The Housing Bubble

Let’s hope, for her sake, that becoming a Physical Therapist doesn’t become overly popular. If wages and salaries are high then the field can get quite crowded - crowded with people who are driven by debts to work at whatever salaries they can obtain.

Trendy? Is becoming a Physical Therapist a “trendy” thing to do?

There’s danger in pursuing a good-paying occupation if the occupation is trendy.

Unless you’re a glutton for punishment, the occupation is not trendy. In fact it is quite physically demanding, although some get around that by supervising the use of machines and exercise equipment at physical therapy offices. The actual body work, however, is very tough. One of my neighbors is a PT and works regularly for health organizations doing outcall to homebound patients. He has to do a lot of lifting and pulling, etc. and it is very tiring.

By “trendy” I was thinking in terms as alluring. The allure may be appealing even though the reality may not be.

But possibly the reality won’t kick in until after graduation (and thousands of dollars of debt.)

“…but know I won’t be helping repay any of it”

LOL.

“God ain’t made a man that could stand up to the power that lays between a woman’s thighs. You see, the hold that little cooter has on a man’s life is unbreakable. It can bring a strong man to his knees.” -Prentice Ritter, about why he lives on the range.

It doesn’t bring a strong man to his knees.

No strong man lets a woman take him down.

Err - and vice versa, of course, lol!

A PT license takes a BS + 3 yrs.

A racket. It should only take 3 years. The BS part is BS. My science degree would add nothing to 3 years of PT training imo.

The BS helps you get hired and promoted and be more well rounded.

A nation of debt donkey with debts that will be collected into retirement by the Chinese.

Only bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can fix this.

Can you imagine a nation with affordable higher education where the government let loan agreements between students and colleges be private and subject to all fraud and bankruptcy laws?

I know - hard to by FSA votes that way.

These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses. More printing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the current administration socializes these losses - with an announcement, say, in September/October 2016.

November 2016 is the election.

I posted this last week but I’ll repeat: I’m sure that the student debt is the driver behind the new mortgages which are 0% down mortgages but still require fully amortized PITI.

With a $60K job, Goon’s cute PT can afford the rent and student debt nut, but can’t save for a down payment at the same time. One solution is a 0% down mortgage to convince the PT to shift from a rent payment into a mortgage payment NOW, so she won’t have to scrimp and save for a decade.

The other solution, of course, is to land a meal ticket. Sounds like the goon lowered the vas boom on that fast.

Donk,

The math doesn’t work. Not for you. Not for Goon’s latest squeeze.

These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses.

I think a good compromise is to discharge only the tuition debt, and leave the students on the hook for living expenses. At least when I was in college, tuition (not including books/fees) was 2/3 the total cost. So goon’s PT would have to pay back $50K, which is manageable.

I wouldn’t be against that, IF they filed a REAL BK, not the mamby-pamby FICO hit. No new debt for 7 years — no house, no car financing, secured credit card.

” a good compromise ”

The problems with this kind of debt are that it was ever borrowed and that it was ever loaned.

I financed my own education, ended up owing $10k after getting by BS from one of the best colleges in CA. I paid it off from the proceeds of my first place in 2003. I bought that place in 1989 for $230k in a beach town, sold for $419k. They go for $559k today and they are lame tri-levels with a high/nazi HOA.

“These will eventually be dischargeable in BK, socializing the losses. More printing.”

I dont think so. If they are I would go back and get my MBA or maybe something more fun like an MFA, live it up, then file BK.

I financed my own education, ended up owing $10k after getting by BS from one of the best colleges in CA.

If it was a state university, the taxpayers of California paid for most if your education.

“If it was a state university, the taxpayers of California paid for most if your education.”

And the roads and bridges I used to get there. Nothing new.

“You didnt build it”

The math doesn’t work.

By the time you’re done saying that, peeps will have paid off their house.

Do the math. It works. That’s why it’s called math.

Hello Lola.

He’s senile. Explains the poor diction and repletion. He turns on Fox, gets enough adrenalin in his system to type a few hundred words of loonacy every day

It’s not about the education. It’s about the scam.

Tons of advertisements for A&P schools, due to the “shortage” of aircraft mechanics.

So the kid signs up. Takes out a (say) $60K school loan.

