September 27, 2015

Bits Bucket for September 27, 2015

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Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-27 04:03:09

Any live san Fran reports
Denver dive was quick

Comment by rms
2015-09-27 04:22:06

“Denver dive was quick”

The last Denver crash in 2007 was widespread.

Comment by rms
2015-09-27 04:43:03

Denver dive was quick

I haven’t read much about about drought conditions there lately, but it’s worth noting that Colorado is an arid state, and much of its economy is linked to agriculture. The latest RE bubble has certainly driven urban sprawl that requires water resources. When it goes bad again the cities will get what’s left of that water.

Comment by 2banana
2015-09-27 06:18:31

I have friends who live in the Denver.

The #1 question (in normal times) when buying a house there is “What is the water source.”

It will make or break your housing decision.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-09-27 06:30:26

Rents still increasing, lots of jobs for now… But that turns on a dime here. Don’t see much in the way of for sale signs.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-27 06:43:43

….. yet rental rates are half the cost of buying at current grotesquely inflated asking prices of resale housing.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-27 04:04:59

Forbes churn article was interesting
Shows prices went nowhere in mist markets

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 04:37:46

Drudge Report links to World Net Daily article to rally the base:

And because banning immigration from muslim countries would be too easy and too obvious, we need a ground invasion of Iran five minutes ago.

Nobody can call themselves a Christian when they vote for the candidate that Sheldon Adelson purchased.

Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 05:46:52

Islam is incredibly progressive. I especially like how they are now putting up billboard touting their commitment to social justice and women’s rights. Yes, I saw this on a drive yesterday.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 06:26:07

The Huffington Post (real journalists) report on the stampede bodycount:

Salon dot com (real journalists) discuss misunderstood Sky Wizardry:

Haven’t gotten to my Sunday New York Times yet, so stay tuned for more real journalists…

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-09-27 06:28:47

…so we should invade and make them hate us? Or was the plan to kill all of them? That’s the only viable military victory, give that they are all anti American wife beaters.

Do you even read the crap you write, or is this just some kind of of Alzheimer’s text spew?

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 06:41:51

William Kristol approves of this message.

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Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 09:07:04

I will have Alzheimer’s one day, thanks. It runs in my family.

You are the one talking about killing. I’m just pointing out the tremendously progressive record on women’s rights. They even sometimes let them drive.

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Comment by Bill, Just south of Irvine
2015-09-27 07:08:44

“Imagine there’s no heaven
It’s easy if you try
No hell below us
Above us only sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today…

Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace.”

Only governments do democide.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 07:29:37

My biggest problem with atheists is that they can not shut the f* up about it on Facebook. Bunch of 30+ year old adults talking like they just discovered Nietzsche in the high school library.

Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 09:08:54

The Beatles were a pop band who worshipped at the feet of many a Yogi. Hare Krishna.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 05:23:31

Fox News rallies the base with this article about conflicting formats of Sky Wizardry:

Rubio/Cotton ‘16, because we need another trillion dollar war.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 06:49:11

The New York Times (real journalists) report on bad scary ISIS:

A New York Times (real journalists) article from last year about libertarianism quoted someone saying that “radical Islam is like herpes, but it is not A.I.D.S.”

And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links.

Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 05:35:40

Is all the jawboning about interest rates basically a distraction from a terrible economy?

Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 05:48:04

Nothing has happened in the last 6 months economy wise.

Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 07:18:32

is aapl some sort of cult? I talk to people and they tell me they own aapl stock. who doesnt own aapl these days? Is this the biggest hyped stock out there?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-27 08:08:16

I work with people who pay a huge premium for the privilege of having the Apple logo displayed on their computers. The cult includes not only shareholders but also customers who generate outsized revenue flows.

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Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 08:19:54

Some of the folks have an ipad in addition to a laptop and a home computer. How many devices do u need to do the same thing? Do they all wear Iwatches too? they probably have a tv in every room too.

I have a dell laptop that does all I need.

Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 09:12:42

Multiple devices make it very easy to post under several screen names simultaneously with liberal talking points. Lola has a Mango, not an Apple though.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:38:01

I have a MacBook and a PC desktop. Prefer the PC for MS Office applications, but the Mac for everything else. A far superior user experience, even if I detest Apple fanbois.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-09-27 16:42:36

I work with people who pay a huge premium for the privilege of having the Apple logo displayed on their computers.

