September 29, 2015

The Housing Bet May Go Bust

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. The Washington Examiner. “The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco warned Monday of signs of financial market bubbles in the U.S., saying that the central bank would risk financial instability by keeping rates at zero for too long. ‘I am starting to see signs of imbalances emerge in the form of high asset prices, especially in real estate, and that trips the alert system,’ John Williams said at a speech in Los Angeles, according to text from his office.”

From CNBC. “The $1.2 trillion high-yield debt market could face a double whammy as spreads tighten and investors use the corporate earnings season starting in the second week of October as an excuse to take even more profits. In recent months, select names in other sectors are seeing yields edge higher, like telecom, wireless and semiconductors. ‘Before you know it, it is the entire high-yield market. Earnings growth has been anemic. Leverage is at an all-time high,’ said Steve Antczak, head of U.S. credit strategy at Citigroup.”

“High yield has flourished in the years of low rates and easy Fed policy. ‘Everybody thinks of QE and easy monetary policy and the biggest beneficiary was the equity market. I would argue the biggest beneficiary of the easy monetary policy was the credit market,’ said Michael Contopoulos, head of high-yield strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

From Fortune. “A few years ago, houses were suddenly one of Wall Street’s hottest investment ideas. A number of funds popped up to snatch up residential real estate in the wake of the foreclosure crisis. But now, there seems to be a reasonable chance that Wall Street’s housing bet may go bust.”

“Two of the bigger residential real estate investment funds, Sternlicht’s Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust and Colony American Homes, announced they were merging, in part because neither of them were big enough to make it on their own. The terms of the deal should give other housing market investors pause. The merger values Colony at $1.5 billion, or about 50% of what it paid for its 18,000 homes and other assets, minus debt.”

PBS Newshour. “This is the story of two housing markets — one that’s doing quite well and another that’s still treading water. Economics correspondent Paul Solman spoke with Nick Retsinas, who teaches real estate at Harvard Business School, about the second, larger, lower-end market. Strolling around Cambridge, Massachusetts the two discussed how there can be bidding wars in one neighborhood and foreclosure signs in another. In the latter neighborhood, banks have refused to refinance mortgages despite the depreciated values of the homes.”

“Solman: ‘Why is it that banks will not accept an offer from a homeowner at the current market price, and then once the homeowner is out, the bank will sell it on the open market?’ Retsinas: ‘Some investors are very afraid of principal reductions. They’re afraid that there will be bad things happening between owners and related parties that would necessitate the bank taking up a reduction in what was the amount owed.’”

“Retsinas: ‘Because the bank thinks my neighbor is looking at me, saying, ‘Wait a minute, there’s something wrong with this. I’m paying my mortgage every month, even though I owe $300,000 dollars, and my house is only worth $200,000 dollars. Why don’t I stop paying my mortgage, so they’ll accept the lower valuation and save me that balance of $100,000 dollars that I owe them?’ The banks are afraid this will be contagious to other people in similar situations with these underwater mortgages.’”

“Solman: ‘So the foreclosure crisis is not over?’ Retsinas: ‘It’s not over. It’s not at its peak where it was two or three years ago, but in many states, say, Florida and California, you still have a residue of foreclosures that are continuing to fill up that pipe and stuff the pipe so we can’t have the free flowing of markets.’”

From Wealth Daily. “A decade ago, U.S. housing prices were rising by double-digit percentages annually in many places, going into the stratosphere. Things looked shaky in 2006/2007. Many people all of a sudden became aware of the possibility of a housing crash. Still, it exceeded expectations, with prices being cut in half in some parts of the country. In the world of finance and business cycles, this was a very short time ago. It should be fresh in people’s heads, particularly since many people who bought during the height of the bubble are still underwater. You would think it would be a lifetime before we ever saw a bubble like this again, especially in housing.”

“Unfortunately, Silicon Valley didn’t get the memo. San Francisco didn’t either. There was a recent story about a house in San Francisco that is over 100 years old that was built as an earthquake shack to house people who lost their homes in the 1906 earthquake. The house is squeezed between two bigger residences. This house has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and is 756 square feet. It is made of rotting wood, and it looks like it could come down with a good gust of wind.”

“The best part is that it can be all yours for just $350,000. That’s right — this shack is listed for the price that you could practically buy a mansion for in other parts of the country.”

“Prime Minister Stephen Harper recently commented on the housing situation in Canada. We will be thankful in a few years that all of his words are documented, thanks to the Internet. Harper said, ‘I think the housing story is a very positive story in this country. You know, you look around the world where they have seen all these crashes, a lot of them centered around the housing market. In Canada, we have seen home ownership rise to record levels.’”

