The Housing Bubble

“must have” new iPhone6’

Exactly. The kids don’t want the cheap ones. It’s the modern day equivalent of wearing “buddies”.

PC sales might be down, but server sales are up. And that’s where the money is”

yes 400Gb/s systems. PAM4 . Chrome book and work off severs bye bye Microsoft.

“Chrome book and work off severs bye bye Microsoft.”

That’s a problem, IMO.

Get onboard with another subscription service or don’t participate. Time to start a “business” and write off the service as a business expense.

Microsoft has their Azure Cloud services, and their software has a nice “look and feel.” Searching through terabytes of files on the cloud is a snap with their continuous indexing. Microsoft Office isn’t going anywhere, yet.

Did they drop the ball on mobile computing? Yes.

And IBM dropped a similar ball back in the early seventies.

“Get onboard with another subscription service or don’t participate. Time to start a “business” and write off the service as a business expense.”

+1 Surface Pro 4 and the Azure Cloud.

“your investment”

To be fair, we’ve established that Jingle’s ROI is less than 1%. The paper profits he is enjoying are overwhelmingly echo bubble “price” increases. If the market falls off by 20% he’s underwater. Given the tenuous nature of the bubble now, that’s something that one shouldn’t get pats on the back for. We’ll see, maybe it’s to the moon from here.

To be fair, we’ve established that Jingle’s ROI is less than 1%.

I see. Perhaps some HBB’ers feel the need to diminish JM’s success because they are jealous?

Not at all! He generously supports the HBB. We love him for it.

It’s just that the chickens haven’t hatched. We have to check him on getting too excited. If we are in a bubble he is in a tight spot and imagined profits may go poof. If not he is a genius.

I don’t think that it’s jealousy. But there’s some sort of pretty intense animosity directed at Jingle Male that is hard to understand.

It doesn’t matter if we are in a bubble now. It matters whether we were in a bubble in 2010, which is when he purchased those houses.

And I mean an actual measurable poppable bubble, not your constant vague “greatest credit expansion which is gonna deflate… at some point.” By then, he will have paid the things off.

Anytime in the last 15 years, housing prices were at a minimum 200% higher than long term trend.

I agree Donk. That’s what matters. Here’s something else that matters; Current construction costs are $55/sq ft (lot, labor, materials and profit).

I’ve encouraged all of you to use the JT extension and will continue to. Most of you still haven’t the spine to do so.

Why is that?

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-uS/firefox/addon/joshua-tree-extension/

So crazy people shooting up schools every week is worth it, as long as you can get two extra weeks outside of the camps?

That’s pretty much pure cuckoo, you know?

Goon, hate to say it dude but that’s some tin foil hat territory right there.

I’m sure the American citizens of Japanese descent said the same thing before being sent to the internment camps.

The apocalyptic “end of the world” didn’t happen during the great depression, I doubt it will happen now.

It’s not a “war” that I expect to win, but I would rather starve and freeze to death alone than go into the camps.

If you really believe this is going to happen, why haven’t you bugged out to some 3rd world country?

Mexico’s economy collapsed, and while it was rough, the lights didn’t go out and people did not starve. The Mexodus did take some pressure off of it, but the population continued to grow.

None of us have ever been starving or freezing.

“None of us have ever been starving or freezing.”

The military’s combat arms schools rely heavily on starving and freezing to flush-out the quitters early on well before the specialized training commences.

Just read Salon and Huffington Post to learn what they want. They are authoritarian statists (not much different than the authoritarian statists on the right who need to drop bombs on brown people to achieve sexual arousal). They hate individualism, because it is theft from the collective. I post alot of articles critical of the neocon agenda, and they say nothing about that. But start posting about the 2nd Amendment and unleash the “progressive” hive.

They are paid employees of the Southern Poverty Law Center.

who are considered too mentally ill to own a gun? Everyone on Prozac, SSRIs, who see a psychiatrist, who?

Ah, there’s the rub! Once you take out everyone on psychomeds, and everyone with an epo against them, and everyone with a history of domestic violence or violence against others, there aren’t all that many gun owners left. You’ve got to keep the crazies, the tranqed, and the violent in the tent. All while acting like you’d like them out. It’s quite a balancing act.

It’s not illegal to be crazy until you go to hurt someone. Preempting violence because of someone’s supposed mental deficiency would be a crime against the innocent.

Preempting violence because of someone’s supposed mental deficiency would be a crime against the innocent.

Interesting. So we agree that the “mental health problem” is inherent in widespread gun ownership without background checks. We’ll always have crazies who can buy assault rifles and armor piercing bullets, because we need a well-regulated militia.

