August 26, 2015

A Resistance To What People Are Willing To Pay

The Real Deal reports from New York. “With the stock market sliding, sales of luxury Manhattan real estate dipped last week, according to Olshan Realty’s latest report. Buyers signed just 21 contracts at $4 million and up last week, and the average number of days on the market was 345, up from 264 at this time last year.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “Metro Denver home prices jumped 10.2 percent in June from a year earlier, double the pace seen nationally, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. But the June report might already be outdated. Local real estate agents say a chill set in on the market in July and August that will make it harder to maintain that strong rate of appreciation. ‘Prices are beginning to level off, and in some cases, we’re seeing price reductions come back into the marketplace,’ said Anthony Rael, who tracks housing market trends for the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.”

“Rael said that cooling trend is continuing into August, although it isn’t certain whether home prices set a near-term peak in June or whether the usual seasonal slowdown started earlier than normal this year. ‘It feels like the market is at a standstill,’ said Redfin agent Michelle Ackerman. ‘Showings have dropped off significantly.’”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Houston’s real estate market hasn’t avoided the slowdown triggered by collapsing oil prices, but a more diverse economy will help offset weakness in housing and vacancies in area office towers, industry experts said Tuesday. Ricardo Rivas of Allied Orion Group, a multifamily firm, said west Houston’s apartment market has been relatively stable, but there are 3,000 units under construction with more proposed. Overall, the multifamily market has peaked, Rivas said, and over the next few years ‘will be going back to normal.’”

“Mollie Carmichael, principal of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, said there could be a slight oversupply of homes on the market in certain pockets and sales and prices will soften, particularly in the higher end of the market where much of the recent growth came from. ‘We’re producing a few more homes than we are jobs,’ she said.”

The Capital Gazette in Maryland. “Currently, there are around 350 detached waterfront properties listed for sale in Anne Arundel County, and the range of pricing is dramatic. More recently, there seems to be a resistance with respect to what people are willing to pay for these homes. During the 12 month period ending July 31, 2015, the average list price had fallen to $933,734, and the average sales price was only $868,568, a decline of over 25% from the peak.”

“Although the housing market in general seems to be strengthening, we’ve been feeling some softness in demand for waterfronts. This weakness might be traced to an oversupply of waterfront homes, given the current level of demand. As we said, there are about 350 waterfront homes available for sale in Anne Arundel County. Unfortunately, only 39 such homes sold last month, meaning that we have about a 9 month supply of inventory. In a healthy housing market, where you have a good balance of buyers and sellers, there should be a 5 month supply of inventory. For waterfronts, it’s almost twice that.”

“When you look at waterfront homes priced over $1 million, the situation becomes even worse. In that price range, there are currently 140 homes on the market, yet only eight $1 million plus waterfront homes sold during the last month, giving us a whopping 18 month of supply for this group. So, what’s wrong with waterfronts? Well, it could be traced to a number of factors. Most likely, the culprit is a weak economy.”

“Additionally, because waterfront homes are expensive, they’re often owned by people reaching retirement age, and because of the high tax rates in Maryland, many are opting for retirement on the Gulf Coast, rather than the banks of the Chesapeake Bay. As a result, they seem to have been willing to let the waterfront house up here go for a low price, just so they can get on with retirement down there. Nevertheless, we expect that if the economy improves, and we work our way through the current glut of waterfront homes available for sale, we’ll once again see strong growth for these properties.”

The Dayton Daily News in Ohio. “Foreclosures increased in 44 states last month, including Ohio, where the number of properties repossessed by lenders rose 69 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac. The trend was even more pronounced in the Dayton area, where the number of bank-owned properties climbed to 352 from 46 over the same period — a whopping 665 percent increase, the analytics firm reported.”

“Ralph Mantica, president of the Dayton Area Board of Realtors, said the surge in bank repossessions likely reflects the culmination of the foreclosure process for many homeowners whose foreclosures were originated months, even years ago. ‘It takes a long time to get a lot of these houses to go through the foreclosure process,’ Mantica said. ‘Once the process starts, people can literally live in a house for more than a year before the bank actually takes possession of it.’”

