Bits Bucket for November 1, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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You can set your clocks back an hour, but realtors are still liars.
Or just pretend you are in Brazil, but ignore the 5 hour time difference and post at times commensurate with living in DC.
“Or just pretend you are in Brazil”
‘I do, I do, I do:’ Brazilian female trio get hitched
By Laura Bonilla
October 30, 2015 10:14 PM
The happy trio, who reportedly have shared a bed for years and say they want to raise a child, took an oath of love in early October in the presence of Rio de Janeiro notary public Fernanda de Freitas Leitao.
“Our union is the fruit of love,” the unnamed businesswoman in the trio told the daily O Globo.
“We are preparing for my pregnancy…. The legalization is a way for the baby and for us to not end up abandoned and penniless. We want to enjoy the same maternal rights that everyone else has.”
news.yahoo.com/brazilian-female-trio-hitched-021426110.html -
Mine gave me water and pointed to the high ceilings.
When we sold our house in 2010 , we had property ingress/egress issues.
Our realtor went to the neighbor and told them she had cancer and was trying to pay for her chemo treatments. They didn’t fall for it,
When she told us what she did, we were appalled.
What business do people with under $60K in household income have buying homes for $500K or more? Seems like da boyz are financially engineering another housing crisis in the near future.
Here’s the Average American Household’s Income, by Region of the U.S. — How Do You Compare?
The entire country averages about $53,000, but there are significant differences by region.
Brian Stoffel
(TMFCheesehead)
Oct 31, 2015 at 6:40AM
These lights could be used as a proxy for economic activity across America. Photo: NASA, via Flickr.
Everyone knows that the cost of living — and the salary a worker can demand — varies by region of the United States. But how much does it vary? And how do you compare to the average within your own region?
The Census Bureau provides some clarity on the problem. Every year, the organization releases information on household income by region. It has divided the country into four sections: Northeast, Midwest, West, and South.
After finding your own region of the country, simply take your household’s yearly pre-tax income and compare it to the median income in each region for 2014 to see where you compare.
…
MelissaData has stats on AGIs by zip from 2000 to 2011. My former neighborhood in Phoenix had mostly $200,000 houses. In my California zip the houses are in the $600s. AGIs are each in the $66k area. It’s no wonder I would see people in my former neighborhood with very nice cars. Over here the ones with the nicest cars are renters. They drive nice cars in Phoenix because they can more afford them.
We attended a HS marching band tournament yesterday in which one of our sons performed. I pointed out to my wife a number of men working (on a Saturday which happened to also be Halloween) on the roofs of nearby homes under construction, immediately behind the high school (Del Norte / PUSD). These homes sprang up like mushrooms, as the area where they are building them was vacant land a couple of years ago.
We drove into the construction area after the performance. There are hundreds of closely spaced cookie-cutter homes in there with virtually no yards, 4000+ sq ft floor space and 5 bedrooms. Prices are “from $1.4 Million.”
How many San Diegans who aren’t already comfortably housed are looking to buy a $1+ million tract home in a land-locked area with no ocean view? It boggles the mind.
Wonder if the buyers all have black hair and look sort of Chinese?
Or if in the OC, they love their flying carpets and goat stew.
I rather enjoy goat stew….
Dont forget, if your car breaks done in July in PHX, it can kill you if it is 112 outside.
“Dont forget, if your car breaks done in July in PHX, it can kill you if it is 112 outside.”
Just an educated guess that you’ve never been to Phoenix.
Think you will be stranded and without water there? http://images.firstcovers.com/covers/flash/p/phoenix,_arizona-146447.jpg
been there plenty of times, but the summers are not suitable for human habitation. Horrible place, sprawl, traffic, uneducated inhabitants and snow birds in the winter.
No one with only a 60k income is qualifying for a $500000 loan this time.
$300,000 on your own maybe. Say your mom is going to live with you and that you will rent out the basement. $500,000, no problem.
Lenders do not count “potential” income from renting a room until you show 2 yrs income.
http://www.ebony.com/career-finance/new-fannie-mae-mortgage-rules-benefit-african-american-latino-homebuyers-076#axzz3qHpFEYqf
Seems like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are determined to continue the same racially discriminatiry lending policies which resulted in a disproportionate level of financial harm to Latin and African American households in the 2007-08 housing bust. You’d think someone over there might learn from their past mistakes, especially since racial discrimination in lending is illegal in the U.S. But then nothing seems surprising, given that these firms are not even supposed to exist at this point.
How’s the gubmint’s grand plan to turn all American households into homeowners working out?
The Tennessean
Money
American dream of homeownership eludes millennials
Jennifer Pagliara, For The Tennessean
1 day ago
Getty Images / iStockphoto
U.S. homeownership has reached a near 50-year low, and renting is at an almost 30-year high.
Historically, owning a home was a foundation of the American dream. It was evidence that an American had achieved financial success, that he or she had “made it.” But today, U.S. homeownership has reached a near 50-year low, renting an almost 30-year high, and the millennial generation — the largest cohort of the American workforce — is either unwilling or unable to put down roots. So it makes us wonder: Is buying a home still a linchpin of the American dream?
