October 27, 2015

Bits Bucket for October 27, 2015

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 01:24:03

October is almost over, with nary a sign of stock market collapse (phew!).

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 01:43:06

Treasuries Hold Gain as Fed Seen Keeping Rate After China Cut
Wes Goodman
October 26, 2015 — 9:01 PM CDT Updated on October 27, 2015 — 2:00 AM CDT
- Durable-goods orders fell for second month, survey projects
- ‘We have been buying quite a bit:’ Capital Asset’s Sugimoto

Treasuries held a gain on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low at a two-day meeting that starts Tuesday, after China’s decision last week to cut borrowing costs highlighted risks to the biggest economies.

Signs of slowing U.S. growth are driving demand for government securities, with economists forecasting a report today will show durable-goods orders fell for a second month in September. New home sales dropped to the lowest level since November, data showed Monday. The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark lending rate on Friday. A decline in Asian shares helped boost demand for the safest assets.

“We have been buying quite a bit” in the Treasury market, said Toshifumi Sugimoto, the chief investment officer in Tokyo at Capital Asset Management, which has $300 million in assets. “The U.S. economy is mixed. The Fed looks like it’s postponing the interest-rate hike.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 05:26:05

“We have been buying quite a bit. ”

Aren’t Treasurys the go-to investment when you anticipate a crash ahead?

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 10:24:06

If u expected a robust economy wouldn’t u be dumping bonds and buying stocks?

Seems like folks have been buying treasuries and keeping prices high as the stock market has made miraculous moves.

You would have thought people would have dumped those bonds and bought stocks.

One thing to keep in mind is that a stock market crash would get people bidding bonds up and keeping rates low.

Who is doing all the bond buying at these low rates when they could get better returns throwing darts in the stock market?

Treasury yields would be higher if people had confidence in the economy and stocks. Its like the stock market is seeing something great in the economy while the treasury market is in panic mode. It seems pretty rigged to me.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 11:09:19

There is weak demand for investment capital. People want safety for their money.

There is a lot of nervousness still out there…The CEO of Prologis said it in their last conference call–the memories of the downturn are still fresh in people’s minds–and that is impacting the willingness to take risk.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 11:44:20

If people really want safety why are they buying overpriced stocks like amzn @ a 850 P/E ratio?

I agree people still dont believe in this recovery, never have.

They feel it is all rigged, total loss of confidence in valuations.

Why buy stocks now when they are 200-300% higher?

So which market has it all wrong, stocks or bonds?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 12:02:39

“There is weak demand for investment capital. People want safety for their money.”

It is a natural consequence of prolonged ZIRP to see high asset prices and low risk premiums. Too much plunge protection has sucked future returns on risk assets down the flusher.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 13:06:19

“It is a natural consequence of prolonged ZIRP to see high asset prices and low risk premiums. Too much plunge protection has sucked future returns on risk assets down the flusher.”

But with high asset prices, it should encourage capital investment to create more of those assets that can then be sold.

A phrase “build to core” has come to the forefront in real estate. It means build a nice new building and sell for today’s high prices. However, there are only a few people doing this (very selectively).

The only place that development has ramped up is apartments.

What this means is that many people don’t believe that the high asset prices are here to stay. This is distinctly different than the last two bubble’s I’ve experienced, when the talk was about about paradigm shifts and permanently high plateaus, not about artificially high asset prices.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 01:55:38

Marketwatch dot com
Economic Report
Philly Fed, Empire State both show grim conditions in manufacturing
By Greg Robb
Published: Oct 15, 2015 11:58 a.m. ET
Strong dollar weighing on factory sector
Workers at a modular home factory in Wingdale, NY

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Two regional manufacturing gauges painted an identical picture in October with both showing a sharp slowing in the industrial sector in the Northeast.

The Empire State manufacturing index, which measures conditions in the New York area, stayed in deep negative territory for the third month in a row for the first time since the depths of the Great Recession.

At the other end of the New Jersey Turnpike, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index remained in negative territory for the second straight month.

Readings below zero on both indexes indicate deteriorating conditions.

U.S. manufacturing has been struggling since last fall as the strong dollar has made products less competitive in the global market. While effects of the strong dollar in 2014 is still weighing on the sector, the dollar has risen sharply against several currencies since August due to concerns about the health of emerging markets.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released Wednesday, reported activity in the factory sector from mid-August until October has been restrained by this new jump in the currency’s foreign exchange value.

“Manufacturing still stinks. This is not news,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The Empire Index has fallen from a high of 27.4 in September 2014 to negative 11.4 in October.

The Philadelphia index hit a high of 40.2 last November and has dropped to negative 4.5.

This pattern has been followed across the country. The national Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index has slowed from a high of 58.1% in August 2014 to 50.2% in September.

Derek Lindsey, economist at BNP Paribas, said the two reports suggest that the ISM will fall below 50 for the first time since November 2012.

Readings below 50 on the ISM index indicate contraction of activity.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 05:55:07

The fact that demand continues to crater as a result of grossly inflated prices is no surprise.

Remember… Grossly inflated prices simply collapses demand. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

Comment by Karen
2015-10-27 10:05:17

People forgot that grossly inflated prices collapse demand because, in the midst of a Ponzi scheme, rising and ever-higher prices seem to signal bigger profits ahead (at least to those who don’t have their eyes open.)

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Comment by taxpayers
2015-10-27 12:11:09

see 1921 for results
go gov tinkering= boom
what we’re doing now is turning Japanese

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 02:03:01

Were the Benghazi hearings part of a vast Republican conspiracy to drive down Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 02:04:59

Marketwatch dot com
Brett Arends’s ROI
Opinion: Hillary Clinton will be our next president — you can bet on it
By Brett Arends
Published: Oct 26, 2015 10:30 a.m. ET
The smart money is now backing the FLOTUS for POTUS
Getty Images/ Chip Somodevilla
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton

Boy, it’s a lucky thing those Republicans really held Hillary Clinton’s feet to the fire about “Benghazi” last week.

Before the hearings, the bookmakers were giving Hillary a 44% chance of becoming the 45th president of the United States.

Following Hillary’s 11-hour grilling on live TV, they’re putting her chance at … er … 50%.

That’s some work.

At this stage, anyone wanting to place a bet on her winning the White House can get no odds better than even, according to bookmakers’ websites.

Anything can happen in this life, and nothing is completely certain. But I’d still bet on her at those odds — or even considerably shorter. At this stage, Hillary is starting to look like what gamblers call a “racing certainty.”

It’s only a few weeks since Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy basically admitted to Sean Hannity that the Benghazi committee’s goal was to drive down Hillary’s poll numbers. Oops.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 05:56:20

Today I am going to stick my fingers in my ears and say La La La La La La La while I think good thoughts of Hillary.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 10:45:45


Failed on hearings
Failed to find Speaker
Gave us 14 yrs Bush War
Failed on immigration
failed on the economy
voted for ACA
spend, spend, spend…..

Jeb 2016!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 16:24:53


Failed on deficit
Failed on debt
Failed on housing
Failed on unemployment
Borrow borrow borrow

Hitlery 2016

See how that works Lola?

