The Gorilla In The Great Room
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The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “The total sales volume of luxury homes sold (sales over $1M) in the Denver metro market in September was 60 percent higher than September of last year, according to LIV Sotheby’s International Realty. ‘The luxury market is growing - both in the number of $1M+ properties being offered and the number of sales’ said LIV Sotheby’s International Realty president, Scott Webber. ‘Inventory is at an all-time high of just under 900 properties currently on the market. Meanwhile the number of properties sold has dropped each month since the high in June. Buyers have more choice now than they did this summer, and now is a great time to capitalize on our rising market.’”
“Boulder County is also experiencing a significant growth in its luxury marke. September was a particularly slow month, however, with only 17 sales, down 50 percent from August (statistics pulled from IRES LLC). The average selling price in Boulder stood at $1.45M in September, up 7 percent from August, and down -14 percent year-over-year.”
The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “A major condominium development planned for the Village at Gulfstream Park apparently won’t happen anytime soon. The 27-story tower planned in one of the area’s hottest pockets of condo development has been shelved, even though more than 120 people had reserved units in the building. Keven Klopp, development services director for Hallandale Beach, said Stronach shelved the project because it faced parking issues. The death of an executive on the development team also was a major factor, said Peter Zalewski, principal of the CondoVultures.com consulting firm.”
“But Zalewski said Gulfstream Park’s Canadian-based parent company, The Stronach Group may decide to wait two or three years in south Broward’s white-hot condo market. ‘It’s hard to imagine that Gulfstream Park Tower could be successful in this cycle,’ he said.”
“In the past few years, South Florida developers have relied primarily on wealthy foreign investors to finance condo construction, but those investors are growing more conservative as currencies weaken worldwide. Howard Elfman, a broker specializing in luxury homes and international sales for Weichert Realtors in Fort Lauderdale, said he expects domestic buyers to play a larger role in the local condo market. ‘Before, it was ‘Build it and they will come,’ Elfman said. ‘Now the developers have to be more cautious and understand where their buyers are coming from.’”
The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “A creative marketing campaign centered on a voluntary auction with steeply discounted starting bids has been launched to generate interest in a small townhouse project. The 11-unit, two- and three-story Agave Condos hit the market in 2006 at prices ranging from about $375,000 to $450,000. None of the units sold and, after the housing market crashed, all were switched to rentals.”
“The entire property sold in 2012 to the current owner, a limited liability company associated with Granite Investment Group of Irvine, Calif. Already an upscale property – eight units have elevators – the new owner made more improvements and returned the units to for-sale condos. Two sold. The auction of the remaining nine is a way to dangle a pair of incentives for prospective buyers. The starting bids are running at 44 percent to 54 percent of the previous list prices, which were already marked down from the 2006 level. For example, the starting bid is $150,000 for a 1,850-square-foot unit previously listed at $319,900.”
“The auction strategy is a reflection of the comparatively slow rebound in Albuquerque’s housing market, Granite CEO Carey Levy told the Journal. ‘It’s unfair to paint a picture that this isn’t a viable property,’ he said. ‘This is a very viable property.’”
The Oklahoman. “If a million means a mansion, then mansions have been sprouting like oil rigs in Oklahoma County — at least through 2014. We’ll see what the gorilla in the great room has to say about it this year, since the oil patch, again, ain’t what it used to be. Put them all together and it would be a town the size of Cordell, or Drumright, or Bethel Acres — about 2,900 people. (That’s taking those 1,175 million-dollar homes and multiplying by the average Oklahoma County household size of 2.48 people.)”
“Imagine: Streets of gold in Cordell, Drumright and Bethel Acres! Actually, Edmond is the ‘winner’ if there is a race, with 381 million-dollar homes, followed by Nichols Hills with 380, then Oklahoma City with 360, Arcadia with 35, Jones with 15, Choctaw with two and two more out in the county, said Chief Deputy Assessor Larry Stein. Stein did point out that 380 million-dollar homes in 2-square-mile Nichols Hills comes to 190 per square mile.”
“‘Oklahoma property taxes are among the lowest in the nation, approximately 1 percent of the value,’ Stein said. ‘The owner of a million-dollar home pays approximately $10,000 a year in property taxes. That means all these homes would pay approximately $11,770,000 in property taxes.’”
The Advertiser in Louisiana. “Home sales tumbled in September in Lafayette Parish, a steep monthly decline from last September. The drop in sales not likely due to the availability of homes on the market. New listings in Lafayette Parish were up 36 percent, year over year, in September. New construction listings are up 17 percent. Bill Bacque, president of Van Eaton & Romero real estate, suggested some signs point to possible weakening in the market due to the continuing oil and gas slump. Despite boasting an economy that’s more diverse since the oil slump of the 1980s, the market continues to rely on oil and gas jobs for much of its health.”
KTAR News in Arizona. “There has been less action in the Maricopa County housing market as of late from out-of-state buyers. Less than 14 percent of all homes bought in the county in August were purchased from owners outside Arizona, nearly 3 percent lower than August 2014 and the lowest number since September 2008. In recent years, many of those buyers have been Canadians. But with a stronger U.S. dollar, homebuying has become more expensive for those north of the border.”
“Michael Orr with the WP Carey School of Business at Arizona State University said more Canadians are now selling their Valley homes. Orr said the rebounding Arizona housing market has also made it harder for investors. ‘Their objective is to buy homes at bargain prices,’ he said. ‘They can still do that, but it’s a lot harder work, so the volume goes down.”
“For those looking to buy in the Valley, Orr said more homes should be on the market in the next six to eight weeks.”
‘The luxury market is growing - both in the number of $1M+ properties being offered and the number of sales’ said LIV Sotheby’s International Realty president, Scott Webber. ‘Inventory is at an all-time high of just under 900 properties currently on the market. Meanwhile the number of properties sold has dropped each month since the high in June. Buyers have more choice now than they did this summer, and now is a great time to capitalize on our rising market.’
Only in Realtorville is it possible for the number of sales to grow during a period of steady monthly sales declines.
