Bits Bucket for August 7, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Are commodities or commodities ETFs a better bet?
wsj dot com
ETFs
Worst-Hit Commodity Investments? Not Commodities
Some exchange-traded funds that track oil and gold producers have fallen even farther this year than the underlying materials
By Leslie Josephs
Updated Aug. 6, 2015 9:33 p.m. ET
What is falling harder than commodity prices? Some exchange-traded funds that seek to track the companies that dig and drill for raw materials and fuel.
It is no small feat to overshadow recent declines in industrial materials such as oil and metals. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the prices of 22 raw materials, this week hit a 13-year low and is down 13% this year.
For 2015, copper prices have slumped 17%, oil prices have dropped 16% and gold prices have fallen 8%. Exchange-traded funds that track these commodities are down by a similar percentage.
But some exchange-traded funds that invest in and aim to track the share prices of commodity-producing companies are doing much worse.
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, which tracks mostly oil and gas producers, is down nearly 20% this year. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF has lost nearly 35% this year. A fund focused on gold miners, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, has dropped 27% so far in 2015. The fund hit a record low this week.
Weighing on the companies’ performances: heavy debts, high costs,and flagging growth that is clouding the outlook for demand even as supplies for the firms’ flagship products remain robust.
The gap in declines highlights the toll on producers of falling commodity prices and underscores the need for investors seeking to play broad trends to look carefully at what funds are buying. Just as shares of many producers have been hit harder than the underlying commodities, performance of producer-focused funds has varied. For example, oil refining has been a brighter spot, and funds with exposure to that business have fared better than others.
…
Cash seems to be doing quite well.
True dat. Maybe that explains why I have such a large part of my portfolio in cash.
How about commodities hedge funds?
Business Insider
Finance
The ‘God’ of oil trading is getting crushed by the commodities slump
Portia Crowe
Aug. 6, 2015, 2:28 PM
A commodities hedge fund run by star trader Andy Hall is getting hammered by the recent collapse in oil prices.
Hall’s Astenbeck Capital Management fund lost about 17% in July, Reuters reports, citing an investor letter.
That is the second-largest loss the fund has ever experienced. Its assets under management are now about $2.8 billion, down about $500 million since June, according to Reuters.
The oil fund also posted losses in May and June, Reuters reported.
Hall, who, according to a 2013 Max Abelson profile, is known to competitors as “God,” gained notoriety as the leader of Phibro when he demanded a $100 million pay package from then owner Citigroup during the financial crisis. Oil and other commodities prices have collapsed in the last 12 months.
The S&P GSCI commodity index, which is made up of the most liquid commodity futures, is down around 44% over the past 12 months.
This is not the first commodities fund to get burnt by the collapse in commodities prices.
The Carlyle Group-backed Vermillion recently saw its assets drop from nearly $2 billion to less than $50 million. Its cofounders have left the firm.
Bloomberg recently reported that London-based Armajaro Asset Management will close its $450 million commodities fund after it fell around 11% in the first half of 2015.
Bloomberg also reported that Black River Asset Management is liquidating four hedge funds, including its commodities fund.
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital and Greenlight Capital Re, the fund’s reinsurer, have also been dragged down by the slump in gold prices.
…
“The ‘God’ of oil trading”
Petroleus, be merciful.
Is there at least another five years of falling oil prices ahead?
Marketwatch dot com
The chart
Got a feeling the bear market in oil is about to end? That the reversal is right around the corner? Well, history isn’t on your side, if this chart is any indication (h/t Joe Weisenthal). Good times for the black stuff tend to be short-lived, while the bad times linger anywhere from 11 to 28 years, according to Credit Suisse. We’re only seven years into this tough stretch.
You never buy anything anyways. Even if oil dropped to 20 you wouldn’t go long.
You’re right Poet…. it won’t be long before crude goes to $20.
You aren’t paying attention, as otherwise you would know that I made the mistake of buying energy stock mutual fund shares earlier this year before the crash really got rolling.
‘you wouldn’t go long’
I keep tellin’ ya, Forever stamps.
Stamps.com Inc. (STMP) -Nasdaq
81.70 Up 15.63(23.66%) 9:50AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=STMP&ql=1
PALDF (one of only two North American-based Platinum Group Metals producers - Russia and South Africa being the primary supply sources) - looks like its crashed about as hard as it can and the upside potential looks a lot more compelling than the downside risk.
If the neocons don’t get to start their war with Iran, oil WILL hit 20.
Is it safe to assume the worst of the Chinese stock market meltdown is over?
The New York Times
Op-Ed Contributor
Stock Markets Vex China’s Leaders
By YASHENG HUANG
August 6, 2015
In 1992, Bill Clinton came up with the famous formula that won him the White House: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Chinese leaders have taken this approach to a stratospheric level. They feel a need to deliver economic miracles at all times and under all circumstances. This insistence on appearing to be omnipotent is among the reasons why the Chinese government allowed a stock market bubble to form and why it is now trying desperately to prevent it from bursting.
Since mid-June, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has declined by about 30 percent. While a precipitous fall of share prices is worrisome, even after the recent market routs the Shanghai index is still some 65 percent higher than it was a year earlier, while the shares of China’s small- and medium-cap companies remain among the most expensive in the world.
Still, Chinese leaders appear determined to reverse the market declines. Some of their measures have been extreme and sweeping: a massive share-purchase program by the government, prohibiting sell-offs by major shareholders, banning new I.P.O.s, suspending trading of many shares, investigations into short-selling “with a malicious intent,” and dispatching a public security official to examine trading records.
