September 29, 2015

Bits Bucket for September 29, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here:

RSS feed


Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 03:34:02

Warmist Warming Tuesday:

Bigger government, more regulations, higher taxes, et cetera.


Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 05:46:34

A cold blob in the North Atlantic ocean. Caused by…wait for it….global warming!

No one wants to face the fact that there’s too many people. Waaayy too many people. And they’re on the move, they’re on the march!

More than double since 1959. 3 billion to over 7 billion. Over 7 billion today. And look where it is happening. China, India, Mexico. Ugh.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 06:09:11

Warmists gonna warm.

The global ecosystem is like God playing a twisted game of Sim City and we’re all just the little animated pixels on the screen.

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 06:19:30

Yeah, here’s another couple of little things that contribute to global warming: war and anger. War, because all those bombs and artillery generate a LOT of heat, not to mention all the logistical equipment that has to be moved around.

Anger: Angry people generate a lot of body heat, if they don’t have a stroke. Lots of angry people out there. If you don’t believe me, just look at video of riots, and especially the migrants. Migrants from the Mideast and Africa are VERY angry, and they’re gonna get angrier if they don’t get their little piece of the pie. That’s some body heat right there.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 06:30:09

I love warmism. There’s no way humanoids can “prove” that it’s actually happening, beyond anecdotal observations of melting glaciers and sea ice and recorded temperatures.

Capitalism, and the belief system that infinite growth is somehow possible in a finite ecosystem has worked so far, so why not just keep on truckin’ with more of the same?

P.S. my carbon footprint kicks your carbon footprint’s @ss.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 07:30:26

All this dumb yap about sea level rise displacing populations, what a joke. If TPTB were honest about population displacement, there would be a binding UN resolution against wars and coups and such. Because population displacement is going on right now on a huge scale. Much of it is economic migration piggybacking on “refugees”. I get sick to my stomach when I watch some of those migrant videos.

Just bomb and starve people, then give them just enough sustenance to eff (as Adam Corrolla calls it). That will insure population explosion beyond what anyone could conceive of.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 07:44:09

binding UN resolution against wars and coups and such

That’s been tried a number of times. It’s easier said than done.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-09-29 08:02:48

“There’s no way humanoids can “prove” that it’s actually happening,”

You’ve outed yourself as a zealot of the “lalalaicanthearyou” school.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 11:32:36

“You’ve outed yourself as a zealot of the “lalalaicanthearyou” school. ”

+1 Ignorance is bliss.

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 13:17:01

Russ and Cali, goon is being SARCASTIC. He’s mocking the warmists who are never satisfied with evidence that the warming is man-made. Much like birthers who will always ask for the real birth certificate, warmers will always demand more proof of man-made warming. And as long as warmists demand more proof, they will always have backers from fossil. Job security and fossil belching forever!

Seriously, didn’t you guys figure out goon’s game by now? :roll:

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 13:26:38

Kinda like writing: “you say tomato, I say tomato.” Doesn’t work in text. how about a “/sarcasm” ?

Comment by Neuromance
2015-09-29 18:20:50

Goon: There’s no way humanoids can “prove” that it’s actually happening, beyond anecdotal observations of melting glaciers and sea ice and recorded temperatures.

Statistics can never prove causation. Only correlation. Any stat prof can tell you that.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 09:56:56

China, India, Mexico. Ugh.

The population of Florida has grown a lot more rapidly than any of those place.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 11:33:35

Yah, there’s a LOT of folks from Mexico and India in Florida, and they are prodigious reproducers.

Not so many from China, but they’re on the increase.

Everyone looking for their piece of the hot, humid Florida pie.

So glad I’m a renter.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 14:11:07

The word on FL is: lots of people trying to rip each other off. Lots of concealed weapons, lots of idiots, hot Brazilians in Miami looking for sugar daddy’s. Meth labs inland. Alligators. Never-ever visit on the summer.

I was there from St. Augustine (not bad) to Miami (better speak Spanish) one Nov. I agree with the reputation.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 14:36:50

That sounds like confirmation bias. Someone told you a lot of weird stuff about Florida. You went there looking for it and you found what you were looking for. If you were going to summarize the state in a few sentences, you shouldn’t leave out senior citizens, beaches and golf courses.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 15:57:10

I was aiming for, “what is it really like.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 06:20:14

Lysenkoism. Mock, discredit, punish, jail or execute any dissenter from the party line.

It worked for Stalin.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 06:38:03

I am going to start reading Stalin Vol. 1 Paradoxes of Power 1878 to 1928 by Stephen Kotkin this weekend. This was before he got serious about murdering alot of people, but a good preview of where every “progressive” movement in history goes.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 06:50:21

RICO doesn’t jail you, juries do. RICO just offers a way to jail or fine you if you are engaged in organizing a crime. And if you are knowingly instructing others to alter or hide facts concerning your business with an eye towards deceiving the public and avoiding regulation, then you are organizing a crime. Even if you’re the CEO. Especially if you’re the CEO.