The Winston-Salem Journal in North Carolina. “The Winston-Salem metropolitan statistical area experienced another sharp year-over-year increase in foreclosure filings in July, according to RealtyTrac. Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac, said properties foreclosed in the second quarter had been in the foreclosure process an average of 629 days — ‘the longest in any quarter since we began tracking in the first quarter of 2007.’ ‘It’s also evident that the recent surge in real-estate owned properties is in fact clearing out more of the bad bubble-era loans from the so-called shadow inventory,’ he said.”

“RealtyTrac data shows 61 percent of loans still in the foreclosure process were originated during the housing bubble years of 2004 to 2008, down from 68 percent last year and 75 percent two years ago.”

From Michigan Radio. “Bank repossessions of Michigan homes in foreclosure were 137% higher in July than the same month a year ago. ‘It’s a much better time from the bank’s perspective to foreclose on these homes,’ says Daren Blomquist of RealtyTrac, ‘and then put them on the market, because they can sell them for a much higher price point than even just a few years ago.’”

“And while public outcry a few years ago criticized banks for foreclosing on people too fast, the opposite is now happening. With so many homes in poor condition dotting neighborhoods, ‘the banks are getting criticized for almost taking too long to foreclose now.’”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 03:28:21

Denver, CO Housing Prices Fall 13% YoY

Comment by Goon
2015-08-26 04:01:07

Ben Jones I suggest you visit the following neighborhoods for your video: LoDo (Lower Downtown), RiNo (River North), Highlands, Cherry Creek, Washington Park, Golden Triangle, the latter of which reportedly now has the highest rents in the city, at $2,300 a month for a one bedroom.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-26 08:31:24

Agree with you Goon - also head down by the Denver Tech area, Centennial, Inverness, and then over to Littleton area just west of Santa Fe - I hear that prices are through the roof there as well.
Then head to CO Spgs for a divergent look at what happens to a town that is dependent on the US Govt Military Industrial complex.

Drive safe Ben.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 03:33:34

Maryland Housing Prices Fall 13% YoY, Statewide

Comment by Sean
2015-08-26 03:56:22

There isn’t going to be a “strong growth” for these waterfront properties in Maryland. While it is a beautiful area there isn’t much going on over there.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 04:30:08

Love the oil price dosnt matter this time.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 04:53:29

Check zillow prediction= wow
My hood -3%

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 04:58:31

Zillow had my hood plus .02 last week
Are they queuing off the stock market as an indicator ?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:01:12

‘Loudoun’s housing market continued its surge, but a slow in inventory could drive prices in coming months. Across all housing types, the market saw 681 closed sales, a 25 percent gain over July 2014. This is the highest July-level since 2005, yet another sign of the recovering housing market since the crash in 2008.’

‘The year-to-date median sales price is 1.2 percent lower than last year, and July prices dropped 5.4 percent, the fifth decrease in the first seven months of 2015. The median sales price for July was $428,500 for all locations and housing types.’

‘In 2008, the crashed housing market and weak banks contributed largely to Black Monday, the stock crash. The situation, including that strong housing market, is different, and financial experts say the U.S. stock exchange was due for a downswing.’

“Historically [stock market] prices rise for a long period of time and they grow up dramatically when prices fall,” said Ric Edelman, chairman and CEO of Edelman Financial Services in Ashburn. “They fall for only a short period.”

by Anna Harris, Times-Mirror Staff Writer

I think Anna might be in the third grade.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-26 05:05:22

“The year-to-date median sales price is 1.2 percent lower than last year, and July prices dropped 5.4 percent, the fifth decrease in the first seven months of 2015.”

It’s crankin’ up. Let her rip.

Comment by Goon
2015-08-26 05:06:58


Amy Hoak’s long lost twin?

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 05:30:39

wow she’s heavily medicate w puppy uppers and doggy downers

Zillow prediction is wanky
might wait till friday to check back

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:03:21

‘In early July, Chicago police officers arrested four men for taking over 14 vacant foreclosed homes — living in some and renting out the rest — mostly in prosperous neighborhoods. Seven years after the housing market crashed, there are still enough vacant homes to provide opportunities for this kind of creativity.’