This is meaningful:
“‘Inventory is at an all-time high of just under 900 properties currently on the market.”
This could very well be seasonal:
“Meanwhile the number of properties sold has dropped each month since the high in June. ”
Of course it’s realtorspeak. Is one seasonally adjusted, and one not?
You can have year on year increases and all-time high sales for the month of August, while still having a monthly decline from July.
Denver, CO Housing Prices Fall 7% YoY; Inventory Balloons 99% On Cratering Housing Demand
http://www.movoto.com/denver-co/market-trends/#city=&time=1Y&metric=Inventory&type=0
when the next report comes out we’ll see the post labor day
tankage
I was going to say. The realtor’s comment is nonsensical. A growing market requires more buyers, not more buyer choices.
28,431 nearby properties found Tampa, FL Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Tampa_FL?ml=4
10,319 nearby properties found Tampa, FL Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Tampa_FL/show-price-reduced?ml=4
A full 36% of Tampa sellers reduced their price at least once
Same searches for Pittsburgh show 43% of the homes are reduced.
Houses are a spring/summer commodity, like bikinis and flip flops. In the fall it all goes into the bargain bin.
N VA now predicted up 3% by Zillow
was flat last month
por que ?
NoVa makes no sense to me. I mean really, would you buy this THING for $1.2 mil?
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/51754649_zpid/38.928066,-77.152509,38.918568,-77.173795_rect/15_zm/1_fr/?3col=true
OK, I admit… it’s a neat house. It’s even got a lap pool constructed such that Bill can show off his full monty to the neighbors. But I would have chosen nicer flooring for the kitchen.
Not sure I could live in it though. I give it six months before I go insane.
That’s a heluva $150k donkey crater.
I don’t need to buy a place with a pool to show the full Monty. I can do that where I rent.
‘I don’t need to buy a place with a pool to show the full Monty. I can do that where I rent.’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPQ3JECTSZg
I like that home for what it is, but those stairs are just silly.
29,702 nearby properties found Los Angeles, CA Real Estate and Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles_CA?ml=4
9,607 nearby properties found Los Angeles, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles_CA/show-price-reduced?ml=4
32% of all Los Angeles sellers reduced their price at least once
Realturds blow that off as, seller just got too greedy, now the listing prices are normal.
Remember…. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices. Nothing.
Hawthorne, CA Housing Prices Plunge 14% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/hawthorne-ca-90250/home-values/
Hey Lola - Cuba has really low prices! yippeee!
And even lower wages. So you see my friend…. it’s all relative. Prices are massively inflated in Cuba.
Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices.
What is this about “wages” now?
That’s right. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
You’re catching on.
Sure…..look what it’s done for WalMart. HA!
The largest most profitable retail outlet on the planet Jingle_Fraud.
Novato, CA Housing Prices Fall 12% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/novato-ca/market-trends/
$600 a month to live in a box:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/live-in-boxes-in-oakland-redefine-housing-squeeze.html
they will ban them for being an eyesore eventually. I would live in a tent in the woods before buying one of the overpriced shacks in the bay area.
Speaking of tents, this guy in Silicon Valley put a tent in his parents’ backyard on Airbnb. And according to him, he’s successfully rented it a few times:
http://tinyurl.com/nduekgl
“At first, he listed it for $20 a night, but there was so much demand that Potter decided to increase the price to $46.
So far, Potter has had three people stay in the tent, usually for one- or two-night stints. And he has about 20-30 people who have requested to stay there, with a handful of people asking to stay for a month or longer.”
What if someone slipped and fell? Would homeowners insurance exclude a claim because it was commercial?
ahaaa….. once again fear of litigation deciding factor…
Attorneys destroyed the USA.
I’m just pointing out how airbnb and all those supposedly smart new economy services are based on fraud. Everyone lies and then someone gets hurt.
Everyone lies and then someone gets hurt.
Guys poker night on BlueSky’s boat after someone goes #2 in the head?
Reminds me of those notorious cage homes in Hong Kong:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/10/28/cage.homes/
You would think that an economy which is growing 7.5% /year
could afford to move these people to the ghost cities in the sticks, giving them plows and seeds if they have to… at least until the middle class moves in.
The Army had one of SILs living in a container in Iraq.
“CHU means Containerized Housing Unit (pronounced “choo”) and is the usual housing for many of our Iraq deployed soldiers.”
http://armymomstrong.com/chuville-home-sweet-home-for-soldiers-in-iraq/
Looks a lot better than the Swamp from Mash. Hawkeyes and BJ would love it.
Home sweet home:
https://matttoomb.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/trailerpkboys_sxsw.jpg
‘Gulfstream Park Tower may need more time to overcome a negative perception from buyers and real estate brokers, Zalewski said. Buyers agreed to make deposits of at least 35 percent based on the various stages of construction, according to Zalewski, citing Stronach’s marketing materials. Most buyers probably didn’t put down that much because construction never started, though it’s unclear whether the money they did pay was returned, Zalewski said.’
‘Some preconstruction contracts allow developers to keep deposits for an extended period, even if the projects are postponed or fall behind schedule.’
One could make a fine living investing those deposits in Treasuries… and “postponing” the projects whenever Treasuries are yielding well. They ought to be investigated for running an underground bank.
Looks like falling emerging market currencies are really biting. I had my in-laws in town recently, and when I asked them about the situation in Colombia, their first comment had to do with the exchange rate.
The exchange rate vs. the USD is quoted on the front page of Mexico City newspapers. With the Mexican peso’s steady slide vs. Uncle Buck I’m certain that middle and upper class Mexicans are hoarding USDs.
‘Imagine: Streets of gold in Cordell, Drumright and Bethel Acres! Actually, Edmond is the ‘winner’ if there is a race, with 381 million-dollar homes, followed by Nichols Hills with 380, then Oklahoma City with 360, Arcadia with 35, Jones with 15, Choctaw with two and two more out in the county, said Chief Deputy Assessor Larry Stein. Stein did point out that 380 million-dollar homes in 2-square-mile Nichols Hills comes to 190 per square mile’
Yesterday I saw gasoline at $2.05. In 1985, I remember paying $.75 a gallon. I ran this through an inflation calculator:
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
That 75 cents is $1.66 today.
at cheap stations here it is like 2.33 in n. ca right now.People line up at the big box stores to save 2 cents on a gallon. It is quite amusing to watch these folks idle their cars for 15 minutes to save 20 cents.Its like the starbucks line 10 cars deep and no one is inside.