But don’t worry, they’ll let the little fish go. The “pioneers” and “minutemen” who have volunteered as dupes for the fossil fuel industry on the internet can move on to gay marriage, or whatever their next assignment is. Most of them work for free anyway, they’re just glad to have something to be mad about.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 07:26:53

Questioning the sanctioned government line is a crime. Lysenkoism.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 07:39:22

Another story consigned to the memory hole by the MSM, which is why one has to turn to “fringe” blogs, with all their faults, to get a truer picture of what’s going on. Germans who criticise the refugee influx could have their children taken away for holding politically incorrect views. Comrades Pelosi and Feinstein must be green with envy at such state overreach.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 07:47:40

Questioning science is not a crime. Engaging in a campaign to purposely distort science in order to deceive the public and avoid regulation of your industry is.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 09:08:34

Questioning dogma is always a crime. Lysenko showed you the way, together with a long line of psychopaths through history.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-09-29 09:19:39

“The science is settled.” There’s some dogma for you!

Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 09:28:36

Questioning dogma is always a crime. Lysenko showed you the way, together with a long line of psychopaths through history.

Oh yes, the commie US government was ruthless when they persecuted the tobacco companies and the tobacco “scientists.” Isn’t it awful what the Stalinist US government did to Big Tobacco? We can’t have the government interfere with the Marlboro Man! He’s got a constitutional right to spread cancer, dangit!

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 09:55:15

It was never the scientists who support the consensus who claimed that science is settled. It was something made by those who disagree with the consensus.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 09:58:55

Did Lysenko smoke Marbs? Now that would be ironic.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 10:05:26

And then remember when the top tobacco execs were frog-marched to prison for lying to millions and killing a good percentage of them? Oh yeah, that never happened. They just paid a big settlement out of their shareholder’s money and retired to their beach houses.

So don’t be afraid. It’s not a serious crime like jaywalking while black.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 04:22:36

Echo housing bubble is about to pop.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 08:29:23

I think we’ll need to see much higher construction numbers first.

Higher and higher rents are a symptom of too little supply of shelter relative to those who want to live in that shelter. It isn’t a stretch to assume that at least part of higher home prices is due to supply issues.

(and cue HA and his 25MM empty home tripe)

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 08:37:22

Problem is rental rates are flat or falling.

And why build more with with all the excess housing and demand at 20 year lows?

Comment by Max Power
2015-09-29 12:56:12

Agree about needing additional supply to cause it to pop.

In downtown Phoenix (anecdotal), rental rates in the buildings I track are up about 40% in the last 4 years and house prices are up even more. Developers are responding by adding a ton of multi-family supply that will come to market next year. Most will be for sale. I keep telling everyone around here that inventory has a good chance of not getting absorbed at current prices so we’ll see if that comes to fruition. Think that could cause this market to pop again unless I’m grossly underestimating demand.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 15:03:40

Sounds like if you own an investment condo in Phoenix you should be selling.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2015-09-29 13:03:46

Many of the rental properties are being built by the wealthy / REITs and such so they can sustain a while of low occupancy / high prices.

I’d imagine the shortage of rental units is more like a shortage of affordable rental units. Tons of new luxury places at the top of the market.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 13:16:34

Well….. not really. Not at all. They’re all using borrowed money.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 15:08:15

Smart owners of things like apartments (and storage too) manage to maximize revenue of their assets.

For storage, most of the big guys have determined over time that their “optimal” occupancy to maximize revenue is about 88% (+/-). If they are below 88%, they start offering concessions, etc., to get the occupancy up.

I suspect that there is similar math on the apartment side, but I don’t know what it is.

However, my strong suspicion is that in the face of higher vacancy rates, the REITs wouldn’t hesitate to drop rents in order to get the vacancy rates down (and thus maximize revenue). After all, a lot of the cost of an apartment complex is fixed (insurance, cost of capital, taxes, common area maintenance, on-site staff, etc.). That marginal dollar in revenue largely drops to the bottom line.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Bluto
2015-09-29 12:11:45

I don’t have much faith in Zero Hedge…but that particular article was from CH Smith from the Of Two Minds blog. He called the last bubble pop early and quite accurately much like the HBB, between the two I was convinced it would happen a year or two before hand (and sold my place in early 2007 as a result)

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 12:39:18

In turn, I don’t have much faith in Charles Hugh Smith. He compared the housing bubble to the dot-com bubble and predicted that San Francisco would be down to 1986 prices by 2012. Meh. Even DC prices only dropped to about 2003 prices (2001 if you account for inflation).

Another graduate of the school of “it’s gonna.” Yeah, it’s been “is gonna”-ing for years now. Thank goodness I bought, instead of tossing out rent waiting for it all to gonna.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:38:07

$4 trillion in Fed funny money (so far) buys a lot of can-kicking.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 18:24:37

“instead of tossing out rent waiting for it all to gonna.”

“Rent is cash in the trash” as you used to say.

You never believed that the bubble would pop beyond your price point. You were going to be freaking rich! Now you have been paying for a few years at elevated price doubled down with debt and so you thank God. I’m not so sure you will be jubilant is prices correct and you owe more than it’s worth after paying twice what you could rent for years on. We’ll see.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 12:42:38

I was turned onto the HBB after someone who knew my view on housing (that we were in a price bubble) thought I’d appreciate speaking with people who had the same view.