“Could a politician possibly set himself up any more for a political blunder than Harper just has? This is worse than Bernanke saying there was no housing bubble — Harper is actually cheering the Canadian housing bubble on.”

From CBS News. “Whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates is a question former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is glad HE no longer has to answer. But other questions, Bernanke and his wife, Anna, are happy to discuss. Norah O’Donnell of ‘CBS This Morning’ dropped in on them at their home in Washington.”

“The summer of 2008 saw panic across the globe. Given the Fed’s job to keep the economy stable, it all landed squarely on Bernanke’s desk. ‘If it was the worst in human history,’ asked O’Donnell, ‘why didn’t more experts like you see it coming?’”

“‘Well, we didn’t. We understood part of it. We saw that there were problems in the housing sector. We saw there were developing problems in sub-prime mortgages. What we didn’t see, what I think almost anybody didn’t see, was the vulnerability of the financial system to those factors.’ As an economics professor at Princeton, Bernanke studied the Depression, concluding that, back then, the Fed didn’t do enough. And so with the economy getting ‘messed up’ under Bernanke’s watch, he was acutely aware of the potential devastation. He says the problem was that to save Main Street, he had to bail out Wall Street.”

“This month the financial world was watching to see if the Fed would unleash higher interest rates. The glare fell on current Chair Janet Yellen, who decided to maintain the near-zero rates of the Bernanke years. Ben Bernanke seems perfectly happy to let someone else take the heat. O’Donnell asked, ‘Do you miss being Fed Chair?’ ‘No,’ he replied. ‘I really like being able to look in the newspaper, see a story about some kind of problem, and say, ‘Gee, I hope somebody does something about that!’”




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68 Comments »

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-29 04:56:06

4,281 properties found Contra Costa County, CA Homes for Sale & Real Estate

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Contra-Costa-County_CA

1,065 properties found Contra Costa County, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Contra-Costa-County_CA/show-price-reduced

It’s odd that 25% of sellers are cutting prices. OTOH, it’s not all that strange given the fact that housing demand is a record lows and excess, empty and defaulted inventory is in the tens of millions.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:10:47

“It’s odd that 25% of sellers are cutting prices.”

The folks cutting prices have doubtless figured out what is needed to get a buyer to make an offer. The rest of the sellers have the God-given right to keep their homes on the market forever at above-market prices where they will never sell.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 06:37:45

That pretty much explains why housing demand is at a 30 year low in Californica.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 07:08:17

‘The high-end housing market hasn’t been this entertaining to watch since the last upturn. Luxury homes are being bought for eye-popping prices with large amounts of cash, and apparently imagination is the only limit to amenities. Nowhere is this more apparent than in L.A.’s ultra-expensive celebrity-studded neighborhoods.’

‘Jenny from the (price chop) block’

‘Homeowners and their agents hate to see a listing become “tired” — lingering on the market without a taker. When that happens, however, a price adjustment and some sprucing up are often in order. Joining the club of rebooting sellers is singer-actress and former “American Idol” judge Jennifer Lopez, who has put her work-live estate in Hidden Hills back up for sale at a $2.5-million discount. Among the stellar features are her recording studio, a dance studio/gym and a 20-seat theater. Asking price: $14.5 million.’

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 07:21:04

Look who arrived…..

http://goo.gl/eJ9LVo

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:25:22

I used to be outspokenly critical of amenity-laden celebrity homes, but I’ve been told that our celebrity culture is such that often these individuals are prisoners in their own homes, lest every excursion be ruined by paparazzi and people seeking autographs, selfies, career advice, or a fight.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Sean
2015-09-29 11:30:51

Out of curiosity, can you mix in the metric which shows unsold homes taken off the market for the fall/winter? Two houses in my neighborhood had price cuts of $85,000 and $40,000 then magically taken off the market after school started. Not sold, not for sale, just gone from the MLS.

 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:04:08

“High yield has flourished in the years of low rates and easy Fed policy. ‘Everybody thinks of QE and easy monetary policy and the biggest beneficiary was the equity market. I would argue the biggest beneficiary of the easy monetary policy was the credit market,’ said Michael Contopoulos, head of high-yield strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

I asked my twelve-year old paperboy about this and he told me:

“The credit market supplied the borrowed money needed to push up equity prices and the pushed up equity prices created the wealth that was necessary to back the borrowing. So you cannot allow one market, either the credit market or the equity market, to decline without taking down the other market.”

