Bits Bucket for October 21, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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When the holiday season arrives, I’m changing my handle to “Jingle Bell”.
Ho, ho, ho. Is it too early to make Christmas jokes? HA!
You are the joke Jingle_Fraud.
You can call me Jingle Belle, HA. HA, Ha, ha, ha, h,…..
No need to change your moniker Jingle_Fraud.
Kettle to Pot….did you hear HA. No need to change your blogging name. HA, Ha, ha, ha, h…….ROTFLMAO.
Falling housing prices my friend…. falling housing prices.
Riviera Beach, FL Housing Prices Plummet 11% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/riviera-beach-fl/home-values/
Every time you hear a bell ring, it means a real estate specuvestor has got his wings clipped.
Your new handle should be Mister Positive Cash Flow. The ensuing reaction will be quite entertaining.
lol@Lola
Right on cue
The back breaker is the price bubble. Will it pop or not?
It’s only a back breaker if rental income falls below an underwater mortgage. Then the pain begins.
Not at all newbee. This is about love. It’s all about if perceived resale value goes up and up or down and down.
Borrowing money with no ROI just to barely pay back the loan with all the associated sweat isn’t what this is about.
Jingle_Fraud is already negative cash flow.
I have $1,600/mon positive cash flow. Next week, cash flow increases another $800/mon to $2,400/mon. We are refinancing four properties and lowering the debt service by $200/mon each. 3.5% and 3.625% loans are much better than 4.825% and 5.125%.
The appraisals support a 60% LTV which gets me into the lowest interest rate tier.
After all your BS, nobody believes a word you say.
Sure HA! Go find your 25 million foreclosed, abandoned, vacant houses. HA, Ha, ha, h….
25 MILLION excess, empty and defaulted houses CHECK
Housing demand at 20 year lows and falling CHECK
Housing prices inflated by 250% CHECK
Household formation at multi decade lows CHECK
Rampant housing fraud CHECK
A media corrupted by the housing industry CHECK
Population growth the lowest in US history CHECK
Immigration flat to slightly negative CHECK
Anything else?
Tinfoil Hat? Check HA!
Housing my friend…. Housing.
Frisco, TX Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/frisco-tx/market-trends/
Mill Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY; Mortgage Losses Loom
http://www.zillow.com/ponte-vedra-beach-fl/home-values/
You have your links mixed up, but that’s OK, it matches your mixed up “analysis”!
Thank you for correcting the error Jingle Male.
Mill Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY; Mortgage Losses Loom
http://www.movoto.com/mill-valley-ca/market-trends/
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL Housing Prices Plummet 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/ponte-vedra-beach-fl/home-values/
wonder why they say it’s expected to rise 1.7% next year?
maybe they meant the sea level!
Massachussetts Housing Prices Plunge 6% YoY Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/ma/home-values/
zillow is upping predictions
my hood from flat to +3.5%
realtor pressure ? what gives
I wonder what Zillow was predicting in January 2008.
Everything will be fine…until it isn’t.
Reminds me of this exchange from Fletch
Dr. Joseph Dolan: You know, it’s a shame about Ed.
Fletch: Oh, it was. Yeah, it was really a shame. To go so suddenly like that.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: He was dying for years.
Fletch: Sure, but… the end was very… very sudden.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: He was in intensive care for eight weeks.
Fletch: Yeah, but I mean the very end, when he actually died. That was extremely sudden.
I remember wanting to buy a new house in 2005. When I started the research and discovered the HBB, I decided to rent. It seemed like and eternity for the housing meltdown finally take effect. Even then, I bought one too early in Jan. 2008.
The best deal I got was in Nov. 2010. That was FIVE years later, although I must say, we were able to buy a house beyond the amenities we had ever hoped to achieve. It is a toe tag house for us!
And you could have rented it for half the monthly cost Jingle_Fraud.
Actually, my all in monthly cost is $2,450. The house next door just rented for $3395. Keep trying HA. Someday you’ll be correct.
Nonsense.
Wow HA, you’re sort of correct. Rental prices have dropped a bit. Here is one available today for $2,800 that somewhat similar & comparable to my house.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/5260451084.html
Still, it cost me less to own at $2,450 and $600/month goes to principal reduction. So $1,850 vs $2,800? I choose to control my own destiny at $1,850.
Doubtful.
Very Serious People have said, “Economics is not a morality play.”
I beg to differ. Economics is about the divvying up of scarce resources, who gets how much, for doing what, and how much they have to sweat to do so. You better believe there’s a strong component of justice and morality involved in figuring that out.
Pretending it’s not gives a lot of people cover to do lots of shady - and highly profitable/extractive - things.
“Pretending it’s not…”
On a related note, does the Fed consider the distributive aspects of its monetary policy decisions? For instance, how ZIRP has robbed a generation of senior citizens of a return on their savings?
Who has robbed whom?
Seems to me that the typical senior citizen has made out exceedingly well due to actions of the Fed.
Much of the wealth today’s elderly have resulted from a quadrupling+ of home prices, as well as stocks and pensions.
They made much more than a 6-8% return would have made them in interest.
Fortunately, very few senior citizens spend their days whining. Of course, there are exceptions.