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Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 18:28:30

Failed on deficit - huh? see GDP
Failed on debt - See gpd
Failed on housing - see increase over last 3 yrs
Failed on unemployment - 5.15 my boy
Borrow borrow borrow - pay your bills! Bush W@r is $$$trilS

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 18:57:46

Failed on deficit- See deficit
Failed on debt-see debt
failed on housing-see collapsing demand
failed on unemployment-at 37 year high

borrow borrow borrow- Obama fraud is pandemic

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 02:06:36

Is the RNC secretly working behind the scenes to ensure yet another Democratic presidency?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 04:09:02

The Establishment GOP is indistinguishable from the Democrats. Both parties are corrupt and venal to the core. Both are crony capitalists. Both are in bed with Wall Street and the TBTF banks. Since both are bought and paid for by oligarchs like Soros and Adelson, they go along with any neo-con adventurism their bankrollers order them to support. Both are pro-open borders. So we really only have the Republicrat duopoly.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 07:34:08


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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 08:05:20


Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 10:31:12


Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 11:53:27

A vote for a democrat in my neighborhood is just a vote against a neo-con.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 12:55:26

A vote for a con man around here is a vote against the other con.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 11:42:56

Except only one party swore to make Obama a one term president and not cooperate at the expense of the people.

5 vetos in 7 yrs

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Comment by scdave
2015-10-27 12:58:44

and not cooperate at the expense of the people ??

They had more important things to do like, 57 different votes on repealing Obamacare and the Bengansi hearings…

Comment by ClowardAndPiven
2015-10-27 14:51:11

The establishment of both parties are Globalist Progressives bent on growing the entitlement system and eventually collapsing the economy through never ending immigration.


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Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 15:16:34

That sounds unlikely.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-10-27 16:51:43

“That sounds unlikely.”

But it damn sure looks real.

Nancy Pelosi Visits Illegal Aliens at the Border:

I Wish I Could ‘Take Them Home’

June 28, 2014

by Brian Hayes| Top Right News

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi visited the Texas border where she suggested that the tens of thousands of illegal aliens encamped there are as “American” as U.S. citizens, and wished she could “take home” the unaccompanied minors there.

At a press conference from the Rio Grande Valley, Pelosi (D-CA) discussed her tour of a border holding facility and addressed the humanitarian crisis of thousands unaccompanied minors flooding across the U.S.-Mexico border. Pelosi said those illegal border crossers deserved our “respect“, and urged America to see this as not a “crisis” but an “opportunity.”

“We are all Americans — north and south in this hemisphere”

Pelosi then bizarrely said she wished she could simply “take home” the thousands of minors temporarily housed in the overburden facilities.

What’s stopping her? After all, Pelosi and her husband are worth upwards of $100 million, with $42 million in real estate holdings covering hundreds of acres, including a massive $5 million vineyard (below).

toprightnews.com/nancy-pelosi-illegal-aliens-border-wish-take-home/ - 214k -

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 16:55:45

Why would she want to “collapse” the economy?

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 18:30:11


I’ve seen her flying home in the copter when I was there wine tasting. Success!!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 18:35:39


Yeah, you’re a real winner:

‘I will keep breeding as much as possible, creating more welfare recipients’

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 18:37:25

I’ve seen her flying home in the copter when I was there wine tasting.

That sounds like fun. It probably wouldn’t be possible in a collapsed economy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 18:46:07

‘That sounds like fun. It probably wouldn’t be possible in a collapsed economy.’

‘As a member of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 20, 2004, Bernanke gave a speech in which he postulated that we are in a new era called the Great Moderation, where modern macroeconomic policy has decreased the volatility of the business cycle to the point that it should no longer be a central issue in economics.’

‘On February 1, 2006, Bernanke began a fourteen-year term as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and a four-year term as chairman (after having been nominated by President Bush in late 2005).[31][32] By virtue of the chairmanship, he sat on the Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversees the Troubled Asset Relief Program. He also served as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System’s principal monetary policy making body.’

‘He referred to a statement made by Milton Friedman about using a “helicopter drop” of money into the economy to fight deflation. Bernanke’s critics have since referred to him as “Helicopter Ben” or to his “helicopter printing press.” In a footnote to his speech, Bernanke noted that “people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government’s debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation.”


We’ll see how you Bernanke lovers stand up to what’s to come. I’d bet you’ll be vilifying this Republican to the day you die.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-10-27 19:12:49

If you collect enough of his quotes, he’s almost incoherent. The difference between what his doctrine would predict, and reality, becomes embarrassing. Same with Greenspan. Somebody tell me again why we hung on their every utterance and described them with words like “maestro” and “hero.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 19:27:24

Or his new book, Courageous! The press has a central bank fetish. They allow these guys to critique themselves, when what they’ve done hasn’t been tested.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 02:21:16

It seems like the Democratic party entered October ahead in the presidential sweepstakes, and is set to leave with an even wider lead.

And the Democrats I know claim they will back Bernie.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 05:58:27

Bernie is and always has been a shill for Hillary in this election, to make her able to appeal to leftist voters while not looking quite so left in comparison. When DA Boyz press the button he drops out.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-10-27 06:32:59

This is correct.

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Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:15:33

No it’s not correct. oooooh, everything’s a conspiracy! Bernie is not only registered as an Independent, he is independent. His votes as senator frequently diverge from the mainstream Dem party frequently. He only takes money from small donors. He’s not a shill for anybody.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-10-27 10:30:48

They’ve obviously implanted a mind control device in your head.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 13:44:46

And remember, all the big spending and big gov stuff the GOP has done over the last 40 yrs is either because they were fooled by the DEMs or they are RINOs.

Jeb 2016!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 19:16:57

Everyone has had enough of Barney Saunders psycho babble.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-10-27 10:28:58

The people that call themselves republicans aren’t that smart. This is just another shrieking tree monkey hissyfit that Hillary is using to her advantage.

Comment by fries with that?
2015-10-27 02:46:18

There’s an outstanding youtube video on the housing bubble in Silicon Valley entitled: “Million Dollar Shack: Trapped in Silicon Valley’s Housing Bubble”


It covers the effects of insane prices (over $1.5 million for a “typical” single-family home) on long-time residents and small businesses. It also explores the consequences of investors from mainland China buying up residential real estate.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-10-27 10:11:12

I’ve just started watching that. The first portion features a smarmy realtor predicting (surprise!) that house prices in Silicon Valley will only go up, and a Mercedes tour bus filled with eager moneybags mainland Chinese looking at a tract house priced at $1.888 million and condos near I-280 with asbestos insulation.

Our hideous political and economic leadership has no interest whatsoever in preventing this distortion. Indeed, it celebrates it, as proof of its worth, wisdom and superior judgment. When I read Ben’s post last weekend on Bernanke’s defensive remarks I about lost my s__t.