I guess the housing bubble in the bay area is worse than last time. People sell in the bay area and come to sacramento and pay cash. Those stock buybacks are working wonders for stock options.
Back in 1985, the photos in my grade-school textbooks showed millions of Chinese getting around on bicycles. With the demand of today, of course the price of gas is going to out-pace inflation.
We don’t mind seeing the price of gas now outrun deflation.
I had to eat some crow on the grocery store prices.
On HBB I said several times “have you ever seen a grocery store lower prices? Stores will just keep the same prices and pocket the cash.” Then, a few months later, suddenly all the grocery stores are advertising NEW! Lower Prices! on several things. And they were genuinely lower prices on identical items, not playing games with the sizes.
But where is the deflation in rent? Not seeing it. And my salary isn’t going down…
You don’t want to see it Donk. But they’re there and a fraction of your cost.
No “pent-up demand” happening here:
“Meager wage growth, crushing levels of student debt … Millennials’ cynicism towards home ownership”
http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-is-worse-than-you-think-2015-10
‘Retirement’ is going to be brutal for baby boomers:
“four in 10 baby boomers have nothing saved for retirement, and 37% of those who do have savings have less than $100,000 put away”
http://www.businessinsider.com/financial-advisor-insights-october-13-2015-2015-10
A nation of broke @ss loosers
I saw something yesterday about millenials needing to pull like 237,000.00 a year from retirement accounts after inflation catches up.
Most people dont have jack sh@t saved for retirement. I bet at least 60 -70% of people are living off SS checks right now and it will get worse.
no problem Hungary(2012) and other countries are confiscating private 401k etc
listen to hitlery closely
got ammo?
FWIW, people’s retirements have been “confiscated” and forcefully invested in Treasuries for decades in the USA.
It’s called Social Security.
As for the Hungarian situation:
http://budapestbeacon.com/public-policy/orban-government-squanders-private-retirement-savings-confiscated-in-2011/28294
So they weren’t confiscated at gun point, people handed them over voluntarily so that they would still receive the local equivalent of Social Security. Apparently they believe (probably mistakenly) that Hungarian SS will make good on its promises.
helps show why forefingers are buying homes here
spend it or lose it
“less than $100,000 put away”
The other side of this is preparation. Living habits are hard to change quickly. For the spendthrift, retirement on a budget isn’t a gentle transition.
….. ooooooph.
Then they don’t retire, unless forced to. What age are people kicked out most places?
the average gov worker in my hood can retire at age 57
no sweat
instead of ejacking into the atmosphere here you might want to contact elected officials
the average gov worker in my hood can retire at age 57
You need to move to a new hood.
Got TABOR?
State and local? Becuase I don’t think that is federal unless law enforcement.
How is that ejacking when the discussion is about when people can retire? You’re bringing up govt workers and voluntary retirement. I’m more curious about private sector bootings.
For the feds, it 57. But that’s the bare minimum age, you need at least 10 years work, and your payment is reduced by 5% for each year under 62. That’s for FERS, which started in the mid 80’s.
https://www.opm.gov/retirement-services/fers-information/eligibility/
Pre 1980’s, workers were under CSRS, a much more generous system. There are still quite a few left. So if you hear of extra-generous retirements, it’s probably the old CSRS system.
On a side note, you know how NYC DJ doesn’t like double dipping? Yeah, the feds don’t like it either. If I quit today, I will have a (very small) pension, but I won’t collect it until age 62.
Vrs/ in va got a free ride from 1983? Till 2011
You should keep tabs on your county ,they’ll tax you up the booty so the gov workers get paid for
If they are smart they will leave the USA and live off that $1400 a month in Ecuador.
Ever been to the tropics?
Quito is not the tropics.
The global middle class is in a state of decay:
http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-global-wealth-report-decline-global-middle-class-wealth-2015-10
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
The Mexodus has slowed, to the point where more Asians are arriving the USA. Despite the runaway crime, Mexico’s economy has improved enough to slow the Mexodus.
Mexico’s economy has improved enough to slow the Mexodus.
There are very early signs that NAFTA may actually have some positive aspects to it, including the reduction in illegal immigration you mention because there are more jobs in Mexico now. There is also an emerging small manufacturing industry in SoCal that makes stuff, ships it to Mexico for final assembly, and the finished product is reimported back into SoCal.
There is also an emerging small manufacturing industry in SoCal that makes stuff, ships it to Mexico for final assembly, and the finished product is reimported back into SoCal ??
Likely with a made in USA label on it….
Those benefits of NAFTA are probably outweighed by the drawbacks. When NAFTA went into effect, many small farms in Mexico had to complete with giant agribusinesses in the American Midwest. This was one of the sources of poverty that caused the migration northwards.
A neighbor of mine predicted a decline in the Mexodus a few years ago. He read somewhere that Mexcian parents were no longer having lots of kids and that that would eventually reduce the amount of illegal immigration.
Maquiladoras. Given their presence, it’s surprising that so many people walk around them to get into the US.
Maquiladoras. Given their presence, it’s surprising that so many people walk around them to get into the US.
I suppose that with wages rising in China that the maquiladoras can now pay more and remain competitive.
News flash, guys . . .
Some of the maquiladora plants have long since been shut down since there is now cheaper labor in Asia or South America. And the former workers at those plants are now even worse off than before any of those plants were ever there.
Back in the 1990s, my employer used to buy wiring harnesses that were assembled south of the border, but by about 10 years ago those plants were closed and production was moved to other places (Philippines and Brazil, IIRC; not sure where they are made today).
