July 27, 2015

Bits Bucket for July 27, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 02:15:48


Comment by taxpayers
2015-07-27 03:37:14

how about a 5 yr staged bankruptcy w inflatable furniture.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 04:43:02

Anecdotal #1 - Realtor who does deals in south metro (Highlands Ranch and Littleton) told me that used houses that got 10 offers back in April now only get 3

Anecdotal #2 - Girl I met last weekend and was (past tense) interested in told me yesterday that when she finishes her graduate degree in physical therapy she will have over $150,000 in student loans

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2015-07-27 04:57:43

How much do Physical Therapists make?

It seems to me that $150k is an inordinate amount of debt to service on a PT’s salary, even one with a Master’s.

How did she use the proceeds of the $150k? How much went towards purely educational expenses (tuition, books, etc.) and how much went towards living expenses? What were the living expenses?

Comment by Combotechie
2015-07-27 05:05:12
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Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:08:45

She said she expects to make $60K after graduation. And yes, that is a lot (alot) of debt, no idea where all of that $150K is going but know I won’t be helping repay any of it

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Comment by Combotechie
2015-07-27 05:16:17

Let’s hope, for her sake, that becoming a Physical Therapist doesn’t become overly popular. If wages and salaries are high then the field can get quite crowded - crowded with people who are driven by debts to work at whatever salaries they can obtain.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-07-27 05:20:07

Trendy? Is becoming a Physical Therapist a “trendy” thing to do?

There’s danger in pursuing a good-paying occupation if the occupation is trendy.

Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 05:34:59

Unless you’re a glutton for punishment, the occupation is not trendy. In fact it is quite physically demanding, although some get around that by supervising the use of machines and exercise equipment at physical therapy offices. The actual body work, however, is very tough. One of my neighbors is a PT and works regularly for health organizations doing outcall to homebound patients. He has to do a lot of lifting and pulling, etc. and it is very tiring.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-07-27 06:43:38

By “trendy” I was thinking in terms as alluring. The allure may be appealing even though the reality may not be.

But possibly the reality won’t kick in until after graduation (and thousands of dollars of debt.)

Comment by rms
2015-07-27 08:21:58

“…but know I won’t be helping repay any of it”


“God ain’t made a man that could stand up to the power that lays between a woman’s thighs. You see, the hold that little cooter has on a man’s life is unbreakable. It can bring a strong man to his knees.” -Prentice Ritter, about why he lives on the range.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 09:16:10

It doesn’t bring a strong man to his knees.

No strong man lets a woman take him down.

Comment by jane
2015-07-27 21:37:57

Err - and vice versa, of course, lol!

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 10:56:46

$150k means she was living the good life and not working at all. A PT license takes a BS + 3 yrs.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:12:27

A PT license takes a BS + 3 yrs.

A racket. It should only take 3 years. The BS part is BS. My science degree would add nothing to 3 years of PT training imo.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:36:17

The BS helps you get hired and promoted and be more well rounded.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 05:07:08

#2 $1,000 a month will have that paid off in about 20 years. Should be no problem with a $60K/yr salary!

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 05:18:55

‘ paid off in about 20 years’

Never thought about it like that. Tons of college graduates basically leaving school already with a mortgage payment’s worth of debt but not necessarily with a good paying job. Can not blame them for at least going for a career that has prospects, but student debt is not gonna let them buy their first house any time soon. And student debt is not forgiven too. And these are young adults trying to deal with all the other things that get in the way of an average person. One can only hope that for their peers’ sake, student debt burden has reached peak status and will subside.

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Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 05:28:40

A nation of debt donkey with debts that will be collected into retirement by the Chinese.

Only bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can fix this.

Can you imagine a nation with affordable higher education where the government let loan agreements between students and colleges be private and subject to all fraud and bankruptcy laws?

I know - hard to by FSA votes that way.

Comment by ComfortableClass
2015-07-27 07:25:11

These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses. More printing.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 07:52:44

I wouldn’t be surprised if the current administration socializes these losses - with an announcement, say, in September/October 2016.

November 2016 is the election.

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 09:37:00

I posted this last week but I’ll repeat: I’m sure that the student debt is the driver behind the new mortgages which are 0% down mortgages but still require fully amortized PITI.

With a $60K job, Goon’s cute PT can afford the rent and student debt nut, but can’t save for a down payment at the same time. One solution is a 0% down mortgage to convince the PT to shift from a rent payment into a mortgage payment NOW, so she won’t have to scrimp and save for a decade.

The other solution, of course, is to land a meal ticket. Sounds like the goon lowered the vas boom on that fast.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 09:46:45


The math doesn’t work. Not for you. Not for Goon’s latest squeeze.

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 10:21:19

These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses.

I think a good compromise is to discharge only the tuition debt, and leave the students on the hook for living expenses. At least when I was in college, tuition (not including books/fees) was 2/3 the total cost. So goon’s PT would have to pay back $50K, which is manageable.

I wouldn’t be against that, IF they filed a REAL BK, not the mamby-pamby FICO hit. No new debt for 7 years — no house, no car financing, secured credit card.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 10:40:40

” a good compromise ”

The problems with this kind of debt are that it was ever borrowed and that it was ever loaned.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 11:04:34

I financed my own education, ended up owing $10k after getting by BS from one of the best colleges in CA. I paid it off from the proceeds of my first place in 2003. I bought that place in 1989 for $230k in a beach town, sold for $419k. They go for $559k today and they are lame tri-levels with a high/nazi HOA.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 11:10:09

“These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses. More printing.”

I dont think so. If they are I would go back and get my MBA or maybe something more fun like an MFA, live it up, then file BK.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 11:30:54

I financed my own education, ended up owing $10k after getting by BS from one of the best colleges in CA.

If it was a state university, the taxpayers of California paid for most if your education.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:05:10

“If it was a state university, the taxpayers of California paid for most if your education.”

And the roads and bridges I used to get there. Nothing new.

“You didnt build it”

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:15:07

The math doesn’t work.

By the time you’re done saying that, peeps will have paid off their house.

Do the math. It works. That’s why it’s called math.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 12:28:56

Hello Lola.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 05:11:47



Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 11:22:04

2 Ban- Why do you think “this time is different?”

Bush/GOP had full control for 6 yrs–where is the smaller gov and less spending?

Dont you get it? They lie to you and you vote for them.

Even Reagan grew the gov and tripled the deficit.

You need to dump the GOP, find a new clan.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-07-27 21:56:45

He’s senile. Explains the poor diction and repletion. He turns on Fox, gets enough adrenalin in his system to type a few hundred words of loonacy every day

Comment by taxpayers
2015-07-27 06:11:13

no problem Hilery will make u pay her tab
“make affordable”

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 07:55:09

Anecdotal #2 - Girl I met last weekend and was (past tense) interested in told me yesterday that when she finishes her graduate degree in physical therapy she will have over $150,000 in student loans

Reminds me of a banner ad I often see on this website for the “Art Institute”. The ad states that students can get as 20K scholarship which covers 25% of the tuition to get a degree. So, getting a graphics arts degree from a for profit school cost $80,000 ($60K actually, as those “scholarships” are really discounts).

Meanwhile, you can get a degree at Mesa State University in Grand Junction for $0 (yes, tuition free), if you have good HS grades (3.75 GPA) and an SAT score of 1200 (or an ACT of 29). And there are other State U’s that are much, much cheaper than any Private school. Yet I constantly meet kids who attend local Private U’s (like DU or Regis) that charge $30K or more per semester, and who are racking up mind boggling student loan debt.

Comment by ibbots
2015-07-27 08:08:30

‘charge $30K or more per semester’ - that should be a crime. Univ of Phoenix is another.

I know a youngster, 25, who got a nursing degree with $0 student loans. She worked, lived at home some, went to junior colleges…landed a job in a level one trauma center as an ER nurse.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 11:32:22

It’s not about the education. It’s about the scam.

Tons of advertisements for A&P schools, due to the “shortage” of aircraft mechanics.

So the kid signs up. Takes out a (say) $60K school loan.

Deposits the $60K with the school.

And the kicker……

Pays for the school UP FRONT.

Four months go by. Student is in the “General” courses. Basically designed to determine if you have the smarts to get in the “A” and “P” courses. Back in my day, these courses “culled the herd” by 50-75%. With today’s public education, I can’t see it being any better.

Or they find out that any kind of drug charge/conviction means that the FAA won’t issue you a license.

For the guys that can’t pass……no A&P. But the school pockets the whole $60K. And the student still owes the bank $60K (not dischargable) for the student loan.

Our economy is not designed around “growth”. It designed around ever-multiplying ways to rip people off.

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 13:36:46

I had to look it up. Airframe and Powerplant. 12-24 month program.

Is that $60K for the full 2 years? Does the school keep all the money if you have to withdraw for some other reason, like family emergency or illness? Or just if you flunk? And how is this legal? They are making you pay for services not rendered.

Who is lending this $60K in one fell swoop? When I was in school, my Stafford loans were paid one semester at a time. You could borrow only very little for freshman/sophomore years. For junior/senior, they lend you a little more because they figure by then you won’t flunk. Similarly, if you defer paying back the loans (for example if you attend grad school), you have to re-defer every semester. Every semester of grad school, I had to send in a letter from the grad school registrar proving that I was actually attending grad school. So one way or another, the gov tried not to lose any more than one semester of money.

It designed around ever-multiplying ways to rip people off.

No, it is designed around ever-multiplying ways to collect government cheese. Yup — those government haters love to decry government programs, but they are first in line to “administer” those programs.

For-profit schools are simply a funnel for government student loan money. The closure of Corinthian was a shot across the bow.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 08:12:46

” kids who attend local Private U’s (like DU or Regis) that charge $30K or more per semester, and who are racking up mind boggling student loan debt”

I see it happening a lot with kids who probably otherwise wouldn’t go to college, coming from families with no college graduates. I think they see a real college as both culturally intimidating and also a place where you have to take ’stupid’ stuff like history and English to fulfill basic requirements. The for-profit schools sell themselves as a place where you learn stuff that is explicitly for your major/career, with none of the other ‘fluff’.

What they don’t realize is how limiting and generally unimpressive a $45,000 degree in ‘hospitality management’ from some for-profit school is in the real world.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 08:35:09

I’m referring to for-profit schools, not small private liberal arts colleges, which are their own different wastes of money, except for the networking opportunities, which can sometimes pay off handsomely.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:34:07

I see it happening a lot with kids who probably otherwise wouldn’t go to college, coming from families with no college graduates.

DU (University of Denver) and Regis (A Jesuit School) are “real schools” but they are not any better than CSU, CU or Northern Colorado U (UNC). You can get a degree at UNC for less than a single year at DU or Regis (I said 30K per semester, I meant per year). And if you are majoring in STEM, they can’t touch the Colorado School of Mines, another state U.

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 09:43:49

State schools have had to tighten their admissions. Maybe those for-profit and small-lib college are for the lackluster high schoolers who didn’t realize that getting into college starts in 8th grade. Now they’re stuck with bad HS grades and can’t get into the state colleges.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-07-27 21:58:01

Yeah, but you have to live in Grand Junction while you do it.

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Comment by rj chicago
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:07:25

over $150,000 in student loans

There is no inflation for decades.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 07:00:56

New York Times = Social Justice Warrior = Exterminate Whitey


Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:35:23

It seems to me that these day it’s not “whitey” who should be worried about being “exterminated”

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 10:51:33
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Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 12:35:13

Have you been partaking of your wares? ;-) Munch, munch.

