Getting The Last Juice Out Of The Orange
A weekend topic on what one poster called the Milli Vanilli nature of the global housing bubble. From CNBC. “Ask anyone trying to buy a home today, and the vast majority will launch into a story about a bidding war. Demand for housing has returned, but housing supply has not, and the numbers are only getting worse. ‘Finding a house is the last hurdle for many buyers who have saved a down payment and gotten pre-approved for a mortgage, but low inventory levels like those we’re seeing across the country can bring the homebuying process to a screeching halt,’ said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. ‘Sellers tend to want to hang in and get the last juice out of the orange. If you think you might see 10 percent appreciation over the next year, is it rational to move where you might squeeze more out of the market? No.’”
“That seller psychology is only feeding the problem in some of the hottest markets. Low inventory only pushes prices higher, and makes more sellers want to wait. That in turn pushes supply lower, as housing demand rises. In addition, higher rents are keeping more first-time buyers from saving for a down payment. ‘If we can get additional increase in supply, then price increases will begin to flatten out, which will be good for the economy, good for many first time buyers, but as long as we have limited supply, and that’s what we have today, then prices inevitably will continue to rise,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.”
Palm Springs Life in California. “The median Coachella Valley price per square foot rose $3 in April to $183.39. This represents a 4.1 percent gain over the price one year ago of $176.06. However, three major cities now have negative gains year over year — La Quinta, Indio, and Palm Desert — with Palm Desert just barely so at minus .8 percent. Overall, this deceleration in gains after three years of rapid price increases was expected; that pace could not continue. Many people still expected an increase in sales due to easier credit and a drop in unemployment. However, this has not yet happened; sales are still running 30 percent below pre-bubble norms.”
“Valley inventory, at 4,948 units, is still near the off-season high of 5,116 units that was set two months ago. This is 900 units, or 22 percent, larger than it was last year at this time. The best measure of the inventory size is a ratio called ‘months of sales,’ which is calculated by dividing inventory by the average monthly sales rate. It is currently at 7.2 months, which is a little high even when allowing for seasonality. Last year at this time, it was 5.6 months and the year before that, 4.4 months.”
“This ratio indicates how many months it would take to sell the entire inventory at the current sales rate. If it gets much over six months, it can put pressure on homeowners to reduce their asking price. It is already putting some upward pressure on how long it takes to sell the median home, called ‘days on the market.’ While still at an acceptable 90 days, it took only 74 days one year ago.”
KBTV in Texas. “Beaumont home sales soared 34 percent in June 2015 while home prices also posted strong double-digit gains, according to the June 2015 Beaumont housing market report. One strong indicator is that average selling price in June was $155,000, up 24 percent (459 listings) from last year, which itself was a strong year. Beaumont’s monthly housing inventory was 5.5 months in June 2015, 2.6 months less than the year prior.”
“President of the Beaumont Board of REALTORS®, Vivian Todd said she had never seen the Beaumont market as busy as it is. ‘I am personally seeing multiple contract offers on a house and houses selling in one or two days.’”
D Magazine in Texas. “Home prices have spiked as demand far outweighs supply. While sellers sift through dozens of offers, buyers stalk moving vans and estate sales. The North Texas real estate market has turned into a seller’s bonanza, but buyers have become frantic and frustrated. Real estate brokers are working overtime to accommodate them, but selling fewer houses because there aren’t enough to go around. Some sellers are cashing in. Others are holding onto their homes because they’ve got nowhere to go.”
“‘This is unprecedented,’ says Mark Dotzour, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. ‘I have never seen anything like this in the four decades I’ve been studying the markets.’”
“‘Nine times out of 10, if you’re not there in the first five hours, it’s just gone,’ East Dallas agent Britt Lopez says. Many buyers don’t believe it at first. Then they lose out on a house or three. Finally, they turn into buying commandos. They cruise neighborhoods looking for moving vans and estate sales. They check and recheck their iPhones for new listings. ‘I am on the MLS app like it’s Candy Crush,’ says Michelle Chism, as she searched for homes in Plano.”
“Brokers are showing more houses and writing more contracts than ever before—but selling fewer homes. Lopez generally sells more than 40 houses a year in East Dallas, but last year sold only 33. ‘And it was a fight to sell that many,’ Lopez says. ‘I’m working three times as hard as I normally do, for two-thirds of the income.’”
“Just before her house went live on the real estate market this spring, Emily Morris ran the vacuum one last time and prepared to leave town for the weekend. As she stepped outside, Morris was surprised to see that a line had already formed along the sidewalk. Cars clogged the small subdivision in Allen. In the next two days, 149 real estate agents made appointments to show the 1,400-square-foot house, shuffling buyers through in 10-minute increments. By Sunday night, Morris had 70 offers. All but four said they would pay more than the list price of $150,000, by as much as $20,000.”
“That evening, real estate agent Kim McCarty sat at her kitchen table, entering the details of each contract into a spreadsheet. Offer amounts, closing dates, earnest money, loan guarantees. And then there were personal letters, a stack of them—from a soldier, a pregnant woman, a working mom—each one straining for the right tone, the right mix of humor, sentimentality, and obsequiousness. Prospective buyers sent pictures of themselves. Pictures of their pets. (One dog, Dr Pepper, looked plaintively at the camera, a bandanna around his neck.)”
