August 11, 2015

Acche Din Should Be On The Way

Reuters reports on Brazil. “The Brazilian real estate market is witnessing a drastic reversal from four years ago, when an economic boom lifted millions into an expanded middle class and fueled a home-buying frenzy that pushed prices up by as much as 30 percent on an annual basis. At the time, developers like Cyrela Brazil Realty SA and Rossi Residencial SA, flush with cash from recent initial public offerings, launched into a building binge of middle- and high-income housing to meet what they expected would be continuously growing demand. ‘It’s a perfect storm,’ said Itau BBA analyst Enrico Trotta, who also pointed out scarcer mortgage funding and the high number of apartments collecting dust following the industry’s overly optimistic expansion.”

“Already-reticent buyers have sensed their strengthened bargaining power, which they are using to demand discounts of up to 30 percent on some apartments. ‘We have to explain the reality of the market to sellers nowadays,’ said independent Sao Paulo-based broker Milena Moreira. ‘Some just don’t believe it.’”

Bloomberg on the UK. “London’s swankiest neighborhoods of Knightsbridge and Belgravia are becoming no-go areas for even the wealthiest property investors. They are being driven out by higher sales taxes. The average value of a London home sold by broker Savills Plc fell by 200,000 pounds to 3 million pounds in the first half of the year, compared with the same period in 2014, while transactions fell 15 percent in the period, the broker said. ‘The buyers’ market has returned,’ William Carrington, chairman of data researcher Lonres, wrote in a report on London’s best districts. ‘I do not see an improvement in market conditions before September.’”

Perth Now in Australia. “According to new CoreLogic RPData statistics, Shenton Park, just 4km from the CBD, is the top bargain suburb for units, with median prices falling by 22 per cent in the past 12 months. North Fremantle followed closely behind with a price drop of 20.4 per cent and Highgate came in at number three with a median price of $410,000 — 13.2 per cent less than it was 12 months ago. The Perth CBD had the seventh biggest drop, with the average unit now $465,0000. Tsokos Property director Anthony Tsokos recently sold a two-bedroom apartment in Newcastle St, Perth for $62,000 less than what it was purchased for in 2008.”

“‘Often buyers want something that’s new, but with so many apartments currently on the market they have the upper hand in the established market,’ Mr Tsokos said.”

The National on Dubai. “A former employee of a property company that closed last month has been left homeless, penniless, jobless and unable to leave the country. The operating licence of S&K, also known as Smith & Ken, was revoked in June but it continued trading until July 21. The closure left more than 80 staff in Dubai and Los Angeles, California, out of work. Briton Amina Ali, 27, took a commercial property manager’s job in Dubai in June last year with a basic monthly salary of Dh8,000, 50 per cent commission on transactions, a company car and accommodation. ‘Some days I will eat, others I won’t,’ Ms Ali said. ‘I don’t know where I will be staying some nights. The longest I have been anywhere is a week.’”

“Regulators are investigating complaints that the company routinely asked tenants to make rent cheques payable to S&K instead of the landlord, and asked property buyers to make cheques payable to the company instead of the seller. Both practices are illegal. ‘A lot of landlords still don’t know what has happened and will only find out when they miss a mortgage payment,’ Mr Khan said. ‘One landlord has lost Dh160,000. That is just the start, some will not even be checking their accounts.’”

From DNA India. “The unsold stock of flats in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is increasing by the day. With the current rate of buying, it will take over 41 months to dispose off this inventory, according to a survey by Liases Foras Real Estate Research Firm. Managing director Pankaj Kapoor said, ‘The current stagnant scenario in the real estate market will continue for at least the next two years.’”

“Meanwhile, buyers remain unsure of which way to go. Rajesh Parab, a suburb resident, had booked a 1-BHK flat in Nalasapora for Rs 23 lakh. ‘I had some financial problems so I could not buy the flat at the time. But a few days ago, my agent called and said the same flat was available for Rs 21 lakh. It was a pleasant surprise for me. But now I am wondering whether to invest at this rate or wait some more for the cost to decrease,’ he said.”

Yahoo India Newsroom. “What can safely be said is that in the current financial year (which started on April 1, 2015) on an aggregate basis, the banks haven’t lent a single rupee to real estate companies. And all this should be good news for buyers. Why? For the simple reason that the funding source of real estate companies is drying out. Real estate companies have to repay the interest on the loans they had taken on previously. Over and above this, there are projects that are still being built and need to be delivered by a certain date. Money will be needed for all these things.”