Comment by rms
2015-07-27 17:54:50

“Since federal hate crime legislation passed in 2009…”

The jooz were responsible for this legislation, IIRC.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 17:51:36

the Jesus And Mary Chain - Honey’s Dead (entire album):


Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 04:14:09

“Major indexes suffered their largest one-day drop since 2007…”

“More than 1,500 shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen dived by the daily limit.”


$800 Billion and all they got was a one week blackout?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-07-27 22:00:19

And ABQ dan is nowhere to be seen. As much of an admission as we’ll ever get.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 04:57:15

Buy the f*cken dip!!!

When are the Chinese going to sell their American and Canadian real estate holdings to cover margin calls?


Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down
Zero Hedge | July 27, 2015

This was not supposed to happen.

After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China’s stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

The only question we have is when will people in other “developed” markets wake up to their own just as manipulated markets, and decide they too have had enough with the rigged casino.

Actually, there is another question: the last time Chinese stocks had a near-record crash, the PBOC somehow “discovered” 600 tons of gold hiding under the couch to prop up confidence. We wonder how much it will “discover” this time.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 06:26:38

Yep, there it is. The Asheville bubble about to pop-pop. I’ve been reading some of the Western North Carolina threads/blogs recently. Apparently, the traffic from May to October is horrendous. Lots of complaints.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 07:38:53

I lived in Asheville in 1996. It was still quiet-ish and just starting to get re-discovered by northern and FL refugees ( one and the same? half-backs…). Hard to make a buck there so I moved to Raleigh but the heat and humidity was too much, but houses were el cheapo back in the day then. Apartments were plenty and you had move-in specials all the time available.

I hate to see how Asheville has gentrified over the decades. Last time I was there was around 2000. That whole area is getting priced for perfection I bet. I love it for the trails and mountains and general lack of urban ugliness, but lesson I learned is to avoid making home in places like that because you can not eat the scenery for survival. So, the lucky ones have their Oil city and plenty of cash and can fly to Asheville or the NC mountains or California’s Sierra Nevada and do much better than vicariously living the life.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2015-07-27 08:37:34

Asheville is a hipster area now, right?

Raleigh - Durham has the tech companies, but they’re all private so when the economy tanks that area seems to get hit extra hard.

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Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 09:53:10

Yup, I know an musician who retired there. It’s fast turning into a hipster artist colony, the type of place that holds dozens of youngster art and music camps in the summers. The musician/artist retirees do the teaching, and the rest of the retirees buy tickets to all the culture.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 10:49:55

‘Asheville is a hipster area now, right?’

Good description. I saw it as a confluence of hippies, college kids, retirees, local yocals and a LGBT segment. Few good paying jobs but lotsa rent-seeking most likely. I’d like to go back to see how much development has happened but I am sure it would not be pretty. Wonder if they will ever sell off the Biltmore to some sheik?

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 14:04:00

Look on Google Maps. It’s pretty easy to distinguish bubble development from older houses on the satellite view. Old housing is all green lawn and trees with sprawled small rooflines. New crap is identical roofs laid out with a ruler. True cookie cutter.

From what I could tell, Asheville housing is mostly older stuff, not much newer stuff. The new stuff is probably urban infill, like those condos downtown. It’s not soulless yet.

Biltmore is still privately owned by the Vanderbilt family. They appear to be self-sustaining through house tours, winery, resort, etc. So the city can’t sell it off for cash.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 17:39:55

‘Biltmore is still privately owned by the Vanderbilt family. They appear to be self-sustaining through house tours, winery, resort, etc. So the city can’t sell it off for cash.’

No, I knew that it was still in the family. Not sure how much money the family has, but some ridiculous price is probably attached to the mansion and its land. Just saying one day it would not surprise me if a oil sheik paid a billion dollars for it based on what I see real estate gets. Whether they would ever need to sell it or be motivated, who knows.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:44:51

Flip that condo!

“Appreciated” $130,000 in just a year in NC!

Life is good with free money and the Fed at your back!

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 09:57:37

Zestimate: $267K. :lol:

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:27:34

I haven’t been on the internets much this weekend but went on Huffington Post today and found this Social Justice Warrior™ article titled “The Lafayette Theater Shooter Was Another Domestic Terrorist”


Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:46:10

And it is still to mystery to the MSM why a muslim killed four Marines…

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 07:55:15

Gives an excuse to install more Domestic Imperialism, does it not?

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:07:17

He’s no different from any other suicide bomber. The result is the same.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:14:34

The result is the same

Registration, Confiscation, Extermination

That’s what King Obama wants


Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:34:51

Enjoy your Kneejerk Rifle Association kool-aid. With the KRA, *any and all* gun regulation, no matter how narrow and carefully worded to protect public safety while not diminishing the gun rights of good citizens, is automatically the first step towards full confiscation.

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Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:42:09

The NRA are p*ssies, I’m only a member because my dad bought me a membership.

Rocky Mountain Gun Owners = zero compromise.

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:58:56

Same kool-aid, different flavor.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 09:16:20

I will tell that to the people of NYC, Chicago and Washington DC who, in reality, cannot legally own a gun for ANY REASON (unless politically connected).

Enjoy your Kneejerk Rifle Association kool-aid. With the KRA, *any and all* gun regulation, no matter how narrow and carefully worded to protect public safety while not diminishing the gun rights of good citizens, is automatically the first step towards full confiscation.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:30:43

Another article for the Social Justice Warrior™ that says Donald Trump is a fascist, the SJW talking points have all been regurgitated here in the past few days, it’s rather lazy and uncreative


Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 06:17:16

When you say “here”, do you mean Salon or here on the HBB? Because Rioddwpa were hard at it over the weekend, spitting up their various memes and talking points.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 06:26:27

Yeah here I read yesterday’s bits bucket last night

I am quite pleased that the SJW phrase has taken root here, you’re one of the few posters that gets it

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 07:48:46

You must have missed this one from your hero:

Comment by Selfish Hoarder

2015-07-26 18:47:07

You kidding? Trump wants Snowden executed. He is a bootlicker.

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Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 07:58:14

At least Bill can conjure an original thought in his brain

You bring nothing here but copied and pasted SPLC talking points

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 09:52:03

And you got that idea from Raymond. You mentioned SPLC, but you forgot to mention PC, SJW, feels before reals, etc.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 07:58:35

Well, time to inform us then.

I don’t live in an acronym world (I prefer to speak English).

What does SJW stand for Why should I care?

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Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 07:59:56

And occasionally I’ll use punctuation!

Comment by oxide
2015-07-27 10:06:25

Social Justice Warrior. Generally the bleeding heart wing of the Dem party. When the Free Sh!t Army gets an inch, they try to take a mile, and it’s the SJW’s that give them that mile like the suckers they are.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:39:11

spitting up their various memes and talking points.

I “spit up” American ideals and history. You are the one who does not know his country.

You’ve been had. Badly.

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:11:02

I never said Trump is a fascist. Trump, he’s just a crony capitalist, a Trojan horse who puts on a populist act during the election but will serve his oligarch friends once in office.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 09:59:20

“serve his oligarch friends once in office”

It is rather amusing that some seem to think Trump would ‘take on’ Wall Street or the NAR. Hell, he’s their creation, their Frankenstein.

Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 12:16:23

Hardly. He’s already starting to weasel. Sigh. I suppose it was inevitable.


Well, there he goes! Watch this ass clown drop like a rock, just like Romney did. You’d think he’d have learned from Romney. For one brief shining moment I thought we had someone who might do something about it.

He won’t recover from this. Too bad, all that lost revenue to turn weasel. Well, good on ‘im.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 19:22:27

As long as his only idea for ending illegal immigration is a big fence at the border, you know he’s not for real. When we finally get a politician who talks about locking up their employers, then we’ll know we’ve got the real deal.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-07-27 11:58:21

breaking -new show announced

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:38:54

but will serve his oligarch friends once in office.

That’s the thing about Trump. There is no way he’s not “bought”. It’s not like he “can’t be bought”. He’s already bought.

He has billions of dollars of his own interests to serve. Why would a middle class guy seeking campaign donations be more “bought” than a billionaire with huge money at stake potentially riding on political policies?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:34:23
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:35:28

So much for the Yen carry trade propping up the ultra-low-volume, HFT-driven US markets.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:39:17

Capitulation in Chinese bubble markets despite massive government meddling? Inconceivable!


Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:40:42

You’ve had your coffee and SJW news, now its time for Warmist Warming Monday


And because 2brony hasn’t clocked in for his shift yet, only bigger and bigger government, more and more regulations, and higher and higher taxes can solve this

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:46:17

Huffington Post wets the bed on warmism with some alleged “scientist”


That’s why I only read and watch FoxNewsHate because warming doesn’t happen there, WorldNetDaily is pretty good too

Comment by taxpayers
2015-07-27 06:12:13

NSF pays warmer scientist 150K+++

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 05:50:30

Yeah - because Alaska never had a forest fire before.

So time to ban something and raise taxes.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 06:22:30

Gay Boy Scout troop leader gonna teach you some Social Justice™

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:42:08

What what the do?

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Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 07:05:32

Reminds me of favorite Michael Jackson joke

Q: what time is bedtime at Neverland?

A: when the big hand touches the little hand

Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-07-27 06:21:33

I was in Alaska in 2004 or 2005 on an airline vacation package deal. Unfortunately there was a huge forest fire at the time. I was told it covered the size of Connecticut while the smoke covered the size of Texas. I could not see much of Denali when I was in Denali so I took an airplane tour of it. I was glad I did. Would have been disappointed not to see the mountain.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 08:01:37

Oh. SJW = Soclal Justice Warriors! Got it.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:40:58

The Ruble is tanking as oil keeps dropping - how long before Russia defaults on its dollar debts (again)?


Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:24:53

Russia has some of the lowest debt to GDP ratios of ANY developed nation.

With lots of gold and oil mining.

I do not see a default in their near future.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:43:47

1500 Chinese companies halted limit-down…this was NOT supposed to happen. Have the central planners lost control?


After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China’s stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:52:56

Coming soon to a Fed-blown Ponzi market near you.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 05:56:07

Meet the Kagans: the neo-con puppetmasters for most of the occupants of the GOP clown car.


Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-07-27 06:22:41

Those a$$ clowns are trying to vaporize the planet. They should be executed.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 06:36:51

Bill, consider that a significant percentage of the American electorate believe that the Earth is 6,000 years old, these people are the Kagans’ voter base

Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-07-27 07:09:30

Exactly. Idiocracy.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 19:42:42

“believe that the Earth is 6,000 years old”

The same people denying global warming.

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Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 06:32:33

At least two of them look like Flounder.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:41:12

Fat, dumb, and stupid is a better way to go through life than being a neo-con warmonger.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 07:15:35

Huckabee refuses to apologize for his comments about the Holocaust

The U.S. should coordinate the immigration of 5 million Israeli Jews to move here, end all foreign aid to the Middle East, and shut down every military base there

So sick of these neocon wars, the national debt is $18 Trillion+

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-07-27 08:39:06

‘As in any religion, its proselytizers erect grandiose testaments to their powerful faith. “Their monuments to themselves, their version of pyramids and ziggurats,” according to Engelhardt, are the “vast data storage center the NSA is building in Bluffdale, Utah, to keep a yottabyte of private information about all of us, or the new post-9/11 headquarters of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.”