To buy or not to buy
According to a report from the Council of Economic Advisers to the White house late last year, millennial homeownership has fallen to its lowest rate in recent history. Instead, millennials are renting, which itself could be an obstacle to homeownership. According to an August report by Zillow, first-time homebuyers (whose median age has been somewhere between 29 and 33.3 for more than 40 years) are waiting a record six years to make the move from renting to owning. Says Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell, it’s hard to “save for a down payment … while the rental market is so unaffordable all over the country.”
Other millennials have seen what their parents went through in the 2007 housing bubble collapse. Still others are currently shouldering most of the nation’s $1 trillion student loan debt or are facing 7 percent unemployment, declining credit scores and lower salaries. Whatever the case, it’s clear that many millennials aren’t ready for homeownership.
Financially and culturally unique
It could be that homeownership for millennials, even when financially feasible, isn’t their dream at all. Renting is conducive to millennials’ proclivity to travel and experience the world. The upkeep is easier, and they can often get out of their lease with only one month’s notice. Moreover, millennials are delaying marriage (which, of course, could also be a financial decision), and that may mean they’re also purposely delaying homeownership. The low rate of millennial homeownership could be as much a cultural as a financial phenomenon.
…
Is this a solution looking for a problem? The millennials et al. are obeying the economic curve. Who is really worried that they do not buy houses? The millennials may be, but that is their deal. Nobody gives a darn if I live in a rental the rest of my life, but OMG, millions of my peers and juniors? That is a problem that vexes the REIC.
Latinos Turn to Home Ownership as Renting Costs Soar Nationwide
By Nicole Akoukou Thompson staff@latinpost.com | Oct 30, 2015 02:48 PM EDT
For Rent, Renting
VIEW SLIDESHOW
More U.S. Latinos are considering home ownership as the cost of renting soars across the nation, according to a renter survey conducted by the banking institution TD Bank. In fact, the new report says within the next two years, Latinos are nine percent more likely than the general market to purchase a home (42 percent compared to 31 percent).
The data published Oct. 21 found that Hispanics’ top motivators for home ownership includes increasing rental costs (47 percent) and a desire to build equity (40 percent). Also, 22 percent stated they wanted to start or they’ve started a new job, and 12 percent want to start a family, or they’ve started a family. Hispanic respondents were more likely than the general market (17 percent versus 10 pecent) to state they experienced a rent increase between $100 and $150 within a two year period, the average increase of $291 per renter. Approximately half of respondents live alone, while the other half pay live with another.
…
Hispanics are buying homes because other hispanics tell them that they are throwing their money away on rent. They majority are on the ‘how mucha month it a’gonna cost plan’ with no savings. Plus up this way they are multi-family or one who purchases on affordable housing renting out three extra bedrooms. One single mom was bragging to my wife several years ago how the renters were making both her house and car payments with the low income rent.
A lot of hard-working Latinos are being screwed over due to their dependence on fellow Latinos as realtors or mortgage brokers who can “guide” them through the process.
aka affinity fraud.
It’s a shame. I hate seeing decent, hard-working people getting screwed over.
12:33 pm ET
Oct 27, 2015
Economy
The Homeownership Rate Is Near a 30-Year Low. Could It Be Hitting Bottom?
Census Bureau
Homeownership
Real Estate
By Laura Kusisto and Kris Hudson
CONNECT
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said the numbers could show that the homeownership rate, which has been declining steadily for a decade, is finally leveling out.
JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES
The homeownership rate remained near its lowest point in three decades in the third quarter, but economists said the good news is that it may not go much lower.
Not seasonally adjusted, the homeownership rate ticked up slightly to 63.7% from 63.4% in the last quarter–still near its lowest point in 30 years.
The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate remained at 63.5% in the third quarter, according to estimates published by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, unchanged from the quarter earlier.
The number of homeowner households increased by 123,000 in the third quarter from a year earlier, while the number of renter households increased by 1.3 million.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said the numbers could show that the homeownership rate, which has been declining steadily for a decade, is finally leveling out.
“I don’t expect any significant increase any time soon, but I think we’re finally at bottom,” he said.
The quarterly estimates are viewed as not terribly reliable by some economists and the overall trend still points to a declining homeownership rate.
…
How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica?
“The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate remained at 63.5% in the third quarter, according to estimates published by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, unchanged from the quarter earlier.
The number of homeowner households increased by 123,000 in the third quarter from a year earlier, while the number of renter households increased by 1.3 million.”
While the numbers in the two successive paragraphs don’t line up, something smells funny. Assuming all households either rent or own, the share of homeowner households in the overall year-on-year increase in households is 123/(123+1300) ×100% = 8.6%. If you are cheerleading for a higher future homeownership rate, the trend ain’t your friend.
How’s the gubmint’s grand plan to turn all American households into homeowners working out?
About the same way “hope ‘n change” is working out for the rest of the 99%.
If we just had bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes - we could fix this!
The food stamps and welfare and Section 8 to Walmart employees is not the government subsidizing Walmart. It is Walmart subsidizing the government. Otherwise those workers would be 100 percent on the dole. But hey, at least they work and don’t just give in.
Obama signing NAFTA for far east Asia will solve that issue
While deep-dicking American workers, again. Goldman Sachs’ investment in Obama is paying off handsomely.