Today, I feel like people are falling into the trap of expecting the same outcome/aftermath of current high home prices, and so they are looking for data to justify their expectation.

Last time, we had rampant building, and tons of lending to people without proving income who bought multiple homes.

This time, we don’t have either of those things (which were big contributors to the run up, and later crash).

History doesn’t usually repeat, but it does rhyme.

The aftermath of this period of high home prices won’t look the same as 2008-2010, IMHO…unless, of course, we start down that path of building 2MM housing units per year, and lending to people without a pulse.

Am I convinced that home prices are at a cyclical high point? Yes.
Am I convinced that some places are wildly out of control (SF)? Yes.
Do I think that the reason for high home prices is the same as 2004-2007? No.
Am I convinced that a crash similar to 2008-2010 is coming within the next 12-18 months? No.

In 12 months, depending on where prices are, how much development is occurring, and how far credit standards have fallen, I might have a different view.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 13:07:10

If you think the current correction is anything like the last interrupted correction, you’re deluding yourself.

Remember….Current asking prices of resale housing are 250% higher than long term trend.

Here’s a chart to help it sink in.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 17:11:12

You forgot the biggest factor: last time, people bought houses with monthly payments which were less than fully amortized. Interest-only, neg-am. This allowed low-income people to buy high income houses with effectively with a 3-year expiration date. Failure was baked in.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 17:21:55


2008-current buyers couldn’t afford the grossly inflated prices either. 3% downpayment on 30 years of debt service for a deprecating asset is the definition of subprime.

Remember…. if you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 04:27:29

Campaign flop sweat.

Give it up, twink. No one wants you except maybe your donors, and clearly they are having second thoughts.

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 06:54:40

I’m still loving the irony here. The establishment Republicans need every dollar they can raise. And yet, every dollar they they DO raise can be treated as another coffin nail. To wit:

Bush: I raised $100 million.
Trump: Oh look, Bush sold himself for $100 million.
Rubio: Good evening, donors, I’ve raised $75 million but I still need more.
Trump: Gettin’ pricey, aren’t we, Marco? You must be offering the EXtra happy ending.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 07:17:31

Honk-Honk to The Donk!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 08:20:34

It is telling that the corrupt, sleazy Establishment GOP clown-car occupants are raising money almost solely from millionaires and billionaires, with only miniscule amounts coming in from small individual donors. It’s equally telling to see who is showing up at their rallies: dull-eyed, slack-jawed, low-information cretins who mindlessly vote the party line, not realizing the GOP sold them down the river eons ago.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 12:30:37

We all know the outcome: Biden/Warren 2016

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 04:55:39

Lesson for the neocons: don’t launch ground wars in Asia.

American taxpayers and voters, did you get your trillion dollars worth?

Slap a yellow magnetic ribbon on it and just pretend it’s all good bro…

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 12:32:41

And Carly/Jeb/Cruz/Huck want back in with ground troops!? Duh!

Comment by Anonymous
2015-09-29 21:54:47

“Graveyard of Empires.”

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 05:15:48

The next looming “commodity” failure: social media!

“To my eyes no space resembles the commodity sector than social media. Commodities such as “also ran” or “me too” are everywhere. Want to take and share selfie? Or how about what you had for dinner, or profess to the world you showered or just brushed your teeth? Well, there’s an app or social media site for that.

There’s not only “an app or “site” – there’s 12,946,294,946,038 of them and counting to choose from. And: you can try every one if you wish for free. If – you have a life expectancy to match the task.

Want to know a dirty little secret you don’t need an app to view for why they’re free? Because: their “target customer group” will drop them in a nanosecond (if not faster) and rush to the next in succession if they were ever to charge. Loyalty means – “give it to me for free – or else!” And here’s another little secret, one that’s seen as blasphemy by some and pornographic by others that needs no credit card to view. When money becomes tight -150 billion (or whatever) bloodshot eyeballs that won’t pay a red cent – are worthless.

But wait I can hear through my monitor: What about ads?! You forgot to mention ads; as in ad revenue. Eyeballs for ads!!

Right. You know why I didn’t mention it? Eyeballs for ads are probably the most over-harvested, over-mined commodity social media has dredged through. And you know what? 250 billion eyeballs aren’t worth a nickel more than 150 billion if the resulting conversion rate of a sale that produces a net profit is zero. As a matter of fact – 150 billion aren’t worth one penny than only 100 if again the sales conversion rate producing a net profit is again: Zero. And I believe many in the ad space that pay for these ads are going to re-access and redistribute their precious ad dollars to other areas. Reason?

They have more than enough eyeballs. And they don’t need another 1. That commodity has been mined and stockpiled to near infinity.”

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 10:23:06

250 billion eyeballs aren’t worth a nickel more than 150 billion if the resulting conversion rate of a sale that produces a net profit is zero.

I still haven’t bought that $500 light fixture yet.

Most of the monetary value of social networking is as a platform for the sharing economy (uber, airbnb).

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 10:38:11

All of this stuff about billions of eyeballs is incoherent. American business spends vast sums of money on advertising, much of that on websites and apps and whatnot. Some corporations who own the server farms are must be making money on that. Google tried to create something to compete with Facebook. It didn’t achieve much.