The bull run started a year before the tumble in June. The Shanghai index was at 2,051.71 points on June 12, 2014, and it peaked at 5,166.35 on June 12, 2015. Before this surge, the most significant contribution of China’s stock markets had been their irrelevance to the real economy. The Shanghai index hardly increased between 2000 and 2013 — except for 2007, the year of euphoria before the Beijing Olympics — while the Chinese economy grew rapidly, overtaking Japan as the second largest economy in the world. By comparison, the Sensex index in Mumbai quintupled in the same period, in a country that many consider an economic laggard compared with China.
But during the bull run preceding the June crash, the financial sector became linked to the rest of the economy through the extensive use of margin trading — the practice of using borrowed funds to purchase shares. Margin debt increased fivefold during this period, and it was the singular force that fueled the market rise. Chinese financial regulators justified their recent market interventions on the grounds that defaults on the margin trades can pose systemic risks to Chinese banks. There is some merit to this argument, but the logic is similar to the one used by the boy who pleaded for leniency because he was an orphan — after he had killed his parents.
The current mess is entirely due to the active encouragement by the authorities to invest in the markets and to lax regulations. Editorials in People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, talked up the market, and regulatory authorities tacitly permitted the dangerous practice of margin trading.
The fundamentals for the market surge were noticeable only in their absence. G.D.P. slowed substantially during this time, and many companies reported deteriorating earnings. The economy’s overcapacity worsened, and Europe, an important trading partner with China, was mired in a recession.
Yet the stock markets surged. This was not irrational exuberance; it was exuberant irrationality.
…
Is there really such a huge difference between the Chinese government’s stock market support and the U.S. government’s housing market support, aside from the frequency of U.S. news stories on these topics?
BloombergBusiness
Man Who Called Top of China Stock Rally Sees Rout Worsening
by Adam Haigh
August 5, 2015 — 6:15 PM CDT
Updated on August 6, 2015 — 3:59 AM CDT
More than two decades’ experience poring over stock charts helped Thomas Schroeder lock in profits in April before Chinese companies in Hong Kong went into freefall.
Now he’s bearish again, betting the slump in Chinese shares won’t stop anytime soon. The Shanghai Composite Index will decline to as low as 3,100 in two months, Schroeder said, 16 percent below the closing level Wednesday, despite intermittent rallies as the government steps up efforts to stabilize the market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong will drop about 10 percent, he said.
To Schroeder, slowing Chinese economic growth and collapsing commodities prices are heightening the chance that the indexes will fall below key equity market support levels. These are lines on charts that technical analysts say typically mark a floor for prices. Technical analysts use past patterns to try to predict future movements.
“For now, we’re in the bear camp,” Schroeder, founder and managing director at Chart Partners Group Ltd., a provider of trading strategies linked to technical analysis, said by phone from Bangkok. “You’re not going to get to it right away. I’m sure the Chinese government will continue to come in and try to support the market in Shanghai. But in the next two months, you’re going to be” reaching these levels.
…
Doesn’t printing money to buy stocks hurt the general population via inflation? does anyone really care?
That’s not inflation. *Learn* the difference.
Every printing press dollar further debases the purchasing power of ‘Muricans. However, ‘Muricans are OK with that as in 2008 and 2012 95% of them voted for pro-bailout Republicrat candidates Obama, McCain, and Romney, while rejecting Ron Paul, the only candidate who stood for honest money and wants to end the Fed.
Stupid is as stupid does.
China’s stock market rise was doomed to spiral out of control
Das Capital: The A-share bubble was engineered to compensate for growing economic problems
Satyajit Das
Wednesday 05 August 2015
Oriental mystery swathes everything in China, including its stock market. Between 2013 and mid-2015, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose by about 250 per cent to over 5,000. Since reaching its peak in June 2015, the indices have fallen sharply, by 27 per cent. The loss equates to about $3-4trn. The phenomenon is not new. In 2007/2008, the Shanghai index also topped 5,000, a rise of 90 per cent, only to fall 70 per cent.
Chinese stock markets are complex, involving multiple types of shares (A, B and H) and convoluted ownership arrangements. The stock market itself is relatively unimportant within the Chinese system. Equity issues contribute 5‑10 per cent of all capital raisings. The vast majority of funding is in the form debt, primarily from banks. The stock market is small relative to the size of the economy. Historically, the total free float value (shares available for trading) in China is about 25-35 per cent of gross domestic product, well below the levels in the US (150 per cent) and most developed economies (85-100 per cent).
Retail investment is modest with only about 10-20 per cent of household wealth being held in the form of shares, well below levels in developed countries. Fewer than 10 per cent of Chinese households actively trade shares while another 4 per cent are exposed to the stock market through mutual funds.
About 30 per cent of the value of the Shanghai market is made up of large companies. Many are government related, with a large proportion of shares held by state firms and government agencies. The rest of the market consists of numerous small and medium-sized enterprises; it is these stocks that attract many investors. The recent stock rises were mainly in these smaller stocks, which increased by 100-400 per cent. In contrast, the prices of larger mainland companies rose only 20-30 per cent during the corresponding period.
Regulation is poor, and many companies list on Chinese exchanges as they would fail the requirements of overseas exchanges, such as those in Hong Kong or the US. Company specific financial disclosure, dividend payments, audits, governance and protection of shareholder rights are poor. Unanticipated government intervention to achieve policy objectives is not unusual.