“All these reasons will ensure that the companies will have to get around to selling the unsold apartments that they have built and have been unable to sell. The number of unsold homes in cities across the country is huge. The only way these unsold homes can be sold is by cutting prices. While the real estate companies have resisted this so far, with the funding from banks almost coming to a standstill, they really have no more options left in the days to come.”

“Finally, acche din should be on their way for those looking to buy homes to live in.”




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82 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 04:00:13

‘Western China Property Market Has “Quietly Collapsed”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 05:57:48

‘The risk of a bubble forming in the shopping mall business has emerged in China, after the number of malls grew by 300-400 a year in recent years, according to Shanghai’s China Business News.’

‘The market has become saturated, leading to construction delays and difficulties attracting vendors, according to the newspaper. Two shopping centers have postponed opening days, while up to 40% of some malls’ space still await tenants, the report added.’

‘The fact that shopping centers have been built by developers as a way to boost the value of their nearby housing projects led to the drop in business for the malls after the housing market cooled down, said Du Bin, director overseeing the business services department of RET.’

“Finding vendors is the top challenge,” said Xu Rong, general manager of Shanghai commercial operations of property company Sincere. According to Xu, the challenge is created by the fact that luxury brands, which should be the main vendors in a mall, have no plans to expand.’

‘The Chinese government’s crackdown on corruption has also hit the consumption of jewelry and luxury goods, industry insiders added. They further pointed out that affordable luxury brands and fast fashion retailers often demand mall operators to subsidize their renovation costs, adding pressure on the mall.’

Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 07:36:50

BMW is lowering its profit forecast based on crashing sales in China. Good luck selling those five hundred dollar purses and three thousand dollar watches now.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-11 07:44:35

what’s a mall?
gang congregation point?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 07:54:02

mauls are like NYC. Get mauled by the street thugs or legalized thugs.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-11 08:28:02

What we have discussed for many months already is being freshly reported as news. How weird is that?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-11 08:45:01

They are admitting that all is not well. It’s only news when everyone already knows it.

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Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 09:14:06

Why do I get the sense that some unpleasant substance is getting closer and closer to a fan?

 
Comment by oxide
2015-08-11 11:54:54

Geez mon, use the appropriate libtard phrasing:

“The biofuel is approaching the wind turbine.”

Politically correct AND eco-friendly! :mrgreen:

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 09:31:23

The failed attempt by chinese to boost housing with malls reminded me of the study that was posted here a while back. It showed how the regional economy stagnated for decades after these so called localized housing booms.

I can’t think of anything that destroys an economy like grossly inflated prices do.

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Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 10:54:14

How can you go shopping at a mall if most of your income is going toward paying for a house? Still, isn’t it great that housing is “coming back?”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 04:09:47

“A Startup Blew Up Overnight And Laid Off Its 400 Employees Via Email With No Warning”

http://www.businessinsider.com/zirtual-suddenly-laid-off-400-employees-via-email-2015-8

Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 07:45:34

Another dot.com bubble is starting to pop, but there seems to be no shortage of investors willing to throw their money away on these fantasy companies. Even the name, Zirtual, sounds like it was invented by a con man to push all the high techie buttons that so impress investor brains.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 08:01:14

During my time in tech in the late 1990s, I saw numerous new brand or company names with an “i” or an “e” or a “z” attached, or simply a dot-com at the end. That, rather than anything substantive — and rather than actual profit now, or in the reasonable future — signaled new economy cachet and riches to investors. Kind of like the suffix “tronics” in the 1920s.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-08-11 09:25:44

Did you mean “tronics” in the 1980s perhaps?

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Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 10:50:30

You are right, I misplaced it. Here is one writer’s take on naming:

During the 1920s bubble the naming fad was “General” with its subliminal message of power, strength and investment success. General Motors, General Dynamics, and General Foods thrived.

In the Nifty Fifty era the suffix “-tronics” captured and re-enforced the mood of the late 60s, just as “.com” did in the 1990s. One company added “.com” to its name, changed not an iota of its business, and was rewarded by a massive jump in its stock price. In the 00s Hedge Funds adopted street names such as “54th Street Capital” or “Mayfair Capital” that are subliminally suggestive of home-like intimacy and trust.

http://tinyurl.com/pbtwqbb

 
 
Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 11:01:02

This is common in China, except that instead of some strange internet based business scheme, they take an already existing company, change the name to something that sounds high tech, and watch the stock price soar. At least, that’s what they used to do not that long ago. Now they’re trying to figure out when the government will let them sell their stock in the Zinternet paper clip company. Things change fast in China.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 11:46:50

‘The United States on Tuesday warned China that any wavering in its commitment to a more market-determined exchange rate would be “troubling,” but it said it was not clear if Beijing’s yuan devaluation marked such a step.’