You are talking about wealthy seniors with lots of accumulated assets such as stocks and houses. I was referring to less wealthy seniors who mainly rely on accumulated savings. Sorry to confuse you…
i don’t think that “wealthy” distinction works. Regular working folks bought houses then rode the wave up and up and up.
11k people turn 65 each day, avg income of $21k. yikes!
more and more people on “welfare” per the stats.
The men get hypnotized by the angry channel, and metamorphasize into Crybaby Conservatives. Saw it happen to my dad, my uncles, and all their friends.
Thanks, Obama!
What explains your lobotomy and obvious eunuch status?
Just keep watching those tree monkeys screech, pump your arteries full of rage hormones, and you’ll be dead before you know it!
I don’t watch the corporate media, and tend to take a somewhat stoic view of things I have no control over.
“the typical senior citizen has made out exceedingly well…”
A percentage no doubt, but not the majority by far.
We sold my mother’s house for 18X what it cost to build after WWII. That paid for a little over one year in a nursing facility.
Most of us don’t have pensions or stocks. We were supposed to save and then live off the interest! We were also supposed to put our kids on a good footing, carry a big mortgage and cope with rising costs of everything while our pay rather stagnated during our peak working years.
I got a little bit ahead because of years of siphoning off of the capital expansion boom, and various manias like solar, at the same time lowering my expenses. You can save a lot when you are only spending $200/mo on shelter and utilities, driving a beater until the fenders fall off, canning and conniving, doing my own repairs and making my own “beverages” (might as well put engineering training to practical use).
Still, the interest on my savings would not pay most people’s grocery bills. Is that doing “exceedingly well”?
I don’t get my hair cut during the first few days of the month. That’s when most of the seniors in my neighborhood go to the barber, because their check has come in. That’s how most seniors are doing.
Are you talking extraordinary medical costs on top of the facility itself? I see care facilities in the less than 50K a year range. I’m not sure how the 18X number works out for one year unless you are talking about paying for extraordinary medical.
blue,
No kidding on these damn low interest rates. We calculated we should have seen around $25K-$33K of interest annually, when we liquidated to our savings, and the ROI was a joke. And like you, we are the sandwich generation. We were parsimonious as well, and the PTB worked against us. Luckily, we have low monthly expenditures. What we get concerned about are the oh “chit” situations beyond our control. I guess that is everybody, but the time factor is a huge variable.
The extraordinary medical expenses occurred at the front end of the nursing facility stay. Insurance paid for that. Needless to say it wasn’t a bargain rate “we’ll take your Medicare coverage and that’s enough” facility.
Blue,
How long until the end, did your mother live in the nursing home?
Was she lucid and agreeable to the decision?
JMO, living in a nursing home is an oxymoron. My mother was lucid enough at the end to make the same determination.
One really should raise hell and kick ass while one is able.
Inchy, also note that, if you run into and Oh Chit and really need the cash, you still have the option to sell that toe-tag house for a large amount of cash, and buy an Oil City house for a small amount of cash. That’s the advantage of a paid off house, (or substantial equity in a house).
There’s a pretty funny meme out that that “OMG, I can’t afford to buy my own house.” Yeah, isn’t that how it’s supposed to happen?
ǁ Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-21 10:35:30
Lying. Through.Her.Teeth.The.Whole.Time.
↑ There, see HA, I saved you some work.
‘isn’t that how it’s supposed to happen’
It wasn’t that way for 600 years.
“Yeah, isn’t that how it’s supposed to happen?”
Only in mania eternal does 30 years of debt service make you too rich to live in your own house.
I detect DonkeyRage
Oxide
That could be plan B.
ACA in Ca is Covered Ca. They deleted me off their system, canceling me retroactive on Aug 28th, back to April 1st without any notice. I found out when I needed a medical appt for a sinus infection. I’ve made payments and have canceled checks through Sept. What a mess. I’m insurance nude with proof of payment. They deleted AR on me. What Accounting trick did they play? Did my payment get a JE into a suspense acct? I’m livid. 2-3 weeks to fix.
Then Covered Ca tells me, should I have an emergency room visit, just use the “believe me” rule, and work out the liability later. OPM for sure.
“Isn’t that how it’s supposed to happen?”
In a Ponzi scheme, yes, that’s exactly how it’s supposed to happen, although the marks never see how they are being played. They think they’re getting “rich”.
The marks think they’re the players.
I don’t want to hurt your brain here, or pop every last illusion you’ve got and wreck your world, but if you couldn’t afford your house at it’s current “valuation”, who can?
You’re probably a pretty ordinary person in economic terms, so if ordinary people can no longer afford ordinary houses…
… Chinese unicorns?
And then what, once all the foreign money launderers and American tech workers (an industry that is, itself, entire funded by these very same Chinese money launderers) have bought housing in the next casino round, who will buy from them once the prices have gone up again?
Do you really not see, at long last, the scheme that is afoot here?
How does that help them if it’s their toe-tag house?
Perhaps we are living in the “post scarcity” era, but just don’t know it. Yet.
“Morality” is for the little people, not that they are all that keen on abiding by it.