The food stamps and welfare and Section 8 to Walmart employees is not the government subsidizing Walmart. It is Walmart subsidizing the government. Otherwise those workers would be 100 percent on the dole. But hey, at least they work and don’t just give in.
Logic fail.
Thank you Walmart for providing jobs to people who would otherwise be entirely on the dole.
Comprehension fail Lola.
Let’s go over the math.
If the living wage is $15/hr and Walmart only pays $10/hr, who pays the $5/hr difference? You do and I do when that $10/hr employee qualifies for SNAP and EITC, among other things.
When the GOP fights the minimum wage they are also increasing welfare and poverty spending for the working poor.
Low wages = labor subsidy for WalMart, Target, McDonalds, etc. Raising the minimum wage to above the poverty line will save the taxpayer billions in government assistance spending. The GOP continues this corporate labor subsidy because as you so often complain, they serve the oligarchy first and foremost.
So Walmart is saving the government $10 an hour because otherwise they’d be costing the govt $15 an hour on the dole cause the government would be paying all of their living wages.
Thank you Walmart for providing jobs to people who would otherwise be entirely on the dole.
So could that be said for any employer? Thank you General Electric for hiring people blah blah blah?
No, it can’t be said for any employer, just those who employ large amount of people on the dole.
What do you get on the dole? Do you need a soc sec?
EBT = $150 mo
what else is there?
Soc sec and medicare are counted as entitlements but people pd into soc sec.
LOL! Got logic 101 at your community college?
Most of the employees I see at Wal-Mart are earning their meager pay. The FSA bums I see at Wal-Mart, not so much.
Reagan tried with his increase in gov, tripling of the deficit and illegal arms trades.
We want less gov, more competitive arenas.
lol@liberace
And things have only gotten worse.
The obama housing bubble v2.0 marches on…
—————-
Life After Brooklyn - Moving Out of Brooklyn Because of High Prices
NY Times - AUG 22, 2014
And last year, when they were ready to buy, the couple quickly realized they had been priced out. “I can’t tell you how many listings said, ‘cash only,’ ” said Mr. Huston, whose real estate search included everything from $500,000 apartments to $900,000 fixer-upper rowhouses and took him from Williamsburg to Bedford-Stuyvesant. “That was a wake-up call.”
And so the Hustons bid farewell to Brooklyn. In October, they spent $550,000 on a 2,000-square-foot loft in a converted suitcase factory in Jersey City Heights, a section of Jersey City that overlooks Hoboken. “We weren’t sure there was anyone like us in the neighborhood,” he said. Then a Brooklyn-style coffee shop arrived. “The line down the street was all people like us. We could have been in Williamsburg. It was all, like, expats.”
In the northwest part of the borough, where chain stores like J. Crew and Rag & Bone are edging out locally owned bars and organic grocers, “Brooklyn has become unaffordable,” said Victoria Hagman, the broker-owner of the Realty Collective, founded in 2005. “For normal, middle-class people with good credit, we used to be able to say, ‘We can find you something.’ ” Now, even in once working-class areas like Windsor Terrace, Kensington, Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant, she said, “people are priced out of purchasing and landlords are asking egregious numbers.”
Renters aren’t faring much better. The median rental price in northern Brooklyn was up 6.6 percent to $2,852 in July, marking the 14th consecutive year-over-year increase in monthly rent, according to a report by Douglas Elliman. That is $353 cheaper than the median monthly rent in Manhattan. Five years ago Brooklyn was $1,030 cheaper.
Citizen! The failures of our central planners should not concern you. Please focus on Justin Bieber storming out of a concert.
Obamacare Is A Disaster: Co-Op Insurers Across America Are Collapsing, And Now There Is Fraud
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2015 23:09 -0400
It isn’t but what are customers going to do: after all the “Affordable Care Act” is a tax (one which “boosts” GDP every quarter no less) and you must pay it by law; sadly the Supreme Court forgot that when it makes a service mandatory, corporations can charge any price they want.
And that’s precisely what they are doing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-30/obamacare-disaster-co-op-insurers-across-america-are-collapsing-and-now-there-fraud
If government pays for your bedroom and pays for your babies to be born and pays for your medical/psychological care, guess what. They will be entitled to go into your bedroom, your womb or your psych records.
And your Obamaphone text messages and calls would certainly be fair game also. Just sign this form. Don’t worry about the small print.
Seriously I wonder how many would be willing to allow 100 percent access to all calls, Internet searches, location, texts and other data in exchange for phones with free calls data and internet. My guess is upwards of 65 percent at least.
Every time I hear someone say “I have nothing to hide, let them spy on me,” I cringe.
What are you hiding?
Not familiar with co-ops. I am pricing my 2016 coverage. We currently pay ~$2400/mo for a family of three, no deductible, no co insurance. BCBS isn’t offering this plan in 2016. I’ll likely go with a BCBS PPO through my state bars exchange. Deductible is $1000 per person $3000 for family. Premiums are $1200 approx.
My out of pocket will likely be about the same depending on usage.
I got my money’s worth out of my 2015 coverage, had a surgery, 2 MRIs, delivered a baby. My 2015 billed amount before adjustments is something stupid like $100k+.
