to be self sufficient in good times and bad.

Depending on which welfare program you’re talking about, upwards of half of them aren’t even of voting age.

And their parents are often not citizens.

“When I was growing up it was hammered into people they should have saved six months of their income.”

It goes back further. My grandfather predicted the passage of F.I.C.A. in 1935 would destroy incentives for American households to save for their own future needs.

You can make that statement about anything that the government does. It’s often instructive to consider the armed forces. Ever since the founding fathers established an army and a navy, the incentives for households to provide for their own national security has been dramatically reduced.

Really, you cannot see the difference? Just where can I buy a nuke?

There are plenty of differences. I was referring to the early days of the country. That was long before nuclear weapons. However, the reason that you can’t buy a nuke s because of big government. They use the coercive power of the state to prevent you from arming yourself so that you can protect yourself. They want a monopoly of national security, so you have to rely on them for protection from foreign invasion.

I was referring to the early days of the country.

In the early days of the country people could own any weapon that was in existence. However, a small standing army made sense and was explicitly provided for in the constitution. Federal entitlement programs are directly contrary to the thinking of the framers since they all agreed what would bring an end to the democratic republic was the ability of poor people to vote themselves the money of the wealthy.

You’re not really disagreeing with me. You may think that a small standing army made sense, but it still reduced incentives for individuals to provide for their own national security.

So your statement about the “thinking of the framers” is incorrect. There have always been people who have been so poor that they pay no taxes. So if the framers provided for an army and a navy, those poor people would be getting defense from foreign invasion for free, which is thus a form of “redistribution”.

‘the Founders were suspicious of a permanent military force and not until the outbreak of World War II did a large standing army become officially established. The National Security Act of 1947, adopted following World War II and during the Cold War’s onset, created the modern U.S. military framework; the Act merged previously Cabinet-level Department of War and the Department of the Navy into the National Military Establishment (renamed the Department of Defense in 1949), headed by the Secretary of Defense; and created the Department of the Air Force and National Security Council.’

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces

So if the framers provided for an army and a navy, those poor people would be getting defense from foreign invasion for free, which is thus a form of “redistribution”.

And that type of transfer was never considered a huge problem. It is the actual transfer of wealth from one person to another that was always forbidden. That is the very purpose of an entitlement program.

did a large standing army

Exactly, why I said a small standing army. It was always considered to be a necessary evil but it always existed for the protection of the country.

How were transfers of wealth forbidden?

The constitution created a limited government. Any power not explicitly reserved to the federal government belonged to the states or the people. Even the right to levy an income tax had to be passed by constitutional amendment. Then, the US Supreme Court in the 1930s greatly expanded the powers of the federal government after court packing created a Supreme Court overruled previous decisions striking down a good part of the New Deal because it was unconstitutional. Show me the part of the constitution that explicitly allows the transfer of wealth from one individual to another!!

Show me the part of the constitution that explicitly allows the transfer of wealth from one individual to another!!

You just wrote that the Supreme Court approved of various New Deal programs. You can look up the rationale for yourself.

Furthermore, I bet that you can find a welfare program or two that was enacted before FDR. There have got to be many things that the federal government did before over the years that are not explicitly mentioned in the constitution. The Louisiana Purchase comes to mind.

Oh, one more thing …

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

‘it backed down because China had a legitimate beef’

I don’t know, but the switcheroo has brought more attention to the remark than it would have originally. Like the reaction to stocks crashing caused more harm than the stocks crashing.

‘Revive the A-shares, benefits to the people!’ People are going to be laughing at that one for decades.

Perhaps you are not aware of the steel, rebar and cement needed to build a plant. The numbers were crunched decades ago. There simply isn’t enough for millions let alone billions of people.

The technology is far different now.

Any study more than five years old is useless considering the advancements made in desalination.

Oh they’re sooo rich.

No, they are not but they are not starving by the tens of millions as they were in 1959 until the early 60s and ironically I don’ think you would have wanted to drink the water or breath the air back then either due to no pollution controls. China, now that it does have sufficient wealth, is taking actions to improve its environment.

“China is now ahead of the U.S. in desalination.”

Yeah, there’s a high bar. The US isn’t bothering with desal because they don’t need it. Even in Cali, they didn’t need it until very recently.

And wait until the wealthy Chinese want even more wealth. They will start whining about crushing regulations and threatening to shut down the Chinese EPA.

China is the US, just 40 years late and a little compressed.

Albuquerque

Indeed. You see “economies of scale” then saving China ?
Can you see yourself wearing an air pollution mask in Albuquerque?
And those bubbling scenic yellow lakes?