Comment by Bluto
2015-10-27 10:58:06

Thanks, very interesting…and very sad as a S.F./Bay Area native like the author, like her remember when the area was affordable for middle class and even blue collar people (I moved away 20 years ago)
That realtor is so slimy he is almost a caricature for his sleazy occupation…can only hope that some of what he said costs him.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2015-10-27 12:40:19

The lady should squat in the foreign investors house, and make a documentary about that.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-10-27 14:10:54

There’s one scene where she peeks over a fence at the back yard of a neighborhood house with an overgrown yard allegedly purchased by an absentee Chinese “investor.” There’s another scene featuring the guy who erected a camping tent on his property and listed the tent on AirBnb. The city shut him down, but he’s still receiving private inquiries.

If I lived there, I would leave. According to the piece, a lot of people are. The problem, not a new one, is the equity wave phenomenon, where displaced Californians drive up housing prices wherever they relocate.

The trophy home at the end is like the techie version of a drug-kingpin house, filled with needless show-off items that will be used rarely if at all. A built-in latte maker? A lap pool in the living room? Computer controls for the shower? All that’s missing is a private zoo, like Escobar had.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-10-27 03:09:08

Rocklin, CA Housing Craters; Down 5% YoY And Falling


Comment by Ryan
2015-10-27 03:26:39

I’m excited to see who the foolish electorate bring to power next and then watch them blame each other when things aren’t as rosy as the campaign promises.

Hillary/Republican - More war, more deficit spending
Bernie - More handouts, more deficit spending

It doesn’t get old, really. It’s just a shame that the public lacks the self-awareness to realize that they are the actual problem because they continue to vote.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 04:10:22

95% of the electorate are stupid. They continue to prove that election after election. This one will be no different.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 05:05:47

People who voted for George W Bush, Obama, McCain, or Romney, and/or intend to vote for HillaryJeb or one of the other Establishment GOP clown car occupants, have self-identified as retards and for the good of society should voluntarily sit out all future elections.

Yes, this means you.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 07:48:34

Hillary v. Trump.

I’ll take it.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 08:08:14

Hard to imagine Bill as the First Lady.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:21:53

Hillary v. Trump

Trump will not be the nominee. The big money/Chambr of Comm will ensure that. Nor will Carson, because he is not electable (he will soon be exposed as a lightweight, as he has ZERO experience running anything in government or business). My money is on Rubio as the nominee.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 09:05:31

Hard to imagine Bill as the First Lady.

I may be going out on a limb here, but it probably wouldn’t be the first time Bill wore women’s panties.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 10:43:30

Bile Clintoon a Lola? That explains Lola’s starry-eyed Clintoon worship.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 05:14:16

When you’re forced to choose between the lesser of two evils, you’ve already lost.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 06:00:23

There is someone who is speaking out against globalists, illegal immigration and Rosie O’Donnell.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:25:25

There’s also a fraudulent, fake candidate who uses the language of the common man and pretends to care about the common man, but in reality is a part of and highly sympathetic to the oligarchy. He’s an insincere Trojan Horse candidate who will act like a turbocharger for the 1% power cabal once in office.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 09:27:32

‘Trump will not be the nominee. The big money/Chambr of Comm will ensure that…in reality is a part of and highly sympathetic to the oligarchy’

Behold the cynicism of the American Except-ism. Anyone can be elected, Except ->. Yes, this citizen is a bonafide example of wallowing in our limitations, smugly confident that the 2 party system will not allow The Nominee (we all know there’s only one) to be anyone from outside the conspiracy to be on the ballot, while declaring one who seemingly challenges the conspiracy to be a part of the conspiracy!

Who are these men? Why they are the 1 percent! The oligarchs, the chamber of commerce, the star chamber. Always there but hidden, unbeatable, illuminated but hidden by darkness. Without them our lives would cease to be, or at the least reduced to eating gruel topped with maggots. If it weren’t for their firm but vicious grasp on the tiller of societal ship, we’d be lost! But good citizens, WPA doesn’t come to praise our masters, but to remind us how inevitable it is that we have masters. To once again sink all hope of escaping them, mired as we are in the eternal wrestling match with our neighbor.

So don’t despair; we have no choice! Don’t dare to consider that things might be different or, (gasp) better. Your fate is sealed, nothing you can do but complain. And complain we will, til the cows come home! But we won’t do anything.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 09:59:29

Just call ‘em like I see ‘em: we have legalized bribery in this country and money determines who the party nominees are. Thanks Citizens United. My complaint is not partisan: the same forces that will exclude Trump from the ballot are the same forces that will exclude Sanders.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 10:40:24

Why do we never get an answer
When we’re knocking at the door
With a thousand million questions
About hate and death and war?

But in the grey of the morning
My mind becomes confused
Between the dead and the sleeping
And the road that I must choose.

It’s not the way that you say it
When you do those things to me.
It’s more the way that you mean it
When you tell me what will be.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 17:46:54

Trump v. Hillary scares them. Hillary has no populist appeal.

Comment by Dale
2015-10-27 08:37:32

We will be forced to take the evil of two lessers.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-10-27 10:50:41

Yup. I’m 99% convinced (as much as I don’t like it) that Hillary will be our next prez.

Jeb fell over and broke before topping the wall, and all the Chamber’s Commerces couldn’t put him back together again.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 14:01:26

I believe Hillary will be our next prez too. Which says something about how broken our moral compass has become.

God help any Hillary voter who seeks out my help, post-collapse.

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-10-27 06:31:32

stupid and retarded at the same time..

U.S. Plans to Sell Down Strategic Oil Reserve to Raise Cash

The Energy Department, which oversees the reserve, says on average the U.S. paid about $29.70 a barrel for the oil. But after adjusting for inflation and other items, the average cost rises to $74 a barrel,


Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 08:09:45

Buy high and sell low. That’s why it’s called “strategic”.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:18:08

Bernie - More handouts, more deficit spending

Assuming Bernie had a cooperative Congress, if we adopted the planks of his platform, the middle class would grow again, stimulating the economy to such a degree that tax revenues would go up and deficits would go down.

Comment by Hi-Z
2015-10-27 13:13:23

While you preach with abandon, your logic is underwhelming.

Comment by frankie
2015-10-27 04:08:14

Housing policy and Virginia Woolf might not seem immediately obvious bedfellows but the writer, born during the Victorian era, may have struck on a solution to the almost Victorian levels of overcrowding plaguing British families today. Not everyone needs a room of their own to write fiction, but they certainly do to live happily, rather than simply survive.

In 2011, a student complained to me that he was struggling with university work because of a lack of sleep. Floating possible reasons for his insomnia – stress, depression, over-reliance on caffeine – I asked if he’d spoken to his GP. No, he said, the problem was the flatmate who shared his bed and snored too much. The “flat” he was paying £70 a week for turned out to be space in one of two double beds in a room in a three-bed property housing 12 people. The landlord had tried to convince another student to sleep on an inflatable mattress on the kitchen floor as well, but a rat problem had put them off.