I think the jury is still out on Obamacare. I do know I am not married to an employer plan due to preexisting conditions which is great for us.
Ever notice your bill? Charges $639. Allowed amount by insurance $120. Patient pays $50, insurance pays $70. With out insurance at all, they want $639 cash. w t f do we let this happen?
Yes, ACA bites c’mon Ryan and GOP give us an alternative! Dont let Blue Cross run the show.
And now a more recent article.
How many think a writer (freelance?) and a “marketing director” for a “fragrance company” can afford this?
The obama housing bubble v2.0 keeps rolling along. Maybe Hillary can bring it to the next level…
——————
Escape From Brooklyn
The NY Times - OCT. 30, 2015
We loved our apartment, but the certainty and sanity of staying there, and for that matter, in Brooklyn, were beginning to dissolve. Finally, after seeing a beat-up two-bedroom on the fourth floor of a creaky walk-up in one of our coveted school zones — for $1.2 million, beyond our budget — it seemed we weren’t choosing to leave, but were being pushed out. But to where?
But in spring 2014 we finally found a place in Hastings — a stately early 20th-century eclectic, with dark wood beams in the living and dining room ceilings and a classic tile roof, on a cul-de-sac and just a seven-minute stroll to the train. Before I even walked in the door, I knew this was it.
Luckily, just as we had counted on, there was intense interest and a bidding war. Ultimately, the apartment sold for several hundred thousand over our asking price of $949,000, and in a bit of kismet, for the exact same price as our new home in Hastings. We had planned on paying less for a new home, banking the profits from the sale, but I reasoned that real estate is an investment, too.
My wife and I both work in creative fields — I’m a writer and she is a marketing executive at a fragrance company — and we wanted a town with other professionals like us and a more laid-back vibe, but with an excellent school system. Since my wife works in Midtown, a short commute was a priority as well.
Living in NYC is a mental illness.
In his van down by the river, ABQ Dan’s sobs just intensified.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11968420/Chinese-economy-stumbles-as-manufacturing-sector-shrinks-for-third-straight-month.html
Sunday funnies.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/11/01/sunday-funnies-86/
China sinks deeper into recession despite (or maybe because of) another trillion in printing-press Yuan thrown into the breach.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-01/chinas-manufacturingmisses-nonmanufacturing-worst-2008-despite-unprecedented-1-trill
It sure seems like a lot of recent articles about China’s economy mention “worst since 2008″ in the story.
Wasn’t 2008 the year when the global financial economy’s wheels spun off?
Coincidentally, the Chinese created a $25+ Trillion debt pyramid since then.
It is starting to show cracks.
Super Secret Settled Science
The “pause” was erased by Super Secret Settled Science and anyone wanting to see detailed information of exchanges between NOAA scientists (or the White House saying WTF are you doing producing Data that shows No Warming in the last 15 years) or the internal communications of the process the NOAA scientists used to erase the 15-year “pause” in global warming would be harmful to the integrity of the scientific process.
Climate scientists criticize government paper that erases ‘pause’ in warming
By Maxim Lott Published June 10, 2015
“The new NOAA dataset disagrees with a UK dataset, which is generally regarded as the gold standard for global sea surface temperature datasets,” she said. “The new dataset also disagrees with ARGO buoys and satellite analyses.”
The NOAA paper, produced by a team of researchers led by Tom Karl, director of the agency’s National Climatic Data Center, found most of its new warming trend by adjusting past measurements of sea temperatures.
———————————————————————————
Agency won’t give GOP internal docs on climate research
By Timothy Cama - 10/28/15 12:47 PM EDT
The federal government’s chief climate research agency is refusing to give House Republicans the detailed information they want on a controversial study on climate change.
Citing confidentiality concerns and the integrity of the scientific process, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it won’t give Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) the research documents he subpoenaed.
NOAA spokeswoman Ciaran Clayton said the internal communications are confidential and not related to what Smith is trying to find out.
“The new NOAA dataset disagrees with a UK dataset, which is generally regarded as the gold standard for global sea surface temperature datasets,” she said. “The new dataset also disagrees with ARGO buoys and satellite analyses.”
For a science that has been touted to already been settled this appears to me to be a bit unsettling.
“Citing confidentiality concerns and the integrity of the scientific process, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it won’t give Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) the research documents he subpoenaed.”
And this is a sure sign that they have nothing to hide.
(sarc)
And this not sharing makes peer review - true unbiased peer review - sort of a tough thing to carry out.
Here’s something you don’t get to read all that often lately:
“NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses”
“A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
“The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
“According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.”
And it’s from the folks who work at … NASA. Amazing!
These NASA folks had better be careful of their conclusions else they just might have their funding cut.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses
It’s perfectly normal for scientists to quibble about how measurements are taken and how to adjust data to remove various systemic biases. Climate deniers will of course jump on that to spread their campaign of fear, uncertainty and doubt to carry water for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, the glaciers are still melting, the ocean is still dying, 1000-year floods and droughts happen every year now and tropical storms blow up into Cat 5 hurricanes overnight.
Remember, it’s not AAA WPA unless you mention Bangladesh has sunk into the ocean.