It is just so heartwarming to hear all the politicians and FIRE sector professionals so deeply concerned about getting people of limited means to buy houses. These people are so selfless. Truly, a model for the rest of us.
Freddie Mac CEO wants more low down-payment mortgages
Freddie Mac CEO Donald Layton told an audience at the Mortgage Bankers Association annual convention in San Diego on Monday that the surprise announcement last year by FHFA Director Mel Watt instructing his company and Freddie Mac to buy loans with down payments as low as 3% was a net positive and that more low down payment products could be on their way in the next year or so.
Currently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are under the conservatorship of the FHFA, and Layton told mortgage bankers it was likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future. “We’re still several years away” from a reform measure that could bring the two big mortgage backers out from under the FHFA’s control, he said.
The FHFA was created in the aftermath of the mortgage market collapse when pools of mortgage backed securities that were thought to be safe investments turned out to contain hundreds of risky loans that later defaulted, bringing down both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as investment banks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/freddie-mac-ceo-wants-more-low-down-payment-mortgages-2015-10-20
‘thought to be safe investments turned out to contain hundreds of risky loans’
Hundreds?
‘JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., has exited the business of making home loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration in a dramatic way — and more big banks may follow them out the door as well.’
‘Most large banks have already curtailed FHA-backed loans in the past two years because of concerns about credit and legal risks, and JPMorgan’s astounding 98% drop-off in that period puts an exclamation mark on the trend. The $1.8 trillion-asset bank’s FHA market share was a mere 0.2% at June 30, compared with 12.2% just two years earlier. Indeed, JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon himself warned last year that the risks of FHA lending were just too great.’
‘However, nonbank rivals have stepped into the void. Nonbanks’ share jumped to 68% in August, up from 62.2% in February and 26.8% in November 2012, virtually replacing the share ceded by large banks.’
‘Ashbaugh noted that FHA loans are also riskier than other mortgage products because FHA loans are marketed to folks with low FICO scores. “These borrowers tend to go delinquent from time to time and have a higher chance of foreclosure and bankruptcies,” he explained.’
Nonbanks, where the fraud is.
Quicken, “pennymac”,etc =fraud in both direction and top to bottom.
The FSA demands low-down-payment mortgages, and Comrade Pelosi and her ilk will deliver, secure in the knowledge that middle class taxpayers and the Fed’s printing press have Freddie Mac’s back.
Forward, Soviet!
From each according to their abilities
To each according to their need.
Gotta get while the gettin’s good, boys. The Fed’s got your back.
Seriously though: The taxpayer/government should not be the “Muppet/Buyer/Lender of Last Resort” for Wall Street. It encourages criminal behavior.
Hedge Funds are Bringing Back Everyone’s Least Favorite Toxic Investment
Joshua Siegel is bringing back a version of one of the most toxic financial vehicles ever devised and arguing that this time it’s going to be different.
His StoneCastle Financial is among the funds that are reviving the collateralized debt obligation, or CDO.
In a 2001 research report, Siegel divided the U.S. into five regions and wrote that the geographic diversity of the banks whose TruPS he used — picking debt from different areas — would make the CDOs safer.
But banks failed all over the country in the 2008 credit crunch, throwing shade on Siegel’s original theory about regional diversification. Larry Cordell, a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said that’s because too many banks’ portfolios were concentrated in real estate and mortgages. They weren’t diversified enough, he said. The market for TruPS CDO collapsed. Some investors are still waiting to be repaid.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/cdo-revival-led-by-hedge-funds-pinning-hopes-on-smallest-banks
Merkel and her Oligopoly-controlled CDU will go down in infamy for opening up Germany to these vipers.
https://www.rt.com/news/319267-cologne-isis-churches-funding/
Hitting a company - a legal fiction / logical construct - with sanctions is a lot like hitting a country with sanctions. The leaders don’t suffer, it’s the grunts who bear the brunt of it.
Kim Jong Un maintains a very healthy weight and net worth. Jamie and Lloyd are newly minted billionaires. Joe Cassano’s and Dick Fuld’s fortunes were not touched as a result of their actions.
Jamie and Lloyd are newly minted billionaires. Joe Cassano’s and Dick Fuld’s fortunes were not touched as a result of their actions.
That’s because 95% of ‘Muricans sanctioned crony capitalism with their votes for its water carriers, Obama, McCain, and Romney.
And yet now they seem to be rejecting Hillary Jeb. The best development in a generation.
Yes, and a development that challenges my assumption that stupid people are doomed to remain forever unintelligent.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/16629031224/
Hitting a company - a legal fiction / logical construct - with sanctions
Wait. I thought the Sup Court said corporations are people. Now I’m confused.
Will the Oligopoly end up backing Carson as an alternative to Trump?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-leads-expectations-shows-strength-attributes-poll/story?id=34599211
Trump/Carson ticket? Wouldn’t that cover almost a majority of the Rs?
Trump/Carson would a lot better than Trump/crap weasel Cruz.
The Donald going from strength to strength while the establishment GOP clown car occupants flounder.
http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-abc-poll
These number explain why Amazon wants to give so much free stuff to Prime members
Amazon reports its next quarterly earnings this Thursday. Wall Street expects a loss of $0.13 per share and $24.9 billion in revenue.