‘As with fundamentalism of any kind, its adherents are impervious to the fact that their worldview is flat-out wrong. The national-security state’s militarized messianism to rid the world of terrorism and ensure U.S. hegemony has failed. “After all, if the twenty-first century has taught us anything, it’s that the most expensive and over-equipped military on the planet can’t win a war,” writes Engelhardt. “Its two multitrillion-dollar attempts since 9/11, in Iraq and Afghanistan, both against lightly armed minority insurgencies, proved disasters.”


Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:48:52

Ben Jones, the United States can do more by offering Constitutionally protected freedom of religion to historically (and present day, i.e. France) persecuted religious minorities than by dumping $600,000,000,000+ a year into a bottomless pit war machine just to satisfy the bloodlust of the Rapture voter demographic

Its almost 10am here and I have customers to serve, have a good day

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:41:58

Its almost 10am here and I have customers to serve, have a good day

At least they won’t be worrying about mushroom clouds popping up, will they?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:09:23

The U.S. should coordinate the immigration of 5 million Israeli Jews to move here, end all foreign aid to the Middle East, and shut down every military base there

When you write, “move here”, you mean Denver, right?

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 10:45:32

You think this idea is a joke? I’m dead serious

Let every resident of Tel Aviv with a bachelor’s degree or higher move to Denver/Boulder and within a decade we’ll be the next Silicon Valley

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:57:14

Why just Tel Aviv? And what about the people with degrees in the humanities?

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 11:39:11

Because the women from Tel Aviv are hot

Duran Duran wrote a song about them on their first album

Comment by rms
2015-07-27 19:45:24

“Because the women from Tel Aviv are hot”

Yep. http://picpaste.com/bar-refaeli.jpg

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 20:02:41

Her name is Rachel, and she dances on the sand,
Just like that river twisting through the promised land…

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:07:51

What are the Kagans, a bunch of academic/writer types? It is odd to focus on them instead of their paymasters.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-07-27 10:28:59

‘It is odd to focus on them instead of their paymasters.’

Clown car!

‘President Barack Obama is personally enamored with a recent essay written by neoconservative writer Bob Kagan, an advisor to Mitt Romney, in which Kagan argues that the idea the United States is in decline is false.’

‘In an off-the-record meeting with leading news anchors, including ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos and NBC‘s Brian Williams, Obama drove home that argument using an article written in the New Republic by Kagan titled “The Myth of American Decline.”

‘Obama liked Kagan’s article so much that he spent more than 10 minutes talking about it in the meeting, going over its arguments paragraph by paragraph, National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor confirmed to The Cable.’

‘National Security Advisor Tom Donilon will also discuss Kagan’s essay and Obama’s love of it Thursday night with Charlie Rose on PBS.’


Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:52:56

When it comes to foreign policy, the people who say that there’s not much difference between the two parties really have a valid point. One question to ask is why the two parties support the policies that they support. I don’t think that the answer to that question is that these Kagans are such talented writers.

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Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 10:49:25

There’s a theory that the think tanks the Kagan’s work for are heavily subsidized by the defense industry, which stands to make a bundle if all of the Kagan family policies are followed.

Comment by rms
2015-07-27 19:29:41

“…and casting aside fiscal discipline in favor of funneling tens of billions of new dollars to the Pentagon.”

The looting of the U.S. by these predators.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 05:59:03

More SJW news

Moonie rag the Washington Times reports on King Obama the Kenyan Crusader wanting to take all the guns away and put you in death camp


Planned Parenthood selling parts of dead babies is really nasty, but it still doesn’t make me support Scott Walker invading Iran on the day of his inauguration

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 08:08:16

Who do you like? If you were to vote today, whose lever would you pull?


There’s no one interesting on the left right now.
On the right, there’s Fiorina and Kusich.

Install Gowdy as attorney general and prosecute hundreds from all walks of political/Wall Street life. That guy is on it.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:19:51

Maybe, just maybe, Rand Paul.

In the February 2012 GOP caucus my precinct went first for Romney and Santorum came in second.

And I was one of the youngest people in the room…

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:43:23

Moonie rag the Washington Times reports on King Obama the Kenyan Crusader

I still think he should have taken Bruce Jenner on his Africa tour to show them how superior we are.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 11:21:55

Nairobi is considering a bid for the 2024 Olympics.

That’s what this is all about.

Heads up to Nairobi: Obama lost Chicago the 2016 bid. You might want to consider the advice of someone better qualified.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 12:39:31

Losing the bid will be the best thing that ever happened to them.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:51:44

Rio getting the Olympics will be a huge boon for Rio. (It already has been.) However, it will be a net loss dollarwise for the country.

You’re going to see a month of stunning postcard visuals from the most physically beautiful city in the world.

(And I’m not a Riophile)

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:00:08

One by one, all the states will fall like dominoes as Comrad Pelosi’s permanent Democrat Supermajority becomes a reality.


Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:27:16

1/5 the entire population of El Salvador now lives in America.

Multiply by all the other countries.

How can any nation survive this invasion of FSA future democrats?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:02:59

The Three Stooges “radical left” government in Greece lurches from one blunder to the next, yet they’re expecting a third bailout. Wake up, German taxpayers.


Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 10:54:45

The German taxpayers are already on the hook for the money loaned to Greece. Most of the “bailout” money that was supposedly given to Greece actually went to pay off the French and German banks. If Greece defaults, it will the the EU taxpayers who will be picking up the tab. The EU works much like our own country.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 12:56:01

Global Ponzi markets and asset bubbles headed for a meltdown.

Much of it is jive. The world will not end if a lot of numbers become lower numbers.

Everyone is scared of made up numbers. I know there is meaning to numbers but numbers don’t make life.

Comment by azdude
2015-07-27 06:05:52

Is it time to wheel out another fed member to create a short covering rally?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 06:25:34

This Fed meeting week sure is starting off on an interesting note! Did the Chinese government deliberately reignite the stock market panic in order to hand the FOMC a hot potato?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:07:15

I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”

– Edward Smith, Captain, RMS Titanic

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 06:11:00

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush, 2008

Comment by Trucker Cap
2015-07-27 09:47:51

De-leverage like it’s 2008!

“What’s in your safe?”

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:49:43

“Under our proposals, if you like your doctor, you keep your doctor. If you like your current insurance, you keep that insurance. Period, end of story.”
– Obama’s Presidential weekly address, July 18, 2009

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 10:56:54

“Mission accomplished.”

- George W. Bush, after he won the Iraq War.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:10:30

The thriving Jeffersonian Democracy we built there justified the staggering cost in dead, maimed, and trillions in direct and long-term costs.

Oh, wait….

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 06:09:48

Why wait for Scott Walker’s inauguration? Let’s get this party started now:


No “smaller government” or “lower taxes” happening here, LOLZ

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:10:56

Chinese knife catchers are hating life this morning.


Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 06:30:03

Just imagine the poor slobs who dove back into stocks on faith the government price support measures were good as gold.

Got anger?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:42:39

Anyone who puts their confidence in the Chinese government deserves to get their head handed to them.

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-07-27 15:05:37

I think you have to forgive Chinese people for it, though. They believe(d) in their own government.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:12:30

Should I feel sorry for the bagholders-to-be who bought into Housing Bubble 2.0 in the mistaken belief the Fed would never let its Ponzi markets and asset bubbles crater?

Comment by Puggs
2015-07-27 10:00:02

“Crater Rage” enters the Chinese vernacular. Anyone know the Chinese characters for such?

Comment by Michael Viking
2015-07-27 19:38:32

Here’s my attempt at a turn of phrase for crater rage: 破底積憤

I’m in Asia right now and the city I’m in has real estate at crazy, all-time highs. I bet there’s never been a better time to buy.

I’m watching the Shanghai exchange and it’s dropping again. Down 3% right off the bat.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:52:43

As muslims continue to attack liberal special interests as they start to dominate western culture (to include beating gays) - it will become popcorn time watching the MSM.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:23:23

See also: France

That’s the future that SJWs deserve, so much COEXIST it can kill you 8)

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-07-27 20:17:25

Sounds like you and the radical muslims are on the same side, banana.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:09:27

If it was a hairy guy wearing a Speedo, I’d probably beat his azz too. :)

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 06:19:45

Long and good article.

Not from the Drudge Report.


The Climate Wars’ Damage to Science
Quadrant Online | June 2015 | Matt Ridley

Sure, we occasionally take a swipe at pseudoscience—homeopathy, astrology, claims that genetically modified food causes cancer, and so on. But the great thing about science is that it’s self-correcting. The good drives out the bad, because experiments get replicated and hypotheses put to the test. So a really bad idea cannot survive long in science.

Or so I used to think. Now, thanks largely to climate science, I have changed my mind. It turns out bad ideas can persist in science for decades, and surrounded by myrmidons of furious defenders they can turn into intolerant dogmas.

What these two ideas have in common is that they had political support, which enabled them to monopolise debate. Scientists are just as prone as anybody else to “confirmation bias”, the tendency we all have to seek evidence that supports our favoured hypothesis and dismiss evidence that contradicts it—as if we were counsel for the defence. It’s tosh that scientists always try to disprove their own theories, as they sometimes claim, and nor should they. But they do try to disprove each other’s. Science has always been decentralised, so Professor Smith challenges Professor Jones’s claims, and that’s what keeps science honest.

This is precisely what has happened with the climate debate and it is at risk of damaging the whole reputation of science. The “bad idea” in this case is not that climate changes, nor that human beings influence climate change; but that the impending change is sufficiently dangerous to require urgent policy responses. In the 1970s, when global temperatures were cooling, some scientists could not resist the lure of press attention by arguing that a new ice age was imminent. Others called this nonsense and the World Meteorological Organisation rightly refused to endorse the alarm. That’s science working as it should. In the 1980s, as temperatures began to rise again, some of the same scientists dusted off the greenhouse effect and began to argue that runaway warming was now likely.

Since then, however, inch by inch, the huge green pressure groups have grown fat on a diet of constant but ever-changing alarm about the future. That these alarms—over population growth, pesticides, rain forests, acid rain, ozone holes, sperm counts, genetically modified crops—have often proved wildly exaggerated does not matter: the organisations that did the most exaggeration trousered the most money. In the case of climate, the alarm is always in the distant future, so can never be debunked.

These huge green multinationals, with budgets in the hundreds of millions of dollars, have now systematically infiltrated science, as well as industry and media, with the result that many high-profile climate scientists and the journalists who cover them have become one-sided cheerleaders for alarm, while a hit squad of increasingly vicious bloggers polices the debate to ensure that anybody who steps out of line is punished. They insist on stamping out all mention of the heresy that climate change might not be lethally dangerous.

Today’s climate science, as Ian Plimer points out in his chapter in The Facts, is based on a “pre-ordained conclusion, huge bodies of evidence are ignored and analytical procedures are treated as evidence”. Funds are not available to investigate alternative theories. Those who express even the mildest doubts about dangerous climate change are ostracised, accused of being in the pay of fossil-fuel interests or starved of funds; those who take money from green pressure groups and make wildly exaggerated statements are showered with rewards and treated by the media as neutral.

These scientists and their guardians of the flame repeatedly insist that there are only two ways of thinking about climate change—that it’s real, man-made and dangerous (the right way), or that it’s not happening (the wrong way). But this is a false dichotomy. There is a third possibility: that it’s real, partly man-made and not dangerous. This is the “lukewarmer” school, and I am happy to put myself in this category. Lukewarmers do not think dangerous climate change is impossible; but they think it is unlikely.