Do you remember how polluted Japan was forty years ago? It is normal to obtain some wealth before you address pollution problems. First you worry about providing three meals a day to your population and then you worry about the chemicals that might kill them in thirty years.

The US isn’t bothering with desal because they don’t need it.

The entire Southwest will need it soon. Fortunately, there is a lot of brackish ground water. P.S. But for all the illegals that move in the Southwest would not have needed it.

You have an agenda. A rather interesting one. It works efficiently when you believe people are expendable.
That you do.
Even Stalin had his followers to the very end.

I do not think people are expendable that is why I am against porous borders. I think Americans of all incomes have the right to be free from immigrant crime and not have to face excessive competition for jobs.

Heh heh, that reminds me of the courtroom scene at the end of the movie ‘Airplane,’ where they have subtitles as the African-American man talks: “sheeee - it” ["golly"]

Can’t they put filters on the websites? And anywhere I’ve been to a library, you have to have a library card to sign in, and there’s a time limit.

There are constitutional problems with filters.

You can have just a limited number of computers without filters but a blanket prohibition runs a foul of the 1st amendment.

“There are constitutional problems with filters.”

Isn’t it odd that there are constitutional problems with putting common sense rules in at the public library but no problems with Presidential executive orders and failure to enforce (regardless of party affiliation) legitimate laws passed by the Congress ? Courts seem to jump gleefully on the first and run like h*** on the second.

In my town one of the libraries is located in the civic center near city hall, though city hall is actually a number of buildings. The good thing about that is that the police department is around 200 yards from the library.

And anywhere I’ve been to a library, you have to have a library card to sign in, and there’s a time limit.

Yes, that’s the way it works, and the computer lab is booked solid until closing time, every day.

If you have your own laptop or tablet you can use the library’s WiFi, but the dregs don’t appear to own such things.

“There are constitutional problems with filters.”

Isn’t it odd that there are constitutional problems with putting common sense rules in at the public library

I have suggested to the Library director and the Board that they close the computer lab, as it only attracts the dregs. The answer is that they can’t because the library has to be “current” and “modern” to attract patrons … even if they are the wrong kind of patrons.

What they don’t get through their skulls is that it’s the moms with kids and normal adults who make the library necessary. If they reach the point where only the dregs use the library (to watch porn), and not taxpayers, it will become much easier for city hall to justify reducing its funding, and possibly eventually shutting it down altogether.

It is sad I use to love libraries.

Maybe they should just move all the computers into a back corner of the library, so that the patrons interested in books wouldn’t have to go near them.

Maybe they should just move all the computers into a back corner of the library, so that the patrons interested in books wouldn’t have to go near them.

It is, but the dregs often hang out in other parts of the library, especially while waiting for their computer time slot. And they cause a lot of trouble. Reports of thefts (cell phones are a popular target) are on the rise. There have been reports of creeps hanging out in the stacks, leering at young girls, sometimes even approaching them (this usually results in the cops being called).

The word is that mothers increasingly feel that the library is no longer a safe place to bring their small children.

Where’s his American birth certificate?

Cruz is the nightmare candidate for liberals a brilliant conservative with all the credentials so they can’t do what they did to Palin.

The same could be said for Romney and he blew it

Born in Canada, I believe…would Cruz open a “birther” issue for the Democrats?

“The same could be said for Romney and he blew it”

Nobody could have seen Hurricane Sandy coming!

The same could be said for Romney and he blew it

Romney was not a true conservative and more importantly he was born to wealth and privilege and he was not Hispanic. Still he came within a few points of beating an incumbent president which is very rare in American politics thus the reelection of W even during the Iraqi war.

Libs likely won’t raise a substantial protest. They’ll just taunt the Obama birthers who thought that apple-pie U-S-A U-S-A citizen Stanley Dunham wasn’t enough.

What did “they” do to Palin? She was a light-weight Alaska governor who spent most of her time shopping and settling personal vendettas. She quite half-way thru her term to pursue a lucrative career at FOX. She is now rich.

She dumped Alaska for FOX. What did the “liberals” do to this lady except make her rich?

Oh, I’m sorry; there was that famous question “What books have you read lately?” That was surely a liberal set-up.

I am guessing you do not read many books; except of course those “written” by Bill O’ Reilly or “written” by Sarah Palin.

but if you are being deported, do they have a constitutional right to an interpreter….criminal yes…. deportation no.

I know of an English woman who was offended that she was forced to take the test when she naturalized.

