Bits Bucket for August 10, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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CR8R
Rumors of commodities’ demise are not being exaggerated
Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
15 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
Into the futures: Commodity collapse continues
Commodities are the gift that keep on not giving.
The sector is in the throes of an ‘annus horribilis’, having gotten wrecked over the past few years despite massive liquidity that should have boosted their value. Bullish investor after bullish investor has tried to call a bottom, in a set of calls that now appear ill-conceived and money losing.
In the past week, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has dropped 3.4 percent in the past week (SIC), as crude oil plunged 7 percent to hit multi-month lows, and a host of metals fell alongside it.
That, of course, hardly marks the first big drop for the alternative investment group. That widely watched commodity index has fallen 17 percent the last three months, and a whopping 42 percent in the past two years.
…
CNBC just declared that commodities only go down?
Forbes
Panos Mourdoukoutas, Contributor
I cover global markets, business and investment strategy
Markets
8/09/2015 @ 9:52AM
China’s Exports Plunge — More Bad News For Commodities?
China’s exports plunged 8.3% in July, far worse than expected, as China gets a taste of the other side of globalization – whereby a slow down in one area of the world spreads to another, in a vicious cycle of decline.
For years, China has been the largest beneficiary of globalization, riding a virtuous cycle of global growth in China’s three largest export markets – European Union, the US, and Japan. But with the EU floundering in the swamp of stagnation, caused by austerity; with the US barely growing under massive QE and with Japan trying to shake off two lost decades of economic growth, China’s export growth engine is running in reverse in all three regions.
Exports to the European Union dropped by 12.3% in July while those to the United States dropped 1.3%. Exports to Japan dropped by a whopping 13%.
China’s export plunge is consistent with a host of other macroeconomic data, dashing hopes for a recovery in the world’s second largest economy anytime soon.
…
“For years, China has been the largest beneficiary of globalization, riding a virtuous cycle of global growth in China’s three largest export markets – European Union, the US, and Japan.”
Three largest export markets that have been driven by borrowed money.
“But with the EU floundering in the swamp of stagnation, caused by austerity; with the US barely growing under massive QE and with Japan trying to shake off two lost decades of economic growth, China’s export growth engine is running in reverse in all three regions.”
Translation: The borrowed money that previously powered the three economies (which in turn previously powered the economy of China) has either dried up or is being redirected elsewhere.
And this is all a big surprise because …?
….because given that the borrowed money comes from the electronic printing press, the limits on the ability of governments to virtually print more and loan it out seem unclear.
Limits unclear.
Not anymore. The limits are not unclear anymore. Or they do not seem to be unclear anymore.
Whatever. Stay tuned.
The paper tiger comes roaring back. lol.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/greed-makes-a-comeback-in-china-as-hot-new-trade-sparks-5-rally
The limit to lending fiat is the capacity of borrowers to repay the loans. Borrowers can only repay loans if they are productive. It’s grow or die.
‘One of China’s best known television presenters is to face “severe punishment” after being caught on camera referring to his country’s Great Helmsman, Mao Zedong, as an “old son of a bitch”.
‘Bi Fujian was one of the most recognisable faces on state broadcaster CCTV. The 56-year-old had worked for the channel since 1989. However, Bi’s future at the channel was cast into doubt in April after he was filmed at a private dinner mocking Chairman Mao, who founded the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and ran it until his death in 1976.’
‘Those “disparaging” remarks represented “a serious violation of political disciplines”, China’s media watchdog announced on Sunday. It called for CCTV, which had already suspended its star presenter, to impose a “severe punishment”.
In an editorial the China Discipline Inspection Daily, a state-run newspaper, said CCTV had been ordered to “educate its entire staff” in order to “combat behaviours that violate political disciplines and regulations”. “There should be zero tolerance for such cases,” the newspaper added.’
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/10/top-chinese-tv-presenter-to-face-severe-punishment-for-mao-insult
“In an editorial the China Discipline Inspection Daily, a state-run newspaper, said CCTV had been ordered to “educate its entire staff” in order to “combat behaviours that violate political disciplines and regulations”. “There should be zero tolerance for such cases,” the newspaper added.’”
Gee, this sounds so familiar. As if similar things happen in the US, you know?
“The limit to lending fiat is the capacity of borrowers to repay the loans.”
Are you perhaps forgetting about bailouts?
All Mao did was cause the death of millions of people. Why would someone call him a bad name?
“bailouts?”
Haven’t forgotten, but I think it just distorted reality temporarily.
All Mao did was cause the death of millions of people.
What do Mao and today’s Repubs have in common? They both waged wars against intellectuals and intelligence. Mao with his “Cultural Revolution” and Repubs being by being willfully ignorant, anti-Science and hostile and derisive towards education and the educated.
The Republican war on intelligence
http://skullsinthestars.com/2008/09/16/the-republican-war-on-intelligence/
Reveling in ignorance has helped the Republicans avoid a number of scientific debates that they’ve been on the losing side of: stem cell research, global warming, evolution. Although the scientific consensus in each case is overwhelmingly against the Republicans’ views, they’ve managed to muddy the waters by treating education, and intelligence in general, as topics of derision.
…..the Republicans have gotten a lot of political mileage out of emphasizing the role of ‘bias’ in news and academic sources and downplaying the value of education and knowledge in general.
lol@Lola
really, who called oil crash?
can’t find any one
The oil crash is only one symptom of peak credit. There are many and it isn’t a surprise. If you haven’t heard the warnings to not go long commodities you haven’t been listening.
‘can’t find any one’
I recall questioning a $300 a night hotel room in Carlsbad, amongst other lunacies.
Commodities’ bear market might portend global slump
By Tom Hudson The Miami Herald •
Monday August 10, 2015 12:31 AM
Remember peak oil? Recall the gold rush? Who can forget beans in the teens?