The primary factor behind the boom was government policy. Investors thought the government would ensure that shares prices would keep rising.
The Chinese political and economic system since Deng Xiaoping has been held together by a simple compact. In return for recognising the Chinese Communist Party’s political control, the majority of the population would see their living standards improve. A few well-connected insiders and a growing middle class would be allowed to accumulate wealth. The A-share bubble was engineered to compensate for China’s growing economic problems, which threatened this tacit arrangement.
China’s economic growth has slowed. It is now forecast to be about 7 per cent, well below the nearly 12 per cent growth it averaged between 2002 and 2008. In the real estate market, a big source of rising wealth, prices are down 20-30 per cent. The government has restricted wealth management products offered by China’s shadow banking system and limited higher-returning investment opportunities for investors looking to protect their purchasing power.
The government undertook targeted easing of interest rates and loosened restrictions on lending to boost growth as well as help manage the reduction of shadow banking and the slowdown in the property sector. Lower rates helped fuel the rise in stock.
Higher shares prices were also intended to assist heavily indebted property companies, local government financing vehicles and state-owned businesses. Favourable stock markets would enable these businesses to raise equity to repay bank borrowings. Taking advantage of conditions, Chinese companies have raised about $100bn in initial and secondary stock offerings.
…
Is china the catalyst for a US stock market crash?
“All part of the big plan, my friend.”
(Aq Dan)
Liberace!
Liberace!
http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2015/08/why-straight-men-have-sex-with-each-other.html
This article is worth reading in its entirety.
China’s Stock Crash Is Spurring a Shakeout in Shadow Banks
August 6, 2015 — 7:32 PM CDT
Updated on August 7, 2015 — 2:00 AM CDT
China has been struggling to tame its shadow banks for years. Now, a stock market crash has hamstrung some of the fastest growing ones in a matter of weeks.
Loans from sources such as online lenders for equity purchases have plunged by at least 700 billion yuan ($113 billion), a drop of 61 percent from this year’s peak, after authorities banned them from funding stock buying in July, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted last month. Peer-to-peer Internet lending for the purchases had more than tripled to 8 billion yuan in the second quarter, data from research firm Yingcan Group show.
The reversal has helped cull riskier lenders in China’s online market, which was surging before the equity rout wiped out more than $4 trillion. President Xi Jinping has already curbed traditional forms of unregulated funding — such as trust loans — as part of his effort to wean the economy from debt-fueled growth after corporate defaults mounted.
“The new regulations are making the industry more disciplined and transparent,” said Wei Hou, a senior equity analyst for Chinese banks at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. “There may be short-term pain of a number of small players closing down. But it’s good for the industry in the long term.”
…
Dr. Copper says “Nope”
—————-
METALS-Copper slides to 6-year low on China growth angst
Pratima Desai - Monday, 3 Aug 2015 - Reuters
Copper prices hit six-year lows on Monday as manufacturing data from top consumer China and a slide in Shanghai equities reinforced concern about economic growth prospects.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange tumbled 1.7 percent to $5,142 a tonne, its lowest since July 2009. The metal used in power and construction was at $5,161 at 0942 GMT from $5,230 at Friday’s close.
“The really poor Chinese manufacturing data would be the primary concern for metals,” said Sergey Raevskiy, metals research analyst at SP Angel.
“There hasn’t been any stabilisation of Chinese stocks, despite all the efforts by the government.”
July manufacturing activity in China fell at its fastest pace in two years, dashing hopes the economy may be stabilising.
Traders also cited concern about the ripple effect of slowing actvity in China on other Asian economies.
“There is no incentive to stop copper falling below $5,000, it’s going to break soon,” one trader said. “The Caixin suggests serious weakness in China’s private and smaller companies.”
So if the jobs report is > 200k are they gonna finally hike rates in SEPT?
Or will it be more rubbish talk like the past 5 years?
It will be like Lucy with the football.
ZIRP is the Fed’s best tool for swindling the 99% out of interest income and forcing them to play in Wall Street’s rigged casino, where the Fed’s oligarch cronies can fleece them at will. So no, despite the incessant jawboning, ZIRP will be maintained until inflation pressures (due to the dollar’s debasement, and despite inflationary pressures) and dumping of US Treasuries force the Fed’s hand.
Are you saying the FED is out to fleece retail investors?
+1 to Rand Paul for calling out that fat piece of sh*t Christie for pimping 9/11
+1
Unfortunately, conventional wisdom of the msm has it that Christie came away looking better, while Paul seemed unpresidential.
On the plus side, most everyone seems to think the Trumpster came away the overall winner. And Jeb looked weak.
On the plus side, most everyone seems to think the Trumpster came away the overall winner.
Trump is presidential. Republicans should be proud. You can do it.
Bang. That was Kelly, with her first question to Trump, reminding him that he had described women as fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals. “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” Trump interjected with a forced smile, but Kelly was in no mood for humor. “For the record, it was well beyond Rosie O’Donnell,” she said sternly. Obviously somewhat taken aback, Trump tried to downplay his sexist remarks as “fun, it’s kidding,” and then complained, peevishly, that Kelly hadn’t been nice to him.
The New Yorker
Buh but 911!
How long before 2banana gets the usual suspects panties in a twist?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im9XuJJXylw - 343k -
PS
Professor Bear
You are not one of the usual suspects.
Nobody gets to show up here and crown themselves “Mr Republican” and claim he speaks on behalf of conservatism and Christianity
I like how Ben Jones took him to the woodshed for a spanking yesterday
The Born again Liberals were casting people into the fires of Hell too.