‘Eight of the houses were in Beverly Hills and Morgan Park— South Side Chicago neighborhoods that look like suburbs, complete with big brick houses, winding streets and a vigilant neighborhood group, the Beverly Area Planning Association.’

‘One of the homes sits a block and a half from the group’s office, on a street the association’s executive director, Margot Holland, describes as “beautiful,” lined with trees and spacious houses.’

‘So, how does a tidy home on a beautiful block end up ripe for the picking? For help in understanding the context and in sorting through the public records, I turned to Rob Rose, director of the Cook County Land Bank Authority. Created in 2013 to help clear a backlog of vacant foreclosed properties, the land bank focuses on a collection of 23,000 tax-delinquent parcels.’

‘Asked how long it might take him to dispose of all 23,000, Rose has a ready answer: “The rest of my life.”

Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-26 08:33:22

Don’t move here you won’t like it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:06:22

‘Residents of one Buffalo neighborhood can now see a sign planted in front of a house that has been sitting idly since a bank began foreclosure proceedings in 2010. That sign represents the first of many that activists plan to place in a “shame campaign” against the banks that hold foreclosed houses in limbo.’

‘The sign was posted outside the long-vacant house at 20 Sidway in the city’s Old First Ward. The owner of the property died in 2007. Foreclosure proceedings did not begin until 2010 and have remained incomplete since.’

‘Activists say as banks sit on properties, they’re not necessarily maintained regularly and adequately. They pointed to garbage and weeds on the property at 20 Sidway, while pointing to well-kept homes just a few doors down. Those neighboring properties, speakers told reporters, lose value as time passes and the banks do not act.’

“What bankers and senior vice presidents are saying is they’re making financial decisions. They’re not thinking about neighbors that live next door,” said Matthew Fisher, a community development coordinator for the Old First Ward Community Association. “They’re deciding to hold on to this house. This house has been in the process for five years.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:10:30

‘As new, ultra-luxurious Manhattan real estate developments continue to dominate the headlines, it can easy to forget that many homeowners in the city are still struggling with the fallout of the housing market crash. In Southeast Queens, the problem is particularly pronounced, with 10,000 homes currently in foreclosure, or one out of every 79—the highest percentage in the city—a problem that has been made largely intractable by banks’ unwillingness to abide by federally-mandated loan modification laws, according to Councilmember Rory I. Lancman.’

‘Foreclosures, moreover, continue to clog the state’s civil court system, according to Jacob Inwald, the director of foreclosure prevention at Legal Services NYC, accounting for more than a third of all civil cases. “We’re standing here with a very clear message to banks—stop wasting our time,” councilmember Dan Garodnick said. “The recession may be over, but we’ve seen foreclosures continue to spike in New York City, especially in Southeast Queens.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:16:57

‘A look inside 1 of N.J.’s many abandoned homes’

‘The property is just one example of a problem plaguing communities nationwide. The recession and downturn in the housing market led to scores of homeowners defaulting on their mortgages.’

‘As foreclosure proceedings began, many simply gave up and walked away, abandoning their homes before banks had completed foreclosure and taken ownership. Others were taken back by the banks but remain off the market.’

‘Bozorth doesn’t know for certain what happened to the family living here. She says they left on a July 4 weekend about six years ago and never returned. The mortgage holder on the property was Bank of America. About two years ago, it sold the mortgage to Green Tree Servicing. Green Tree began foreclosure proceedings in November 2014, according to real estate records.’

‘Bozorth, who is a retired real estate broker, is angry that the property has been allowed to deteriorate and that no one is taking responsibility for maintaining it. “I don’t know who is more guilty, the township or the mortgage company,” Bozorth said.’

‘A house next door to this property is for sale. ‘How they have tolerated this is beyond me,’ Bozorth said of the next-door neighbors. ‘The chances of them selling their house are very slim. If I pulled up here and saw this next door, I’d be scared to death that this was going to sit here another 10 years.’