The $18.1 trillion gorilla in the room:
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/256848-debt-limit-anxiety-is-running-high
No word on how to pay for the multi-front war in Syria, Iraq, Iran, because hypocrisy
hilaery will make you pay their loans
Only if Dems can recapture both houses, which is very unlikely.
Just make up laws you wished you had.
And ignore laws you don’t like.
obama has shown us the way.
Only if Dems can recapture both houses, which is very unlikely ??
But gridlock does not work either….We are running on emergency fuel…Sooner or later we hit a wall…
No one has the guts to do the right thing. This was readily apparent with Simpson Bowles (a well thought out series of reforms) went nowhere.
We will need to hit the wall to get action.
We will need to hit the wall to get action ??
Thats what I am afraid of….
Our office is mixed politically. Even some of the more well-off folks voted for Obama (the first time only–you make that mistake only once).
When Simpson Bowles came out, those well-off on both sides of the aisle in our office thought it should be passed immediately, understanding that it probably would cost more in taxes (higher cap gains rates, fewer deductions, etc.). However, slowing down before we hit the wall is critical to the country, and the plan balanced various types of reform (something for everyone to dislike).
However, as usual, politics got in the way of good policy. And instead of putting our foot on the brake gently, we continue to careen toward that wall.
No one has the guts to do the right thing. This was readily apparent with Simpson Bowles (a well thought out series of reforms) went nowhere.
The Simpson Bowles commission itself didn’t approve the proposals.
The plan that was voted on took away the insurance deduction for corporations but didn’t assume that any more people would be dumped onto the ACA. For that reason, Paul Ryan voted against it.
He had hoped that the administration would pick up the torch and work through adjustments to the plan so that the math held together.
Instead, the politics were played with our future instead of sharpening the pencil and getting the math right.
After all, 11 of 18 members voted for the plan–more than 60%, including all three Republican Senators and Alan Simpson. In most cases, such level of support would pass laws.
It had promise, yet it was ignored.
It had promise, yet it was ignored ?? we continue to careen toward that wall ??
Yes…The question is are we going to run out of road before action is taken…Left, middle & right….Everyone knows we are on a unsustainable path…We nee fiscal re-investment in this country so we can get many back into good paying jobs…We also need the reform that Simpson/Boles will give us…
I have always felt that nothing was going to happen until after the 2016 election…Does not matter who wins we IMO are going to get some real serious reform…We don’t have a choice..
If the Rep’s win, because the house & senate are Repub controlled we may see a harsher reform for some…If the dem’s win, I think it will be a bit more middle of the road…
Either way, reform is coming…Bye Bye 500k tax free….Bye Bye local property tax deduction….Bye Bye (or severely curtailed) MID…Possibly bye bye Tax Deferred Exchanges although IPX is lobbying hard that they would actually lose revenue by eliminating Sec.1031…
It will be a new way of doing business in 2018 for sure….
“If the Rep’s win, because the house & senate are Repub controlled we may see a harsher reform for some…If the dem’s win, I think it will be a bit more middle of the road…”
I saw S/B as middle of the road.
You seem to forget that Paul Ryan didn’t vote for S/B because the math didn’t add up, and all three Republican Senators were in favor.
So, from the House/Senate, Republicans were split 3 to 3, with Ryan’s objection known.
Democrats only had 2 members of the House/Senate voting for, and 4 voting against.
In other words, Republicans are more likely to vote for something like S/B. Democrats will be farther left than the S/B plan.
“I have always felt that nothing was going to happen until after the 2016 election”
That’s what they said in 2010, 2012, etc.
I have very little faith that anything will get done until the US’s credit is seriously questioned…and it took Japan 200% of GDP in debt to get there.
End NSA spying? That sounds like “smaller government” and “less regulations” to me. Big government Republicans and big government Hillary love spying on US citizens, because hypocrites:
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/256865-sanders-would-absolutely-end-nsa-spying
Meanwhile, Spain remains “unfixed” so the Eurozone financial crisis could rear its ugly head again any day now.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/13/six-inconvenient-truths-about-spains-recovery/
That was well written, but by far the bigger problem in the near term will be Catalan separatism.
the bigger problem in the near term will be Catalan separatism
That could trigger a chain reaction throughout Europe.
Will America will begin bombing Spain as we did with Kosovo/Serbia and FSA/ISIS/Syria or supply weapons to Spain as we did in the Ukraine?
Very confusing to our next step.
I don’t believe the U.S. will bomb Spain, but I do believe NATO-affiliated soldiers, including U.S. troops, will be deployed somewhere in Europe in a “peacekeeping” capacity in the next ten years. And not to counter Russia, either. The deployment will be to protect the interests of Western banks, which are vulnerable to democracy. I actually thought that might happen in Greece, until Syriza caved so completely.
or supply weapons to Spain as we did in the Ukraine?
For starters, Spain, unlike the Ukraine, is a NATO ally and we have bases there and are probably already supplying weapons to Spain.
What would be gained by bombing Spain? Or did you mean bombing Catalunya? Barcelona doesn’t want to take over Spain, they just want to go their own way.
Barcelona doesn’t want to take over Spain, they just want to go their own way.
So did eastern Ukraine…
So did eastern Ukraine…
But they were running to Putin.
I strongly suspect that Catalunya won’t be bombed if they vote leave Spain.
Maybe the government in Madrid would send in the army. If they chose to do that, they probably wouldn’t American help. Of course, if the Catalans pulled a Castro and started nationalizing American assets, it would be a different matter altogether.
That could trigger a chain reaction throughout Europe ??
Yep…
I’m still moderately surprised at the Scotland vote last year. I have a Scottish acquaintance who told me a month after the outcome that he already regretted his vote for continued union.
The map of the globe might look radically different, within our lifetimes. Of course, it might also stay the same. But I feel that, in the long term, change always is a stronger bet than stasis. Communist countries broke apart; why can’t capitalist ones? And globalization, especially regarding finance and trade, is not guaranteed to continue at all.
I’m still moderately surprised at the Scotland vote last year.
Why are you surprised about that vote?
Of course, if the Catalans pulled a Castro and started nationalizing American assets, it would be a different matter altogether.