‘China’s central bank on Tuesday pushed its official guidance rate down nearly 2 percent in what it said was a move to make it more responsive to market forces. The move sent the yuan tumbling to a three-year low.’

‘Many U.S. lawmakers have accused China of keeping the yuan artificially weak in an effort to support its exports.’

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-warns-china-against-backsliding-172929140.html

Globalist: Did they just screw us?

Globalist 2: I think they screwed us.

Globalist: They did! We just got screwed!

This just in: China announced a new currency, which will feature President Xi Jinping wearing a sombrero. The name of the new currency is the Peso, which in Chinese roughly translates “worthless Mexican color-paper”. The move was suggested by a New Mexico consulting firm, Too Dan To Fail.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 04:10:08

‘Scandinavian housing bubbles spark financial stability fears’

“This market is so hot now. Low interest rates just allow people to bid more and more — and that is what they are doing,” one Oslo estate agent said.’

Keep going Janet, don’t be scared.

Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 07:46:47

Do they give Nobel Prizes for bubble blowing?

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 04:13:18

Centennial, CO Housing Prices Plunge 8%; Inventory Explodes 112%

http://www.movoto.com/centennial-co/market-trends/

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 04:32:46

“US Dollar On The Rise As China Devalues Yuan”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0QG00F20150811

Printing more bad money after bad simply exacerbates the collapse. Are you enjoying a more powerful, valuable dollar and falling prices as much as I am?

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-08-11 05:26:52

“Briton Amina Ali, 27, took a commercial property manager’s job in Dubai in June last year with a basic monthly salary of Dh8,000, 50 per cent commission on transactions, a company car and accommodation.”

“… 50 per cent commission on transactions.” Yikes!

“I was only paid my Dh8,000 salary once,” she said. “They wanted me to sign a new contract for Dh5,000, but I refused.”

“Unable to resolve the dispute, she left S&K in September while owed more than two months’ commission, Dh128,700, and lodged a complaint with the Ministry of Labour.

“… owed more than two months’ commission, Dh128,700″

More than two months commission = Dh128,000, so that’s something less than Dh64,000 a month in commissions.

Her salary dispute was over from her going from Dh8000 a month to Dh5000 a month - which is a Dh3000 difference - but her commission remained at fifty-percent, which averaged a bit less than Dh64000 a month, which means she is an idiot.

An idiot not only because she gave up the opportunity to earning something like Dh64000 a month in commissions due to a dispute over Dh3000 in salary but also and idiot - a bigger idiot - in that she apparently got involved in working for a bunch people who never intended to pay her to begin with.

I like it. Pay ‘em in promises, it’s cheaper.

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Comment by BetterRenter
2015-08-11 06:31:07

A 50% commissions plan just screams “it’s a scam”.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2015-08-11 06:42:26

“A 50% commissions plan just screams ‘it’s a scam’ .”

A scam pulled on the buyers, a scam pulled on the brokers - the sellers - but not a scam pulled on those who ran the scam, the ones who made all the promises and then took all the money and left the country.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 06:45:35

Commissions are a scam. Flat fee.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 08:04:27

How much did the south Asian labor that constructed the buildings earn? They probably weren’t paid at all, and never will be.

Amina, good luck on your complaint with the Ministry of Labour! The check’s in the mail no doubt.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-08-11 12:49:53

Her monthly commissions were 8 times her monthly salary. Nothing makes any sense….dispute 3,000 in base when you book 64,000 in commissions.

None of this makes any sense….except for the reality: which is the whole plan was a scam.

 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-08-11 05:39:22

“‘I had some financial problems so I could not buy the flat at the time.”

Nevertheless buying is what he wanted to do.

“But a few days ago, my agent called and said the same flat was available for Rs 21 lakh. It was a pleasant surprise for me.”

Econ101 says this lowered price should increase the incentive for him to buy. However …

“‘But now I am wondering whether to invest at this rate or wait some more for the cost to decrease,’ he said.”

When Macys lowers prices buyers flood into its stores and sometimes get into fights over merchandise. But when real estate (and stocks) have their prices lowered then buying tends to dry up.

Sheep, either way people are sheep.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:04:05

‘After Crash, Chinese Woman Who Bought Stock on Advice of Hairstylist Pauses to Reflect’

‘While on holiday abroad in 2011, I noticed several middle aged men in my tour group monitoring stocks on their cell phones. With furrowed brows, they traded bad experiences playing the markets. They are not even enjoying their holiday, I thought scornfully. What’s so great about stocks?’