Deposits the $60K with the school.

And the kicker……

Pays for the school UP FRONT.

Four months go by. Student is in the “General” courses. Basically designed to determine if you have the smarts to get in the “A” and “P” courses. Back in my day, these courses “culled the herd” by 50-75%. With today’s public education, I can’t see it being any better.

Or they find out that any kind of drug charge/conviction means that the FAA won’t issue you a license.

For the guys that can’t pass……no A&P. But the school pockets the whole $60K. And the student still owes the bank $60K (not dischargable) for the student loan.

Our economy is not designed around “growth”. It designed around ever-multiplying ways to rip people off.

I had to look it up. Airframe and Powerplant. 12-24 month program.

Is that $60K for the full 2 years? Does the school keep all the money if you have to withdraw for some other reason, like family emergency or illness? Or just if you flunk? And how is this legal? They are making you pay for services not rendered.

Who is lending this $60K in one fell swoop? When I was in school, my Stafford loans were paid one semester at a time. You could borrow only very little for freshman/sophomore years. For junior/senior, they lend you a little more because they figure by then you won’t flunk. Similarly, if you defer paying back the loans (for example if you attend grad school), you have to re-defer every semester. Every semester of grad school, I had to send in a letter from the grad school registrar proving that I was actually attending grad school. So one way or another, the gov tried not to lose any more than one semester of money.

It designed around ever-multiplying ways to rip people off.

No, it is designed around ever-multiplying ways to collect government cheese. Yup — those government haters love to decry government programs, but they are first in line to “administer” those programs.

For-profit schools are simply a funnel for government student loan money. The closure of Corinthian was a shot across the bow.

I’m referring to for-profit schools, not small private liberal arts colleges, which are their own different wastes of money, except for the networking opportunities, which can sometimes pay off handsomely.

I see it happening a lot with kids who probably otherwise wouldn’t go to college, coming from families with no college graduates.

DU (University of Denver) and Regis (A Jesuit School) are “real schools” but they are not any better than CSU, CU or Northern Colorado U (UNC). You can get a degree at UNC for less than a single year at DU or Regis (I said 30K per semester, I meant per year). And if you are majoring in STEM, they can’t touch the Colorado School of Mines, another state U.

State schools have had to tighten their admissions. Maybe those for-profit and small-lib college are for the lackluster high schoolers who didn’t realize that getting into college starts in 8th grade. Now they’re stuck with bad HS grades and can’t get into the state colleges.

Have you been partaking of your wares? Munch, munch.

Yup, I know an musician who retired there. It’s fast turning into a hipster artist colony, the type of place that holds dozens of youngster art and music camps in the summers. The musician/artist retirees do the teaching, and the rest of the retirees buy tickets to all the culture.

‘Asheville is a hipster area now, right?’

Good description. I saw it as a confluence of hippies, college kids, retirees, local yocals and a LGBT segment. Few good paying jobs but lotsa rent-seeking most likely. I’d like to go back to see how much development has happened but I am sure it would not be pretty. Wonder if they will ever sell off the Biltmore to some sheik?

Look on Google Maps. It’s pretty easy to distinguish bubble development from older houses on the satellite view. Old housing is all green lawn and trees with sprawled small rooflines. New crap is identical roofs laid out with a ruler. True cookie cutter.

From what I could tell, Asheville housing is mostly older stuff, not much newer stuff. The new stuff is probably urban infill, like those condos downtown. It’s not soulless yet.

Biltmore is still privately owned by the Vanderbilt family. They appear to be self-sustaining through house tours, winery, resort, etc. So the city can’t sell it off for cash.

‘Biltmore is still privately owned by the Vanderbilt family. They appear to be self-sustaining through house tours, winery, resort, etc. So the city can’t sell it off for cash.’

No, I knew that it was still in the family. Not sure how much money the family has, but some ridiculous price is probably attached to the mansion and its land. Just saying one day it would not surprise me if a oil sheik paid a billion dollars for it based on what I see real estate gets. Whether they would ever need to sell it or be motivated, who knows.

The NRA are p*ssies, I’m only a member because my dad bought me a membership.

Rocky Mountain Gun Owners = zero compromise.

Same kool-aid, different flavor.