If our markets weren’t so rigged and manipulated, I would be shorting AMZN.
Yesterday I was listening to a radio show and a guy was talking about buying apartments. He mentioned $35,000 per door. I also read an article about a big apartment purchase in the Denver area, at $171,000 per door.
People will ask someday, how did you know Amazon’s stock was going to crash? Because they can’t make money with $25 billion in revenue. How did you know the bay area was going to crash? Because there isn’t a house in the world worth $1,000 per square foot.
Weird article, IMO. I must be missing something. All these great numbers for Amazon Prime, and yet the company can’t make a profit?
I have a buddy who sells stuff on line. He thinks Amazon is the greatest thing since sliced bread. He’s one of their third party merchants. Apparently the holy grail is to find an item that can be made in China and sold on Amazon. Something mundane. like a spatula or toilet brush. He hasn’t found “it” yet, but he’s looking, wants to be an Amazon millionaire, ever since he discovered all the people hawking courses about selling on Amazon.
But he did discover something interesting. Amazon competes with its third party merchants. He bought a wholesale closeout at some outlet and put the item up on Amazon, which was selling the same item, although Amazon had a lot more of them. He dropped the price to sell out the last few he had, and as he dropped his price. Amazon’s algorithm would drop the price on Amazon’s item five cents below what he was selling his for.
Isn’t this the “business model” of all the Silly Valley Unicorns? Earning a profit is so last century. Why struggle to make a measly billion or two profit off of $25B in sales, when the real money is in the company’s stock?
Yes, Amazon’s “dynamic pricing” is about as mysterious (and proprietary top-secret) as Google’s search result algorithms.
Their pricing can change by the hour, and definitely when I check the same item over the course of a few days, it is almost always different day-to-day.
Not to mention all of the in-website ads that I then get for that item for weeks afterwards.
The MCI Worldcom CEO is kicking himself. Instead of covering up his losses, he should have given himself a bonus. Amazon, relying on the kindness of strangers for over 20 years.
Amazon put one of my side businesses out to pasture. The mfg told me that sometimes Amazon sells their stuff for less then they paid for it. I was doing about $22k a month in sales with a 20% margin, after Amazon added the same stuff, I dropped to $3k a mo. Hard to beat them with “great service” when we all shop for the best price and free shipping.
“Blackstone to Buy Manhattan’s Stuyvesant Town for $5.3 Billion”
Practically a city itself, built after WWII as affordable housing for veterans with the help of NYC. Now Blackstone and a Canadian partner are working with NYC to turn the bankrupted Blackrock investment into largely unaffordable housing. They’ll save a few aside for a while as “affordable”.
With 11,000 apartments, that’s almost $500,000 per door.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/blackstone-to-buy-manhattan-s-stuyvesant-town-for-5-3-billion-ifzjecx2
I lived there the first four years of my life and actually have some memories of it. Many post WW2 middle class NY families started out there. People actually got to know their next door neighbors.
I mostly remember our apartment, and also a huge outdoor shower head on the playground where they’d turn on the water on hot days and people could run around underneath it in bathing suits (or underpants, if you were a kid) to cool off.
The same in happening at Park Merced in San Francisco, a similar post WW2 development also built by Metropolitan Life back in the day and affordable years ago…
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2014/10/parkmerced-investors-properties-lake-merced-sfsu.html
Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome Jeff Bezos.
https://acarisnotarefrigerator.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/meerkat-standing.jpg
Bezos had a “secret” meeting with other tech CEOs the other day; he told everybody in attendance to shut up about it and the press was not invited:
http://www.geekwire.com/2015/what-amazons-jeff-bezos-said-to-a-private-gathering-of-tech-ceos-last-night/
It’s interesting that these 1%ers don’t want any of the rest of us to know what they are talking about.
He’s just the type of guy that I do not want to work for. Company culture comes from the top. Related story: a former employer of mine got bought out by Terex, whose CEO is Ron DeFeo (no, not the Amityville Horror mass-murderer one) . Ron bragged once in an interview that he would not take “no” for an answer; in his early life, he was a pushy door-to-door vacuum cleaner (Kirby?) salesman that would elbow his way in the front door right past the protesting housewife, march into the bedroom, and pore a cup of dirt right on the bed before vacuuming it up (he admitted doing this in the interview).
He also said that he had no use for engineers, and often would lay off almost the entire engineering staff of smaller companies that he bought out. A really classy guy.
It’s the “meat” prices!
Trump’s prescient pre-9/11 thoughts on the terror threat.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/over-a-year-before-911-trump-wrote-of-terror-threat-with-rem#.nadP9D3yN
WTC leaseholder Larry Silverstein, on the phone with NYFD, approximately 4:00pm on 9/11, speaking regarding WTC building 7: “Let’s pull it.”
LOLZ
Another story consigned to the MSM memory hole.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3281532/Mob-Afghans-attack-new-arrivals-crowded-Lesbos-camp-sticks.html#ixzz3pBZeNdhy
The EU is sick.
And people complain about Mexican immigrants in the US…
My family has had nothing but trouble with immigrants ever since we came to this country.
…as immigrants?