Not likely, they know they’ll need foreign investment to get off the ground once they become independent. Also, I wonder, would they automatically be part of the EU, or would the have to apply for membership?
This article, written pre-referendum, lays it out. Independence would be a way for people to say that they didn’t like the kind of country the UK had become, and that they felt they could do better, particularly if they were self-sufficient in energy.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/scotland-a-referendum-on-inequality/380405/
I think that an EU bureaucrat stated during the Scottish vote that they would have to apply for membership as a new country. If that had come to pass, it’s possible that Spain would vote against Scottish membership to send a signal to Catalonia. The EU is a club made of national governments. That’s how The Economist would explain it.
I think that an EU bureaucrat stated during the Scottish vote that they would have to apply for membership as a new country.
I imagine that other “punishments” would have been in store. Perhaps a Scottish passport alone wouldn’t have been good enough to travel to most countries, a (hard to get) visa might be required. There would be no trade deals with Scotland. Perhaps the Scottish Pound would be undervalued, etc.
San Francisco, CA Housing Demand Falls 12% YoY; Down 23% Since 2013
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Once again;
Why pay more than construction costs ($55/sq ft for lot, labor, materials and profit) for a run down 20 year old house?
Crony capitalist exemplar Hillary Clinton claims she told Wall Street to “cut it out,” so they promptly ceased their fraud and swindles.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-becomes-a-lightning-rod-in-democratic-debate-2015-10-13
At least one candidate gets it.
———–
Trump: Economic bubble about to burst
The Hill | October 14, 2015 | Kevin Cirilli and Bob Cusack
NEW YORK — GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump warned The Hill in an exclusive interview of a looming economic recession, arguing that the stock market has already entered into another bubble.
He also slammed the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law as a “disaster” that has stifled economic growth.
“It’s terrible,” he said in an interview with The Hill, saying that he would “absolutely” repeal it.
“Under Dodd-Frank, the regulators are running the banks,” Trump said. “The bankers are petrified of the regulators. And the problem is that the banks aren’t loaning money to people who will create jobs.”
Democrats have vehemently defended Dodd-Frank, claiming it strengthened regulators’ ability to go after Wall Street and financial institutions in hopes of preventing an economic collapse. Republicans say it went too far and punished small businesses.
“We have Dodd-Frank and we’re in a bubble right now anyway,” Trump said, alluding to social media companies that he says have initial public offerings worth “billions” but “haven’t even made 10 cents.”
Trump also accused Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen of keeping interest rates low in order to shield Obama from having to leave office during a recession.
“She’s keeping the economy going, barely,” Trump said. “The reason they’re keeping the interest rate down is Obama doesn’t want to have a recession-slash-depression during his administration.”
Federal Reserve policymakers are expected in the coming months to raise the interest rate, which has remained at zero percent since the 2008 crisis in an effort to stifle economic growth.
“You know who gets hurt the most? People who practice the American dream and did what should have been the right way — the people that went through 40 years of their life and saved a hundred dollars every week [in the bank],” Trump said.
He paused, shaking his head before adding: “They worked all their lives to save and now what happens is they’re being forced into an inflated stock market and at some point they’ll get wiped out.”
I don’t trust that guy, but man you gotta love him driving these things in the news.
He is a huckster and disgusts me. But it is entertaining to watch him say things, even for self-aggrandizing purposes, that establishment politicians in both major parties are too frightened to say, maybe because then the money from their owners would be cut off.
Trump has no real life solutions, just a carnival barker.
You cant, build a wall, deport 11k a day and go to war with Iraq (again) all while cutting interest rates. No, he does not “get it.”
correction: ” all while cutting taxes”
The Donald lives in your empty skull…. rent free.
Lola! you did it again.
From your skull right to the White House.
Democrats have vehemently defended Dodd-Frank, claiming it strengthened regulators’ ability to go after Wall Street and financial institutions in hopes of preventing an economic collapse.
I love the doubletalk.
If Dodd Frank is so great, then why are Hillary and Bernie talking about cracking down on Wall Street? Didn’t Dodd Frank already take care of that?
Dodd Frank is an ineffective abomination of a law.
Dodd Frank is an ineffective abomination of a law ??
Yep…Knee-jerk reaction law…
Yet due to politics, the Democrats can’t admit that fact and try again. So we are left with a large ineffectual law that favors large enterprise, and new calls for further regulation, which will make it even better for large enterprise.
And those on the left wonder why the rich keep getting richer…baffling.
Nearly all of the top 10 of ALL TIME POLITICAL DONORS are unions.
And they give 99-1 to democrats
Any questions?
——–
Cops Retiring in Their 40s While Pension Systems Break Cities’ Backs
Michigan Capitol Confidential | 10/12/2015 | Tom Gantert
A husband and wife who were both Ann Arbor police officers retired within a year of each other. The husband, a sergeant, retired in 2009 at age 46. His wife, whose job title was telecommunicator, started collecting pension checks in 2010 at age 51.
Since 2009, the city of Ann Arbor has seen 43 individuals age 51 or younger retire and begin collecting police pensions.
The problem for the city and its taxpayers is that Ann Arbor’s pension system is underfunded and its costs are skyrocketing. The city paid $2.9 million to fund employees’ pensions in 2006. By 2014, the figure had nearly quadrupled to $11.2 million. And still, the pension system is just 83 percent funded, meaning for every dollar the city has promised its retirees, it has only 83 cents set aside. In 2014, the system was underfunded by $89.6 million.
Police officers who retire early often go on to work in other law enforcement jobs for a different employer. For example, Ann Arbor Police Chief John Seto retired July 31, 2015, at the age of 48. One month later, the University of Michigan named Seto as its new director of Housing Security and Safety Services, the Ann Arbor News reported. Seto earned $130,491 as the police chief and will make $113,000 in his new position — plus his monthly pension checks from the city of Ann Arbor.
“The record shows defined benefit pensions are just breaking the backs of taxpayers and city budgets,” Drolet said. “Cities make pension promises they can’t afford and their current leaders turn their heads.”
Got TABOR? We do.