I will tell that to the people of NYC, Chicago and Washington DC who, in reality, cannot legally own a gun for ANY REASON (unless politically connected).

Enjoy your Kneejerk Rifle Association kool-aid. With the KRA, *any and all* gun regulation, no matter how narrow and carefully worded to protect public safety while not diminishing the gun rights of good citizens, is automatically the first step towards full confiscation.

At least Bill can conjure an original thought in his brain

You bring nothing here but copied and pasted SPLC talking points

And you got that idea from Raymond. You mentioned SPLC, but you forgot to mention PC, SJW, feels before reals, etc.

And occasionally I’ll use punctuation!

Social Justice Warrior. Generally the bleeding heart wing of the Dem party. When the Free Sh!t Army gets an inch, they try to take a mile, and it’s the SJW’s that give them that mile like the suckers they are.

As long as his only idea for ending illegal immigration is a big fence at the border, you know he’s not for real. When we finally get a politician who talks about locking up their employers, then we’ll know we’ve got the real deal.

Reminds me of favorite Michael Jackson joke

Q: what time is bedtime at Neverland?

A: when the big hand touches the little hand

‘As in any religion, its proselytizers erect grandiose testaments to their powerful faith. “Their monuments to themselves, their version of pyramids and ziggurats,” according to Engelhardt, are the “vast data storage center the NSA is building in Bluffdale, Utah, to keep a yottabyte of private information about all of us, or the new post-9/11 headquarters of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.”

‘As with fundamentalism of any kind, its adherents are impervious to the fact that their worldview is flat-out wrong. The national-security state’s militarized messianism to rid the world of terrorism and ensure U.S. hegemony has failed. “After all, if the twenty-first century has taught us anything, it’s that the most expensive and over-equipped military on the planet can’t win a war,” writes Engelhardt. “Its two multitrillion-dollar attempts since 9/11, in Iraq and Afghanistan, both against lightly armed minority insurgencies, proved disasters.”

http://fff.org/explore-freedom/article/global-thug-state/

Ben Jones, the United States can do more by offering Constitutionally protected freedom of religion to historically (and present day, i.e. France) persecuted religious minorities than by dumping $600,000,000,000+ a year into a bottomless pit war machine just to satisfy the bloodlust of the Rapture voter demographic

Its almost 10am here and I have customers to serve, have a good day

Its almost 10am here and I have customers to serve, have a good day

At least they won’t be worrying about mushroom clouds popping up, will they?

The U.S. should coordinate the immigration of 5 million Israeli Jews to move here, end all foreign aid to the Middle East, and shut down every military base there

When you write, “move here”, you mean Denver, right?

You think this idea is a joke? I’m dead serious

Let every resident of Tel Aviv with a bachelor’s degree or higher move to Denver/Boulder and within a decade we’ll be the next Silicon Valley

Why just Tel Aviv? And what about the people with degrees in the humanities?

Because the women from Tel Aviv are hot

Duran Duran wrote a song about them on their first album

“Because the women from Tel Aviv are hot”

Yep. http://picpaste.com/bar-refaeli.jpg

Her name is Rachel, and she dances on the sand,
Just like that river twisting through the promised land…

Rio getting the Olympics will be a huge boon for Rio. (It already has been.) However, it will be a net loss dollarwise for the country.

You’re going to see a month of stunning postcard visuals from the most physically beautiful city in the world.

(And I’m not a Riophile)

Should I feel sorry for the bagholders-to-be who bought into Housing Bubble 2.0 in the mistaken belief the Fed would never let its Ponzi markets and asset bubbles crater?

With Yemen and Saudi Arabia in a shooting war that shows no sign of abating, along with an intensifying Sunni-Shia conflict, I don’t expect oil to remain at these prices too much longer.

Yeah, the price of WTI changes every day.

Big oil gets $600k pr day in subsidies.

It looks like some of the Ogalala may be saved, because:

-Commodity prices are falling

-Cost of electricity to run the pumps is rising

-Drilling newer/deeper wells costs money that isn’t there

But as usual, these die-hard “get government off my back” Republicans will lobby the state and Federal government for subsidies/government intervention of some kind, to “fix” all of the above.