But the commentators ignore all these caveats and babble on about warming of “up to” four degrees (or even more), then castigate as a “denier” anybody who says, as I do, the lower end of the scale looks much more likely given the actual data. This is a deliberate tactic. Following what the psychologist Philip Tetlock called the “psychology of taboo”, there has been a systematic and thorough campaign to rule out the middle ground as heretical: not just wrong, but mistaken, immoral and beyond the pale. That’s what the word denier with its deliberate connotations of Holocaust denial is intended to do. For reasons I do not fully understand, journalists have been shamefully happy to go along with this fundamentally religious project.

Politicians love this polarising because it means they can attack a straw man. It’s what they are good at. “Doubt has been eliminated,” said Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway and UN Special Representative on Climate Change, in a speech in 2007: “It is irresponsible, reckless and deeply immoral to question the seriousness of the situation. The time for diagnosis is over. Now it is time to act.” John Kerry says we have no time for a meeting of the flat-earth society. Barack Obama says that 97 per cent of scientists agree that climate change is “real, man-made and dangerous”. That’s just a lie (or a very ignorant remark): as I point out above, there is no consensus that it’s dangerous.

And of course there was the mother of all scandals, the “hockey stick” itself: a graph that purported to show the warming of the last three decades of the twentieth century as unprecedented in a millennium, a graph that the IPCC was so thrilled with that it published it six times in its third assessment report and displayed it behind the IPCC chairman at his press conference. It was a graph that persuaded me to abandon my scepticism (until I found out about its flaws), because I thought Nature magazine would never have published it without checking. And it is a graph that was systematically shown by Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick to be wholly misleading, as McKitrick recounts in glorious detail in his chapter in The Facts.

Its hockey-stick shape depended heavily on one set of data from bristlecone pine trees in the American south-west, enhanced by a statistical approach to over-emphasise some 200 times any hockey-stick shaped graph. Yet bristlecone tree-rings do not, according to those who collected the data, reflect temperature at all. What is more, the scientist behind the original paper, Michael Mann, had known all along that his data depended heavily on these inappropriate trees and a few other series, because when finally prevailed upon to release his data he accidentally included a file called “censored” that proved as much: he had tested the effect of removing the bristlecone pine series and one other, and found that the hockey-stick shape disappeared.

For example, scientists predicted a retreat of Antarctic sea ice but it has expanded instead, and nowadays they are claiming, like any astrologer, that this is because of warming after all.

Excusing failed predictions is a staple of astrology; it’s the way pseudoscientists argue. In science, as Karl Popper long ago insisted, if you make predictions and they fail, you don’t just make excuses and insist you’re even more right than before. The Royal Society once used to promise “never to give their opinion, as a body, upon any subject”. Its very motto is “nullius in verba”: take nobody’s word for it. Now it puts out catechisms of what you must believe in. Surely, the handing down of dogmas is for churches, not science academies. Expertise, authority and leadership should count for nothing in science. The great Thomas Henry Huxley put it this way: “The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, scepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.” Richard Feynman was even pithier: “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:24:49

I like the Drudge Report when it isn’t all about neocon wars.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 11:03:03

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

Maybe that’s why so many people who don’t believe in environmental science do believe that Earth is 6,000 years old.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 06:34:18

Has anyone been noticing more radio ads for loan sites like OneDeck and Avant?


There are probably tons of more lenders like this. The key thing is that their short term rates can be super high. Got cash?

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2015-07-27 09:23:26

I’m seeing and hearing ads for all sorts of small business loans all of a sudden. Vehicle median signs for $30K loans and what not.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:44:44

median signs for $30K loans and what not

Interesting, I have not seen anything like that here.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-07-27 10:53:55

They are worse than payday loan places with the rates I see. How screwed is a company’s business model that they have to resort to the equivalence of going to a pawn shop to get cash for their otherwise growing business? I guess the waters are full of sharks. I mean, if you need VC money, you probably have to negotiate a large percentage of your company’s future stock shares to the VC firm.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 06:43:25

Are commodities holding up better so far today after last week’s rout?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 06:55:46

Six collapsing commodities
Commodity prices from gold to oil and aluminium to iron ore are tumbling – here are the big fallers
The price of gold is falling.
Katie Allen
Monday 27 July 2015 07.17 EDT Last modified on Monday 27 July 2015 08.08 EDT

Just when investors thought it might be time for a summer lull, financial markets have shifted their focus from the eurozone and its Greek woes to tumbling commodity prices.

A combination of factors have knocked gold, crude oil and industrial metals such as copper in recent days. What commodities are on the move and what are they used for?


Primarily used in jewellery and as a financial instrument, such as in the form of bars in central bank vaults, gold is also in demand from electronics companies and for medical uses such as dentistry.

Gold has hit its lowest level since early 2010 amid heavy selling in recent weeks. Traditionally the precious metal has served as a safe haven for investors during periods of uncertainty but investors often move money into other assets once calm returns. Gold also suffers when interest rates show signs of going up, as in the US right now where the central bank appears to be readying for a hike. Because gold does not pay interest it loses its shine compared with other assets that do.

Ten years ago gold was worth around $500 (£320) an ounce, only to soar above $1,800 following the first Greek crisis in 2011.

Brent crude

Refined into petrol and diesel, Brent crude is produced from North Sea oilfields. It is used on financial markets as a benchmark against which a large proportion of internationally traded crude oils are priced.

At just under $55 a barrel, Brent crude has halved from a high of $115 hit a year ago, battered by a combination of rising supply, particularly in the US, and falling demand on the back of China’s economic slowdown and shaky confidence in Europe.

Oil fell further on Monday amid renewed stock market turmoil in China, the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 07:01:45

These 10 States Will Be Hurting the Most After the Commodities Meltdown
by Steve Matthews
July 27, 2015 — 3:00 AM PDT

In the brutal commodities meltdown, all U.S. states are not created equal.

In fact, the impact has been vastly different. The Bloomberg Commodity Index last week reached a 13-year low and has plunged 61 percent since its peak in 2008. That matters a lot in, say, Wyoming, Louisiana, Texas and Nebraska. Not so much in New Jersey or Massachusetts, for example. The map below shows the top 10 states with the greatest exposure as measured by mining and agriculture’s share of the economy in 2014. The darker the color, the more the state’s economy is at risk.

Wyoming is home to most of the top producing coal mines in the U.S. Its mining and agriculture industries generated 36 percent of its economic output in 2014, more than any other state, according to Moody’s Analytics’s calculations using Commerce Department data.

The top nine states on the map got at least 10 percent of their gross state product from energy, mining and agriculture last year: Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and South Dakota. Another six got more than 7 percent, compared to just 3.9 percent for the U.S. as a whole.

New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut have almost none of their economies in those industries, just 0.3 percent or less.

A year ago, Federal Reserve policy makers and many private economists viewed falling oil prices as an economic boom that would boost consumer confidence and spending. While there’s been some evidence of that in restaurant sales for example, it’s been partly offset by the slowdown in mining and farming that has reduced employment in a checkerboard of states.

The commodities collapse has cut monthly employment gains in the U.S. by around 50,000 a month this year, estimates Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“Growth has slowed sharply in the commodities-producing parts of the country, most significantly in the energy sector,” Zandi said. “The very heady rates of growth of recent years have given way to pedestrian growth and in some places no growth at all.”

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 11:10:10

Almost all red states. Interesting. I wonder if they’ll accept the results of a free market or figure out a way to blame Obama.


I guess that answers my question.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 07:53:50

Will the Rout in Junk Bonds and Commodities Crush Stocks, Too?
By Anthony Mirhaydari
July 27, 2015

The Dow dropped into negative territory for the year last week, down more than 500 points from the high set on Monday. The index is back below its 200-day moving average, a key measure of technical strength.

With the relief over the Greek debt deal two weeks ago fully faded — replaced by a nervous acknowledgement a resolution for Athens hasn’t been achieved but only further delayed — investors have grown preoccupied with the flow of disappointing Q2 earnings results from some of the largest and best known publicly traded companies, though there have been some blowouts mixed in.

Also weighing on sentiment has been the ongoing rout in industrial commodities and high-yield or “junk” bonds.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil is back down to $48.11 as the impact of growing inventories and the Iranian nuclear deal keep reverberating. Shale companies are being forced into cash conservation mode, with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) recently suspending its dividend. The JP Morgan Alerian exchange traded note (AMJ), a dividend-focused fund tracking the performance of energy-sector master limited partnerships, sits at the nexus of the energy price/high-yield bond price declines and is down nearly a third from its high last summer.

In a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley warned that on the current trajectory, the oil price slump could become worse than what was suffered in 1986. Commodity analyst Adam Longson sees the oil market as currently oversupplied by about 800,000 barrels per day. Unless OPEC cuts output soon we could be on the cusp of the worst crude selloff in 45 years or more, with all the accompanying negative effects on S&P 500 earnings growth.

The chart below of the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) reveals the turmoil underway in the riskier parts of the fixed income market. The fund has dropped to levels last seen in January.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 08:08:02

WTI = $47.47/bbl and falling

Comment by dwkunkel
2015-07-27 09:13:20

Don’t worry, I have it on good authority that it will be $80/barrel by the end of the year.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 17:08:29

With Yemen and Saudi Arabia in a shooting war that shows no sign of abating, along with an intensifying Sunni-Shia conflict, I don’t expect oil to remain at these prices too much longer.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 17:14:24

Yeah, the price of WTI changes every day.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 08:04:19

Markets | Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:05am EDT
Wall St. falls as Chinese shares, commodities slide
By Tanya Agrawal
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening bell in New York, July 23, 2015.
REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Wall Street began the week in the red on Monday and fell sharply on concerns about China’s slowing growth in the wake of the biggest drop in Shanghai shares in eight years.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell to its lowest level in over five months while the Nasdaq composite was at a four-week low and the S&P 500 touched its lowest in more than two weeks.

Chinese shares tumbled more than 8 percent as an unprecedented government rescue plan to prop up valuations abruptly ran out of steam, raising doubts about the viability of Beijing’s efforts to stave off a deeper crash.

Commodity prices resumed their downward spiral with the broader Thomson Reuters CRB commodities index hitting its lowest in six years and oil prices hitting a four-month low.

Chinese ADRs including Alibaba (BABA.N), Baozun (BZUN.O), Sohu.com (SOHU.O) and JD.com (JD.O) slid.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their largest weekly drops since March on Friday as slowing global growth dragged commodity-related stocks lower.

This really has its roots in nervousness that began in the U.S. at the end of last week,” said Andy Sullivan, a portfolio manager with Swiss investment firm GL Financial Group.

Shanghai is an artificial market at the moment reliant on government support, and they have thrown the kitchen sink at it in recent weeks. The selling just ratcheted up steadily this morning.

At 9:44 a.m. EDT (1344 GMT), the Dow Jones industrial average was down 159.41 points, or 0.91 percent, at 17,409.12, the S&P 500 was down 15.54 points, or 0.75 percent, at 2,064.11 and the Nasdaq composite was down 48.47 points, or 0.95 percent, at 5,040.16.

Apple’s (AAPL.O) 1.3 percent fall weighed the most on the S&P and the Nasdaq while the Dow was dragged down by Goldman Sachs’ (GS.N) 1.7 percent drop.