Since then the London borough of Newham has implemented a landlord licensing scheme in an effort to banish Rachmanite practices such as this, as well as “beds in sheds”. But the practice continues, as the latest raids on overcrowded properties show. This week one east London councillor described the living standards being uncovered by investigators as a return to “Dickensian England”. But a swift search on Gumtree reveals a plethora of room and even bed shares available, from the West End to Barking. If you’re lucky, you’ll get space in a bunk bed. If not, you’ll be sharing a double bed with a complete stranger.


Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 06:02:59

I thought Air BNB and Uner fixed all this stuff. Just live on the outs,it’s and Uber your way in for class. It’s all so convenient.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-10-27 06:37:46

Third world countries have citizens who live this way.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-10-27 10:52:38

As do immigrants living in apartments across the street from Microsoft HQ.

Comment by frankie
2015-10-27 11:19:39

The 3rd world is a lot closer than we think

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Comment by taxpayers
2015-10-27 04:37:57

Join your local fcta.org is mine

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 06:04:25

Always vote “no” on any tax or bond measures.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 05:12:43

Seems like people who backed up the truck and bough risk assets after the crash have made a lot of money.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 05:38:42

Oh yeah. In fact a guy I know did that. I attended his retirement party, where he shared his secret with me: “You know how you’re not supposed to time the market? Well, I did.” I.e. he backed up the truck in March 2009, just as QE1 got rolling.

I should add the guy is single with no kids and lots of reallocable wealth available for high-stakes gambling.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 06:09:31

Did he just recover the wealth he lost in the downturn immediately preceding backing the truck up?

Yes, I see stock market and housing back up. But back up to where they were before for the most part, if that.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-10-27 06:18:28

adjust for inflation and nothing is back to 06

maybe silly valley

I’m off 8% on my crap shack in nominal $ vs 06

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 06:46:44

Also the guy who is retiring on a modest fixed income is a winner. The big Wall Street banks, and fry fish like Adan, hoarded the necessities of life and drove up everyone’s cost of living. Now prices are headed down and we’re all better off.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 09:15:58

The phrase “risk assets” is a terrible misnomer.

It makes investing sound like a bad idea.

Yet, if you owned “risk assets” consistently over the say, last 100 years, you did pretty well–regardless of whether you bought 100 years ago at a cyclical low or a cyclical high.

They should change the phrase to “volatile assets”.

If your time horizon is long enough, NOT owning “volatile assets” is riskier for your own savings.

And yes, I bought post-crash. I was heavy cash going into the recession and am heavily into the stock market now (almost entirely dividend paying stocks).

Should I sell some to take chips off the table? Well, I might if I was close to retirement, didn’t like the companies that I owned, they didn’t pay a dividend, or didn’t need to pay 30%+ to the government by selling.

Those stocks will ultimately be the base for my retirement income.

Comment by inchbyinch
2015-10-27 11:16:06

Rental Watch &/or Ben
Are you involved in 1031s? Have you ever worked for, or with a Qualified Intermediary?

Growing sector in your opinion(s)?

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 16:53:13

No, we don’t do 1031 exchanges and I don’t know any Qualified Intermediary.

Whenever I hear of a buyer who is in an exchange, I think “here’s someone with motivations other than price, they’ll pay the most”.

Ultimately, you can’t trade a partnership interest into another partnership, and since we own all of our real estate in partnerships, it makes it very hard to trade–you can play games by dropping the property into a TIC structure for a short period of time, and then trade into another property as a “tenant in common”, but that is not without risk of later scrutiny.

The bigger consideration for us is that our most powerful advantage is an ability to say “no” to an investment, and facing a time deadline on a 1031 makes it more likely that we’ll say “yes”. We’ll make worse investments pre-tax. And whether that trumps the tax benefit can’t be seen until you sell later.

Is 1031 growing? I don’t know.

Although if we are looking for tax revenues, 1031 exchanges are a big fat target.

I know people who’s strategy is to continue doing 1031 exchanges until they die and then their estate get the basis step-up, and while they may pay tax on their estate, they ultimately never pay tax on many years and many properties worth of investment gains–while sheltering income along the way through depreciation. A pretty sweet deal if you can get it.

Of course, there are so many fingers in the 1031 pie, it’s a loophole that will never be shut.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 17:34:06

“here’s someone with motivations other than price, they’ll pay the most”

Bzzz, wrong answer. If you have money left over after the purchase you have 6 months to put it into the properties (or you could just pay tax on what you don’t spend) so there is still every motivation to drive a hard bargain. Here’s what I did in 2014 when asked to manage one of these: I was given 30 days (15 had already expired). I drove like crazy over three states, scoured the internet, made 15 offers by the deadline. Then I got a multi-family under contract (after the usual ass-pounding, I mean haggling with the sellers). With the money I saved them, we got new AC units, painted, plumbing, etc and a double digit return.

A house I knew had an out-of-state owner had been cutting the price like crazy. I went in way low. He accepted. “What’s this?” I thought, knowing that if a seller isn’t hopping mad over an offer it’s too high. So in the inspection, I said, “this isn’t right, and that’s not right either, fix it or I walk.” Surprise, surprise, Mr LLC didn’t have the money to do the fixes. That’s alright Bud, I’ve estimated these repairs at this many thousands so just take that off the top and it’s a deal. He accepted, his UHS said afterward, “I thought you were going to make him give it to you.”

I’m relatively new to this real estate stuff, but I don’t understand all the baby cradling and thumb sucking. It’s business. The returns you will be proud of or regret for years are determined in that purchase window.

A QI is just a lawyer or CPA that’s familiar with the rules and handles the cash. They don’t do very much.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:50:26

My experience with 1031 exchanges are almost entirely as a seller of fixed-up commercial properties over the past 15-20 years.

And a disproportionate number of “high bidders” on properties we sell (especially long-term, NNN leased properties), come from 1031 money.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 17:59:55

They’re doing it all wrong. Why could I play hard-ball with these two sellers? Because I had 13 more identified in writing (the offer) by the deadline. It’s more work, but that’s what it takes. I could tell all 15 properties had a seller itching to deal because of one thing or the other.

Comment by Bluto
2015-10-27 10:40:49

FWIW I opted to cash out my pension when I retired in mid 2012, in part due to QE….the artificially low interest rates made the cashout waaay higher than it would have been prior to 2008. Rolled the cashout into an IRA and it has done well so far, do realize that could change quickly.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 05:17:20

25 MILLION excess, empty and defaulted houses CHECK

Collapsing housing demand at 20 year lows and falling CHECK

Falling housing prices CHECK

Housing prices inflated by 250% CHECK

Household formation at multi decade lows CHECK

Rampant housing fraud CHECK

A media corrupted by the housing industry CHECK

Population growth the lowest in US history CHECK

Immigration flat to slightly negative CHECK

Oh my word.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 13:20:16

I wonder what would happen to house prices if they kicked all the squatters not paying their mortgage out?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 15:00:13

We’d see herds of debt donkeys in the streets braying and fighting over a few Crater Taters.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 05:31:23

What’s up with oil prices? They seem determined to dig a hole to China. Not to suggest that I mind the affordable gasoline!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 05:46:18

I’ll be keeeeeeeeeeeyranking the t-stat all winter long. I love falling and affordable prices. And they’ll keep falling.