‘The Cooper family put their home up for sale about a month ago, said Megan Cooper as she stood in the front yard on a recent morning looking at the vacant home next door. She had one word to describe living next to 550 Princeton — ‘Hell.’

Megan, you are the foam.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-08-26 08:35:44

Ben - you gotta see this web site for the Vinoly tower just off Central Park.

Linky here…..

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 05:10:37

Alexandria, VA Housing Prices Fall 8% YoY; Demand For Housing Dwindles

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 05:17:28

Westport, CT Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

The WannabeWealthy crowd is stampeding each other as they head for the exit.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 05:57:28

w a 0 yoy change why would they predict an increase for next yr?
are banksters coming back to westport?

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 06:04:58

I don’t know how they figure prices would rise when prices are falling.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-08-26 05:18:11

are there other prediction sites?
Movoto is historical

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by azdude
2015-08-26 08:53:49

same old sh@t today?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-08-26 09:38:03

What’s not to like about collapsing demand and falling prices?

Remember…. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices. Nothing.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 05:20:33

‘Stonehill Pines, the long-stalled future resort home to two Jack Nicklaus-designed golf courses, is headed to the auction block. The 1,485-acre parcel adjacent to Pinewild Country Club in Pinehurst just north of Foxfire Village will be up for bid online Sept. 10.’

‘Foxfire Village approved the planned unit development zoning, annexation and the developer’s master plan for the project in March 2009. Construction was originally expected to start in spring 2010.’

‘Plans called for building up to 1,050 homes, a 250-room Ritz-Carlton hotel, 120,000 square feet of conference space, 90,000 square feet of commercial retail space and the two Nicklaus-designed courses.’

‘The project was expected to bring another 1,300 full-time residents to Foxfire Village.’

‘The auction announcement also lists, among other approved allowances, a 20,000-square-foot spa, and an amphitheater and boathouse.’

‘Ownership of the property is dissolving. Douglas Johnson, managing director of the auction house, said the land would appeal to resort and recreational developers or individuals interested in farming the timber until the property is developed.’

‘Stonehill Capital Group of Florida paid $19.7 million for the property in February 2008, near the height of the recession. Bids start at $4,000 per acre, or $5.9 million for the total acreage, according to CBRE’s website.’

Comment by Goon
2015-08-26 05:52:01

I spent last Christmas in Pinehurst. It’s not quite Social Register money (like Onwentsia Golf Club in Lake Forest, IL) but it’s pretty nice. And when somebody pours you a scotch there, they pour alot.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 05:24:38

Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Fall 6% YoY; Mortgage Defaults Rise

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 05:27:15

Frisco, TX Housing Prices Plunge 12% YoY; Declines Spread On Oil Bust

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 06:17:37

‘Tech startups are on notice. Even though the stock market didn’t go into another free fall Tuesday, the market rout over the past week signals anxious times ahead for tech entrepreneurs who may be looking for more private investment and considering an IPO.’

‘The forecast: Money will get tighter. To survive, companies may have to lay off staff, close offices and curtail expansion plans. Some firms won’t make it.’

‘The upside is that fear injects realism into the tech ecosystem and tamps down the danger of a real bubble developing — and bursting. The downside, though, is that investors may abandon good ideas and promising innovations with a new conservatism based on market forces they can’t control.’

‘The warnings have hearkened back to the dot-com era when tech firms spent like mad to grow fast. When the money started drying up, they struggled to meet payroll. WebVan, the poster child of the era, went bankrupt in 2001.’

‘This time around, tech has largely ignored those alerts. And why not? The money is sloshing around — with about 130 private companies deemed “unicorns” after being valued at more than $1 billion. Venture firms invested $9.1 billion in the second quarter of this year, a 16 percent jump from the same period last year.’

‘Steep drops in the stock market, even if they are related to economic issues in places such as China, have a psychological effect on Silicon Valley. Venture capitalists, who fear they may not see exits as planned, become more skeptical before reaching into their pockets again to join another round. They will push companies in their portfolios to show their road to profitability rather than their plans to get big fast.’