“Many agents are trying to dial down the frenzy. Buyers are having to move so quickly to get houses that, once gotten, they often have second thoughts. That’s what happened to real estate agent Kim McCarty’s listing in Allen. After topping the list of 70 offers—by paying $20,000 more than list, picking up the title policy, and allowing the young couple to stay in the home rent-free until their new house was ready—the first prospective buyers ended up backing out.”
“‘Buyer’s remorse sets in,’ McCarty says. ‘They start to wonder: ‘Have I overpaid? Did I agree to too many things?’ But another buyer stepped in, offering nearly the same terms. And the process continued.”
‘Valley inventory, at 4,948 units, is still near the off-season high of 5,116 units that was set two months ago. This is 900 units, or 22 percent, larger than it was last year at this time. The best measure of the inventory size is a ratio called ‘months of sales,’ which is calculated by dividing inventory by the average monthly sales rate. It is currently at 7.2 months, which is a little high even when allowing for seasonality…It is already putting some upward pressure on how long it takes to sell the median home, called ‘days on the market.’ While still at an acceptable 90 days, it took only 74 days one year ago.’
7.2 months or 90 days?
‘Beaumont’s monthly housing inventory was 5.5 months in June 2015…‘I am personally seeing multiple contract offers on a house and houses selling in one or two days.’
5.5 months or one or two days?
This “lack of supply” story is clearly a fabrication.
Here’s what I wondered out loud about long ago; how can we have this incredible low supply of houses all over the country at the same time. I mean it’s every nook and cranny of Podunk middle-of-nowhere to the big cities. How can the MSM not notice?
It would be one thing if there was some mass migration, but how can the supply be low everywhere?
Take a trip through mid atlantic states and all the way to the northern bounds of New England. For sale signs everywhere.
“It would be one thing if there was some mass migration, but how can the supply be low everywhere?”
Could this be due to investors who went hog wild snapping up ‘excess inventory’ on news that the Fed was planning to reflate housing after the Fall 2008 financial collapse?
They’ve now saved a down payment. AhhahahabahahHhHHHhahaa
Yes, that’s certainly part of it. That, and the banks holding inventory off the market along with people underwater unable to sell all contributes to where we are. The question is: Who would want to buy in this market?
Here’s what I wondered out loud about long ago; how can we have this incredible low supply of houses all over the country at the same time. I mean it’s every nook and cranny of Podunk middle-of-nowhere to the big cities.
In my little burg, above a certain price point, there never was a shortage, and that price point is around the mid to high 200’s.
You’re correct. There is no shortage in CO. $300k? It seems like the price is double the long term trend price….. like everywhere else.
The supply of rental houses is quite low in the Sacramento foothills. The last two houses I put up for rent leased in less than a week of the CL posting. The new residents took possession within days of the old residents vacating. I have friends with friends calling me to see if I have any houses available (which I do not).
I have never seen it this tight.
With the never ending foreclosure moratoriums in effect in CA, it might appear that way Jingle_Fraud.
7.2 months or 90 days?
I think you are confusing total inventory clearing time with how long it takes to sell the average house.
If it takes 7.2 months to sell all the houses, the average selling time for one house to sell is about 3.6 months. That is where the 90 days is generated.
‘I have never seen it this tight’
You forgot, “I’ve been in the real estate biz for 25 years and I’ve never seen it so tight!”
You’re falling down on the job JM. Gotta use an exclamation point.
‘Beaumont’s monthly housing inventory was 5.5 months in June 2015…‘I am personally seeing multiple contract offers on a house and houses selling in one or two days’
So where is the one or two days generated?
‘If it takes 7.2 months to sell all the houses, the average selling time for one house to sell is about 3.6 months. That is where the 90 days is generated.’
So you’re saying they are two statistics. I’m asking about how they look compared to each other. Let’s say 100 houses sold in this month and they had all been on the market 3 months. If that’s 7.2 months sales, that would leave 620 houses. Let’s assume all 620 had been put up for sale the first of the month. To be sold in the next 60 days would mean sales would have to double or triple.
Or maybe someone is playing hanky-panky with the numbers:
“One thing that isn’t going away despite the hot market is the payment of financial concessions by sellers. Financial concessions, such as paying a buyer’s closing costs, were paid on 65 percent of all the existing homes that sold in the second quarter, up from 48 percent during the same period last year. Stacey Anfindsen, a Cary appraiser, said the continuing payment of concessions remains one of the most baffling aspects of the local housing recovery.”
“‘With a two-month supply of housing, it’s economically illogical that somebody should have to incentivize someone to buy something when there’s a shortage of something,’ he said.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9134
Here’s an example I got in an email yesterday, a foreclosure:
Listing Update
$69,660
839 W Calle Matus
Tucson, AZ 85705 • #21521292
New Listing
But it isn’t new:
08/01/15 Listing removed $69,660 $62
07/11/15 Pending sale $69,660 $62
06/16/15 Price change $69,660-10.0% $62
05/15/15 Price change $77,400-10.0% $69
04/13/15 Listed for sale $86,000+24.9% $77
11/12/14 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $68,880+359% $62
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/839-W-Calle-Matus-Tucson-AZ-85705/71678610_zpid/
Over at UHS.com:
2 days on realtor.com
Home For Sale New
839 W Calle Matus Tucson, AZ 85705 Foreclosure Bank Owned
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/839-W-Calle-Matus_Tucson_AZ_85705_M25115-82908
Lookin like Lion Realtors still have nothing but contempt for the public…….. and the truth.