All it will take is one unelected federal judge to over turn it.
They did it for state laws, amendments and state constitutions.
It will be “for the children” and to make things fair.
obama has shown us the way.
You keep believing that. Now get back to work! There’s a cop with a six figure retirement you need to fund!
Cops Retiring in Their 40s While Pension Systems Break Cities’ Backs
I agree with you on this 2banana. It is an absurd situation that taxpayers have to pay for public employees to retire in their 40’s. When the pension money runs out, the courts better side with the taxpayers.
(Of course we agree on most things anyway.)
Already happened with GM.
obama threw away 200 years of contract law and billions of dollars of taxpayer money to keep the UAW and their pensions happy.
If that was true, you would think that someone would gone to court. Presumably there must have been GM or Chrysler bondholders who could have gotten together and funded a lawsuit.
When the pension money runs out ??
Its already run out…Most government pension programs are underfunded aren’t they ?? Some so severe that you can only conclude that it will ultimately cripple the economy of those regions due to tax increases across the board…Illinois comes to mind but I am sure both big & small there are many others…
Its already run out…Most government pension programs are underfunded aren’t they ?
Technically, as long as they have funds, the money hasn’t “run out”, though it will eventually.
they retire, then get hired back as consultants.
and no one does anything about it for the last 40 yrs.
In fact, they usually get a raise their last year to bump up the pension. they are all in the same club. I have seen it first hand.
Family member retired from police work. Older than those ages. Pretty much wrecked by the time of retirement. Drunk people punching you, kicking you, etc. And dealing with society in general.
in fxco hardly any crime 1/3 national rate
mostly warn down driving a crown vic?
not
I moved to Northern Virginia a year and a half ago. Moved here from the Norfolk-Virginia Beach region.
I moved to Northern Virginia a year and a half ago to chase employment, not from the area originally.
I’m in 22151 s of central soviet
I’m in 22151 s of central soviet
So why haven’t you left for Mississippi or some other Shangri-la in the South? The isn’t some cushy job holding you back, is there?
You see, a long time ago I got fed up with living in high cost California … so I left.
I left the beach in CA in early 2000 too. came back. Will leave again for the Mtns. But I have the golden rental right now.
Pretty much wrecked by the time of retirement ??
I would venture that the divorce rate and substance abuse rate is pretty high in that line of work…
Meanwhile in the utopia called ILLANNOY……
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-14/illinois-delay-pension-payments-amid-budget-woes
Hi, rj, thanks for posting. Just saw that and wanted to review this thread before I double posted the link.
Well, there you have it. Let the games begin. Methinks that Illinois will not be the only government entity to do this. Once that stuff starts happening, it can set up a sort of cascade effect.
Well, somebody had to go first, I guess. Stay safe and keep yer powder dry.
There was time when public unions were not the largest ALL TIME DONORS of the political process and bankrupted their cites/counties/states…
—————
Why the public dislikes state workers
Sacramento Bee | October 13, 2015 | Jon Ortiz
And this: Public disdain for public employees.
Reports about waste, employee misdeeds and the usual detritus that goes with running any large organization, further stain government’s lackluster image, Citrin said, while pay and pensions “lead a lot of people to think that public employees have a good deal.”
The distinction, justified or not, is so significant that a union-commissioned polling firm two years ago found the most powerful phrase to defeat a pension-rollback ballot proposal is to say it is “eliminating police, firefighters’ and other public employees’ vested benefits.”
Government work “used to be considered honorable,” one of Friday’s lunch bunch wistfully recalled.
That was when government was building roads, universities and dams at a torrid pace, Citrin noted. The public good was easy to see.
“Those days,” Citrin said, “are over.”
So conservatives think
… unlimited contributions by corporations (Citizens United) is GOOD
… unlimited contributions by unions are BAD
Okay. Got it.
Okay. Got it.
Unions.
Tax free entities.
Are allowed to force people to join their organization as a CONDITION of employment and then take their “dues” before the employee ever sees their paycheck.
Are allowed to use violence, extortion and intimidation as a legitimate negotiating” tool.
Gives 99% to democrats (where corporations are about 50/50)
Got it?
You would screaming mad if the condition was reversed.
You would screaming mad if the condition was reversed.
But the conditions are reversed.
A few wealthy families provide most cash for presidential race
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/10/10/from-families-half-cash-for-race/moOjS3imu6ipZanKz73OxM/story.html
….Just 158 families, along with companies they own or control, contributed $176 million in the first phase of the campaign, according to a New York Times investigation.
The 158 families each contributed $250,000 or more in the campaign through June 30, according to the most recent available Federal Election Commission filings and other data, while an additional 200 families gave more than $100,000. Together, the two groups contributed well over half the money in the presidential election — the vast majority of it supporting Republicans.
…regardless of industry, the families investing the most in presidential politics overwhelmingly lean right, contributing tens of millions of dollars to support Republican candidates who have pledged to pare regulations; cut taxes on income, capital gains, and inheritances; and shrink entitlement programs
I am confused…. do unions try to protect the worker or the shareholder? Should workers have the right and freedom to unionize?
stop infringing on my rights
Workers should have the right to unionize.
They should also have the right to NOT join a union if they choose.
Employers and employment agencies must not treat you unfairly because you decide to join, decide to leave, refuse to leave or refuse to join a trade union. If they do, you may be able to make a complaint to an industrial tribunal.
So, why the opposition to “right to work” laws? Wouldn’t such laws be unnecessary if what you say is true?
Sheeple are morons. They cry about everything.
Will it be another day of DebtDonkeyMeltdowns and fits of CommunistCraterRage?
And tales of hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in fantasies while living in cardboard boxes and posting from the public library.
FBVictims and Whereismybailout?
Ask Paulson.
Quick debate impressions:
Hillary: it hurts me to say this but she did well. Polished, poised, articulate, firm. She did wither under fire from O’Malley and Sanders for her vague answers on regulating big banks, and tried to change the subject.