Comment by Fang Nu
2015-10-27 09:22:29

Logic dictates that you save the money, not crank the thermostat.
By cranking the thermostat you are no different than the folks who haven’t made a mortgage payment of $2000 for the last 25 months, yet have not a penny to spare….

How are you NOT them?

The idea of lower fuel prices should be to give you an added advantage, not keep yourself at the same debt ratio.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 10:09:37

Do you believe in life after debt?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 10:26:08


If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 11:59:11

Another day, another small but precipitous drop in the price of collapsing crude…

Marketwatch dot com
Futures Movers
Oil drops on planned sale of U.S. reserves
By Myra P. Saefong and Jenny Hsu
Published: Oct 27, 2015 11:59 a.m. ET
Natural-gas futures edge up from a 3-year low
Getty Images
Pump jacks pump petroleum from the ground in Germany in this 2014 photo.

Oil futures dropped on Tuesday, holding ground at a two-month low after the U.S. government announced plans to sell millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and as traders bet on a further weekly increase in crude supplies.

Natural-gas futures (NGX15, +1.99%) meanwhile, edged a bit higher but not before briefly dipping below $2 per million British thermal units. They suffered a nearly 10% drop on Monday to end at their lowest levels in three years amid ample supplies and a lack of weather-related demand.

December West Texas Intermediate crude (CLZ5, -2.55%) fell 93 cents, or 2.1%, to traded at $43.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A settlement around this level would be the lowest since Aug. 27. December Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange (LCOZ5, -1.98%) lost 70 cents, or 1.5%, to $46.84 a barrel.

Plans for a sale of oil from the SPR were included in government bill dated Monday. The sale would start in 2018 at an annual rate of five million barrels, rise to rise to eight million barrels in 2022 and then climb to 10 million by 2023 to total 58 million barrels by the end of the sale in 2025.

It is “amazing that 10 years ago, we were worried that the SPR wasn’t big enough to deter [supply] threats,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 05:47:29

Article linked from Google News for the Social Justice Warriors™

Too few transgender characters on TV, racial diversity increasing, GLAAD study finds:


Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 06:50:05

And because it’s Twofer Tuesday, this as reported by (Dianne Feinstein approved) real journalists at the Washington Post:


Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 07:59:55

Social Justice™ twofer Tuesday from Bloomberg dot com:



My progressive betters assure that this sort of surgical Tikkun Olam is somehow morally equivalent with the centuries of slavery, segregation, systemic violence, etc that black people in America were subjected to.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 09:54:36

Do you meet these people at casinos that provide free drinks?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 14:03:20

Most male Democrats are about as close to transgender as you can get without actually crossing the line.

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 05:54:09

FoxNewsHate rallies the base

Thousands of Israelis join lawsuit against Facebook over pages inciting violence:


The most obvious solution to this would be a ground invasion of Iran five minutes ago, but any random drone strike on some people with brown skin should suffice.

“They attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms”


Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 06:11:22

Twofer Tuesday from Breitbart dot com to rally the base:



Smaller government? Less regulations? Lower taxes? Nope, there won’t be any of that happening when Rubio/Cotton get elected. Because when 40% of the Republican primary electorate believe that the Earth is 6,000 years old, electoral outcomes will be decided by Rapture voters.

And to paraphrase Bob Dylan’s song about Jesus: “gotta bomb somebody”


Comment by taxpayers
2015-10-27 06:20:15

who and what r u for?

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 06:24:32

Twofer Tuesday from the Washington Times to rally the base

Obama weighing Pentagon suggestions for more ground troops in Iraq and Syria:


Daniel Pipes - a century of Palestinian hatred of Jews:


The Washington Times is published by the Unification Church, also known as the Moonies. The Drudge Report frequently links to Washington Times articles, which because it has a newsy sounding name (New York Times, Washington Post) and a newsy looking font, the window lickers and mouth breathers and knuckle draggers think it is a real newspaper.

And you call yourself a “Christian” when you read a Moonie rag?


Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 07:21:27

Bloomberg dot com rallies the base:

“Iran has extended its military support to Syria to include training, recruitment assistance and help to revamp its army, following a request from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a senior Iranian military official said.”


Bonus points if the neocon response to this includes a Neville Chamberlain reference.


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-10-27 05:59:52

Ventura, CA Housing Craters; Prices Fall 6% YoY


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-10-27 06:01:55

Doral FL Housing Craters; Down 18% YoY


Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 06:24:02

How long can uncle FED suppress interest rates so we dont go bankrupt?

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:32:49

The Fed doesn’t set interest rates, except for interbank lending rates. Interest rates for Treasuries, corporate bonds, muni bonds, mortgages, etc. all float on the open market. Most of the time the Fed will follow the market, not lead them.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 09:19:05


I heard an interview where the guy was arguing exactly the same thing.

He said that if a Central Bank keeps rates too low for too long, inflation is created.

He also said that if a Central Bank keeps rates too high for too long, deflation occurs.

Since we are seeing neither, he was arguing that the low interest rates were a symptom of a weak economy and weak demand for investment capital.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 09:31:31

who has been buying all the bonds? If central banks around the world weren’t buying treasuries rates would not be this low.

Yes the rates they keep talking about raising are the feds funds rate. The market supposedly sets long term interest rates.

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Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 10:14:42

I just pulled up a random T-bill auction. Yesterday’s auction for 6-month T-bill. $85 bil in bids chasing after $24 bil in bonds. The median yield of the winning bids is 0.13%.

They are competing to earn $1.30 per $1000 after a six-month wait. Amazing!

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 10:49:17

they should just buy amzn and facebook and flip them in 6 months.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-10-27 10:54:26

That’s what happens when the money supply is too large.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-10-27 12:19:22

“That’s what happens when the money supply is too large.”

Doesn’t the Fed conrol that? Plus interest rates?

And if they don’t control interest rates, then why all the jawboning on the timing of liftoff?

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 12:52:03

Do u think the fed is really going to prick the bubble they created? The recovery is based on this bubble.

There seems to be this notion floating around that rising rates are the only thing that will sink the stock market.This market seems controlled by greed and is totally out of whack with the economy. People are chasing yield in stocks cause its the only game in town besides being a landlord. Remember what happen to the folks who were last in the game of the housing bubble? Eventually the music stops.

If another country started unloading treasuries hand over fist, would the market be able to absorb them to keep rates low?
If not would the fed or another central bank print some more cash to mop them up to keep rates low? How about another round of QE to buys some bonds?

I wonder how much of the excess reserves , close to two trillion, at the fed are actually in cash or are they in bonds?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 13:30:45

Usually high inflation is the thing that indicates that the money supply is too large.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 09:45:59

weak demand for investment capital

It could also be a heavy supply of capital, otherwise known as the global savings glut.

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Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 11:46:55

Cant we blame Obama for low rates and low gas prices? I mean praise.

Comment by Max Power
2015-10-27 12:44:07

The Fed doesn’t “set rates”, but they intervene in the market to effectively set rates. Buying trillions of dollars of treasuries, bonds, mortgage backed securities, etc effectively lowers interest rates.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 15:21:20


buy bonds= fed getting bonds and putting cash into the system.

sell bonds = fed gets cash and dealers get bonds thus higher rates for less available money.