My Baby Does the Hanky Panky
“839 W Calle Matus, Tucson, AZ 85705″
Not much curb appeal… just a box of air.
Frisco, TX Housing Prices Fall 11%; Inventory Skyrockets 121%
http://www.movoto.com/frisco-tx/market-trends/
This D Magazine article and the related graphics has to signify something about the mania:
‘The Great Dallas Land Rush’
And this:
‘Is market flipped out?’
‘The ad delivered in the daily flow of spam brought to mind those heady days leading up to the home market crash when it seemed like every other person was trying to buy a house and then flip it.’
“In need of real estate funding? Want a cash loan to flip a home?” was the Internet pitch in July from a company in Midvale, Utah. “Get started now. Get real estate funding. No collateral,” reads the pitch. “Funding in as fast as 10 business days.”
‘Flipping houses is a legitimate business venture, despite some of the craziness that appeared just before the Great Recession, but for some flippers it may still be somewhat of a seat-of-the-pants business. A drive through Grand Rapids is likely to reveal at least one sign tacked to a utility pole: “We buy houses,” followed by a phone number.’
‘The careful flippers look for homes in need of renovation, which theoretically lowers the buying price. Then they do the renovations and put the home up for sale again. The situation in West Michigan may be significantly different than the Midvale, Utah, home market, however.’
“I honestly don’t hear that there is much flipping at all right now,” said Julie Rietberg, CEO of the Grand Rapids Association of Realtors. “I think the current market conditions cause it to not be an ideal time for that. Inventory is at an all-time low.”
‘GRAR’s June report on Average Months of Inventory shows that in 2002, it was 5.5 months. That number began shooting up starting in 2005, with eight months of inventory on hand. From 2006 through 2008, it was 10.7, 11.7 and 13.3, respectively.’
‘Then the home market took a huge hit, with the average months of inventory beginning to decline every year, starting with 9.7 in 2009. Last year it was 3.2 months and as of June 2015, it was 2.3 months of available homes on hand.’
‘Year-to-date closed sales at this point in 2014 were 4,820 units, compared to this year with 5,288 units. Prices are going up, too. The average home sale in June 2014 was $171,092; this June it was $181,980, according to GRAR data.’
‘GRAR covers a region that includes Kent County, southeastern Ottawa County, Ionia County, the six townships in northeast Allegan County and the northern half of Barry County including Gun Lake.’
“Multiple offers on listings have become the norm, and we often see homes selling above the actual appraised value. Most flippers are not going to go into the investment paying top dollar, and buyers purchasing for a primary residence are much more willing to put time and sweat into fixing up a home that may not be in great condition, just to be able to get a home,” said Rietberg.’
Any bubble yet?
‘Multiple offers on listings have become the norm, and we often see homes selling above the actual appraised value’
“Multiple offers on listings have become the norm, and we often see homes selling above the actual appraised value.”
With the widespread appraisal fraud and appraisers on the take, this blurb is meaningless.
This week I posted an article with a house in Phoenix, purchased for 270k with an attempt to flip at 800k. I spoke with a guy in Dallas yesterday who told me of a similar attempt. Are these sales going through and are they being financed? If they are being financed, then appraisal fraud must be rampant.
Two = rampant?
Speaking of fraud….. Jingle_Fraud….
One is enough to show what’s going on. Read the Dallas article. Look at the graphics of people pushing wheelbarrows of money from house to house. Wake up and smell the rampant.
BTW, my contact in Dallas ( a UHS) has been telling me of this stuff, and how it’s escalating, for months. House gets bought, slap some paint on it, sell for $150k more in two weeks.
Cockroach Theory, dude!
“House gets bought, slap some paint on it, sell for $150k more in two weeks.”
Have Fannie and Freddie done away with due diligence, or is taxpayer fudge packing the way forward?
‘Up, Down, Sideways? Making Sense of the Latest Home Sales Data’
By Jonathan Smoke
‘All factors that are critical for increasing sales have been evident this spring and summer. Stronger demand, driven by real growth in first-time buyers, has been driving the increases in sales over last year. Credit availability is wider, though it is just a slight improvement over last year. And while supply remains tight, we have seen growth in inventories of listings all spring and so far this summer.’
‘So don’t fret—the housing market remains hot. Trust us.’
‘So don’t fret—the housing market remains
hotradioactive. Trust us.’Trust them…. ok. Perhaps we should do that for a moment. Let’s start here…..
“NAR Sales Data Overstated”
http://www.reversereview.com/1-daily-news/3235-corelogic-nar-sales-data-overstated.html
The latest paid mouthpiece says “trust us” after they deliberately deceived the public and lied about demand every single month for 4 years straight?
I no more trust NAR than I do an “appraiser” or used car salesman.
Oh dear…
‘China’s manufacturing recorded no growth in July, in a sign of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, according to data released by an industry group on Saturday. The preliminary Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 48.2, down by 1.2 from June, although the official index won’t be released until Monday. Caixin, a Chinese media group, provides financial news services.’
‘Analyst Zhang Liqun said in the statement by the industry group that both overseas and domestic market demands were unstable and that factories lacked confidence as they reduced the stock of raw materials and were buying less.’
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-manufacturing-shows-zero-growth-july-034557908–finance.html
This China slowdown story is getting old. It was actually more entertaining when every post to document it was met with five more by AlbqDan to deny it.
So when are these fabled Chinese all-cash buyers going to panic sell their US real estate holdings?