Because, you know, their way of life/fantasy is worth preserving

Yeah, and those same Republicans get all googly-eyed over building a pipeline to move Canadian oil over US soil… but helping American farmers, not so much

Here’s the -fixer’s Commie “If I was Stalin” Central Plan:

-Grow crops that need a lot of water in areas that have a lot of water/rainfall.

-Grow crops that don’t need a lot of water in areas that don’t get a lot of rain.

-Start working toward creating the “Buffalo Commons”. Buffalo meat is a lot healthier for you anyway.

-Stop subsidizing water consumption (with government funded infrastructure) in arid locations.

See? No aquaduct needed.

Here is what I’ve learned about private equity companies. The won’t fund ANY project, no matter how worthwhile, unless there is a 8-10% ROI from the get-go. (Why risk losing your money on dubious projects like infrastructure and factories, when you get 4-6% guaranteed return on Wall Street funny money, with all risk transferred to the Federal Government?)

Which is why government ends up doing all of the break even and money losing projects.

“Stop subsidizing water consumption (with government funded infrastructure) in arid locations

LMAO! While I agree with everything you said, you’re not stating much about farmers in California. Can you imagine what a Californian would say to remove irrigated water from the picture?

Two-thirds of the residents would have to leave.

Perhaps California should have no more than 10 million people living there. It doesn’t have the resources to support more.

Buffalo in the western half of Kansas ain’t a bad idea. Buffalo (or similar) in much of California might not be a bad idea, either.

Perhaps we can start a mass migration out of California, and into - say - Mississippi.

gotta give them water, we have the soil.

Eaten a salad recently? Odds are the lettuce, carrots, and celery came from California. Have a soft spot for stone fruit? California produces 84 percent of the country’s fresh peaches and 94 percent of the country’s fresh plums. It produces 99 percent of the artichokes grown in the United States, and 94 percent of the broccoli. As spring begins to creep in, almost half of asparagus will come from California.

The U.S. government spent almost $84.5 billion dollars subsidizing corn between 1995 and 2012, and a good portion of corn crops does not make it to a plate, instead used as ethanol or feed for livestock.

Apparently you’ve not traveled much.

Ever driven through Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio during the summer? What will you see there? Massive operations that make it the breadbasket of the world. It’s mindboggling.

Been to Florida’s citrus groves?

How about to Alaska, where much lettuce and broccoli are grown?

Or to Idaho and Wisconsin for potatoes?

To the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas for wheat?

Or Georgia and South Carolina for peaches, pecans and peanuts?

To the Gulf Coast states for cotton?

Or to Michigan for cherries and blueberries?

To New England for maple syrup?

The USA can survive easily without California’s ag fields.

your wrong, google it.

Let California dry up and fall off. The world will be a better place without the welfare case.

“….look at the future…..”

Aha! Another central planning commie…….

What is this “pay-off” of which you speak, kemo sabe?

And (most important), who is getting it?

Just playing “Devil’s Advocate”.

What you say would be considered “Sensible Government”.

But like “free markets”, it seems like most “sensible government” falls in the Fantasy/Candy crapping unicorn column.

What is this “pay-off” of which you speak, kemo sabe?
Kemo Sabe think Tonto not know his name means “fool” in Spanish

sensible government = moar government = government for rich.

Shiller called a US housing bubble in 2001. Notice nobody calls him a doom and gloomer. Who can say on timing? I started a foreclosure blog before there were very many. I educated myself, started a foreclosure related business. In a couple of years I was working 7 days a week preserving houses and hauling FB junk to the dump.

I never believed housing had fully corrected, so I kept this blog going. Around 2011, I started to find articles about love letters to sellers, Vancouver condos selling out pre-construction in 3 hours, with the inevitable Chinese investors. Some said, there’s no bubble. I said, it sure looks like one to me. Now we’ve got people paying a million over asking in California. Still no bubble? It’s spread to Iowa and Indiana and Montana, land prices doubling, tripling. Tens of thousands of Miami condos in the works at prices way above 2006. Still no bubble? One of the completed towers just turned up 95% for rent or sale.

I don’t want bad things to happen to this economy. I have family members who will get burned if I am right. Some people reading this too. But what’s going to happen doesn’t depend on what I think or say. There’s this; the answer to a bubble fueled by money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates, should not have been more money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates.

