August 6, 2015

A Train Wreck In Slow Motion

The Province reports from Canada. “Vancouver International Airport is the major port of entry for millions in hidden cash being smuggled into North America by mostly Chinese citizens, a federal document investigation by The Province reveals. And according to money laundering investigators, the amounts identified in Canada Border Service Agency cash seizure data, obtained by The Province under freedom of information law, is only the tip of the iceberg. ‘A lot of the illicit money coming into Canada from Chinese citizens is laundered through real estate in Vancouver,’ Hayley Labbé, a senior forensic investigator with the firm MNP LLP, told The Province.”

“B.C.-based fraud investigation executive Kim Marsh said he recently started work on a new case involving a Chinese man who absconded with $450 million in corruption money and has been laundering it in Vancouver for a number of years. Marsh said he is uncovering numerous Lower Mainland real estate assets that the suspect purchased with his stolen fortune. ‘This guy is just one of many,’ Marsh said. ‘The evidence is mounting of a lot of grey money coming into Vancouver’s real estate market from China. So we have some serious issues in Vancouver and we need more deterrents. The money seized at YVR is a good example. You pay a pittance of a fine, and it is worth the risk.’”

“Several real estate industry sources have informed The Province they suspect colleagues are turning a blind eye — or even in some cases participating in illegal schemes. However, these professionals say they fear speaking on the record because they could be blackballed by peers, or accused of racism. ‘The people buying these multi-million-dollar properties here in Greater Vancouver don’t care what the asking price is,’ one experienced realtor said. ‘Some are corrupt government officials and insiders, and all they want to do is get the money out of China and use Vancouver to launder the money.’”

The Ottawa Sun. “Whispers of a buyers’ market in Ottawa — unseen in more than a decade in a city once considered recession-proof — are now growing to a roar, in another case where the reality on the ground flies in the face of everything the experts are saying. Martin Elder started selling houses when you could still find a decent home in a nice neighbourhood for under $20,000. ‘It is a buyers’ market, we’re definitely in it,’ says Elder. ‘I have clients in the military, and they were looking at buying in the $500,000 range in the south part of the city a month ago — there were 28 nearly identical properties for them to choose from. When he found a property that pleased him, the seller brought the price down by roughly $30,000.’”

“Another client was recently searching for homes in the Metcalfe area. ‘We had our pick of the conditions — upgrades to the septic tank, fix this, fix that — and the seller did it all, and they knew they had to meet the buyer’s needs.’”

The Western Wheel. “Plummeting oil prices in the fall of 2014 have left Okotoks to deal with an unpredictable – but stable - buyers’ market. In Okotoks, the market is flooded with homes priced between $500,000 to $600,000, providing potential buyers with a number of options in that price range and allowing them to take their time in making decisions. ‘Buyers are able to be picky right now,’ said Evan Perry, realtor with Century 21 Foothills Real Estate. ‘They aren’t pulling the trigger because there’s a lot to consider.’”

The Cold Lake Sun. “As the economy continues to suffer, housing prices in the Cold Lake area continue to fall. If you’re buying a home, it’s good news. But if you’re trying to sell your home, it can be very frustrating. ‘It’s destroyed,’ said resident Dan Kunstmann, who’s been trying to sell his house for a while. Kunstmann says council should shoulder some of the blame for the drop in home prices. ‘They have to see into the future,’ Kunstmann said. ‘You can’t keep building uncontrolled. Even if they looked back into the past, it’s always up and down, pretty drastically.’”

“Kunstmann’s home is one of the 370 currently for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in the city alone. Expanding the search to the surrounding rural area adds dozens more. ‘Our house is for sale and we haven’t had a showing in two months,’ Kunstmann said. His house has been on the market since last spring.”

“In addition to all the new construction, Patti Oulette of RE/MAX Cold Lake said some of the supply is former rental housing owners are trying to sell off. ‘People bought houses because of JD driver coming in, which gave us a false market … because they were only here temporarily,’ she said. ‘So a lot of what’s on the market is people that have been transferred and had to leave their house empty, and people who bought those houses and can’t keep both now that there’s no one to rent them.’”