Clearly you are tone-deaf to tongue-in-cheek irony/satire.
It’s hard to pick up when so many people here would say that without irony.
A discussion of conflicting formats of Sky Wizardry.
Huffington Post reporting that “Netanyahu says muslim leader convinced Hitler to kill Jewish people.”
Reuters reporting “Iran top leader Khamenei approves nuclear deal.”
40% of the Republican electorate are Evangelical Christians. If they truly accept Jesus as their Lord and Savior, why would they vote for the candidate that Sheldon Adelson purchased?
There is nothing Christian about neocon. It is secular satansim.
“40% of the Republican electorate are Evangelical Christians.”
Source? No way is the number that large.
Sounds like a figure that someone made up on the spot.
a figure that someone made up on the spot
Google search on: 40 percent republican evangelical
Result #2 - New York Times - Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals - May 5, 2015:
“White evengelical Christians are about 40 percent of Republican primary voters, representing a majority of the vote in many of that party’s caucuses and in the Southern primaries.”
Result #8 - Washington Post - GOP candidates make pitches to evangelical voters - October 18, 2015:
“People who identify themselves as evangelicals comprise more than 40 percent of the GOP electorate and are particularly influential in some of the early contests, starting with the Iowa caucuses.”
So yeah, MacBeth. It was from an article published three days ago, and I misquoted it by saying 40% of the electorate instead of 40% of the primary electorate.
Your better than that, being a nitpicker and hair splicer. That’s MikeyMite’s job.
Forgot a end italics html tag.
P.S. I read more than anyone on this blog, MacBeth.
A very small percentage of Evangelicals are evangelical.
Thank God for that.
+1 vote for post of the day. lol.
Shotgun Jesus disagrees.
“secular satansim”
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
Anyone who profits from war while hiding under the cloak of Sky Wizardry, regardless of format, is EVIL.
Neocons worship death.
A Financial Times headline:
Chinese investment in Africa plunges 84%
BTW, I’ve noticed these google links have started expiring after a day or so.
I try to avoid ever using google links.
How do you get a more permanent link?
Inconceivable! The ghost of ABQ Dan whispers from the Great Beyond that China’s economy is booming and they are hoovering up all those African minerals and metals to build their thriving non-ghost metropolises.
No more freebie roads, powerplants, schools, etc.? How can that be? The ChiComs are richer than anyone.
The article says that overall investment is down, but investment in extractive industries is up. Looks like China quit the nation building and is just stockpiling stuff, like prepper Mad Maxes.
Local news in Region VIII. The next GOP debate is a week from today in Boulder. This article illustrates how the “progressives” have scripted a narrative that makes no distinction between legal and illegal immigration.
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/latino-leaders-pushing-back-against-anti-immigrant-rhetoric-plan-massive-voter-registration-drive
Region VIII
What are the words Progressives are afraid of?
Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Paulson….
What is interesting is that the Mexodus has slowed of its own accord. Apparently the word is getting out south of the Rio Bravo that it’s hard to find work in “El Norte” and there is competition.
It’s also interesting how they are no longer “undocumented”, they are simply “immigrants”.
Word of advice: if you try being an “immigrant” without a visa in Mexico, you’ll get you azz arrested and will be deported.
Does anyone believe China’s growth figures?
Investing Guide
No one believes China’s growth, but…
By Heather Long
China’s corruption crackdown hurts luxury brands
China just told the world that it’s economy is growing at 6.9%. Almost no one believes that.
The Communist Party in China values stability above all else. The Chinese government set a target of 7% economic growth this year, so it’s no surprise that the country is reporting a figure very close to that.
“I once asked the premier of China: how reliable were Chinese statistics? He said not reliable, but they tell you which way the wind is blowing,” says former ambassador Stapleton Roy, who is now at the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.
Here’s what the latest GDP report tells us: Even the government acknowledges that China just had its worst economic growth since the Great Recession.
But it’s also a reminder to the world that it might not be that bad. China is not back where it was in 2009.
The country may be in “mini-panic” mode, but it’s not in “get to the emergency room right now” mode.
Investors around the world recognize this. It’s why there isn’t a major market sell-off today like there was in August.
…
“The Communist Party in China values stability above all else.”
I believe that they also value “saving face”
yet we still let them trade fake Yuan for real US property.
Not really–we let them trade fake Yuan for fake US dollars, which are exchanged for real US property.
it’s all dumb.borrowed.money Rental_Fraud.
Does anyone believe our CPI and BLS inflation & unemployment numbers? (Aside from the dolts who believed a Soros-backed candidate would bring “Hope and change we can believe in.”)
Perhaps more than “believed’ there was irrational hope that things would change. Now that has been dashed, I expect record low voter turnout in 2016 as the masses accept that no matter who they vote for, they’ll get shafted.
Ben, when are you going to repent for being such a scare-monger?
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/20/why-mainstream-economists-deny-housing-bubbles-until-after-they-implode-which-they-always-do/
Economists are only historians. It isn’t a bubble for them until after it collapses.
“Nobody saw it coming.” — Every mainstream/captured economist on the planet after 1) the tech bubble bust; 2) the housing bubble bust; and 3) the pending Ponzi market/housing bubble bust.