Oh, what’s that you say? Stocks account for only 9% of household wealth in China? The kind of investor sophisticated and wealthy enough to purchase houses in the US might have enough cash to sustain a market crash?
Still waiting for that panic selling of US real estate… Or not.
‘The kind of investor sophisticated and wealthy enough to purchase houses in the US might have enough cash to sustain a market crash’
I’ve already posted accounts of Chinese panic selling or pulling out of deals in California and Australia. But the biggest problem isn’t that they’ll sell. It’s that they are overpaying and others are competing with them:
‘Already this year, Beijing-based insurance company Anbang, the same firm that agreed to buy the Waldorf Astoria Hotel on Park Avenue for nearly $2 billion last year, has ponied up an additional $415 million for a 26-story, trophy office building at 717 Fifth Avenue.’
‘And Fosun International, the Chinese conglomerate that bought downtown megalith One Chase Manhattan Plaza for $725 million last year with plans to rehabilitate and rebrand it as 28 Liberty St., is still in acquisition mode, buying a 50% stake in a residential development project at 15 E. 30th St.’
‘In many cases, the Chinese are paying a premium over what their domestic counterparts are willing to fork over. “They’re betting that it’s worth paying more for the highest-quality assets,” said Jeanette Rice, an economist at CBRE.’
http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/chinese-flooding-nyc-market-article-1.2309896
Then there’s this guy:
‘A cute and fluffy alpaca wearing a “for sale” sign around its neck appeared on the streets of Kunming city, Yunnan Province in China on July 28, attracting crowds of curious onlookers. The alpaca’s owner said he was trying to sell it since all of his investments have been trapped in the plunging Chinese stock market.’
“I hate to part with the alpaca, if it were not for an urgent need of money,” Mr. Fang said, adding that he and his family love the alpaca, which has stayed with them since it was young.’
‘But drastic fluctuations on the stock market have driven him into a corner. Selling the pet for cash is the last resort he can think of, after taking out a mortgage on the family’s house and car.’
http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/07/29/frustrated-chinese-investors-last-resort-selling-his-pet-alpaca
‘Christine Rudolph of Ray White New Farm said 30 to 40 per cent of her sales in the last six months had been to overseas Chinese — with Australian residency — mainly from Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore.’
‘She said some of her recent sales included 125 Crosby Road, Hamilton, which sold to buyers from Guangzhou after multiple offers over $2 million, 12006/8 Harbour Road, Hamilton, which sold to buyers based in Shanghai for $1.65 million, and 81 Markwell Street, Hamilton, which sold post-auction to a Sinaporean Chinese family for upwards of $3 million.’
“[The] father was from Singapore, arrived in Brisbane for the weekend and advised his family on the spot to buy the property,” she said.’
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/queensland-is-the-new-hot-spot-for-chinese-buyers-according-to-juwaicom/story-fndban6l-1227459227538
As was posted yesterday, the bust doesn’t destroy wealth.
‘Farmers from drought-parched California are finding greener pastures in the Pacific Northwest. And so are buyers from China.’
“We’re getting a lot of interest where they want to move out of California into Washington, Oregon and Idaho,” said John Knipe, president of Knipe Land Co. in Boise, Idaho. “Often they have to sell the California property to do that.”
“The first thing people ask about is the water when they’re looking to buy,” said Knipe, a broker who specializes in farm and ranch properties. “We especially get a lot of Californians asking that question. Some say, ‘My gosh it looks dry here, too.’ Certainly not as bad as California but some of this country is in a water shortage.”
‘Water concerns don’t appear to be slowing interest in the Northwest region’s farmland, however. “I personally don’t see any big change because of the drought up here,” said Kevin O’Rorke, a farmland and ranch property broker at NAI Tri-Cities in Kennewick, Washington. “Our ag prices are just going through the roof.”
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/californians-chinese-scooping-farmland-washington-state-n401841
This doesn’t mean Chinese buyers are leaving the US en masse - it suggests they’re leaving California because of the extreme drought. They’re just driving up prices in the Pacific Northwest instead.
What it does mean is they’re heading back to familial places. Namely Asia where their families are. Human migration patterns never change.
‘This doesn’t mean Chinese buyers are leaving the US en masse’
They don’t live here. They’re Chinese, and some are laundering money. Some are speculating, some are not real.
Remember the Canadian condo sales office that got caught having their employees pretend to be Chinese investors?
With bubbles, there is often a bit of truth behind each rational. But it doesn’t much matter how much truth; it will be magnified, relied on by others to spur the mania. Arizonans could see their land being worth more because Californians might, and those Californians are loaded, let me tell you!
It’s the “driving up prices” that is the wealth destroyer. The bust is just how the fools find out.
“They don’t live here.”
Tell that to my chain-smoking Chinese neighbor! We have to keep the door shut at night to keep the smoke out.
“Often they have to sell the California property to do that.”
FOR SALE: Farmland so parched that Russian Thistle won’t grow. Hurry up… won’t last!
It’s already happening.
‘The Chinese sharemarket correction and tightening of local banks’ lending to overseas investors could slow foreign investment in Australian property markets, according to property specialists. Andrew Fawell, director of the Beller Group, a diversified property group with offices in Shanghai selling Australian property to Chinese investors, said there is anecdotal evidence some investments could be axed because buyers have suffered heavy losses on China’s bourses.’