From The Tyee. “Economists, an irrational tribe of short-sighted mathematicians, are now calling Canada’s declining economic fortunes ‘a perfect storm.’ It seems to be the only weather that complex market economies generate these days, or maybe such things are just another face of globalization. But this unique perfect storm gets darker. China, which Harperites eagerly embraced as the globe’s autocratic growth locomotive, has run out of steam.”

“As the country’s notorious industrial revolution unwinds, China’s stock market has imploded. Communist party cadres are now moving their money to foreign housing markets in places like Vancouver.”

“Years ago I warned Canadians and Tyee readers that bitumen would not make us a superpower, or pave our streets with gold. It is a train wreck in slow motion that will surely immolate innocent bystanders. The Uruguayan journalist Eduardo Galeano once wrote that ‘History never really says goodbye. History says, ‘See you later.’ It also says: I told you so.”




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64 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 03:23:30

If you have time please read the Province article in full. I don’t know why this isn’t on the front page of every paper in Canada, or the US. Hey Vancouver Sun, yeah I’m talking to YOU!

Comment by Overtaxed
2015-08-06 05:37:05

The bubble in Vancouver is beyond anything we hit in the US, IMHO. And the bubble in greater Canada might be bigger still. At least Vancouver does have things going for it. When I watch the RE shill shows selling homes “60 miles outside of Podunk, CA” my jaw just drops. 500/sq/ft for something that looks like a trailer home? 1000/sq/ft for something with nice mountain views that’s 800 miles from the nearest airport? I mean, what the heck, did they legalize weed in Canada and not tell anyone? :)

News flash Canadians. Your country is one of the least populated (in people per sq/mile) in the entire known universe. It’s cold. It’s not that pretty in most spots (Banff excepted!). Land in Canada should be selling for 1000/acre in most locations, not a million per 5000 sq/ft lot. It’s just lunacy. And Canada will eventually pay the price for this, it’s just a matter of when. Even if they manage to keep their homes at a “permanently high plateau”, they will see their birth rates drop dramatically (already happening) and their younger people leave the country (probably to the US) to have a shot at a better life. This, in turn, will freeze their economy even further. So, great, you live in a 1 million dollar home that’s 800 sq/ft overlooking the Vancouver trash dump. Too bad you can’t find anyone to sell it to. And, of course, you need to live in the frozen tundra for 6-8 months of the year.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 06:57:07

“Land in Canada should be selling for 1000/acre in most locations”

Its that price in so many areas…. and its overpriced even at $500 per acre……. and not selling.

 
Comment by Dman
2015-08-06 07:25:08

They’re not living on a hilltop surrounded by flames like they are in sunny California, either.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-06 07:48:06

“Several real estate industry sources have informed The Province they suspect colleagues are turning a blind eye — or even in some cases participating in illegal schemes. However, these professionals say they fear speaking on the record because they could be blackballed by peers, or accused of racism. ‘The people buying these multi-million-dollar properties here in Greater Vancouver don’t care what the asking price is,’ one experienced realtor said. ‘Some are corrupt government officials and insiders, and all they want to do is get the money out of China and use Vancouver to launder the money.’”
_____________________________/

Foreign criminals? Local officials in on it? You don’t say. I bet some customs people at the airport, and politicians, are driving new luxury automobiles. It’s all good!

Here’s some more from that piece:

“One seizure in June 2012 stands out. According to CBSA documents, an unidentified Chinese man failed to declare $177,500 in cash tucked into the lining of his suitcase and hidden in his clothing and wallet.

After he was caught with hidden rolls of Canadian and U.S. cash, the Chinese man told a CBSA agent that he intended to buy a house or car with the money. Although Chinese citizens are restricted by their government from removing any cash greater than $50,000 per individual each year — and the case raises red flags, according to money laundering experts — the man walked out of Vancouver airport with every cent of his hidden cash, minus a $2,500 fine.”

Another one:

“And even China’s strict capital controls can be legally avoided through coercion or use of family members. She said in one case a Chinese businessman forced nearly 200 employees to each transfer $50,000 to his Vancouver bank account, all within several days.

‘He bought a $7-million mansion in Vancouver and had some spending money left over,’ Duhaime said.”