Comment by azdude
2015-09-29 05:42:58

QE 4 is coming soon to keep asset priced overpriced.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:02:42

Just imagine how big the Wall Street dip would be if QE4 weren’t just around the corner!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 06:03:45

While devaluing every dollar in your wallet and checking account. Savers must be punished….

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 05:49:31

The Wall Street bull must have forgotten to get his flu shot this year. But it seems early to contract the virus.’s not even October yet.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 05:54:23

Marketwatch dot com
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks end at lowest level since August plunge; biotechs extend rout
By Sue Chang and Mark DeCambre
Published: Sept 28, 2015 5:29 p.m. ET
Nasdaq sinks 3% on biotech slump
A reading on core inflation may offer clues to China’s impact on the U.S. economy.

U.S. stocks finished Monday at their lowest levels since late August as concerns about slowing economic growth in China and mixed domestic economic data unnerved investors.

A selloff in biotech stocks added to downbeat sentiment.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:00:56

Marketwatch dot com
Opinion: Bull market in stocks will resume when we’re older and wiser
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Sept 29, 2015 5:15 a.m. ET
Younger people have to learn that equities aren’t always the best investments

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — This bull market’s long-term health desperately depends on investors first becoming older and wiser about what’s realistic.

Unfortunately, we’re not there yet, despite the stock market’s recent turmoil. It’s a particularly bad long-term omen that there have been so many cries of anguish over the recent report that Treasury bills have beaten both stocks and bonds so far this year.

This isn’t to deny that it’s been a long time since this was the case — more than 20 years, in fact. But the last two-plus decades are the exception rather than the historical rule. Over the past two centuries, according to data I obtained from the Wharton School’s Jeremy Siegel, T-bills have outperformed both stocks and government bonds in an average of more than one of every five calendar years.

Bull markets’ long-term health is dependent on investors knowing this historical fact and appreciating what it teaches us about risk. One way of viewing bear markets’ function is to educate successive younger generations to this risk and to re-educate older generations who have forgotten it.

It is interesting to note in this regard that the 2008-2009 bear market only partially succeeded in educating people. That’s because bonds soared during that equity debacle, seducing investors into the false sense of security that they will be OK as long as they diversify their portfolio between stocks and bonds.

As you can see from the chart above, this assumption is not infrequently wrong.

But won’t stocks and bond investors come out ahead of Treasury bills if they hold on long enough? Yes, provided the future is like the past and — an even bigger if — you hold on the for the very long term. Even when we expand our focus to 10-year holding periods, as you can see from the chart, T-bills still have beaten both equities and fixed income more than one of every 10 times.

We can only hope that 2015 doesn’t represent the beginning of another similar 10-year period. The last such period in U.S. history was the decade from 1973 through 1982, so in terms of historical norms we’re overdue.

One of the more hilarious descriptions of the role historical memory plays in the market cycle appears in the investment classic “The Money Game,” pseudonymously written by Adam Smith. He described how the market oscillates between two different sentiment environments depending on whether historical memory helps or gets in the way.

On the one hand, he wrote, there are so-called “kids markets” in which those making the most money are too young to remember the last bear market. At the other extreme are periods when it’s crucial to remember that the markets can go down just as easily as go up.

Smith described a friend of his called The Great Winfield who was exploiting a kids’ market by only hiring investment managers who were not yet 30 years of age: “The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money that they feel invincible. Now, you know, and I know, that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes [the rest of] us” who are old enough to remember.

The market’s recent weakness and extraordinary volatility has been particularly hard on the current generation of “kids,” who are quickly becoming older and wiser. It is perhaps little solace to them today, but they are setting up the preconditions of the bull market’s next long-term move.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 06:11:12

Here’s a P/E chart:

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:20:45

It’s a long way down from here to the cyclical bottom.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 06:32:26

The fun part:

This is a ratio of prices to earnings, but the earnings will diminish during a recession.

As earnings diminish the price has to diminish at the same rate in order for the ratio to be maintained. But the ratio is not maintained, the ratio instead tightens up, meaning it becomes less.

So for the ratio to become less during a recession when earnings become less prices have to drop at a much deeper rate than the drop of the earnings.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 07:28:46

Not Earnings, projected fantasy future earnings.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-29 08:04:09

It’s a long way down from here to the cyclical bottom.

Yes, but… If you look closely at the graph, the peaks are typically is in the go-go years, strongly correlated with low interest rates; the troughs are strongly correlated with wars, and high interest rates.

So two thoughts: first, I’m not sure that I’ll get another good stock-buying opportunity in my lifetime; second, with what tends to come along with those troughs, I’m not sure that I want one.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 08:07:48

the troughs are strongly correlated with… high interest rates.

It’s hard to take your cash that’s (finally) earning 15% and put it into a bunch of moribund stocks that don’t seem to be going anywhere. Very hard.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-29 08:56:10

Hard to do, yes—but also the only way to ride the macro-cycle.

Comment by Larry Littlefield
2015-09-29 06:38:04

Forget the E. It all goes to executive pay, with shares issued offset by buybacks. How about the dividend yield? I has sucked for years.

