The Tell Investors haven’t been this terrified since 2009
Published: Aug 21, 2015 5:02 p.m. ET
Bottom near, but they never happen on a Friday: Jeffrey Saut
Everett Collection
By William Watts
Deputy markets editor
Stock-market investors haven’t been this scared since the financial crisis, and that’s good news for bulls looking for a market bottom, says longtime bull Jeffrey Saut.
“Quite frankly, I have not seen this much fear since the spring of 2009,” when markets bottomed in the wake of the financial crisis, said Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, in a note to clients.
Fear-induced selling saw the Dow industrials (DJIA, -3.12%) plunge by more than 500 points on Friday, pushing the blue-chip index into correction territory. The S&P 500 (SPX, -3.19%) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -3.52%) also tanked in a broad-based selloff, with the S&P 500 wiping more than $1 trillion off its market cap during the week.
Extremes can be a contrary market indicator, as reflected by Warren Buffett’s adage about being “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Of course, some times investors are scared for good reason and it can take a while before the bottom appears.
Saut isn’t looking for a much deeper selloff. He argues that market bulls are in capitulation mode, and that a bottom is likely forming.
But how scared are investors? Saut says his own trading index is “extremely oversold and there is panic in the air.” CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 10, its most extreme “fear reading.” In addition, he notes, that the number of put options, which give the right but not the obligation to sell a stock at a certain price, being bought by traders outnumbers to volume of call options, which give the right but not the obligation to buy at a certain price, by the most since 2012, which is also a contrarian bullish sign.
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This credit bubble has to pop. Fundamentals matter over the long term. People the world over are above their eyeballs in debt, and the moneyed interests think that all goods and services can continue to be priced higher and higher as they extract their profits. There are these pesky little things called jobs and incomes which matter.
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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2015-08-23 13:31:45
‘There are these pesky little things called jobs and incomes which matter.’
Last time, 2009, a lot jobs went bye-bye as the stock market plummeted. The correlation I perceive is if we lose that amount of paper wealth again, people will cut back from spending and companies will not hesitate to do lay-offs. A buying opportunity for stocks will be an afterthought if your job gets cut. Such was my boat in 2009. I did not have much enthusiasm to buy stocks when having a job was the priority. Any free cash I had was to be for emergency costs.
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-23 22:15:58
“I did not have much enthusiasm to buy stocks when having a job was the priority. Any free cash I had was to be for emergency costs.”
When lots of individuals are out of the market due to unemployment, as you were in 2009, is the perfect time for recent bailout recipients (aka “friends of the Fed”) to use bailout proceeds to snap up a bevy of assets at fire sale prices.
I find it hilarious how quickly the market blew off like 1,000 points or whatever. People start chitting their pants. It’s all a scam anymore. I have some exposure but I don’t even worry about it. Whatever happens, happens.
Nope, glad it’s finally done bouncing between 18 and 17.5 for so long! It felt like once it dodged 17.2 she’d shake loose. Buying time is still a ways off but coming.
ft dot com > Markets >
Emerging Markets
August 23, 2015 1:34 pm Emerging markets turmoil: in charts Robin Wigglesworth in New York
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 10: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of August 10, 2015 in New York City. The Dow Jones surged over 230 points after five days of losses.
(Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX ***
Turmoil across emerging markets has intensified during August and for many veteran fund managers, there is a very real concern that selling pressure will escalate and draw comparisons with past implosions, notably the emerging market crisis of 1998.
Here are some charts that show just how bad things have become in local equity and bond markets in the developing world.
This has obviously been building for some time, with concerns over individual developing countries such as Brazil and Russia, weaker commodity prices and US Federal Reserve interest rate increases on the horizon. But the trigger for the deepening rout is mounting concerns over China’s economy — a vital driver of emerging markets as a whole.
As the charts show, the Shanghai stock market has fallen precipitously this summer, and Beijing this month devalued its currency slightly, exacerbating fears over emerging markets.
Yet there are more profound, fundamental problems dogging emerging markets. As the four charts from Capital Economics show, economic growth, household consumption, industrial production and exports in the developing world have all slowed sharply in recent years.
Of course, emerging markets is a blunt concept, and not every country is in bad shape. Morgan Stanley analysts have made a list of the countries it sees as the most vulnerable, based on factors such as dependence on overseas funding, debts metrics, growth fundamentals and exposure to China.
Brazil, South Africa and Turkey look the worst, while Indonesia, Russia, Peru, Malaysia, Colombia and Mexico are also vulnerable. Morgan Stanley have also made a handy Venn diagram for further illumination.
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Dutch voters, like ‘Muricans, installed bankster puppets who despite promises of “not another cent” to the deadbeat Greeks, just voted for (surprise surprise) a new bailout. The slack-jawed Dutch voters, like the imbeciles who voted for hope ‘n change or the even worse GOP alternatives, have a dim perception this is not what they voted for, but like the Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards, lack the intelligence to figure out they’ve been thrown under the bus by their political “leadership.”
The landed aristocratic gentry have always been in control of this country. There are only two choices : a) either open your eyes and realize it or b) keep your head down and ignore it. Either way you can still work hard and get yours.
Neither choice involves a chance to vote them out of office. That was never on any menu or ballot. I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits and is the only one who seems able to do it and get away with it.
Liberal McCarthyism is at the point now where if you are against illegal immigration you are labelled a racist.
Most people just want to stop the misinformation. If your neighbor wants to vote for Jeb, you ask him if he know of the Bush and Bin Laden affair. then send him to the facts.
If everyone had the facts and did not vote for the sales pitch we would be better off.
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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 11:29:07
Most people just want to stop the misinformation.
Not so. Today a good 95% of the population - and 100% of the Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards - lack any capacity for independent or critical thinking, and simply want to be told what to think and what to do. Life is easier that way. Just be a docile little sheep and go along with the program. Baaaaaaa! Baaaaaaa!
I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits ??
They are racists & narcissistic statements…When you have a silver spoon shoved up your arse you can get away with it…There is no penalty or price to pay…Try saying what he is saying while being a executive or even a worker bee in some company…
I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits and is the only one who seems able to do it and get away with it.
… and you conveniently overlook the other no-bullsh-t plain talker, Bernie Sanders? The first Presidential candidate in decades with the backbone to come out and say the forbidden words, “I’m a socialist.” Sanders is the _only_ candidate advocating breaking up the big banks and doing something about the 0.1%’’s stranglehold on Washington.
I know, I know. I’d love to see a Trump vs. Sanders matchup. The debates would be awesome. No holds barred, a no-B.S. zone, a razor sharp contrast offered to the voters. Contrast that with a Hillary-Jeb debate. What a snoozer that would be.
Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-08-23 11:08:15
I’d like to see Sanders as the D nominee also. I respect him stepping up as a socialist and claiming his position. Isn’t he soft on crime though? And how will he play with the SJWs in his party if he cracks down on illegals?
Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-08-23 11:37:34
They can play with him, or they can play with Trump.
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2015-08-23 15:51:52
“I know, I know. I’d love to see a Trump vs. Sanders matchup. The debates would be awesome. No holds barred, a no-B.S. zone, a razor sharp contrast offered to the voters. Contrast that with a Hillary-Jeb debate. What a snoozer that would be.”
There is no razor sharp contrast between Trump and Sanders. Both are nationalists by their favored policies.
‘I would argue that they are both “nationalist socialists.” That is, they both embody key elements of fascism. They both think the nation comes first, and they both think the United States is an organization (not a spontaneous order) that should be under someone’s control.
The difference is that Sanders sees both the problems and the solutions from the workers’ perspective, so he’s focusing on both the exploitation by capitalists and keeping immigrants out to protect the wages of US workers. The losses to US workers matter more than the large gains to foreign-born workers coming here.
Trump sees all of this from the CEO/owner/capitalist perspective. He thinks the United States is, or should be, like a big firm where we all work together for a common goal. He envisions himself as the CEO, negotiating deals with other countries as if they, too, were just big corporate firms. But nations are not firms — they are spontaneous orders.
As I argued in an earlier column, “Socialism Is War and War Is Socialism,” this desire to turn spontaneous orders into hierarchies is characteristic of both war and socialism. It is also deeply embedded in fascism, and Sanders and Trump exemplify that tendency among the presidential candidates, though they do so with different emphases and rhetoric.