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-06 04:10:22

“As the country’s notorious industrial revolution unwinds, China’s stock market has imploded. Communist party cadres are now moving their money to foreign housing markets in places like Vancouver.”

In the Bits Bucket I posted an article that claims the CCP has already pumped in over $1 million in stock market support. Is it perfectly fine with the Chinese government if a large amount of China’s money is repatriated to Vancouver?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-06 04:22:09

$1 trillion (need coffee soon!)

 
Comment by Dman
2015-08-06 07:28:05

It’s Chinese government officials who are repatriating their money to Vancouver, and their spoiled little kids too.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2015-08-06 18:02:06

The question is why aren’t they staying in the Utopian paradise of their own creation?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-06 04:21:06

‘A Wall Street short seller sums up the mess better than the mathematicians. “You have a resource economy that’s been blown apart sitting on top of a housing bubble,” Marc Cohodes told Maclean’s magazine. “That’s a toxic mix.”‘

I’m surprised the short seller doesn’t describe the situation as ‘an investment opportunity.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 04:39:32

‘It’s destroyed,’ said resident Dan Kunstmann, who’s been trying to sell his house for a while…’Our house is for sale and we haven’t had a showing in two months’

‘So a lot of what’s on the market is people that have been transferred and had to leave their house empty, and people who bought those houses and can’t keep both now that there’s no one to rent them’

Yeah and the foreclosures haven’t even started. The whining should really pick up from here.

It sucks but I for one tried to warn them. I told the Globe & Mail it looked like money laundering. I’m way the hell down here and I could see that and a bunch of you did too. Note that the article says the money is getting into the US too. Heck, it’s all over the world, we know that.

Oh well, I told a Calgary magazine in 2007 that resources make a real estate bubble worse, not better. Now you get the double whammy of having China run your house prices up and then tanking your economy. Told ya!

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-06 04:53:55

I’m quite astonished by the sizable number of blind fools who are able to make a living as journalists or bankers.

Comment by BetterRenter
2015-08-10 02:09:26

It’s because they aren’t blind or foolish… they saw enough and knew enough to determine which professions relied on the blind foolishness of the general public. You can’t go wrong with you bet that the public is dumb.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 04:56:58

‘The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate two weeks ago to nearly record lows, now just 0.5 per cent. In the face of an oil shock and other weakness, monetary policy is expected to do the heavy lifting of beating an economic funk. The move reflects a poverty of economic policy from the ruling Conservatives and much of the political class.’

‘Harper has been adamant that Canada’s downturn — now very likely a recession, about which his own finance minister remains in denial — is the result of global forces. There’s nothing that can be done to counteract a host of external problems but to button down. The best a government can hope for is to maintain a fabled fiscal discipline.’

‘What remains is for lower interest rates to keep feeding construction booms and real estate bubbles across Canada. A post on the FT’s Alphaville blog makes this point, warning that this latest rate cut will only aggravate what everyone including the OECD and the Bank of Canada describe as an “overvalued” market. On the other hand, there’s still enough capital sloshing around the world that this strategy might work for a few more rounds. Canada’s more stringent laws have so far contributed to slowing more explosive bubble growth.’

‘Meanwhile, the oil boom is over for now, the industry in hibernation. So I suppose we can now look forward to hearing more about the feared zero lower bound, secular stagnation and the like, all familiar from economic discourse elsewhere in the global North.’

‘After years as the darling of the advanced economies, Canada today lacks an “enlightened wing” of its elite to buttress the economy.’

‘In the U.S., this role was played by Fed, which through its QE program helped revive post-crash U.S. capitalism and Canada’s along with it. Now the QE taps are off south of the border and while the U.S. is growing — slowly and without much growth in the incomes of workers but growing — Canada has most likely entered into a recession all of its own.’

‘The government is prepared to blame the world and fall back on austerity, while the Bank of Canada can only pump more money into a bubble.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-06 06:56:35

The Loonie has dropped from parity to 76 cents. I don’t see many Canadian ensigns on NY waters this season.