The stock market is back down to where it was when I pulled my last dollar out, including retirement savings in index funds, because it was overpriced. It is still overpriced, relative to actual income earned and paid to investors.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 07:00:37

Marketwatch dot com
Market Pulse
Goldman Sachs slashes S&P 500 price and earnings forecasts
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Sept 29, 2015 7:18 a.m. ET

Citing a slower pace of growth for the U.S. and China, Goldman Sachs has lowered its S&P 500 earnings and price forecasts. In a note dated Sept. 28, but released on Tuesday, strategists led by Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist, cut the S&P 500 year-end target to 2,000 from 2,100. “‘Flat is the new up,’ will be the investor refrain for 2016,” said David Kostin in the note. “Our baseline forecast is that the U.S. economy will grow at a modest pace, earnings will rise, and the S&P 500 index will climb slowly while the [price-to-earnings] multiple declines as interest rates rise,” he said. The investment bank also cut its 2015 S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast to $109 from $114, representing a 3% year-over-year decline in earnings. For 2016, Goldman sees the S&P climbing 5% to 2,100, with earnings per share for the benchmark coming in at $120, down from the previous forecast of $126.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-09-29 06:35:55

Well it’s been over 500 days

Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone at home?

French Foreign Minister: ‘We Have 500 Days to Avoid Climate Chaos’
By Patrick Goodenough | May 13, 2014 | 6:20 PM EDT

( – The world has “500 days to avoid climate chaos,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said alongside Secretary of State John Kerry at the State Department on Tuesday.

“We have 500 days to avoid climate chaos,” Fabius said. “And I know that President Obama and John Kerry himself are committed on this subject and I’m sure that with them, with a lot of other friends, we shall be able to reach success in this very important matter.”

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 06:59:09

Warmists gonna warm.

Article about muslim terrists in Bangladesh (population 160+ million) reports that “the crusader coalition” is not safe. And when their country drowns because of warmism, all those brown muslim Acts Of Love™ are coming here, LOLZ.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:48:48

HillaryJeb will be on the border to serenade them with their version of “Stumblin’ in” while Comrade Pelosi scrambles to hand each one of them their offical DNC votes-for-entitlements contract.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 08:33:34

Disappointed who?

I would like to see a little lower year on year price growth (1-2% would feel better than 5%). But prices easing a bit is better IMHO than them accelerating upward.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 09:29:25

At current levels of housing demand at 20 year lows, what difference does price make?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 06:59:00

The MSM have been the Oligopoly’s trusty border collies for herding the sheeple into the globalists’ incorporated neoliberal plantation and conditioning them to love their serfdom. But now there’s a fly in the ointment - while the thinking 5% have always distrusted the media, now more of the non-thinking 95% are becoming distrustful as well.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 07:16:33

And remember, ZeroHedge bad, Breibart bad, Infowars bad, and New York Times Washington Post CNN NPR Huffington Post doubleplusgood real journalists.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 07:42:20

Another Orwellian gem that went unreported by the MSM. Always thought Infowars was a moonbat site, but I’ll give them credit, they expose stories ignored or suppressed by the oligarch-owned media.

Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 09:00:35

ZeroHedge bad

You got that right. The signal-to-noise ratio is low. Very low.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 09:05:37

I like their economic stuff. Their political stuff reminds me of AlbqDan.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 09:34:39

I’ve seen very little economics on ZH. It’s just the same old doomsday market speculation and shallow “analysis” repeated every day.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 10:17:00

Go back to HuffPo, WPA, and stop your womanish carping.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 11:28:22

Please don’t get angry with me Raymond. Talk to Tyler, he still has your driver’s license.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:42:05

And I’m on my way to vet school. What do you mean, WPA, that you didn’t want me to nueter your prize poodle?!

Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 10:00:24

But now there’s a fly in the ointment - while the thinking 5% have always distrusted the media, now more of the non-thinking 95% are becoming distrustful as well.

There’s very little trust in any institutions at this point - government, business, education, religion, political parties.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 07:03:03

Why oh why was I never “victimized” by teacher-vixens like this back in High School, who could have rounded out my education? All my female teachers looked like Ben Franklin.

Comment by rms
2015-09-29 14:29:03

Teenager says the pair had regular, unprotected sex and that the abuse had left him “scarred for life”

Fifty times? Hehe. This kid is trying to milk the school system. He’ll probably grow up to be a shyster lawyer.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:44:15

Van Halen: Hot for Teacher.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 07:09:51

Wall Street Journal - the Middle Class Squeeze:

Maybe you should have saved more money or finished college or gotten a better job before you bought that overpriced house and got married and started breeding?

Comment by Anonymous
2015-09-29 22:09:32

“In the U.S. and Britain, the percentage of citizens owning stocks or houses is well down from the late 1980s.”

How can fewer people in the U.S. be stock owners, given how 401-K’s have been supplanting pension plans?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 07:10:40

Now that the shale bust has emptied out North Dakota’s man-camps, and the new housing developments under construction face the prospect of going bust, Obama and the DNC have the ideal housing to resettle tens of thousands of Syrian refugees/entitlement voters.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 08:04:21

Anyone looking for a gently-used trailer from an oil-roughneck man camp?