Just not much of a “Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.” kinda crowd.
Starting to worry about what eternity has in store for a race-baiter?
Years ago I met with a Baptist preacher who reminds me of you Oddie.
Quite a story.
I’m sure it is.
Real journalists at the New York Times report on America’s greatest friend and ally, the only democracy in the Middle East, the racist, gay-bashing apartheid state of Israel:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/world/middleeast/acts-of-violence-prompt-soul-searching-in-israel.html
“The focal point was a black cloth with simple white chalk Hebrew letters spelling out “Ali Saad Dawabsheh” and “Shira Banki,” the Palestinian toddler burned to death in his West Bank home and the 16-year-old Jewish girl fatally stabbed at a gay pride march in Jerusalem.”
Wow… nearly tops Rachel Corrie being crushed by an Armored Bulldozer.
Does this recovery feel like one big @ass marketing campaign?
New York Post article for the Social Justice Warriors™
“A boring chief protagonist whose minority status does not a personality make”
http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/why-i-am-cait-is-an-unwatchable-mess-and-how-to-fix-it/
Which is unpossible, because my SJW betters assured that Caitlyn is the second coming of Jesus Christ, and that any hetero male not turned on by Caitlyn is a racist
Warmist Warming Friday
New York Times (real journalists) wets the bed on warmism:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/opinion/as-the-arctic-thaws-new-temptations.html
And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links
Another “emerging market” circling the drain.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/06/getting-worse-and-worse-in-brazil-service-sector-manufacturing-financial-crisis-hsbc-bradesco/
A record 93.8 million Americans “not in the labor force.” How long can the dwindling number of producers keepy carrying the ever-growing army of takers?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/americans-not-labor-force-rise-record-938-million-participation-rate-1977-level
It can continue as long as American voters approve, and maybe even longer.
A record 93.8 million Americans “not in the labor force.”
The Beacon forecast calls for 3% growth next year. —Christopher Thornberg
The Beacon forecast calls for 3% growth next year.
“Growth” does not matter anymore as it used to. Our new world requires far fewer jobs no matter the “growth”.
It will never be the same again and the economic system needs to adjust to the new reality. A guaranteed minimum income will happen imo. There is no huge voluntary free sh!t army. They are just people living in a new economic reality and needing to eat.
Today’s new economic realty requires fewer jobs.
Anecdotal
I took the C train downtown to Union Station and rode my bike up to the bar in River North (www.mockerybrewing.com) and instead of taking 20th Street to the Platte River bike path I tried to shortcut north. And got lost in block after block after block of newly completed and under construction five floor apartment buildings, none of which existed only three years ago. Millennials (BARF) everywhere, paying $1500-$2000 a month for their high walkscore apartments
It was like riding my bike through MacBeth’s greatest nightmare
And BTW, I live in a high walkscore neighborhood but I pay under $1000 a month
Ben Jones, in response to your email about visiting Denver next month, I will try to put together a comprehensive, specific list of neighborhoods for you to see
“…rode my bike…”
What are you riding, gravel bike or mtb?
He’s on a fixie, with skinny-legged jeans.
Castle Rock.
Very cheap construction, 50 minutes from downtown, postage size lots, thousands of square miles of empty land around it, one highway to it.
Go see some model homes and just feel the potential equity…
When the Great Reset comes, I would not want to be trapped in this suburban wasteland.
When the Great Reset comes,
There will be no “Great Reset” imo. The whole system is designed for a slow burn.
I agree - Joseph Tainter’s model of catabolic decline. A hundred years wipes out the cultural memory of erstwhile prosperity 100-200 years ago. Suppresses discontent, because it’s always been this way.
Can’t believe I agree with The Rio about something.
Can’t believe I agree with The Rio about something.
I must be slipping.
Marketwatch dot com
Economic Report
U.S. creates 215,000 jobs in July, setting stage for rate hikes
By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Aug 7, 2015 9:43 a.m. ET
Payroll Rise of 215,000 in July Keeps Fed on Track for September
The U.S. job market is chugging ahead, making the type of progress Federal Reserve policy makers want to see in order to raise interest rates as soon as September.
Employers added 215,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate held at a seven-year low of 5.3 percent, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The gain in payrolls last month followed a 231,000 advance in June that was bigger than previously estimated.
The persistent pace of hiring this year indicates companies are sanguine about prospects for demand in the face of a tempered global growth outlook. Better job security that leads to bigger wage gains could encourage consumers to spend more freely and provide more momentum for the economy.
“Trend job growth is rock solid,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, which correctly forecast the increase in payrolls. “It’s more than sufficient to continue to chip away at the slack that’s left in the job market.”
Stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declining 0.3 percent to 2,077.82 at 9:34 a.m. in New York. Treasury two-year yields rose three basis points to 0.73 percent, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell one basis point to 2.21 percent.
While the data also showed a pickup in hours worked, average hourly earnings climbed a less-than-forecast 2.1 percent from a year earlier, indicating little momentum in wage growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-07/payrolls-in-u-s-increased-215-000-in-july-in-broad-based-gain
Record 93,770,000 Americans Not in Labor Force
by Caroline May
7 Aug 2015
The number of people not in the labor force reached another record high in July, according to new jobs data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The BLS reports that 93,770,000 people (16 and older) were neither employed last month nor had made specific efforts to find work in the prior four weeks.
The number of people outside the workforce in July increased 144,000 over June’s record when 93,626,000 were not in the workforce.