Comment by Dman
2015-08-06 07:30:48

There won’t be too many Canadian house buyers in Phoenix of Las Vegas either.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 07:51:50

There’s plenty of sellers.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 08:06:53

The Canadians are net sellers now, in Arizona and Florida.

Going back to the distressed sale situation I was discussing with oxide the other day. If I happen to know a sellers is from Alberta, what would I do? I know he might need the money. He might even be in a really tough spot. When negotiating, how would this come into play. I’m going to assume he’s distressed. I’m going to low ball him so that he’s hopping mad. I’ll walk away from his counter offer. Watch him lower the price and then offer even less than before. And if I get it under contract, do the inspection and lower the offer even more based on flaws I find. Impossible? I did it last year in a 1031 exchange to one out of country fool.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 08:09:32

“I’m going to low ball him so that he’s hopping mad. I’ll walk away from his counter offer. Watch him lower the price and then offer even less than before. And if I get it under contract, do the inspection and lower the offer even more based on flaws I find.”

There it is. This is how negotiations are done everyday. Especially in the construction biz. Step 2 and 3 is key.

 
Comment by Dman
2015-08-06 09:02:55

Hopefully you’ll be able to do the same thing to runaway Chinese officials someday.

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-08-06 12:44:04

Tag team him. Get somebody to just insult the hell out him, and play bad cop. Then you show up the next day and commiserate with him… but you only have x dollars to spend, and you are really amazed and humbled by his house….

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-08-06 14:07:08

That’s what I did w Countrywide, BofA and two local banks in 2008-2010. If they didn’t respond orcountered, I submitted a lower offer 3-6 months later.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 14:24:44

And you still paid too much Jingle_Fraud. That explains why you’re under water.

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-06 09:52:23

I was looking back in Feb at a 2/2 in Scottsdale Ranch - nice unit in a mature community - French lady was selling it and when I looked at it already had it discounted some 10% from orig. list - this after being on the market for a month. No takers up to the time I was looking. No idea where this is at today. Last I heard in late April - it was still on the market for even less of an ask.
Euro folks and Canucks are getting nervous down there in AZ right?

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Comment by doom
2015-08-06 12:41:45

rj yes they are, and for me I could care less about these folks.

Arrogant prigs cam to Las Vegas and Phoenix with their “the color is not right so I will offer you 100k less”.

Now we will go to Canada walk into a open house and tell them “your weather is for you know what” and offer 50% lower.
Of course we would never ever buy South or North of any border, but the old saying, what goes around comes around?

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-06 07:53:38

The Fed is an “enlightened elite”? Capitalism has been revived in the United States? Surely the author jests, on both points. We’re in the middle of a dis-enlightenment and cronyism fest that feels like the last act before some kind of curtain falls.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:05:51

So what if the Chinese spend money on our houses, you say? It’s what happens next:

‘The case of 45 mortgage brokers facing suspension in the wake of allegedly falsifying documents is leading industry players to call for more ethics-based broker training.’

“I think they need to work more on the ethics side when it comes to licensing,” Walid Hammami, a Montreal-based broker with Dominion Lending Centres told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “Most of these guys feel pressure to get clients and compromise themselves as a result; they are under pressure and want to make money as fast as possible.”

‘Home Capital announced Thursday it had severed ties with 18 independent brokers and two brokerages – a total of 45 brokers – after an investigation pointed to falsified information about borrowers’ income.’

Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-06 13:17:11

“Ethics” and “mortgage broker” (or any other RE-related title) don’t belong in the same sentence.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:08:22

Another bubble and money-laundering center:

‘A weaker-than-expected profit from ANZ and its $3 billion capital raising have sparked a massive selloff of shares in the banking sector. ANZ’S cash profit rose to $5.4 billion in the nine months to June 30, putting it on track for a record $7.2 billion annual profit. But the nine-month windfall fell short of market expectations.’

“The fact that they are two to three per cent under what the market was expecting, the reaction to that has been pretty savage,” IG market strategist Evan Lucas said. “That has hit the other banks pretty hard, because this is a shock to see ANZ’s revenue and cash net profit a lot further under than what was expected.”

‘ANZ also said its provisions for bad and doubtful debts had increased, partly due to stress in the resources and agriculture sectors.’