The data cookers are obviously claiming sanctuary, the ancient practice of protection in a holy temple.
How many gov workers are being paid to discover global warming?
What is the best plan to get for yourself and for your group lots of government funding?
Plan A: State to the population that all is well, or …
Plan B: State to the population that a crisis is at hand?
So all of the university studies that aren’t government funded would come to a halt? You don’t need a government grant to show that climate change is obvious:
https://summitvoice.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/muir-glacier-1941.jpg
Muir Glacier, Alaska, 1941 and 2011.
That’s pretty impressive! I mean the number of outright deceptions and whoppers. We give this one an AA+
“For nearly two centuries prior to 1941, Muir Glacier had been retreating.”
http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/glaciers/repeat_photography.asp
If you would bother to wiki-up “little ice age” you will learn that:
“The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Optimum). While it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into the scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939. It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries, or alternatively, from about 1300 to about 1850, although climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of this period, which varied according to local conditions. The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the LIA suggested largely independent regional climate changes, rather than a globally synchronous increased glaciation. At most there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.
“Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, an inherent variability in global climate, or decreases in the human population.”
Let’s home in on this part:
“The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.”
In 1850 there began a “little ice”. Since that time a warm period arose, which means any glaciers that were formed during the period of this little ice should melt, and this glacier melting is what has occurred.
How Scientists Fool Themselves and How They Can Stop
http://www.nature.com/news/how-scientists-fool-themselves-and-how-they-can-stop-1.18517
According to the IPCC reports play variations in solar activity in the climate no major role. However, this conclusion gives rise to concern because the view back into the climate history of the past 10,000 years shows a variety of impressive examples of a significant solar climate impact. It is unlikely that the human being this interaction is supposed to have suddenly dropped between our parent star and the Earth’s climate. A beautiful case study comes from the Quaternary Science Reviews. Ojala and colleagues published there in March 2015 study on climate history of Scandinavia based on Seesedimentuntersuchungen. The scientists found characteristic cyclicity, including the well-known solar Eddy (1000 years), Suess-de Vries (200 years) and Gleissberg (90 years) cycles:
http://www.kaltesonne.de/sonne-macht-klima-neues-aus-europa/
“Spiegel Online has taken care on 8 September 2015 by an important problem of the climate change debate with which we are confronted almost daily here in the blog:
Dispute over environmental PR: How misleading are the gaps in our knowledge of the climate scientists .Reports on climate research is hardly to be trusted, as analyzes show.Reason, biased journalists exaggerated politicians and arrogant researchers.A new strategy is to change that.
First5, the mirror online editor Axel Bojanowski takes care of an IPCC Panne to hurricanes, then he looks at the media coverage:
Even rapporteur distorted the results of climate change research in a problematic way, researchers have now in a comprehensive analysis of English-language mass media noted. From 1906 studied in autumn 2013. Articles revealed only every seventh uncertainty of the results, which were presented in the UN climate report. The rest fluttered against explicitness. A remarkable diagnosis, but is hardly an issue more confused than the climate.Thousands environmental phenomena act simultaneously on one another:Small changes can trigger tremendous upheavals, are large, however cushioned by so-called feedback. So why the propensity for clarity?
Exaggeration and arrogance of some actors are an acute problem:In the interests of clarity climatologists should dress reports on their results, therefore, in a kind of PR-language media researchers to recommend Stephan Lewandosky from the University of Bristol in a widespread communication aid for scientists.
(snip)
“Critical questions from journalists were then dismissed unfairly and inadequately answered. At the press conference in Stockholm had the employees of a British newspaper dared to ask the IPCC scientists on the podium When asked why computer simulations did not foresee the stagnation of the global temperature rise in the previous 15 years. “Your question is wrongly” rüffelte the head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Michel Jarraud, arrogant reporter.”
Etc.
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdiekaltesonne.de%2F
Food for thought Combo, centurys long cycles.
More food for thought: Variables, a multitude of variables.
Variables that are predictable, variables that are not. Variables that operate and influence other variables, sometimes re-inforcing, sometimes inhibiting.
When will Yelen the Felon embark on a new counterfeiting binge to prop up Wall Street’s Ponzi markets?
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/31/sp-500us-dollar-index-ratio-warns-october-rally-will-fail-bear-market-is-here/
I’d expect it by the end of November. Some type of announcement to get the market up in time for year end bonuses.
Trump was right. Yellen is going to try to keep the Ponzi levitated on Obama’s watch. But the instant a President Trump or Carson is sworn in, the Fed will do everything in its power to tank the markets and the economy, although personally, I think the crash is going to come well before then.
Conservative wackos harass and vilify a grieving mother. Disgusting.
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/you-are-a-lying-btch-truthers-attack-grieving-moms-book-about-her-sandy-hook-victim-son/
Yup, the Fox-Limbaugh-Hannity-Alex Jones Ministry of Propaganda must brainwash people into thinking Sandy Hook never happened, it’s all a conspiracy for Obama to take your guns.
Sandy Hook deniers and climate change deniers are birds of a feather: anything to undermine the truth to further a political agenda.