‘My thinking started to change during a trip to the hairdresser’s in February.

“The stocks are going up; which one did you get?” my hairstylist asked in a discreet manner. I drew a blank. “You’re an educated person,” he said mockingly. “How can you not be interested in the bull market?”

‘I returned the following month to find my hairstylist cursing himself for not investing in Internet television company Letv’s stock. “It’s rising 10 percent everyday,” he lamented.’

Comment by BetterRenter
2015-08-11 06:33:11

“It’s rising 10 percent everyday,” he lamented.’

That’s not an investment story. It’s a GREED story. It’s sad that people can’t tell the fundamental difference anymore; the media pushes greed so hard these days.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-08-11 10:00:05

And the media blatantly gives us sheeple the reason why the market goes up and down in the hourly radio news snippets (this morning’s reason for down market: Chinese currency devaluation).

They aren’t even trying to pretend any longer . . .

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Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 08:09:35

Great article. She seems properly chastened by her experience, but you never know. In her words:

“I rarely talk about stocks, but posted two conclusions on Weibo:

1.The stock market is a “mirror on the wall”: it reflects one’s own shortcomings, such as greed, blind speculation, silly boldness, and following trends blindly. Seeing these clearly is more important than making money.

2.Wealth should rightly be earned with real work and effort.”

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:07:36

‘The Chinese market, the world’s largest, has grinded to a halt these past few months. The prices are getting lower every month – dealers have been slashing retail prices these past few months because the industry could see the lowest delivery rate of the past four years. Hundreds of models in major cities are discounted by up to 30 percent – for example, according to Autohome, a popular car-pricing portal, the flagship Audi A8L that was 1.97 million yuan ($317,000) at the start of the year now can be had for 1.28 million yuan.’

“Prices are getting lower all the time, even as cars are getting better,” comments a Chinese consumer who has a job in the industry at an auto parts company. “If it’s not urgent, one can wait.”

‘Such people that are not in a hurry could deliver a trouble bubble across the Chinese new vehicle auto market, which passed the US as the biggest in the world back in 2009. The Chinese economy is expected to have the smallest gain in 25 years, the government has been hitting car registrations because of environmental concerns and the stock market has been highly volatile the past two months – so the auto industry is now pulling all the strings it has to lift sales.’

“This round of price cuts is the worst in China’s auto industry history in terms of the number of models involved and the depth of the cuts,” comments Su Hui, a deputy division head at the state-backed China Automobile Dealers Association. “Nobody saw it coming, not the government, not the automakers, not the dealers.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-11 07:48:58

China’s FX reserves continue to slide into negative territory. Nearing -10% YOY.

http://www.chinastocks.net/yuan-depreciation-only-just-begun-as-reserve-downtrend-continues/

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:25:41

We have to explain the reality of the market to sellers nowadays,’ said independent Sao Paulo-based broker Milena Moreira. ‘Some just don’t believe it.’

What do you bet rio won’t even read this but will have the time to make 10 comments about republicans?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 06:53:25

Lola and Daniel Asshat-Crowman were last seen walking naked and mumbling to themselves on a streetcorner webcam.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:33:49

‘China’s devaluation raises currency war fear’

“What is good for growth in China is unfortunately bad for everybody else,” said Bill McQuaker, co-head of multi-asset at Henderson Global Investors.’

‘Oil prices fell on Tuesday after China devalued its currency in its latest effort to prop up economic growth, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive and weighing on the oil demand outlook for the world’s top energy consumer.’

‘Adding further pressure, OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast of 2015 oil supplies from non-member countries, a sign that oil’s price collapse is taking longer to hit North American shale and other competing sources than previously thought.’

‘In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year by about 90,000 barrels per day. “There is still no solid basis for any prolonged price recovery given that the huge oversupply remains firmly in place,” Commerzbank said.’

So that Vancouver or California house just got a bit more expensive. No wonder they were laundering money like crazy the past few years.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:35:32

‘Real estate prices in Australian cities have been rising rapidly and as a result property prices are at the reach of many Australian citizens. Now investigators are looking into 462 possible breaches by foreign homeowners who could be forced to sell.’