“That’s a concern and the inferred meaning is if ANZ is feeling it, they are all going to feel something,” Mr Lucas said.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:12:17

‘Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) was established under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) Act. Anti-money laundering and tax laws apply equally to everyone. It is disingenuous of realtors who flaunt our laws for immense personal gain to accuse those who would call out their illegal behaviour as “racist.”

‘There is a simple solution to the money-laundering problem in Vancouver’s real-estate market that will make the industry more accountable and transparent.’

‘FINTRAC requires all real-estate agents and developers to file “suspicious transaction reports” where “there are reasonable grounds to suspect that a transaction or an attempted transaction is related to the commission or attempted commission of a money laundering offence.”

‘Large cash or wire transfer transactions involving amounts of $10,000 or more must be reported. Where a purchaser from a country with currency limits [China’s is $50,000 per year] purchases a multi-million dollar property, at what point is the provenance of the funds not suspicious to a realtor?’

‘Just as lawyers must submit to annual audits of their trust accounts for meticulous compliance with trust accounting and anti-money laundering legislation, so, too, ought realtors be legally required to submit to an annual audit of their transactions and accounts by independent professional accountants, or those tasked by a central regulatory authority.’

‘All instances of non-compliance with FINTRAC reporting by realtors who would turn a blind eye or be complicit in laundering schemes would be vigorously prosecuted, and sent to a professional discipline hearing for penalties with consequences sufficient to deter such reprehensible behaviour — including the lifetime loss of an offending realtor’s license.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:13:57

‘One seizure in June 2012 stands out. According to CBSA documents, an unidentified Chinese man failed to declare $177,500 in cash tucked into the lining of his suitcase and hidden in his clothing and wallet.’

‘Under Canadian laws meant to hinder money laundering. international travellers can legally bring any amount of money into Canada, as long as they claim it. But any cash or monetary instruments — such as stocks, bonds or bank drafts — valued over $10,000 must be reported to the CBSA.’

‘After he was caught with hidden rolls of Canadian and U.S. cash, the Chinese man told a CBSA agent that he intended to buy a house or car with the money. Although Chinese citizens are restricted by their government from removing any cash greater than $50,000 per individual each year — and the case raises red flags, according to money laundering experts — the man walked out of Vancouver airport with every cent of his hidden cash, minus a $2,500 fine.’

‘Over the past 10 years, newly rich Chinese have increasingly sent cash abroad by a variety of legal and illegal means. According to U.S. anti-money laundering organization Global Financial Integrity, China leads the world in illicit cash outflows with a staggering $1.25 trillion US leaving the country in the past decade.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:32:39

‘The people buying these multi-million-dollar properties here in Greater Vancouver don’t care what the asking price is,’ one experienced realtor said.’

May 19, 2005

“It took 60 days for the average detached home to sell during February, up from 39 days in February 2004. The number of homes sold in San Diego in March fell compared with the number sold in March 2004, the eighth monthly year-over-year decline in nine months. The number of San Diego listings swelled 27 percent in March, to 7,062 houses for sale, up from 5,555 for sale in March 2004.”

“Jerry and Laura Satran’s Sunday open house is empty. (They) are asking $1.3 million. But here they are, the second week the house has been on the market, drumming their fingers. The previous Sunday, Jerry says, 40 visitors stopped by. No offers.”

“Two weeks later the Satrans receive an offer: $1.2 million. Not the full asking price. No one seems more disappointed than the neighbors. One woman suggests the Satrans would be hurting the entire block if they settled for less than $1.25 million. ‘She says she was only going to be here for two years, so don’t screw up the comps,’ says Laura. ‘She’s not being cruel, everybody who lives here is in it for the investment.’”

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-06 05:37:16

San Luis Obispo, CA Housing Prices Fall 5% YoY As Defaults Ramp Up

http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-ca/home-values/

Comment by MarkinSF
2015-08-06 09:58:20

The link you provided states that they went up by 4.6%

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
Comment by CHE
2015-08-06 11:52:50

“Median Sale Price,” not the bogus “Home Value Index”

It’s a simple drop down menu.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:37:41

‘Statistics Canada revealed the latest economic data of Canada last July 31 and it showed that the country in inching to recession little by little with its 0.2% drop in the economy for the first half of 2015.’