Lower house prices are the resolution to a housing bubble.

AKA, the “When life hands out lemons, make lemonade” plan.

I’m convinced that the current, even bigger bubble isn’t going to turn out any better than the last one. And have tried to plan accordingly.

The problem is figuring out who/where is going to just get slightly screwed over, and who is going to get hammered. Especially when the water issue starts getting thrown in the mix.

“There’s this; the answer to a bubble fueled by money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates, should not have been more money printing, debt and artificially low interest rates.”

“Lower house prices are the resolution to a housing bubble.”

Yes and yes.

+1

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/most-important-market-trendline-2009-was-just-broken

Stocks about to keeeeraaaaaassh in USA

Precious metals will reverse

Houses are a loss Lola.

Right. In not having to pay rent I’m gonna lose about 3K August first. And about 3K September 1st too. How’s that for a loss angry loser fool?

comrade, you keep bragging about your big paid off house and your business(es)? aren’t you ashamed about how much of the world’s wealth you’re hogging? you have way beyond your fair share. what about those that have less than you?

i think we should take your house and business. sell them off for the greater good. pool the money with others so we can take care of everyone. we’ll give each of you enough each month to get by. you wouldn’t want to get more than you need, right?

and don’t worry, we’ll do it fair and square by bringing it to a vote. wanna bet that we won’t get the votes? nothing you can say comrade. it’s what the people wanted. the majority wins again.

think of others besides yourself comrade. why should you get to own a house when so many others don’t have one? what makes you so special?

and we don’t want to hear about how hard you worked for it. it doesn’t matter because you cheated in order to get it. you couldn’t have gotten it without cheating. it just isn’t possible.

you’re one of those limousine liberal hypocrites who talks a good game from your unearned station in life. all your life you’ve been taking advantage of people who have less than you. there’s no other way to get ahead other than by cheating or outright stealing. the poor see what you’re doing. why do you hate the poor so much? what did they ever do to you that you’d flaunt your wealth and good fortune in front of them?

time for you to give up your house, business and bank accounts and be more caring.

maybe we can work a deal where you can keep your house and maybe your business. but we need to tax you at 75% at least, to help people in need.

you’ve had so much for so long.. it’s your time to contribute.

you’re one of those limousine liberal hypocrites

Stop it. You almost made me wreck my golf cart!

so you really don’t care about the poor. all you care about is your next golf game, like your puppet prez.

if you cared, or at least were less of a hypocrite, you’d gladly fork over your fair share.

again comrade, why do you hate the poor?

you’d gladly fork over your fair share….why do you hate the poor?

Total BS. I’ll tip my caddy.

(It’s a write off.)

all the rich tip their caddies. it’s nothing to them.

you’re just one of the callous rich that hate the poor. you do nothing for them but talk. they see through your BS.

you’re all talk comrade. you’ll never do anything to help the poor and they know it. one day they’ll take it from you by force. and if anyone deserves to have it taken from them, it’s an exploiting hypocrite like you.

all you have is bs and lies. no honesty and no character.

you’re worthless in every meaning of the word.

It’s ok to be poor Lola but why all the anger?

but why all the anger?

Because I double double-bogeyed the 5th and forgot to wear sunscreen.

….you’re just one of the callous rich, you do nothing for them..
you’re all talk….you’ll never do anything …
all you have is bs and lies… no honesty and no character.
you’re worthless in every meaning of the word.

Write soon,
Love,
Mom

I’d offer you a cup of rage Lola but you’re already there.

I’d offer you a cup of rage Lola but you’re already there.

Wrong answer.

Unlike mine, your Emotional IQ is very low. You have lousy human perception. I’ve been laughing posting today. Especially with you and little tj. Youz be funny!

Emotional intelligence definition, skill in perceiving, understanding, and managing emotions and feelings.

on top of being a lying hypocrite, you’re childish. you can’t make an adult argument with me, so you resort to childishness.

you refuse to debate me. you brag about your big house. the most you can do in an argument is copy it and return it. you want to steal from some and pretend to give to others, like hillary does. like all good socialists do. you’re evil comrade. the thing is, i think you even see it yourself. you just don’t care. you want to pretend to be ‘good’ so others will think you are. it’s self aggrandizement. you want to look bigger and better than you are.

but there are some people you can’t fool.

you’re evil comrade…lying hypocrite, like hillary, you’re childish….you want to steal

Does this mean no dinner and a movie Friday night??