It was just a few years ago when the prices of commodities were skyrocketing, fueling worries about uncontrolled inflation and a global rush to secure raw materials. Crude oil was stubbornly over $100 a barrel. Coffee prices doubled in a year. Gold flirted with $2,000 an ounce.
Not these days. Commodity prices have cratered, with many down more than 20 percent from their bull-market highs of 2012 and 2013. While a lot of the attention given to the commodity price drop has focused on the fall in oil and gold prices, falling prices elsewhere are worth watching in the weeks and months ahead.
Contributing to the bear market in commodities is the anticipation of higher interest rates to come. Those expectations have financial interests leaving commodities behind.
The drop in oil, soybean and sugar prices means more stable prices for consumers. That’s generally good news for investors. But does it portend a falloff in global economic activity? Commodity prices can be the proverbial canary for the world economy.
…
Coffee? Has that market been infested with leveraged speculators too, or is it more a proxy for drought in South America?
MoneyControl dot com
Why fall in commodities is worrisome for an investor
10 Aug 2015 01:14 PM
Vikas Singhania
For an equity investor it is important to know where the commodity markets are headed. Their direction is generally the first tell-tale sign of where the equity markets will go. Unfortunately commodities are not headed in the right direction.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has hit a 13 year low, with hard commodities leading the fall. Prices fall either on account of excess supply or lower demand. This time around lower demand from across the globe has been the main reason for the fall. Moreover, the recent development of the Federal Reserve in the USA increasing the interest rates has also impacted commodity prices.
Fall is commodities have picked up after troubling news started coming from China. Its slowing economy was pushed further down the road by a crashing stock market. Ever since the Chinese government decided to shift its economy’s focus from manufacturing to consumption the country has been in trouble.
A government induced housing bubble burst left behind unoccupied ghost towns across the country. This has left the younger generation in a quandary. Since consumption by the younger generation was expected to propel growth, loss in equity markets will delay the economic recovery.
Soon after China’s equity markets crashed, fall in commodities picked up speed. But prices at 13 year lows indicate that they are now trading below the prices at which they did during the worst times of Lehman crisis. What then is the commodity market signalling?
Commodity prices generally lead equity markets because they signal the actual development in the real economy. As economic activities picks up, raw materials consumption are the first to increase. Conversely as economic activity slows, requirement for raw material slows leading to a fall in price.
China has had a very high influence on commodities over the past two decades. The country is presently the leadingconsumer of most of the raw materials, accounting for nearly half the world consumption in some cases. Hard commodities like copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, iron ore, steel, coal, nickel and lead owe a large part of their price rise over the last decade to China. But now copper trades at a six year low, so are aluminium and nickel, two other lead indicators of economic strength.
Lower prices of these commodities have started to have an impact on the producing countries. Australian dollar is trading at a six year low because it is a large exporter of iron ore, coal and other minerals. Brazil the other major commodity supplier in the world is also affected by falling prices with its country’s currency – Real trading at a 10-year low against the dollar.
Apart from hard commodities, oil the other indicator of economic activities too is witnessing lower demand on account of a global slowdown. Crude oil has also been affected by the recently signed deal between the USA and Iran, which will lead to higher supplies from the Arab nation. The commodity slipped further to a four month low after the Chinese market crashed.
The other factor that is affecting commodity markets is a possibility of interest rate hike by USA’s Federal Reserve. Higher interest rate attracts investors to the bond market and away from commodities that generally do not earn any interests. Higher interest rate in the USA also strengthens the currency, thus increasing the cost of holding the commodity.
One of the biggest casualties of the prospect of rising interest rates in the USA and a slowing Chinese economy is Gold. Gold trades at a five year low, retracing more than half of its decade long rally.
Though commodities have fallen quite a bit, they still have some distance to go, if we consider how global events are unfolding. The full impact of the recentcrash in equity market on Chinese economy is not yet clear. It will take some time to percolate down. In the case of US, Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen is yet to decide on raising interest rates. Market reaction will depend on the quantum of the increase and its timing.
Also, there are no signs yet that global economies are out of the wood, which will keep commodity markets depressed. Impact of China on non-commodity countries is yet to be seen. China was a major trading partner for a number of developed countries.
…
When did the Fed increase rates? Did I miss something?
When did the Fed increase rates? Did I miss something ??
The strong dollar has the same effect as rising rates on the rest of the world…If we compound that with rate increases, it will have even further negative impacts on almost all of the world economies even the strong ones…The FED is trapped in a corner…
The effects will mainly be felt by those countries that peg their currencies to ours, like China, Honk Kong and Korea. But why the Fed should take into consideration the effects on them I don’t know, especially since their reason for the peg is to give themselves an advantage when it comes to trade.
Dman</b: The effects will mainly be felt by those countries that peg their currencies to ours, like China, Honk Kong and Korea. But why the Fed should take into consideration the effects on them I don’t know, especially since their reason for the peg is to give themselves an advantage when it comes to trade.
Their pain may project onto us. Specifically onto various big donors / politically connected individuals. Like the trans-national Davos crowd.
So - if that happens, those people will influence decision makers here to remove the pain they are feeling.
“The Bloomberg Commodity Index has hit a 13 year low, with hard commodities leading the fall. Prices fall either on account of excess supply or lower demand.”
Hmmmm… this excess supply was financed by … mostly financed by borrowed money. And the demand that is now lower, it too was financed by … financed by borrowed money.
Well now, isn’t that interesting? - both the supply and the demand was mostly financed by - was mostly powered by - borrowed money. And the jobs associated with this borrowed money? Why, in a sense, the jobs were also borrowed.