Do we not deny driver’s licenses to those who are unfit to drive?

“unfit”? Only after the SHTF.

I don’t think we deny a driver’s license to someone who suffers from…say depression. If they go and have some “accidents” then they are considered unfit, because of the infractions of the law, not because of the potential for infractions.

A drinker may have a driver’s license until after he drinks and drives.

And so on.

Progressives don’t want rational gun laws, they want disarming and confiscation. Admit it. So why even discuss rational proposals.

Because unlike you, most people are rational. Admit it. So why even discuss your erroneous depiction of progressives?

how about something simple like the existing background checks apply to gun shows too.

It’s not erroneous.

Leftists would love outright disarming and confiscation but know full well that would not go over well. So instead they will do “defacto disarming” by making gun ownership so onerous, expensive and difficult that most people will give up.

In LA, they have banned magazines over 10 rounds. I live in a city that is completely surrounded by LA. So, while in my city it’s still legal to possess there is no possible way I can transport those magazines to a gun range without committing a criminal offense.

That’s the vile sneakiness of leftists. They push “common sense” gun laws, which are never enough. So slowly and methodically they use every tragedy to push through another incremental step design to make gun ownership burdensome and impossible. They will eventually get their goal but can sit their like the disgusting, lying authoritarians they are and claim they don’t want confiscation.

*sit there

wow. that must be fun to go shoot a gun at a range. weeeeee!

Boehner-fun!

/sarc

In LA, they have banned magazines over 10 rounds.

I owned 10 round magazine guns in California. I didn’t think it was that big of a deal that I couldn’t have higher capacity magazines. I think 10 is a good compromise. How many more do we need for protection and sport anyway?

They will eventually get their goal

America will never and should never ban all guns.

Do we not deny driver’s licenses to those who are unfit to drive?

Do we have a Constitutional Amendment granting the people the right to drive cars? It’s going to take a lot more than a proposed rulemaking and 30-day public comment period to determine who can bear arms and who can’t.

And get rid of the 4th Amendment along with the second cause that’s what it will take to disarm. Going house to house searching, first for guns … Next for …?

Do we not deny driver’s licenses to those who are unfit to drive?

95% of our electorate are demonstrably too stupid to vote, but we let them anyway.

Idiots behind the wheel give us car accidents.

Idiots in the voting booth give us hope ‘n change or the even worse GOP “alternatives.”

And CalifoH20 reverts back to the standard leftist tactic of mocking and dismissal…

And CHE reverts back to the standard gun nut tactic of considering every single common sense gun law to be the start the start of that “slippery slope” towards banning all guns.

“Mocking and dismissal”:

“sit their like the disgusting, lying authoritarians they are”

And remember kidz, registration, confiscation, extermination….we get a centrally planned workers paradise.

Rather we’re getting a paranoid delusion fest. Good grief. It’s worse than watching the Repubs debate.

In 1984 the big enemy of Big Brother and the State was the evil Capitalists in their top hats. Your workers paradise is coming comrade.

Paradise is coming. That’s great news!

“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Also recommend the book “We” by Yevgeny Zamyatin, published in 1924.

“[Soltzhenitsyn] condemned both the United States government and American society for its “hasty” capitulation in the Vietnam War.”

wikipedia

Those sound like interesting books. Don’t buy them online though, or you’ll end up on a watch list.

I guess you never saw the Seattle riots?

Seattle riots

I wish the SPLC would investigate the so-called anarchist groups that disrupt otherwise thoughtful protests against the PTB. I strongly suspect the so-called “black bloc” is sponsored by Exxon and the Kochsters, amongst others.

I wish the SPLC would

Why don’t you bring it up in the next all-hands staff meeting?

Maybe I will.

There is, you just aren’t looking for it. They are HUGELY a pissed he cowtowed to her and shilled for her on the emails.

Do you have a link?

I prefer Bernie over Hillary but I have to agree that she presented herself very well. She was poised, articulate and had a good stage presence.

Bernie’s “we’re sick of your damn e-mails” was not some conspiracy to bail her out. It is completely consistent with Bernie’s position on campaigning, which is to stick to the issues and he refuses to engage in mudslinging. He was criticizing the MSM for focusing on her e-mails instead of the plight of the middle class.

So how are they declaring her the winner? I don’t get it.

All the MSM pundits are saying she won the debate and that Sanders just came across as a grumpy old man. Which makes sense when you remember who owns the MSM.