‘In Sydney several foreign owners of residential homes have been ordered to sell as the government continues to look into the abuse of home ownership laws by buyers from China and other countries. According to the article in the Wall Street Journal, foreign investors have been ordered to sell six properties in Perth, Brisbane and Sydney and which are valued between AU$152,000 and AU$1.86 million. The orders to sell could just be the beginning as probes have uncovered 462 possible breaches of the rules on foreign home ownership in Australia. They were discovered after the government increased its spending into looking into the enforcement during the May budget. The number of cases being investigated has more than doubled since the previous estimate in June. It’s expected that more divestment orders will be announced soon, along with increased penalties for anyone breaking the rules.’

 
Comment by cactus
2015-08-11 09:05:04

So that Vancouver or California house just got a bit more expensive. No wonder they were laundering money like crazy the past few years.”

Did they see it coming ? Maybe they did

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:39:17

‘Today there were twice as many homes set to go under the hammer than the same weekend last year. So why the pre-spring rush?’

‘On the same August weekend last year, when the Saturday fell on the 9th of the month there were 357 auctions scheduled. This year on August 8 there were 839 homes set to auction and whether it is the auspicious 8/8 date, or another cyclic phenomenon, industry insiders all agree that the volume spike is unusual.’

‘Greg Howard of Black Diamondz Property Concierge said that despite getting a solid result of $3.55 million for his latest sale in Lindfield, the property tide could be turning in Sydney. “I’ve noticed a definite cooling off in recent weeks,” he said.’

‘Mr Howard said that the large number of listings before the traditional spring market surge could be a case of nervous vendors. “I think it’s a case of people worrying a storm is coming and they want to sell now and get the best price,” he said.’

BTW, the “the auspicious 8/8 date” is because it’s considered a “lucky number’” by the Chinese. Oh yeah, these superstitious folk are going to rule the world.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:43:33

‘Nick Hart bought four homes in Adelaide in less than two years, and was getting ready to make an offer for a fifth, when a regulator-inspired move to cool the sizzling Australian property market spoiled his plans.’

“I went to my bank for my next home loan and their response was eligibility assessments have changed, and they can’t lend more to me just yet,” said the 37-year-old sales manager at a software services firm. Hart said the bank told him his existing loans, equivalent to 93 percent of the value of his A$1.8 million ($1.3 million) properties, need to be reduced before he can borrow any more.’

‘Last month, Australian banks raised interest rates for property investors and introduced tougher loan-to-value standards in response to a move by regulators to rein in the riskier corners of the country’s house price boom.’

‘Low mortgage rates and a flood of Chinese investment have propelled prices 29 percent higher across Australia in the past three years, according to research firm CoreLogic Inc. Prices in Sydney have jumped 46 percent over the same period.’

‘Last year, the Reserve Bank of Australia called the housing market unbalanced, and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority urged banks to limit the growth in investor home loans, which make up a record 53 percent of all mortgages, according to the latest government figures.’

‘The turning point came last month, when the banking regulator increased the capital that the banks need to hold against potential mortgage losses to an average of 25 percent, from 17 percent previously. That will force the four largest lenders to add A$12 billion in equity in a year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.’

Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 08:19:49

Four houses there? The Adelaide area is excellent for viniculture, but otherwise it’s an Australian version of Omaha or Indianapolis. The locals were hugely welcoming and friendly like all Australians, but they were perplexed that I’d chosen their pleasant city for a visit. One woman wrinkled her brow and asked “why Adelaide?”

Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-11 15:51:56

Good take on Adelaide…I was there for about half a day during my travels.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 06:48:01

‘As a bellwether for the state of the Aberdeen economy, one street came to symbolise the boom and bust of the oil industry in the 1980s. Lee Crescent North, which was home to many who prospered thanks to “black gold” in Europe’s oil capital, became a shorthand for an industry in crisis – the backside had fallen out of the oil market and Aberdeen property prices soon followed suit.’

‘The “for sale” signs sprouted like weeds on a garden path as the aspirational, 80s property-owning dream threatened to become a nightmare, haunted by the spectres of negative equity and unaffordable mortgage payments.’

‘Keith Allan, managing partner of Aberdeen legal firm Raeburn Christie Clark and Wallace, remembers the mid-80s oil crash well. “I was here and working in property at the time. It was as bad a spell as I have ever experienced in 40 years in the profession.”

‘But fast forward almost 30 years and it appears the housing market – Aberdeen has outperformed the rest of the country in recent years – remains in good shape. Allan said: “There is still good activity if the property you are looking for is priced with a one, two or three. It is properties in the £350,000-plus range where there is less activity.”

“This could be caused by a lack of confidence in the jobs market – particularly in oil and gas, a potential rise in the cost of borrowing and also the introduction this year of the Land Buildings Transaction Tax, which replaced Stamp Duty and has made prices at the upper end of the market that bit more expensive to buy.”