Their commonalities are also why our conventional binary left-right political spectrum makes no sense. That one candidate is perceived as far to the left and the other as (to some degree) a right-wing capitalist shows the depth of our failure to understand history. They have both rejected the spontaneous order of the market as well as the cosmopolitanism of liberalism and socialism. They are fascist brothers under the skin.
That both are getting the attention and support of so many Americans should be a matter of grave concern. After all, some clowns are far more scary than funny.’
Comment by MightyMike
2015-08-23 21:13:56
That’s another useless discussion of words ending in -ist and -ism rather than something that addresses actual policies and programs.
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-23 22:22:34
“nationalist socialists.”
Like this?
NAtionale soZIalist
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-08-23 22:26:23
“He thinks the United States is, or should be, like a big firm where we all work together for a common goal.”
Sanders is the _only_ candidate advocating breaking up the big banks and doing something about the 0.1%’’s stranglehold on Washington.
Sanders can’t even stand up to two ratchets who grab his microphone and hijack his rally. So how is he going to stand up to the banksters? Silly lib-tard….
I read somewhere recently that 70 percent of Indians would emigrate to the US if allowed. What’s that like 800 million people? Even if a tenth actually did it, that is 70 million.
A buddy of mine told me about a friend of his who wanted to emigrate from the US to Australia. He had all the financial requirements lined up and things were looking good. However, in the end, he was turned down because of his autistic son. At least, that’s what he seems to think was the problem.
What nobody seems to realize or comment on is that this is a typical example of a business (her employer) dumping their workers on the taxpayers for care. This problem could be very easily solved, by granting her petition based on her employer depositing money for the care of the child.
THAT is who she should be petitioning, her employer. If they find her services valuable, they should fund the care of her child.
I was thinking about this issue of overpopulation yesterday, having come to the realization that Florida, at least this part of it, is a hot mess, both literally and figuratively. And from reading the relocation boards, there are other parts of the state suffering from too many people as well. And it’s not just too many people, it’s that so many of these people are also twice the size.
Usually this time of year, although hot and rainy, offers some relief from the traffic, because supposedly the snowbirds take off. But yesterday I was out at one of the local charity outlets where they sell used stuff of all sorts, and it was jammed worse than I’ve ever seen it during “the season”. And you can’t hardly even get down the walkways because of the wide-azz middle aged or older lady standing there, blocking the way while she contemplates some castoff or gewgaw on one of the shelves. I hate this because it brings out the worst in me and makes me want to plant my shoe right in her behind.
I could turn around and go down another walk way, but down that one I find Mami and Papi’s offspring sitting or crawling on the floor. Because god forbid Mami and Papi shop by themselves, oh no, they’ve got to bring their ENTIRE FREAKIN’ LITTER! My hand to God, sometimes they’ll even leave a baby carrier with one of their anchors in it right in the middle of the floor while they go off and look at some shiny piece of crap.
So we’ve got overpopulation and major traffic during one of the hottest summers on record in an area that was fairly sparsely populated up until 2005. In this area it’s being driven by boomer retirees and immigrants, big time. Not to mention some of the younger economic migrants from colder parts of the country who can’t cut it financially in the Northeast, Midwest or Mid-Atlantic.
I’m actually starting to think seriously about a move back to the Northeast, seeing as how the types of people I fled from seemed to have moved here, many in desperation because of deteriorating finances.
I’m gonna hire Blue Skye as my financial and relocation advisor.
The proliferation of fat, stupid people isn’t limited to Florida by any means. They’re everywhere these days.
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Comment by Califoh20
2015-08-23 11:11:48
Try Carmel, CA. No fats, not too many stupids. Bring $$$$
Comment by palmetto
2015-08-23 11:17:54
Fat stupid kidz, too, believe me. Real mouth breathers.
Also seeing something I like to call “Wideman’s Syndrome”, although it affects older women, too. It’s really weird, where the fat seems to collect on the sides of the body, causing them to balloon sideways rather than front to back. Make people look like a wall with clothing on.
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 13:44:05
And guess who gets to pay for Obamacare for these fat slugs who can’t be bothered to take responsibility for their own health and wellness?
Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-08-23 14:42:55
The Spanish Inquisition?
Comment by Puggs
2015-08-23 17:40:02
Try Portland, Bend or Seattle. Less fatties.
Comment by aNYCdj
2015-08-23 19:17:40
The proliferation of fat, stupid people isn’t limited to Florida by any means.
seriously this is the first time in many years i’ve seen this in NYC
The problem is also that they want to sell these shacks for more than the wages support. An hour drive into Phoenix and even then most jobs don’t pay enough for the wishing prices to make sense.
One day, easy credit will no longer cover the outrageous prices of everything from houses, to cars to boats, etc.
Easy credit WILL disappear.
As always, no one knows the when.
As I’ve said before numerous times, I expect that 20 years from now, people will deliberately commit crimes that land them in jail….for the 3 squares, roof, medical, library, gym.
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Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-23 10:15:57
” I expect that 20 years from now, people will deliberately commit crimes that land them in jail….for the 3 squares, roof, medical, library, gym.”
Some Japanese elders have already figured that out…I first heard about this phenomenon years ago:
Ben, a similar opportunity lies in wait a couple of years from now in North County San Diego, as the builders recently fired up their mothballed bulldozers, and the race to build out planned developments before the next crash is in full steam.
I may do a little photo documentary some time this fall if I have a slow weekend at some point.
‘Paul Polzin, director emertis of the BBER, said there is a misconception among the public, probably because of misconceptions in the media, that falling oil prices have caused a steep drop in oil production. He pointed out several headlines in national media outlets that drew attention to the so-called “oil bust.” However, he said that huge gains in production efficiency have actually led to an increase in oil output in the Bakken oil fields.’
‘A report from the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources showed that for most companies, the “break-even price” of oil, or the point at which new drilling would cease, is still well below the price of oil per barrel.’
‘The price at which production from existing wells would no longer be economically feasible is much lower still, at $15 per barrel. The price of a barrel of light sweet crude oil hit a six-year low of $42.26 on Thursday. ‘There has been no dramatic decline in oil production, despite a decline in price,” Polzin said.’
‘Fitch has lowered its outlook for Saudi Arabia to “negative” from “stable” on the back of lower oil prices and increased spending on infrastructure projects. While the ratings agency affirmed its AA rating for the kingdom, it forecasts Saudi Arabia’s general government deficit to widen to 14.4 per cent of gross domestic product this year.’
‘It added that deficits in the mid-single digits are forecast for next year and 2017 but it would stay in double digits if there was no fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects Saudi Arabia’s deficit financing to continue this year. The Saudi government in July held its first bond auction since 2007. The country this month also issued approximately US$5 billion of bonds, with another $27bn expected before the year’s end, as the world’s largest oil exporter hopes to avoid further drawing down on its reserves.’
“Deficit financing and the drawing down of deposits ring-fenced for specific projects is forecast to reduce the government’s net creditor position to 36.4 per cent of gross domestic product at end-2017 from 54.2 per cent at end-2014,” it said.’
I don’t understand the idea that OPEC can just “raise the price” of oil. They can withhold supply, but the prices are set in the market. It looks to me like OPEC might need money as much as anyone.
You really don’t hear much in the mainstream news about any collapse in the oil patches here in the US. I have to admit my eyes tend to glaze over when I see articles about it because it isn’t anywhere near my area. I think such a crash is happening though, right? Just not being widely reported because it would make the economy look bad?
That’s a strange notion considerating that falling prices results in an accelerating vibrant economy.
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Comment by Karen
2015-08-23 10:28:34
You seem to be one of the only people who understand this. Prices fell throughout the 19th century in the US, and our economy grew tremendously. The average person in the US was immeasurably better off at the end of the 19th century than at the beginning.
And, with falling prices, no one needs to worry about “investing” for retirement. All you have to do os save some money, and every year it becomes more valuable, i.e. buys more stuff.
Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-08-23 11:15:05
Let me restate my loose language, falling prices would make the illusion fake economy look bad.
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-23 11:27:22
“You seem to be one of the only people who understand this.”
There are some others around here who understand it intuitively. They don’t come right out and say it but allude to it in their posts. TJ is one.
Comment by tj
2015-08-23 11:28:06
under normal circumstances, a declining GPL is an indication of a strengthening economy. the question then should be how to get a strengthening economy.
most of the politicos get it exactly wrong (i think willfully).
you need freedom in a few areas to get a good economy.
first, let the market set interest rates. fed targeting is counter productive. it’s known as having a free market in money, and would cure many ills.
second, strengthen property rights allowing people to keep what they earn.
third, reduce taxes and roll back regulations as they each stifle business.
do that would generate wealth and create better paying jobs along with declining GPL. the country would prosper, but of course people would continue to complain and demand that the politicos “do something” to make things “better” without realizing that they were asking for more intervention..