And so now what happens if and when all this borrowed money gets yanked away? What happens to the value of the loans that are associated with producing commodities that are in excess supply? What happens to the value of loans that are associated with lower demand? What happens to the jobs?
Is it true that the value of these loans will be diminished - maybe even destroyed all together? Is it also true that one person’s loan is somebody else’s money?
Isn’t this fun? Now you see it and now you don’t. Now you look at your stock mutual fund statement or your junk bond mutual fund statement and it tells you that your are rich. Next year you may look at these same statements and it just may tell you that you have lost your ass.
But at least you will still have your job … oh, wait!
At least you still have your retirement pension. Oh wait…
Stock markets do not consume commodities. Building consumes commodities. Building in China faltered before the stock market blowoff.
“Stock markets do not consume commodities. Building consumes commodities.”
Agree. But money obtained from floating shares of stock go into building things and these things that are built consume commodities.
And then there’s the wealth effect: If the shares of stock rise then the owner of the shares will feel rich and hence will increase his spending and increased spending will tend to increase production of things - the building of things - and the production of things consumes commodities.
So a rising stock market has two effects: It will finance the production of companies that otherwise would never spring forth into existence, and it will create a sense of wealth among the possessors of these rising stocks who will then spend money that they otherwise would not spend.
crater
crater to you.
I see yer crater and raise you a crater.
Two craters and a cup of rage. You fold?
Is a September rate hike completely off the table at this point?
Never was on the table. Its all hype. The economy is cratering and they know it.
The PTB needs to threaten a future rate hike so as to get economic activity going now while rates are still “affordable”, but the PTB can’t actually raise rates because doing so will convert the term “affordable” into the term “unaffordable”, and if you convert something that is affordable into something that is unaffordable then much-needed economic transactions will not occur.
So, IMHO, a good bet is that the PTB will forever threaten rate hikes but will forever postpone these threatened rate hikes.
Forever or whenever reality kicks in - whatever happens first.
‘If only we could have a do-over. Many of us have a few things we’d love to go back and change — choices we made in school, our careers or life in general. And then there’s retirement. A few things come up repeatedly when you ask retirees what they would do differently.’
‘One of the biggest regrets, of course, is not saving enough, especially when they were young. The power of compound interest is critical in retirement — you would have so much more in that retirement account had you been serious about saving in your 20’s or 30’s and not waited until your 40’s or, for some, their 50s. (For example, $10,000 invested at 4 percent with compound interest becomes $14,802 in 10 years. That $10,000 turns into $48,010 over 40 years.)’
“You have to give that money time to grow,” says Paul Saganey, president of Integrated Financial Partners in Waltham, Mass. “You can’t wake up at 57 or 58 and say, ‘I want a great life.’ ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/get-there/plan-and-save-for-retirement-you-wont-regret-it/2015/08/07/85769318-3a28-11e5-8e98-115a3cf7d7ae_story.html?tid=hpModule_79c38dfc-8691-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394&hpid=z13
most people will be living on a ss check for retirement. They cant save any money. most are use to living like a pauper so it will be nothing new. Dollar stores and walmart will keep them going.
I agree AZ…I see it all the time in our travels in the Motor Home…Just saw it this weekend in Reno…
most people will be living on a ss check for retirement. They cant save any money. most are use to living like a pauper so it will be nothing new
You’re exaggerating there. Most Americans are not currently living like paupers.
A negative net worth=pauper
Get it right.
There are a lot of people who many have a negative net worth, but live like they have money.
Theyre called paupers. Ask our very own Donk Craterton.
Now that September is almost here, the Fed is predictably walking back it’s previous jawboning about a rate rise. The plunder of the 99% by the Fed’s .1% confederates will not be interrupted any time soon.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-rate-hike-until-fed-sees-inflation-returning-to-normal-fischer-2015-08-10?dist=beforebell
“for some, their 50s…”
I can personally say that it is not too late at age 50 to get out of debt, get out of the mainstream lifestyle (expensive) and save for retirement.
That’s impressive and encouraging!
“…it is not too late at age 50 to get out of debt…”
If you are in the last few innings of life without a college degree then you are likely finished if your principal means of generating income is physical labor. Most of my friends in this cohort quit working in their mid-fifties.
Or you could have done what the conventional wisdom said and went whole hog on a house in your 20s and still be massively underwater unless you then chose to reject conventional wisdom and walked away from it long ago.
Isn’t this retirement advice, like, 25 years outdated?
Maybe the “Borrowing will make you rich” meme is more modern?
Don’t forget strategic bankruptcies and foreclosures! We’re all living the Trump life.
Or you could build your house with cash withdrawals from an ATM.
“Saving” is the new code word for “investing all your money in the stock market”.
“Saving” in a DebtDonkey word is borrowing and spending $5 on depreciating assets for every dollar saved.
“One of the biggest regrets, of course, is not saving enough, especially when they were young.”
That’s because they slid into *unprecedented* retirements… Boomer retirements, loaded up with a mortgage, two car loans, massive credit-card debt, etc. In short, they aren’t really retirements.
I save well enough but I don’t save like a fiend. Why would I need to? I’m young enough to live for today since that’s what LIVING is all about, and I’m not going to slide into retirement in 20 years while loaded up with a mortgage and a bevy of other unpaid loans. In fact, I own my home outright NOW. That will provide great relief since in living in the Rust Belt as a man in my 40s I’m naturally encountering problems remaining employed.
I calculated my savings rate a couple years ago when I did not have to sell stocks to stay out of debt: 32%. These days I could easily save 18%. Salary dropped in 2013.
Could someone tell me where I can get 4% interest on cash savings? I can’t find a CD or term deposit anywhere near that!
Rule of 72.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72
72 divided by 0 = ?
a rainbow of flavors.