Nine of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors were lower with the energy index’s percent fall leading the decliners.

Earnings season continues with big oil, social media stocks and pharma companies scheduled to report this week.

Second-quarter S&P 500 earnings have been mixed, with 74 percent of companies beating analysts’ profit expectations but just 52 percent surpassing revenue expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Adding to the concerns regarding lukewarm earnings, the S&P 500 is relatively expensive, trading at 16.9 times forward 12 months’ earnings, above the 10-year median of 14.7 times, according to StarMine data with only a handful of stocks fuelling recent highs.

Investors are also keeping a sharp eye on economic data ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, the last before September, which still looms as the first possibility for an interest rate increase.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 11:16:20

“After pledging a whopping 10% of China’s GDP, or just about $1 trillion, to its various (at last check over 40) discrete measures to prop up its collapsing market, among which such threats as arresting shorters of stock and “malicious sellers”, China has finally reverted to what the communist regime does best to preserve “order” - implement witch hunts in which the population rats out any criminals who dare to go against the protocols of the communist party. In this case, the targets are “malicious sellers” with the regulator adding that those found guilty of shorting will be “dealt with severely.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:44:16

Rents surging, home ownership rates plunging. How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica? Blackstone sure loves it.


Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 08:29:09

In what ways did the Federal Government support Blackstone?

Funny how housing prices have skyrocketed in many places and how rents have skyrocketed in many places.

Despite flat wages.
Despite massive increases in healthcare costs (ObamaCare).

What’s government’s role in this again? What is its culpability?

Notice how its always the banks that are at fault? Why isn’t the government being held accountable? Because it is squeaky clean?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 06:49:45

Bagholders who bought Chinese EFTs getting reamed. I can hear ABQ Dan’s dolphin-like keening reverberating around the Southwest US.


Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 07:09:50

ABQDan’s posting volume shut down in synch with the Chinese stock market. Kind of makes you wonder if he was secretly talking his book here, notwithstanding anything to the contrary he may have said.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 07:21:23

Nope, kind of thinking he was a True Believer who finally saw right through Jim Jones as the lethal Kool-Aid he drank started causing his central nervous system to shut down.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-07-27 10:38:51

I am worried about ABQ - I recall that he said he was out of the box for a bit doing business travel - but then he has really been silent way too long -
Calling ABQ - You ok?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:00:45

“I am worried about ABQ”
ABQ’s mom, 1965

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:14:40

ABQ may not have Wi-Fi in the cardboard box he now calls home.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:32:33
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Comment by tresho
2015-07-27 17:12:17

Calling ABQ - You ok?
Man arrested for using construction vehicle to steal ATM in Albuquerque
Covering his margin calls?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 11:30:09

Right now, Mr. Daniel Crowman is frantically executing sell orders while shit shoots from his AssHat.

….. and not a one are going through. :mrgreen:


Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-07-27 14:48:43

Kind of makes you wonder if his client stopped paying.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 07:18:00

In defense - the Chinese stock market is still green for the year and Chinese ETFs are just about break even for the year.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 07:51:28

Only 8.5% less green today than it was on Friday…and an 8.5% loss erases more than 17% of a 100%+ one-year gain (just do the math if you don’t believe me).

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 08:18:26

I am not invested in China nor do I intend to be invest in China in the near future.

I am just looking at the charts.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 08:11:16

The Tell
What China watchers are saying about Shanghai’s ugly selloff

Published: July 27, 2015 7:32 a.m. ET
AFP/Getty Images
A stock investor in China’s Anhui province gestures as he checks share prices in this file photo.
By Victor Reklaitis
Markets writer

While you were sleeping, a major Chinese stock benchmark endured a beatdown not seen in more than eight years.

The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP, -8.48%) closed 8.5% lower for its biggest one-day percentage tumble since February 2007, as investors worried about a slowdown in government buying and disappointing industrial data. In other words, Monday was the roughest day for Shanghai stocks since before the global financial crisis hit.

The index now stands just 6% above its July 8 closing low, as shown in the chart below. That’s after briefly trading on Friday as much as 19% above that four-month low. The Shanghai Composite is also 28% below its multiyear closing high on June 12, which was then followed by a multiweek selloff.

Comment by joe smith
2015-07-27 08:29:28

“all part of the master plan,”
says AQ Dan.

Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 08:36:01

Hey Lib

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 20:14:39

This interminable crash is getting kind of boring to witness, especially in the absence of AlbqDan’s humorous protestations that there is no cause for panic.

Bonds | Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:14pm EDT
Related: Stocks, Currencies, Bonds, Markets
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks hit 3-week lows as China gloom spreads

* Dollar on back foot versus safe-haven yen

* Bond appeal grows amid stock market rout

* Global growth woes send copper to 6-year lows

By Saikat Chatterjee

HONG KONG, July 28 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to three-week lows on Tuesday as a deepening rout in Chinese stocks erased risk appetite - sending investors flocking to safe-haven instruments such as government bonds and the Japanese yen.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.8 percent in early deals, its lowest level since July 9 as mainland Chinese indexes opened 2 - 5 percent lower.

Volatility is the enemy of investor appetite,” said the head of index trading at a U.S. fund. “Any sign of government support to prop up the market will be used by investors to exit the market completely rather than add fresh positions.”

Since hitting a peak in early June, Chinese shares have gone through a roller-coaster ride with main China indexes falling by a third in less than a month before rebounding by a quarter, only to stage its biggest one-day fall since 2007.

While broader Asian markets have been initially resilient to the fireworks in Chinese stocks, they have started to move more closely in step with the mainland over recent days in the absence of fresh triggers elsewhere.

Correlations between the MSCI gauge for regional stocks and the Shanghai index has risen to 0.5 - its strongest in nearly a year - indicating the market rout is starting to have a broader regional impact.

Tokyo’s Nikkei fell more than 1 percent, with a strong yen accelerating the decline. Australian shares fell 0.9 percent and South Korea’s Kospi shed 1 percent.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 08:13:27

Need to Know
China and the dollar may be about to collide
Published: July 27, 2015 8:48 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the market’s open
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
AFP/Getty Images

Who wants a boring Monday, anyway? Chinese shares saw the biggest daily fall since 2007 overnight, partly on fears that officials may be trying to pull back on supporting the market. And that means things got ugly all over again — unless you’re a gold bug. The metal’s closing in on $1,100 an ounce.

Check out our chart of the day, which offers one theory why sellers aren’t yet done with Shanghai.

China’s worries have spread to oil, which is adding to last week’s 5% drop. With commodity prices lower, some say it looks less worrying on the inflation front, reducing the chances of a near-term Fed hike. The CME Group’s FedWatch finds a 51.3% implied probability of a 25 basis-point Fed hike in September. For October, that same 25-basis-point expectation is around 43.8%.

We may or may not know more when the Fed meets this week. But IG’s Chris Weston says don’t expect a “smoking gun” that provides clear evidence the Fed will hike in September. That’s something that could present another headache for dollar bulls, with the currency under pressure this morning.

That brings us to our call of the day, a contrarian stance that rides against the everything-is-going to-be-A-OK-with-the-U.S.-economy camp — chiefly, those betting against the dollar.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 08:15:54

Bond Report
Treasurys draw safety bid as China stocks tank
Published: July 27, 2015 10:51 a.m. ET
Shanghai’s meltdown dragged global stocks down on Monday. But that was good news for Treasury investors.
By Ellie Ismailidou
Markets reporter

Treasury prices rose Monday, weighing on yields, as investors sought safe assets during a global stock selloff led by a sharp decline in Chinese markets.

A mixed U.S. durable goods report, which showed that orders increased but overall business investment remained soft, added to the buying momentum in Treasurys pushing yields further down.

Monday’s fall came after Treasury yields recorded their largest two-week decline in four months, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that starts Tuesday, which could determine whether the data-dependent Fed is closer to the first interest-rate increase in nearly a decade.

Read: MarketWatch’s Fed meeting preview

Yields could fall even further, as the market is now clearly in a “bullish phase,” benefiting from the selloff in commodities and the continuing Chinese stock meltdown, Tom di Galoma, head of rates and credit trading at ED & F Man Capital Markets, said in a note.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury (TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.67%) fell 5.7 basis point to 2.216%, according to Tradeweb. The yield on the two-year note (TMUBMUSD02Y, -4.17%) declined 2.4 basis points to 0.658% and the yield on the 30-year bond (TMUBMUSD30Y, -0.89%) shaved off 4.8 basis points to 2.923%.

Treasury yields fall as prices rise and vice versa.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 08:27:39

Front page story in Sunday KC Star…….seems that the farmers have sucked the Kansas portions of the Ogalalah Aquifer dry.


Iowa and Nebraska grow corn for a reason. They get a lot more rain. There’s only one reason to grow corn in Western Kansas. Because you don’t want to pay the freight to haul corn to your feedlots in Western Kansas

But you know, “Farmers love the land”, “free enterprise” “small business”, yada, yada.

So what is the Brownback/Republican/Government is bad-until we-have- things-so-effed-up-it’s-beyond-redemption Answer?

-Voluntary restrictions on water usage. Not intended to “save” the aquifer, but to suck it dry less quickly,


-Lobbying the Federal Government and the State of Kansas to build a 480 mile aqueduct (while lifting this water 2000 feet plus), to draw on Missouri River water.

All for the children, of course. So the farmer’s kids can inherit viable (subsidized by the rest of us) farmland.

“The difference between Western Kansas and the Sahara? There aren’t any idiots trying to grow crops in the Sahara.”
(from Ken Burns - “The Dust Bowl”)

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-07-27 08:36:00

My grandmother on my Dad’s side grew up in west Texas. She told me that when she was a little girl, she saw Indians on ponies gathering water that bubbled up on the surface from this aquifer. I read once that it takes 10,000 years for the water to make its way to west Texas.

Comment by tresho
2015-07-27 17:13:55

I read once that it takes 10,000 years for the water to make its way to west Texas.
Ben, got any old family recipes for pickled tumbleweed?

Comment by joe smith
2015-07-27 08:41:59

Why do you hate the invisible hand of the free market?????!!1

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 09:51:45

Because there is reality, which has nothing to do with fantasies like candy-crapping unicorns and “free-markets”.

One man’s “wasteful subsidy/transfer payment” is another man’s profit.

Business people have mastered the art of getting under the radar government subsidies (usually thru the tax code), while bitching about “47%ers”

Comment by hllnwlz
2015-07-28 22:09:02

FWIW, the free market would tell these farmers to go eff themselves. The government taking money from one group to subsidize the farmers is anathema to capitalism. (I like horse, so I hope I’m not beating a dead one.)

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Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:56:20

Lobbying the Federal Government and the State of Kansas to build a 480 mile aqueduct (while lifting this water 2000 feet plus), to draw on Missouri River water.

You know, we here in California have a 500-mile aqueduct that played a vital role in California’s growth and prosperity over the years. For every dollar invested in that aqueduct it has repaid itself many time over. It’s a good thing it was built during a time when we had the foresight and courage to take on big projects.

In today’s poisonous Congress, you’ll never get funding to build public works projects like this because conservatives don’t believe in infrastructure. It doesn’t matter if a Kansas aqueduct would pay for itself 10x over, they still wouldn’t fund it because omigosh it would increase spending.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 09:20:23

Nice progressive lie. And we will turn into Somalia overnight if one inefficient federal budget is cut by as little as 1%.