There’s never been a better time to buy housing in Los Angeles (or any place).
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2015/10/20/nasa-gives-99-percent-probability-of-5-0-earthquake-in-la/
Pfttt! A 5.0 is nothing. A 5.0 will scare the out of state rubes, though.
How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/just-10-youre-wealthier-25-americans
Taxpayers, get ready to ante up for “fundamemental transformation.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3282096/DANIEL-JOHNSON-know-true-cost-liberal-grandstanding.html
Chinese bagholders who bought into the dead cat bounce may soon realize their error.
By the way, dead cats don’t actually bounce. Don’t ask me how I know this.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-stocks-rise-but-other-asia-stocks-struggle-after-weak-us-lead-2015-10-21
Jeb Bush = crony capitalism, personified. But since 95% of the ‘Murican electorate have given their explicit sanction to crony capitalism by voting for pro-bailout Wall Street water carriers, i.e. Obama, McCain, and Romney, HillaryJeb should be a shoo-in.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/20/nyt-bush-bucks-reveals-half-of-jebs-wealth-comes-from-companies-he-gave-lucrative-deals-as-governor/
Another housing red flag.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/new-homebuilder-report-large-homebuilder-with-declining-unit-sales/
Will be bail these guys out, too?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mideast-countries-face-1-trillion-budget-shortfall-if-oil-keeps-falling-imf-official-2015-10-21
As long as the world accepts Yellens magic printing press as the world’s reserve currency, who knows?
Global trade is collapsing. How many “worst since Lehman” headlines before the next crash hits our Ponzi markets?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/global-trade-is-collapsing-as-the-worldwide-economic-recession-deepens
If your job depended on steel, coal, oil, agriculture, mining or lending to the aforesaid, you might suspect that a crash has already been in progress for some time.
I can’t even get my mind around numbers like $1.5 quadrillion in derivatives exposures.
http://kingworldnews.com/1-5-quadrillion-derivatives-bomb-and-the-great-financial-disaster/
That’s a lot of overpriced houses in Vancouver, Sidney, London and Silly Valley.
How long before Obama dumps $1.3 trillion in student loans on taxpayers because “It’s the right thing to do!” (and picks up FSA entitlement voters).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-student-loan-borrowers-should-pay-attention-to-these-two-court-cases-2015-10-21
I’m feeling a bit low today. My Zillow is down -5.5% since it peaked in July.
Have you tried Viagra or an alternative herbal remedy?
Excessive drinking of the koolaid can result in loss of performance.
LOL. Yeah, that’s it, a Home Erection Loan. That’ll translate my wealth effect into cash I can spend! Schwing!
Better known as a Diesel F-350 with all the options.
And not a buyer in sight for a fraction of what you have in it.
A 23-year-old called Brandon is blogging about saving money by living in a van in Google’s car park.
In Thoughts from Inside the Box, he writes about sleeping inside a large truck and using the employee gym to shower in the mornings.
He claims that if he rented a “really cheap apartment” in the San Francisco Bay Area, it would be about $1,000 (£650) a month minimum.
Over four years he says he’d spend at least $48,000 (£31,000) just on rent.
After some maths, where he takes into account the $10,000 he spent on buying his truck and the cost of petrol for when he occasionally drives it, he says he could save about $33,000 (£21,000) over four years.
He describes that amount as “a super conservative estimate”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/34589969/google-worker-23-living-in-van-in-staff-car-park-to-save-money
I thought google staff where all minted.
I should point out that the term “minted” in my part of the world means
minted
has a lot of money
he is so minted
I must admit I had no idea it could also mean
A slang term to describe being stoned. Used in areas where you’re not meant to be you can say your minted and only some people will know what you’re talking about. Alongside this the word mints is used as slang for weed.
The English language ever evolving and words can mean so many things.
Hatfield and the North.
“I thought google staff where all minted.”
Only if their stock options work out. Sure, they get decent pay, but between taxes and silly valley rents it can get eaten up fast.
Googlers no longer get options. They get stock grants. The option grants generally stopped 5+ years ago.
So, if they sell along the way, it boosts their income (which many do). If they don’t, they simply accumulate stock, which could go up or down, but at the time of any vesting, they need to pay ordinary income tax on the market value of the stock on the day of vesting.
The Googlers who are “minted” were either Pre-IPO, or worked their shortly after the IPO.
I know people who have been at Google for nearly a decade, and they’re doing just fine, but I wouldn’t consider them “minted”.
I know other people at Google who were there pre-IPO, and they are definitely “minted”.
I work for a post IPO company and it’s similar. Grants are like salary but you have to wait for them. If I could find the right job in the area I could probably make more than the salary + grants, but the company treats us well. Grant + salary probably puts me in line with the median household income in the area, which means a house with basement for arcade is like 5.5 times income or something. Of course if stock market tanks grant worth lots less, what are the odds of that happening?
“Of course if stock market tanks grant worth lots less, what are the odds of that happening?”
The way I understand it, grants can be an annual thing. So, while the value of your prior grants go down, you would get more shares granted based on the lower stock price in future. If there is a recovery in the stock, you might actually do better in time.
That said, it’s far from a stable income on which to base your lifestyle.