ZIRP and QE are the Fed’s primary tools for effecting the transfer of wealth from the 99% to it’s .1% accomplices in the financial sector. They are not going to discontinue those rackets anytime soon, despite any jawboning to the contrary.
Is a September rate hike completely off the table at this point ??
I think the question the FED is probably asking themselves is which date will have the least negative impact on our economy AND other world economies…December is probably a better time for a .0025 move…That would be my bet unless we see a big spike in the coming retail or Industrial manufacturing numbers…
Marketwatch dot com
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks test new intraday highs on hint of later rate hike
Published: Aug 10, 2015 2:20 p.m. ET
By Wallace Witkowski, Reporter, & Mark DeCambre
U.S. stocks moved sharply higher and kept testing new intraday highs Monday, buoyed by remarks from one Federal Reserve official suggesting a September interest-rate hike may not be a done deal as well as a bounce-back in Chinese stocks.
The main U.S. indexes have been weighed by worries about the prospect a slowdown in Asia as well as impending tightening of U.S. monetary policy.
…
Gawd, I loathe globalization. Words fail me.
If you would a “Ruin Porn” (I did not invent this phrase, just Google it) tour guide of the postindustrial wasteland of Cleveland and Akron, just let me know
I can provide you the half-day tour, the full-day, or the multi-day
Those are some disturbing pictures….
There are factories within the city of Detroit that are supposedly symbols of postindustrial decline, but are actually just too expensive to demolish. In the 1920’s, factories were built to standards we would apply to fallout shelters today. The Model T plant in Highland Park (a city I posted a link to last week) is still standing almost a hundred years later. And it’s not going to be torn down because the land isn’t needed. As a history buff, I like seeing the old buildings and homes still standing, even if they’re dilapidated. Not everything has to be strip malls and McMansions.
I think Goon was making a comment about the lack of US manufacturing anymore.
If the land, structures and cheap workforce are there, waiting to be used, ask yourself the hard question about why exactly industrialists aren’t taking up those opportunities. (Keep in mind how cheap water is by the Great Lakes, too.)
Here’s a hint: It rhymes with “union”.
What rhymes with “Mexico?”
Tariff?
The antonym of union is poverty. And even if it’s true that water is cheap near the Great Lakes, it probably represents a very small portion of manufacturing costs.
The antonym of union is poverty.
Sorry, that’s propaganda. No sane employer allows a union into his company. As commonly practiced, unions drive up labor costs, make it fiendishly complicated to deal with any employee issue, and most appallingly, they protect the exact type of worker that nobody sane wants to keep employed. That drives employers away or out of business, which increases unemployment.
It’s nothing but propaganda that you either choose a union or you choose poverty. The reality is that you either choose employment or unemployment, and unions are always on the unemployment side. People who vote to unionize ‘their’ companies only end up unemployed soon. Companies have lots of options now, and they will continue to do so while the petroleum flows so freely. Globalism and regionalism give them great power. And that will be the case for decades. Companies can survive those decades, but YOU can’t survive even a few months. So the rational man concludes, NO UNION. Rational men choose to be employed, even if it’s a lower wage. A lower wage is still better than NO WAGE.
BetterRenter, all you say is correct, but you can go even further.
with the more efficient production of non union companies, there is added strength to the dollar. therefore, if all else were equal, employees buying power would increase even without a raise. and with the rising prosperity as a result, they would even be more likely to be able to get a raise in addition.
if anything, unions are a synonym to poverty, not an antonym, just like you were saying.
Unions do a great job at setting a minimum wage. They do a horrible job if you’re a go getter and want to advance. Unions rob workers of opportunity.
yes, and according to schiff, unions were the first to demand a minimum wage. do you know why? because they wanted to protect their own wages by making sure no one could undercut them. that’s right, more protectionism.. and you already know what ALL protectionism is.. it’s simply price fixing. ANY form of protectionism is an attempt to fix prices. and that is antithetical to what a free market is. simply put, unions (all of them) attempt to price fix wages. they wouldn’t do it if they understood that ultimately they are cutting their own throats.
Looks like endless waves of new Democrat-on-Arrival entitlement voters are on the way from El Salvador.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/el-salvador-flight-for-life-from-the-worlds-most-dangerous-country-10447708.html
Interesting article. Makes me wonder if Mexico has cut some sort of deal with the US, to detain and deport Central Americans, in exchange for favored treatment for their citizens residing in the US.
From what I’ve heard, the violence in El Salvador makes the worst parts of Mexico look like a peaceful paradise. This could get very interesting and very tragic for many US citizens.
The support that we gave to the military dictators back in the days of Carter and Reagan probably played a part in getting El Salvador to its current state of affairs.
So what…we got it coming? You’ll feel the same way if they end up in your neighborhood…or perhaps you’re confident they won’t so you can afford to be glib about it?
I didn’t say that we got it coming and I didn’t intend to be glib. It’s just a fact that we supported a junta that had death squads killing political opponents. You rarely read about this sort of thing going on in Costa Rica.
The US can’t support the rest of the world, or be blamed for all their problems.
The support that we gave to the military dictators back in the days of Carter and Reagan probably played a part in getting El Salvador to its current state of affairs.
El Salvador’s worst gangs, MS-13 and M-18, were originally formed in a Los Angeles neighborhood among Salvadoran refugees, mostly illegal, who had fled El Salvador’s civil war in the 1980s between the communist FSLN and the oligarch-backed government (some choice). The gang-bangers would be caught commiting crimes, then deported back to a country they barely knew anymore. So they’d band together in El Salvador, and MS-13 was born. M-18 was formed under similar circumstances.