As the migrant workers leave, their castoffs pile up in scrap yards such as TJ’s Autobody & Salvage outside Alexander, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) south of Williston. More than 400 discarded vehicles crowd its lot, including souped-up pickup trucks and an RV with rotting potatoes and a dead mouse in the sink.

“I wake up and RVs are in my driveway,” said owner Tom Novak. “It’s insane; there are empty campers everywhere.”

Comment by redmondjp
2015-09-29 15:59:03

And not just trailers!

King Ranch crew cab F350s with the jackemup kit and Rollin Coal mod already done (confederate flag stickers optional, depending upon location).

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 08:35:19

We were pitched on a large number of developments up in shale country.

We were always too concerned about the market being entirely tied to oil, and that the boom would ultimately end.

I can’t tell you how happy I am that we passed on the investments.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-09-29 09:08:31

Seems like a no-brainer—why would you guys even consider investing in a boom-town phenomenon that was so predictably likely to be short-lived?

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 09:18:30

In short, VERY high cash yields.

IIRC, something like 13%-14% on an unlevered basis, and almost zero vacancy, which if you lever 70% of the cost at a 5% interest rate, your cash flow alone got you paid back over a 3-4 year period. When you compare to more conventional apartment yields at 7%-8% (when developing…on a good day), it was ridiculously attractive on paper.

They also had stories of companies like Halliburton basically master leasing entire projects and very nice charts that showed 40 years worth of jobs and lots of housing needed.

It was a race to the exit from day one though, and there was lots of money flowing up there with the same thesis.

I remember thinking that someone might make a lot of money if they timed it right, but that someone wouldn’t be us.

Funny thing is, there might be an opportunity to buy broken projects in the coming year or two. But again, we probably won’t be the ones buying.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 07:13:45

More and more prominent business figures are calling ZIRP destructive and counter-productive, but Yellen the Felon knows full well if she raises interest rates even by .25, pop goes the Ponzi.

Comment by frankie
2015-09-29 07:46:07

Mining firm Glencore has said it is “operationally and financially robust” after questions were raised about its financial future.

On Monday its shares dived 30% after a note from analysts at Investec said its equity value could be “eliminated”.

Investec’s Laura Lambie told the BBC Glencore faced “severe problems” if it did not cut its debt and commodity prices do not recover.

But a Glencore spokesperson said the firm had no solvency issues.

“Glencore has taken proactive steps to position our company to withstand current commodity market conditions, ” the spokesperson added.

“Our business remains operationally and financially robust.

“We have positive cash flow, good liquidity and absolutely no solvency issues.”

Panic over, nothing to see here, move along please.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 08:22:43

Glencore’s CDSs say otherwise.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 07:49:25

It’s another day a screamin’, blood-boiling rage…

CraterRage Photo Of The Day

Comment by rj chicago
2015-09-29 07:49:51

CAT - wacking 10,000 folks;
Deutshe Bank - wacking 10,000 folks;
Whole Foods - wacking 1,500 folks.

Before long we’ll be talking real numbers.

All the while - there are 4 more in Chicago - dead - who won’t be buying homes in the future.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 08:23:48

Yes, but consumer confidence is up, proving, yet again, that our national slouch into IDIOCRACY continues apace.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-09-29 14:01:27

All the while - there are 4 more in Chicago - dead - who won’t be buying homes in the future.

I’m guessing that those homies were never gonna buy a home.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 08:18:51

Was College Worth It?

“Amid recent controversy over rising tuition and mounting student debt totals, half of college graduates in the U.S. (50%) “strongly agree” that their undergraduate education was worth the cost. This figure varies only slightly between alumni of public (52%) and private nonprofit (47%) universities, but drops sharply to 26% among graduates of private for-profit universities.

Recent graduates, those who have obtained their bachelor’s degree beginning in 2006, are significantly less likely to strongly agree with this statement. Only 38% of recent alumni strongly agree their education was worth the cost.”

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 12:59:04

And yet again, they don’t break out the results by major.

Instead, it’s all touchy-feely crap like mentors who foster hopes and dreams, and having professors that care about you. This must be code for sleeping your way into a job.

The only useful metric was “worked on a project that took longer than a semester to complete.” That’s almost certainly code for engineering.

Comment by rms
2015-09-29 17:05:12

“Was College Worth It?”

Absolutely. It is better to have an engineering degree and no job than it is to be employed without it.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 08:25:03

Beware of predatory mega-speculators (and Obama/Hillary backers) and their “comprehensive plans.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 08:27:22

Skank of America is joining Douche Bank in mass reduction in “headcount.” Yellen must be conflicted as ZIRP is starting to hit her bankster patrons, yet she’s trapped in endless ZIRP and QE as she doesn’t want to be at the helm of the Titanic when it hits the iceberg. No wonder she’s been looking unsteady of late.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 08:56:49

Finally, someone gets it.

Why is the rhetoric focused on Hedge Fund Managers?

They want to control the legislation so that it impacts their donors as little as possible, and focusing the ire on paper pushers on Wall Street gives them cover to carve out the people who actually take advantage of the current carried interest rules.