‘The result shocked the economists as they didn’t expect that the economic percentage will drop again. Douglas Porter, BMO chief economist, said that “there is no sugar-coating this one. It’s a sour result.”

‘Consumers are also having fears over housing bubble in the metro cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. In a report released by the deputy chief economist of TD Bank, it’s stated that “in light of its hotter price performance over the past three to five years and greater supply risk, this vulnerability appears to be comparatively high in the Toronto market.”

‘TD Bank also predicts that there is a “medium-to-moderate” chance of a “painful price adjustment” to real estate properties due to overbuilding of unsold units, high home price- to- income ratio and increase in housing prices.’

‘Housing markets are also not in good shape as some of the places have already started losing value. A fall of 0.2% in the resale value by the end of the year and total home sales drop of 22% for this year are already predicted by The Calgary Real Estate Board which is contrary to the group’s initial prediction of rising home sales by January with 1.6%.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:43:59

‘Job losses and further cuts in business investment in the oil patch are underway, but the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) forecasts benchmark home prices to decline by less than 1 percent for 2015.’

‘CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie spoke with Epoch Times and feels this downturn is different because the real estate market started from a position of strength as the price of oil began plummeting late last year.’

“We’ve seen inventories go up, but they’re nowhere near the highs we’ve seen before that would warrant too much oversupply,” Lurie said. “We’ve just really moved into more balanced conditions.”

‘It might seem like ancient history, but Calgary used to be lumped in with Toronto and Vancouver as Canada’s three hot housing markets. “If you think about what happened in January, it was more of a shock at the time. There was a lot more of ‘We don’t know what’s going to happen, we don’t know how bad this one’s going to be,’ what impact it will have,” Lurie recalls.’

“Now we haven’t seen the double-digit drops in housing prices and people are assessing essentially what is their current situation. No question, we’re seeing a lot less activity and demand has slowed,” Lurie said. “We are hearing that some of the communities are having price cuts. On aggregate it’s working out to a moderate pullback.”

‘The most notable impact is being seen in apartment prices and, to a lesser extent, in some of the more expensive homes, which are more likely to be tied to people working in the relatively well-paying energy sector.’

“The $700,000 to $1 million was almost 9 percent of the market and now it’s almost 8 [percent],” said Lurie. “We’ve seen that shift.”

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 05:54:00

‘Demand remains so strong for new condos — and especially among “end users” looking for a place to live rather than an investment to rent out — that the glut of unsold units declined significantly across the GTA as of the second quarter, according to developers and condo research firm Urbanation. The total number of unsold units may still sound large on paper — 17,709 units as of the end of June, down from 20,763 during the same period last year, Urbanation’s survey says.’

‘Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data show about 1,956 unsold, move-in ready condos across the GTA as of the end of June, significantly higher than historic norms of 1,600 to 1,700, although it couldn’t explain the reason its numbers were so much higher than Urbanation’s.’

‘CMHC senior analyst Dana Senagama agreed, however, that condo market fundamentals remain healthy: GTA sales remain strong, backed by low interest rates, high house prices and strong immigration.’

‘Lots of new units are in the pipeline, according to Urbanation. More than 20,000 new suites are slated to be completed this year and the same number next year before completions are expected to return to more historic norms — between 13,000 and 16,000 new units a year — in late 2017, says Hildebrand.’

‘The most visible evidence of continuing strong condo demand has been playing out in the resale sector. Bidding wars have been breaking out as those priced out of the house market vie for unique or bigger units that can work as longer-term homes.’

‘longer-term homes’ as opposed to barfly rental, one bedroom flips?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 06:00:37

‘The dramatic drop in the Canadian dollar over the past two years has had significant implications for businesses, consumers and investors. The currency has declined nearly 25 per cent since the winter of 2013 when it last flirted with parity. That’s the biggest two-year drop on record.’

‘The big question now is how long we’ll have to live with a lower currency given the weakness in the Canadian economy. Three fundamental factors have hit the Canadian dollar, BMO Capital Markets Economics says.’