While I was in Colorado earlier this summer, I talked to a guy who was out camping with his family. He told me he had been working in the oil industry out there in west CO and was laid off in February, along with several other coworkers. He certainly believed there had been a slow-down!
When Yellen unleases QE4, further debasing the currency, gasoline and everything else were get more costly, while your income stays the same. But there is no inflation….
Meanwhile, the Oligopoly-owned MSM, fearing what could happen if the sheeple look up from their grazing, serves up more of the burning issues of our time for the 95 percenter ‘tards.
Vice President Joe Biden today will kick off the Obama administration’s “Recovery Summer,” a six-week-long push designed to highlight the jobs accompanying a surge in stimulus-funded projects to improve highways, parks, drinking water and other public works.
David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the president, said: “This summer will be the most active Recovery Act season yet, with thousands of highly-visible road, bridge, water and other infrastructure projects breaking ground across the country, giving the American people a first-hand look at the Recovery Act in their own backyards and making it crystal clear what the cost would have been of doing nothing.”
Biden, President Barack Obama and other administration officials will travel to more than two dozen Recovery Act project sites in coming weeks. On Friday, the president will travel to Columbus, Ohio, to mark the groundbreaking of the 10,000th Recovery Act road project to get under way. The administration says the road improvement project in downtown Columbus is expected to create over 300 construction jobs, and will contribute to a broader economic development effort in the area around Nationwide Children’s Hospital.
On Monday, Biden will travel to Midland, Mich., for the groundbreaking of the new Dow Kokam advanced battery manufacturing facility – a project made possible by a $161 million Recovery Act advanced battery grant awarded last year. In addition to creating 1,000 construction jobs, Dow says the project will eventually employ 800 permanent manufacturing workers.
“Transportation: There will be six times as many highway projects underway in July 2010 as in July 2009 – projects will surge from 1,750 last summer to over 10,000 this summer. And while last summer we improved about 9,000 miles of highway, this summer we’ll improve over 30,000 miles – that’s the equivalent of ten cross-country road trips on improved highways.
“Clean and Drinking Water: This summer over 3,000 clean and drinking water projects will have started versus just over 100 last summer – that’s nearly 30 times as many.
O care is a good idea, horrible execution. The insurance co’s win, got millions more customers all gov subsidized. When will rates go down? When will more competition be added? They need to keep working on it!!
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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 11:34:24
Obama will be richly rewarded by the “healthcare” (keep ‘em sick perpetually and “manage” the unwellness” cartels once he leaves office, just like the financial services sector richly rewarded Bill and Hillary for repealing Glass-Steagal.
Comment by Califoh20
2015-08-23 20:02:11
Keep working on it! Where are all the other brilliant ideas? We cant just have the uninsured using the e-room then the tax payer paying for it as we did in the past.
Provide a alternative OR just come out a say F@#K the people who don’t have any health insurance….
provide an alternative? you mean like provide an alternative when you cut out a cancer? how about just the better alternative of no obamacare?
i’ll give you a radical alternative that would work even though the vast majority doesn’t think it would work. outlaw health insurance. you’d see medical bills crash practically overnight.
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Comment by phony scandals
2015-08-23 12:29:15
“outlaw health insurance. you’d see medical bills crash practically overnight.”
The same lemmings who thought a Soros-backed candidate would bring “Change we can believe in” or that Hillary is a champion of the middle class (or Jeb is a “responsible conservative”) will have no trouble swallowing the lie that unemployment is 5.3% or inflation is under 2%, ‘cuz the Fed says so….
“On Monday, Biden will travel to Midland, Mich., for the groundbreaking of the new Dow Kokam advanced battery manufacturing facility – a project made possible by a $161 million Recovery Act advanced battery grant awarded last year. In addition to creating 1,000 construction jobs, Dow says the project will eventually employ 800 permanent manufacturing workers.”
Michigan battery companies fall short of job claims
10:33 AM, March 16, 2014
The massive surge of Michigan tax credits and federal stimulus dollars that charged up the state’s nascent battery industry five years ago failed to generate the thousands of jobs that were promised.
“We got the cart before the horse,” said Dave Cole, chairman emeritus of the Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research.
Today, Michigan has only a few hundred battery workers in four plants — despite $861 million in Obama administration stimulus grants and $543 million in Michigan tax credits awarded by former Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration in 2009.
■ Dow-Kokam. The partnership between Dow Chemical, Kokam America and Townsend Ventures was dissolved last year when Dow sold its stake to Townsend, which operates a 400,000-square-foot plant in Midland with 225 workers. A Townsend executive, Rick Cundiff, said the plant is running at 10% of capacity.
That’s about a quarter of the 885 employees the plant projected five years ago, after receiving a $161-million Department of Energy grant and $42 million in state incentives.
Taxpayers who support crony capitalism by voting for Olipopoly water carriers like Obama, HillaryJeb, or Walker have no right to complain about the reaming they’re getting.
The worst day for Middle East stocks this year put investors across the rest of the world on stand-by for another day of selling in global markets.
Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell into a bear market Sunday, and Dubai’s DFM General Index suffered its biggest loss of the year. Egypt’s EGX 30 Index slid the most in almost three years, making it the world’s second-worst performer in 2015. Israel’s TA-25 Index registered its largest retreat in almost four years.
More than $3.3 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities since China’s Aug. 11 decision to devalue its currency spurred a wave of selling across emerging markets already under pressure from falling commodity prices and expectations for U.S. interest-rate increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into a correction on Friday, fueling the biggest losses since 2011 for other gauges.
The Saudi bear market “is a big deal for any investor in the region,” said Rami Sidani, a Dubai-based money manager who oversees $1.7 billion as head of Frontier Markets Investments at Schroders Plc. “But this is a storm hitting all Gulf markets, starting with low oil prices to the extreme volatility hitting emerging markets. Our view is that until we see relative stabilization in oil markets, we will continue to see high volatility across the Gulf.”
…
I’ll be watching the Dow tomorrow — will it be a “hammer” day? On a daily candlestick chart a hammer pattern looks like this: hammer.
If you look at this Dow candlestick chart, you can see that a hammer candle was formed last October right at the bottom of the dip. The hammer forms when bargain hunters start buying on the way down and price halts and reverses. Shorts then buy to cover, increasing the buying pressure, then more buyers step in, sensing that shorts are being smoked out. The “up elevator” can rise rapidly and pushes the closing price up near the opening, forming the hammer pattern. Nimble traders, using ETFs like DIA, can make money quickly. They love volatility.
BloombergBusiness
Baltic Dry Index
BDIY:IND
994.00
-20.00
-1.97%
As of 08:03:45 ET on 08/21/2015.
Open
994.00
Previous Close
1,014.00
52Wk Range
509.00 - 1,484.00
1 Yr Return
-8.64%
YTD Return
27.11%
I’ve puzzled over these numbers since posting them. If the 52-week high was almost 1500 and the current level is under 1000, isn’t it off the recent high by 33%?
By next summer there is going to be a major surge of far right/ultranationalist parties across Europe as part of a popular backlash against globalist-captured establishment political parties. Another unintended consequence for the neo-cons.
Parties? It’s way too far gone for that. The only parties that could possibly make a difference at this point are paintball parties. The kind where people line up elitist hacks and government offishuls against concrete walls and make some predominantly red abstract impressionist graffiti.
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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 13:49:25
Remind me again who installed the Oligopoly in power. Oh that’s right…the “stupid voters” of Gruber’s accurate description.
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 13:51:32
Now they’re planning the crime of the century
Well what will it be?
Read all about their schemes and adventuring
It’s well worth a fee
So roll up and see
And they rape the universe
How they’ve gone from bad to worse
Who are these men of lust, greed, and glory?
Rip off the masks and let see.
But that’s not right - oh no, what’s the story?
There’s you and there’s me
Thank you for that
–Supertramp, “Crime of the Century”
Comment by palmetto
2015-08-23 14:08:56
All kidding and bitterness aside, this stuff is very disturbing to see. And my guess is that this is what will end the EU, once and for all.
LOL on the Italian “Navy”. They rescue these people and bring them into their own country, instead of turning them back to the shores of Africa, where they belong. Or better yet, quartering them in the Vatican.