I’m a 2nd Amendment advocate, but some of the gun-rights crowd disgust me. There is truth and there is untruth, and trying to claim that every mass shooting is a “false flag” employing “crisis actors,” when tragedy is being visited upon real people, is despicable. So is taunting or harrassing the grieving families of the victims who have taken up the cause of gun control. While I think some of their anger might be misguided, I certainly can’t fault them for trying to do whatever they can to make sure someone else doesn’t have to go through what they’re going through. These family members are entitled to some simple human decency and deep sympathy and compassion for what they’ve lost, not mockery and accusations of somehow being complicit in a conspiracy to disarm Americans.
Good post. The root of the problem is the Kneejerk Rifle Association, which like Pavlov’s dog, salivates and barks at any gun legislation, no matter how limited and carefully thought out. Ironically the conservatives who oppose background checks at private gun shows just might be enabling undocumented immigrants a way to obtain weapons.
Admit it, you are for gun confiscation.
No thanks, I’d like to keep mine. And I sleep at night knowing Obama isn’t going to sneak into my house and take it.
You are correct, your Messiah has done nothing to address the issue of people with mental illness, the real problem. So your gun is safe, as are your meds. Please keep them up.
I have a few guns too, mostly for shooting squirrels. Awesome, older Winchester .22 bolt action. 1982 single 12 guage $59 Kmart Savage shotgun and a 1982 Winchester 30-30 worth about $300 that I cant part with. Looking into a light handgun for hiking/fishing in Montana next summer.
Ignore those additional couple of hundred classified emails. Focus on some fringe whackos.
“Disgusting.”
So this isn’t on your Christmas wish list?
Amazon.com: Nobody Died At Sandy Hook: It wasn’t a School …
http://www.amazon.com/Nobody-Died-Sandy-Hook-Massacre/dp/1518650848 - 439k - Cached - Similar pages
Too big to jail = democracy fail.
There is something seriously wrong with the moral compass of anyone who would vote for this corrupt, dishonest, money-grubbing epitome of a crony capitalist and corporate statist.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article41972739.html
Perhaps, but Trump, Rubio, Carson and Cruz are worse.
Take your moral relativism to HuffPo where it might fly. Voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil. I decline.
Relativism schmelativism. At least with Hillary the middle class gets thrown some crumbs. The GOP candidates openly advocate policies that will shrink the middle class further. The massive deficits and enrichment of the oligarchy under Trump’s, Carson’s or Rubio’s budgets are 2x or 3x worse than what we suffered through under GWB.
People who sanction corruption with their votes are just as detestable as the sleazy politicians themselves.
Ray - who is your guy or girl to represent ya?
This is horrific any way you look at it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-01/russian-plane-broke-apart-air-officials-say-investigators-frantically-search-clues
Guess why Bubba is meeting with Netanyahu. Is Hillary a neocon?
I met with @billclinton today in Jerusalem. I discussed Israel’s security and what must be done to fight terrorism.
https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/660051885550792704
Enjoy! It made laugh, but hey, it’s creative!
https://asheville.craigslist.org/reo/5245654210.html
I hope this didn’t post twice.
But this ad for the sale of this guys home gave me a laugh.
https://asheville.craigslist.org/reo/5245654210.html
How does one afford the ridiculous price of San Diego housing, given a lack of economic opportunity? The sex trade could hold the answer for some.
Study Shows Scope Of Sex Trafficking In San Diego County
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
By Megan Burke, Maureen Cavanaugh, Peggy Pico
Evening Edition
Above: Ami Carpenter, assistant professor at USD’s School of Peace Studies, and Chief Deputy District Attorney Summer Stephan, discuss new research on sex trafficking with Even Edition Host Peggy Pico.
Midday Edition logo
Aired 10/28/15 on KPBS Midday Edition.
GUESTS:
Jamie Gates, professor, Point Loma Nazarene University
Ami Carpenter, assistant professor, School of Peace Studies at University of San Diego
Summer Stephan, chief deputy district attorney, San Diego County District Attorney’s Office
Above: This graph shows the annual economic impact of sex trafficking in San Diego County as compared to other industries in the county. *The number used for the Padres represents the price the team sold for in 2012. Source: Gangs and Sex Trafficking in San Diego.
San Diego law enforcement has long known that sex trafficking was a significant problem in San Diego. In 2001, the FBI identified San Diego to be among the most active child sex trafficking areas in the United States.
Social services agencies have known thousands of underage girls were being victimized in our region and police understood that gangs were heavily involved in prostitution.
But now, for the first time, instead of just anecdotes about the problem there are numbers to reveal the scope of human sex trafficking in San Diego County.
…
r u gonna turn tricks on elcajon blvd to make rent?
Rubio and Bush turn tricks for Sheldon Adelson in nicer places than Elcajon Blvd.
Why Did San Francisco’s Last Gun Shop Close Its Doors?
High Bridge Arms gun shop refused to handover customer information to police.
Alex Manning|Nov. 1, 2015 9:30 am
Over the weekend, San Francisco will lose its last gun store: High Bridge Arms.
Why? The city has mandated that gun shops hand over information about its customers to the cops.
“Just the idea of giving that information willingly to the police department, for no real reason, seemed very unreasonable to me.” says Steven Alcairo, the general manager of High Bridge Arms. Alcairo notes that the store already complies with all federal and state reporting requirements.