‘The most obvious is a pullback in commodity prices linked to the cooling economy in China and other emerging markets. Declining demand has had a significant impact on oil prices, which are down 50 per cent, while a basket of non-energy commodities is also down 17 per cent since 2013.’

‘The second factor is the sustained strength of the U.S. dollar. The loonie has declined much more against the U.S. dollar than against other currencies like the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.’

‘Finally, there’s been a notable shift in monetary policy since Stephen Poloz became the Bank of Canada Governor. He reversed the bank’s previous bias toward tightening, talked up the importance of exports and cut rates twice, while appearing to welcome a lower exchange rate.’

‘Looking ahead, it’s hard to make a case that the Canadian currency will appreciate much over the next year or two. Canada needs a lift from exports and related capital spending in order to replace the boost it once got from housing and debt-financed consumption, economists at CIBC World Markets note.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-06 07:47:09

“boost it once got from housing and debt-financed consumption…”

Faustian bargain. You only get to sell your future once.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by azdude
2015-08-06 16:08:54

still beating a dead horse?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 16:40:02

ShitHousePoet,

Take it up with Robert Shiller.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-06 07:02:48

Newcastle(Seattle) Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY; Demand Plummets Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/newcastle-wa/home-values/

Comment by MarkinSF
2015-08-06 10:03:37

They went up by 9%.

Comment by CHE
2015-08-06 12:00:19

Jun 2014 - $597k
Jun 2015 - $543k

$543k / $597 - 1 = -0.0904522613065327 or -9%

Data + Math = Truth

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-06 15:44:16

There’s a wishing price and a make believe value and then there is sale price, all on the same page.

 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 07:11:20

4,589 properties found Dallas, TX Real Estate and Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Dallas_TX

1,306 properties found Dallas, TX Price Reduced Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Dallas_TX/show-price-reduced

A realtor was recently quoted as say there are bidding wars in Dallas. The data proves something different entirely.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-06 07:59:32

Alameda, CA Housing Prices Dive 13%; Inventory Balloons 78%

http://www.movoto.com/alameda-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 09:05:30

All the crows in New Mexico have been eaten:

‘China’s economy is growing only half as fast as official data shows, or maybe even slower, according to foreign investors and analysts who increasingly challenge how the world’s second largest economy can be measured so swiftly and precisely. Beijing’s official statisticians reported last month that China’s economy grew by a steady 7.0 percent in the first two quarters of the year, spot on its official 2015 target.’

‘That statistical stability comes at a time when prices of global commodities, which China still hungers for despite a campaign to rebalance the economy away from investment and manufacturing toward consumer spending, have cratered.’

(Cratered?)

‘But perhaps the biggest question is how a developing country of 1.4 billion people can publish its quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics weeks before first drafts from developed economies like the United States, the euro zone or Britain, and then barely revise them later.’

“We think the numbers are fantasy,” said Erik Britton of Fathom Consulting, a London-based independent research firm and one of the more vocal critics of official Chinese data. “There is no way those numbers are even close to the truth.”

‘Fathom publishes a simple indicator based on three variables that Li said at the time he watched for a better view of how his local economy, and by extension the national one, was faring: electricity consumption, rail cargo volume, and bank lending. That implies a growth rate of 3.2 percent, and shows a significant decoupling from the official rate since late 2013 based on a plunge in rail freight volumes and below-trend growth in electricity production.’

“Clearly nobody believes the data,” said Sushil Wadhwani, a former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member and founder of Wadhwani Asset Management LLP. Wadhwani says he also looks at various proxies of China’s growth rate, which he deems are “pretty unreliable” as well and which suggest anywhere from 1.5 percent to about 5 percent growth. “I truly don’t know where we are in that range”, he said.’

“For a long time, investors and multinationals have not held the Chinese government accountable for having better data,” said Leland Miller, president of China Beige Book International, a New York-based firm providing anecdotal survey information about China based on the Fed’s “Beige Book” model. “These people have said ‘it’s good enough.’ So the Chinese have been able to get away with it.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/06/china-economy-data-idUSL3N10F3WR20150806

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-06 09:16:08

Update: Crude Oil Craters: $44.30

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

Note: Todays crude is 10 cents away from it’s 52 week low.