Ditto, and they buy them with their own money, instead of using the company provided Lenovo WinDoze machines.

Comment by scdave
2015-09-27 09:52:47

is aapl some sort of cult ??

Largest company in the world with the most cash by far and you ask if its a cult ??

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-27 06:13:23

Palm Springs, CA Housing Prices Plunge 12% YoY; Demand For Housing Plummets Statewide

Comment by 2banana
2015-09-27 06:16:38

Excellent article.

It is worth your time to read.

And gawd help you if you own a house or business in Chicago.


The Vicious Circle of the Leviathan State
Illinois Review | September 26, 2015 A.D. | John F. Di Leo

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has asked for a massive tax increase. No surprise there.

Massive tax increases have been the stock-in-trade of the Democratic Party for a century, so it barely merits comment nowadays. It’s what you expect when you elect Democrats.

The oddity of this new one – worthy of note – is the nature of the tax increase, as presented. It’s estimated to be a $600 million property tax increase, but even before it was announced, the Mayor started lobbying Springfield for a broadened homeowner exemption to dampen its effects. He’s simultaneously reaching into your pocket with his left hand, while his own right hand slaps away his own left hand as he does it. Why not just ask for a smaller tax increase and be done with it, you may ask? Ah, that would be too easy.

Take the sales tax. Four or five or six percent of a purchase, collected by the retailer, visible on the receipt, divvied up by the state to the various taxing bodies that participate – some to Springfield, some to the county, some to the town. It’s a memorable number, and the bigger the delta between your sales tax and the next county’s or the next state’s, the farther you’ll drive to avoid it.

If your purchase is a small one, and you’re in the middle of the taxing district, it may not be worth a long drive to avoid it. But if your purchase is a large one, or you’re close to a border, it may be worth the drive. So it is that Chicagoans shop locally for small purchases, but go to suburban Cook County for larger purchases, to the suburbs outside Cook County for even larger ones, even to Wisconsin for much larger ones. And so it is that south siders and south suburbanites, living only a few minutes from the Indiana line, do so much more of their shopping in Indiana, more and more every year.

This process is easy to track, and the taxing authorities agonize over it, every time they contemplate raising the sales tax. As they should.

Our other taxes are different. The state income tax is high and getting higher. Nonexistent when this writer was born in 1962, we had a personal income tax of 2.5% by the 1970s, then 3% in the 1980s, then 6% in the 2000s. The increases start out temporary, then finally get locked in as permanent after a few years (a struggle at the heart of the 2015 Springfield budget debate). Our corporate income taxes are worse: not only are they higher, but the employee doesn’t see them, only the employer does, so their increases go largely unnoticed by the electorate.

Year after year, tax collections have increased, and businesses do what businesses must: they flee. Faced with an unrelenting government that refuses to acknowledge the Laffer Curve, a government that refuses to lower taxes when they pass the point of becoming destructive, there is but one option left: to leave the jurisdiction. To move out of Chicago, or Cook County, or Illinois, or even to leave the United States entirely. When you are robbed again and again, every year, every month, every day, you eventually say “I’ve had enough.” And who can blame you?

Fifty years ago, Chicago was it, for the Midwest. Every other Midwest city was limited in these areas. Fewer jobs, fewer choices of cuisine and entertainment. But you can now live in Indianapolis, or Milwaukee, or Des Moines, and choose Italian or German or barbecue or Szechuan or Indian cuisine. You can see world class live theater in Grand Rapids, or Madison, or Minneapolis.

And this drain – a residency drain, an employment drain – has yet another effect on property taxes. As property taxes climb too high, and the other costs of living in the city climb along with them, it becomes less desirable to live there. Property values start to drop. And what happens then? Property tax revenues fall as well.