OTOH, check out Refugee Resettlement Watch. Thousands of “refugees” are being “re-settled” here in the US. The state department pays by the head to organizations such as Catlick Charities that bilks the taxpayer to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars. Not exactly what I call separation of church and state.
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-08-23 19:22:18
It’s a humanitarian crisis of the worst sort. I don’t blame the refugees for seeking a better life, given the hellholes they’re leaving. At the same time, Europe didn’t become Europe through multiculturalism.
If you get tired of being priced out of these bubble housing markets or having Wall Street vulture firms as your landlord, hey, you can always go off and live on a train….
BBC
Business
China share slide: Pension fund to invest in stock market
3 hours ago
From the section Business
China plans to let its main state pension fund invest in the stock market for the first time, the country’s official news agency, Xinhua, has reported.
Under the new rules, the fund will be allowed to invest up to 30% of its net assets in domestically-listed shares.
China’s main pension fund holds 3.5tn yuan ($548bn; £349bn), Xinhua said.
The move is the latest attempt by the Chinese government to arrest the slide in the country’s stock market.
The fund will be allowed to invest not just in shares but in a range of market instruments, including derivatives. By increasing demand for them, the government hopes prices will rise.
…
The devolution of our judiciary and law enforcement from “protect and serve” to not-so-subtle extortion, intimidation, and harrassment gets more pronounced each day.
CNBC, like the other Oligopoly financial media, has one aim: helping the .1% separate the 99% from their wealth. The Fed did it’s job with ZIRP, herding the muppets into the Wall Street casino to be fleeced at will. Now that the Ponzi markets are imploding, Yellen will be standing by to print up more trillions in helicopter money so her oligarch pals can buy up distressed assets for a song.
Got to get another mattress. Come to think of it, I will in a month or so.
Got so much cash to put under.
Put 60 day limits at 40% of peak price on Equity Residential (EQR), Pulte Homes (PHM), Tiffany (TIF), Toyota (TM), and Hilton (HLT). Peaks were reached within the last year or so.
When your brokerage account has lots of fiat and you have no debt, you can do this too.
Looks like this is the week of the correction. It will be extended into 2016 and be a rout. Then either Trump or Sanders will be dictator in January 2017. Literally dictator.
Something tells me Chinese bag holders, who can rightly say the government encouraged them to invest in Chinese Ponzi markets, aren’t going to react well to losing their life savings - especially if they are margined up on shadow banking sector loans and the heavies will be coming around to collect.
It’s going to be a tougher pill for the Chinese bag holders to swallow than for the American home loaners who unfairly got government bailouts. There will be no bailouts for the Chinese small investor, particularly those who are not Chinese communist party members or officials.
But they will certainly learn their lesson. Americans still have yet to learn their lesson. It might happen soon. The U.S. government is out of ammunition for bailouts. Maybe that is why it loaded up on ammunition for shooting those who protest.
Some of the Chinese little people are not taking things lying down…
“The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen.”
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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Centennial, CO Housing Prices Fall 7% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/centennial-co/market-trends/
R u a terrified investor?
Why?
Nope. Mr Yelling’s got my back.
No. Went to 50% cash in Q2 2015. Looking to reinvest in Q1 2016 or later.
I would say “engaged” better describes my feeling.
Extreme panic and financial contagion is a bullish indicator!
Never mind that it took about six months from the onset of panic in Fall 2008 to reach a bottom at 50% off peak prices.
The Tell
Investors haven’t been this terrified since 2009
Published: Aug 21, 2015 5:02 p.m. ET
Bottom near, but they never happen on a Friday: Jeffrey Saut
Everett Collection
By William Watts
Deputy markets editor
Stock-market investors haven’t been this scared since the financial crisis, and that’s good news for bulls looking for a market bottom, says longtime bull Jeffrey Saut.
“Quite frankly, I have not seen this much fear since the spring of 2009,” when markets bottomed in the wake of the financial crisis, said Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, in a note to clients.
Fear-induced selling saw the Dow industrials (DJIA, -3.12%) plunge by more than 500 points on Friday, pushing the blue-chip index into correction territory. The S&P 500 (SPX, -3.19%) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -3.52%) also tanked in a broad-based selloff, with the S&P 500 wiping more than $1 trillion off its market cap during the week.
Extremes can be a contrary market indicator, as reflected by Warren Buffett’s adage about being “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Of course, some times investors are scared for good reason and it can take a while before the bottom appears.
Saut isn’t looking for a much deeper selloff. He argues that market bulls are in capitulation mode, and that a bottom is likely forming.
But how scared are investors? Saut says his own trading index is “extremely oversold and there is panic in the air.” CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 10, its most extreme “fear reading.” In addition, he notes, that the number of put options, which give the right but not the obligation to sell a stock at a certain price, being bought by traders outnumbers to volume of call options, which give the right but not the obligation to buy at a certain price, by the most since 2012, which is also a contrarian bullish sign.
…
This credit bubble has to pop. Fundamentals matter over the long term. People the world over are above their eyeballs in debt, and the moneyed interests think that all goods and services can continue to be priced higher and higher as they extract their profits. There are these pesky little things called jobs and incomes which matter.
‘There are these pesky little things called jobs and incomes which matter.’
Last time, 2009, a lot jobs went bye-bye as the stock market plummeted. The correlation I perceive is if we lose that amount of paper wealth again, people will cut back from spending and companies will not hesitate to do lay-offs. A buying opportunity for stocks will be an afterthought if your job gets cut. Such was my boat in 2009. I did not have much enthusiasm to buy stocks when having a job was the priority. Any free cash I had was to be for emergency costs.
“I did not have much enthusiasm to buy stocks when having a job was the priority. Any free cash I had was to be for emergency costs.”
When lots of individuals are out of the market due to unemployment, as you were in 2009, is the perfect time for recent bailout recipients (aka “friends of the Fed”) to use bailout proceeds to snap up a bevy of assets at fire sale prices.
I’d be crapping my pants to if I put any money in over DOW 12K! Stupid money obviously kept putting money in even after topping 17K. Silly sheeple.
I find it hilarious how quickly the market blew off like 1,000 points or whatever. People start chitting their pants. It’s all a scam anymore. I have some exposure but I don’t even worry about it. Whatever happens, happens.
Why should I be terrified? I want a 50% U.S. stock market crash so I can buy more stocks.
I think I will put a limit on TM for 100 shares at $60. I think I will get my CVX buy but I doubt I will get my TM shares.
I like the new 2016 of one of their products. It looks similar to my 2003 with the same power but more gas mileage. It’s under $20k.
Nope, glad it’s finally done bouncing between 18 and 17.5 for so long! It felt like once it dodged 17.2 she’d shake loose. Buying time is still a ways off but coming.
Did your emerging market investments submerge?
ft dot com > Markets >
Emerging Markets
August 23, 2015 1:34 pm
Emerging markets turmoil: in charts
Robin Wigglesworth in New York
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 10: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of August 10, 2015 in New York City. The Dow Jones surged over 230 points after five days of losses.
(Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX ***
Turmoil across emerging markets has intensified during August and for many veteran fund managers, there is a very real concern that selling pressure will escalate and draw comparisons with past implosions, notably the emerging market crisis of 1998.
Here are some charts that show just how bad things have become in local equity and bond markets in the developing world.
This has obviously been building for some time, with concerns over individual developing countries such as Brazil and Russia, weaker commodity prices and US Federal Reserve interest rate increases on the horizon. But the trigger for the deepening rout is mounting concerns over China’s economy — a vital driver of emerging markets as a whole.
As the charts show, the Shanghai stock market has fallen precipitously this summer, and Beijing this month devalued its currency slightly, exacerbating fears over emerging markets.
Yet there are more profound, fundamental problems dogging emerging markets. As the four charts from Capital Economics show, economic growth, household consumption, industrial production and exports in the developing world have all slowed sharply in recent years.
Of course, emerging markets is a blunt concept, and not every country is in bad shape. Morgan Stanley analysts have made a list of the countries it sees as the most vulnerable, based on factors such as dependence on overseas funding, debts metrics, growth fundamentals and exposure to China.
Brazil, South Africa and Turkey look the worst, while Indonesia, Russia, Peru, Malaysia, Colombia and Mexico are also vulnerable. Morgan Stanley have also made a handy Venn diagram for further illumination.
…
a dollar cost average does not care if his emerging market mutual fund submerged.