What do you think of the whole e-mail thing?

I know plenty of Democrats that just want to pretend it didn’t happen and it’s no big deal.

“…she presented herself very well.”

Presentation indeed. The current administration is guilty of murder, theft and lies throughout on a grand scale. If you support that, then go ahead and support whatever filthy spawn of it that is trotted out with a “good presentation”.

Presentation is part of the debates, which are a kind of performance. They rarely provide any useful information. Interested voters can look the positions of the candidates on their web sites.

The whole email situation is ridiculous. You can’t take a job as an elected official and all of the privilege that come with it, and have a secret email account.

There is no other reason for that than hiding something. She deleted a ton of emails, etc etc. Even Obama seemed to think it was a bad idea, but clearly he can’t criticize her. If it weren’t a big deal, as she claims, she would have just released them. She knew it was a big deal, but with all of the foundation money and favors etc, she needed that separate.

Yet, let me guess, she would vote for more government intervention in our email/internet access.

You can’t take a job anywhere and have a personal e-mail server to conduct company business.

(Sanders) shilled for her on the emails.….He was criticizing the MSM for focusing on her e-mails instead of the plight of the middle class.

I actually can’t believe that needed to be explained unless “IrbalVayAgra” has an IQ under 110 or is blinded by bias.

“Enough of the emails. Let’s talk about the real issues facing America.”
Bernie Sanders

If I sent a single work email with anything remotely sensitive or confidential from my personal account I’d be fired immediately. And enormous amount of money is spent on the security of communication for a reason. To actively circumvent that and then say “what’s the big deal?” is inexcusable.

But I also agree that there’s no point in asking her about it. She’s been very clear what her opinion is on what she did.

+1 Max.

Also, if Bernie doesn’t win, he would prefer Hillary over the alternative. As such, it makes sense for him to play it down.

sara is uninformed. ;(

Thanks for the easy drive by insult, but I am not sure what you are referring to, californiah20.

The problem is that the line of reasoning is baloney.

Borrowing $1 today is harder and costs more than it did then, despite lower 30-year fixed rates now. Why? Because then you could get an Option ARM and pay even less than just the interest by lying about your income. Today, you have to pay the whole interest amount, principal, and prove your income.

Add on top of it that home prices haven’t nationally come close to peak, and the claim that the situation is worse than 2006 is completely false.

WRONG.

Prices today are far more inflated than ever, 500 FICO is quickly approved and 3% down is the standard for all mortgages.

That’s the definition of subprime Rental_Fraud.

There is even hope for you Goon.

—————

Kirsten Powers’ Reluctant Journey from Atheism to Christian
CrossMap | Mark Ellis

She worked for the Clinton administration, became a liberal pundit for the Daily Beast and a regular Democratic contributor to Fox News. On top of that, all her friends were agnostics or atheists. So when God pursued and won her reluctant heart, she was more surprised than anyone else.

“If there was one thing in which I was completely secure, it was that I would never adhere to any religion-especially to evangelical Christianity, which I held in particular contempt,” writes Kirsten Powers, in a first-person account of her conversion published in Christianity Today.

She found herself returning for more, but one thing disappointed her about his messages - his mention of Jesus. She left each week with some frustration, wondering, Why did he have to ruin a perfectly good talk with this Jesus nonsense?

As Keller propounded the case for Christ, she began to question her atheism. “He expertly exposed the intellectual weaknesses of a purely secular worldview. I came to realize that even if Christianity wasn’t the real thing, neither was atheism.”

Still, she didn’t feel any particular connection to God. “I continued to think that people who talked of hearing from God or experiencing God were either delusional or lying. In my most generous moments, I allowed that they were just imagining things that made them feel good.”

Powers returned to New York a few days later, but felt lost and confused as she tried to process her growing consciousness of God’s presence. “I suddenly felt God everywhere and it was terrifying. More important, it was unwelcome. It felt like an invasion. I started to fear I was going crazy.”

She sought out the advice of a friend, author and cultural commentator Eric Metaxas, whom she knew to be a Christian. “You need to be in a Bible study,” he told her. He recommended a study taught by Pastor Tim Keller’s wife.

I am agnostic, not atheist like Selfish Hoarder.

And I acknowledge the role of the church in preserving literacy in the western world during the dark ages, the significance of the Gutenberg Bible and later the King James Version in the development of literacy in Europe, the Reformation and the role of Protestant Christianity in the development of the modern world, specifically (as much as cultural relativists would like to deny this) that the overwhelming majority of technological, cultural, social contributions that made the modern western world what it is today are directly attributable to Protestantism.