July’s labor force participation rate however remained the the same as June at 62.6 percent. Before last month the labor force participation rate had not been that low since October 1977, when the participation rate was 62.4 percent.
The BLS reports that the civilian labor force did experience a slight uptick from 157,037,000 in June to 157,106,000 in July after the month of June saw it drop by 432,000.
While the labor participation rate remains at the lowest its been since the late 1970s, the BLS highlighted that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3 percent and nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 215,000.
how many of them don’t want to work?
This article is fantastic
http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/08/tinder-hook-up-culture-end-of-dating
Buying drinks or meals for women is so 20th century, why bother? LOLZ
The article may be reflective of the way things are with the predator claases of NYC, but out here in Flyover?
Things are much more traditional. Except for the fact that young women are finding the pickings slim, when it comes to finding boyfriends who aren’t mama’s boys, live in the basement playing video games, and have decent full time jobs.
Daughter #1: “Yeah, he has some “maturity” issues, but you should see the rest of them…….”
Maybe the mamas boy’s don’t care so much for the porky flyover women, either.
Diabetes in progress everywhere you look out here.
Got Rosie O’Donnell?
“don’t care so much for the porky flyover women”
Correct. Rust Belt man here. I see so many women with beer bellies today, that I stopped dating entirely. Pretty much all the women in my age range (I’m in my late 40s) have become sexually repulsive. And I can’t spare the cash to pull in the legendary Asian or Eastern European wife import. By age 35 I’d totally run out of options for romance. Well, it gives me plenty of time to catch up on my reading as I watch Rome burn.
I can see why men would like tinder but I have no idea why women buy in to it. They’ve always lived the tinder life in the bar scene, the only difference is the swipe to the left with the snarky put down is literal now instead of figurative. For men all the hard work has been taken out of the pursuit and their rejection is anonymous. A guy only ever knows about it when a woman swipes right, correct? I imagine a few years of living that life would leave anyone a bit cynical at the end of it though.
“I can see why men would like tinder but I have no idea why women buy in to it.”
Back when I was a pup the ladies in college experimented with different guys, but they always kept their eye on the guys with a slide rule in their back pocket. When its time to “settle down” the the stem peeps get their turn.
When its time to “settle down” the the stem peeps get their turn.
AKA sloppy seconds.
In the military training programs you frequently heard, “You don’t have to finish first… you just have to finish.”
I am shocked…SHOCKED! Chuck Schumer sides more with his sky wizards (Jewish, Zionism) than with Obama on the Iran diplomacy issue.
Once again I find myself against Chuck Dchumer on another issue, which at the same time I find myself in rare agreement and praise of Obama.
Bill don’t be running your mouth or Abraham Foxman will put your name on a list
It’s Mike Huckabee’s “base” that you should be worried about, these people are scary, and in my opinion, because of they view Jewish people and American foreign policy regarding the state of Israel, anti-semitic
First they want an apocalypse, which will bring about the rapture, which will lead to Huckleberry’s show being cancelled after his entire audience is taken up to Heaven. I don’t think he thought this through.
Note to self….. Don’t buy replacement AED batteries and shock pads online again, or you are going to start getting pop-ups like this:
http://tinyurl.com/naqb5u8
“…..have given KERi a realistic appearance as a woman, or as a man when the wig is removed and the male genitals are attached…….”
Don’t know whether to say “WTF?” or “Ouch!”
If you like your corrupt, incompetent Lib-Dem municipal administration, you can keep your corrupt, incompetent Lib-Dem municipal administration. Enjoy your dystopia, NYC Democrats. Nothing like a good mugging or carjacking, or a wino taking a dump on your porch, to adjust your perceptions.
http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/worst-quality-of-life-in-years-new-yorkers-in-new-poll/
I skipped the train and rode my bike home from the bar last night from north Denver through downtown to south Denver, so many freaks and junkies and panhandlers and methhead tweakers out on the streets, lions and tigers and bears oh my
Nothing on a scale of NYC but a nice reminder of why I live well south of where all the cool kidz are, there’s a whole lotta “collateral damage” from legal weed out there
But I’ve got to admit, I almost gave a guy some money yesterday, because he had a good sign:
“Please Help! Stranded on this planet!”
Save a new new first yesterday. A unemployed guy putting a sign up in front of his own house, looking for Mr. Fixit-type jobs.
“Mr. Fixit-type jobs”
Story is my great granddaddy raised a big litter of kids this way, after losing an arm at his factory job.
“Man on the Block” is what his sign read.
The conventional wisdom among a lot of Americans is that none of those are really looking for work. They all just want a handout.
Of course. That makes us feel all smug and special… elite one might say.
Don’t kid yourself, just because you can’t see the meth-heads spread out all over red-state America, and all those rural areas with “crime watch” signs posted in every yard, that doesn’t mean they’re not there.
Silver surging. When the true destruction wrought by the Fed’s deranged money-printing catches up to the dollar, the stampede to the safe haven of precious metals is going to be epic.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/silver-surges-above-15-biggest-jump-3-months
Huh? Silver was $20 a year ago, now it can’t get above $15, how is it surging?
Article for the Social Justice Warriors™
Police kill whitey, and nobody cares, because there’s no narrative to script:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/lonnae-oneal-police-kill-a-white-teen-and-the-silence-raises-questions/2015/08/06/9aa8eed2-3c5a-11e5-8e98-115a3cf7d7ae_story.html
P.S. Al and Jesse need to get PAID
Black man gotta lotta problems,
But they don’t mind throwin’ a brick.