“Realtor Indicted For Felony Theft”
http://www.timesnews.net/article/9090352/local-realtor-indicted-for-felony-theft
Dutch voters, like ‘Muricans, installed bankster puppets who despite promises of “not another cent” to the deadbeat Greeks, just voted for (surprise surprise) a new bailout. The slack-jawed Dutch voters, like the imbeciles who voted for hope ‘n change or the even worse GOP alternatives, have a dim perception this is not what they voted for, but like the Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards, lack the intelligence to figure out they’ve been thrown under the bus by their political “leadership.”
http://news.yahoo.com/support-greece-bailout-weakens-dutch-government-poll-110842902.html
The landed aristocratic gentry have always been in control of this country. There are only two choices : a) either open your eyes and realize it or b) keep your head down and ignore it. Either way you can still work hard and get yours.
Neither choice involves a chance to vote them out of office. That was never on any menu or ballot. I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits and is the only one who seems able to do it and get away with it.
Liberal McCarthyism is at the point now where if you are against illegal immigration you are labelled a racist.
Liberals now are driven to censor all who are not like them.
If you refuse to fall in line, you are eviI.
If you refuse to submit to the rules they have defined for each of their social subgroups, you are not to be trusted.
So much for diversity.
Most people just want to stop the misinformation. If your neighbor wants to vote for Jeb, you ask him if he know of the Bush and Bin Laden affair. then send him to the facts.
If everyone had the facts and did not vote for the sales pitch we would be better off.
Most people just want to stop the misinformation.
Not so. Today a good 95% of the population - and 100% of the Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards - lack any capacity for independent or critical thinking, and simply want to be told what to think and what to do. Life is easier that way. Just be a docile little sheep and go along with the program. Baaaaaaa! Baaaaaaa!
I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits ??
They are racists & narcissistic statements…When you have a silver spoon shoved up your arse you can get away with it…There is no penalty or price to pay…Try saying what he is saying while being a executive or even a worker bee in some company…
Case in point ^^^^^
Every day there are more stories about serious crime from illegals. Pointing that out is racist though.
I just like Trump because he shoots his mouth off saying things that we are told are off limits and is the only one who seems able to do it and get away with it.
… and you conveniently overlook the other no-bullsh-t plain talker, Bernie Sanders? The first Presidential candidate in decades with the backbone to come out and say the forbidden words, “I’m a socialist.” Sanders is the _only_ candidate advocating breaking up the big banks and doing something about the 0.1%’’s stranglehold on Washington.
buh but socialisims!
buh but socialisims!
I know, I know. I’d love to see a Trump vs. Sanders matchup. The debates would be awesome. No holds barred, a no-B.S. zone, a razor sharp contrast offered to the voters. Contrast that with a Hillary-Jeb debate. What a snoozer that would be.
I’d like to see Sanders as the D nominee also. I respect him stepping up as a socialist and claiming his position. Isn’t he soft on crime though? And how will he play with the SJWs in his party if he cracks down on illegals?
They can play with him, or they can play with Trump.
“I know, I know. I’d love to see a Trump vs. Sanders matchup. The debates would be awesome. No holds barred, a no-B.S. zone, a razor sharp contrast offered to the voters. Contrast that with a Hillary-Jeb debate. What a snoozer that would be.”
There is no razor sharp contrast between Trump and Sanders. Both are nationalists by their favored policies.
http://fee.org/freeman/why-the-candidates-keep-giving-us-reasons-to-use-the-f-word
‘I would argue that they are both “nationalist socialists.” That is, they both embody key elements of fascism. They both think the nation comes first, and they both think the United States is an organization (not a spontaneous order) that should be under someone’s control.
The difference is that Sanders sees both the problems and the solutions from the workers’ perspective, so he’s focusing on both the exploitation by capitalists and keeping immigrants out to protect the wages of US workers. The losses to US workers matter more than the large gains to foreign-born workers coming here.
Trump sees all of this from the CEO/owner/capitalist perspective. He thinks the United States is, or should be, like a big firm where we all work together for a common goal. He envisions himself as the CEO, negotiating deals with other countries as if they, too, were just big corporate firms. But nations are not firms — they are spontaneous orders.
As I argued in an earlier column, “Socialism Is War and War Is Socialism,” this desire to turn spontaneous orders into hierarchies is characteristic of both war and socialism. It is also deeply embedded in fascism, and Sanders and Trump exemplify that tendency among the presidential candidates, though they do so with different emphases and rhetoric.
Their commonalities are also why our conventional binary left-right political spectrum makes no sense. That one candidate is perceived as far to the left and the other as (to some degree) a right-wing capitalist shows the depth of our failure to understand history. They have both rejected the spontaneous order of the market as well as the cosmopolitanism of liberalism and socialism. They are fascist brothers under the skin.
That both are getting the attention and support of so many Americans should be a matter of grave concern. After all, some clowns are far more scary than funny.’
That’s another useless discussion of words ending in -ist and -ism rather than something that addresses actual policies and programs.
“nationalist socialists.”
Like this?
NAtionale soZIalist
“He thinks the United States is, or should be, like a big firm where we all work together for a common goal.”
Oh, I see:
Trump = Obama = Bush = Clinton = Bush = Reagan …
Sanders is the _only_ candidate advocating breaking up the big banks and doing something about the 0.1%’’s stranglehold on Washington.
Sanders can’t even stand up to two ratchets who grab his microphone and hijack his rally. So how is he going to stand up to the banksters? Silly lib-tard….
Now you’re being the Lola.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaecsIUETYA
Fee times a Lola shows up in force. Triple threat.
You once….
Twice…..
Three liars my Lola
Trump widens his lead over the Oligopoly’s open-borders clown-car stooges.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/22/reuters-trump-widens-lead-in-poll-to-32-after-hard-line-immigration-stance/
I read somewhere recently that 70 percent of Indians would emigrate to the US if allowed. What’s that like 800 million people? Even if a tenth actually did it, that is 70 million.
Yes, open borders, now.
A buddy of mine told me about a friend of his who wanted to emigrate from the US to Australia. He had all the financial requirements lined up and things were looking good. However, in the end, he was turned down because of his autistic son. At least, that’s what he seems to think was the problem.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/27/boy-with-autism-and-facing-deportation-hand-delivers-letter-to-peter-dutton
What nobody seems to realize or comment on is that this is a typical example of a business (her employer) dumping their workers on the taxpayers for care. This problem could be very easily solved, by granting her petition based on her employer depositing money for the care of the child.
THAT is who she should be petitioning, her employer. If they find her services valuable, they should fund the care of her child.
I was thinking about this issue of overpopulation yesterday, having come to the realization that Florida, at least this part of it, is a hot mess, both literally and figuratively. And from reading the relocation boards, there are other parts of the state suffering from too many people as well. And it’s not just too many people, it’s that so many of these people are also twice the size.
Usually this time of year, although hot and rainy, offers some relief from the traffic, because supposedly the snowbirds take off. But yesterday I was out at one of the local charity outlets where they sell used stuff of all sorts, and it was jammed worse than I’ve ever seen it during “the season”. And you can’t hardly even get down the walkways because of the wide-azz middle aged or older lady standing there, blocking the way while she contemplates some castoff or gewgaw on one of the shelves. I hate this because it brings out the worst in me and makes me want to plant my shoe right in her behind.
I could turn around and go down another walk way, but down that one I find Mami and Papi’s offspring sitting or crawling on the floor. Because god forbid Mami and Papi shop by themselves, oh no, they’ve got to bring their ENTIRE FREAKIN’ LITTER! My hand to God, sometimes they’ll even leave a baby carrier with one of their anchors in it right in the middle of the floor while they go off and look at some shiny piece of crap.
So we’ve got overpopulation and major traffic during one of the hottest summers on record in an area that was fairly sparsely populated up until 2005. In this area it’s being driven by boomer retirees and immigrants, big time. Not to mention some of the younger economic migrants from colder parts of the country who can’t cut it financially in the Northeast, Midwest or Mid-Atlantic.
I’m actually starting to think seriously about a move back to the Northeast, seeing as how the types of people I fled from seemed to have moved here, many in desperation because of deteriorating finances.
I’m gonna hire Blue Skye as my financial and relocation advisor.
The proliferation of fat, stupid people isn’t limited to Florida by any means. They’re everywhere these days.
Try Carmel, CA. No fats, not too many stupids. Bring $$$$
Fat stupid kidz, too, believe me. Real mouth breathers.