“The winter is coming,” said Susan Lucas-Conwell, who advises companies on innovation. “At some point, there needs to be a healthy correction.” Companies at the “unicorn” level, such as Uber and Snapchat, which are burning through millions each month, are the most vulnerable, she said.’

‘A smattering of tech firms — HomeJoy and Zirtual — shuttered even before the most recent drop. ( swooped in and reopened Zirtual, rehiring 60 of its 400 employees). One company, RainDance Tech, a Massachusetts-based firm, pulled its IPO this week. Lyft, Square and Pure Storage, a Mountain View-based storage firm that has filed for IPO, are among those that will be “heavily impacted from the market turmoil,” according to PrivCo, a research firm that specializes on private companies.’

“Some of those companies will be told that there will be no new money coming in,” said Sam Hamadeh, founder and chief executive of PrivCo. “Or money will come, but at half of its valuation. It’s going to be worse for those planning to go public. This is right before the most important IPO period in the year. It throws everything off. It’s going to start to spread the infection.”

When you hear stuff like this:

‘The money is sloshing around’

Somebody is about to get an eye poked out.

Comment by Anonymous
2015-08-26 06:24:01

Obviously, the Las Vegas home market is great! Sam Nazarian just sold his mansion here for $11 million!

Of course, this doesn’t look so great if you consider it was listed in May at $17.5 million. How’s that for a price reduction?!

Sam Nazarian was seller. He was the mastermind behind the SLS hotel/casino. This is the old Sahara, completely gutted and remodeled and reopened a year ago. However, it has been hemmoraghing cash, and Nazarian got booted from running the place.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-08-26 09:06:16

Obviously, the Las Vegas home market is great!

Weekend RE radio show offering free inspections and appraisals and, this is new, up to $1200 moving costs. Our old rental on market 45 days now.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 10:32:24

Is that the one on 720 AM, Sundays? I listened to it the last two weekends. Man, those people are REIC devils.

BTW, the Houston link points out a coming bust in commercial property. How could you let it happen again, Houston?

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-08-26 11:58:11

No, but it looks like they’re connected (both shows have a rep from the same mortgage company.)

This one’s been on for years - KXNT 790 AM and 100.5 FM, Saturdays, 11 AM - 2 PM, Real Estate Live. When it first started, the hosts were surprisingly honest about the LV market, but now it’s a cheer leading show like the rest.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 12:06:06

These people I heard were honest, I guess. “Shadow inventory makes sense for banks cuz they keep prices up, and boy do they have shadow inventory!” I mentioned it the other day: I think someone said “buy now” “now’s the time to buy” every 15 seconds.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2015-08-26 12:28:34

Their mantra is “It’s a good time to buy and sell!”

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-08-26 06:26:48

Massachusetts Housing Prices Fall 10% YoY, Statewide; Metro Boston Decline Steepens

Comment by Can_Bubble
2015-08-26 07:27:57

Before my men’s soccer game last week, one of my players was speaking to the ref. It turns out that the ref owns and rents three condos in his downtown Toronto building. The ref was a Serbian guy in his 50s making $60 to get yelled at by a bunch of soccer players.

Typical condo speculator.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-08-26 15:04:39

‘Logan Mohtashami, an Irvine, Calif.-based senior loan manager at AMC Lending Group, remarked that the massive Wall Street selling frenzy offered a blunt reality check over what too many people saw as the perfect economic engine. “We see China is weaker than everyone else thought,” Mohtashami said.’

(Not everyone Logan).

‘Grant Stern, president of Morningside Mortgage Corporation in Bay Harbor Islands, Fla., noted that luxury housing buyers from a particular country could have problems—and he cited a ubiquitous presidential candidate as sharing some of their potential grief.’

“If Donald Trump sells condos to the Chinese for $15 million, what happens when they need that $15 million back?” Stern said. “What happens is there will be a lot of sellers and not a lot of buyers.”

“The stock market definitely impacts people’s decisions to buy,” said Bill Gassett, a real estate agent at Hopkinton, Mass.-based RE/MAX Executive Realty. “People are not as comfortable when looking at their stock portfolio declining at a significant value.”

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