1. Hedge Fund Managers largely don’t care–but it plays well with the populace; and
2. It gives Clinton and Trump political cover when they carve out Venture Capital (appeasing blue states like CA, MA, and NY) and real estate (appeasing developers who have donated lots of money to politicians over the years).

BTW, very few people have talked about a recent IRS ruling where they disallow a popular practice of restructuring the 2% management fee to make it carried interest. Many people have played this game to convert their ordinary management fee to carried interest (which might be capital gains).

I’m glad that loophole was closed without needing to go through congress.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 09:07:07

I’m glad that loophole was closed without needing to go through congress.

Because it never would have made it through.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 09:20:19

It’s a pretty egregious use of the tax code. It would have passed. I know people who were presented an opportunity to use that loophole by very smart counsel, and the fund managers decided that they would rather pay their ordinary income on their fee income than play that kind of game.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 10:08:10

It’s a tax increase, so it never would have passed this congress.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by stewie
Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 09:47:03


There are no bronze medals in the Victim Olympics™, everybody wins a gold, LOLZ.

Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 09:16:12

Another installment in WPA’s continuing public service of exposing Trump as a fraud

Trump, the oligarch in populist drag, was (still is?) a corporate welfare queen. Turns out a great deal of his wealth was generated at taxpayer expense:

Trump has thrived with government’s generosity

The potential presidential candidate and opponent of big government has relied on tax breaks and federal funding to build his real estate empire.

“The Los Angeles Times shows one way today with a smart angle: Donald Trump’s rich history of milking taxpayers for hundreds of millions of dollars for his gold-plated skyscrapers.” —

LA Times 2011:

“Donald Trump, the developer and would-be presidential candidate, portrays himself as a swashbuckling entrepreneur, shrewder and tougher than any politician, who would use his billionaire’s skills to restore discipline to the federal government.

In his disdain of big government, however, Trump glances over an expensive irony: He built his empire in part through government largesse and connections.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 10:18:59

The fact that the Oligopoly media has it out for Trump and is directing so much venom his way is all the reason I need to vote for him. Go Trump!

Comment by palmetto
2015-09-29 11:35:18

Amen. Go, Trump!

Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 11:35:39

Maybe you should drink less Raymond. The media has given Trump a disproportionate amount of attention, helping to fuel his rise. He got a disproportionate amount of air time at the GOP debates. The whole Megyn/Trump “spat” was rigged, designed to boost Fox ratings and it worked.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:53:24

The media coverage of Trump has been almost uniformly hostile. That’s reason enough in my book to vote for him despite my reservations about some of his positions and general douchebaggery on frequent occasions.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by bubblebot
2015-09-29 09:21:21

Icahn video is out today.

Comment by WPA
2015-09-29 09:54:16

Who’s pushing hardest for a rate increase? the Big Banks. They want rates to go up because they make more money off of the spread. So here we have a representative of the 0.1% going public to increase pressure on the Fed to raise.

Fed Rate Hike: Top Five Banks Stand To See $10 Billion Windfall

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 10:20:44

The Fed won’t raise unless/until Goldman Sachs takes out a massive short position on the market, then gives its henchmen at the Fed the all-clear to raise rates.

Comment by bubblebot
2015-09-29 09:22:21

Icahn video is out today.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 09:29:14

Favorable / Unfavorable ratings in new NBC/WSJ poll:

- Planned Parenthood: 41% / 31%

- Repugnican Party: 29% / 45%

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 21:43:20

Rule number one of shootin’:

Aim gun away from your own body.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 22:27:00

Can anyone offer predictions for when the Republican war on low income women’s access to reproductive health care will end?

Comment by MacBeth
2015-09-30 05:09:49


Since 9/30/2015

R = 1
D = 0

Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-29 09:32:46

on House Haters HIVtv shows realtors tell folks house buy 200 spend 100 on reno w HA and now house is worth $325k !!!
how do they get away w this financial prediction w/o lawyers attacking

HA probably pimps this line all the time

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 09:36:44

Your engagement with enragement is causing your derangement.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 09:33:53

Some German bagholder-to-be with far too much printing-press Euros just went full retard by buying Business Insider for 9X revenues. This won’t end well.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 10:24:28

I’m boycotting Christmas this year. Not the religous observance, but the crass materialism of the retail “holiday.” Have asked friends & family not to send me any cards and we will only be exchanging simple, handmade gifts or things like music CDs. It’s time to reclaim the reason for the season.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 10:36:27

Broke @ss lovers loosers:

Article notes that almost 30% are still paying off the wedding six f*ing years later and that the average cost of a wedding last year was $31,213.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 10:46:10

It can take a lot longer to pay off the divorce.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-09-29 11:10:57

That’s a lot if money to pay for a princess day

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 11:18:18

Article for Ben Jones, this happens all the time here:

Denver has turned into such a sh*thole, can’t wait until I move away.

Comment by oxide
2015-09-29 13:09:37

What’s stopping you? You rent, so you can supposedly move out tomorrow, you can earn near-minimum wage pretty much anywhere, and surely your supply of tindr girls in the nearby vicinity has run out by now and it’s time to plug in a new zip code.


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 13:26:20

Poor poor donk

Comment by In Colorado
2015-09-29 13:56:55

MJ shops are not legal in all municipalities. He might hate Denver, but he loves the business.