Also seeing something I like to call “Wideman’s Syndrome”, although it affects older women, too. It’s really weird, where the fat seems to collect on the sides of the body, causing them to balloon sideways rather than front to back. Make people look like a wall with clothing on.
And guess who gets to pay for Obamacare for these fat slugs who can’t be bothered to take responsibility for their own health and wellness?
The Spanish Inquisition?
Try Portland, Bend or Seattle. Less fatties.
The proliferation of fat, stupid people isn’t limited to Florida by any means.
seriously this is the first time in many years i’ve seen this in NYC
http://nypost.com/2015/08/22/fdny-rescue-910-pound-woman-through-apartment-window/
Can I have another glass of gov subsidized corn syrup?
More central banker scams.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/21/german-newspaper-accuses-spains-central-bank-of-distorting-collateral-risks-ecb-too-busy-to-check/
Is this the week the number of “price reduced” listings in Realtor.com start to skyrocket?
I’m going to Queen Creek to shoot some video today:
946 properties found Queen Creek, AZ Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Queen-Creek_AZ/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home
325 properties found Queen Creek, AZ Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Queen-Creek_AZ/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,multi-family-home,mfd-mobile-home/show-price-reduced
When I was there last summer, the amount of new construction was unbelievable. Lookie here:
1,237 nearby properties found Queen Creek, AZ New Homes Construction for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/newhomesconstruction/Queen-Creek_AZ?ml=6
The census bureau says there are only 7,700 housing units in QC. Looks like someone might have over-estimated the demand.
“Looks like someone might have over-estimated the demand.”
I think you’re right.
US Housing Demand Plunges To 20 Year Lows
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqSztKilps8/VFlPKlr52JI/AAAAAAAAhKU/v5oS41S-y0s/s1600/MBANov52014.PNG
The problem is also that they want to sell these shacks for more than the wages support. An hour drive into Phoenix and even then most jobs don’t pay enough for the wishing prices to make sense.
queen creek is an awesome area.Demand is strong and it is family oriented area. homes are fairly valued there.
I want a bushel basket full of fifties and hundreds too.
One day, easy credit will no longer cover the outrageous prices of everything from houses, to cars to boats, etc.
Easy credit WILL disappear.
As always, no one knows the when.
As I’ve said before numerous times, I expect that 20 years from now, people will deliberately commit crimes that land them in jail….for the 3 squares, roof, medical, library, gym.
” I expect that 20 years from now, people will deliberately commit crimes that land them in jail….for the 3 squares, roof, medical, library, gym.”
Some Japanese elders have already figured that out…I first heard about this phenomenon years ago:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/japan-s-prisons-are-turning-into-nursing-homes
Ben, a similar opportunity lies in wait a couple of years from now in North County San Diego, as the builders recently fired up their mothballed bulldozers, and the race to build out planned developments before the next crash is in full steam.
I may do a little photo documentary some time this fall if I have a slow weekend at some point.
My ex-landlord in Las Vegas dropped the price on our old rental $10K on Friday. 42 days on the market.
Yes
Next question
Sunday political cartoons from TBP.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/08/23/sunday-funnies-76/
So much for “We won’t be fooled again.” And the sheeple say “Baaaaahhh!”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/11818324/Jeb-Bush-struggles-to-emerge-from-his-brothers-Iraq-shadow.html
The 2016 contest is shaping up to be a choice between oligarchy (Jeb or Hillary or E Warren or Biden) and Nationalist socialism (Trump or Sanders).
People say “we’ve tried libertarianism but Ron Paul did not win, so we are going to go the opposite and try as much gubment as possible.”
Who says that?
Now that oil has kissed $40/bbl, how much farther down from here?
‘Paul Polzin, director emertis of the BBER, said there is a misconception among the public, probably because of misconceptions in the media, that falling oil prices have caused a steep drop in oil production. He pointed out several headlines in national media outlets that drew attention to the so-called “oil bust.” However, he said that huge gains in production efficiency have actually led to an increase in oil output in the Bakken oil fields.’
‘A report from the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources showed that for most companies, the “break-even price” of oil, or the point at which new drilling would cease, is still well below the price of oil per barrel.’
‘The price at which production from existing wells would no longer be economically feasible is much lower still, at $15 per barrel. The price of a barrel of light sweet crude oil hit a six-year low of $42.26 on Thursday. ‘There has been no dramatic decline in oil production, despite a decline in price,” Polzin said.’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9196#comment-2472147
‘Fitch has lowered its outlook for Saudi Arabia to “negative” from “stable” on the back of lower oil prices and increased spending on infrastructure projects. While the ratings agency affirmed its AA rating for the kingdom, it forecasts Saudi Arabia’s general government deficit to widen to 14.4 per cent of gross domestic product this year.’
‘It added that deficits in the mid-single digits are forecast for next year and 2017 but it would stay in double digits if there was no fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects Saudi Arabia’s deficit financing to continue this year. The Saudi government in July held its first bond auction since 2007. The country this month also issued approximately US$5 billion of bonds, with another $27bn expected before the year’s end, as the world’s largest oil exporter hopes to avoid further drawing down on its reserves.’
“Deficit financing and the drawing down of deposits ring-fenced for specific projects is forecast to reduce the government’s net creditor position to 36.4 per cent of gross domestic product at end-2017 from 54.2 per cent at end-2014,” it said.’
http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/fitch-ratings-lowers-outlook-for-saudi-arabia-to-negative-from-stable
I don’t understand the idea that OPEC can just “raise the price” of oil. They can withhold supply, but the prices are set in the market. It looks to me like OPEC might need money as much as anyone.
You really don’t hear much in the mainstream news about any collapse in the oil patches here in the US. I have to admit my eyes tend to glaze over when I see articles about it because it isn’t anywhere near my area. I think such a crash is happening though, right? Just not being widely reported because it would make the economy look bad?
That’s a strange notion considerating that falling prices results in an accelerating vibrant economy.
You seem to be one of the only people who understand this. Prices fell throughout the 19th century in the US, and our economy grew tremendously. The average person in the US was immeasurably better off at the end of the 19th century than at the beginning.
And, with falling prices, no one needs to worry about “investing” for retirement. All you have to do os save some money, and every year it becomes more valuable, i.e. buys more stuff.
Let me restate my loose language, falling prices would make the illusion fake economy look bad.
“You seem to be one of the only people who understand this.”
There are some others around here who understand it intuitively. They don’t come right out and say it but allude to it in their posts. TJ is one.
under normal circumstances, a declining GPL is an indication of a strengthening economy. the question then should be how to get a strengthening economy.
most of the politicos get it exactly wrong (i think willfully).
you need freedom in a few areas to get a good economy.
first, let the market set interest rates. fed targeting is counter productive. it’s known as having a free market in money, and would cure many ills.
second, strengthen property rights allowing people to keep what they earn.
third, reduce taxes and roll back regulations as they each stifle business.
do that would generate wealth and create better paying jobs along with declining GPL. the country would prosper, but of course people would continue to complain and demand that the politicos “do something” to make things “better” without realizing that they were asking for more intervention..
While I was in Colorado earlier this summer, I talked to a guy who was out camping with his family. He told me he had been working in the oil industry out there in west CO and was laid off in February, along with several other coworkers. He certainly believed there had been a slow-down!
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.
A depression is when you lose your job.
Now that oil has kissed $40/bbl, how much farther down from here?
Still waiting for the cheap gasoline.
Retail gasoline prices have fallen 28% YoY….. and falling faster still.
You’re not paying attention.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W
Exactly. Not happenin’.
When Yellen unleases QE4, further debasing the currency, gasoline and everything else were get more costly, while your income stays the same. But there is no inflation….
That’s not inflation my friend.
Still waiting for the cheap gasoline.
… and cheaper air fares, right? The price of wholesale jet fuel has dropped 50% year-over-year. Where are the bargain air fares?
lol@Lola.
Costco $3.059/gal for regular
http://picpaste.com/pics/20150823_123418-PjhKW9ql.1440358553.jpg
Another SJW celebrity fraud and hypocrite.
http://www.rt.com/op-edge/313147-madonna-homosexuality-russia-gay/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFQz34H66l0
lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFQz34H66l0
^ Sorry for the double post. The first one didn’t show up after I refreshed, so I thought it somehow got eaten.