SJWs gonna W:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/08/10/shots-fired-at-police-during-late-night-ferguson-protest
Better ban guns and raise taxes, LOLZ
Meanwhile, real journalists are desperately scrambling to find a 5th grade school photo of the gunman to distribute to AP, Reuters, CNN, MSNBC and contact his 45 year old grandmother to get requisite quote about how he was “turning his life around”
Social Justice Warriors™ can’t script this narrative, because I just did it for you
Don’t forget the part about being an aspiring rapper.
China is dumping US Treasuries to raise the liquidity needed to keep its Ponzi markets from crashing, which would likely cause serious unrest. What happens if the US can’t sell its debt at the current ludicrous levels of return? If the market dictates that the US has to offer more than 4% yield to attract buyers, the Fed’s bond-buying spree that has swollen its balance sheet by $4 trillion is likely going to come to a screeching halt, which would cause the bottom to drop out of the stock market.
Eat a healthy diet. Avoid stress. Get plenty of rest and exercise. Get out and stay out of debt.
Get out and stay out of debt ??
Apple has 45.5 billion in Debt…Its not about Debt…Its about revenue…
If you are deeply in debt and revenue surprises to the downside, you will learn otherwise.
‘Blame it on shoddy merchandise, the wrong size or buyers’ remorse: What consumers worldwide buy and then return totals a staggering $642.6 billion annually.’
‘The value of goods that consumers decide they don’t really want would rank as the world’s 21st largest economy, behind Switzerland and ahead of Argentina, based on the World Bank’s most recent available global economies’ ranking. Put another way, it equals the combined sales of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp., Best Buy Co., Gap Inc.and Macy’s Inc.’
‘U.S. consumers are the biggest contributor to global returns — $221.7 billion worth a year, according to market research firm IHL.’
‘Clothing retailers see an average of 10% of their sales returned, the highest among retail segments. Electronics, books and other hard-goods retailers follow, with an average of 8.8% returns.’
‘Why is this a big problem? Only 48% of what’s returned can be resold at full price, according to a Gartner survey of 300 retailers. Most of those surveyed expect returns will grow as they increase online sales and increasingly offer free returns along with free shipping.’
‘The biggest reason for returns is defective or poor-quality products. But consumers also return items because they bought the wrong item or size, or found a lower price elsewhere. And fraud, including so-called wardrobing, or consumers wearing clothes with the tags still on and then bringing back the item, is behind a growing number of returns.’
‘Fraudulent returns in the U.S. totaled $10.85 billion in 2014, a 23% increase from 2012, according to a National Retail Federation survey.’
‘Andrea Wetherald and Sara Longo love to talk and swap clothes. Since last fall, they’ve been developing a solution, an app called Share Closet that will help people show, swap and sell apparel, shoes and accessories without the trouble of hauling bags to traditional clothing swaps.’
‘For Ms. Wetherald, the app is more than just a fashion aide. It’s a tool for promoting a more sustainable, giving lifestyle, something she witnessed during a college trip to Botswana.’
“In their culture they just shared everything,” she said. “It was a cultural faux pas if someone needed something, and you had it, not to share it with them. They were so happy and they had this incredible sense of family and friendship, and I kept thinking there has to be a way for this culture to be more approachable in the United States.”
Apple is a logical construct. The actual, physical things which direct Apple are the executives. You can rest assured they are not deeply in debt.
Best. Advice. Today.
“What happens if the US can’t sell its debt at the current ludicrous levels of return?”
The rational answer would be that the US would have to somehow learn to live within its means.
That, IMHO, is the rational answer. But good luck to that.
Hold on! Here’s a guy with the answer. Very impressive. If he would ever decide to run for President I just might vote for him:
http://www.redstate.com/diary/alanjoelny/2013/01/15/full-text-of-obamas-speech-against-raising-the-debt-ceiling-in-2006/
LOL!
If China is dumping Treasurys, how come yields aren’t popping (as some predicted would happen)?
If China is dumping Treasurys, how come yields aren’t popping
Volume of liquidity (world savings glut) > bonds for sale
There are plenty of buyers for Treasurys, with or without China. With the current state of the world economy, where else can people park their money?
If the market dictates that the US has to offer more than 4% yield to attract buyers,
This won’t happen with a global savings glut. There’s too many dollars and euros chasing yield and safety. Over the past month with the market stress in commodities and the Chinese stock market — and even with Fed noise about raising rates — the 30 year Treas has dropped from 3.2% to 2.8%.
the 30 year Treas has dropped from 3.2% to 2.8% ??
Exactly….Both Germany & the Swiss have negative treasury yields…Any raise in rates here will attract more buying driving the yield down…At least in this current environment…
… and lower treasury yields mean lower mortgage rates, allowing the housing market to go up another notch! In the last month the national average 30-yr mortgage has dipped below 4% again, following the treasury yields.
Are you sure?
US Housing Demand Plunges To 20 Year Low On Falling Borrowing Costs
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqSztKilps8/VFlPKlr52JI/AAAAAAAAhKU/v5oS41S-y0s/s1600/MBANov52014.PNG
Donald Trump sure sucked all the air out of the room of the Repub cabal meeting that disinvited him. Fox showed the debate again last night.
The country clubbers and canapé types are worried.
In 2008 and 2012, the Oligopoly could rest assured after 95% of the electorate bent over for them by voting for their stooges Obama, McCain, and Romney. Now a portion of the sheeple are finally, belatedly, starting to wake up. While I’ve assumed that you can’t fix stupid, and 100% of the people who voted for Obama, McCain, and Romney are stupid, it’s worth noting that a majority of eligible voters didn’t both to vote in 2008 and 2012. Were they indifferent, or were they intelligent enough to recognize that participating in Wall Street’s Republicrat Kabuki theater was giving implicit sanction to the Oligopoly’s larceny against the 99%? That is going to be the central question going forward, if Americans in large numbers refuse to support Oligopoly-annointed candidates and demand REAL change and reform.