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:16:44

My paperboy also told me that the prices that support the equity market are at this point based on illusions rather than based on fundamentals and these illusions are fueled by ever-increasing price gains and if the perception of these ever-increasing price gains shift to a perception of something other than ever-increasing price gains then the illusion that fuels the equity market will go poof, meaning it will vanish.

And vanishing illusions translate into vanishing prices and vanishing prices translate to vanishing equity - equity that is needed to back all that money that was borrowed in order to finance the illusions.

 
Comment by scdave
Comment by Puggs
2015-09-29 15:17:11

Sounds like warning bells that were going off in late 2005 into 2006…

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 05:12:52

“Because the bank thinks my neighbor is looking at me, saying, ‘Wait a minute, there’s something wrong with this…Why don’t I stop paying my mortgage…”

No Nick. The bank is still on life support from the Fed and has your shack on the books for more than it is worth. They don’t care what your neighbor is thinking about. They care about looking solvent.

Comment by Dale
2015-09-29 13:46:34

From Wikipedia:

Mark-to-market or fair value accounting refers to accounting for the “fair value” of an asset or liability based on the current market price, or for similar assets and liabilities, or based on another objectively assessed “fair” value. Fair value accounting has been a part of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in the United States since the early 1990s, and is now regarded as the “gold standard” in some circles.

On April 9, 2009, FASB issued an official update to FAS 157 that eases the mark-to-market rules when the market is unsteady or inactive. Early adopters were allowed to apply the ruling as of March 15, 2009, and the rest as of June 15, 2009. It was anticipated that these changes could significantly increase banks’ statements of earnings and allow them to defer reporting losses.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 15:00:55

The key phrase is “when the market is unsteady or inactive.”

Single family housing generally doesn’t qualify (and I don’t think ever did). They can’t pretend that there aren’t hundreds of trades in their respective markets by which to comp out the value of their REO.

Now, if they hold a derivative of a CDO-squared, where there are no trades and no bid, then they can use a model to determine a holding value for that particular piece of trash.

 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-09-29 05:24:02

“…..The merger values Colony at $1.5 billion, or about 50% of what it paid for its 18,000 homes and other assets, minus debt……..”

I have to eat some crow on this one. Ben pointed out 2 years ago the fundamentals didn’t work. He said they kept adding debt to pay dividends. I bought CLNY at $19 for the dividend, it looks like it was just a racket scheme. I sold at $22 a few months ago, but could otherwise be sitting with egg on my face today.

It was funny how the hedge fund reps started showing up at the auctions a few tears ago, with buying mandates making stupid bids, almost like their lives depended on buying houses at any price. Now we know what fools they were!

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:33:44

“It was funny how the hedge fund reps started showing up at the auctions a few tears ago, with buying mandates making stupid bids, almost like their lives depended on buying houses at any price. Now we know what fools they were!”

Buying houses “at any price” today makes the value of the houses you bought yesterday go up, so the incentive is to pay higher and higher prices.

Own a thousand houses and you need some equity increases? Bid up the price of the next house you buy and - presto! - the value of those thousand houses you already own will also go up.

Magic!

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-09-29 05:47:28

..magic….until you run out of pixie dust.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:54:19

“Pixie dust” = Other People’s Money

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 05:34:17

It was kind of deep pocketed Wall Street types to catch a falling knife so ordinary American families didn’t have to suffer through the loss of home equity wealth. Will the depreciated houses they bought eventually become available for end user purchase at affordable prices?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-09-29 10:06:36

Don’t worry about them…. when the stock tanks, all that money will be debited right back from the proles’ 401ks.

 
Comment by Bluto
2015-09-29 11:55:36

I’ve wondered about that myself, gave up on buying in 2012 after being shut out by 100% cash buyers several times over about a year…all the cash deals also meant that appraisals were not required in many cases and that was a big factor in inflating the echo bubble. If prices drop back to 2012 levels locally (down about 40%) I may try buying again but wonder if there will be a second wave of all cash flippers and speculators to compete with, that was VERY discouraging.

 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:39:32

These charts divide the stock market into nine segments. Up until a week or two ago the healthcare segment was performing the best of them all but then … something happened, biotech happened.

http://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=sector&v=410&o=name

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 05:45:50

“The best part is that it can be all yours for just $350,000. That’s right — this shack is listed for the price that you could practically buy a mansion for in other parts of the country.”