Meanwhile, the Oligopoly-owned MSM, fearing what could happen if the sheeple look up from their grazing, serves up more of the burning issues of our time for the 95 percenter ‘tards.
http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-style/news/caitlyn-jenner-wears-swimsuit-for-the-first-time-see-her-white-hot-style-2015108
Obama, Biden declare ‘Recovery Summer’
By MIKE ALLEN | 6/17/10 5:06 AM EDT
Vice President Joe Biden today will kick off the Obama administration’s “Recovery Summer,” a six-week-long push designed to highlight the jobs accompanying a surge in stimulus-funded projects to improve highways, parks, drinking water and other public works.
David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the president, said: “This summer will be the most active Recovery Act season yet, with thousands of highly-visible road, bridge, water and other infrastructure projects breaking ground across the country, giving the American people a first-hand look at the Recovery Act in their own backyards and making it crystal clear what the cost would have been of doing nothing.”
Biden, President Barack Obama and other administration officials will travel to more than two dozen Recovery Act project sites in coming weeks. On Friday, the president will travel to Columbus, Ohio, to mark the groundbreaking of the 10,000th Recovery Act road project to get under way. The administration says the road improvement project in downtown Columbus is expected to create over 300 construction jobs, and will contribute to a broader economic development effort in the area around Nationwide Children’s Hospital.
On Monday, Biden will travel to Midland, Mich., for the groundbreaking of the new Dow Kokam advanced battery manufacturing facility – a project made possible by a $161 million Recovery Act advanced battery grant awarded last year. In addition to creating 1,000 construction jobs, Dow says the project will eventually employ 800 permanent manufacturing workers.
“Transportation: There will be six times as many highway projects underway in July 2010 as in July 2009 – projects will surge from 1,750 last summer to over 10,000 this summer. And while last summer we improved about 9,000 miles of highway, this summer we’ll improve over 30,000 miles – that’s the equivalent of ten cross-country road trips on improved highways.
“Clean and Drinking Water: This summer over 3,000 clean and drinking water projects will have started versus just over 100 last summer – that’s nearly 30 times as many.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38654.html#ixzz3jeWEurdy
Why don’t they report on the ObamaCare surge?
Surges in cost, in deductibles, in fines, etc. It will continue to get worse. Wait until the masses get a load of what’s coming their way in 2016.
Heres the problem with the Obamacare attacks…Provide a alternative OR just come out a say F@#K the people who don’t have any health insurance….
“Provide a alternative OR just come out a say F@#K the people who don’t have any health insurance….”
Like Obama give a rats @ss about who doesn’t have health insurance.
He cares about as much about people who don’t have health insurance as he does about people who get lung cancer from smoking.
Although he does care about the $5 - $7 added tax on cigarettes.
We can only fix obamacare with even bigger government…
There are still LOTS of people with no health insurance…
“There are still LOTS of people with no health insurance…”
We don’t count.
O care is a good idea, horrible execution. The insurance co’s win, got millions more customers all gov subsidized. When will rates go down? When will more competition be added? They need to keep working on it!!
Obama will be richly rewarded by the “healthcare” (keep ‘em sick perpetually and “manage” the unwellness” cartels once he leaves office, just like the financial services sector richly rewarded Bill and Hillary for repealing Glass-Steagal.
Keep working on it! Where are all the other brilliant ideas? We cant just have the uninsured using the e-room then the tax payer paying for it as we did in the past.
Provide a alternative OR just come out a say F@#K the people who don’t have any health insurance….
provide an alternative? you mean like provide an alternative when you cut out a cancer? how about just the better alternative of no obamacare?
i’ll give you a radical alternative that would work even though the vast majority doesn’t think it would work. outlaw health insurance. you’d see medical bills crash practically overnight.
“outlaw health insurance. you’d see medical bills crash practically overnight.”
+1
90 million + people aged 16 to 68 who are not earning a paycheck.
Yet the unemployment rate is a low 5.3 percent.
Sure it is.
The same lemmings who thought a Soros-backed candidate would bring “Change we can believe in” or that Hillary is a champion of the middle class (or Jeb is a “responsible conservative”) will have no trouble swallowing the lie that unemployment is 5.3% or inflation is under 2%, ‘cuz the Fed says so….
“On Monday, Biden will travel to Midland, Mich., for the groundbreaking of the new Dow Kokam advanced battery manufacturing facility – a project made possible by a $161 million Recovery Act advanced battery grant awarded last year. In addition to creating 1,000 construction jobs, Dow says the project will eventually employ 800 permanent manufacturing workers.”
Michigan battery companies fall short of job claims
10:33 AM, March 16, 2014
The massive surge of Michigan tax credits and federal stimulus dollars that charged up the state’s nascent battery industry five years ago failed to generate the thousands of jobs that were promised.
“We got the cart before the horse,” said Dave Cole, chairman emeritus of the Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research.
Today, Michigan has only a few hundred battery workers in four plants — despite $861 million in Obama administration stimulus grants and $543 million in Michigan tax credits awarded by former Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration in 2009.
■ Dow-Kokam. The partnership between Dow Chemical, Kokam America and Townsend Ventures was dissolved last year when Dow sold its stake to Townsend, which operates a 400,000-square-foot plant in Midland with 225 workers. A Townsend executive, Rick Cundiff, said the plant is running at 10% of capacity.
That’s about a quarter of the 885 employees the plant projected five years ago, after receiving a $161-million Department of Energy grant and $42 million in state incentives.
archive.freep.com/…stems-Jennifer-Granholm-MEDC-LG-Chem-Dow-Kokam-Johnson-Controls - 101k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-08-23 10:40:18
Michigan battery companies fall short of job claims
archive.freep.com/article/20140316/BUSINESS0104/303160060/Michigan-batteries-A123-Systems-Jennifer-Granholm-MEDC-LG-Chem-Dow-Kokam-Johnson-Controls
Gov can’t create jobs
Only transfer $
Always w negative results
Cra. Etc
Taxpayers who support crony capitalism by voting for Olipopoly water carriers like Obama, HillaryJeb, or Walker have no right to complain about the reaming they’re getting.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/scott-walkers-crony-capitalism/
Now it’s Gulf Arab stock markets that are plunging. How long before Yellen panics and launches another counterfeiting binge?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/2015/08/23/Arabian-bourses-plunge-on-45-oil-.html
Seems like China worries have gone viral throughout the world’s bourses.
Does it seem like China’s move to devalue its currency knocked down the first domino in a very long chain that spans the global financial economy?
Mideast Stocks Rout Signals No Let-Up in Emerging-Market Selloff
Ahmed A Namatalla
August 23, 2015 — 9:10 AM PDT
The worst day for Middle East stocks this year put investors across the rest of the world on stand-by for another day of selling in global markets.
Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell into a bear market Sunday, and Dubai’s DFM General Index suffered its biggest loss of the year. Egypt’s EGX 30 Index slid the most in almost three years, making it the world’s second-worst performer in 2015. Israel’s TA-25 Index registered its largest retreat in almost four years.
More than $3.3 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities since China’s Aug. 11 decision to devalue its currency spurred a wave of selling across emerging markets already under pressure from falling commodity prices and expectations for U.S. interest-rate increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into a correction on Friday, fueling the biggest losses since 2011 for other gauges.
The Saudi bear market “is a big deal for any investor in the region,” said Rami Sidani, a Dubai-based money manager who oversees $1.7 billion as head of Frontier Markets Investments at Schroders Plc. “But this is a storm hitting all Gulf markets, starting with low oil prices to the extreme volatility hitting emerging markets. Our view is that until we see relative stabilization in oil markets, we will continue to see high volatility across the Gulf.”
…
I bet Monday is a -500 day on the DOW.
Time to take your profits before there are none.
the 401k will just let it ride as usually. Me included.
Mmmmmmmmm, could-beee.
The contagion is spreading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/dubai-stocks-sink-after-oil-drops-to-2009-low-abu-dhabi-slides
Got sustainability?
http://www.sustainablecitynews.com/dim_ages-html/
B…b…but I thought our infailable Keynesian central bankers know what they were doing and our MSM assured us the “recovery” was well underway…
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/23/what-the-heck-is-going-on-in-the-global-markets-meltdown/
Housing Bubble 2.0
http://stdanger.blogspot.com/2015/08/housing-bubble-2.html#more
I’ll be watching the Dow tomorrow — will it be a “hammer” day? On a daily candlestick chart a hammer pattern looks like this: hammer.