LOL, he really did. According to one guy who attended the meetup and posted online, people were leaving early.
And I have to post this again:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sexist-jerk-erick-erickson-slams-donald-trump-for-being-sexist_55c68260e4b0923c12bd1647
This is the fat cuck who “dis-invited” Donald Trump, for being sexist. lol.
REDSTATE would more aptly be named REDMEAT, since its main function is to provide boob bait to mouth-breathing proles who think it’s some sort of “conservative” site, when in fact it is a cuckservative site.
Ray, you should be loving Trump. He’s a big business guy, but he won’t hesitate using the bankruptcy laws. He calls Megyn Kelly a bimbo, he likes single-payer health care, he hates illegal immigration, he calls Frank Luntz a low-class slob, he calls out politicians (even Hilary) for pay-for-play, he calls out Fox as ratings-mongerers, and in general he calls a spade a spade. And gets away with it. A real Teflon Don.
In other words, he could attract the entire spectrum of the “fed-up” vote, from Wall Street to Occupy Wall Street. And he’s got the ego and the money to stay in the race just to make a point, even if he only gets 5% of the vote. It’s enough to upset the entire apple cart and both parties know it. No wonder they fear him.
In other words, he could attract the entire spectrum of the “fed-up” vote
He can take the center to right “fed up” vote but Bernie Sanders is taking the center to left “fed up” vote. As I posted below, he’s drawing the largest crowds of any candidate, including Trump.
Trump/Sanders for the independent ticket?
Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich were the original independent ticket
But that ship has sailed…
“Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich were the original independent ticket”
Yes, sigh.
Randers 2016?
Man, what a messed up party. Some of you actually think Democrats are scared of Trump? If you think that, you don’t know the makeup of your own country imo.
Bad news, Republicans: Donald Trump is practically bulletproof
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/08/10/bad-news-republicans-donald-trump-is-practically-bulletproof/
….If you’re a Republican, you may be telling yourself that this will get sorted out eventually, and your party will get itself a real nominee. And you’d be right. But by the time that happens, the party will have spent months tying itself in knots. The voters Trump represents will be only more convinced that their party is, in the words Trump himself might use, a bunch of total losers. The GOP’s image is already hurting, not only among voters in general but also among its own partisans; according to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 32 percent of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and only 68 percent of Republicans view it favorably (86 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of their party).
Ray, you should be loving Trump. He’s a big business guy, but he won’t hesitate using the bankruptcy laws. He calls Megyn Kelly a bimbo, he likes single-payer health care, he hates illegal immigration, he calls Frank Luntz a low-class slob, he calls out politicians (even Hilary) for pay-for-play, he calls out Fox as ratings-mongerers, and in general he calls a spade a spade.
Trump has been a breath of fresh air in this race and showed up the Oligopoly-owned Establishment GOP clown car candidates as the empty suits that they are. That said, he has the makings of being a meglamaniac. The comments made about Megyn Kelly were churlish and ungentlemanly - she was not out of line to ask him legitimate questions, and he was way out of line basically indicating she was on the rag for doing so. Very bad form and unpardonable in my book. His comments about “taking the oil” and putting boots on the ground to secure the theft don’t sit well with me, either.
Nobody had even heard of that event before Trump was uninvited to it.
I like the fact that Trump is rattling cages and daring to talk about not button issues that both parties agree on - like de facto open borders.
However, he’s half nuts. Attacking Megyn Kelly because she has a period is… stupid. I looked at that comment, tried to understand some other context it could conceivably be taken in, and found none.
not button = hot button
Another article for the Social Justice Warriors™ (this is the bits bucket)
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/newsy/caitlyn-jenner-considers-dating-men-on-i-am-cait
Where is this all going, you may wonder? Within a decade, any hetero man who rejects the advances of these transgender creatures will be convicted of a federal hate crime and sentenced to life in the reeducation camp
This is the “fundamental transformation” that you were promised, LOLZ
Just was witness to a pair of lesbo’s openly holding hands on the streets here in Chicago on my way to work this morning. What’s with these bozo’s, have they no shame? I just stared at ‘em and went on my way.
Now, now, rj. Everybody has a right to love the person, animal, robot, or inanimate object of their choosing.
I’m just sharing some analysis and observations on what my SJW betters have given me. It is sad that the ratings for Caitlyn’s show are plummeting. Maybe a cameo from King Obama or Empress Hillary can provide the ratings bump that Kanye West failed to deliver…
Thanks for lifting my countenance today there Goon.
Did you get to the high country this weekend?
If so - where?
If a pair of lezbos or homos want to hold hands in the street, really, I think we all have better things to fret about.
” I think we all have better things to fret about.”
Remember the good old days, though, when we could chase them down and beat them for holding hands?
We’ve lost that freedom.
‘Remember the good old days, though, when we could chase them down and beat them for holding hands’
I don’t remember those days old fella. But you hang in there posting at your age.
Trump just lost my vote. “Boots on the ground” to steal any oil patch we covet? I don’t think so.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-trumps-plan-for-islamic-state-put-a-ring-around-it-2015-8
Is anyone who is running not going to put boots on the ground? I’m sure it’s been mentioned here but I missed it.
Rand Paul, if he can stick to his principles. I haven’t heard Ben Carson’s take on it though. He’s a possibility.
As far as Trump goes, the above statement is a disappointment to say the least but I like how he called Crimea Europe’s problem to deal with.
yes, two things I don’t like about Trump: the bellicose statements and his position on Snowden, who should receive a Medal of Freedom.
It was funny to watch Rand dance around the Israel question a bit, but glad he didn’t cave. I was surprised he didn’t get booed (how dare we not bow to Bibi?). Everyone else is bloodthirsty.