•The Welfare-Mindset Bureaucracy: After government employees realize what society is giving away for free to the “undeserving,” they understandably begin to expect more themselves, being, after all, “deserving.” So government has spent a century trying to pay government employees better and better, giving teachers better hours, giving bureaucrats better perks, giving them all better pensions. Governments – especially in the state of Illinois, particularly in the city of Chicago – grew so generous they promised the impossible. Pensions of 80% of salary? Why not? We can barely find the money to pay them when they’re working, let alone for the twenty or thirty years when they’re not. But we’re “an affluent society,” so a century of Democrat rule will promise it anyway. It’s paid with “other people’s money,” after all.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-27 06:57:22

“Excellent article.

“It is worth your time to read.”

I agree.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-27 07:02:58

IMO the issue here is one dictated by geography:

“If your purchase is a small one, and you’re in the middle of the taxing district, it may not be worth a long drive to avoid it. But if your purchase is a large one, or you’re close to a border, it may be worth the drive. So it is that Chicagoans shop locally for small purchases, but go to suburban Cook County for larger purchases, to the suburbs outside Cook County for even larger ones, even to Wisconsin for much larger ones.”

Comment by rms
2015-09-27 11:52:05

“Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has asked for a massive tax increase.”

How long will it take the effeminate millennial progressive hipsters moving there to translate “Black Lives Matter” into less money in their Apple Pay account?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:40:13

Wealth transfer from the productive to the parasites is at the core of what the Democrat Party is all about. Just as the Republicans are looting the productive middle and working classes for the benefit of the Wall Street welfare queens.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-27 23:16:41

Wall Street welfare queens.

I feel like we need to turn that into a meme; it’s a nice turn of phrase, and oh-so true.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 06:49:06

Don’t tread on an ant, he’s done nothing to you
There might come a day when he’s treading on you!

Xi’s China: A Place Called Hopelessness

Chinese President Xi Jinping is touring the United States. At home, young workers of “the ant tribe” feel left behind.

HONG KONG — Two years ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) delivered a simple message to the people: Pursue the Chinese Dream. The exact details were fuzzy, but it went something like this: work hard, be proud, and you will get rich.

Chinese cities were blanketed with banners, posters, murals, and public displays glorifying the Chinese Dream. A hit song was penned with the lyric, “A dream of a strong nation… a dream of wealthy people! Follow the Dream and keep your feet on the ground, we are stepping toward a great revival!”

Mention the Chinese Dream to anyone in China now, however, and you’ll likely receive a round of salty insults exploding like lead shot.

Ask the ant tribe. They’re educated, young professionals who live in near-poverty conditions, grinding away at soul-crushing jobs—not careers—that yield no personal satisfaction and zero financial growth. Typically from rural areas, most have settled in northwest Beijing, where their living quarters are cramped and they have no personal space. They’re smart, they work hard, yet receive no recognition and can’t shake off anonymity. So, people call them ants.

“I borrowed money from my parents and invested in the stock market, then I lost most of it in the past few months,” said Xiao Xian Zheng, an office worker originally from Hebei province who graduated from university four years ago with a degree in accounting.. “My parents have never asked me about the money, but I’m sure they know and I feel extremely guilty.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-27 08:14:15

‘… So, people call them ants.

“I borrowed money from my parents and invested in the stock market, then I lost most of it in the past few months,

How does gambling away your inheritance on the stock market fit the ant narrative? That seems like a complete non sequitur.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 08:23:59

I think “ant” is the Chinese version of “sheep”.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:42:19

Where there is no vision, the people perish — Proverbs 29:18

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 16:04:47

Go to the ant, thou sluggard, consider its ways, and grow wise.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 07:04:58

New York Times (real journalists) editorial discusses money and politics:

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 07:08:08
Comment by phony scandals
2015-09-27 08:21:32

“Are you ready for the super blood moon eclipse tonight?”

Now that does cause flooding in low lying areas.

Kimberly Miller

Super moon triggers coastal flood advisory for Palm Beach County
September 24, 2015

The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood advisory for Palm Beach County until 8 p.m. Friday.

The alert covers West Palm Beach, Jupiter and coastal Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

On Sunday, the moon will be the closest to Earth as it gets in its orbit, causing an unusually strong pull on the tides. That, in addition to heavy rainfall, is what forecasters are most concerned about.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:44:03

According to many Mormons, it’s a case of Bad Moon Rising.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-27 07:34:55

Frisco, TX Housing Prices Fall 16% YoY Indicating A Housing Recovery Underway

Comment by Mafia Blocks
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:46:27

Don’t forget the lemmings who thought a Soros-backed candidate would bring “hope and change we can believe in,” or that John McCain was a “maverick” (because he said so) or that Romney was a conservative (because he said so, even if his record said “corporate raider and corporate statist stooge.”