It’s a classic California fixer-upper. And someone will gladly snap it up and pour in the $150,000 in sweat equity needed to turn it into a $500,000 starter home, cause everyone in California needs a place to live in.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:29:33

Why $500,000? My wife and I watched a home improvement/real estate show last night, and we learned that $150,000 of improvements will lead to a $300,000 increase in property value.

 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2015-09-29 05:49:34

“Could a politician possibly set himself up any more for a political blunder than Harper just has? This is worse than Bernanke saying there was no housing bubble — Harper is actually cheering the Canadian housing bubble on.”

Let’s look at the other side of this for a moment:

The guy’s a politician, hence he needs votes, more votes than the other guy.

If he chooses to not cheer the housing market then the guy who does cheer the housing market gets the votes instead of him and hence he loses his cushy job. So, from his point of view, cheering the housing market is a no-brainer.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:14:31

Certainly Canadian voters appreciate politicians who openly acknowledge the financial brilliance of buying houses that only go up in value.

 
Comment by BearCat
2015-09-29 09:06:39

To be fair, US Presidents have the same idea: President Bush certainly didn’t want the bubble to pop, and President Obama has done his best to reflate it (and I hope the echo-bubble pops on Obama’s watch so he gets some of the blame he and his minions such as Yellen richly deserve).

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 05:59:47

‘It’s not over. It’s not at its peak where it was two or three years ago, but in many states, say, Florida and California, you still have a residue of foreclosures that are continuing to fill up that pipe and stuff the pipe so we can’t have the free flowing of markets.’”

With the foreclosure moratoriums in place, there are millions of excess, empty and defaulted houses in CA going back to 2006. With demand collapsing to 30 year lows in CA, it’s getting ugly for LoanOwners already.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-29 06:02:06

starting ?
‘I am starting to see signs of imbalances emerge in the form of high asset prices,

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-09-29 06:17:15

It’s CYA time when central bankers start making such silly statements. You can stick a fork in the SF bubble.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 06:24:12

Remember that it’s not a “bubble” in the media until after it pops.

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 07:14:16

“‘I am starting to see signs of imbalances emerge in the form of high asset prices,”

And it only took you 15 years to see them.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-29 06:16:47

japan- new Keynesland

whoops ,so are weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee donk

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:08:25

“The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco warned Monday of signs of financial market bubbles in the U.S., saying that the central bank would risk financial instability by keeping rates at zero for too long. ‘I am starting to see signs of imbalances emerge in the form of high asset prices, especially in real estate, and that trips the alert system,’ John Williams said at a speech in Los Angeles, according to text from his office.”
______________________________/

So that the institution can retain at least some claim to legitimacy when this all falls apart for the second time, there’s always one person trotted out to feign concern. There’s also at least one person whose job is to float trial balloons like negative interest rates.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 07:11:06

‘Manhattan’s luxury condo market nearly ground to a halt last week, as Yom Kippur and Pope Francis’ visit diverted buyers and sellers from business concerns. Only 10 new contracts at $4 million were signed, the lowest figure since the week of Dec. 30, 2014, when there were just nine.’

‘The low demand in recent weeks also seems to have cut into prices. The average asking price was $6.6 million. The median price was just $5.9 million. Both figures are a decline from the previous week.’

‘The average discount for the properties sold last week, 12 percent, reached the highest level in at least two years. A trend seems to be emerging.’

Stocks falling, luxury condos too. No interest rate hike required.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 07:19:27

‘China’s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index toward its steepest quarterly loss since 2008, as concern about the nation’s economy deepened ahead of the start of a week-long holiday this week.’

‘The Shanghai Composite Index slid 1.6 percent to 3,052.56 at 9:31 a.m. local time, extending losses in the last three months to 28 percent. The Shanghai gauge has fallen 41 percent since the June peak as leveraged investors fled the stock market amid concerns valuations weren’t justified amid a weakening economy. Data on Monday showed industrial profits dropping the most in at least four years.’

‘Is Glencore the mining sector’s Lehman?’

‘Experts are beginning to warn of the dire financial impact across the mining and metals space if Glencore, one of the world’s largest resource companies, is unable to control its skyrocketing debt load.’

‘A widely-circulated note from Investec on Monday pointed to a debt base well above peers and a lower-margin asset base, warning of a scenario in which earnings could collapse entirely as Glencore works purely to repay debt. That would eliminate all shareholder value, the brokerage warned.’