White people go to school,
Where they teach you how to be thick.
White riot,
I wanna riot,
White riot,
A riot of my own!
You can quote Clash lyrics all day, but it doesn’t change the fact that Obama’s son was sippin on some sizzurp (Arizona Iced Tea brand watermelon fruit punch, skittles, and promethazine with codeine) when he attacked George Zimmerman
And now back to your regularly scheduled Salon, Buzzfeed, and Huffpost links
Downpresser man
Where you gonna run to
All along that day?
You gonna run to the sea,
But the sea will be boiling…
Yeah, but it’s also been fun watching Zimmerman self-destruct. Majority of people view him as a loser now. Even Fox News said he needs to “shut up and go away.”
” Even Fox News said he needs to “shut up and go away.””
It screws up the narrative of heroic white guy shooting black thug when Zimmerman continues to be involved in firearms incidents and various other insanities every other month.
Trayvon will not be forgotten
Hip-hop star The Game has a tattoo of Trayvon on his leg, LOLZ
heroic white guy <– heh, now that Zimmerman is deemed by many to be a loser, how many people and media writers now deem him to be “Hispanic”?
Jewspanic, actually. The stormfront crowd must love him.
Why do so many conservatives live in fear of having their asses kicked by some skinny black kid?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_riot
Ohh yes, more examples of White humanity. Are these you relatives Goon?
70% of black children in America are born out of wedlock
Vote Democrat Party for decades and that’s what you get
Much less all those that never made it our of the womb to take their first breath.
The stats of black abortion are just appalling.
The stats of black abortion are just appalling.
Just 150 years ago that would be a serious potential property loss in Alabama.
70% of black children in America are born out of wedlock
Just 6 generations ago you could still sell them for the same price as non-bastards in Virginia.
Goon,
Not exactly sure what does 70 percent of black children being raised in single parent households had to do with you nasty comment about Travon Martin….but I am pretty sure this link will warm your heart😊
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/18/the-unbelievable-rise-of-single-motherhood-in-america-over-the-last-50-years/
The single parent household rate among whites is 41 percent and RISING…..I guess this is another example of the WASP culture I keep reading about.
I guess “facts” and “research” are not a strong point of yours are they RJ Chicago?
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0101.pdf
Nasty comment?
It’s not nasty, it’s true. And the reason I mention Trayvon is because he is arguably the beginning of the Social Justice Warrior™ movement against violence against young black males that fails to differentiate between violent thugs who initiated the violence versus innocent victims of police or civilian violence.
Michael Brown attacked the cop.
And Eric Garner was murdered by NYPD.
SJWs, learn the difference and stop defending violent thugs.
“The unbelievable rise of single motherhood in America over the last 50 years”
The public school system should teach alternate modes of sex that avoid pregnancy.
Maybe whites are mostly badge lickers.
That’s not part of the SPLC script you get paid to post here
There’s plenty of that going around.
Police kill whitey, and nobody cares, because it’s not systemic.
My take on the debate, from the liberal side of the aisle:
Trump — Fox set up “gotcha” questions rigged against him. His non-answers were all bombast and little substance. That’s worked well for him so far, but will his act wear thin? The boos suggest that he might have peaked already. He’s basically pointing a gun at the head of the GOP: nominate me or I go third party. But that threat is only meaningful if his poll ratings hold up…
Bush — Mitt Romney, is that you? Playing the moderate “electability” card 100%.
Kasich — if the GOP was smart they would nominate him. Answers showed depth of knowledge, experience in government, cares about results and has a good grasp of facts. He’s sharp. He stood out as the one guy who could actually run the government competently. Hillary would have a tough time debating him due to his command of facts.
Walker — This guy is genuinely creepy. He seemed a little stiff with prepared, pat answers. Lack of charisma is a problem here. Same goes for Cruz.
Christie — Isn’t there something in the Constitution that says people with a lisp cannot be President?
Paul — Feisty but also seemed shrill at times; he’ll probably gain a few points in the polls for engaging Christie and Trump. Waffled on Iran, but that’s par for the course because Paul is a consistent waffler.
Carson — He might be cerebral but he has a weak presence.
Rubio — A little boring but seems like a reasonable guy; unfortunately for him he got drowned out by the fireworks.
Trump was angry and mouthy, Jeb came across old and tired, Christi wants to be the bitch of ptb.Cruze felt like he was speaking in a church with nasal tones. Rubio had nothing to say, Carson lost me on his tax proposal. John was okay, Rand did okay, Huckabee came across religious and Walker was flappy.
Not impressed with this GOP circus
Democrats jubilant after chaotic Republican debate
“It’s over,” said Clinton’s closest rival, Bernie Sanders, in a tweet that focused on issues that were not covered by the debate. “Not one word about economic inequality, climate change, Citizens United or student debt. That’s why the Republicans are so out of touch.”
Much of the Democratic response focused on the exchanges between Trump and Megyn Kelly. The Fox moderator questioned comments in which he had referred to women variously as “fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals”, only to be brushed off by the billionaire property developer as “politically correct”.
Even Senator Marco Rubio, a more moderate candidate seen as one of the big winners of the night, drew attention to his party’s renewed debates on Planned Parenthood and abortion, appearing to go further than before in arguing against an exception for women who are victims of rape and incest.
The Florida senator doubled down on his comments during an interview with CNN on Friday, insisting that he would always “err on the side of life” even if a woman conceived through rape or incest.