Sanders: while he offers a very strong and unambiguous case for the middle class getting the shaft and for reigning in the oligarchy, the problem is his style. He’s always in angry stemwinder mode, which is fine for a stump speech, but he needs to tone in down in a debate and appear more human.
O’Malley: did better than expected, might get a little bump in the polls.
Webb: stiff and whined about equal time too much. Made an error and said that Putin entered Syria because of the Iran nuke deal, and then made a bizarre reference to killing a soldier in ‘Nam.
Chafee: did not belong on the stage. Weak and embarrassing answer on why he voted to repeal Glass-Steagal.
Best gaffe: Hillary on why she’s best for regulating Wall Street, said that when she was a senator in N.Y. she “represented Wall Street.” Yes, Hillary, you did and you still do…
Juxtaposing the GOP debate vs the DEM debate. wow! ONE IS A CIRCUS, ONE IS A RALLY.
After watching the GOP debate people are depressed and discouraged. After watching the DEM debate you realize, life is good.
Meanwhile Trump live tweets insults…wtf kinda person trying to be POTUS does that?
After watching the GOP debate people are depressed and discouraged
Here’s a good (but concerning) take on it from a conservative.
“…….Over the past 30 years, or at least since Rush Limbaugh came on the scene, the Republican rhetorical tone has grown ever more bombastic, hyperbolic and imbalanced. Public figures are prisoners of their own prose styles, and Republicans from Newt Gingrich through Ben Carson have become addicted to a crisis mentality. Civilization was always on the brink of collapse. Every setback, like the passage of Obamacare, became the ruination of the republic. Comparisons to Nazi Germany became a staple…”
The Republicans’ Incompetence Caucus
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/opinion/the-republicans-incompetence-caucus.html?mabReward=A4&moduleDetail=recommendations-1&action=click&contentCollection=Europe®ion=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&src=recg&pgtype=article
Yep….Its anger, hate and in many cases bigotry with some downright racism…And its just getting worse…Kasich is the only one with a legitimate shot IMO..
I haven’t decided if I’m going to vote or who for. It’s not going to be the guy or gal who runs on “the other party is evil and bad!” Again, who should I vote FOR? And why? Right now there are candidates in both parties trying out ideas that could make big changes. That’s what I see as needed. Tinkering with the tax code isn’t going to do much.
This military thing we’re on is going to break us and all the while it puts a bigger target on our backs. This globalization thing is going to break us and a lot of others. It’s a race to the bottom.
I’m not trying to be negative or doom and gloom. But I worked in foreclosures a bunch. I saw their letters, the acts of anger, frustration, poverty even. I can see people aren’t making as much as they should or able to stay out of debt like I was able to when I was young. I have a hard time watching TV because no matter what channel it is, it’s propaganda and the word “threat” every ten seconds. I’m not satisfied with this state of affairs.
I’m going to have some interesting posts this weekend on bubbles, past and future. How we got here, what do we do next by a couple of excellent writers/economists. The other thing I see as very important; we have to get off this bubble roller coaster.
I think I’m in the same boat. As of right now, I haven’t seen anyone that I want to vote FOR.
I know I’ve been posting a lot on taxes and tax reform. However, my main beef with taxes is that they are too complicated. I would love to know what I owe without needing to pay someone to do my taxes, or spend 40+ hours wading through tax code to do my own.
From a fiscal standpoint, I would prefer to have some logic in determining what government we need, and then figuring out how to pay for it. However, what we get is a lot of public discussion about a tiny, insignificant corner of the tax code that would raise revenues by <0.2%, and not the massive military (that is too big) that represents a number 300x as large, or abuses representing numbers 50x as large in existing programs, or giant loopholes used by giant corporations used to legally avoid taxes in amounts hundreds of times larger.
We need simplification of tax code (and removal of loopholes), a careful review of what government we actually have, and right-sizing revenues to pay for the government that we actually need.
And I’ve yet to hear anyone with a reasonable plan to tackle all this.
Attorneys are destroying the USA.
Kasich is the only one with a legitimate shot IMO..
I agree. Kasich is the only one who could beat the Dem next year. (Because he’s rational.)
If either the House and Senate went Dem, I don’t think he’d make a bad president. I don’t know where he stands on wars though.
Ben Jones: Well you lost me now–when you say things like you don’t know if you’re going to vote, well that’s just juvenile. America is getting exactly what its people are asking for starting with a government that is elected by a minority of voters (if most eligible voters don’t vote or evan register to vote, what do you expect to happen?).
Spoiled, indifferent and crying in their beers over really bad decisions based on greed and the lack of ethics. That describes Americans in the post-WW II era. See you all later.
And don’t the door hit your ass!
Look, I’ve volunteered for politicians for years of my life. You name it I’ve done it. Signs, flyers, door to door, petitions, rallies, ballot judge more than once. In 2012 I was a delegate at the state convention to pick the presidential nominee among other things. In about 10 minutes the chair got up and said, “we’re here to nominate Romney.” A lot of us said, excuse us but that’s what we all came to vote on. We never got that vote, even after 14 hours and Romney was Arizona’s nominee.
It’s worse now. They changed the rules to make any grass-roots movement even easier to squash. Having volunteered in various political campaigns for around 30 years, I feel comfortable saying we have a less democratic process now than I’ve seen. Look at the money it takes to run.
I usually will make at least a protest vote for the presidential spot. Most people in the US don’t vote at all and there must be a reason. For instance; Arizonans probably are against illegal immigration right? Yet we have two senators that were on the gang of four pushing amnesty. And we can’t get rid of them. They are there for life. Doesn’t sound right, does it?
gang of eight, not four
Maybe it is still too early for a hero, and reform. The majority are still getting by in comfort, drenched in barely serviceable debt and enjoying every lie broadcast on the tube. I wonder what can turn this corrupt system upside down, what that will look like.
The best protest vote is for someone who has a chance. Someone who the establishment is working overtime to stop, that is either Trump or Sanders.
Either of these upset the applecart.
‘Maybe it is still too early for a hero, and reform. The majority are still getting by in comfort, drenched in barely serviceable debt and enjoying every lie broadcast on the tube’
‘The best protest vote is for someone who has a chance.’