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Comment by cactus
2015-10-27 08:51:13

“How long can uncle FED suppress interest rates so we dont go bankrupt?”

Until the dollar loses reserve currency status

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 10:46:47

HOw long did Japan do it?

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 06:39:40

Article for the parents with neck tattoos of the obese kidz that I always see at my local King Soopers with their shopping carts full of high fructose death syrup and paying for it with their SNAP card

Study links sugar to conditions thst lead to diabetes, heart disease in children:


Note that the study “replaced those foods with pizza, baked potato chips, and other starchy processed foods.”

If you love your kidz, please give them Cheetos instead of candy.


Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 07:39:21

On the first of every month ask yourself to name your kid’s three best friends. If you fail, get working on becoming more involed.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:39:58

Yup, this is the same thing I posted yesterday explaining why I like Amazon and not WalMart. Especially now with the emergence of MDR-TB.

Comment by Dale
2015-10-27 08:48:59

Free healthcare for everyone.

Comment by Puggs
2015-10-27 08:58:39

That the self-employed pay for.

Comment by cactus
2015-10-27 08:54:55

Article for the parents with neck tattoos of the obese kidz”

yea like the parents read the WSJ …

Can you use a SNAP card to buy POT at a CO dispensary ?

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 11:55:54

That $155 a mo on their SNAP wont buy many brownies.

They should limit EBT purchases to about 40 essentials, no soda, no sugary crep….

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 17:53:44

25K a year in benefits

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Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 18:21:50

huh? Like what?

remember you need a soc sec # - so they are Murikans. Whisky Tango

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 09:32:04

If you love your kidz, please give them Cheetos instead of candy.

That’ll lead to the kids failing at school.

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 07:05:26

Warmist Warming Tuesday

Republican economic debate must confront reality of climate change:


Instead of clicking on Huffington Post alarmist bedwetter links, how about confronting the reality that the ultimate source of this warmism is that too many humanoids are breeding?

Infinite growth is not possible in a finite ecosystem. American exceptionalism has been a nice ride, but now it’s time to pass the baton and hand off this charred cinder of a planet to future generations, and let them deal with it. Wait until 200,000,000+ Bangladeshis need to relocate because of warmism, it’s gonna be a humanitarian disaster on an unimaginable scale :)

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 08:14:35

Too easy. Move the Bengals to Iceland and teach them to grow pineapples.

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 08:34:48

Every self-proclaimed “environmentalist” that I know has flown to Europe and/or Asia, South America at least once. And their bewailing about carbon footprint is always about the evil Koch brothers, never their own, or Al Gore’s for that matter.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 08:48:09

I am going to cook a nice juicy steak for dinner over a charcoal fire. Both are carbon neutral.

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Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 10:30:11

I have flown all over the world. I still like clean air and water.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-10-27 10:42:09

Disqualified. You’re exhaling C02 as well, therefore it’s ok to burn the rainforests.

Tree monkey logic.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 11:04:58

Exhaled CO2 is “carbon neutral”. So is burning forests if you use the new technology of replanting. Monkeys are also carbon neutral.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-10-27 11:45:25

Monkeys are often flatulent, making them net carbon producers.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 13:01:26

No Russ. Banana farts are carbon neutral, as long as there is a banana tree. The dialog has changed. Try to keep up.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2015-10-27 13:50:16

What if the monkeys are equipped with lighters to ignite their farts?

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 08:41:51

the ultimate source of this warmism is that too many humanoids

It ain’t the number of people, it’s their choice of fuel. End of story.

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 10:00:40

Loveland Ski Area opens this Thursday.

Now that King Obama has finally lowered gas prices, I’ll probably be driving the truck (20 mpg) alot more often that the Civic (37 mpg) to go skiing. Wolf Creek and Crested Butte are both about 500 miles roundtrip from here, and am considering trips to Utah and Jackson, WY this year.

When you read the reader comments on any Huffington Post article about warmism, there’s always lots of shaming language about the warmist denialists leaving a wrecked planet for their kidz and grandkidz.

As a pro-warmist, I celebrate leaving a wrecked planet for your kidz and grandkidz. My carbon footprint gets more Instagram likes than your carbon footprint 8)

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 10:17:11

Enjoy your hydrocarbons while you still can.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-10-27 11:09:16

How much time do we have?

Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 12:03:16

We are always about a year past the last predicted tipping point that was predicted two years ago.

I just need another four decades, and then in the immortal words of George W. Bush, “this sucker could go down.”

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 14:58:32

I got my mega-diesel floored and the smoke switch on burning as much fuel as she’ll take.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 15:33:22

you do that, and I will keep breeding as much as possible, creating more welfare recipients.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 16:16:56

Data Lola data!

San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY


Comment by Goon
2015-10-27 12:59:26

More warmism, as reported by real journalists at the New York Times

Greenland is melting away:


And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links.

Comment by rms
2015-10-27 18:50:44

Wait until 200,000,000+ Bangladeshis need to relocate because of warmism, it’s gonna be a humanitarian disaster on an unimaginable scale :)

With the high-resolution, satellite-feed drones we should be able to see ‘em on the 6-o’clock news splashing in the water like the Titanic’s steerage passengers.

Comment by WPA
2015-10-27 09:09:50

I can’t vouch for the accuracy of this website but it is a very serious accusation:

“Just 12 days before the 2008 economic meltdown, several members of Congress pulled their money out of the stock market. Congress had been forewarned about the impending economic bombshell in secret meetings with the Treasury Department and the Fed, and they used that information to move their personal funds out of the market at lightning speed. Meanwhile, millions of Americans lost their homes and their life savings.

“The day after the meeting with the Treasury, at least 10 senators made trades to protect their financial interests, while Americans remained in the dark. Senator Shelley Capito (R-WV) and her husband dumped between $100,000 and $250,000 of Citigroup stock on the 18th of November 2008 at $83 per share. The next day Citi stock fell to $64 per share. Congressman Jim Moran jumped ship too, frantically trading stock in 90 different companies — his biggest trading day of the year.”

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 09:32:38

not surprising at all. business as usual.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-10-27 10:57:04

They have exempted themselves from the rules that the rest of us have to live by. And they have to throw a Martha Stewart in jail every once in awhile to make sure we know it.

Comment by Max Power
2015-10-27 12:49:08

Exactly. Not illegal for members of Congress to trade their personal funds based on inside information. Crazy, but true. Why do we allow that? Why do we continue to elect people that allow that?

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 14:05:18

95% of the electorate are stupid. That’s why we allow that.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 09:33:54

“The belief that zero interest rates offer no alternative but to accept risk in stocks is valid only if one believes that stocks cannot experience profoundly negative returns. We know precisely how similar valuation extremes have worked out for investors over the completion of the market cycle, and those outcomes have never been deferred indefinitely. The only question at present is how many grains are left in the hourglass.”


Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 12:35:13

Total bubble driven by stock options and bogus ipo’s like pets.com.