“Reports are coming in of investors claiming they have lost all their capital on the stock market and cannot go through with the deal,” Mr Fawell said. “The Australian market has to be braced for unexpected events.”
‘Westpac, the largest lender to overseas investors, is clamping down on offshore investors wanting to buy residential property. Its broker distribution division is writing to mortgage brokers identified as having a “higher percentage” of property lending to people not resident in Australia and asking that future applicants have an Australian residential address.’
‘Brokers claim it is targeting Chinese buyers, who have been spending billions on residential property, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.’
‘The major banks and AMP Bank are tightening investor lending by raising interest rates, lowering loan-to-value ratios and ruling out some income, such as bonuses, when assessing an applicant’s ability to repay a loan.’
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/chinese-buyers-squeezed-by-sharemarket-crash-and-banks-20150729-gimryr
So these investors are “sophisticated and wealthy enough to purchase house”, but they are borrowing the money?
‘The deteriorating Chinese environment is also forcing companies to think harder about credit risks.’
‘Swedish lockmaker Assa Abloy Abs Chinese unit is heavily exposed to the hard-hit construction industry. Chief Financial Officer Carolina Happe said the time it took for Assas Chinese customers to pay had increased by a month in the past year, to 99 days. That compares to a group average of 55 days. The change could lead to increased bad debt provisions, she said.’
‘Volvo issued a warning to investors last year that it would have to take a 650 million Swedish Crown ($75 million) charge for expected credit losses in China. Gurander told investors in mid July his company was having tough discussions with dealers about outstanding debts but it was hard to know if the situation was stabilising or not.’
‘Growing credit risks are also prompting some Western banks to rethink their exposure to China. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of Swiss-based UBS AG , said it had stopped lending money to onshore clients in China.’
http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/reuters/news/258656
‘The optimism at the Rise technology conference here in Hong Kong is palpable. Hundreds of booths have been set up by start-ups hailing from all over Asia. And they’re all after one thing: piquing an investor’s interest to raise funds, so they can turn into the next Asian Facebook or Uber.’
‘Asia has become the new playground for investors looking to find the next big start-up. In the past 12 months, more than $30bn (£19bn) has been pumped into this sector - a jump of 45% on the year before, according to a recent report from the auditing group KPMG.’
‘But with the recent turmoil in Chinese shares, some experts are now warning the sector is in for a nasty shock. Peng T Ong co-founded the popular US dating site match.com. He is one of the pioneers of the global tech boom. He spends most of his time investing in companies in China - but now he’s getting concerned.’
“China’s valuations have been pretty much on the high side,” he told the BBC. “It leads me to believe that there’s some kind of bubble going on - just like there was in the US.”
“China’s tech valuations in the past year look a lot like what happened in the US in the late 90s,” US venture capitalist Dave McClure told me. “There’s a lot of private individuals in Beijing borrowing on margin to bet on the stock market, and lots of folks hoping for the next Alibaba or Xiaomi betting on start-ups - that’s what’s driving the crazy valuations.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33747058
‘A cute and fluffy alpaca wearing a “for sale” sign around its neck appeared on the streets of Kunming city, Yunnan Province in China on July 28, attracting crowds of curious onlookers. The alpaca’s owner said he was trying to sell it since all of his investments have been trapped in the plunging Chinese stock market.’
This is precious: The poor guy had to sell his Alpaca to cover his stock market margin call.
The report says he couldn’t sell. Price too high.
Underwater alpaca…tragic!
Alpaca stew.
So when are these fabled Chinese all-cash buyers going to panic sell their US real estate holdings?
If they move here to escape Chinese prison or worse, an executioner, maybe never.
Like Ben said, they’re not here anyways.
There’s no inventory anywhere … Were people living in cardboard boxes? The lack of inventory makes no sense
4,088 properties found Dallas, TX Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Dallas_TX/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
1,230 properties found Dallas, TX Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Dallas_TX/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
5,364 properties found Austin, TX Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Austin_TX/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
1,836 properties found Austin, TX Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Austin_TX/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
Austin, TX Housing Prices Fall 6%; Inventory Up 57%
http://www.movoto.com/austin-tx/market-trends/
Price Reductions 543 472 639 748 881 1,054 1,256
New Listings 1,197 1,298 1,668 1,877 1,831 1,803 1,965
Drove the 35minutes to Carmel to relax on the beach this past Tuesday. I haven’t seen so many for sale signs in a long, long time. Now that property values have increased I think many are trying to bail which they are close to even. Tourist season is in full swing so maybe they hope to snag a few.
The down side to Carmel: houses are old, have mold due to all the marine layer moisture, virtually no parking, under windy conditions large pine cones falling dent the cars or under normal conditions you collect a lot of pine tar and sea gull droppings, sea air rust under carriages of cars, too many tourists spoil the mornings from 10 am until after 5 pm in the evening.
That’s right! Carmel is terrible! Just terrible. Please don’t move here there.
Thanks for the Intel Salinasron. I haven’t been there since last year. Maybe I’ll go look.
‘Despite a steady increase in home sales and prices, a large share of Ohio and Dayton-area homeowners remain “seriously underwater,” or owe significantly more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.’
‘Two in 10 homeowners in the Dayton area owed at least 25 percent more on their loans — including first and second mortgages — than the value of their homes, according to RealtyTrac for the past three months.’