“I personally and honestly and deeply believe that all human life is worthy of protection irrespective of the circumstances in which that human life was created,” Rubio said. “I personally believe that you do not correct one tragedy with a second tragedy – that’s how I personally feel, very strongly about.”
The hard line on abortion, echoed by Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, is seen as a requirement for many candidates to proceed in the Republican primary but a potential liability for whoever emerges to fight the Democratic nominee in November 2016.
“From applauding misogynistic comments, to boasting about defunding women’s healthcare, to opposing a woman’s right to choose – no exceptions – and completely neglecting a discussion around equal pay and the minimum wage, it’s clear no matter who wins, this GOP field is a disaster for women,” said Kaylie Hanson, the DNC director of women’s media.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/07/democrats-jubilant-chaotic-republican-debate
Trump was angry and mouthy Yup, now he needs to pivot and show he can grasp policy with depth and be a mature leader. It’s OK for him to be bombastic at times but he needs to start doing both if people are going to take him seriously.
Trump could’ve had better comebacks last night:
On the question of Trump giving money to the Clintons: Instead of the wedding thing I think he should have simply said, ” I have to give money to both sides in order to compete. All business people do it. This proves the system is broken and I will fix it.”
On his demeaning insults to women: Instead of saying ‘Rosie O’Donnell’ for cheap laughs, he should have said, “Megan, who are you to challenge me about women when your network wouldn’t even let Carly Fiorina up here?”
Thank God Trump doesn’t let lib-tard weenies write his responses. How boring would that be?
the oiligarchy is trying to run a smear campaign against the donald. Thats why nbc canned him.
Trump IS the oligarchy. You freaks can chant “one of us, one of us” all you want, but that doesn’t make it true.
+1
I only watched a little of the debate, but came away depressed. Seriously? That’s the best they’ve got?
I long for the time when one Republican doesn’t thump a bible, or become pro-life for the Fox crowd, and gets boo’d for it.
They would pull some serious support from the middle.
I just heard a guy on NPR say that Donald Trump is what would result if a Yahoo News comment thread achieved sentience.
I heard a guy on AM talk radio say liberals are what result from cousins having sex.
Your goofy outlook on the world is the result of listening to too much right wing AM talk radio.
My favorite was the quote (about Trump) about preparing for the debate being akin to getting ready for a Nascar race, knowing that there was going to be a drunk driver on the track.
Katich seemed like the only decent human being on that stage.
Katich seemed like the only decent human being on that stage.
I agree. That’s why John Kasich expanded Medicaid in Ohio - because he’s a decent person unlike many Repubs. Many Republicans and most of their political leaders lack humanity/humaneness and benevolence. (Family Values my foot.)
Harvard Study: States’ Medicaid expansion refusal will kill thousands
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/31/1270171/-Harvard-Study-States-Medicaid-expansion-refusal-will-kill-nbsp-thousands
Twenty-five states have refused to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. That leaves millions of people in the gap between being poor enough to qualify for existing Medicaid, and too poor to qualify for the subsidies available to buy private insurance on the health exchanges. Refusing the expansion is a political decision by Republican state lawmakers that will have a big economic impact for those states. What it will also cause, according to a new study from Harvard University and the City University of New York, is eight million people remaining uninsured, and up to 17,000 premature and avoidable deaths.
“We predict that many low-income women will forego recommended breast and cervical cancer screening; diabetics will forego medications and all low-income adults will face a greater likelihood of depression, catastrophic medical expenses and death,” researchers wrote in the study, which was released on the website of the journal Health Affairs.
“We calculated the number and characteristics of people who will remain uninsured as a result of their state’s opting out of the Medicaid expansion, and applied these figures to the known effects of insurance expansion from prior studies,” lead author Samuel Dickman said. “The results were sobering. Political decisions have consequences, some of them lethal.”
A few days ago I said a Death Cross was imminent in the Dow Jones average. The Death Cross has arrived — you can see how the blue line (the 40 day moving average) has crossed under the red line (200 day moving average).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p80169410024
Looks oversold and ready for a bounce, but ultimately the chart is weak and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow falls to 16,500 in the next several weeks.
Lather, rinse , repeat? where r we in that cycle?
My guess is that stocks are pricing in some negatives: loss of revenues and earnings due to a contracting China; higher overhead costs from strong domestic job market and upward pressure on wages; pricing in a modest Fed interest rate raise.
what about the smart money handing off the baton to the dumb money and waiting for a panic to buy the same stocks back on sale @ 50-75% off?
what about the smart money handing off the baton to the dumb money and waiting for a panic to buy the same stocks back on sale @ 50-75% off?
That’s what they do on normal, orderly pullbacks, say 15% to 20% down. Bear market but not a crash. Odds are this is what may be unfolding.
When you see 50% or 75% off on stocks that means the smart money is getting creamed, institutions getting hammered. It’s “blood in the streets” as they say. Wall St. firms closing, people getting laid off, etc. But this scenario isn’t likely. Memories of 2008 are too fresh and the smart money is not as exposed and leveraged like they were.
what has really changed since 2008?
Dont the banks have like 55 trillion in derivatives exposure?
Haven’t corporations been borrowing like crazy to buyback stock?
Debt seems higher than last time around.
If the ability to service that debt is impaired sh@t will hit the fan.
what has really changed since 2008? Lots. Big institutions have to meet standards for leverage, liquidity and capital ratios.
Dont the banks have like 55 trillion in derivatives exposure? That number doesn’t mean anything unless you know what they are and what they are used for. Bad if used for speculation, good if used as hedges against a bad market.