A shareholder gives a company their money to grow the business. Stock buybacks to enrich the company execs is not growing the business. A lot of these buybacks are to prevent dillution from stock options.

Did you say that chart floating around with ceo compensation? Salary use to make up a big part of the pay but now stock options do.

Man it really seems that companies are using shareholder equity to enrich themselves.

It seems as long as these companies stay afloat anyway possible including borrowing then it continues.

We can sit here all day long and talk about an overvalued company. As long as they stay in business there is no consequence.

Eventually someone has got to pay for all these execs to get rich.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 12:40:35

Is Sam Zell Predicting Another Cool Off? Equity Residential Sells Off $5.4B in Apartments

‘All eyes are on Zell, who in 2007 gained notoriety by selling off one of this other companies, Equity Office Properties Trust, to the Blackstone Group for $39 billion – the largest private equity deal in history – again, at the top of the market. Shortly thereafter, the commercial property market crashed, values plummeted and debt defaults surged. By 2009, many of the 16 companies that purchased Equity Office buildings from Blackstone were crippled with debt and saddled with rising vacancy rates.’

“Buyers purchased buildings at what, in retrospect, were vastly inflated prices. Lenders provided lavish, even excessive, financing based upon unrealistic expectations of rising rents,” the New York Times noted back in 2009. “These were aggressive acquisitions under the best of circumstances,” concurred Paul E. Adornato, senior real estate analyst at BMO Capital Markets.’

“There’s an awful lot of apartments under construction,” Zell said, “and the majority of them are garden apartments in suburban areas.”


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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 13:22:59

Oh dear…

‘Twitter delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations on Tuesday. But light guidance sent shares down nearly 10 percent in after-hours.’


Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 13:28:29

It is sad to see all these families stuffed into apartments. Is an apartment the american dream now?

Just think where home prices would be if FHA wasnt the only game in town.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 15:14:03

Cheer up. Plenty of families live quite fulfilling lives in apartments.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 15:26:06

“But if you look at the equity markets and you look at what is supporting equity prices — how much of that support is coming from real economic activity versus from using stock buybacks, using cash on balance sheet for stock buybacks, or mergers and acquisitions, to reduced competition in the marketplace. ”


Frothiness? Casino royale? Monte carlo?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 10:21:36

Ford Profit Soars in 3rd Quarter, Propelled by F-150 Truck Sales

Driven largely by stout sales of its hot-selling Ford F-150 pickup truck, Ford Motor reported on Tuesday third-quarter earnings of $1.9 billion, up $1.1 billion over a year ago.

It was the automaker’s best quarter ever in North America, the company said. Improvements in Europe and South America also contributed to the positive report.

The company reported a pretax profit of $2.7 billion, up $1.5 billion. After-tax earnings were 45 cents a share, excluding special items, up 21 cents from the year-ago period.

The third-quarter automotive profit of $2.2 billion was an increase of $1.5 billion from the year-earlier period, in part because of market-share improvements in Europe and South America.

The automaker reported a record-setting third-quarter automotive-operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, higher by $3.5 billion over the year-ago period. The year-to-date figure is $5.2 billion.

Global market share was reported at 7.6 percent, up three-tenths of a percentage point from a year earlier. Share rose in North America, South America and Europe.


Comment by taxpayers
2015-10-27 12:13:59

kewl, the aluminum truck was risky
pais off

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 19:10:18

subprime auto on steroids.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 10:28:02


Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 14:34:10

why is a recovery based on higher stock and home prices?

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 12:19:46

1 trillion dollars


1,000,000,000,000/ 1 million (1,000,000)= 1,000,000

1,000,000/ 365 days in a year= 2739 years

So if u pay off a trillion dollars with no interest at 1 million per day it would take you 2739 years to pay it back.

I think the fed created like 4 trillion to buy bonds and mbs to keep the system afloat.

The national debt is like 18 trillion and the debt ceiling was raised again.

If interest rates were 5% the cost to service that debt would be around 900 billion or close to 1 trillion dollars per year.

Seems like keeping the debt serviceable is the only choice beyond default left.

Stocks will go down before rates are given the green light to rise substantially.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 14:08:23

The sheeple of Europe, who let themselves be disarmed, are now trying frantically to get firearms as the invading hordes from the Middle East and Africa stream into their homelands.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 14:43:59

when will short sellers get some b@lls and not cover on fed statements about rate hikes or QE?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-10-27 15:25:30

In these rigged and manipulated markets, utterly detached from fundamentals, shorting is suicide.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 15:56:08

Should u just buy on the FED expectations of protecting you from a plunge?

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-10-27 15:20:08

Davis, CA Housing Craters; Plunge 6% YoY


Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 16:22:49

Quiz for the day, who said this:

“When LBJ started the war on poverty in 1965, his goal was to get rid of the dole as, these are his words, “I want to get rid of the dole and turn tax eaters into tax payers.” OK, that’s our goal, but now we’ve spent over 20 trillion since then on the war on poverty, and the poverty levels are the same, so this isn’t working. So we need to reform it so it doesn’t create these obstacles to the disadvantaged becoming productive, contributing citizens, and just sit there on the dole. And I don’t believe for a minute people want that.

They say, “Oh, well people are lazy.” Yeah, because you block all opportunities. They smoke a joint, and they go to prison, and they can’t get a job, they’re ruined. Whereas we have a president who smoked a joint, and he becomes president. We have a candidate who says he smoke a joint, he’s running for president. Now what’s the equity, what’s the fairness in that? We need to get rid of those distinctions and those differences in opportunity, and then we need to teach these kids the values and skills required for success.

Now, there will still be some who can’t make it. So there needs to be a safety net. Now the question is, what’s the balance between force, which our current welfare system is based on, and voluntary cooperation and competition? I would argue we have too much force just like we have in the criminal justice system, and it needs to be a balance, and we need to use local knowledge. That is are all these so-called benefits, are they helping people or hurting them? They’re probably helping some, and they’re hurting others because they have a disincentive to work. And as I learned that unless you start working, if you’re frozen out of work, you will never learn the habits, the discipline, the values of cooperation and improvement unless you get a job, and that’s what statistic show. It’s, unless you get a job and keep it, you will not get out of poverty. If you do, you have a very good chance of working out of poverty.

So that’s, we want the emphasis more on education and opportunity than, than dole, just like Lyndon Johnson wanted. Now, exactly how to do it? We don’t have all the answers, but we think directionally we know that what’s been done, in a large part isn’t working, but there still needs to be a safety net.”

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 16:46:38

I’ll one up you Rental_Fraud.

Who said this;

“Houses depreciate.”

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 16:54:37

Whoever said it uttered a bunch of nonsense. There are millions of Americans besides the president who have smoked joints and later gone on to get good jobs. Also, apparently he would prefer a safety net based on “voluntary cooperation and competition” and not “force”. What the heck is he talking about?

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:11:48

His point wasn’t that the president should be punished. It was that no one’s lives should be ruined because they got caught smoking a joint.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 17:17:45

Well, if wants to legalize marijuana, he should just say that, A majority of Americans agree with that.