“We just had the best month on record for home sales and prices in June, but the problem is that a lot of people who have built up equity in their homes have gone back out and refinanced their houses to get more money out of it,” said Ralph Mantica, president of the Dayton Area Board of Realtors. “They’re not reinvesting that money back into their homes to add value. Instead, they’re buying a new car or a vacation. That’s what got us into trouble in the first place.”
‘Existing home sales in the Dayton area spiked 22 percent in June, and the average sales price hit a record high of $152,975.’
‘But averages can be skewed by sales of higher priced homes and don’t necessarily reflect price gains across the board, and those homeowners struggling to build equity are less likely to put there homes up for sale and add to the transactions the housing market thrives on, Mantica said.’
“They can’t participate in the market because they don’t have any place to go without losing money selling their home,” he said. “But people are still out there in large numbers buying homes. There would probably be more people out there if some weren’t underwater, but it’s not hampering the market.”
http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/large-share-of-local-homeowners-have-underwater-mo/nm975/
I mentioned this the other day, it’s happening across the country:
‘a lot of people who have built up equity in their homes have gone back out and refinanced their houses to get more money out of it’
Double dear!
‘Could the scandal at Home Capital just be the beginning? The Canadian alternative mortgage company halted its shares after it was revealed that some of its brokers had been falsifying information on the income of mortgage customers.’
‘As the soaring housing markets in Alberta and Saskatchewan go off the boil, a gradual weakening in Canada’s roaring real estate business may reveal more irregularities in the market.’
‘It is a phenomenon we have seen happen so frequently that the uncovering of scandal in a market is often seen as a cause rather than a symptom of a market’s decline. Sometimes they go hand in hand.’
‘On a conference call yesterday Home Capital CEO Gerald Soloway insisted that the problem with its brokers was not an indication of a mortgage fraud crisis across Canada. Home Capital’s delinquencies remain low, and the company says it has stopped doing business with the brokers that investigators had shown to be pretending customers’ income qualified them for mortgages.’
‘It is hard to draw a direct line of cause and effect between the first few scandals in a weakening market and that weakening.
But as markets get into trouble, more and more accounts get shuffled off to the riskier end of the business. Pressure to succeed intensifies. People trying to make a living are more willing to take shortcuts. And it is only as the markets weaken that shortcuts — or outright fraud — are revealed.’
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/home-capital-scandal-may-presage-a-slowdown-don-pittis-1.3173990
‘Canada’s economy shrank for a fifth straight month in May, increasing the possibility the country has fallen into a technical recession. But a handful of economic bright spots defy the broader declines.’
‘Real gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in May versus economists’ expectation for zero growth. Weakness in manufacturing, mining, wholesale trade, and energy extraction underscored the downward trend just one month before Canadians will know if the economy is truly in a recession.’
“Perhaps what makes this decline in GDP most troubling is there were some real areas of strength. We saw a relatively strong consumer spending number. We saw a strong construction number. We saw a very robust real estate number as well,” Doug Porter, BMO Capital Markets chief economist tells BNN.’
‘Porter calls the strength in housing “the surprise of the year,” estimating builders will break ground on 190,000 homes by the end of 2015, a figure he expects to taper in 2016. He also credits Canadian consumers for pulling the economy along when a weak loonie would suggest spending should underperform.’
‘Jimmy Jean, senior economist at Desjardins Securities, says May’s GDP number is reason to believe more declines are on the horizon in the near term. He is now calling for one percent negative growth in the second quarter.’
“Up until this point, I thought it was too early to call it a recession. I thought that we just hadn’t seen the breadth,” said Porter. “I think there is almost no doubt, well almost no doubt at this point, that we are looking at two quarters of negative GDP. That wasn’t obvious from before the May numbers started coming in. It’s pretty obvious now.”
‘Desjardins’ Jean says while Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland will continue to suffer from the impact of weak oil prices through the end of the year, with little hope of a non-energy-based prop up from Ontario and Quebec, the Canadian economy is unlikely to see a lasting recession in the way the dreaded “R” word is commonly understood.’
“It doesn’t mean we won’t see a reversal at some point, but for the moment it seems we are still in the heart of it,” said Jean.’
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/7/31/Canadas-economy-shrank-in-May-fifth-straight-monthly-decline.aspx
‘technical recession’
I’m still utterly confused by the ‘technical’ qualifier. Is there another type of recession which is ‘nontechnical’?
One where it’s more thant obvious that the economy is in the tank, but the official numbers say that it isn’t a “recession”?
‘Canada’s economy shrank for a fifth straight month in May, …’
What would make it official?
Two quarters of declining GDP. In other words, one more month and it is “official”.
“Is there another type of recession which is ‘nontechnical’?”
Isn’t that when you lose your job?
‘The dog days of summer are typically characterized by a bit of a lull in home sales. But not like this. The last few weeks have been too quiet when it comes to activity, pending sales and even refinances.’
‘Go look outside your front door when you get done sipping your morning coffee. With the exception of the starter market, say $550,000 or less, there are a lot more for sale signs dotting our O.C. neighborhoods with fewer pending and sold signs.’
‘Besides wonderings from realty agents and complaints from industry cohorts along with my whining, there is some statistical data that seems to support a sea change in activity.’
‘Most important of all, as inventory levels climb in this end-of-summer season, and with many sellers being unrealistic by overpricing their properties (reportedly by my real agent informants), it’s not going to be too hard to find some motivated sellers.’
http://www.ocregister.com/lansner/percent-674839-year-fixed.html
10,212 properties found Orange County, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Orange-County_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
3,596 properties found Orange County, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Orange-County_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
3,087 properties found San Diego, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/San-Diego_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
1,005 properties found San Diego, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/San-Diego_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
With everything being snapped up and all, I can’t understand why so many loanowners are cutting prices. Maybe somebody’s a lion?