Most importantly, Protestant Christianity is the foundation of the rights of the individual, and of freedom of thought.

Organized religion, categorized into denominations, is as collectivist as the Godless progressivism that seeks to destroy it. I reject both.

Wow. That’s one awesome post right there, I don’t care who y’are.

Plus a gazillion.

Yes that summarizes the essential points very well.
Thanks

Organized religion, categorized into denominations, is as collectivist as the…..Protestant Christianity is the foundation of the rights of the individual, and of freedom of thought.

So you’re saying Protestant “collectivist” organized religion is greatly responsible the rights of the individual, and of freedom of thought and societal advancement.

This is an argument that certain forms of collectivism promote the rights of the individual, freedom of thought and societal advancement. (They do.)

Because Protestant Christianity and “organized religion” are one and the same, and the advancements you spoke of would not have happened without Protestant organized religion collectivism.

….organized religion is greatly responsible for the rights of the individual….

“Protestant organized religion collectivism”

On this date in the year 2015, Lola coined another new Lolaism.

Protestant Christianity is the foundation of the rights of the individual, and of freedom of thought.

Well, except for those ancient Greeks and Romans. From whom, of course, our Founding Fathers took most of their inspiration.

Otherwise, great soapbox.

‘evading personal responsibility’

You should check out this coming weekends first post, in part looks at that but on a massive scale.

Here’s how it works.

Each LLC is set up separately–This is for a number of reasons:

1. Limitation of liabiltiy;
2. Separation of the investment from others (each property might have different investors);
3. But also because many lenders require single-purpose entities–they underwrite one property and don’t want others to cause problems with THEIR loan.

And each loan has different recourse requirements based on the lender’s requirements.

1. Some lenders require personal repayment guarantees from the Manager of the LLC. In such cases, causing the LLC to file BK does no good. The lender goes after the manager anyway.
2. Some lenders do not require personal repayment guarantees, but still have carve-outs for “bad boy” acts. As such, if the market tanks, the manager can hand the property to the bank and have no recourse. However, if they file BK (one of the “bad boy” acts), they have “springing recourse”–meaning the act of filing causes them to have full liability for the loan personally.
3. In some cases, the loans are set up in ways that actually allow a BK filing–this is more and more rare in my experience.

An LLC isn’t a magic bullet to avoid personal liability.

Isn’t it in the acronym: limited liability?

I’ll step in to defend the use of an LLC - it is a very smart thing to do to protect one’s personal assets and all of the smaller builders in my area use them.

One of my former employers who makes aerial lift equipment for construction gets sued all of the time; the actual company itself has no assets. The buildings are owned by one LLC (owned by the company’s former owners and leased back to the company), and the fixtures/tooling and inventory are owned by another LLC.

I’ll step in to defend the use of an LLC - it is a very smart thing to do to protect one’s personal assets

Of course it’s smart. But in the case of Trump, if he’s got billions and he has other profitable ventures, there’s something unethical about stiffing creditors when he has the ability to pay. Like many things in life what is legal is not always ethical.

The creditors don’t have to lend Trump money. They do it because they look at the risk, which includes how he’s structured the company, and the decide it’s worth the reward. Simple. Anyone who loans Trump money deserves whatever they get. But Trump would be a fool not to take advantage of easy money with no recourse if it’s available.

Both FSA and crony capitalists need to be sorted out. Hillary will take on neither.

But will Hillary keep us safe from Islamic terror?

But back to killing brown people, banana. According to the top GOP candidates, we should be killing a lot more of them. Do you agree with them?

But back to killing brown people, banana. According to the top GOP candidates, we should be killing a lot more of them. Do you agree with them?

Bomb, bomb, bomb; bomb, bomb Iran!

Listened to this on the way into town this morning.

“President Barack Obama said in 2013 that there had to be “near certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured,” before any drone strikes are authorized. However, in one U.S. operation between January 2012 and February 2013 in northeastern Afghanistan, 35 out of more than 200 people killed by drones were the actual intended targets, The Intercept reported.”

http://netnebraska.org/node/994848

For eight years, obama and the democrats have destroyed the economy, destroyed jobs

That’s totally correct unless one applies mathematics to the issues.

I love how the neocon champions of boots-on-the-ground war suddenly become SJW’s over drone strikes.

200 is a tiny, tiny fraction of the global civilian population. I suspect more are killed by enraged wombats that Obama’s death drones.

“neocon champions of boots-on-the-ground”

This is not true of me. You are on a roll.