“The market should be able to withstand the current oil industry issue. Sellers in the upper levels realise they are not going to get a premium on their price at the moment.”

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 06:55:32
Comment by Karen
2015-08-11 10:04:16

The interesting thing about this is the underlying story: he was trying to get two other realtors to pay him hush money so he wouldn’t expose THEIR scam. Wow.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 07:10:58

‘According to a recent study, Berlin has three times as many illegal holiday flats as officially licensed tourist accommodations. This places an extra strain on the city’s already overburdened housing market.’

‘Trawling through a dozen aparment rental portals, Berlin’s city council found 23,000 flats on offer for tourists to rent throughout the city. This figure itself would hardly be newsworthy were it not for a law passed in early 2014 requiring owners of holiday homes to obtain an official license from the city.’

‘Only 5,700 apartments were accredited. This means that, if the study’s findings are accurate, Berlin has some 17,000 illegal holiday homes. That’s three times the number of officially accredited tourist apartments.’

‘Sara, who until recently was living in Berlin’s up and coming district of Neukölln, told DW that she used to occasionally rent out her flat while on holiday until one day she found an eviction notice in her letter box.’

“The letter didn’t differentiate between full-time holiday apartments and occasional subletting to tourists” she complained. Sara stressed that while she does agree that Berlin already has an oversupply of holiday flats, she never intended to turn a profit by subletting hers.’

‘The pressure on Berlin’s housing market does not stem from people like Sara. However, the law does not distinguish between renters subletting when they’re away, and individuals buying and renting flats for the sole purpose of turning them into holiday homes - which is a much more potent factor in the scarcity of living space.’

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-11 08:32:54

Our Wisconsin AirBnB turned out to be a great deal. It worked out to $22/night for each of my siblings and me to stay in somebody’s furnished basement in a beautiful location.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 07:13:37

‘Aside from the joylessness of dealing with estate agents, paying surveyor’s fees of thousands of pounds, and making lawyers wealthy, the sheer madness of London’s house prices, much worse than even New York, is unbearable. Right now, if you want a three-bedroom house with a garden in Zone 2 on London’s Underground map, it is hard to find anywhere for less than £1 million — that is, around 30 times average earnings.’

‘Everybody — everybody — has a horror story to tell, about being ‘gazumped’ (look it up, it’s a very British word), or about dodgy dealings and killer last-minute bills. And yet, because houses are meant to be homes too, everyone is forced to sign up to participate in this racket. It is daylight robbery by another name, but all of us are in on it.’

‘Housing is the greatest scandal in modern Britain. In this essay I want to examine the curious historic journey of our current property madness, highlight the hypocrisy of recent policy, give a warning about where it is leading us, and argue that many of the biggest and worst social changes in our time have a common origin in the reprehensible failure of successive British governments to do anything about it.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 07:16:01

‘Iran’s sagging housing market may face price shock’

‘Majid Eslami, a Tehran-based real estate agent, predicts no significant growth for the housing market, arguing that the Rouhani administration’s “no price shock” policy will continue to act as a barrier.’

“The [housing market] recession has nothing to do with the nuclear deal or sanctions relief,” Eslami told Al-Monitor. “If the authorities really want to give a boost to the housing market, they’ll be able to, but they refuse to do so simply because they have already vowed to avoid abnormal market fluctuations. They’re serious in lowering inflation, and a strong real estate market can disrupt their planning,” he said.’

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 07:29:01

“Orlando Realtor Accused Of Using Lock Pick To Break Into Mailboxes”

http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/orlando-realtor-accused-using-lockpick-break-mailb/nmzRf/

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 07:38:48

Update: Crude Oil Craters To Multi-Year Low: $43.23

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 07:40:22

‘Mexico’s economy was supposed to soar. It’s starting to flop.’

‘At the first auction last month to sell the rights to drill for oil in Mexico — as the country opens its oil industry to foreign investment for the first time in eight decades — the government sold just two of its 14 blocks. The disappointing showing for President Enrique Peña Nieto’s signature economic reform prompted the government last week to modify the terms of the contracts for next month’s auction and added to what has been a noticeable string of bad news for Latin America’s second-largest economy.’

“We have an economy that practically has not grown in two-and-a-half years,” said Jonathan Heath, an economics professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. “And that has bothered a lot of people, because the government promised that we were going to grow.”

‘A recent biannual report from government agency Coneval found that the country’s poverty rate — set at $158 per month — reached 46.2 percent of the population last year, an increase from 45.5 percent in 2012. Esquivel noted that poverty rates, including extreme poverty, are similar to those of the early 1990s, before the North American Free Trade Agreement.’