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-27 23:18:59

Who is “Tears-of-EmptyPockets” supposed to be? Inch?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-28 04:42:30


Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 08:14:03

Wall Street’s big bet on housing isn’t paying off

A few years ago, houses were suddenly one of Wall Street’s hottest investment ideas. A number of funds popped up to snatch up residential real estate in the wake of the foreclosure crisis. Some of the funds were run by investors who had bet on a housing bust just a few years earlier. Others were run by some well known real estate investors, like Barry Sternlicht, who created the W hotels HOT 0.13% , and Tom Barrack, the California real estate developer who once owned Michael Jackson’s Neverland Ranch. Private equity giant Blackstone Group BX 0.83% also got in on the action, ultimately spending more than $9 billion on 47,000 homes.

But now, there seems to be a reasonable chance that Wall Street’s housing bet may go bust.

Earlier this week, two of the bigger residential real estate investment funds, Sternlicht’s Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust SWAY -1.15% and Barrack’s Colony American Homes, announced they were merging, in part because neither of them were big enough to make it on their own. The terms of the deal should give other housing market investors pause. The merger values Colony at $1.5 billion, or about 50% of what it paid for its 18,000 homes and other assets, minus debt.

From the beginning, a number of housing experts suggested that maintaining and collecting rent on tens of thousands of homes would be a logistical nightmare. Real estate legend Sam Zell warned against the strategy and said he was sticking to apartment buildings. Starwood Waypoint appears to proving that caveat out. According to its latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company has spent about $2.2 billion on houses. Yet, its roughly 12,000 homes appear to be bringing in just $67.5 million in annual rent. That’s a paltry return on investment of just 3% a year. Investors would do better in a corporate bond. Throw in interest and depreciation expenses, and Starwood is on track to lose nearly $13 million a year.

Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 08:23:30

And the avg joe cant afford to buy a house. Seems ridiculous to me. The rich keep making a ton of money off this boom and bust asset economy.

Is there any value in commodities yet? Everything else seems overpriced.

It is time for wall street to shake some people out and pick up stuff cheap again.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-27 08:25:24

Merely Obama/Holder/Mortgagee failed effort to keep 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses from bringing prices back in line with long term trend.

Let the prices fall so we can resume with a spectacular economic recovery that should have began in 2008 and didn’t.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-27 09:24:42

Amen, brothah!

Comment by Bluto
2015-09-27 12:32:37

Good news, thanks for the link, would love to see some flippers and speculators lose their shirts and see prices drop back to affordable/sustainable levels (like about 10 years rent)
Locally (northern Calif.) they were there when I was trying to buy in 2011/2012 but it was virtually impossible to buy something other than a flip with a mortgage due to competition from 100% cash flippers and speculators…houses that were then $250K are now $400K plus…but days on market has been rising sharply lately (way beyond the usual seasonal post labor day bump) so the pop may be soon.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-27 14:34:53

The 10-years myth is just that…. a myth. Even though rents are half the cost of buying at current prices, they’re grossly inflated too.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-27 14:03:55

“A few years ago, houses were suddenly one of Wall Street’s hottest investment ideas.”

Who could have predicted a bunch of morons trying to spin government subsidies to prop up housing after a crash into gold might eventually lead to a financial catastrophe?

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-27 08:46:04

American Homes 4 Rent is still at it …


“Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant”

“On September 22, 2015, American Homes 4 Rent (the “Company”) completed its fifth securitization transaction, which involved the issuance and sale in a private offering of seven classes of American Homes 4 Rent 2015-SFR2 Single-Family Rental Pass-Through Certificates (the “Certificates”) issued by a trust established by the Company. The Certificates represent beneficial ownership interests in a loan secured by a portfolio of 4,125 single-family residential properties contributed from the Company’s portfolio of single-family properties to a newly formed special purpose entity indirectly owned by the Company. Gross proceeds from the offering to third parties were $477,715,686.31. Each class of Certificates (excluding Class XS and Class R) bears a fixed rate of interest and, collectively, the Certificates (excluding Class XS and Class R) have a duration-adjusted weighted average coupon rate for the first ten years of 4.361%.”