Haven’t corporations been borrowing like crazy to buyback stock? A dastardly practice that enriches CEO’s but it isn’t enough to cause another 2008 crash.
Debt seems higher than last time around. There’s a lot less low quality mortgage debt out there right now than last time.
u really are misinformed. keep buying stocks.
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/cashinvestment/cashinvestment_3.19.15
This is interesting data regarding the cash/debt positions of the S&P 500.
Like WPA says, the overall levels of debt doesn’t seem out of whack with long-term averages.
Ponzi markets go up in stair steps and crash down as broken elevators. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow falls below 10,000 in the next several weeks, though Yellen will hit Ctrl-P if it goes under 15,000.
Do u think they pull a PBOC and just start printn and buyn equities to make people feel like they are still buying something of value?
Bend over for more hope ‘n change, taxpayers…Obama’s “generosity” = you getting the bills.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/why-obamas-favorite-student-debt-relief-program-will-cost-taxpayers-100-billion
Dont fight the FED!
They can make things look rosy a lot longer than u can remain solvent.
Why are we a bubble economy now?
Bend over for more hope ‘n change,
Should not a society bear some of the cost of educating its people?
Why would it not? What great country in the world does not bear some of the cost of educating its people?
There’s some mighty pre-suppositions there, Rio. The primary one: we are paying people to breed, whose outcomes don’t have a prayer of becoming what used to be called “informed citizens”.
The “informed citizens” standard is so far beyond the FSA ken, that the standard is taken as a joke.
Yet we pay them to breed.
There are plenty of misinformed American citizens. They exist at every income level. They’re not all poor. The members of the comfortable classes are particularly poorly informed about what life is like for the majority of population.
The “informed citizens” standard is so far beyond the FSA ken, that the standard is taken as a joke.
Yet we pay them to breed.
Well if a country is actually “paying people to breed”. (Which I’m not sure is much a factor in the big picture because people breed. It’s what they do.) Then that country bears some responsibility to educate them as well.
A lot of great countries provide “free” education to most their population. I’m just saying taxpayers paying some student debt write-offs accomplishes a similar outcome.
The USA higher educational system is a racket that binds our youth to lifelong debt. Maybe some of those loans should be written off.
lol @ Lola
An age old technical analysis tool like the 40 dma crossing the 200 dma is something new? Really?
yeah buddy buy some more social media stocks!
Nowhere did I say it was “new.” Now you’re just making up stuff.
“Death Cross”?
Youre a drama queen.
Troll.
Fixt for you
TrollSlayer
Junk bond investors bailing. This is going to be 2008 all over again.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/high-yield-bond-investors-head-for-exits-2015-08-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
No, the conditions are completely different today compared to 2008. Banks are not leveraged 40x on commodities and bad mortgages this time. It’s completely different. As you have said to other on this board: *learn* the difference.
Theyre levered up 80X on derivatives and mortgages this time.
Learn it my friend.
Theyre levered up 80X on derivatives and mortgages this time.
Please share a link to back up this assertion.
Banks are not leveraged 40x on commodities and bad mortgages this time.
Please share a link to back up this assertion.
I admit I was on the high side, the leverage ratio was 33x not 40x: http://goo.gl/hoKzZZ
Your link demonstrating 80x today?
That’s great Poverty Queen. Now post the chart of today’s leverage ratios
And besides, the last time there was some uncertainty about whether the Feds would step in and bail out the banksters.
Now? No doubt whatsoever.
So, keep rowing you worthless slaves. We gotta get back to Rome.
we need to print some more cash so stocks go up in price.
On the treadmill now watching some FoxNewsHate and see this commercial:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150807_111730.jpg
Nose and ear hair removal, LOLZ. That’s the base that 2brony is trying to rally
Really really really old
Young libertarians are taking over, and you dinosaurs need to just die already
As long as the government keeps it’s filthy hands off their medicare, they’ll be kept around in feeble bodies, their decayed minds vomiting up platitudes from the angry channel.
We’ve got another 20 years of shrieking old people.
Every time I turn on e television I get depressed. I don’t watch the shows. But even when I watch a game, the military recruiting ads are depressing, but it is not just military. This society is so shallow and I am darn sure I would be a sheep if I had a girlfriend who insists I watch TV with her.
Its the sizzle, not the steak!
Take on the BLS report of today from the Burning Platform……
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/08/07/another-bls-bullshit-report-101k-more-people-employed-144k-leave-workforce/#more-103324
Neocon attack ad (John Bolton, PUKE) on Rand Paul about Iran:
http://www.businessinsider.com/rand-paul-attack-ad-on-iran-john-bolton-2015-8
Iran has a population of about 80,000,000
When Scott Walker launches a ground invasion of Iran on the day of his inauguration it’s gonna take alot of boots on the ground
Is it possible the PPT are protecting their own investments?
I got back to Phoenix today, my day off from work. Of course I got my lease renewal in the mail. My lease expires October 7, which is 61 or 62 days from now. I have to give a 60 day notice. The office was closing in two hours so I went straight from my mailbox to the leasing office and filled out the form.
My rent would have been unchanged, about $1100 including water. It was useful for my tax break when I was a consultant but my expenses for this additional place were about $19,000 per year. Mostly a vacant place. My tax break went away two years ago.
Time to get lean and mean and live up to my old reputation of renting cheap. I will cut my annual shelter expenses down from 35,000 to 17000.
So officially I will vacate my Phoenix address in early October. Will be nice to stop selling stocks to pay for nonsense.
phony scandals
Region IV