Comment by Goon
2015-09-29 11:29:44

Drudge Report links to some alright articles, with the notable exception of the Washington Times, which is published by the Unification Church, yes, the Moonies. It’s a Moonie rag, and never forget that.

I am viewing a Washington Times article on a desktop monitor, and there are about three video ads running simultaneously, and the text column of the actual article itself is less than one third of the width of the browser window.

The article is titled “ISIS planning nuclear tsunami.”

Drudge claims to be a libertarian, but posting sh*tty neocon articles from sh*tty neocon rags with sh*tty ad choked websites proves he is not.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 11:55:00


Comment by redmondjp
2015-09-29 16:00:32

Dipped below it, and then recovered at the close above, just barely . . .

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-09-29 12:40:19

Wait until the investigate VW’s Brazil and Mexico operations. Can they afford to spend $20 billion? and anger their customers with a slower, less efficient diesel? So tempted to short, even this late–should be good for another 20% drop.

Comment by In Colorado
2015-09-29 13:52:49

I’m guessing that VW isn’t the only automaker who cheated with deisels. What will be interesting is if they cheated in Europe as well. About half the cars on the road over there are diesels. I think that the EU will look the other way, otherwise their auto industry will be wiped out. And this could affect the Big 3 as well. GM owns Opel and Vauxhall, Ford has a large presence in the EU and Chrysler is owned by Fiat.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-09-29 18:51:46

The smell of BO and diesel together always reminds me of Europe.

Comment by rj chicago
2015-09-29 13:14:15

File under “Thanks Obama”…….
Orig. article is in the WSJ -
340 mil gone…..

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 13:44:44

Wake me when commodities traders have abandoned all hope.

Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:25pm EDT
Related: Japan, Global Energy News
Commodities in crisis as Asian shares tumble and shipper files for bankruptcy
SINGAPORE/HONG KONG | By Henning Gloystein and Denny Thomas

A Japanese shipper filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday and global trading firm Louis Dreyfus posted lower profits, the latest victims of tumbling energy and raw material prices.

The London-listed shares of mining and trading giant Glencore rebounded by around 10 percent, clawing back some ground from a near 30 percent slump on Monday.

Investors sold off Glencore bonds, highlighting nerves over its debt burden and financial situation.

Glencore has been afflicted by the same issue facing other miners: the prolonged fall in global metals prices caused partly by a slowdown in China, which is the world’s biggest consumer of metals.

Energy and commodity prices have fallen largely because of rising output following heavy investment into new assets while prices were still high, which has increasingly clashed with slowing demand in Asia, where China’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in decades.

The problems in the sector contributed to global trading group Louis Dreyfus Commodities B.V reporting a steep drop in first-half profits on Tuesday.

The crisis has also hit the shipping sector, where dry-bulk merchant Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha filed for protection from creditors on Tuesday.

Glencore’s shares remain down by more than 80 percent since it listed in 2011, at the last high point of a long commodities boom, with its market capitalization briefly dipping below 10 billion pounds ($15.16 billion) for the first time.

Investment bank Citigroup said there was still value in Glencore. Citi rated Glencore shares as a “buy” and said Glencore could even consider going private, but other traders were wary of buying into commodity stocks.

“It is hard to make a case for buying commodity stocks in general with the current climate in China and emerging market volatility,” said Thames Capital Markets’ senior trader Gerren O’Neill.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 14:26:19

If stocks seem like a poor investment choice now, how will they look when the Fed follows through with liftoff plans?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 14:28:07

ft dot com > Markets >
Capital Markets
Last updated: September 29, 2015 8:55 pm
Equities on course for worst quarter since 2011
Nicole Bullock and Robin Wigglesworth in New York

A Barclays Plc trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, Jan. 2, 2015. U.S. stock-index futures climbed, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rebound after posting its first December drop since 2007. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

US and global equities are heading for their worst quarterly performance since 2011, with investors rattled by China’s economic slowdown, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and growing pessimism about corporate earnings.

Adding to investors’ unease, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday warned that corporate failures were likely to jump in the developing world, after a borrowing binge in the past decade.

With an array of sectors slumping since the start of July, beyond those directly influenced by the rout in commodity prices, the global equity bull run of recent years is now facing a major challenge.

The S&P 500 has fallen 8.5 per cent, the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2011. Previously high-flying sectors that led the market earlier this year, notably biotech and healthcare stocks, have fallen appreciably in recent weeks.

“The question now is — are investors ready for the first down year since 2011 . . . and the worst year since the ‘bad days’ of 2008,” said Howard Silverblatt, analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 15:54:13

It’s good to see we’ve got HBB fans in the UK.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by MightyMike
2015-09-29 16:36:41

Gee, I wouldn’t think that you would be a fan of that show.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-09-29 16:56:04

I’m surprised you’re not one of the “hostesses.”

Comment by Puggs
2015-09-29 16:48:40

“If you have to finance it, you can’t afford it.”

Right on…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by rms
2015-09-29 18:03:35

Here’s a touching story with a positive outcome.

“Burned as baby, woman finally meets nurse who cared for her”

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post