“Over two decades, we have not been capable of reducing poverty,” he said. “We continue to be a country where the economy grows little, and that little amount of growth is not distributed in an equal way.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/mexicos-economy-was-supposed-to-soar-its-starting-to-flop/2015/08/07/ecbf00dc-3ab4-11e5-b759-e3c43f009486_story.html

‘poverty rates, including extreme poverty, are similar to those of the early 1990s, before the North American Free Trade Agreement’

But, this wasn’t what we were told. Sure, we’d lose countless factories but the new Mexican middle class would start buying our, I don’t know, Chinese made phones, and lift all the boats! What’s that? It just needs more time? 20 plus years isn’t enough time to judge globalism.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-11 09:21:28

the collectivist Keynsians never quite get it

Over two decades, we have not been capable of reducing poverty,” he said. “We continue to be a country where the economy grows little, and that little amount of growth is not distributed in an equal way.”

managed economies sck

deregulate for growth

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 09:43:24

The wealthy keynsians like it this way. Hypocrites.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 07:46:11

“Which Puerto Rico Bond Defaults Next? 46% Yields Provide a Clue”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/which-puerto-rico-bond-defaults-next-46-yields-provide-a-clue

“Investors” got roughly a penny on the dollar. About what a mortgage on a used house is worth. A penny on the dollar.

Got cash?

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 07:48:19

“Defaults On Consumer Loans To Surpass Level After Global Crisis”

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_defaults-on-consumer-loans-to-surpass-level-after-global-crisis_395898.html

Look out over the horizon….. the bottom is a long way down.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 07:50:06

“HELOC Defaults Could Be Next Villain To Victimize Housing Market”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/07/29/heloc-defaults-could-be-next-villain-to-victimize-housing-market/

“Victimize”? Did the drama queen pen this title?

Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 08:10:31

That’s like Homer Simpson blaming the alcohol for drunkening him.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 08:25:43

‘In 2011, Château Lafite Rothschild’s wines were riding high, the darlings of Chinese buyers and the auction market. The futures price in London for the great 2010 vintage, released in July 2011, created shock waves. But it was priced at £12,000 a case (then $19,400) … and the wine hadn’t even been bottled yet.’

‘Almost immediately that price began to slip, and it’s been declining ever since. Last month, Liv-ex reported that a case of the 2010 had traded for £5,390 ($8,350), nearly 55 percent less than it cost four years ago.’

‘It’s Bordeaux’s most famous property, its wines the most elegant, with more finesse than power. But that didn’t translate into astronomical prices until Chinese millionaires and billionaires caught the fever in about 2006, amassing huge stashes in their cellars.’

‘Even in the week after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, two Chinese buyers pushed prices of 165 lots of Lafite at a Hart Davis Hart auction in Chicago up and up. One of them purchased 50 percent of all the Lafite lots. From August 2000 to August 2010, the famed 1982 vintage increased 1,137 percent in price, according to Liv-ex.’

‘I’ve been told the Chinese love of Lafite began because the name is easy to pronounce in Mandarin—it’s called “la fei” on the mainland. One theory points to Exiled, a popular 2006 Hong Kong gangster film, in which the hero spurns a wine because it’s not 1982 Lafite.’

‘At the end of 2010, Andy Xie, an outspoken independent economist based in Shanghai, compared the rise in prices of wine to the dot-com bubble. He predicted Lafite, too, would crash and burn and advised selling immediately. By 2012, auction directors were admitting the bubble had burst.’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/is-now-the-time-to-buy-a-case-of-chateau-lafite-

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 08:27:59

‘because the name is easy to pronounce in Mandarin’

Obviously the high IQ had something to do with it. Or numerology.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 09:02:26

Dice.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-08-11 12:01:51

Yeah, put a few 8s on the label. Is China even a big wine-drinking country, or is this just another grotesque exercise in status consumption? And another question: is there anything that dumb, corrupt Chinese money isn’t able to bid up to the stratosphere? Time to plant some tulips.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Dman
Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-11 16:05:01

That article would be more useful if it wasn’t so focused on the experience of a NYC apartment dweller.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-11 08:34:27

We knew China had a massive housing inventory overhang, but India? Today’s posts are the first I have heard of it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-08-11 08:50:12

Surely you have heard of “everywhere”.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 08:52:18

The Chinese were buying up NZ dairy farms too.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/281099/accountant-calculates-dairy-farmers%27-losses

‘Pita Alexander said the current dairy price collapse was the seventh serious agricultural downturn he had experienced in his farming and accountancy career, and this was one of the worst. He calculates that the average dairy farmer would need $5.75 a kilo to cover production and other costs, and Fonterra’s latest forecast of between $4.25 and $4.35 in milk payments and dividends this season would leave them well shy of that.’