AMH’s net income remains negative yet it still pays a dividend:

Which means the dividend it pays out is generated from borrowed money (off-balance sheet borrowed money at that) and not from earnings.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-27 09:17:33

With a 50% plus vacancy rate and climbing, does it surprise you they’re losing money?

What’s their cash burn rate?

Comment by CountryClubberLang
2015-09-27 09:24:18

Hiding losses is easy without accounting standards.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-27 09:41:30

That dividend seems like an excellent strategy for herding the unwary sheep into the fold (e.g. getting them to buy shares)—while the insiders head for the exits…

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-27 09:46:25

AMH’s net income remains negative yet it still pays a dividend:

Not only “remains negative”—but has worsened significantly! Impressive.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-27 09:11:46


“Thanks to the awkward position the US has gotten itself in by covertly allying itself with various Sunni extremist groups, Washington is for all intents and purposes powerless to stop Putin lest the public should sudddenly get wise to the fact that combatting Russia’s resurrgence and preventing Iran from expanding its interests are more imporant than fighting terror.”

“In short, Washington gambled on a dangerous game of geopolitical chess, lost, and now faces two rather terrifyingly disastrous outcomes: 1) China establishing a presence in the Mid-East in concert with Russia and Iran, and 2) seeing Iraq effectively ceded to the Quds Force and ultimately, to the Russian army.”

Pooty-Poot will dictate the terms to Obama tomorrow, I guess. Well, this is good news for the Syrians. Bad news for House of Washington/House of Saud.


Comment by palmetto
2015-09-27 09:42:18

Heh, even Israel has joined the Axis of WTF, tee-hee.

Does this mean we can now trade POTUS, SCOTUS and Congress for Snowden?

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 09:53:11

So when the US gets involved in the latest Middle East crisis, it’s predicted it will be a disaster (usually correctly). But when China or Russia go in, suddenly they’re going to fix everything and steal all our great allies there? Yeah right, they can have that tar baby, and the supposed allies that come with it. Let’s see them work their magic.

P.S. Is it just me, or is Zero Hedge starting to sound a lot like Russia Times? Everything we do is boneheaded, everything Pooty-poot does is a masterstroke. Like his getting involved in a second war, this time a religious one in the Middle East. If Putin is sending ground troops into that, then he’s the idiot, and us guys flying drones and fighter planes overhead occasionally are the smarter ones. Not that that’s saying much.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-27 10:09:49

To be fair, Obama has pretty much stated he did not want to get involved in Syria, and that he really didn’t have anything to do with it, except that he was pushed into it.

I believe him.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-27 23:22:14

except that he was pushed into it.

And who, exactly, can push the POTUS into a war that he doesn’t want?

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Comment by palmetto
2015-09-27 10:21:03

And, you never know, could be a thing here. Draw in Russia, China and Israel and hand off the mess. Shrug at the Sunnis/Saudis and say “Well, brosephs, we sure tried our best, but it didn’t work out.”

Now, from that perspective, and given the recent dealings with Iran by Obama, maybe there’s some better chess being played here than is acknowledged. Although I detect more of the fine hand of Jarrett than Obama.

Think of the advantages: we could stop being shaken down by Israel and get it out of our politics, it’s good cover to clip China’s wings, maybe even default on the debt, and let Putin deal with Syria and Turkey (which I understand is close to civil war). In the meantime, flatter Putin’s vanity and let him think he won the day.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-27 10:44:39

let Putin deal with Syria and Turkey (which I understand is close to civil war). In the meantime, flatter Putin’s vanity and let him think he won the day.

Now that’s some chess playing!

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:49:10

The main writer for Zero Hedge is a Bulgarian, and yes, his pro-Russian bias is very much on display.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-27 18:40:34

So Durden is a Bulgarian name. Now we know.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-09-27 10:58:40

Big Chinese coal company of 240,000 employees axes the jobs of 40% of its workforce. 100,000 people!