Mark Farrell, a member of San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors, was behind the local ordinance. The ordinance places new requirements on gun shops like High Bridge Arms, such as videotaping everything that happens in their stores and providing the San Francisco Police Department with weekly updates on customers and purchases.
“I would never introduce legislation to hurt a small business in our city,” Farrell told the local NBC affiliate. “However, if a gun store in particular wants to close as a result of it, so be it.”
High Bridge Arms’ website says the shop was opened in 1952 by the renowned Olympic shooter Bob Chow. It was later bought by Andy Takahashi in the late 1980s. It was Takahashi who made the decision to close the doors.
“You know, I think I would like it if San Franciscans would just kinda take a look at this,” says Alcario. “We decriminalized medical marijuana, we pioneered equal rights. But in the same town you’re gearing laws specifically to make it hard on me,”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csZ5Ah4NcSs - 238k -
Is it a violation of international law to bet against or even make negative comments about the Chinese stock market?
Top China investor, foreigners snared in Beijing’s crackdown
Haze Fan | Special to CNBC | and Leslie Shaffer
13 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
A Chinese day trader watches a stock ticker at a local brokerage house in Beijing, China.
Getty Images
China’s stock markets may have stabilized after a months-long rout, but authorities appear to still be looking for perpetrators, with reports of an arrest and an international manhunt emerging over the weekend.
In what may be the highest profile arrest so far, Xu Xiang, the manager of the Zexi Investment, one of China’s largest private money managers funds, was detained by police Sunday, according to state-owned Xinhua news agency. The fund’s website is inaccessible and appears to be crippled.
Police have taken control of Zexi’s offices in Shanghai and Beijing, taking away and examining documents and computers as well as nterviewing employees, the report said. Xu, who has been transferred to Beijing, is being investigated on charges of suspected insider trading, the Ministry of Public Security said, according to a report from Xinhua.
The 37-year-old Xu, revered as a legendary investor in China, managed over 10 billion yuan ($1.57 billion), a runaway success story after he reportedly dropped out of school following graduation from high school, skipping university entrance examinations in 1993 to start investing in Chinese stocks with a few thousand dollars from his parents.
Some of Zexi’s products enjoyed returns of around 250 percent, according to data on Chinese funds. Two of its star products, funds No.3 and No.1, have taken the top two slots on the Chinese performance rankings. Since news of the arrest, five of the stocks Zexi invested in tumbled by their daily limit at market open Monday.
The funds reportedly profited handsomely from China markets’ recent crash.
Amid a multi-month market meltdown, the benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped around 40 percent, falling below 4,000 points in July. That sent both domestic and foreign investors rushing for the exit, and sparked jitters in global markets. The index is currently trading around 3361.
In the wake of the crash, China’s regulators took a series of dramatic measures to boost the stock market, including large-scale share purchases, which had the unintended effect of denting confidence in the government and spurring criticism that the incident was badly mishandled.
Authorities have also intensified a market probe on alleged market manipulation, issuing penalties to stock trading platforms, as well as netting a senior official at the securities regulator, journalists and social media users.
In addition to the arrest of Xu, state-owned Xinhua news agency reported that Shanghai police are targeting two foreign nationals for allegedly manipulating the Chinese futures market to the tune of 2 billion yuan ($315 million) of illicit gains.
…
Volatility returns to China stocks: Time to worry again?
See Kit Tang | @SeeKit_T
Thu, 22 Oct ‘15 | 4:39 AM ET
CNBC.com
China market has found its footing: Huarong
A sudden late-day slump on Wednesday may have reminded investors that Chinese stocks remain a dangerous bet, but some analysts seem to think that the market is regaining its footing after a dramatic crash earlier this year.
Equity markets in China posted their biggest tumble in five weeks, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite and blue-chip CSI300 index slumping 3.5 and 2.9 percent respectively, in the previous trading session. The ChiNext - Shenzhen’s Nasdaq-style start-up board - took a bigger bruising, losing 6.5 percent.
However, mainland shares, notably small-company names, managed a comeback on Thursday. The ChiNext board surged over 4 percent, outpacing the main Shanghai Composite and CSI300 which closed up 1.5 percent each.
“Beijing has heavily bought into financial stocks and the market slowly came back to almost touch the 3,500 level yesterday before we saw a huge pullback as stocks hit key short-term resistance. But if the [Shanghai Composite] holds around 3,200 then confidence will come back,” Jackson Wong, associate director at Huarong International Securities, told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.
Wong believes that the Shanghai bourse could attempt a return to the key support level of 4,000 towards end-2015, on the back of supportive measures from the Chinese government. If the index manages to do so, “this stock crash will be over,” he said.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite fell below 4,000 points in July during the thick of the multi-month market meltdown that not only sent domestic investors rushing for the exit, but sparked jitters in global markets.
“China’s market will try to challenge 4,000 towards the end of the year after so many things that the government has been doing lately, such as [approving] infrastructure projects and moves by the central bank to add liquidity to the market. Economic data also show the economy improving so towards the end of the year, markets should do well,” Wong added.
…
For the record, I neither bet with or against the Chinese stock market. I wouldn’t touch those gambling chips with a ten foot pole.