“The true cost of production on farm would be probably be about $5.55, but when you allow the personal drawings, including life insurance, personal allowances, you get up near $90-100,000 in many cases and that’s worth about 20 to 25 cents a kg. [The 2015/16 season ending in May] will have a loss maybe of $1 or $1.25 per kilo of milk solids.”

“The recent Fonterra announcement of [an extra] 50 cents a kg for production between June and December will certainly help, no question. It’s interest-free for two years. They haven’t told us how the repayments are going to work. I think it’s only when the price per kilo gets above $6, but that doesn’t look like it will apply for a little while”

“The real key’s going to be at 31 May 2016, because at that point if we are looking down the barrel of another loss for the year ending May 2017, we will start to have some difficulty at that point.”

‘He said it was noticeable that people who were forecasting a turnaround in dairy prices this season were no longer predicting when prices will bottom out.’

Huh, that’s kinda like the disappearing poster we’ve not seen.

‘It’s interest-free for two years’

QE/easy money/artificially low interest rates are deflationary. Don’t be scared Janet.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 09:00:46

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Revive the A shares! Benefits to the people!

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-11 09:34:55

San Luis Obispo, CA Housing Prices Fall 5%; Housing Demand Falls To 28 Year Lows In CA

http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 10:27:14

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl

Down periscope, dive! Dive!

I mentioned recently I do a little mind exercise where I imagine how the bubbles story would be told on any given day. And the world had many interconnected manias, but the biggest was in China. For China had built entire cities with few inhabitants. And the government worked to create a stock bubble. In the summer of 2015 that bubble crashed. And then on August 11th, the Chinese government devalued their currency. Soon, nerds were swarming out of San Francisco, with dishwashers strapped to the roof of their Teslas. But they didn’t get far as the charging stations had folded with the company.

Comment by Dman
2015-08-11 11:22:58

It won’t be long before we find out just how much of San Francisco’s economy is smoke and mirrors.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-11 11:50:49

san fran is the last market standing

bahstin and nyc are reporting higher inventory

 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-11 11:50:19

An indication of further deterioration in the Canadian oil patch - flights in and out of Alberta are stopping……

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/charter-flights-grounded-in-moncton-as-oil-patch-work-slows-1.3182688

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 12:10:10

‘While property markets in Sydney and Melbourne continue to boom, conditions for selling property in other areas of Australia, such as Perth, Darwin and Adelaide, are quite challenging and can best be described as a buyer’s market.’

‘In many regional capital cities and towns, the buyer is ‘king’ and anyone who is considering selling their property has to come to terms with this fundamental reality in market conditions.’

‘Buyers now have literally thousands of properties to choose from and as a result are taking months to make a final decision on the property they want to buy. For example, in Perth it now takes on average 71 days to sell a property whereas two years ago it took on average 49 days.’

‘If you need to sell one of your investment properties in the current real estate market then all the three Ps of marketing a home have to be precise at the outset – pricing, presentation and promotion.’

‘The most important reason that properties are not selling in the current market is that they are overpriced. In a rising market, an overpriced home will eventually sell because the market catches up with the price. In the current market overpriced properties simply remain on the market without any interest from buyers. Even an average home that is overpriced by $10,000 will not sell.’

‘Street appeal will largely determine if the home buyer even inspects your home. As a result, you should ensure that The Gardens are well presented and the exterior of the home is well maintained.’

‘Inside the home, areas such as the kitchen and bathroom are key selling points for the home and they should be always kept clean and tidy. Simple tips for improving the interior presentation of the home is to paint the walls in a light colour and the maximum use of external light by keeping windows clean and using mirrors in smaller bedrooms.’

‘You should also remove and store non-essential furniture and items that might clutter the home.’

http://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/blog/14471-the-three-p-s-to-selling-a-property

And bake some muffins for Jeebus sake!

 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-11 13:59:31

Is ABQ Dan ok?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-11 15:31:04

Falling prices my friend….. falling prices.

 
Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-11 16:08:14

Good question, he’s been MIA for awhile now…

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-11 17:58:45

I don’t want anything bad to happen to anyone. But he did say Muslims were his enemy. Maybe he got captured fighting ISIS and he’s being held for a future beheading?

 
 
 
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