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:22:29

Yom Kippur and Pope Francis’ visit? Not the weather this time. Still too early to blame the Super Bowl.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-09-29 07:32:41

that leaves San Fran as the last one standing

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-29 07:12:22

30,184 properties found Los Angeles County, CA Homes for Sale & Real Estate

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles-County_CA

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles-County_CA/show-price-reduced

8,698 properties found Los Angeles County, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale

A full 30% of all sellers reduced prices.

Why?

Comment by salinasron
2015-09-29 08:39:16

“Why?”

Why not give us a ten year, year by year data chart with properties for sale vs population for LA-county so that you numbers have meaning.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-29 09:09:22

There is nothing more meaningful than 30% of all properties for sale undergoing price reductions.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 09:31:19

12,545 properties found Houston, TX Real Estate and Homes for Sale

4,059 properties found Houston, TX Price Reduced Homes for Sale

Expand that to 25 miles out and only new houses:

6,694 nearby properties found Houston, TX New Homes Construction for Sale

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Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:17:12

“The summer of 2008 saw panic across the globe. Given the Fed’s job to keep the economy stable, it all landed squarely on Bernanke’s desk. ‘If it was the worst in human history,’ asked O’Donnell, ‘why didn’t more experts like you see it coming?’”

“‘Well, we didn’t. We understood part of it. We saw that there were problems in the housing sector. We saw there were developing problems in sub-prime mortgages. What we didn’t see, what I think almost anybody didn’t see, was the vulnerability of the financial system to those factors.’
____________________________/

The Fed didn’t see that housing prices had no reasonable relationship to incomes? It didn’t see that the value of securitized debt obligations has a relationship to the borrower’s ability to repay? It didn’t see the potential impact of leverage?

It’s enough to make you question the value of formal economics education, because it seems to have rendered these experts incapable of making the simplest observations.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 07:44:28

‘This is worse than Bernanke saying there was no housing bubble’

Don’t forget “subprime is contained.”

This guy was telling us a few months ago that he couldn’t refinance his house. Now we learn Fannie Mae will let you count relatives incomes for loan approvals.

‘Fannie Mae recently unveiled new rules that allow more borrowers to qualify for a mortgage. The change is aimed at encouraging homeownership among creditworthy lower-income and minority homebuyers, Fannie says in a press release.’

‘In a departure from traditional lending standards, Fannie’s HomeReady mortgage rules mean that if your income isn’t enough to get a mortgage you also could count the salary of an employed child, a parent or another relative who lives with you but whose name is not on the mortgage loan.’

‘Parents and other relatives have been able to help their children buy a home in the past, but in different ways — by co-signing the mortgage, for example, or by giving them money to help with the down payment.’

“For the first time, income from a nonborrower household member can be considered to determine an applicable debt-to-income ratio for the loan, helping multigenerational and extended households qualify for an affordable mortgage,” the press release says. Qualified borrowers can get a HomeReady mortgages with down payments as small as 3 percent.

‘You also are allowed to count rental income from a boarder or someone renting an apartment attached to your home. Fannie did not say so, but, presumably, income from a nonrelative like a live-in partner to whom you are not married might also meet this standard.’

‘In another break from tradition, you also can include income from someone who doesn’t live in your household — a parent or a grown child, for instance — to qualify for a mortgage.’

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rules-put-mortgages-within-reach-154525847.html

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 07:45:52

These acts of desperation get louder and louder. And they speak volumes.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 08:46:23

Foreclosure is baked in. Elderly parents or grown children will probably not stay (alive) and pay rent for the next 30 years. Girlfriends? lol.

 
Comment by Puggs
2015-09-29 09:37:55

At his age he should have a paid for home.

Comment by inchbyinch
2015-09-29 10:37:08

Puggs
That was our goal. The 60th B-Day goal (husband) of no mortgage, and we made it within a couple years. Ins and Property Tax accruals of $550/mo. Granted, it’s just a modest one-story “cottage”, but that’s really all one needs.

KISS as you age.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 11:03:07

lying.through.her.teeth.the.whole.time.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-09-29 13:47:48

mafia
What is your problem? We own our home free and clear and that is our monthly liability. What’s yours as a renter for life? A-hole.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 13:51:24

Why lie?

 
Comment by Puggs
2015-09-29 14:00:21

Good for you! Debt is no way to enter retirement years.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-09-29 07:20:52

And two final points on the Fed: First, has Main Street been saved? Has he been on Main Street lately? And second, perhaps Bernanke doesn’t miss being Fed chair because, since his departure, he gets paid a quarter-million dollars per speech from the very people whose obscene wealth his institution took radical steps to preserve.