Today’s relevant headline in the main stream media……
“Muslim student arrested for homemade clock in Texas moving to Qatar”
the part they forgot to add?
To become a terrorist.
Neocons like William Kristol love clock boy.
The actual circumstances of his show and tell school project and subsequent arrest are irrelevant to the neocon narrative scripted to rally the base.
Brown skin? Check.
Terrorist sounding name? Check.
And now moving to a muslim country? Check.
Had his father been prevented from living in in the United States, by a ban on all immigration from muslim countries, clock boy would never have been a story.
Instead, he becomes another narrative, something for the stupid f*ing goyim to get angry about, as they continue to elect a Congress that controls a $600,000,000,000+ a year war machine, that wants to bomb, that needs to bomb, that knows nothing beyond bombing.
Neocons gonna neocon.
But, but, but … in the “Navy, a force for good” TV ads, they show Naval staff providing free healthcare to brown children and performing other good deeds. The only thing those bombers drop are boxes of Pop Tarts and Hershey bars. Right?
And this tid bit from Chicago -
Emanuel seeks to hike fines for not shoveling snow…..
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-shoveling-fine-increase-met-20151020-story.html
Desperate is as desperate does…
Not a bad idea, actually.
Is oil on track to $80/bbl by December 2015, as one of our most prolific former posters frequently assured us not long ago?
Nope.
Nope…
Futures Movers
Oil drops as crude supplies jump and oil producers meet
Published: Oct 21, 2015 11:11 a.m. ET
Oil producers meet in Vienna to discuss low oil prices
AFP/Getty Images
By Myra P. Saefong
Markets/commodities reporter
Biman Mukherji
Georgi Kantchev
Oil futures dropped toward $45 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. government data revealed a jump in weekly crude supplies, just as some of the world’s top crude producers meet in Vienna to discuss ways to support prices.
At the special meeting, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and nonmembers such as Russia and Mexico discussed the fall in oil prices, which have tumbled by more 50% since last summer. Analysts, however, hadn’t expected the summit to result in any crude-oil production cuts.
December West Texas Intermediate crude (CLZ5, -2.01%) fell $1.04, or 2.3%, to $45.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was trading around $45.12 before the supply data. Brent crude (LCOZ5, -1.35%) declined by 74 cents, or 1.5%, to $47.97 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an increase of eight million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Oct. 16. Analysts polled by Platts expected supplies to be up by 2.7 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute Tuesday said inventories rose 7.1 million barrels.
“The crude inventory data has shown once again that the refinery maintenance is heavily influencing the…glut of supply,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
Refinery utilization edged up from 86% a week earlier, but remained low at 86.4%, EIA data showed. Total oil production, meanwhile, was unchanged at about 9.1 million barrels a day.
“As crude oil trades at its lowest levels since the beginning of the month, we expect this [supply] build to put further pressure on prices, with more builds looming during refinery maintenance season,” said John Macaluso, an analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors.
…
The medium term trends appear to still be intact however. Less drilling, production declining, etc.
Eventually, supply will shrink to a point where prices go back up to support more drilling/pumping.
When will that be? Your guess is as good as mine. I’ve made investments assuming it would take 3-5 years…2.5 to 4.5 years from now.
Crude and retail fuel prices have a long way to fall. A very long way to fall.
Another day of rage…… CRATER RAGE!!!
http://goo.gl/TsA4DM
The power of cheap money at work with WD buying Sandisk… Out of $19B in acquisition price, $18.4B was from debt.
Out of $19B in acquisition price, $18.4B was from debt ??
If I could borrow at the rates they do I would back the truck up and load up also…
I wonder if there will be any antitrust issues.
Only in a nation of laws.
Hot sector and cheap money = stock price inflation = silly valley home inflation. Now you can download cat videos twice as fast !!
Chipmaker Microsemi Corp offered to buy PMC-Sierra Inc for about $2.2 billion, trumping a $2 billion offer from Skyworks Solutions Inc, to expand its offerings for telecom, data center and cloud customers.
PMC-Sierra shares rose as much as 15 percent to $11.73 on Monday, above Microsemi’s offer price of $11.50.
Microsemi makes chip equipment and provides software for cloud data. The company has been trying to build up its communications business through a series of acquisitions at a time when an explosion of data from mobile devices has greatly boosted the need for efficient storage hubs.
“The addition of PMC’s leading storage business as well as its highly complementary communications business furthers our goal to diversify our revenue stream and product offerings,” Microsemi’s Chief Strategy Officer Steve Litchfield said on a conference call.
Microsemi said the total value of the deal was $2.4 billion.
Warmist Warming Wednesday:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/climate-change-slams-global-economy-in-new-study-from-stanford-and-berkeley
Warmists gonna warm:
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/257590-september-2015-breaks-temperature-record
http://www.zillow.com/odessa-tx/home-values/
midland & odessa- Zillow is mum ,but now calling ND negative
“You’d have to have rocks in your head to buy a house at these prices.”