The fact very LITTLE of the federal budget goes toward infrastructure.

The VAST majority of the budget goes to buy votes with entitlements.

The liberal/progressive dream - Plenty of money for illegals. None for infrastructure.

In today’s poisonous Congress, you’ll never get funding to build public works projects like this because conservatives don’t believe in infrastructure.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 09:56:20

You are just jealous because nobody wants to buy your vote.

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Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:27:26

The VAST majority of the budget goes to buy votes with entitlements.

I guess it’s not working too well. The biggest entitlements are Social Security and Medicare.

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Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 11:18:44

Big oil gets $600k pr day in subsidies.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 09:27:44

I’ve gotta go “Republican” here…….

Why should the rest of us buy an aqueduct to pay for other people’s stupid mistakes?

Western Kansas water consumption per capita = 298gals/day
In Eastern Kansas? 98 gallons/day.

According to the article, it will take 6000 years (assuming the most optimistic replenishment rates) to refill the Ogalala.

People were raising the red flag on this back in the early 90s, including creating a “buffalo commons” and returning much of the area to high plains grassland. Or if they had stuck with raising the drought tolerant wheat the Ukrainian Mennonites brought over with them.

Of course, any one suggesting that someone might think about managing the resource better/more efficiently was accused of being a Commie/socialist/Un-American/Central Planning panty-wearing tree-hugger.

So now, they grow corn in Western Kansas, to sell to the feedlots who don’t want to pay the transportation costs of hauling in corn from Nebraska and Iowa. Or worse, to make ethanol.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-07-27 09:53:00

So now, they grow corn in Western Kansas, to sell to the feedlots who don’t want to pay the transportation costs of hauling in corn from Nebraska and Iowa. Or worse, to make ethanol.

Something tells me that is going to end very soon.

And yes, I remember the warnings that this was going to happen, and how those warnings were ignored. The Future Is Now.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:04:43

It looks like some of the Ogalala may be saved, because:

-Commodity prices are falling

-Cost of electricity to run the pumps is rising

-Drilling newer/deeper wells costs money that isn’t there

But as usual, these die-hard “get government off my back” Republicans will lobby the state and Federal government for subsidies/government intervention of some kind, to “fix” all of the above.

Because, you know, their way of life/fantasy is worth preserving

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 10:19:53

Yeah, and those same Republicans get all googly-eyed over building a pipeline to move Canadian oil over US soil… but helping American farmers, not so much

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:48:48

Here’s the -fixer’s Commie “If I was Stalin” Central Plan:

-Grow crops that need a lot of water in areas that have a lot of water/rainfall.

-Grow crops that don’t need a lot of water in areas that don’t get a lot of rain.

-Start working toward creating the “Buffalo Commons”. Buffalo meat is a lot healthier for you anyway.

-Stop subsidizing water consumption (with government funded infrastructure) in arid locations.

See? No aquaduct needed.

Here is what I’ve learned about private equity companies. The won’t fund ANY project, no matter how worthwhile, unless there is a 8-10% ROI from the get-go. (Why risk losing your money on dubious projects like infrastructure and factories, when you get 4-6% guaranteed return on Wall Street funny money, with all risk transferred to the Federal Government?)

Which is why government ends up doing all of the break even and money losing projects.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 11:37:44

“Stop subsidizing water consumption (with government funded infrastructure) in arid locations

LMAO! While I agree with everything you said, you’re not stating much about farmers in California. Can you imagine what a Californian would say to remove irrigated water from the picture?

Two-thirds of the residents would have to leave.

Perhaps California should have no more than 10 million people living there. It doesn’t have the resources to support more.

Buffalo in the western half of Kansas ain’t a bad idea. Buffalo (or similar) in much of California might not be a bad idea, either.

Perhaps we can start a mass migration out of California, and into - say - Mississippi.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:57:03

gotta give them water, we have the soil.

Eaten a salad recently? Odds are the lettuce, carrots, and celery came from California. Have a soft spot for stone fruit? California produces 84 percent of the country’s fresh peaches and 94 percent of the country’s fresh plums. It produces 99 percent of the artichokes grown in the United States, and 94 percent of the broccoli. As spring begins to creep in, almost half of asparagus will come from California.

The U.S. government spent almost $84.5 billion dollars subsidizing corn between 1995 and 2012, and a good portion of corn crops does not make it to a plate, instead used as ethanol or feed for livestock.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-07-27 15:19:50

Apparently you’ve not traveled much.

Ever driven through Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio during the summer? What will you see there? Massive operations that make it the breadbasket of the world. It’s mindboggling.

Been to Florida’s citrus groves?

How about to Alaska, where much lettuce and broccoli are grown?

Or to Idaho and Wisconsin for potatoes?

To the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas for wheat?

Or Georgia and South Carolina for peaches, pecans and peanuts?

To the Gulf Coast states for cotton?

Or to Michigan for cherries and blueberries?

To New England for maple syrup?

The USA can survive easily without California’s ag fields.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-28 10:55:08

your wrong, google it.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-28 12:57:33

Let California dry up and fall off. The world will be a better place without the welfare case.

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 10:05:01

Why should the rest of us buy an aqueduct to pay for other people’s stupid mistakes?

The point is not to look at the past, but to look at the future with a cost/benefit analysis. If the aqueduct will only allow low-value crops (wheat) or subsidized crops (ethanol corn) to be grown, then the aqueduct is not a good value proposition. If, OTOH, an aqueduct would allow high-value food crops then not only might it be a cost-beneficial project, it could pay off it terms of national food security as well.

We should learn from our experience with oil and not get ourselves in a position where we are dependent on imported food for our food supply.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:21:48

“….look at the future…..”

Aha! Another central planning commie……. :)

What is this “pay-off” of which you speak, kemo sabe?

And (most important), who is getting it?

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:29:17

Just playing “Devil’s Advocate”. :)

What you say would be considered “Sensible Government”.

But like “free markets”, it seems like most “sensible government” falls in the Fantasy/Candy crapping unicorn column.

Comment by tresho
2015-07-27 17:21:12

What is this “pay-off” of which you speak, kemo sabe?
Kemo Sabe think Tonto not know his name means “fool” in Spanish

Comment by beetlejuice
2015-07-27 17:22:26

sensible government = moar government = government for rich.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-07-27 10:42:00

Makes me wonder if the Great Lakes compact will be rescinded given this information.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 11:09:04

The amazing amount of water in the great lakes is one of the primary reasons that Detriot will make a comeback once the liberals\ progressives who ran the place into the ground are in jail and public unions are made illegal.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 14:36:47

I dont think any of the CEO’s of GM have ever been liberal.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 11:11:21

The farmers want the aquaduct to get “excess” Missouri River water.

Missouri’s governor has weighed in……..”harebrained” was the word he used, I think.

By the time they get the lawsuits by cities/states downstream of the proposed aquaduct sorted out, it will be irrelevent.

For starters, any aquaduct that starts on the Kansas side of the Missouri River will draw water away from the Kansas City Metro.
So you are going to have a helluva fight with the Wyandotte, Leavenworth and Johnson County reps from the get-go.

Plus all of the NIMBYs for 480 miles.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 11:41:22

Can’t they just take the money they would have used to build the aqueduct to pay the farmers not to grow anything on their land, thus guaranteeing votes for red state politicians? We already spend billions and billions to pay farmers to do nothing anyway. And everyone knows how conservative rural Americans hate big government. More handouts for the FSA to build a permanent republican majority will solve everything.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:06:57

Western Kansas

I was on a golf course in far Eastern Kansas yesterday and will be later today. A huge storm cell formed and was coming right at me. I went home. Now Kansas has no mountains or ocean but they skies are the most beautiful and dramatic one can imagine. Sometimes it’s like a camera filter’s been put on. It’s too damned hot today but just sayin’.

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 08:30:56

Note to Joshua Tree developer: I have a feature request. I’d like to have an Ignore List based on content instead of by poster. For example:

Ignore posts which contain “http://www.zerohedge.com”
Ignore posts which contain “http://www.wnd.com”
Ignore posts which contain “drill rig count”

I’m not interested in blacklisting any posters here, but it would be useful for me to filter out content that I’m not interested in based on key phrases. So in the above example it would filter out any posting that links to Zero Hedge or World Net Daily, two sites I won’t read. And it would filter out any post that talks about the number of active oil rigs, something I’m not interested in. Thanks.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 09:25:07

“drill rig count”

Maybe no need for this one, as AlbqDan hasn’t been seen around here for many days?

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 10:07:17

Right, those are just examples of what you could put in your filter list if you wanted to.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 09:30:53

Aw, come on……..no Zero Hedge? :)

Comment by WPA
2015-07-27 10:13:00

Nah, I don’t need to read the same old “sky is falling” stuff from an anonymous blogger. Why read it when it’s all so predictable: blah blah markets are gonna crash any day now. And, as we say here on HBB, anonymous bloggers are not real journalists.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:30:31

At least they are consistent.

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Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 10:38:13

The big problem is that they never say when the sky will fall. So, in the eyes of some people, they’re not wrong.

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Comment by Puggs
2015-07-27 10:46:57

Tyler should just rename it “Zero Predictability”

I enjoy reading all the pending doom but there are currently too many doorstops preventing an all out meltdown, yet.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-07-27 11:06:04

Shiller called a US housing bubble in 2001. Notice nobody calls him a doom and gloomer. Who can say on timing? I started a foreclosure blog before there were very many. I educated myself, started a foreclosure related business. In a couple of years I was working 7 days a week preserving houses and hauling FB junk to the dump.

I never believed housing had fully corrected, so I kept this blog going. Around 2011, I started to find articles about love letters to sellers, Vancouver condos selling out pre-construction in 3 hours, with the inevitable Chinese investors. Some said, there’s no bubble. I said, it sure looks like one to me. Now we’ve got people paying a million over asking in California. Still no bubble? It’s spread to Iowa and Indiana and Montana, land prices doubling, tripling. Tens of thousands of Miami condos in the works at prices way above 2006. Still no bubble? One of the completed towers just turned up 95% for rent or sale.

I don’t want bad things to happen to this economy. I have family members who will get burned if I am right. Some people reading this too. But what’s going to happen doesn’t depend on what I think or say. There’s this; the answer to a bubble fueled by money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates, should not have been more money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates.

Lower house prices are the resolution to a housing bubble.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 11:19:36

AKA, the “When life hands out lemons, make lemonade” plan. :)

I’m convinced that the current, even bigger bubble isn’t going to turn out any better than the last one. And have tried to plan accordingly.

The problem is figuring out who/where is going to just get slightly screwed over, and who is going to get hammered. Especially when the water issue starts getting thrown in the mix.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 12:03:48

“There’s this; the answer to a bubble fueled by money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates, should not have been more money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates.”

“Lower house prices are the resolution to a housing bubble.”

Yes and yes.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 12:00:43

Even if Zero Hedge does have a “the sky is falling” quality to it, it still includes a lot of topics not covered by the MSM. And just because the sky hasn’t fallen yet doesn’t mean it won’t.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:02:57

Any site that annoys WPA so intensely has great merit in my eyes. In fact, I may start a blog for that express purpose. There can be no higher calling in life than to rampage through his liberal la-la land, turning his sacred cows into hamburger.

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Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-07-27 19:30:50



Stocks about to keeeeraaaaaassh in USA

Precious metals will reverse

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 10:21:26

This sort of thing just simply doesn’t happen in America.