Comment by Bluto
2015-09-29 12:05:08

I’m not so sure QE was ever about saving Main Street….this passage from Oil!, an Upton Sinclair novel published nearly 90 years ago is illuminating…

Bunny had a talk with Mr. Irving, who told him that it was the Federal Reserve system at work; a device of the big Wall Street banks, a supposed-to-be government board, but really just a committee of bankers, who had the power to create unlimited new paper money in times of crisis. This money was turned over to the big banks, and in turn loaned by them to the big industries whose securities they held and must protect. So, whenever a panic came, the big fellows were saved, while the little fellows went to the wall.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-29 07:33:31

Petaluma, CA Housing Prices Dive 8% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/petaluma-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-09-29 08:01:27

‘No,’ he replied. ‘I really like being able to look in the newspaper, see a story about some kind of problem, and say, ‘Gee, I hope somebody does something about that!’”

Man o man - If I had not read the clip I would have thought this was the Bummer talking!!!!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 08:33:54

‘As an economics professor at Princeton, Bernanke studied the Depression’

This gets throw out often, like it means whatever Mr “Gee, I hope somebody does something about that!” can’t possibly be wrong. Note to CBS; we all “studied” the great depression in school. Maybe he should have looked more at Japan. Oh, that’s right, Japan is the model, and they just didn’t go far enough papering over their bubble debacles. Can’t you really say that about any policy that fails? That you just didn’t do enough of it?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-09-29 08:47:58

More Bernanke Bell?

 
Comment by rj chicago
2015-09-29 09:04:18

Ben -
“Japan is the model, and they just didn’t go far enough papering over their bubble debacles. Can’t you really say that about any policy that fails? That you just didn’t do enough of it?”

In other words - trying to rend blood out of turnip, kick a dead horse til it comes to life and other aphorisms that don’t come to my mind this morning.

Having read several large tomes on the failure of the nation and attending economy prior to WW1 - the rise of the central bankers, the resulting market collapses, the wars and on and on - I wonder why these guys even exist to begin with. Any thoughts on why we tolerate market manipulators rather than take ‘em to the wood shed holding torches and pitchforks waiting for the corn to pop?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 09:21:53

“I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people.” Reginald McKenna, as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924.’

It’s a power structure. For instance, do these guys really think Bernanke is worth $150k for a 15 minute speech? Or do they pay that to assure the next central banker he or she will be taken care of?

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Comment by inchbyinch
2015-09-29 10:41:45

Those distinguished speaker gigs do pay an astronomical amount of money. Much more lucrative then a real job, that actually adds value in the economy.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-29 12:51:30

Some of these conferences cost a LOT of money to attend.

The SALT conference in Las Vegas for instance (if I remember correctly) costs a couple of thousand dollars per attendee (with more than 1k attendees), and then you have the sponsors, who in some cases pay 10’s of thousands of dollars to have their name plastered everywhere.

In order to keep this revenue up, they need to get people interested in attending/sponsoring, and for that, you need big names.

And, since there is only one Bernanke, he can charge $150k and still have it economical for the conference.

I haven’t been to the SALT conference in a while, but one that I attended had Romney speak. Another had Bill Clinton. Based on how full the rooms were with those two guys, they were a big draw and probably worth the fee.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-09-29 13:08:58

We’re not impressed Rental_Fraud.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2015-09-29 13:58:58

Rental Watch
That’s why my former ICSC member firm stopped sending our division to the conference in Lost Wages. The cost vs. benefits didn’t pencil out, but I enjoyed the camaraderie. I am a huge Paco Underhill fan. I love his self proclaimed title “Retail Anthropologist”. Big bucks for speeches.

 
Comment by Puggs
2015-09-29 16:56:47

They’re paid an astronomical amount of money and yet still have a mortgage? Huh.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-09-29 09:03:27

Asia markets slammed, Nikkei drops 4%

From 8,500 in October 2012 to 20,700 in July 2015.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#{%22range%22:%225y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Nikkei 225 (^N225)
16,930.84 -714.27(-4.05%)

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-09-29 09:27:30

Salinas, CA Housing Prices Nosedive 23% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/salinas-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by doom
2015-09-30 02:31:33

“L.A.’s housing market, despite becoming more expensive and unaffordable, is not in a bubble.”

I’m far from Phi Beta anything folks, but it sounds like:

“the restaurant is expensive, the health dept. has tagged it several times, please visit it and spend your money?”

 
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