If you look at this Dow candlestick chart, you can see that a hammer candle was formed last October right at the bottom of the dip. The hammer forms when bargain hunters start buying on the way down and price halts and reverses. Shorts then buy to cover, increasing the buying pressure, then more buyers step in, sensing that shorts are being smoked out. The “up elevator” can rise rapidly and pushes the closing price up near the opening, forming the hammer pattern. Nimble traders, using ETFs like DIA, can make money quickly. They love volatility.
I like watching charts. It tells me what morons who believe in such things are going to do so I can set up my ambushes.
LOL, Tyler-Durden-wannabe.
More dominoes starting to tumble.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/banking-and-finance/2015/08/20/Turkish-lira-tumbles-against-dollar-to-fresh-record-lows.html
Crashing container volumes speak far more loudly than the Fed’s faked statistics or the Oligopoly MSM’s “Everything is awesome!” meme.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/global-trade-freefall-container-freight-rates-asia-europe-crash-60-three-weeks
Down she goes…
BloombergBusiness
Baltic Dry Index
BDIY:IND
994.00
-20.00
-1.97%
As of 08:03:45 ET on 08/21/2015.
Open
994.00
Previous Close
1,014.00
52Wk Range
509.00 - 1,484.00
1 Yr Return
-8.64%
YTD Return
27.11%
I’ve puzzled over these numbers since posting them. If the 52-week high was almost 1500 and the current level is under 1000, isn’t it off the recent high by 33%?
What am I missing?
The retail investor muppets, having been forced into Wall Street’s rigged casino by ZIRP, sense the Great Fleecing is upon them.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-havent-been-this-terrified-since-2009-2015-08-21
Koch Bros minions in their astroturf faux-conservative PACs are unenthused about The Donald. Good…makes me like him more.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/22/us-usa-election-kochs-trump-idUSKCN0QR0QR20150822
The Oligopoly is about to unleash its pit puppy on The Donald.
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeb-bush-donald-trump-2015-8
LOL, pit puppy!
Always heard bad things happen in threes, but the recent spate of explosions in Asia is a bit unnerving.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/huge-explosions-army-base-japan-6306696
Smells like payback.
More unintended consequences from neo-con adventurism and “regime change” projects.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/585501/3-months-migrants-flood-Europe
Is that the same as this one? Some real migrant porn right here.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207169/Thousands-migrants-storm-police-lines-leap-razor-wire-reach-Macedonia-Greece.html
Germany seems to be the preferred destination.
Funny how muslim refugees don’t want to go to muslim countries.I
And yet want to institute sharia in Europe.
FSA + muslim = the worst of all worlds
By next summer there is going to be a major surge of far right/ultranationalist parties across Europe as part of a popular backlash against globalist-captured establishment political parties. Another unintended consequence for the neo-cons.
Parties? It’s way too far gone for that. The only parties that could possibly make a difference at this point are paintball parties. The kind where people line up elitist hacks and government offishuls against concrete walls and make some predominantly red abstract impressionist graffiti.
Remind me again who installed the Oligopoly in power. Oh that’s right…the “stupid voters” of Gruber’s accurate description.
Now they’re planning the crime of the century
Well what will it be?
Read all about their schemes and adventuring
It’s well worth a fee
So roll up and see
And they rape the universe
How they’ve gone from bad to worse
Who are these men of lust, greed, and glory?
Rip off the masks and let see.
But that’s not right - oh no, what’s the story?
There’s you and there’s me
Thank you for that
–Supertramp, “Crime of the Century”
All kidding and bitterness aside, this stuff is very disturbing to see. And my guess is that this is what will end the EU, once and for all.
LOL on the Italian “Navy”. They rescue these people and bring them into their own country, instead of turning them back to the shores of Africa, where they belong. Or better yet, quartering them in the Vatican.
OTOH, check out Refugee Resettlement Watch. Thousands of “refugees” are being “re-settled” here in the US. The state department pays by the head to organizations such as Catlick Charities that bilks the taxpayer to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars. Not exactly what I call separation of church and state.
It’s a humanitarian crisis of the worst sort. I don’t blame the refugees for seeking a better life, given the hellholes they’re leaving. At the same time, Europe didn’t become Europe through multiculturalism.
The Roman Empire contained many cultures.
Oh, the humanity!
http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-gulf-stocks-plummet-as-oil-prices-plunge-2015-8
Private sector workers get to work a few more years
Gov workers get pensions no matter what
See Hungary 2012 for results
My friends who stayed federal employees after I left the feral workforce in 1996 are starting to retire and they are in their mid-50s.
The U.S.A. is beeeroke!
What is the minimum time in service Federal workers have to have in before they’re eligible for retirement?
I don’t know. I think it is surprisingly low. At the low end 20 years and at the high end 30.
It seems 56 is a magic age for retirement for my friends.
If you get tired of being priced out of these bubble housing markets or having Wall Street vulture firms as your landlord, hey, you can always go off and live on a train….
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/german-woman-starts-living-on-a-train–because-shes-fedup-paying-rent-10467712.html
Hope is not a strategy.
BBC
Business
China share slide: Pension fund to invest in stock market
3 hours ago
From the section Business
China plans to let its main state pension fund invest in the stock market for the first time, the country’s official news agency, Xinhua, has reported.
Under the new rules, the fund will be allowed to invest up to 30% of its net assets in domestically-listed shares.
China’s main pension fund holds 3.5tn yuan ($548bn; £349bn), Xinhua said.
The move is the latest attempt by the Chinese government to arrest the slide in the country’s stock market.
The fund will be allowed to invest not just in shares but in a range of market instruments, including derivatives. By increasing demand for them, the government hopes prices will rise.
…
Did Beijing already run out of cash to prop up the market? Seems like they’re trying to find someone else with lots of cash to have a go at it.
The devolution of our judiciary and law enforcement from “protect and serve” to not-so-subtle extortion, intimidation, and harrassment gets more pronounced each day.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/philadelphia-police-officer-driver-buy-211148048.html
“CNBC will be airing a special report on Sunday, Aug. 23 at 7pm ET.”
Name of the TV special is: “Markets in Turmoil”!!
I’m sure they’ll offer plenty of sage advice to help you protect your wealth during the ongoing meltdown, lol.
Just replay CNBC panic stuff from Sept - Oct 2008. No need to reinvent the wheel.
CNBC, like the other Oligopoly financial media, has one aim: helping the .1% separate the 99% from their wealth. The Fed did it’s job with ZIRP, herding the muppets into the Wall Street casino to be fleeced at will. Now that the Ponzi markets are imploding, Yellen will be standing by to print up more trillions in helicopter money so her oligarch pals can buy up distressed assets for a song.
house haters Tiny homes
Why don’t these people buy a used travel trailer for 1/2 the $ ?
They could always rent for half the monthly cost of buying at current grotesquely inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Instead they’re destined for a lifetime diet of Crater Taters®
kray-tor
China crashing hard. Brace for impact as our Ponzi markets follow suit.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/shcomp?countrycode=cn&mod=MW_story_quote
Got to get another mattress. Come to think of it, I will in a month or so.
Got so much cash to put under.
Put 60 day limits at 40% of peak price on Equity Residential (EQR), Pulte Homes (PHM), Tiffany (TIF), Toyota (TM), and Hilton (HLT). Peaks were reached within the last year or so.
When your brokerage account has lots of fiat and you have no debt, you can do this too.
WTI just crashed through $40. Katie bar the door….
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Looks like this is the week of the correction. It will be extended into 2016 and be a rout. Then either Trump or Sanders will be dictator in January 2017. Literally dictator.
Biden/Warren will take it.
Rand is going after Trump and they will both lose as a result. Good for Rand.
Stock indices futures are getting hammered now. Dow futures and S&P futures down 2%.
Something tells me Chinese bag holders, who can rightly say the government encouraged them to invest in Chinese Ponzi markets, aren’t going to react well to losing their life savings - especially if they are margined up on shadow banking sector loans and the heavies will be coming around to collect.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34037122
It’s going to be a tougher pill for the Chinese bag holders to swallow than for the American home loaners who unfairly got government bailouts. There will be no bailouts for the Chinese small investor, particularly those who are not Chinese communist party members or officials.
But they will certainly learn their lesson. Americans still have yet to learn their lesson. It might happen soon. The U.S. government is out of ammunition for bailouts. Maybe that is why it loaded up on ammunition for shooting those who protest.
I may need to get up early (I’m in the left coast time zone) and see how things are going…
Some of the Chinese little people are not taking things lying down…
“The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/23/head-of-china-metals-exchange-captured-as-market-crash-bites.html