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-27 11:12:22

Buckle up. Nobody has any cash. Cascading defaults are on the way.

Comment by rms
2015-09-27 12:09:20

A win for the environment!

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2015-09-27 11:09:19

Wow. Thanks for the win in 2016! Trump and now this. ;)

WASHINGTON - The Republican Party’s conservative wing, pumped up by House Speaker John A. Boehner’s stepping down, is warning the 2016 presidential candidates that defying its wishes will come at their peril.

Religious activists forcefully conveyed this message Saturday: embrace our uncompromising stance against abortion rights and gay marriage, among other priorities, even if doing so risks a federal government shutdown.

An emboldened conservative movement signals fresh trouble for (Repub)White House candidates viewed by the party’s frustrated base as insufficiently committed to their cause

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-27 14:36:36

Miracle in free fall.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:51:10

A traditionalist backlash has been building for some time. You can only push so much sickness down people’s throats before they start pushing back.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-27 11:22:03

Aurora, CO Housing Prices Plunge 18% YoY

Comment by Goon
2015-09-27 13:43:47

Aurora is the Inland Empire of Denver, with tumbleweeds.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-27 11:44:54

Have China stocks reached a permanently middling plateau? Or is capitulation still in the cards?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-27 13:59:33

Is it possible China’s financial authorities could announce a withdrawal of intervention while secretly maintaining it, in order to “trick” observers into believing “the market is strong enough to stand on its own”?

HSBC Thinks China Stocks Rout Is Nearly Over

Kyoungwha Kim
September 23, 2015 — 6:44 PM PDT
Updated on September 24, 2015 — 12:04 AM PDT
- Margin loans are at 10-month low relative to market value
- Record selloff by leveraged traders fueled stock declines

Further losses by Chinese stocks are limited after leveraged traders cut $218 billion of positions, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

The outstanding balance of margin loans on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses has tumbled by 60 percent to $147 billion since the June peak. Borrowed funds now account for 2.8 percent of overall market capitalization, a 10-month low and down from a record 4.5 percent earlier this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The figures don’t include unofficial debt.

We’ve seen the worst” for mainland stocks, said Steven Sun, Hong Kong-based head of China equity strategy at HSBC, who has a neutral position on yuan denominated shares. “The whole deleveraging process is largely over.

As China’s stock boom turned to bust in June, traders started to cut a record pile of debt on speculation valuations were unjustified. Margin calls and a government crackdown on unregulated loans forced further selling. President Xi Jinping’s comments on Tuesday that equities have entered a phase of “self recovery” signal that policy makers consider the market strong enough to withstand a reduction of unprecedented state support.

The balance of margin debt has been stable since declining to its lowest level since December last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index is little changed for the month after falling about 40 percent from this year’s peak. A five-fold surge in leveraged wagers helped propel the gauge to a more than 150 percent gain in the 12 months through June 12.

The benchmark index climbed 0.9 percent at the close on Thursday.

The securities regulator has been taking action against unregulated borrowing that Bocom International Holdings Co. estimated stood at about $322 billion around the beginning of July. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has also restricted margin positions on the futures market and curbed short selling.

So-called A shares on the mainland will remain stuck in a range as valuations are high relative to shares in Hong Kong cap gains, said HSBC’s Sun. Dual-listed stocks are twice as expensive on average in Shanghai than Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg calculations.

“About 60 percent of official leverage and 80 to 90 percent of less regulated financing has been unwound,” Sun said. “For a recovery in A shares, it will take some time.”

Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 14:48:16

It took 2 years for the nasdaq to bottom after 2000 bubble. what inning is china in?

These ponzi schemes in stocks are a sure sign real growth is just not there.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-27 14:58:45

While Catalonia be the catalyst that sets in motion a renewed financial crisis in the Eurozone? Despite threats and bluster from Spain, Catalonians have voted for start the succession process - will political upheaval in Spain trigger a renewed debt crisis on the PIIGS that are too big to be bailed out?

Comment by azdude
2015-09-27 15:21:51

when there aren’t enough jobs to keep the economy growing you have to rely on pumping up assets such as stocks and homes to get people to buy stuff.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
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