Does it seem to anyone besides me that the ChiComs are extremely thin-skinned about their stock market? Is this due to a fear that people who lost their life savings in the recent crash might pin blame on the government?
Top News
Sun Nov 1, 2015 | 10:22 PM EST
China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly
By Xiaoyi Shao and Nicholas Heath
BEIJING (Reuters) - Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.
Adding to those concerns, China’s services sector, which has been one of the few bright spots in the economy, also showed signs of cooling last month, expanding at its slowest pace in nearly seven years.
As the first major indicators of business conditions in China released each month, the PMIs reinforced the view that the economy remains in the midst of a gradual slowdown which will require Beijing to roll out more support in coming months.
“While the PMI has stabilized, it is too early to confirm a bottoming out,” economists at ANZ Bank said in a note.
“As deflation risks intensify, a further RRR cut before end of this year is still possible,” ANZ said, referring to reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold in order to free up more funds for new loans.
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) was at 49.8 in October, the same pace as in previous month and lagging market expectations of 50.0, according to the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). A reading below 50 points suggests an contraction.
New export orders contracted for a 13th straight month, though the sub-index for new orders - a proxy for both domestic and foreign demand - edged up marginally to 50.3, compared with September’s 50.2.
Faced with persistently weak demand, factory owners continued to lay off workers and at a slightly faster pace than in September.
“Because of the recent weak recovery in the global economy and downward pressure in the domestic economy, manufacturers still face a severe import and export situation,” Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS said in a statement accompanying the data.
Major Chinese construction machinery maker Sany Heavy Industry Co Ltd said on Friday it swung to a loss in the third quarter, affected by a glut of unsold equipment.
…
Has the oil market slid out of control?
ft dot com > reports >
Energy
Management Life & Arts
November 1, 2015 9:28 am
Oil market slides out of control
Ed Crooks
All fired up: Tankers weighed down with oil sit and wait off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman
©Justine Kase/Alamy
For most of the Age of Oil, groups of producers have tried to control its price. From the 1920s, that strategy was co-ordinated by the Railroad Commission of Texas, supported by other US states and federal authorities. Then from the 1970s it was Opec, the producing countries’ cartel.
The plunge in the price of crude since the summer of 2014 has made it clear that the market has escaped anyone’s ability to control it.
A combination of technological progress, in the shape of the spectacular success of US shale oil production over the past five years, worries about the slowdown in China and other emerging economies, and a shift in strategy by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has caused a global glut of oil that sent prices tumbling by more than 50 per cent.
For now, at least, prices are being driven more by market forces than by political decisions and it is an unnerving experience for everyone concerned, from the boardrooms of Houston to the palaces of Riyadh. It is not, however, wholly unprecedented.
In the words that are apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain, “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. So, while there are no exact precedents for today’s markets, the past can provide some clues to the future.
The most recent oil price collapse came just seven years ago. The downfall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis toppled crude prices from a higher peak than in 2014 to its lowest trough. That episode turned out to be shortlived. Having dropped below $37 per barrel in December 2008, internationally traded benchmark Brent crude was back above $70 by June 2009.
…Trisha Curtis, of the Washington-based Energy Policy Research Foundation, says oil at under $50 is causing “quite serious” problems for the industry. Blithe assertions that everything seems fine ignore the fact that there is always a lag before production reflects the number of rigs drilling for oil, which has dropped 63 per cent in the past year. “It’s going to take a while,” says Ms Curtis. The shale industry is not dying, she adds, but it may be going “into hibernation”.
In other oil-producing regions, where project developments are typically multiyear and multibillion-dollar commitments, production will be slower to react to the fall in price of crude.
Philip Verleger, an energy economist, suggests Venezuela, a leading oil producer now in the grip of a severe financial crisis, could crack first, with mounting chaos in the country putting its entire 2.4m b/d of production at risk.
For those reasons, while the oil market will for a while be weighed down by near-term pressures, including the prospect of additional Iranian supply, the longer-term price trend still seems likely to be upwards, with the potential for spikes if crises erupt in Venezuela or elsewhere. Edward Morse, analyst at Citigroup, suggests a range of $60-$80 per barrel would bring supply and demand back into balance.
…
Business
Mon Nov 2, 2015 | 2:36 AM EST
Weak China data weighs on oil prices
A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma September 15, 2015.
Reuters/Nick Oxford
Weak China data weighs on oil prices
By Henning Gloystein
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped in Asian trading hours on Monday as analysts expected weaker demand from China in upcoming months, but firming Japanese economic data offered some support.
Benchmark U.S. crude futures had fallen 30 cents from their last settlement to $46.29 per barrel by 0731 GMT (2.31 a.m. EST), while internationally traded Brent futures were at $49.44 a barrel, down 12 cents.
Monday’s bearish sentiment came after gains made last week following a further decline in the U.S. oil rig count which indicated that domestic crude production could drop in coming months.
But in Asia, the possibility of slowing demand in China dominated trade on Monday, with growth faltering in the world’s No.2 economy.
“As global growth expectations contract further, low prices continue to curb our supply expectations,” Barclays bank said.
While China has so far avoided a hard landing, activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.
…