Cecil is apparently alive and well in U.S. housing circles.
“3,087 properties found San Diego, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale”
I recall in the pre-2008 period when San Diego inventory topped out at over 20,000, which still struck me as abysmally low for county with 3+ million population. But the current level is at the low end of the range since I started watching over a decade ago, suggesting transient non-fundamental factors at work.
Was that 20k number greater SD?
‘For custom homes at a great value in Coastal North County, Thunderbird Estates has seven move-in ready homes featuring a first-floor master suite, guest suite on the second level and a chef’s dream kitchen. On a large lot with extensive storage options, these four- and five-bedroom homes have other features including air conditioning, drought resistant landscaping, no Mello Roos, a builder’s 10-year structural warranty and numerous upgrades throughout. Visit Thunderbird Estates at 691 Thunderbird Drive in Oceanside to discover money-saving closing cost incentives.’
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/jul/25/summer-new-homes-news-part-1/
I believe so. I.e. it included locales in San Diego County such as Poway which lie outside the SD city limits.
Not sure about northern extremes like Fallbrook.
“3,087 properties found San Diego, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale”
There were 1768 sales in San Diego city in June. The median price was up 5.9%. Doesn’t seem very distressed.
There were 4,467 sales in San Diego county (includes the city) in June. The median price was $476,000, up 5.8% from last year.
Again, it does not seem very distressed.
Are you sure about that Jingle_Fraud? How about some data my friend.
San Diego, CA Housing Demand Falls Two Years Straight
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
“‘Buyer’s remorse sets in,’ McCarty says. ‘They start to wonder: ‘Have I overpaid? Did I agree to too many things?’ But another buyer stepped in, offering nearly the same terms. And the process continued.”
If this possibility concerns you, I have some very simple advice to offer:
1) Don’t buy now.
2) Wait until everyone you know insists that you would have to be crazy to buy a home, as doing so would be a sure way to lose money.
3) Meanwhile, save your money and get your household balance sheet into fighting shape in preparation for the next recession.
4) If your job survives the next recession and your savings level leaves you feeling financially secure, this is a sign that you, personally, should consider buying when the rest of the U.S. economy is on its back, and homes are on sale.
If things go to hell I think they’ll evict renters who don’t pay long before anyone evicts homeowners who owe some big bank far away.
the bad part is the courts gets so clogged up it could be 3-4-6 months before you can see a judge…….
but here in NYC here is a fast track eviction all the landlord has to do is ask for possession of the apartment and eat the rent loss legal court fees,, most times you get a hearing in as little as 2 weeks….
but landlords are super greedy and wont allow a tenant to leave without paying so it winds us months or even years of aggravation
“Maybe somebody’s a lion?”
Realtors lie? It couldn’t be!
‘The local housing market appears to be on the mend. Current market conditions, low interest rates, builder incentives, and buyers’ perspectives are pushing up the housing market, real estate broker Andrea Santos said.’
‘Currently, Visalia city officials are reporting an uptick in permitting, including permits for single-family homes and the review of plans for a dozen subdivisions. If numbers hold up for the second half of the year, 2015 will register the highest number of single-family home permits given out in Visalia in seven years.’
‘In Visalia, the city’s building department reported 262 single-family home permits have been issued over in the first six months of 2015. The 15 permits for multi-family construction is the highest this decade and is just two shy of the last four years combined.’
‘Also up are the reviews for subdivisions. Young, who said there were no subdivision reviews in his first four years with, said there 12 currently under review. The subdivisions under review average 60 homes per subdivision, which could mean 620 homes could be built in next year, Young said.’
http://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/news/local/2015/07/28/local-housing-market-trending/30769175/
Builder incentives?
‘Many homebuilders are increasing incentives to drive volumes as the competitive environment heats up. Higher incentives and cost inflation amid moderating price increases are hurting homebuilders’ margins. Most homebuilders expect increased cost and pricing pressure in 2015 - the major headwinds to the housing industry.’
‘Low oil prices can affect consumer confidence and eventually slow down the economy and thereby home demand in an energy driven state like Texas. Lennar witnessed slower order growth in its Houston segment in both quarters of the first half - mainly across higher price points - hinting at a slowdown in Houston’s economy. Pulte Group, Inc. ( PHM ) also witnessed some slowing demand trends in Texas/Houston particularly at higher price points.’
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/zacks-industry-outlook-highlights-lennar-kb-home-dr-horton-pulte-group-and-meritage-homes-press-releases-cm498762#ixzz3hb8ue3Kh
http://www.fischerhomes.com/seasonkickoffsale/
*Season Kickoff Sales Event pricing subject to change without notice. No other incentives or discounts apply.
Sales Event pricing available 8/1/2015 - 8/31/2015.
One example:
Cost To Build:
$767,990
Incentive Price:
- $679,990
Savings
$88,000
1967 Forestview Lane DELAWARE, OH 43015
http://www.columbianewhomesdirectory.com/news/
ONLY 4 HOMES REMAIN at Hastings Point by Crown Communities, the premiere location in Richland County. We have completed homes that are MOVE IN READY, plus, get up to $18,000 IN BUYER INCENTIVES. Make your move now and be in your new home before the start of the new school year! Hastings Point in Columbia, SC offers estate-style new homes on huge wooded sites with quick access to I-20 and I-77 and just minutes to downtown. Tranquil living with big city convenience!