My thought on that is this: any politician or banker who wants “boots on the ground” needs to send those boots with the feet of their children in them.
For me, I wanna see boots in the arse of the political class.
Yet another article for the Social Justice Warriors™ who don’t give a sh*t about young black males murdering other young black males in the streets of urban America, because there’s no narrative to script from it other than some feeble wailing about evil rich white Republicans:
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/how-to/marketing/2015/08/walter-palmer-cecil-lion-damaged-online-reviews.html
What happened to ice bucket challenge?
Or #BringBackOurGirls?
Or #Kony2012?
The ice bucket thing must have raised some money for charity and then it came it to an end. It would have been foolish to expect it to go on forever.
Whatever happened to that Kony guy? The last I knew he was walking back and forth in some LA neighborhood, nude and talking to himself.
There’s a Lola joke in there somewhere but I’m not sure I post regularly enough to get away with making it.
Was there a webcam around?
It was her.
How about a “Here’s My Wallet Challenge” where a privileged hipster millennial films himself on youtube handing his wallet to a random member of a disadvantaged class who just happens to be walking by on the street. Don’t forget to include a sticky note with all your passwords and pin numbers on it!
#heresmywallet
#takemywalletplease
+1
I thought that the millenials were either living in their parents’ basements or, at best, working at Starbucks. We have to keep these memes straight.
Only if their parents live in a neighborhood with a good walk score.
Warmist Warming Monday
Here as reported by real journalists at the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/curbing-global-warming-mission-impossible/2015/08/09/b95b2650-3d2d-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html
P.S. infinite growth is not possible in a finite ecosystem
Portland, OR (CNN) Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders drew more than 19,000 people to an NBA arena on Sunday night in Portland, Oregon, setting the record for the largest political event of the 2016 presidential contest.
Bernie on the Koch brothers: “When you have one family spending more than either political party, that is not democracy, that is oligarchy, and that has got to end.”
“We see kids getting criminal records for having marijuana, but the CEOs of these large institutions get away with theft.”
“If a bank is too big to fail, I think it’s too big to exist.”
If you want meaningful reform in Washington to break the hold of the oligarchy, Bernie is the only hope for delivering it.
I wonder if the one black person in that crowd of 19,000 felt embarrassed, and perhaps overrepresented on Instagram, with the cameras always on him and with all those white SJWs clamoring to get him in the photograph with them?
LOL. It gets weirder, the woman who grabbed the microphone in Seattle? She was a Sarah Palin supporter. WTF?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CL96fXEUwAEdY_b.png
So she was a plant, like I predicted.
“If you want meaningful reform in Washington to break the hold of the oligarchy, Bernie is the only hope for delivering it.”
His campaign is over already. He already sounded off against guns about 2-3 weeks ago, exactly like gun grabbers already sound, but that’s entirely unacceptable in a President. As President he should be strongly in favor of supporting constitutional law, to wit: Our right to keep and bear arms.
Then some racist protesters pushed him around easily while he just stood there like a scolded schoolboy.
Sanders isn’t Presidential material. If some ghetto yahoos can make him retreat into his personal shame space for no valid reason whatsoever, then just imagine what Putin could do to him. Just imagine what any world leader could do to him. Heck, the leading tribal chief in Hawaii could demand Sanders sign the state over to him as he declares himself “King of Hawaii”, and weak Sanders would do it, out of invented racial shame.
If some ghetto yahoos can make him retreat into his personal shame space for no valid reason whatsoever
He graciously stepped aside to let them speak. There was no retreat. His civil rights record begins before those two women were born.
And you are dead wrong about Sanders and guns. He takes a lot of flak from lefties because he has made pro-gun votes:
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Politics-Voices/2015/0715/Is-Bernie-Sanders-really-a-gun-nut
I mean if you are against Sanders because he’s a socialist, just come out and say it. That would be more dependable and respectable than what you posted.
That would be more dependable * defendable
He graciously stepped aside to let them speak. There was no retreat. His civil rights record begins before those two women were born.
Those ratchets owned him, straight up. And his renouned “civil rights record” won’t earn him any brownie points with those who will never be satisfied no matter what concessions they’re given. They showed him up as weak and impotent.
Wrong on two counts, WPA.
Speaking from New Orleans on NBC’s Meet The Press, Sanders told moderator Chuck Todd that “guns used to kill people exclusively, not for hunting, should not be sold in the United States of America.”
Count #1: Sanders showed that he’s anti gun. Guns are for killing. That’s their function. Target shooting is just practice for the act of killing. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. There’s no such thing as a “safe gun” or a “non-killing gun” or a gun that discriminates between a deer and a Human being.
The sad fact is that once you give them a microphone enough times, a Liberal candidate will amply demonstrate that he’s anti-gun. Sanders did it. A President has no business banning guns. He should have no opinion on guns whatsoever. The Second Amendment says so. The SCOTUS decisions of 2008 and 2010 say so. And that’s the end of that story, WPA.
Count #2: Sanders had that stage. He let insane and racist protesters take it over. That’s not Presidential. He showed he could be pushed around like some nerdy schoolkid. The reality is that few people want a President that can be bullied. And you’re going to find out in the primaries how true that is, WPA. The end.
great find! i just knew that socialist creep sanders was anti-gun. he’s just good at hiding it.
Breaking the stranglehold of the Oligopoly on America’s captured political process is Job #1. Unfortunately the Oligopoly’s control of the media, coupled with the credulousness of the morons who voted for Obama, McCain, and Romney and who will bend over for the Oligopoly in 2016 by voting for HillaryJeb, all but ensures the oligarch’s control over “our” political process will remain complete.
Q: Can someone recommend a decent “off-line” Android Reader for this blog that formats the content width, fonts, etc., without having to login to the developer’s site? Thx!