Or at any price in the last 15 years.
today lesson; NAFTA
Following diplomatic negotiations dating back to 1990 among the three nations, U.S. President George H. W. Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Mexican President Carlos Salinas, each responsible for spearheading and promoting the agreement, ceremonially signed the agreement in their respective capitals on December 17, 1992.[5] The signed agreement then needed to be ratified by each nation’s legislative or parliamentary branch.
After much consideration and emotional discussion, the House of Representatives passed the North American Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act on November 17, 1993, 234-200. The agreement’s supporters included 132 Republicans and 102 Democrats. The bill passed the Senate on November 20, 1993, 61-38.[6] Senate supporters were 34 Republicans and 27 Democrats. Clinton signed it into law on December 8, 1993; the agreement went into effect on January 1, 1994.[7][8] Cli
New topic for Trump to bring up, as to why Bush is bad for the USA.
In 1993, Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate.
It’s not like the Republicans controlled both chambers and voted in favor of something that was vehemently opposed by the other side, and then signed into law by a Republican President.
Then they would definitely own the law and all it’s ramifications. And no matter what text you try to bold, or how you try to spin it, NAFTA is owned by Bush, Clinton, and the 103rd Congress.
This post above shows Lola is just a silly troll to be ignored. Seriously, Bill Clinton couldn’t have done anything to stop NAFTA if he wanted to? Ridiculous. He was fully onboard just lie the rest. It drives LoLa and her Hillary cronies crazy, but thems the facts.
December 1993 he signed it? So he had longer to stop it (with the stroke of a pen) than Bush did to stop 9/11?
Well, since Biden announced he’s not running today, it’s Hillary vs. . . . I used to say Jeb, but now I don’t know. Are the PTB going to pull a Perot on Trump to knock him down in the polls?
Falling housing prices my friend. Falling housing prices.
Seattle, WA Housing Prices Plummet 19%
http://www.zillow.com/ballard-seattle-wa/home-values/
Wrong as usual, HA:
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2015/10/21/seattle-housing-market-hotter-than-ever-in-2015/
It’s reality my friend. Boots on the ground data.
You’re in SFO - so no. Prices here are still going up, with people still paying more than asking. I check the county property records at least once a week on everything that sells in my neighborhood.
ehhh… not really. Not at all.
Remember…..Housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling.
See for yourself.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qRBemWyulY0/VNGrDCBXzOI/AAAAAAAAiMA/jdA2RQkiNDc/s1600/MBAFeb42014.PNG
Hillary better hope that Webb doesn’t run as an independent. That would be interesting…
Three Dog Night Singer Cory Wells Dies
By Joe Lynch | October 21, 2015 3:28 PM EDT
Cory Wells of Three Dog Night — one of the biggest rock bands of the early ’70s — passed away on Tuesday, Oct. 20, his bandmates confirmed in a press release. He was 74 years old, according to the press release.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff8N2iC4oB8 - 228k -
Thanks for posting, jeff. Here’s my favorite Cory Wells performance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c43YWd1UcK8
Try a Little Tenderness. Depression song. Aw, shoot, dang, makes me all emotional.
The neo-cons must be so proud.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrian-aid-worker-breaks-down-in-cnn-interview-what-wrong-have-we-done-a6702306.html
Using my uncanny ability to see into the future, I hereby predict the ECB (and every other central bank) will print more trillions in stimulus.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-ecbs-decision-could-mean-for-european-bonds-2015-10-21
Taxpayers, get ready to bail out Puerto Rico.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/obama-seeks-broad-bankruptcy-power-for-puerto-rico-amid-crisis
Our so-faux “recovery.”
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/10/21/still-backstopping-the-banks-with-public-money/
Al Sharpton is coming to town tomorrow for a peaceful protest.
Family of Florida musician killed by police wants answers
5 hours ago
From the section US & Canada
The family of a Florida musician killed by a police officer has urged authorities to release more information about the case.
Corey Jones was fatally shot early on Sunday after his car broke down on a motorway ramp in Palm Beach Gardens.
Officer Nouman Raja was on duty but not in uniform when he approached Jones’ car on the dark stretch of road.
Police said Officer Raja was “suddenly confronted by an armed subject” and fatally wounded the 31-year-old Jones.
“It would be premature to say we have all the facts and speculate as to what took place based on unconfirmed accounts,” Palm Beach Gardens Police Chief Stephen Stepp said on Wednesday.
Jones, a drummer who worked as a public housing inspector, was returning home after performing at a local bar when his car broke down, his family said.
Police said they recovered a handgun at the scene. Records show Jones purchased the weapon legally a few days before the incident.
Jones did not have a criminal record and had been a volunteer for My Brother’s Keeper, an organisation for black youth.
Officer Raja’s car was not equipped with a dashboard camera and he was not wearing a body camera, police said.
He has been placed on administrative leave while the department investigates the shooting.
Jones’ death is one of several cases under scrutiny in the US, in which a black person has died during an arrest or while in police custody.
The state’s legislative black caucus called on the governor to launch an independent investigation by the state law enforcement agency.
Jones’ family has hired prominent civil rights lawyer Benjamin Crump who has represented the family of Trayvon Martin among others.
Civil rights activists - including the Reverend Al Sharpton - are planning a rally outside Palm Beach Gardens Police Department on Thursday.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34599556 - 143k -