Remember…. cratering prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is good for your economy.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-06 09:30:01

Pomona, CA Housing Prices Fall 8% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/pomona-ca-91766/home-values/

 
Comment by Hubrispie
2015-08-06 11:40:49

Denver Post 8/6/2015

The number of homes available for sale in metro Denver spiked in July, while home sales dropped and prices flattened out, providing further evidence that one of the country’s hottest housing markets might be topping out, according to a report Thursday from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.

The inventory of homes available for sale at the end of July in an 11-county area centered around Denver stood at 7,470, up 20.5 percent from June. That’s still way below historical levels, according to the report.

The number of homes sold dropped 9.7 percent to 5,484 in July from June. The median price of a single-family home sold, $350,000, was 2.8 percent below June’s median. The median price of condos sold, $215,000, was down 0.35 percent from June.

“This is all welcome news for homebuyers who have survived the recent months of market frenzy,” said Anthony Rael, chairman of the DMAR market trends committee in an analysis of the numbers.

Plenty of pent-up demand remains. Single-family homes spent an average of only 22 days on market, down from 26 days in June and 29 days in July 2014.

A separate report from REColorado, the metro area’s multiple listing service, showed a 19 percent drop in active listings, a 1 percent drop in homes sold and a 4 percent drop in the median sold price.

Comment by doom
2015-08-06 12:49:32

I would hate to own a home in Denver that sold for 900k (price should be 500k) and try to sell it not if but when the whole bottom drops out.
Never forget the RE agent ” you can’t get in to look at it” either come back at 2pm and maybe I have time for you to look around.
I have her card, you can imagine the conservation I will have with her when the “priced reduce” is advertised?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 11:47:47

Fort McMurray:

http://www.coldwellbankerfortmcmurray.com/listings.asp?PAGE=1&SORT=price_up&PAGECOUNT=10

“292″ Listings Match Your Search Criteria

Price reduced:

http://www.coldwellbankerfortmcmurray.com/listings.asp?PAGE=1&SORT=pricereduction_up&PAGECOUNT=10

“292″ Listings Match Your Search Criteria

I think we have a winner!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 12:04:00

OK so I’m looking around Queen Creek, AZ. I see a foreclosure and if find:

08/04/15 Price change $169,900-6.5% $67
07/28/15 Listed for sale $181,793+9.4% $71
08/08/12 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $166,168+5.5% $65
10/28/08 Sold $157,500+9.4% $62
09/08/08 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $144,000-42.5% $56
12/22/05 Sold $250,629 $98

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2097-W-Fruit-Tree-Ln-Queen-Creek-AZ-85142/67437256_zpid/

Foreclosed twice in 4 years. Over here:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2097-W-Fruit-Tree-Ln_Queen-Creek_AZ_85142_M21876-71708?row=1

9 days on realtor.com

It was foreclosed the second time almost exactly 3 years ago. Hmmm, maybe it took a while to get the carpet cleaned.

They obviously just relisted it to cut down the days on market. I didn’t search and search to find this. It was the first one I looked at.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2015-08-06 12:19:23

Yup.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-06 13:05:24

Denver, CO Housing Inventory Balloons 89%; Prices Fall 9%

http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/

Comment by taxpers
2015-08-06 15:14:43

The only nirvana remaining is san Fran
One little Indian

Comment by azdude
2015-08-06 16:11:00

uber should provide some urinals for all the homeless. Just dedicate a dude to driving a sh@tter around town all day. Advertisement all over it. A cash cow.

 
 
 
Comment by Doom
2015-08-06 16:40:16

You see adds, a drug caused cancer, class action lawsuit, auto maker must be fined and buy back the car purchase. Of course this will go nowhere, but if you owned a home during Dodd-Frank /sub- prime and sustained a loss on your property by no fault of your own, a check should be in the mail?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-06 18:38:26

NASDAQ Biotechnology (^NBI)
3,887.75 -159.73(-3.95%)

 
Comment by phony scandals
2015-08-07 05:35:57

phony scandals

 
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