Well said.
Albuquerque - I cant find a better value. Sure some areas have crime, but the weather is pretty good and homes $115 per sq ft. Lots of elbow room and outdoor activities. Only whites, Hispanics and Indians.
Albuquerque - I cant find a better value.
Yer damn right Albuquerque is a good value. Let’s cook.
OK. Move to Charming, CA and get a big knife with a sheath.
I like ABQ. affordable, fair weather, great airport, skiing and fishing nearby, great food.
JK, I was making a reference to Breaking Bad, which took place in ABQ.
I gotcha, I was referencing Sons.
BB = greatest TV show of all time.
Albuquerque. The Land O’ Liberace. You lolas fit right in.
Georgia O Keefe painted mangos.
Only whites, Hispanics and Indians.
But thank God no Irish.
Warning. Not PC. (But funny!)
Blazing Saddles:
… we don’t want the Irish!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD0BcQTIr4c
“if you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.”
Prisoners don’t like bacon?? I highly doubt that.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/10/new-pork-ban-in-federal-prisons-is-totally-unrelated-to-muslims-inmates-just-suddenly-hate-bacon/
Why are we bending over for these 7th century savages? Watching all of this, you have to think we’ve been transported to the twilight zone.
Prisoners don’t like bacon??
It’s pork or nothing. (Does bacon count?)
“We didn’t open school canteens for partisan, religious, philosophical, cultural reasons,” “
‘Pork or nothing’: Mayor makes Muslim kids to go meatless at French school
https://www.rt.com/news/213531-pork-meat-school-substitute/
Muslim parents and pupils expressed their fury at the mayor’s decision, especially due to the fact that a second meal doesn’t cost any extra.
A secularism scandal is raging in France, after a mayor in a northwestern town introduced a “pork or nothing” principle at school, even for 27 students who will get no meat substitute.
TagsReligion, Scandal, Human rights, France
The rule will apply starting from January 1 in the town of Sargé-lès-Le Mans, and may apply to Jewish pupils as well – though there aren’t any in this particular school.
Mayor Marcel Mortreau bases his decision on the “principle of Republican neutrality.”
“The mayor is not required to provide meals that respond to religious requirements. This is the principle of secularism,” Mortreau told Europe1 radio.
The Gorilla In The Great Room….. The Gators In The Crater…. it’s all good.
Are American Ownership Society members too broke after paying the mortgage to spend at Walmart?
ft dot com
Last updated: October 14, 2015 5:33 pm
Walmart shares dive 10% on profit warning
Lindsay Whipp in Chicago
A customer loads his SUV with purchases outside of a Wal-Mart store in Mexico City, Mexico, on Friday, February 9, 2007. Wal-Mart de Mexico SA, Latin America’s biggest retailer, posted its smallest profit increase in a year by cutting prices to take market share from competitors.
Photographer: Jaime Puebla/Bloomberg News.
©Bloomberg
The cost for Walmart of taking on Amazon was laid bare on Wednesday, when the world’s largest retailer lost a tenth of its $200bn-plus market value after warning that investment in ecommerce and wages would hit profits over the next few years.
The Arkansas-based group, which serves about 260m shoppers every week, is struggling to catch up with Amazon in ecommerce, as its arch rival sets a fast pace for innovation in areas such as delivery services, often at the expense of profit margins.
Coupled with its earlier decision to raise hourly wages by $1 to $10 and spend more on training, the investment in ecommerce means Walmart expects earnings per share to fall between 6-12 per cent in the year starting next February, whereas consensus forecasts had been for 4 per cent growth.
It also cut its sales forecast for the current fiscal year as the strong dollar eats into its foreign revenues. It now expect no revenue growth this year compared with an earlier forecast of a 1-2 per cent increase, with top line growth of 3-4 per cent annually over the next three years, adding $45bn-$60bn to sales.
Walmart’s shares fell sharply, closing down 10 per cent in New York at $60.03, their lowest for more than three years. The fall came despite Walmart’s promise to buy back $20bn worth of its shares over the next two years.
The bleak outlook comes amid an uncertain consumer recovery in the US, where Walmart said earlier this year that it has yet to see a benefit from the fall in fuel prices. Instead Americans are either banking those savings or spending them on eating out. Retail sales rose a tepid 0.1 per cent in September, according to data released on Wednesday.
Doug McMillon, chief executive, said Walmart’s investment in ecommerce and staff would peak next year. “To deliver [to] shareholders we have to win first with customers and associates,” he said: “You clean up your house before you invite people over.”
…
Sounds like WMT is needing to invest in online shopping and is factoring in the hit for increasing pay.
Next up, price increases?
Arbitrary price increases merely drive demand lower.
the spending has stopped…
Millennials just want a nice phone.
And then can’t stop looking at it, especially while driving.
Millennials just want a nice phone…then can’t stop looking at it
lol I made this up and it’s funny (if done funnily). You have to be wearing a ball cap.
Ask someone along the lines of “do I look 20 years younger?” while you put your ball cap on backwards while pecking at your cellphone staring at it with dumber than sh!t look on your face.
You got us there! it’s almost as funny as investing in Brazil Real Estate!
it’s almost as funny as your lies about your “American friends protesting in Brazil”.
Oh yea. “If they’re still there.”
Fool.
He’s already got the look on face part now all Lola needs is a ball cap and a permanent address other than the shelter to send the iphone bill to.
Shack related conversation with boss this morning.
Me: What’s happnin’ Stevie
Him: Working from the house today. Sent some carpenters over to fix soffit, gyp board and drip edge. Had water coming in.
Me: Houses are wallet-emptying money pits.
Him: Yup. You don’t make a penny on them.
CRATER
do what he says or u will be broke!
Housing is booming,
but where are the buyers,
inventory is looming,
realtors are liars
In my neighborhood, we have plenty of buyers.
The teardown on the corner just sold for $25K over asking - it closed about a week ago.
Data my friend data.
Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Dive 7% YoY On Falling Housing Demand
http://www.zillow.com/kirkland-wa-98033/home-values/