What is going on with the Animas River that goes past Silverton and Durango. I see on the map that this river drains into the San Juan River and where the San Juan drains I know not. Heard about the EPA admitting to a release of an old waste water pool?
All I can say not knowing what all is going on is what a shame - that part of CO is very nice - hiked up there many moons ago.
If loan-free college education gains traction, will a student loan “debt jubilee” have to be put into place to relieve those who paid for their college educations of their debt burdens? And will this apply retroactively to people who spent years of their lives repaying student loans?
“If loan-free college education gains traction…”
It would quickly turn into a means-based program so the basket weaving graduates can have a place at the trough. I doubt it will go anywhere.
Wonder Woman should be OK
Target Ditches Gender Labels on Toys, Home and Entertainment
Changes will start to be seen in stores over the next few months…
by Kathryn Robinson | NBC News | August 10, 2015
Target is ditching boys’ and girls’ labels on toys after the store says customers were raising concerns about unnecessary gender-based signs.
In an statement posted to their website on Friday, Target announced they were moving away from gendered signs in stores.
“Over the past year, guests have raised important questions about a handful of signs in our stores that offer suggestions based on gender,” the posting read.
Molly Snyder, a spokeswoman for Target, told NBC News the ways that people shop are continually evolving and changing.
Transformers characters should be allowed.
Apparently Target is no longer promoting gender racism. Don’t refer to little johnny as a him or her please.
While the banksters are telling the muppets that gold is a poor investment, they don’t seem to be heeding their own advice.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3421396-the-big-long-goldman-sachs-and-hsbc-buy-7_1-tons-of-physical-gold
Yup.
And it’s the paper that has crashed, the physical is in very high demand.
And, unlike real estate, it’s a great time to buy!
Clinton to propose $350 billion college affordability plan
Associated Press
By LISA LERER
17 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Calling for a “new college compact,” Hillary Rodham Clinton on Monday will unveil a $350 billion plan aimed at making college more affordable and reducing the crushing burden of student debt.
http://news.yahoo.com/clinton-propose-350-billion-college-affordability-plan-070952553–election.html
Bend over, taxpayers. Yet the retards among us will still vote for HillaryJeb. Truly, you can’t fix stupid.
2L
4D
A DotCom II Internet company blows up. Got popcorn?
http://www.businessinsider.com/zirtual-suddenly-laid-off-400-employees-via-email-2015-8
http://lasvegasweekly.com/as-we-see-it/2015/aug/10/zirtual-closes-vegastechfund-downtown-project/
‘As a former Zirtual for Teams Assistant I am truly heartbroken no notice and working 42 hours last week for free! But my true heartbreak is for our clients. WE (ZA’s) developed personal relationships with the clients of Zirtual then have Zirtual just drop us both like a dirty diaper!’
‘VegasTechFund seems to make funding decisions based on fitting into the clique rather than based on objective metrics.’
‘CEO did not even have HEART to notify unpaid workers AFTER paying 1.8M cash for house & flaunting it.’
Is this another pets.com? never heard of this fly by night company.
I miss the old F*cked Company.com site that used to mock these DotCom bubble companies as they circled the drain and imploded.
Sorry Bloomberg, Someone did Notice China Dumping record Amount Bonds…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/dear-bloomberg-someone-did-notice-china-dumping-record-amount-bonds
Hmm…I was thinking about a year ago what if China, one of the countries holding a lot of treasuries dumps them? Won’t rates rise? Well I guess a bunch of FBs are buying the long term bonds from them?
Our schools are collectivist lemming indoctrination centers. Calvins out there, you know who you are (and if you voted for Obama, McCain, Romney, or will vote for HillaryJeb, you know who you aren’t.)
http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2015/08/there-are-no-more-calvins.html
What, if anything, limits the ability of governments with reserve currencies to print money and use it to prop up asset prices?
BloombergBusiness
Here’s What China’s Rescue Fund Is Buying to End the Stocks Rout
August 9, 2015 — 9:00 AM PDT
China Securities Finance Corp. has quickly become one of the most influential investors in the Chinese stock market, with $483 billion of firepower and the potential to add $322 billion more.
As a linchpin of the government’s market rescue effort, the agency has almost unmatched ammunition to move mainland share prices. So what exactly is it buying with all that cash?
CSF’s silence on its strategy means the full picture is unclear. The agency is, however, leaving behind a few clues. Thanks to Chinese disclosure rules for large shareholders, exchange filings reveal the stocks in which CSF has built a major stake.
The disclosures show a preference for large-cap companies, and a particular affinity for railway shares. Outside that industry, CSF has positions in health care, food and technology stocks. The agency may also be investing through intermediaries, with the state-run China Securities Journal reporting last week that it plowed the equivalent of $32 billion into mutual funds.
“CSF has become the biggest player in this market,” said Steve Wang, the chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Investors should follow what the agency has bought, and at least avoid getting on its opposite side by shorting.”
…
Other than missing on the timing, was AlbqDan right about the Chinese government’s intent and ability to turn around the bear market in Chinese stocks?
I’m surprised that governments seem unconcerned that artificially propping up shares might result in supporting worthless surplus production by zombie companies.
China stocks fall at market open
SHANGHAI | Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:50pm EDT
SHANGHAI, Aug 11 (Reuters) - China’s major stock indexes opened down on Tuesday.
The CSI300 index fell 0.3 percent to 4,071.84 points at 1:45 GMT, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3 percent to 3,915.50 points.
CSI300 stock index futures for August fell 0.6 percent, to 4,036.4 - 35.44 points below the current value of the underlying index.
Will Perry be the first GOP clown-car candidate to recognize reality?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/10/rick-perry-stops-paying-his-south-carolina-staff-as-fundraising-dries-up/?postshare=401439263526754