New homes in Visalia? New water connections in the hot dry valley not far from the epicenter of the drought… what a great idea! Let’s stress the aquifer even more!
‘If Mike Huckabee’s luck is anything like Donald Trump’s, the latest price cut on his Arkansas home will do the trick. Both have been trying to unload homes for two years. Trump’s penthouse in Manhattan finally went for $21 million after he dropped the price earlier this month.’
‘Huckabee’s home outside Little Rock has a new price, too: $674,900. He paid $525,000 for the home in 2006, and first listed it in 2013, after reportedly building a $3-million mansion in Florida. The Arkansas listing has been off and on the market since then, starting at $850,000.’
http://buildrealty.net/mike-huckabee-drops-the-price-on-his-little-rock-listing/
‘Land for sale in Princeton, MA - Aug 01, 2015 - 16 Current MLS Listings.’
‘$84,900 PRICE CUT BY $20K by MOTIVATED SELLER! What a Great value, just look at the assessment and comparable lots! Come find your future Home on a Western Princeton Hilltop’
‘PRICE CUT TO LESS THAN 100K Discover a big beautiful lot high on the side of Mt Wachusett.’
‘PRICE CUT TO LESS THAN $100K! What a Great value, just look at the assessment and comparable lots! Discover a big beautiful lot high on the side of Mt Wachusett.’
‘$174,900 PRICE CUT! COME MAKE A DEAL! What a Great value, just look at the assessment and comparable lots!’
‘$460,000 MOTIVATED SELLER! PRICE CUT AGAIN BY $80K ! 8 dramatic lots possible or 6 frontage Lots.’
http://www.homesforsaleinma.com/Princeton/land
Seattle, WA Housing Prices Fall 15%
http://www.zillow.com/ballard-seattle-wa/home-values/
3,526 properties found Sacramento, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Sacramento_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
806 properties found Sacramento, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Sacramento_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
2,110 properties found Bakersfield, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Bakersfield_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
759 properties found Bakersfield, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Bakersfield_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
Bakersfield has about the same percentage reduced as Midland Texas.
269 properties found Santa Cruz, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Santa-Cruz_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
71 properties found Santa Cruz, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Santa-Cruz_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
1,132 properties found Palm Desert, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Palm-Desert_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
459 properties found Palm Desert, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Palm-Desert_CA/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
Palm Desert is slightly worse than Midland.
Where would you like to retire?
An old folks home/skilled nursing care facility. The same place everyone else retires to.
Where would you like to retire?
Right where I live…Silicon Valley…
I am already there. I live in a toe tag house in the Sierra foothills.
Same with my retired relatives in Sunnyvale. They have lived there since the 1970s so are under Prop. 13 property tax limits, and they have oranges, lemons, limes, avocados, and olives growing in their back yard.
It’s that bad they can’t afford a chain saw?
‘Stock markets across the Middle East fell on Sunday after oil prices dropped again and Saudi Arabia, heavily influenced by the petrochemicals sector, led losses, hitting a four-month low.’
‘The main Saudi index sank 3.2 percent to 8,807 points, its biggest daily loss since late March, with nearly all stocks in the red. Petrochemicals giant Saudi Basic Industries tumbled 3.9 percent. The company’s profits have been hurt by the drop in oil prices over the last 12 months, and the commodity’s fresh weakness is a concern for investors.’
‘U.S. crude posted its biggest monthly drop - 21 percent - since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday after a string of losses in July triggered by China’s stock market slump and signs that top Middle East producers were pumping crude at record levels. Brent lost 5 percent on the week and 18 percent on the month.’
‘Other companies in the petrochemicals industry also fell sharply, and the sector’s index was down 4.4 percent. Red Sea Housing Services tumbled to its daily 10 percent limit after second-quarter profit dropped 58 percent on lower sales and margins and the firm announced delays in the implementation of some projects.’
‘Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance & Reinsurance Co was also down 10 percent after swinging to a loss in the second quarter, which it blamed on higher claims.’
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/02/mideast-markets-wrap-idUSL5N10D0H720150802
The next election determines the fate of the country???.. (really read on) If Dodd-Frank and 40% capital gains with little reduction in downsizing the Gov. under the Dems than look for the greatest of all depressions maybe.
If a really free market returns with banks and savings and loans back in the saddle, corp tax incentives and smaller Gov. under the GOP. look for wealth more even,distributed, seniors more upbeat and properous but inflation running away with generation x not to happy with such higher cost across the board maybe that word again.
What is the old saying pick your poison, basically folks, large number of people no matter who gets elected are going to remain wounded. You see the massive 2007-2008 sub- prime and basic collaspe of the ecomony was so massive recovery is not measured in 10 years, I believe the damage may be generations and nobody in Wash wants to adress it because nobody wants to me told they we as a country are progressing to late stage 4 cancer?
There is no inflation my friend. There’s plenty of price fixing and collapsing demand though.
Los Gatos, CA Housing Prices Fall 26%; Inventory Up 81%
http://www.movoto.com/los-gatos-ca/market-trends/
‘Finding a house is the last hurdle for many buyers who have saved a down payment and gotten pre-approved for a mortgage,…’
Why do used home sales people enjoy yammering endlessly about nonexistent categories of buyers?