Comment by X-GSfixr
2015-07-27 10:33:07

Not yet, anyway.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:14:46

What a mom.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 10:53:35

How do illegals get all this free stuff, welfare and huge tax breaks if they don’t have a social security number? I have never heard of a fed program that did not ask for your SS#.

Comment by 2banana
2015-07-27 11:12:26

They vote primarily for one party.

That is all you need to know.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:10:48

ya got nothing , again…. just fear and misinformation from talk radio that you have blind faith in.

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-07-27 11:41:21

They use SS #s that belong to other people. Often dead ppl.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:09:21

Not that easy, dead people are recorded as dead. Other people have other names. Try getting a 401k with a fake SS or anything else for that matter.

Ignorance is bliss.

Comment by Dman
2015-07-27 12:21:09

What kind of huge tax breaks do illegals get?

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 13:43:12

“What kind of huge tax breaks do illegals get?”

this is what the Talk radio/GOP sheeple claim. But when questioned, they scurry back in their hole.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 11:26:01

Cratering oil….. cratering asian stock markets… cratering housing prices in the US. Falling prices are positive economic news for all of us.


Comment by Goon
2015-07-27 12:46:38

Pass the adult diapers, LOLZ

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:17:10

“Falling prices are positive economic news for all of us.”
New England street bum, 2015

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 15:18:31

Worthless housing Lola. Worthless worthless housing.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-07-27 11:36:51

And now BREAKING NEWS from the liberal paradise known as Chiraq!!
Weekend shooting toll in Chicago: 7 dead, 35 wounded
Peter Nickeas and Megan Crepeau
Three teens and four others were killed across Chicago between Friday afternoon and Monday morning and 35 others survived gunshot wounds during the same period.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:12:01

Back to half-mast, might as well leave the flags there, to keep Hannity happy.

Comment by drumminj
2015-07-27 12:41:03

at some point this problem should self-correct, no?

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2015-07-27 11:39:22

Clown car.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 11:42:28

Crater cab.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 11:41:02

Lower prices for you and me is good for our economy.

“Six Collapsing Commodities”



Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:15:17

I know not everyone on here is struggling and poor. At what level do you jump in on stocks buying the dip? I have a few health care funds I have been eye-balling.
DOW 16500?
S&P 1700?

lower? Or do we all get to scared to “catch the falling knife” and stay on the sidelines…..again…. As a renter, I need to put my savings somewhere.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 12:27:56

It could be worse. You could have no money and deep in debt on a depreciating house as prices fall.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 13:20:58

You could have no money and deep in debt on a depreciating house as prices fall.

Or you could own a house outright and have it “pay” you a few grand every month. And when house prices “fall” it will still do the same thing every month. But there is an opportunity cost. You won’t have as much money to invest in the Chinese stock market.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 13:58:57

Houses are a loss Lola.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 14:16:47

Houses are a loss Lola.

Right. In not having to pay rent I’m gonna lose about 3K August first. And about 3K September 1st too. How’s that for a loss angry loser fool?

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 14:53:40

comrade, you keep bragging about your big paid off house and your business(es)? aren’t you ashamed about how much of the world’s wealth you’re hogging? you have way beyond your fair share. what about those that have less than you?

i think we should take your house and business. sell them off for the greater good. pool the money with others so we can take care of everyone. we’ll give each of you enough each month to get by. you wouldn’t want to get more than you need, right?

and don’t worry, we’ll do it fair and square by bringing it to a vote. wanna bet that we won’t get the votes? nothing you can say comrade. it’s what the people wanted. the majority wins again.

think of others besides yourself comrade. why should you get to own a house when so many others don’t have one? what makes you so special?

and we don’t want to hear about how hard you worked for it. it doesn’t matter because you cheated in order to get it. you couldn’t have gotten it without cheating. it just isn’t possible.

you’re one of those limousine liberal hypocrites who talks a good game from your unearned station in life. all your life you’ve been taking advantage of people who have less than you. there’s no other way to get ahead other than by cheating or outright stealing. the poor see what you’re doing. why do you hate the poor so much? what did they ever do to you that you’d flaunt your wealth and good fortune in front of them?

time for you to give up your house, business and bank accounts and be more caring.

maybe we can work a deal where you can keep your house and maybe your business. but we need to tax you at 75% at least, to help people in need.

you’ve had so much for so long.. it’s your time to contribute.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 15:18:37

you’re one of those limousine liberal hypocrites

Stop it. You almost made me wreck my golf cart!

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 15:55:39

so you really don’t care about the poor. all you care about is your next golf game, like your puppet prez.

if you cared, or at least were less of a hypocrite, you’d gladly fork over your fair share.

again comrade, why do you hate the poor?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 16:15:36

you’d gladly fork over your fair share….why do you hate the poor?

Total BS. I’ll tip my caddy.

(It’s a write off.)

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 16:30:27

all the rich tip their caddies. it’s nothing to them.

you’re just one of the callous rich that hate the poor. you do nothing for them but talk. they see through your BS.

you’re all talk comrade. you’ll never do anything to help the poor and they know it. one day they’ll take it from you by force. and if anyone deserves to have it taken from them, it’s an exploiting hypocrite like you.

all you have is bs and lies. no honesty and no character.

you’re worthless in every meaning of the word.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 16:31:51

It’s ok to be poor Lola but why all the anger?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 16:39:35

but why all the anger?

Because I double double-bogeyed the 5th and forgot to wear sunscreen.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 16:42:39

….you’re just one of the callous rich, you do nothing for them..
you’re all talk….you’ll never do anything …
all you have is bs and lies… no honesty and no character.
you’re worthless in every meaning of the word.

Write soon,

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 16:58:59

I’d offer you a cup of rage Lola but you’re already there.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 17:11:21

I’d offer you a cup of rage Lola but you’re already there.

Wrong answer.

Unlike mine, your Emotional IQ is very low. You have lousy human perception. I’ve been laughing posting today. Especially with you and little tj. Youz be funny!

Emotional intelligence definition, skill in perceiving, understanding, and managing emotions and feelings.

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 17:13:27

on top of being a lying hypocrite, you’re childish. you can’t make an adult argument with me, so you resort to childishness.

you refuse to debate me. you brag about your big house. the most you can do in an argument is copy it and return it. you want to steal from some and pretend to give to others, like hillary does. like all good socialists do. you’re evil comrade. the thing is, i think you even see it yourself. you just don’t care. you want to pretend to be ‘good’ so others will think you are. it’s self aggrandizement. you want to look bigger and better than you are.

but there are some people you can’t fool.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 17:22:24

you’re evil comrade…lying hypocrite, like hillary, you’re childish….you want to steal

Does this mean no dinner and a movie Friday night??

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 17:26:37

Truly funny, our resident bubblehead idiot in Brazil thinks his house is paying him princely sums. Truth is the Brazilian Peso is dropping like a stone.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 17:31:12

thinks his house is paying him princely sums

Every month. “Free rent” How is it not paying me? You’re just jealous. ;)

(What’s a Brazilian Peso?)

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 17:37:14

true, plus the bigger his house is, the more he loses on it over time. yet he wants to brag on it. if i were him, i’d be trying to keep it a secret to at least not show the idiocy of it.

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 17:47:22

Every month. “Free rent” How is it not paying me?

1. the money you used to pay it off could have been invested to get a good return.

2. you have to pay taxes on it. a constant drain.

3. it depreciates over time unless you’re in a bubble mania and then when the bubble pops if you still own it and want to sell you’re worse off than when the bubble began.

4. maintenance and repairs. another constant drain.

but don’t worry. your house is making you zillions.

and i’m not even against owning a house. i’m against fooling one’s self into thinking it’s a money making investment. but you go ahead and keep believing your fairy tale. it fits you perfectly.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 17:58:38

i’d be trying to keep it a secret to at least not show the idiocy of it.

I know tj. Having a paid-off house is the exact definition of idiocy. It’s just English.

noun: idiocy; plural noun: idiocies

extremely stupid behavior.
“the idiocy of decimating rain forests”
synonyms: stupidity, folly, foolishness, foolhardiness, ignorance; More
madness, insanity, lunacy, nonsense;
silliness, brainlessness, thoughtlessness, senselessness, irresponsibility, imprudence, ineptitude, inanity, absurdity, ludicrousness, fatuousness;
“a unique combination of arrogance, complacency, and plain idiocy”
antonyms: sense

early 16th century (originally denoting low intelligence): from idiot, probably on the pattern of pairs such as lunatic, lunacy .

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 18:02:01

“What’s a Brazilian Peso?

It’s what you’ve Real’y got.

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 18:07:32

as i said above comrade (if you can read), the idiocy isn’t in owning a house, it’s believing that it’s a money making investment. owning a home is a liability no matter how you slice it or how much you think you’re saving in rent.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-07-27 18:09:22

Idiot is Latin. It means not knowing.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 18:17:20

it’s believing that it’s a money making investment.

Owning a home outright saves me thousands of dollars every month.

There is no way that fact can be contorted or skewed because of your crackpot “theories”.

No “but if’s” and “you could have’s” can change the fact of:

Owning a home outright saves me thousands of dollars every month.

You just can’t do it. Sorry. Next?

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 18:42:54

no it doesn’t. you’re not counting the money you used to pay it off.

the money you’re ’saving’ could be money you’re making instead. but you’ll never get it. please, keep investing in houses and thinking you’re coming out ahead. you deserve what you’re getting.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 18:43:41

You don’t own anything but an alley refrigerator box Lola.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-07-27 18:48:18

no it doesn’t

Yes it does.

you’re not counting the money you used to pay it off.

Yes I am.

the money you’re ’saving’ could be money

Shoulda, coulda, woulda

but you’ll never get it.

you don’t get it

thinking you’re coming out ahead.

Not thinking, but knowing.

you deserve what you’re getting.

tens and tens of thousands every year.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 19:39:54

Is your refrigerator box big enough for your make up station?

Comment by tj
2015-07-27 19:47:25

keep believing your fairy tale comrade.

you’re too stupid to know how much further ahead you could be.

why don’t you ask an investment broker or better yet read a good book on investing to find out if a house is an investment or a liability? you won’t because you’re caught in your own aggrandizement. you believe in your delusions. they’re real to you because reality hasn’t hit you yet. it will.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 13:21:56

I like using the Anaheim Chile for my relleno.

Comment by taxpers
2015-07-27 17:12:38

Vix 25+

Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-07-27 19:42:31

50% of peak.

Comment by puggs
2015-07-27 21:43:27

I say wait and see what happens in Sept/Oct. Keep yer powder dry for some super deals both in stocks and hard assets.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 12:34:08

Taxpayers currently subsidize the oil industry by as much as $4.8 billion a year, with about half of that going to the big five oil companies—ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips.

Stepping on Big Oil’s toes has always been risky, but in the post-Citizens United era, oil and gas executives can pour unlimited money (sometimes anonymously) into races. In 2012, Chevron gave $2.5 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super-PAC devoted to expanding the Republican majority in the House. And oil-backed dark-money groups like the American Petroleum Institute, the American Energy Alliance, and the Chamber of Commerce spent tens of millions on ads attacking President Obama’s energy policies.

Comment by palmetto
2015-07-27 12:42:55

Posted this up above, but also posting this here, so everyone knows that Trump is starting to weasel on the subject of immigration.