Truly funny, our resident bubblehead idiot in Brazil thinks his house is paying him princely sums. Truth is the Brazilian Peso is dropping like a stone.

thinks his house is paying him princely sums

Every month. “Free rent” How is it not paying me? You’re just jealous.

(What’s a Brazilian Peso?)

true, plus the bigger his house is, the more he loses on it over time. yet he wants to brag on it. if i were him, i’d be trying to keep it a secret to at least not show the idiocy of it.

Every month. “Free rent” How is it not paying me?

1. the money you used to pay it off could have been invested to get a good return.

2. you have to pay taxes on it. a constant drain.

3. it depreciates over time unless you’re in a bubble mania and then when the bubble pops if you still own it and want to sell you’re worse off than when the bubble began.

4. maintenance and repairs. another constant drain.

but don’t worry. your house is making you zillions.

and i’m not even against owning a house. i’m against fooling one’s self into thinking it’s a money making investment. but you go ahead and keep believing your fairy tale. it fits you perfectly.

i’d be trying to keep it a secret to at least not show the idiocy of it.

I know tj. Having a paid-off house is the exact definition of idiocy. It’s just English.

id·i·o·cy
ˈidēəsē/
noun
noun: idiocy; plural noun: idiocies

extremely stupid behavior.
“the idiocy of decimating rain forests”
synonyms: stupidity, folly, foolishness, foolhardiness, ignorance; More
madness, insanity, lunacy, nonsense;
silliness, brainlessness, thoughtlessness, senselessness, irresponsibility, imprudence, ineptitude, inanity, absurdity, ludicrousness, fatuousness;
informalcraziness
“a unique combination of arrogance, complacency, and plain idiocy”
antonyms: sense

Origin
early 16th century (originally denoting low intelligence): from idiot, probably on the pattern of pairs such as lunatic, lunacy .

“What’s a Brazilian Peso?

It’s what you’ve Real’y got.

as i said above comrade (if you can read), the idiocy isn’t in owning a house, it’s believing that it’s a money making investment. owning a home is a liability no matter how you slice it or how much you think you’re saving in rent.

Idiot is Latin. It means not knowing.

it’s believing that it’s a money making investment.

Fact:
Owning a home outright saves me thousands of dollars every month.

There is no way that fact can be contorted or skewed because of your crackpot “theories”.

No “but if’s” and “you could have’s” can change the fact of:

Owning a home outright saves me thousands of dollars every month.

You just can’t do it. Sorry. Next?

no it doesn’t. you’re not counting the money you used to pay it off.

the money you’re ’saving’ could be money you’re making instead. but you’ll never get it. please, keep investing in houses and thinking you’re coming out ahead. you deserve what you’re getting.

You don’t own anything but an alley refrigerator box Lola.

no it doesn’t

Yes it does.

you’re not counting the money you used to pay it off.

Yes I am.

the money you’re ’saving’ could be money

Shoulda, coulda, woulda

but you’ll never get it.

you don’t get it

thinking you’re coming out ahead.

Not thinking, but knowing.

you deserve what you’re getting.

tens and tens of thousands every year.

Is your refrigerator box big enough for your make up station?

keep believing your fairy tale comrade.

you’re too stupid to know how much further ahead you could be.

why don’t you ask an investment broker or better yet read a good book on investing to find out if a house is an investment or a liability? you won’t because you’re caught in your own aggrandizement. you believe in your delusions. they’re real to you because reality hasn’t hit you yet. it will.

Why are you?

What are talking about? I almost never state my preferences on this blog. I might do it once or twice a year. It doesn’t make for an interesting discussion to simply state one’s preferences.

Prices are falling. That’s positively bullish and good for the economy.

Not for people deep in debt they used to finance overpriced assets like houses.

Too bad, so sad, for people who recently went deeply into debt to climb on the property latter in case these asset price declines keep going and going and going. Only those with freely allocatable cash will be able to partake of upcoming asset fire sales.

That’s what happens when you blindly pay 250% premiums(or 2x construction costs) for a depreciating asset like a house.