We need these people to speak American English. She needs to say soccer, not football, apartment, not flat, etc.

but if you are being deported, do they have a constitutional right to an interpreter….criminal yes…. deportation no.

Even in Mexico, if you are in court and do not speak Spanish, the Mexican constitution stipulates that you have the right to a court appointed and paid for interpreter.

And in case you are wondering why the Mexican Constitution would stipulate something detailed like that, it’s because the Mexican Constitution is HUGE. It’s like a book, it has 130 Articles, many of which are very detailed . Unlike ours, it can be amended by a 2/3 majority in the house and senate. None of this business of sending it to State Houses for approval. When the PRI had its stranglehold on Mexico it constantly amended the constitution. Now that the PAN and PRD have a non trivial presence in the congress, no one even has a simple majority, nevermind a supermajority.

Also, when the Mexican President is sworn in, he swears by the Constitution, and not the Bible.

Racis

If they can they shop at Walmart often.

Hmmm, interesting . . . I can just see it now, the new transgender clothing line at Kmart, “Caitlyn”

Yeah, I’d also hate to see an uncontrolled epidemic. They’re no fun.

There’s a Dr. Seuss book about exactly that:

The Sneeches and Other Stories

I read it to my kids before bedtime.

I got a tattoo when I was a junior in high school and I don’t regret it. I’m a double nickel and there is no sagging either. Not to mention it comes with what is now a funny story.

“When you sleep with someone your body makes a promise whether you do or not!” —CrazyChick

The Car Crash - Vanilla Sky
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xohWvO9i4c

There really are insane women like that even here.

“Tattoo = douche bag!”

I guess those lower back tattoos don’t get it up for you?

“Tattoo = douche bag!”

Let me know when you walk into the Biker bar and scream that Cracker Bob.

I’d like to be there to watch.

A room full of Village People on the sauce?

Excerpt:

“Wholesale prices in Southern California jumped by about 70 cents late last week. A report on gasoline inventories from the U.S Department of Energy appears to have sparked the run-up,” as U-T San Diego reported. “Statewide inventories of low-polluting gasoline blends, meanwhile, shrank to 10.04 million barrels on July 3 — the lowest in 12 months, according to the California Energy Commission.”

Regulators in Washington, D.C. added more bad news. According to the San Jose Mercury News, “federal energy officials say California refiners had to use 1.1 million barrels from their storage tanks. It’s so bleak that imports to the West Coast sank to zero last week after averaging more than 100,000 barrels a day over the previous four weeks.”

the highest gasoline prices in the lower 48 without a significant improvement in air quality

Los Angeles used to be infamous for its poor air quality. Its a lot better now.

Haven’t seen a significant improvement for a long time. California still has most of the dirtiest cities in the country.

Yeah, the big improvements were a few decades ago.

Yeah, the state legislature voted to take down the flag, just as the Reichstag voted Hitler into power.

Of course you have no idea.

Just like you have no idea of democrats selling baby organs for profit

Or the massive amount of murders and rapes done by illegals

No one has claimed that banning a flag would solve every problem. No state prevents a person from flying any flag on his house or car.

“baby organs for profit”

Goebbels could have learned a few things from our current conservative “journalists”.

Rule #1 - Rumors/BS spread twice as fast as the truth.

But you know what? These guys can spread all of the BS they want.

The kids born since 1980 have grown up listening to this crap, and watching the conservative/evangelical/big business Troika run the US into the ground. And seen the hypocricy.

Doing what Republicans/conservatives want to do (more of the same) is getting to be a really tough sell. Especially to those having a few functioning brain cells.

One thing the middle class kids (along with a lot of other people) have figured out is that economically, they have more in common with the so called “FSA” than they do with the so called “producers”

It’s not the FSA vs. the “producers”

It’s the WTFSA vs. WWATSA

“WTFSA” = Want their Fair Share Army

“WWATSA” = We Want All The S##t Army

+1 X-GSfixr. And the wide-eyed conservatives are drinking the Trump Kool-Aid believing his Common Man stage act is real, when in fact Trump himself is an agent of the WWATSA and is a crony capitalist of the first degree. The big banks and Wall St. have heavily funded Jeb and Hill. Trump has given money to Hill. It’s all one big country club circle jerk.

Isn’t he in the casino business?

Mafia Blocks can’t swim.

Just like California.

I was in Princeville for a week in late June 2015. “Tunnels” had fantastic snorkeling, I saw a few seat turtles and an eel.
Kauai is paradise!!

Were they Fukushima glow in the dark variety?