“Forward! He cried, from the rear”

So is mine for this post. Feel free to disclose it.

How’d you do that?

Continent: South America
Country: Brazil

A proxy. Just like Lola uses to pretend she’s from another country.

Oh my.

And the plot thickens . . .

For you it does.

Awesome, MB. You just blew the lid off the triple troll.

Still waiting for your data showing 25M excess and empty houses . . .

Ahahahahahahahahhaa

What is the advantage of pretending to post from another country?

Liars must always lie. Always.

What is the advantage of pretending to post from another country?

Everyone know if one is commenting on a USA housing blog, one gains great advantage saying one lives in Brazil. It’s a no brainer right?

Just like if one’s commenting on a wine blog one gains great advantage saying one lives in Iraq. And on a Dutch blog tackling racism around the world, it’s best to say one’s from the USA.

Liars must always lie.

Is that why you know multiple American Citizen, Brazilian greencard holders living in Brazil actively protesting the Brazilian government BlueSky?? (”If they still live here”?)

You’re a fraud Lola

it has transformed itself into a para-police organization, a private sector spy agency (with non-profit taxpayer status) whose mission is no longer about justice or equality, but the advancement of a progressive, globalist agenda.

That sounds unlikely. What’s a para-police organization?

But most of the GOP candidates say he’s been weak, and hasn’t done enough. They want to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Won’t that lead to a very expensive war?

The GOP guys say proxy wars are for sissies. They want to send in the marines. Isn’t that a lot more expensive, in all sorts of ways, than a proxy war?

That is a lie and you know it. Meat prices have skyrocketed in the past few years.

Meat? What like mystery meat?

Prices are falling my friend.

Actually I watch this and

Commodity Ag is off 18% YOY.
Chicken is up 1% (7 lb chicken $7 at local chain)
Pork is off 30%
Beef is off 25%

The price of a ribeye steak at the local butcher’s shop is still high ($11/lb here), but I trust if that’s what you are living on you will see relief soon.

Most importantly; coffee is off 30%.

I was paying $5.99/lb for ribeyes from our local butcher shop in 2008-2009.

I’m currently paying that for 93% lean ground beef.

Same here. I’m just saying the wholesale prices are falling off a cliff. It’s all just processed corn, which is just processed oil. Should be no surprise.

Costco rotisserie chicken still $4.99 Eat it on the drive home.

Antibiotics included.

I thought oil and food prices are excluded from the CPI.

All i know is healthcare costs continue to skyrocket. Housing prices are skyrocketing. Rent prices are rising. College tuition keeps rising. The cost of a new car keeps going up. Electricity is going up.
Not sure what is deflating, i dont see it. Its all manipulation. When oil and food were going up, the govt said they werent in the cpi. Now that wholesale is going down, they are included in the cpi?

No, fuel and food have always been part of the CPI. They’re excluded from a thing called core CPI.

“it’s the meat!” NOPE.

“Not sure what is deflating,”

-Food
-Rental rates
-Housing
-Fuel
-Commodities

“Honestly, this is probably a good thing in the land of oversized-portions and oversized people”

Just because I buy a large container of something doesn’t mean I am going to eat it one sitting. I am fitness-obsessed but also a parent of growing kids - I like to stretch pennies into copper wires, so I look at the per ounce/pound price on everything.

I have seen my packages get smaller while the price is the same or up.

I now spend the extra gas to drive to a store that has huge savings on most things. It is swamped, full of every walk of life, seniors, middle class, food stampers and now me. Market Basket. It is like shopping in a zombie apocalypse, though, and with rascal scooters.

“Market Basket.”

Never heard of ‘em; not on the west coast anyway.

Nor on the east or in the south.

Flag.

Market Baskets are plentiful in Massachusetts (where I live, outside of Boston) NH and Maine.

I hadn’t heard of them and just moved from NJ. They don’t make you swipe those store cards to get discounts. Prices just are what they are, very low. Stop and Shop is the major competitor, Shop Rite tried to compete and recently did a bunch of store closings.

Glad to hear food commodities are dropping, hopefully it will trickle into grocery prices.

They are. Retail grocery prices are falling.

In downtown the only beggars/hobos are white men.

The Mexican men are at work.

Well, if illegal immigrants and refugees drove down inflation, we should all thanks them, not just seniors. But I don’t think that they’re responsible for the low inflation.

Plenty’o money for muslim refugees and illegals.

No money for seniors. Sorry - no COLA.

Plenty’o money for muslim refugees and illegals

That’s not the reason that there will no Social Security increase next year.