From here, you may expect him to drop like a rock, just like Romney did. He will never recover from this. He had my vote, not now. Looks like the Republican consultants got to him. Sigh. Pity he had to lose all that business just to become a usual weasel.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 13:51:17

Rand Paul lost my vote with his Planned Parented short term thinking.

Bernie 2016?

Comment by beetlejuice
2015-07-27 17:11:20

Why do you even pretend? Either you are a hillary supporter or a dem for jeb? No more lies.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 17:38:29

Why do you even pretend?

That’s a good question. Why would you think that Califoh20 would bother to pretend to a bunch of strangers what his preferences are?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 17:57:17

Why are you?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 18:05:37

What are talking about? I almost never state my preferences on this blog. I might do it once or twice a year. It doesn’t make for an interesting discussion to simply state one’s preferences.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 18:13:24

Prices are falling. That’s positively bullish and good for the economy.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 20:17:29

Not for people deep in debt they used to finance overpriced assets like houses.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 20:23:43

Too bad, so sad, for people who recently went deeply into debt to climb on the property latter in case these asset price declines keep going and going and going. Only those with freely allocatable cash will be able to partake of upcoming asset fire sales.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 20:23:47

That’s what happens when you blindly pay 250% premiums(or 2x construction costs) for a depreciating asset like a house.

Comment by Califoh20
2015-07-27 13:20:07
Comment by phony scandals
2015-07-27 15:47:55

Region IV

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 16:52:52

Hmm, wonder what this is all about? Kind of expensive holding drills on this scale unless you really anticipate going into wartime/contingency mode.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 17:19:14

The Shanghai Freight Index, unlike China’s official economic stats, doesn’t lie. And it tells an ugly tale.


Comment by MightyMike
2015-07-27 17:32:08

But the all-important Baltic Dry Index has doubled in the past 5 months. Things are looking up!

Comment by MightyMike
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-07-27 17:52:57

‘BDIY rates have jumped 115% since February. They’re still 90% below the all-time high, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless. The trick is figuring out what drives these moves because research on the sector is minimal. As far as anyone can tell, China is again behind this rally, this time importing corn. China’s corn imports in June were up nearly 30-fold from a year ago to 872,919 metric tons. In the first half this year, China imported 2.65 million tons, almost double the volume this time last year.’

‘If it sustains this pace of buying, Beijing is on track to post its biggest annual corn import ever. For a time, around 2010, it looked like China was poised to become the world’s biggest importer of corn, as annual imports were rising by quadruple digits. Suddenly imports slowed around 2012, but it’s back to gobbling up grain from all over. The bulk of the massive increase in China’s imports came not from the US, but from Ukraine. Imports from the eastern European country in the first half this year were up 852%, or about eight-fold, from a year ago.’

‘Imports of property-related commodities might be slowing but Beijing can’t let its population go hungry. This is likely an attempt to refill Chinese grain warehouses, meaning the BDIY rally might not be sustainable.’


This would explain the contradiction.

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Comment by azdude
2015-07-27 17:55:55

Does dennis gartman change his mind every week about stocks?

A week ago he said you would have to be crazy to short the market. Now today he says he is bearish.

Is this guy a clown or what?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 18:42:39

Shanghai Composite plunging like a Chinese bagholder from a high-rise apartment bought on margin.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 18:45:01

The Great Commodity Plunge continues as deflation rears its not-so-ugly head. How long before Yellen panics and hits Ctrl-P?


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 20:01:52

More promising news. The tide is going out now. Falling prices are spreading which is good for your economy.

“Chinese Shares Tumble Again”


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 20:12:05

Falling oil prices are good for you and me.

“Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Declines as Oil Prices Fall”


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-07-27 20:13:44

Housing prices are falling too. Even in California. This is good.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 20:26:04

It must be nice to be an oligarch and have your lobbyist stooges (many former “public servants”) drafting the tax code for your puppets in Congress and the Senate to sign off on.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-07-27 20:29:10

Generous Jeb wants your tax dollars to bail out Puerto Rico (and every other deadbeat state, municipality, financial firm, etc.)


Comment by rms
2015-07-27 21:29:47

“I think we ought to have structured recasting of their debt and structured recasting of their social obligations,” Bush said.

WTF does he mean, “social obligations?”

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-07-27 21:52:13

A Taco Bell commercial keeps playing this song and bumming me out. I don’t watch all that much tv, but it seems every time I turn it on, I hear this. I didn’t really understand the movie either…
All around me are familiar faces
Worn out places, worn out faces
Bright and early for the daily races
Going nowhere, going nowhere

Their tears are filling up their glasses
No expression, no expression
Hide my head I wanna drown my sorrow
No tomorrow, no tomorrow

And I find it kind of funny
I find it kind of sad
The dreams in which I’m dying are the best I’ve ever had
I find it hard to tell you,
I find it hard to take
When people run in circles it’s a very, very
Mad world, mad world

Children waiting for the day they feel good
Happy birthday, happy birthday
And to feel the way that every child should
Sit and listen, sit and listen

Went to school and I was very nervous
No one knew me, no one knew me
Hello teacher tell me, what’s my lesson?
Look right through me, look right through me

And I find it kind of funny
I find it kind of sad
The dreams in which I’m dying are the best I’ve ever had
I find it hard to tell you,
I find it hard to take
When people run in circles it’s a very, very
Mad world, mad world, enlarging your world, mad world

Must be still a little stressed from the move.
LL is looking to keep deposit. I will see him (can’t wait :p) in court.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-07-27 22:08:05

I just looked it up. When I’ve heard it in the past, I always assumed it was Michael Stipe/REM (saw him one day driving up home from midtown) but it’s not. Sounds like him.

Comment by clark
2015-07-27 23:03:18

I was reminded of the discussion on HBB about dead men walking in reference to china and LB while reading, It’s Really Very Simple, By Dmitry Orlov July 28, 2015
A snippet, “What has happened is the worst thing that could have possibly happened: in full view of the entire world, “Western values” have been demonstrated to be null and void. If you think that these are just some specific examples of difficulties or mistakes that could potentially be overcome in some dim and foggy future, then you are wrong: this is all of the “Western values” worth mentioning, and they have all been invalidated by observation. Note the past tense: they already have been invalidated.” … “Now that all Western values (other than the rights of sexual minorities) have been shown to be cynical exercises in hypocrisy, there is no path back. You see, it is a matter of reputation, and a reputation is something that one can lose exactly once. There is a path forward, but it is very frightening. There is the loss of control: Western institutions can no longer control the situation throughout much of the world, including, in due course, on their own territory. There is the abandonment of the Western narrative: Western pontificators, pundits and “thought leaders” will find that their talking points have been snatched away and will be reduced to either babbling apologetically or lapsing into embarrassed silence. Finally, there is the loss of identity: it is not possible, for the non-delusional, to identify with something (“The West”) that no longer exists.” …

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 23:20:40

Let’s see if I understand the rules of the Chinese stock market:

1) Buying is always good.

2) Selling into a collapse could open you to charges of malicious trading.

3) If trading is halted in the shares of the company you own, selling may not be an option for an indefinite period of time, while your unrealized losses continually compound.

Why would anyone buy under these trading rules?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-07-27 23:38:21

Marketwatch dot com
J.J. Zhang’s Winner Take All
Opinion: What I learned talking to stock-market investors in Shanghai
By J.J. Zhang
Published: July 28, 2015 2:01 a.m. ET

Though Greece has dominated the news recently, its overall market impact has been surprisingly muted. Instead, the real market mover and shaker for the last couple of months has been China.

By now, many are familiar with the facts and numbers of the Shanghai market situation. But recent events have also shed a light on a less well known dynamic — the individual behavioral habits and viewpoints of

Chinese market participations.

During a short stay in Shanghai a few weeks ago on unrelated business, I had an opportunity to witness the ground zero of the China market frenzy at its peak and its nascent plunge. Chinese retail investors make up 85% of the market, a far cry from the U.S. where retail investors own less than 30% of equities and make up less than 2% of NYSE trading volume for listed firms in 2009.

Combined with the highest trading frequencies in the world and one of the lowest educational levels, describing China’s market as immature is an understatement. As many readers know, mental irrationality is often cited as the No. 1 cause of poor returns.

Using the opportunity to interview some China market participants, both in Shanghai and elsewhere, here are a few observations of how they think and act — and the potential lessons that await.

Bubbles can be surprisingly predictable

During the housing bubble run-up and subsequent recriminations, a common excuse was the impossibility of predicting and diagnosing bubbles. However, bubbles can often be characterized by several irrational behaviors and metrics and the recent China bubble is no exception. Almost everyone in the financial industry knew the Shanghai market was in a bubble. Interestingly, from my interviews with everyday participants, they knew it as well, many agreed that the market was crazy and was likely in a bubble. It was not a question of if, but when, the bubble would pop.

Chasing bubbles in China isn’t new

An interesting counterpoint to the bubble awareness is that, frankly, Chinese participants are used to chasing bubbles. Whether a cultural phenomenon or something else, over the last decade there’s been a continual hopping of investment from one big money-making scheme to the next. Whether it was real estate a decade ago, gold half a decade ago or wealth-management products a few years ago, there’s a continual cycle of money rotation into the “hot” investment, with each failing eventually in some way. It’s simply stock’s turn. As one interviewee said: “The Chinese market is not for investing, it’s for gambling.”

Early birds get the worms

This goes completely against most prudent and established norms. While the standard advice is to avoid “hot” bubbly assets, in China the experience has actually been to jump in early and fully instead. Many of the bubbles or “hot” investments mentioned earlier have in truth made many of the people I’ve talked to a lot of money. China real estate today is a poor investment but those who got in early doubled or tripled their investments. Similarly with wealth-management products, more people have benefited from their high-interest-rate payouts than have suffered. While the Shanghai market has dropped 20%-30% from its peak a few weeks ago, it still represents a 100% gain from a year ago and a 30% gain over the last 6 months. Those participants who jumped in early are still more than happy.

Greed is king

Despite recognizing it’s a bubble, almost everyone was still all-in on stocks. Why? Quite simply — greed with a dash of jealously. Seeing constant market gains in the news along with daily sharing and boasting from friends and family getting rich is simply too tempting and thus caution was thrown to the winds. Subsequently, this fueled a massive amount of equity exposure followed by leveraging and margin borrowing to go even more all-in.

But fear is the emperor

The only emotion more powerful than greed is fear. Almost everyone I talked to was still all-in on stocks but everyone had a foot halfway out the door, ready to bolt at the first sign of trouble. While not uniquely a China problem — market drops are almost always more violent than the initial rise — in China, it’s several times more volatile. Look no further than solar-panel firm Hanergy’s Hong Kong listed stock, which lost 47% in one hour, or the numerous days the Shanghai market rose or dropped by 5% or more.

Moral hazard in government rescues is real

During the most chaotic moments of the financial crisis, bailout discussions always raised the specter of moral hazard. While it didn’t play a major role in the subsequent U.S. recovery, moral hazard in China is fast becoming a deep problem. Many market participants I talked to said they were confident in the Chinese government to step in eventually to maintain order and prevent mass panic. They know the government’s legitimacy relies heavily on economic progress and fear any contraction. So far, they’ve been right — the government has announced a never-ending stream of interventions over the last few weeks to stem the selloff and panic, with the latest being the implementation of a half-trillion-yuan fund to purchase stock and shore up the market. Of course, the question is: When does a problem become too big for the government to control?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-07-28 00:25:05

They have a gun pointed at their head?

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