But it’s an odd thing to embed this position in a discussion about poverty.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:43:28

He’s talking about criminal justice reform as a way to help with the poverty problem. I don’t know what he proposes in how to do so, but I understand he is working with the WH on that project.

Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 16:55:41


You know I think most americans want opportunity to make sh@t happen, not a job working for someone else. That is the american dream.

Corporations hate competition though.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:19:24

Another set of quotes from the same guy:

“Well, I mean it’s not easy, because the economy is so riddled with corporate welfare and anti-competitive regulations, anti-innovation regulations. Regulations that are destroying opportunities for the disadvantaged, which is creating this two-tiered system we’re headed for which has which is destroying opportunities for the disadvantaged and creating welfare for the wealthy…

…I mean look at all the ways, all the forms of corporate welfare. I mean there are cash subsidies, there are loan guarantees, there are import tariffs, there are regulations on your competitors-…

…some cases we benefit, some we’re hurt, but we’re opposed to all of them whether we benefit or whether we’re hurt by them….

…All of ‘em. We oppose all of ‘em.”

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:21:15

And this might give it away:

” there’s a tax bill that comes up every year, it has 55 different subsidies called “extenders.”…

…And so we contributed to a bunch of the congress people’s campaigns, and so we wrote a letter to every congress person, “Please vote this down. This is a whole series of subsidies to things like making moves in an area, just one boondoggle after the other.”…

…”Please vote against this.” After all the Republicans, close to 250, only 46 voted against it. OK, so this is an experiment, so we’re going to be looking harder at which Republicans we support, or Democrats, I’m happy to support d- We work with the white house on criminal justice reform…”

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Comment by azdude
2015-10-27 17:25:24

ron paul?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 17:37:34

…some cases we benefit, some we’re hurt, but we’re opposed to all of them whether we benefit or whether we’re hurt by them….

Based on this, it’s reasonable to assume that the speaker is a fairly old, quite wealthy individual. It’s quite likely that he inherited his wealth. If not, he certainly accrued it in the economy that he’s complaining about. Quite possibly he benefited from plenty of corporate welfare.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:47:05

Yes, yes, no, yes, yes.

Comment by ProxyServer
2015-10-27 18:57:20

Charles Koch said it

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-28 04:25:32

We have a winner!

Long interview here:


First time I’ve ever seen any interview of meaningful length with either Koch. Not a bogeyman piece by the left, nor a puff piece from a PR firm from the right.

Can’t deny that they are trying to use money to influence politics, but if what he is saying is true, the ideas they’re pushing aren’t all bad.

Comment by CalifoH20
2015-10-27 18:25:36

Some people are content to sit on the porch all day as they never graduated high school.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:12:58

Second hint:

“I think is also an indication of that, is the median income in this country has dropped over the last eight years, and I’m not blaming any party. Both parties are guilty of this. Like I say, what I believe is that both parties are taking us down the road to serfdom, creating this two-tiered system and heading us toward a financial crisis but the Democrats are doing it at 100 miles an hour, and the Republicans are only doing it 70 miles an hour.”

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 17:22:40

That book about serfdom was published 70 years ago. If we’ve been on road for all of that time, you’d think that we’d have reached the destination by now.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:44:41

If you listen to T. Pikkety, we’re getting closer and closer given wealth inequality.

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Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 18:02:23

I think that serfdom is supposed to mean a loss of freedom, not poverty or high levels of inequality.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 18:19:18

a person in a condition of servitude, required to render services to a lord, commonly attached to the lord’s land and transferred with it from one owner to another.


Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 18:35:41

I was referring to the book “The Road to Serfdom.” Doing some Googling just now I found this excerpt from that book. The write was apparently an advocate of a string safety net

There is no reason why, in a society which has reached the general level of wealth ours has, the first kind of security should not be guaranteed to all without endangering general freedom. There are difficult question about the precise standard which should thus be assured; there is particularly the important question whether those who thus rely on the community should indefinitely enjoy all the same liberties as the rest. An incautious handling of these questions might well cause serious and perhaps even dangerous political problems; but there can be no doubt that some minimum of food, shelter and clothing, sufficient to preserve health and the capacity to work, can be assured to everybody. Indeed, for a considerable part of the population of England this sort of security has long been achieved.

Nor is there any reason why the state should not assist the individuals in providing for those common hazards of life against which, because of their uncertainty, few individuals can make adequate provision. Where, as in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are as a rule weakened by the provision of assistance - where, in short, we deal with genuinely insurable risks - the case for the state’s helping to organize a system of social insurance is very strong.


Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 18:38:50

‘a society which has reached the general level of wealth ours has’

Like you said, 70 years ago.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 18:40:54

We’re much more prosperous than the UK was 70 years ago.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-10-27 18:51:15

We’re better off than Botswana! Of course, the UK has taken a much more socialist path in those 70 years, so it figures.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 19:42:20

No, I was comparing America today to the UK in 1944.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-28 04:29:05

creating this two-tiered system

He is not referring to loss of freedom. He’s talking about a two tiered system. The lords (as Ben notes), and the serfs.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 17:33:54

“When LBJ started the war on poverty in 1965, his goal was to get rid of the dole as, these are his words, “I want to get rid of the dole and turn tax eaters into tax payers.” OK, that’s our goal, but now we’ve spent over 20 trillion since then on the war on poverty, and the poverty levels are the same, so this isn’t working.

If you go and look up the War on Poverty on Wikipedia and look at the programs that were created as part of the War on Poverty, you’ll see Medicare listed there. That program and Social Security are working pretty well as anti-poverty programs. Senior citizens generally have the lowest poverty rates.

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-27 17:45:43

Does that make his statement untrue? Have poverty levels overall fallen since 1965?

Comment by MightyMike
2015-10-27 17:57:39

His statement is true, but many things have happened in the American economy over the 50 years. The poverty rate fell during the first 7 or 8 years after the enactment of the War on Poverty programs. That takes us into the middle 1970s when a number of things happened that put a lot of pressure on the incomes of the majority of American families. So it’s not honest to say that those programs aren’t working.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2015-10-28 04:19:22

We didn’t spend all the money in the first 7 or 8 years.

Clearly what we are doing now isn’t working. This is true regardless of what you think of LBJ’s programs.

Comment by rms
2015-10-28 08:05:28

“Senior citizens generally have the lowest poverty rates.”

Particularly those with holes in their pockets.

Comment by rms
2015-10-27 18:31:30

They say, “Oh, well people are lazy.”

Many of the family supporting jobs now have a cognitive component, and if one isn’t willing to adapt and learn then they’re likely headed toward a difficult life. Those sixties union jobs are way behind us.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-10-27 21:18:56

And, even worse, now we are exporting these cognitive component jobs as fast as we can, or importing educated immigrants who are willing to perform these tasks at lower wages.

It’s one of the reasons I recommend being a state-licensed journeyman electrician in my state - it takes four years to become licensed (high barrier to entry), the pay is decent, and the job can’t be exported.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-10-27 19:47:16

linky no worky

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